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认为搭载NVDA硬件的微软PC有机会挑战苹果，但Windows UI太差。
热观点：考虑到 $MSFT 笔记本/PC 现在很可能使用 $NVDA 硬件。 他们也许有机会击败 $AAPL。 前提是 Windows OS UI 不要和 Apple OS 的干净程度相比像一堆燃烧的垃圾。 你会以为一家3万亿美元公司到现在应该更懂 UI 设计了？
英文原文
Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
英文原文
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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高信念SIVE：伯克利+LITE团队、22%博士、CHIPS和潜在客户验证IP护城河。
我之前说过，我对 $SIVE 有高信念。 我相信它们来自 UC Berkeley + $LITE 的高管团队知道该收购什么 IP。因为它们从一开始就与 Ayar 等公司合作。 另外，公司22%的员工是博士也有帮助，整个团队都很强。 CHIPS Act，以及从 $NOK 到 $AAPL 的这些潜在合作，也给它们建立的 IP 护城河带来大量可信度。 它们之前只是缺资金，直到最近市场开始关注 Sivers。但我非常想看看它们从这里能做什么。
英文原文
I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.
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Apple Watch 2026下半年健康监测升级或用TASC光电二极管，后续无创血糖监测可能关联SIVE激光。
这只是对时间线的确认： 2026年下半年是高端 Apple Watch 的“重大重新设计”，用于血压相关功能，使用 TASC 光电二极管（2340）。 下一部分可能是 $SIVE 与 $AAPL 的项目： “此后，Apple 的下一项健康监测能力预计将聚焦无创血糖监测。” 所以……下一轮更新很可能是 Sivers 的高度定制激光，也许在2027年下半年或2028年。 仍然有点早，但如果时间线/含义保持完整，市场可能会重视 Apple 带来的多年收入可见度。
英文原文
This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.
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TASC 2340可能是高端Apple Watch新供应商。
5亿美元市值的 $AAPL 供应商，很可能是新款高端 Apple Watch 的主要来源： 如果有人想看或好奇，TASC（2340）。我大概会跳过，但这里可能有些有趣东西。
英文原文
$500m $AAPL supplier likely primary source for their new high end apple watches: TASC (2340) if people wanted to take a look or were curious. I'm prob passing, but could be something interesting here https://t.co/lE6iyswXyT
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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无KRUS持仓，但称其是较好的餐饮股之一。
回复 @Mr_Derivatives：我没有 $KRUS 持仓，但有趣的是，它是比较好的餐饮名字之一。 在 $AAPL 总部附近 Cupertino 那家总是排1小时队。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives I have no positions in $KRUS but it's one of the better restaurant names hilariously enough. There's always a 1 hour line in the Cupertino one near $AAPL HQ.
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称Cupertino Kura Sushi很受欢迎，并同意特朗普逢低买入愿景。
它真的很受欢迎，我以前常去 $AAPL 总部附近的加州 Cupertino 那家，总是排1小时队。 听说它们在 Berkeley 等地也开了一些……所以我确实同意 Trump 认为这里是不错逢低买入点的愿景。 也许他退休后想接管并经营一家寿司餐厅？
英文原文
It's really popular, I used to go to the CA Cupertino near $AAPL HQ and there was always a 1 hour line. Heard they opened some up around Berkeley and others... so I do agree with Trump's vision of it being a good dip buy around here. Maybe after he retires, he wants to taken over and run a sushi restaurant?
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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感谢对 AAPL 和 INTC 相关消息的提示
@DrNHJ 对，谢谢你提醒我关于 $AAPL 和 $INTC 的新闻。
英文原文
@DrNHJ Yep! Thanks for the news regarding $AAPL and $INTC.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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认为SIVE估值被低估，重点关注管理层对CPO激光产量爬坡指引。
我个人认为 $SIVE 今天应该值 $30亿，明年最终会达到 $100亿以上。 财报其实不重要。我只关心管理层关于激光产量爬坡的指示，用于两个共封装光学(CPO)项目（$JBL 和可能的 $AAPL 硅光子学项目）。
英文原文
@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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SIVE 不打算卖
我的意思是，$SIVE 是一只我不打算卖出的股票。 光子学的 TAM 对 AI、机器人、消费电子硬件（比如 $AAPL）和太空领域来说都大得离谱…… 而且 Sivers 正好站在下一代架构的最前沿，也是少数几家公开交易的龙头之一，另外两家大概是 $LITE 和 $COHR。 再加上下游 IP 收购，TAM 扩张也会非常大。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling. Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space... And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR. TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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SIVE 可能是苹果供应链关键
现在很明显，$SIVE 很可能就是 $AAPL 的硅光“圣杯”供应商…… 市场只是还不知道而已（这就叫 Alpha）。 如果你想知道怎么把 Apple 映射到 Sivers： > “美国财富 100 强”客户。 > 每年 5000 万台规模的 RFQ（报价请求）。 > Apple 2022 年大约卖了 5390 万块 Apple Watch，年销量通常在 3800 万到 5000 万台之间。 > $SIVE / Carnegie research 发布了 135 个波长架构，这和 Apple 的应用规格匹配。 真的……全世界还有哪个美国财富 100 强公司能这么轻松地一年做 5000 万台消费穿戴设备？就连三星也就是 1000 万到 1500 万台。 这刚好和激光架构和应用场景对应上。 $SIVE 在 X 上还暗示过来自开发时间线的量产爬坡，我猜那是苹果（H2 2027 爬坡或 H1 2028），但也可能是 Ayar 或 Jabil。
英文原文
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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AAPL 供应链假设
@fredrikmob49943 你好，瑞典本地朋友。如果不是 $AAPL： 请你给我举一个别的美国财富 100 强公司（排除三星后）的例子，它每年能出货 5000 万台以上…… 那么它就能匹配 $SIVE 的研发激光规格和应用，对吧？
英文原文
@fredrikmob49943 Hi Swedish local. If it's not $AAPL: Please name me another US Fortune 100 company (not Samsung by elimination) shipping 50M+ units yearly... That fits $SIVE R&D laser specs + applications then?
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AAPL 但不确认供应链
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL 不会确认 BOM 以及供应链里的上游供应商。但我几乎 100% 确定，可能 99%。 你也许可以再举一个每年出货 5000 万台以上、并且符合他们研发激光规格和应用场景的消费硬件公司？
英文原文
@sharion73 @veggiepoultry @StormDirac $AAPL won't confirm BOM and upstream vendors in their supply chain. But almost 100% sure, maybe 99%. Maybe you can name another consumer hardware company shipping 50M+ units yearly that fits their R&D laser specs + applications?
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Rockley 退出后 SIVE 补位
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley 掉下去了，这很可能就是 $SIVE 成为 $AAPL 供应商的原因。
英文原文
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley went down, which is likely the reason why $SIVE became the $AAPL supplier.
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AAPL 是量产爬坡的暗示客户
@Embezzl3r 对，这么看确实合理，把 $AAPL 看成他们暗示过的量产爬坡超大规模云客户。
英文原文
@Embezzl3r Yeah makes sense about seeing their reactions to $AAPL as their hinted hyperscaler customer for volume ramp.
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AAPL 这样的客户本该被庆祝
@StormDirac 是啊，通常如果一家美国公司有 $AAPL 这种大概率的超大规模云客户……大家都会欢呼。 可某个地方的大多数评论却都在唱反调，挺有意思的。
英文原文
@StormDirac Yeah, normally if a company in the US has $AAPL as a likely hyperscaler customer... Everyone would be cheering. Yet most of the comments in a certain place were negative. Amusing indeed.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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AAPL 高概率也在用它们
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL 高概率也在用它们做下一代 Apple Watch，所以这就是 7/7。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL high certainty uses them too for next-gen apple watches, so that's 7/7.
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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TAM 扩张不只 Apple 一家
@Photonix1337 这已经低估了 TAM 的扩张，因为三星、华为、Google 以及其他公司都在复制 $AAPL。 Apple 还能把同样的技术用到其他产品线里。
英文原文
@Photonix1337 That’s underselling TAM expansion with Samsung, Huawei, Google, and others all copying $AAPL. Alongside the same technology for other product lines Apple offers.
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SIVE 可能更早放量
我当时估计的是 2027 年 9 月，或者 2028 年上半年。$SIVE 提供的图表也许暗示放量会比预期更早。 如果一家公司让我等 5 年研发，我个人不会去做多。 但我做多，是为了拿到过去 5 年开发成果带来的上行，以及 2027 年来自 Ayar、$AAPL 和其他客户的量产爬坡。
英文原文
I had September 2027 or H1 2028 as my estimates. Graph provided by $SIVE might hint at earlier ramp than expected. I personally wouldn’t go long on a company if I had to wait 5 years for R&D. But I went long to get the upside from all development for the past 5 years with Ayar, $AAPL, and other for 2027 volume ramp.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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认为 Win Semi 被严重低估，在机器人、太空和 AI 供应链里都很关键。
一个被严重低估的冷门 OP 标的。 还是几乎没人谈论 Win Semi（$3105.TWO）…… 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE，以及从 $AAPL 到 $AVGO 再到 SpaceX。 感觉大家其实都在用它？ 我觉得 54 亿美元的估值低估了它在机器人、太空和 AI 超大规模客户供应链中的重要性。
英文原文
What a sleeper OP pick. Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)… From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX. Feels like everyone uses them? $5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo. https://t.co/lMg92KzufM
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AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项
Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。
英文原文
Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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全球供应链高度互联，战争将摧毁从AI到消费电子的产业链，受益者仅是以色列和俄罗斯。
我仍然看多市场（目前85%多头，15%现金/对冲）。即使在战争时期，我预期从$AAOI到$LITE的许多股票仍能跑赢大盘。然而...如今世界高度互联。现任政府可能没有意识到上游供应链的严重性和脆弱性。他们可能看到$AAPL的"美国制造"。或者$TSLA的"美国制造"，但如果你看看特斯拉人形机器人的供应链来源：-> 在中国。执行器(Actuator)材料来自俄罗斯的原料。材料来自加拿大的合作伙伴。-> 对于星链(Starlink)，大量供应链来自台湾稳懋(Win Semi)到韩国的公司。对于OpenAI、私募股权、大型科技公司和其他公司的资金来源：-> 很大一部分来自阿联酋、中东和其他地方（随着油田被炸毁，他们可能需要撤出流动性）。持续数月的美国地面入侵造成的混乱是是非常看跌的。我最初预期的是"震撼与敬畏"，美国宣称胜利，战争冲击被买回。但我不会鼓励美国走向一场旷日持久的战争。这对亚洲伙伴（韩国、日本）或我们在欧洲的盟友都没有好处。战争的主要受益者是：#1：以色列 #2：俄罗斯世界其他地区，包括美国，都被战争拖累。看起来"油价/能源价格上涨对美国有利"：但它摧毁了从$NVDA到$AAPL的超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)所依赖的大量供应链。
英文原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform. However... The World is largely interconnected now. The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains. They might look at $AAPL "Made in America". or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids: -> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada. -> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea. For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from: -> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up. Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish. I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back. But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War. This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either. The main beneficiaries of War are: #1: Israel #2: Russia The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War. It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US": But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
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看多稳懋3105：位于LEO卫星/光学/人形机器人三大高增长领域垄断瓶颈点，战略价值被市场低估。
我在稳懋（Win Semi）(3105.TWO) 4.1B市值时做多。我认为市场忽略了这家全球最重要的晶圆厂之一（在台积电$TSM之外）。我认为他们的战略定位远超40亿美元市值。他们几乎位于所有主要瓶颈点：-> SpaceX Starlink 低轨卫星供应链。-> 作为$AVGO、$LITE、$MTSI、$SIVE的磷化铟(InP)光学收发器晶圆厂。-> 作为人形机器人的身体/眼睛，是用于飞行时间(TOF)激光器的砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆厂，可能用于Boston Dynamic Atlas。-> 来自之前与联发科(MediaTek)/高通(Qualcomm)/$AAPL的业务遗留。但稳懋似乎受到legacy业务的拖累（如$SOI），光学是其最大增长向量之一。然后...稳懋拥有几乎任何晶圆厂中最大的TAM扩张/收入加速：随着：LEO、人形机器人/连续波(CW)激光、800g、1.6t、3.2t光学收发器在未来几年大幅增长。特别是博通(Broadcom)作为其锚定客户（$AVGO持有约5%的稳懋股份）。$NVDA不在乎谁制造激光器，无论是$LITE还是$COHR。他们只在乎是否有足够的供应。供应不够。-> CW激光需求可能呈抛物线增长。（他们制造像$SIVE设计的激光器）-> LEO卫星需求（SpaceX Starlink）可能呈抛物线增长。-> 人形机器人需求可能呈抛物线增长。因为稳懋位于三个最前沿和增长最快行业的半垄断瓶颈点：光子学/AI、机器人/人形机器人和太空。特别是光学TAM爆发：稳懋2027年远期收益大约在35倍范围，我认为这是保守估计，远期估值最终会非常便宜。稳懋将大大受益于TAM扩张和加速的收入增长。当然：稳懋会赢。所以我做多稳懋。
英文原文
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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说人们买苹果设备是为了工作和学校，但对方看的是三星衬底良率如何支撑 capex。
@jukan05 大多数人买苹果设备是为了日常工作或者上学。 @jukan05 买它，是因为三星 8.6G 衬底的良率足以支撑他们的 CapEx。
英文原文
@jukan05 Most people are buying Apple devices for daily work or school. @jukan05 is buying it because Samsung 8.6G substrate yields justifies their capex.
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指出在光子行业里，激光器才是真正瓶颈，尤其是 EML 产能和自有垂直整合带来的溢价。
你说下游公司通常拥有更强定价权，这点是对的。比如 $AAPL 卖 iPhone，比组装它的 Foxconn 赚得更多。 但在光子行业里，目前的瓶颈是激光器，而且激光器极其、极其值钱。 尤其是现在的 EML 产能，因为其他玩家像 Innolight / Eoptolink 之类做不了这部分。 这其实就是 $LITE 溢价的大部分来源，再加上他们自己激光器带来的 captive 垂直整合，服务于 OCS 和 1.6T。
英文原文
You're correct in saying downstream players typically have more pricing power. $AAPL for example, makes the most for selling the IPhone than Foxconn that assembles it. However, in photonics, lasers are the bottleneck currently and are extremely, extremely valuable. Especially EML capacity right now, since other players like Innolight/Eoptolink cannot do that. That's where most of $LITE's premiums come from actually + using their own lasers for captive vertical integration with OCS and 1.6T.
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作者认为基本面重于图表，因预期营业利润超苹果而继续买入SK海力士。
我喜欢告诉那些画图表的人，股票更多关乎基本面和催化剂。例如，尽管 $SKHYNIX 在过去一年上涨了300%且市值达5000亿美元，我仍在买入，因为其营业利润（约1560亿美元）预计明年将超越 $AAPL（3.8万亿美元）。显然，超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的收入比内存（除非其成为结构性需求）更具持续性。但鉴于印钞规模之大，即使前一天上涨了10%，我也能自信地买入。
英文原文
I like to tell all the people who draw charts that stocks are more about fundamentals and catalysts. I'm still buying into SK Hynix for example even after the 300% 1Y rise at $500B because their operating income (~$156B) is projected to surpass $AAPL ($3.8T) next year. Obviously hyperscaler revenues are more persistent vs. memory (unless it becomes structural). But just given the sheer amount of money printing, can just be confident to buy even after a 10% increase the previous day.
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SK海力士估值极低且利润超苹果
@arstr9876 是的，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E)约为4倍，市值达5000亿美元。SK海力士(SK Hynix)预计明年营业利润将达1600亿美元，这超过了苹果($AAPL，市值3.8万亿美元)的水平。
英文原文
@arstr9876 Yeah it’s forward p/e is like 4 at a $500b mc. sk hynix is projected to do $160B operating income next year, which is more than $AAPL ($3.8T company)
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驳斥媒体将$RPI误读为迷因股，重申其受AI需求驱动的实质基本面逻辑。
媒体将“迷因股(Meme Stock)”$RPI 的涨幅归为此类，该股本月已上涨 46.12% 并守住收益。硅谷人士都穿龙虾(Lobster)服装时，你是否曾思考过 OpenClaw 需求是否存在结构性变化？ 《每日电讯报》今天发布了一篇关于树莓派(Raspberry Pi, $RPI) 的新文章。虽然我很感激被称为“AI 极客(AI Nerd)”…… 但我不理解为什么他们共同试图将树莓派框架化为“迷因股(Meme stock)？” 整个论点(Thesis) 是围绕 OpenClaw 变体作为首选硬件带来的总可寻址市场(TAM) 扩张。 在财务方面，论点在于如果囤货持续，收入数字如何能从预期的“14% 增长”增加到“适度的 48-55%”。 我原始论点的直接引用是：这将是“反转的顺风(tailwind for a reversal)”，且“收入应受益于需求增加”。 这是逐字引用的。 我不理解像《金融时报》这样的媒体机构如何能从上述内容 -> 变成从未说过的虚假评论。 对于《金融时报》：他们插入了关于“可被框架化为对立面(big shorts)的大空头”的虚假评论。 对于《每日电讯报》：他们插入了诸如“对公司本身的喜爱而非财务表现或潜力”的虚假评论。 我不确定大型媒体机构为何不被要求更高的标准，却能随意捏造评论？ 再次强调，$AAPL Mac Mini 作为 AI 编排(AI orchestration)硬件的囤货不会对苹果收入（作为一家 3.7 万亿美元市值的公司）造成显著影响。 然而，这对像 $RPI 这样的公司是实质性的(material)。 这就是核心论点。 OpenClaw 和 AI 智能体/集群(AI agents/swarms) 驱动树莓派销量的增加（更重要的是，作为长期催化剂），这可能导致收入预测超预期(beat) + 重估(re-rating)。 多家机构包括添加捏造评论的框架极其不真诚(disingenuous)。 这是一个基本的、高度具体的论点，但多家媒体机构只是决定捏造完全随机的内容，将树莓派描绘为迷因股。
英文原文
The media labeled “Meme Stock” $RPI has held its gains, and is up 46.12% this month. Ever stop to wonder if there’s something structural with OpenClaw demand if everyone in Silicon Valley is dressing up in Lobster Costumes? https://t.co/IkR5BXn2dd
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SK海力士估值过高，应重基本面而非图表。
@AntoineLavenant 这是韩国指数，不是某种随机的迷因股(meme stock)。SK海力士(SK Hynix)上周市值达4000亿美元，预计明年利润将超过 $AAPL。所以我认为还有很大的下行空间。更重要的是关注基本面而非图表。
英文原文
@AntoineLavenant It’s the South Korea index not some random meme stock. SK Hynix was a $400B company last week and projected to make more than $AAPL next year. So I think there’s some ways to go. More important to look at fundamentals over the chart
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指出AI预测偏差，强调基本面优于技术分析。
并非如此，Gemini 只是非常自信地给出了错误答案。我刚才试着问了它类似的问题，结果偏差极大。 基本上，图表呈现直线上升的原因是分析师预测（大语言模型并未对此进行训练）显示，SK海力士明年的净利润将超过 $AAPL。 SK海力士仍是一家市值约 4300 亿美元的公司，而苹果为 3.7 万亿美元。此外，三星的净利润更是天文数字。 因此，估值重估（Repricing）可能还有很长的路要走。 基本面 > 技术分析(TA)。
英文原文
Not really, Gemini is just very confidently wrong. I tried asking it similar questions just now and they were super off. Basically reason it's a straight line up is because analyst projections (which LLMs haven't trained on), projects that Sk Hynix makes more net income than $AAPL next year. SK Hynix is still a ~$430B company compared to $3.7T. Then Samsung net income is just astronomical. There's likely a long way to go for repricing. Fundamentals > TA.
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澄清媒体误将$RPI基本面逻辑扭曲为迷因股炒作。
《每日电讯报》今天发布了一篇关于树莓派（$RPI）的新文章。 虽然我很感激被称为“AI极客”…… 但我不理解为什么媒体普遍试图将树莓派框架化为“迷因股（Meme stock）”？ 整个论点（Thesis）的核心是：随着OpenClaw变体成为首选硬件，总可寻址市场（TAM）正在扩张。 在财务方面，论点在于如果囤货持续，营收数字如何能从预期的14%增长提升至温和的48-55%。 我原始论点中的直接引语是：这将是“反转的顺风（tailwind for a reversal）”，且“营收应受益于需求增加”。 这是逐字引用的。 我不理解像《金融时报》这样的媒体机构如何能从上述内容转变为从未说过的虚假评论。 对于《金融时报》：他们插入了关于“可被框架化为对立面的大型空头”的虚假评论。 对于《每日电讯报》：他们插入了诸如“对公司本身的喜爱而非财务表现或潜力”的虚假评论。 我不确定大型媒体机构为何不被要求更高的标准，却能随意捏造评论？ 再次强调，$AAPL Mac Mini作为AI编排（orchestration）硬件的囤货不会对苹果营收造成显著影响（因为它是3.7万亿美元市值的公司）。 然而，这对像$RPI这样的公司是实质性的（material）。 这就是核心论点。 OpenClaw和AI代理/集群（swarms）驱动树莓派销量增加（更重要的是，作为长期催化剂），这可能导致营收预测超预期+重估（re-rating）。 多家媒体机构极其不诚实地进行框架化，包括添加捏造的评论。 这是一个基本面、高度具体的论点，但多家媒体机构决定完全随机地捏造内容，将树莓派描绘成迷因股。
英文原文
The Telegraph put out a new piece today about Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) While I appreciate being called an "AI Nerd"... I don't understand why they all in common try and frame Raspberry Pi as a "Meme stock?" The whole thesis was around TAM expansion from OpenClaw variants as the hardware of choice. For financials, it was how revenue numbers could increase beyond projected numbers from "14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." Direct quote from my original thesis: this would be a "tailwind for a reversal" and "revenue should benefit from increased demand". This was verbatim. I don't understand how media outlets like Financial Times can go from that -> into fake commentary that was never said. For FT: they inserted false commentary about "big shorts that can be frame as opposition" For The Telegraph: they inserted false commentary like "fondness for the company itself rather than financial performance or potential". I'm not sure how large media outlets aren't held to higher standards and are able to just make up commentary? Once again, $AAPL Mac Mini as AI orchestration hardware hoarding wouldn't make a dent on Apple revenue (as it's a $3.7T company). However, it's material to a company like $RPI. That's the core thesis. OpenClaw and AI agents/swarms drives an increase in sales of Raspberry PI (and better yet, as a long term cataylst), which would likely cause revenue projection beats + re-rating. Extremely disingenuous framing by multiple outlets, including adding made-up commentary. This was a fundamental, highly-specific argument, but multiple media outlets just decided to make up something completely random to paint Raspberry Pi as a Meme Stock.
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反驳FT将$RPI归为迷因股，强调其基本面驱动及OpenClaw需求带来的实质影响。
《金融时报》关于 $RPI 的报道似乎别有用心。特别是将“树莓派(Raspberry Pi)”框定为“迷因股(Meme stock)”的做法。 1. 文中对空头(shorts)只字未提。 2. 这与 $GME 的逼空+持有“迷因股”叙事完全无关。 这是由实质性营收变化驱动的资金流入(informed flow)。 尤其是当树莓派已经是一家盈利公司时。 我原话如下： “ - 营收约 2.8 亿 -3 亿美元 - 毛利润(Gross Profit)约 7500 万美元以上 - 毛利率(Gross Margin)约 25% - 净利润(Net income)：约 1000 万 -1500 万美元 - 净现金(Net Cash)：2800 万美元” 分析师目前预测营收增长接近 14-17%。 但如果需求涌入持续，随着囤货行为继续，营收增速可能从 14% 跃升至温和的 48-55%。 ” $AAPL Mac mini 已知被囤积用于 OpenClaw 部署。但苹果设备采购对这家 3.7 万亿美元市值的公司影响微乎其微。 $RPI 是 OpenClaw 智能体编排(agentic orchestration)的另一款首选硬件，导致需求激增。 但由于市值较小，需求激增确实会产生实质性影响。 这纯粹是基本面营收增长和新可寻址市场(new addressable market)。 在完全未提及空头的情况下，将其框定为围绕挤压对手空头的 $GME 式反弹，是别有用心的。
英文原文
The Financial Times piece on $RPI seems disingenuous. Especially the framing of "Raspberry Pi" as a Meme stock. 1. There's been 0 mentions about shorts 2. It's completely unrelated to $GME's short squeeze + hold "meme-stock" narratives. This is informed flow from material revenue changes. Especially when Raspberry Pi is an already profitable company. My exact quote verbatim: " - ~$280M- $300M revenue - ~$75M+ Gross Profit - ~25% Gross Margin - Net income: ~$10M - $15M - Net Cash: $28M" Analysts currently project revenue growth closer to 14–17%. But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues. " $AAPL mac minis has been known to be hoarded for OpenClaw deployments. But Apple devices purchases have little material impact on a $3.7T company. $RPI is the other leading hardware of choice for OpenClaw agentic orchestration, causing a surge of demand. But due to the market cap, a surge in demand increase does have a material impact. This is purely fundamental revenue increases and a new addressable market. Framing it as $GME-type rally around squeezing opposition shorts, when there's been 0 mentions of shorts whatsoever is disingenuous.
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媒体引用其树莓派AI硬件论点，看好代理式AI本地编排趋势。
很酷，《卫报》引用了我关于树莓派(Raspberry Pi)的论点。 先是路透社，然后是彭博社、经济时报，现在轮到《卫报》了！ OpenClaw🦞真的病毒式传播，彻底改变了关于树莓派($RPI)和MiniMax(HKG: 0100)的叙事。 随着OpenAI的收购，看起来代理式AI(agentic AI)和本地编排(local orchestration)硬件只会从这里开始增长。 我只是在评论人们视而不见的结构性转变，正如我们进入AI应用的新前沿。
英文原文
It’s cool “The Guardian” cited my thesis on Raspberry Pi. First Reuters, then Bloomberg, Economic Times, and now The Guardian! OpenClaw🦞 really went viral and transformed the narrative on Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and Minimax (HKG: 0100). Following the OpenAI acquisition, it looks like agentic AI and local orchestration hardware is only growing from here. I’m just commentating on structural shifts people miss in plain sight, as we enter a new frontier in AI applications.
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MiniMax和RPI是OpenClaw交易最大受益者，需研究S。
@Baltachi_com 我认为 OpenClaw 交易最大的两个受益者其实是 MiniMax (HKG: 0100) 和 $RPI，两者都上涨了约 60%。 其余如 $AAPL（可能还有 $TWLO）体量太大，难以产生实质性影响。 需要研究一下 $S。
英文原文
@Baltachi_com I'd say the two biggest beneficiaries of the OpenClaw trade is actually Minimax (HKG: 0100) and $RPI, which are both up ~60% together. The rest like $AAPL are a bit too big (and probably $TWLO ) to make a material impact. Will need to take a look into $S.
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机构验证树莓派转型AI基建，CEO回购，后续看执行。
彭博社关于树莓派（$RPI）及 OpenClaw/PicoClaw/NanoClaw 论点的报道： 在对 Montanaro Asset Management 基金经理 Adam Montanaro 的采访中： “从主题上看，树莓派从爱好者开发板演变为 AI 基础设施的核心组件，这一趋势是正确的。” 彭博社的 Henry Ren 也表示： “树莓派的另一个利好是，创始人兼首席执行官 Eben Upton 近期频繁回购股票，文件显示自 1 月下旬以来他已分五次买入。” 很高兴看到机构验证了树莓派从教育类爱好者开发板向 AI 硬件编排核心基础设施的转型。 话虽如此，其余部分取决于公司能否通过执行落地，在 AI 智能体（AI Agents）领域拓展其新的总可服务市场（TAM）。
英文原文
Bloomberg on the Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and the OpenClaw / PicoClaw / NanoClaw thesis: In their interview with Adam Montanaro, a fund manager at Montanaro Asset Management: "Thematically the evolution of a Raspberry Pi from hobbyist board into a core piece of AI infrastructure is correct" Henry Ren from Bloomberg also stated: "Another positive for Raspberry Pi has been a rash of share purchases by founder and Chief Executive Officer Eben Upton, who has bought stock on five separate occasions since late January, filings show." It's great to see institutional validation of Raspberry Pi's transition from educational hobbyist boards into core infrastructure for AI hardware orchestration. That being said, the rest depends on the company's execution to grow into their new TAM with AI agents.
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树莓派因AI智能体编排需求激增，正从教育公司重估为AI硬件公司。
很高兴我的 $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞 论点被路透社报道。 树莓派（Raspberry Pi）廉价教育板的市场规模（TAM）一夜之间扩大了。 因为它们已成为 $AAPL Mac Mini 的更廉价标准，用于 AI 智能体编排（AI Agent Orchestration）+ AI 集群（AI Swarms）。 树莓派在廉价板卡领域拥有事实上的垄断地位，因为它们最初针对的是教育用途。 几乎没有公司有需求（或动力）在该领域与之竞争。 市场目前正在重新评估一家曾经只卖 1-2 块板用于测试的教育公司。 将其视为一家销售可大规模生产的 AI 智能体编排板卡的 AI 硬件公司。
英文原文
Glad my $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞thesis made it to Reuters. Raspberry Pi’s cheap educational boards had a TAM expansion overnight. As they’ve become the cheaper standard for AI Agent Orchestration + AI Swarms alongside the $AAPL Mac Mini. Raspberry Pi has a de facto monopoly in the cheap board space as they were targeting educational use purposes. And almost no company had a need (or incentive) to compete in that space. Markets are currently rerating an education company that used to sell 1-2 boards for testing. Into an AI hardware company that sells mass producible boards for AI Agent Orchestration.
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博主称赞粉丝猜中苹果股价最接近。
@AlwaysBeThinkin 回到这条帖子，你猜 $AAPL 最接近！
英文原文
@AlwaysBeThinkin Going back to this post you were the closest by guessing $AAPL!
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持有RPI，预期OpenClaw需求将如Mac mini短缺般显著提振营收。
@Cheva28789724 谢谢！持有 $RPI 才一天，让我们看看关于“为 OpenClaw 用例囤积树莓派(Raspberry Pi)”的投资逻辑(thesis)会被如何定价。我猜测，与 $AAPL 的 Mac mini 短缺相比，这应该会对营收产生实质性影响。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 Appreciate it! It's only been one day with $RPI but we'll see how my thesis regarding Raspberry Pi hoarding for OpenClaw use cases gets priced in. My guess is that it should have a material impact on revenue compared to the mac mini shortage with $AAPL.
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调侃特朗普可能将苹果与软银混淆。
@AbBanglawala 特朗普本人？ 不过话说回来，他可能把苹果(Apple)错认成了软银(SoftBank)，谁知道呢。
英文原文
@AbBanglawala Trump himself? Then again he might be mistaking Apple for SoftBank, who knows.
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特朗普直播称苹果与英伟达已介入某事。
@Aspie_Supremacy 特朗普在他几小时前的直播采访中措辞是“苹果进去了，英伟达也进去了”。https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY
英文原文
@Aspie_Supremacy Trump worded it was "Apple went in, Nvidia went in" from his live interview few hours ago. https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY