· 个股论点
@WangHou4128 我不认为我（或任何人）能准确预测底部。否则如果他们真知道，早就做每周期权了。 不过很难想象某些标的会跌得更低，比如 $AAOI 的市值已接近1倍年化远期营收。$POET 跌幅巨大，其市值约10.8亿美元，而现金就有约8亿美元。 总体而言，即使 Leopond 也认为当前估值极具吸引力，所以他正在募资买入下跌。不过谁说得准呢？ 但从中长期来看，就我个人的投资逻辑而言，我预计一旦营收预测兑现为盈利，行情就会展开。 我重申 $AAOI 的营收拐点在2027年上半年末……$NBIS 的营收拐点在2026年第四季度，等等，这是我的个人估算。 当然，在此之前会有大量波动。
@WangHou4128 I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.