$NBIS
观点汇总
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Sereny 对 NBIS 的核心论点基于其作为“新型云服务商”在 AI 算力供应链中的关键瓶颈地位。他认为，随着微软等超大规模云厂商自建芯片导致算力紧张，NBIS 成为英伟达维持护城河、防止利润率被压缩的战略盟友。其核心催化剂是与微软签署的 170 亿美元五年合同，这使其收入预期翻三倍且去风险化，相比 CoreWeave 等竞品，NBIS 融资条款更优、估值更低。 观点演变上，他早期视其为高增长标的，9 月确认大单后转为“最高确信度”持仓。他明确表态在股价 90 美元附近及回调时大幅建仓，累计投入超百万美元，并建议全仓持有。他看重其 GPU 租赁商角色及英伟达背书，认为当前市值严重低估其远期营收，目标价看至 225 美元，视其为未来一年最具非对称回报潜力的 AI 基础设施标的。
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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传统存储价格累计暴涨超400%，预计Q3无晶圆厂财报将大幅超预期。
以防你好奇我为什么如此看好传统存储(legacy memory)…… 它们的涨价幅度似乎比 $NBIS 今天报告的 GPU 租赁 +17-21% 或太诱村田(Taiyo-Murata) 类型的 MLCC 涨价要极端得多。 预计下半年(H2)的涨价预测： - SLC NAND：下半年比上半年 +120-170% - 高容量 NOR：下半年比上半年 +90-110% - ~DDR3/DDR4：Q3 +50% - DDR2：Q3 +35-40% - LPDDR：Q3 +20% 或更多 - DDR1、旧款 LPDDR 和 PSRAM：也在上涨 作为一个综合视角…… 其中很多是在上半年已有涨价(例如 SLC NAND 上半年涨 130-150%)的基础上叠加的，因此 2026 年累计涨幅达到 +406%-575%。 这比上游晶圆 COGS 涨价(例如 $PSMC 的 DRAM 晶圆 +45%)对整体合并净利润的影响更大。 所以我预计许多传统存储无晶圆厂(fabless)公司的 Q3 财报会非常亮眼(cook)。
英文原文
Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook
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甲骨文GPU高溢价续租证伪快速折旧论，利好AI算力租赁及英伟达。
虽然是周末，但我惊讶于自己错过了 $ORCL 财报中的这一信息。这对 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的影响相当积极，因为：甲骨文表示所有用于续租的 GPU 容量均以高于此前合同 20% 的溢价被重新售出。大部分设备机龄在 4 年以上……因此，这再次证伪了 Burry 关于 GPU 快速折旧的论点。而 $NVDA 和 Neocloud 阵营则赢了。
英文原文
It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
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披露 Situational Awareness 基金 Q2 十大重仓股及持仓金额。
刚查看了 Leopold 的 Situational Awareness 基金截至 6 月 30 日的 Q2 13F 最新持仓： 1. $SNDK - 56.74 亿美元 2. $MU - 55.74 亿美元 3. $BE - 18.99 亿美元 4. $TSM - 12.65 亿美元 5. $NBIS - 12.32 亿美元 6. $CRWV - 7.445 亿美元 7. $CORZ - 6.656 亿美元 8. $STM - 5.843 亿美元（新增） 9. $APLD - 4.69 亿美元 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
英文原文
Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
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看好NVDA高增长及类似半导体ETF的持仓结构
@lijiu163076 $NVDA 明年将以产能受限的 70% 速度增长，这好得离谱。 我的观点是，投资英伟达很难出错，因为它几乎就像一只半导体 ETF？他们现在持有 $INTC、$MRVL、$LITE、$COHR、$NBIS 和联发科的不错份额。
英文原文
@lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good. My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now.
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无视宏观波动，因AI资本支出强劲且需求失衡，坚持做多AI核心标的。
宏观环境显然在过去几个月削减了高贝塔AI的估值。但我试图专注于基本面。 如果你好奇我的看法： 我们看到了创纪录的长期协议(LTA)可见性： - 存储(至2031年)、光子学(至2029-2030年)等 - $NBIS、$SOL等，尽管资本支出巨大，但算力需求仍存在巨大失衡。 - 加上创纪录的预测（$NVDA 2027年增长70%，$SMCI新增服务器订单超600亿美元等）。 对比： 令人不安的宏观环境： - 沃什表示，如果核心通胀未明确回归2%，美联储“还有更多工作要做”。 - 7月PCE同比为3.7% - 7月就业报告新增就业减少2.3万，失业率4.1% - 10年期美债收益率高企/30年期创2007年以来新高 - 伊朗紧张局势持续 - 日元跌至160/韩国两次加息 且近期加息25个基点的概率为40/60。 这肯定会对融资产生影响，且第三/四阶效应太多，我个人无法完全映射。 我不是宏观专家，但我的看法是： AI建设将继续，预计明年上游投入超1.3万亿美元资本支出，流经许多瓶颈和卡点。 虽然市场削减了远期估值并转向当前盈利/防御性公司。 我不知道会发生什么，尤其是加息概率几乎五五开，且特朗普的帖子可能一夜之间改变情绪。 只要我没看到超大规模云厂商削减资本支出或需求波动的迹象。 尽管宏观波动，我保持做多，因为我想持有控制AI建设未来格局的公司。 如果宏观环境有任何好转迹象，高贝塔股通常恢复最快。
英文原文
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals. If you're curious about my take though: We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend. - combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc). vs. uncomfortable macro where: - Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%. - July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y - July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1% -10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007 - Iran tensions continuing - Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes. There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map. I'm not a macro expert but my take is: The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints. While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies. I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight. As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering. I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout. And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
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英伟达投资联发科巩固推理地位，或促使AMD与博通结盟。
没错，$NVDA 投资 35 亿美元进入联发科(Mediatek)。 这感觉像是英伟达(Nvidia)正在扮演下一代专用集成电路(ASIC)赢家如 $MRVL / 联发科(Mediatek)的“造王者”，其二级效应是侵蚀 $AVGO 的地位。 这一策略 playbook 类似于他们此前针对像 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 这样的新云厂商(Neoclouds)（相对于超大规模云项目）所采取的做法。 帮助培育下一代领导者，然后使它们在财务和战略上与英伟达保持一致。 我认为这很精彩，但此类举动可能会促使 $AMD、$AVGO 和某些超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)走得更近。 无论如何，此举巩固了英伟达在推理(inference)领域的战略地位（此前超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 曾是长期的看空论点）。
英文原文
Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs) Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia. I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together. Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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英伟达投资Nebius后，NBIS获Groq3 LPX优先量产权。
$NVDA，继其$200亿交易后……宣布Groq3 LPX现已全面投产。 $NBIS 通过 Nebius token factory 成为首个采用者。 - 在运行 Gemma 4 31B 的 Artificial Analysis 基准测试中，达到 3,400 tok/s，支持 10 万 token 上下文 - 响应速度比最近的替代品快 4 倍 引起我注意的是……英伟达对 Nebius 投资$20 亿后的一份旧新闻稿。 其中提到将支持其“早期采用英伟达最新一代”架构。 看来我们在这里看到了这种特殊待遇。
英文原文
$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.
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博主回顾粉丝破百万及观点验证，调侃身份危机并询问下一步方向。
正经历中期 X 平台身份危机： ✓ 看到 $AXTI 到 $NBIS 的 2025 年观点被所有人验证 ✓ 我们得到了 $AMD 头巾 ✓ 意外成为 X 上订阅人数第 1 的人 ✓ 中国“白发”昵称 ✓ 100 万粉丝 仍在此追踪观点，但下一个支线任务是什么？
英文原文
Having a mid-X identity crisis rn: ✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone ✓ we got $AMD bandanas ✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident ✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames ✓ 1M followers Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?
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博主希望AAOI回调至80美元加仓，并看好激光、新云及存储板块2027年需求。
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI 其实是我希望股价能回到 80 美元以便我能加仓的那只股票。 激光相关个股在 2027 年全年的需求可见度（Demand Visibility）简直令人难以置信…… 像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）或像 $SNDK 这样的存储（Memory）概念股也是如此。
英文原文
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
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AI财报强劲，空头被迫认输离场。
@mikealfred 空头们在看到了从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 的所有人工智能财报后，又要回去冬眠了。
英文原文
@mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.
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尽管积压订单充足，但高额利息侵蚀现金流，持续看空Coreweave。
@R42t0r 自去年以来，我一直非常明确地看空 $CRWV，相较于 $NBIS 和其他新云厂商。需求并非真正的问题，其超1000亿美元的积压订单，营收及59%的调整后EBITDA利润率看起来不错。但潜在的融资方式真的很糟糕……Coreweave的债务利息（例如Q2利息支出达6.4亿美元）过度侵蚀了自由现金流……作为参考，该数字约占Coreweave 15.1亿美元调整后EBITDA的42%。
英文原文
@R42t0r I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
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NBIS 业绩超预期，需求可见度极高，电力指引上调，看多。
$NBIS 的前景再次令人难以置信。 营收 5.823 亿美元（同比 +454%，环比 +46%），AI 云业务调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率约 50%。手头现金 80.4 亿美元。 重申财务指引（2026 年营收：30-34 亿美元；2026 年底年度经常性收入 ARR：70-90 亿美元），我原本希望会上调指引，但这已经是巨大的增长了。 重点不在于本季度财务数据，而是这些信号： - “我们今天就能以这些条款卖出 2027 年的全部产能。”需求可见度极高。 - “4 份客户协议，每份合同价值平均超过 10 亿美元。” - 约 70% 的 Q2 交易包含客户预付款。 - 签约电力指引再次上调，从约 4+ GW 升至 5 GW。（这曾是相对于 $IREN 辩论中的担忧点，但 Nebius 的电力指引持续飙升）。 - 预计 2026 年预付款超过 90 亿美元，并表示拥有超过 400 亿美元的承诺订单。 - 每兆瓦年度合同价值持续飙升（Q3 短期容量交易 >4000 万美元/兆瓦）。 看空故事依然存在（例如 56.6 亿美元的高资本支出和当前 GAAP 净亏损），但需求极度强劲且可见度极高，AI 云调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率持续提升（24% -> 45% -> 50% 的演进）。 我们昨天通过各大超大规模云厂商 (Hyperscaler) 的财报和 $CRWV 的积压订单已经大致看透了这一点，很高兴在 Weebius（应为 Nebius 笔误）的财报中看到印证。
英文原文
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
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OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
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博主澄清推文为讽刺伯里交易，提醒勿当真。
@MDjavanmard 这是一条关于迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）做多 $LULU 做空 $NBIS 交易的讽刺内容，如果你没看懂这个梗的话（千万别当真）。
英文原文
@MDjavanmard This is satire about Michael Burry's long $LULU short $NBIS trade if you didn't get the reference (don't actually take this post seriously).
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通过对比AI云需求与Nebius基本面，演示做空Nebius并做多Lulu的对冲策略。
今天我在写一篇周末指南，讲解如何对做空 $NBIS 进行尽职调查(DD)： 首先，查看超大规模云服务商的财报以观察 AI 云需求的传导效应： > $GOOGL：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $AMZN：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $META：财报显示可用容量的价格高于预期。 现在，来看看 Nebius： -> $NBIS：年化经常性收入(ARR) 在 Q4 增长数百%至 70-90 亿美元。利润率增长，并指引签约电力超 4GW。 -> 预计 Uber/Waymo 拆分，更聚焦于 Avride -> 预计 Clickhouse 每季度快速增长。 看起来做空理由不充分！但接下来，你需要对冲吗？ -> 哇！一位 $NIKE 品牌高管，在股价过去 5 年下跌 75% 后，去了 $LULU 拯救该品牌？Lululemon 看起来不错。 结论：做空 Nebius 并做多 $LULU
英文原文
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU
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博主转向关注上游瓶颈，预计能源和新云将因算力短缺跑赢。
@Schulz_Research 态势感知/Leopold 关于美国向推理(推理)和巨大能源需求转移的观点完全正确。我在2025年曾对 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等新型云服务商(新云)持有类似论点。但我个人更转向关注上游瓶颈(上游瓶颈)和网络(网络)。不幸的是，基金未能完全熬过回撤。我们在内存集中度(内存集中度)上有重叠，但鉴于算力/容量短缺，我预计来自 $BE、$TE 的能源/电网或如 $SHAZ/$IREN 的新云将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
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Citadel清算情境感知基金后，AI及半导体板块次日大幅反弹。
Citadel 真的刚刚清算了 Situational Awareness（情境感知基金）…… 然后在第二天拉起了整个市场？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 以及其他许多股票。这必须是我见过的最疯狂的清算之一 https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
英文原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
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博主认为当前估值极具吸引力，重申AAOI和NBIS的营收拐点预期。
@WangHou4128 我不认为我（或任何人）能准确预测底部。否则如果他们真知道，早就做每周期权了。 不过很难想象某些标的会跌得更低，比如 $AAOI 的市值已接近1倍年化远期营收。$POET 跌幅巨大，其市值约10.8亿美元，而现金就有约8亿美元。 总体而言，即使 Leopond 也认为当前估值极具吸引力，所以他正在募资买入下跌。不过谁说得准呢？ 但从中长期来看，就我个人的投资逻辑而言，我预计一旦营收预测兑现为盈利，行情就会展开。 我重申 $AAOI 的营收拐点在2027年上半年末……$NBIS 的营收拐点在2026年第四季度，等等，这是我的个人估算。 当然，在此之前会有大量波动。
英文原文
@WangHou4128 I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
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博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。
我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。
英文原文
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
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Waymo拟与Uber拆分，印证博主此前对Uber合作策略失误的判断。
事实如此，据《金融时报》报道，$GOOGL Waymo 正考虑与 $UBER 拆分。我去年认为 Uber 与 Waymo 合作是个糟糕的选择……因为 Uber 只是 Google 在扩张过程中所需的分发渠道。我认为 $NBIS Avride、其他中立玩家或垂直整合才是最佳路径。如今，其合作伙伴 Waymo 看起来成了 Uber 最强的颠覆者。
英文原文
There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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英伟达披露持有Nebius 9.3%股份，提振市场情绪。
如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后上涨。 $NVDA 通过 SEC 文件披露其持有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。 这其实不算太新，因为追溯至英伟达现有的 119 万股持股加上约 21 万股的 20 亿美元预付费认股权证（Pre-funded Warrant）。 但英伟达作为 Neocloud 领导者的主要股东，对情绪面是大利好。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
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Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
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欧洲投资者保守晒2%收益嘲笑科技股暴跌，但反映的是文化差异而非技术判断。
X平台的好处之一是能观察到文化差异：我看到一群欧洲旁观账户，躺着收银行存款利息，年内收益2%。现在冒出来说，当初投资$AAOI做光子学或三星做内存的都是赌徒。终于等到从$MRVL到$NBIS再到$INTC的所有AI相关股票在暴涨数倍后崩盘了，然后在那里庆祝。我认为主要是对技术变革缺乏理解，加上资本保值文化与成长型投资文化的碰撞。
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The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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NBIS签Reflection算力协议后股价反跌，博主暗示背后另有合作伙伴。
$NBIS 与 Reflection AI 签署超 10 亿美元算力协议，通过 2029 年获取 GB300 访问权。Reflection 此前也与 $SPCX 签署了数十亿美元协议。鉴于 $NBIS 今日闻讯下跌 5%，这至少可以说很有趣。此外……完成此事的合作伙伴 https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
英文原文
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E