概念词典 · 技术
Pluggable 可插拔光模块
主流数据中心使用的标准化光纤收发模块，800G/1.6T 是当前主战场，是 CPO 时代到来之前的过渡技术。
别名： Pluggable／ pluggable optics／ pluggable transceiver／ 可插拔光模块／ 光模块／ transceiver
是什么
Pluggable Optics（可插拔光模块） 是当前数据中心光通信的主流方案：
[ASIC / 交换机] → 电信号 → [PCB 板] → [可插拔光模块] → 光信号 → 光纤
↑
插槽里可热插拔的标准模块主流规格：
- 400G：上一代主流，2024 年大量部署
- 800G：当前主战场，AI 数据中心标配
- 1.6T：2025-2026 量产，CPO 时代的前夜
- 3.2T 以上：必须走 CPO 路线
玩家分布
| 公司 | 地位 |
|---|---|
| $COHR Coherent | 全球老大，CPO 同样领先 |
| $LITE Lumentum | 老牌光模块巨头 |
| $AAOI Applied Optoelectronics | 中等规模 |
| $FN Fabrinet | 代工厂，几乎给所有人做 |
| $CIEN Ciena | 系统集成 |
| InnoLight / Eoptolink（中股） | 中国代工巨头 |
与 CPO 的关系
可插拔光模块是 过渡技术。Serenity 反复说明：
“Pluggable 是现在的现金牛，CPO 是 2027-2028 才放量的下一代。
重仓 pluggable 龙头是吃眼前的钱，重仓 CPO 上游是赌下一波。”
他对 pluggable 板块的态度：
- 看好龙头如 $COHR（pluggable + CPO 双吃）
- 警惕单一 pluggable 玩家如 $AAOI（被 CPO 替代风险）
- 看好 pluggable 上游代工 $FN（不管哪家赢都要找它做）
时间线
- 2025：800G 主流出货
- 2026：1.6T 开始放量
- 2027：3.2T 出现，Pluggable / CPO 路线分叉
- 2028-2030：CPO 抢占增量，pluggable 维持存量
提到此概念的推文 (183)
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LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。
$LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……
英文原文
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
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AAOI产能受限，优先自供激光器，CPO部署短期承压。
@Berlinergy $AAOI：“我们根本无法生产足够的[共封装光学(CPO)激光器]来满足其当前第一代[CPO]部署的需求，因为产能确实不足。我们必须优先确保为自家光模块生产激光器。”这仅适用于早期CPO相关部署的初步解读。
英文原文
@Berlinergy $AAOI: "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" This is just for early CPO related deployment read through.
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AAOI 多技术周期叠加，2028 年 CPO 产能将带来巨大增量。
给那些认为 $AAOI 只是单年周期股的人提个醒： $AAOI 预计其用于共封装光学(CPO) 的 ELSFP 产能将在 2028 年达到每月 40 万片。 40 万 * ~$400 ELS 平均售价(ASP，高盛假设) = 新增约 19.2 亿美元/年的年化营收产能，作为一条全新且独立（毛利率 >50%）的产品线。 这叠加在他们现有的 2027 年预测之上（例如，下半年起月营收 4.71 亿美元，对应年化光模块营收约 56 亿美元）。 1.6T 的潜在市场(TAM) 也在飙升，所以我预计随着更多产能上线，他们 2027 年下半年的预测值会进一步上调... 对于某些光通信标的，这是一个周期（例如 1.6T、CPO 规模化、NPO 等）叠加在另一个周期之上... 再叠加另一个... 随着 TAM 和利润率像《英雄联盟》中艾尼维亚使用 W 技能后的小精灵一样层层堆叠。 而不是仅仅依靠单一年份的“一次性”爆发。 这与某些其他板块形成鲜明对比，那些板块在经历可能仅一年的三位数同比营收增长后，增长可能会放缓。
英文原文
Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.
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光模块供需失衡且产能售罄，预计LITE财报强劲并作为行业风向标。
@00m00oo 我认为从 $AAOI 的财报中我们已经得到了太多关于光模块(Optical Transceivers)需求存在20-40%失衡以及激光器(Lasers)成为瓶颈的暗示。 而且 $POET 在其年度股东大会(AGM)上表示，未来两年三大云厂商的产能已完全售罄。 我通常不做财报涨跌预测，因为那大多时候就像抛硬币一样随机。但我可以说，除非有非常意外的情况，否则大部分定价调整在财报发布前就已经发生。 无论如何，我预计 $LITE 的财报会非常强劲，我主要将其作为其他激光器厂商的参考指标(read-through)。
英文原文
@00m00oo I think we already got too many hints from $AAOI earnings about demand 20-40% imbalance for optical transivers with lasers as a bottleneck. And $POET stating big 3 are completely sold out of capacity next 2 years during their AGM. I don’t give earnings up or down predictions since it’s a coin flip most of the time. But I can say that a lot of pricing happens before earnings, unless there’s something very unexpected. Regardless I expect $LITE earnings to come out really strong, and I primary use it as a read through for your other laser players.
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OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
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看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
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InP激光器短缺利好SIVE，可套用AAOI产能模型。
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 的时机，其年化产能收入的中位预测约为 4.27 亿美元。 鉴于近期的行业财报： > $AAOI 指出光模块（transceivers）需求存在 20-40% 的失衡（激光器是瓶颈）。 > $MTSI 表示许多“客户因磷化铟（InP）DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急联系我们”（在其他产品线中）。 > 美国提议禁止新的中国光模块（中际旭创/新易盛）。 > AOI 因激光器被分配给光模块，未实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署。 解读是：可以将适用于 $AAOI 的产能-需求吸收模型，同样应用于 Sivers 等其他激光器厂商。 鉴于 InP CW DFB 产能的广泛短缺和需求失衡。
英文原文
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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博主总结华尔街看空AI股的六大通用话术模板。
我梳理了华尔街针对AI概念股的空头剧本全集： 请在下方填入你熟悉的机构/媒体常引用的名称： 1. < ______ [GPU(图形处理器)、光模块、MLCC(多层陶瓷电容)、存储...] 是即将崩盘的 commoditized(大宗商品化) 产品 > 2. < ______ [长存、长鑫、东山精密...] 等中国厂商将淹没市场 > 3. < ______ [美光、英伟达...] 据不可靠的渠道检查正面临问题 > 4. < ______ [韩综指、Sivers...] 是像 ____ [2007、2021] 年崩盘一样的泡沫 > 5. < 今年将有 ____ [1,2,3...] 次意外的加息 > 6. < _____ [谷歌、英伟达、Deepseek...] 的优化消除了对此的需求！> 填入新标题，这就准备就绪了！
英文原文
I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names: Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below: 1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash> 2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market > 3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues > 4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash> 5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year> 6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!> in a new headline, and it's ready to go!
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看好SIVE激光资产潜力，预期其分拆光模块业务并上市。
@vas_203 呃，鉴于其激光资产极具吸引力，我不希望 $SIVE 被收购。因为我看到它有潜力成为下一个 $LITE。 老实说，剥离出光引擎(OE)解决方案、完整的光收发器业务，或者类似从一家陷入困境的私营初创公司中分拆出来的业务，可能会很有趣。 我猜测这会在未来几个季度纳斯达克上市之后发生。我认为CEO知道该怎么做，所以我只是一路跟随。
英文原文
@vas_203 Uhh I don’t want $SIVE to be acquired given how attractive their laser assets are. Since I see potential for them end up as the next $LITE. Honestly carving out OE solutions complete optical transceiver business or something similar that’s distressed from a private startup might be interesting. My guess is it comes after Nasdaq listing within next few quarters or so. I think the CEO knows what to do, so I’m just tagging along for the ride.
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Sivers需向下游拓展以扩大市场，因向下游比向上游更容易。
@homeboyrichie 目前确实如此，因为 Lumilens 拥有直接的超大规模客户和数十亿美元的采购协议。而 $SIVE 是一家上游激光器供应商。Sivers 需要向下游拓展，通过销售光引擎、ELS 或像 $LITE 在并购 Cloud Light 后那样销售完整的光模块，以捕获更大的总可服务市场(TAM)。我的观点是，鉴于合格的激光器供应商数量有限，向下游拓展比向上游更容易。
英文原文
@homeboyrichie For now yes, because Lumilens has a direct hyperscaler customer and multi-billion dollar purchase agreements. While $SIVE is an upstream laser supplier. Sivers needs to work its way downstream to capture more TAM with selling optical engines, ELS, or complete optical transceivers like $LITE did after M&A eg. Cloud Light. My opinion is that it’s easier to move downstream than upstream as you seen with the limited amount of qualified laser suppliers out there.
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@pjtesus 这是因为 $AAOI 的 800G/1.6T 光模块（optical transceivers）已经存在巨大的 20-40% 供需失衡…… 他们无法生产足够的产品来满足需求。这是一件好事。 但无法满足所有需求，意味着较小的共封装光学(CPO) 激光器玩家存在市场机会。
英文原文
@pjtesus It's because $AAOI already has a massive 20-40% demand imbalance for their 800G/1.6T optical transceivers... They can't make enough to satisfy demand. That's a positive thing. But not being able to fulfill all demand, means there's market opportunities for smaller CPO laser players.
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AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
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AAOI财报验证光模块需求远超供应，产能爬坡中，看好板块传导。
以下是关于 $AAOI 财报的简要要点： - 预计超大规模客户将在未来几周内完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证（有助于收入爬坡 #2，时间线） - 继续认为 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光收发器产能（在竞争对手可能被禁时期重申雄心） - 预计磷化铟(InP)产能设施将于 2027 年初投产（进一步爬坡的时间线参考） - 总产能接近每月 20 万颗/单位，年底 800G/1.6T 达 65 万颗/单位。2027 年底达 93 万颗/单位（这是我想要看到的爬坡） - “增加外部光源(ELSFP)的制造产能。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的”。我们预计今年晚些时候及 2027 年扩大生产，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万件（需要时间将其建模为收入） - “如前所述，我们多年来一直内部制造激光器。这使我们避免了影响行业其他公司的短缺”（CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看多逻辑） - 我们相信未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器的需求增加（CPO 板块论点验证） - “长期目标是将非公认会计准则毛利率恢复到 40% 左右” - “第二季度末现金等价物总计 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次确认 ATM 是否完成 - “我们交付收入的能力，特别是 800G 产品，目前受限于我们的生产能力”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能发货更多” 需求 > 供应验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，让我说，正如我一直强调的，这还不足以应对客户需求。客户需求高出 20%-40%。” 整个板块的光子学需求验证惊人，阅读 $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL 等公司的传导效应令人惊叹。 - “在未来两三年内不会，尤其是需求如此之大。好吧？即使结合 AI，$LITE, $COHR, $AVGO 加在一起，未来几年满足客户需求仍然非常困难” 更多光通信板块需求验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是 CPO 市场的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”以及“我们已与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心当前财报（我并没有仔细看） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs 0.02 美元 简而言之：激光器 + 光通信板块需求传导非凡。某种程度上支持 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能爬坡按计划进行。要映射拐点期与时间线，大约在明年年初，正如他们之前的财报电话会议所述。 AAOI 现在拥有客户。限制在于制造足够的激光器和收发器。
英文原文
Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.
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禁令利好西方光模块厂商，AAOI等1.6T+玩家受益。
@Lseperlee 对我来说，$AAOI 是 2027 年上半年末的放量玩家，因为大约那时他们将达到每月 4.71 亿美元营收预测的拐点。近期起草的禁止英诺赛科(Innolight)等公司新光模块的光模块禁令，增加了 $AAOI、$SIVE/$JBL、$LITE、$COHR 等公司在 1.6T+ 项目上的权重。尤其是如果该禁令在 2026 年最终确定。由于可能会出现价格上涨，且需求将更集中于少数西方玩家产能。
英文原文
@Lseperlee $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.
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OE Solutions 研发垂直整合 1.6T 光模块，但处于早期阶段。
@NoKorea_YesUSA OE Solutions 正在开发具有内部 EML/CW 技术的垂直整合 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T Optical Transceivers)。但与其他公司相比，它仍处于早期阶段。
英文原文
@NoKorea_YesUSA OE Solutions is developing vertically integrated 1.6T optical transceivers with in-house EML/CW. But its early stage compared to the others.
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特朗普拟禁中国光模块，利好西方供应链分化。
西方供应链迎来了一个非常实质性的催化剂，涉及 $AAOI、$SIVE/Jabil、$LITE 和 Coherent：特朗普政府正在起草一项禁令，禁止新的中国光模块(Optical Transceivers)和直流(DC)设备。这可能会打击中国的中际旭创(Innolight)、新易盛(Eoptolink)以及其他中国光互连(Optical Interconnect)供应链。“该机构将禁止所有新型光模块的进口，然后豁免许多非中国供应商的限制。”我们可能会看到供应链出现更大的分化，西方玩家的重要性将进一步提升。
英文原文
A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent: The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices. Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconnect supply chains. "The agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models and then exempt many non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions" We'll likely see a larger bifurcation of supply chains with even greater importance put on Western players.
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SIVE CEO称可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO为行业方向，激光器产能是瓶颈。
不完全适用于 $AAOI（他们也在研发共封装光学(CPO)，只是商业化进度稍落后）。 最近有一档名为“市场洞察：光子学与AI”的播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO。 最有趣的观点是： “可插拔光模块在未来10年仍将存在”。 近期有很多关于CPO和RNG/MRC优化将蚕食可插拔模块总可寻址市场(TAM)的论点，但看来可插拔模块将长期存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径并行（CEO也表示，除了CPO，非平面光学(NPO)在未来5年也是主要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram表示，制造产能和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。这可能指的是上游连续波(CW)激光器扩产面临的现有瓶颈。 从播客来看，重点似乎放在可插拔市场，因为其短期TAM更大（考虑到 $JBL 和其他玩家，这可以理解），而CPO则是行业发展的北极星指标。 因此，如果 $SIVE 能通过并购获取更多可插拔光收发器IP（就像 $LITE 收购Cloud Light那样），可能会很有趣。 但简而言之： 未来路径多样，可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO似乎是行业发展的北极星方向。 感觉鉴于行业需求增长速度快于所有供应商的集体产能，合格的激光器供应商都有生存空间。
英文原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
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AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
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高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
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SIVE轻晶圆厂产能模型显示高毛利潜力，CW瓶颈加剧利好，看好其CPO地位及并购上行空间。
很多人对 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi 等）进行产能爬坡建模感到好奇： 假设使用 Win 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端配置（65% 良率假设，$50-$75 ASP）： Sivers 将支撑 $3.41 亿-$5.12 亿的年度阵列营收。鉴于管理层 50-60%+ 毛利率目标的上限，大致为： $2.05 亿-$3.07 亿的年度毛利润。 相对于 Sivers 当前约 $11 亿的市场资本化，若此产能情景在 2028 年实现，约为： 3.6–5.4 倍 市值/毛利润。 若按 15% 计算，毛利润为 $3.07 亿-$4.61 亿（2.4–3.6 倍 市值/毛利润）。 Sivers CEO 也回复称他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以获取产能。从旧版演示文稿看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的资格认证。 因此，随着共封装光学(CPO) 的兴起，产能目标可能比此处陈述的更大。 我也预计未来季度营收管道预测将上调，因为更多合格供应商进入大规模量产(HVM)。 _ 至于需求端，连续波(CW) 激光器也非常瓶颈。 Lumentum 因 ER 财报电话会议中的外延面激光二极管(EML) 义务，正在公开市场购买 CW 激光器。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议(LTA) 以锁定 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET 等合作爬坡时... 鉴于当前的限制，任何上线的独立合格产能很可能被吸收。 锦上添花的是，摩根士丹利将 $SIVE (~$11 亿) 列为三大领先 CPO 激光器玩家之一。 与其近期笔记中 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，是有原因的... _ 总结：Sivers 仅需 Win 的低端配置，相对于当前估值即可产生可观的毛利润。 我认为最大的未建模营收上行空间在于美国纳斯达克上市后的 TAM 扩张与并购。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的剧本，构建整个收发器模块或光引擎。
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Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
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存储与光模块基本面强劲，但市场反直觉抛售。
@michaelsikand 下季度DRAM涨价20%+，$SNDK与$META签长期协议，$MU签16+长期协议。市场：继续抛售存储股。800G光模块需求大幅上调？激光器售罄至2029年初？市场：抛售光电子和激光公司。
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@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
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AEHR暗示硅光子学扩产，若明确CPO则Msscorps受益。
@JJJJJ_66666 情况很微妙，$AEHR 的暗示更多是指向更广泛的硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)相关产能爬坡。这可能包括 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块，或共封装光学(CPO)。如果他们直接点名 CPO，Msscorps 将是一个非常清晰的受益标的。它最近因延迟说法遭受重创（即使...
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@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
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@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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AMZN回应AAOI看空报告，称已对网络优化建模。
关于 $AMZN RNG 与 OpenAI 的 MRC 及 VCSEL 技术。这似乎是对 B. Riley 发布的 $AAOI 卖出报告的一种间接回应，该报告称优化措施“使网络扁平化并削减光收发器 TAM 40-50%”。Rosenblatt 的要点是：他们已对此建模，尽管每个 XPU...
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Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU https://t.co/A41ceTqKwJ
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建议通过合作伙伴JBL的LRO认证进度来映射SIVE的业务进展。
@Emre07465060084 对于这种与 $SIVE 相关的映射，查看其合作伙伴及其时间表是个好主意。 - $JBL 通过摩根大通(JPM)壁炉边访谈确认，他们在 1.6T 长距光模块(LRO)方面拥有相对显著的护城河，并且正在进行的资格认证将在未来 1-4 个月内完成（2 个月前）。所以应该是 https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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SemiAnalysis因唱空CPO引发暴跌遭反驳，随后推出光子ETF。
成为 SemiAnalysis： - 发布一篇猛烈抨击共封装光学(CPO)延迟及光模块公司估值的文章，引发暴跌。 - 遭到 $NVDA、分析师团队及主要光模块公司的反驳。 - 在光模块股下跌40-60%后，推出机构级光子学ETF。
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Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.
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@CFc19971622 你傻吗？ 1. $JBL 大规模生产 1.6T LRO 是营收。 2. O-Net 大规模生产 ELS 是营收。 3. $GFS 使用 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心的参考激光器是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA NVLink 用于共封装光学(CPO) 并使用 $SIVE 进行大规模生产是营收。 5. 其他可插拔
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@CFc19971622 Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable
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马斯克收购光网络初创Mesh，分析其光引擎自研及激光器外采供应链。
$SPCX / 埃隆·马斯克收购了 Mesh，一家光网络初创公司。 该公司正在研发 1.6T OSFP（可插拔）光模块。 看来他们拥有光引擎/封装方面的技术，但很可能从商业公司采购连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器。 $SIVE 是对初创公司更友好的供应商之一 https://t.co/A1H7Bd6ZU4
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$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly https://t.co/A1H7Bd6ZU4
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博主澄清对SIVE极度看好，列举其CPO及高速光模块业务优势。
哦，我觉得你误解了……随着价格下跌，我实际上比以往任何时候都更看好。$SIVE 市值约 19 亿美元，你拥有：- $GFS 参考激光器 - 用于 Ayar 等公司在 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中进行共封装光学(CPO)规模扩展的激光器 - $POET 等用于 CPO 规模扩展 - $JBL 等用于 1.6T+ 速率
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oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+