个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2359 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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SMCI因合规历史被市场折价，不适合所有人
@throw_away_9264 是的，鉴于其过往的合规失败历史，我认为市场对 $SMCI 施加折价是正确的。这绝对不是适合所有人的投资。
英文原文
@throw_away_9264 Yep, I still think markets are correct to apply discounts to $SMCI given history with compliance failures. Definitely not for everyone
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基于2026年H1营收预测，SMCI远期市盈率约4.1倍。
@KHqmjz 如果套用他们2026年至今的净利率，$SMCI 约为 ~7.7%。 如果他们在2026年上半年实现700亿美元营收且保持相同净利率，远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 约为 ~4.1倍。
英文原文
@KHqmjz If you apply their net margin for 2026 so far, $SMCI is around ~7.7%. If they do $70B revenue for H1 2026 with the same net margins, would be round ~4.1x forward earnings.
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SMCI 2027 营收指引大幅超预期，博主看好其估值重估空间并持有短期多头。
$SMCI 2027 年的指引简直“邪门”：FY 2027 营收指引为 650-720 亿美元…… 相比之下，市场预期约为 524 亿美元，轻松超出共识 161 亿美元。 SMCI 在此次财报中录得了超过 600 亿美元的新增订单。 这个时间线也很有趣，因为他们在 6 月曾宣布计划与 $SPCX 和 xAI 在“一年内”联合建设数据中心(DC)。 但如果 SMCI 能在那约 700 亿美元的营收指引下维持 10-15% 的毛利率……我认为鉴于市值(MC)仅约 200 亿美元，估值重估的空间很大（非财务建议，NFA，我目前基于此次财报持有 SMCI 的短期头寸）。 最重要的是从今天的电话会议中了解 2027 年的毛利率情况。
英文原文
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
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LITE财报超预期，指引强劲，看好CPO渗透及同行受益。
$LITE 财报出炉，表现非常强劲： 营收：10.1亿美元，环比+24.5%，同比+109.3% vs. 预期约9.846亿美元 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：3.23美元 vs. 预期约2.95美元 毛利率(非GAAP)：50.4% / 营业利润率(非GAAP) 36.6% FY2027 Q1指引可能更重要： 营收：12.25亿–12.75亿美元 vs. 预期约11.6亿美元 调整后每股收益：4.05–4.35美元 vs. 预期约3.63美元 营业利润率(非GAAP) 39.5% - 40.5% 关于备注： 看到：“对超高功率共封装光学(CPO)激光器的需求增加，ELS模块获得初始订单” - 对其他CPO玩家如 $SIVEF、$COHR 等有很好的传导效应(read through)。(可能不包括 $AAOI，因为它们错过了第一代部署) - “NPO参与的广度是光学开始渗透机架内连接性的初步迹象，显著提升了我们的光学总可寻址市场(TAM)” - 营收预测“比目标模型提前一个多季度达成。” 正如预期的极其强劲的财报，营收从： 8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿，同时营业利润率持续增加... 这只是我的初步印象。 最重要的是即将召开的财报电话会议。
英文原文
$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings: Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth vs. ~$984.6M Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95 Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6% Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important: Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63 Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5% In terms of notes: Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules" - Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments) - "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM" - Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule." Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions. Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.
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AAOI 多技术周期叠加，2028 年 CPO 产能将带来巨大增量。
给那些认为 $AAOI 只是单年周期股的人提个醒： $AAOI 预计其用于共封装光学(CPO) 的 ELSFP 产能将在 2028 年达到每月 40 万片。 40 万 * ~$400 ELS 平均售价(ASP，高盛假设) = 新增约 19.2 亿美元/年的年化营收产能，作为一条全新且独立（毛利率 >50%）的产品线。 这叠加在他们现有的 2027 年预测之上（例如，下半年起月营收 4.71 亿美元，对应年化光模块营收约 56 亿美元）。 1.6T 的潜在市场(TAM) 也在飙升，所以我预计随着更多产能上线，他们 2027 年下半年的预测值会进一步上调... 对于某些光通信标的，这是一个周期（例如 1.6T、CPO 规模化、NPO 等）叠加在另一个周期之上... 再叠加另一个... 随着 TAM 和利润率像《英雄联盟》中艾尼维亚使用 W 技能后的小精灵一样层层堆叠。 而不是仅仅依靠单一年份的“一次性”爆发。 这与某些其他板块形成鲜明对比，那些板块在经历可能仅一年的三位数同比营收增长后，增长可能会放缓。
英文原文
Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.
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分享RIOT收入拐点及2028年比特币催化剂，提示双重敞口标的关注。
@lichunhong1204 我只是分享一些我觉得有趣的内容，以及从收入拐点(Revenue Inflection Points)角度的一些主题性信号。 我自己没有持有 $RIOT，也不能给出买入建议，所以最终决定权在你。 他们确实通过该交易获得了约 4.55 亿美元的年化收入，另一个值得考虑的催化剂可能是 2028 年的比特币(Bitcoin)。 因此，部分具有双重敞口(Dual Exposure)的标的可能会在 2028 年上半年获得大量关注。
英文原文
@lichunhong1204 I’m just posting about stuff I find interesting, and some signals thematically in terms of revenue inflection points. I don’t own $RIOT myself and can’t give buy recommendations, so in the end up to you. They did contract roughly ~$455M annual revenue from that deal, and a second catalyst to think about might be the 2028 Bitcoin. So some of these names with dual exposure might get a lot of attention H1 2028.
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看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
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SIVE撤回收购案，从激光瓶颈扩大TAM，博主预期更高。
@softmaxedx 这只是激光阵列产能建模。看多逻辑是 $SIVE 撤回其 Cloud Light 收购案，并从激光瓶颈处扩大总可寻址市场(TAM)。我个人预期更高，但大家可以自行估值。
英文原文
@softmaxedx This is just laser array capacity modeling. The bull case is $SIVE pulling their own Cloud Light acquisition and multiplying TAM starting from the laser chokepoint. I have much higher expectations personally, but people can make their own valuation estimates. https://t.co/sS372W0SYR
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博主维持对 Win 看多，看好其 InP 激光器及硅光代工在瓶颈期的增长潜力。
@sunmingjun4 是的，我仍然对 Win (Win Semiconductors) 保持看多。在瓶颈期，他们正在上线磷化铟(InP)激光器的稀有独立产能（源自 Sivers），以及可能面向 AI 数据中心的硅光(PiC)晶圆代工服务（来自演示文稿）。我猜测其光学晶圆代工业务可能会在 2027 年起推动令人惊喜的收入增长。
英文原文
@sunmingjun4 Yep, I'm still bullish on Win. They're coming online with rare independent capacity for InP lasers (we know from Sivers) and maybe PiC foundry services (presentation slides) for AI DCs, during a time of a bottleneck. And my guess is its optical foundry might drive surprising revenue growth 2027 onward.
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宇树上市在即，博主关注其对Agility及机器人板块的影响。
@rektusd101 宇树科技(Unitree)本月上市，预计开盘估值约300亿美元（IPO前永续合约），从约56亿美元涨至目前的90亿美元。鉴于Agility在$CCXI下投前估值为25亿美元，我正密切关注宇树上市时机器人板块尤其是Agility的走势。我已阐述过关于人形机器人(humanoids)的逻辑，个人正在等待其兑现。
英文原文
@rektusd101 Unitree is being listed this month, and is expected to open around a $30B valuation (pre-IPO perps) from ~$5.6B -> $9B now. Given Agility is valued at $2.5B premoney with $CCXI, I’m just watching what happens to the robotics sector and especially Agility, when Unitree goes public. I’ve already laid down my thesis with humanoids and I’m personally waiting for it to play out.
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看好SIVE激光资产潜力，预期其分拆光模块业务并上市。
@vas_203 呃，鉴于其激光资产极具吸引力，我不希望 $SIVE 被收购。因为我看到它有潜力成为下一个 $LITE。 老实说，剥离出光引擎(OE)解决方案、完整的光收发器业务，或者类似从一家陷入困境的私营初创公司中分拆出来的业务，可能会很有趣。 我猜测这会在未来几个季度纳斯达克上市之后发生。我认为CEO知道该怎么做，所以我只是一路跟随。
英文原文
@vas_203 Uhh I don’t want $SIVE to be acquired given how attractive their laser assets are. Since I see potential for them end up as the next $LITE. Honestly carving out OE solutions complete optical transceiver business or something similar that’s distressed from a private startup might be interesting. My guess is it comes after Nasdaq listing within next few quarters or so. I think the CEO knows what to do, so I’m just tagging along for the ride.
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博主重申看多AXTI，认为InP衬底供需失衡及瓶颈论点已获验证。
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo 我字面上和法律上都不能给你们建议。 我个人持有并仍然看多 $AXTI，因为我认为在未来2-3年内，磷化铟(InP)衬底的需求失衡状况不会消失。 我的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈论点+AI建设破坏性影响，在今年中期从路透社到其他外延晶圆(epiwafer)财报电话会议中得到了验证。 你们随意。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo I literally and legally can't give you advice. I'm personally long and still bullish on $AXTI since I don't think InP substrate demand imbalance will be going anywhere over the next 2-3 years. And my InP substrate bottleneck thesis + AI buildout disruption got validated midway through the year from Reuters to other epiwafer earnings calls. You do you
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重申AXTI对AI建设的威胁论点，指出激光器采购才是供应链瓶颈。
@coolATCS 看到人们重申我去年关于 $AXTI 的论点，将其视为对 AI 建设构成的真正威胁，这让我很高兴。另外补充一点细节：中际旭创(Innolight) 从其他厂商采购 EML/CW 激光器，这才是瓶颈所在。下游的组装/集成环节并非瓶颈。
英文原文
@coolATCS It makes me happy that people are reiterating my $AXTI thesis from last year like it's a legitimate threat to the AI buildout now. Also just some nuance Innolight, buys EML/CW lasers off other players, which is the bottleneck. Not so much downstream assembly/integration layers.
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RKLB新火箭与卫星平台验证至关重要，博主持有该股。
@zcelestialbaby 这对 $RKLB 至关重要，因为它将验证其新的可重复使用中程运载火箭 Neutron 以及其更新的卫星平台。我很少发布关于 Rocketlab 的更新（是的，我持有 Rocketlab），除非是引起我注意的事情。
英文原文
@zcelestialbaby It's material to $RKLB, since it will be validating their new reusable medium lift rocket Neutron as well as their newer satellite platform. I don't really post much updates on Rocketlab (yes I own Rocketlab). unless it's something that catches my eye.
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RKLB获美国太空军近4亿美元卫星制造及发射合同。
$RKLB 获得了美国太空军价值 3.97 亿美元的合同。用于制造 Flatellite 卫星，并使用其中型运载火箭 Neutron 进行发射。
英文原文
$RKLB has been awarded a $397M contract by the US Space Force. To build out Flatellite satellites and launch them on their Medium Lift rocket, Neutron. https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI
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AXTI因处上游难受美出口管制，但或成反制目标。
@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI 处于产业链过于上游的位置。我确实不认为他们会受到美国的出口管制。 但他们可能会被用作反制工具，我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI is too far upstream. I definitely do not see them going to be export controlled by the US. But they could be used in retaliation, we’ll see.
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AI激光器供应危机加剧，验证AAOI等标的瓶颈逻辑。
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE 峰会上警告称，AI 数据中心（AI DCs）用磷化铟(InP)激光器的供应缺口： 正面临比存储芯片更严重的供应链危机。 凭借 Lumentum 的 5 座 InP 晶圆厂，其出货量将比客户需求低 30% 以上。 这在目前的电吸收调制激光器(EMLs)上尤为明显，但随着共封装光学(CPO)的推进，已扩展至连续波(CW)激光器。 我一直看好 $AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR 带来的激光器卡脖子+瓶颈逻辑。很高兴这一论点开始得到验证。
英文原文
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
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认为RDDT财报后跌幅被夸大，看好其变现策略及AI授权前景。
@amitisinvesting 同意对 $RDDT 的看法，我认为财报/预期带来的 -22.61% 反应似乎被夸大了。他们的变现策略似乎正在发挥奇效。鉴于前沿实验室总是需要更多数据，AI 授权(AI licensing)似乎也是不可避免的。这是最让人困惑的抛售之一。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Agreed on $RDDT, the -22.61% reaction seems overblown to me off those earnings/projections. Their monetization strategy seem to be working wonders. AI licensing seems inevitable as well given your frontier labs always want more data. Was one of the more confusing selloffs.
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Reddit业绩超预期却暴跌，博主对这种非理性抛售表示惊讶。
@tax_evader666 美国日活跃用户(DAU)*，他们在财务指标上大超预期，并将远期指引上调至高于市场共识。但人们喜欢每次股价下跌时都编造一些叙事。$RDDT 暴跌 22.6% 让我非常惊讶。
英文原文
@tax_evader666 US DAU*, they beat heavily on financial metrics and raised forward guidance above street expectations. But people like to make up some narrative every time something drops. -22.6% selloff on $RDDT is very surprising to me.
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Reddit财报全面超预期，博主批评市场无视基本面而因DAU微跌抛售。
$RDDT 财报简评： 营收：8.049亿美元 vs 预期7.304亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：1.25美元 vs 约0.95美元。 净利润：2.528亿美元 vs 1.965亿美元。 Q3指引： 营收：8.60-8.70亿美元 vs 8.291亿美元 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(Adjusted EBITDA)：3.85-3.95亿美元 vs 3.69亿美元 财务数据全面超预期，但市场总喜欢编造新故事来解释股价下跌22.6%。 上季度：“AI将颠覆Reddit导致营收下滑！” 本季度：“看，日活跃用户(DAU)跌了0.6%！”（完全无视营收和盈利增长）
英文原文
$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
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看好$XFAB作为早期$TSEM潜力股，CPO预期未计入模型。
@jim29223471 是的，我的想法是 $XFAB 可能成为早期的 $TSEM，作为一家实际的碳化硅(SiC)/微机电系统(MEMS)晶圆代工厂，在他们发展光子学部门的过程中起到桥梁作用。他们重申了对共封装光学(CPO)的敞口，且2028年的时间表尚未被计入任何营收模型中（这一点我很欣赏）。可能还稍微有点早，但我们正接近2026年下半年的节点，且管理层指引(ER)非常有帮助。
英文原文
@jim29223471 Yeah my thought was $XFAB could be an early $TSEM with actual SiC/MEMs foundry kinda bridging the gap while they develop their photonics arm. They did reiterate exposure to CPO and 2028 timeline isn't priced into any revenue models yet (which I liked about them). Might be a tad early, but we're getting closer in H2 2026 and the ER statements were very helpful.
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XFAB确认CPO与800V布局，验证投资逻辑，预期2027-2028年估值重估。
关于 $XFAB 投资者关系(ER)电话会议纪要： 简单回顾一下，我对 $XFAB 晶圆代工增长机会的观点源于碳化硅(SiC)在800V架构中的应用，以及光子工厂(MTP)在共封装光学(CPO)领域的适用性。 - $XFAB：“我们在共封装光学方面正在取得进展”。 - “向800V架构的过渡……预计将推动对碳化硅(SiC)和氮化镓(GaN)的需求……对 $XFAB 而言”。 所以，那些自信地唱空 $XFAB、声称其“在800V、光子学、CPO方面零敞口”的分析师/人士，结果被证明完全错了。 在我分享观点时，行业材料显示日月光(ASE)等公司将光子工厂+ $XFAB 列为欧洲即将崛起的CPO玩家。 filings显示他们普遍涉及如 $NVTS / $POWI 等名称。 很高兴 $XFAB 出面明确澄清，表示他们正在开发CPO/800V相关技术。 回到ER纪要： - “我们继续预计光子学量产将于2028年开始”。公司目前有三个硅光子项目正在与关键合作伙伴开发中。 我原本以为会在2027年下半年爬坡，但可能早估了几个月。 - 多个新的数据中心设计订单，例如3个新的碳化硅设计订单（与800V部署启动后2027年普遍爬坡一致）。 因此，一旦这些在2027-2028年爬坡（市场往往会提前定价），我预计 $XFAB 将基于增长机会获得估值重估。 总结： - 当前营收数据并不惊艳。 - $XFAB 确认直接涉足CPO和800V转型（这是投资逻辑的最大胜利） - 800V敞口带来的碳化硅机会（应在2027年） - 光子学量产时间表为2028年 很高兴CPO/800V敞口的投资逻辑在此次ER中得到确认。营收爬坡可能需要一点等待时间。
英文原文
For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.
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亚马逊资本支出上调及算力短缺证实，AXTI 产能扩张且供不应求，看多 AI 半导体及光通信供应链。
几条财报摘要，重点是我看好的 $AXTI 和 $AMZN： 亚马逊： - 将 2026 年资本支出上调至 2200 亿美元（此前为 2000 亿美元），部分原因是内存成本上升，这对 $MU 和三星是利好。 - 即使达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊的产能仍无法满足 2026 年的所有需求；Jassy 预计 2027 年情况相同。 - 大多数 2027 年的新增产能已被预订，2028 年的大量产能也已预订。 主要浏览了上游半导体板块。$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN 和 $MSFT 均指出算力短缺。 几周前关于 Meta 等公司“算力过剩”以及超大规模云厂商削减支出的所有叙事……全是胡扯。 亚马逊财报对 AI 半导体交易非常看多。 AXTI： - AXT 计划在 2026 年将磷化铟(InP)产能翻倍，2027 年再翻倍。 - 预计这将使 AXT 成为“迄今为止全球最大的磷化铟生产商”——冲鸭。 - 第二季度营收为 4760 万美元，创 AXT 历史单季新高（来自数据中心应用的 InP 营收创纪录达 3070 万美元）。 - 营收环比增长 77%，同比增长 164%。 - InP 营收-产能目标：2026 年底每季度 6000 万美元。 - 2027 年底每季度 1.3 亿美元。 由于管理层表示他们将“寻找任何方式增加产能扩张”，1.3 亿美元的目标可能会进一步提高。 管理层称报告中的积压订单仍远高于 1 亿美元，但该数字已不能反映所有可用需求。 “无论我们增加产能的速度多快，客户需求持续超过供应。” 800G/1.6T 正在驱动当前周期，而 NPO/CPO 将其延伸至 2027 年之后。 此外，他们的目标是 50% 以上的毛利率：“我们绝对应该瞄准一个以五开头的数字。” 中国需求翻倍有余，且与 Casela、$COHR 和 $LITE 的协议并未实质性推动第二季度业绩。 这甚至还没有考虑我预测的随着 InP 衬底瓶颈加剧带来的巨大平均售价(ASP)上涨。 摘要： - 亚马逊算力需求过大，需要资本支出来满足，因此上游半导体起飞。 - AXT 是全球最大的 InP 衬底供应商，高毛利率，产能扩张，且供应跟不上需求。 看多来自亚马逊的需求端+资本支出。看多上游光通信供应链，因为需求过大。
英文原文
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
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博主驳斥对 Leopold 募资的质疑，认同其将当前超调视为最佳买入机会。
关于 Leopold 募资，周围有很多愚蠢的评论。在 $BE、$SNDK、$SHAZ 等股票 7 月出现剧烈回撤后。请记住……这位金融界人士：1. 身高 6 英尺 5 英寸；2. 蓝眼睛；3. 对冲基金经理。可能比你帅，且今年截至 6 月收益达 439%。关于回撤，Aschenbrenner 承认基金“未能幸免”于市场动荡，尤其是亚洲市场。FT 另据报道，杠杆放大了其非凡收益和近期亏损。他将此次抛售描述为自 2025 年初以来最佳的买入机会。我同意他的观点，并希望他募资成功。因为目前的大部分抛售看起来像是因强制去杠杆而超调了。
英文原文
There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.
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博主认为当前估值极具吸引力，重申AAOI和NBIS的营收拐点预期。
@WangHou4128 我不认为我（或任何人）能准确预测底部。否则如果他们真知道，早就做每周期权了。 不过很难想象某些标的会跌得更低，比如 $AAOI 的市值已接近1倍年化远期营收。$POET 跌幅巨大，其市值约10.8亿美元，而现金就有约8亿美元。 总体而言，即使 Leopond 也认为当前估值极具吸引力，所以他正在募资买入下跌。不过谁说得准呢？ 但从中长期来看，就我个人的投资逻辑而言，我预计一旦营收预测兑现为盈利，行情就会展开。 我重申 $AAOI 的营收拐点在2027年上半年末……$NBIS 的营收拐点在2026年第四季度，等等，这是我的个人估算。 当然，在此之前会有大量波动。
英文原文
@WangHou4128 I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.
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看好宇树科技IPO，认为其商业化领先且具吸引力，但担忧地缘禁令风险。
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 对宇树科技(Unitree Robotics)持非常乐观的看法，因为它是目前的全球领导者之一。 相对于美国Figure（估值390亿美元），其$60亿的首次公开募股(IPO)对我来说极具吸引力。因为宇树在商业化方面领先更多。 但从西方角度来看，中国未来的人形机器人被禁，这可能会稍微损害估值。 无论如何，如果可能的话，我个人会持有宇树的头寸（但由于地理位置限制无法做到），因为我同意埃隆的说法，即人形机器人将是未来。
英文原文
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 Very favorable view on Unitree Robotics, since they're one of the global leaders right now. The $6B IPO is extremely attractive to me, relative to Figure in the US (which is valued at $39B). Since Unitree is much further ahead in commercialization. But coming from a Western standpoint, China's future humanoids did get banned so that might hurt valuations a bit. Regardless, I personally would have positions in Unitree if I could (but can't due to geography) since I'd agree with Elon in saying humanoids are going to be the future.
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微软2026年投资预期未变，数字差异源于会计重分类。
@Jespabe 不完全是，这只是会计上的表述框架。微软的投资预期其实没变，只是由于数据中心(DC)租赁的重分类，2026年的数字从$190B变成了$175B。所以大致预测是一样的。
英文原文
@Jespabe Not really, it's accounting framing. Microsoft investment expectations are the same but it's $175B for 2026 instead of $190B for 2026 because of how they reclassified DC leases. So roughly the same projections.
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看好某公司基本面及瓶颈地位，但担忧融资与CEO薪酬结构。
@LeaderInvests 我个人非常喜欢他们目前的基本面状况，在收购 Mirantis 后，拥有现有的 GW 级算力产能，以及泄露的 Anthropic 备忘录显示其在澳大利亚等地锁定算力。他们正处于一个巨大瓶颈的核心位置。作为自豪的股东，主要担忧仍是改善融资结构（不要使用自动取款机 ATM 增发）并取消过度的 CEO 基于股票的薪酬（SBC）-> 让他们追求股价升值而非股份数量。解决这两个问题，我认为其他股东会很高兴。
英文原文
@LeaderInvests I personally quite like their fundamental position right now after Mirantis acquisition, existing GW scale capacity, and leaked Anthropic memos of securing compute in places like Australia. They’re sitting right in the middle of a massive bottleneck. As a proud shareholder, main concern still is improving financing structures (not with ATMs) and removing the excessive CEO SBCs -> having them try for appreciating share prices rather than share count. Two fixes and I think other shareholders will be happy.
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AI去杠杆冲击AAOI，质疑其估值并对比LITE。
@nicomejia_ 目前全球范围内正在进行无差别的AI去杠杆化，$AAOI 是受影响的高贝塔（High-Beta）标的之一。如果他们在2027年（基于每月4.71亿美元的预测）实现56亿美元的年化营收，却依然维持63亿美元的公司市值，我个人至少会感到惊讶。$LITE 目前的年化营收约为32.3亿美元，但市值已达480亿美元（尽管利润率更高）。
英文原文
@nicomejia_ Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected. I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company. $LITE annualized right now is ~$3.23B and they're a $48B company (but higher margins)
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GFS获政府入股支持CPO却股价下跌，对比INTC令人惊讶。
@4intheflames 我并未持有 $GFS，但令我个人惊讶的是，在美国政府为支持其推进共封装光学(CPO)技术而直接入股的消息公布后，其股价仍在下跌。考虑到大家都记得 $INTC 是最近一家受美国政府青睐的晶圆代工厂，这确实令人惊讶。
英文原文
@4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.