$NBIS
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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称NBIS在暴跌后表现不错。
回复 @EestiRadar：很高兴 $NBIS 最终表现不错，业绩大超预期后那段回撤确实很残酷。
原推 ↗英文原文
@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.
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比较Neocloud公司融资结构：NBIS优于CRWV和IREN。
回复 @BKCY314：融资结构差异非常大，$CRWV 正被债务利息活活吞噬。 $IREN 因为过度 ATM，股权增值很少。 $NBIS 刚刚好，而且还有来自 Avride 子公司和 ClickHouse 持股的分部估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
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复盘NBIS作为最高信念Neocloud选择从84涨到260。
看到我最高信念的 Neocloud 选择 $NBIS 走得很好，很有意思。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 行业将成为重大主题的论点。 然后选出了王者。 -> Nebius 在整个行业里排名第一，从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 都不如它。 84美元 -> 260美元。 论点被市场验证。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
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反思应更信任黄仁勋对MRVL的万亿美元评价。
好吧，经历 $NBIS 后，我确实应该更相信 Jensen 对 $MRVL 的判断。 这次他实际上给 Marvell 了1万亿美元目标。 Marvell 因一句话上涨35%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
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说明NBIS对应META/MSFT，谷歌通过Fluidstack与CIFR/WULF做机房交易。
回复 @JonahK44：$NBIS 是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 通过 Fluidstack 做了很多交易，从 $CIFR 到 $WULF，获取更多托管机房。我猜是为了接入更多 TPU。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS
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马克龙宣布NBIS投资80亿欧元建设法国AI云基础设施。
马克龙宣布 $NBIS 投资80亿欧元，在法国建设 AI 云基础设施。 我最喜欢的评论是： “水怎么办？”
原推 ↗英文原文
Macron announces that $NBIS invests €8B to build out AI Cloud Infrastructure in France. This was my favorite comment: “What about the Water” https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3
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不看好CRWV和IREN，认为NBIS是Neocloud中最平衡玩家。
回复 @Anon1pvi：不喜欢 $CRWV，债务利息太高。 至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 从结构上限制了上行。 $NBIS 是 Neocloud 中最恰到好处的玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.
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调侃NBIS有剧情护甲。
天啊，$NBIS 的剧情护甲确认了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy sht, plot armor confirmed with $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt
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用动漫梗称NBIS有剧情护甲。
回复 @luckybibiw1p：我觉得 $NBIS 有 Plot Armor no Jutsu 的力量。
原推 ↗英文原文
@luckybibiw1p I think $NBIS has the power of Plot Armor no Jutsu
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复盘NBIS跑赢Neocloud篮子，接近1000亿市值预测。
$NBIS 有动漫剧情护甲！ 很高兴听说 Weebius 跑赢了市场和 Neocloud 篮子（$IREN / $CIFR）。 去年 MSFT 财报后，我在 Nebius 第四季度财报后给过一个预测：Nebius 会达到1000亿美元市值。 我们现在坐在600亿美元市值，越来越近了！
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8
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NBIS新投资者持股5.6%，作者持仓以来约三倍。
看看谁加入了 $NBIS 队伍。 5.6% 是相当大的持股，也许他现在意识到它比 $IREN 这个垃圾堆好得多。 话虽如此：Nebius 自我去年做多以来现在已经上涨约3倍。 Weebius 有剧情护甲。
原推 ↗英文原文
Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
原推 ↗英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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认为INTC/RKLB/NBIS到2029仍会存在，可让已有仓位复利。
回复 @realstockfox：是的，我很确定 $INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到2029年还会存在…… 不需要不断进入新的/不同的美国仓位，只要让你已有的仓位随时间复利即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.
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解释近期新增台湾/欧洲多头较多，是因为喜欢的美国股名单没变。
人们一直问： 嘿，为什么你最近有 $LPK 或 Foci 这样的台湾/欧洲新多头？ 而美国新名字不多？ 部分原因是，我喜欢的美国股票名单从 $INTC 到 $NBIS 并没有改变。 你总可以让自己喜欢的名字继续成长。
原推 ↗英文原文
People keep asking: Hey why do have new longs with Taiwan/EU stocks recently like $LPK or Foci? And not much with new US ones? It's partly because the list of US stocks I've liked from $INTC to $NBIS hasn't changed. You can always just let the ones you like grow. https://t.co/ostZWjOAAm
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NBIS同期接近三倍而IREN持平或下跌，Neocloud争论已解决。
回复 @Lucha_Stocks：去年11月我和0智商 $IREN 社区有很多争论。 同一时间里，你持有 $IREN 可能持平到负收益，而 $NBIS 接近翻了三倍。 看来那场争论已经以 Weebius 获胜告终。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Lucha_Stocks I was having a lot of debates with the 0 IQ $IREN community last November. You would have been flat to negative on $IREN. While $NBIS close to tripled in the same timeframe. Guess that debate got resolved in Weebius’s favor
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NBIS涨到224，约为去年三倍。
现在……$NBIS 是224美元，约为去年价格的三倍。 你听了吗，朋友？
原推 ↗英文原文
And now… $NBIS is $224, around triple prices from last year. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/WVFKh8d3vy
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SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
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对比NBIS、AEHR和IREN走势，强调IREN表现较差。
回复 @ryansfinance：我觉得你忘了 $NBIS 从90美元 -> 235美元 -> 180美元。 $AEHR 从25美元 -> 110美元 -> 77美元。 而 $IREN 从45美元 -> 70美元 -> 45美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance Think you’re forgetting $NBIS went from $90 -> $235 -> $180. $AEHR went from $25 -> $110 -> $77 While $IREN went from $45 -> $70 -> $45
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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AI板块从NBIS到LITE/AAOI出现普通周一回调。
AI 领域从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 再到 $AAOI，只是普通周一回调？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just your normal Monday correction in the AI space from $NBIS to $LITE to $AAOI? https://t.co/5g3HCAlcA4
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越频繁谈某主题，通常说明越认为它当前未知或低估。
回复 @johnoao：我越多谈某件事……通常说明我越认为它在当前时间框架中未知/低估。 不过它们方向上结果都不错？比如去年底以来的 $LITE、$AXTI、$AAOI、$NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
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随口聊买 SF 广告牌空间做趣味内容
现在 X 上很多人都在聊 AI / 初创公司广告牌。 随手一想：我是不是也可以买一堆旧金山的 billboard 空间来玩？ 不过不放像 $NBIS（照片不是我拍的）那种内容…… 我只是想放点跟 X 有关的有趣东西？ 听起来其实也不贵。 https://t.co/jTPanYy1V3
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of people on X are talking about AI/startup billboards. Just a shower thought: Can’t I just buy a bunch of SF billboard space for fun? But instead of something like $NBIS (not my photo btw)…. I just put something fun related to X? Apparently it’s not expensive. https://t.co/jTPanYy1V3
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盘点自己年内持仓数量越来越多
@beauty_oe 我还忘了 $NBIS 和 $MU，那就变成第 25 个了。我都数不清了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe I forgot $NBIS and $MU too, that would be #25. I'm losing count.
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认为只要 thesis 不破，公司就能继续成长
我不确定大家有没有意识到，只要一个 thesis 没有彻底被证伪，像 $NBIS 这种公司就可以继续成长。 看看过去 15 年的 $AMZN 或 $GOOGL 就知道。 如果你老是“减仓”，往往会先触发税负。很多回撤其实还没大到抵消你已经交掉的税。 等所谓“50% 暴跌”真的发生时，价格可能早就已经复利了几百甚至几千个百分点。 如果你需要花钱，只要仓位到了七位数、八位数甚至九位数，你完全可以借着这些资产去融资，同时继续让它们升值。 NFA，只是我个人观点。你们自己随意，但这非常、非常取决于你选的公司。 像 $IREN 这种垃圾就没法这么做。不过我确实认为 $NBIS 已经站在成为下一个 hyperscaler 的位置上了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
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日文回复：终于看到 NBIS 被正确定价
@beauty_oe 我也真的很高兴 $NBIS 最终拿到了非常不错的结果！虽然有几个月都在跌，但市场终于把它正确定价了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe $NBIS が最終的にすごくいい結果になって本当に嬉しいよ！数ヶ月くらい下がってた時期もあったけど、やっと市場が正しく評価してくれてよかった。
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NBIS 财报强劲并大幅超预期
$NBIS 的财报非常亮眼，现在盘前已经交易到 200 美元以上。 他们重申 2026 年 70-90 亿美元 ARR、40% 调整后 EBITDA margin 预期，远超市场预期。 4 GW 已签约产能，$NVDA 通过扎实的融资结构提供了 63 亿美元资本支持。 很高兴我高置信度的 Neocloud 持仓表现这么好，也很高兴管理层执行得这么出色。 用 Jensen 的话说：“Nebius 会照顾好你们的。”
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”
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Towa 业绩下跌是短期误判的教训
哎，Towa（6315）财报后跌了 20%。 这也是我学到的一个教训：我确实会在某些想法上犯错，尤其是短期时间尺度。 $NBIS 在去年 12 月 / 1 月的时候也是一样…… 但等到半年后，当 thesis 有足够时间兑现时，它已经涨了三位数。 https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
原推 ↗英文原文
Ouch, Towa (6315) down 20% on earnings. Good lesson learned that I do get some ideas wrong. Especially on short term timeframes. Same thing with $NBIS back in Dec/Jan… But it is up triple digits now half a year later when there’s enough time for a thesis to play out. https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
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解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它更像融资机器
正如我之前说的，$IREN 跟 $NBIS 比起来基本就是垃圾。 $NVDA 还没给 $IREN 融资。 所以 IREN 只能想办法通过 60 亿美元 ATM 和其他方式买足 GPU，把 5GW 产能变现。 这本质上就是一台无限稀释机，只是因为它拿到了电力。 我叫 $IREN 持有人 0 IQ，是因为他们只是为了拿到稀释而买入，却不理解融资结构的细节。 Nvidia 确实给了 $NBIS 资金。 而 IREN 只是拿到了一个允许它用 logo 的无风险采购协议。 $IREN 现在基本就是一家营销公司，而其他 Neocloud 才是真正让股权升值的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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解释 NVDA 对 IREN 的支持并不等于真正投资
$NVDA 什么都没投。他们拿到的是一个完全无风险的购买协议，自己没有承担任何投入。 这和可转债不同；可转债是他们借钱给 $IREN，然后按 70 美元转换。 很多人把融资结构的细节混为一谈，但如果他们真给 $NBIS 投了 20 亿美元，那就完全是另一回事。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.
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认为 IREN 的主牛点只是软件收购，但仍不想接稀释
@CookerFlips 某种程度上是这样。$IREN 的主要牛点，如果你愿意忽略噪音的话，其实是他们最近收购了 Mirantis 的软件业务。 但我还是不想去接那种为了买 5GW GPU 产能、被稀释 60 亿美元的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CookerFlips In a sense. The main bull case for $IREN was their software acquisition with Mirantis recently if you want to look past the fluff. Still wouldn't want to be the one to get diluted $6B to fund their 5 GW worth of GPU purchases.
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认为 FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
@AorakiTrading 对，如果没有拿到 2 份 hyperscaler 协议，我不会去建仓。 像 $NBIS 那样的一份大型 $MSFT 合同，就足以让这种小型能源公司发生巨大重估。 但他们拿到的是 2 份，不止 1 份。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements. One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC. But they had 2, not just 1
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庆祝 NBIS 从原始 thesis 后翻倍以上
很高兴看到 $NBIS 自从我最初在约 87 美元时发 thesis 后，终于回到 100%+ 的涨幅。 我去年年底和今年年初都写了很多关于 Nebius 的内容。 我一直看的是 sum of parts：从 Avride 到 Clickhouse，再到它们的资产负债表如何帮助 AI Cloud 扩张。 我当时对 12 月 / 1 月那次大跌的时点有点失望。 但很高兴看到公司持续交付，Nebius 现在是我在整个板块里最喜欢的 Neocloud。 我觉得我们正在见证下一个 hyperscaler 的崛起。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to see $NBIS finally return 100%+ since my original thesis post back at ~$87. I covered Nebius a ton late last year and at the start of this year. Focusing on sum of parts from Avride to Clickhouse to how their balance sheet help them scale up their AI Cloud. Was a little disappointed with timing, in terms of the massive drop in Dec/Jan. But glad to see the company keep on delivering as Nebius is my favorite Neocloud in the entire sector. I think we’re witnessing the rise of the next hyperscaler.
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提过很多美国名字
@coreyagonzalez 我最近提过我喜欢的 30 只美国名字。很多 thesis 帖都在聊日本或台湾名字，但我也经常聊美国股票，比如 $AMSC、最近的 $ARM，或者像 $NBIS 和 $RDDT 这类。
原推 ↗英文原文
@coreyagonzalez I mentioned 30 US names that I liked recently. A lot of my thesis posts talk about Japanese or Taiwanese names, but I talk about US stocks a lot like $AMSC, $ARM recently or stuff like $NBIS and $RDDT?
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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IREN 仍是差价
现在还有人继续看多像 $IREN 这种 F 级 neocloud，真是奇怪。 在 60 亿美元稀释悬压下？ 而 $NBIS 现在和 $ORCL、$MSFT 一起看起来都已经去风险了？ https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi
原推 ↗英文原文
How are there people still long on an F-tier Neocloud like $IREN. Amid a $6,000,000,000 dilution? When $NBIS is up there with $ORCL and $MSFT looking derisked? https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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说自己很喜欢 NBIS 的广告。
@demian_ai 喜欢 $NBIS 的广告，今天路过还看到一个！ https://t.co/cULR1DkIpN
原推 ↗英文原文
@demian_ai Love the $NBIS ads, stopped by one today! https://t.co/cULR1DkIpN
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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说不买 IREN 这种 ATM 打印股会轻松很多。
@mwallacegreen3 很高兴听到……是啊，不去买那种 60 亿美元、靠 ATM 一路打印然后卖给反弹的 $IREN，整个人会轻松很多。 像 $NBIS 这种股票，你反而可以真正享受到长期股价上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mwallacegreen3 Glad to hear it… yeah it’s like a weight lifted off your shoulders that you’re not buying into a $6B ATM printed and sold into rallies with $IREN. With other stocks like $NBIS you can actually benefit from long term share price appreciation.
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提醒别忘了 NBIS 还在做多业务扩张。
@ruth_capital 对，很多人也忘了，$NBIS 一边在做 Neocloud 业务，一边还通过 Clickhouse、Avride 这些在扩展 Sum of Parts 的估值。 他们是同步推进的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ruth_capital Yeah, people also forget $NBIS is scaling Sum of Parts through Clickhouse, Avride, and others alongside their Neocloud business at the same time.
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说自己去年的 NBIS thesis 终于开始兑现。
很高兴看到我去年对 $NBIS 的 thesis 终于开始兑现了。 我在去年 12 月把短期 2-3 个月的时点判断错了。 但方向上是对的，6 个月后就兑现了。 https://t.co/uqUiHd68Km
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to see my $NBIS thesis from last year finally start to play out now. Got the short term 2-3M timing wrong last December. Directionally it ended up right 6 months later. https://t.co/uqUiHd68Km
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批评投资群组过度稀释股票、骚扰批评者，强调保护散户和自己正确推荐$NBIS的记录。
就像……同样的事情在反复上演，他们每次都用过度的ATM（市场价发行）创造新账户和新股票。 你指出这个问题？无休止的骚扰、死亡威胁、以及新账户刷屏： “别说$IREN、$BKKT、$ASST的坏话，这种骚扰就会停止！” 不在乎？保护散户利益对我来说是第一位的。 我去年推荐$NBIS，到现在涨了60%以上。 去年高峰期跟随那个投资群组的人，因为过度稀释亏损了50%到90%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Like... It’s the same thing on repeat, they create new accounts and new stocks every time with excessive ATMs. You point that out? Endless harassment, death threats, and new account spam: Saying “don’t speak badly about $IREN $BKKT $ASST and this harassment will stop!” Don’t care? Protecting retail interest comes #1 to me. I was suggesting $NBIS last year which is up 60%+. Anyone who followed that investor group last year at the peak are down 50-90% from excessive dilution.
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强调融资结构差异。
@nickthehodler 融资结构才是关键。 $NBIS 以更大的市值，稀释 20 亿美元去买 $NVDA 相关投资，或者用比当前行权价高 20%+ 的可转债。 这和 $IREN 把自己一半市值印出来，再卖到公开市场给散户，是结构上完全不同的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@nickthehodler Financing structure is what matters. $NBIS diluting $2B for an $NVDA investment off a much larger MC. Or convertible notes 20%+ above current strikes. Is structurally different than $IREN printing half their MC and selling that into the open market on retail shareholders.
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说 6B ATM 的运作逻辑已经证明了一切。
@nickthehodler 这背后就是一个 60 亿美元 ATM 被打印出来并卖到公开市场的运作逻辑。 $NBIS 61%+ 的表现和 $IREN 年内 -8% 的差距已经证明了一切。
原推 ↗英文原文
@nickthehodler It's backed by the logic of how a $6,000,000,000 ATM that gets printed and sold into the open market works. The performance disparity between 61%+ with $NBIS and -8% YTD with $IREN is proof of it.
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说没有融资就不可能变现 4GW+ 容量。
对，我真的不明白，他们在没有融资的情况下，根本不可能把 4GW+ 产能变现。 而他们却选择了 ATM，而不是像 $NBIS 那样用可转债 + $NVDA 投资。 大多数人都不理解稀释的结构机制，所以才会盲目地买进一个 60 亿美元、往公开市场狂印钱的机器。 如果他们当初听我的，大家的组合本来能从 $NBIS 涨 60%+，而不是被 $IREN 拖到 -8%+。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, I genuinely don't understand, there's 0 chance they can monetize 4GW+ capacity without financing. And they chose ATMs over convertible notes + $NVDA investment like $NBIS. Majority of people don't understand structural mechanics of dilution, which is why they keep blindly buying into a $6B money printer sold into the open market. People's portfolios would have been up 60%+ from $NBIS instead of down -8%+ from $IREN if they listened.
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用 IREN 和 NBIS 的年内表现对比说明 ATM 稀释伤害。
$IREN 年内 -7.9% 是有原因的。 而 $NBIS 年内 +61.1% 也是有原因的。 买进一个 60 亿美元 ATM 的幻想程度真是离谱。 即便到了现在，IREN 的 AMC 被套者还是不肯承认自己错了吗？ 市场是最强的真理裁判，而 Nebius 和 Iren 之间巨大的业绩差异已经说明了一切。 我之前就说过，$IREN 的市值还会继续上升，但持股人的股权价值会下降。 这就是 ATM 的运作方式。过度 ATM 对现有股东不是增厚，而是稀释。 最好先让所有现有套牢者被洗掉，然后等 ATM 结束之后再去做多。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a reason $IREN is down -7.9% YTD. While $NBIS is up 61.1% YTD. The amount of delusion buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM is unreal. Even after this, IREN AMC bagholders still can't admit they're wrong? Markets are the biggest arbiter of truth, and massive performance difference between Nebius and Iren is telling. As I said before, the marketcap for $IREN will keep going up, but people's share values will decrease. That's how ATMs work. Excessive ATMs are not accretive to current shareholders. It's better to let all existing bagholders get wiped out first, then go long after the ATM is finished.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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批评 IREN 大额 ATM 稀释是结构性压制，并对比 NBIS 表现。
什么时候那些拿着 $IREN 的套牢者才会承认我说得对： $6,000,000,000 的 ATM 稀释是结构性压制？ -> $NBIS 年初至今涨了 48% -> $IREN 年初至今跌了 13% 虽然 IREN 的市值在上升（ATM 对公司融资有利），但股东权益却在下降。 这就是大家不理解、或者不愿意听的过度稀释警告。 不过在每一轮涨势里，他们大概还是会通过 GPU 来筹资、去变现自己的 GW 容量： 结果就是，市场上大概会凭空增发出接近一半市值的股份，然后再被抛到公开市场。
原推 ↗英文原文
When is it time for the $IREN bagholders to admit I was right about the: $6,000,000,000 ATM dilution being a structural overhang? -> $NBIS is up 48% YTD -> $IREN is down 13% YTD. While IREN’s marketcap goes up (ATMs benefit the company), shareholder equity goes down. This is the warning about excessive dilution that people don’t understand or want to hear. Likely in every rally to raise funds to monetize their GW capacity though GPUs: There’s going to be half the market cap minted out of thin air, then sold into the open market.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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超大规模建设延迟溢出效应利好已锁定产能的Neocloud公司如$NBIS。
英伟达($NVDA)的黄仁勋说： “$NBIS会照顾好你的。” （引用内容）我对上个月这份报告思考得越来越多…… 它对Neocloud板块比如$NBIS（甚至$CRWV）可能比市场预期的要利好得多。 因为超大规模云服务商建设延迟的溢出效应。 这也在一定程度上解释了为什么$META签署了270亿美元的协议。 那些已经为其建设项目锁定产能/组件订单的公司，可能会成为大赢家，因为其他竞争对手停滞不前。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jensen Huang from $NVDA: “ $NBIS will take care of you. “ https://t.co/lIRrnAC3fc
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回顾 TSEM 从横盘到三周翻倍，怀疑机构开始跟单。
我还是觉得 $TSEM 从年初到现在整年都横着走这件事挺好笑的。 我一做多，它现在三周里就快翻倍了。 这可是个 220 亿美元+ 的股票（体量接近 $NBIS）。 也许机构开始跟单了？
原推 ↗英文原文
I still find it funny $TSEM was flat the entire year to date. I go long and now it’s close to doubling in 3 weeks. This is a $22B+ stock BTW (close to $NBIS size). Maybe institutions started copy trading? https://t.co/kUqw9b6Ksk
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认为超大规模客户延迟扩建带来的外溢，会利好 Neocloud。
我最近对上个月那份报告想得更多了…… 我觉得它对 Neocloud 板块，比如 $NBIS，甚至 $CRWV，的利好可能比市场想象得更大。 原因在于超大规模客户扩建延迟所带来的外溢效应。 这也部分解释了为什么 $META 可能签了 270 亿美元的交易。 那些已经为扩建锁定了产能 / 组件订单的公司，大概率会成为赢家，因为其他竞争对手会被卡住。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month… It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think. Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover. And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal. Companies that already have secured capacity/component orders for their buildout are likely to be major winners as other competition stalls.
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说 NBIS 今天上涨而 IREN 仍偏弱，可能是稀释压制。
@thekriskay 感谢你告诉我 newsletter 的情况。对，今天 $NBIS 涨了 5%+，而 $IREN 还是绿的（可能是因为稀释压住了上行空间）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@thekriskay Good to know about the newsletter. Yeah $NBIS is up 5%+ today while $IREN is still red (possibly because of dilution capping upside).
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澄清 NBIS 不是做光互连，而是更偏 neocloud 和数据服务。
@GeorgeMakro91 $NBIS 并不做光互连。 它更像是 neocloud、robotaxi、数据标注、数据库这一类的业务。
原推 ↗英文原文
@GeorgeMakro91 $NBIS does not do optical interconnects. It's more in the neocloud, robotaxi, data labeling, database type space.
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批评 IREN 大幅稀释，认为 NBIS 通过差异化和客户关系更强。
我到现在还是想不通，为什么还有人会在 $IREN 上“逢低买入”。 他们搞了 60 亿美元的 ATM，把股份稀释后又卖进公开市场……还以为这会推高股价。 与此同时，$NBIS 通过差异化拿到了更多超大规模客户订单，还得到了 $NVDA 的支持。 IREN 两年前还有的那点 GW 原始资产护城河，现在几乎已经没了。 在 60 亿美元结构性稀释持续压制的情况下，很难看出这只票还能有多少上涨空间。 等现有股东先被稀释完，再考虑做多会更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN. Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market. Thinking that it will increase their share price. While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing. $IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone. It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.
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回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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说自己仍对 NBIS 被看多这件事有 PTSD。
@0xjawor 我到现在对他当时看多 $NBIS 这件事还有 PTSD。
原推 ↗英文原文
@0xjawor I still have PTSD from when he was bullish on $NBIS
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指出 IREN 的稀释压力远高于 Nebius。
你们觉得 $IREN 还要再摊 56.5 亿美元的稀释吗？ 如果你看多 Neocloud，真的很意外还有人没转去 $NBIS 或其他名字。 一个已经确认拿到 $NVDA 资金和机构可转债支持。 另一个则很可能在通过公开市场持续卖新股，从散户身上筹钱。 残酷的现实是： $IREN 根本无法在不靠这个的情况下把剩余产能变现。这不是“可选性”。 在挑选谁能带来股权升值时，财务结构的细微差别非常重要。 Nebius 的融资结构明显更好，这一点已经反映在年初至今的回报里了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively selling new shares on the open market to get funding off retail shareholders. The sad reality is: $IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It’s not “optionality”. Financial structure nuance matters when you’re choosing winners for equity appreciation. Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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认为超大规模云厂商需要的是当下的电力与土地，neocloud 有短期护城河窗口。
@futureproof_inv 超大规模云厂商需要的是今天的电力……不是五年后的电力。 这就是为什么像 $NBIS 或 $IREN 这样的 neocloud 正好卡在一个甜蜜点：它们有一小段时间去建立可防御的护城河，并成为下一个 AWS。 短期内的电力/土地本身并不是可防御的护城河。
原推 ↗英文原文
@futureproof_inv Hyperscalers need power today... not in 5 years time. That's why neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN hit that sweet spot where they have a short time period to grow a defensible moat and become the next AWS. Short term power/land is not a defensible moat.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
原推 ↗英文原文
My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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说自己通常会用约 1.4x 杠杆，现在因伊朗冲突已降到 0，但仍整体看多。
@AdityaInvests90 我通常会维持大约 1.4 倍杠杆。（只有在比如 $NBIS $70 那种仓位，或者年初税损收割的仓位上，才会把组合再加杠杆）。 现在因为伊朗冲突，我已经把杠杆降到 0 了，但整体上我还是看多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 I typically sit on ~1.4x. (Only portfolio margined past 2 into stuff like $NBIS at $70 or tax harvested stuff at the beginning of the year). Now winded down to 0 due to Iran conflict but still long in general.
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认为比起 IREN，还有更好的同赛道选择，NBIS 融资更好、AAOI 资本开支更轻。
比 $IREN 更好的机会其实很多。 如果你想留在同一个赛道，$NBIS 显然更好，因为它的 CapEx 融资方式更优（$NVDA 提供了 20 亿美元资金）…… 另外还有像 $AAOI 这种公司，它用更少的 CapEx 就能在营收和利润上超过 $IREN。 但如果你还是想持有 $IREN，也许更好的做法是等大家都被稀释完、为扩建买单之后再重新进场，去收获后面的果实。
原推 ↗英文原文
Much better opportunities out than $IREN. If you want the same sector, $NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex ( $NVDA $2B funding )… Then there’s others like $AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex. But if you still want to hold $IREN, probably better to re-enter after everyone gets diluted to fund their buildout and reap the rewards after.
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股价短期波动不改变投资论点，应保持信念不被宏观因素左右。
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.
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说自己的 UPWK 逻辑在 Reddit 上花了很久才兑现，并认为短期价格波动常被人拿来挑错。
谢谢！是啊，我的 $UPWK 逻辑大概是在 Reddit 上花最久时间才兑现的，哈哈。不过我觉得这些帖子从方向上通常还是对的，只是时间上不一定精确（我记得我 Reddit 的 PT 帖大概 11 个里对了 8 个左右吧，不是每次都准）。 很多人喜欢抓短期价格来挑错（比如今天 $SIVE 的下跌，或者 $NBIS 在可转债消息后的下跌）。但我觉得，我大多数 thesis 帖从长期来看还是正向兑现的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Yeah my $UPWK thesis probably took the longest time to play out on Reddit haha, but I think they're usually right directionally over time (I remember being ~8 for 11 or something from my Reddit PT posts, don't always get them right). People like to cherry pick short term prices (eg. $SIVE drop today or $NBIS drop post convertible note) to say I'm wrong. But, think most of my thesis posts play out positively over the long run.
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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在与 META 达成 270 亿美元交易后，NBIS 推出 37.5 亿美元可转债融资。
最新消息：在与 $META 达成 270 亿美元的超大规模云累计交易之后。 $NBIS 推出拟议 37.5 亿美元可转债发行，用来资助后续建设。 市场认为这比直接股权 ATM 稀释强得多。 因为债务只有在……
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Following the new $27B Hyperscaler Cumulative Deal with $META. $NBIS launches a proposed $3.75B in convertible note offerings to fund the buildout. Markets view this as vastly superior to straight equity ATM dilutions. As the debt only converts to equity if the company successfully drives the stock price up past that high strike. More details for Nebius are likely to come soon.
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对比不同赛道的毛利率和资本开支，认为 photonics 相比重资本 neocloud 更轻。
它们属于不同的行业、不同的毛利率，也有不同的资本开支需求。 $NBIS 和 $IREN 通常需要很重的稀释或融资来买 GPU，但从长期看通常仍然是增值的。 光子业务的资本开支通常轻得多，毛利结构也不一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
They are different sectors, gross margins, and different capex requirements. $NBIS and $IREN typically require heavy dilution or financing to buy GPUs, but typically are accretive in the long run. Photonics operate might lighter in capex, different gross margin profile. Different growth rate. So can’t compare 1:1
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回应批评，承认错误但强调整体准确率较高，高信念股是核心持仓
你说得对，我已经单独发了帖子详细说明我预测错误的每一只股票。 我也提到了几十只股票。 重点是：我通常正确的时候比错误的时候多。而我高信念的股票，是最大仓位。 $FLY实际上是2027年中量级预测搭配$NOC，有时候它们需要时间才能实现。 你说得对，我在$META上亏了很多钱。但通过他们的财报电话会议弥补回来了。 $WLAC还没上市，所以不太确定你在这里指的是什么。 但就像$NBIS（高信念股）一样，我最初发帖时在$80-$90，现在它们确实需要时间来实现。
原推 ↗英文原文
You’re right, and I’ve made a separate posts already detailing every single name I’ve gotten wrong. I also mention dozens of stocks as well. The point is: I typically get more things right than wrong. And my high conviction picks, are highest concentration. $FLY was actually 2027 for medium lift with $NOC though, sometimes they need time to play out. You’re right, I lost a lot on $META. But made up for it from their earnings call. $WLAC hasn’t even IPOed yet, so not quite sure what you’re calling out there on though. But as seen with $NBIS (high conviction), I originally posted in the $80s-$90s and they do need time to play out.
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把 TSEM 和 SIVE 作为新选择，同时把 NBIS 视为自己最看好的 neocloud 多头。
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM 和 $SIVE 是我最近新选出来的两个名字。 $NBIS 则是我在 neocloud 赛道里最看多的标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM and $SIVE are my two new choices. $NBIS is my #1 Neocloud sector long.
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报道花旗开始覆盖 Nebius，给出 169 美元目标价。
刚刚：花旗开始覆盖 Nebius（$NBIS），并给出 169 美元目标价。 据 Bloomberg Terminal。 https://t.co/y9cYcS6SgK
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Citibank initiates coverage in Nebius < $NBIS > and assigns at PT of $169. Per Bloomberg Terminal https://t.co/y9cYcS6SgK
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认为市场前瞻定价，META 对 NBIS 的合同从 30 亿美元扩大到 270 亿美元是强信号。
@daniel_koss 对，但市场是向前看的。 他们最初和 $META 的合同只有 30 亿美元，现在已经扩到累计 270 亿美元…… 这对 Nebius 来说是一个巨大的信心信号，说明它正成为 AI 基础设施的首选。
原推 ↗英文原文
@daniel_koss Yep, but markets are forward looking. Originally their deal with $META was $3B but it’s 9’xed to $27B cumulative… This is a huge signal of confidence to Nebius as the infra of choice for AI.
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日文说明 META 给 NBIS 的累计 AI 支出合同从 30 亿美元增至 270 亿美元。
@yasutaketin 来自 $META 的惊人巨额合同！最初是 30 亿美元，但现在已经增加到累计 270 亿美元。 我对未来的 $NBIS 充满强烈信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yasutaketin $META からとんでもない巨額契約がきた！元々は30億ドルだったけど、なんと270億ドルに増額。 今後の $NBIS には強い確信を持ってる。
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说虽然 NBIS 和数据中心股之前经历了剧烈回撤，但终于开始兑现。
@soulbiri1 对，$NBIS 和数据中心股票前几个月经历了非常惨烈的回撤。 但很高兴我在去年底对 Nebius 的信念，开始慢慢兑现了。尤其是在新的超大规模云合同和 $NVDA 资金支持之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah, there was a brutal few month drawdown with $NBIS and datacenter stocks. But glad the conviction in Nebius from late last year is starting to pay off. Especially with the new hyperscaler deals and $NVDA funding
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明确表示 NBIS 是下一家 hyperscaler。
@inversorBetico 不是。我认为 $NBIS 就是下一家超大规模云厂商。
原推 ↗英文原文
@inversorBetico No. I think $NBIS is the next hyperscaler
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澄清自己一直看好 Nebius，只是它是自己的第一只 neocloud 选择。
@Viv_Kumar_ 还是 Nebius。我只是说，它是我第一只 neocloud 选择，也是我最喜欢的 neocloud 选择。 我对 Weebius 的信念非常高。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Viv_Kumar_ Still is Nebius. I’m just saying it was my first Neocloud pick and my favorite Neocloud pick. I have high conviction in Weebius
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宣布 META 与 NBIS 签下 270 亿美元累计 AI 开支合同，Nebius 距 ARR 目标更近。
刚刚：$META 与 $NBIS 签下了一份高达 270 亿美元的累计 AI 开支合同。 Nebius 是我最看好的 neocloud AI 基础设施数据中心标的。 很高兴管理层正在朝着 70-90 亿美元 ARR 目标执行。 Nebius 盘前上涨 14.79%，至 129.66 美元。 https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $META signs an enormous $27 Billion cumulative AI spend contract with $NBIS. Nebius was my top Neocloud AI Infrastruture DC pick. Glad management is executing toward their $7-9B ARR target. Nebius is up 14.79% premarket to $129.66. https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0
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说 neocloud 各家数据中心命名还不够好，Elon 的命名最好。
@soulbiri1 对，但整个 neocloud 赛道的数据中心命名还得再打磨一下…… Elon Musk 给他的 DC 起名就最好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yes, but the datacenter names... across the entire neocloud sector needs work. Elon Musk does it best for his DC names.
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建议 NBIS 学 Tesla 一样给数据中心起更酷的名字。
对，$NBIS 只需要学 Elon 给 $TSLA 命名数据中心的方式，比如那个超酷的 “Colossus” 数据中心。 他可没叫它“孟菲斯数据中心 1”。 就照着这个思路更上一层楼。 把 $NBIS 下一个数据中心叫“The Singularity Megaplex”，放在 Vineland，之类的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, $NBIS just needs to follow how Elon does his naming conventions with $TSLA like "Colossus" DC, which is a badass name. He didn't call it "Memphis Datacenter 1" Just one up that. Call $NBIS next datacenter: "The Singularity Megaplex" in Vineland, and it would command a much higher valuation.
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认为 neocloud 的数据中心如果有更酷的命名，估值可能会更高。
这是我的一个热观点： 像 $NBIS 或 $IREN 这样的 neocloud，如果把数据中心起个更酷的名字，估值可能会高 1.3 倍。 酷名字示例： - $POET 的 “Starlight” - $NVDA 的 “Blackwell” 但数据中心呢？ - $IREN 的 “Prince George” - $CIFR 的 “Barber Lake” 为什么要把 AI 数据中心命名成你的理发师名字，或者英国小孩的昵称？ 我发誓，除了现有投资者之外，没人会对 Iren 的 “Prince George” 数据中心上线感到兴奋。 但如果大家都看到 $NBIS 的 “Singularity” AI 数据中心上线，那听起来就酷多了。 Nebius 现在本该值 400 亿美元了。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is my hot take: Neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN would command 1.3X higher valuation... If they renamed their datacenters to something cool. Cool Name Examples: - $POET "Starlight" - $NVDA "Blackwell" But datacenters? - $IREN "Prince George" - $CIFR "Barber Lake" Why are you naming an AI datacenter after your hair cut stylist or a British Kid nickname? I swear, nobody outside existing investors are going to hyped over Iren's "Prince George" datacenters coming online. But if everyone see's $NBIS "Singularity" AI DC coming online, that just sounds badass. Nebius would be worth $40B by now.
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对比CSP与Long的风险收益，指出CC使用时机的重要性
观点一致！我认为现金担保看跌期权(CSP)几乎零风险，而相反观点说"风险巨大"其实不太对，因为说到底你只是在买股票而已。只不过收益比直接做多(Long)低得多。这正是为什么我通常不使用CSP，除非我想分批建仓，或者想在像现在这样的时期交易波动率。不过我发现卖出覆盖认购期权(CC)要痛苦得多，因为很多时候会因为某个随机催化剂而突破你的行权价（比如$NBIS从$NVDA获得20亿美元），如果你不想缴纳资本利得税，就得把它买回来。如果你本来就打算卖出或者你真的很擅长择时（这对大多数人来说做不到），用CC会更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Same opinion! I find CSP to be almost 0 risk against contrary opinion saying “massive risk” since as you mentioned it’s just buying a stock. The returns are just a lot, lot lower than going Long though. Which is why I typically don’t use it unless I want to scale into positions or want to trade volatility during times like these. I find writing CCs is a lot more painful though since a lot of times it blows past your strike on a random cataylst (eg. $NBIS getting $2B from $NVDA and if you don’t want capital gains, you need to buy it back. Better to use it if you’re down to sell or you’re really good at timing (which is not for most people)
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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强调 thesis 会随催化剂变化而更新，近期对战争股、无人机和部分瓶颈股重新转多。
感谢你指出这一点。如果你有认真看过我的帖子，你就会发现我的 thesis 其实是会变的。 市场会随着每次财报和新的催化剂（比如宏观）不断更新。 像 $SNAP 这种，如果 SBC 没有明显下降，我就会转空并退出仓位。 但如果 gcloud opex + 变现能力真的能改变局面，Evan 又把 SBC 砍下来，那它也可能被重新定价。 $VPG 我之前发过关于 Optimus BOM 改用中国供应商做量产的新闻。 最近的冲突之后，我其实又重新看多战争股、无人机公司，以及 $LPTH。 $OSS 我们也看到它涨了差不多 80%？ $VLN 我仍然觉得它被低估，只是现在价格基本和我发帖时差不多。 大家老是截图我去年看多 $IREN 的帖子，可如果它们又开一个 60 亿美元 ATM，我也能立刻转空。 很多人误以为“我在某个时间点看多”，就等于我跟一只股票结婚了；但其实只要催化剂变了，我的看法就会变。 不过话说回来，我还是喜欢像 $LPTH 和 $OSS 这样的东西，德国锗瓶颈和边缘计算的逻辑并没有变。 和 $NBIS 一样，有些东西就是需要时间去兑现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate you calling me out on that. If you ever read my posts, my thesis can change. Markets are constantly updating every earnings with new catalysts such as macro. For things like $SNAP I flipped bearish when SBC didn’t go down materially and exited my positions. But gcloud opex + monetization can materially flip it if Evan cuts SBC. $VPG i published news on Optimus BOM switching to Chinese suppliers for production. I’m actually bullish on war stocks again, drone companies, and $LPTH again due to recent conflicts. That was following the Venezuela conflicts. $OSS is up like 80%? $VLN I still think it’s undervalued but it’s around the same price I posted. People are still screenshotting me saying I’m bullish on $IREN from last year but if they launch a $6 billion ATM, I can turn bearish. Think people mistake being bullish in one point in time to married to a stock, when things materially change based on catalysts. That being said I still like things like $LPTH and $OSS, nothings changed about germanium bottlenecks or edge computing. And like $NBIS sometimes they need time to play out.
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明确表达做空 IREN、做多 NBIS。
@BTCSuperCycle 做空 $IREN，做多 $NBIS
原推 ↗英文原文
@BTCSuperCycle Short $IREN, long $NBIS
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回看自己在 X 上的大部分一周收益都为正，并列出多个强势持仓。
我刚刚跳出自己的小圈子看了一眼。 X 上大部分人的状态都是： - 组合一片深红。 - 对着 1 周图发 doompost。 - 在担心原油。 而我大多数个股的一周回报，好像都还是绿的？ $AXTI +46.9% $SOI +48.59% $NBIS +29.59% $IQE +27.92% $TSEM +13.99% 诸如此类……也许只是运气？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just looked outside my little bubble. Majority of folks on X are: - posting deep red portfolios. - doomposting 1W charts - fearing about oil Feels like most of my individuals stock 1W returns are way in the green? $AXTI up +46.9% $SOI up +48.59% $NBIS up +29.59% $IQE up +27.92% $TSEM up +13.99% And so on… maybe luck?
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认为 IREN 上行受 60 亿 ATM 限制，NBIS 融资结构更好
不是说 $IREN 会崩。 更准确地说，短中期里 IREN 的上行空间会被 60 亿美元 ATM 限制住。 如果你要投 IREN，最好等现有持有人被高达 60 亿美元的卖压稀释得差不多之后，再去做多。 如果你追求股权升值，$NBIS 的资本开支融资结构要好得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s not that $IREN will crash. It’s moreso short-medium term IREN’s upside is capped due to the $6B ATM. If you’re investing in IREN it’s better to wait after existing holders get diluted to oblivion from up to $6B in selling pressure, then go long after. If you’re chasing equity appreciation, $NBIS has a much superior capex financing structure.
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开心看到别人做成了自己帖子里的小型组合
@workoutwithp @tech_signals 很高兴看到你把我提过的那些名字做成了一个小型 ETF！ 也很酷，里面 60% 都是我提过的名字，从 $NBIS 到 $AEHR，除了那几只随机生物科技。 很高兴这套组合有效，61% 的回报真的很厉害。
原推 ↗英文原文
@workoutwithp @tech_signals It’s fun to see that mini ETF of the names I’ve mentioned! Cool to see that 60% are names I’ve talked about from $NBIS to $AEHR, aside from the random biotech. Glad it’s working out for you, 61% return is amazing.
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对比 NBIS 与 IREN 的融资结构，认为前者更优
$NBIS 和 $IREN 的差别，简直天壤之别。 Nebius：来自 $NVDA 的 20 亿美元稀释，没有立刻对公众流通盘形成卖压。 IREN：通过 ATM 稀释 60 亿美元，卖压直接打进公开市场。 这会直接从公众手里抽走流动性，并压制动量。 谁更能通过资本开支融资带来更高的股价升值，已经非常清楚了。 一个是与 Nvidia 的战略合作，另一个是有毒融资。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN. The difference is night and day. Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing. One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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解释 ClickHouse 其实是 Nebius 内部项目分拆
@offermemoneyXYZ ClickHouse 其实原本是 Nebius 旗下的内部项目，后来才分拆成独立公司。 $NBIS 持有 ClickHouse 约 25% 股份，按 150 亿美元估值计算，这个市值后面大概率还会往更高走，至少要到它可能 IPO 之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Clickhouse was actually an internal project run by Nebius, but it spun off as an independent company. $NBIS owns ~25% of Clickhouse at $15B valuation, and that MC is likely go up lots higher up until their possible ipo.
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认为 Nvidia 对 Nebius 的 20 亿投资是极强信号
@beauty_oe 考虑到 $NBIS 的市值，$NVDA 投入 20 亿美元是一个极其巨大的动作，也足以成为他们未来成长的超强信号！ Nebius 是我最喜欢的长期标的之一，用来押注 AI 未来的敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe $NBIS の時価総額を考えると $NVDA による20億ドルの投資はとてつもなく大きく、彼らの今後の成長を裏付ける超強力なシグナルだ！Nebiusは、AIの未来にエクスポージャーを取るための長期銘柄として一番のお気に入り
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认为 Nebius 是下一家 AWS 级超大规模云
最新消息：Nvidia 向 $NBIS 投资了 20 亿美元。 我确信 Nebius 终将成为下一家 Amazon 级别的超大规模云。 因为它其实是 5 家业务的组合，而且这些业务的部分总和都在以三位数同比增长： - Nebius：AI Cloud，7 到 90 亿美元 ARR，正朝着下一个 AWS 发展 - ClickHouse：支撑大多数财富 500 强公司的数据库，上一轮估值 150 亿美元 - Avride：Robotaxi 和 FSD-4 级技术，现在正和 Uber 一起实车放量 - Toloka：数据标注平台，得到了 Jeff Bezos 的资金支持，也被 $AMZN 使用 - TripleTen：教育平台，虽然没那么性感，但增长也很快 另外还有像 SWE-rebench 这类广泛使用的 benchmark 之类的 side quests。 Jensen 对 Nebius 的 $NVDA 投资表达的也是同一个意思：Nebius 站在 AI 前沿，正引领浪潮去满足不断增长的算力需求。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Nvidia has invested $2B into $NBIS. I'm convinced Nebius is the next Amazon-level hyperscaler over time. As they're 5 companies all growing sum-of-parts triple digits Y/Y: - Nebius: $7-9B ARR from AI Cloud as the next AWS. - Clickhouse: DB powering majority of fortune 500 companies, last valuation at $15B - Avride: Robotaxi and FSD-4 level technology, now scaling up live with Uber. - Toloka: Data Labeling platform, funded by Jeff Bezos and used by $AMZN - TripleTen: Education platform, not as sexy as the rest, but still fast growing. With sidequests from the widely used benchmarks like SWE-rebench. Jensen's $NVDA investment into Nebius shares the same sentiment: Nebius is at the forefront of AI and leading the wave to meet the growing demand for compute.
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确认 Nebius 终于开始重新估值
@daniel_koss 对，$NBIS 终于重新估值了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@daniel_koss Yep, finally $NBIS has retuned. https://t.co/ZcqUmavnja
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对比挖矿股结构优劣，认为CRWV和IREN更适合作为板块下跌的对冲工具。
@jorge_r006 $RIOT、$WULF、$NBIS 在结构上处于比 $CRWV 和 $IREN 更好的位置。因此，后两者在板块下跌时能提供更好的对冲作用。话虽如此，这只是我在深入研究后抛出的一个交易想法，我目前尚未建立任何头寸。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jorge_r006 $RIOT, $WULF, $NBIS look structurally in better positions than $CRWV and $IREN are. Hence why the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines. That being said, just floating this trade idea out after doing more research, I haven't taken any positions yet.
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博主感谢粉丝互动助力其近期粉丝量激增。
谢谢！我很确定年初时我的粉丝数大概在 8,000 到 12,000 之间。非常惊讶我在过去两个月里就获得了大部分粉丝。其中很大一部分归功于像你这样的人长期以来通过 $NBIS 等内容与我互动。X 平台很棒的一点是，网络中的每个人都在共同成长。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Pretty sure I started at like 8-12k at the beginning of the year. Very surprised I gained majority of my following in the last two months alone. Large part of it is people like yourself interacting with me over time with stuff like $NBIS. Cool thing about X is everyone in the network kind of grows together
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警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
原推 ↗英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
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因巨额稀释及风险收益失衡，作者看空 $IREN 并推荐 $CIFR 和 $NBIS。
我看不到任何持有 $IREN 的 compelling case（有力理由）。 尤其是考虑到在 $128亿市值下新增 $60亿的股票稀释。 人们可能会看到市值膨胀至 $200-$250亿。 但他们的股份价值会随时间递减。 风险收益比已经不再存在。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，通过 Fluidstack 为 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 提供 Colo（数据中心托管）模式，提供了更具非对称性的上行空间。 而像 $NBIS 这样的公司则提供更好的多元化（Robotaxis（自动驾驶出租车）、ClickHouse），执行风险更低，且资本支出得到良好支持。 对于 $IREN，无法合理化接近市值一半的稀释并为此欢呼。 即使有新的 Hyperscaler（超大规模云服务商）交易，风险收益比也不存在。 我去年对 $IREN 看多，但已卖出。持有者经历了从： -> 3GW 容量，轻资产，Colo 模式（我曾看好） -> 为 $MSFT 购买 GPU 并为其转型的执行风险欢呼（我不看好） 到 -> 为 $60亿新股稀释欢呼，并在公开市场上被反向抛售。（AMC 接盘者领地） 如果你努力证明新的 ~50% 稀释是好事，且在你持仓被抛售时信任管理层： 抱歉告诉你，你现在加入了数据中心领域的 $AMC 等价俱乐部。 市场上有更好的多头标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN. Especially given the new $6B share dilution at a $12.8B marketcap. People will likely see that marketcap inflate to $20-$25B. But the value of their shares decrease over time. The risk reward is just not there anymore. Companies like $CIFR offer much more asymmetrical upside given their colo model for $AMZN and $GOOGL through Fluidstack. And companies like $NBIS offer much better diversification (robotaxis, clickhouse), derisked execution, and are well supported for capex. With $IREN, there’s no way to justify being diluted close to half the market cap and cheering that on. Even with a new hyperscaler deal there’s risk reward is just not there. I was bullish $IREN last year but sold it. As holders went from: -> 3GW capacity, asset lite, Colo model (was a fan of this) -> Buying GPUs for $MSFT and cheering on execution risks from the pivot (not a fan) Into -> Cheering on $6B of new share dilution + getting sold on the open market against their positions. (AMC bagholder territory) If you’re trying hard to justify why new ~50% dilution is a good thing sold against your positions and trusting in management: Sorry to tell you, that you’re now in the $AMC equivalent club for datacenters. There are much better longs out there.
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批评 IREN 和 NBIS 巨额增发稀释股权，认为投资者应回避。
@Agrippa_Inv 这一举措客观上很糟糕……我不明白 $IREN 的投资者怎么会支持 60 亿美元的 ATM（自动取款机式增发）。如果 $NBIS 进行 110 亿美元的 ATM 增发，我也会毫不犹豫地逃之夭夭。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Agrippa_Inv This one is objectively bad… I don’t see how $IREN investors could support a $6B ATM. If $NBIS ran an $11B ATM, I wouldn’t hesitate to fun for the hills either.
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IREN巨额增发稀释远超NBIS，非市场恐慌而是既定事实。
@Gyujin_9701 当 $IREN 实际执行增发以稀释股权并不可避免地向市场抛售价值60亿美元的股份时，这并非恐慌、不确定性和怀疑(FUD)。我原本强烈反对 $NBIS 进行25亿美元的此类操作，但这次规模完全不在一个量级上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Gyujin_9701 It’s not FUD when $IREN actually went out and filled to dilute and inevitably sell $6B worth of shares into the market. I was really against $NBIS doing it with $2.5B but this is on another scale.
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IREN 巨额增发致稀释，商业模式不及 NBIS，看多逻辑失效。
三天后，$IREN 再次进行 60 亿美元的自动取款机 (ATM) 增发，在公开市场上出售了几乎一半的市值。变现 3-4GW 产能听起来不错，但如果你是现有股东，情况就不妙了。看起来他们的经济模型不像 $NBIS 那样能覆盖足够多的资本支出 (Capex)。我和去年其他人的看多逻辑是：$IREN 通过托管 (Colo) 业务产生自由现金流 (FCF) 来资助 GPU 相关扩张。但这发生了实质性变化，增加了执行不确定性，并在此基础上带来了无尽的稀释。
原推 ↗英文原文
3 days later $IREN is having another $6B ATM, selling almost half their marketcap on the open market. Monetizing 3-4GW capacity sounds good, but not if you’re an existing shareholder. Doesn’t look like their economics cover enough of their capex in the way $NBIS does. My bull case, alongside everyone else’s last year: was for $IREN to do colo and fund GPU related expansion with FCF. This materially changed and added execution uncertainty + endless dilution on top.
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伊朗战争或消除以色列及关联股的生存折价，需进一步研究。
我也没料到这一点。也许伊朗战争的后果消除了相关股票如 $NBIS 以及以色列股票如 $ETOR 至 $VLN 的“生存折价因子”（existential discount factor）？ 或者情况是多方面的，因为国防在以色列股市中占很大权重。 鉴于这对我来说是新领域，仍在做更多研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was not expecting this as well. Maybe the implications of the Iran war removes Israel’s existential discount factor on correlated stocks like $NBIS and Israeli ones like $ETOR to $VLN? Or its multifaceted since defense makes up a large weighting of the Israel stock exchange. Still doing more research since this is new to me.
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看好NBIS多业务高增长及分部价值，预期其现金流转正后估值重估。
$NBIS 是我在这批新云厂商中真正最看好的。情况很微妙，但他们本质上是由 5 家不同业务组成的公司，且均实现三位数的同比增长。我最看好其与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶出租车部门，以及 Clickhouse（他们持有约 1/4 股份），这两块未来估值很可能远超 150 亿美元。此外，其数据中心业务预计将在 2027 年 2 月报告前上线，带来约 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。我认为市场尚未充分反映其分部加总价值，但我预计在其低调建设阶段结束、资本支出 (Capex) 开始转化为自由现金流 (FCF) 后，Nebius 的估值将得到重估。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is my actually favorite Neocloud out of the bunch. It’s really nuanced but they actually are basically 5 different companies all scaling triple digits y/y. Biggest fan of their robotaxi division working with $UBER and Clickhouse would likely command higher valuations in the future than $15B (they own ~1/4th). This is on top of their DC business expected to come online and bring ~$7-9B ARR by Feb 2027 report. Don’t think sum of parts is priced in properly but I’d expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf
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不看好IREN因稀释风险，更信任NBIS管理层，静待时间验证。
我不看好做多 $IREN，除非他们停止 GPU 业务并转向纯数据中心托管(Colo)业务。现在的投资者将面临为了变现其 3GW 产能而进行的无休止稀释。话虽如此，它确实具有更高的潜在回报，但我个人更信任 $NBIS 的管理层。过去我在 $NBIS 与 $IREN 之间有过很多辩论，时间会证明谁是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of $IREN as a long unless they stop doing GPU offerings and pivot to do pure colo. investors now will be met with endless dilution to monetize their 3GW capacity. That being said it does carry higher potential returns but I personally trust in $NBIS management more. I’ve had a lot of debates in the past between $NBIS vs $IREN but time will tell whose right
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CRWV大跌验证看空逻辑，警示新云债务风险差异。
这条推文经得起时间考验，$CRWV 过去一个月下跌约 28%。 我觉得最好的空头其实是多头投资者或波段交易者。 如果你看到 Coreweave 或 $CRCL 在 200 美元时的危险信号，与其回避，不如反向操作。 话虽如此，$NBIS 等其他股票正随着板块被算法性打压。 我一次又一次地注意到，并非所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)都是一样的。 - 一家新云服务商可能有数十亿美元的年度债务利息，损害自由现金流(FCF) - 另一家则可能没有……
原推 ↗英文原文
This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month. I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders. If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it. That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same. - One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF - The other Neocloud might not…
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列举AI半导体供应链各环节代表公司及代码
@jahintanvir_ 大概包括这些： 内存 - $MU, 三星, SK海力士, 闪迪 晶圆代工, 封装 - $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI 专用集成电路(ASICs) - $AVGO, $MRVL 连接 - $ALAB, $CRDO 电力/电网 - $XLU 数据中心 - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
原推 ↗英文原文
@jahintanvir_ Probably the likes of these: Memory - $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sandisk Foundries, Packaging- $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI ASICs - $AVGO, $MRVL Connectivity - $ALAB, $CRDO Power/Grid- $XLU Datacenters - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
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看好$NBIS明年Q4业绩爆发，预判中期选举后市场上涨。
$NBIS 向 80 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR) 的重大扩张将在第四季度财报中体现，所以可能是明年二月？它仍然是我最看好的多头标的之一，但目前正处于静默建设阶段。预计今年年底及中期选举后增速将加快。我认为从近期历史来看，中期选举后指数 100% 上涨，而选举前约为 60%。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS major ramp up to $8B ARR is q4 earnings so maybe Feb of next year? Still one of my favorite longs but right now is just silent buildout phase. Should see acceleration toward end of this year and past midterms. I think in recent history post-midterm, 100% of the time indexes went up. And pre-midterm was around 60%.
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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NBIS一周反弹27%，积极情绪回归
@platochi 不错，但希望你不会被指派行权。很高兴我最好的朋友 $NBIS 一周内反弹了 27%。积极情绪似乎正在回归 https://t.co/QGyD9QkwTL
原推 ↗英文原文
@platochi Nice, but hope you don’t get assigned. I’m happy my best friend $NBIS is back up 27% in a week. Positive sentiment seems to be returning https://t.co/QGyD9QkwTL
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分享NBIS低价成交经历，感叹机会短暂。
@pepemoonboy 那天我在 $NBIS 上的实际成交均价甚至低于那个价格！我的限价买单最低成交价是 70.47 美元。遗憾的是，这个机会转瞬即逝 https://t.co/431KXPOGCd
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy I was actually getting fills below that on $NBIS that day! Lowest was $70.47 for my limit buys. Sadly opportunity didn’t last long https://t.co/431KXPOGCd
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OpenAI警告电力是AI竞争核心瓶颈，看好美国能源基建股。
@toptickcrypto 存在多个瓶颈。电力/电网是其中最大的瓶颈之一。 OpenAI 就 Deepseek 蒸馏问题向国会发送了一份备忘录： “维持美国在 AI 领域的优势，取决于我们能否可靠地大规模生成和输送电力。” 电力输送 - $VRT, $ETN, $PWR, $WMB, $KMI 一级能源供应商：$CEG, $VST, $TLN, $GEV, $NEE, $BEPC, $D 电网-能源/存储 - $TSLA, $FLNC, $NRGV, $BE 能源：$TE, $FSLR, $NRG 这对这些公司来说是一个被重申的顺风因素。 而对于那些已经锁定吉瓦(GW)级容量的公司，如 $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF 和 $CIFR，则存在二级顺风因素。 备忘录的核心问题围绕知识产权盗窃和国家安全问题。但关于维持优势的最大警告是能源。 OpenAI 警告国会，2024年中国新增了429吉瓦(GW)的电力容量，这超过了美国整个电网的三分之一，也超过了全球电力增长的一半。他们认为，如果没有对美国电网进行激进扩张，中国“蛮力”式的能源建设最终将使其超越西方的 AI 能力。 光子学(Photonics)、先进封装(Advanced Packaging)和存储(Memory)是目前增长最快的三个瓶颈。然而，OpenAI 明确警告美国政府，谁能产生最多的电力，谁就能赢得 AI 竞赛。 他们的信息是：投资美国能源。
原推 ↗英文原文
@toptickcrypto There's multiple bottlenecks. Power/grid is one of the largest ones. https://t.co/rIKoKRyQOu
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博主惊叹于NBIS团队开发的swe-rebench项目。
@wienglischmann @ibragim_bad @nebiusai 我之前不知道这件事，太酷了！$NBIS 的人工智能团队开发了 swe-rebench！
原推 ↗英文原文
@wienglischmann @ibragim_bad @nebiusai Was unaware of this, that’s super cool $NBIS AI team developed swe-rebench!
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建议避开估值虚高的Robinhood投资组合。
@ejdisokqaloa 真不敢相信我忘了我最喜欢的 Clickhouse 和 $NBIS！是的，我会把它们也列在上面。主要观点是 Robinhood Venture 投资组合高度集中在那些刚刚以膨胀估值完成融资的公司上。我个人建议完全避开。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ejdisokqaloa Can't believe I forgot about my favorite Clickhouse and $NBIS! Yeah I would include them up there. Main point was that the Robinhood Venture portfolio was highly concentrated in companies that just raised at inflated valuations. Would personally just stay away completely.
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因比特币相关性担忧看空CIFR/IREN，看好NBIS。
鉴于比特币近期价格下跌，在它们与比特币的相关性降低之前，我持负面看法。像 $NBIS 这样的新云公司是该板块更纯粹的标的。据我回忆，$CIFR 的资产负债表中有大量比特币敞口，且 $IREN 的很大一部分利润来自比特币挖矿。营收数据噪音很大，因为比特币挖矿收入与高性能计算(HPC)收入对资产负债表的影响截然不同。但随着规模扩大，这种影响应该会减弱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Negative until they have less correlation with Bitcoin given Bitcoin's recent price drop. Neoclouds like $NBIS are a bit more pure play to the sector. Last I recall, $CIFR balance sheet had a lot of Bitcoin exposure and a lot of $IREN's profit comes from Bitcoin mining. Revenue numbers are a lot of noise since revenue from Bitcoin mining vs HPC hits the balance sheet a lot different. But as they scale up, it should be less materially impacted.
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OpenAI警告国会：电力供应是AI竞争核心瓶颈，需投资美国能源。
OpenAI 就 Deepseek 蒸馏问题向国会发送了一份备忘录： “维持美国在人工智能领域的优势，取决于我们能否可靠地大规模生成和输送电力。” 电力输送 - $VRT, $ETN, $PWR, $WMB, $KMI 一级能源供应商：$CEG, $VST, $TLN, $GEV, $NEE, $BEPC, $D 电网能源/储能 - $TSLA, $FLNC, $NRGV, $BE 能源：$TE, $FSLR, $NRG 这对这些公司来说是一个被重申的顺风因素。 而对于那些已经锁定吉瓦(GW)级容量的公司，如 $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF 和 $CIFR，则存在二级顺风效应。 备忘录的核心议题围绕知识产权盗窃和国家安全问题。但关于维持优势的最大警告在于能源。 OpenAI 警告国会，2024年中国新增了429吉瓦(GW)的电力容量，这超过了美国整个电网的三分之一，也超过了全球电力增长的一半。他们认为，如果没有对美国电网进行激进扩张，中国“蛮力”式的能源建设最终将使其超越西方的AI能力。 光子学(Photonics)、先进封装(Advanced Packaging)和存储(Memory)是目前增长最快的三个瓶颈。然而，OpenAI 明确警告美国政府，谁能产生最多的电力，谁就能赢得AI竞赛。 他们的信息是：投资美国能源。
原推 ↗英文原文
OpenAI sent a memo to congress regarding Deepseek distillation: "Sustaining the American advantage on AI depends on depends on whether we can reliably generate and deliver power at scale." Power Delivery - $VRT, $ETN, $PWR, $WMB, $KMI Tier-1 Energy Providers: $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $GEV, $NEE, $BEPC, $D Grid-Energy / Storage - $TSLA, $FLNC, $NRGV, $BE Energy: $TE, $FSLR, $NRG This is a tailwind reiterated for these companies. And there's a second-order tailwind for companies that already secured GW capacity like $IREN, $NBIS, $WULF, and $CIFR. The core issue of the memo was around IP theft and national security issues. But the largest warning about sustaining an advantage was Energy. OpenAI warning Congress that in 2024, China added 429 Gigawatts (GW) of new power capacity, which was more than a third of the entire US grid and more than half of global electricity growth. Without a radical expansion of the American power grid, they believe China’s "brute force" energy buildout will eventually allow them to surpass Western AI capabilities. Photonics, Advanced Packaging, and Memory are three fastest growing bottlenecks right now. However, OpenAI explicitly warned the U.S. government that whoever generates the most power wins the AI race. Their message: Invest in American Energy.
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看好NBIS长期价值，但短期面临融资稀释及宏观压力。
我两天前覆盖过 $NBIS。目前的动量交易焦点已转向内存/光子学(Photonics)，因为新云厂商(Neoclouds)在去年获得超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)订单后，目前处于静默建设阶段（每周鲜有新消息）。 尽管如此，我仍然看好 $NBIS，鉴于其年度经常性收入(ARR)达到80亿美元，且Clickhouse与Avride的加总估值(Sum of Parts)支撑有力（Clickhouse估值达150亿美元；例如若以400亿美元估值融资，其28%的股权价值为112亿美元，几乎相当于其当前市值的一半），我对Q4财报给出的牛市目标价为400美元。 不过，由于超额配售选择权(ATM)抛压、为能源公司(ER)3GW管道融资可能带来的稀释、宏观因素以及建设期间的资本支出(Capex)支出，短期内存在较大压力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I covered $NBIS 2 days ago. The momentum trade is now memory/photonics since neoclouds are in the silent buildout phase (with little new news weekly) after getting hyperscaler deals last year. That being said I still like $NBIS, $400 bull case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR, Clickhouse + Avride carries sum of parts (Clickhouse hit $15B valuation, Eg if they raise at $40B that 28% equity is 11.2B, almost half their current valuation). That being said there’s a lot of short term pressure from ATM overhangs + possible dilution as they raise for the 3GW pipeline from ER, macro (largely), and capex spend during the buildout.
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NBIS类似早期ASTS，营收爆发尚需时日，目前处于等待期。
@retail_mourinho 没错！🐂 $NBIS。Nebius 让我想起早期的 $ASTS，你大概预期营收会大幅增长，但这还需要一段时间，所以看起来像是一场等待游戏。
原推 ↗英文原文
@retail_mourinho Yep!🐂 $NBIS. Nebius reminds me of early $ASTS where you kinda expect the revenue to scale up immensely but it’s awhile away, so seems like a waiting game.
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Neocloud板块卖空多为对冲，基本面强劲时无需过度关注。
从 $IREN 到 $WULF 的 Neocloud 板块的卖空兴趣(SI) 主要是可转换票据对冲，而非真正的做空。当然，像 Hedgeye 这样的机构也在增加 $NBIS 的 SI 数据，因此很难得知实际数字。话虽如此，如果基本面强劲，我其实不太在意 SI。
原推 ↗英文原文
Short interest from Neocloud sector from $IREN to $WULF are mostly convertible note hedging, not actual shorts. Of course there’s firms like Hedgeye adding to that number for $NBIS SI so it’s hard to know the actual figure. That being said don’t really care too much about SI if fundamentals are strong.
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澄清NBIS产能与基建概念，指出市场担忧其融资稀释。
我认为这是将他们对主动产能（已满负荷，意味着 $NBIS 需求旺盛）的表述，与他们正在建设的 2.5GW 签约管道及基础设施混为一谈了。不过我们拭目以待，$NBIS 上次意外获得了 $META 的合同，但市场显然不喜欢其伴随的 ATM（自动取款机融资）/稀释效应。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think that’s conflating their words for active capacity (maxed out, meaning $NBIS has high demand) with the 2.5GW contracted pipeline + infrastructure they’re building out. But we’ll see, $NBIS had a surprise $META contract last time but markets clearly didn’t like the ATM/dilution.
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基于排除法看好$NBIS财报，预计其多业务线高增长，建议财报期间持有。
在看到 $IREN 财报未披露新的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)交易后， 又看到超大规模客户的资本支出(capex)呈指数级增长： -> 通过排除法，$NBIS 在财报中“有所准备”的可能性越来越大。 过去几周的几个简版(TLDR)利好因素： - 旧款GPU价格大幅上涨（见前文）。有利于资产负债表 - GPU供应断崖式下跌（需求激增） - 超大规模客户资本支出激增（很大一部分被归因于数据中心DCs） - $NBIS 本季度可能已通过2500万股的按需发行(ATM)计划，希望稀释的尽头已现。 - Clickhouse以150亿美元估值融资（接近母公司估值） - “Uber不再自主研发Robotaxi”，转而依赖Avride（Nebius子公司）等合作伙伴 前景看好。 随着股价重置至92美元，如果Nebius仍有望在年底实现70-90亿美元ARR（同比增长700%+），财报期间应持有多头仓位。 当然，我预计大部分增长将在2026年下半年至明年一季度发生，届时50亿美元的建设资本支出将转化为80亿美元的中位营收+自由现金流(FCF)。 持有 $NBIS 基本上等于持有5家公司，每家都保持三位数同比增长，等待估值反映分部加总(Sum of Parts)+增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals. And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing: -> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination. Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks: - Older GPUs have massively increased in price (see previous). Better for balance sheet - GPU availability dropped off the roof (increased demand) - Hyperscaler capex spend blowout (a large portion was cited for DCs) - $NBIS likely went through the 25M share ATM this quarter so hopefully the end of dilution is in sight. - Clickhouse raising at $15B valuation (getting close to main company valuation) - “Uber is not returning to developing its own robotaxis” and relying on partners like Avride (Nebius subsidiary) Things are looking good. With the price reset to $92, if Nebius is still on track for $7-9B ARR EOY (700%+ y/y), should be a positive hold through earnings. Of course I expect most of the ramp to happen H2 2026 to Q1 next year as the $5B in buildout capex spend converts to recognized $8B midpoint revenue + FCF. With $NBIS, you’re basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y and waiting for valuation to reflect Sum of Parts + growth.
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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NBIS等公司持有的GPU资产升值，构成重大投资利好。
@jng500 有趣的是，现在连关于GPU折旧的争论都不存在了。 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 持有的GPU实际上像投资品一样升值了…… 上个月H100价格上涨29%以上，A100价格上涨23%以上。 这是一个极其巨大的顺风利好。 https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
原推 ↗英文原文
@jng500 It's funny how it wasn't even GPU depreciation arguments anymore. The GPUs $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN are sitting on have actually gone up in price like an investment... H100s went up 29%+ and A100% went up 23%+ last month. This is an incredible, incredible tailwind. https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
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超大规模云厂商资本支出激增导致GPU供应紧张，利好新云服务商。
黄仁勋在CNBC表示：“六年前销售的GPU价格正在上涨。” GPU折旧曾是$NBIS、$IREN和$CRWV最大的担忧。 但现在，它们拥有： - 超大规模云厂商资本支出增加带来的顺风 - 全面的需求增长 - GPU折旧担忧缓解。 所有顺风同时利好新云服务商(Neoclouds)。 （引用内容：根据3Fourteen Research：2月份主要云服务的GPU可用性大幅下降。随着$META、$AMZN、$GOOGL大幅增加基础设施资本支出，主要赢家是新云服务商：$IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是三家提供AI云服务的企业。随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的推出，可能出现新一轮需求冲击。从B200等新一代到旧型号，需求全面增长。这是产能限制累积效应的可视化体现。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Jensen Huang on CNBC: "GPUs sold six years ago are increasing in price." GPU depreciation was the largest concern for $NBIS, $IREN, and $CRWV. But now, they have: - Tailwinds from increased capex spend across hyperscalers - Increased demand across the board - GPU depreciation fears eased. Every tailwind just hit at once for Neoclouds.
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云厂商GPU供应紧缺，Neoclouds因需求冲击受益。
根据3Fourteen Research的数据：2月份主要云服务提供商的GPU可用性大幅下降。 与此同时，$META、$AMZN和$GOOGL大幅增加了基础设施资本支出。 主要的受益者是Neoclouds（新型云服务商）： $IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是拥有AI云服务业务的三家。 随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的发布，很可能出现了一波新的需求冲击。 这种需求增长是全方位的，涵盖了B200等新一代芯片以及旧型号。 这是产能限制累积效应的直观体现。
原推 ↗英文原文
According to 3Fourteen Research: GPU availability across major cloud services have dropped immensely in Feb. This comes as $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL have increased infrastructure capex spend immensely. The major victors, Neoclouds: $IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV are the three with AI cloud offerings. There's likely been a new wave of demand shock with new AI models coming out from Opus 4.6 and others. And the demand increase is across the board with newer gens like B200, and older models. This is the cumulative effect of capacity constraints, now visualized.
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谷歌转向TPU利好相关托管商，NBIS非其受益者。
@lawbrax 这对通过 Fluidstack 与 $GOOGL 相关的托管设施(Colo)公司，如新云(NeoCloud)领域的 $CIFR 和 $WULF 是利好消息。 看起来谷歌主要转向张量处理单元(TPU)了。我认为 $NBIS 并非谷歌的受益者，但他们曾是 $META 的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
@lawbrax This is positive for $GOOGL related colo companies through Fluidstack like $CIFR and $WULF in neocloud sector. Looks like Google is primarily shifting to TPUs now. Don't think $NBIS is a beneficiary of Google but they were with $META.
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澄清NBIS法律国籍及市场认知，指出其与IREN等新云公司近期走势分化。
@Andr12988772 你澄清这一点是对的。$NBIS 是一家法律意义上的荷兰公司。我说的是，由于关联和业务运营，市场将其视为以色列公司。最近我们也观察到 $IREN、$NBIS 和其他新云(neoclouds)公司之间出现了分化。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Andr12988772 You're right to clarify that. $NBIS is a legally dutch company. I was saying that markets treat it as Israeli due to ties and operations. We've also seen a divergence between $IREN, $NBIS, and other neoclouds recently.
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博主坦言投资也有亏损，指出部分AI股估值与现金或基本面严重脱节。
我完全没头绪。很多人看到我发了大量像 $OSS 或 $AXTI 这样的高收益论点帖子，但当我判断错误时，我也确实会亏钱。 而且我确实是真金白银地践行我的观点（skin in the game）。 我曾与其他分析师讨论，他们都感到困惑。对于 $ETOR 和 $VLN，我发现它们与市场的明显脱节，两者交易价格接近其现金余额，但显然市场并不认同我的观点。 如果 $NBIS 正在通过自动取款机(ATM)增发，那稍微说得通一些，但其运营业务并未通过分部加总法(Sum of Parts)得到正确定价。 至于 Nebius，如果市值仍为 210 亿美元，而年底年化经常性收入(ARR)为 70 亿美元，那我就不知道了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong. And I do put my money where my mouth is. I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me. $NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly. With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.
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质疑以色列股票估值过低，认为存在分部加总套利机会。
市场对以色列股票有什么偏见吗？ 我在其中一些股票上损失惨重。 $ETOR 和 $VLN 的市值已接近其现金资产价值。 而对于 $NBIS，其投资组合公司 Clickhouse 的估值几乎已超过其主体公司。 尽管地缘政治风险已计入溢价，但这些估值仍显得不合逻辑。 市场几乎将其实际业务价值归零，尽管它们都在增长，特别是 $ETOR（资产管理规模增长 70%+）产生了可观的自由现金流(FCF)。 我 genuinely 感到惊讶，我在想这是否是一个利用资产负债表进行分部加总(SOTP)套利的潜在交易机会。 或者抛售会持续下去？ 这里存在巨大的认知偏差。
原推 ↗英文原文
What do markets have against stocks from Israel? I’ve lost an incredible amount on some of these. Both $ETOR and $VLN are close to cash-assets | marketcap. And with $NBIS their portfolio company Clickhouse is almost worth more than their main company at this point. Geopolitical risks factored into premiums, none of the valuations make sense. The market is assigning close to 0 value to their actual business even through they’re all growing with $ETOR in specific (70%+ AUM growth) producing considerable FCF. Im genuinely surprised, l wonder if it’s a potential trade arbitraging sum of parts to balance sheets. Or would the selloff continue? There’s a huge disconnect.
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提示杠杆风险，表示在ETH等资产大跌时逢低买入。
鉴于$ETH，我只是在提示使用杠杆时可能面临持续抛售的风险。除此之外，我在当前价位是买方，我不确定接下来会发生什么。我个人在$GLXY下跌9%以上时加仓，并在$HOOD、$NBIS、$CRCL、$SOL、$ETH和$IBIT下跌时买入，因为它们都大幅下跌。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m just citing risks for extended selloffs given $ETH if you’re using margin. Other than that I’m a buyer at these levels, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I personally added $GLXY on the 9% drop + and $HOOD, $NBIS, $CRCL, $SOL, $ETH and $IBIT ON drop since they’re all down a ton.
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买入NBIS、SOL和ETH，警示高贝塔风险，看好回调机会。
我个人在周一$NBIS跌至$80时买入。它们属于AI基础设施建设主题，但鉴于目前的盈利状况，风险稍高，我依然看好。短期来看，有自动取款机(ATM)发行，这会对价格产生一定影响。 我还在周一以$100的价格加仓了$SOL，以$2200的价格加仓了$ETH，作为波段交易。 话虽如此，鉴于下跌，预计未来会有更多波动，因此高贝塔(high beta)股票的保证金交易很危险。 但其中一些标的在回调中看起来很有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I personally ended up buying $NBIS on the drop to $80 ON. They’re part of the AI buildout theme, but a tad more risky give profitability so far, so still a fan. Short term there’s the ATM though which does impact the price a bit. I ended up adding $SOL at $100 and $ETH at $2200 too ON for swing trades as well. That being said likely more volatility ahead given drop, so margin on high beta is dangerous. But some of these names look attractive in the pullback.
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质疑市场对以色列股票估值过低，分析ETOR和VLN的财务优势。
对我来说，答案是肯定的。我真的不明白市场为何对以色列股票如 $ETOR、$NBIS 和 $VLN 如此不友好，因为它们是我表现最差的持仓。 我在 Etoro 上亏损了不少，但其持有约一半现金，且企业价值(EV)与远期收益(Forward Earnings)之比约为4倍。资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长77%。 而 $VLN 基本上拥有约1.1亿美元现金/库存，市值为1.7亿美元。营收8000万美元且毛利率很高。 所以个人实在搞不清楚到底发生了什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
To me strong yes. I really don't understand what markets have against Israeli stocks like $ETOR, $NBIS, and $VLN because those are my worst performers. I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y. Then $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins. So personally not quite sure what's going on.
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博主对比同行跌幅，自嘲今日亏损15%是前币圈交易者的常态。
@pepemoonboy 说实话，考虑到 $NBIS 下跌超过 10%，而 $SLV 等其他标的下跌超过 29%，-6.32% 的跌幅其实相当不错。 我今天亏损了 15.03%。 不过对于前加密货币交易者来说，这感觉就像是一个普通的周五。 https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Honestly -6.32% drop is pretty good considering $NBIS is down 10%+ and others like $SLV are down 29%+. I'm down 15.03% today. This feels like a normal Friday though for former crypto traders. https://t.co/KV9Y3DX67Y
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作者补仓CRCL和NBIS，认为稳定币长期看好。
对我来说，这是一个非常棒的长线机会。我在 $CRCL 上亏了不少，所以我正在通过补仓来摊低成本。$NBIS 我的成本均价在 90 多美元，所以没什么痛苦。 唯一的变化是 $CRCL 面临 2-3 次降息带来的短期逆风。 最大的变化是《澄清法案》(CLARITY Act)，该法案禁止像 Coinbase 这样的交易所对稳定币支付利息（因为它与银行竞争，这简直太愚蠢了。我真不敢相信预测市场显示其通过概率约为 57%）。 话虽如此，USDC 供应量的增加将抵消利息收入的损失，而且稳定币在未来几年应该表现优异。
原推 ↗英文原文
For me it's an amazing long, I actually lost a lot on $CRCL so I'm cost averaging down. $NBIS my cost average was in the 90's so not really much pain there. Only things that have changed is $CRCL faces near term headwinds with 2-3 rate cuts. And the biggest thing is CLARITY Act which bans exchanges related to stablecoins like Coinbase from giving interest on top (because it competes with banks, which is just so, so stupid. I can't believe it's actually a thing that's likely to be passed ~57% on prediction markets). That being said, added USDC supply would offset interest income losses, and stablecoins should be great going forward over the next few years.
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NBIS因ATM增发短期震荡，仍是看好标的但时机不佳。
就在这一刻，我的想法是 $NBIS 在第一季度可能会处于区间震荡(rangebound)，因为他们正在利用其2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)增发，并在达到特定行权价时在场外市场抛售。它仍然是我最看好的多头标的之一，但就时机而言并非如此。我原本就不看好在 $138 可转债融资之后紧接着进行的第二次 ATM 增发。
原推 ↗英文原文
As of this exact moment, my thought was that $NBIS was probably rangebound for Q1 because they're tapping into their 25M share ATM offering right now and selling that on the open market when it hits a certain strike. It's still one of my favorite long ideas but timing wise not as much. I just was not a fan of the second ATM, right after the $138 convertible note funding.
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看空CRWV因债务与折旧风险，建议多NBIS/CIFR空CRWV对冲。
$CRWV 可能是我能想到的唯一一家市值超 500 亿美元且很可能破产的公司。至少 $ORCL 拥有盈利的核心业务，并持有大量资产，例如 15% 的 TikTok 股份。 对我来说，做空 Coreweave 的理由很明确，纯粹因为其大部分收入将用于支付债务利息。再加上 GPU 折旧，情况更是雪上加霜。 但进行对冲是个好主意。我个人会做多 $NBIS、$CIFR，同时做空 $CRWV，这对长期投资来说似乎不错。Nvidia 目前仍在维持它们的生存。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV is probably the only $50B+ company I can think of that is likely going to go bankrupt. At least $ORCL has a profitable core business and owns tons of assets like 15% of Tiktok. Coreweave is a clear short to me purely because a large part of their revenue will be used to pay off debt interest. Then you compound that with GPU depreciation. But it's a good idea to hedge. I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term. Nvidia is keeping them alive for now.
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看好NBIS和CIFR，指出Coreweave高息债务侵蚀现金流。
我认为 $NBIS 目前极具吸引力。$CIFR（指其托管业务而非新云业务）等特定个股也是如此。相比之下，$CRWV 的说服力则稍逊一筹。 Nebius 的商业模式本质上是将五家年同比增长(Y/Y)达100%的公司合并而成。（包括与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶公司 Avride、估值约150亿美元的 Clickhouse、AI 标注公司 Toloka 以及教育科技公司）。此外，还包括其核心业务部门，该部门已实现约70亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。 因此，尽管我们需要通过实际产生的自由现金流(FCF)来仔细审视这些乐观的收入数据，但公司方面表示长期 EBIT 利润率有望达到20%~30%。 最关键的差异在于，Coreweave 超过12亿美元的债务利息正在侵蚀其自由现金流，而其他公司则获得了2~3%的低利率融资。
原推 ↗英文原文
저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다. 따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다. 가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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感谢互动，并指出新云投资逻辑获市场认可。
@EndicottInvests 谢谢！我记得经常看到你的名字出现在 $NBIS 相关的讨论中。很高兴很多人觉得关于新云(neoclouds)的投资逻辑很有说服力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@EndicottInvests Appreciate it! I remember seeing your name pop up a lot with $NBIS. I'm glad a lot of people found the thesis compelling with neoclouds.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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调侃NBIS未造军用激光致持仓成本过高
@Neomeldir $NBIS 不幸的是并不为美国国防部制造死光激光武器。如果他们真的这么做，并将其安装在 Avride 的自动驾驶出租车上，我的持仓成本(PT)就会是 $500。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Neomeldir $NBIS unfortunately doesn't make death ray lasers for US DoD. If they did and attached them to Avride robotaxis, my PT would be $500.
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NBIS长期增长强劲但短期受增发压制，Q3或迎拐点。
关于 $NBIS，这是一只长期表现惊人的股票，因为其旗下四家公司的业务同比增长均超过100%，其中主营业务更是增长了700%+。 然而短期内，他们拥有超过20亿美元的活跃 ATM（增发融资），这带来了巨大的抛压。 我预计第三季度情况会好转，届时市场开始提前交易其70亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）目标。Clickhouse 150亿美元的估值非常看涨，此外还应关注 $UBER 与 avirde 合作的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）进展。除此之外，近期进展相当缓慢，缺乏引人注目的亮点。
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As for $NBIS, amazing long term stock since all 4 of their companies are growing 100%+ y/y with their main business 700%+. However near term, they have an active $2B+ ATM, which introduces tons of selling pressure. I’d expect things to pick up q3 when markets start frontrunning their $7B ARR target. Clickhouse $15B valuation was incredibly bullish + should pay attention to $UBER Robotaxi ramp with avirde. That aside been pretty slow without much flashy developments.
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博主转发并提及五只美股代码。
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
原推 ↗英文原文
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
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区分数据中心重估与新瓶颈发现的投资逻辑差异。
像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这样的公司是 2026 年高确信度的标的。但这与一家市值 5000 万美元的小众公司突然因 $NVDA 或 $MSFT 囤货而需求激增的情况不同。数据中心(DC)相关股票可能获得 1 年 2-3 倍的估值重估，但这与新瓶颈带来的 2000%+ 信息发现效应截然不同。像 $UUUU 或 $MP 这样的已知瓶颈也是如此。话说回来，我在文章中把磷化铟(indium phosphide)和导弹拼错了，可以看出我是手写的（也很尴尬）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Companies like $NBIS or $CIFR are high conviction for 2026. But it’s not the same as a small $50m niche company, suddenly being in over-demand from $NVDA or $MSFT stockpiling inventory. You might get a 2-3x 1Y re-rating with DCs but it’s a different story than 2000%+ information discovery of a new bottleneck. Same with known bottlenecks like $UUUU or $MP That being said I also misspelled indium phosphide and missiles in my article so you can tell I hand wrote it (also embarrassing)
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分析AI算力股与云厂商的算法关联及市场定价不确定性。
$GOOGL / Gemini 可能正在公开为这一结果欢呼。像 $CIFR 这样的公司主要通过 Fluidstack 与 Google 紧密绑定。然而，正如我们在上一轮下跌中所见，$NBIS 到 $IREN 在算法上被关联到 Oracle 和 Coreweave，无论 OpenAI 的关系影响如何。不确定市场这次会如何对此进行定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$GOOGL / Gemini is probably openly cheering for this outcome. Companies like $CIFR are largely tethered to Google through Fluidstack. However, as we've seen last drop, $NBIS to $IREN were algorithmically associated with Oracle and Coreweave regardless of OpenAi relational impact. Not sure how markets price this in this time.
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重申NBIS和VLN的投资逻辑，认为市值将回归基本面。
我的投资逻辑应该能自行验证，无需我发帖。我对 $NBIS 在 2026 年的观点与去年完全一致。 $VLN 也是如此，目前市值约 2 亿美元，对应 8000 万美元远期营收，毛利率 63%，基本处于 1.2 亿美元的估值水平。 一旦做市商停止因今日全市场期权大规模到期而进行的操纵小动作，市值应该会回归基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thesis should play out by itself without me posting. My thesis with $NBIS for 2026 hasn't changed at all since last year. Same with $VLN, it's basically sitting on $120m off $200m MC right now doing $80m forward revenue, 63% gross margins. MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board.
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看好LPTH因美供应链垄断优势，担忧META受地缘政治影响。
太棒了！$LPTH 是我 2026 年目前为止最喜欢的多头持仓！我从未想过能找到能击败 $NBIS 的东西。 它比 $AXTI 更安全，因为这次是美国供应链，同时也在这个瓶颈修复方案上拥有垄断地位。 顺便说一句，我的 $META 仓位正在被重创 lol。美国即将入侵伊朗 + 战争通常会导致除国防、石油和安全股以外的任何股票抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nice! $LPTH is my favorite long of 2026 so far! I never thought I’d find something that would beat $NBIS. It’s also safer than $AXTI since it’s US supply chain this time but also has a monopoly over this bottleneck fix. On a side note, my $META positions are getting wrecked lol. Imminent US invasion of Iran + war usually causes a selloffs of anything non defense, oil, and safety stocks
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讽刺市场把 Walmart 当成高增长数据中心股
@WenqingLi9 没错，Walmart 确实转卖很多 Nvidia GPU。 也许市场正在定价新的 alpha：Walmart 这个内衣转卖商、增长基本和通胀一致的公司，要追上 $NBIS 和 $IREN 数据中心业务 700% 的同比增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
@WenqingLi9 True, Walmart does resell a lot of Nvidia GPUs. Maybe the market is pricing in new alpha that Walmart, an underwear reseller that is growing in line with inflation, is gonna match $NBIS and $IREN 700% Y/Y growth for DCs.
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作者卖出LITE转投COHR，认为其优于LITE但确信度不及NBIS。
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis 所以我目前其实更看好 $COHR 而非 $LITE，并在约 385 美元处卖出了我的 LITE 仓位。 前几天我做了一些内部研究，发现了一些潜在问题，但尚未发布。 话虽如此，它仍是一个不错的多头标的，但确信度不如 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis So I actually like $COHR more than $LITE right now and sold my LITE positions at ~$385. I did some internal research the other day and found some potential issues but didn't publish it yet. That being said it's still a good long but not as high conviction as $NBIS.
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NBIS受ATM及CRWV影响，其他数据中心股表现良好，IREN异常。
@_visionarius $NBIS 正在运行一笔2500万股的主动式按需发行机制(ATM)，近期其表现更多与 $CRWV 的走势挂钩。其他数据中心(Colo)玩家表现良好，如 $HUT、$CIFR、$WULF。唯一的异常是 $IREN。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_visionarius $NBIS has an active 25M share ATM running and it's more tied to $CRWV's performance recently. The other colo players have been doing well, like $HUT, $CIFR, $WULF. The only anomaly is $IREN.
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FinX社区5天收益超Citadel全年，2025年大幅跑赢机构。
“FinX 对决华尔街”报告 这是 FinX 15，由最受欢迎的标的组成的加权组合： 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% 以下是 FinX 上周的表现： FinX 15 回报率（1周）：11.3% 2025 全年表现： - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater 的 Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK 创新 ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY 指数 = +17.72% - Poinpoint 多策略 = +11.6% - 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% 结论： 仅在 5 个交易日内，FinX 社区就击败了 Citadel 的全年收益。 进入 2026 年，我们正式碾压了机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
"FinX vs Wall Street" report This is FinX 15, a weighted port of the most popular names: 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% Here's how FinX did last week: FinX 15 Return (1-Week): 11.3% For the entire 2025 calendar year: - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK Innovation ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY Index = +17.72% - Poinpoint Multi-Strategy = +11.6% - - Berkshire Hathaway = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% The Bottom Line: In just 5 trading days, the FinX community beat Citadel’s entire year. We are officially smoking the institutions entering 2026
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欢迎博主回归，肯定社区早期洞察并期待后续。
@romanchernin 欢迎回来！很高兴 $NBIS 社区早早地指出了这一点。期待未来的发展。
原推 ↗英文原文
@romanchernin Welcome back! Glad the $NBIS community called it out early. Looking forward to future developments
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软件仍复杂，但AI瓶颈已下移至材料与先进封装层。
我不同意，对于SaaS软件服务(SaaS)确实如此，但用于运行数据中心(数据中心)及其他垂直领域的软件（例如针对$CRWV和$NBIS的GPU编排(GPU Orchestration)）仍然极其复杂。不过，大多数瓶颈已下移至材料/基础设施层面，如磷化铟(InP)衬底、集成电路(IC)衬底、高端PCB材料/原料，以及更高层级的HBM和高密度互连封装(CoWoS)。
原推 ↗英文原文
I disagree, for SaaS sure, but software (eg. GPU orchestration for $CRWV, $NBIS) for running DCs to other verticals is still incredibly complex. But most bottlenecks moved down to materials/infra like InP substrates, IC substrates, high-end pcb materials/feedstock, then a level higher with HBM and CoWoS
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博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
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看好新云板块多数股票，认为WYFI等估值重置后极具吸引力。
几乎所有新云(Neocloud)板块的股票都是极其坚实的买入标的（也许除了 $SLNH）。$WYFI 算是与 NScale 达成 8.65 亿美元协议的 T2 层级玩家。但其估值已从 40 美元完全重置至 15 美元。因此，它与 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 及其他股票一样，是极具吸引力的买入选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Almost every Neocloud segment stock is a extremely solid buy (maybe aside from $SLNH) $WYFI is kinda T2 with NScale's $865m agreement. But it's valuation got completely reset from $40 to $15. So it's an extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and the others.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
原推 ↗英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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NBIS波动极大，但看好其2026年跑赢大盘并扭转趋势。
$NBIS 目前基本上是一家由 5 家不同公司组成的实体，也是整个市场中波动率（Beta）最高的股票之一。 不过其波动性极大。其同行如 $CRWV 前阵子单日涨幅曾达 24%。 Nebius 在最初达成 $MSFT 交易时单日也曾上涨 40%。且在两周内经历了 100->140->100 的完整轮回。所以波动性极强，绝对不适合心脏脆弱者。 抛开这点，我对 Nebius 在 2026 年跑赢大盘并扭转当前趋势极具信心。这基本上等同于投资一家 FSD 级别的 L4 级自动驾驶出租车公司、一家几乎被所有财富 500 强使用的数据库，以及其他同比增长三位数并将更多利润反哺核心业务的业务板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is basically 5 different companies in 1 at this point and one of the most high-beta stocks in the entire market. Extremely volatile though. It's peers like $CRWV went up 24% in a day the other week off. Nebius also went up 40% in a day on the initial $MSFT deal. And round tripped 100->140 -> 100 all in the span of two weeks. So just extremely volatile and definitely not a stock for the faint of heart. That aside I'm extremely confident in Nebius outperforming in 2026 and reversing current trends. It's basically investing in a FSD-level 4 Robotaxi company, a DB that almost every fortune 500 company uses, and other moving parts growing triple digits Y/Y that derive more profit to the core business.
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新云板块处于验证期，当前下跌是建立护城河前的黄金买入机会。
新云(Neoclouds)正处于“证明实力”阶段。 $NBIS 的年经常性收入(ARR)增长率高达700%+，达到70-90亿美元；$IREN 的数据也超过34亿美元。 许多公司拥有多年的收入可见性，并得到七大科技巨头(Mag7)超大规模云服务商的背书。 然而，市场表示： “这不是一个无限刷钱的漏洞”。 即股价上涨 -> 可转换票据/稀释 -> ARR增加 -> 循环往复。 它们现在都有资金，$NBIS 持有48亿美元以上的现金储备，$IREN 持有来自 $MSFT 预付款/票据的数十亿美元以完成建设并转化为自由现金流(FCF)。 尽管有《加速推进电气化法案(SPEED Act)》通过、OpenAI融资（降低交易对手风险）以及降息等顺风因素，但近期的下跌趋势似乎是年底税务收割、做空、主动式自动取款机(ATM)增发以及主要是： 等待证明这些公司能否从 $MSFT 与 IREN 的交易到 Nebius 的杠杆内部收益率(IRR)预测中，实现规模化的利润率。这似乎归结为执行力和等待下一次财报。 许多散户投资者在此期间似乎已经投降，但机构持股比例仅上升（$NBIS 从30%多升至50%以上）。 但非对称性就在这里： 如果 Nebius 管理层能实现20-30%的息税前利润(EBIT)利润率并达到70-90亿美元的 ARR 目标，那么在保守分析师给出200美元以上目标价(PT)的情况下，85美元的价格显得极其、极其低估。特别是考虑到 Clickhouse 的扩张/IPO 以及 Avride 与 Uber 合作的自动驾驶出租车规模化。 我在主题上也特别看好 $IREN 在微软交易上的杠杆 IRR 预测，以及来自 $CIFR / $WULF 与 $GOOGL 交易的新云数据中心(Colo)玩家。 简而言之：如果新云能在其预测的利润率、规模上执行到位，并在这2-3年的窗口期内建立自己的护城河，那么整个板块的抛售似乎是一个黄金机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Neoclouds are in the "Prove It" phase. You have absurd 700%+ ARR growth rates to $7-9B from $NBIS and $3.4B+ figures from $IREN. Many have multiple year revenue visibility and backstop from Mag7 Hyperscalers. However, markets have said: "This is not an infinite money glitch". Where a stock goes up -> convertible note/dilution -> ARR increases -> repeat. They all have funding now, $NBIS sitting on a $4.8B+ cash stack, $IREN sitting on billions from $MSFT prepayment/notes to finish their buildout and turn that into FCF. Despite tailwinds from the initial SPEED act passing, OpenAI fundraising (for less counterpaty risk), and rate cuts, the recent downtrend seems to combine EoY tax harvesting with short selling, active ATMs, and mainly: Waiting for proof that these companies can deliver margins at scale from levered IRR projections on $MSFT's IREN deal to Nebius. It seems to comes down to execution and waiting for their next earnings report. Many retail investors seem to have capitulated during this time but institutional ownership has only gone up (30's from $NBIS to 50's+ now) But here's where the asymmetry comes in: If Nebius management scales to 20-30% EBIT margins with their $7-9B ARR target, this seems incredibly, incredibly off at $85 when conservative analysts are throwing out $200+ PTs. Especially considering possible Clickhouse ramp/IPO and Avride robotaxi scaling with Uber. I'm especially bullish thematically too with $IREN levered IRR projections on the Microsoft deal and Neocloud colo players from $CIFR / $WULF $GOOGL deals. TLDR: If Neoclouds can execute with their projected margins, scale, and create their own moats during this 2-3 year window, then the whole sector selloff seems like a golden opportunity.
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解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
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InP涨价对集群成本影响微，长期担忧超大规模云服务商转向定制ASIC。
好问题！关于 $CRWV、$NBIS 和 $IREN，我尚未对 B300 集群进行物料清单(BOM)分析，但光网络(Optical Networking)资本支出占比可能在 10-20% 左右。 我记得做过测算，即使磷化铟(InP)价格上涨 30 倍，集群价格仅边际增加 3%，这对 Google 来说微不足道，仅对内部收益率(IRR)造成极微小的影响。 话虽如此，我不确定 InP 成本是仅边际增加，还是因总可寻址市场(TAM)极小且突然用于 AI 导致供应受限而上涨 50 倍。 总之，短中期影响甚微。长期我更担心超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)转向定制 ASIC 并将英伟达作为过渡期。 我们需要观察 Neoclouds 是否能在拥有极大杠杆的 2-3 年窗口期内，基本转变为超大规模云服务商。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question! As for $CRWV, $NBIS, and $IREN, I haven’t done a BOM on B300 clusters, but optical networking is probably around 10-20% of capex. I remember doing calculations and increasing InP prices by 30 times would only create a 3% marginal increase on cluster prices, which is extremely negligible to Google but hurts IRR just a tiny tiny bit. That being said I don’t know if InP costs just marginally increases or it goes up 50 times because it’s incredibly low TAM and suddenly it’s used for AI/supply constrained. So basically little effect short-medium term. Longer term I’d be more worried about hyperscaler shift to custom ASICs and using nvidia as a transition period. We’d need to see if Neoclouds can basically become hyperscalers themselves in the 2-3 year window where they have extreme leverage
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回应批评，重申NBIS长期价值及短期错判逻辑。
批评很中肯。我最初在 $NBIS 86美元时发布观点，即便在125美元我仍会买入。 我未曾预期一家远期年度经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元、同比增长超700%且拥有4家各自增长超100%的子公司企业，市值会暴跌40%至190亿美元。 存在1-3个月的短期定价错误（尤其是受宏观压力、套息交易平仓引发的高贝塔资产抛售及临时信贷收紧影响），但我预计所有高确信度标的在6-12个月内将跑赢大盘。
原推 ↗英文原文
Very fair criticism. I first posted about $NBIS at $86 and would still be buying at $125. I did not expect a $7-9B forward ARR company growing 700%+ Y/Y, with 4 different subsidiary companies each growing 100%+ Y/Y to drop 40% to a $19B MC. There's things that are mispriced 1-3 month short term (especially with larger macro overhang with high-beta asset selloffs from carry trade unwind and temporary credit tightening) but I expect all my high conviction picks to outperform 6-12 months out.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
原推 ↗英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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NBIS子公司价值或超IREN市值，仍看好两者。
确实如此。单是 $NBIS 持有的 Clickhouse 和 Avride 股份，在一两年内可能就超过 $IREN 的市值。话虽如此，我依然对两者都持看涨态度。不过有点不公平的是，Nebius 拥有两家源自 Yandex 时代的子公司，其业务正以三位数的同比增速增长。这甚至还没有计入他们的主营业务线。
原推 ↗英文原文
True. Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two. That being said I’m still bullish on both. It’s just a bit unfair though Nebius owns 4 subsidiaries from Yandex days growing triple digits y/y. That’s not even accounting for their main business line
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Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
原推 ↗英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
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重申NBIS长期看涨至250美元，对期权亏损致歉。
是的，我一个月前说 $NBIS 即使在 130 美元时也是极强的买入标的，这一观点我至今仍坚持，如果它交易在 125 美元我会买入。我认为跌至 75 美元就像 $HOOD 在关税恐慌中跌至 28 美元然后随着散户投降涨至 100 美元以上那样。如果人们跟随我的 Nebius 论点使用本月到期的期权，我感到非常内疚。我自己也因下跌在 3 月/5 月到期的期权上损失惨重。但中长期我相信一旦他们在 2026 年实现管理层预测，$NBIS 轻松突破 250 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, you’re correct when I said that $NBIS is an extremely strong buy even at $130 a month ago. I still maintain that today, and would be buying Nebius if it were trading at $125. I believe the drop to $75 is like the moment when $HOOD dropped to $28 during tariff fears then went to $100+ when retail capitulated. I do feel extremely guilty if people followed my thesis on Nebius with options that expired this month. I lost a lot of money myself so far on March/May expiry options from the drop. But medium-long term I believe $NBIS easily blows past $250 once they achieve management projections in 2026
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作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
原推 ↗英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
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通过对比 IREN 缺乏核心 AI 资产，论证 NBIS 的竞争优势。
我会用一个关于 $NBIS 与 $IREN 的问题来回答你的问题。 IREN 是否拥有： - 一家由 Uber 规模化运营的 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）公司 - 一家被从 Tesla 到 Meta 等所有顶级公司使用的 DB（数据库）公司 - 一家被 Amazon、Anthropic 等使用的 AI 标注公司？ 这些业务是否都随着 Nebius 的主营业务实现了 100%+ 的同比增长？
原推 ↗英文原文
I will answer your question with a question regarding $NBIS vs $IREN. Does IREN have a: - FSD lvl4 robotaxi company scaled by Uber - a DB company used by every single top company from Tesla to Meta - an AI labeling company used by Amazon, Anthropic and others? Each growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside Nebius's main business?
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比较一组高增长标的的高估和低估程度
所以我会说，$RKLB 现在肯定是最被高估的。 $LITE 正接近超买区间，但考虑到它在 TPUv7、Trainium 和 Blackwell 芯片中的关键性，它确实值得重估。 $NBIS 和 $CRCL 是这组里最被低估的，然后是 $ALAB。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now. $LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips. $NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB.
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列出更稳的十倍股和小盘 moonshot
如果说“更安全”的 10 倍股，我会说未来 5 年是 $RKLB 和 $NBIS。 我完全能想象 Rocket Lab 有一天到 3000 亿美元估值，Nebius 到 2000 亿美元估值。 市值越小，10 倍概率越高（比如低于 20 亿美元）。显然，对 $HOOD 这类公司来说，一年翻倍要难得多。 但在小盘股里，$AAOI、$WLAC 和 $TE 是我喜欢小仓位参与的那类 moonshot。
原推 ↗英文原文
So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day. The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year. But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.
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公布 2026 年五只高信念多倍股
我在个人组合的极端增长高信念篮子里新增了 2 只股票。 在更长时间框架上，我对高信念股票从来没错过（比如 $HOOD 从 18 美元到 100+ 美元）。 我 2026 年的 5 只高信念多倍股现在是： $NBIS - AI 算力和 Robotaxi $RKLB - 太空 $ALAB - 连接 新增的两只是： $CRCL - 印钞机 $LITE - hyperscaler ASIC 我后面会写 Circle 和 Lite 的更长 DD thesis。 我有信心，只持有这 5 只，就会大幅跑赢 99.9% 的组合。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio. I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+) My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now: $NBIS - AI Compute and Robotaxis $RKLB - Space $ALAB - Connectivity And the two new ones are: $CRCL - Money Printer $LITE - Hyperscaler ASICs I’ll do longer DD thesis on Circle and Lite on follow ups. I’m confident having just these 5 will heavily outperform 99.9% of portfolios.
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称 NBIS 即使更高也想买，但现金不足
@soulbiri1 对。如果 $NBIS 今天是 135 美元，我还是会买；但很遗憾，在下跌尾端我已经没有足够干火药继续部署了。 最后我买了光子玩家和 Circle 的长期仓位。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yep. If $NBIS was $135 today I’d still buying - but ran out of dry capital to deploy on the full tail end of the drop sadly. Ended up buying long term positions in photonics players and Circle though
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认为 Nebius 基本面没变，情绪转向且收购叙事增强
像 $NBIS 这样的公司，基本面没有任何变化（除了继续改善）。变化的只是市场情绪突然切换了。 但现在，Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 这样的人突然出来说：“Nebius 可能在 2026 年被 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 这样的 hyperscaler 收购”，这极其利多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch. But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.
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OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
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Amazon 投资 OpenAI 对 AI 数据中心和 ASIC 供应链的连锁影响
最新：Amazon 的 100 亿美元 OpenAI 融资，以及 AI 供应链的涟漪效应。 $AMZN 将以 5000 亿美元以上估值向 OpenAI 投资 100 亿美元以上。 为什么这是 AI 股票的重大结构性变化： 1. AI 数据中心交易去风险：（$ORCL、$CRWV、$APLD、$CORZ） 结合前面提到的 SPEED 法案，影响 Neocloud 的主要问题是： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED 法案直接处理了第 1 和第 2 点，但没有处理 OpenAI 相关的第 3 点。 影响 Oracle、CoreWeave 等最大 Neocloud/数据中心提供商的主要担忧，是它们为 OpenAI 这个对手方投入了巨额 capex，而 OpenAI 本身没有足够资金承诺这些资本开支。 但现在，随着 Amazon 新融资，第 3 点开始被解决。 - 新增 100 亿美元资金，加上 Amazon 的资产负债表支持 ChatGPT 的创造者，OpenAI 对 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 的早期承诺开始获得兜底。 - 下游影响：这直接降低了 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 的风险，因为它们在为 OpenAI 建设容量。再往下两层，依赖 CoreWeave 作为租户的 $APLD 或 $CORZ 也会被去风险。 由于 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 被视为“行业龙头”，这会立刻改变整个 Neocloud 板块的情绪，包括 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 等。 2. Hyperscaler AI capex 浪潮（$AMZN、$MRVL、Alchip）： 我们之前看到，$AVGO ASIC backlog 之后，市场开始担心 hyperscaler 支出减弱，很多相关玩家因此大跌。 但这笔交易的关键条件之一，是 OpenAI 采用 Amazon 自研 Trainium ASIC。这代表非 Nvidia 集群会激进扩张。 - 设计与 IP：直接利好 Marvell（$MRVL）和 Alchip 等 ASIC 设计伙伴。 - 定制硅集群需要大量光互连和 HBM。这会为光子（$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR）和内存（$MU、SK 海力士）创造新的 capex 超级周期。 - 代工厂，比如 $TSM。 以及更多参与 hyperscaler ASIC 建设的相关公司。 唯一输家？Nvidia（$NVDA）。 Amazon 正在成功用它庞大的资产负债表，迫使领先 LLM 摆脱对 H100/Blackwell 的依赖，同时推动整条 AI 供应链。 核心结论是，AI 交易由世界上最富有的公司资助，比如 $AMZN；OpenAI 也正在证明，它可以通过出让股权来扩大资产负债表，以满足需求。 做多 AI 板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect. $AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks: 1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ ) With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, the main issues affecting Neoclouds were: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. the Speed bill directly addresses #1 and #2. But not #3 with OpenAI. The main fears affecting the biggest Neocloud/Datanceter providers like Oracle, Coreweave was their immense capex spend for a counterparty (OpenAI) that doesn't have the funding to commit to it's capex spend. But now, #3 is starting to be addressed with the new Amazon funding. - With a fresh $10 Billion and Amazon’s balance sheet backing the creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI's early commitments to Oracle and CoreWeave are now starting to be backstopped. - Downstream Impact: This directly derisks companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, who are building capacity for OpenAI. And by two hops, companies like $APLD or $CORZ that rely on Coreweave as a tenant. As Coreweave and Oracle are seen as the "sector leaders" this immediately changes sentiment across the whole Neocloud sector from $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and others as well. 2. The HyperScaler AI capex wave ( $AMZN, $MRVL, Alchip): We've seen fears after $AVGO ASIC backlog about hyperscaler spending waning. And many related players tanked on the news. However, a key condition of this deal is OpenAI’s adoption of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium ASICs. This signals an aggressive scaling of non-Nvidia clusters. - Design & IP: Direct benefit to ASIC design partners like Marvell ( $MRVL ) and Alchip. - Custom silicon clusters require massive optical interconnects and HBM. This creates a new capex supercycle for photonics ( $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR ) and memory ( $MU, SK Hynix). - Foundries such as $TSM. and many more related companies involved in the buildout of hyperscaler ASICs. The only loser? Nvidia ( $NVDA ). Amazon is successfully using its massive balance sheet to force the leading LLM to diversify away from H100/Blackwell dependence and boosting the whole AI supply chain alongside it. The main takeaway is that the AI trade is funded by the richest companies in the world, such as $AMZN, and OpenAI is showing it can scale up its balance sheet to meet requirements by trading off equity. Go long on the AI sector.
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估算 AI 基建法案通过概率，并更看重行政命令
是的，就像我和 Sydney Sweeney 的机会是 50/50 一样，法案通过、然后 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 起飞的概率也是 50/50。 要么发生，要么不发生。 玩笑归玩笑，我随便猜的话，考虑到 Bernie 等民主党人早期反对，概率大概是 30-35%。 我会更押注可能的行政命令强行推进，因为 $ORCL 创始人和前沿 LLM 公司与本届政府关系很近。 另外，AI 基础设施现在已经是国家安全风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes like how my chances with Sydney Sweeney are 50/50, the chances that the bill passes and $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR goes to the moon are 50/50 as well. Either it happens or it doesn’t. Jokes aside just a wild guess is 30-35% given early disagreement from Democrats like Bernie. I’d count more on likely executive orders ramming things through given how close the $ORCL founder and frontier LLMs are with the administration. Also given how AI infrastructure is now a national security risk.
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认为近期抛售来自套息交易解除，中期降息利好风险资产
我的观点和之前一样。最近这轮抛售，是日本央行加息和美联储降息后重新建立仓位，再引发套息交易解除。 短期来看，套息交易解除的影响比三次降息大得多。 现在我们已经看到了这轮抛售的结果。 但 12 月 10 日的美联储降息，对 $RKLB 到 $NBIS 这类风险资产的中期，比如未来 3 个月，是极其利多的，尤其是在它们基本面还在增长的情况下。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve held the same view as before. Recent selloff is carry trade unwind from reload after boj hike and fed rate cut. Carry trade unwind is much more impactful than 3x rate cut near term. And now we’ve seen the result of that selloff. But Dec 10ths fed rate cut is incredibly bullish for risk assets from $RKlB to $NBIS medium term like 3 months out, especially when they have growing fundamentals.
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估计 SPEED Act 时间线并强调其对 Neocloud 的顺风
按时间线估计，大概是 12 月最后一周。 不过像 Bernie Sanders 这样的人正在反对它。我看到 @pepemoonboy 下面的评论笑了，而且他说得很对：Bernie 对 AI 和基础设施作为关键国家安全风险的理解很不足。 当中国正处在构建关键前沿模型的边缘时，根本没必要搞这么多官僚程序和州与州之间的政治博弈。 但如果它通过，这可能是 Neocloud + 数据中心领域最大的顺风，对整个板块都极其利多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Last week of December for a timeline estimate. Regards like Bernie Sanders are pushing back on it though. I laughed at @pepemoonboy comment underneath and it’s so true given Bernie’s lack of understanding of AI and infrastructure a pivotal national security risk. There’s no need for all the bureaucracy and state-by-state political games when China is on the precipice of building critical frontier models. But if it passes, it’s probably the biggest tailwind for the Neocloud + Datacenters space and incredibly bullish for the whole sector.
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解释 SPEED Act 为什么比三次降息更利好数据中心链条
谢谢！之前也有一些帖子提到 SPEED Act 通过，以及“利好 $NBIS 和 $CIFR”，这很有帮助。 但我只是想拆解“为什么”，因为数据中心板块极其复杂，而且互相连接很深。 SPEED Act 通过比三次降息还好，因为在看利用率拖累、时间敏感的折旧成本，以及利润率如何影响 $ORCL 和 $CRWV 这类公司时，延迟可能是盈利能力面临的最大单一问题之一。 对于 CoreWeave 这样的直接受益者来说，这项法案会降低关于延迟和“不可持续 capex”的空头 thesis 风险。$APLD 和 $CORZ 这类下游公司，也会因为对手方风险降低而改善。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! There were some other posts about the Speed act passing and “bullish for $NBIS and $CIFR”, which is helpful. But I just wanted to break down “why” since the DC sector is EXCEPTIONALLY nuanced and interconnected. Speed act passing is better than 3x rate cut, since delays are probably one of single biggest issue for probability whe we look at utilization drag, time sensitive depreciation costs, and margins affecting companies like $ORCL and $CRWV. Bear case thesis with delays and “unsustainable capex” gets derisked with this act on direct beneficiaries like Coreweave. And companies downstream from $APLD and $CORZ improve as well from lower counterparty risk.
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长文拆解 SPEED Act 对 Neocloud 和 AI 数据中心的去风险作用
刚刚，SPEED Act 在众议院取得进展。 这是今年 Neocloud 板块（$NBIS、$CRWV、$IREN）最大的单一去风险法案/事件。 下面是原因和梳理： 美国政府正准备以美国对中国的国家安全为理由，支持从 Oracle 到 Nebius 的 AI 数据中心建设。 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 最近跌了 40%+（也把 $NBIS 从 140 美元打到 79 美元、$IREN 从 80 美元打到 35 美元、$CIFR 从 24 美元打到 14 美元），核心恐惧有三点： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预，修复了数据中心建设延迟的空头论点，也解决了利用率滞后带来的盈利问题（利润率）。 #1 数据中心延迟和递延收入 空头 thesis：多年许可延迟（NEPA、输电）把高价值合同变成了递延收入风险。$CRWV 明确把供应商延迟作为下调指引的原因，并在财报后大跌，因为相当一部分收入被推迟到 2026 年 Q1/Q2。 如果 SPEED Act 通过，alpha 在这里： 强制速度和诉讼保护。 - SPEED Act 要求联邦环境和监管审查遵守严格且不可协商的截止日期，通常是 1-2 年。 - 诉讼保护：该法案大幅缩短针对已批准许可提起诉讼的时效，比如缩到 150 天，并指示法院即使许可被临时挑战，也要允许数据中心建设继续推进。 结果：从签约到“GPU 上架 -> 收入流入”的时间线，被压缩了，并由联邦政府在政治上去风险。 递延收入被提前确认，修复了 $CRWV、$APLD 和 Neocloud 板块此前面临的延迟、递延利润/收入问题。 #2 不可持续 CapEx -> 无法从资产变现出 FCF 空头 thesis：公司在 GPU 和建设上花费数十亿美元（$ORCL 的 capex 很巨大），但从购买 GPU 到变现之间的利用率拖累严重影响盈利能力和 FCF。 这也大幅影响 AI Cloud 供应商，因为它们缺乏足够电力来把 GPU/capex 变现。 公司因此面临巨大的减记风险，也就是利用率拖累：GPU 闲置时，折旧和通电成本的时钟仍在跑。 这个拖累对数据中心部门盈利能力影响巨大，The Information 关于 $ORCL AI 利润率极薄的报道也提到过这一点。 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预会直接降低 CapEx 风险，因为速度上的立法要求（修复点 #1）实际上保证电力基础设施会在一个确定且较短的时间线内到位。 这种确定性让 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 可以更有信心安排数十亿美元 GPU 的采购和部署，知道资产到货后就能立即开始变现，同时也通过降低利用率拖累来加快 FCF。 这种结构性变化会流向整个行业。它会立即降低主要 AI Cloud 供应商（$AMZN、$MSFT、$ORCL）的风险，因为它们现在能更确定地保证产能；同时也会保证 Colo/Infra/Energy 提供商（$CIFR、$WULF 等）的需求，因为它们的核心业务就是提供电力容量。 关于 capex -> FCF 以及建设延迟时间线的空头论点，现在已经被 SPEED Act 直接处理。 现在美国政府准备加速 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 这类公司，因为 AI 数据中心已经被放到美国和中国 AI 国家安全竞争的前线。 它能否在众议院通过，是每个投资者都该关注的事。但如果通过，这会是 Neocloud / AI 数据中心建设里最大的、尚未被充分讨论的顺风之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just now, the SPEED Act ADVANCES in the House. This is the single biggest de-risking bill/event for the Neocloud sector ( $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN) this year. Here's why and a rundown: The U.S. GOVERNMENT is set to support the AI data center buildout from Oracle down to Nebius on national security grounds for US vs China. Oracle and CoreWeave recently dropped 40%+ (tanking $NBIS $140 -> $79, $IREN $80 -> 35, $CIFR, $24 -> $14 as well) on three core fears: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. The Speed Act and US Government intervention fixes bear-case points for data center buildout delays and addresses utilization lag profitability issues (margins). #1 DC Delays & Deferred Revenue Bear Thesis: Multi-year permitting delays (NEPA, transmission) turned high-value contracts into deferred revenue risk. $CRWV explicitly cited vendor delays for lowering guidance and tanked on earnings shifting a large portion of revenue to from Q1 Q2 2026. The alpha if the Speed Act passes: Mandatory Speed and Litigation Shields. - The Speed Act mandates strict, non-negotiable deadlines (often 1-2 years) for federal environmental and regulatory reviews. - The Litigation Shield: The bill drastically shortens the statute of limitations for filing lawsuits against approved permits (e.g., to 150 days) and instructs courts to allow DC buildout to continue even if a permit is temporarily challenged). The Result: The timeline from contract signing to "GPUs on racks -> revenue flowing" is now compressed and politically de-risked by the Federal Government. Deferred revenue is pulled forward and fixes delays and deferred profitability/revenue that plagued $CRWV, $APLD, and the Neocloud sector. #2: Unsustainable CapEx -> No FCF from monetizing the assets Bear Thesis: Companies were spending billions on GPUs and construction ( $ORCL's capex is massive) with utilization drag (from the point of purchasing the GPUs to monetization) largely affecting profitability and FCF. This also largely affects AI Cloud vendors (lacking power to turn monetize the GPUs/capex). Again This forced companies to take a massive write-down risk due to Utilization Drag (the time the GPU sits idle while the clock runs on depreciation/power-up). This drag is HUGE for profitability on DC segments, as cited in The Information reports on $ORCL's razor-thin AI margins. The SPEED Act and the US Government intervention directly de-risks CapEx as the legislative mandate for speed (Fix #1) effectively guarantees that power infrastructure will arrive within a defined, short timeline. This certainty allows $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN to time the purchase and deployment of billions in GPUs with high confidence that the assets will begin monetizing immediately upon arrival as well as accelerates FCF from reducing utilization drags. This structural change flows down the entire industry. It instantly de-risks the major AI Cloud vendors ($AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL) who can now guarantee their capacity, and it guarantees demand for the Colo/Infra/Energy providers ( $CIFR, $WULF, and others) whose core business is supplying that power capacity. The bear case on capex -> FCF + buildout delay timeline has now directly addressed with the Speed ACT. Now the US government is set accelerate companies like $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN as AI Datacenters is now placed on the forefront of the AI national security battle between the United States and China. Whether it passes legislation in the House is what every investor should be watching, but if does, this is one of the largest (not-talked about) tailwinds for the Neocloud /AI Decenter buildout.
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恶搞巴菲特名言为满仓 NBIS
@soulbiri1 你可能引用错了，Warren Buffett 最著名的话是：“卖掉一切，满仓 YOLO $NBIS。”
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Probably the wrong quote, most famous Warren Buffet quote was "Sell Everything and Yolo Full Port $NBIS " https://t.co/ugf0YMmRnU
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NBIS 从 140 跌到 80 令人意外，但仍不卖
@soulbiri1 我心里的 WSB 赌徒正在低声说：卖掉一切，加杠杆满仓 $NBIS。 不过从 140 美元跌到 80 美元确实非常令人意外，很难相信它还能比这低很多。 我不会卖！
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 The WSB degen inside of me is whispering sell everything and full port $NBIS on margin. The drop from $140 to $80 though was extremely surprising and it's hard to believe it goes a lot lower than this. I'm not selling!
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称自己愿意继续扛 NBIS 和 IREN
@kameron_payne 那我就开心地继续扛 $NBIS 和 $IREN 了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@kameron_payne I'm happy bag holding $NBIS and $IREN then. https://t.co/iVKXGh1adQ
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用 MU 记忆体行情类比 NBIS 当前投降阶段
是的，很多人原本就认同 $MU（Micron）和内存在 AI 芯片建设中扮演核心角色的观点。 但由于报告里对利润率收缩的担忧，以及中国相关担忧，大家没有等到自己的观点兑现，最后反而带着亏损离场。 现在内存短缺已经出现，早期看对的人被证明一直是对的。但在这轮大涨之后，他们已经不再持有那只股票。 我认为我们现在在 $NBIS 这类股票上也看到了同样情况。大家都看得到它一年后可能成为 AI 版 Amazon Web Services（AWS），同时还叠加 Robotaxi 潜力，但眼下正处在投降/出清阶段。
原推 ↗英文原文
はい、多くの人が $MU （マイクロン）とメモリがAIチップの構築において中心的な役割を果たすという見解を持っていました。しかし、レポートによるマージン縮小の懸念や、中国関連の懸念があり、人々は自分の見解が実現するのを待つ代わりに、結局は損失を抱えることになってしまいました。 今やメモリは不足しており、初期の人々がずっと正しかったことが証明されました。しかし、彼らはこの大幅な株価上昇の後には、もはやその株を所有していません。 現在、私たちは $NBIS のような銘柄でも同じ状況を目にしていると思います。皆、1年後にはロボタクシーと並んでAI版のアマゾン ウェブ サービス (AWS)** になる潜在的な可能性を見ていますが、今は降伏（キャピチュレーション）/売り抜けの局面なのです。
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用 AMD/PLTR/RKLB 历史说明 thesis 未变时应给时间
同意，而且我已经反复见过这种情况。 2016 年的 $AMD，当时人们觉得它能挑战 Intel，后来在 5 美元附近投降。 2023 年的 $PLTR，当时人们相信 AI thesis，后来在做空者活动之后，在十几美元投降。 今年的 $RKLB，当时人们觉得它在 18 美元可能成为下一个 SpaceX，后来在低目标价之后投降。 当你看到很多散户最爱的名字，比如 $BTC、$NBIS、$IREN、$RKLB、$CIFR、$ASTS、$ALAB、$CRCL、$HOOD、$SOFI 等，从历史高位回落时，看看历史案例是有帮助的。 很多时候，当 FinX 因为大家讨论 $NBIS 可能成为下一个 AI 版 AWS，或 $ASTS 可能成为卫星蜂窝领域的下一个 Starlink，而形成所谓“泡沫”时，如果唯一变化的是股价，而不是 thesis，那就给它时间兑现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed and I've seen it time and time again. $AMD in 2016 when people thought it could take on Intel, then capitulation at $5. $PLTR in 2023 when people believed in the AI thesis, then capitulation in the $10's after short seller activity. $RKLB this yeare when people thought it could become the next SpaceX at $18. Then capitulation after low PTs. When you see a lot of retail favorites like $BTC, $NBIS, $IREN, $RKLB, $CIFR, $ASTS, $ALAB, $CRCL, $HOOD, $SOFI, and others dropping from ATHs, it's good to see examples from history. And many of times, when finx forms a "bubble" from discussion that $NBIS is likely to become the next AWS for AI, or $ASTS has the potential to be the next starlink for satellite cellular. If the only thing that's changed is the stock price and not the thesis, give it time to play out.
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认为 Neocloud 板块在长期合同去风险后仍被错杀
同意。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，现在交易得仿佛 $AMZN、$GOOGL 的合同从未发生过。 在整个 Neocloud 板块里，我们看到的是一场崩盘，尽管 Mag7 合同已经让全板块去风险，并提供了长期收入可见性。 $ORCL、$CRWV 以及一些个股因为 OpenAI 敞口而下跌是有道理的，但它把板块其他公司也一起拖下去了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed. Companies like $CIFR are trading like the $AMZN, $GOOGL deals never happened. In the whole Neocloud sector, we’re seeing a crash despite de-risking and long term revenue visibility across the board with Mag7 contracts. $ORCL, $CRWV, and some individual names made sense given OpenAI exposure but it just dragged the rest of the sector alongside it.
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担忧 NBIS ATM 稀释，但认为情绪极低时可能适合买入
$NBIS 的 ATM 发行规模很大，所以可能会持续很长时间。 我真的希望 $NBIS 管理层能战略性地使用它，而不是在被做空期间卖。 现在股东只能相信管理层不会无限稀释，也不会在此时继续增加卖压。 80 美元的股价甚至已经包含 MSCI 流入之后的情况。 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 以及整个 Neocloud 板块情绪都极低，所以如果你还有资金，这可能就是理想买点。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS ATM offering would probably be around for a long time given the size. I really hope $NBIS management does this strategically and not during periods of short selling. Shareholders are just trusting management not to endlessly dilute + add selling pressure at this point. The $80 stock price is even post-MSCI inflows too. $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR and other sentiment for Neocloud sector is extremely low so probably this was the ideal time to buy if you still have capital.
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解释 NBIS/IREN 下跌来自稀释、做空、板块恐慌和散户投降
主要因素是 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的稀释。除此之外，很大程度上是情绪和价格。 不幸的是，$NBIS 有一个 20 亿美元以上的 ATM 正在运行，他们一直在公开市场出售。 再叠加机构空头头寸，再叠加行业龙头 $ORCL 的恐惧，最后是散户在底部投降。 于是你就得到现在的股价，尽管业务基本面还在改善。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well, the main factor is dilution for $NBIS and $IREN. But otherwise it’s largely sentiment and price. Unfortunately $NBIS has a $2B+ ATM running that they’ve been selling on the open market. Then combine that with institutional short positions. And then sector leader $ORCL fears. Then retail capitulation at the bottom. And you get get current stock price. Despite business fundamentals improving.
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认为 NBIS 在多项重大合同后仍按困境资产交易
我指的是，$NBIS 宣布 Microsoft 合同时，股价大概在 90-100 美元，之后涨到 140 美元。合同前是 65-75 美元。 现在，在 $MSFT 190 亿美元合同、$META 30 亿美元合同、以色列政府合同、Cursor/Accenture、$UBER Avride robotaxi 上线 + 3.75 亿美元投资轮等等之后，我们又回到了 80 美元。 Nebius 现在交易得像一只困境资产。
原推 ↗英文原文
Meant when $NBIS annnounced the Microsoft contract they were trading around $90-$100 before rallying to $140. Pre contract it was $65-$75. Now we’re back at $80 after $MSFT 19B deal, $META $3B deal, Israel gov deal, Cursor/Accenture, $UBER avride robotaxi launch + $375m investment round, and so on. Nebius is trading like a distressed asset right now
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惊讶 NBIS 和 IREN 回到 Mag7 合同前更低水平
真没想到我还能再看到 $NBIS 到 80 美元，或 $IREN 到 35 美元。 它们现在的交易价格，比最初宣布 Mag7 合同的时候还低很多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Never thought I’d see $NBIS at $80 or $IREN at $35 again. They’re both trading a lot lower than when they first announced Mag7 contracts. https://t.co/boqDYeyXzL
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分析 robotaxi 对 Uber 的威胁取决于合作方是否竞争
不同意，但这很有细节。 如果是 Waymo，Robotaxi 会毁掉 $UBER 的商业模式。 Uber 大概已经意识到，任何和 Waymo 的连接，最终都会把用户导向 Waymo 的直接应用，而这个应用有一天会替代/绕开 Uber。$GOOGL 完全有能力补贴利用率。 因此，$NBIS Avride 在德州和 Uber 的上线，就是聚合器模式的好例子：他们允许乘客匹配到一家非竞争性 Robotaxi 公司的车，而 Uber 还部分持有这家公司。 这实际上会让 Uber 应用受益。 如果 $UBER 打好牌，Robotaxi 不会杀死它；但如果 Uber 允许 Waymo 和 Tesla 这种有直接竞争应用的公司匹配客户，并把自己的用户导向竞争应用，那 Waymo 和 Tesla 会杀死它。
原推 ↗英文原文
Disagree, but it’s nuanced. Robotaxis will ruin $UBER’s business model if it’s Waymo. Uber likely realizes that every link with Waymo will eventually funnel into Waymo’s direct app that will replace/sidestep Uber one day. $GOOGL has no problems subsidizing utilization. Hence $NBIS Avride Texas launch with Uber is a good example of the aggregator model where they allow riders to match with robotaxis of a non-competitive Robotaxi company that they partially own. And this actually benefits the app. Robotaxis won’t kill if $UBER plays their cards right, but Waymo and Tesla (with direct competitor apps) will if Uber allows customer matching with them + serves as a funnel for their users unto competing apps.
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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仍看多 NBIS，认为 MSFT/META 合同提供中期防御性
我仍然看多。人们似乎忘了，$NBIS 和 $MSFT、$META 的合同覆盖超过半个十年，100% 利用率，总合同规模 220 亿美元。 它们有很强的中期防御性，包括 Cursor 或 $NET 这样的企业用户。 太空中的数据中心目前更像量子一样，是偏近期探索性质，还不是广泛商业化的算力来源。 话虽如此，如果 $NBIS 也拥有一家太空公司子公司，我也不会惊讶，毕竟它们已经有自动驾驶汽车子公司了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Still bullish. People seem to forget the $MSFT and $META deals for $NBIS are over half a decade, 100% utilization, and $22 Billion in contract size. They have great medium term defensibility, including all their enterprise users like Cursor or $NET. DCs in space is more near-term exploratory like quantum right now, not exactly widely commercializable and a source for compute yet. That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if $NBIS also owns a space company subsidiary given then already have self-driving car ones lol.
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认为 FinX 散户泡沫短期拥挤但长期方向常常正确
FinX 是泡沫。/r/wallstreetbets 上的交易员也是。 人们都持有同样的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA 等。 但是：这是好事。 这些年我一遍又一遍看到这种情况。 短期看，当人们买 1-3 个月期权时，他们会在这些“泡沫化”和拥挤交易里亏钱。 但从一年后的长期看，散户对这些公司的方向判断往往是对的。 这才是最重要的部分。 例如，一两年前 $NVDA 刚起飞时，$TSM（140-150 美元）是 Reddit 上最热门的 ticker。 散户方向上看对了，因为 $TSM 是整个 AI 建设的中心。 短期里，所有人都亏钱了，因为他们买了两个月后的 call，而股票横盘，甚至跌到 127 美元。 一年后，它涨了 100%+，那些 call 本来会涨 10 倍。 $MU 也一样。Reddit 知道内存是 AI 热潮的重要组成部分，于是都挤进同一笔交易。 但 $MU 在 100 美元横盘了一整年，大家都亏钱了。 快进到现在，从 Micron 到 SK 海力士，内存成了最热门的东西，股价从 65 美元冲到 245 美元，涨了 200%+。 散户方向上是对的，但中途投降了。 我确信，像 $NBIS 这样的股票，现在正处于散户买了太多短期期权，然后像当年 $TSM 或 $MU 下跌时那样，连股票也一起投降的阶段。 但快进一年，这可能就是 $TSM、$MU 或 $HOOD（18 美元时）那种 3-4 倍回报，当初散户方向其实一直是对的。 我相信 FinX 散户股票“泡沫”在较短时间框架里未必正确，因为 OI、宏观波动和做市商会主导价格；但长期方向上往往是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
FinX is a bubble. Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets. People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others. However: It’s a positive thing. I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years. Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades. Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right. And this is the most important part. For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back. Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout. Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127. One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed. Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade. Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money. Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated. I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along. I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
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博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
原推 ↗英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
原推 ↗英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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对比NBIS与CRWV债务风险，指出市场忽视个体差异盲目联动。
是的，这是个很好的例子。如果你查看 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的可转债发行，由于 $MSFT（Magnificent 7）是它们共同的积压订单，两者的利率都在1-2.5%左右。许多新云厂商受到 OpenAI 的影响，甚至像 $APLD 这样通过 $CRWV（主要租户）间接关联两跳的公司，也不得不以9.25%的利率出售垃圾债券。$NBIS 每年支付约7300万美元利息，而 $CRWV 支付超过13亿美元。但市场似乎因 OpenAI 的传染效应而整体联动该板块，未能区分那些被隔离的个别公司。利息债务、风险和客户锚点的差异是巨大的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep that’s a good example. If you look at convertible offerings for $NBIS and $IREN both their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog. A lot of Neoclouds are affected by OpenAi though and even by two hops like $APLD from $CRWV(main tenant), which had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%. $NBIS is paying ~$73m/year from interest, while $CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B. But the market seems to move the whole sector together from OpenAI contagion without discerning individual companies that are isolated. The difference in interest debt, risk, and customer anchors is massive.
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OpenAI 恐慌引发 AI 供应链板块抛售，独立标的现买入机会。
确实如此。其中很大一部分源于对 OpenAI 的担忧。例如，OpenAI 是 $CRWV 的锚定租户之一；$ALPD 出售垃圾债 -> 信贷收紧。随后板块抛售。显然这是多因素的（例如，套息交易平仓引发的更广泛抛售），ATM 增发/可转换票据 + 部分公司进一步稀释 -> 市场风险偏好下降。但再次强调，$ALPD 和 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 挂钩，而后者与 OpenAI 挂钩。$CIFR、$WULF 通过 Fluidstack 作为锚定方与 $GOOGL 挂钩。$NBIS 为 $MSFT 和 $META 进行建设。这是一个极其微妙的板块，但像 OpenAI 引发的全板块抛售/恐慌也为更独立的玩家提供了买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
They did. A large part of it was OpenAI fears. eg. OpenAI -> one of $CRWV anchor tenant. $ALPD selling junk bonds -> credit tightening. Sector selloff after. Obviously it's multifacted (eg. broader selloff from carry trade unwind), ATM offerings/convertible notes + more dilution for some -> market risk off. But again, $ALPD + $CORZ are linked to $CRWV which are linked to OpenAI. $CIFR, $WULF -> $GOOGL through Fluidstack as anchor. $NBIS -> Buildout for $MSFT and $META. It's an extremely nuanced sector, but whol sector selloff/fears like OpenAI presents a buying opportunity too for the more isolated players.
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Neocloud龙头承压，但获超大规模云商背书的个股是理想买点。
我预计Neocloud股票今天会表现不佳，因为$ORCL/$CRWV是“板块龙头”。 但这将是该板块个股的理想买入机会： 因为市场忽略了$ORCL/$CRWV高负债扩张的主要交易对手是OpenAI这一细微差别。 但该板块的其他公司如$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF则由AAA评级的超大规模云服务商（$META/$META/$GOOGL/$AMZN）的现金牛业务提供背书。
原推 ↗英文原文
I expect a bad day for Neocloud stocks just because $ORCL / $CRWV are "sector leaders". But this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector: Due to the market missing the nuance that $ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty. But other companies in the sector like $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler ( $META / $META / $GOOGL / $AMZN) cash cows.
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板块错杀提供买入机会，NBIS/IREN无交易对手风险且利用率高。
超额收益(alpha)在于了解哪些类型的合同能让人免受当前恐惧的影响，以及行业内哪些个别组件存在定价错误。$MSFT、$META 等公司的算力容量合同是“照付不议”(take or pay)的。 $NBIS、$IREN 等公司由于与“七巨头”(Mag7)（拥有无限资产负债表）签订5年期合同，实际上消除了**交易对手风险**(counterparty risk)。 然而，它们下跌的原因不同（$NBIS 因2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)发行；$IREN 因市场担忧其为将剩余3GW的AI云容量管道变现而进行稀释，而非用于数据中心托管(colocation)）。 然而，主要的普遍担忧是 $ORCL、$CRWV 面临来自 OpenAI 破产+无力支付的严重交易对手风险，但由于它们是两大主要玩家，这引发了整个板块的算法抛售。 但这种板块抛售为一些未受影响（除信贷收紧外）/被误解的公司提供了良好的买入机会。 此外，AI是一个增长的市场，目前可能存在算力紧张（例如 anthropic、gemini 和其他模型），但 $NBIS、$IREN 在超大规模云服务商合同上的利用率基本为100%。 显然，如果存在过度建设，可能会导致利润率压缩，但我们目前尚未看到这种情况。5年后会发生什么，我不知道。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is knowing what types of contracts lead to isolation from current fears and where there's mispricing on individual components in the sector. Compute capacity contracts are take or pay for $MSFT, $META, and others. Companies like $NBIS, $IREN and others are effectively de-risked due to **no counterparty risk** from Mag7 (infinite balance sheets) and 5 Year contracts. However, their drops were different reasons ( $NBIS, 25M share ATM), $IREN fears over dilution for monetizing their rest of the 3 GW capacity pipeline for AI Cloud instead of colo. However, the main overarching fear was that $ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay, but this causes a sector algorithmic selloff because they're the two largest players. But this sector sell-off is a good buying opportunity for some of the unaffected (minus credit tightening) / misunderstood companies. Also AI is a growing market, and there's likely compute strain for the time being (eg. anthropic, gemini, and other models) but it's basically 100% utilization for hyperscaler contracts on $NBIS, $IREN. Obviously if there's overbuild, there's probably margin compression but we're not seeing that right now. What happens after 5 years I don't know.
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AI数据中心客户资金差异大，市场误判导致板块错配机会。
AI 数据中心(AI DC)领域极其微妙。 $ORCL 正基于租户 OpenAI 的积压订单/信用状况，通过债务建设产能。 OpenAI 目前无力履行其义务，且获得资金的可能性越来越小。 $CIFR 正为 $GOOGL、$AMZN 建设产能。 谷歌/亚马逊拥有资金，且这些合同已锁定。 $NBIS 正为 $META、$MSFT 建设产能。 微软/Meta 拥有资金，且这些产能合同已锁定。 但市场目前将所有积压订单都视为来自 OpenAI（不可持续的建设），因此这是买入该板块个别组件错定价的好机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
The AI DC sector is extremely nuanced. $ORCL is building capacity from debt based on backlog/credit worthiness of OpenAI which is the tenant. OpenAI does not have the funds at the moment to fulfill its obligations and it's looking less likely to get it. $CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN. Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in. $NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT. Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity. But the market is currently treating all the backlog like it comes from OpenAI (unsustainable build) which is why it's a good opportunity to buy into mispricing of individual components of the sector.
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甲骨文因OpenAI信用风险大跌，新云板块错杀，建议买入非OpenAI依赖标的。
甲骨文($ORCL)的财报结果及其对$NBIS和$IREN等“新云(Neocloud)”板块的影响： 甲骨文财报EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后仍下跌12%。 甲骨文自9月11日高点以来已下跌39.8%，并拖累了整个板块。 原因如下： 抛售不仅是对营收轻微不及预期的反应，更是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出(Capex)周期可持续性，以及该板块主要租户OpenAI偿债能力的担忧。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加150亿美元至近500亿美元，这与据报道的与OpenAI的3000亿美元合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI作为前沿大语言模型(LLM)，向甲骨文、Coreweave等承诺了诱人的资本支出，推动了板块的初步重估。 然而，随着超过1万亿美元的债务义务以及来自Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等的竞争加剧，市场严重怀疑甲骨文、Coreweave等是否为一家无法通过经营性现金流履行义务的租户建设基础设施。 市场有效发出了信号：甲骨文正在为无法履行承诺的OpenAI提供不可持续的债务融资“供应商融资(Vendor Financing)”。 因此，下跌是理性的：抛售由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重估驱动。 OpenAI资金担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设，由其收入(130亿美元)与义务(600亿美元/年)之间的巨大错配所支持。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文信用违约互换(CDS)利差的扩大表明“信用事件”降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在“新云”板块中引发了传染效应：$NBIS从140美元跌至90美元区间，$IREN从80美元跌至40美元区间，$CIFR从20多美元跌至17美元区间。 但这对于$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司是否是买入机会？ 是的。 这对$ORCL是否是好的买入机会？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL(大部分)和$CRWV(25%积压订单)是两大主要依赖OpenAI的玩家，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间反转(+30%以上波动)。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值进行超额认购的IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，情况可能改变。 然而，许多其他玩家与OpenAI隔离。新云板块的原始逻辑是Mag7从其现金牛业务(Azure, AWS, GCP)向下漏斗资金至：$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL, $CRWV)下跌，算法交易拖累了整个板块。 如果单独看公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL背书，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是来自超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的非理性抛售，为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不包括与OpenAI绑定的$ORCL和$CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN: Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours. Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it. Here's why: The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant: OpenAI. Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI. Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector. However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow. WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises. So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital intensity. OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year). Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default. Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s. But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes. Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No. Forward Outlook: $ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI. If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change. However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others. But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector. If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT. These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI. This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.
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因OpenAI资金风险回避ORCL，看好其他新云厂商回调机会
我一直将 $ORCL 列为回避名单，这次财报导致其下跌11%正是原因所在。 我需要更多时间深入研究，但令人担忧的不仅仅是资本支出(capex)，很大一部分是因为这些支出是为 OpenAI 服务的（而 OpenAI 没有足够的资金来覆盖积压订单）。 其他新云厂商(neoclouds)如 $NBIS 没有这个问题，因为它们的积压订单来自确实有钱的 $MSFT。超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的资本支出漏斗才是新云厂商核心逻辑的核心，而不是像甲骨文那样依赖/受制于 OpenAI。 因此，其他新云厂商随之抛售带来的下跌提供了一个良好的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve been putting $ORCL on avoid and this earnings was the reason why on the 11% drop. I need more time to look into it but it’s not just capex spend that’s worrying, a large part of it is because of OpenAi (which doesn’t have the funding for the backlog) that a lot of the spend is for. Other neoclouds like $NBIS don’t have this problem because their backlog is from $MSFT that actually have the money. And hyperscaler capex funnel was the core Neocloud thesis, not levered/contingency on OpenAi which oracle faces. So selloff on other Neoclouds that got brought down with it presents a good opportunity
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分析NBIS受ATM及空头压制，但基本面强劲且机构增持，高波动需耐心持有。
就我个人对 $NBIS 的观察来看，其表现主要受定向增发(ATM)抛压、板块拖累、短期空头以及19日到期的巨额未平仓合约影响。例如，$CRWV 昨日上涨5.13%，而 $NBIS 同日下跌3.91%，我认为这归因于空头或ATM操作。有些令人遗憾，尽管 $NBIS 是降息的最大受益者（新云(neocloud)板块），但今天下跌2%，而其他散户宠儿如 $RKLB 却上涨8%+。价格走势有时会让你自我怀疑，但即使有10%的稀释，也改变不了你提到的事实：Nebius 2026年底年化经常性收入(ARR)中值为80亿美元，与Avride推出了Robotaxis，与 $META 达成30亿美元交易，Clickhouse增长极快，另外两家子公司同比增长100%，其中Toloka受益于 $META 的Scale收购。机构持股比例目前可能接近52%（上月彭博终端显示50%多，MSCI调整前），较上季度的30%多高，机构确实在从投降的散户手中收购股份。此时持有很痛苦，但请记住作为市场上最高贝塔(beta)股票之一，它在一周内可能波动35%。（在2-3周内从100美元到140美元到95美元再到130美元）。
原推 ↗英文原文
So from what I've seen personally with $NBIS, it's largely ATM overhang + sector drag + short term shorts, and large amounts of open interest expiring on the 19th. For example, $CRWV was up 5.13% yesterday, while $NBIS was down 3.91% same day, and I'd attribute that to either shorts/ATMs. It's a little unfortunate, even as the largest beneficiary of rate cuts (neocloud sector), $NBIS is down 2% today while other retail favorites like $RKLB are up 8%+. Price action makes you doubt yourself sometimes, but even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y with Toloka benefiting from $META Scale acquisition. Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%(bloomberg terminal 50's last month pre msci) from high 30's last quarter and institutions are definitely acquiring shares from retail capitulating. Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week as one of the highest beta stocks in the market. (went from $100 to $140 to $95 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks).
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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批评$NBIS大规模ATM增发导致股价承压，对比$CRWV表现。
$NBIS 有一个2500万股的自动取款机(ATM)增发，很可能正在公开市场上出售。 $CRWV 今天上涨了5.13%+，而 $NBIS 收盘下跌3.91%。这就是为什么我非常讨厌这种规模的ATM增发。 这基本上就是在等待公司完成ATM增发，或者在其他做空者活动的背景下暂停它。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS has a 25 million share ATM that's likely being sold on the open market. $CRWV went up 5.13%+ today while $NBIS ended the day down 3.91%. That's why I really dislike ATMs at this size. It's just basically waiting for the company to finish the ATM offering or pause it amid other short seller activity.
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确认$NBIS期权合约作为示例
@blu400_ 是的，$NBIS 12/19 $130C 就是一个例子
原推 ↗英文原文
@blu400_ I do, $NBIS 12/19 $130C was one example
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日元套利平仓短期利空，中期利好新云板块，建议做多。
短期日元套利交易平仓（日本加息，美联储降息）带来轻微负面影响。中期影响对成长型资产，尤其是涉及债务驱动增长的“新云”板块（如 $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS）应极具看多意义。基本面未见放缓迹象，因此我认为现在是做多的好时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Short term unwinding from yen carry trade (Japan rate hike, fed cut), which was slightly negative. Medium term impact should be incredibly bullish on growth assets, especially Neocloud sector that involve debt for growth like $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS. Don't see any fundamentals slowing, so great time to go long imo
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SMCI因订单延迟致短期利空，但长期增长确定且估值极低，强烈建议买入。
@LandoInvests 很乐意就 $SMCI 进行辩论，我在文中阐述了其因 2026 年第二季度前瞻性营收积压（Forward Revenue Backlog）而注定复苏的逻辑。 https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 将 $SMCI 评级上调至极度强烈买入（EXTREMELY STRONG BUY），目标价约 $33（市值约 190 亿美元）。 • 2026 财年营收预期上调至 360 亿美元以上（较 220 亿美元同比增长 60%+）。 • AI 数据中心（AI Data Center）建设（如 $NBIS、$IREN、$DGXX）使 GPU 服务器需求保持最大化。 这并非 $CRDO 那种营收同比增长 272% 的故事，而是被错估的价值。 原因如下： SMCI 财报后下跌源于两点：对利润率压缩（Margin Compression）的担忧和营收不及预期。 1. 2026 年第一季度的“不及预期”实为订单延迟： • 营收为 50 亿美元，低于此前 60-70 亿美元的指引。 • 然而，这仅仅是 15 亿美元推迟至第二季度，客户在等待英伟达 Blackwell Ultra 配置。且公司甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 2. 利润率压缩担忧： • 2025 财年净利率：约 5.9%（220 亿美元营收对应 13 亿美元净利润）。 • 当前的利润率压缩是暂时的。随着数字租赁中心（Digital Lending Center, DLC）制造沿学习曲线（Learning Curve）下行，单位成本下降，利润率上升。管理层目标下半年毛利率约 11%，净利率回升至约 5.5%。 若毛利率均值回归至约 11%，净利率在 360-380 亿美元营收基础上回归至 5-6%，你将看到 20 亿美元以上的盈利。 营收：380 亿美元 净利率：5.5%（复苏情景） 隐含净利润：20.9 亿美元 股本：6.8 亿股（稀释后） 股价：约 33.85 美元 市盈率计算：33.85 / 3.07 = 11.0 倍 远期市盈率：约 10-13 倍，对于一家拥有 60%+ 远期增长的公司来说，极其便宜。 $SMCI 不依赖 GPU 使用寿命的会计游戏，无论如何它都出售机架。 此外，$NVDA、$NBIS、$CRDO 及其他 AI 数据中心股票在财报后确认 AI 热潮并未放缓。 $SMCI 是 AI/数据中心热潮的核心，同比增长 60%+，但市场却将其视为类似 $MSTR 的困境资产。 因此我建立多头头寸，因为 $SMCI 看起来是硬件板块中风险调整后最具吸引力的 6 个月（中期）交易，拥有 50-100% 的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LandoInvests Happy to debate $SMCI, I put my thesis here on why it's bound for a recovery due to forward revenue backlog in Q2 2026. https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT
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更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
原推 ↗英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
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虽非NBIS死忠粉，但看好其基本面改善，愿逢利空卖出。
@pepemoonboy @Hedgeye 谢谢！不过我并不是 $NBIS 社区的硬核成员。如果基本面发生不利变化，我不怕卖出该股票。但到目前为止，我只看到从母公司到其子公司的积极变化，因此我对该公司的未来感到兴奋。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy @Hedgeye Thanks! I'm not a hardcore $NBIS community member though. If something bad changes to the fundamentals, I'm not afraid to sell the stock. But so far I've only seen positive changes from the parent company down to its subsidiaries so I'm excited for the future of the company.
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看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
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Avride是$NBIS核心资产，自动驾驶出租车市场潜力巨大，机构严重低估$NBIS价值。
根据 Seeking Alpha 报告与 Nuro 的基准对比，其估值现在可能约为 60 亿美元。但我会说 Avride 是 $NBIS 的皇冠明珠，而非 Clickhouse，尤其是当 Waymo 等自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxi) 公司在短时间内估值飙升至 1000 亿美元以上时。 $TSLA 仅因推出自动驾驶出租车就增加了数千亿美元的价值（例如 Cathie Wood 表示自动驾驶出租车可能占特斯拉价值的 90%），这是一个因参与者稀缺而具有极大上行空间的市场。 基本上只有 $TSLA、$GOOGL 的 Waymo、$AMZN 的 Zoox、现代……以及正试图抵御自动驾驶出租车竞争的 $UBER。 $UBER 通过 Avride 而非与 Waymo 合作来扩大其防御能力至关重要，以避免将客户引导至竞争对手的应用程序（例如他们联合投资了 3.75 亿美元的原因）。 鉴于 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 83% 的股份，如果其规模达到约 450 亿美元市值（这是 Waymo 在 2024 年 10 月的估值）……这实际上超过了 Nebius 今天的市值，而它才刚刚在德克萨斯州启动。 像 Hedgeye 这样的基金可能没有计算 SOP 增长，并且严重低估了 Nebius。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably around $6B now as per the seeking alpha report benchmarked vs Nuro. But I'd say Avride is crown jewel of $NBIS, not clickhouse, especially when robotaxi companies like Waymo scaled to a $100B+ valuation in a short time. $TSLA gained hundreds of billions in value just due robotaxi launch (eg. Cathie Wood said robotaxis could be 90% of tesla's value) and it's a market with extreme upside due to lack of players. There's basically just $TSLA, $GOOGL Waymo, $AMZN Zoox, Hyundai... and then $UBER which is trying to defend themselves against robotaxi competition. $UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo -> funneling customers into the other app. (eg. why they joint invested $375M). Given how $NBIS owns 83% of avride, if it scales to ~$45B MC, which was Waymo's valuation BACK in October 2024.... That's literally more than Nebius's marketcap today lol, and it just launched in Texas. Funds like Hedgeye probably aren't accounting for SOP growth and are vastly underestimating Nebius.
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反驳Hedgeye做空逻辑，对比Coreweave指出Nebius财务更健康且业务多元。
做空机构 @Hedgeye 正在做空 Nebius $NBIS。股价现为 $97.8。 他们的观点？Nebius 是 Coreweave 2.0。 Coreweave [ $CRWV ]： - 客户多元化程度低，主要是超大规模云服务商，约四分之一的积压订单来自 OpenAI。 - 剩余现金 18 亿美元。 - 由于 8-10% 利率的有毒融资，每年债务利息超过 13 亿美元。 Nebius 也是如此吗？ Nebius [ $NBIS ]： - 在 Neocloud 市场中拥有最高的客户多元化，包括 $META、$MSFT、政府、$SHOP、Mistral、$NOW 等。 - 剩余现金超过 48 亿美元。 - 票据结构约 40%+ 价外(OTM)，年利率约 2%，每年利息支出约 7660 万美元。 - 拥有对 $UBER 至关重要的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车业务板块（最后一轮融资 $UBER 投入 3.75 亿美元），以对抗 Waymo。 - AI 训练板块由贝索斯资助，并被 $AMZN、Anthropic 等使用。 - 持有子公司 28% 的股份，该子公司被 $TSLA、$NET、Tiktok、$META 等大多数上市公司使用。 - 4 家子公司同比增长 100%，伴随核心运营业务增长，Tripleten/Toloka 每年增加净收入。 这是同一家公司吗。
原推 ↗英文原文
A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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反驳做空 $NBIS 观点，对比其与 $CRWV 在财务及业务上的巨大差异。
做空 $NBIS 是个好主意，因为你认为它和 $CRWV 一样，不错的论点！ $CRWV -> 每年 13 亿+美元的债务利息，拥有来自 OpenAI 的大量积压订单，剩余现金 18 亿美元。 $NBIS -> 可转换票据结构，利息不会严重侵蚀盈利能力；客户基础多元化以实现高利用率（Shopify、Cursor、政府机构、Meta/MSFT 等超大规模云服务商）；拥有 48 亿+美元现金用于建设；Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车板块被 $UBER 使用并正在扩展以与 Waymo 竞争；AI 训练板块由 $AMZN、Anthropic 等资助并使用；持有 28% 的子公司股份，该子公司被大多数上市公司使用，所有 4 家子公司同比增长 100%——市值 240 亿美元。 当然和 Coreweave 是同一家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great idea to short $NBIS because you think it's the same $CRWV, nice thesis! $CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left. $NBIS -> Convertible notes structure where interest doesn't heavily cut into profitability, diversified customer base for high utilization (shopify, cursor, governments, hyperscalers like meta/msft), $4.8B+ in cash for buildout, Robotaxi self driving car segments used by $UBER and scaling up to compete vs Waymo, AI training segments funded by and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others, 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies use, all 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y - $24B MC. Same company as Coreweave for sure.
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对比NBIS与IREN跌幅，探讨基于个股表现与持仓回撤的优劣之争。
@DannyQuark 你说得对，$NBIS > $IREN，因为 Nebius 仅下跌了 17.5%，而非 41.5%。 但你是否想过反方论点：$IREN > $NBIS，因为 $IREN 的持仓今日仅亏损 4%，而非 6%？
原推 ↗英文原文
@DannyQuark You're right, $NBIS > $IREN because Nebius only dropped by -17.5% instead of -41.5%. But have you thought of the counter argument that $IREN > $NBIS because $IREN portfolios faced-4% loss today instead of -6%?
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分析NBIS和IREN财报后大跌原因，认为跌幅过度且受情绪影响。
财报前 $NBIS 股价在 $115-$135 区间。此后因以下利好下跌约 21%-40%：与 $UBER 合作推出 Robotaxi FSD，ARR 预估翻倍，GW 产能指引上调 150%，$META 意外合同，MSCI 纳入带来的资金流入。唯一的利空是 2500 万股稀释。作为投资者我极度反感这一点（更偏好 FCF -> 产能爬坡）。不幸的是，$ORCL 和 $CRWV 的重大债务警告、$CRWV 影响 $APLD 等供应商发行垃圾债及信贷收紧，以及 GPU 折旧论调同时打击了 Neocloud 市场。其中只有信贷收紧是实质性的，不足以解释 $NBIS 的大幅下跌（纯属情绪）。话说回来，他们确实需要改善营销。（例如没人将 Robotaxi 与 $NBIS 关联，主流新闻也不知晓此事）。至于 $IREN，他们出人意料地选择购买 GPU 而非 Colo 服务，鉴于 3GW 产能，投资者可能看到巨大的潜在稀释，因此也下跌了 40%。我相信 $IREN 在营销方面没问题，它拥有像 $ASTS 那样的狂热追随者（这对他们是好事）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pre-earnings $NBIS was sitting around $115-$135. We've dropped over ~21%-40% since then on: Robotaxi FSD launch with $UBER, doubled ARR estimates, increased GW capacity guidance by 150%, surprise $META contract, MSCI inclusion inflow. The only downside: 25m share dilution. Which I extremely dislike as an investor (FCF -> ramp up would be preferred) Unfortunately, TI hit reports on $ORCL, $CRWV major debt flag, $CRWV affecting suppliers from $APLD raising junk bonds + credit tightening, and GPU depreciation arguments all kind of hit the Neocloud market at the same time. Only credit tightening was something material and doesn't warrant that much of a drop for $NBIS (purely sentiment). That being said they need to improve their marketing for sure. (Eg. nobody associates robotaxis with $NBIS at all and even mainstream news don't know about it). As for $IREN, they did a surprising move to buy GPUs instead of colo offerings and given the 3GW capacity investors probably see a huge huge amount of potential dilution, hence the 40% drop too. I'm sure $IREN is fine on the marketing front, it has that cult-like following like $ASTS (which is a good thing going for them).
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NBIS与IREN股价齐跌，反驳IREN更优论。
$NBIS 与 $IREN 之争简而言之： “$IREN 更好，因为——” 两只股票：分别下跌 6.16% 和 4.00%。 市场：🟩 🚀 https://t.co/vAdT3NbkcF
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN debates in a nutshell: “ $IREN is better because —“ Both stocks: -6.16% and -4.00%. Markets: 🟩 🚀 https://t.co/vAdT3NbkcF
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反驳收入无法覆盖折旧论，指出利用率提升带来经营杠杆效应。
“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是错误的，你没有正确陈述单位定价（会下降）与经营杠杆（会规模化）的关系。在“前置投入”阶段，你拥有资产（折旧正在发生），但尚未产生全部收入。随着你为 $MSFT/$META 合同及其他客户启动集群，利用率提高，利润率随之扩张（可变）。因此，“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是谬误，因为收入确实能通过利用率在折旧之上实现规模化增长（折旧是固定的，而收入是可变的）。只需看看 $CRWV 约 74% 的现金利润率，它足以覆盖折旧。（忽略 $CRWV 庞大的利息债务，而 $IREN 和 $NBIS 都没有这种债务）。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is wrong, you're not stating unit pricing (which degrades) vs. operating leverage (which scales) correctly. In the "front loading" phase, you have the assets (depreciation is active) but not the full rev yet. As you turn on clsuters for the $MSFT/ $META contract and others, utilization increases and margins expand (variable). So "revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is false because revenue absolutely scales past depreciation due to utilization. (depreciation is fixed while revenue is variable) Just look at ~74% or so cash margins from $CRWV that cover the depreciation. (ignoring $CRWV's massive interest debt which both $IREN and $NBIS dont have).
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分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险，并点评用户高波动组合。
从我的角度来看： $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力，因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外，他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司，同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值（例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨，但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应）的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会（也许我们只是太早了，不过据我上次检查，机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上，所以有些人可能已经意识到了）。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大，但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易，他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用，且为了加速建设，每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而，这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能，他们选择的是AI云路线，而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务，我会作为投资者极度担忧，因为执行存在不确定性，且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好，因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的，因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书，资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件，且虽然营收增长较慢，但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈（可能回撤50%），但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈，那也没问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.
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建议搭配稳健股以平衡NBIS的高波动风险。
@MMerrino569447 100% $NBIS 可能是上行空间最大的投资组合，哈哈。话虽如此，拥有一些更稳健的复利增长股如 $AVGO 或 $TSM 来追踪更广泛的板块增长是很好的，这样你就不会像最近那样因波动（30-40%的下跌和上涨）而感到过于恐慌。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MMerrino569447 100% $NBIS is probably the highest upside portfolio lol. That being said it's nice to have some steadier compounders like $AVGO or $TSM to track the broader sector growth so you don't get too scared on the volatility (30-40% drops and increases) like of recent.
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解析资本支出会计处理及子公司利润对NBIS和IREN估值的影响。
是的，资本支出(Capex)就是这样进行会计处理的，它会产生固定的折旧，但 Nebius 的营收增长幅度超过了折旧带来的拖累。 此外，子公司+三位数的增长直接计入净利润报表，没有运营支出(Opex)的拖累，而人们通常没有在模型中考虑这一点。 基于你关于杠杆的观点，$IREN 与微软(MSFT)的交易通过预付款实现了更高的杠杆化内部收益率(IRR)，而 $NBIS 的前置投入也意味着大部分现金消耗已结束，从而在 Q4 至 2027 年期间产生经营杠杆。
原推 ↗英文原文
yeah that's how capex gets accounted for, it creates fixed depreciation but nebius rev scales past depreciation drag. Also subsidiaries + triple digit grwoth drop in pure net income into the statement without opex drag, which people don't model for. going off your own points about leverage works with $IREN doing its msft deal with prepayment for higher levered irr, there's also operating leverage with nbis frontloading was majority of cash burn ending -> operating leverage q4 into 2027.
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澄清$NBIS因资本支出前置致2026年净利为负，但Q4盈利且长期利润率可观。
我接受你的提议，看看他们在第四季度财报中会披露什么！期待视频。 我想你可能忘了，SOP Toloka/Tripleten（同比增长100%+）会被计入净利润行。大多数 $NBIS 的资本支出(Capex)都前置到了接下来的4个季度（约50亿美元资本支出），导致2026财年净利润为负，但2026年第四季度盈利，这正是这张快照所显示的。 我们可能会看到管理层预测在2-3年内逐步实现20-30%的息税前利润(EBIT)利润率，而不是在建设阶段（约19.4%的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ll take you up on that offer and see what they report in q4 earnings then! Looking forward to the video. think you might be forgetting sop Toloka/Tripleten (100%+ y/y) gets added to net income line. Most $NBIS capex spend is front loaded into next 4 quarters (~$5B capex) leading to negative net income FY 2026, but profitable q4 2026, which was this snapshot. We’ll likely see management projected 20-30% EBIT margins in 2-3 years over time rather than during the buildout phase (~19.4%ebitda).
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SMCI因订单延迟被错杀，估值极低，AI需求强劲，建议中期做多。
@mhayavkay 关于 $SMCI 将 $SMCI 评级上调至“极强买入”，目标价约 $33（市值约 190 亿美元）。 • 2026 财年营收预期上调至 360 亿美元以上（较 220 亿美元同比增长 60%+）。 • AI 数据中心（如 $NBIS、$IREN、$DGXX）的建设使 GPU 服务器需求保持最大化。 这并非 $CRDO 那种营收同比激增 272% 的故事，而是被错估的价值股。 原因如下： SMCI 财报后股价下跌源于两点：对利润率压缩的担忧和营收不及预期。 1. 2026 年 Q1 的“不及预期”实为订单延迟： • 营收为 50 亿美元，低于此前 60-70 亿美元的指引。 • 但这只是 15 亿美元推迟至 Q2，因客户在等待 Nvidia 的 Blackwell Ultra 配置。且公司甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 2. 利润率压缩担忧： • 2025 财年净利率：约 5.9%（220 亿美元营收对应 13 亿美元净利润）。 • 当前的利润率压缩是暂时的。随着 DLC 制造（数字逻辑芯片制造）沿学习曲线下行，单位成本下降，利润率将回升。管理层目标下半年毛利率约 11%，净利率回升至约 5.5%。 若毛利率均值回归至约 11%，净利率回归至约 5-6%，基于 360-380 亿美元营收，每股收益将超 20 亿美元。 营收：380 亿美元 净利率：5.5%（复苏情景） 隐含净利润：20.9 亿美元 稀释股数：6.8 亿股 股价：约 33.85 美元 市盈率计算：33.85 / 3.07 = 11.0 倍 远期市盈率：约 10-13 倍，对于一家远期增长超 60% 的股票而言，极其便宜。 $SMCI 不依赖 GPU 使用寿命的会计游戏，无论如何它都出售机架。 此外，$NVDA、$NBIS、$CRDO 及其他 AI 数据中心股票在财报后确认 AI 热潮并未放缓。 $SMCI 是 AI/数据中心热潮的核心，同比增长 60%+，但市场却将其视为类似 $MSTR 的困境资产。 因此我建立多头头寸，因为 $SMCI 看起来是硬件板块中风险调整后最具吸引力的 6 个月（中期）交易，潜在上涨空间 50-100%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mhayavkay For $SMCI https://t.co/i9EduOkMGY
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汇总历史个股分析，提及TPU供应链及新型云厂商研究。
如果你关注我平时的帖子，其实我之前已经发布过拆解并讨论过上面提到的每只个股。这只是一个从历史记录中整理的汇总列表。例如，我前不久曾深入分析过 TPU v7 Ironwood 的供应链（$COHR, $AMKR, $LITE, $MPWR）。我也经常发布关于 $NBIS、$CIFR 等新型云厂商的深度研究(DD)。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've actually posted a breakdown + talked about each individual stock up there before if you follow what I normally post. This is just a consolidated list from history. For example I posted a deeper dive on TPU v7 ironwood supply chain not too long ago ( $COHR, $AMKR, $LITE, $MPWR). And I post DD on neoclouds like $NBIS, $CIFR, quite often.
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NBIS处于早期建设阶段，长期利润率提升将带来巨大回报。
目前 $NBIS 正在投入大量资本支出(capex)为其超大规模客户(hyperscalers)建设人工智能数据中心(ai dcs)，并通过子公司（如 Avride）与 Waymo 竞争。 关于远期盈利，管理层引用的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBIT)率为20-30%（即扣除折旧后、税前转化为营业利润的收入占比）。如果我记忆无误，当前的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)率约为19%。 我们将看到净利润在一年左右的时间里大幅增长，这仅仅是早期阶段（建设/扩张年）。否则，如果它今天就有100亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)且保持这些利润率，我们的市值将达到1000亿美元。 我的论点(thesis)是，这只是一场等待游戏，最高的回报来自于从一开始就搭上这波上涨浪潮。
原推 ↗英文原文
Currently $NBIS is using a lot of capex to do buildout for its hyperscalers on ai dcs and subsidiaries (eg. Avride) to compete with Waymo. For forward earnings, management quoted 20-30% EBIT which the percentage of revenue that becomes operating profit after depreciation (but before tax). Current ebitda was 19% or so if I recall correctly. We’ll see net income ramp up immensely in a year or so, this is just early stage (building/scaling year). Otherwise if it were doing $10B ARR today with those margins, we’d be trading at a $100b marketcap. My thesis is that it’s just a waiting game and the highest return comes from riding the wave up from the beginning.
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NBIS属首创，市场将重估其子公司高增长及核心业务价值。
是的，$NBIS 确实是首创。我想不出其他参照物。 市场迟早会将其旗下子公司三位数的增长与其核心运营业务一起计入估值。 $UBER 就是昨天的完美例子：其自动驾驶出租车部门达成了史上最大交易之一，但股价几乎毫无波动，因为算法/市场尚未将网约车业务与 Nebius 联系起来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is actually the first of its kind. I can’t think of any other reference. It’s only a matter of time when markets start to price in all its subsidiaries growing triple digits alongside its core operational business too. $UBER was the perfect example yesterday, one of the biggest deals for its robotaxi division of all time but barely any movement because algorithms/markets don’t associate avride with Nebius yet.
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作者惊叹某公司收入及子公司增速创纪录，远超Uber等巨头。
我是高增长公司的早期投资者。 $RKLB 用于太空领域。 $HOOD 用于金融科技。 $CRDO 用于连接技术。 但我从未 从未，真的从未 见过一家公司的前瞻性收入同比增长超过 700%。 同时拥有 4 家高增长子公司，每家都在同步实现超过 100% 的同比增长。 https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm an early investor in hyper-growth companies. $RKLB for space. $HOOD for fintech. $CRDO for connectivity. But I've never ever, Ever seen a company grow forward revenue: 700%+ Y/Y. and while owning 4 hyper growth subsidiaries concurrently scaling >100% Y/Y each. https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
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分析Uber不会全面牵手Waymo，建议考虑持股且无独立竞争者的NBIS。
@Jason 我100%确定 Uber 不会在所有城市都与 Waymo 合作。如果你经营 Uber，为什么要把所有用户导流到 Waymo 的 app 里？与其跟另一个 FSD-4（4级完全自动驾驶）玩家 $NBIS 合作，还不如选择他们部分持股且没有独立竞争者的那家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jason I'm 100% sure $UBER would not partner with Waymo in all cities. If you were Uber, why would you funnel all your users into the Waymo app one day? Instead of partnering with another FSD-4 player $NBIS avride that they partially own + doesn't have a standalone competitor? https://t.co/BE9J3sl72O
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分析NBIS与CRWV在自动驾驶及云基础设施领域的稀缺性与护城河。
我的意思是，并非所有人都能开发出 FSD 级别的 L4 自动驾驶汽车。美国可能只有 5 家主要玩家：亚马逊、Waymo、特斯拉、$NBIS（Nebius）的 Avride 和 Motional。 除非你的问题是指母公司。 那么在公开上市的 Neoclouds 中，只有 $NBIS 和 $CRWV。其中只有一家拥有巨大的客户多元化（Shopify、Cursor、政府、微软/元等），这有助于提高利用率（对利润率至关重要）。 此外，它混合了全栈 + 软件全栈编排层。例如，GPU 利用率 -> 更快的训练时间 + 降低运营支出，从而通过软硬件结合建立经济护城河。这并不容易创建，$CRWV 花费了数十亿美元和数年时间，这就是为什么矿工/colo 玩家无法轻易转向全栈服务。 如果只有个位数的供应商能做到这一点，那技术可能非常复杂。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean not everyone can develop FSD-level 4 self driving cars. There's probably only 5 main players in the US. Amazon, Waymo, Tesla, $NBIS Avride, and Motional. Unless your question was about the parent company. Then out of public company Neoclouds, there's only $NBIS and $CRWV. Then there's only one with immense amount of customer diversification ( Shopify, Cursor, governments, msft/meta, and so on) which helps with utilization (huge for margins). Also it's mixes full stack + software full stack orchestration layers. eg. GPU utilization-> faster time to train + lowers opex to create an economic moat from software + hardware mix. It's not easy to create this, $CRWV spent billions of dollars and years which is why miners/colo players can't exactly pivot to full-stack offerings. If there's single digit providers that can do things, it's probably technologically very complex.
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质疑用价值投资指标评估高增长AI股NBIS的合理性。
@TravisNott 嗯，$NBIS 的年经常性收入(ARR)从9亿美元-11亿美元增长到约80亿美元以上，增幅超过700%，EBIT利润率在20-30%之间。 此外还有4家像这样的子公司，同比增长超过100%，并烧钱进行全自动驾驶(FSD)开发的资本支出(capex)。 除非你是价值投资而非关注增长，否则这大概是错误的评估指标。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TravisNott Hmm, $NBIS 700%+ growth from $900m-1.1B ARR to ~$8B+ ARR on 20-30% EBIT margins. Then there's 4 subsidiaries like this one, growing 100%+ Y/Y, and burned capex for FSD development. probably wrong metric to use unless you're value investing vs. looking at growth.
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博主因标题低俗感而拒绝关注关于$NBIS的财经故事。
@__visionxry__ @mattrw25 “大做多(The Big Long)”听起来更像是一部成人电影，而不是关于 $NBIS 的财经故事，所以我就不参与了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ @mattrw25 "The Big Long" sounds like an adult film rather than a financial story about $NBIS so I'll pass
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看好NBIS的实时演示，期待其业务扩展至其他州。
@Avrideai 🔥 很高兴看到 $NBIS Avride 的实时视频演示，非常酷，迫不及待想看到它扩展到其他州。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Avrideai 🔥 Love seeing a live video of $NBIS Avride in action, super cool can't wait for expansion in other states.
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对比GOOGL与UBER供应链标的股价表现差异
@babyfolio $GOOGL 使用 Planet Labs。$PL -> +80% $UBER 使用 $NBIS 的 Avride。$NBIS -> -3%，$UBER 上涨 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio $GOOGL uses planet labs. $PL -> +80% $UBER uses $NBIS Avride. $NBIS -> -3%, $UBER up 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
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质疑NBIS因持有自动驾驶公司Avride却被市场低估。
@babyfolio 算法之神和资本市场难道不知道 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 吗？ $UBER 因为自动驾驶汽车市值增加了 65 亿美元以上。而拥有自动驾驶汽车公司的 $NBIS 股价却下跌，市值仅为 230 亿美元？ 我通常更偏向分析，但这完全说不通。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio Do the algorithm gods and markets not know $NBIS owns Avride??? How does $UBER gain $6.5B+ in market cap size off self-driving cars. And $NBIS that owns the self-driving car company goes down and it's only worth $23B?? im normally more analytical but this just made no sense.
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质疑市场对Uber与Nvidia自动驾驶估值逻辑的矛盾。
市场到底在抽什么？ 华尔街因自动驾驶汽车业务，将市值超1800亿美元的$UBER推高3.4%，今日市值增加超60亿美元。 然而，Uber所使用的自动驾驶汽车母公司$NBIS却下跌3%，市值现不足240亿美元。https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx
原推 ↗英文原文
WHAT IS THE MARKET SMOKING??? Wall Street sent $UBER, a $180B+ company, up 3.4%, $6B+ today off of its self-driving cars. But $NBIS, the parent company of the self-driving cars Uber uses, got sent down -3% and is now worth less than $24B. https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx
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反驳特斯拉FSD营销，指出其仍为L2级，对比Waymo的L4优势。
抱歉，那是自我安慰。$NBIS Avride 和 $GOOGL Waymo 现在已有可用的 L4 级自动驾驶系统。特斯拉拥有更具可扩展性的架构，但仍处于 L2 级。 关于 $TSLA： ~30 辆有人监督车辆 vs Waymo 的 2,500 辆无人监督车辆 - 仍需人类安全监控员 - 即使有监控员，事故率也更高 - 每 6.25 万英里发生一次碰撞。 当法律要求人类驾驶员必须在场时，FSD 的说法只是营销噱头。 如果你说 $TSLA 更具可扩展性、单车成本更低（无激光雷达 = 每辆便宜数千美元），且无需地理围栏/预映射即可随处运行，我会同意你。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry that's copium. $NBIS Avride + $GOOGL Waymo have working Level 4 systems now. Tesla has a more scalable architecture that's still at Level 2. With $TSLA you have: ~30 supervised vehicles vs Waymo's 2,500 unsupervised vehicles - Human safety monitors still required - Higher incident rate even with monitors present - Crash every 62.5k miles. The FSD claims are just marketing when legally human drivers are required to be present at the wheel. I would agree with you if you said $TSLA was more scaleable with cheaper per vehicle (no LiDAR = thousands less per unit), and works everywhere (no geofencing/pre-mapping required).
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对比NBIS成熟L4架构与特斯拉纯视觉扩展策略优劣
虽然有点开玩笑，但目前 $NBIS Avride 拥有比 $TSLA 更成熟的 L4 级系统架构（类似于 Waymo 采用激光雷达、摄像头、雷达的方案），且正在主要区域进行类似 Waymo 的地理围栏商业化部署。 $TSLA 的 L2 级系统需要人工监督（FSD 被高估了）。 然而，特斯拉的策略是通过 AI 软件改进，将纯视觉消费者车辆系统扩展至 L4+ 能力。$TSLA 还掌控全栈技术，因此能以极低成本大规模扩展且不受地理围栏限制。
原推 ↗英文原文
Obviously joking a bit but as of now $NBIS Avride has a more mature lvl-4 system architecture (similar to Waymo's approach with LiDAR, cameras, radar) than $TSLA, and is just launching commercially but geofenced in major areas like Waymo. $TSLA level-2 system is supervised and requires human drivers (FSD is overstated). However, Tesla's approach bets on scaling a vision-only consumer vehicle system to Level 4+ capability through AI software improvements. $TSLA also owns the stack so they can build out this to scale extremely cheaply + non geofenced.
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对比Uber与特斯拉Robotaxi发布后的股价反差，感叹市场荒谬。
看到市场反应，我忍不住笑了：尽管 $UBER 在德州推出了基于 FSD 的 L4 级 Robotaxi，但 $NBIS 的股价却下跌了 3%。要知道，该公司的市值仅为 230 亿美元，本来就已经非常小了。相比之下，当 $TSLA 在德州进行软启动时，其股价却飙升了超过 3000 亿美元。市场有时真是有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
テキサス州で $UBER と提携したFSDレベル4のロボタクシーのローンチがあったのに $NBIS の株価が3%下落したという市場の反応を見て、思わず笑ってしまいました。同社の時価総額はわずか230億ドルと、もともと非常に小さいのに。 一方 $TSLA がテキサスでソフトローンチを行った際も、株価は3,000億ドル以上も価値が上昇したんです。 市場というのは、時々面白い動きをしますね。
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对比TSLA与NBIS在自动驾驶级别与市值反应上的巨大反差。
这让人难以理解... $TSLA：L2级自动驾驶的Robotaxi——市场基于其1万亿美元以上的估值，额外增加了约3000亿美元市值。 $NBIS：L4级自动驾驶的Robotaxi——市值230亿美元，却下跌了3.55%。 https://t.co/kMGzihza3V
原推 ↗英文原文
Make this make sense... $TSLA: FSD level 2 robotaxis -> market adds ~$300B off a $1T+ valuation. $NBIS: FSD level 4 robotaxis -> down 3.55% off a $23B marketcap. https://t.co/kMGzihza3V
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Uber联手Nvidia对抗Tesla和Waymo，共享出行市场或现多赢格局。
我会将其框架化为 $UBER + $NBIS Avride 对阵 $TSLA 对阵 $GOOGL Waymo。特斯拉有独立应用。Waymo 也有独立应用。两者都在与 Uber（拥有最大网络）竞争。如果我是 Uber，我会通过 Avride 来增长，以免用户仅仅被引导至 Waymo 的应用。共享出行领域可能有多位赢家（例如 $LYFT + $UBER），因为这是一个巨大的市场。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd frame it more of $UBER + $NBIS Avride vs. $TSLA vs. $GOOGL Waymo. Tesla has its standalone app. Waymo has a standalone app. Both are competing vs Uber (which has the largest network) If I were Uber, I'd grow with Avride on this so they don't just funnel users to Waymo's app. Probably multiple winners (eg. $LYFT + $UBER) for ridesharing since it's a huge market.
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对比特斯拉与NBIS在自动驾驶出租车领域的估值差异。
@longinvest32 $TSLA 的 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L2 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）——市场基于 1 万亿美元以上的估值，增加了约 3000 亿美元的市值。 $NBIS 的 FSD L4 级 Robotaxi——市值 230 亿美元，盘前下跌 1.3%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@longinvest32 $TSLA FSD level 2 robotaxis -> market adds ~$300B off a $1T+ valuation. $NBIS FSD level 4 robotaxis -> down 1.3% premarket off a $23B marketcap.
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Uber整合NBIS自动驾驶出租车，有望加速规模化并降低成本。
这对 $NBIS Avride 来说太棒了，看看 $UBER 是怎么做的。据我了解，其运作方式是：当用户通过 UberX 等常规服务叫车时，系统会匹配 $NBIS Avride 的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）供 $UBER 用户选择。这对规模化至关重要，因为用户无需像选择 UberX Black 那样额外付费去专门寻找自动驾驶服务。初期车内仍有人类驾驶员监控，但随后会像 Waymo 一样逐步取消。如果进展顺利，$UBER 可以扩大其 Robotaxi 网络并节省人类司机成本（这也利好 $NBIS）。
原推 ↗英文原文
So this is amazing for $NBIS Avride how $UBER is doing it. How it works from what I understand is when someone requests a ride with ubebx and the usual, they get matched a $NBIS Avride robotaxi pickup from $UBER and have the option. (this is huge for scale since it's not going out of the way to select a separate robotaxi section for more cost like uberx black). There's a human behind the wheel at the start, just to monitor if things go well. But they'll be phased out like Waymo. IF this works out well, $UBER can ramp up their robotaxi network and save the costs of human drivers (and this benefits $NBIS too).
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Nebius因算法忽视其高增长子公司而被严重低估。
不，这对 $NBIS 来说甚至算不上新闻。 就在刚才，Avride 与 $UBER 的合作发布可能是该投资组合公司十年来最大的头条，但在 $GOOGL / $HOOD 等新闻聚合器（算法也依赖这些）上，这甚至与 Nebius 不相关。 这就是为什么我一直认为 Nebius 在结构上被错误定价和误解，因为有像 Avride 这样 4 家同比增长 100%+ 的子公司，但市场/算法并没有将这些动态部分纳入定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nope, it’s not even news for $NBIS. Just now, Avride launch with $UBER is probably the biggest headline of the decade for the portfolio company but its not even correlated to Nebius on places like $GOOGL / $HOOD news aggregators (which algorithms rely on too) This is why I’ve been arguing Nebius is structurally misvalued and misunderstood because there’s 4 subsidiaries like Avride growing 100%+ Y/Y but markets/algorithms aren’t pricing in the moving parts
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Nebius子公司Avride联手Uber在德州推出L4级Robotaxi，开启商业化。
最新消息：Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）子公司 Avride 已与 $UBER 合作在德克萨斯州正式推出。 自 2017 年经过近十年的开发，Avride 终于将其自动驾驶汽车技术投入全面商业运营。 https://t.co/DSPRvmNw3f
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Nebius [ $NBIS ] FSD level 4 Robotaxi subsidiary Avride has now launched in Texas in partnership with $UBER. After nearly a decade of development since 2017, Avride is finally taking its self-driving car tech into full commercial operation. https://t.co/DSPRvmNw3f
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澄清NBIS是纳指100候选股而非标普500。
@rioferdy838 @Neomeldir 是的，$NBIS 是纳斯达克100指数(Nasdaq 100)的候选股，我想你指的是标普500指数(S&P 500)。
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@rioferdy838 @Neomeldir Yeah $NBIS is a candidate of nasdaq100, think you're thinking about S&P 500
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对比NBIS与IREN融资稀释影响，指出DC建设需购GPU导致稀释不可避免。
关于 $NBIS，时机确实是个巨大因素，他们在宣布 $70-$90亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）后进行了操作。此外，MSCI 的资金流入也抵消了大部分稀释，下个月可能还会纳入纳斯达克100指数。 对于 $IREN，我目前的观点是：如果他们想通过拥有 GPU 的 AI 云（AI Cloud）变现其巨大的算力容量，就需要进行大量稀释。这不仅仅是“拥有 3GW 容量 x 一定收入”那么简单，当他们不做托管（Colocation）业务时，还需要购买 GPU。 现有股东/市场可能不喜欢这一点。特别是仅针对 $MSFT 的交易，硬件成本就高达约 $58亿（如果我记得没错的话）。虽然他们获得了预付款，但仍需筹集更多资金。 长期来看这是净正面的，但任何当前持有者都会感到痛苦。 即使是 $NBIS 的融资，我也非常不喜欢稀释，希望他们通过运营利润来融资剩余部分，但这是数据中心（DC）建设的现实。Nebius 起初就有更大的现金储备（坐拥 $48亿+），相比 $IREN 他们受到的冲击稍小一些，但让我们看看会发生什么。
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With $NBIS yeah timing was a huge factor that they did it after announcing $7-$9B ARR. They also had MSCI inflows to offset a lot of the dilution too and maybe nasdaq100 next month. For $IREN my opinion so far is that if they wanted to monetize their immense of capacity in their AI cloud with GPUs, there needs to be a ton of dilution. It's not just oh we have 3GW capacity x amount of revenue, they need to buy the GPUs too when they're not doing colo. Existing shareholders/markets probably don't like that. Especially with spending ~$5.8B in hardware costs (if i remember correctly) for the $MSFT deal alone. They got pre-payment but they still needed to raise more. Long term it's net positive but anyone holding now would feel a lot of pain. Even for $NBIS raise I really disliked dilution and wanted them to finance the rest through operational profit, but that's the reality of the DC buildout. Nebius already had a bigger cash pile to begin with (was sitting on $4.8B+) compared to $IREN, so they're a tad more isolated but we'll see what happens.
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承认对方对IREN的研究，指出与NBIS估值标准化存在分歧。
@Agrippa_Inv @RJCcapital @MarkosAAIG @moninvestor @pepemoonboy @DeepValueBagger @amitisinvesting @Sandeman52 不，说真的，我相信你们为 $IREN 制作了很好的内容，并且更了解那家特定公司。我认为我们在 $NBIS 的指标标准化(normalizing figures)问题上存在分歧。
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@Agrippa_Inv @RJCcapital @MarkosAAIG @moninvestor @pepemoonboy @DeepValueBagger @amitisinvesting @Sandeman52 nope, in all seriousness, I'm sure you produce good content for $IREN and know more for that specific company. i think we just come to a disagreement when it comes to to normalizing figures vs. $NBIS lol
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博主为粉丝制作并赠送了NBIS周边商品。
@babyfolio 也给你做了一份，$NBIS 的周边完好无损 https://t.co/ouiTGg8xJ6
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@babyfolio Also made you one too with the $NBIS merch in tact https://t.co/ouiTGg8xJ6
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对比NBIS的高增长潜力与SMCI的估值修复机会。
所以是不同的股票组合。我会这样解读： - $NBIS：高贝塔值，超高速增长，未来走向难料。潜在上行空间最大（核心业务同比增长700%，Robotaxi FSD部门等4家子公司同比增长100%+）。 例如，如果$UBER本月在德克萨斯州与Avride合作的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）发布顺利并扩展至其他地区，我们可能会看到该子公司估值大幅上升。 - $SMCI：盈利，估值修复带来中等回报（仍有~30-60%的回报空间）。同比增长60%，但远期市盈率仅为11倍，像$PYPL这样的零增长股或像$MSTR这样的困境资产。 对于SMCI，更多是看数据和行业，发现错配（例如$UPWK的价值投资逻辑）。
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So different basket of stocks. How I'd frame it is: - $NBIS: high-beta, hyper growth, who knows where it goes. Highest possible upside (700% Y/Y core business, 100%+ Y/Y across 4 subsidiaries like Robotaxi FSD division). For example if $UBER Texas robotaxi launch goes well with Avride this month and they expand elsewhere, we could see the subsidiary valuation rise a lot. - $SMCI: profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock eg. $PYPL / distressed asset like $MSTR. For SMCI it's more about looking at the numbers/sector and seeing a misalignment (eg. $UPWK value investing)
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调侃为建数据中心而清理葡萄园。
@RJCcapital @sam_badawi @NighthawkTradez @amitisinvesting @mvcinvesting 看起来 Vineland 已经没多少葡萄藤了。想必是为了给新的 $NBIS 数据中心腾出空间，把丛林都清理掉了。
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@RJCcapital @sam_badawi @NighthawkTradez @amitisinvesting @mvcinvesting Doesn’t look like there’s many vines anymore in Vineland. Must have cleared out the jungle to make room for the new $NBIS datacenter
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分析NBIS、IREN和CRWV商业模式优劣及新云厂商时间窗口。
好问题。麦肯锡曾就此话题发文（我觉得写得极差，因为他们以 $CRWV 为主要锚点）。 但其中部分观点成立，并对 $IREN 等公司发出警示。他们的观点： - 当前的裸金属租赁商业模式薄弱且脆弱 - 避免过度依赖少数大客户 - 开辟可防御的利基市场（如主权计算、专用工作负载） - 通过收购整合或成为超大规模云服务商 这些确实正确，但未能捕捉到一些细微差别。 关于 $NBIS： - 极度多元化（这构成了利用率的强大护城河，对利润率计算至关重要） - 全栈式（可防御的利基市场） - 通过收购整合（旨在成为超大规模云服务商，拥有4家同步增长的子公司） 这就是我说它具有最高非对称上行潜力的原因。 关于 $IREN： - 当前的裸金属租赁业务目前是护城河。文章指出长期来看它很脆弱，这是正确的。因此 $IREN 正通过与 $MSFT 合作开展 GPU 基础设施即服务(IaaS) 向上攀登全栈阶梯，并可能尝试构建上层软件层（尽管这很难） - 我们将拭目以待，这需要极高的执行力。 关于 $CRWV - 老实说，我不知道他们如何摆脱债务陷阱 - 他们试图用 $NVDA 作为后盾，但这充其量也很脆弱（例如 OpenAI 拥有 1 万亿美元以上的资本支出，试图争取政府 + 科技七巨头提供资金担保） 新云厂商是一场与时间的赛跑，我同意文章的观点（这就是我说高确信度持有2年，而非5年以上的原因）。 他们拥有从科技七巨头(Mag7)弱势中获取收入的绝佳窗口期 -> 将收入转化 -> 建立长期差异化和护城河。 我不知道最终结果如何，但我们将拭目以待。
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Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor). But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims: - current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile - avoids overreliance on a few giant customers - carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads) - consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances. So for $NBIS: - Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations) - Full-stack (defensible niche) - consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it) That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch. For $IREN: - current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard) - We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution. For $CRWV - idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh - they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding) Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ). They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats. I don't know what will happen, but we'll see
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AI云股被算法归篮联动，CRWV财务堪忧，NBIS/IREN长期价值或超CRWV。
是的，完全同意。我认为算法/市场目前将 $NBIS、$IREN 归入 $CRWV、$NVDA 的篮子中。因此，任何关于 Coreweave 的负面报道都会对其他公司产生负面影响。我们终于看到 $WULF、$CIFR 等被归入数据中心(colocation)篮子（相对不受 GPU 贬值论点影响），并表现优异。但坦率地说，$CRWV 是一个财务噩梦，只要它被视为新云(neocloud)行业领导者，就会影响其他公司。至于 $NVDA，$GOOGL 的 TPU 论据是我目前看到的针对 $NVDA GPU 云业务最强的看空理由，但这些公司已经从 $META、$MSFT 锁定了 5 年的超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)合约。我认为市场最终会正确定价，我相信 $NBIS 和 $IREN 有一天会比 $CRWV 更有价值，但其中只有一家拥有自动驾驶 Robotaxi lol。
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Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now. So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform. But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader. As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT. imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol
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NBIS产能指引大增追平IREN，长期竞争力趋同
事实上，截至第三季度财报，$NBIS 将其签约产能指引提高了2.5倍，并在长期层面几乎追平了 $IREN。然而，$IREN 在前置并网产能（现在至2026年上半年）方面拥有巨大价值。但从2026年下半年起，$NBIS 在这方面似乎已迎头赶上（截至Q3，签约电力指引从3 GW调整为2.5 GW）。
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So actually as of Q3 earnings, $NBIS 2.5x'd its contracted capacity guidance and achieved near long-term parity with $IREN. However, $IREN has a tremendous amount of value in front loaded grid-connected capacity (now -> H1 2026). But H2 2026 onwards, $NBIS looks like it caught up in that front (3 GW to 2.5 GW contracted power guided as of Q3)
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回应反馈，重申对NBIS作为十年一遇机会的高置信度持仓逻辑。
感谢反馈，我会铭记于心，并照常发布其他主题的内容！ 我昨天发布了关于 $NVDA 等标的的深度研究(DD)，但正如你提到的，近期内容主要集中在 NeoCloud 板块。我之所以聚焦于此，是因为近期新闻密集，且巨大的抛售引发了大量关注！ 具体到 $NBIS，这是我持仓两年中信心最高的一笔投资。我认为这是继 $NVDA 之后十年来难得的机会，你很少看到一家核心公司净利润同比增长 700%，同时旗下 4 家投资组合公司净利润均实现 100% 的同比增长。 其中一家恰好是一家非常酷的自动驾驶 Robotaxi 公司（我是 Waymo 和 $TSLA Robotaxi 的粉丝）。
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Thanks for the feedback, I'll take it to heart and do posts on other stuff as usual! I posted DD about stuff like $NVDA yesterday but recently as you mentioned it's been mainly about the neocloud sector. I've been focused on it because of how much news there was recently + the huge sell off attracted a lot of attention! For $NBIS in specific, it was my highest conviction 2 year hold. I just see it as the opportunity of a decade since $NVDA, you don't really see any core company growing its bottom line 700% Y/Y with 4 separate portfolio companies growing 100% Y/Y. One of which happens to be a super cool self-driving robotaxi company (I'm a fan of Waymo, $TSLA robotaxis).
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博主更正$MSFT数据错误，澄清计算逻辑并建议忽略特定图表。
是的，$MSFT 的交易数据确实有误。这是最后时刻加进去的，但我本应该仔细校对一下。 不幸的是无法编辑 X 帖子，所以我就留在这里说明： - 计算时使用了混合估算值，例如芬兰设施（Mantsala）。你说得对，$MSFT 的交易应该仅按美国本土交易计算。市场费率可能在 200 万美元以上。 - 我根据 X 上的多个 GPU 场景做了拆解，但这只是其中之一。$NBIS 先提升 H200 产能，随后部署 GB300，但这并未展示全貌，所以请忽略该图表。 标准化表格仍然有效，可作为粗略的相对比较。
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Yep, the $MSFT deal in specific was off. Threw that in last minute but should have proof-read it. Unfortunately can't edit X posts but I'll just leave this here: - Used a blended estimate eg. Finland facility (Mantsala) for caluations. You're correct in saying $MSFT deal should be US-only deal calculations. Market rates would likely be around $2.0M+ - Did a breakdown of multiple GPU scenarios off X but this was just one of them. $NBIS was ramping up with h200 first then deploying gb300's down the road, but doesn't show the full picture so ignore the chart. Normalization table still stands as a rough relative comparison.
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澄清 $MSFT 交易估算差异及图表错误，确认 H100 数据有效。
你在 $MSFT 这笔交易上的看法是对的。我在托管设施(Colocation)方面使用了混合估算值，$NBIS 在其他地点拥有设施，但对于 $MSFT 这笔特定的独立交易，托管费会有所不同。此外，我在进行 GPU 标准化(GPU normalization)的不同对比时，用错了图表。右侧的 H100 标准化数据仍然有效。
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You're right on the $MSFT deal. I used blended estimates for colocation, $NBIS owns facilities in other location but for specific $MSFT deal standalone, the colocation fee would be different. Also was doing different comparisons for GPU normalization, and used the wrong chart. H100 normalization on the right should still stand.
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澄清NBIS成本估算逻辑及与微软合作路线图
与 $MSFT 的对比有些偏差，但 H100 的标准化处理虽然带有推测性，应该更稳健。 我使用了整个投资组合的混合估算值，例如芬兰设施（Mantsala），那里的数据中心租赁费实际上为 $0（仅包含折旧摊销+运营支出）。当他们从 DataOne 租赁美国设施（新泽西州 Vineland）时，我对其进行了平均处理。 正如其他人指出的那样，仅就 $MSFT 的交易而言，租赁成本可能要高得多，接近每兆瓦 $180万-$220万的市场价格。 $NBIS / $MSFT 的合作不仅限于 H200。GB200/B300 也在路线图之中。我当时正在对比 H200、H200 和其他 GPU，最后顺手加上了这个。可惜帖子发晚了没法编辑。 感谢大家的提问。
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The $MSFT comparison is off but the h100 normalization, while speculative, should be more robust. I used a blended estimate of entire portfolio eg. Finland facility (Mantsala), where colo rent is effectively $0 (just D&A + OpEx). When they lease the US facility (Vineland, NJ) from DataOne and I averaged it. For the $MSFT deal only, the lease cost is likely much higher closer to market rates of $1.8M-$2.2M per MW as someone else pointed out. $NBIS / $MSFT is not limited to H200. GB200/B300 is on the roadmap too. I was doing comparisons with H200, H200, and other GPUs and threw that in at the end. Too late to edit the post though. Appreciate the questions.
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看好NBIS为行业龙头，静待市值超越CRWV。
@babyfolio 在我看来，它已经是明确的领导者！只等市场将 $NBIS 的未来增长/利润率计入定价，使其市值超越 $CRWV。
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@babyfolio It’s already the clear leader in my view! Just waiting for market to price in $NBIS forward growth/margins and the marketcap overtaking $CRWV.
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对比NBIS与IREN的微软交易，指出NBIS收入溢价及IREN利润率被高估。
是的！关于收入溢价的观点确实很有帮助。但我认为细微差别体现在 $MSFT 的交易中（这显示了 $NBIS 和 $IREN 每兆瓦的利润率差异）。 Nebius 的微软交易使其每兆瓦年的收入比 IREN 的微软交易高出约 19-20%。许多毛利率数据因资产负债表会计处理而被夸大，因此我发此帖以标准化利润率。 $IREN 的实际杠杆内部收益率可能更接近 20%，鉴于其与戴尔的数十亿美元支出，使用这一指标可能优于 85% 的项目息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）数据。 $MSFT 基于合理推测（结合靠近 Azure 服务器的地理位置和软件优势）更看重 $NBIS 的完整人工智能云平台。如果 $IREN 在顶层软件和基础设施即服务（IaaS）层面补齐短板，其未来利润率和合同有望缩小这一差距。
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Yep! Definitely some helpful points about the revenue premium. But I think the nuance did show up in the $MSFT deal (which shows the margin difference between $NBIS and $IREN per MW). Nebius’s MSFT deal gives it ~19–20% higher revenue per MW-year than IREN’s MSFT deal. A lot of the gross margin figures are inflated by balance sheet accounting, hence why I made this post to normalize margins. $IREN 's realized levered irr is probably closer to 20%, it's probably better to use that over the 85% project EBITDA figures since they're spending billions with Dell. $MSFT values $NBIS full AI cloud platform more from an educated guess (mix of location closer to azure servers and software). If $IREN closed the software on top level and iaas level, its future margins/contracts could close that gap.
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英伟达虽面临谷歌TPU等定制芯片竞争，但中期统治力稳固，逢低买入。
英伟达($NVDA)公布的2026财年Q3营收为570.1亿美元(+62.5% YoY)，表现强劲。并指引Q4营收超650亿美元(超预期30亿美元+)，以及通过CY 2026年Blackwell/Rubin系列营收超5000亿美元。尽管如此，股价仍下跌12%。现在$NVDA是强力买入吗？答案如下： $GOOGL的TPU项目成为首个对$NVDA GPU构成竞争替代的方案，Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，Meta据报道正在就数十亿美元的TPU采购进行高级别谈判。沃伦·巴菲特近期也向$GOOGL投资超40亿美元，鉴于伯克希尔对科技股保守的投资立场，这极为罕见。 尽管创下盈利新高，英伟达股价在过去10个交易日中有6天下跌，较10月29日触及5.03万亿美元市值时的历史高点$207.04下跌约12-15%。 分析师反应普遍看多，普遍上调目标价： - Evercore ISI从$261上调至$352 - 美银从$235上调至$275 - 花旗从$220上调至$270 - 高盛从$240上调至$250 - 摩根士丹利从$220上调至$235 但这里有个价值万亿美元的问题：超大规模客户日益增长的定制硅片威胁是否会削弱英伟达在AI领域的统治地位？ 与主要捕捉英伟达GPU缺货时的溢出需求的$AMD不同，谷歌的TPU项目代表了根本不同的竞争动态。 TPU v7 Ironwood是首款在性能上与Blackwell持平的非英伟达加速器，提供4.6 petaflops的FP8性能（对比B200的4.5 petaflops），配备192GB HBM3e内存。 Ironwood的架构差异化显著。虽然英伟达最大的集群配置为72个GPU(NVL72)，TPU Ironwood可扩展至9,216个芯片组。 客户斩获显著且不断增长： - Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，价值“数百亿美元”，1GW算力即将上线。 - Meta正在就2026年从谷歌云租赁TPU容量进行高级别谈判，并计划2027年直接采购硬件用于自有数据中心。 - 苹果透露Apple Intelligence基础模型完全在TPU上训练，使用8,192颗TPUv4芯片用于服务器模型。 - Midjourney从GPU转向TPU，推理成本降低65%（从每月200万美元降至70万美元）。 定位微妙。TPU在超大规模推理方面表现出色，在生产级大规模服务中成本性能最高提升4倍（目前）。在训练方面，英伟达优势明显。 对于高度优化的推理任务，TPU架构可能比$NVDA的通用GPU更高效。 然而，我预计下一代英伟达GPU将在许多场景下在推理性能上超越TPU。（类似于LLM之间GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5的迭代超越） 我们看到： 谷歌TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA、微软Maia和定制超大规模芯片都在扩展，但仍依赖$NVDA。但超大规模客户集体减少对英伟达的依赖，其累积效应是否会削弱英伟达的统治地位？ 答案：不会。至少未来两年统治地位稳固。之后如何纯属猜测。 仅看数据：Q3结果证实公司仍是AI不可或缺的基础设施提供商，5000亿美元的订单积压为2026年提供了极高的可见性。 但市场似乎正在定价3年+后的这种微妙现实：长期面临超大规模客户定制芯片的竞争不确定性。 英伟达产能完全售罄，且很可能在下一代芯片中超越TPU性能（推理性能更高且保持通用性）。但定制硅片威胁和44倍市盈率的估值担忧仍是逆风。 无论如何，鉴于出色的超预期财报和未来两年的订单积压，$NVDA目前因恐惧而下跌，似乎是中期强力逢低买入的机会。 你只需要记住这一点： 只要英伟达仍是AI工作负载的行业首选，且TPU和AMD GPU仅在需求超过英伟达供应时填补空白，它就是强力买入标的。 英伟达订单积压已满，AI需求并未放缓。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026. Despite that, the stock dropped 12%. Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer: $GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments. Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap. Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board: - Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261 - Bank of America raised to $275 from $235 - Citigroup raised to $270 from $220 - Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240 - Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220 But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI? Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic. TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory. Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods. The customer wins are significant and growing: - Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online. - Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027. - Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models - Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly) The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage. For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU. However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5) We're seeing: Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance? The answer: No. Not yet. Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation. Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026. But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips. Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind. Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years. This is the only thing you need to remember: NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply. Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.
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认为META和NBIS被低估，建议维持现有持仓。
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho 两者都被低估了，我会保持对 $META 和 $NBIS 的现有持仓不变。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho Both are undervalued I’d just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is
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看好$NBIS长期表现，认为其将摆脱短期波动大幅跑赢。
$NBIS 刚刚经历了一段“修炼期”，此前被它最亲密的朋友 Macrosuke 背叛。 我坚信在未来的一两个月内，凭借新获得的“剧情护甲”，它将强势复苏。 在之前大幅盈利后，我的持仓目前接近成本价。但只要你的仓位没有被强制平仓，长期来看它应该会大幅跑赢大盘。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is just in its training arc after being betrayed by its closest friend Macrosuke. Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two. I’m around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn’t get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.
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感谢粉丝，认为评论区讨论有助于深入理解各公司差异。
@retail_mourinho 谢谢！ 我也很喜欢评论区讨论进一步凸显了 $CRWV、$NBIS、$CIFR、$DGXX 等公司之间的细微差别。 这让学习过程更有趣，对话也更引人入胜。
原推 ↗英文原文
@retail_mourinho Thanks! I also like how a lot of the nuances between each company like $CRWV, $NBIS, $CIFR, $DGXX and others get highlighted further in comment section discussions Makes for more engaging learning + conversations
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提及NBIS Q2财报电话会议中的口头信息难以确证。
@OperationATM $NBIS 2025年第二季度财报电话会议。是的，这只是口头提及，所以很难确切了解 https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
原推 ↗英文原文
@OperationATM $NBIS Q2 2025 earnings call. Yeah it’s only mentioned verbally so it’s a bit hard to know https://t.co/qT9O2LWHMB
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认为$NBIS因FSD收入预期而被严重低估。
@EarningsMindset 是的，管理层已经预测在2-3年内，来自Avride FSD（完全自动驾驶）的收入将达到数十亿美元。对于$NBIS来说，这被极度低估了。 https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
原推 ↗英文原文
@EarningsMindset Yeah management already projected few billion in revenue from Avride FSD in 2-3 years. Extremely underpriced for $NBIS https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8
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Scale被Meta收购后，AI训练平台用户被迫转向NBIS等替代品
@RKLBMan 还有那个同比增长150%的AI训练/标注平台呢 lol 这是在Scale刚以290亿美元估值被$META收购之后——现在被迫转向$NBIS等其他平台的使用者（超大规模云服务商）
原推 ↗英文原文
@RKLBMan And the AI training/labeling platform growing 150% y/y lol This is after Scale just got bought by $META at a $29B valuation -> hyperscalers that used it now are forced into other platforms like $NBIS
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NBIS因自动驾驶出租车业务被低估，市值仅210亿。
是的，完全不明白为什么人们不更多地讨论 $NBIS 的自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）业务，毕竟他们拥有第四级自动驾驶（Level 4 FSD）能力，且将在几天内启动。人们购买 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 以获取相关敞口，但 $NBIS 市值仅为 210 亿美元，除了自动驾驶出租车外，还有许多其他公司和核心业务相伴。它可能是市场上最被误解且被低估的成长型公司之一。不幸的是，金融圈（finx）只是一个微小的泡沫，即使这里的人开始理解，其他地方大多数人甚至不知道 Nebius 拥有一家已研发 7 年的自动驾驶出租车公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days. People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis. Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market. Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years
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看好NBIS高弹性及长期增长潜力，认为当前市场低估其价值。
是的，$NBIS 是一只极高贝塔（Beta）的股票，能在1周内波动30-40%。特别是到了12月，如果有降息+圣诞行情（如果没有日元套利交易（Yen Carry Trade）的干扰），可能会直线上涨。但即使 $NBIS 涨到160美元我也不会卖出，因为这更多关乎市场提前多久给股票定价。（目前市场戴着眼罩，看向错误的方向）2026年的前瞻数据（Forward Numbers）将非常强劲，2027年更是未知。当你的核心业务可能在两年内达到130亿美元+的年经常性收入（ARR），且所有副业业务同比增长100%+时，未来不久很容易成为一家1000亿美元+的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is an extremely high beta stock capable of moving 30-40% in 1 week timeframes. Especially come December when there’s a rate cut + Santa rally (if there’s no yen carry trade shenanigans), could see a straight line up. But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn’t sell it because it’s more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. (Right now markets are wearing blindfolds and looking the wrong direction) Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026, and who knows for 2027. When your core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years and all your side businesses are scaling 100%+ Y/Y, could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future.
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博主感谢粉丝并重申对NBIS长期逻辑的信心。
感恩节快乐，Kohai！我会永远感激你打印出来的冰箱备忘录。抱歉，过去一个月市场对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票并不友好。如果我在帖子中提到的股票跌破了我的成本均价，我总是感到非常内疚。但我坚信，从长远来看，我的投资逻辑在方向上是正确的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Happy Thanksgiving Kohai! I will always appreciate the fridge printout you made. Sorry markets haven’t been to friendly to a lot of the stocks like $NBIS in the past month. I always feel really bad if I post about something and it goes below my cost average too. But I have strong conviction that my thesis is directionally correct in the longer run.
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通过拆解子公司业务与高增长数据，论证 $NBIS 分部估值被低估。
没有大家想的那么久！ 我对过去提到的任何与金融相关的内容都有极其敏锐的记忆。所以我只是即兴拼凑线索，然后做一些额外的研究来核实 $NBIS 的事实。 我记得对于 Avride，人们一直将其与小型食品配送车联系在一起，所以想发布一篇关于自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）方面（这是主要机会）的更新、增长、机会以及他们具体业务的深度分析。 对于 Toloka，人们只是提起这个名字，但并不理解其估值、增长、客户或具体业务。所以想发这篇帖子。 Clickhouse 可能是大家最了解的一个，但人们没有意识到许多 Nebius 子公司的同比增长率都是三位数（通常 30-45% 就算很好了），所以 140% 是非常高的 lol。 当我提到分部加总估值（Sum of Part Valuation）被极度低估时，帮助人们自己得出这个结论，而不是只听我的一面之词，会更有帮助。所以我只是尝试提供我内部思考的论证。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not as long as people think! I have an extremely sharp memory of anything financial related that gets mentioned in the past. So I just kind of piece things together on the fly and then do some additional research to double check facts for $NBIS. I remember for Avride people kept associating it with the small food delivery carts so wanted to post a deeper dive into the robotaxi aspect (which is the main opportunity) updates, growth, opportunity + what they do. For Toloka people just drop the name but don’t understand valuations, growth, customers, or what they do exactly. So wanted to make this post. Clickhouse is probably the most understood one but people don’t realize many of Nebius subsidiaries are growing triple digits Y/Y (usually 30-45% is good) so 140% is extremely high lol. When I talk about sum of part valuation being extremely undervalued, it helps for people to come to that conclusion themselves rather than taking my word for it. So I just try to provide the argument I’m thinking about internally
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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指出市场严重低估 $NBIS 的 L4 自动驾驶业务及其与 Uber 合作的巨大潜力。
我看到的关于 Avride 的帖子主要围绕小型配送机器人！真正的价值来自于 $NBIS 自 2017 年以来一直在开发的自动驾驶 FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）L4 级部门。 人们把 Clickhouse 当作金蛋，但真正的 $300B+ 美元机会在于 Avride 与 $UBER 大规模合作，与 Waymo / $TSLA 竞争。 我想指出 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力，通过深入挖掘其分部加总价值，市场对此严重、严重低估。 这不仅仅是“估值为 $X”然后打个 40% 的折扣，它还将以极其荒谬的高速增长，就像其核心业务一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017. People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA. Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues. It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.
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NBIS旗下Avride具L4自动驾驶能力，有望成高增长黑马。
精彩的帖子。如果在日本庆祝的话，感恩节快乐！ 核心论点是，Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）是一个数万亿美元规模的巨大市场，人们正在通过投资 $TSLA 和 $GOOGL 来寻求该领域的敞口。 然而，在特斯拉、亚马逊、谷歌、现代这五大主要玩家中，鲜为人知的另一家是 $NBIS 旗下的 Avride，它拥有 Level 4（L4）级完全自动驾驶技术。经过7年的开发和研发投资，该公司正与 $UBER 一起迈向商业化，并与 Waymo 和 Tesla 展开竞争。 因此，如果 Nebius 在核心的数据中心业务之外，还拥有一家并行且超高速增长的无名子公司，它将成为市场上增长最快的公司之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！ 主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。 しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS 傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。 このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。
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博主讽刺NBIS靠卖周边胜过IREN和CIFR
@babyfolio 我不同意，$NBIS 显然是赢家，相比 $IREN 和 $CIFR，Nebius 的帽子周边商品将带来多少额外收入。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio disagree, $NBIS is clearly the winner compared to $IREN and $CIFR due to how much added revenue the Nebius hat merch will bring in
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看好$NBIS极高增速及低市值潜力，类比Waymo扩张前景。
我见过$HOOD，也见过$META在IPO时的表现。除了$NVDA可能之外，我从未见过任何单一公司能像$NBIS这样以如此惊人的速度扩张。 在年经常性收入(ARR)已达10亿美元以上且同比增长300%+的基础上，还能实现700%+的同比增长，这种增长速度简直高得令人难以置信。 这仅仅是核心业务的表现。 在我上面的帖子中，Avride正处于像Waymo与$UBER合作那样大规模扩张的边缘。如果他们在德克萨斯州的启动顺利，我们可能会在地图上的各个地方看到它的出现。 很难给出目标价。我通常不会为单只股票唱多，但我从未见过一只具有如此荒谬高潜力的股票，其市值却如此之低。
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I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. That's just the core business alone. In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map. Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.
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计划通过分部估值分析 Clickhouse 潜力，以阐释 Nebius 价值。
Clickhouse 确实非常强大(OP)，但我尚未对其进行单独分析，因为 $NBIS 仅持有 28% 的股份。不过，我完全能看到 Clickhouse 未来成为一家市值 500 亿美元的公司，我可能会写一篇后续帖子，涵盖所有分部估值(Sum-of-Parts)，以帮助人们理解 Nebius 的价值主张。
原推 ↗英文原文
clickhouse is pretty OP, but haven't made an individual analysis on that yet since $NBIS only owns 28%. But i could definitely see clickhouse becoming a $50B company one day, i'll probably made a follow up post and cover all sum-of-parts to help people understand nebius value proposition
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看好NBIS两年期200美元看涨期权
@Perugius__ 哦，是的，对于 $NBIS 来说，将几个月到期的期权换成两年后到期的期权，这种风险管理没问题。 我强烈认为 2027 年 12 月到期的 $200 看涨期权会行权！
原推 ↗英文原文
@Perugius__ Oh yeah that's fine risk management for $NBIS swapping out few month expiry to 2 years out. Strongly believe Dec 2027 $200 calls will hit!
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NBIS旗下自动驾驶子公司Avride被严重低估，具备投资潜力。
是的，$NBIS 是一个迷人的分部加总(Sum-of-Parts)估值脱钩案例，其隐藏资产——高增长的自动驾驶Robotaxi子公司 Avride，在母公司市值中被严重低估。这在公众中鲜为人知。但所有人都渴望通过 Waymo 或 $TSLA 获得 Robotaxi 领域的敞口。这仅仅是 Nebius 进行的众多副线任务之一，我本打算写一系列文章介绍其他项目，但鉴于我是自动驾驶汽车的粉丝，我个人最喜欢 Avride。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is a fascinating sum-of-parts disconnect example where a hidden asset yet high growth self-driving robotaxi subsidiary Avride, is severely undervalued within the parent company's MC. It's very little known to the public. But everyone is dying to get exposure to robotaxi players looking at Waymo or $TSLA. This is just one of the side quests Nebius is doing, I was going to do a series on the others, but I personally liked Avride the most given how I'm a fan of self-driving cars.
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分析Robotaxi竞争格局：Waymo领先，Uber联手Avride和WeRide应对巨头威胁。
欢迎反驳关于 $TSLA 是 FSD SAE 2级自动驾驶的观点。特斯拉被归类为2级，是因为其 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）始终有人远程监控。埃隆正在追求一个更宏大的计划，即采用摄像头+非地理围栏解决方案，所以我做的并非简单的同类比较。以下是三点看法：1. 如果他能制造出可重复使用的大型太空火箭，我毫不怀疑他最终能在地球上实现他的计划。2. Waymo 明显领先于其他所有竞争者。3. 我的观点是，来自 $GOOGL、$TSLA、$AMZN 等万亿美元市值公司的个位数 Robotaxi 玩家正在与 $UBER 竞争。Uber 视此为威胁，因此正与 $NBIS 的 Avride（美国）、WeRide（中东、中国）合作，以在明年扩大规模。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feel free to dispute the point that $TSLA is FSD SAE level 2 automation. Tesla is classified as level 2, because in their robotaxis, you have people remotely behind the wheel at all times. Elon is pursuing a more ambitious plan with cameras + non-geofenced solution so it's not an apples to apples comparison I'm making. That being three things: 1. I have no doubt Elon can achieve what he's planning in due time back in planet earth if he's able to create large reusable rockets that go into space. 2. Waymo is clearly ahead of all other players. 3. Point I'm making is there's single digit robotaxi players that all come from trillion dollar company exposure in $GOOGL, $TSLA, $AMZN that compete vs $UBER. Uber sees this as a threat so they're working with $NBIS Avride (United States), WeRide (Middle East, China) to scale it up over the next year.
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对比巨头与Avride在自动驾驶出租车领域的竞争格局及Uber布局。
🎯 对我观点的评论一针见血。人们将自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxis)视为一个万亿美元以上的市场。 $GOOGL Waymo 正在快速扩张并拥有先发优势。$TSLA 押注低成本+摄像头以实现大规模完全自动驾驶(FSD)出租车，但尚未完全到位。 人们通过购买万亿美元市值的 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 来获取这种自动驾驶出租车敞口。 然而，有一家市值仅 210 亿美元的小公司 Avride，它是少数几家 Level 4 开发者之一（自 Yandex 以来已开发 7 年以上）。 Uber 认为 Tesla + Waymo 构成巨大威胁，因此通过与 $NBIS Avride 合作进行扩张（因此有 3.75 亿美元投资+合作），我们可以看到这将在未来一年与其核心业务一起极其迅速地扩大规模。
原推 ↗英文原文
🎯 Spot on commentary of my point. People see robotaxis as a trillion + dollar market. $GOOGL Waymo is expanding rapidly and has first mover advantage. $TSLA is banking on low cost + cameras to achieve FSD robotaxis at scale but aren't quite there yet. And people buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for that self-driving car robotaxi exposure through trillion dollar companies. Yet, sitting in some small $21B marketcap company is Avride, one of the only Level 4 developers out there (that's been in development for 7+ years since Yandex). Uber sees an immense threat from Tesla + Waymo so they're expanding with $NBIS Avride (hence the $375m investment + partnership) and we can see this scale up extremely rapidly over the next year alongside their core business.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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博主预告将发布关于NBIS的深入分析帖。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 是的，我会再发一篇帖子解释今天关于 $NBIS 的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK Yes, I’ll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS
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看好传统云商，CRWV或成新云代表，板块成员间接受益。
鉴于数据的重要性，概率上更倾向于像 $ORCL 这样的联邦云(FedRamp)提供商以及像 $AMZN、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 这样的传统超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)。 $CRWV 可能是最有可能成为新云(Neocloud)代表的公司，但他们仍处于应用阶段。$NBIS 的可能性不大。 话虽如此，新云板块的其他成员也是间接受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Prob just fedramp providers like $ORCL and traditional hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT given how critical the data is. $CRWV is probably the most likely Neocloud but they’re still in application phase. $NBIS is unlikely. That being said, other Neocloud sector members are indirect beneficiaries.
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梳理新云领域中小玩家定位，类比AI版AWS。
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF 作为像 $CIFR 一样的数据中心托管(Colo)服务商，属于新云(Neocloud)领域。$IREN 凭借带有 GPU 的全栈 IAAS 服务也归入此类。 但唯一的全服务纯新云玩家是 $CRWV 和 $NBIS。 不过它们都属于那个新类别：充当 AI 版 AWS 的小型参与者。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF is in the neocloud sector as a colo player like $CIFR. $IREN falls there too under full-stack IAAS with GPUs. Only full-service pure Neocloud would be $CRWV and $NBIS. But they're all under that new category of small players acting as AWS for AI.
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警惕OpenAI泡沫，看好Mag7资本支出受益的AI基础设施股。
我对“AI泡沫”的主要担忧是OpenAI及其1万亿美元资本支出(capex)的承诺。这显然是一个泡沫（以及大语言模型LLM的私人估值）。其他大多数方面则不然。 任何直接依赖他们的公司，如$ORCL、$CRWV，鉴于AI模型在技术上已超越GPT，可能会陷入困境。所以简单的做法就是远离它们！ 就我个人而言，ChatGPT 5.1的表现糟糕透顶，我实际上取消了订阅，转而使用Gemini/Claude。Claude Opus 4.5在编码任务上优于Codex。Gemini在图像生成上优于ChatGPT。此类例子不胜枚举。 无论如何，AI将长期存在，任何与Mag7相关的（$GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF），（$MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS），以及连接性如$ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7)都极具前景，因为它们是Mag7自由现金流(fcf)增加资本支出的直接受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
The main fear I have in the "AI Bubble" is OpenAI and their $1T capex promises. That is a clear bubble (and private valuations of LLMs). Most other things, no. Any company directly reliant to them $ORCL, $CRWV might be in trouble given how AI models leapfrogged GPT. So the simple thing to do is stay away! Personally speaking, ChatGPT5.1 is horrendous and I actually cancelled my subscription to go with Gemini/Claude. Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms Codex in coding tasks. Gemini outperforms ChatGPT in image generation. Can go on and on. Regardless, AI is here to stay, and anything Mag7 related ( $GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF ), ( $MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS), connectivity like $ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7) is extremely promising since they're the direct beneficiaries of increasing capex from mag7 fcf
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看好$NBIS因Robotaxi子公司潜力被低估，预期市值可达400B。
$NBIS 的核心业务令人惊叹。但更疯狂的是，其子公司在一年内的潜在价值可能超过主营业务。目前市场上没有公开的自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)公司。获取相关敞口的唯一途径是通过 $TSLA 的 Robotaxi 业务和 $GOOGL 的 Waymo。$NBIS 持有 AVride 83% 的股权，估值约 60 亿美元，并与 $UBER（也是投资者）合作以竞争 Waymo。马斯克一直宣传 Robotaxi 是一个万亿美元的市场。如果这家公司不久后市值达到 400 亿美元，我也不会感到惊讶。话虽如此，$NBIS 目前 21 美元的估值简直低得可笑。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS core business is insane. But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo. And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future. That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.
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机构增持NBIS至近50%，预示其将成下一超大规模云服务商并即将拉升。
我确信机构已经知道 $NBIS 正在蓄势成为下一个超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)。 从13F文件来看，我们的机构持股比例从上季度的38%上升到了本季度的44%。 现在根据彭博终端(Bloomberg terminal)数据，$NBIS 的机构持股比例已达到48.8%-50.42%（鉴于昨日纳入MSCI指数+未来一两周更多资金流入，实际比例可能更高）。 正如我之前在 $HOOD 的案例中所说，对于这类优质公司，机构往往会在迎来大幅拉升前，先积累到55-75%这一“甜蜜点”的持股比例。 机构正在通过暗池(dark pools)买入散户的投降筹码。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler. We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter from 13F filings. Now from Bloomberg terminal data, we're now at 48.8%-50.42% institutional ownership of $NBIS (with likely more after MSCI inclusion yesterday + more inflows the next week or two). As I said before with good companies like $HOOD, institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up. Institutions are buying retail capitulation, but just through dark pools.
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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借鉴FTX投资组合经验，探讨核心业务搭配高增长子公司的科技巨头成长路径。
这是一个合理的评论，因为很多人对FTX这个词有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，且存在大量负面联想。（我并非试图制造这种联想）。 然而，尽管他们存在会计欺诈，他们在现代任何初创企业中做对了一件事，即投资组合公司的增长/投资。当散户进行长期投资时，我们可以从中吸取一些教训。 在过去4年中，我们看到了这些回报（1000%+）的成果，这正是我发布的内容。 核心观点是，如果你拥有一家像Google Search（例如 $NBIS）这样合法的运营业务，并将其与像YouTube一样的超扩展子公司（例如Avride, Clickhouse）相结合，那就是成为下一个科技巨头的完美组合。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's a fair comment since a lot of people have PTSD with the word FTX and there's a lot of negative associations. (which im not trying to make). However, despite their accounting fraud, they did one thing right out any other startup in the modern era, which was portfolio company growth/investments. And there's some lessons we can take from that when retail does long term investors. We got to see the fruits of those returns (1000%+), in the past 4 years, which was what I posted about. The core point was that if you had a legitmate operational business like Google Search (eg. $NBIS) , and paired it along with Youtube-like hyper scaling subsidiaries (eg. Avride, Clickhouse), thats the perfect mix to becoming the next tech giant.
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分析超大规模云厂商数据中心模式差异及潜在合作逻辑
我不会像某些特定的 $BMNR 或 $IREN 投资者那样盲目吹捧，认为街上的绿灯就意味着对公司利好。所以我倾向于认为这只是巧合。因为看起来 $AMZN、$GOOGL 倾向于偏好数据中心托管(Colo)模式（因为他们可以插入自己的 TPU、未来的 Trainium 芯片），而 $MSFT、$META（以及 99.9% 使用 $NVDA 且没有现成定制芯片的 AI 公司）则偏好 $NBIS、$IREN 类型的模式。所以 $AMZN 宣布在印第安纳州为其 AWS 数据中心部门投资 150 亿美元。但关键要注意的是，他们此前在那里已经花费了 313 亿美元，所以这并不算全新投入。你可能看到了 $NBIS 正在印第安纳波利斯附近建设 1000 多英亩的绿地数据中心。这只是一个有利于建设的区域，可能并非针对合作伙伴关系或像 Anthropic（最近承诺 400 亿美元资本支出）那样的另一笔超大规模云厂商交易。说实话，我现在可能更相信 Anthropic 的资本支出承诺而不是 OpenAI。话虽如此，也许如果 $AMZN 耗尽容量并达到与 $NVDA 的最大采购订单上限（因为他们正在插入自己的 $CIFR 芯片），他们可能会转而使用 Nebius。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm not going to be a blind shill like some specific $BMNR or $IREN investors that can say a green light on the street means bullish for the company. So I would lean coincidental. Since it looks like $AMZN, $GOOGL tends to favor colo models (since they can plug in their own TPUs, Trainium chips in the future) while $MSFT, $META (and 99.9% of AI companies that use $NVDA and don't have custom chips readily built out) prefer $NBIS, $IREN type models. So $AMZN announced they're investing $15B in Indiana for their AWS DC segment. But key thing to note is they've already spent $31.3B there before so it's not exactly new. You probably saw how $NBIS is doing a 1000+ acre greenfield DC near Indianapolis. It's just a favorable area for buildout, probably not directed at a partnership and another hyperscaler deal like Antrhopic (who committed $40B in capex spend recently). I'd probably trust Antrophic more than OpenAI right now with capex spend lol. That being said, maybe if $AMZN runs out of capacity and hits max purchase order with $NVDA (since they're plugging in their own chips with $CIFR), they would use Nebius instead.
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对比NBIS的爆发式增长与CIFR的稳健长期价值。
从我在AI增长板块的观察来看，是的，$NBIS 极其罕见，因为它前身是 Yandex。作为背景，这基本上相当于俄罗斯的百度/中国或谷歌/美国，他们将 Avride 等子公司剥离至 Nebius。至于 $CRWV 等其他公司，它们对 Monolith AI 等收购案更多是为了补充现有核心业务，而非像 $NBIS 那样实现三位数的独立同比增长。而收购 Weights and Bias 花费了17亿美元（据我了解其增长并不快）。至于其他数据中心/矿企，不幸的是比特币增长也不快，但长期来看防御性很强。因此，例如 $CIFR 通过其资产负债表的增长速度会慢得多。但从长期来看，作为股东持有它非常稳健，符合其下行风险较低的数据中心(colocation)模式和较慢的收入爬坡模型。如果你想一年内从0做到2000亿，$NBIS 是做法；如果你想用5年做到，$CIFR 是选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before. For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius. For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers) As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower. But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model. If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.
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NBIS资金充裕，建议保留高增长子公司并寻求并购以超越当前市值。
$NBIS 应该拥有足够的资金来支持建设，包括 48 亿美元现金储备加上 25 亿美元自动取款机(ATM)融资，以及从收入合同中获得的任何自由现金流(FCF)都将重新投入建设。 我认为 Nebius 管理层指的是如果出现极端的信贷紧缩，他们将出售投资组合中的公司，这在最后关头是合理的。 但他们处于健康的状态。如果我是他们，我会让它们继续增长，并寻找更多的并购(M&A)，就像 FTX 在加密领域所做的那样，或者 Meta 早期在核心运营业务之外对社交网络的投资，以建立更稳固的防御。 如果 Avride 成为一家 250 亿美元的企业，或者 Clickhouse 成为一家 800 亿美元的企业（鉴于它们的增长轨迹，这两种情况都非常可能），这些单独的业务价值将超过当前的市值。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS should have enough to fund buildout through $4.8B cash stack plus $2.5B ATM + any fcf they get from revenue contracts gets put back into buildout. I think Nebius management were referring to if there was extreme credit tightening, they would sell off portfolio companies, which would make sense in a last ditch scenario. But they're in a healthy spot. If I were them I would let them all keep growing, and look for more M&As like what FTX did in the crypto sector, Meta early stage with social media networks alongside their core operational business for more defensibly. In the event Avride becomes a $25B business or Clickhouse becomes a $80B business (which are both extremely plausible scenarios given their growth trajectories), those individual stacks would be worth more than the current market cap.
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质疑某两家公司仅为NBIS用户而非被投企业
@Dream5728363541 那两家公司难道只是 $NBIS 的用户，而不是其投资组合中的被投企业吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
@Dream5728363541 Aren’t those two just users of $NBIS, not portfolio company investments?
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认为市场低估了$NBIS及其子公司Avride的超大规模扩张潜力。
我觉得市场也错过了 $NBIS 的故事。Jim Cramer 就是一个典型的例子。 我认为我们只是处于早期阶段，但最高的回报往往来自于此。尤其是当市场折价子公司，且未将其随核心业务超大规模扩张(Hyperscaling)的因素计入定价时。 存在一种遥远的可能性，即其中一家子公司（Avride）的规模会超过主营业务。
原推 ↗英文原文
I sort of think the market missed the $NBIS story too. Jim Cramer for one is the perfect example. Think we're just early but that's where the highest returns come from. Especially when the market discounts subsidiaries and doesn't price in that they're hyperscaling along the core business. There's a distant possibility where one of them (Avride), becomes larger than the main business.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.
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博主复盘整体盈利，详述NBIS、META等持仓盈亏及FLY长期逻辑。
总体来看我盈利颇丰。我刚才指的是上个月，当时像 $NBIS 这样的许多收益都被抹平了。 目前我在 $NBIS 上的持仓成本平均在 90 多美元，这让我感到意外。 $META 在最近几次看涨期权（option calls）交易中的成本均价为 640 美元，但由于我做了看涨期权，该头寸目前亏损六位数。 但我曾在 3000 美元时买入 $BTC，在 14 美元左右买入 $RKLB，在 20 美元时买入 $HOOD。 关于 $FLY，正如我之前的论点所述，这是基于 2026/2027 年中型有效载荷（medium-lift payloads）催化剂的投资。无论短期股价如何波动，都不会改变中型载荷是否研发成功的事实。 如果一年后他们最终未能研发出中型载荷且股价崩盘，你可以嘲笑我。
原推 ↗英文原文
Overall I'm up a lot. I was just referring to this past month where many of my gains like $NBIS were wiped out. I'm below cost average right now on $NBIS in the $90s, which was surprising. $META was $640 cost average on recent calls but I'm down 6 figures on that position since I did option calls. But I bought stuff like $BTC at $3k, $RKLB around $14 and $HOOD at $20. On $FLY as I said before in my thesis, it was a 2026/2027 catalyst play on medium-lift payloads. Whatever the stock price short term doesn't really change whether medium-lift developed. You can laugh at it if in a year if they end up failing to develop medium lift and stock price craters.
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宏观分化加剧，但股票基本面优于宏观逆风。
这是一个价值百万美元的问题，也说明了在全球市场高度互联的背景下，宏观环境有多么复杂。通常，三次降息是极其看涨的，往往会导致次年 $SPY 和 $QQQ 指数获得两位数涨幅。然而……此时日本央行(BOJ)正在加息。但如果美联储降息而日本央行加息，就会出现分化：美元融资成本更低，日元融资成本更高 -> 巨大的利差变化，这可能会加速日元套息交易(Yen Carry Trades)的平仓。我不知道确切答案。但我推测，我们可能已经看到了这些恐慌情绪的最坏阶段，许多高贝塔(High-Beta)股票在日本央行加息前提前下跌了40%。而且抛售导致许多像 $NBIS 或 $META 这样的股票脱离了基本面。所以有一点是肯定的：股票基本面 > 宏观逆风。
原推 ↗英文原文
So that is a million dollar question and speaks how to incredibly complex macro is given how interconnected markets are globally. Normally triple rate cut is extraordinarily bullish and normally leads to double digit $SPY $QQQ index gains the following year. However... this comes at a time where BOJ is raising rates. But If the Fed cuts and BOJ raises, you get a divergence: cheaper USD funding, more expensive JPY funding -> big differential changes, which could accelerate unwinding of yen carry trades. I don't know the answer. But my speculation is we've likely seen the worst of these fears play around where many high-beta stocks dropped 40% preemptively in advance of BOJ rate hike. And the sell-off has led many stocks like $NBIS or $META to be detached from fundamentals. So one thing is for sure though: fundamentals of stocks > macro headwinds.
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高确信度组合本月回撤，预期12月降息后反弹创新高。
@itsdsha 只能说，对于我高确信度组合中的 $ALAB、$HOOD、$IBIT、$META、$NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 来说，这一个月确实不好过。预计随着12月降息落地，一个月后情况会好转。大多数短期保证金/期权交易者已被清算，而此类事件往往推动市场创出新高 https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsdsha Let's just say it hasn't been a fun month for my high conviction port of $ALAB, $HOOD, $IBIT, $META, $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM for sure. Should be fine in a month come Dec rate cut. Most short term margin/option traders got liquidated, and events like these lead to higher highs https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
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四大流动性冲击引发高杠杆资产暴跌，但AI巨头基本面未变。
市场刚刚经历了近代史上最严重的去杠杆冲击。 高贝塔资产正在崩溃： • $NBIS, $IREN, AI 股票从高点下跌约 40%+ • $MSTR, $BTC 在过去一个月暴跌 30-40%+ • 加密货币市值蒸发超过 1.2 万亿美元 这不正常，这是针对市场上增长最快且杠杆最高的板块的强制平仓。 以下是同时发生的四个流动性流失因素： 1. 加密货币前兆冲击（2025 年 10 月 – Binance 故障） • Binance 的定价错误导致 USDe 跌至 0.65 美元，在 24 小时内触发了超过 190 亿美元的强制清算 • 使用 USDe/wBETH/BNSOL 的高杠杆头寸（25x–50x）引发了全行业连锁保证金清算的连锁反应 • 该事件使加密货币结构脆弱，波动性现在威胁到流入 $MSTR/国债股票超过 70 亿美元的 MSCI 资金，存在 BTC/NAV 错配和强制出售比特币的风险 2. 美联储政策不确定性（降息鞭打效应） • 在美联储发出矛盾信号后两天内，市场对 12 月降息预期从 97% → 35% → 70%+ • 这种波动起到了隐性紧缩的作用，迫使杠杆基金和算法（在 $NVDA 财报后看到的情况）提前去杠杆 • 政策模糊性提高了全球风险，将美国的不确定性传导至全球融资市场的广泛抛售 3. AI 信贷压力（投机性债务破裂） • AI 建设需要 3.5 万亿美元的外部融资，促使公司大量进入债务市场 • Google + XAI 在 Similarweb 上的使用量提升引发了人们对 OpenAI 和循环融资的担忧，以及 $1T+ 的资本支出流向 $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD 等公司，而这些公司并没有必要的资本。 • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] 23.5 亿美元垃圾债券（评级 B+）暴露了交易对手和集中度风险，由于需要更多债务来资助建设，其股票及相关数据中心股票下跌。 • 资本市场开始区分拥有真实现金流的公司和依赖投机性债务及 OpenAI 合同的公司，惩罚了如 $ORCL 和 $CRWV 等标的。 4. 日元套利交易平仓（催化剂） • 日本央行加息至 0.5% 及正常化缩小了美日利差，挤压了 80 万亿日元（约 5000 亿美元）的杠杆头寸 • 日本国债收益率上升引发回流资金，给美国收益率带来压力并抽干全球流动性 • 强制平仓导致投资者出售美国科技股和加密货币以偿还日元贷款，加剧了避险情绪的连锁反应 底线： 所有四个冲击都从市场的同一角落抽干了流动性——高贝塔、高杠杆资产，导致成长型科技和加密货币剧烈去杠杆，并增加了进一步强制抛售的风险。 过度的杠杆、脆弱的资产负债表和集中度风险决定了哪些资产跌幅最大。 美联储开启新一轮降息周期是一个“拐点”，投资者需要判断这种宽松是预防性措施还是对更严重衰退的反应。然而有一件事是确定的： 宏观冲击重置了估值，但并没有改变从 $NBIS 到 $META 的企业基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets just suffered their worst deleveraging shock in recent history. High-beta assets are collapsing: • $NBIS, $IREN, AI stocks are down ~40%+ from peaks • $MSTR, $BTC plunged 30-40%+ in the past month • Crypto erased over $1.2 trillion in value This wasn’t normal, it was a forced unwind across the markets with the most growth and leverage. Here's the four liquidity drains hitting at once: 1. Crypto precursor shock (Oct 2025 – Binance failure) • A pricing error on Binance sent USDe to $0.65, triggering $19B+ in forced liquidations in 24 hours • Highly leveraged positions (25x–50x) using USDe/wBETH/BNSOL cascaded into a chain reaction of cascading margin liquidations across the industry • The event left crypto structurally fragile, and volatility now threatens $7B+ MSCI inflows into $MSTR/treasury stocks, risking BTC/NAV mispricing and forced Bitcoin sales 2. Fed policy uncertainty (rate cut whiplash) • Markets priced a December cut at 97% → 35% → 70%+ in two days after conflicting Fed signals • This volatility acted as a stealth tightening, forcing leveraged funds and algorithms (seen post $NVDA earnings) to deleverage pre-emptively • Policy ambiguity raised global risk, transmitting U.S. uncertainty into broad selling across global funding markets 3. AI credit stress (speculative debt cracks) • AI build-out requires $3.5T in external financing, pushing companies heavily into debt markets • Google + XAI raise in usage per similarweb raised concerns about OpenAI and circular financing, alongside how $1T+ in capex spend going into $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD, and others without having the ncessary capital. • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] $2.35B junk bond (rated B+) exposed counterparty and concentration risk, sending its stock and related data center stocks down due to the need of more debt to fund buildout. • Capital markets began differentiating between firms with real cash flow and those reliant on speculative debt and OpenAI contracts, punishing names such as $ORCL and $CRWV. 4. Yen carry trade unwind (the catalyst) • BoJ rate hikes to 0.5% and normalization narrowed the U.S.–Japan rate gap, squeezing ¥80T (~$500B) in leveraged positions • Rising JGB yields triggered repatriation flows, pressuring U.S. yields and draining global liquidity • Forced unwinds led investors to sell U.S. tech and crypto to repay yen loans, amplifying the risk-off cascade Bottom line: All four shocks drained liquidity from the same corner of the market, high-beta, leveraged assets, driving a violent unwind in growth tech and crypto and raising the risk of further forced selling. Excessive leverage, fragile balance sheets, and concentration risk determined which assets crashed the hardest. The beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle by the Fed is an "inflection point" as investors need to determine whether the easing is a preventative measure or a reaction to a more serious downturn. However one thing is for certain: The macro shock reset valuations, but it didn’t change the fundamentals of businesses from $NBIS to $META.
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对比IREN与NBIS短期容量优势及长期利润率，并提及GLXY会计处理。
简单定性回复：$IREN 确实前置了连接容量(Connected Capacity)，若从该角度（例如 2026 年上半年 1+ GW）对比 $NBIS 2026 年下半年的 1 GW，$IREN 胜出，且应利用这段时间签署更多合同。长期来看，Nebius 在两者间实现容量持平，且凭借全栈(Full-Stack)而非纯 IaaS 拥有更高利润率，这在 $MSFT 合同的每兆瓦营收中已有所体现。我记得曾对电力成本与利润率做过定量拆解，发现在 Oracle TI 事件中，利用率/编排(Utilization/Orchestration)比廉价电力更重要。关于 $NBIS 的趣闻：他们在 NJ 300 MW 设施的新绿地(Greenfield)站点与 Dataone 合作采用新的表后(Behind the Meter)方案，但短期可能落后于 $IREN。我不是能源专家，所以不个人预测天然气管道改造估算，仅采用管理层对连接/签约容量的预测。关于 $GLXY，同意加密货币会计处理的观点。这在加权时并非考量因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
So just a quick qualitative reply, $IREN does frontload connected capacity and if you go from that standpoint (eg. 1+ GW H1 2026) vs. 1 GW from $NBIS H2 2026, $IREN wins and should be using that time to sign more contracts. Longer term, Nebius achieves capacity parity between the two and has higher margins from full-stack vs. pure iaas and you saw this from the revenue per mw from the $MSFT contract. I remember doing a quantitative breakdown on power costs with margins and found that utilization/orchestration mattered vs. cheap power during that Oracle TI fiasco. Fun fact about $NBIS, they have new behind the meter approaches with dataone on their greenfield sites with power generation on their 300 MW facility in NJ., but probably lags near term to $IREN. I'm not an energy expert so I won't personally go into projections regarding natural gas pipelines conversion estimates, so just going with connected/contracted capacity projections from management. For $GLXY agreed about the crypto accounting. That wasn't a factor when doing weighting.
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询问用户关于NBIS持仓成本价的问题。
@DanielTan64198 $NBIS 的成本价是 119 美元吗？ https://t.co/N9VVLPheIm
原推 ↗英文原文
@DanielTan64198 $119 cost basis on $NBIS? https://t.co/N9VVLPheIm
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Coreweave全栈虽强但现金流紧张且依赖OpenAI，风险巨大。
同意。但关于 @_melonBird 引用的 SemiAnalysis 对 $CRWV 的排名，我认同该表格。Coreweave 和 $NBIS 是整个 Neocloud 领域中唯二在“全栈”方面做得扎实的。Coreweave 花了多年时间和数十亿美元进行收购，以完善软件。然而，当你查看公司财务报表时，该表格毫无意义。Coreweave 仅剩 19 亿美元现金等价物，且每年面临 12 亿美元以上的债务利息。在信贷收紧期间，他们还需要为其他超大规模云厂商合同的建设筹集更多资金（而像 $NBIS 这样规模小得多的玩家却有 49 亿美元以上用于资本支出）。此外，其 1/3（220 亿美元以上）的积压订单来自 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 尚未获得履行该 1 万亿美元以上承诺的资金，$CRWV / $ORCL 正在为他们建设产能，这构成了巨大风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed. But to @_melonBird with the SemiAnalysis ranking on $CRWV, I agree with that table. Coreweave and $NBIS are the two with full-stack nailed down in the whole Neocloud sector. Coreweave spent many years and billions of USD on acquisitions to get software right. However, that table doesn't mean anything when you look at company financials. Coreweave only has $1.9B cash equivalent left and faces $1.2B+ a year from debt interest. And they'd need to raise more for buildout for their other hyperscaler contracts during a period of credit tightening (when much smaller players like $NBIS has $4.9B+ to spend on capex) On top, 1/3 ($22B+) of their backlog comes from OpenAi which has no funding for that $1T+ promised yet, and $CRWV / $ORCL is building out capacity for them, which presents a massive risk.
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澄清对BITF、SLNH等股评级，讨论NBIS产能及SMCI、DGXX风险。
所以我认为你是在回复我从未提出的观点。澄清一下：我没有对 $BITF 进行评级。如果你读了我的帖子，它属于未评级类别，所以我不会辩论它与 $WYFI 或 $SLNH 相比的位置。 至于 $SLNH，我们在任何观点上都没有分歧，我也将其列为 F 级，因为它是一只炒作股，其“2.8GW 产能”建设计划需要过度的债务/稀释。 你说关于 $NBIS “它与比特币挖矿的关联程度以及他们是否拥有电力”——我会把这当作口误，认为你是在用比特币挖矿指代 $CLSK，而你指的是 $NBIS 的产能。 $NBIS 在产能方面实现了与 $IREN 的近乎长期平价，后者被认为是行业中 GW 产能最高的玩家。所以我认为那部分是不正确的。 至于关于 $SMCI 作为可靠/值得信赖的合作伙伴的论点，我某种程度上不同意，但你确实改变了我的想法，认为 $DGXX 具有更低的运营和技术执行风险。 除此之外，那部分并不会真正改变排名，例如将其与 $APLD 并列，后者有 2 个超大规模云厂商合同（如果包括 $CRWV），但存在垃圾债券（收入可见性）的下行风险。 如果你想仅因市值带来的回报潜力而将其与 $CLSK 并列，我会同意。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I think you're replying to points I never made. Just to clarify: I didn't rate $BITF. If you read my post, it fell into the unrated category, so I'm not debating where it goes in comparison with $WYFI or $SLNH. As for $SLNH, we're not disagreeing on anything I put it as F tier as well since it's a hype stock that requires excessive debt/dilution on their "2.8GW capacity" buildout plans. You said for $NBIS "how attached it is to Bitcoin Mining and if they own their power" - I'll take that as a mispeak and that you were using Bitcoin mining in reference with $CLSK, and that you were referencing capacity for $NBIS +. $NBIS achieved near long-term parity with $IREN from the capacity side, which is associated as the highest GW capacity player in the industry. So I'd argue that part is incorrect. So as for $SMCI being a reliable/trustworthy partner argument, I sort of disagree, but you did change my mind regarding $DGXX having lower operational and technical execution risk. That aside, that part wouldn't really change rankings, eg. putting it the same as $APLD which has 2 hyperscaler contracts (if you include $CRWV) but downside from junk bonds (revenue visibility) If you wanted to put it on par with $CLSK just due to return potential from MC size, I'd give you that.
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分析NBIS融资优势及高利润率，认为其抗风险能力强于同行。
当然，我从产能融资的角度将 $NBIS 列为 S 级，因为它不受影响其他数据中心（DC）股票（如被迫发行垃圾债的 $APLD）的信贷紧缩影响。 从第三季度财报来看，$CRWV 面临 12.1 亿至 12.5 亿美元的利息支出，而现金等价物仅为 19.4 亿美元。 其他新云（neocloud）板块股票需要更多现金来资助建设并实现吉瓦（GW）产能变现，例如 $IREN，且将面临更高的利率或缺乏融资兴趣（如可转换债券）。 这大概就是板块抛售的原因，但部分抛售相对不合理（例如 $NBIS、$CIFR）。 对于 $NBIS，你可能关注的是其 25 亿美元的自动取款机（ATM）增发。凭借现有的 48 亿美元以上现金，他们足以支持全栈建设和产能变现，并可根据与 $META、$MSFT 的可见收入合同扩展未来产能。 但我个人对其 ATM 增发并不满意，因为这会增加成本影响股价，并抵消 11 月 24 日纳入 MSCI 指数带来的资金流入。 但 $NBIS 拥有 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入（ARR），拥有行业最高利润率，鉴于其 200 亿美元市值，这足以抵消 10% 的稀释和可转换债券的影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, I put $NBIS as S tier from that capacity funding angle because it's isolated from credit tightening affecting other DC stocks like $APLD (that had to sell junk bonds). From Q3 earnings, $CRWV is facing $1.21-$1.25B in interest expenses and only has $1.94 billion in cash equivalents. Other neocloud sector stocks will need more to cash fund buildout + monetize GW capacity ike $IREN, and will face higher interest rates or lack of funding interest (eg. convertibles). This is kind of why we're seeing a sector selloff, but some were relatively undeserved (eg. $NBIS, $CIFR). With $NBIS you're probably looking at their $2.5B ATM offering. With their existing $4.8B+ in cash, they have enough for their full-stack buildout and capacity monetization + and can scale future capacity from visible revenue contracts with $META, $MSFT. But I'm personally not happy with their ATM, since it's an overhead affecting stock price + balances out inflows from MSCI inclusion in 2 days Nov 24th. But $NBIS with $7-9B ARR has the highest margins in the industry, which would offset 10% dilution and convertibles given their $20B marketcap.
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Coreweave因高债务和OpenAI依赖被评F级，NBIS更优。
如果你花30秒读一下帖子，就会发现我并没有给 $BITF 评级。 关于 $CRWV，短期有上涨空间，因为抛售至60美元区间确实过度了。但中长期的债务利息负担过重。 相比之下，$NBIS 和 $IREN 通过可转换债券融资或低利息，每季度对利润率的侵蚀很小；而 Coreweave 每年支付的债务利息超过12亿美元。 此外，OpenAI 占其总积压订单的三分之一。虽然他们拥有一些有防御性的大型超大规模客户（$META, $MSFT）以及 $NVDA 的背书，但像 $ORCL 那样为 OpenAI 建设基础设施，鉴于其缺乏收入以及 Gemini ($GOOGL) 的竞争，存在相当大的风险。 因此，尽管 Coreweave 是备受好评的全栈式服务供应商，但由于荒谬的债务利息侵蚀利润率，加上积压订单高度集中于 OpenAI（合同不确定性），其评级为 F 级，而这并不影响像 $NBIS 这样多元化的全栈式服务供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF. With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest. While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest. OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition. So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.
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基于财报与宏观因素，发布Neocloud板块个股梯队排名及评估框架。
Neocloud（新云）板块梯队排名。 Q3财报后+市场板块回调： [S] 级：$NBIS [A] 级：$CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] 级：$GLXY, $CORZ [C] 级：$APLD, $CLSK [D] 级：$WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] 级：$CRWV*, $SLNH [U] 级：$GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** 从左到右依次排名。 *：短期价格下跌创造了诱人的入场点（例如 $CRWV），但中期（12个月）吸引力仍然有限。 **：不确定，决定不评级（但在梯队图中列为F级）。一些纯矿企尚未完全转型为HPC（高性能计算）+ 合同不确定性太大。 很多人询问财报后的更新，这些只是基于以下加权评估的个人想法： a. 合同可见性和收入确定性 b. 对宏观收紧和信贷条件的韧性 c. 资产负债表强度和利润率概况 d. HPC建设风险（产能执行和编排） e. 收入增长轨迹（1-2年视野） f. 当前市值相对于收入增长和基础设施价值的比率 整个Neocloud板块都很有吸引力，但截至Q3，某些公司的非对称回报显然高于其他公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Neocloud Sector Tierlist. Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop: [S] Tier: $NBIS [A] Tier: $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ [C] Tier: $APLD, $CLSK [D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH [U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** Ranked in order from left to right. * : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited. **: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty. Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of: a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration) e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon) f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.
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博主调侃在NBIS上因恐慌操作而亏损，自嘲得到反向祝福。
@foogleman1234 别担心，我们在 $NBIS 上省下了钱。我刚才有点恐慌，但我们得到了反向的 @jimcramer 的“祝福”。https://t.co/99NoI9EDfc
原推 ↗英文原文
@foogleman1234 Don't worry, we've saved on $NBIS. I was panicking for a bit but we got the blessing from the inverse @jimcramer. https://t.co/99NoI9EDfc
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期权到期引发波动，短期看算法，中长期看基本面。
明天有很多期权到期（如果你看 $NBIS 到 $META 等）。未平仓合约链(open interest chains)将被清洗。我想说从周一开始到1-2月，或者12月初会有复苏，但由于这是由算法驱动的，基本面没有太多实质性内容，不确定伟大的算法之神(algo gods)短期内会怎么做。中长期基本面更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
lot of option expiration tomorrow (if you look at $NBIS to $META, etc). and open interest chains will get flushed. I want to say starting Monday into Jan-Feb, or maybe recovery in early December but since it's algorithmic driven with nothing too material to fundamentals, not sure what the great algo gods will do short term. Medium-long term fundamentals matter more.
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NBIS 遭算法抛售大跌，作者认为基本面未变，跌幅不合理。
是的，全市场的反转让我措手不及。$NBIS 毫无理由地从 103 美元跌至 84 美元。Citadel 的 Rubner 表示，尽管 $NVDA 财报大幅超预期，但这纯粹是为了“去风险”目的的算法抛售。恰好明天有大量未平仓合约到期。撇开期权流向不谈，我认为因 25 个基点（bps）就出现 40% 的抛售是不合理的。“担心 AI 泡沫”或 25 个基点并不会如此根本性地改变基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah market wide reversal caught me by surprise. $NBIS ended up dropping from $103 to $84 for little reason. Rubner from Citadel was saying it was a purely algorithmic selloff despite $NVDA massive earnings beat for "derisking" purposes. Just so happens tons and tons of open interest expiring tomorrow. Option flow aside, don't think a 40% selloff is warranted for 25bps. "Fearing an AI bubble" or 25 BPS doesn't change fundamentals that instrumentally.
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澄清NBIS与IREN容量对比逻辑，反驳“文字混乱”论，强调前置容量价值。
重新阅读关于 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的表格及要点可能会有所帮助，而不是跳过并因为觉得这是“混乱的文字沙拉”就否定定量分析。 本着善意，为了帮助你理解：表格有三行。 - 当前已连接容量 - 2026年指导/预期已连接容量 - 指导签约容量。 这是关于将已获电力转化为运营数据中心容量（截至2026年底）或各公司签约容量指导的“苹果对苹果”（同等条件）比较。这与财报中的毛利率正常化不同。 因此，$IREN 1.4 GW 与 $NBIS 1 GW 的比较，或指导签约容量的比较，是各公司截至2026年底预期指导的同等条件比较。 3 GW 与 2.5 GW 的比较是指导数据，且是正确的。唯一的语义细微差别在于“已获、并网组合”与“预期签约扩张目标”（我之前用括号注明了前者），如果我想更清楚，本应再加一行。然而，你的说法并不能否定两种指导容量的比较。 $IREN 多头应该争论的细微差别是前置容量的价值（例如 $IREN 上半年 1.4 GW 对比 $NBIS 下半年）。不要说因为内容太长无法阅读 -> 所以无法比较。
原推 ↗英文原文
Might be helpful to read the table and the points again on $NBIS and $IREN rather than skipping it and dismissing something quantitative because you think it's "convoluted word salad". So coming in with good faith, just to help you understand: there's three rows. - current connected capacity - guided/expected connected capacity 2026 - guided contracted capacity. This is an apples to apples comparison regarding converting secured power into operational data center capacity by the end of 2026 or guidance for contracted capacity for each company. This is not the same as gross margin normalization on earnings reports. So, the comparison of $IREN 1.4 GW vs $NBIS 1 GW, or guided contracted capacity is an apples-to-apples comparison of each company's expected guidance by the end of 2026. The comparison of 3 GW to 2.5 GW was guidance and is correct. The only semantic nuance is "secured, grid-connected portfolio" vs. "expected contracted expansion target" which I put the earlier in parenthesis, and if I wanted to be extra clear, I should added another row. However, what you're saying doesn't dismiss the comparison of both guided capacities. The nuance $IREN bulls you should be arguing is the value of frontloading capacity (eg. $IREN 1.4 GW H1 vs H2 $NBIS). Not saying that something is too long to read -> you can't compare.
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因执行风险及融资压力降级$IREN，维持$NBIS跑赢大盘评级。
我的措辞非常严谨。你在阅读关于“引导性签约容量”的讨论时，跳过了“预期”一词。 因此，我再次重申上述观点，但提供更详细的解释： $IREN 最初的护城河是吉瓦(GW)级容量+垂直整合。$NBIS 的护城河是全栈(Full-stack)。 然而，Nebius 在长期吉瓦级容量上实现了与原本被认为是 $IREN 最大护城河的平价。 以下是有帮助的解释： - 短期：$IREN 0.66 GW 已连接 vs. $NBIS 22 GW 已连接。目前，$IREN 拥有更多前置容量。 - 中期：$NBIS 和 $IREN 之间的已连接电力差距正在缩小，$IREN 2026年为 1 GW，Nebius 为 1.4 GW。 - 长期：$IREN 规划 3 GW 电力扩张，$NBIS 规划 2.5 GW 签约电力扩张，Nebius 在已连接电力方面实现长期平价。 Nebius 管理层还将容量预期提高了 150%，并且有很大可能再次增加，以超越其他新云(Neocloud)公司。 此外，$IREN 最终转向全栈 IAAS 而非风险较低的托管(Colo)($CIFR, $WULF)，以追求更高的收入和利润率潜力，正如他们的 ER 所述。 但考虑到 $CRWV + $ORCL 在软件/编排方面的建设难度，与拥有现成且即插即用现有堆栈的 $NBIS 相比，$IREN 的新转型执行风险极高。 如果 $IREN 能做好这一点，其上行潜力巨大，但由于执行风险以及为 AI 云转型的容量变现所需融资面临的信贷收紧，我已将其降级。 如上所述，Nebius 拥有更大且多元化的客户群，这增强了收入可见性和防御性，因此我维持对 $NBIS 的跑赢大盘评级，因其具有非对称上行潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm very precise with my wording. You skipped over "expected" while reading discussions about guided contracted capacity. So reiterating what I've said above but with a longer explanation: $IREN's original moat was GW capacity + vertical integration. $NBIS's moat was full-stack. However, Nebius achieved long-term parity with GW capacity that was originally thought to be $IREN's biggest moat. Here's a helpful explanation: - Near term $IREN .66 GW connected vs. 22 GW connected with $NBIS. Today, $IREN has more frontloaded capacity. - Mid-term, The connected power argument is closing between $NBIS and $IREN with 1 GW 2026 for IREN and 1.4 GW for Nebius. - Long term, $IREN projects 3 GW power expansion, $NBIS projects 2.5 GW contracted power expansion with Nebius achieving longer term parity with connected power. Nebius management also raised capacity expectations by 150%, and there's a large chance it increases again to exceed other Neocloud companies. On top of that $IREN ended up pivoting to full-stack IAAS instead of lower-risk colo ( $CIFR, $WULF ) for higher revenue potential due to "higher revenue and margin potential" as per their ER. But looking at $CRWV + $ORCL buildout difficulty with software/orchestration, this immensely raises execution risk for a new pivot with $IREN compared to $NBIS, which has it down + plug and play with existing stack. $IREN has high upside potential if they get this right, but due to execution risk and credit tightening required for future financing for capacity monetization for their AI cloud pivot, I've downgraded it. Nebius also has a much larger diversified client base as mentioned above for both revenue visibility + defensibility, which is why I maintain outperform on $NBIS due to asymmetrical upside.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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不建议做空$NBIS看涨期权，MSCI流入及机构吸筹预示反弹。
同意，在股价下跌35%且财报大爆后，虽然期权已接近价内(ITM)，但此时做空$NBIS的看涨期权(CC)并非明智之举。 即将迎来众多催化剂，例如4天内MSCI指数将带来数亿至十亿美元级别的资金流入。相对于市值/流通盘而言，这一规模极大。 此外，AI板块的涨势在12月前依然完好，且过去两周做市商的对冲操作带来了机械性的向上资金流。既然散户已投降触底，且机构据实时指标已积累约50%的流通盘（尽管官方13F文件显示为44-46%），随着70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)预期的基本面匹配，可能会迎来一波有趣的上涨行情。
原推 ↗英文原文
agreed, not a good idea to write $NBIS CC's though so close to ITM on a 35% drop + blowout earnings. There's too many catalysts coming up like few hundred - low billion inflow from MSCI in 4 days. This is extremely large relative to marketcap/float. Then we have AI rally in-tact in time for December and mechanical flows upward from all the dealer hedging downward the past two weeks. Now that we've hit the bottom with retail capitulation and institution managed to accumulate ~50% of the float (according to some live metrics) was ~44-46% from official 13F filings though, might be a fun rally upward to match fundamentals from $7-9B ARR projections.
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NVDA财报暗示需求加速，利好CIFR等供应链个股。
@soulbiri1 是的，像 $CIFR 这样的股票盘后上涨了 17%。 这并不意味着开盘后价格能守住，但市场有时只需要一个借口来反弹。 从 $NBIS 到 $CIFR 的基本面依然完好，但 $NVDA 的财报只是指向需求加速。 https://t.co/oZqWb7jrL7
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah stuff like $CIFR is up 17% after hours. Doesn’t mean the price will hold market open, but market just needs an excuse for things to rally sometimes. Fundamentals are already in-tact for $NBIS to $CIFR but $NVDA earnings just point toward accelerated demand. https://t.co/oZqWb7jrL7
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Nebius股价严重低估，若市场认可2026年指引，现价应超140美元。
首先，它在94美元的价格下被极度低估。除非第一季度出现大量数据中心烧毁的情况，否则当前的股价才显得合理。 然而，若要符合我400美元的目标价，$NBIS 需要严格执行当前的指引，例如向2.5 GW产能迈进，实现1 GW产能并网，以及达成营收预测。 我们预计 $NBIS 在2026年第四季度的单季营收将达到21亿美元，这种增长简直令人难以置信。 市场已经计入了远期增长，但关键在于它计入了多远的未来。 对于Nebius而言，市场就像蒙着双眼。如果市场认真对待2026年的预测，股价现在轻松就能交易在140美元以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
For starters it's incredibly undervalued at $94. Q1 would need to have many DCs burn down for it to justify current prices. However, for it to be in line with my $400 PT, $NBIS needs to be executing current guidance eg.moving toward 2.5 GW capacity, 1GW capacity connected, revenue projections. We're expecting $2.1B/quarter 2026 Q4 for $NBIS which is absolutely mindblowing growth. Market prices in forward growth, but it's more of how long in the future it prices in. For Nebius, it's like it's wearing blindfolds. Stock should be easily trading $140+ right now if markets take 2026 projections seriously.
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个股基本面优于宏观，NBIS强劲基本面使回调成买入良机。
因为个股基本面比宏观更重要。 $ETH、$SOL 等加密市场是另一回事，存在连锁的50倍杠杆保证金清算，但股票有自由现金流(FCF)/盈利支撑市值。 以 $NBIS 为例，当预期年度经常性收入(ARR)从20亿美元增至80亿美元，拥有来自 $META 和 $MSFT 的220亿美元+合同积压，且EBIT利润率达20-30%时，25个基点的降息并不会导致股价下跌30%。 如果盈利开始不及预期+预期收入/利润率开始下降，那么人们开始抛售是合理的。然而，当我们看到全面增长时，抛售就成了买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Because individual stock fundamentals matter more than macro. $ETH, $SOL crypto markets are a whole different beast with cascading 50x leverage margin liquidations, but with stocks you have FCF/earnings backing up the market cap. With $NBIS for example, when you go from projected $2B ARR to $8B ARR, 20-30% EBIT margins backed by a $22B+ contract backlog from $META and $MSFT, 25BPS rate cut doesn't affect the stock price by -30%. If earnings started to miss + projected revenue/margins started to decrease, then people would be warranted to start selling. However, when we're seeing increasing growth across the board, the sell-off becomes a buying opportunity.
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鲍威尔讲话料重申NBIS优于IREN，建议关注个股基本面而非宏观大盘。
杰罗姆（鲍威尔）大概会上台，宣称 $NBIS > $IREN，然后在他走向由悉尼·斯威尼（Sydney Sweeney）坐在副驾的新兰博基尼时潇洒离场（mic drop）。 市场会鼓掌欢呼，因为他说的不过是众所周知的事实。 但除此之外，我们可能会获得更多关于12月降息以及政府停摆后经济前景的见解。大盘随后的走势可谓五五开，因此除非你交易短期指数或更依赖宏观的资产，否则关注个股基本面更为重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jerome will probably go on stage, say $NBIS > $IREN, and micdrop after walking offstage to his new lambo that Sydney Sweeney is riding shotgun in. Markets will clap and cheer knowing he said something everyone knows as a fact. But that aside, we’ll probably get more insights into Dec rate cut and a view of the economy after gov blackout. It’s a coin flip direction the general markets go after, so more important to look at individual stock fundamentals unless you trade short term indexes or more macro dependent assets
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作者称市场大跌为“大重置”，多只AI概念股股价回落至重大利好前水平。
我将这次市场下跌称为“大重置(The great reset)”。 许多股票的价格已重置至其基本面发生变化之前的水平。 $HIMS 回到 Zava 事件前的 $36。 $NBIS 回到微软(MSFT)交易前的 $94。 $CIFR 和 $WULF 回到 AWS/谷歌交易前的价格。 $SNAP 回到与 Perplexity 交易前的价格。 股市的“黑色星期五”提前到来了。
原推 ↗英文原文
The great reset is how I termed the market drop. Lot of names were reset to prices before their fundamentals changes $HIMS back to pre-Zava prices at $36. $NBIS back to pre-MSFT deal prices at $94. $CIFR $WULF back to pre-aws/googl deals $SNAP pre-perplexity deal. Early Black Friday for stocks
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解析高波动股因机械对冲导致的剧烈震荡及反转机制。
Nebius [$NBIS] 在一个月内经历了从 $140 -> $94 -> $130 -> $83 的剧烈波动。对于波动性股票，如果一周内能下跌 25%，那么一周内反弹 33% 也是可能的。机械对冲（Mechanical hedging）会导致股价剧烈下跌，但当风向转变时，反向情况同样会发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] went from $140 -> $94 -> $130 -> $83 in the span of 1 month. With volatile stocks, if something can drop 25% in a week, it can also back up 33% in a week. Mechanical hedging brings a stock down violently, but when the switch flips, the same happens in reverse. https://t.co/YmzL7OqeWw
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博主回顾过往交易盈亏，并列出近期市场下跌中的买入标的。
感谢在 $RDDT 上关注我！想到自己曾从温迪（Wendy's）快餐店垃圾桶旁起步，深感荣幸与谦卑。 许多卖出操作如 $CRCL、$BMNR、$RGTI 最终都兑现了收益。随着市场下跌，大量买入机会如 $NBIS、$SNAP、$META、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 目前出现。 我需要跟进许多标的，本周我会再发一篇类似帖子。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for following me on $RDDT! Very humbled by my regarded roots behind the Wendys dumpsters. Lot of the sells like $CRCL, $BMNR, $RGTI finally played out. Tons of buys like $NBIS, $SNAP, $META, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM right now from the market drop. I need to catchup on a lot of names and I'll make another post like that this week.
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NBIS超卖待反弹，MSCI资金流入对220亿市值影响巨大。
@rioferdy838 @hereforgoodish2 $NBIS 显然超卖且即将迎来剧烈反弹，但也许是在提前博弈11月24日的 MSCI 指数资金流入，叠加的流入量从数亿到数十亿美元不等。鉴于 Nebius 的市值仅为 220 亿美元，这种规模的资金流入会产生巨大的实质性影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rioferdy838 @hereforgoodish2 $NBIS is obviously oversold and due for a violent rebound but maybe frontrunning for Nov 24th MSCI index inflow on top which is a few hundred million to low billions inflow. That much makes a huge material difference when Nebius is only a $22B marketcap.
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建议趁市场广泛抛售，买入基本面增长的股票。
@hereforgoodish2 现在有太多优质的买入机会了。买入 $META、$NBIS、$SNAP、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 都不会出错。 我肯定还漏掉了一些，但这次抛售范围很广，所以这是买入基本面正在增长的股票的好时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
@hereforgoodish2 There's too many good buys right now. Can't go wrong with $META, $NBIS, $SNAP, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM. I'm sure there's more I missed out but the selloff was broad so it's a good chance to buy into stocks with growing fundamentals.
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对比NBIS全栈优势与CIFR低风险低上限，看好两者但首选NBIS。
感谢 @accounting_ds 总结我的观点。明天我会发布更深入的全面分析。 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 是我在 Neoclouder（新型云服务商）板块中最看好的两只股票。不过 CIFR 的地位略低于 Nebius。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-cloud（人工智能云）价值链，具备更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使它们承担编排、软件以及 GPU lifecycle（GPU 生命周期）风险，而非仅局限于 colocation（托管服务）。 我看好 $CIFR 是因为它规避了上述所有风险敞口，并拥有 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它还免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 就 CIFR 的经济模型而言，我们得到的是基于为 hyperscalers（超大规模云厂商）提供空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金式结构。经风险调整后，它是该组别中最安全的标的之一。但权衡之下，其上行空间有限。 10年、15年的长期租约减缓了收入增长步伐，并削弱了相对于 NBIS 等全栈 Neocloud 运营商的回报，后者能在一年内将季度收入从 1.45 亿美元提升至 21 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate, @accounting_ds for summarizing my opinion. I'll post a deeper dive into everything tomorrow. $NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. CIFR sits right below Nebius though. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year.
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TSM盈利是AI核心指标，超大规模云厂商建设不受NVDA财报影响。
我的观点是，$TSM 的未来盈利（forward earnings）是迄今为止人工智能交易（AI trade）最大的指标，因为它涵盖了从 $GOOGL TPU 生产到 $AMZN，以及 $NVDA、$AMD 等所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers），且我们已看到其盈利和利润率大幅超出预期。 即使 $NVDA 的未来营收被大幅下调（我对此表示怀疑），也不会使 $MSFT 到 $IREN、$AMZN 到 $CIFR 等公司已签订的多年度算力（compute）积压订单失效。 我们已看到 Anthropic 与 $MSFT Azure 的算力协议（这将惠及 $NBIS、$IREN 和 $CRWV 等），$GOOGL 近日建设超 400 亿美元的数据中心（此前已与 $WULF、$CIFR/FluidStack 签署托管设施（colo）协议），$NVDA 的财报不会改变超大规模云服务商的建设步伐。 但它确实对整个 AI 交易产生重大影响，并直接影响 $NVDA GPU 板块（例如重度依赖 $NVDA 的 AI 云厂商）。
原推 ↗英文原文
My opinion is that $TSM forward earnings was the biggest indicator of the AI trade so far since they span from all hyperscalers such as $GOOGL TPU prod to $AMZN, as well as $NVDA, $AMD, and we've already seen them blow away earnings + margins. Even if $NVDA forward revenue is quoted heavily downward (which I doubt), it won't invalidate multi-year contracted compute backlog from $MSFT to companies like $IREN or $AMZN to $CIFR made already. We're already seeing Anthropic x $MSFT compute deals with Azure today (which flows down to $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV others), $GOOGL build out a $40B+ datacenter the other day (they've made colo deals with $WULF, $CIFR / fluidstack previously), and $NVDA earnings won't the change the hyperscaler buildout. But it does have a large impact on the overall AI trade as well + directly affect $NVDA GPU parts of the sector (eg. $NVDA heavy AI clouds).
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建议无视短期噪音持有AI股，等待剧烈反弹。
🎯. 我们以前见过类似的情况，比如 $NBIS 从 $140 跌至 $94，然后在两周内暴力反弹至 $130。这次似乎更广泛且回撤时间更长，大多数高贝塔股票从 $SMCI 到 $RDDT 都在下跌，其中 AI 板块集中度最高。正如你所说，任何反弹可能都会很剧烈，因此最好在这些波动时期持有，以免错过 1-2 个最大的反弹日。显然，当前的市场下跌是多方面的，包括散户投降、保证金清算、宏观因素，以及对 GPU 过时/AI 交易信贷收紧的一些合理担忧。然而，最重要的是关注基本面而非短期噪音（目前恐惧与贪婪指数处于 9/100 的极度恐惧状态）。
原推 ↗英文原文
🎯. We've seen this before with stocks like $NBIS on the drop from $140 -> $94 and then the violent recovery to $130 all in the span of 2 weeks. This time it seems broader + longer drawdown with most high-beta stocks dropping from $SMCI to $RDDT with highest concentration of AI sector. As you mentioned, any recovery will likely be violent, which is why it's better to hold through these volatile times, than missing out 1-2 of the biggest recovery days. Obviously the current market drop multi-facted with retail capitulation, margin liquidation, macro, and some valid concerns over GPU deprecation/credit tightening of the AI trade added on top. However, the most important thing is to look at fundamentals over short term noise (with fear and greed being extreme fear right now at 9/100).
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成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
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澄清全栈基础设施定义，辨析IREN与NBIS等技术层级差异。
我觉得你可能把自己搞糊涂了，我只是想澄清一下术语。你在第一条评论中说 $ORCL 不是全栈(full stack)，因为他们做了数据中心租赁(DC leasing)，而 $IREN 是全栈。 现在你从 $ORCL 转移话题，开始谈论 $IREN。 我们只是在争论“全栈”服务提供的语义定义。如果你想论证 $IREN 不是全栈，而是做垂直整合的基础设施，那部分也是成立的。 我提到的 $IREN + 软件编排，是指调度、监控分配、故障恢复、集群配置(cluster prov)、容器运行时(container runtime)等，这些是为 $MSFT 提供算力所需的 GPU 编排。 集群编排 + 配置层 + 购买 GPU 而不仅仅是托管机房(colo)，我认为这就是你提到的全栈基础设施。 如果你想再深入一步，$NBIS $CRWV 做的是模型 API、推理运行时（平台/运行时层），比如 $NBIS 的代币工厂(token factory)，这是更深层次的全栈服务，所以 $IREN 确实不算全栈。 这只是在争论全栈之上叠加更多软件的语义问题。如果你接受这个论点，那么对于 $IREN 来说确实如此，且因公司而异。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think you might be confusing yourself and I'm just trying to clarify the terms. You were saying $ORCL is not full stack because they did DC leasing and $IREN is full stack in your first comment. Now you're shifting from $ORCL and talking about $IREN. And we're just going into semantic definition on full-stack offerings and if you wanted to argue $IREN is not full stack but does vertically integrated infrastructure, then that's partially valid too. With $IREN + software orchestration I was referring to scheduling, monitoring allocation, fault recoveriy, cluster prov, container rutime, etc for GPU orchestation needed to deliver compute to $MSFT. Cluster orchestration +provisioning layer + buying GPUs rather than just colo I'd argue is full-stack infrastructure as you mentioned. If you wanted to go one-step deeper that $NBIS $CRWV does it's model APis, inference runetimes, (platform/runtime layer) like $NBIS token factory which is a deeper full-stack offering, so $IREN is not full-stack sure. This is just arguing semantics of more software on top of full-stack and if you go with that argument, sure with $IREN and it differs company-to-company.
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澄清NBIS与CRWV利润率差异，指出NBIS处于更优位置。
再次强调，情况非常微妙，我只是想指出你可能混淆或误解的地方。 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 拥有最高的标准化利润率(normalized margins)，但 $CRWV 之所以亏损，是因为其巨额债务利息。 如果从公式中剔除这一因素，并保持较高的利用率(utilization) + 改善导致利润率计算的复杂公式中的其他部分，那么 $NBIS 就处于那个“甜蜜点(sweet spot)”，这就是我试图表达的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again it’s very nuanced and I’m just trying to point out what you might be conflating or misunderstanding. $NBIS and $CRWV have the highest normalized margins but the reason why $CRWV is unprofitable is because of their large debt interest. If you remove that from the equation and maintain higher utilization + improve other parts of the multifaceted equation that leads to margin calculations, then that’s where $NBIS sits in that sweet spot was the point I’m making.
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澄清AI算力租赁中软件编排对利润率及自由现金流的关键作用。
将全栈定义为GPU之上的软件层是正确的，因此$ORCL符合这一标准。你之前混淆了垂直整合和全栈服务，这是两个截然不同的概念。 这是一个非常细微的差别，在讨论$NBIS和$CRWV时，你混淆了“纯GPU租赁”与包含编排能力的收入/利润率。 让我再次澄清： 对于$NBIS和$CRWV，人们说其收入来自纯GPU租赁是一种过度简化。以$NBIS为例，它包含一个优化GPU利用率和整体效率的管理软件栈，这就是为什么他们相比$IREN在与$MSFT的交易中获得了更好的价格/兆瓦(MW)优势。这不仅仅是任何人都能做的纯GPU租赁。 再次强调，$CRWV表示软件是其护城河，正是软件将$NBIS和$CRWV的利润率与$ORCL等市场其余部分区分开来（后者毛利率极低，例如14%）。 你可以通过购买GPU并出租来获得极高的营收数字，但如果不能转化为自由现金流(FCF)和利润，那就毫无意义。而这正是通过增加内部运营支出(opex)进行软件编排发挥作用的地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's a correct with full-stack as software as a layer on top of GPUs, so $ORCL would fit that mark. Earlier you were conflating vertically integrated and full-stack offering, which are two distinct terms. This is a very nuanced, with $NBIS, $CRWV you're confusing you're confusing "straight GPU leases" and revenue/margins + orchestration. Let me clarify again: For $NBIS, $CRWV, it's a oversimplification when people say it comes from straight GPU leases. When you use $NBIS for example, it includes a managed sfotware stack that optimizes GPU utilization and overall efficiency, which is why they got a better deal/MW compared to $IREN with $MSFT. It's not just straight GPU leases that anyone can do. Again $CRWV said software was their moat, it's what differentiates margins between $NBIS | $CRWV, and the rest of the market like $ORCL (which had incredibly low gross margins, eg. 14%). You can have the extremely high revenue numbers just by buying GPUs and leasing them out, but if it doesn't convert to FCF, profit, it doesn't mean anything. And that's where increasing internal opex with software orchestration comes in.
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澄清AI云全栈与裸金属区别，指出$IREN因执行风险派发股息。
我觉得你有点混淆了这些术语，让我澄清一下。 全栈服务(Full stack offering) = AI云 $NBIS $IREN $CRWV 裸金属(Bare Metal) = $CIFR, $WULF 类型的服务（AWS将自家GPU接入 $CIFR） $IREN 在决定为 $MSFT 交易购买数十亿美元GPU时，转向提供全栈AI云服务。这导致了因执行风险而产生的特别股息(DG)。 $IREN 在财报电话会上明确表示，他们之所以做全栈（包括GPU采购+软件编排），是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”。 关于你提到的软件编排，它主要用于改善内部运营支出(opex)和利润率，但在面向客户的差异化方面略有优势。 与电力相比，GPU利用率和编排对最终利润率的影响巨大，我在之前的帖子中做过定量分析。 对于为 $NBIS 等支付裸金属服务的客户，他们购买的不仅是原始硬件，而是经过优化的软硬件堆栈。
原推 ↗英文原文
So think you're confusing the terms a bit, let me clarify. Full stack offering = AI Cloud $NBIS $IREN $CRWV Bare Metal = $CIFR, $WULF type offerings (AWS plugs in their own GPUs into $CIFR) $IREN is pivoted to doing a full stack offering AI cloud when they decided to buy billions in GPU for the $MSFT deal. This is what led to the DG due to execution risk. $IREN on their earnings call said it themselves that they did full-stack (including GPU purchases + software orchestration) due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns" For software orchestration that you mentioned, it's mainly for improving internal opex and margins, but is a slight advantage for customer facing differentiators. GPU utilization and orchestration plays an incredible difference in terms of final margins, when comparing to power and I did a quantitative breakdown in an earlier post. For customers that pay for bare metal for $NBIS and others, they are paying for an optimized hardware and software stack, not just raw hardware.
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因全栈执行风险高且难超巨头，作者做空IREN。
我不会将全栈(Full-stack)和垂直整合(Vertically integrated)混为一谈，我在谈论 $ORCL 时措辞非常精确。 $NBIS 采用混合模式以扩大利润率。 $IREN 的主要问题在于他们正在做全栈业务，其中软件编排(Software orchestration)是一个令人难以置信且被误解的护城河，但这将执行风险放大了数个数量级。 如果你做对了，你将拥有行业内最高的利润率/收入。但 $CRWV 花了数年和数十亿美元通过收购才做对，其CEO在电话会议上表示软件是他们的护城河。 很难让市场相信，$IREN 作为一个全新转型进入高性能计算(HPC) AI 云的公司，其全栈能力会优于 $CRWV 花数年构建的能力，甚至优于市值5000多亿美元的 $ORCL 至今未能做到的程度。这就是导致我做空(DG) $IREN 的持续执行风险。 但当然，如果他们能精准做到（这很难），那么其回报潜力将极其巨大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't use full-stack and vertically integrated interchangeably, my wording is very precise when I talk about $ORCL. $NBIS does mixed to expand margins. The main issue with $IREN is that they're doing full-stack where software orchestration is an incredible and misunderstood moat and it increases execution risk by magnitudes. If you get it right you have the highest margins/revenue in the industry. But $CRWV spent years and billions in acquisitions to get it right and the CEO said on call that software was their moat. It's hard to convince the market that $IREN, which is doing a brand new pivot into HPC AI cloud, will have better full-stack that $CRWV spent years building and that $ORCL a $500B+ company failed ot do so far. This is the lingering execution risk that led me to DG $IREN. But of course if they get it spot-on (which is difficult), then it has incredibly high return potential.
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市场急跌时，$NBIS因隔离风险且基础稳固，具最大上行潜力。
感谢分享！在市场急跌、许多高贝塔（High Beta）成长资产下跌30%至50%之际，正是重新配置到基础稳固甚至得到强化的股票的时机。在AI数据中心领域，$NBIS 拥有最不对称的上行空间。尽管信用收缩或GPU执行风险影响了 $IREN 和 $CRWV 等新型云（Neo-cloud）企业，但 NBIS 相对隔离于这些担忧之外。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for sharing! 市場急落で多くの高ベータ成長資産が30〜50%下落している今、基礎が揺らがずむしろ強化された銘柄へ再配置する局面。AIデータセンター分野で最も非対称な上昇余地を持つのは $NBIS 。 信用収縮やGPU実行リスクで $IREN $CRWV などのネオクラウド企業が影響を受けた一方、NBIS はその懸念から相対的に隔離されている。
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Weebius逆势翻绿，但NBIS期权目标价在宏观环境下显得激进。
@Perugius__ Weebius 是少数几只翻绿的“高贝塔(high-beta)”股票之一。话虽如此，鉴于当前的宏观环境，$NBIS 180 美元的行权价略显激进。高贝塔股票的暴跌简直令人难以置信。https://t.co/M4c1lPPsNU
原推 ↗英文原文
@Perugius__ Weebius is one of the few high-beta stocks green. That being said $NBIS $180 strike is a bit ambitious given the current macro climate. The market crash on high-beta stocks is kind of insane. https://t.co/M4c1lPPsNU
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澄清 $NBIS 收入预测，强调其受超大规模云厂商驱动的惊人增长。
这里没人说过 $NBIS 在 2026 年会有 80 亿美元的实际收入(Realized Revenue)。不太明白你想表达或争论什么。 自财报发布以来，我一直坚持 80 亿美元的中位年化经常性收入(ARR) 观点，预计实际收入约为 36 亿至 42 亿美元，第四季度季度收入约为 21 亿美元。 $NBIS 正从 1.46 亿美元的季度收入增长至 21 亿美元，耗时略超 1 年，这种令人瞠目的增长仅在本十年因 $MSFT 和 $META 等超大规模云服务商(AI Hyperscalers) 的 AI 收入漏斗而实现。 这是十年一遇的机会，但你做的这种区分没有必要，因为我还没在评论区看到有人产生这种混淆。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nobody said here $NBIS would do $8B realized revenue in 2026. Not quite sure what you're trying to say or argue. I've been consistent on $8B midpoint ARR after earnings with likely ~$3.6B-4.2B realized revenue and ~$2.1B quarterly revenue Q4. $NBIS is ramping up from $146M quarterly revenue -> $2.1B in slightly over 1Y time, which is just mind-numbing growth and only achievable in this decade because of $MSFT $META hyperscaler revenue funnel from AI. Once in a decade opportunity, but the distinction you're making isn't necessary since I haven't seen anyone make that confusion in the comments yet.
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看好NBIS非对称收益，同时维持对CIFR等标的的多头观点。
@babyfolio 确实，$NBIS 在 Neocloud 领域的每一家公司中都具有明显的非对称上行潜力，我很乐意且能轻松解释原因。但这并不意味着我对 $CIFR、$WULF 等其他股票不看好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio True, $NBIS has clear asymmetrical upside over every other company in the Neocloud sector and I'm happy + easily can explain why. That doesn't mean I'm not bullish on $CIFR, $WULF, and others though.
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对比CIFR与NBIS，认为CIFR风险更低但上行空间有限。
$CIFR 实际上是我下一个最看好的新云(Neocloud)板块标的。 我之前做过一个梯队排名，$NBIS 是 S+ 级，$CIFR 是 S 级。 但这里有个细微差别，很多人可能不知道： Nebius 捕获了 AI 云业务的整个价值链。$IREN 在其财报电话会议中明确表示，他们之所以选择与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”，同时承担了编排、软件、折旧以及 GPU 采购，而非仅做数据中心(Colo)。 正如你所说，$CIFR 因为 AWS、$GOOGL 以及 Secure 而降低了风险，这也是我喜欢这个标的的原因。通过做数据中心(Colo)，他们避免了购买和管理 GPU 集群，这也是我下调 $IREN 评级的原因，因为 $IREN 面临一个新的风险因素，而 $NBIS 没有，且此前也不存在。 超大规模客户在空间、电力和冷却方面的高利润率、类年金收入。它是该板块中风险调整后风险最低的股票之一。 然而，其上行空间远不如其他标的。特别是当你看到租赁（例如 10-15 年）时，收入爬坡要慢得多，上行空间也远小于像 $NBIS 这样的全栈纯新云标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick. I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S. But here's the difference and nuance people might not know: Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo. $CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before. There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector. However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.
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澄清NBIS产能售罄非瓶颈，指出新云厂商执行与第三方依赖风险。
我仅针对之前关于 $NBIS 的错误框架进行回应，因为我也看到其他人有类似说法。它并未触及产能天花板，而是新上线的产能立即售罄，这是积极信号。不过你的后续观点是正确的，新云厂商在转换和连接产能方面面临执行风险，正如你提到的，$CRWV 是第三方依赖风险的良好案例研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm only addressing the earlier incorrect framing because I've seen it from others too when talking about $NBIS. It's not hitting capacity ceiling. It's immediately selling out of capacity they bring online, which is positive. Your follow up is correct though, it's an execution risk that Neoclouds face converting and connecting capacity and $CRWV is a good case study as you mentioned on 3rd party dependency risks.
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澄清NBIS产能售罄是需求旺盛而非瓶颈，收入受限于上线速度。
我不确定这种错误的框架来自哪里？ $NBIS 已售罄 220MW 的现有及近期互联电力，因为任何新增产能都在被全部分配。 这并非触及最大结构性产能天花板，而是对极端市场需求的验证。 预计 2026 年互联电力将达到 1 GW，他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同产能来支撑 $7-9B 的年度经常性收入(ARR) 目标。 这并不意味着他们不能像从 Q2 到 Q3 财报期间从 1 GW 扩展到 2.5 GW 那样扩大产能。他们只是售罄了任何上线的产能，而收入受限于他们能上线多少产能。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm not sure where this incorrect framing comes from? $NBIS sold out of 220MW of existing and near-term connected power because any new capacity is being fully allocated. That's not hitting a maximum structural capacity ceiling, that's validation of extreme market demand. 1 GW of connected power is projected 2026 and they have 2.5 GW of contracted capacity to support the $7-9B ARR figure. That doesn't mean they can't expand their capacity like they've done from 1 GW to 2.5 GW from Q2 to Q3 earnings. They just sell out of any capacity they bring online, and revenue is limited by how much capacity they can bring online.
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Nebius是纯新云AI基建标的，无债务与执行风险，具极高非对称上行潜力。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 现价 $86.69，是剩余最纯粹的“新云”(Neocloud) 和 AI 基础设施非对称性机会。 这是收入最高的、未受 $CIFR | $WULF 及数据中心(Colo) 提供商影响的 Neocloud 标的，且没有以下问题： - 不像 $IREN、$ORCL 那样面临全栈执行带来的巨大不确定性。 - 不像 $CRWV、$APLD 等那样背负高额利息债务。 - 不像 $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 等那样在超大规模超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler) 合同上存在收入不确定性。 在 AI 板块因恐惧情绪蔓延而普遍下跌后： Nebius 依然推进：明年年化经常性收入(ARR) 中值为 $80 亿，现金超 $47 亿，企业客户多元化（包括 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府机构），高增长投资组合公司，以及经过验证的高利润率全栈业务。 鉴于需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率）以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离： 在非对称上行潜力方面，没有任何标的能接近 Nebius。 你只需等待公司的执行落地。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no: - Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution. - High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face. - Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack. After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear: Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business. With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening: Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside. You are simply just waiting for company execution.
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NBIS虽脱离基本面但获MSCI大额流入，强烈建议买入。
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS 目前与基本面严重脱节，且我们在短短一周内获得了 MSCI 指数基金数千万至低十亿级别的资金流入。这不仅是买入，更是极其强烈的买入信号！话虽如此，目前大多数资产都在全线暴跌。
原推 ↗英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS is incredibly detached from fundamentals right now and we have MSCI few hundred million-low billion inflow in a week. Not just a buy but incredibly strong buy! That being said most assets are dropping like flies across the board right now.
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
原推 ↗英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
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CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
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NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
原推 ↗英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
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11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
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作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
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因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
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驳斥AI板块恐慌，指出托管商受Mag7支持，是错杀买入机会。
这是$CRWV、$ORCL的OpenAI效应。市场在恐惧时是非理性的，将整个板块视为单一实体，而忽视了细微差别： GPU折旧——Burry的做空论点（硬件快速过时）： $CIFR、$WULF等完全不受影响，因为它们不购买GPU，而是做数据中心托管(Colo)。 信用风险——收紧使得所有资本密集型的AI建设成本更高且更脆弱。 $NBIS等...是孤立的（资产负债表强劲，可转换债务）。 未来收入泡沫，OpenAI没有足够的... $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF完全不受影响，因为它们由Mag7支持，而非OpenAI。 对某些人来说，这是令人发笑的买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's the $CRWV, $ORCL OpenAI Effect. Markets are irrational during fear and views the sector as a single entity vs. seeing the nuances: GPU Deprecation - Burry Short Thesis (rapid hardware obsolescence): $CIFR, $WULF, etc. Literally not affected since they don't buy GPUs and do colo. Credit Risk - tightening makes all capital-intensive AI buildouts more expensive and fragile. $NBIS and others... isolated (Strong balance sheet, convertible debt). Future Revenue Bubble with OpenAI not having enough $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF literally not affected since they're backed by Mag7, not OpenAI. Hilarious buying opportunity for some.
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IREN转全栈致风险激增，NBIS/CIFR基本面稳健却被板块性做空。
谢谢，是的，我之前做分级列表时将 $IREN 列为 S 级，但他们因试图通过购买数十亿 GPU 与 $CRWV 在全栈领域竞争而被大幅降级。许多 $IREN 持有者争论称托管(Colo)最盈利，但在 $IREN 的财报电话会上，他们明确表示因“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”而购买 GPU 并从事全栈业务。构建软件层比人们想象的要难得多，$IREN 的执行风险急剧上升。与此同时，$NBIS 和 $CRWV 已经掌握了这一环节（根据其白皮书，$NBIS 胜过 $CRWV），但 Coreweave 在利息债务和 OpenAI 风波中搞砸了。不幸的是，我们看到整个板块被做空，尽管存在许多细微差别，例如 $CIFR 不受 GPU 贬值论点的影响。或者 $NBIS 拥有超过 5 年的 Mag7 及企业客户、强劲的资产负债表，且不受 $ORCL 及信贷收紧引发的 AI 泡沫 OpenAI 风波影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, yeah I had $IREN as S tier when I did my tierlist earlier but they got downgraded a lot because they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs. A lot of IREN holders were arguing colo was most profitable, but in $IREN's earnings call, they literally said they were buying GPUs and doing the full-stack due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns". It's much, much harder building out the software layer than people think and the execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely. Meanwhile $NBIS and $CRWV already has that nailed down ( $NBIS wins vs. $CRWV per their whitepaper) but Coreweave messed up with interest debt + OpenAI drama. Unfortunately we're seeing a whole sector short despite many of the nuances eg. $CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments. Or $NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco with $ORCL + credit tightening.
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新云生态分化，NBIS领先，IREN执行存疑，市场尚未完全定价。
新云(Neocloud)并非赢家通吃，而是一个完整的生态系统，但并非所有公司都能成为AWS。 我们看到$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL在真正的“新云”领域竞争，这是一场最有利可图的全栈竞赛，旨在成为Azure/AWS。它们进行垂直整合、建设容量、购买GPU并进行编排，一些孵化企业也加入了竞争。 目前$NBIS是明确的赢家，拥有超大规模云厂商+企业客户+良好的资产负债表，只是时间问题；$CRWV深陷利息债务；$ORCL建设失败，且OpenAI是其最大且风险最高的积压订单。$IREN前景看好，但执行层面存在最大问号，因为其路径不同于人们预期的$CIFR模式，其容量和软件编排比人们预期的难得多（看看$ORCL和$CRWV在软件收购上花费的数十亿美元）。 然后是$CIFR、$WULF、矿工等，它们利用现有容量进行更安全的托管机房(Colo)业务，而像Amazon这样的超大规模云厂商则插入自己的GPU。我仍将其归为新云，但也许该单独分类了，不过它们不受Burry关于2年GPU淘汰论虚假言论的影响。 其余公司正在向高性能计算(HPC)转型，承诺未来X量的容量，但在信贷收紧背景下，为此转型融资越来越难。 随着近期一系列财报的发布，我们开始看到新兴赢家，这是好事。市场尚未定价，但只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Neocloud isn't winner takes all, it's a whole ecosystem but not everything can become AWS. We're seeing $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL compete in the true "Neocloud", most profitable full stack race to become Azure/AWS. Doing vertical integration, building capacity, buying GPUs, and doing orchestration, and some incubants entering the race. So far $NBIS is the clear winner with hyperscalers + enterprises + good balance sheet in a matter of time, $CRWV is swamped with interest debt, $ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog. $IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution since it's not the original approach like $CIFR people were expecting with their capacity and software orchestration is much harder than people expect (looking at $ORCL then $CRWV spending billions on software aqusitions). Then there's $CIFR, $WULF, miners, etc and others do safer colo with their existing capacity while hyperscalers like Amazon plugs in their own GPUs. I still put them as a Neocloud but I guess it's time to make a separate category, but these aren't as affected by Burry's false comments about 2Y GPU deprecation lol. And then we have the rest... undergoing the pivot to HPC, with X amount of future capacity promised and this is becoming increasingly difficult to raise money for this change from credit tightening. It's a good thing that we're starting to see emerging winners after the series of recent earnings. Market hasn't priced this in yet but it's a matter of time.
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信贷收紧利好资产负债表健康的T1新云厂商，当前抛售是买入良机。
你的分析精准捕捉到了二阶Alpha。信贷收紧削弱了弱势竞争对手融资新建产能+改善远期自由现金流/利润率的能力，从根本上制约了其增长。 这意味着资产负债表健康且无高额债务利息的T1新云厂商（如$NBIS和$CIFR）将享有更持久的利润率。这是一个巨大的长期溢价，市场目前定价错误+在此次抛售中尚未计入。 正如我们所见，Mag7的资本支出正在增加，但正流向$NBIS、$WULF等赢家。由于$CRWV和$ORCL引发的恐慌+信贷收紧，我们正目睹一场不分青红皂白的抛售，这反而是买入机会，实际上也是受冲击最小的新云厂商的竞争优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
Your analysis nails the second-order alpha. Credit tightening hurts the ability of weaker competitors to fund new capacity + improve forward FCF/margins, fundamentally constraining growth. This translates to more durable margins to the T 1 Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR with healthy balance sheets and no high debt interest. This is a massive long term premium the market is currently mispricing + hasn't priced in yet with this sell-off. Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. We're seeing an indiscriminate sell-off due to panic from $CRWV and $ORCL + credit tightening, and this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds.
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AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
原推 ↗英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
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关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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机构逢低吸纳NBIS，散户因恐慌抛售。
@babyfolio 实际上，使用其他一些数据集，这一比例是 46.3%。 是的，机构正在从 $NBIS 的散户手中逢低吸纳。不过并非所有人都关注 X 平台，因此在那之外，可能有很多不了解其基本面和远期增长的群体正在恐慌性抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets. Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q
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高贝塔AI股因宏观恐慌错杀，基本面强劲者终将迎来价值回归。
我们正目睹高贝塔值AI股票板块的崩盘，部分个股在1个月内下跌30-45%+，今日再跌10%+。 这包括直接受益于“七巨头”资本支出的公司： - Nebius ($NBIS)：$META 30亿美元交易 / 80亿美元远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR)。 - TeraWulf ($WULF)：Anthropic数据中心(<500亿美元) + 与$GOOGL的合资光纤网络(FS)。 - Iren ($IREN)：$MSFT 90亿美元高性能计算(HPC)。 - Cipher ($CIFR)：与$AMZN签署15年55亿美元合同。 这些公司在过去一个月里改善了基本面。 但市场仍在恐慌性抛售从$CRDO (-10.33% 1D)到$CIFR (-7.28% 1D)的股票，尽管它们拥有创纪录的远期收入增长。 这主要是由宏观担忧（政府停摆、12月降息、公司债利差等）和虚假（但微妙）的机构观点（如Burry关于GPU折旧的说法）驱动的，而非基于个股基本面。 这清洗了AI投机性板块（如能源股$OKLO，1个月跌37%）中的泡沫，但高利润率的增长型股票也受牵连。 我之前说过，这让我想起$HOOD从$65跌至$28后反弹至$150，或$ALAB在所有财报超预期后从$100跌至$50再反弹至$245。 当市场充满恐惧，尤其是像现在这样的“AI泡沫”恐慌时，股价有时会与基本面脱节。 但当远期增长能支撑市值预期时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today. This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex : - Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR. - TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL - Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC - Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN. that improved their fundamentals in this past month alone. But markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth. This is driven over fears from macro (shutdown, Dec rate cut, corporate bond spreads, etc) and false (but nuanced) institutional claims eg. Burry on GPU depreciation, rather than individual fundamentals. This wipes away froth from the speculative parts of the AI sector such as $OKLO (energy, -37% 1M), but higher-margin growth names get caught together with it. I've said this before, but this reminds me of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a rally to $150. Or when $ALAB sold off from $100 to $50 off all earnings beats, then rallied to $245. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets, especially with “AI bubble” fears like what's happening now. But when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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作者调整META期权策略摊低成本，预期其将如NBIS般恢复。
@Neat_Lama 是的，感觉好多了。$META 的超卖走势出乎意料，但我预计它会在1月恢复。 我将期权从1月轮换至3月/4月到期，并摊低成本至约$640。目前仍大幅亏损，但我预计它会像 $NBIS 一样恢复。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Neat_Lama Yeah feeling better. $META extended selloff was unexpected but I expect it to recover by Jan. I rotated Jan into March/April expiration and averaged down to $640-ish. Still down a lot but I expect it to recover like $NBIS.
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反驳 Burry 观点，指出旧款 GPU/TPU 仍高利用率且具残值。
关于 $ORCL、$NBIS 及其他新云厂商 GPU 折旧论点的简要总结： Burry 的一般主张：处于 2-3 年产品周期的芯片资本支出（Capex）不应导致有用寿命的延长。 这一观点错误但具有细微差别： -> 以 $GOOGL 为例，其 7 年前的张量处理单元(TPU) 仍以 100% 利用率运行。 “谷歌称 TPU 需求超过供应，声称 8 年前的硬件迭代‘利用率达 100%’”——数据中心动态 -> 以 $NVDA 为例，A100（PCIe 和 SXM4 变体）仍在运行。它们于 2020 年发布，现在是 2025 年。旧型号保持价值并仍能带来收益。 它们具有残值，5 年后仍能高价转售。他在货架寿命上错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出合理性方面，他可能是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a TLDR on the GPU depreciation argument for $ORCL, $NBIS and other neoclouds, Burry's general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives. This is incorrect but nuanced: -> in $GOOGL's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are still run at 100% utilization. " Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in $NVDA's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's wrong on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.
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NBIS因市场过度反应大跌，机构报告对其商业模式构成压力测试。
确实，这会影响市场情绪，甚至导致过度反应，正如我们目前在 $NBIS 身上看到的（例如：年化经常性收入(ARR)超预期200%+，与 $META 的意外交易，却下跌20%+）。但像摩根大通(JPM)或伯瑞(Burry)这类机构报告，确实在根本上对商业模式进行了压力测试，例如更高的借贷成本和更严格的贷款条件。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well it does impact market sentiment to the point of overreaction, which we're seeing with $NBIS right now. (eg. beats ARR estimates by 200%+, surprise $META deal, down 20%+) But those types of institutional reports from JPM or Burry does fundamentally stress test business models a bit eg. higher borrowing costs and stricter loans.
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AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
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成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
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类比HOOD反弹，认为NBIS下跌源于恐慌，基本面仍支撑市值。
我刚刚想起 $HOOD 从 $65 跌至 $28，随后上演了一波撕裂面孔的反弹至 $150 的情景。当市场充满恐惧时，股价有时会脱离基本面。$NBIS 因“AI 泡沫”担忧而在更广泛的抛售中受累，正是如此。然而，前瞻性增长支撑了任何市值预测，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets. This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears. Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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建议用杠杆博取NBIS反弹，认为其230亿市值严重低估。
@Wutarded 如果我想在这样规模的组合中承担更多风险，我会使用保证金或LEAPS（长期股权预期权）来增加杠杆。 我很确定$90-93是底部，对于$NBIS日益增长的基本面来说，230亿美元的市场规模简直是有罪（被严重低估）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Wutarded I’d do margin/leaps here for more leverage if I wanted to take on more risk with that portfolio size. Pretty sure $90-93 is bottom, $23B market cap for the growing fundamentals of $NBIS is just criminal at this point.
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卖出低贝塔股，重仓超卖的新云板块及多只AI相关个股。
@soulbiri1 现在对 $NBIS 的敞口超过 200 万美元，在低于 96 美元时大幅加仓。在 53.8 美元重新买入 $IREN，17.3 美元买入 $CIFR，并首次建仓 $CORZ - 16.3 美元，$SMCI - 38 美元的中期头寸。整个板块被极度超卖，简直可笑。今天卖出了我的低贝塔（Low-Beta）股票，以便重仓回归新云（Neoclouds）领域。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 $2M+ in $NBIS exposure now, added super heavily at <$96. Rebought $IREN at $53.8, $CIFR at $17.3 and initiating $CORZ - $16.3, $SMCI - $38 mid term positions. The whole sector is hilariously oversold. Sold off my low-beta stocks today to position heavily back into Neoclouds.
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重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
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博主表示乐意继续持有NBIS的套牢仓位。
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG 我很乐意继续持有 $NBIS 的套牢仓位。 https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
原推 ↗英文原文
@dubiousnoob @Mitchelldzll @455BAG Im happy bagholding $NBIS https://t.co/AX2GN6tA5F
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反驳死扛泡沫论，强调$NBIS基本面强劲且估值合理。
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG 在美联储收紧货币时持有市值200亿美元但零收入的量子计算公司，这才是“死扛泡沫破裂”(Bag holding a bubble burst)。 而不是持有像 $NBIS 这样年营收增长700%+、年经常性收入(ARR)达80亿美元、EBITDA利润率20-30%、持有约60亿美元以上净资产(NAV)资产（这些资产来自为Meta和Anthropic提供动力的公司）、市值240亿美元的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening. Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B
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NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
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Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.
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基于Nebius最新财报数据，机械重算其估值模型，得出355美元新目标价。
Northland 早在9月就基于2026财年20-40亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)的假设，给出了$NBIS 205美元的目标价。 沿用其相同的经济模型，我们现在得出的1年目标价为： 约355.00美元/股（+248.04%） 这是基于Nebius财报中70-90亿美元ARR预测得出的。 以下是更新后的指标： Northland Capital Markets 2025年9月24日的报告，其2026财年情景假设： ARR：上调至20-40亿美元 营收：23亿美元 调整后EBITDA：9.07亿美元 核心AIaaS业务的EV/销售倍数：23.8倍 流通股：约2.9亿股 每股股权价值：205美元目标价 Nebius新基本面（2025年Q3发布）： 2026财年ARR ≈ 80亿美元（中位数），营收 ≈ 46亿美元，以及按比例缩放的EBITDA（约18亿美元）。 保持其EV/销售倍数 ≈ 23.8倍，新核心企业价值 ≈ 46亿美元 × 23.8 = 1090亿美元。加上子公司（Northland分部估值法合计约70亿美元）和净现金（约7亿美元）-> 总股权 ≈ 1170亿美元 → 约355美元目标价 这是一种机械外推，假设其分析中的估值倍数不变，并非分析师可能因稀释/执行风险等而调整的目标价。 分析师从20亿美元估计到管理层最新指引中位数80亿美元的2-3倍ARR增长，机械性地推高了估值 更新后的目标价是基于重新运行的DCF模型得出的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics: Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed: ARR: raised from $2-4B Revenue: $2.3B Adjusted EBITDA: $907M EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business. Shares outstanding: ~290 M Equity value per share: $205PT New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release): CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B). Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc. 2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.
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NBIS获微软Meta验证，需求巨大或超预期
@Dylanwith86 是的，这仅仅意味着当他们签订更多合同时，他们将增加年度经常性收入(ARR)，甚至可能超出其 $70-90 亿 ARR 的预测。两个月前，仅靠 $MSFT 就达到了约 $50 亿。市场对 $NBIS 全栈基础设施的需求巨大，$MSFT 和 $META 已经证明了这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT. Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.
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NBIS产能售罄且订单充足，市场低估其破纪录增长。
@ramiN4real 他们的产能已经售罄... 仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元。 $NBIS 将签订更多合同，所以这不是问题。 我仍然认为人们没有理解从季度营收1亿美元在一年内增长到20亿美元以上这种破纪录的增长意味着什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ramiN4real They sold out of capacity... for $7-9B ARR for next year alone. $NBIS will contract more so not a problem. I still don't think people understand how record breaking growing from $100m quarterly revenue to $2B+ in 1 year is.
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NBIS凭借能耗比优势大幅领先IREN。
@cmachdop $NBIS 凭借这一能耗比(Energy Ratio)将 $IREN 远远甩在身后。
原推 ↗英文原文
@cmachdop $NBIS blows $IREN out of the water with this ER
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Nebius收入指引上调，有望通过新交易明年达120亿ARR。
@StableBread 我原本希望确认50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，现在指引已上调至70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 这甚至还没考虑到$NBIS可能进一步扩大规模，超出该前瞻性收入指引，并通过与新超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)达成交易+获取更多算力容量，明年实现120亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 Nebius太疯狂了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StableBread I was hoping for $5B ARR confirmation, now it’s $7-9B ARR guided. And that’s not even considering that $NBIS could still scale up more and beat that forward revenue guidance and do $12B ARR next year with a new hyperscaler deal + acquiring more capacity. Nebius is crazy.
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NBIS市值将超千亿美元，当前瓶颈相比预期增长微不足道。
@ravi_nareddy 是的，看看被引用的帖子。即使考虑到这一点，与预期的增长相比，它依然微乎其微。 $NBIS 是一家正在崛起、市值将超 1000 亿美元的公司，这只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ravi_nareddy Yeah look at the quoted post. Even factoring that in, it's tiny compared to projected growth. $NBIS is a $100B+ company in the making, it's just a matter of time.
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计划继续加仓NBIS看涨LEAPS，认为当前价位严重低估。
@rioferdy838 如果开盘时股价维持在 $116 左右，我会继续加仓 $NBIS 的看涨长期期权（LEAPS）。鉴于财报中给出的新指引，当前价位被严重低估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rioferdy838 I'm adding more $NBIS call leaps if price stays around $116 when the market opens. Ridiculously undervalued at these levels given new guidance from earnings report.
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NBIS股价有望12月破150，取决于ATM增发时机。
@Neomeldir 即使到了12月，$NBIS 也很容易突破150美元。这主要取决于公司是否决定通过自动取款机(ATM)机制在市场上出售股份，以及具体的出售时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Neomeldir Even by December $NBIS can easily break $150. It just depends on when the company wants to sell shares on the market through their ATM (if they decide to do so)
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NBIS财报超预期，获META大单，强烈买入。
目前对 $NBIS 财报的总结： 绝对的。爆表。财报。 在两个月前刚与 $MSFT 达成 170 亿美元交易的基础上，又新增了 30 亿美元的 $META 大单，以及 Cursor 的新企业客户。 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR) 预测规模巨大，远超任何预期。 强烈买入，目标价 116 美元（包含定向增发 (ATM) 的影响）。https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
原推 ↗英文原文
Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far: Absolute. Blowout. Earnings. $3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago. $7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation. Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
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NBIS达成ARR预测，表现超预期，持仓价值显著重估
@Asmallfish5 是的，我在他们通往1000亿美元市值的路径分析中提到，他们只需要实现90-110亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，而他们已经达成了这一预测。 这是一次令人难以置信的持仓表现，即使考虑到10%的潜在定向增发(ATM)稀释，$NBIS 的股价也应远高于基于70-90亿美元预测的水平（我原本期望是50亿美元以上，但这完全超出了我的预期）
原推 ↗英文原文
@Asmallfish5 Yeah I was saying in my path to $100B they just needed to do $9-11B ARR, and they hit that projection. Incredible hold, and even through 10% potential ATM, $NBIS should be way up from this $7-9B projection (I was hoping for $5B+, but this blew away my expectation)
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看好NBIS，认为其收入增长抵消稀释，当前估值偏低。
我的意思是，仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元，这绝对是巨大的成就。 $NBIS 的股价应该交易在160美元以上，市场目前将其核心业务（季度ARR 22亿美元）估值为150亿美元（哈哈）。巨大的收入预测完全掩盖了任何自动取款机(ATM)融资稀释的影响。 除此之外，大概只需信任 Nebius 管理层即可。通过收购来修复是个不错的方案，但他们可能更清楚该怎么做。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean just as things are $7-$9B ARR next year alone is absolutely tremendous. $NBIS should be trading at $160+, markets valuing their core business ($2.2B ARR a quarter at $15B right now lol). The tremendous revenue projection outshadows any ATM dilution. That aside, probably just trust Nebius management on this one. Nice fix would be acquisitions, but they would probably know better.
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NBIS短期抛压大，但META合同战略意义重。
@0xcyberbro 中长期来看很容易。但在极短期内，存在27亿美元抛压（即使 $NBIS 在当前水平被低估）确实令人沮丧。 30亿美元的 $META 合同和年度经常性收入(ARR)预测在战略上更为重大，但股权融资在短期内财务负担更重。
原推 ↗英文原文
@0xcyberbro Easily for mid-long term. Very near term, it sucks that there's 2.7B worth of selling pressure (even if $NBIS is undervalued at these levels). The $3B $META contract and ARR projection is strategically bigger, but the equity raise is financially heavier in the short term.
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NBIS短期受稀释压制，但基本面强劲，当前股价被低估。
价值27亿美元的自动交易机制(ATM)股份稀释将对$NBIS股价造成短期压力。 从根本上看，他们每年90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的规模及其利润率，理应使其市值达到1000亿美元。 我认为，即使考虑到稀释因素，股价也应远高于当前水平（可转换票据(Convertible Notes)发行价在138美元以上），而这还是在其疯狂的ARR增长和与$META的交易之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
The $2.7B worth of ATM shares for dilution will put short term pressure on $NBIS stock price. Fundamentally doing $9B ARR a year with their margins should bring them to a $100B marketcap anyway. I'd argue stock price should be way up above these levels even factoring in dilution. (convertible notes were at $138+), and this was before their ridiculous ARR growth and $META deal.
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NBIS财报超预期且签Meta大单，因ATM稀释股价微跌，但长期前景极看好。
$NBIS 财报大幅超出预期，年化经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元，并与Meta达成30亿美元的超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易。他们还增加了企业客户Cursor。尽管如此，在财报电话会议前股价目前下跌1.77%。为什么？稀释~27亿美元，2500万股通过市场发行(ATM)稀释，将于11月12日提交。这意味着价值27亿美元的股票（按当前价格）可以在公开市场按当前价格出售，而非可转换票据（首选结构），这很可能是股价尚未上涨20%的主要原因。这会影响短期股价，但此次发行后公司基本面依然惊人，拥有卓越的未来收入增长。例如看看Rocketlab或其他通过此举补充增长的公司。如果有更多时间，我也会深入分析财务数据。但仅2026年的70-90亿美元ARR（许多分析师预期在2028年之后），是非常看多的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta. They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor. Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call. Why? Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM offering that will be filed Nov 12th. Meaning 2.7B worth of shares (at current prices) can be sold in the open market at current prices vs. convertible notes (preferred structure), which is the most likely reason it's not up 20% by now. It affect share price short term, but the company fundamentals after this offering is incredible with amazing forward revenue growth. Eg. look at Rocketlab or others that did this to supplement growth. Will also delve into financial data given more time. But the $7-9 billion ARR for 2026 alone (which many analysts expected in 2028+), is insanely bullish.
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$NBIS超预期并签$META大单，看好其成长为千亿美元市值公司。
哇，$NBIS 刚刚在增长方面大幅超出了年度经常性收入(ARR)预期，并在财报电话会议(ER)中宣布与 $META 签署了一份令人惊喜的30亿美元超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)协议。 他们现在预计2026年ARR将达到70-90亿美元，这意味着季度营收约为21亿美元以上。 这正是 Nebius 成长为一家市值1000亿美元公司的路径，$NBIS 正在成为一家世代级的公司。 关于整体业绩： 每股收益(EPS)：-0.52 vs -0.4（超预期23%） 营收：1.5573亿 vs 1.411亿（不及预期6%） 市场是前瞻性的，任何短期的财报电话会议波动都会被其巨大的未来增长前景所掩盖。 我将在有更多时间处理信息时进行更深入的分析，但就目前而言，这份惊喜的超大规模云厂商协议意义重大。 当市场对此进行定价时，股价应该远高于当前水平。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER. They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter. This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational company in the making. In terms of general earnings: EPS: -.52 vs -.4 (Beat by 23%) Revenue 155.73m vs. 141.1M (Miss by 6%) Markets are forward looking and any short term ER will be overshadowed by its immense forward growth projection. Will do a deeper rundown when there's more time to process information but so far, this is incredibly huge with a surprise hyperscaler deal. Stock should be up way above these levels when markets price this in.
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Nebius核心业务被低估，现有业务按计划推进即利好。
很多人仍不理解 $NBIS 的未来营收，Nebius 量化并确认像 $WULF 这样的财务数据，而 FinX 正基于其现有核心业务进行投机，这本身就足以成为下一次财报的催化剂。鉴于 $NBIS 已从高点下跌约 20%，且市场低估了其基于现有净资产/资产的核心业务价值。如果宣布像 $CIFR 那样的大合同我会感到惊讶，所以这不在此预期内。我更关注执行层面，如利润率等，在看到他们关于 MSFT 的白皮书和建设/时间表后。如果仅凭现有业务就能按计划推进，那将是极其积极的信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected. I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc. after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive. https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU
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宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
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看好NBIS强劲ARR指引及高利润率潜力，静待后续验证。
$NBIS 的年化经常性收入(ARR) 前瞻指引可能非常强劲。英国新数据中心和以色列政府数据中心将通过产能建设+新合同增加即时 ARR。白皮书暗示编排(Orchestration)业务将带来更高利润率。管理层展现出信心，这正是股东所喜欢的。几天后我们就会看到结果。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably a strong forward projections ARR for $NBIS. New UK datacenters, Israel government datacenters that add more immediate ARR with capacity buildout + new contracts. Whitepaper alludes to higher margins from orchestration. Management exudes confidence which is what shareholders like. We’ll see in a few days.
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博主澄清无付费群，强调理解回调原因以坚定持仓信心。
@CB3409 我不运营任何付费群组，只想免费发布信息以帮助他人。特别是在从 $NBIS 到 $ALAB 全面大幅回调的时期，理解其原因有助于建立持有仓位或定投(DCA)的信心，从而避免恐慌。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CB3409 I don’t do any paid groups, just want to publish information for free to help others out. Especially in times where there’s major corrections across the board from $NBIS to $ALAB, it helps to understand why in order to develop conviction on holding positions or DCA to not panic
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NBIS基本面改善显著但股价未动，看好指数纳入及新订单带来的利好。
希望你不会遭遇追缴保证金（如果你使用了杠杆）。否则，杠杆带来的反弹应该会带来更高的上行空间。 $NBIS 自与 $MSFT 达成交易以来，基本面出现了极其积极的变化，但其股价仍维持在最初公告时的跳涨水平附近交易。 抛开宏观因素不谈： - 预计11月24日左右纳入 MSCI 世界指数基金。 - 政府人工智能高性能计算（AI HPC）订单（以色列）。 - 英国数据中心项目。 还有其他次要的服务发布，比如 Token Factory，但我认为上述三点是最大的变化（后两者带来收入增长，前者带来流动性流入）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside. $NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop. Macro aside: - Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th. - Government AI HPC deals (Israel) - UK Data center. There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)
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基于降息预期和政府重开概率，推测高贝塔股将大幅复苏。
当然，我的推测是，一旦政府重新开放，我们将看到像 $NBIS、$IREN 或 $ASTS 这样的高贝塔(高波动性)股票大幅复苏。鉴于下个月降息这一更广泛的顺风因素已被定价，概率为 74%。 根据当前的合约数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：51%（未来一周内某时点约有半数机会） 11月30日：92% 我们可以看到，未来7天内政府重新开放的概率为50%。 因此，我们预计届时会出现复苏（如果概率增加，可能会有一些抢跑交易）。这仅仅是关于如何估算复苏。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, my speculation was that we'll see a large recovery in high beta stocks like $NBIS, $IREN, or $ASTS once government will re-opens. Since there's a broader tailwind of a rate cut next month priced in at 74%. So with the current contract data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 51% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% We can just see there's a 50% chance government reopens in the next 7 days. So we'll get a recovery around then (likely with some frontrunning if chances increase). That's just in terms with estimating recovery.
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高贝塔股大幅回调，建议基本面完好者逢低布局。
全面的回调简直令人作呕。 高贝塔值成长股过去5天的表现： • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% 像 $RGTI (-27.33%)、$QBUT (-25.5%)、$QBTS (-25.43%)、$OKLO (-17.04%) 等没有收入的投机性股票，普遍出现了更大的回调。 当政府重新开放时，我预计许多投机性名称将继续下跌，而基本面完好无损的公司（例如 $CIFR、$NBIS、$TSM、$HOOD、$RDDT）将会恢复。 当前合约市场数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：49%（下周某时约有一半几率） 11月30日：92% 在市场极度恐慌且下月第三次降息概率超过75%时，利用大幅回调布局高贝塔值股票（如果基本面完好）是绝佳时机。 像这样的大规模抛售也说明了为什么你不应该做剩余期限<30天的短期期权，即使你对 $SNAP 或 $CIFR 的财报判断正确。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretty disgusting correction across the board. Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks: • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% Speculative no revenue stocks like ( $RGTI -27.33%, $QBUT -25.5%, $QBTS -25.43%, $OKLO -17.04% etc), had larger corrections across the board. When the government reopens, I’d expect many of the speculative names to stay down, while companies where fundamentals are in tact (eg. $CIFR, $NBIS, $TSM, $HOOD, $RDDT) would recover. Current Contract Market data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 49% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% Great time to position into higher-beta stocks during large corrections, (if fundamentals are in-tact), especially when we're in the extreme-fear part of markets and there's 75%+ of a third rate cut next month. Broad selloffs like these are also why you don't do short dated options <30dte, even if you are correct on earnings like $SNAP or $CIFR.
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认为$NBIS受宏观影响被低估，基本面完好是买入良机。
@hereforgoodish $NBIS 在当前价位被严重低估。它只是一只受宏观环境影响的高贝塔（High Beta）股票。 如果基本面完好，这就是一个买入机会。 https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
原推 ↗英文原文
@hereforgoodish $NBIS is very undervalued at these levels. It’s just a high beta stock affected by broader macro. If fundamentals are in tact, then it’s a buying opportunity https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
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基本面强劲支撑AI板块，短期回调因宏观因素，建议逢低加仓。
忽略噪音，持有仓位或在市场赢家身上加仓。 你拥有： - 来自 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)的惊人远期营收增长 - 来自 $META 到 $MSFT 等七巨头(Mag7)财报创纪录的高资本支出(CapEX)预期 - 来自 $TSM 等半导体公司创纪录的高远期营收预期+利润率增长 如果基本面完好，像“AI派对结束了”这样的新闻头条就是胡扯。 随着政府停摆结束，我们很可能会看到重大复苏。 这很可能是一次短期回调，定价了诸如没有第三次降息（概率从86%降至70%，但仍有可能）+ 政府停摆延长至16日之后（合约市场显示53%的概率，两天前为30%）等因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
Ignore the noise and hold positions/add in market winners. You have: - Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR - Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT - Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from semiconductors like $TSM. If fundamentals are in tact, news headlines like "The AI Party is Over" is BS. We'll likely see a major recovery when government shutdown ends. This is likely a short-term correction pricing in a few things such as no third rate cut (86% -> 70%, still likely) + government shutdown extending past the 16th (53% chance, 30% chance 2 days ago) per contract markets.
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推测OSS为Anduril供应商，基于AI边缘计算需求匹配及AI模型概率分析。
披露：我目前无持仓，且不计划建仓。（原因：已持有过多高贝塔股票）。 我想发布一些关于 Anduril 供应链公司的投机性研究，这是在研究 $KRKNF | Kraken Robotics 之后进行的。 这是 $OSS（市值 1.1554 亿美元）。 简而言之：Anduril 为美国陆军推出了 Effects-Short Range (LE-SR) 系统。OSS 是一家边缘 AI 基础设施公司。尽管 Anduril 收购了竞争对手 Klas（一家坚固型 AI 边缘计算公司），但 $OSS 似乎是 Anduril 的供应商。 OSS 宣布获得一份 650 万美元的合同，交付 80 台“高性能服务器和现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)系统……用于支持美国军事行动的移动情报平台”。 1. OSS 的专业领域：为移动战术军事环境中的边缘 AI/ML 提供高性能、加固型 FPGA 和服务器系统。 2. Anduril 的需求：LE-SR (Altius 600) 平台需要坚固、紧凑的计算能力，以便在战术边缘自主运行其 Lattice AI 软件。 _ 650 万美元用于 80 台 3U SDS 加固服务器和 FPGA 系统。功能包括传感器数据采集、AI 生成的实时分析以及战术环境下的存储：这与 Lattice 对集群管理的需求相符： 硬件：AMD EPYC 9004 “Genoa” 处理器，最多七个 PCIe Gen4 x16 插槽用于 GPU/FPGA 集成，支持热插拔存储高达 1 PB，并针对 -40°C 至 70°C 的温度进行加固。 适合指挥控制(C2)：这些系统适合地面枢纽而非无人机载荷，支持操作员在环接口和多资产协调。 ________ 3. 买家被描述为一家“领先的国防和技术解决方案公司”。OSS 强调向国防领域转型（目前约占收入的 50%），此交易是其一系列成果的一部分，包括 600 万美元的国防部(DoD)续约和其他军事订单。 唯一缺失的是客户名称，鉴于国防承包商的性质，这通常保密，但看起来像是 Anduril，且是回头客（与该客户的额外开发和平台机会正在进行中）。 关于 OSS <-> Anduril 合同和信息的更深入内容是通过前沿模型 Deep Research 工具获取的： Gemini - 85% 的概率 Anthropic Claude - 75-80% 的概率 OpenAI ChatGPT - 70% 的概率 XAI Grok - 40-45% 的概率 认为 OSS 是 Anduril 的供应商。 如果 OSS 确实是 Anduril 的供应商并从 650 万美元的合同扩展，那么鉴于该国防承包商带来的未来收入潜力，其市值很可能从 1.2 亿美元向上重估。如果不是，鉴于其他美国军方合同，它目前的市值也是合理的。 支持 Anduril 使用 OSS 这一假设的间接证据似乎很有说服力。 我想在财报发布前发布这个看看是否正确（如果他们提到的话）。不过我不打算在此建仓，因为像 $NBIS 这样的高贝塔股票具有更高的非对称回报，但如果 $OSS 涨 5 倍，我会很遗憾。 我偶尔会研究一些小公司看看是否值得投资，但只是想出于好玩发布这个看看是否正确。
原推 ↗英文原文
Disclosure: I have no positions and don't plan on initiating any. (Reason: have too many high-beta stocks). I just wanted to publish some speculative research I did on Anduril supply chain companies after researching $KRKNF | Kraken Robotics. This is $OSS ($115.54M MC). TLDR: Anduril launched Effects-Short Range (LE-SR) for the US Army. OSS is an edge AI infra. $OSS seems like a Andruil supplier, despite Andruil aquiring Klas, a competing rugged AI edge company. OSS has announced a contract of $6.5 million to deliver 80 “high-performance servers and field-programmable gate array systems… for a mobile intelligence platform supporting U.S. military operations.” 1. OSS's specialization: High-performance, ruggedized FPGA and server systems for AI/ML at the edge in mobile, tactical military environments. 2. Anduril's requirement: The LE-SR (Altius 600) platform requires rugged, compact computing to run its Lattice AI software autonomously at the tactical edge. _ $6.5 million for 80 3U SDS rugged servers and FPGA systems. Functions include sensor data collection, AI-generated real-time analysis, and storage in tactical settings: mirroring Lattice's requirements for swarm management: Hardware: AMD EPYC 9004 “Genoa” processors, up to seven PCIe Gen4 x16 slots for GPU/FPGA integration, hot-swappable storage up to 1 petabyte, and ruggedization for -40°C to 70°C temperatures. Fit for C2: The systems suit ground-based hubs rather than drone payloads, supporting operator-on-the-loop interfaces and multi-asset coordination. ________ 3. The buyer is described as a "leading defense and technology solutions company". OSS has emphasized shifting to defense (now ~50% of revenue), with this deal part of a streak including $6M DoD renewals and other military wins The only missing piece is the customer name, which, given the military contractors, is often kept confidential, but it seems like its Anduril and it's a repeat-client (Additional development and platform opportunities are underway with this customer). A more in-depth information about OSS <-> Andruil contracts and info were fed through frontier model Deep Research tools: Gemini - 85% assigned probability Antropic Claude - 75-80% assigned probability OpenAI ChatGPT - 70% assigned probability XAI Grok - 40-45% assigned probability of OSS being the Andruil supplier. In the chance OSS is an Anduril supplier and scales up from the $6.5M contract, then it's likely to be re-rated upward from a $120m marketcap from high future revenue potential from this defense contractor. If not, then it deserves its current market-cap anyway due to other US Military contracts. The circumstantial evidence supporting the hypothesis of Anduril using OSS seems compelling. Thought it would be fun to post this before their ER to see if it's right or not (if they ever mention it). I don't plan on taking positions in this though since other high-beta stocks like $NBIS have higher asymmetrical return, but if $OSS 5x's, I'll be sad. I do look into small companies on the side to see if it's worth investing or not but just wanted to publish this for fun to see if it's right.
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TI文章揭示ORCL HPC低毛利，对比NBIS高毛利，市场因Altman承诺对ORCL存疑。
部分原因在于 TI 的抹黑文章，显示 $ORCL 因其 AI 高性能计算(HPC) 部门利用率低、编排失败，毛利率仅为 14%，而 $NBIS 等目前毛利率为 71.4%（平均 50-70%）。 这充分表明 HPC 部门是护城河，甚至超大规模云厂商在基础设施建设上也失败了。 除此之外，Sam Altman 向每家超大规模云厂商承诺了高得离谱的未来收入，因此市场对 Oracle 持有一定的怀疑态度。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well part of it is the TI hit piece which showed $ORCL was only doing 14% gross margins for their AI HPC segments due to low utilization, orchestration failures, while $NBIS and others were currently sitting at 71.4% (50-70% avg) Just goes to show HPC segments are moats and that even hyperscaleds failed on buildouts. Apart from that, Sam Altman has been promising every single hyperscaler stupidly high forward revenue, so markets are pricing in a bit of skepticism with Oracle.
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AMD市值潜力取决于AI模型应用，但鉴于对台积电依赖，仓位较小。
嗯，如果萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)和埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)关于前沿模型能充分利用AMD的说法属实，$AMD 的市值潜力有望达到 $NVDA 目前的水平。不过，OpenAI 目前承诺每年为 $AMD 带来额外数百亿美元的前瞻性收入，这显得有些过于乐观，让我们拭目以待。这也正是我的 $AMD 仓位相对于 $TSM 较小的原因，以及我说过无需将 AMD 与 NVDA 或 $IREN 与 $NBIS 进行比较的原因，因为所有环节都依赖于 $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hmm, $AMD has potential to be $NVDA’s current market cap if what Sam Altman + Elon Musk says is true in how frontier models can use it well. Then again OpenAi is promising too many things right now in terms of an additional tens of billions of forward revenue a year to $AMD, so we’ll see. That’s kind of why my AMD position sizes were small relative to $TSM, and why I’ve said you don’t need to compare AMD to NVDA or $IREN to $NBIS when every single thing is reliant on $TSM
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建议现金党通过卖出CSP期权以低价获取权利金。
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 对于 $NBIS 和矿企，如果你是现金党，是的，请卖出接近当前行权价（如 $105）的云服务提供商(CSP)期权，因为你的目标是以最低价格被指派并获取权利金。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rioferdy838 @Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm With $NBIS and miners if you’re cash gang, yeah write CSPs closer to current strike like $105 since your goal is to get assigned + premium at the lowest prices
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不建议在NBIS暴跌时卖看跌期权，因低估且可能反弹。
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm 在 $NBIS 出现此类极端下跌时，我不卖出看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts)，因为它随时可能反弹至 $130+ 的行权价。鉴于当前的权利金，像 $160+ 这样深度虚值(Far OTM)的期权并不值得操作。你并不总是需要卖出期权，尤其是当你认为某只股票被极度低估时。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm I don't sell CC's on $NBIS on extreme drops like this since it can rebound to $130+ strikes any day. Far OTM ones like $160+ are not worth it given current premiums. You don't always need to write options, especially if you think a stock is extremely undervalued.
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分析CRWV收购失败及高息债务劣势，对比NBIS优势并指出政府合同潜力。
对于 $CRWV 而言，问题在于其收购 $CORZ 未能获批。Core Scientific 本应比那 90 亿美元的收购价带来更大价值。若能在其现有合同基础上，通过收购为全栈模型（Full Stack Model）增加更多 GW 级算力，将是极度看涨（omega bullish）的利好。 Coreweave 每年还有超过 10 亿美元的利息债务，这对自由现金流（FCF）和利润率造成了极大拖累（相比之下，$NBIS、$CIFR、$IREN 使用的是可转换票据）。 $NBIS 已经实现了 $CRWV 的全栈垂直整合，但拥有更高的利用率、更好的编排/性能（根据其白皮书）、无巨额债务利息以及高积压订单，因此市场看到了其他风险更低、上行空间更大的替代方案。 不过，如果 $CRWV 获得美国政府合同批准，那将是另一个巨大的看涨催化剂。但我们已经看到像与 $META 签订的 140 亿美元这样的大型合同积压订单，然而其债务利息确实荒谬。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $CRWV it was $CORZ acquisition failing to get approved. Core scientific would have delivered so much more value than that 9B price tag. Having more GW capacity added to their full stack model (on top of their existing contract with them), would have been omega bullish with the acquisition. Coreweave also has $1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins (compared to $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN with did convertible notes). $NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance (as per their whitepaper) + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging. If $CRWV get approved for US Gov contracts though, that would be another huge catalyst upside. But we already have visibility into large contracted backlogs like $14B with $META but the debt interest is just ridiculous.
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政府重开引发资产抛售，看好NBIS、META等优质资产错杀机会。
政府重新开放（可能在14号左右）真是个奇怪的催化剂，但确实如此。现在确实是资产抛售。没想到$BTC会再次跌破10万美元，但它确实跌了。然后是$NBIS，其核心业务（50-70%+利润率）明年ARR达50亿美元（无增长），净资产值110亿美元+，其中58亿为现金。市值270亿美元。$META，远期市盈率<22或更低？我听说有19倍市盈率的说法，我只是凭记忆。它仍在快速增长，在这个规模下更令人印象深刻。只是叙事和一次性税收导致价格下跌。还有其他有趣的买入如$RKLB、$RDDT等，但这类修正会抹去很多泡沫如$OKLO、$RGTI，但优质资产也遭殃。
原推 ↗英文原文
Gov reopening (likely around ~14th) is such a weird catalyst but it is. Yeah it's an asset fire sale right now. Didn't think $BTC would go below $100k again but it did. Then there's $NBIS, $5B ARR (50-70%+ margin) core business 1Y from now (without any growth), and NAV 11B+ with 5.8B of it cash. Valued at $27B. $META, <22 forward p/e or less? I've heard 19 p/e floated, I'm just going off the top of my head. It's still growing rapidly, which is even more impressive at that scale. Just narratives and one-time-tax dropped price. Lot of other fun buys like $RKLB, $RDDT and others too, but these types of corrections wipe off a lot of froth like $OKLO, $RGTI, but great assets get caught in the crossfire.
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
原推 ↗英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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计划向META定投并逢高加仓NBIS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 我将在 $610 的价格向 $META 定投(DCA)六位数的资金。对于 $NBIS，如果我会通过减仓其他头寸来获利了结，我会始终在多头仓位上进行向上摊平成本(Cost Average Up)。 但如果其他人目前没有在这些股票上持有头寸，这正是一个绝佳的买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger I’ll DCA another 6 figures into $META at $610. For $NBIS I’ll always cost average up for longs if I trim other positions But if others don’t have positions they want in those right now it’s an amazing buying opportunity
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宏观利空非个股问题，$NBIS基本面强劲，视为买入机会。
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger 这只是宏观层面的影响，并非个股自身的问题，因此这是一个买入机会。大多数高贝塔(高Beta)个股在没有消息的情况下今天都下跌了。但区别在于 $NBIS 拥有支撑基本面的极高远期收益(Forward Earnings)，所以这只是一个等待游戏。
原推 ↗英文原文
@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger This is just macro, not happened to the individual stock so it’s a buying opportunity. Most high beta names without any news are down today. But difference is $NBIS has stupidly high forward earnings to back up fundamentals so it’s just a waiting game
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独立建设促专业化，全栈是护城河，苹果或向上游整合。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，观察得很准，随着各自独立建设，我们很可能会看到专业化分工的出现。 全栈能力如何构建构成了护城河，像 $NBIS 这样的模式目前尚未被复制。 不过，你也可以指出 $APPL 与 $QLCM 的情况，在熊市(🐻case)情景下，苹果正在向上游整合。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah good observation, we’ll likely see specializations emerge from separate buildout. It is a moat in how you do full stack and some models like $NBIS haven’t been replicated yet. Then again you can point out $APPL vs $QLCM with Apple sucking back up the stack as the 🐻case
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澄清S+评级含义，指出NBIS因高利润和非对称回报入选。
@onceinliftime3 根据 @DeepValueBagger 的说法，S+ 等级是虚构的。但这仅意味着它是评级最高的类别。$NBIS 是唯一符合标准的 Neocloud（新云）公司，因其高利润率和非对称回报潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@onceinliftime3 According to @DeepValueBagger S+ is made up. But it just means it’s the highest rated category. $NBIS was the only Neocloud that fits due to high margins and asymmetrical return
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IREN交易因承担高额CapEx且毛利远低于NBIS而显得糟糕。
当你关注自由现金流(FCF)而非营收数字时，$IREN 的交易看起来糟糕得多，因为它并非纯粹的托管服务(Colo)。当标准化至 300 MW 并对比微软(MSFT)的交易时，$IREN 预计毛利率仅为 30% 左右，甚至在悲观情景下为低个位数，而 $NBIS 则超过 50%（至少基于初步计算，我需要重新审视）。在这种情况下，$IREN 自行承担了 58 亿美元的 GPU 及辅助设备资本支出(CapEx)。
原推 ↗英文原文
The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit) In this case, IREN is taking on the $5.8 billion CapEx for the GPUs and ancillary equipment itself.
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对比CIFR与IREN，认为前者估值合理，后者合同条款差且利润率低。
对于 $CIFR，当前盈利无关紧要，市场定价基于远期盈利。乍看之下，除了通过 Fluidstack 现有的 $GOOGL 合作外，AWS 的交易看起来棒极了。因此其 20% 的涨幅实至名归。 另一方面，$IREN 的合同细看之下越来越糟。 营收不重要，重要的是该营收带来的自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，尤其是考虑到他们正在花费 58 亿美元购买 GPU。我看过一些保守情景测算，显示其年化营业利润仅约 9800 万美元/年，这真的太低了。 即便乐观估计，毛利率也在 30% 以下甚至 20% 出头，而非其他人引用的 90%+ 的高性能计算(HPC)板块。这才是规模化后的利润率现实。 $IREN 是在购买资产，而非人们一直声称的提供托管服务(colocation service)。 $NBIS 与微软(MSFT)的交易在标准化至 300MW 后，其盈利能力和毛利率远优于 $IREN。当然，我还需要花更多时间进行建模。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump. For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more. Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low. Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale. IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do. $NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.
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对比NBIS与IREN微软合约，前者利润率更高且能产生自由现金流。
经过更深入的研究，$NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易在标准化至 300 MW 后，其盈利能力和利润率似乎远优于 $IREN。 这不仅仅关乎营收，因为如果不能产生自由现金流(FCF)，营收就没那么有用。 对于 $IREN： 总合同价值 97 亿美元 GPU 资本支出(Capex) 58 亿美元，包括辅助设备 ~38% 的毛利率。 $NBIS 51.76%+ 的毛利率。 我需要做更多计算来验证，这只是在交易差异方面的一次快速深度研究计算。
原推 ↗英文原文
After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful. For $IREN: $9.7bn total contract value $5.8bn GPU capex, including ancillaries ~38% gross margin. $NBIS 51.76%+ gross margin. I need to do more calculations to verify, this was just a quick deep-research calculation in terms of deal differences.
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IREN/CIFR涨幅回吐，NBIS回调提供买入良机。
哇，$IREN 和 $CIFR 刚刚抹去了其涨幅。至少对于 $IREN 而言，我想市场已经提前计入了超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同预期。 不过 $CIFR 的 AWS 公告确实让所有人都大吃一惊。 $NBIS 随大盘下跌，但鉴于整个 Neocloud 行业因超大规模云服务商合同接连公布以及财报季(ERs)期间前景极为看涨，这 -5% 的回调买入机会极好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow $IREN and $CIFR just wiped out its gains. For $IREN at least, I guess the market was pricing in a hyperscaler contract already. $CIFR AWS announcement was a really big surprise to everyone though. $NBIS just dropped with the rest of the market but an extremely good -5% dip buy since the whole Neocloud industry is really bullish with hyperscaler contracts announced left and right + during ERs.
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IREN完成重大去风险事件，值得重估，需时间建模。
@moninvestor 就像人们常说的手越大越好（~190亿美元 $NBIS 对比 ~90亿美元 $IREN）。 半开玩笑地说，这对 $IREN 来说是一个实质性的去风险事件，值得重新评级。我需要更多时间来进行估值。 （这是制作层级列表的人，如果其他金融X用户想做一个的话） https://t.co/oefhQy7Trn
原推 ↗英文原文
@moninvestor Like what they say with hands, the bigger the better (~$19B $NBIS vs ~9B $IREN). Half-joking aside, this was a material de-risking event for $IREN and deserves re-rating. Will need more time to do valuations (This was the tierlist maker if any other finx wanted to make one) https://t.co/oefhQy7Trn
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维持NBIS看涨目标，看好新云服务商整体利好及NBIS高非对称性。
我仍维持 $NBIS 1年目标价 $400 的看涨观点，但逢低平均成本是个好主意。 $IREN 今天刚获得 $MSFT 的 90 亿美元订单，$GOOGL 也刚刚宣布融资，这对所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)来说总体是利好。 几家挖矿公司因该交易大幅降低了风险，但我仍认为 Nebius 具有最高的非对称性(Asymmetry)。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it’s good to cost average. $IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it’s generally bullish for all Neoclouds. Several miners got de-risked a lot today from the deal, but I’d still say Nebius has highest asymmetry.
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推荐年末满仓MINT组合（META/IBIT/NBIS/TSM），利用错杀与高非对称回报。
只有四只股票： 🍬 MINT 拥有极其高、非对称的回报。 意味着低资本风险，高上行回报。 这仅适用于2025年11月和12月。 就是它... MINT 关于为何在2025年底满仓MINT的解释： M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM 将这些神圣的成长型公司纳入你的投资组合，你可以让呼吸更清新，从而吸引Sydney Sweeney： Mag7。加密货币。AI数据中心。半导体。 $META - Meta ___________ 愚蠢的抛售。 营收超预期。每股收益超预期。强劲指引。 当你看到营收512.4亿美元（同比+26.25%），净利润27.1亿美元（同比-82.73%）时，纸面上看起来极其糟糕。 🟢 营收：512.4亿美元 vs. 预期494.1亿美元 剔除一次性税收影响 → 🟢 每股收益：7.25美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 包含一次性税收影响 → 🔴 每股收益：1.05美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 我猜测最初的抛售是由算法驱动的，随后由机械性资金流引起。许多高频交易(HFT)和新闻解析系统会对直接从数据源（彭博、路透等）拉取的头条每股收益数字做出反应。 如果报告的GAAP每股收益（1.05美元）与共识预期（6.67美元）并列显示，系统会将其标记为大幅不及预期。显然这是推测性的，但许多模型并未编程以归一化处理一次性税收费用（这是新的），也不会知道去查看实际超预期的调整后每股收益（7.25美元）。 现在新闻声称抛售是由于AI资本支出惊喜所致。如果接受这个说法，因“AI资本支出增加”而下跌15%+纯粹是叙事，毫无意义，因为$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$TSLA以及每一个Mag7都在增加资本支出。 $META做同样的事却遭到抛售说不通，除非人们认为它只是进入一个没有投资回报的黑洞（市场不同意，因为AI基本上在推动$SPY）。 一旦周末有时间让人们消化实际发生的情况，恢复将是极强的买入机会。误读+愚蠢的叙事可能导致短期过度反应（1-2个交易日），通常会被逆转。 $IBIT - 比特币 ___________ 它是比特币。目前位于11万美元。 随着美国政府的支持，以及持续的货币通胀+资金流向新一代人，没有比BTC更好的通胀对冲工具了。 Polymarket仍然定价比特币在2个月内上涨40%至13万美元，即使它上涨几个百分点，你也可以在加密货币和底层资产上获得上行空间。 $NBIS - Nebius ___________ 核心业务估值：310-365亿美元 分部加总（现金、资产、投资组合）：~106亿美元（削减40% = ~63亿美元） 基准情景估值：~390亿美元 → 即使零增长也有高上行空间 核心业务有望在FY26-27实现~50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，60-70%毛利率，30%息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)目标。 通过再达成一个超大规模云厂商协议+SMB扩张，实现80-120亿美元ARR可能证明~1000亿美元估值合理。 无有毒债务，高GPU利用率，全栈架构 → 更高的经营杠杆。 你可以看我引用的要点比较，以便你对$NBIS vs $IREN做出自己的判断。 然而，我将始终维持$NBIS拥有包括$IREN到$CIFR在内的最高非对称回报，因为现有的超大规模云厂商协议、企业客户（Shopify, Accenture）、政府客户、1GW容量、来自全栈的高毛利率等。 这并不是说来自$WULF的Fluidstack + Google协议以及其他容量方面没有高上行空间。 Nebius的下行风险最低。而且它真的、真的有高上行空间。 $TSM ______________ 它是AI交易的中心。 他们已经指引利润率增加——这是天文数字般的。 营收：331亿美元 vs. 315亿美元预期。 每股收益：2.92美元 vs. 2.59美元预期。 指引：322-334亿美元 vs. 320亿美元预期。 他们超收了营收指引，利润率增加，他们印钱的速度真是天文数字。 财报前交易在305-310美元，现在回到300美元。 这是一家万亿+美元的公司，同比增长30%+且利润率提升——到底怎么回事。 我之前在$GOOGL 145美元和$HOOD 20美元时说过同样的话。他们印钱。 没必要辩论$ALAB vs $CRDO，$IREN vs $NBIS，$AMD vs $NVDA。 $TSM是整个AI建设周期的中心，所以这只是等待游戏。 _ 就是它$MINT。 享受歌曲的预告，有点炸。🎶
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s only Four stocks: 🍬 MINT That have ABSURDLY HIGH, asymmetrical return. Meaning Low Capital Risk. High Upside Return. This is only for Nov + Dec 2025. Here it is... MINT An explanation of why to full port MINT for end of year 2025: M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM With these four holy growth companies in your portfolio, you can make your breath smell better so you can pull Sydney Sweeney: Mag7. Crypto. AI Data Center. Semiconductor. $META - Meta ___________ Stupid sell-off. Revenue Beat. EPS Beat. Strong guidance. It looks extremely bad on paper when you look at Revenue $51.24B (+26.25% Y/Y), Net income $2.71B (-82.73% Y/Y). 🟢 Revenue: $51.24B vs. est. $49.41B Without one-off tax → 🟢 EPS: $7.25 vs. est. $6.67 With one-off tax → 🔴 EPS: $1.05 vs. est. $6.67 My guess was the initial sell-off was algorithmically driven, then caused by mechanical flows. Many high-frequency trading (HFT) and news-parsing systems react to headline EPS numbers pulled directly from data feeds (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). If the reported GAAP EPS ($1.05) is printed alongside a consensus of $6.67, the system flags it as a massive miss. Obviously this is speculative, but many models aren't programmed to normalize for one-time tax charges (which is new) and won’t know to look at adjusted EPS ($7.25), which actually beat. Now news are claiming the sell-off was due to AI capex surprise. If we go with this, -15%+ on “AI capex spending increasing” is just pure narratives and means absolutely jack since $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $TSLA, and every single Mag7 is increasing on capex. $META doing the same and selling off doesn’t make sense, unless people believe it’s just going into a black hole with no ROI (which markets disagree since AI is basically running $SPY). Extremely strong buy on recovery once there’s time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened. Misreads + stupid narratives can cause short-term overreactions (1–2 sessions), often reversed. $IBIT - Bitcoin ___________ It’s Bitcoin.And sitting at $110k. Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there’s no better hedge against inflation than BTC. Polymarket still prices Bitcoin 40% to $130k in 2 months’ time, even if it moves up a few percent you can have upside on CCs and upside on the underlying asset. $NBIS - Nebius ___________ Core business valuation: $31–36.5B Sum-of-parts (cash, assets, portfolio): ~$10.6B (slashed 40% = ~$6.3B) Base case valuation: ~$39B → high upside even with zero growth Core business on track for ~$5B ARR (FY26–27), 60–70% gross margins, and 30% EBITDA target. Hitting $8–12B ARR (via one more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion) could justify ~$100B valuation. No toxic debt, high GPU utilization, full-stack architecture → higher operating leverage. You can look at the bullet point comparison that I quoted so you can make your own judgement on $NBIS vs $IREN for example. However, I’ll always maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return over anything including $IREN to $CIFR due to existing hyperscaler deals, enterprise clients (Shopify, Accenture), Government Clients, 1GW capacity, high gross margins from full-stack, and many others. That’s not saying there’s not high upside from $WULF from Fluidstack + Google deals, and others from capacity. The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside. $TSM ______________ It’s the CENTER. OF. THE. AI. TRADE. They’ve already guided INCREASING MARGINS - which is astronomical. Revenue: $33.1B vs. $31.5B est. Earnings per Share: $2.92 vs. $2.59 est. Guidance: $32.2B – $33.4B vs. $32.0B est. They’ve beat revenue guidance, increasing margins, and it’s just astronomical how much money they’re printing. It was trading at $305–310 pre-earnings, now back at $300. It’s a $1T+ company that grew 30%+ Y/Y with their margins — what the actual. I said this about the money printer $GOOGL back at $145 and $HOOD back at $20. They print money. There's no need to debate $ALAB vs $CRDO, $IREN vs $NBIS, $AMD vs $NVDA. $TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it’s just a waiting game. _ There is it $MINT. Enjoy a teaser of the song, kinda a banger. 🎶
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澄清对IREN的立场，指出其实际利润率低于宣传值，强调权衡取舍。
另外，当我发布关于 $IREN 和 $NBIS 的对比，或谈论 $IREN 拥有与 $RIOT 和 $MARA 相当的能力，并指出规模化后的利润率比算力更重要时，我并非看空 IREN，只是陈述现实情况。 同样，当人们声称他们拥有 92% 的毛利率时，如果你计入折旧和其他费用，事实并非如此。他们只是进入了另一个类别，如果你按照其他高性能计算(HPC)公司核算毛利率的方式进行标准化处理，利润率会低得多。 但这并不意味着情况糟糕，总是存在权衡取舍。
原推 ↗英文原文
Also when I post about comparisons between $IREN and $NBIS or talking about $IREN having comparable capacity to $RIOT and $MARA, and saying margins at scale matter more than compute, I'm not bearish on IREN, just giving the reality of the situation. Same when people try claiming they have 92% gross margins, they don't when yo factor in deprecation and other expenses. They just went into another category and if you normalize it with how other HPC companies do accounting for their gross margins, margins are a lot less. But that doesn't mean it's bad, there's always tradeoffs.
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分析超大规模云服务商自建ASIC对NBIS等公司的长期下行风险及合约保护机制。
是的，长期来看，超大规模云服务商自建ASIC和产能，且在合约容量结束后不再使用Neoclouds，这是$NBIS等公司的下行风险。我在最初的投资逻辑中提到，$CRWV、$NBIS几乎充当$NVDA的“云业务部门”，有助于抵御来自超大规模云服务商的利润率压缩并实现业务多元化。这就是为什么超大规模云服务商将收入导向这些小型公司。但总体而言，如果你的合约条款是10年或15年，你会拥有更多保护，但收入增长幅度较小（例如$NBIS与$MSFT的交易，收入在1-2年内从约11亿美元ARR增长至38亿美元以上ARR）。话虽如此，那是4-5年后的事，目前推测为时过早。通常你会根据新信息的出现，按月进行重估或审视风险与回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah longer term that's the downside risk for $NBIS and others in terms of hyperscalers building out ASICs and capacity and not using Neoclouds after contracted capacity ends. I said in my original thesis that $CRWV, $NBIS and almost serve as $NVDA's cloud arm, and helps defend against margin compression from hyperscalers and diversify their business. That's why hyperscalers funnel revenue down to these small guys. But generally, you have more protection if your contract terms are 10Y or 15Y but less revenue ramp. (eg. with $NBIS $MSFT deal, revenue ramps to $3.8B+ ARR in 1-2 years on top of their ~1.1B ARR) That being said, that's 4-5 years from now, it's too far forward to speculate as of now. Usually you do things like re-rate or examine risk vs. reward month-by-month whenever new information comes out.
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对比不同数据中心租赁期限对收入爬坡及长期竞争力的影响。
我删除了之前的评论，因为 X 平台有 Bug 导致时间线混乱： 简而言之： $APLD 建设具有显著电力容量的数据中心，然后将基础设施租赁给客户。目前有 $110 亿的 $APLD 和 $CRWV 针对 Ellendale 园区的 15 年租赁协议。 Polaris Forge 2 约为 200+ MW，合同价值 $50 亿。从交易者视角来看，我不太看好较长的合同期限（例如 $CIFR | $WULF 的 10 年），相比 $NBIS | $MSFT 的 5 年合同，因为前者收入爬坡较慢且成本存在变数。但这并非真正的利空，因为如果你投资的是 1 年周期，你会希望收入爬坡尽可能快。 但如果看 FluidStack $WULF 的 15 年合同协议，它为公司在长期内提供了更多保障；反之，如果像 $MSFT 这样的超大规模云厂商最终自建容量和定制 ASIC，那么一些 Neocloud 公司在 4 年后可能会陷入困境。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm deleting my earlier comment to this since X is bugged and it's messing up my timeline: But TLDR from before: $APLD builds data-centers with significant power capacity and then lease that infrastructure to customers. So there's the $11B $APLD, $CRWV lease right now over 15 years for Ellendale campus. Then there's Polaris Forge 2 is ~200+ MW with a $5B contract. Not much of a fan of longer contract terms (eg. 10 Years $CIFR | $WULF), vs. 5 Year $NBIS | $MSFT, since slower revenue ramp and changes of costs, but this is coming from a trader's perspecitve. Not as an actual negative when I talk about longer contract terms since if you’re investing for 1Y timeframe, you’d want the fastest revenue ramp possible. But if you look at fluidstack $WULF contract agreements eg. 15 years it provides a lot more guarantees for a company over time, vs. if hyperscalers like $MSFT end up building out their own capacity and custom ASICs then some Neoclouds might be in trouble after 4Y
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分析AI基建公司融资方式、股权稀释风险及现金流依赖。
你说得对，低市值（MC）公司的风险比人们预期的要大，我会在下一篇帖子中指出其中的权衡取舍。 即使是市值较大的公司也会稀释股权，但稀释结构极其重要，就像 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 发行可转换债券（convertibles）那样。 有些公司主要通过资本支出（capex）进行融资，比如 $CORZ，但大多数公司（如 $NBIS）的目标是通过 $MSFT 的交易产生的自由现金流（fcf）来为资本支出融资。只是在初始建设阶段，像 $SLNH 这样的公司需要弄清楚如何为项目管道或 GPU 收购获取资金。
原推 ↗英文原文
You’re right there’s a lot more risk involved than people expect for lower MC ones and I’ll point off the tradeoffs in the next post. Even bigger ones dilute but dilution structure is extremely important like how $CIFR, $NBIS did convertibles. Some fund through primarily through capex like $CORZ, but the goal is for most like $NBIS to fund capex through fcf with the $MSFT deal. Just in initial buildout like $SLNH they need to figure out how to get funding for pipelines or GPU acquisitions.
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博主分享持仓相似性并询问对方看好NBIS的理由
@pepemoonboy 哈哈，自从我前几天加仓 $META 后，我们的多头持仓现在很相似。我只是在 $TSM 上押注更重，而不是 $NVDA。是什么让你确信 $NBIS？
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy lol we have similar longs now that I added $META the other day. I just went harder on $TSM instead of $NVDA. What convinced you on $NBIS?
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AI工具在分析Neoclouds时存在缺陷，作者更倾向手动整合信息并采用估值建模。
我发现像 @AskPerplexity、Grok 等 AI 工具在研究 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）和每日新闻频发的板块时，结果往往极不准确。它们会遗漏大量细节，例如 $NBIS 的白皮书中有关于与 $CRWV 等对比的利用率信息，这些数据对 AI 不可见（暗示了 GPU 利用率带来的毛利率增长）。当 Meta 与 $CRWV 达成 140 亿美元交易，且上周 $AMZN、$MSFT 等发布财报显示 AI 资本支出增加时，AI 可能会忽略那些未直接提及 $NBIS 但暗示超大规模云厂商交易增加的顺风因素。或者几天前的额外降息提振了涉及债务的 Neoclouds 的前瞻性盈利。亦或是关于 Clickhouse 等子公司或投资组合公司的新信息，AI 可能无法将其串联起来。FinX 散户在将这些信息拼凑成前瞻性增长方面做得更好，鉴于 AI/Neocloud 的总可寻址市场(TAM)具有高度投机性和快速增长，很难建模。这也是我采用估值方法的原因（在我之前关于 $NBIS 如何达到 1000 亿美元市值的帖子中），但如果看 $UPWK 等更标准的业务，我的估值建模方式则不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day. They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization). When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals. Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with. FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is. That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently
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澄清 $NBIS 全栈优势在于优化成本提升利润率，而非仅营销。
很多人对 $NBIS 的这一点存在误解： 全栈(Full-stack) 是一种护城河，因为它优化了内部运营支出(opex)并提高了利润率。这不仅仅是纯粹的外部营销手段。 我们已经看到过为什么在大规模扩张时利润率很重要，当市值 $8000 亿的巨头 $ORCL 在毛利率仅为 14% 的情况下进行建设时遇到了困难。
原推 ↗英文原文
A lot of people misunderstand this point with $NBIS : Full-stack is a moat because it optimizes internal opex and increases margins. It’s not just purely an outward marketing play. We’ve already seen why margins are important at scale when $ORCL a $800B giant had trouble with buildout with 14% gross.
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对比NBIS与IREN：前者低险高透，后者高险高赔。
是的，确实如此！别担心。 估值涉及产能（设备能力）以外的众多要素。以美国的 $ORCL（甲骨文）为例，他们最终失去了利润优势，因为即便在该规模下，其毛利率也仅为 14%。 利润率（Margin）至关重要。 $NBIS 像 Amazon Web Services 一样开展全栈业务，因此在 Neo-Cloud 行业中拥有最高的利润率。 另一方面，许多转向 AI 计算业务的较小公司，在规模化后的利润率尚不明确。 不过，$NBIS 在合同等方面具有最高的透明度，目前只需等待规模扩张。 对于 $IREN 而言，关键在于能否获得像 $NBIS（Nebius）那样的 $MSFT 超大规模云厂商合同，以及在规模化时能否维持高利润率，这是一场“赌注”。 正因如此，我说 Nebius “下行风险最低，明年有 300%以上的上涨空间”。 而 $IREN 风险较大，但由于估值较低，若成功则回报可能更大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes it does! No worries 評価にはキャパシティ（設備能力）以上の多くの要素が関わっています。 アメリカの $ORCL（オラクル）を例に見ると、彼らは最終的に利益を失いました。というのも、その規模でも粗利益率がわずか 14% にとどまったからです。 マージン（利益率）は非常に重要です。 $NBIS は Amazon Web Services のようにフルスタックで事業を展開しているため、ネオクラウド業界の中でも最も高い利益率を誇ります。 一方で、AI コンピュート事業へ転換した多くのマイナー企業については、スケールした際の利益率がまだ明確に見えていません。 とはいえ、$NBIS は契約面などで最も高い透明性を持っており、あとは規模拡大を待つだけという段階にあります。 $IREN の場合、$NBIS（ネビウス）が得たような $MSFT とのハイパースケーラー契約を結べるかどうか、そしてスケール時に高い利益率を維持できるかどうかという「賭け」になります。 だからこそ、私はネビウスについて「下方リスクが最も低く、来年には 300%以上の上昇余地がある」と述べました。 一方で $IREN はリスクが大きいものの、評価額がかなり低いため、成功した場合のリターンはさらに大きくなる可能性があります。
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对比NBIS与IREN，认为NBIS因高ARR和现金储备更具优势。
两者都不错。无论选哪个都不会错。 但是，如果要在最小化风险的同时追求巨大回报，$NBIS 显然优于 $IREN。 他们的净资产超过 100 亿美元，其中 58 亿美元为现金，其余为处于超大规模扩展中的投资组合公司（如 Clickhouse）的股票。 Clickhouse 为 Anthropic 和 $META 提供基础技术。 此外，凭借与 $MSFT 的合同，其年度经常性收入（ARR）在基准情况下达到 49 亿美元。 即使增长完全停滞，其估值预计也将超过 400 亿美元。 然而，考虑到其季度营收增长率超过 1000%，我认为再获得一家超大规模云服务商的合同，其市值就有望达到 1000 亿美元。 相比之下，$IREN 以投资产能的形式存在，目前除 Poolhouse 外，没有明确的企业合同等前景。 在这方面，$NBIS 已经直接与微软、Shopify、埃森哲等政府机构和企业进行交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
Both are good. どちらを選んでも間違いではありません。 しかし、リスクを最小限に抑えつつ大きなリターンを狙うなら、$IREN よりも $NBIS が明らかに優れています。 彼らの純資産は 100 億ドル以上で、そのうち 58 億ドルが現金、残りは Clickhouse のようなハイパースケーリング中のポートフォリオ企業の株式です。 Clickhouse は Anthropic や $META を支える基盤技術を提供しています。 さらに、$MSFT との契約により、ベースケースでの年間経常収益（ARR）は 49 億ドルに達しています。 仮に成長が完全に止まったとしても、評価額は 400 億ドル以上と見込まれます。 しかし、四半期ごとの収益成長率が 1000% を超えていることを考えると、もう1件ハイパースケーラーとの契約を獲得すれば、時価総額は 1000 億ドルに達する可能性があると見ています。 一方で $IREN は、キャパシティへの投資という形になりますが、現時点では Poolhouse 以外に企業契約などの明確な見通しがありません。 その点、$NBIS はすでに Microsoft、Shopify、Accenture などの政府機関や企業と直接取引を行っています。
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建议定投NBIS，认为其当前价格被低估，维持400美元目标价。
@blu400_ 我个人建议进行成本平均法（Cost Average）买入。 即使 $NBIS 接近历史最高价（ATH），它仍在快速增长，并且每周都会创下新的历史最高价。 我维持 $400 的目标价（PT）牛市情景，因此目前 $130 的价格似乎被严重低估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@blu400_ Personally I’d cost average. Even if $NBIS is near ATH, it’s growing rapidly and it will keep having new ATHs every week. I’ve maintained $400 PT bull case, so $130 now seems quite undervalued https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx
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AI矿工股将分化，新云厂商言论显著影响市场定价。
这几乎适用于所有矿工，而不仅仅是 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这两只股票。话虽如此，我们很可能会看到资金向表现优异的个股（如 $WULF 或 $NBIS）集中，而不是所有股票同涨同跌。这就像当 $NVDA CEO 发表关于量子计算的评论后，所有量子概念股下跌了 45%。来自领先的新云厂商（Neoclouds）关于利润率与裸金属（bare metal）等话题的评论，确实会对市场如何定价产生实质性影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is almost every single miner across the board, not just two stocks $IREN and $CIFR. That being said it’s likely we’ll see people consolidate into individual performers that do well (eg. $WULF or $NBIS) rather than everything go up and down together. Also it’s like when $NVDA CEO made a comment about quantum and all quantum stocks went down 45%. Commentary about stuff like margins vs. bare metal do have material impacts on how markets price things in when it comes from the leading Neoclouds
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指出AI云与挖矿股出现早期分化，市场开始定价利润率差异。
当你提到6个月、12个月、3年时，你误解了帖子的细微差别。 帖子的要点是，我们现在看到通常同步交易的股票以及$NBIS等低贝塔股票开始出现早期分化。 本周：$NBIS: +7.25% | $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51%。 这仅仅是对分化的观察。我想指出，市场可能开始计入利润率差异。 当新云(Neocloud)领导者发布关于全栈利润率(full-stack margins)的此类帖子时，市场会有反应。
原推 ↗英文原文
You're misunderstanding the nuance of the post when you say 6 months, 12 months, 3 years. The point of the post was that we're now seeing early divergence of the names that usually trade in sync + $NBIS and others that trade lower beta. This week: $NBIS: +7.25% | $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51%. This is just an observation from about the divergence. And I wanted to point out that it's likely margin differences that the market's starting to price in. When the Neocloud leaders make posts about full-stack margins like these, markets react.
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指出AI相关股票与矿企间因利润率差异产生的早期表现分化。
我并非声称一周就能定义趋势，而是指出我们正看到早期的分化迹象：这些通常同步交易的标的，以及 $NBIS 等低贝塔(low beta)标的表现出现背离。如果你读过我提到的帖子，其中涉及 $WYFI、$APLD、$WULF、$CIFR、$BITF、$CLSK 以及广义上的“矿企(Miners)”，我并非指向某一只特定股票。这仅仅是对表现分化的一种观察。这大概是因为市场开始定价利润率差异所致。你可以自由表示不同意，这很公平。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m not claiming one week defines a trend, I’m pointing out that we're seeing early divergence where these names usually trade in sync + $NBIS and others trade lower beta. If you read the post I mentioned $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK and "Miners" in general I'm not pointing to one specific name. This is just an observation from about the divergence in performance. And it's probably due to margin differences that the market's starting to price in. You're free to disagree and that's fair.
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HPC矿企表现分化，资金从传统矿企转向新云，IREN相对抗跌。
这不仅仅是关于 $IREN，而是关乎高性能计算(HPC)矿企。如果非要比较，$IREN 的表现可能更为出色，尤其是与 $CLSK、$BITF 等其他公司相比。 例如： $NBIS: +7.25% $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51% 再次强调，这可能与比特币价格的多重因素有关。但最近很明显，它们之间出现了分化，而通常情况下它们会同向波动（如 $NBIS、$CRWV 具有较低的贝塔值）。 我会将叙事重心的变化——从利润率转向产能——作为矿企抛售以及资金整合进某些新云(Neoclouds)的原因之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
This isn't just about $IREN, it's around HPC miners. If anything IREN is probably one of the more exceptional performers, especially vs. $CLSK, $BITF, and others. EG. $NBIS: +7.25% _ $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51% Again, it's probably multi-faceted around Bitcoin prices. But it's pretty apparent as of recently, there's been divergence when normally they would move together (with $NBIS, $CRWV) lower beta. And I'd cite narrative changes around margins vs. capacity being a part of miner sell-off and consolidation into certain Neoclouds.
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市场定价重心从产能转向利润率，导致全栈云与矿企走势分化。
所以我认为你们误解了 @SathyeshBhat @midlevelcruiser 观点的细微差别。在资本市场开始关注产能建设(capacity buildout)之前，我们曾看到全线普涨。直到**最近**（上周左右），我们才开始看到 $CRWV、$NBIS 以及来自矿企的“全栈”(full-stack) Neoclouds 出现分化。它们通常会同涨同跌，且波动率(beta)较低的 Nebius 相比 $IREN 等标的波动更小。这只是评论：目前市场可能开始更多地将规模化后的利润率(margins at scale)而非单纯的产能纳入定价，我们开始看到不同板块的标的走势出现分化。随着公司高管今天发文强调全栈的重要性，这一趋势也愈发明显。但总体而言，你说得对，短期时间框架并不重要，我也并未将其作为事实依据。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I think you're missing the nuance of the point @SathyeshBhat @midlevelcruiser. Before markets cared about capacity buildout and we saw the major runup on everything across the board. Only **just recently** last week or so, we're starting to see a divergence with $CRWV, $NBIS and "full-stack" Neoclouds from miners. They would normally move up/down together, and Nebius which is lower beta than the others would move less than $IREN for example. This is just commentary that as of now, markets are possibly starting to price in margins at scale more than capacity than say 1 month ago and we're starting to see more things move in different baskets. And it's becoming more apparent too with executives from the companies pointing out why full-stack matters with posts today. But generally you're right short timeframes don't matter and I'm not using it as a fact.
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看好全栈新云$NBIS利润率优势，减持矿工股。
市场开始定价： 像 $NBIS 这样的 AWS 式全栈新云（Neocloud）与 $CIFR、$BITF、$CLSK 等矿工之间的分化。 这就是我卖出 $IREN、$WULF 等并集中持仓 Nebius 的原因。 为什么？ 💹 利润率 > ⚡️ 产能。 就在今天： Nebius 的 CTO 表示： “市场上几乎没有真正的‘新云’。所谓的新云不过是一堆裸金属服务器，上面堆砌了大量第三方软件。” 耸人听闻？完全不是——如果你认真对待“云”这个概念，而不仅仅是堆砌硬件盒子。 Danila 解释了裸金属运营商很快就会发现 Nebius 已经在大规模层面解决的那些挑战。 这正是我指出 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称上行潜力的原因，因为矿工在规模化时可能会在利润率上挣扎。 我们还看到 Nebius 联合创始人 Roman Chernin 在《福布斯》的文章中总结，AI 经济需要一种新的、全栈的、AI 原生基础设施，而不是拼凑起来的系统： “你可以从一个供应商购买机架，将它们连接起来……但从长远来看，经济性、灵活性和速度取决于你是否控制自己的全栈。” “如果你控制全栈，你就控制产品、性能和经济效益。” _ 这并不意味着像 $WYFI、$APLD、$WULF 等其他高性能计算（HPC）公司没有增长空间，新云板块才刚刚开始上涨（尤其是当我们看到 $META 或 $AMZN 的财报时）。 然而，在投机阶段，我们已经为矿工的产能建设定价——大多数已经上涨了 50–200%+。 但谈到执行层面，那些控制全栈的人将在利润率上获胜。 我们看到 $CRWV 亲自体会到了这一点，花费数十亿美元进行软件收购，利用率仍低于 $NBIS（根据白皮书）。 我们也看到一家市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云厂商（Oracle）未能建立其全栈，毛利率仅为 14%。 如果 Oracle 都无法完全整合其软件，CoreWeave 仍在花费数年时间尝试这样做，小型矿工如何转型？ “仅 Type-1”运营商的论点将艰难地发现规模化时的利润率压缩是什么样子的。 正如《福布斯》文章总结： “归根结底，如果你只是连接盒子或在无法控制的基础设施上构建服务，你在规模和效率的游戏里将受到限制。” $NBIS 今天就已经拥有全栈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are starting to price in: A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others. This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius. Why? 💹 Margins > ⚡️Capacity. Just today: The CTO of Nebius stated: “Almost no Neocloud in the market is actually a cloud. As in a bunch of baremetal with a ton of third-party software slapped on top.” Provocative? Absolutely not — if you take the term “cloud” seriously, not just as slapping on a bunch of hardware boxes. Danila explained how baremetal operators will soon discover the challenges Nebius has already solved at scale. And that’s exactly why I stated $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical upside, since miners may struggle with margins at scale. We’ve also seen a Forbes article by Nebius Co-Founder Roman Chernin, summarize how the AI economy requires a new, full-stack, AI-native infrastructure, not the stitched-together systems: “You can buy racks from one supplier, cable them together... but in the long term, economics, flexibility and speed depend on you controlling your own stack.” “If you control the stack, you control the product, the performance, and the economics.” _ This doesn’t mean there’s no room for other HPC companies like $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, and others to grow, and the Neocloud segment is just beginning its run-up (especially when we look at $META or $AMZN earnings). However, during the speculation phase, we’ve already priced in capacity buildout with miners - most are already up 50–200%+. But when it comes to execution, those who control the full stack will win on margins. We’ve seen $CRWV figure that out firsthand, spending billions on software acquisitions and still maintaining lower utilization than $NBIS (as per the whitepaper). We’ve also seen how an $800B hyperscaler (Oracle) failed to build out its stack, running at 14% gross margins. If Oracle couldn’t fully integrate its software, and CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so, how will small miners pivot? Arguments from “Type-1 only” operators will find out the hard way what margin compression at scale looks like. As the Forbes article concludes: “At the end of the day, if you’re just cabling the boxes or building service on top of infrastructure you don’t control, you’re limited in the game of scale and efficiency.” $NBIS already has that full stack today.
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Meta AI支出利好下游供应商NBIS和CRWV
@BaronAfanas 哈哈，$VIRT 表现依然落后，但很高兴看到它略有回升。 对于 $NBIS，很难不持看多态度。 人们抱怨 $META 在人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)上花太多钱，哈哈。 如果有什么影响的话，这些资金最终只是流向了像 $CRWV 和 $NBIS 这样的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BaronAfanas lol $VIRT is still underperforming but glad it’s recovering a bit. For $NBIS hard not to be bullish. People are complaining about $META spending too much on AI capex lol. If anything that money just funnels down to companies like $CRWV and $NBIS.
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看好NBIS涨至400美元，受降息利好及估值低估支撑。
@__visionxry__ 我仍然认为 $NBIS 会从 $121 涨到 $400，今天应该交易在 ~$158 左右。市场可能只是在等待财报以获取更清晰的指引，即使你可以自行估算。 Neocloud（新云）板块可能是降息的最大受益者，这也是利好因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them. Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH
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重申对新云板块整体看涨，强调NBIS的高非对称回报潜力。
@aasbadalados 我说过我对几乎所有新云(Neocloud)公司都持看涨态度，包括 $WYFI！ 我在其他帖子中提到的唯一一点是，与其他新云公司相比，像 $NBIS 这样的公司具有更高的非对称回报(asymmetrical returns)。 在这条推文中，我并没有对任何单一个股发表评论，这些都只是例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
@aasbadalados I said I’m bullish on just about almost every single Neocloud, including $WYFI! The only point I made on other posts was that some neoclouds have higher asymmetrical returns than others like $NBIS. On this post, I’m not making any single stock commentary, all were just examples
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祝贺粉丝高回报，看好NBIS受降息和季节性利好。
@accounting_ds 恭喜，年初至今(YTD) 300%+ 的回报真的令人惊叹。随着未来几个月再降息两次以及季节性顺风，对 $NBIS 应该非常有利。 是的，如果现在的策略有效就继续做下去，没有理由改变。
原推 ↗英文原文
@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS. Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.
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点评GLXY等标的表现，IREN遭降级，CIFR与CRWV表现良好。
@mikelfilko 是的，$GLXY、$NBIS 和 $WLAC 是一组不错的标的。我认为只有 $IREN 的投资者对今天的双重降级感到有些意外，但其余标的表现良好，例如 $CIFR 获得升级，$CRWV 获得美国政府合同。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mikelfilko Yeah $GLXY, $NBIS, and $WLAC are a good bunch. I think only $IREN investors were in a bit of a surprise with the double downgrade today but the rest are performing well like $CIFR got upgraded and $CRWV US gov contracts.
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澄清Neocloud持仓集中于NBIS和WLAC，并指出其他板块亦有动量机会。
@mikelfilko 当然，我目前的 Neocloud 持仓主要集中在 $NBIS 和 $WLAC 上。 其他人可能有不同的持仓，我上面列出的只是例子，并非我个人的全部操作。每个板块以及许多其他具有动量的板块中还有更多机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mikelfilko Of course, my Neocloud positions are concentrated in $NBIS and $WLAC right now. People can have others, I just listed examples above, not what I personally did. There's a lot more out there for each sector and many other sectors that have momentum.
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建议小资金集中成长股，大资金降风险，首选$NBIS。
@accounting_ds 所以这取决于你的投资组合规模。规模越小，我越鼓励你在成长股上集中持仓。当规模变大时，即使存在非对称上行空间，也没有理由承担那么多风险。但如果你要集中持仓，$NBIS 可能是最好的选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
@accounting_ds So it depends on your portfolio size. The smaller it is, the more I'd encourage concentration in growth. When you get to larger sizes, there's no reason to take that much risk, even if there's asymmetrical upside. But if you're doing concentration $NBIS is probably the best
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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强调HPC矿企执行风险与利润率，解释为何选择$NBIS。
再次强调，这并非针对 $BITF 或 $CLSK 等矿企的看空帖子。我在主题上对 Neoclouds 极度看好，并对 $WULF 或 $IREN 等特定矿企持看涨态度。但喜欢它们并不意味着我应该持有所有相关标的。 这是一篇关于执行风险和选择性的细致分析，因为并非每家从事高性能计算(HPC)的矿企/公司都能成功。 我特别指的是在规模化时的利润率，涉及的是 HPC 业务板块，而非比特币(BTC)挖矿或储备（如果你了解我的历史，知道我对后者也极度看好）。 除了解释我个人为何选择 $NBIS 外，我并不支持或反对任何特定的矿企。我相信该领域还会有像 $WULF 这样的其他赢家。 我只是在强调执行风险，并指出人们看待这些公司的视角（关注兆瓦级建设而非考虑利润率）可能是错误的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again this is not a bear post on miners like $BITF or $CLSK. I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN. Just because I like them doesn't mean I should own them all. This is a nuanced post on execution risk and selectivity as not every single miner/company that does HPC will succeed. I'm specifically talking about HPC segments when it comes to margins at scale, not BTC mining or reserves (which I am also super bullish on if you know my history). I'm also not arguing for or against any specific miner aside from explaining why I personally chose $NBIS. I'm sure there will be other winners like $WULF in the space too. I'm simply highlighting execution risk and pointing out that the lens people are looking at the companies (MW buildout instead of considering margins) might be wrong.
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建议观望，认为NBIS相对未来潜力严重低估。
@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 我个人会选择观望等待，我认为 $NBIS 相对于其未来潜力而言被严重低估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 I’d personally wait it out, I think $NBIS is way undervalued relative to forward potential
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博主回应争议，拒绝人身攻击，呼吁就 $NBIS 进行理性量化讨论。
再次说明，请告诉我你对 $NBIS 提出的具体量化论点，我很乐意现在就与你讨论。如果你不知道，之前与 @FransBakker9812 的第一次交流演变成了“我的年初至今(YTD)收益比你高，所以离开这个平台”，如果你试图将 Nebius 与社会主义政权进行比较，那也没什么好说的。至于与 @Agrippa_Inv 的情况，则演变成了单方面的个人攻击或引战行为，比如从“文盲”到“我赢了”、“被喷了”、“闭嘴”，而不是进行讨论。如果任何人愿意本着诚意就当前话题进行讨论，而不是进行人身攻击，我很乐意与他们进一步交流。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again let me know what specific quantitative argument you're making against $NBIS and I'm happy to discuss them with you now. If you're not aware, the first exchange with @FransBakker9812 devolved into "My YTD is better than yours so quit this platform” and there's nothing much to say if you try comparing Nebius to socialist regimes. In the case with @Agrippa_Inv, it devolved into one-sided personal attacks or engagement bait like "illiterate" to "I WIN", "GET ROASTED", "SHUT YOU UP" rather than discussion. I'm happy to engage more with anyone if they want to come in with good faith and discuss the topic at hand rather than attacking character.
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博主回应质疑，指出对方缺乏定量论据，仅以性格攻击和拖延回应。
@jarad1821 我很乐意现在就回应关于 $IREN 或 $NBIS 的任何观点。但到目前为止，你还没有给出任何定量论据供我反驳。你所做的只是以“过度自信”等性格特征为由说我的论点错误，然后默认“几年后再见”。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jarad1821 I'm happy to address any points about $IREN or $NBIS now. But so far you haven't given a single quantitative argument to respond to. All you've done was say my thesis is wrong because of character traits such as "overconfidence", then default to "come back in a few years"
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回应质疑，要求对方就NBIS提出量化论点而非人身攻击。
@jarad1821 如果你想在这里提出关于 $NBIS 的量化论点，我很乐意回应。否则，通过“过度自信”和“自我归因”等人身攻击来否定投资逻辑是站不住脚的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jarad1821 If you'd like to put up a quantitative argument about $NBIS here, I'm happy to respond. Otherwise, projection through personal attacks like "overconfidence" and "self attribution" to dismiss a thesis doesn't hold up.
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持有能源股中期看涨，并将矿工股利润轮动至NBIS。
是的，$FLNC、$SEI 和 $TE 都是数据中心建设扩张的受益者。除了其他持仓外，我在 T1 Energy 的看涨期权上目前亏损约 30%，这主要受其 7000 万美元稀释消息的影响，但由于这是一个不错的能源板块一篮子投资，我打算再持有一段时间。 近期许多新闻对能源板块来说也是极度看涨（omega bullish），因此我很乐意中期持有。 特别是考虑到特朗普在 Quantum、关键矿产以及可能是美国本土制造的能源如 $TE 中持有股份。 我个人刚刚将矿工股（miners）的利润转移，进行了向新云（neocloud）板块的轮动，买入 $NBIS，不涉及其他细分领域。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah so $FLNC, $SEI, $TE are beneficiaries of data center buildout. Aside from the others, I'm actually down right now ~30% on T1 Energy calls though after the $70M dilution news, but holding a bit longer since it's a decent segment basket for energy. Lot of the recent news is omega bullish too for energy so happy mid term hold. Especially with Trump taking stakes in Quantum, Critical Minerals, and possibly American made energy like $TE. I personally just moved profits from miners -> neocloud sector rotation into $NBIS, not other segments.
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作者认为NBIS风险收益比优于IREN，但承认IREN具高投机潜力。
嗯，我仍然坚持认为 $NBIS 具有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)，与 $IREN 相比，其下行风险更低，上行空间更大。这得益于其现有的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)合约、随客户同步扩张的子公司，以及拥有全栈(full-stack)能力的更高利润率业务。 另一方面，我同意 $IREN 因其产能和基础设施而具有极高的投机性上行空间。 我曾同时持有这两只股票，同时持有两者也没问题，但我认为在矿企股价上涨后，Nebius 的风险收益比(risk-reward)更好。 讨论这些观点很好！
原推 ↗英文原文
Hmm, I still maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return, with lower downside, high upside compared to $IREN with existing hyperscaler deals, subsidiaries scaling alongside them, and a higher margin business with full-stack. On the other hand, I'd agree $IREN has a high speculative upside due to capacity and infrastructure. I've owned both and it's fine have both, I just think risk-reward is better for Nebius after the runup on miners. It's good to discuss those points!
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建议忽略可疑交易，聚焦微软等大客户合同及NBIS等核心标的。
@adenois @RJCcapital 是的，我可能错了，股价可能会随机拉出一根100%的大阳线，但下次还是应该相信我对那笔与某家东南亚随机公司达成的14亿美元交易的直觉判断。 关注超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）如 $MSFT 类型的合同，并专注于 $NBIS 及其同行要安全得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@adenois @RJCcapital Yeah I could be wrong and the stock pulls a random 100% green candle but should just trust my gut about the $1.4B deal with a random SEA company next time. Lot safer to look at hyperscaler $MSFT type contracts and just focus on $NBIS and co.
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回顾NBIS反弹，分析TGT分红前策略及LTC受政府停摆影响的ETF进展。
我最近一直在发关于 $NBIS 的帖子，因为那30%的跌幅，导致我有一阵子忘了聊其他股票！跌到 $94 时的上行空间简直惊人，即使你没抓到真正的底部。 我之前提到的 $LTC 到 $TGT 的短期催化剂帖子依然有效，因为有人问起。 $TGT 11月12日的分红催化剂，我个人会持有，但由于它已经在28%-32%的隐含波动率下上涨了8%+，考虑到财报日(ER)是11月19日，再持有两周或稍微减仓我都觉得没问题。随你决定。 对于 $LTC 和其他股票，策略仍在进行中，只需等待政府停摆结束以及ETF获批。 我只是没料到政府停摆会持续一个月，所以ETF被延迟了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been posting about $NBIS recently because of the 30% drop that I forgot to talk about other stocks for awhile! Upside on the drop to $94 was insane, even if you didn't catch the true bottom. Near term catalyst posts that I mentioned still stands for $LTC to $TGT since others ask about it. $TGT Nov 12th dividend catalyst, I'd personally hold but since it already went up 8%+ on 28%-32% IV, I don't see many issues holding another 2 weeks since ER is Nov 19th or just trimming some. Up to you. For $LTC and others, the play is still ongoing, just need to wait for government shutdown to finish and for the ETF to be approved. I just did not expect a 1 month government shutdown so ETFs got delayed.
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展示Neocloud板块个股一个月涨幅，重申看好并集中持仓NBIS。
Neocloud（新云）的投资逻辑经受住了时间的考验。 一个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这仅仅是史上最大规模AI数据中心建设浪潮的开始，金融圈(X)上的所有人现在入场都还为时过早。 我对整个Neocloud板块非常看好，但个人因$NBIS具有最高的非对称回报潜力而集中持仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) This is only the beginning of the largest AI data center buildout in history and everyone on finx is still early. I'm very bullish on the Neocloud sector across the board, but personally have concentration in $NBIS due to the highest asymmetrical return.
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博主发帖后，NBIS等股票出现罕见反向波动。
@RJCcapital 短期股价意义不大，但看到通常低贝塔值（且与矿企正相关）的 $NBIS 在我发帖后首次反向波动，这很有趣。 $NBIS: +7.71% $CIFR: -1.21% $BITF: -2.21% $IREN: +2.35% $WULF: +0.08%
原推 ↗英文原文
@RJCcapital Short term stock price don't mean much but it is pretty interesting seeing $NBIS that's usually lower beta (and miners that go up in correlation) start to move in reverse for the first time after my post $NBIS: +7.71% $CIFR: -1.21% $BITF: - 2.21% $IREN: +2.35% $WULF: +.08%
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反驳IREN支持者，指出其拥有模式虚高毛利，NBIS租赁模式调整后利润率更优。
所以当讨论转向人身攻击时，可能意味着你的论点站不住脚。 大喊“我赢了”、“被喷了”、“闭嘴”，并进行诸如“财务文盲”之类的人身攻击以乞求 $IREN 受众的点赞，在关心实质内容的独立思考者看来并不光彩。 但既然你并非善意讨论，我就此收尾：你曲解了成本结构，且未对利润率进行标准化处理。 仅看你的陈述：“$IREN 支付的折旧微乎其微，几乎不影响利润率。”然后将其与财报数据（2025财年 -1.81亿美元）对比，一切不言自明。 但我再次把这段话放这里供你重读： “计入费用确认、折旧摊销(D&A)及其他 overhead 后，$IREN 的利润率可能降至60%以下。 $IREN 拥有数据中心，将巨额基础设施成本（服务器、机架、设施）计入资产负债表，随后通过折旧摊销(D&A)计入运营支出(OpEx)，从而虚高了92%的毛利率数字。 $NBIS 租赁容量，因此同样的成本作为租金、电力和带宽出现在销售成本(COGS)中，完全成本约为71.2%，但正如你所说，部分基础设施计入了运营支出。 $NBIS 的20-F文件指出：‘销售成本主要包括数据中心设施的运营和托管成本，以及数据中心内的电力、公用事业和维护成本……’ 如果你将 $IREN 的季度折旧摊销（约7520万美元）和基础设施 overhead 重新分配到销售成本中，$NBIS 以更高的完全加载利润率表现更优。"
原推 ↗英文原文
So when a discussion shifts to personal attacks, it probably means your thesis is not holding up. Screaming "I WIN", "GET ROASTED", "SHUT YOU UP" and going into personal attacks like "financially illiterate" to beg for $IREN audience likes doesn't look too good to independent thinkers who care about substance. But just to close it out since you're not discussing in good faith, you're misrepresenting the cost structure and not normalizing margins. Just looking at your statements like "The depreciation $IREN pays is so minuscule that it hardly impacts margins at all." and then just comparing it to the financial reports like (-$181M FY 2025) says it all. But I'll just drop this here again for you to re-read: "With expense recognition and with D&A and other overhead, $IREN margins can drop below 60%. For $IREN owning datacenters pushes massive infrastructure costs (servers, racks, facilities) into the balance sheet and later into OpEx (via D&A), inflating that 92% gross margin number. $NBIS leases capacity, so those same costs appear in COGS, as rent, power, and bandwidth to a fuller cst 71.2%., but as you mentioned some infra goes into opex. NBIS’s 20-F:" Cost of revenues primarily consists of costs of operation and co-location of data center facilities, the electricity, utility and maintenance costs in data centers…” If you reallocate IREN’s quarterly D&A (~$75.2 M), infra overhead into cost of revenue, $NBIS outperforms with a more fully loaded margin."
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指出比较IREN与NBIS毛利率需标准化，调整后NBIS表现更优。
你在尝试比较两个结构上截然不同的事物时误解了数据，且未对毛利率进行标准化处理。尽管遭受人身攻击，我仍在回复，因为这会误导他人。考虑到费用确认、折旧与摊销(D&A)及其他 overhead，$IREN 的利润率可能降至 60% 以下。$IREN 拥有数据中心，将大量基础设施成本（服务器、机架、设施）计入资产负债表，随后通过 D&A 计入运营支出(OpEx)，从而虚高了 92% 的毛利率数字。$NBIS 租赁容量，因此同样的成本作为租金、电力和带宽出现在销售成本(COGS)中，完全成本约为 71.2%，但正如你所说，部分基础设施计入了运营支出。$NBIS 的 20-F 文件指出：“收入成本主要包括数据中心设施的运营和托管成本，以及数据中心内的电力、公用事业和维护成本……”如果你将 $IREN 的季度 D&A（约 7520 万美元）和基础设施 overhead 重新分配到收入成本中，$NBIS 在更全面的利润率下表现更优。这是基于你的数据，尽管他们此前有过非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)分部披露。因此，声称 $IREN 93% 的毛利率并与 $NBIS 71% 的毛利率进行比较是没有意义的，因为必须对毛利率进行标准化处理。
原推 ↗英文原文
You're misunderstanding the data while trying to compare two structurally different things as gross profit before normalizing it. Reason I'm still replying despite personal attacks now is because this is misleading other people. With expense recognition and with D&A and other overhead, $IREN margins can drop below 60%. For $IREN owning datacenters pushes massive infrastructure costs (servers, racks, facilities) into the balance sheet and later into OpEx (via D&A), inflating that 92% gross margin number. $NBIS leases capacity, so those same costs appear in COGS, as rent, power, and bandwidth to a fuller cst 71.2%., but as you mentioned some infra goes into opex. NBIS’s 20-F: “Cost of revenues primarily consists of costs of operation and co-location of data center facilities, the electricity, utility and maintenance costs in data centers…” If you reallocate IREN’s quarterly D&A (~$75.2 M), infra overhead into cost of revenue, $NBIS outperforms with a more fully loaded margin. This is going off your data, even though they've had nongaap segment disclosures before. So trying to claim $IREN 93% gross margins and then comparing it to $NBIS 71% doesnt make sense, when you have to normalize gross margins.
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看好新云板块，认为NBIS因软件栈具备最佳风险收益比。
我对新云（Neoclouds）持看涨态度，包括 $IREN。查看我的发帖历史，我曾持有包括 $WULF、$CIFR 等在内的各种头寸。我唯一的观点是，$NBIS 因其软件栈（Software Stack）而拥有最高的非对称回报（风险最低，上行空间最大）。 https://t.co/TnUqmvvFdd
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm bullish on Neoclouds, including $IREN. If you look at my post history, I've had positions in everything including $WULF, $CIFR, etc. The only point I've made was $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return (lowest risk, highest upside) because of its software stack. https://t.co/TnUqmvvFdd
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反驳IREN论点，指出NBIS全栈软件优势带来长期更高利润率。
观点很棒！但是…… 你的论点基于对公认会计准则(GAAP)与非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)的误解……这可能会让非会计专业人士和 X 上的其他人感到困惑。 在对比硬件部门利润与全栈 AWS 利润率时，$IREN 报告的是非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)，而 $NBIS 报告的是公认会计准则(GAAP)。 92% 是一个非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)的硬件特定利润指标，它系统地排除了折旧、数据中心 overhead、网络费用、支持等。硬件利润率通常仅通过从收入中扣除直接电力成本来计算，忽略了真实公认会计准则(GAAP) 销售成本(COGS) 的组成部分。在报告时，销售成本(COGS) 的遗漏和会计原则很重要（例如，为什么加密公司如 $MSTR 的数字与像 ASU 2023-08 这样的加密报告如此不同，因此你不能将收入与加密持仓与 Robinhood 进行比较）。 与此同时，$NBIS 71.2% 的毛利率是公认会计准则(GAAP)，并将托管费用(colocation fees) 作为 29% 收入成本的一部分。因此，当你查看 EBIT 利润率以获得全貌时，$NBIS (~30%) 要高得多，因为全栈驱动了盈利能力。当 $IREN 扩展到 5 亿美元 ARR 目标时，他们被迫纳入现实的折旧、数据中心成本、网络费用和运营。如果以一致的会计标准对两者进行标准化，$NBIS 的全栈模型在真实利润率 spread 上已经高出 15-25 个百分点。 你说超大规模客户自带 Type-1 堆栈是对的。但是……我再次对其他 $IREN 帖子说过这一点，它们一直在回避这个点。 再说一次，Nebius 的 Type-2 层不是面向客户的功能，而是优化内部运营支出(OPEX)。如果企业自带 Type 1 (K8s/Ray)，Nebius 的内部编排(Type 2) 仍然能提升其自身的利润率。这是运营支出(OPEX) 护城河，它不是客户使用的，而是关于你运行集群的效率。把它想象成 AWS 的 Nitro 虚拟机监控程序，但核心在于 AWS 如何驱动 >80% 的利用率和最小的人工运营。Nebius 的内部控制平面自动化了混合 SKU 的 GPU 调度、遥测和固件生命周期。每增加一个百分点的利用率，毛利率就扩张约 1-1.5 个百分点。Nebius 的内部编排降低了其运营成本基础并提高了利用率，无论客户是否自带堆栈，所以这不是非此即彼的关系。 长期的利用率效率和自动化复利增长快于廉价电力/容量，$NBIS 的全栈在长期驱动更高的利润率，而其他方面临利润率压缩的恶性竞争。随着 $NBIS 扩展，其软件熟练度的增量成本趋近于零，结构性地推动利润率更高。相反，$IREN 的依赖模式意味着随着扩展，许可费（如果你采用你的数字，为收入的 3-8%）加上必要的、未量化的站点可靠性工程师(SRE) 运营成本将成为盈利能力的永久拖累，阻止公司实现 $NBIS 的结构性利润率上限。外包 Type 2 解决方案的许可成本很低，如你的 3-8% 数字，但当被视为 overhead 时，“20-30%” 的数字非常相关。 回到 GAAP-non-GAAP，一旦 $IREN 在规模上被迫确认完整的公认会计准则(GAAP) 成本，与 $NBIS 相比不可避免的 15-30 个百分点的利润率差异将会显现。我同意你，短期的容量和基础设施是今天的一大优势，这就是为什么我仍然看好转型的加密货币矿工如 $IREN、$WULF、$CIFR，但在执行期间的软件护城河，在将收入转化为利润的长期来看，将大大优于裸金属基础设施（这还假设 $NBIS 无法扩展基础设施，而他们是可以的）。 $IREN 当前的优势是物理集成和廉价容量，它是资本支出(capex) 密集型的，并受制于电力市场收紧。$NBIS 的优势是运营支出(OPEX) 杠杆。$NBIS 更高的利润率是几年后基于全栈 AWS 式利润率的必然经济结果，而当其他人竞相触底时，利润率差异不会崩溃，而是随着规模扩大而扩大。 廉价电力赢得下一个季度，高效的编排成为下一个 AWS。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great points! But... You did base your thesis off misunderstanding gaap vs. non-gaap... which could be confusing to non-accountants and other people on X. $IREN reported non-GAAP and $NBIS GAAP when you look at hardware-segment profit to full-stack AWS margins. The 92% percent was non-GAAP, hardware-specific profit metric that systematically excludes depreciation, data-center overhead, network expenses, support, etc. Hardware Profit Margin is typically calculated solely by deducting direct electricity costs from revenue, ignoring the components of true COGS GAAP. And when you do reporting, COGS omissions and accounting principles matter (eg. why crypto firms have like $MSTR wildly different numbers from crypto reporting like ASU 2023-08, so you don’t compare revenue with crypto holdings to Robinhood). Meanwhile $NBIS 71.2% gross margins was GAAP and includes colocation fees as part of 29% cost of revenue. So when you look into EBIT margins for the full picture, $NBIS (~30%) is vastly higher because full stack drives profitability. When $IREN scales to the $500M ARR target, they’re forced to incorporate realistic deprecation, data center costs, network expenses, and operations. If you normalize both under consistent accounting, $NBIS’s full-stack model already operates 15–25 points higher in true margin spread. You’re right that hyperscale clients bring their own Type-1 stack. BUT... I’ve said this again to other $IREN posts that keep side-stepping this point. Once again, Nebius’s Type-2 layer isn't for customer-facing features, it’s optimizing internal OPEX. If enterprises bring their own Type 1 (K8s/Ray), Nebius's internal orchestration (Type 2) still drives its own margins up. That's OPEX moat, it's not what customers use, it's about how efficiently you run the fleet. Think of it like AWS’s Nitro hypervisor but central to how AWS drives >80% utilization and minimal human ops. Nebius’s in-house control plane automates GPU scheduling, telemetry, and firmware lifecycles across mixed SKUs. Every percentage point of utilization is ~1-1.5 points of gross margin expansion. Nebius's in-house orchestration lowers their operating cost base and increases utilization, regardless of whether customers bring their own stack, so it’s not quite one or the other. Long-term utilization efficiency and automation compound faster than cheap power/capacity and $NBIS full stack drives higher margins long term, while others face margin compression on a race to the ground. As $NBIS scales, the incremental cost of their software proficiency approaches zero, structurally driving margins higher. Conversely, $IREN's dependency model means that as they scale, the licensing fees (3–8% of revenue if you we go with your figure) plus the necessary, unquantified SRE operational costs will remain a permanent drag on profitability, preventing the firm from achieving $NBIS's structural margin ceiling longer on. Licensing costs for outsourced Type 2 solutions are low like your 3-8% figure, but the "20–30%" figure is highly relevant when viewed as overhead. .Going back to GAAP-non-gaap, once $IREN is forced to recognize full GAAP costs at scale, the inevitable 15–30 point margin delta against $NBIS will materialize. I’d agree with you that short-term capacity and infrastructure is a great advantage today, which is why I’m still bullish crypto miners pivoting like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, but the software moat during execution, would vastly outperform bare mental infrastructure in the longer term when it comes to converting revenue to profit (and this is pretending $NBIS can’t scale up infra, which they can). $IREN current advantage is physical integration and cheap capacity, it’s capex-heavy, and subject to power-market tightening. $NBIS advantage is OPEX leverage. $NBIS higher margins is an economic inevitability in a years time when rooted in full stack AWS-like margins, while margin delta isn't collapsing as others race to the bottom, it's widening as scale hits. Cheap power wins next quarter, efficient orchestration becomes the next AWS.
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因软件护城河优势，Nebius具最高上行空间，仍看多矿企HPC转型。
这是关于高性能计算(HPC)而非比特币挖矿…… 再次总结一下，核心观点是：由于中间件的存在，矿企的利润率将永远低于 $NBIS。 而摆脱对 $CRWV 等中间件的依赖是一个极高的护城河（关注 $ORCL）。 如果深入看数据，软件栈的价值 > 算力容量，因为软件收入转化为利润的效率远高于高营收但低利润的模式（如 ORCL）。 这就是为什么 Nebius 拥有最高的非对称上行空间。我仍然看多所有从事 HPC 的加密货币矿企。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is about HPC not bitcoin mining… Just to summarize again, the point was miner margins will always be less than $NBIS because of middleware. And how the transition off of middleware like $CRWV is an incredibly high moat (looking at $ORCL). And if we go into the numbers, software stack > capacity due to how revenue translates more into profit vs. high revenue and no profit (ORCL) That’s why Nebius has highest asymmetrical upside. I’m still bullish every crypto miner HPC
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反驳NBIS利润率误解，指出软件优势才是高毛利关键。
那是不对的，$NBIS 的利润率包含了托管费(colocation fees)，且成本已反映在29%的营收成本(cost of revenue)中。 $IREN 也拥有站点，但这并未使其相比 $NBIS 获得显著的利润率优势。你没读到的是，软件（编排、利用率）以及无收入分成（Fluidstack、Poolside）才是推动更高利润率的关键。 声称聪明人不再权衡容量与利润率之间的取舍，是我见过最愚蠢的观点，恭喜。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s not true, $NBIS margins include colo fees and the costs are reflected in the 29% cost of revenue. $IREN owns the sites too, but it doesn’t give much of a margin advantage over $NBIS. Thing you didn’t read was software (orchestration, utilization) and no revenue margin cut (fluidstack, poolside), drives higher margins. Saying intelligent people stopped comparing tradeoffs between capacity and margins is the dumbest take I’ve seen so far, congrats.
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对比IREN与NBIS模式，指出矿工自建HPC堆栈难敌全栈合作优势。
$IREN 在加密货币挖矿方面拥有良好的利润率和高吉瓦(GW)容量，但这并不能直接转化为高性能计算(HPC)优势。 与此同时，他们正采取 $CIFR 和 $WULF 的路径，通过中间件编排将业务导向超大规模云服务商，但这会在长期内大幅压缩利润率。 $NBIS 直接与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，实际上可以随着时间的推移提高其毛利率。 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为小型转型的案例，但最近我们学到的残酷现实是，如果许多矿工试图建立自己的编排和堆栈，他们很可能会失败。 $ORCL 是软件护城河的完美例子：如果一个市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商都感到困难，那么一个市值 40 亿美元的比特币矿工，或者像 $SLNH 这样市值 1 亿美元的微盘股，又该如何转型呢？ 如果他们选择直接转型，许多人在估算比特币矿工基本面时参考 $CRWV 将吉瓦(GW)转化为收入/利润的方式，但实际回报在执行过程中可能会令人失望。 Nebius 从一开始就是第一名，甚至在 GPU 利用率上超越了 $CRWV（根据其最新的白皮书），其全栈带来的长期盈利能力将在财报中胜过投机。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN has good margins for crypto mining and large GW capacity but that doesn’t translate directly into HPC. They’re going the $CIFR $WULF route in the meantime with middleware orchestration funneling to hyper scalers but that cuts into margins a lot in the long run. $NBIS is direct to $MSFT full stack and can actually increase their gross margins over time. Everyone points to $CRWV as the example to minor pivots but the harsh reality as we learned recently is that if many miners try building their own orchestration and stack, they will likely fail. $ORCL is the perfect example of the software moat where if a $800B hyperscaler has trouble how would a $4B bitcoin miner pivot, or a $100m microcap like $SLNH do it. If they go direct, a lot of people estimating bitcoin miner fundamentals use $CRWV in terms of translating GW to revenue/profit, but the actual returns will likely be underwhelming during the execution. Nebius is #1 from the very start, even beating out $CRWV (from their most recent whitepaper with gpu utilization) and long term profitability from full stack will shine when it comes to earnings vs speculation.
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看好Neoclouds板块，认为利润率比容量更重要，首选NBIS。
谢谢，只是想补充一下，我对从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的整个 Neoclouds 板块依然看好。短期内，由于围绕算力容量(capacity)的叙事，可能会有更高的上行空间，但我预计在执行和财报季到来时，市场会更关注利润率(margins)。就纯粹的不对称上行潜力而言，$NBIS 是显而易见的赢家，因为其运营侧拥有毛利率护城河（如果不是因为利息债务，$CRWV 也会名列前茅）。我在帖子中添加了一些定量数据，展示为何利润率 > 容量和/或中间件(middleware)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, just wanted to add I'm still bullish on Neoclouds across the board from $IREN to $CIFR. Short term there might be higher upside due to narratives around capacity but I'd expect markets to care about margins more when it comes time to execution + earning reports. In terms of raw asymmetrical upside, $NBIS is the obvious winner due to gross margin moat on their operational side ( $CRWV would have been up there if it weren't for interest debt). And I added some quantitative data in the post showing why margins > capacity and/or middleware.
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估值逻辑转向利润率，$NBIS 运营优势显著且上行空间大
我想指出一个新的估值逻辑正在转变：从对电力容量的炒作转向利润率，这源于 $NBIS 最近的白皮书、$ORCL 的利润率泄露以及其他信息。人们只是假设吉瓦(GW)等于矿工(miners)的利润，但在未来的盈利能力和执行力方面，当矿工发现利润率低于预期时，我认为针对矿工的投机情绪会大幅消退。我只是想做一个核心运营层面的对比，在这方面 $NBIS 显然脱颖而出。此外，正如你提到的，他们还拥有很好的子公司+超大规模公司(hyperscaling companies)投资组合，我未将其纳入计算，但这将带来更高的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just wanted to point out a new valuation thesis shifting from power capacity hype to margins due to new information from $NBIS recent whitepaper, $ORCL margin leak, and others. People just assume GW = profit with miners, but in terms of profitability and execution in the future, I'd expect the speculation to die down hard with miners when they find out margins are lower than expected. I just wanted to do the core operational side comparison, which $NBIS clearly stands out on top. On top of that, as you mentioned, they also have a great portfolio of subsidaries + hyperscaling companies too that I didn't add in that would lead to a higher upside.
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作者认为NBIS全栈软件优势带来高毛利，优于IREN等矿企，故重仓NBIS。
为了解决关于新云（Neocloud）的争论： $NBIS > $IREN 及其他。 基于 $ORCL 的报告、NBIS 白皮书、$CRWV 的收购案以及其他因素， 我决定将数百万资金整合进 Nebius，并清仓像 $CIFR 这样的矿企。 📏 毛利率 > 吉瓦（GW）产能 以下是数学逻辑及原因： 此前，由远期收入支撑的新云板块（例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的 190 亿美元交易）经历了巨大的投机性上涨。 然而，由于原始 GW 产能（如 $IREN）和廉价能源，加密货币矿企近期上涨了 500%+。 然而，人们忽略的是，产能虽能带来更高的收入，但如果不可盈利（例如 $ORCL 14% 的毛利率），这些收入毫无意义。 随着更多关于 $ORCL 建设失败、$NBIS 白皮书等的信息公布，我们得知如果经济模型无法转化，电力和产能意义不大。 而 $NBIS 拥有一切优势。 1. 毛利率差距：全栈 vs 中间件 像 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这样的矿企必须依赖编排合作伙伴（Fluidstack、Poolside 等）来变现其 GPU。这意味着要放弃 20-30% 的收入（~来自深度研究的私人估算），并承担 GPU 折旧、电力和运维成本。结果是？ 在 $3-4/小时 的 GPU 定价和 ~80% 利用率下，IREN/CIFR 的毛利率 = ~44-52% 在 $5-6/小时 和 90% 利用率下，毛利率可能达到 ~55-60%，但这已是天花板。 与此同时，Nebius 通过拥有编排层并分摊 4 年成本，目前获得 70-75% 的毛利率（上一季度为 71.2%，可能为 60-70%，近期白皮书声称更高的 GPU 利用率可能使其更高）。 随着规模和利用率的提高，这一差距会复利扩大。 矿企每赚一美元都要分出一部分，而 Nebius 的毛利率随时间增加。 2. 软件是护城河，Oracle 证明了这一点 即使 $ORCL 这样市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商，也无法盈利地构建 GPU 编排，其 AI 租赁平台报告约 14% 的毛利率，并在此过程中亏损约 1 亿美元。 如果 Oracle 都无法执行，指望市值 1 亿美元的小型矿企如 $SLNH 从头构建超大规模云级别的编排系统只是痴人说梦。 像 Fluidstack 这样的平台是必要的桥梁，但代价高昂：毛利率压缩、收入流失和平台依赖。 Nebius？它已经完成了最难的部分。其内部编排软件、GPU 利用率，没有中间商赚差价。 3. 电力 vs 毛利率计算 单张 H100 功耗约 0.7-0.84 kW。即使在 $0.10/kWh 的电价下，每张 GPU 每小时的电费仅为 $0.07-0.08。当 GPU 以 $4-6/小时 出租时，这仅占收入的 1-2%。 真正影响大局的是什么？利用率： 50% -> 85% 的正常运行时间 = 每张 GPU 收入增加 70% 这是数百个基点的毛利率波动，远超与矿企相比的“廉价电力”优势。 软件利用率/编排是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高 30-70 倍。而且 $NBIS 也不缺廉价电力 lol。 4. 矿企中的 CRWV 例外 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为矿企转型的案例，但 Coreweave 实际上花了数年时间，并进行了数十亿美元的软件收购。 即使现在，报道显示其利用率仍落后于 Nebius。如果矿企认为他们能复制 CRWV，祝他们好运。 我预计 $NBIS 在明年的财报中，当执行与投机面临检验时，将大幅跑赢。 🧩 非对称性 Nebius 毛利率：70-75%（全栈，4 年折旧） IREN/CIFR 现实毛利率：40-60%（中间件，2-3 年折旧） 毛利率差额：15-30 个百分点 执行风险：Nebius = 0（已在执行）；IREN/CIFR = 高 Nebius 不是电力博弈。它是软件毛利率博弈，带有硬件上行空间。对于 $IREN 等，你是在猜测它能否像 $CRWV 那样成功。 人们不断说“软件不是护城河，看看 $CRWV 对 $IREN 未来 HPC 毛利率的影响”，但如果 $ORCL 这样最大的超大规模云服务商之一都卡在 14% 的毛利率。那么我们怎么指望这些小加密货币矿企能搞定 Coreweave。 就非对称性更新而言，$NBIS 是明确的赢家。就原始潜在上行空间而言，如果 $IREN 能像变魔术一样搞定 $CRWV 并在此方面击败 $ORCL，那我确实会认输。 软件全栈是一个巨大的护城河，人们严重低估了它。对于 $NBIS，他们可以只是即插即用，随着时间推移扩大规模，拥有行业内最高的毛利率。 $NBIS 就是真正的非对称回报的样子。
原推 ↗英文原文
To settle the Neocloud debate: $NBIS > $IREN + others. Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper, $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors, I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR. 📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity Here's the math + why: We've had a huge speculative run across the board on Neoclouds backed by forward revenue (eg. 19B $MSFT deal with $NBIS). However, crypto miners have recently gone up 500%+ due to raw GW capacity like $IREN and cheap energy. However, what people miss out on is capacity leads to much higher revenue but that revenue means nothing if it's not profitable (eg. $ORCL 14% gross margins). Now that more information has come out regarding $ORCL's buildout failure, $NBIS's whitepaper, and others, we know power and capacity mean little if the economics don’t translate. And $NBIS has everything. 1. The Margin Gap: Full Stack vs. Middleware Miners like $IREN and $CIFR must rely on orchestration partners (Fluidstack, Poolside, etc.) to monetize their GPUs. That means giving up 20–30% of revenue (~private estimates from deep research), plus absorbing GPU depreciation, power, and O&M. The result? At $3–4/hr GPU pricing and ~80% utilization, IREN/CIFR margin = ~44–52% At $5–6/hr and 90% utilization, margin could reach ~55–60%, but that’s the ceiling Meanwhile, Nebius earns 70–75% today by owning the orchestration layer and amortizing over 4 years (71.2% from previous Q, likely 60-70%, possibly higher from recent whitepaper claiming higher GPU utilizations). This gap compounds as scale and utilization rise. Miners give away a piece of every dollar they earn while Nebius INCREASES gross margins over time. 2. Software Is the Moat and Oracle Proved It Even $ORCL, an $800B hyperscaler, failed at building GPU orchestration profitably, reporting ~14% gross margins on their AI rental platform and losing ~$100M in the process. If Oracle can’t execute, expecting $100M marketcap small miners like $SLNH to build hyperscaler-grade orchestration from scratch is wishful thinking. Platforms like Fluidstack are essential bridges, but they come at a cost: margin compression, revenue leakage, and platform dependency. Nebius? It already did the hard part. Its in-house orchestration software, GPU utilization, with no middlemen taking a cut. 3. Power vs. Margin Calculations A single H100 uses ~0.7–0.84 kW. Even at $0.10/kWh, power is just $0.07–0.08 per GPU-hour. When GPUs rent at $4–6/hr, that’s 1–2% of revenue. What actually moves the needle? Utilization: 50% -> 85% uptime = +70% revenue per GPU That’s a multi-hundred bps margin swing, far outweighing any "cheap power" comparison with miners. Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. And it's not like $NBIS doesn't have cheap power either lol. 4. The CRWV Exception to Miners Everyone points to $CRWV as miners pivot but Coreweave literally spent YEARS to do this, along with billions in software acquisitions. And even now, reports suggest their utilization trails Nebius. If miners think they’ll replicate CRWV, good luck. I'd expect in NBIS to strong outperform in next year's earnings reports when it comes time for execution vs. speculation. 🧩 The Asymmetry Nebius GM: 70–75% (full-stack, 4yr depreciation) IREN/CIFR realistic GM: 40–60% (middleware, 2–3yr depreciation) Gross margin delta: 15–30 points Execution risk: Nebius = 0 (already doing it); IREN/CIFR = high Nebius isn’t a power play. It’s a software margins play, with hardware upside. With $IREN and others, you're guessing if it can pull off a $CRWV. People keep saying "software it not a moat, and look at $CRWV for $IREN future HPC margins", but if $ORCL one of the largest hyperscalers is stuck at 14% gross margins. Then how do we expect these small crypto miners to pull off a Coreweave. In terms of ASYMMETRICAL UPDATE, $NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. In terms of raw potential upside if $IREN manages to pull a $CRWV out a hat and beats out $ORCL in this, sure I'd concede. Software full stack is a HUGE moat that people vastly, vastly underestimate. With $NBIS, they can just let it plug and play scale up over time with the highest gross margins in industry. $NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.
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对比NBIS与IREN，认为前者如传奇纲手，后者如小樱般最终显得无用。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 就像传说中的纲手(DD Tsunade)四处行走并最终成为火影。$IREN 则像某些主角如小樱(Sakura)，起初人们羡慕其力量，但随着时间推移，在与拥有全套配置的人相比时，人们终将意识到这种力量是无用的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS is like DD Tsunade walking around becoming hokage like a legend. $IREN is some main character like Sakura with power that people admire at first but will come to realize is useless as time goes on when you compare it to someone with the full package.
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对比NBIS与转型矿企，强调软件全栈与护城河决定高毛利优势。
我在其他评论中提到 $CRWV，将其作为加密货币矿工转向高性能计算(HPC)所追求的金标准范例。 即便如此，在 $CRWV 花费数十亿美元收购软件并耗时多年构建之后，$NBIS 的 GPU 利用率依然更高。 人们对 $IREN 和其他转型中的加密货币矿工抱有过于乐观的看法，而 $ORCL 的毛利率实际上仅为 14%。$CRWV 花费数十亿美元和数年时间构建软件，人们却期望像 $SLNH 这样市值仅 1.4 亿美元的小盘股能有效转型并实现良好的毛利率。 产能带来更高的潜在收入，但如果毛利率微薄则意义不大。全栈+软件编排+客户多元化才是护城河，也是 $NBIS 在毛利率方面可能胜出的原因。 （另外我不看好 $CRWV，因为其坏账侵蚀了利润。$NBIS 的 40%+ 价外可转换票据结构才是正确路径）
原推 ↗英文原文
I mention $CRWV in the other comments as the gold standard example crypto miners pivoting to HPC aim for. Even then $NBIS has higher GPU utilization after CRWV spends billions on software acquisition and years to build it out. People have too much rose-tinted lens on $IREN and other crypto miners pivoting when $ORCL literally had 14% gross margins. Again CRWV spend billions and years on their software buildout and people expect some $140m micro cap like $SLNH to effectively pivot into good margins Capacity leads to higher potential revenue but it doesn’t mean much if their margins are small. Full stack + software orchestration + customer diversity is the moat and why $NBIS will likely come out on top in terms of margins. (Also didn’t like $CRWV since their bad debt eats into margins too. $NBIS convertible note structure 40%+ OTM is the way to go)
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卖出HPC挖矿股转投NBIS，因后者利润率更高。
不，直到本周我都几乎持有了所有新云(Neocloud)股票。但在周五卖出了高性能计算(HPC)挖矿概念股，因为整合了更多新信息，例如 $ORCL 的建设失败、$NBIS 两天前发布的新白皮书、$CRWV 最近的收购案，以及对利润率计算的更多洞察。 但我会把资金转入 $NBIS。 人们对 HPC 挖矿商转型过于乐观，而 $ORCL 该板块利润率仅为 14%，且大家只盯着 Coreweave 看。 算力有助于扩大营收规模，但如果无法实现像 Nebius 那样的高利润率，这就没那么重要了。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, I held almost every Neocloud up until this week. But ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations. But I'll put that into $NBIS. People are too bullish on HPC miner pivots when $ORCL had 14% for that segment and they just look at Coreweave. Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce
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质疑小型矿企转型算力基建能力，对比巨头与同行效率。
$ORCL 未能匹配这些算力，而它是一家市值 8000 亿美元的公司。你是在赌那些市值 30 亿至 150 亿美元的小型加密货币矿企转型后能建成这些设施。$CRWV 花了数年时间并通过数十亿美元的收购才勉强实现运营，即便如此，根据其白皮书，$NBIS 的利用率仍更高。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ORCL failed to match these capacities and it's a $800B company. You're betting that a lot of these small $3-$15B crypto miners pivoting can build it out. $CRWV took years and billions of dollars in acquisitions to make it sort of work and even after that, $NBIS has higher utilization as per their whitepaper.
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认为NBIS软件护城河深，非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。
我不同意，软件编排（Software Orchestration）可能是最大的护城河之一，这就是为什么在我看来，$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好！ 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦（GW）规模略大，潜在上行空间稍高，但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报，我认为市场将痛苦地发现，Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一，据 TI 报道，其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%（而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%）。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好，而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型（尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年），那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外，软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍（我在另一条评论中算过账）。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间，但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时，去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的，这是我的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.
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软件利用率对AI算力利润的影响远超廉价电力成本。
$NBIS 拥有廉价电力，但可能不如 $IREN 或 $CIFR 便宜。但为了让你明白为什么这没那么重要： 软件利用率/编排(Orchestration)是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高出约 30-70 倍。（请有人核实一下这个数学计算） 一张 H100 功耗约 0.84 千瓦。在 0.05 美元/千瓦时的电价下，成本为 0.04 美元/GPU-小时；即使在 0.10 美元/千瓦时，成本也仅为 0.08 美元/GPU-小时。 鉴于租赁价格约为 4 美元/GPU-小时，电力成本仅占收入的 1-2%。但将利用率从 50% 提升到 85%，会使单 GPU 收入增加 70%，从而大幅改变利润率。 不过，如果你拥有像 $CRWV 那样的所有组件（除了他们的坏账问题），那就是另一回事了，但这巨大的投机性赌注在于所有矿工能否建成这些设施。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS has access to cheap power, but it might not be as cheap as $IREN or $CIFR. But just to give you a sense of why it matters a lot less: Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. (someone pls fact check the math) A H100 burns ~0.84 kW. At $0.05 / kWh, that’s $0.04 / GPU-hour; even at $0.10 / kWh it’s $0.08 / GPU-hour. With rental prices of ~$4 / GPU-hour, power is just 1–2 % of revenue. But going from 50% to 85% utilization changes revenue per GPU by +70%, swinging margins massively. Then again if you have all the components like $CRWV (aside from their bad debt), then that's a different story, but it's a huge speculative gamble that all the miners can build that out.
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NBIS凭借低运营成本和高毛利率建立护城河，资金将从Oracle等竞争对手回流。
我曾讨论过 $NBIS 在大幅降低运营支出(opex)和提升利润率方面的内部护城河。这转化为定价权，因为他们可以收取更低的价格+获得更高利润+更高的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)可用于收购和投资（例如 Clickhouse）。Oracle 正在持续进行建设，据 TI 称这导致他们损失了 1 亿多美元。随着执行层面在 6 个月后的表现与当前的投机形成对比，我们可能会看到转向(miners pivoting)的矿工（CRWV 花了数年时间构建其技术栈+数十亿美元用于收购）毛利率恶化，资金将回流至 Nebius。$NBIS -> 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的毛利率。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse) Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently. $NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.
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NBIS凭借利润率与全栈软件护城河，在Neocloud竞争中胜出。
公平地说，比特币矿工确实有很多炒作。我猜测所有的 Neocloud 都会一起上涨。 但最终能脱颖而出的是在 ER（执行率/执行能力）期间的表现。$NBIS 凭借利润率和高护城河最终位居榜首。 全栈+软件编排是一个被误解的护城河。连 $ORCL 都没能做好，他们在建设上损失了1亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fair, there's a lot of hype around Bitcoin miners. My guess is every Neocloud will go up together anyway. But what ends up on top is execution during ER. $NBIS ends up on top due to margins and defensibility. Full stack + software orchestration is a misunderstood moat. Even $ORCL couldn't get it right and they lost $100m on buildout.
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看好NBIS下跌后的世代性机会，认为其将跑赢IREN。
@YNWA_AB 是的，我通常很少发单一个股的内容，但我觉得 $NBIS 现在是一个世代性的机会，尤其是在下跌30%之后。我看到 $IREN 和其他公司的上涨潜力，但认为 Nebius 将大幅跑赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
@YNWA_AB Yeah I normally don't do much single-stock posts, but just feel like $NBIS is a generational opportunity right now, especially on the 30% drop. I see the upside for $IREN and others, but feel like Nebius will strong outperform.
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看好NBIS非对称上行潜力，决定集中持仓。
@genZinvest0r 确实，$NBIS 的投资者就是更优越。 说笑归说笑，这并非赢家通吃的局面，例如云计算（Azure、AWS、GCP 等）。 但，我一直对 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力更看好，并认为我应该言行一致，将资金集中配置于此。
原推 ↗英文原文
@genZinvest0r True, $NBIS investors are just superior. Jokes aside it's not winner takes all eg. cloud (Azure, AWS, GCP, etc). But, I've always been more bullish on $NBIS in terms of asymmetrical upside and thought I should just put my money where my mouth is + focus concentration on it.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
原推 ↗英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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肯定免费内容价值，指出圈外散户可能因缺乏认知而亏损。
@MB_Hogan 是的，对于 $NBIS 你确实做到了。许多 X 账号发布的免费教育内容非常有帮助。然而，这个圈子之外的许多散户投资者可能亏了一些钱或者卖掉了他们的头寸。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MB_Hogan Yep you did for $NBIS, the free educational content a lot of X accounts put out is extremely helpful. However a lot of retail investors outside of this community probably lot a bit of money or sold their positions.
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
原推 ↗英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
原推 ↗英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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分析CIFR稀释影响，建议NBIS短线获利但长线持有。
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR 在约 16 美元时经历了 16% 的稀释，现在又回到了 19 美元，如果触及可转换票据（Convertible Note）编号，情况并非末日般糟糕。对于短期交易而言，在 140 美元左右获利了结 $NBIS 这类股票是明智之举，但我坚持其 1000 亿美元市值（Market Cap）的目标，因此我个人至少会持有 1 年。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR hit 16% dilution at $16 or so and now it's back at $19, it's not doom and gloom if it hits convertible note number. For short term trading, it's a smart to take profits on stuff like $NBIS at $140, but I stand by $100B MC so I'm personally holding 1 year min.
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博主买入NBIS看涨期权，以真金白银验证其投资信念。
@accounting_ds 是的，人们可以称之为疯狂，但我没看到他们在 $NBIS 上采取任何头寸。我在过去两周购买了价值 50 多万美元的看涨期权，所以我用真金白银为我的观点背书。我只是记录下我的思维过程，即我是如何建立这种信念的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@accounting_ds Yeah, people can call it crazy but I don't see them taking any positions on $NBIS. I bought $500k+ calls in the last two weeks so I put my money where my mouth is. I'm just writing down my train of thoughts in terms of how I developed my conviction.
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Nebius凭借全栈软件及运营效率，在利润率上优于纯容量型AI云厂商。
就纯上行潜力而言，$IREN 仅因纯粹的吉瓦(GW)容量而颇具前景。然而，$NBIS 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)。 随着最近发布的 Nebius 白皮书，他们公布了一些关于 GPU 利用率等数据。其全栈软件(full stack software)加上涵盖初创企业和中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化其运营支出(opex)，这是人们对其如何最大化 GPU 利润率的误解性护城河(misunderstood moat)。 人们试图将矿工(miners)框架化为潜在的转型者，但如果我们看看 $ORCL 的建设情况，他们在利润率转化上挣扎（建设后的 GPU 利用率等）。拥有其他软件层会压缩利润率，$CRWV 对此深有体会，这也是他们近期花费数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，原始容量并不总能转化为良好的利润率。全栈能力+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户，使 Nebius 具有明显优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud. With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs. People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.
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论证NBIS估值偏低，指出即使零增长其市值仍有大幅上涨空间。
1. 不，我说的是 $NBIS 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡可能存在一些收入滞后，但合同将在 2026 年底至 2027 年期间兑现，且其现有数据加上微软处于 $49 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）的基准情形，我估计即使没有增长，其市值（MC）也比当前高出 62.5%。 我使用零增长作为例子，仅仅是为了展示该业务本身在结构上被低估的程度。 2. 这是一个关于如何达到 1000 亿市值的高层概述，而非全面分析。我在括号中提到未深入探讨 GPU 折旧和电力容量问题。但总体而言，即使是旧款 GPU 也能保持价值并继续提供收益。
原推 ↗英文原文
1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth. I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally undervalued the business is as is. 2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.
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NBIS核心业务估值扎实，若获新云厂商合同，市值有望年内破千亿。
你说得对，分部估值之和(Sum of Parts)确实会更高。 撇开子公司不谈，其核心运营业务在零增长的基础情景下，未来两年年化经常性收入(ARR)为50亿美元，毛利率为60-70%。 然而它仍在增长，若能再签下一家超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的合同，$NBIS 一年内市值轻松突破1000亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
You’re right, sum of parts would be worth more. Subsidaries aside, the main operational business which at the base case no growth for the next two years is 5B ARR, 60-70% gross margins. However it’s still growing and with one more hyperscaler contract, NBIS can easily be $100b+ in a year
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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美国政府持股AI公司，预示国家安全战略支持，抑制机构做空。
该帖的核心在于深入分析美国政府持有 $IONQ 和 $RGTI 头寸的潜在影响。此前美国曾持有关键矿物公司及英特尔的头寸，鉴于美国通常避免持有私营企业股权，此举令人惊讶。AI 基础设施建设（数据中心、能源）如 $NBIS 及其他领域属于国家安全问题。鉴于美国政府开始为关乎国家利益的战略性公司和行业提供背书，我们不太可能再看到针对相关领域的机构做空行为。
原推 ↗英文原文
The point of the post was an analysis one step deeper into potential affects on US government taking positions in $IONQ, $RGTI. Previously the US took positions in critical mineral companies + Intel and it’s surprising given that US usually stays away taking equity in private companies. AI buildout (data center, energy) like $NBIS and other sectors are national security issues. And we’re less likely to see institutional shorting into adjacent sectors now that the US gov is starting to backstop companies and sectors strategic to national interests.
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美国政府入股量子等国安企业，引发空头回补与机构重配。
突发：美国政府拟收购量子计算公司股权，这是巨大的游戏规则改变者。 国家安全概念股——AI ($NBIS)、能源 ($TE)、太空 ($RKLB)、矿产 ($MP)、量子 ($RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS)——可能迎来剧烈反转，空头将疯狂平仓，做市商(Market Makers)的对冲操作也将机械性推高股价。 我们观察到一个清晰的趋势：华盛顿正在向国家安全公司投入数十亿美元，范围从关键矿产扩展到量子计算，并可能涉及其他领域。 特朗普政府购买对国家安全至关重要的各公司股权，可能引发机构显著重新配置仓位，因为基金和算法正在重新评估做空与美国政府在稀土、量子、AI等领域建设挂钩资产的风险。 机构和做市商(MMs)可能会针对散户做空，但他们绝不会对美国政府的资产负债表下注。
原推 ↗英文原文
Breaking: U.S. Government moves to take stakes in quantum computing firms, a huge game-changer. National security names - AI ( $NBIS ), Energy ( $TE ), Space ( $RKLB ), Minerals ( $MP ), Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward. We now see a clear trend: Washington is deploying billions into national security companies, expanding from critical minerals to quantum computing, and likely to others. The Trump administration buying equity of various firms critical to national security could trigger significant institutional repositioning, as funds and algorithms rethink the risks of shorting assets tied to the U.S. government's buildout of rare earths, quantum, AI, etc. Institutions and MMs may short against retail, but they never bet against the U.S. Government's balance sheet.
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市场高波成长股普跌，深度超卖股如NBIS现买入良机。
是的，现在对许多投资者来说确实是一段艰难时期，$HOOD 跌 7%，$RKLB 跌 10%，$TE 跌 13%，$CIFR 跌 15%，许多量子计算概念股单日下跌 20%。这对大多数人来说压力很大。 任何高贝塔值(高波动性)/成长型股票都遭到重创。 但积极的一面是，如果像 $NBIS 这样已经深度超卖且进一步被抛售的股票，就会转化为绝佳的买入机会。希望这对你们有利，只是需要一点耐心！
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah it's definitely rough times right now for a lot of investors, $HOOD down 7%, $RKLB down 10%, $TE down 13%, $CIFR down 15%, many quantum names down 20% all in a single day. Very stressful for most people. Anything high beta/growth got nuked together. But the positive thing is, if it's already deeply oversold + got sold off even more like $NBIS, then it turns into a great buying opportunity. I hope it plays out well for you, just requires a bit of patience!
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解析$NBIS暴跌机制：做市商对冲加剧波动，机构借机暗池吸筹。
对于 $NBIS，散户很可能基于未平仓合约大量购买了云服务商(CSP)相关的短期看涨期权。 当做市商(MM)作为交易对手方时，会加剧任何价格波动。在此案例中，它放大了下行走势，大型对冲基金很可能在较高价位（可能配合针对 $ORCL 及整个板块的内幕负面报道）初期做空。 做市商的机械式对冲导致当 Nebius 股价在 135-140 美元区间时价格急剧下跌。 散户在看到几天红盘（下跌）后卖出股票只是自然结果。但散户卖出是愚蠢的，因为基本面将压倒任何机械对冲资金流。 我在另一篇帖子中提到，散户恐慌性抛售影响的是最后成交价。机构能够通过暗池和大宗交易在不影响公开账本的情况下进行更多积累。
原推 ↗英文原文
With $NBIS, retail likely did a lot of CSP + short dated calls from open interest. When MMs act as the counterpart, it exacerbates any movement. In this case, it amplified downward movement, with large hedge fund likely shorting initially at higher prices (probably timed with The Insider hit piece like with $ORCL and the whole sector short). There's mechanical hedging from MMs which causes sharply price to drop when Nebius was around $135-$140. Retail selling their shares after seeing few days of red is just a natural consequence. But it's stupid for retail to sell fundamentals will outweigh any mechanical hedging flows. I mentioned in my other post that retail panic selling affects price last traded. Institutions are able to accumulate more without affecting open books through dark pools and block trades.
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作者因看好基本面在NBIS回调时加仓，并致力于普及机构投资方法论。
谢谢！我个人不太介意32%的回撤，因为我确信$NBIS仅凭基本面和现有合同就能恢复。所以我利用这段时间加仓。 但很多散户可能因为他们是追涨买入的而感到担忧。 所以我正尽力普及基本面以及做市商/机构用于构建投资组合规模的方法论，以便人们能做出更清晰的决策。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! I personally don't mind a 32% drawdown as much since I'm confident $NBIS will recover purely based off of fundamentals and existing contracts. So I use this time to add more. But a lot of retail are probably worried because they bought off momentum. So I'm trying my best to spread awareness of fundamentals + tactics MMs/insitutions use to build up portfolio sizing so people can make clearer decisions.
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NBIS估值极低且基本面强劲，下跌是机构吸筹良机。
我之前说过，$NBIS 240亿美元的市值简直荒谬可笑。它在为 $MSFT Azure 和其他超大规模云服务商提供支持的同时，季度营收增长超1000%，一年内 ARR（年度经常性收入）达到40-60亿美元以上。此外，它拥有70%以上的毛利率，50多亿美元现金，以及数十亿投资于 Anthropic、Meta 等超高速增长投资组合公司的资产。我们还有历史上最大规模的数据中心建设（出于国家安全原因）、11/12月的季节性因素，以及今年仅剩的两次降息作为顺风。但正是在这种散户被清洗或“纸手”只看价格不看基本面的时候，机构才会进行积累。这就是为什么在没有实质性利空的情况下下跌7%感觉像是一份礼物，尽管这对短期数据有打击。
原推 ↗英文原文
I said this earlier but 24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year by powering $MSFT azure and other hyperscalers. While doing 70%+ gross margins, having $5B+ in cash, and billions in assets that go up over time in hyper-growth portfolio companies that power Anthropic, Meta, and other is laughable. We also have the largest data center buildout in history for national security reasons, Nov/Dec seasonality, and 2 more rate cuts this year alone as tailwind. But it's times like these where retail gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how institutions accumulate. That's why the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift, even though it's a short term hit to the numbers.
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NBIS遭错杀，基本面强劲，机构持仓将借机上升。
看起来目前高贝塔值(high-beta)股票也在全面抛售，从 $HOOD、$RKLB 到量子计算板块皆是如此。$NBIS 在其他股票之前就开始下跌，因此在原有 23%+ 跌幅的基础上再跌 7%，简直是雪上加霜。 一家正在将年化经常性收入(ARR)从数百美元扩展至 40-60 亿美元、毛利率约 60-75%、持有 50 亿美元以上现金、拥有投资组合公司数十亿所有权，且处于美国万亿美元数据中心建设浪潮中的公司，市值却只有 240 亿美元……这简直令人发笑。 但遗憾的是，正是在这样的时刻，散户被清洗或只看价格不看基本面的“纸手”投资者离场，从而使得机构持股比例随时间上升。我不惊讶于看到这个数字大幅上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
Looks like there's also a selloff across all high-beta stocks right now too from $HOOD, $RKLB, to quantum. $NBIS sold off before the others so the 7% drop today on top of the existing 23%+ drop is icing on the cake. 24B marketcap... for a company scaling hundreds of %+ to $4-6B ARR on ~60-75% gross margins, $5B+ in cash, ownership in the billions for portfolio companies, amidst the US trillion dollar data center buildout is laughable. But it's times like these where retail sadly gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how the ownership % goes up over time. Wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up a lot.
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持有NBIS看涨期权，看好降息与财报带来的反弹机会。
我继续持有1月/3月到期的看涨期权。如果一只股票在没有消息的情况下能在一周内下跌30%，那么像$NBIS这样高贝塔值的股票也可能在短时间内反弹43%。 我对两次降息、季节性因素以及财报依然保持信心。过去一个月没有重大新闻（只有利好消息），但让我们看看接下来会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm holding my Jan/Mar calls. If a stock can do down 30% in a week off no news, it can also go back up 43% in a short time with high beta stocks like $NBIS. I'm still confident with 2x rate cut, seasonality, and earnings. There's been no material news (only positive ones in the past month), but we'll see what happens.
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看好NBIS并加仓，认为TE若达成目标市值潜力巨大。
我对 $NBIS 持有最高的确信度，这也是为什么我很乐意尽可能大幅地进行成本平均（cost average leaps）。 我对其他能源板块标的没有同样的看法，不过 $TE 可能是其中最高的，因为如果它能实现管理层 2027 年 EBITDA 目标的一半，按 8 倍 EBITDA 估值倍数计算，其市值将从当前的 7 亿美元升至 52 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
I have the highest conviction in $NBIS, which is why I'm happy to cost average leaps as much as possible. I don't have the same sentiment as other energy plays, $TE is probably highest though because if it delivers 1/2 of management EBITDA 2027 target, 8× EBITDA multiple would be 5.2B MC from the current $700m MC.
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博主逆势加仓$NBIS LEAPS，坚信基本面强劲，视暴跌为机构吸筹良机。
以$98.8的价格加仓了价值$200k的$NBIS LEAPS（长期股权预期权），行权价为2026年12月的$105。 Nebius在一周内从$140跌至$97，跌幅超30%，这可能会让你自我怀疑，但正是在这样的时刻，信念（Conviction）最为重要。 如果你理解基本面和行业，这就是天赐良机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike. Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most. If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift. https://t.co/Yv0s3t1cuy
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博主称已投入30万美金看涨期权，以行动证明NBIS被极度低估。
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 我大约在2个交易日前加了$300k的看涨期权(call options) lol。如果我说某物被极度低估，我会真金白银地证明我的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AnaCintra24 @MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 I added $300k in call options like 2 trading days ago lol. If I say something is extremely undervalued, I put money where my mouth is. https://t.co/pKEHP8UhHh
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作者认为Nebius获超大规模云厂商注资后去风险，100美元仍被低估。
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 嗯，在 $MSFT 交易后建立投资信念(investing conviction)并没有错。 我在 $NBIS 低于 40 美元时就已持有，但直到一家超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)投入 170 多亿美元为公司去风险(de-risk)后，我才真正建立起信念。 话虽如此，每个人都有自己的观点，但我认为 Nebius 在 100 美元时仍被低估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 Hmm, nothing wrong with developing conviction after the $MSFT deal. I had $NBIS sub $40 but only developed conviction after 17B+ from a hyperscaler de-risked the company. That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I just think Nebius is undervalued at $100.
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反驳外部优势论，强调全栈软件与运营效率才是NBIS高毛利护城河。
是的，我同意这种拆解。但我觉得你关注错了重点（外部竞争优势）。 他们全栈软件(software full stack)加上涵盖初创企业、中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化自身的运营支出(opex)，这本身就是护城河(moat)。 你提到了像 $IREN 这样的矿企(miners)，但如果看看 $ORCL，他们在利润率以及未能转化为实际效益的建设/转型（如建设后的GPU利用率等）方面曾举步维艰。拥有其他软件层也会降低利润率，$CRWV 就亲身经历了这一点，这也是他们近期斥资数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，拥有原始算力(raw capacity)并不总能转化为良好的利润率，就像 $NBIS 已经拥有的那样（如果我没记错的话，上次财报(ER)显示其毛利率为71.2%），这是全栈+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户带来的优势，而那些转型的矿企将不具备这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I’d agree with the breakdown. But think you’re focusing on the wrong thing (external competitive advantage). Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is the moat in and of itself. You mention miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers also reduces margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs that miners that pivot won’t have.
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认为NBIS核心业务被低估，机构持仓将大幅上升。
抛开子公司不谈，仅看核心业务，我认为 $NBIS 被低估了。Nebius 在短短1年内从1亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）增长到10亿-15亿美元 ARR，这种增长速度令人震惊。这是小公司赋能 $GOOGL Cloud、$MSFT Azure、$AMZN Web Services 等基础设施的世代性机遇，而这些是 Mag7（美股七巨头）中最盈利的板块。散户并未看到这一机会。机构肯定看到了，我不惊讶于 Nebius 的机构持股比例从38%在6个月内升至65%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued. It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y. And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7. Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.
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WSB是底部信号，长期方向准但短视，逆向操作需定力。
@AkaliOnYT 是的，/r/wallstreetbets 是 $NBIS 等股票的绝佳底部信号。他们对 $RKLB、$HOOD、$TSM 和 $MU 的长期方向判断往往正确，但注意力持续时间只有一个月。能说服自己采取相反操作是一项特殊技能。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AkaliOnYT Yeah /r/wallstreetbets is a great bottom signal for $NBIS and others. They’re often directionally right long term $RKLB, $HOOD, $TSM, and $MU but have 1 month long attention spans. It's a special skill to convince yourself to do the opposite.
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作者认为NBIS估值偏低，利好AI算力及供应链相关个股。
我礼貌地表示反对，“公允价值”应该更高。新的$NBIS数据中心将提升经常性收入(ARR)，三次降息是巨大的催化剂。刚刚，Anthropic可能与$GOOGL签署200亿美元以上的协议，这对Clickhouse、$WULF、$IREN和Neoclouds都是利好。$META与$CRWV的交易也是如此。Google/七巨头(Mag7)受算力限制，这对Nebius（尽管在此消息下仍下跌5.6%）是更大的催化剂，预计其将有更多超大规模云服务商合同落地。
原推 ↗英文原文
I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst. Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals. Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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反驳NBIS套牢论，看好其全栈优势及高增长前景。
@Mitchelldzll 我认为用“套牢者(bagholder)”来形容 $NBIS 并不准确，这是一家拥有代际意义的、全栈式(full-stack)的公司，其未来季度营收增长超过1000%，并且拥有对长期护城河至关重要的投资组合公司。我目前在高确信度(high conviction)股票上从未判断失误。这仅仅是个开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mitchelldzll Don’t think bagholder is a correct term for $NBIS, a generational full-stack company growing forward q revenue 1000%+, which owns critical portfolio companies for long term defensibility. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stocks yet. This is just the beginning
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看好NBIS长期看涨期权，认为终将获利
@soulbiri1 我认为这些 $NBIS 的看涨期权(leaps)将会行权获利！只是时间问题，我喜欢虚值(OTM) $120 的行权价，选得好
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 I think these $NBIS leaps are going to print! Just a matter of time, I like the OTM $120 strike, good choice
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Neoclouds凭借软件编排优势解决GPU瓶颈，构建高毛利护城河。
好问题！超大规模云厂商已签署确切的利用率+支出协议，例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易，微软将在5年内支出170-200亿美元。这并非完全是在承担高资本支出(capex)的风险，因为他们是在为产能付费以解决瓶颈。他们仍在支出数百亿美元，部分原因是无法自建，部分原因是前期高资本支出存在更大风险。我在核心论点中写道，Neoclouds（新云）+ 有意将GPU分配给这些Neoclouds是 $NVDA 维持主导地位、实现多元化并避免未来利润率压缩的方式。我们也看到超大规模云厂商在自建方面遇到困难（如 $ORCL 亏损1亿美元），但这恰恰表明Neoclouds在软件编排处理GPU利用率以及通过其建设方式维持高毛利率方面拥有巨大护城河。$NBIS、$WLAC 等毛利率已达70%左右，现在只是执行问题。这不仅是芯片稀缺，这些小型公司+转型HPC的比特币矿工（如 $IREN）实际上拥有竞争优势，即护城河。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great question! Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years. It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road. We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout. $NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.
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NBIS 短期回调不改长期看好，机构持仓低且数据中心业务爆发。
$NBIS 在无重大消息情况下下跌 17% 并未改变我的信念。我的牛市目标价(PT) 仍为 $400。 我们以前见过这种走势： - $ASTS 每股收益(ER) 从 $58 跌至 $36，随后涨至 $83。 - $GOOGL 因 AI 搜索业务从 $170 跌至 $144，随后涨至 $257。 - $HOOD 因宏观因素从 $40 跌至 $28，随后涨至 $135。 当基本面和行业势头保持完好时，尽管短期下跌，坚定的信念终将获得回报。 来自 META、GOOGL、MSFT 的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 正向 AI 数据中心投入数十亿美元，而 Nebius 正在为 Mag7 的现金牛业务提供支持，预计还将有更多超大规模云服务商的交易。未来季度营收预计同比激增 1000%。这种增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。 机构持股比例较低（流通股的 38.3%），随着公司成长，各种手段将被用来从散户手中获取更多股份。 基本面和数据中心增长并未改变，反而呈指数级改善。（例如：今天宣布的新 Nebius 以色列数据中心，以及不断增长的年度经常性收入(ARR)）。 现在是做多(best times go long)的最佳时机，也是市场中赚取世代财富的地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. We've seen this move before: - $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83. - $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257. - $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop. Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history. Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR). These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.
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解释投资TE和NBIS的逻辑，看好能源及NBIS年底涨幅。
谢谢！哈哈，这篇写得不太好，只是我承认自己缺乏领域知识，无法给出好的观点。 但我选择投资 $TE，因为我知道能源行业将是数据中心建设（Data Center Buildout）的受益者，而且我信任他人的尽职调查（DD）。 至于 $NBIS，对我来说就像是大甩卖，因为我确实认为它年底会涨到 200 美元以上。 我不认为它会再次跌破 100 美元，在我买入更多 LEAPS 之前，为了捕捉真正的底部而节省那百分之几的利润并搞砸复苏行情，对我来说并不值得。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Not a great writeup lol, it’s just me admitting I don’t have domain knowledge and can’t give a good opinion. But I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others. As for $NBIS, it’s like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year. Don’t think it goes below $100 again and saving a few percent catching the true bottom + messing up recovery wasn’t worth it for me before I bought more leaps.
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建议做多NBIS/WLAC及TSM/AMZN看涨期权，认为当前是最佳做多时机。
@capybara_830 说实话，$NBIS、$WLAC，然后将 $NVO 拆分并买入 6 个月后的 $TSM 和 $AMZN 看涨期权，听起来太完美了。目前已有两次降息预期，且市场刚经历回调，正进入季节性表现最佳的月份。如果现在有任何时机做多，那就是现在。
原推 ↗英文原文
@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful. There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.
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对比NBIS基本面与量子计算股泡沫，认为后者估值虚高。
区别在于，$NBIS 在2026年的远期营收(Forward Revenue)为40-60亿美元，毛利率(Gross Margins)约为70%。 其市值为280亿美元，且存在支撑该估值的前瞻性增长基本面。 而量子计算(Quantum)公司大多尚未实现营收，其大量收入来自利息而非营收。像 $RGTI 和 $QBTS 这样没有实质性远期营收的公司，市值却高达数百亿美元，这显然是泡沫。
原推 ↗英文原文
The difference is that $NBIS is doing 4-6B forward revenue in 2026 off ~70% gross margins. The market cap is 28B and forward growth fundamentals are there to support valuation. Quantum are pre-revenue with a lot of their income coming from interest instead of revenue. Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.
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认为地缘政治风险可控，看好台积电及AI基建股。
并非如此。无论特朗普政府还是其他政府，中国都不会入侵台湾，因为 $TSM 是美国最大的国家安全风险之一。 美国没有全民医保是有原因的，任何可能入侵的国家都会发现原因并遭到彻底摧毁。 因此，我对 $TSM 及相关半导体或 AI 基础设施建设 $NBIS 感到放心。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really. China won’t invade Taiwan under Trump administration or others since $TSM is one of the largest national security risks to United States. There’s a reason US doesn’t have universal healthcare and any country that might invade would find out why + get flattened to the ground. Hence why I’m comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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博主看好WLAC和NBIS，认为WLAC IPO潜力巨大。
@DeepValueBagger 是的，我非常看好 $WLAC 和 $NBIS，那是我的前两名。 $WLAC 在首次公开募股(IPO) 时拥有巨大的上涨空间，只是目前还没有人知道 boost 这个指标，不过它确实是个很棒的指标！我也应该用用看哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Yeah I really liked $WLAC and $NBIS, those were my top 2. WLAC has huge upside when they IPO, just nobody knows about boost yet, great metric though! I should use that too lol
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做市商压制NBIS股价，预期周一空头平仓后反弹，故买入看涨期权。
做市商(MM)很可能正在对 $NBIS 进行价格压制(Pinning)，尽管市场波动，股价仍卡在 $113.5 附近。我预计周一空头对冲头寸将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并卖出看涨期权 -> 临近到期时存在大量空头头寸），价格将回升，因此我利用这次机会在高隐含波动率(IV)下买入看涨期权。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's likely MM pinning for $NBIS, you can see this with the price stuck at $113.5 despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV.
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博主反思应多买NBIS价外期权，但表示释然。
@babyfolio 2026年12月到期的期权，$110-$115的价位！ 我现在回想起来，本应该多做一些价外(OTM)的$NBIS $125行权价期权。不过没关系。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio December strikes like $110-$115 for 2026! I should have done more OTM $NBIS strikes like $125 now that I think of it. It’s okay though
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博主宣布加入X变现，承诺收益全捐，坚持从市场而非粉丝获利。
完全透明： 我已加入 X 货币化计划——以下是我本月的数据： • 530 万曝光量 📈 • 1.7 万点赞（+734%）👍 • 8900 次收藏（+5000%+）🔖 • 1300 次转发（4000%+）🐦 作为一名交易者，我从市场（例如 $NBIS）赚钱，而不是从粉丝或订阅者那里赚钱。 我基于自己的论点进行交易，并且总是言行一致（真金白银投入）。 🫂因此，来自 X 的每一分钱都将直接回馈社区和慈善机构。 我的目标是分享我的交易方式（因为对有益信息设置付费墙没有意义），并揭示帮助普通人穿越噪音的见解。 感谢自从我不久前提加入 X 以来大家的所有支持。这意味着我可以帮助更多人！ 行动 > 言语。 从市场赚钱，而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Full Transparency: I've joined X Monetization - here are my stats this month: • 5.3M Impressions 📈 • 17K Likes (+734%) 👍 • 8.9k Bookmarks (+5,000%+) 🔖 • 1.3k Shares (4,000%+) 🐦 As a trader, I make money in the markets (eg. $NBIS), never from followers or subs. I trade on my own thesis and always put my money where my mouth is. 🫂Thus, every cent from X will go straight back to the community + to charity. My goal is to share how I trade (since there’s no point in paywalling helpful information) and surface insights that helps regular people navigate through the noise. Grateful for all the recent support since I just joined X not too long ago. It just means I can help more people! Actions > words. Make money off the markets, not off followers.
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NBIS下跌源于交易因素非基本面，建议周一做市商解除对冲后做多。
是的，$NBIS 这10%的下跌是市场做市商(MM)的对冲加上期权平仓（混合了散户的保证金清算），并非基本面有任何变化。 -> 很多人卖出了看跌期权(Puts) -> 很多人持有的看涨期权(Calls)本周到期。 你可以看到盘后股价完全被钉在$113.5。 在我看来，周一市场做市商(MM)解除空头对冲后，现在是做多和买入的好时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah this $NBIS 10% drop was MM hedging + option unwinds (with a mix of retail margin liqudations), not any changes to fundamentals. -> Lot of people sold puts -> Lot of people had calls expiring this week. You can see how the stock is completely pinned at $113.5 after hours. Great time to go long and buy positions IMO after MMs unwind short hedges Monday.
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博主计划在NBIS大跌时买入长期期权。
@DeepValueBagger 我一直在等待像这样（基本面没有实质性变化）10%以上的跌幅，以便买入 $NBIS 的长期期权（LEAPS）。很高兴你也看到了这个机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I've been waiting for a 10%+ drop like this (with no material changes to fundamentals) to buy leaps on $NBIS. Glad you see the opportunity too.
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作者基于信念交易，认为NBIS长期期权表现将类似HOOD的V型反转。
@soulbiri1 $NBIS 的LEAPS（长期期权）应该会有不错的表现，这让我想起$HOOD从40美元跌至29美元，随后反弹至100美元以上的时期。 我基于自己的信念进行交易！
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 $NBIS leaps should print, reminds me of the time $HOOD went from $40 to $29 then went on a rally to $100+. I trade on my own conviction!
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NBIS市值逼近OKLO，但前者明年ARR预计达40-60亿。
@_visionarius 当然！$NBIS 的市值几乎追平了 $OKLO。区别在于后者尚未产生收入，而 Nebius 明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)预计将达到 40-60 亿美元 lol。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_visionarius Of course! $NBIS is almost at $OKLO's marketcap. The difference is the latter is pre-revenue and Nebius is set to do $4-6B ARR next year lol.
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博主在NBIS大跌时加仓30万看涨LEAPS，视其为绝佳买入机会。
抛售 $NBIS 我个人在这个价位加购了30万美元的看涨LEAPS（长期股权预期证券），在我看来，10%的跌幅是巨大的买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fire sale $NBIS Personally added $300K in call leaps at this level, 10% drop is a huge buying opportunity imo. https://t.co/EYYmETApmP
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降息在即，建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天（概率94.1%）。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言： $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊，尽管市场反弹，其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210（现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳，让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错，但像Google一样，它跌破了人们预期的水平，所以甚至可能触及$200） 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题，这只是我个人的风险承受能力，非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.
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建议无视噪音，关注基本面，利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢，只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力（数据中心、电力）的需求出现了绝对激增，而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低（例如 $NBIS 为 38%，而通常理想区间为 60-75%）。散户可能因错误原因（例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售，尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂，却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增）或受特定地区银行冲击影响，将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观，这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好（确实完好，且我们此前低估了需求），并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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区域银行恐慌是买入AI基建及新云厂商的良机，优选有真实营收支撑的标的。
宏观与回调思考 10月16日： 市场动态繁多，例如 $GLD 创历史新高，但这涉及美元的另一条复杂线索。今日股市主要下跌源于区域银行的冲击，因此我将聚焦于此。 以下是极佳的买入机会： 拥有确认的 Mag7 合同的新云厂商(Neoclouds) - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) 等。 AI 基础设施建设(AI Buildout) - 半导体如 $TSM（强烈买入，这类在爆发式财报后似乎总是回调以清洗看涨期权）。我们已有爆发式财报数据及增长的利润率+远期营收，$TSM 是我见过最简单的做多标的。TSM 的印钞能力也支持这一建设论点。 - 能源如 $FLNC 可能因数据中心建设+AI 使用带来的重估而继续上涨。 加密货币 - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 都是极好的买入点，但我对 $CRCL 等会稍加谨慎。人们可能对 2023 年 Silvergate 倒闭及 USDC 脱钩仍有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。 某些股票急需修正： - 量子计算 - 机器人/无人机 - 关键矿产（仅特定标的可能优质） 这些公司零营收却因炒作呈抛物线增长。 区别在于，新云厂商+AI 基础设施建设是基于执行确认的营收。它们虽都是国家安全风险，但 AI 建设有全球最富有的超大规模云厂商背书。 “$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL 等今年资本支出预计达 3200 亿。”- BI “$META, OpenAI 和 $ORCL 宣布未来几年将在数据中心投入超 1 万亿美元。”- BI 具体发生的情况： 市场今日因区域银行担忧下跌，但可能被夸大。最新恐慌源于 Zion/Western Alliance 的借款人欺诈。我猜测是个别银行问题，而非会导致信贷紧缩的系统性银行崩溃。 两周后降息概率接近 98%。这是全面必要的修正（以清除泡沫）+杠杆交易+期权流向。利用此次修正做多。 这仍是整个 AI 建设的最早期阶段，我预计 $NBIS 为例，1 年内 ARR 将增至 45 亿-70 亿+，市值从当前增至 600 亿+。 再次强调，新云厂商的炒作源于远期营收增长（基本面），而量子/部分无人机公司的炒作基于承诺。现在是扩大拥有疯狂远期营收增长（将导致市值大幅重估）公司多头的完美时机，而非仅如量子计算般的行业叙事/投机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th: There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD. Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that. It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc. AI Buildout - Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls). We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen. TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis. - Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use. Crypto - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though. People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging. It's a much needed correction for certain stocks: - Quantum - Robotics/Drones - Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good) That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype. _ The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution. They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it. " $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI " $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI _ In terms of what happened in specific: Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud. My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening. We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long. This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here. Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc. are based around promises. It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.
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博主认为NBIS无利空下跌是买入机会，并在122.9美元附近加仓看涨期权。
没有新闻的下跌总是 $NBIS 的礼物。 （在约 $122.9 处加仓了看涨期权） https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
原推 ↗英文原文
No news dips are always a nice gift $NBIS. (Added calls at~$122.9) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog
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博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
原推 ↗英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
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宏观降息与基本面改善将推动NBIS估值重估。
至少对于2025年的$NBIS而言： 宏观层面 -> 政府重新开放至月底降息，进而进入财报季（这对大多数成长股是巨大的催化剂） -> 12月进行第二次降息。 基本面 -> Nebius或相关公司（如Coreweave）获得更多“七巨头(Mag7)”的合同。 -> 财报发布（基于前瞻指引，其估值应大幅重估） -> 分部投资正走向IPO。
原推 ↗英文原文
At least for 2025 on $NBIS Macro wise -> Gov re-open into rate cut end of month into earnings (huge huge catalyst for most growth stocks) -> Second rate cut in December. Fundamentals -> More Mag7 contracts for Nebius or related companies like Coreweave. -> Earnings report (they should re-rate really hard on this with forward projections) -> Sum of parts investments moving toward IPO.
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机构低位增持 $NBIS，认为其将赋能 Azure，建议勿因噪音卖出。
机构在低位进行了一些有趣的操作，以积累 $NBIS 流通盘的另外 20%。 机构持股比例为 38%（极低）（优质公司通常在 60-80%），而对冲基金开始终于意识到 Nebius 未来将为 MSFT Azure 和许多其他前沿模型提供动力。 所以，在“大豆籽油”新闻上卖出并不是个好主意，但这可能像 Oracle 的抹黑文章一样甩掉了一些散户。
原推 ↗英文原文
Institutions do some fun stuff to accumulate another 20% of the float of $NBIS at lower levels. Institutional ownership is 38% (extremely low) (60-80% usually on great companies), and hedge funds are starting to finally realize Nebius will power MSFT Azure and many other frontier models in the future. So yeah, not a good idea to sell on the Soybean Seed Oil news, but probably shook off some retail like the Oracle hit piece.
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NBIS作为AI核心基建营收激增，却因农产品因素下跌。
人工智能是历史上最大的国家安全问题与竞赛。 AI 可以基于算力设计核武器或创造改变生活的发现。 $NBIS 是 AI 和 Mag7（七大科技巨头）的新基础设施，其远期营收同比增长 1400%。 🥭然而，因为种子油和豆类（农产品）的影响，它跌了 5.4%。 https://t.co/VRd8RoLB4a
原推 ↗英文原文
AI is the largest national security issue and race in history. AI can design nuclear weapons or create life changing discoveries based on compute. $NBIS is the new infra of AI and Mag7 with 1400% Y/Y forward revenue. 🥭And it sold off 5.4% because of Seed Oils and Soybeans. https://t.co/VRd8RoLB4a
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用游戏卡组比喻构建新云AI基础设施投资组合。
🧙♂️ 召唤艾克佐迪亚，理想的“新云”卡组 艾克佐迪亚卡组： 🧩 $NBIS – 头部 🧩 $WLAC – 左臂 🧩 $IREN – 右臂 🧩 $CIFR – 左腿 🧩 $WULF – 右腿 贪婪壶配置： 🏭 $TSM ⚡ $FLNC 🏡 $GLXY 当这五张牌全部进入你的投资组合时，Sydney Sweeney 将从“新云”降临 https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl
原推 ↗英文原文
🧙♂️ Summoning Exodia, the ideal Neocloud Deck Exodia Deck: 🧩 $NBIS – Head 🧩 $WLAC – Left Arm 🧩 $IREN – Right Arm 🧩 $CIFR – Left Leg 🧩 $WULF – Right Leg Pot of Greed Setup: 🏭 $TSM ⚡ $FLNC 🏡 $GLXY When all five are in your port, Sydney Sweeney descends from the Neocloud https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl
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预测NBIS股价将突破400美元。
@nateschanker @mvcinvesting @EndicottInvests @investwithsheng @TradeSignalHQ $NBIS 涨至 $400+！
原推 ↗英文原文
@nateschanker @mvcinvesting @EndicottInvests @investwithsheng @TradeSignalHQ $NBIS to $400+!
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看好$NBIS，认为Mag7收入外溢将带动新云厂商上涨。
@Rexxig $NBIS 牛市情景下目标价$400。目前股价为$135。 绝对值得至少建仓 Nebius。虽然不能对其他标的说同样的话（指同样安全），但随着 Mag7 将收入向下漏斗式转移，所有新云厂商都应上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Rexxig $NBIS $400 PT on a bull case. It's sitting at $135. Definitely worth dropping into Nebius at least. Can't really say the same as safely for the rest, but all neoclouds should go up with mag7 funneling revenue down to them.
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NBIS凭借全栈软件及多元客户，长期潜力优于IREN。
IREN 短期内可能因原始算力(GW)优势而表现优异，但 $NBIS 具备在市场修正/崩盘中存活并最终成为下一个市值超1000亿美元的 $MSFT 的潜力，其价值源于各部分投资之和。此外，他们拥有多元化的客户群（从 $ORCL 财报中我们已看到其重要性）。同时具备全栈+软件编排能力（从 $ORCL 财报及 $CRWV 收购软件公司中可见其重要性）。市场正在定价矿工转型的能力，但正如甲骨文案例所示，始终存在盈利风险，因此 NBIS 已具备这一优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
IREN might outperform near term just because of raw GW but $NBIS has the potential to outlast any market correction/crash and become the next $100B+ $MSFT with sum of parts investments. Also they have diversified client base (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report) Also full stack + software orchestration (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report and why $CRWV has been buying up software companies). People are pricing in miners being able to pivot but there's always profitability risk as seen with oracle, hence why NBIS already has that down.
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博主完全赞同关于NBIS的观点。
@arpit_sidana $NBIS 100%（完全同意）
原推 ↗英文原文
@arpit_sidana $NBIS 100%
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因行情垂直飙升，停止卖CIFR看涨期权并买入NBIS。
@pepemoonboy 本周我停止了对 $CIFR 卖出看涨期权(CC) 以买入 $NBIS，因为所有走势都呈垂直飙升态势。
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@pepemoonboy I stopped selling CC's this week for $CIFR to $NBIS because everything is just going vertical.
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看好RKLB长期潜力，并推荐NBIS等替代标的。
@paramdan42454 只要基本面良好，股票在长期内总是会上涨的。 我认为 $RKLB 总有一天会像 SpaceX 一样达到 3500 亿美元的市场规模，而它现在才 300 亿美元。 如果你觉得自己错过了什么，也总有新的机会，比如 $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC。
原推 ↗英文原文
@paramdan42454 Stonks always go higher over longer periods of time if they’re fundamentally good. I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it’s still $30B now. There’s always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC
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上调NBIS目标价至450美元，重申其他新云标的跑赢大盘评级。
随着泰勒·斯威夫特进入新云(NeoCloud)领域，即便GPT-5拥有10GW算力也找不到她持久的男友。 我将$NBIS的1年目标价上调至$450，并重申对其他标的的跑赢大盘(outperform)评级，原因是能源消耗无限。
原推 ↗英文原文
With Taylor Swift entering the Neocloud space, not even 10GW compute on GPT-5 can find her a lasting boyfriend. Raising my 1Y price target on $NBIS to $450 and reiterating outperform on the rest due to infinite energy consumption. $WLAC $CIFR $FLNC $IREN $TSM $AMD $BITF $WYFI $GLXY
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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解析$NBIS全栈优势及分部估值，给出$400目标价，对比$CIFR/$IREN。
我仍持有6位数的随机$CIFR期权，但信心不高。 简短总结我对$NBIS比其他公司更有信心的原因： -Nebius是全栈式(full-stack) -> 利润率更高（GPU利用率的软件编排，我们曾讨论过其重要性，以及从$ORCL建设失败中建立的护城河，还有$CRWV收购大量软件公司的原因）。 -分部估值(sum of parts)（例如FTX投资Anthropic、$HOOD，它们在几年内都上涨了1000%）即使利润率受压，也能比主营业务更持久，且$NBIS在Clickhouse等优秀公司中持有大量股份。 -更分散的客户群（也从$ORCL那里学到了其重要性）用于建设->使用，相比其他Neoclouds。 高置信度$400目标价，牛市情景下1年内$1000亿市值。 我也做多$IREN等，仅因其电力容量，或$CIFR作为“轻量版Nebius”在融资+Mag7客户方面，但这与我坚信一家公司vs认为其基本面将跑赢略有不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction. Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because -Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies). -sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse -more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds. High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case. I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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感谢互动，期待下周NBIS表现。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，看起来局势有所缓和。也很期待下周的 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, looks like there was some de-escalation. Excited for $NBIS too next week https://t.co/Vg3ZM4D5eW
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Coreweave是新云核心但债务风险高于同行。
@Solar_Twelve 我实际上已经触及了 X 平台股票代码数量的上限，否则我会讨论更多从 $AMD 到 $CRWV 的内容。不过，Coreweave 确实是新云(Neocloud)交易的核心，但相比 NBIS 或 CIFR，其债务状况相当糟糕。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Solar_Twelve I actually hit the X ticker maximum otherwise I would have talked about more stuff from $AMD to $CRWV. But yeah, Coreweave is at the center of the Neocloud trade but they have pretty toxic debt compared to NBIS or CIFR.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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分享受关税影响较小的个股建仓及宏观恐慌下的逢低买入机会。
关于持仓变动： 新建 $DKNG 仓位 - $32.7（看起来估值不错，下跌7%） 买入 $UNH - $356（下跌3%） 买入 $AMZN - $217.8（下跌4%） 感觉这些股票受关税影响最小，尤其是 Draftkings 哈哈。 另外，由于宏观担忧因特朗普的一条推文突然浮现，$SPY 下跌1.65%提供了绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌3.7% $AMD - 下跌8.27% $HIMS - 下跌8% $SNAP - 下跌5.1% $META - 下跌3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。
原推 ↗英文原文
In terms of position changes: Started new $DKNG position - $32.7 (seems pretty good value, 7% drop) Bought $UNH - $356 (3% drop) Bought $AMZN - $217.8 (4% drop) Just felt these were the least unaffected by tariffs, especially Draftkings lol.
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宏观恐慌提供买入机会，重点阐述$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的高赔率逻辑。
此外，由于特朗普的一条推文导致宏观恐慌突然重现，$SPY 下跌 1.65% 是一个绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌 3.7% $AMD - 下跌 8.27% $HIMS - 下跌 8% $SNAP - 下跌 5.1% $META - 下跌 3.07% $WLAC 和 $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。 （引用内容）： 自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资逻辑，如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的只有 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，即从当前（44 亿市值）上涨 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿市值的估算基于 $RKLB 的倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的收入积压订单）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列(Falcon-class)的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 公司最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的特征。空头指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险…… 他们应该问的问题是，诺斯罗普(Northrop)和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的小型发射公司之间的联合开发(CO-DEVELOPMENT)。 诺斯罗普此前确实有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前是有效的，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚将在 2026-2027 年由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载），已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的积压订单以及美国“金穹顶”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，如果 Firefly 在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大护城河成为下一个 SpaceX，购买 Firefly 的风险回报是不错的。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，我只是认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载的机会高于正常水平）。 显然，Rocketlab 实现可重复使用中型运载的成功概率更高，但这已反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，而 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。而且我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人(Rocketman)本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90%+ 的机会实现可重复使用中型运载飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，仅仅是因为太空 TAM 因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop. Just some examples: $AMZN - down 3.7% $AMD - down 8.27% $HIMS - down 8% $SNAP - down 5.1% $META - down 3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.
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建议核心持仓NBIS，高风险资金可博弈FLY的火箭技术突破。
@rocket5010 不是全仓配置。我只对类似 $NBIS 这样的标的感到安心。 如果你有多余资金，$FLY 如果能在未来一两年内造出可重复使用的中型运载火箭，那简直就是一个字面意义上的10倍潜力股(moonshot)。 风险水平很高，但如果成功了，持有它是一件很有趣的事。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rocket5010 Not a full port. I'd only be comfortable with something like $NBIS. If you have extra, $FLY is just a literal 10x moonshot if they can make a re-usable medium lift rocket in the next year or two. Risk levels are high, but it's a fun thing to own in case it works.
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分析$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的潜力，认为其风险回报优于$RKLB。
自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资论点，现在分享如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的竞争对手是 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，较当前（44 亿美元市值）增长 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿美元的市值估算基于 $RKLB 的估值倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的订单积压）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下，毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列火箭的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的风险。看空者指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险... 他们应该问的问题是：诺斯罗普 (Northrop) 和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普，与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的发射公司之间的联合开发 (Co-development)。 诺斯罗普此前曾拥有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前运行正常，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚在 2026-2027 年可由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载火箭），这已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的订单积压以及美国“金穹”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，购买 Firefly 的风险回报比是合理的，前提是公司在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大的护城河，成为下一个 SpaceX。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，但我认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普合作存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的机会高于正常水平。） 显然，Rocket Lab 实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的成功概率更高，但这已经反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，相比之下 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿美元。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。另外，我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人 (Rocketman) 本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90% 以上的机会实现可重复使用中型运载火箭飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，只是因为太空 TAM（总可寻址市场）因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is: Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket. The only one that exists is SpaceX. They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC) More details: The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog). In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this. So now the only question is, can FLY make it work? After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong... The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work? This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company. Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off. However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly. -> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher. And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part. But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst. So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent. (I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop). Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap. I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets. I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself. _ Output: By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control. Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale. In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.
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NBIS 机构持仓低，预计回调时机构将大幅买入，半年内或达300美元。
@soulbiri1 @EndicottInvests $NBIS 的机构持股比例也极低，约为 38%，因此他们可能会在任何回调或散户恐慌时尝试买入约 20% 的流通盘（正常水平为 60-75%）。 未来 6 个月内甚至可能触及 300 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 @EndicottInvests The institutional ownership of $NBIS is extremely low as well like 38% so they’ll likely try and buy 20% of the float (~normal is 60-75%) on any dip or retail panic. Might even hit $300 in the next 6 months.
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看好$NBIS营收增长及投资组合潜力，类比$HOOD与$MSFT。
$NBIS 是唯一一家在营收增长上做得完全正确的 Neocloud（新云厂商）。此外，其分部估值之和（Sum of Parts）未来可能高于核心业务，这将推动股价从当前水平上涨 1000% 以上。 像 FTX 那样在扩张过程中进行此类布局的企业，即便在低迷期也价值数千亿美元。（例如，FTX 曾持有 $HOOD、Anthropic、Dave、Solana 和比特币，这些资产均上涨了 1000% 以上）。 我常将其基本面营收与 $HOOD 做比较（$HOOD 季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增至 10 亿美元，估值达 1300 亿美元），因为 $NBIS 在一两年内就会超越这一水平，且起步市值相似。但像 $MSFT 一样，他们在维持核心业务的同时，也做出了 Clickhouse、Toloka、Avride 等优秀投资。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is the only Neocloud that’s doing everything right growing revenue and on top of that, their sum of parts might be worth more than the core business down the line, which would drive it to 1000%+ from here. Businesses that have done it while scaling like FTX before they went under would be worth hundreds of billions now even in a downturn. (Eg. ftx owned $HOOD, Anthropic, Dave, Solana, Bitcoin that all went up over 1000%+). I often compare the fundamentals revenue wise with HOOD though that went $150m quarterly to $1B quarterly with a $130B valuation) because $NBIS would surpass that in just a year or two and started at similar market caps. But like $MSFT they made some great investments like Clickhouse, Toloka, Avride while sustaining their core business.
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博主祝贺他人收益并调侃自己持仓表现不及对方。
@platochi 我记得你在做完尽职调查(DD)后，一直在评论区推荐 $PATH，恭喜你的收益！ 我的 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 看涨预测目前仅上涨 130%-170%，所以我有点嫉妒你跑赢了我。
原推 ↗英文原文
@platochi I remember you kept calling out $PATH in the comments after you did the DD, congrats on the return! My $CIFR and $NBIS calls are only up 130%-170% so I’m a little jealous you outperformed me.
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博主认为NBIS是下一个微软，估值被严重低估。
$NBIS 是正在崛起的下一个微软。 - 凭借 55-75% 的毛利率，季度营收正从 1 亿美元向 1-2 年内的 20-30 亿美元+ 扩张 - 大量持有下一代公司（如为 Anthropic 提供动力的 Clickhouse）的股权 - Mag7 AI 计算的基础设施。 完全被低估。https://t.co/dOUiOyKkyd
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is the next Microsoft in the making. - Scaling from $100M quarterly revenue to $2B-3B+ in 1-2 years off 55-75% gross margin - Large ownership of next generational companies like Clickhouse (powers Anthropic) - Infrastructure of Mag7 AI Compute. Completely undervalued. https://t.co/dOUiOyKkyd
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分享NBIS两周内涨14%的持仓收益并调侃市场预期。
@EestiRadar 自从我发布关于 $NBIS 的 ETF 帖子以来，大约两周内股价上涨了 14%，从 $106 涨到了 $121。 你们抱有什么样的期望呢 lol？
原推 ↗英文原文
@EestiRadar $NBIS is up 14% in like 2 weeks since I posted the ETF from $106 to $121. What kind of expectations are you having lol?
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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IREN产能规模远超NBIS等对手
@cmachdop $IREN 的吉瓦(GW)产能规模远大于 $NBIS 等其他竞争对手，即便他们目前没有任何订单。
原推 ↗英文原文
@cmachdop The amount of GW capacity $IREN has is a lot larger than other players like $NBIS even if they have no deals
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分享NBIS、CIFR、IREN及WYFI等AI算力相关个股观点。
@DeepValueBagger @__visionxry__ 有道理，我最看好的前三只是 $NBIS、$CIFR（在“七大科技巨头”+融资方面类似于轻量版 Nebius），以及 $IREN（仅因其 GW 级算力容量及未来与“七大科技巨头”的交易）。 我只是想补充一些沿着 Neocloud 路线的标的，比如 $WYFI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @__visionxry__ Makes sense, top three favorites for me were $NBIS, $CIFR being Nebius-lite in terms of Mag7 + funding, and then $IREN just for the GW capacity + future mag7 deals. I just thought I'd add some more down the Neocloud line like $WYFI.
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分析WYFI低成本改造优势及小市值重估潜力
确实。玩笑归玩笑（抱歉吓到 @DeepValueBagger），$WYFI 的优势可能在于其改造设施的成本比竞争对手新建（greenfield）数据中心低40%，且他们不依赖租赁。与矿企相比，它是纯高算力(HPC)标的。劣势是他们不像 $NBIS 那样自建编排(orchestration)堆栈，也不像 $IREN 那样扩张迅速。但他们拥有基础设施而非租赁。这是垂直整合的硬件与物理层 HPC 基础设施。我基于所有 Neocloud 都有增长空间，且考虑到 $13 亿的小市值，认为其有更大的重估空间。Clear Street 分析师给出的 $51 目标价可能在数字测算上更专业，建议参考他们的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
True. Jokes aside (sorry to scare @DeepValueBagger) $WYFI's edge is probably converting facilities for 40% lower cost than greenfield (built from scratch) data centers that others need to build, and they're not lease heavy. It's also pure play HPC compared to miners. Downside is they don't build their own orchestration stack like $NBIS or scale as fast as $IREN. But they own the infrastructure instead of leasing. Vertically integrated HPC infrastructure for hardware and psychical only. I'm just going off the assumption there's room to grow across all Neoclouds and there's more room for re-rating considering the small $1.3B market cap size. The analysts at Clear Street that gave a $51 PT probably do a better job with number crunching so I'd just refer to them.
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建议在Neoclouds回调时买入，并分享了NBIS和WYFI的建仓点位。
@NoahIAvest 是的，面对这类噪音，我会直接在Neoclouds（新云）回调时买入。 $NBIS 在下跌5%时是极佳的买入点。我最终在那次4%的回调中建立了 $WYFI 的头寸。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NoahIAvest Yeah I would just buy the dips on Neoclouds from noise like this. $NBIS was an amazing buy on the 5% drop. Finally started positions in $WYFI on that 4% drop.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
原推 ↗英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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$NBIS 因客户多元及软件优势成赢家
@babyfolio $NBIS 是此类新闻的明确赢家，因为其多元化的客户群将抵消任何建设/收入滞后。并且可能拥有最佳的软件编排堆栈，以最大化 GPU 利用率。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio $NBIS is the clear winner from news like this since they have a diversified customer base which would offset any buildout/revenue lag. And probably the best software orchestration stack to maximize GPU utilization
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借回调买入NBIS和WYFI，认为机构正从散户手中积累AI算力基建股。
@babyfolio 是的，我正在利用这次机会买入 $NBIS (-5.37%) 并建立 $WYFI (-3%) 的头寸。AI 算力基础设施中，针对“七巨头”(Mag7) 的机构持股比例较低，因此他们可能利用这些机会从散户手中积累筹码。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio Yeah I'm using this opportunity to buy $NBIS (-5.37%) and create positions in $WYFI (-3%) now. Institutional ownership is low on the infra of mag7 for AI compute so they probably use these opportunities to accumulate from retail.
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分析NBIS因客户多元及软件优势，利用率表现优于IREN和ORCL。
这是多种因素混合的结果，文章没有提供细分数据。一个主要原因是建设/利用率与收入增长之间存在滞后。$NBIS 在这方面的表现优于 $IREN 和 $ORCL，因为他们拥有高度多元化的客户群 + 更好的软件编排能力以实现更高的整体利用率。我不同意这主要是由托管(colocation)造成的，因为导致甲骨文利润率下滑的是同时发生的4-5个不同因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a mix of things, the article doesn't provide breakdown. A large reason was because of lag between buildout/utilization and revenue ramp. $NBIS does better than $IREN $ORCL in the regards that they have a heavily diversified customer base + better software orchestration to achieve higher utilization throughout. I disagree that it was mainly due to colocation since it's 4-5 different things at once causing margin loss for oracle.
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对比NBIS与ORCL，指出客户多元化有助于降低集中度风险并提升利用率。
没错，这确实揭示了集中度风险，也说明了为何拥有高度多元化客户基础的“新云”厂商（如 $NBIS）可能会比那些没有多元化的厂商拥有更好的经济效益。 $ORCL 的部分亏损源于建设周期与利用率之间的时间差，因为其几乎所有订单都来自 OpenAI 等 4-5 家客户。需求是存在的，但存在收入滞后。 以 $NBIS 为例，其客户高度多元化，很可能在建设过程中就实现高利用率。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep that's true and just alerts to concentration risk and why Neoclouds (eg. $NBIS) that have heavily diversified customer base would likely have better economics than those that don't. Part of $ORCL's loss was time between buildout/utilization since virtually all of its deals came from 4-5 customers like OpenAI. Demand exists, but there was revenue lag. $NBIS for example is heavily diversified and would likely achieve the high utilization throughout buildout.
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坚持独立思考，视TrumpRX为NBIS等公司护城河的验证。
@foogleman1234 忽略噪音并坚持独立思考是很好的。例如，我喜欢 $HIMS，但如果我认为某件事（如 TrumpRX）确实是净负面因素，我会指出它是逆风。在这里，我只将其视为对 $NBIS 和其他公司的利好，以及对其护城河的验证。
原推 ↗英文原文
@foogleman1234 It's good to ignore the noise and do your own thinking. For example, I liked $HIMS but I would call out that something is a headwind (eg. TrumpRX) if I thought it actually was a net negative. Here I just see it as a positive for $NBIS and others and a validation of moat.
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甲骨文GPU服务亏损凸显新型云在资本效率与利润率上的优势，利好NBIS等。
为什么$ORCL在GPU即服务（GPU-as-a-Service）方面面临的挑战（据泄露消息）实际上对Nebius等新型云（Neoclouds）是利好。 超大规模云服务商在GPU经济学上的挣扎，加强了专业化新型云的论点。 这对$NBIS、$WYFI、$IREN、$CIFR、$CRWV等股票来说是一个惊人的机会： 简而言之（据传闻）： 甲骨文面临亏损源于： - 客户增长前的低利用率（闲置产能） - 巨额前期资本支出（Blackwell GPU） - 沉重的 overhead（运营开销） - 折扣定价 结果：甲骨文的GPU计算业务出现负毛利率。 这对甲骨文是利空，对新型云是利好：这仅仅表明 1. 复杂性的证明 = 护城河的验证。 像$NBIS这样的新型云做得更好，这是一个真正的竞争优势和利润率机会（这就是为什么$MSFT选择与Nebius签约而不是自建）。 2. 资本效率优势。 新型云使用租赁/托管以获得灵活性（例如NBIS在Patmos和Verne），并通过工作负载分配保持高利用率（而甲骨文在利用率上挣扎）。 3. 外包需求增加 如果甲骨文和超大规模云服务商在建设上遇到困难，他们可能会将工作负载转移到新型云并签署更多合同（例如MSFT与CRWV）。 4. 甲骨文在此使用了折扣价格。新型云可以在优化利润率的基础上进行理性定价。 5. 定制基础设施提高利润率 像Nebius这样的新型云拥有用于GPU调度的定制编排堆栈，大量内部软件和自动化以最大化利用率和产出，从而维持50-70%的毛利率，相比之下ORCL则不然。 这对甲骨文和超大规模云服务商的建设是利空，但实际上对$CRWV、$NBIS等专业新型云提供商是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius. Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds. This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others: TLDR: (from rumors) Oracle faced a loss from: - Low utilization (idle capacity) before customer ramp - Massive upfront CapEx (Blackwell GPUs) - Heavy overhead - Discount pricing Result: Negative gross margins on GPU compute for Oracle. This is negative for Oracle, positive for Neoclouds: This is just goes to show 1. Proof of Complexity = Validation of Moat. Neoclouds like $NBIS do it better and this is an actual competitive moat and margin opportunity (This is why $MSFT went to Nebius to sign a deal instead of building it out themselves). 2. Capital Efficiency Advantage. Neoclouds use Leasing / colocation for flexibility (e.g. NBIS in Patmos & Verne), workload allocations to maintain high utilization (while Oracle struggled with utilization). 3. Outsourcing Demand Increases Oracle and Hyperscalers might shift workloads to Neoclouds and sign more contracts if they have trouble with buildout (eg. MSFT with CRWV) 4. Oracle used discount prices here. Neoclouds can just price rationally on top of optimizing their margins. 5. Custom Infra Increases Margins Neoclouds like Nebius have custom orchestration stacks for GPU scheduling, lot of internal software and automation to maximize utilization and yield to sustain 50-70% gross margins compared to ORCL. This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout but actually bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others.
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强烈建议买入NBIS，因其市值下上行潜力巨大且收入预期惊人。
@_visionarius 两者都是强力买入标的，尤其是 $NBIS，考虑到其当前市值下非对称的上行潜力。他们的前瞻性收入数据简直令人难以置信地惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_visionarius Both are strong buys, $NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap. Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
原推 ↗英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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交易对英伟达系利空，对AMD等供应链其他环节利好。
@yield_addicted 关于这笔交易，我认为总体偏负面：$NVDA、$CRWV（以英伟达为中心）。 总体偏正面（几乎其他所有标的）：$AMD、NBIS、CIFR、IREN、TSM 等。 护城河叙事逻辑发生变化，导致下跌 2.5% 是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric) Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc. The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.
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给出NBIS不同价位操作建议，并提及随新闻重估。
@heaty70 对于 $NBIS，低于 $145 是强力买入，$145-$170 区间为买入/持有。很难给出确切数字，但鉴于我在该价位卖出了 CC（看涨期权），$170 以上我会转为持有/卖出。显然，我会根据 $META / $CRWV 等新消息每周重新评估其估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@heaty70 Anything under $145 for $NBIS is a strong buy, $145-$170 Buy/Hold. Hard to give a figure but I'd switch it to hold/sell at $170+ since I did sell CC's at that strike. Obviously re-rating it weekly on new news like $META / $CRWV.
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类比云业务，认为$NBIS等AI算力基建商建成后利润将超预期。
@PronkDaniel 人们曾对 AWS、Azure、GCP 等说过类似的话，但它们最终成为了“七巨头”(Mag7) 的现金牛。当你将同样的商业模式应用于 AI 算力，并聚焦于 $NBIS 等公司时，在基础设施建设完成后，其盈利能力将超出人们的预期。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PronkDaniel People said that about it AWS, Azure, GCP and others but they turned out to be the cash cows of Mag7. When you take the same business but for AI compute then funnel it down to $NBIS and others, it will be more profitable than people think after buildout.
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认可RDDT和NBIS为优质云服务商
@rioferdy838 $RDDT 和 $NBIS 都是优秀的云服务提供商(CSP)，不错的选择
原推 ↗英文原文
@rioferdy838 Both $RDDT and $NBIS are great CSPs, good choice
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对BITF持观望态度，因研究不足暂不给明确观点。
@foogleman1234 所有新云/挖矿股可能都在买入/持有之间浮动，包括 $BITF。我还没有对它做足够的尽职调查(DD)来给出像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 那样明确的方向性观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@foogleman1234 All neocloud/miners probably float between buy/hold including $BITF. Haven’t done enough DD on it yet to give a good directional opinion like $NBIS or $CIFR.
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作者对比期权卖方与突破交易，建议散户构建高确信度组合。
我通常不做这种期权卖方策略，因为我更喜欢突破交易以获取更高利润（例如在$90买入$NBIS并持有至上涨50%+）。 我的许多对冲基金和量化交易员朋友在他们的个人七到八位数账户中进行CSP波段操作，我只是揭示其操作方法。 对大多数人来说，只需构建一个高确信度股票的投资组合，并让其在随时间推移中增值即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
I normally don't this type of option writing strategy since I like breakout trading for higher profits (eg. buying $NBIS at $90 and letting it ride 50%+) A lot of my hedge fund + quant trader friends do CSP swing in their personal 7-8 fig ports, and I'm just revealing how it's done. For most people, just build a portfolio of high conviction stocks and let it go up in value over time.
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
原推 ↗英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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作者持有NBIS，视估值决定操作，因长期不确定性采用短期交易框架。
我的意思是，目前 $NBIS 被低估了，我只是持有它，所以即使股价跳涨到 150 美元我也不会卖出。但如果它明天随机跳涨到 1000 亿美元市值或每股 300 美元以上，我可能会卖出并寻找低位重新买入。 这真的取决于具体情况。 五年后没人真正知道结果。超大规模云服务器芯片上线后，Neoclouds 可能会像 $SMCI 那样在季度营收超 50 亿美元时面临利润率压缩和营收增速放缓。 或者它们可能成为新的 AWS。我还无法做出这种预测，这就是为什么我采用 6 个月至 1 年的时间框架进行操作。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean right now $NBIS is undervalued I'm just holding it so I wouldn't sell even if it jumped to $150. But if it randomly jumps to $100B marketcap tomorrow or $300+ a share, I would probably sell look to rebuy lower. It really depends. 5 years down the road nobody really knows. Hyperscaler chips come online, Neoclouds might pull an $SMCI at 5B+ quarterly revenue with margin compression and less revenue ramp. Or they might become the new AWS. I can't make that prediction yet, which is why I do things in 6 months -1 year timframes.
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分享基于图表的波段交易策略，强调结合基本面与宏观分析的重要性。
我如何用图表进行波段交易，第二部分：短期（几周）+ 短中期（几个月）。 长期部分我会在另一篇帖子中讨论。 例1：$RKLB。仅凭直觉，在$40支撑位买入似乎是个好选择，$54卖出。通常下半部分（虚线）如$44也是不错的买入点，因为风险回报比良好，但你不会买到绝对底部。 你可以对像Rocketlab这样的股票这样做，因为长期来看，如果你持有足够久，即使它跌破$40，鉴于其基本面是强力买入（尽管目前略微高估），它很可能会恢复。 例2：$AMZN - 现在用正股买入是很好的选择。如果它跌破$210，你可以使用LEAPS（长期期权）。例如低于$200时，使用期限较短的看涨期权。 _ 了解基本面、宏观环境以及催化剂是否实质性影响也非常重要。如果未来收入大幅下降或行业利润率压缩，这些线条毫无意义。 很多时候它们因更非理性的因素下跌，例如GOOGL与苹果搜索之争，或者整体市场SPY下跌，但在这些情况下，如果没有实质性差异且公司持续增长，它们通常会再次上涨。再次强调，因人而异，在抄底时机上你需要分析图表以外的更多因素。这只是我所做工作的一部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2: Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month). I'll do long term ones in another post. Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom. You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now. Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls. _ Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses. Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing. Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.
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对比CRWV与CIFR/NBIS在Meta交易后的表现差异及估值逻辑。
$CRWV 在 Meta 交易后并没有像 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 那样大幅下跌。 CIFR 与 NBIS 相当可比，因为它们的融资价格均高于当前市值约 40% 以上，且债务较低并拥有超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的交易。 这通常适用于同一行业且相对估值相似的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV didn't really drop after the Meta deal like $CIFR and $NBIS did though CIFR is pretty comparable to NBIS in the sense they raised ~40%+ above current values and low debt + hyperscaler deals This usually applies for companies in the same sector + similar relative valuations
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通过对比NBIS与CIFR走势，论证基本面改变后图表模式对股价预测的有效性。
我常调侃图表分析，但有时它对基于模式的推理（非技术分析 TA）确实有帮助。 历史不会重演，但相似行业的公司往往押韵。 当基本面发生重大变化时： 例如 $NBIS（64->100->86）与 $CIFR（+32% -> -18% -> 上涨）在 $170亿 MSFT 交易和 GOOGL 30亿交易后的表现。 我们可能会看到 CIFR 在回调后像 NBIS 一样上涨。 它遵循了相同的模式：先上涨 32%，然后下跌 18%，现在它开始像 NBIS 一样攀升。 同样的逻辑也适用于财报后的 AVGO（先回调，然后大幅反弹）和现在的 ORCL（财报亮眼，回调，然后大幅反弹），因为基本面发生了改变。 我想把一些 Reddit 风格的图表分析带到 X 上，但在我看来，这是图表分析真正有用的一次。
原推 ↗英文原文
I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA). History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors. With things material to fundamentals: Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal. We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip. It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS. Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed. Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.
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卖出CRWV获利，看好IREN/NBIS算力需求，拟重估CRWV长期价值。
我昨天以 $CRWV $122.5 买入，今天以 $138.1 卖出。纯粹是时机运气好。我还没来得及深入分析 META 的合同，但鉴于 META 和其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)目前急需算力，这对 $IREN 和 $NBIS 来说是非常看涨的。虽然我卖出了，但我吃完沙拉后可能会花一两个小时研究一下合同和估值。个人而言，我一直更喜欢其他新云(neoclouds)公司而非 CRWV，主要是因为债务利息问题，但也许 META 的合同会让我重新考虑将其作为长期持有标的，我需要进一步研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
I had $CRWV yesterday $122.5, and sold it $138.1 today. Just got lucky with timing. I didn't have enough time to do a deep dive into the META contract yet, but just because META and other hyperscalers are looking for compute now this is insanely bullish for $IREN $NBIS. I did sell but I'll probably spend an hour or two to look into the contract + valuation after I eat some salad. Personally I've always liked the other neoclouds more than crwv just cause of debt interest, but maybe the meta contracts would make me reconsider this as a long, ill need to look into it more
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建议对长期持仓进行正向定投，若估值未反映营收潜力则继续持有加仓。
@taleino93 补充一点，对于长期持有(long term holds)的标的，你应该进行正向定投(cost average up)。如果基本面利好显著，比如 $CRWV 之于 Meta 或 $NBIS 之于 MSFT，只要你认为上涨行情尚未完全反映未来的营收潜力，就继续持有并在回调时加仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
@taleino93 Adding on to this, for long term holds, you should cost average up. If it's materially positive like Meta for $CRWV or MSFT of $NBIS, just hold it and buy more if you think forward rev potential is not priced in from a rally.
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强调仓位管理重要性，举例说明分批建仓与波段操作策略。
谢谢！忘了在上面补充一点：投资组合配置极其重要，以防你时机把握不准或发生意外，从而能进行成本平均。例如，如果你有10万美元的投资组合，其中3万美元现金。$NBIS 从117美元跌至112美元时，你可以投入1.5万美元。如果从112美元跌至105美元，再投入1.5万美元。如果从105美元跌至95美元，你可以将那3万美元转为看涨期权。如果你仅持有股票且风险承受能力较低（例如25%的仓位分配），就不应该想“我应该全仓买入，因为它涨了3%”。你投资组合中25%的部分获得3%的利润已经很不错了。显然这只是例子，针对像NBIS这样高确信度的标的，我对$PATH 不太了解。对于像$CRWV 这样的标的，我昨天在跌至120美元时买入，然后在139-140美元左右卖出，并可能等待另一个入场点，同时持有其他新云厂商如NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Forgot to add above that portfolio positioning is extremely important just in case you get timing wrong + something unexpected happens so you can cost average. So if you have $100 portfolio for example, $30k cash. $NBIS drops $117-> $112, you can do like $15k at that level. If it drops $112 -> $105, do another $15k. If it drop $105 -> $95, you can switch that $30k to calls. If you're doing only shares with less risk tolerance eg. 25% allocation, you shouldn't think "i should have full ported it went up 3%". 3% profit off 25% of your portfolio is already good. Obviously just examples, from something higher conviction like NBIS, I don't really know about $PATH. For something like $CRWV I actually bought yesterday on some drop to $120 then sold $139-140ish, and will likely wait for another entry point while I hold other neoclouds like NBIS.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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建议分批建仓NBIS，避免单日全仓买入。
@jakub_cyferski 任何时候都是好时机，只要进行成本平均(Cost Average)操作，不要在一天内全仓买入 $NBIS 即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jakub_cyferski It's always a good time, just cost average and don't all in $NBIS in a single day.
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征集社区最高确信度且具200%潜力的AI基建股，以构建观察列表。
众包征集 X 社区最高确信度的股票——如下文中的 $NBIS 或 $RR。 仅限未来 6 个月内具备 200%+ 潜力的标的。 📈 你的单一 #1 最高确信度选股及逻辑是什么？ 这将有助于建立超大规模建设赢家（Hyperscaling winners）的社区观察列表。 https://t.co/qYO574waHR
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Crowdsourcing the X community’s highest-conviction stocks — names like $NBIS or $RR below. Only 200%+ potential plays over the next 6 months. 📈 What's your single #1 highest conviction pick and thesis? Would be helpful to build a community watchlist for hyperscaling winners. https://t.co/qYO574waHR
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博主表示RKLB和NBIS可占其投资组合大部分仓位。
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS 是我非常乐意让其占据我投资组合大部分仓位的标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS is something I'd be extremely comfortable with comprising majority of my port.
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博主感谢粉丝创意支持，分享互动乐趣。
我简直无语了！冰箱上的打印图是我两个月前开始用 X 以来见过的最棒的东西。在 $NBIS 和 $HIMS 等股票突破前，帮助他人并分享我的观点让我乐在其中。感谢大家的支持，也感谢 @Neat_Lama 带来的欢乐氛围！
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I'm at a loss for words! The fridge print is the best thing I've seen on X since I started 2m ago. I have a fun time helping others and sharing my thoughts on stuff from $NBIS to $HIMS before any breakouts. Thanks for the support everyone and @Neat_Lama for the fun vibes!
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称赞关于NBIS的动漫类比
@soulbiri1 关于 $NBIS 的动漫类比很到位
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 solid anime analogy for $NBIS
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根据风险偏好配置高增长股与稳健资产，无需全仓。
如果你想追逐更多收益，我会建议卖出你的“七巨头(Mag7)”去买入像 $NBIS 这样的高增长股票。如果你需要照顾家庭且无法承担任何风险，持有 SPY/QQQ/“七巨头(Mag7)”并让财富随时间缓慢复利增长也无可厚非。答案取决于你的风险承受能力。我对 $NBIS 有十足的信心，但你始终需要考虑那不到1%的黑天鹅(Black Swan)情景。像 $HOOD 这样的股票可能会出现80%的回撤，而“七巨头(Mag7)”的回撤幅度会小一些。此外，没人说你必须全仓！你可以始终只将投资组合的25%分配给某只股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS. If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time. Answer depends on your risk tolerance. I have full conviction in $NBIS but there's always the <1% black swan scenario you need to consider. There could always be a 80% drawdown in something like $HOOD but something like Mag7 would have a less drawdown. Also nobody said you had to full port! You can always allocate like 25% of your port to a stock
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认为ETOR被错估，偏好冷门股，指出市场过度拥挤于BMNR和NBIS。
@MakhmudovAkbar 哈哈，我认为市场完全错误定价了 $ETOR，现在可能正在进行大量的税务收割(tax harvesting)。 我尝试寻找像 ETOR 和 VIRT 这样人们不太关注的标的，它们通常表现不错。感觉 X 上的所有人都在关注 $BMNR 或 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah lol, I think the market is completely pricing $ETOR wrong and it's probably a lot of tax harvesting going on right now. I try and find stuff people don't really touch much like ETOR and VIRT and they usually play out well. Feels like everyone on X is on $BMNR or $NBIS
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
原推 ↗英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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认为NBIS估值偏低，建议当前加仓。
@blankeymonkey $NBIS 相对于远期营收/利润被严重低估。目前是很好的加仓标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@blankeymonkey $NBIS is incredibly undervalued relative to forward revenue/earnings. Great add currently
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调侃持仓69股NBIS以在券商面前展示存在感。
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 确实，有时候亏钱只是为了在券商面前展示你的“统治力”。 所以当别人为了风险管理而窥探你的投资组合时，他们会看到 69 股 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 Ah true, sometimes it's better to lose money just to assert dominance on your brokerage. So when people peer into your portfolio for risk management they see 69 $NBIS shares
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建议通过虚值期权和组合保证金降低行权风险，追求每周1%的可持续收益。
关键在于，如果 $AMZN 触及 207.5 的溢价位，或 $NBIS 触及 96 的溢价位，你应该求着被行权（assigned），这些也是你可以买入看涨期权（calls）的价位。我的建议是选择更虚值（OTM）的合约并使用组合保证金（portfolio margin），而不是像 $AMZN 215 那样选择更接近行权价的合约，从而降低每周被行权的风险。除了 HIMX、CIFR 和可能的 META，我提到的这几个行权价被触及的可能性较小；如果真触及了，你应持有股票进行波段交易（swing trade）。但正如你指出的，每周约 1% 的收益对大多数人来说更可持续。
原推 ↗英文原文
The thing is if $AMZN ever hits $207.5 - premium or $NBIS ever hits $96 - premium you should beg to get assigned and those are levels you might buy calls on. Going more OTM and using portfolio margin is my suggestion instead of going closer to strike like $215 on $AMZN and having higher risk of assignment every week. My strikes are less likely aside from hims/CIFR/ possibly meta up there are the three I'd say, and if they do hit, you want to hold the stock for a swing trade. But yeah as you pointed out 1% a week or so is a lot more sustainable for most people
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对比持有与期权策略，建议NBIS跌至96美元时买入LEAPS。
提醒一下，这全都是短期资本利得税！因此，持有股票获得的利润可能高于这种期权卖出策略。有时直接逢低买入 Weebius/$NBIS 更好，因为如果它单日下跌 6% 然后恢复至平盘，6% 的利润优于看跌期权(Put)的权利金。不过 $96 的行权价确实很安全，如果 $NBIS 再次跌至该水平，我会大量买入长期期权(LEAPS)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a reminder that this is all short term capital gains tax! So profits holding a stock might be more than this option selling style. Sometimes it's better to just buy the dip on Weebius/ $NBIS because if it drops 6% in a day then recovers to flat, cause 6% profit is better than premiums from puts. But yeah $96 strike is pretty safe, I'd switch buy a ton of leaps if they ever dropped to that level again on $NBIS.
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
原推 ↗英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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建议利用NBIS或CIFR等高增长标的实现资产复利，而非止步于FIRE。
@wallstreetbets 太多人盯着财务独立与提早退休(FIRE)，却没意识到他们仍可以像南希·佩洛西那样，通过 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这类标的，将 $5M 的投资组合复利增长至 $50m。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wallstreetbets Too many people looking at FIRE and not realizing they can still compound their $5M portfolio to $50m like Nancy Pelosi with stuff like $NBIS or $CIFR
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建议全仓押注NBIS，认为其股价大概率从当前水平上涨。
@12345tgrf 我的意思是，如果必须全仓押注某只股票，我会选择 $NBIS。这取决于你的风险承受能力，但从股价走势来看，很难想象它不会从当前水平继续上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@12345tgrf I mean if I had to full port something it would be $NBIS. Depends on your risk tolerance, but share wise it's hard to see it ever not rising from these levels.
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建议通过X平台深度研究捕捉NBIS等新云动量交易机会。
@Liquidity4Life 拥有这样的心态很棒。230% 的回报率简直令人惊叹，请继续保持你现在的做法。 但在 X 上获取更多深度研究(DD)确实有帮助，这样你就能捕捉到像 $NBIS 或新云(neoclouds)这样的突破和动量交易机会，而这些通常是你不会发现的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Liquidity4Life That's a great mindset to have. 230% is an absolutely amazing return, just keep doing what you're doing. But it does help to take in more DD on X so you can catch breakouts and momentum trades like $NBIS or neoclouds that you normally wouldn't have discovered.
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长期仅投RKLB，短期看好NBIS和CIFR的超大规模扩张。
@Melissa09744266 除非是 $RKLB，否则我不做长期投资，因为太空领域关乎国家安全，拥有巨大的护城河，且仅次于 SpaceX。不过，我预计 4-5 年后 AWS 和 GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商芯片可能会准备好。在那之前，我们仍处于以 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 为代表的超大规模扩张模式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Melissa09744266 I don't long term invest unless it's $RKLB since space is a national security issue, huge moat m, and #2 second to SpaceX. But yeah I'd expect in 4-5 years AWS, GOOGL hyperscaler chips might be ready around then. Until then, we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR.
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看好IREN年底前达80美元，认为NBIS将翻倍。
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK 鉴于 $IREN 和这些新云(neoclouds)的增长速度，80美元是一个极其保守的目标价。我预计 $NBIS 至少会翻倍至225美元以上，因此 IREN 很可能在年底前触及80美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK $80 is an extremely conservative price target given how fast $IREN and these neoclouds are growing. I'd expect $NBIS at least to double to $225+ so IREN would likely hit $80 before end of year.
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博主认为 Grok 对 NBIS、IREN 和 CRWV 的分析很准。
@grok @castorastuto Grok 对 $NBIS $IREN $CRWV 的分析相当准确，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@grok @castorastuto grok is pretty accurate with the analysis of $NBIS $IREN $CRWV lol
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对比CRWV高息债务与NBIS优越融资条款
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV 的债务利率超过 9%，而 $NBIS 的融资条款要好得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV has 9%+ interest rate on debt while $NBIS fundraising terms are miles better
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看好NBIS/CIFR，拒绝参与NUAI的恶性稀释。
@Lotterystonks @GClandesti37321 我很乐意在 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 以良好条款完成稀释并实现规模化后投资。但如果 $NUAI 以低于市场价95%的价格稀释现有持有者10亿美元以上，并将规模扩大至30多亿股，那我就不想参与。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Lotterystonks @GClandesti37321 I'm happy to invest like $NBIS or $CIFR after they completed their dilution at good terms and are scaling. But if $NUAI are diluting existing holders $1B+ and scaling that to 3B+ more shares at 95% under market rate, then I don't want to participate.
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博主区分成长与价值投资，推荐不同周期的个股组合。
@DeepIceValue 哈哈，我看到了 $NVO 和 $UNH，然后看了你的主页，意识到你更偏向价值投资(Value Investing)。如果让我选，1-2 年周期我会选 $NBIS 或 $TSM。3 年周期我会选 $RKLB。价值投资组合(Value Investing Basket)会是：$TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeepIceValue lol I saw NVO and UNH and then looked at your profile and realized it was more so value investing. If I had to choose, would be $NBIS or $TSM 1-2 years. Then $RKLB for a 3 year timeframe. Value investing basket would be: $TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO
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买入IREN，看好其获超大规模云服务商合同潜力。
@cronked 谢谢！回复晚了，但在下跌后我买入了一些 $IREN。它比 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 更具投机性，但我预计未来会有超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同。显然 $NBIS 的非对称回报(asymmetric return)潜力最大，但拥有其他新云(neoclouds)公司也不错。
原推 ↗英文原文
@cronked Thanks! late reply, but I bought some $IREN after the drop. It's more speculative than $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, but I'd expect a hyperscaler contract down the road. Obviously $NBIS is most asymmetric return but wouldn't be bad to have other neoclouds up there too
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博主自述偏好短期交易，承认长期持有NVDA或NBIS回报更高。
@babyfolio 哈哈，我个人只做短期交易/动量持有。我确信人们只要持有 $NVDA 或 $NBIS 五年就能获得更高的回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio lol I personally just do shorter term trading/momentum holds. I'm sure people would get higher returns just holding $NVDA or $NBIS for 5 years
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NBIS因微软大单、优质资产及强劲财务成为首选。
是的，$NBIS 是毫无悬念的首选。$170 亿的微软 (MSFT) 交易为期 5 年，因此收入爬坡最快，这还不包括更多交易。他们拥有大量优质公司，例如 30% 的 Clickhouse（Anthropic 使用）。资产负债表强劲（例如已筹集 $138 亿+，仅 $40 亿+），不像 $CRWV 那样有重大利息负担。NBIS 做全栈 (Full Stack)，业务更多元化，毛利率高。在 260 亿市值下，整体价值极其惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, $NBIS is #1 choice by a longshot. $17B MSFT deal was over 5 years so fastest revenue ramp, not including more deals. They own a ton of great companies like 30% Clickhouse, which Anthropic uses. Great balance sheet (eg. $4B+ raised $138+), no major interest like $CRWV. NBIS does full stack, more diversified businesses already, large gross margins. All-around such an incredible value at 26B.
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解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
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博主表示愿对ETF加杠杆，计划减仓ASTS，持有LTC/BTC不追高NBIS。
@soulbiri1 哈哈，对于上面的投资组合ETF，我甚至愿意使用1.5倍的杠杆。在$ASTS反弹32%后，我会考虑减仓。在这些价位上，我依然看好$LTC和$BTC，所以不会为了买入更多$NBIS而减仓它们。记得卖出看涨期权(CC)！
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Lol the portfolio etf above id be comfortable 1.5x margin. I'd be fine trimming $ASTS after 32% recovery. I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim for more $NBIS. Make sure to sell CC's!
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分享期权卖方策略经验：选对券商、小户用保证金、精通IV与财报风险。
补充一下关于学习期权卖方策略的讨论： 1. 券商选择极其重要，大资金账户切勿使用 $HOOD。他们声称免费，但可能是期权交易中最差的券商，因为他们将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，并通过糟糕的成交执行来赚取你的钱。除非你在Mag7或SPY上卖出低点差的现金担保看涨期权(Cash-Secured Calls, CCs)或现金担保看跌期权(Cash-Secured Puts, CSPs)，否则请使用 $IBKR 进行订单执行，即使你以最低价格卖出，他们也能提供最好的成交。看似损失几美元，但每份合约0.2-0.4美元的执行差异能带来数千美元的差别。 2. 如果是小账户，我建议用保证金(Margin)代替2倍杠杆ETF，因为后者存在波动率衰减(Volatility Decay)。（你可以谷歌搜索为什么不要长期持有2倍杠杆ETF）。使用保证金有清算风险，但仍优于杠杆ETF。帖子中应该已经提到过这一点。 3. 学习股票的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)。例如，$HOOD 通常每天波动不超过4-6%。$NBIS 通常每天波动不超过7%。$TSM 很少出现单日4%以上的波动。如果你在 $NBIS 上卖出4天到期的CCs，例如6*4，卖出约$130的24%+虚值(Out-of-The-Money, OTM)期权（当前股价$107）通常是明智且盈利的。如果你卖出约$110的CCs，你是在要求股票被行权(Call Away)，这通常是你试图卖出股票时的策略。了解催化剂(Catalysts)也很重要。如果有财报(Earnings)发布，原始IV不再适用，因为股价可能大幅波动。财报期间的CCs策略完全不同。 4. CSP策略很好。如果你想用小账户大量操作，使用IBKR的投资组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)，这样你可以在很多股票上卖出大量深度虚值的看跌期权(Puts)。最大风险是你不知道自己在做什么，或者出现像今年早些时候全球突然加征20%关税导致市场崩盘这样的黑天鹅事件。我是从大量经验的角度说的，但新手可能会亏很多钱。IV规则同样适用。如果 $AMZN 通常每周波动+-5%，你可以卖出7% OTM的看跌期权，很可能每周获利。财报策略又是另一回事。解释起来很花时间，但也极其盈利。很多人持有$1M+资金，通过“更安全”的CSP或定投(DCA)每周被动赚取$10k。每季度财报周能赚大钱，除非股票像 $TTD 那样暴跌40%。但总体而言，如果你想复利增长财富+现有资产，学习这些很重要。 期权卖方策略是极佳的“房地产”（指卖出CCs或极深度虚值看跌期权），前提是你懂行且操作于 $IIBIT、$HOOD 等正规资产。否则风险巨大。总体上是给交易者很好的建议。只是我基于个人经验的一些想法和细微差别。
原推 ↗英文原文
So just to add to the discussion on learning option selling: 1. BROKERAGE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, NEVER USE $HOOD IF YOU HAVE A LARGE PORT. They claim it's free but it's probably one of the worst for option trading since they route your order to MMs and that's how they make money off of you by screwing your fills. Unless you're selling CC's CSP on Mag7/SPY with low spread, then use $IBKR for order execution since they give you the best fill even if you sell for the lowest price. It looks like you're losing a few dollars but .2 -.4 per contract on execution makes thousands of dollars of a difference. 2. If you're a smaller account, I'd recommend margin instead of 2x leveraged ETFs because of volatility decay. (you can use google to learn why you don't hold 2x leveraged ETFs for more than a short time). You have liquidation risks if you use margin but it's still better than leveraged ETFs. Think they pointed it out already in the post 3. Learn IV of stocks. Eg. Hood probably doesn't go up and down more than 4-6% a day normally. NBIS probably doesn't move more than 7% a day. TSM doesn't really move 4%+ a day. If you're selling CCs 4 days out like on NBIS, 6*4 for example, selling 24%+ OTM for like $130 if it's $107 is usually smart and profitable. If you sell CCs for like $110, you're asking for your stock to be called away and it's usually a strategy when you try and sell it. It's also important to learn catalysts. If there's an earnings coming up the original IV doesn't apply anymore since it could swing a lot higher or lower. Earnings CCs is completely different. 4. CSP is good. If you want to do a lot of this with a small account use IBKR portfolio margin, that way you can write a sell a ton of puts way OTM on a lot of stocks. Biggest risk is either you don't know what you're doing, or there's some black swan event like random 20% tarrifs on the world crashing the market earlier on in the year. Again I'm saying this from the perspective of tons of experience, but a newcomer might lose a lot of money. Same rule for IV applies. If AMZN is usually +-5% a week, you can sell PUTS 7% OTM and likely profit every week. Earnings again is a whole new strategy. it will probably take me a whole lot of time to explain this but it's extremely profitable too. A lot of people just sit on $1M+ and make like $10k a week passively doing "safer" CSPs or DCAing into positions. And earnings week every quarter is an insane amount of money. Unless a stock gets nuked like how TTD tanked 40%. But generally important to learn if you want to compound your wealth + existing assets. Option selling is great real estate (for selling CCs, or extremely OTM put selling) ONLY if you know what you're doing + do it on legitimate assets like IIBIT, HOOD. Otherwise there's tons of risks involved. Generally great advice overall for traders to learn. Just my thoughts and nuances to the lesson from personal experience.
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看好NBIS期权未平仓量激增，目标价150-200美元。
@babyfolio 哦，是的，它们仅用于日内/波段交易。我不相信其中一半的说法，但总体而言，应该是盈利的。 我同意 $NBIS 将涨至 150-200+ 美元。场外看跌期权(OTM Calls)的未平仓合约量实在太多了，所以接下来的走势应该会很有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio Oh yeah they're just for day/swing trading. I don't believe in half of them but overall, should be profitable. I agree with $NBIS to $150-200+ though. There's way too many open interest calls OTM so now things should be interesting.
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分享今日多只股票及加密货币的短期交易与长期持仓逻辑。
除了ORCL、$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR之外，今天这些是一些有趣的（短期）投资组合新增/交易和入场点，如果你好奇的话，附上我的一点点理由： GEMI ~$23.9 - 有趣的短期波段交易，随时波动+-~5%。不过从市值(Market Cap)来看被高估了。 AMZN ~$219.78 - 为4个月的时间框架进行定投(DCA)。 Figma ~$52.65 - 之前跌了4-5%，预计它会恢复。利润率在10亿美元营收基础上高达90%或类似的离谱数字。有趣的短期交易。 RKLB ~ $46.29 - 在$43 -> 53之间有趣的波段交易。 CRDO ~ $142.21 - 只是觉得它可能在10月反弹，定投(DCA)。 BTC ~ $109.5k - 不太在意+-5k的波动，这是为了长期持仓。 KLAR ~ $39.95 - 有趣的波段交易。 ETOR ~ $40.95 - 难以置信的低估lol。我可能会持有这东西$1M，而价格就保持不变。 当然，还在ORCL、CIFR、NBIS、IREN等股票上卖出了虚值(Out of the Money)的周权备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Apart from ORCL, $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR today these were some fun (short term) portfolio adds/trades and entries if you were curious + tiny bit of my reasoning: GEMI ~$23.9 - fun short term swing trade +- ~5% all the time. Overvalued though MC wise. AMZN ~$219.78 - DCA for 4 month timeframe. Figma ~$52.65 - was down like 4-5%, just expected it to recover. Profit margins are like 90% or something stupid off 1B revenue. Fun short term trade RKLB ~ $46.29 - fun swing trade between $43 -> 53. CRDO ~ $142.21 - Just thought it might rebound in Oct, DCA BTC ~ $109.5k - don't really care about +-5k too much, this is for long term positions. KLAR ~ $39.95 - fun swing trade ETOR ~ $40.95 - incredibly undervalued lol. I might end up with $1M of this thing and it will just stay the same price. And of course sold weekly covered calls on ORCL, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, etc... for way out of money strikes.
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博主分享期权交易盈利，但警告高风险，建议买入正股。
@pepemoonboy 谢谢！我今天做的每一笔 $NBIS $CIFR $IRRN 看涨期权(call) 都盈利了，涨幅大约在 5-20%。但我不会向任何人推荐短期看涨期权，因为风险真的很高。买入正股(shares) 才是正道！我只在我觉得是日内底部时才做看涨期权，而且我也稍微有点运气。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks! I'm green on every single $NBIS $CIFR $IRRN call by like 5-20% today but I wouldn't recommend short term calls to anyone since risk is really high. Shares are the way to go! I only do calls when I feel like it's the daily bottom and I had a bit of luck on my side
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博主分享在CIFR和NBIS抄底，并小额投机IREN看涨期权。
交易还没结束！虽然价格可能还会下跌，但我喜欢在这些价位。我也发实时动态，这样大家就知道我确实在 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 上抄底。另外加了 1.5 万美元的极短期 $IREN 看涨期权，不建议大家这么做。我只是手头有点零钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Trading day isn't over yet! Also prices could still go down but I like them at these levels. I post live too so people know so people know I'm actually timing the bottoms with $CIFR and $NBIS. Also added $15k in very short term $IREN calls, would not recommend this one. I just have spare change
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专注 $CIFR 看涨期权，逢低加仓 $NBIS 因看好基本面。
@taleino93 了解得不够多，我会专注于 $CIFR，我认为它很可能会回到 16 美元。目前我持有了约 5 万美元的看涨期权。对 $NBIS 的回调感到满意。如果它再次下跌，我会继续加仓看涨期权，因为我对基本面很有信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@taleino93 Don't know enough, I'd just concentrate in $CIFR likely to head back to $16 imo. Ended up with $50k-ish in calls so far. Happy with $NBIS dip. I'll keep adding calls if they drop again since I'm convinced about fundamentals https://t.co/ahm6Bw4T1a
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超成长股遭抛售，矿企因降息预期下调而过度反应。
@claudiohrios 许多超高速增长股如 $ALAB、$CRDO，以及像 $IREN（忽略摩根大通的观点）、$NBIS、$CIFR 这样的矿企股票正面临大量抛售。前两者的抛售更有道理，但三次降息概率降低 8% 真的不值得矿企出现如此剧烈的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
@claudiohrios There's quite a lot of selling on a lot of hyper growth stocks like $ALAB, $CRDO, miners like $IREN (ignore J.P. Morgan), $NBIS, $CIFR. The first two make more sense, but decreasing triple rate cut odds by 8% really doesn't deserve this selloff for miners.
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博主看好矿企风险收益比，逢低加仓CIFR期权、NBIS期权及IREN股票。
呃，我通常不做期权看涨合约，但我觉得矿企的风险收益比不错。在 $CIFR 下跌 5% 至 $11 时，我加仓了价值 $30k 的 1 月 $11 行权价看涨期权。在 $NBIS 下跌 4.6% 至 $103 时，我加仓了价值 $100k 的看涨期权，这只是其中一个行权价。在 $IREN 下跌 13% 时，我以 $40.13 的价格加仓了股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
Eh I normally don't do calls but risk/reward looks good to me on miners Added $CIFR $30k worth of Jan calls $11 strike on the 5% drop to $11. Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103. Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop. https://t.co/OP9EYjg34h
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宏观及BTC波动致NBIS/CIFR大跌，看好CIFR逢低买入机会。
是的，这是宏观因素（3倍降息预期已被消化）的混合影响，$NBIS 下跌了5%，还有其他因素。此外，$CIFR 资产负债表上持有约1.54亿美元的比特币，尽管如果比特币大幅下跌，这有点反应过度。当然也可能是“利好出尽”，但消息面基本面良好，且稀释条款也不错。所以在如此大幅下跌时买入是个好机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah it's a mix of macro (3x rate cut priced down) $NBIS dropped 5% and others. On top of that $CIFR has like $154M BTC on their balance sheet, though it's a bit of an overreaction if BTC went down a ton. Also sell the news I guess, but news turned out to be fundamentally good + dilution terms were good too. So good opportunity to buy at such a large drop.
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分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但更看好NBIS并计划加仓。
@__visionxry__ 一直在等待稀释消息，结果证明是利好，而非像 $CRWV 那样引发巨大的市场兴趣。 正如承诺给一位粉丝的那样，我进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是很好的操作。鉴于其资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（占比 -6.32%）以及宏观因素，这很可能是过度反应。 30 亿美元的合同期为 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的合同是 5 年 170 亿美元。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿美元以上稀释消息，0% 的兴趣率（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%）确实是利好。以 16.06 美元的价格发行，比当前市场利率高出 38% 以上。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上的债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后股价应该会上升。在接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比依然不错。 目前我仍然更看好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 30 万美元的 NBIS，我可能会少量买入 CIFR，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ Was waiting for dilution news and turned out to be positive rather than large interest that $CRWV did https://t.co/9B5OXuk0J2
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分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但认为NBIS更具投资价值。
应粉丝要求，进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是个好机会。考虑到宏观因素，加上资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（-6.32%），这很可能是过度反应。 $30 亿的交易为期 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的 $170 亿交易仅为 5 年。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿+ 稀释消息，且利率为 0%（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%），这其实是利好。当前价格 $16.06 高于市场利率 38%+。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后应该会上涨。接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比仅针对股票而言是很好的。 目前我仍更偏好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 $30 万 NBIS，CIFR 可能会买一点点，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro. $3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now (1h ago), 0% interest (unlike $CRWV 9%) is really positive. It's at 38%+ above current market rate at $16.06. This is how you do dilution. Very low debt on balance sheet too, there's probably going to be more dilution too but should rise afterward. There's likely going to be short term pressure approaching that number but risk-return shares only is good. As of now I'd prefer NBIS > CIFR though and would probably just buy another $300k worth of NBIS at these levels, I'll probably buy a tiny bit but still a solid company.
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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批评付费喊单骗局，强调真交易者靠市场获利而非粉丝。
我在 X 上看到这个真的快疯了。真正的交易者永远是从市场本身获利，而不是从他们的粉丝身上获利。你能得到的最好建议就是 X 上免费的独立研究(DD)，或者是那些随机发帖人分享关于 $NBIS / $IREN 的内容。而不是那些 🤡 搞“第69波”XYZ $BMNR 图表分析喊单 $20 的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm actually losing my mind seeing this on X. Real traders will always make money off the markets. Not off their followers. The best advice you will ever get is free DD on X, or posts coming from randoms dropping $NBIS / $IREN. Not 🤡 Wave 69 XYZ $BMNR charting for $20. https://t.co/fk59TOa3yN
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博主展示1000万高风险迷因组合，探讨极致收益与归零风险。
很多粉丝来自WSB（华尔街梗），没有风险过滤机制。如果我要用1000万美元为Reddit构建一个“迷因组合”以尝试最大化利润： 期权 $NBIS 3月20日 $130看涨期权 500万美元 AMZN 3月20日 $225看涨期权 200万美元 RUT 12月19日 $2400看涨期权 50万美元 2倍杠杆 $IREN 100万美元 $CIFR 100万美元 HIMS 50万美元 显然不推荐这样做，但如果我今天真的想尝试赚取1000%的收益，我会按当前价格这样操作。 如果你有1000万，好奇你会做什么风险博弈来换取豪宅还是温迪的垃圾桶。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of followers were from WSB with no risk-filter. If I had to build a meme-port for Reddit with $10m to try and maximize profit: Options $5M $NBIS Mar 20, $130 Call $2M AMZN Mar 20 $225 Call $500k RUT Dec 19 $2400 Call 2x Leverage $1M $IREN $1M $CIFR $500k HIMS Obviously not recommending this, but if I legitimately wanted to try and make 1000% I'd do this as of today's prices. If you had 10M, curious what risk-play you would do for a mansion vs. Wendys Dumpster.
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博主调侃为抄底CIFR、AMZN和NBIS不惜代价。
@pepemoonboy 为了逢低买入 $CIFR、$AMZN 和 $NBIS，捐出一两个肾都是值得的。我是基于亲身经历说的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Donating a kidney or two is worth it to buy the dip on $CIFR, $AMZN, and $NBIS. Speaking from experience here.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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博主分享核心持仓与主动交易策略，反思若全仓操作收益或超6000%。
除非隐含波动率(IV)低于33%，否则我不做期权交易，比如 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，每笔都获利 $100K+。 通常我会持有一批高确信度的核心股票，如 $HOOD、$RKLB、$IBIT、$NBIS，并持有固定时间。 还有一篮子随机标的，如 $GRAB、$AMZN 等。 然后我会预留大量资金用于主动交易，这些我通常在 X 上发布。 有太多暴涨机会值得思考，比如减半前的 MSTR、Hood、SMCI、HIMS 等。我几乎抓住了每一次突破，但出于风险管理，只投入了组合中较小比例的资金。 如果每次我都全仓押注，哈哈，我的收益可能已经涨了 6000%+。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't do options unless it's <33% IV things, such as $GOOGL or $TSM, both $100K+ profit each on. Usually I hold a core portfolio of high conviction stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $IBIT, $NBIS for a set amount of time. A basket of random stuff like $GRAB, $AMZN, etc. Then I set aside a good amount for active trading, which I usually post on X. Just too many run-ups to think about, like MSTR pre-halving, Hood, SMCI, HIMS, etc. I kind of caught every breakout but only put a smaller percentage of my portfolio into that for risk management. I'd probably be up 6000%+ if I full ported every time lol.
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博主展示630%年化收益，强调公开分享分析以助人。
人们常问，当我全对时会发生什么： 1年回报率：630.44% 📈 我只是真心想要提供帮助！ 在任何上涨行情之前，我都会公开分享我对 $NBIS 到 $HOOD 再到 $UPWK 的分析与持仓。 欢迎查看我在 X 或 Reddit 上的历史记录。https://t.co/2JGib55O0r
原推 ↗英文原文
People often ask what happens when I get everything right: 1 Year Return: 630.44% 📈 Just genuinely want to help! I share my analysis and positions openly from $NBIS to $HOOD to $UPWK before any rally. Feel free to look through my history on X or Reddit. https://t.co/2JGib55O0r
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承认 $IREN 判断正确，但表示目前坚定看好 $NBIS。
@SCurveCapital 是的，你对 $IREN 的判断是对的，恭喜。当我们在 $12 美元持有 $UPWK 时，我买入了 1 股 $IREN，它的涨幅非常巨大。 不过我现在是坚定的 $NBIS 列车乘客（看好 $NBIS）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SCurveCapital Yeah you were right about $IREN, congrats. I bought 1 share when we were holding $UPWK back at $12 and it was up an enormous amount. I'm on the $NBIS train though.
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类比Coinbase与Robinhood，看好NBIS超越CRWV，IREN暂无巨头订单
@NeuralCadence $COIN 就像 $CRWV 的等价物，为该板块的公司设定了市值标杆。 $NBIS 就像 $HOOD，拥有更健康的资产负债表、更多元化的客户群等。 我认为 $NBIS 将在一两年内超越 $CRWV，就像 $HOOD 超越 $COIN 那样。 $IREN 目前还没有与“七大科技巨头(Mag7)”的合作协议。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector. $NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc. I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN. $IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet
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看好NBIS一年期表现，RKLB适合五年长持，除非短期暴涨。
@__visionxry__ $NBIS 是我在1年周期内最高确信度的股票。 我更愿意在5年周期内持有 $RKLB。 除非它像 $CRWV 那样随机在短期内暴涨600%，否则持有一年以获取长期资本利得是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe. I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe. Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time
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看好$NBIS基本面，认为其被低估，目标价200美元。
$NBIS 是十年一遇的标的，能创造代际财富。前瞻营收与基本面极佳，260亿美元市值被严重错杀。低于130美元是极佳的买入机会。5个月内目标价200美元。https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is a once-a-decade stock that can make generational wealth. Incredible forward revenue and fundamentals, mispriced at 26B market cap. Screaming buy under $130. $200 PT, 5 months. https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO
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推测NBIS股价将涨至可转换票据转换价附近。
@babyfolio 我猜测直到可转换票据(Convertible Note)的转换价格触及约 $138.75 左右。$NBIS 今天就值那个估值（虽然通常股价需要一段时间才能涨上去）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio I'm guessing until convertible note hits like $138.75-ish. $NBIS is worth that valuation today (thought it normally takes some time to run up).
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祝贺早期买入NBIS，本人微软合作后建仓，看好其千亿美元市值潜力。
@mvcinvesting 恭喜你在早期就买入了 $NBIS，发现正确的投机性标的从来都不容易。我介入得稍晚一些，在 $MSFT 的交易公布后建立了仓位。我认为该公司有潜力成为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mvcinvesting Congrats on getting into $NBIS early, it’s never easy to spot the right speculative plays. I joined a bit later and built a position after the $MSFT deal. I see the potential for it to be a $100B company.
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对比HIMS逼空潜力与NBIS基本面涨幅，供投资者选择。
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS 的空头持仓率(short interest)为42%，随时可能引发150%的逼空(short squeeze)行情。 $NBIS 仅凭基本面就很可能再涨100%。 在逼空情景下，HIMS 的上涨潜力最大；而 NBIS 则可能仅凭惊人的增长就实现反弹。 请自行选择风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS has 42% short interest and can short squeeze 150% any moment. $NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals. HIMS has highest upside potential under a short squeeze scenario, NBIS likely rallies just based on staggering growth. Pick your poison.
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质疑对方为何向随机用户咨询微软与英伟达的巨额合同事宜。
@IlanG05512373 你是在问一个随机的 X 用户关于 $MSFT 的事情吗？该用户做了尽职调查并给 $NBIS 签下了 170 亿美元的合同？
原推 ↗英文原文
@IlanG05512373 You're asking a random X user over $MSFT that did their due diligence and handed $NBIS a 17B contract?
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推荐全仓NBIS，因其风险低、估值优且增长潜力大。
@soulbiri1 说实话，$NBIS 是少数几只我会放心建议朋友全仓买入的股票之一。相比 $IREN 投机性更低，估值优于 $CRWV，未来增长潜力高于 $ALAB。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Honestly $NBIS this is one of the only stocks I'd be fine telling a friend to full port. Less speculative than $IREN, better valuation than $CRWV, future growth higher than $ALAB.
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博主因NBIS无回调而错失加仓至百万美元的机会。
@L1m05_ 确实哈哈，$NBIS 一直没有回调买入的机会，它只是直线上涨。我本想再追加 30 万美元使其达到 100 万美元，但没有等到好的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@L1m05_ True lol, there's been no dip to buy with $NBIS, it just goes straight up. I wanted to add another $300k worth to make $1m but didn't get a good opportunity.
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博主表示NBIS目前表现良好。
@pepemoonboy 目前为止 $NBIS 的表现还不错 https://t.co/RsqZ8n0uh4
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy So far so good with $NBIS https://t.co/RsqZ8n0uh4
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卖出TSM看涨期权获利，减仓小盘股并轮动至NBIS。
@foogleman1234 我今天卖出了所有 $TSM 看涨期权，行权价 $175，获利超过 100%。我减仓了涨幅在 20-40%+ 的小盘股。将资金轮动配置到 1 个月期限的 $NBIS 虚值看涨期权和正股中。
原推 ↗英文原文
@foogleman1234 I sold all my $TSM calls today $175 for 100%+ profit. I trimmed small caps that were up 20-40%+ Rotating into it into 1 month $NBIS out of money calls and shares
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博主重申 $NBIS 为高确信度标的，认为其基本面强劲且极具买入价值。
我很少重复发帖推荐某只股票……但 $NBIS 很特别。即便今天已上涨 5.75%，在市值低于 300 亿美元的情况下，每次回调都是极具吸引力的买入机会。这是一家十年一遇的公司，其基本面和未来营收远超当前市值。轻松的高确信度持仓目标价 $175+。
原推 ↗英文原文
I rarely repeat-post a stock… but $NBIS is special. Even up 5.75% today, at <$30B market cap, it’s a screaming buy on every dip. This is a once-in-a-decade company with fundamentals and forward revenue far outpacing marketcap. Easy high conviction hold to $175+ https://t.co/MzjEuxSAkD
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ALAB大涨验证逻辑，NBIS获巨头支持，作者建仓100万押注其市值翻倍。
$ALAB 从我两个月前推荐时的 $96 涨至 $244，涨幅 154%（尽管现在略显高估）。 $NBIS 正在重演类似的逻辑，且获得了 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 的支持。 $NBIS 从 $240 亿市值增长至 $600 亿+ 的路径清晰，这也是我建立 $100 万头寸的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now) Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA. NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.
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NBIS和CRWV是英伟达护城河关键，当前市值低估其远期收入。
这与 $NVDA 及其 GPU/ASIC（谷歌云 TPU、AWS Trainium）的 4T+ 论点相同，即超大规模云服务商能否取代英伟达。同样的逻辑也适用于 $NBIS。如果微软能如此快速地自建，他们不会签署 170 亿美元、为期 5 年的合同。如果你阅读了我的深度研究(DD)，NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保持护城河的战略解决方案。CRWV 和 NBIS 有助于防止超大规模云服务商掌握全部议价权，并阻止 Azure 等未来整合算力并压缩利润率。NBIS 有助于维持英伟达的护城河，这也是数百亿美元的合同收入开始从“七巨头”流向新云提供商的原因。250 亿美元的市场资本化与远期收入不匹配。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's the same 4T+ thesis with $NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs (Google Cloud TPUs, AWS Trainium) when hyperscalers could replace Nvidia. Same applies to $NBIS. MSFT wouldn't sign a 17B 5 year contract if they could build it out themselves this fast. If you read my DD, NBIS, $CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat. CRWV, NBIS helps keep hyperscalers from having all the leverage + prevent Azure, others from consolidating compute and compressing margins down the road. NBIS helps maintain NVDA's moat and why hundreds of billions contracted revenue is already starting to flow from mag7 to the new neocloud providers. 25B marketcap does not align to forward revenue.
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NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
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分析CRWV、NBIS及RKLB的股价潜力与时间框架
$CRWV 在3个月内从$41涨至$183，但部分原因是流通盘(less float)较小。 如果$NBIS 第四季度财报(Q4 earnings)大超预期，加上最乐观情境下的三次降息，我们可能看到它从$99涨至$225，否则我认为需要1年时间。 $RKLB 是我在5年维度上最看好的，但他们还需要额外两年时间用于中子火箭(Neutron)项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float. We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe. $RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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买入50万美元$NBIS，视为一年期最高信心持仓，目标价225美元。
买入价值50万美元的$NBIS。这是我目前持仓中，针对1年投资周期信心最高（Highest Conviction）的股票。目标价（PT）$225 https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
原推 ↗英文原文
Bought $500K worth of $NBIS. My highest conviction stock out of anything for a 1 year time period. $225 PT https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH
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博主分享TSM看涨期权涨68%及NBIS涨10%的优异收益。
@DavidJang0620 $TSM 看涨期权*。 自从我发帖以来，我的看涨期权目前上涨了 68%。$NBIS 可能上涨了 10%，这仍然是一个极好的回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DavidJang0620 $TSM calls*. My calls are up 68% right now since I posted. $NBIS is probably up 10%, which is still an extremely good return.
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建议全仓NBIS博高回报，或全仓TSM求稳健。
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS 是我在当前市场利率下，为了获得最高投资回报率(ROI)而会全仓持有的唯一公司。 如果你风险偏好较低，$TSM 可能是最安全的全仓选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DavidJang0620 $NBIS is the only company I'd full port for highest ROI at current market rates $TSM is probably the safest full port if you're lower risk
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建议未来几个月从NBIS切换至RKLB
@YodaStockInvest 未来几个月 $NBIS -> $RKLB
原推 ↗英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS for next few months -> $RKLB
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看好稀土及AI矿企，对比REMX、MP、UURAF等标的。
鉴于中国的地缘政治风险，我确实看好稀土。特朗普也部署了50亿美元以加速采矿。我在考虑$REMX或$MP的看涨期权，但$UURAF看起来也很有前景，我会进一步研究。我看到的最大缺点是它以加元(CAD)计价。我不太喜欢$NAKA或折价交易(under NAV)的控股公司。Grayscale曾长期折价交易。是的，我之前就知道$BITF。我只是更喜欢$NBIS，但那里有很多其他正在转向AI的矿企。谢谢推荐。
原推 ↗英文原文
I do like Rare Earth given geopolitical risk with China. Trump is also deploying $5B to accelerating mining. I was thinking $REMX or $MP calls, but $UURAF looks promising too, I'll look into it more. Main downside I see is that it's CAD. Not much of a fan of $NAKA or holding companies under NAV. Grayscale was under NAV for the longest time. Yeah I knew about $BITF before. I just liked $NBIS more but there's tons of other miners pivoting to AI out there. THanks for the recs
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预测NBIS短期爆发后，长期走势或类似SMCI面临利润率与库存压力。
对于像 $NBIS 这样的股票，我会假设在一两年内，由于营收增长+前瞻潜力，会有一个巨大的催化剂推动其股价达到200美元以上。 然后它可能会像2-3年后的 $SMCI 一样，当局势稳定下来时，呈现高营收、低利润率，但随着大型科技公司部署由 $TSM 和 $AVGO 提供的自研芯片，面临库存风险和利润增长放缓。
原推 ↗英文原文
Stuff like $NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential. Then it might end up like $SMCI in 2-3 years when things settle down with high revenue, lower margins, but inventory risk and profit growth once all the big tech deploys their own chips with $TSM + $AVGO.
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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看好NBIS回调买入，认为HIMS短期潜力最大。
我高确信度的股票不多，但 $NBIS 在 90 美元时是其中之一。任何回调都是强力买入机会。 一家拥有如此多远期营收的公司市值仅为 210 亿美元，这简直不可思议。$IREN 也很棒，但目前更具投机性且需要稀释。 不过 $HIMS 在未来 3 个月内的潜力最大，空头比率(SI)高达 42%。https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
原推 ↗英文原文
I don’t have many high conviction stocks but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip 21B MC for a company with so much forward rev is insane. $IREN is great as well but more speculative atm + needs dilution $HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI. https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
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揭露X博主用伪技术分析骗课，指出其忽略基本面与事后归谬。
X 上许多热门用户是试图出售订阅的骗子，其中就包括这位。 原因如下： 技术分析(TA) 对某些公司几乎毫无意义。$BMNR 是一家持有 $ETH 的公司。忽略 $ETH 而试图对 $BMNR 进行图表分析只会让人发笑。 从根本上说，$BMNR 追踪 $ETH，其价格约为净资产值(NAV) 的 1.3 倍。若 $BMNR 要上涨 100%，$ETH 需要上涨 82%。 Polymarket 预测 $ETH 在年底前（而非一个月内）达到 8000 美元的概率仅为 16%。 除非出现低浮盘盘前买入，或者在 $ETH 反弹后 NAV 脱钩，否则很难实现。 至于他们关于 $NBIS 的说法，其股价从 40 美元涨至 110 美元以上，是因为获得了 $MSFT 意外宣布的 170 亿美元合同，而不是因为有人在图表上画线声称技术分析(TA) 预测到了突破。 在分析突破时，这正是你不应该做的。 他们在每只股票上发布糟糕的预测，然后吹嘘事后诸葛亮说猜对了一两只，以此推销课程。
原推 ↗英文原文
Many popular users on X are scammers who try and sell subscriptions and this is one of them. Here’s why: TA barely means anything for some companies. $BMNR is an $ETH holding company. Ignoring $ETH and trying to chart $BMNR makes anyone laugh. Fundamentally $BMNR tracks $ETH and it’s roughly 1.3x NAV. For $BMNR to go up 100%, ETH would need to go up 82%. Polymarket predicts a 16% chance $ETH hits $8K by end of year, not 1 month. Either there would need to be a low float buy premarket or NAV depegging after an $ETH rally. As for their $NBIS claim, it went from $40 to $110+ from an unexpected 17 billion dollar $MSFT contract, not because anyone drew lines on a chart saying the TA predicted a breakout. When you analyze breakouts, this is exactly what NOT to do. They post crappy predictions on every stock then brag hindsight that they got one or two right to sell courses.
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对比 Oracle 与微软在 AI 领域的交易确定性，质疑 OpenAI 支付能力。
@taleino93 @unusual_whales 我真的不知道 $ORCL 该往哪个方向走。Oracle 的交易对象是 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 甚至没有 3000 亿（美元）的体量。$MSFT 与 $NBIS 的交易已确认金额为 170 亿美元，鉴于微软的背景，NBIS 被低估了。时间会证明 OpenAI 能否支付得起。
原推 ↗英文原文
@taleino93 @unusual_whales I genuinely don’t know which direction to go with $ORCL. Oracle’s deal was with OpenAi, which doesn’t even have 300B. $MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it’s Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued. Time will tell if OpenAI can pay up.
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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博主列出下月基于潜力最看好的五只股票及买入逻辑。
如果我要根据潜力在下个月买入5样东西： 1. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例(SI)，新产品/降息催化剂+120万欧盟客户。逼空不可避免，只是时间问题。 2. $LTC - 抢在机构之前，为10月2日的ETF发行做准备。 3. $NBIS - 仅基于微软(MSFT)的交易，股价轻松达到100美元以上。抱歉了$IREN持有者。 4. $CRDO - 仅仅是为了追赶$ALAB的市值(MC)。 5. $HOOD - 鉴于标普(S&P)按市值加权且HOOD市值超1000亿美元，纳入标普的流入资金将大幅增加其市值。
原推 ↗英文原文
If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential: 1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time. 2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd. 3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders. 4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC. 5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.
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博主复盘分享头寸单日涨跌，承认$ETOR看错，并说明后续发帖计划。
第二天——我分享的头寸单日回报： $TSSI：$14.40 → $15.76 (+9.44%) $HIMS：$47.85 → $51.17 (+6.94%) $NBIS：$91.00 → $96.20 (+5.71%) $TSM（杠杆）：$253.60 → $261.79 (+3.23%) $ETOR：$45.00 → $43.50 (–3.33%) —— 这个看错了，但时间会证明一切。 因为已完成每小时的更新，中午就结束发帖了。 作为一次性分享，觉得全天随机聊聊想法挺有趣。我通常不提及何时止盈，因为告诉别人卖出感觉很奇怪。 如果有好的机会，我偶尔还是会回来发帖聊股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
Day 2 — single-day returns on the positions I’ve shared: $TSSI: $14.40 → $15.76 (+9.44%) $HIMS: $47.85 → $51.17 (+6.94%) $NBIS: $91.00 → $96.20 (+5.71%) $TSM (leverage): $253.60 → $261.79 (+3.23%) $ETOR: $45.00 → $43.50 (–3.33%) — got this one wrong, but time will tell. Wrapping up mid-day since I’m done with the hourly posts. As a one-off, thought it’d be fun to share some random thoughts throughout the day. I usually don’t mention when I take profit since it feels weird to tell people to sell. I’ll still drop in from time to time to post about stocks if there's a good opportunity.
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建议持有 $TSSI 以捕捉半导体牛市红利，预期单日涨幅超 10%。
如果你正考虑在 $TSSI 上获利了结，请记住该股在稀释前曾达 $30，且目前半导体牛市势头强劲，涉及 $SMCI、$TSM、$AVGO、$IREN、$NBIS、$WYFI、$NVDA 和 $ORCL。若涨势持续，单日涨幅可能超过 10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there’s a huge semi bull run with $SMCI, $TSM, $AVGO, $IREN, $NBIS, $WYFI, $NVDA and $ORCL. Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues. https://t.co/ks67hMAi01
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NBIS稀释利空已消化，股价获买盘支撑。
我说过，$NBIS 的稀释性回调已被完全买盘消化，因为市场早已将其定价。免费分享 6% 的回报 https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
原推 ↗英文原文
Told you, $NBIS dilution dip completely bought out since it was already priced in. Free 6% https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
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认为NBIS稀释已定价，建议趁恐慌下跌加仓。
（这意味着利用这段时间加仓）。稀释效应已被市场定价，若股价下跌7%以上则属过度反应。我正试图抄底，从散户恐慌抛售中吸纳更多 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
(what this means is use this time to add to your positions). Dilution was already priced in and if the stock drops 7%+ it's an overreaction. I'm just trying to time the bottom to add another large chunk of $NBIS from retail panic sellers.
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NBIS稀释已定价，资金用于微软合同是利好，类比ASTS融资后股价大涨。
如果你担心 $NBIS，请记住**稀释效应已被市场定价**。$MSFT 的合同价值超过 170 亿美元，未来 7 年多将增加 300%+ 的营收。$NBIS 当天仅上涨 45%，而非 250%+。如果他们将资金用于 $MSFT 合同而非像 $GME 或 $AMC 那样持有，这是积极的。$ASTS 也启动了用于产品部署的融资，股价从 22 美元 -> 18 美元 -> 50 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're scared about $NBIS remember **DILUTION WAS ALREADY PRICED IN** The $MSFT contract was 17B+, increasing forward rev by 300%+ for over 7 years. $NBIS gained 45% on the day not 250%+. It's positive if they're using it for the MSFT contract instead of just holding it like $GME or $AMC. $ASTS also launched a capital raise for product deployment and their stock went from $22 -> $18 -> $50.
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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博主晒出实时交易 $NBIS 获利7%，并嘲讽其他博主建议。
当这些蠢货像 @TheLongInvest 一样发布糟糕的建议且不知自己在做什么时，我与你进行实时交易(live trading)，你能立即看到我的成功。我不需要 Patreon 付费订阅，因为我确实能从市场中赚钱。几小时内“追涨” $NBIS 获利 +7%。
原推 ↗英文原文
While these dipshits like @TheLongInvest are posting terrible advice and don't know what they're doing. I trade live with you and you see my success immediately after. I don't need a Patreon since I actually make money off the market. +7% "chasing" $NBIS in a few hours. https://t.co/aerWyWf62r
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买入TSSI，看好小盘半导体随AI板块反弹。
鉴于半导体反弹已扩展至如 $SMCI 等服务器机架领域，我买入了 $40K 的 $TSSI。该股从 $31 跌至 $13.6，考虑到 $TSM、$CREDO、$NBIS、$AVGO、$MRVL、$ALAB 等其他半导体/AI 股票均已反弹，小盘股反弹的机会很大。https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
原推 ↗英文原文
Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI. Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
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博主买入10万美元NBIS，认为其涨幅未充分反映高增长。
是的，我买了价值10万美元的$NBIS，因为在年化经常性收入(ARR)增长300%+之后，35%的涨幅完全没有被定价。https://t.co/TX2gBVlrMy
原推 ↗英文原文
And yes I bought $100k worth of $NBIS since a 35% increase after 300%+ ARR is completely not priced in. https://t.co/TX2gBVlrMy
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认为$NBIS虽处高位但仍有巨大买入机会，预期后续上涨。
在我看来，$NBIS 是一个巨大的买入机会，即使它正处于历史高位。 他们刚刚通过一笔170亿美元的交易使收入翻了三倍，而本周股价仅上涨了25.67%。 这很可能是空头为了吓退看涨期权持有者/短期持有者而进行的打压，随后股价可能会迎来另一波上涨。 https://t.co/IBXJa46X1Q
原推 ↗英文原文
Huge buying opportunity for $NBIS imo, even despite all time highs. They just tripled their revenue with a 17 Billion Dollar deal and it’s only up 25.67% this week. Probably short to scare of calls/short term holders then another rally down the road. https://t.co/IBXJa46X1Q
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不看好SG但预期其反弹，更看好TSM等标的。
@moonman6577 我对 $SG 不太看好。如果让我挑选我看好（bullish）的股票，我会选 $TSM、$HOOD、$RKLB、$CREDO、$NBIS 等。但我认为 $SG 会反弹，因为它因短期期权（option）资金流而超卖（oversold），而且我单纯就是喜欢他们的沙拉。
原推 ↗英文原文
@moonman6577 I'm not too bullish on $SG. If I had to pick stocks I'm bullish on it would be $TSM, $HOOD, $RKLB, $CREDO, $NBIS and others. But I see $SG rebounding since it's oversold from short-term option flows and I simply just like their salad.
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关注IREN，类比NBIS，看好矿企转型AI的投资机会。
在 $IREN 涨至 $30+ 后，我仍在关注它。这让我想起 $CRWV 大幅上涨后的 $NBIS。 有什么能阻止 $MARA、$RIOT、$CIFR、$CLSK、$HUT 等从比特币(BTC)转向人工智能(AI)吗？ 这可能是一个绝佳的投资机会。https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
原推 ↗英文原文
Still looking @ $IREN after it's rise to $30+. Reminds me of $NBIS following $CRWV's massive rise. There's nothing stopping $MARA, $RIOT, $CIFR, $CLSK, $HUT and others from pivoting from BTC into AI right? Might be a great investment opportunity. https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
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买入$CRDO，视其为$ALAB对标股，看好其超高速增长潜力。
刚买入价值10万美元的$CRDO，因为它是一家与$ALAB类似的公司，且正以惊人的速度增长。两者处于相似的市场细分领域，且$CRDO上周下跌了8%。通常这类股票会同步上涨（例如$CRWV和$NBIS）。无论如何我都会持有，因为它是一家稳健的超高速增长公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just bought $100K worth of $CRDO as it's a similar company to $ALAB and also growing at insane rates. Similar market segments and it dropped 8% last week. Usually things rise together (eg. $CRWV + $NBIS). I'd hold anyway as it's a solid hyper growth company. https://t.co/v4kI2fb1Ef