个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2479 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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传统存储价格累计暴涨超400%，预计Q3无晶圆厂财报将大幅超预期。
以防你好奇我为什么如此看好传统存储(legacy memory)…… 它们的涨价幅度似乎比 $NBIS 今天报告的 GPU 租赁 +17-21% 或太诱村田(Taiyo-Murata) 类型的 MLCC 涨价要极端得多。 预计下半年(H2)的涨价预测： - SLC NAND：下半年比上半年 +120-170% - 高容量 NOR：下半年比上半年 +90-110% - ~DDR3/DDR4：Q3 +50% - DDR2：Q3 +35-40% - LPDDR：Q3 +20% 或更多 - DDR1、旧款 LPDDR 和 PSRAM：也在上涨 作为一个综合视角…… 其中很多是在上半年已有涨价(例如 SLC NAND 上半年涨 130-150%)的基础上叠加的，因此 2026 年累计涨幅达到 +406%-575%。 这比上游晶圆 COGS 涨价(例如 $PSMC 的 DRAM 晶圆 +45%)对整体合并净利润的影响更大。 所以我预计许多传统存储无晶圆厂(fabless)公司的 Q3 财报会非常亮眼(cook)。
英文原文
Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook
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Sivers获行业认可，产能升级跻身T1梯队，并与中国厂商合作。
顺便提一下，$SIVE 在 Digitimes 上也有报道，这值得赞赏，表明其在瑞典之外获得了行业认可。我认为 Sivers 建设 1 亿+ 连续波分布反馈 (CW DFB) 激光器产能，迫使行业重新审视其模型，并带来了更多的关注。因为它如果顺利实现产能爬坡，将使 Sivers 进入与 $COHR、住友、古河、$AVGO、Landmark 和 $LITE 并列的 T1 激光器产能讨论中。除此之外，2026 年 CIOE 的渠道调研非常有意义，因为业界发现 Sivers 正在与中国可插拔光模块厂商合作，并在当地设立办公室。这让我想起当初我在 OFC 指出 $SIVE 和 $JBL 在 1.6T 长距光模块 (LRO) 上的合作时，没人相信这种联系，直到官方发布新闻稿。总之，很高兴看到这家小公司茁壮成长。
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$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up
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NVDA半数员工身价超2500万，证明其未因宏观恐慌而抛售。
作为明天美联储决议前的一点打气数据：据报道，$NVDA 50% 的员工身价现已超过 2500 万美元。他们并非通过在每次宏观恐慌或加息前抛售（paperhanding）股票才达到这一数字的。
英文原文
Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g
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驳斥克拉默观点，基于基本面看好内存与存储股，中期看多 Leopold 持仓。
今天看到吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）支持对冲基金做空 Leopold 关于 $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix 的“胡言乱语”式看涨观点。同时克拉默称 $CRWD 为“必买”。我不确定克拉默是否看到一家被贴上“网络安全”标签的 2410 亿美元市值公司就认为其安全，而忽略了所有基本面。但就 CrowdStrike 而言，这是一家 2028 财年远期市盈率（Forward P/E）约 145 倍、营收同比增长 26% 的公司，克拉默却认为它是“必买”。然后看看 Leopold 做多的 AI 资本支出受益主题。像 $SKHY / 三星在 $DRAM 领域……分析师预测 2027 财年远期市盈率仅约 2.8-3 倍。-> 三星签订至 2031 年的长期协议（LTA）（70% 产能）以确保耐用性…… -> SK Hynix 提供最低价格底线 + 无价格上限类型的合同。-> 未来一年内存短缺将更加严峻。-> DRAM/NAND 占超大规模云厂商资本支出的比例更高（Trendforce 估计为 68%）。-> 2027 年超大规模云厂商资本支出预测全部上调。至于 $SNDK，2030 年自由现金流（FCF）利润率预计达 50%，毛利率达 80%。我唯一不同意 Situational Awareness 持仓的是 $CRWV，因为债务利息侵蚀自由现金流，但我可以对 $BE、$INTC、$AMD 等提出类似的看涨论点。短期尚不确定，但中期来看：鉴于压倒性的基本面，很难不认为 Leopold 的持仓会走出与克拉默截然相反（Inverse Cramer）的走势。
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I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.
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NOR/SLC NAND严重短缺，ESMT因高密度产品受益最大，强烈看多。
NOR Flash“严重供应短缺”，高密度产品下半年持续涨价90-110%。 我想知道谁同时销售高密度NOR和SLC NAND？*咳咳，$ESMT* 上半年涨幅： NOR：+100–120% SLC NAND：+130–150% 下半年涨幅： 高密度NOR：下半年90-110% SLC NAND：~70–75%。 显然还有华邦电子/宏碁/兆易创新等其他厂商，但我对ESMT的观点和持仓是，相对于其体量，它是此次短缺的最大受益者。（他们销售NOR：>256Mb） 适度的看空部分是： “对于128Mb及以下的中低容量产品，中国供应商的额外产能正在逐步上线。 因此，消费级产品的价格上涨预计将趋于温和” 然而，这一更新对传统内存厂商的盈利来说，压倒性地看多。 让ASP（平均售价）涨价游戏继续吧。
英文原文
NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.
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讽刺投资者无视三星长期协议与低估值，仅因AI放缓言论而恐慌卖出。
曼·雷：你做多三星吗？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：三星拥有延伸至2031年的存储长期协议(LTA)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：而且它交易在约2.8倍的2027年预期市盈率(P/E)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：所以你在买入三星？ 帕特里克：不，因为X说AI放缓会导致存储崩盘，我在下跌4%时卖出。
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Man Ray: are you long Samsung? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung? Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown
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指出因战争导致的油轮运输瓶颈使BWET一年内暴涨。
@aleabitoreddit 你错过了因“特朗普”为内塔尼亚胡发动战争而导致的 $BWET 油轮运输瓶颈。一年内从 10 美元涨到 700 美元。
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@aleabitoreddit You missed the $BWET tanker shipping bottleneck due to Drumpf's war for Netanyahu. $10 to $700 in a year.
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Leopold买入多只半导体股票期权，因隐含波动率高而不意外。
看起来“情境感知”又回来了： 消息人士称，Leopold 购买了 $AMD、$BE、$CRWV 和 $DRAM 的期权。 并且在 $SKHY 和 $SNDK 等其他股票上也有活跃操作。 鉴于整体期权隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)相当高，这并不令人意外。 https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
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Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
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暗示某只被隐藏代码的股票具有AI瓶颈股特征。
如果你遮住股票代码，你会以为这是一只AI瓶颈概念股。
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If you hid the ticker, you would think this was an AI bottleneck name.
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Nike只需做一件事即可挽救品牌形象。
$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象。
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$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象
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支持HOOD，赞同需明确代币化股票监管。
@rektusd101 我实际上在这里支持 $HOOD，但同意 $AMC CEO 的一个狭隘观点：美国需要更清晰的代币化股票(tokenized equities)监管，以便它们能在各州常规提供。仅为那些缺少背景信息的人：https://t.co/aRmgiTcyW4
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@rektusd101 I actually support $HOOD here, but agree with the $AMC CEO a narrow point: That US needs clearer regulations on tokenized equities so they can be offered regularly in the states. Just for people who are missing context: https://t.co/aRmgiTcyW4
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ESMT 8 月收入同比大增，两月环比增 63%。
更新一下我关于 ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3 内存观点。他们公布了 8 月收入（台湾有时按月披露）： 6 月收入：约 1.53 亿美元 7 月：约 2.14 亿美元 8 月（最新）：约 2.49 亿美元，对比去年同期的 3530 万美元 尽管据报道存在 https://t.co/Ww5IMRW1LW 的情况，月收入在两个月内仍增长了约 63%。
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Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting): June revenue: ~$153M July: ~$214M August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year) Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly https://t.co/Ww5IMRW1LW
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HOOD本周开始分发质押资产，构成实质性利好。
@sherlycrypt 根据 Vlad 的说法，本周开始分发，这对 $HOOD 来说是实质性的利好（质押承诺是很久以前的事了） https://t.co/VXXpB3VuOY
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@sherlycrypt According to Vlad it's starting to be being distributed this week, which is the material thing for $HOOD (the pledge was awhile back) https://t.co/VXXpB3VuOY
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博主重申其年初对IQE的投资论点早于其他材料股事件。
@KhalidIshaq85 是的？我在今年第一季度撰写了关于 $IQE 的投资论点，当时 $MTSI、$TSEM 和其他材料相关事件尚未发生。https://t.co/jTGZ5JvK44
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@KhalidIshaq85 Yes? I wrote my thesis on $IQE Q1 this year before $MTSI, $TSEM and the other material events came about. https://t.co/jTGZ5JvK44
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IQE获量子点龙头订单，利好ALMU等量子点概念股。
信不信由你，$IQE 实际上是量子点(Quantum Dot)晶圆代工领域的领导者。今天 IQE 宣布与 Quintessent（量子点领域的顶级玩家）达成购买协议。“随着量子点激光器进入客户采样阶段。”你们那些关注量子点的哥们，比如 $ALMU、QD Laser (6613) 等，可能终于要开始起飞了。
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$IQE is actually a quantum dot foundry leader believe it or not. Today IQE announced a purchase agreement with Quintessent (top player in the QD space). “As quantum dot lasers move to customer sampling.” Your QD bros like $ALMU, QD Laser (6613), and others might finally start https://t.co/67DFkr7Kei
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看好SIVE激光器产能规模及CPO放量带来的定价权
@NFTs_Mvp 是的，我非常惊喜，$SIVE 正在瞄准的激光器产能规模巨大。而且 2027 年第四季度的运营时间比我预期的要早得多（大约在共封装光学(CPO)激光器开始规模化出货时）。在供应短缺期间，我预计西方激光器的平均售价(ASP)将拥有更强的定价权，因为
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@NFTs_Mvp Yes surprised in a very good way, the amount of laser capacity $SIVE is targeting is enormous. And Q4 2027 operation is a lot sooner than I expected (around initial cpo scale up laser shipments) During shortages, I expect western laser ASP to have stronger pricing power as
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因管理层明确长期目标及新产能指引，博主修正了对混合制造资本支出的看空观点。
@Sigurd_Drivenes 我很高兴管理层终于对其长期目标提供了清晰的说明。 鉴于新的产能目标，我改变了对他们混合制造模型资本支出（Capex）的负面看法。
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@Sigurd_Drivenes I’m glad management finally provided clarity on their long term goals. Changed my negative view about their hybrid manufacturing model capex given new capacity targets.
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SIVE扩产InP激光器，隐含年营收潜力达6.25亿至12.5亿美元。
$SIVE 今天宣布扩大在格拉斯哥的磷化铟(InP)制造产能。新产能目标为：年产约1亿颗连续波(CW)分布反馈(DFB)激光器。按 Sivers 历史上每8激光器阵列50-100美元的定价推算，隐含的年营收产能约为6.25亿-12.5亿美元（非 https://t.co/tRg1XTFeg4
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$SIVE announced today that it is expanding InP manufacturing in Glasgow. The new capacity target is: ~100 million CW DFB laser annual production. Using Sivers’ historical $50-$100 per 8-laser array pricing, the implied revenue capacity might be ~$625M-$1.25B/year (not https://t.co/tRg1XTFeg4
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非高增长AI巨头财报后遭抛售，博主将分析CRDO。
@wannabepanacea 如果你不像 $NVDA 或 $AVGO 那样受产能限制且每年增长 70-100%，显然财报发布后你会遭遇抛售。 稍后会看看 $CRDO 的财报，要跟踪的公司实在太多了。 https://t.co/b7KBFFSqvB
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@wannabepanacea If you're not capacity constrained and growing 70-100% a year like $NVDA or $AVGO, apparently you'll get sold off on earnings. Will take a look at $CRDO earnings in a bit, there's quite a lot of companies to track. https://t.co/b7KBFFSqvB
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博通指引大幅超预期，需求强劲且将改善供应。
来了，$AVGO 财报电话会澄清业绩不及预期。博通(Broadcom) 预期： FY27E：约 1150 亿美元（增长 100%） FY28E：约 2300 亿美元（增长 100%），认为分析师此前建模约为 1800 亿美元。 实际需求实际上超过了这一展望，博通将努力改善供应。这远高于华尔街预期，https://t.co/zXCxFRhUaR
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There we go, $AVGO earnings call to clarify miss. Broadcom expects: FY27E: ~$115B (+100% growth) FY28E: ~$230B (+100%), think analysts were modeling ~$180B. Demand actually exceeds this outlook, and Broadcom will work to improve supply. This is way above street estimates, https://t.co/zXCxFRhUaR
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英伟达受产能制约，实际增速低于无约束潜力。
$NVDA 告诉摩根大通... 如果不受产能限制，其营收同比(Y/Y)增长可能超过 100%。 但最终给出的增长预测约为 70%，因为这是英伟达认为其能够供应的水平。 FY27 预估：营收约 4010 亿美元... FY28：按 70% 增长约为 6820 亿美元，或在不受限情况下超过 8020 亿美元。 - 英伟达投资者关系 https://t.co/6cKhZn3frV
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$NVDA told JP Morgan... That their revenue could increase more than 100%+ Y/Y unconstrained. But ended up giving a ~70% growth projection because that's what Nvidia believes they can supply. FY27 est: ~$401B revenue... FY28: ~$682B at 70% or >$802B unconstrained. - Nvidia IR https://t.co/6cKhZn3frV
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建议SIVE聚焦核心业务并解雇向媒体妥协的高管。
我不想在这里扮演积极投资者(Activist Investor)的角色： 但我希望最近的暴跌能给 $SIVE 传递一个信息：投资者基础+专注领域才是真正重要的（不是瑞典，不是无线通信）。 以及他们应该解雇那些向当地媒体批评低头的任何董事会成员或高管： 还有
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I don’t want to play investor activism here: But I hope the recent crash sends a message to $SIVE what investor base + focus really matters (not Sweden, not wireless). As well as that they should fire whatever board member or executive gave into local media criticisms: And
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博主澄清无意参与治理，重申看好某公司运营并继续持仓。
@Matrix_B0SS @SiversSemicond 我不想加入任何董事会或成为积极股东(Activist Investor)，请别再推荐我了哈哈！我只是分享我对他们如何成为像 $LITE 那样公司的看法，而且从运营层面看，他们处于一个极佳的位置。归根结底，这取决于管理层对其愿景的执行能力，而这部分我无法掌控。我仍持有我的头寸，但人们应自行判断所发生的情况。
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@Matrix_B0SS @SiversSemicond I don’t want to be on any board or be an activist investor, pls stop recommending me lol! I’m just putting out my thoughts on how I see them become a $LITE type company, and operationally they’re in an amazing spot. In the end, it all comes down to the leadership’s execution on their vision, and that part is out of my hands. I’m still holding my positions, but people should make their own judgement on what they see happening.
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看好AAOI 2027年表现及AXTI衬底瓶颈，提示短期抛压与稀释风险。
@DZMakeMoney 我无法就人们应如何处理交易提供建议。就个人而言，我认为 $AAOI 在 2027 年将表现优异，且 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈/卡脖子环节已得到验证。对于 AXT 而言，更多取决于其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 等协议带来的平均售价(ASP)提升。AXT 近期因宏观因素受高贝塔 AI 板块抛售的负面影响。AOI 有一笔令人失望的 6 亿美元可转换优先股(ATM)发行，造成大量短期压力。但这不影响其 2027 年光模块(transceiver)需求可见度，且他们应很快完成 1.6T 认证。过去两个月出现大幅回调，但取决于你发现什么有吸引力，也有许多机会。
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@DZMakeMoney I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades. Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated. With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is negatively affected by high beta AI sector selloff recently with macro. AOI has a very disappointing $600m ATM so that’s a lot of near term overhang. But doesn’t affect their 2027 transceiver demand visibility and they should finish 1.6T qualifications soon. Past 2 month has seen major corrections, but there’s a lot of opportunity too depending on what you find compelling
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SIVERS 运营理想但沟通糟糕致股价大跌，属执行失败。
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea 两者皆有，主要围绕沟通。运营层面看起来理想，拥有捷普(Jabil)、格芯(GlobalFoundries)、Ayar 以及约 6 个可插拔模块项目，且在重大瓶颈期拥有 2 个晶圆厂产能。$JBL 的时间线符合我的预期。但沟通重点集中在短期无线/收入+财务数据以安抚当地投资者，而非共封装光学(CPO)等其他重大未来经济机会。沟通也非常糟糕且含糊其辞，尤其是与两个月前相比，关于纳斯达克上市(Nasdaq listing)的表述。这是我非常不满的唯一实质性延误，因为尽管完成了 57 亿瑞典克朗的机构融资轮，这仍属于执行失败。CFO 添加的法律措辞毫无理由地引入了不确定性，而此前并无多少不确定性。市场毫不犹豫地让 $SIVERS 股价因这种愚蠢的规避措辞下跌 28%。
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@halldj00 @wannabepanacea Bit of both, mainly around communication. Operationally things look ideal, they have Jabil, globalfoundries, Ayar, and ~6 pluggable engagements, with 2 foundry capacity during a major bottleneck. $JBL timelines were in line with what I expected. But communication focused around focused on near term wireless/revenue + financials to appease local investors. Instead of significant future economic opportunities for CPO/others. Communication was also horrendous and noncommittal, especially around Nasdaq listing compared to two months ago. This was the only material delay I’m very unhappy with, since it’s an execution failure despite having the 57 SEK institutional fundraising round. And the legal language that the CFO added just introduces uncertainty for no reason, when there wasn’t much before then. Market definitely not hestitate sending sivers down 28% from that stupid language hedging
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批评CEO受瑞典文化影响，放弃长期执行转向短期无线收入，应解雇推手。
@Broasted_King @wannabepanacea 他们自我施加了瑞典的“高罂粟花综合征”（Tall Poppy Syndrome），从雄心勃勃的执行转向“评估市场状况”，从谈论2028年的机会转向短期无线收入。任何促使CEO像另一家瑞典公司那样行动和沟通的人都应该被解雇。
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@Broasted_King @wannabepanacea They self imposed Swedish tall poppy syndrome and went from ambitious execution. To “evaluating market conditions” and went from talking about 2028 opportunities to near term wireless revenue Whoever pushed the CEO to act and communicate like another Swedish company should get fired
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批评 Sivers 管理层缺乏重组紧迫感，忽视光子学机遇。
@wannabepanacea 管理层的感觉与我日益脱节。Sivers 本可利用当前的瓶颈围绕光子学进行彻底重组。利用美国资本加速时间表，并借助纳斯达克(NASDAQ)推动 1.6T/共封装光学(CPO) 的进一步增长。但感觉不到紧迫感，尤其是在上市时间表上。我也真心不理解为何持续强调卫星通信(SATCOM)/无线业务，这部分本应剥离。或者那些相对于光子学总可寻址市场(TAM)而言微不足道的短期合同价值。完全没有提及 Ayar、格芯(GlobalFoundries) 以及美国投资者关心的任何其他大项目。
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@wannabepanacea Management feels increasingly misaligned with my expections Sivers could use the current bottleneck to radically restructure around photonics. Use US capital to speed up timelines, and leverage NASDAQ for further growth with 1.6T/CPO. But got no sense of urgency, especially on listing timelines. I also genuinely don't understand continuous emphasis on SATCOM/Wireless which would be better off divested. Or the near term contract values that are invisible relative to photonics TAM. Not a single mention of Ayar, globalfoundries, and any other big program that US investors care about.
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看好NVDA高增长及类似半导体ETF的持仓结构
@lijiu163076 $NVDA 明年将以产能受限的 70% 速度增长，这好得离谱。 我的观点是，投资英伟达很难出错，因为它几乎就像一只半导体 ETF？他们现在持有 $INTC、$MRVL、$LITE、$COHR、$NBIS 和联发科的不错份额。
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@lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good. My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now.
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持有IREN，看好其与Anthropic合作，但担忧巨额资本支出。
@KnightCapitalYT 我的意思是，我现在确实持有 1 股 $IREN，所以我很希望看到他们与 Anthropic 达成交易。 有泄露的内部备忘录显示，Anthropic 正在寻求在澳大利亚获得更多资源，而这恰好是 IREN 大力投资的国家。 不过，在当前宏观环境下，250-300 亿美元的资本支出(Capex)数字总是让人望而生畏，尽管他们已通过预付款获得了大量融资。
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@KnightCapitalYT I mean I do have 1 single share of $IREN now, so I'd love to see them get a deal with Anthropic. There were leaked memos suggesting that Anthropic was looking to secure more in Australia, and that just so happens to be the country Iren was heavily investing in. Buuut, the $25-30B capex number is always a bit daunting during current macro, despite securing a lot of financing via prepayments.
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博主认为某事件可能发生在类似窗口，并关注SNDK收盘异动。
@mykwantitative 是的，可能在那个类似的时间窗口内也是如此。看到 $SNDK 在收盘时垂直拉升挺有意思的。
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@mykwantitative Yep, probably that as well in a similar window. Seeing $SNDK go vertical at close was interesting