概念词典 · 产业链
InP 磷化铟衬底
制造 CPO 用的 DFB 激光器与 EML 调制器所必需的化合物半导体衬底，全球产能极其集中，是光子学的卡脖子环节。
别名： InP／ 磷化铟／ 磷化铟衬底／ indium phosphide／ indium-phosphide／ InP 衬底
是什么
Indium Phosphide (InP, 磷化铟) 是一种 III-V 族化合物半导体，是 1310nm / 1550nm 波段激光器的物理必需材料——目前没有可替代材料。CPO 和高速光通信里所有 DFB 激光器、EML 调制器、CW 激光源 都长在 InP 衬底上。
为什么是 AI 供应链最深层的卡点
整个 CPO 上游链条：
InP 衬底 → 外延生长 (epi-wafer) → 激光器晶圆 → 激光芯片 → 光引擎 → CPO 封装链条最上游的 InP 衬底，全球只有几家能做工业级 2-4 寸圆片：
- AXT $AXTI（美股）
- 住友电工 (Sumitomo, 日股)
- DOWA（日股）
- IntelliEPI（台股，做 epi 不做衬底）
需求端：每多一个 CPO 端口，多消耗 1-4 颗 InP 激光器。AI 数据中心放量 → CPO 放量 → InP 衬底必现产能瓶颈。
Serenity 的视角
这是他被称为”白毛股神”的第一战——2024 年就喊出”光子学放量必致 InP 衬底瓶颈”，重仓 $AXTI。一年多后，IntelliEPI CEO 在 2026Q1 财报里公开确认 “Indium phosphide substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure”，验证他的判断。
他原话：“Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon?”
提到此概念的推文 (236)
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LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。
$LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……
英文原文
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
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InP激光器短缺利好SIVE，可套用AAOI产能模型。
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 的时机，其年化产能收入的中位预测约为 4.27 亿美元。 鉴于近期的行业财报： > $AAOI 指出光模块（transceivers）需求存在 20-40% 的失衡（激光器是瓶颈）。 > $MTSI 表示许多“客户因磷化铟（InP）DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急联系我们”（在其他产品线中）。 > 美国提议禁止新的中国光模块（中际旭创/新易盛）。 > AOI 因激光器被分配给光模块，未实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署。 解读是：可以将适用于 $AAOI 的产能-需求吸收模型，同样应用于 Sivers 等其他激光器厂商。 鉴于 InP CW DFB 产能的广泛短缺和需求失衡。
英文原文
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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博主维持对 Win 看多，看好其 InP 激光器及硅光代工在瓶颈期的增长潜力。
@sunmingjun4 是的，我仍然对 Win (Win Semiconductors) 保持看多。在瓶颈期，他们正在上线磷化铟(InP)激光器的稀有独立产能（源自 Sivers），以及可能面向 AI 数据中心的硅光(PiC)晶圆代工服务（来自演示文稿）。我猜测其光学晶圆代工业务可能会在 2027 年起推动令人惊喜的收入增长。
英文原文
@sunmingjun4 Yep, I'm still bullish on Win. They're coming online with rare independent capacity for InP lasers (we know from Sivers) and maybe PiC foundry services (presentation slides) for AI DCs, during a time of a bottleneck. And my guess is its optical foundry might drive surprising revenue growth 2027 onward.
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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激光器及InP衬底未来2-3年或现短缺，CPO扩产加剧瓶颈。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
英文原文
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.
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博主重申看多AXTI，认为InP衬底供需失衡及瓶颈论点已获验证。
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo 我字面上和法律上都不能给你们建议。 我个人持有并仍然看多 $AXTI，因为我认为在未来2-3年内，磷化铟(InP)衬底的需求失衡状况不会消失。 我的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈论点+AI建设破坏性影响，在今年中期从路透社到其他外延晶圆(epiwafer)财报电话会议中得到了验证。 你们随意。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo I literally and legally can't give you advice. I'm personally long and still bullish on $AXTI since I don't think InP substrate demand imbalance will be going anywhere over the next 2-3 years. And my InP substrate bottleneck thesis + AI buildout disruption got validated midway through the year from Reuters to other epiwafer earnings calls. You do you
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AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
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MTSI财报证实磷化铟DFB激光器短缺，利好SIVE和LITE。
$MTSI 财报电话会议记录： “由于磷化铟分布反馈(DFB)激光器普遍供应短缺，客户正迫切地向我们寻求解决方案。” 重点在于“迫切”、“连续波(CW) DFB激光器”以及“向我们寻求”。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的连续波 DFB 概念股，听到这一激光器瓶颈得到验证应该会很高兴。
英文原文
$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.
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InP激光器产能严重不足，看好新增独立产能标的。
@_king142 $LITE 首席执行官表示，即使其 5 座磷化铟(InP)激光器晶圆厂投产，出货量仍将低于客户需求 30% 以上。（甚至比当前的内存短缺更严重） $AAOI 也表达了类似的观点，缺口在 20-40% 之间。 我猜测 InP 衬底和激光器都将成为 2027 年最严重的瓶颈之一。 这就是为什么我非常看重任何新增的独立产能，无论是 $SIVE 与 Win 的合作还是 $AAOI。
英文原文
@_king142 $LITE CEO said even as their 5 InP laser fabs come online, shipments would be 30%+ below customer demand. (and worse than the current memory shortage) $AAOI said something similiar with a 20-40% figure. My guess is that InP substrates and lasers both will be one of the most severe bottlenecks in 2027. Which is why I place a lot of value on any independent capacity that comes online whether it's $SIVE with Win or $AAOI.
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AAOI财报验证光模块需求远超供应，产能爬坡中，看好板块传导。
以下是关于 $AAOI 财报的简要要点： - 预计超大规模客户将在未来几周内完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证（有助于收入爬坡 #2，时间线） - 继续认为 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光收发器产能（在竞争对手可能被禁时期重申雄心） - 预计磷化铟(InP)产能设施将于 2027 年初投产（进一步爬坡的时间线参考） - 总产能接近每月 20 万颗/单位，年底 800G/1.6T 达 65 万颗/单位。2027 年底达 93 万颗/单位（这是我想要看到的爬坡） - “增加外部光源(ELSFP)的制造产能。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的”。我们预计今年晚些时候及 2027 年扩大生产，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万件（需要时间将其建模为收入） - “如前所述，我们多年来一直内部制造激光器。这使我们避免了影响行业其他公司的短缺”（CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看多逻辑） - 我们相信未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器的需求增加（CPO 板块论点验证） - “长期目标是将非公认会计准则毛利率恢复到 40% 左右” - “第二季度末现金等价物总计 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次确认 ATM 是否完成 - “我们交付收入的能力，特别是 800G 产品，目前受限于我们的生产能力”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能发货更多” 需求 > 供应验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，让我说，正如我一直强调的，这还不足以应对客户需求。客户需求高出 20%-40%。” 整个板块的光子学需求验证惊人，阅读 $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL 等公司的传导效应令人惊叹。 - “在未来两三年内不会，尤其是需求如此之大。好吧？即使结合 AI，$LITE, $COHR, $AVGO 加在一起，未来几年满足客户需求仍然非常困难” 更多光通信板块需求验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是 CPO 市场的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”以及“我们已与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心当前财报（我并没有仔细看） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs 0.02 美元 简而言之：激光器 + 光通信板块需求传导非凡。某种程度上支持 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能爬坡按计划进行。要映射拐点期与时间线，大约在明年年初，正如他们之前的财报电话会议所述。 AAOI 现在拥有客户。限制在于制造足够的激光器和收发器。
英文原文
Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.
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AI激光器供应危机加剧，验证AAOI等标的瓶颈逻辑。
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE 峰会上警告称，AI 数据中心（AI DCs）用磷化铟(InP)激光器的供应缺口： 正面临比存储芯片更严重的供应链危机。 凭借 Lumentum 的 5 座 InP 晶圆厂，其出货量将比客户需求低 30% 以上。 这在目前的电吸收调制激光器(EMLs)上尤为明显，但随着共封装光学(CPO)的推进，已扩展至连续波(CW)激光器。 我一直看好 $AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR 带来的激光器卡脖子+瓶颈逻辑。很高兴这一论点开始得到验证。
英文原文
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
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博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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四大云厂商上调Capex指引，看好上游半导体及AI供应链瓶颈环节重估。
作为业绩复盘：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 将 2026 年联合资本支出(Capex)指引上调至约 7200-7450 亿美元。此前指引为 6950-7250 亿美元。亚马逊：2200 亿；谷歌：1950-2050 亿；Meta：1300-1450 亿；微软：1750 亿。我们已看到显著的降杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能还会持续，谁知道呢）。但中长期来看，我不太明白为何有人看空上游半导体或新云厂商。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都指出了算力短缺、云需求上升+定价权增强，或增加芯片/网络支出。我对许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是：当数万亿美元资本流入磷化铟(InP)衬底或存储（此前均被视为廉价大宗商品）甚至能源领域时。许多此前在电信周期中被视为无用甚至“卖马桶”的当前 AI 概念股。当拐点到来且资本支出流入其资产负债表时，估值将重估。正如过去几年 $NVDA GPU、今年存储、未来几年 CPU/MLCC、2027 年共封装光学(CPO)、2027 年玻璃衬底、2027 年 800V 等所见。
英文原文
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
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亚马逊资本支出上调及算力短缺证实，AXTI 产能扩张且供不应求，看多 AI 半导体及光通信供应链。
几条财报摘要，重点是我看好的 $AXTI 和 $AMZN： 亚马逊： - 将 2026 年资本支出上调至 2200 亿美元（此前为 2000 亿美元），部分原因是内存成本上升，这对 $MU 和三星是利好。 - 即使达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊的产能仍无法满足 2026 年的所有需求；Jassy 预计 2027 年情况相同。 - 大多数 2027 年的新增产能已被预订，2028 年的大量产能也已预订。 主要浏览了上游半导体板块。$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN 和 $MSFT 均指出算力短缺。 几周前关于 Meta 等公司“算力过剩”以及超大规模云厂商削减支出的所有叙事……全是胡扯。 亚马逊财报对 AI 半导体交易非常看多。 AXTI： - AXT 计划在 2026 年将磷化铟(InP)产能翻倍，2027 年再翻倍。 - 预计这将使 AXT 成为“迄今为止全球最大的磷化铟生产商”——冲鸭。 - 第二季度营收为 4760 万美元，创 AXT 历史单季新高（来自数据中心应用的 InP 营收创纪录达 3070 万美元）。 - 营收环比增长 77%，同比增长 164%。 - InP 营收-产能目标：2026 年底每季度 6000 万美元。 - 2027 年底每季度 1.3 亿美元。 由于管理层表示他们将“寻找任何方式增加产能扩张”，1.3 亿美元的目标可能会进一步提高。 管理层称报告中的积压订单仍远高于 1 亿美元，但该数字已不能反映所有可用需求。 “无论我们增加产能的速度多快，客户需求持续超过供应。” 800G/1.6T 正在驱动当前周期，而 NPO/CPO 将其延伸至 2027 年之后。 此外，他们的目标是 50% 以上的毛利率：“我们绝对应该瞄准一个以五开头的数字。” 中国需求翻倍有余，且与 Casela、$COHR 和 $LITE 的协议并未实质性推动第二季度业绩。 这甚至还没有考虑我预测的随着 InP 衬底瓶颈加剧带来的巨大平均售价(ASP)上涨。 摘要： - 亚马逊算力需求过大，需要资本支出来满足，因此上游半导体起飞。 - AXT 是全球最大的 InP 衬底供应商，高毛利率，产能扩张，且供应跟不上需求。 看多来自亚马逊的需求端+资本支出。看多上游光通信供应链，因为需求过大。
英文原文
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
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AXTI与Lumentum签InP衬底长协，Lumentum付4350万定金预留产能。
$AXTI 与 $LITE 就磷化铟(InP)衬底签署长期协议。Lumentum 同意支付 4350 万美元定金以预留产能。https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
英文原文
$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
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野村报告指出AXTI/IQE领先，InP衬底及外延片价格大幅上涨。
野村证券的报告引用 $AXTI 和 $IQE 作为领先玩家。 关于平均售价(ASP)更新： - 2英寸磷化铟(InP)衬底价格上涨 42-76% - 3英寸 InP 衬底价格上涨 78% - 2英寸有源层(EML)外延片价格上涨 50-75% - 3英寸连续波(CW)外延片价格上涨 ~40%+ - 中国国内价格较低，如 https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A 所示
英文原文
Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A
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Sivers单季收入大增77%，光子学增长强劲，看好其未来估值。
@CFc19971622 是的？在单个季度内将你的整个收入管道增加 77% 是非常好的数据。其中大部分来自磷化铟(InP)激光器的光子学增长。如果你看未来增长，Sivers 的财报表现非常出色。估值是基于未来收益，而不是过去 12 个月的数据。
英文原文
@CFc19971622 Yes? Increasing your entire revenue pipeline by 77% in a single quarter is extremely good numbers. Majority of it was photonics growth from InP lasers. Sivers earnings were stellar if you look at forward growth. Valuations are based on future earnings, not trailing 12 months
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SIVE募资扩产InP激光器，暗示代工产能分配及供应链扩张。
$SIVE 正在筹集约 6100 万美元（6 亿瑞典克朗）以扩大磷化铟(InP)激光器和光放大器的制造产能。 Sivers 采用轻晶圆厂(fab-lite)模式，因此这可能暗示正在为跨 Jabil 及其其他合作伙伴的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器增产寻找代工产能分配/扩产。 这也可能 https://t.co/8F1cMcCxfB
英文原文
$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also https://t.co/8F1cMcCxfB
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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瑞穗研究：共封装光学(CPO)或800V直流供电均无延迟。 上调了光引擎预测，因 $NVDA 需求加速。 - 认为长期CPO下一阶段，磷铟(InP)分布反馈(DFB)激光器仍是焦点（关注 $SIVE）。垂直表面发射激光器(VSCEL)和微LED在机架内短距及芯片到芯片连接中仍“未经验证”。
英文原文
Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to
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博主回应对其研究严谨性的无端指责，重申对AXTI的调研过程。
是啊……我不太明白为什么大家喜欢随意抛出人身攻击。比如每次我发布投资论点时，就扣上“骗局”或“迷因股”的帽子。就像我买入 $AXTI 时（顺便提一下，我仍持有该股）： - 花时间梳理了磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链 - 找到了分析师信源
英文原文
Yeah... I'm not quite sure why everyone likes just throwing personal accusations. Like "scam" or "memestock" every time I post a thesis. Like when I bought $AXTI (still holding shares btw): - spent the time mapping the InP substrate supply chain - found analyst sources
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IQE与Tower Semi签约，印证其在西方光学供应链中的关键地位。
哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签署了一项多年的磷化铟(InP)外延片协议。还记得我在 $12 时告诉过大家 IQE 对西方光学供应链的重要性吗？$MTSI 曾不得不费尽周折以确保从 IQE 获得供应。现在又有了与 Tower Semi 的关键交易。
英文原文
Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi.
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特朗普政策利好，看好功率半导体、光学及太空板块个股。
没错，看空确实非常愚蠢。特朗普正在竭尽全力在中期选举前提振市场。此外，你的 $WOLF 功率半导体组合应该会因 800V 直流电(800 VDC)加速而暴涨。$LITE 光学组合应该会因磷化铟(InP)供应缓解而暴涨。$SPCX 成功上市(IPO)带来了更多热情。
英文原文
Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to
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今天有一份新报告称，中国放宽了磷化铟(InP)衬底的出口限制。据Digitimes报道，这有望缓解光子学市场的大规模生产瓶颈。我的光学持仓对此感到非常高兴：从$AXTI（衬底）、$IQE（外延片）到$AAOI。
英文原文
Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports. Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes) My optical positions are very happy to hear this: From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI
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说明这是用于InP衬底的赤磷。
回复 @GabrielNeo9：这是用于 InP 衬底的赤磷。
英文原文
@GabrielNeo9 This is red phosphorus for InP substrates
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中文长文：用主观判断押注InP等瓶颈，关键在预判技术架构演进。
中文社区又出了一篇佳作！ 当我发现像磷化铟（InP）衬底这样的产业链瓶颈或关键节点时，我通常会凭主观判断来进行操作。 这在很大程度上取决于能否准确预判下一次的技术架构演进！ 尤其是去年，当所有人都在说光技术还为时过早、铜互连不会被取代时，我果断做多了光通信供应链。
英文原文
中文社区又出了一篇佳作！ 当我发现像磷化铟（InP）衬底这样的产业链瓶颈或关键节点时，我通常会凭主观判断来进行操作。 这在很大程度上取决于能否准确预判下一次的技术架构演进！ 尤其是去年，当所有人都在说光技术还为时过早、铜互连不会被取代时，我果断做多了光通信供应链。
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中文：若不能说出光通信全产业链说明还需多读，其观点帮助读者建立逻辑。
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的 InP（磷化铟）衬底， 一路向下到光模块成品制造商…… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
英文原文
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
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批评媒体缺乏技术背景却自信评价CW激光和InP护城河。
媒体里突然涌入这么多艺术史大学毕业生是怎么回事： 带着100%确定性进来， 发表他们对 CW 激光细节，以及 InP 衬底/坩埚加工护城河估值分析的看法？ 如果你懂东西，背景真的不重要。但如果你不懂……
英文原文
What’s with the influx of art history college grads in media: Coming in with 100% certainty: With their opinion of CW laser nuances and valuation analysis on InP substrate/crucible processing moats? Background genuinely don’t matter if you know your stuff. But if you don’t,
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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复盘AXTI和InP衬底从15美元被质疑到成为分析师报告瓶颈。
回复 @doomdayer：谢谢！是的，当 $AXTI 和 InP 衬底还在15美元时，和那些毫无知识的随机散户争论总是很有趣。 然后它现在刚好出现在你们所有高盛/摩根大通分析师报告里，被列为瓶颈。
英文原文
@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge. Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.