· 供应链分析
相关概念： CPO 共封装光学InP 磷化铟衬底Pluggable 可插拔光模块
非常积极。我的观点是，近期光模块板块从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE 的跑输表现简直荒谬。 需求可见性……简直高得愚蠢。 AOI：“即使合并 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目，未来三年（至2029年）仍很难满足客户需求。” Elazr 总经理：“整个光供应链正面临严重短缺。”“短缺将持续到未来几年。” Sivers CEO 对磷化铟(InP)激光器需求失衡的说法相同，预计未来3-5年持续。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他评论可以列举更多。 我们甚至还没触及 1.6T、NPO、共封装光学(CPO)规模化以及光存一体（如 SK Hynix 所示）的拐点。 然而行业已受限于 EML/CW 及 PD/TIA/DSP、收发器等上游组件，随着 CPO 规模化，FAU 等也将成为瓶颈…… 我个人对这一切的发展感到极度舒适，只是有点困惑市场为何不会算未来一两年的账。
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.