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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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博主认为苹果AI意外之财很有趣
@jukan05 是的，关于期限的观点很合理。我只是觉得 $AAPL 的 AI 意外之财(AI windfall)相当有趣。https://t.co/ki0Wp3X6YD
英文原文
@jukan05 Yep, reasonable point on the duration. I just found $AAPL AI windfall to be pretty amusing. https://t.co/ki0Wp3X6YD
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对比苹果与树莓派在AI供应链中的角色，质疑苹果被动获利。
$AAPL 现在显然是一家重要的 AI 公司了？ -> “OpenAI 囤积数万台 Apple Mac mini 和 Mac Studio”用于强化学习 -> Anthropic 正从 $AMZN 租赁 Apple Mac mini 单元以完成类似的 AI 任务 我从未见过一家公司通过“什么都不做”就能赢得如此彻底。 但每当我看到 Apple + AI，我就会想到我挚爱的 $RPI。据悉，Anthropic 自 27 日起正在与 Raspberry Pi 合作，为其新模型制定硬件标准。 目前尚无关于 Anthropic/OpenAI 购买 Raspberry Pi 设备用于类似任务的消息，但也许某些开源情报(OSINT)研究者可以深入挖掘一下。
英文原文
$AAPL is now an important AI company apparently? -> "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of Apple Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning -> Anthropic is renting Apple Mac mini units from $AMZN to complete similar AI tasks I've never seen a company win so hard by doing nothing. But whenever I see Apple + AI, I think of my beloved $RPI. Apparently Anthropic is working with Raspberry Pi now for their new model Hardware Standard, as of the 27th. There's nothing yet about Anthropic/OpenAI buying Raspberry Pi devices for similar tasks, but maybe some OSINT researcher can do some digging.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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美政府劝苹果弃购中国存储，CXMT/YMTC涨价打破廉价印象。
美国政府敦促 $AAPL 不要购买中国存储芯片。 $MU、$SKHY 和三星听到这个消息很高兴…… 颇具讽刺意味的是，长鑫存储(CXMT)/长江存储(YMTC)也在涨价，所以这并非“充斥市场的廉价中国存储芯片”。 在人工智能繁荣之前，苹果曾经拥有极强的供应商议价能力。
英文原文
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips. $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this... Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market". Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.
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主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。
@highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。
英文原文
@highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.
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推测苹果为求自力更生将增加AI资本支出，超出市场预期。
@SVTrivo 关于 $AAPL 正在采购哪些公司，目前尚无泄露消息。无论如何，我猜测在经历了 $GOOGL 和 $META 与 OpenAI 的事件后，他们正试图变得更加自力更生。这将预示着人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)的增加，而市场绝对没有预期到像苹果这样的公司会有此举。
英文原文
@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying. Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI. Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.
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猜测AI推理领域标的，指出苹果手握巨额现金。
@shopaholicdivas 也许是像 Sambanova 或其他推理(inference)公司之类的，这是我的猜测。 $AAPL 目前坐拥绝对的巨额现金储备(warchest)。
英文原文
@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess. $AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.
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苹果或并购AI芯片公司并大幅上调资本支出，利好光网络及代工。
$AAPL 看起来打算收购 AI 芯片公司来运行 AI（来源：The Information）。目前，$MSFT、$META、Amazon、Google 正在承担 AI 资本支出。但如果苹果在并购后加入其他公司呢？一种可能的场景是，他们大幅上调资本支出以建设自己的 AI 基础设施。因为他们可能目睹了 Google 因算力限制切断 Meta 的情况……或者当你与 OpenAI 合作开发大语言模型时会发生什么。然后他们意识到拥有自己的基础设施有多么重要。从光学网络到晶圆代工厂，这一场景在主题上会相当看多，而且是市场意想不到的？让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.
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OpenAI构建独立生态激怒七巨头，被视为真正的颠覆者。
这是一个逆向观点，但如果 Sam Altman / OpenAI 能激怒包括 $AAPL 在内的所有“七巨头(Mag7)”，说明他们做对了什么。他们正在构建自己的生态系统，而不是被卷入另一个生态。自 $GOOGL、苹果、微软等公司以来，已经很久没有出现过真正的颠覆者了。
英文原文
Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
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三星业绩超预期却遭市场抛售，反映市场对其涨价可持续性的担忧。
扮演市值1.24万亿美元的三星： > 市场：我们认为你们无法继续上调存储芯片价格 > 随后将DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）价格上涨20% > 发布财报 > 成为全球最赚钱的公司，超越 $NVDA 和 $AAPL > 营业利润同比增长1803% 市场：抛售三星，股价下跌7%。
英文原文
Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%
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特朗普宣布苹果英特尔合作，博主调侃其硬扛英特尔股价。
特朗普宣布英特尔(Intel)与苹果(Apple)达成合作，今日 $INTC 股价上涨 8%。据报道，英特尔高管对特朗普宣布的 $AAPL 合作感到惊讶。说实话，总统现在应该领导英特尔的市场团队。感觉是他一个人在硬扛这支股票。
英文原文
Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.
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认为搭载NVDA硬件的微软PC有机会挑战苹果，但Windows UI太差。
热观点：考虑到 $MSFT 笔记本/PC 现在很可能使用 $NVDA 硬件。 他们也许有机会击败 $AAPL。 前提是 Windows OS UI 不要和 Apple OS 的干净程度相比像一堆燃烧的垃圾。 你会以为一家3万亿美元公司到现在应该更懂 UI 设计了？
英文原文
Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
英文原文
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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高信念SIVE：伯克利+LITE团队、22%博士、CHIPS和潜在客户验证IP护城河。
我之前说过，我对 $SIVE 有高信念。 我相信它们来自 UC Berkeley + $LITE 的高管团队知道该收购什么 IP。因为它们从一开始就与 Ayar 等公司合作。 另外，公司22%的员工是博士也有帮助，整个团队都很强。 CHIPS Act，以及从 $NOK 到 $AAPL 的这些潜在合作，也给它们建立的 IP 护城河带来大量可信度。 它们之前只是缺资金，直到最近市场开始关注 Sivers。但我非常想看看它们从这里能做什么。
英文原文
I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.
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Apple Watch 2026下半年健康监测升级或用TASC光电二极管，后续无创血糖监测可能关联SIVE激光。
这只是对时间线的确认： 2026年下半年是高端 Apple Watch 的“重大重新设计”，用于血压相关功能，使用 TASC 光电二极管（2340）。 下一部分可能是 $SIVE 与 $AAPL 的项目： “此后，Apple 的下一项健康监测能力预计将聚焦无创血糖监测。” 所以……下一轮更新很可能是 Sivers 的高度定制激光，也许在2027年下半年或2028年。 仍然有点早，但如果时间线/含义保持完整，市场可能会重视 Apple 带来的多年收入可见度。
英文原文
This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.
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TASC 2340可能是高端Apple Watch新供应商。
5亿美元市值的 $AAPL 供应商，很可能是新款高端 Apple Watch 的主要来源： 如果有人想看或好奇，TASC（2340）。我大概会跳过，但这里可能有些有趣东西。
英文原文
$500m $AAPL supplier likely primary source for their new high end apple watches: TASC (2340) if people wanted to take a look or were curious. I'm prob passing, but could be something interesting here https://t.co/lE6iyswXyT
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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无KRUS持仓，但称其是较好的餐饮股之一。
回复 @Mr_Derivatives：我没有 $KRUS 持仓，但有趣的是，它是比较好的餐饮名字之一。 在 $AAPL 总部附近 Cupertino 那家总是排1小时队。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives I have no positions in $KRUS but it's one of the better restaurant names hilariously enough. There's always a 1 hour line in the Cupertino one near $AAPL HQ.
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称Cupertino Kura Sushi很受欢迎，并同意特朗普逢低买入愿景。
它真的很受欢迎，我以前常去 $AAPL 总部附近的加州 Cupertino 那家，总是排1小时队。 听说它们在 Berkeley 等地也开了一些……所以我确实同意 Trump 认为这里是不错逢低买入点的愿景。 也许他退休后想接管并经营一家寿司餐厅？
英文原文
It's really popular, I used to go to the CA Cupertino near $AAPL HQ and there was always a 1 hour line. Heard they opened some up around Berkeley and others... so I do agree with Trump's vision of it being a good dip buy around here. Maybe after he retires, he wants to taken over and run a sushi restaurant?
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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感谢对 AAPL 和 INTC 相关消息的提示
@DrNHJ 对，谢谢你提醒我关于 $AAPL 和 $INTC 的新闻。
英文原文
@DrNHJ Yep! Thanks for the news regarding $AAPL and $INTC.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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认为SIVE估值被低估，重点关注管理层对CPO激光产量爬坡指引。
我个人认为 $SIVE 今天应该值 $30亿，明年最终会达到 $100亿以上。 财报其实不重要。我只关心管理层关于激光产量爬坡的指示，用于两个共封装光学(CPO)项目（$JBL 和可能的 $AAPL 硅光子学项目）。
英文原文
@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.