$SIMO
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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每天都在大涨有点疲劳
还有别人也开始对从 $INTC 到 $SIMO 这些名字每天都在涨这么多感到有点疲劳吗？ 你看，英特尔这家 3000 多亿美元的公司一天涨 11%，而 Silicon Motion 涨了 41%…… 很大一部分其实只是押对了行业 / 玩家…… https://t.co/ZEPkUVVt51
英文原文
Anyone else getting a little tired of everything from $INTC to $SIMO just going up so much every day? You have Intel, a $300B+ company gaining 11% a day, while Silicon Motion gaining 41%… Large part of it is just going long on the right sector/players... https://t.co/ZEPkUVVt51
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
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分享412%收益来源，推荐存储、光子等瓶颈板块，强调顺势轮动。
年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分归功于选对了板块，从 Jane Street 算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈环节的多头持仓方面，目前我最看好： 1. 存储 - 三星、SK 海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI，（也许还有山形电机，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC 和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些标的。 但其中大多数甚至全部在短期内上涨了 50-100%+，这放大了交易的整体回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是：跟随资金流向和当前的瓶颈环节进行轮动。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转操作。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点经验！
英文原文
Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
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博主因联想建仓SIMO并认同对方观点
@RJCcapital 我建仓了 $SIMO，因为它让我想起了相扑选手。所以我也持有同样的感受。
英文原文
@RJCcapital I took positions in $SIMO since it reminds me of Sumo Wrestlers. So same feelings here too
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分享持仓要点如$SIMO，不指望跟随但求启发。
股票每天都在创历史新高(ATH)。我认为现在不算早，但也不认为是顶部。话虽如此，只是想分享一些我持仓的要点(TLDR)，比如 $SIMO，以防其他人觉得有趣或能学到什么。我不指望大家跟随操作，但如果有什么亮点，那太好了！
英文原文
Stocks make ATHs every day. I don't think it's early but I don't think it's the top either. That being said, just wanted to share some TLDRs of positions I've taken like $SIMO in case others find it interesting or learn something. I don't expect people to follow along, but if something stands out, that's great!
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SIMO Q1异常低但全年看涨，NVDA采用其DPU提供底部支撑。
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO 在财报电话会议上表示，第一季度是2026年的最低点，这属于异常现象，但看来全年剩余时间将实现超预期并回升。 此外，随着 $NVDA 显然将采用其 Bluefield DPU（数据处理器单元），其总可寻址市场(TAM)的扩张也为其提供了良好的底部支撑。
英文原文
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO stated on earnings call that Q1 is lowest of 2026, which is an anomaly, but it looks like beat and rise for rest of the year. They also have a nice floor from TAM expansion with $NVDA apparently going to their bluefield DPUs?
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买入$SIMO，看好其NAND控制器双寡头地位及AI存储市场扩张。
$SIMO 作为 NAND 敞口是另一个我今天建仓的交易思路。 SIMO 在 merchant controllers（独立控制器）领域与 Phison 形成事实上的双寡头垄断，主要客户包括： - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC 等。 - 营收：2025年Q4达到2.785亿美元（同比+46%，环比+15%）。 - 毛利率：~49.2% - 净利润：~4770万美元（同比+107%）。 - 净现金：2.771亿美元，无债务。 但管理层宣布2026年将是公司历史上营收最高的一年。 他们指引2026年Q1营收在2.92亿-3.06亿美元之间，该季度同比增长率为+76%-84%。 他们也开始向一家“领先的AI GPU制造商”（可能是 $NVDA）出货企业级启动盘，这扩大了其 TAM（总可服务市场）。 随着内存制造商转向 HBM，他们基本上将部分 SSD 控制器领域（如移动/消费级）外包，因此现在相当一部分独家来自 Silicon Motion。 因此，你拥有一家盈利、无债、毛利率约50%的公司，从 NAND 体积需求中获利，同时将其 TAM 扩展到高毛利的 Nvidia 和 AI 企业存储管道。 虽然它并不直接从所有 NAND 涨价中获利（但可以自行提价），但这感觉像是内存领域一个相当不对称的顺风/后门玩法。 在45.6亿美元市值和低于20倍远期市盈率（假设12亿美元营收/6.5美元每股收益）下，入场稍晚。但鉴于 TAM 扩展和内存超级周期，上行空间似乎很有吸引力。
英文原文
$SIMO for NAND exposure is another trade idea that I took positions in today. SIMO operates effectively as a duopoly (alongside Phison) for merchant controllers and supplies basically: - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC, and others. - Revenue: Q4 2025 reached $278.5 million (+46% yoy and +15% qoq). - Gross Margins: ~49.2% - Net Income: ~$47.7 million (up 107% YoY). - Net Cash: $277.1 million, no debt. But, management announced 2026 will be the highest revenue year in the company’s history. They guided Q1 2026 revenue to between $292m-$306m, which is +76%-84% YoY growth rate for the quarter. They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion. Memory makers basically outsourcing parts of the SSD controller spaces (eg. mobile/consumer) as they shift to HBM so now quite a bit is sourced exclusively from Silicon Motion. So you have a profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off of NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM into high-margin Nvidia and AI enterprise storage pipelines. While it doesn't exactly profit from all the NAND hikes (but can do price hikes of its own), it feels like a pretty asymmetrical tailwind/backdoor plays for memory. At a $4.56B MC and under 20x forward earnings (assuming, $1.2B rev/$6.5 EPS), it's a little later to the game. But upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle.
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存储需求结构性短缺，推理瓶颈在存储，中国产能无外溢。
群联电子(Phison) CEO关于存储与投资框架的访谈摘要： “收过路费者”（Toll Collectors）： - 美光(Micron) ($MU) - SK海力士(000660.KS) - 三星电子 - 西部数据(Western Digital) ($WDC) - $SNDK T2层级： - $MRVL - $SIMO - 群联电子(Phison Electronics) 随着AI向边缘端迁移，设计连接存储与计算逻辑/软件控制器的公司将捕获巨大价值。 T3层级： - 纯存储(Pure Storage) ($PSTG) - NetApp ($NTAP) - 希捷(Seagate) ($STX) 随着Vera Rubin推理服务器推出，键值缓存(KV Cache)和数据生成的爆发将触发针对数据中心存储密度和高容量企业级固态硬盘(Enterprise SSDs)的硬件升级周期。 有趣的是：$EBAY（翻新电子产品）可能成为受益者。 - 做空/规避低毛利消费硬件。 - 做空/规避未对冲的汽车/IoT制造商。 主要Alpha观点： - “三年预付”现金流：存储晶圆厂要求3年现金预付款以保障供应。 - 推理瓶颈在于存储而非GPU：单批次1000万台$NVDA Vera Rubin平台需每台20+TB SSD，仅此项就将消耗去年全球NAND产能的20%。 - “中国供应过剩”看空论调已死： Pan完全驳斥了关于长江存储(YMTC)和长鑫存储(CXMT)的观点。中国内部AI需求巨大，将瞬间消化100%国内产量。不会有廉价中国存储流入全球市场来拯救西方硬件OEM。 访谈TLDR： 存储需求是结构性的。供应端无结束迹象。$INTC CEO上月已确认此点。
英文原文
TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework: "Toll Collectors": - Micron ( $MU ) - SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Samsung Electronics, - Western Digital ( $WDC ) - $SNDK. T2: - $MRVL - $SIMO - Phison Electronics Companies that design the logic/software controllers connecting memory to compute will capture massive value as AI moves to the edge. T3: - Pure Storage ( $PSTG ) - NetApp ( $NTAP ) - Seagate ( $STX) As Vera Rubin inference servers roll out, the explosion in KV Cache and data generation will trigger a massive hardware upgrade cycle specifically focused on data center storage density and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs. Hilariously: $EBAY (refurbished electronics), might be a beneficiary. - Short / Avoid Low-Margin Consumer Hardware. - Short / Avoid Unhedged Auto/IoT Makers Main alpha points: - The "3-Year Prepayment" Cash Flow. Memory foundries are demanding 3 years of cash prepayments to guarantee supply. - The Inference Bottleneck is Storage, Not GPUs. A single 10-million-unit run of $NVDA Vera Rubin platform requires 20+TB of SSD per unit, which alone would consume 20% of last year's global NAND capacity. - The "Chinese Supply Glut" Bear Thesis is Dead: Pan entirely dismisses this point around YMTC and CXMT. China’s internal AI demand is so massive that it will instantly swallow 100% of its domestic production. No cheap Chinese memory will leak into the global market to rescue western hardware OEMs. TLDR from the interview: Memory demand is structural. No supply end in sight. $INTC CEO confirmed this last month.
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认为当前处于周期早期，$SIMO 虽已大涨但仍是优质长线标的。
@LAMINAR27174405 不，但这是一个很好的长线标的。这正处于周期( Cycle )的非常早期阶段，$SIMO 已经大幅上涨了不少。
英文原文
@LAMINAR27174405 Nope but great long. This one is the very start of the cycle, $SIMO has already rallied quite a bit.