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认为 DRAM 是一个很好的存储 ETF。
如果你想要存储敞口，$DRAM 这个 ETF 真的很不错。 我平时不太会夸 ETF，但这个确实很扎实。 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% 披露：@roundhill 的朋友们确实联系过我讨论发行事宜，但我不是收钱替它说话（免得你以为这条随机帖子是赞助的，不是的）。 如果你拿不到海外股票，这确实是一个很好的存储敞口 ETF。 我也希望更多机构去做这类 ETF。
英文原文
If you want exposure to memory, $DRAM is a genuinely great ETF. I normally don't praise ETFs, but this is solid. 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% Disclosure: Friends over at @roundhill did reach out about the launch, but I'm not getting paid to say this (just in case you think this random post is sponsored, it's not). Just a genuinely great ETF for memory exposure if you don't have access to foreign stocks. And I’d encourage more institutions to make ETFs like this.
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买入$SIMO，看好其NAND控制器双寡头地位及AI存储市场扩张。
$SIMO 作为 NAND 敞口是另一个我今天建仓的交易思路。 SIMO 在 merchant controllers（独立控制器）领域与 Phison 形成事实上的双寡头垄断，主要客户包括： - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC 等。 - 营收：2025年Q4达到2.785亿美元（同比+46%，环比+15%）。 - 毛利率：~49.2% - 净利润：~4770万美元（同比+107%）。 - 净现金：2.771亿美元，无债务。 但管理层宣布2026年将是公司历史上营收最高的一年。 他们指引2026年Q1营收在2.92亿-3.06亿美元之间，该季度同比增长率为+76%-84%。 他们也开始向一家“领先的AI GPU制造商”（可能是 $NVDA）出货企业级启动盘，这扩大了其 TAM（总可服务市场）。 随着内存制造商转向 HBM，他们基本上将部分 SSD 控制器领域（如移动/消费级）外包，因此现在相当一部分独家来自 Silicon Motion。 因此，你拥有一家盈利、无债、毛利率约50%的公司，从 NAND 体积需求中获利，同时将其 TAM 扩展到高毛利的 Nvidia 和 AI 企业存储管道。 虽然它并不直接从所有 NAND 涨价中获利（但可以自行提价），但这感觉像是内存领域一个相当不对称的顺风/后门玩法。 在45.6亿美元市值和低于20倍远期市盈率（假设12亿美元营收/6.5美元每股收益）下，入场稍晚。但鉴于 TAM 扩展和内存超级周期，上行空间似乎很有吸引力。
英文原文
$SIMO for NAND exposure is another trade idea that I took positions in today. SIMO operates effectively as a duopoly (alongside Phison) for merchant controllers and supplies basically: - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC, and others. - Revenue: Q4 2025 reached $278.5 million (+46% yoy and +15% qoq). - Gross Margins: ~49.2% - Net Income: ~$47.7 million (up 107% YoY). - Net Cash: $277.1 million, no debt. But, management announced 2026 will be the highest revenue year in the company’s history. They guided Q1 2026 revenue to between $292m-$306m, which is +76%-84% YoY growth rate for the quarter. They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion. Memory makers basically outsourcing parts of the SSD controller spaces (eg. mobile/consumer) as they shift to HBM so now quite a bit is sourced exclusively from Silicon Motion. So you have a profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off of NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM into high-margin Nvidia and AI enterprise storage pipelines. While it doesn't exactly profit from all the NAND hikes (but can do price hikes of its own), it feels like a pretty asymmetrical tailwind/backdoor plays for memory. At a $4.56B MC and under 20x forward earnings (assuming, $1.2B rev/$6.5 EPS), it's a little later to the game. But upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle.
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存储需求结构性短缺，推理瓶颈在存储，中国产能无外溢。
群联电子(Phison) CEO关于存储与投资框架的访谈摘要： “收过路费者”（Toll Collectors）： - 美光(Micron) ($MU) - SK海力士(000660.KS) - 三星电子 - 西部数据(Western Digital) ($WDC) - $SNDK T2层级： - $MRVL - $SIMO - 群联电子(Phison Electronics) 随着AI向边缘端迁移，设计连接存储与计算逻辑/软件控制器的公司将捕获巨大价值。 T3层级： - 纯存储(Pure Storage) ($PSTG) - NetApp ($NTAP) - 希捷(Seagate) ($STX) 随着Vera Rubin推理服务器推出，键值缓存(KV Cache)和数据生成的爆发将触发针对数据中心存储密度和高容量企业级固态硬盘(Enterprise SSDs)的硬件升级周期。 有趣的是：$EBAY（翻新电子产品）可能成为受益者。 - 做空/规避低毛利消费硬件。 - 做空/规避未对冲的汽车/IoT制造商。 主要Alpha观点： - “三年预付”现金流：存储晶圆厂要求3年现金预付款以保障供应。 - 推理瓶颈在于存储而非GPU：单批次1000万台$NVDA Vera Rubin平台需每台20+TB SSD，仅此项就将消耗去年全球NAND产能的20%。 - “中国供应过剩”看空论调已死： Pan完全驳斥了关于长江存储(YMTC)和长鑫存储(CXMT)的观点。中国内部AI需求巨大，将瞬间消化100%国内产量。不会有廉价中国存储流入全球市场来拯救西方硬件OEM。 访谈TLDR： 存储需求是结构性的。供应端无结束迹象。$INTC CEO上月已确认此点。
英文原文
TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework: "Toll Collectors": - Micron ( $MU ) - SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Samsung Electronics, - Western Digital ( $WDC ) - $SNDK. T2: - $MRVL - $SIMO - Phison Electronics Companies that design the logic/software controllers connecting memory to compute will capture massive value as AI moves to the edge. T3: - Pure Storage ( $PSTG ) - NetApp ( $NTAP ) - Seagate ( $STX) As Vera Rubin inference servers roll out, the explosion in KV Cache and data generation will trigger a massive hardware upgrade cycle specifically focused on data center storage density and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs. Hilariously: $EBAY (refurbished electronics), might be a beneficiary. - Short / Avoid Low-Margin Consumer Hardware. - Short / Avoid Unhedged Auto/IoT Makers Main alpha points: - The "3-Year Prepayment" Cash Flow. Memory foundries are demanding 3 years of cash prepayments to guarantee supply. - The Inference Bottleneck is Storage, Not GPUs. A single 10-million-unit run of $NVDA Vera Rubin platform requires 20+TB of SSD per unit, which alone would consume 20% of last year's global NAND capacity. - The "Chinese Supply Glut" Bear Thesis is Dead: Pan entirely dismisses this point around YMTC and CXMT. China’s internal AI demand is so massive that it will instantly swallow 100% of its domestic production. No cheap Chinese memory will leak into the global market to rescue western hardware OEMs. TLDR from the interview: Memory demand is structural. No supply end in sight. $INTC CEO confirmed this last month.
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指出存储芯片进入新囤货周期，关注WDC等标的。
@elicapitalgroup 很棒的公司。但这看起来实际上是一个新囤货周期的开始，我之前没考虑到 $WDC、$STX 或 $SNDK。
英文原文
@elicapitalgroup Great companies. But it's actually appears to be the start of a new hoarding cycle, wasn't thinking about $WDC, $STX, or $SNDK.