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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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传统存储价格累计暴涨超400%，预计Q3无晶圆厂财报将大幅超预期。
以防你好奇我为什么如此看好传统存储(legacy memory)…… 它们的涨价幅度似乎比 $NBIS 今天报告的 GPU 租赁 +17-21% 或太诱村田(Taiyo-Murata) 类型的 MLCC 涨价要极端得多。 预计下半年(H2)的涨价预测： - SLC NAND：下半年比上半年 +120-170% - 高容量 NOR：下半年比上半年 +90-110% - ~DDR3/DDR4：Q3 +50% - DDR2：Q3 +35-40% - LPDDR：Q3 +20% 或更多 - DDR1、旧款 LPDDR 和 PSRAM：也在上涨 作为一个综合视角…… 其中很多是在上半年已有涨价(例如 SLC NAND 上半年涨 130-150%)的基础上叠加的，因此 2026 年累计涨幅达到 +406%-575%。 这比上游晶圆 COGS 涨价(例如 $PSMC 的 DRAM 晶圆 +45%)对整体合并净利润的影响更大。 所以我预计许多传统存储无晶圆厂(fabless)公司的 Q3 财报会非常亮眼(cook)。
英文原文
Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC) So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook
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富士康拟联合投资以解决CW激光器等光子学瓶颈。
让人想起 $NVDA 与 $LITE + $COHR 的情况： 富士康（Foxconn）正在考虑联合投资，以避免上游材料短缺。 富士康互连技术董事长指出，连续波(CW)激光器和光纤是光子学领域最大的瓶颈。 看到这两个主题在行业评论中被反复提及，非常有趣。 几乎就像 X 上某个动漫角色关于 CW 激光器瓶颈的说法是对的。
英文原文
Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR: Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages. Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics. Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary. Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.
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Sivers获行业认可，产能升级跻身T1梯队，并与中国厂商合作。
顺便提一下，$SIVE 在 Digitimes 上也有报道，这值得赞赏，表明其在瑞典之外获得了行业认可。我认为 Sivers 建设 1 亿+ 连续波分布反馈 (CW DFB) 激光器产能，迫使行业重新审视其模型，并带来了更多的关注。因为它如果顺利实现产能爬坡，将使 Sivers 进入与 $COHR、住友、古河、$AVGO、Landmark 和 $LITE 并列的 T1 激光器产能讨论中。除此之外，2026 年 CIOE 的渠道调研非常有意义，因为业界发现 Sivers 正在与中国可插拔光模块厂商合作，并在当地设立办公室。这让我想起当初我在 OFC 指出 $SIVE 和 $JBL 在 1.6T 长距光模块 (LRO) 上的合作时，没人相信这种联系，直到官方发布新闻稿。总之，很高兴看到这家小公司茁壮成长。
英文原文
$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up
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NVDA半数员工身价超2500万，证明其未因宏观恐慌而抛售。
作为明天美联储决议前的一点打气数据：据报道，$NVDA 50% 的员工身价现已超过 2500 万美元。他们并非通过在每次宏观恐慌或加息前抛售（paperhanding）股票才达到这一数字的。
英文原文
Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g
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CCXI发布Digit 5人形机器人，博主询问看法。
$CCXI 发布了其 Digit 5 下一代人形机器人。大家怎么看？ https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5
英文原文
$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5
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驳斥克拉默观点，基于基本面看好内存与存储股，中期看多 Leopold 持仓。
今天看到吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）支持对冲基金做空 Leopold 关于 $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix 的“胡言乱语”式看涨观点。同时克拉默称 $CRWD 为“必买”。我不确定克拉默是否看到一家被贴上“网络安全”标签的 2410 亿美元市值公司就认为其安全，而忽略了所有基本面。但就 CrowdStrike 而言，这是一家 2028 财年远期市盈率（Forward P/E）约 145 倍、营收同比增长 26% 的公司，克拉默却认为它是“必买”。然后看看 Leopold 做多的 AI 资本支出受益主题。像 $SKHY / 三星在 $DRAM 领域……分析师预测 2027 财年远期市盈率仅约 2.8-3 倍。-> 三星签订至 2031 年的长期协议（LTA）（70% 产能）以确保耐用性…… -> SK Hynix 提供最低价格底线 + 无价格上限类型的合同。-> 未来一年内存短缺将更加严峻。-> DRAM/NAND 占超大规模云厂商资本支出的比例更高（Trendforce 估计为 68%）。-> 2027 年超大规模云厂商资本支出预测全部上调。至于 $SNDK，2030 年自由现金流（FCF）利润率预计达 50%，毛利率达 80%。我唯一不同意 Situational Awareness 持仓的是 $CRWV，因为债务利息侵蚀自由现金流，但我可以对 $BE、$INTC、$AMD 等提出类似的看涨论点。短期尚不确定，但中期来看：鉴于压倒性的基本面，很难不认为 Leopold 的持仓会走出与克拉默截然相反（Inverse Cramer）的走势。
英文原文
I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.
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AI算力需求长期锁定，短期恐慌不影响整体建设。
$IREN CEO 在 Anthropic 关于前沿模型放缓的通话中表示：“即使模型从此不再改进……仅部署现有能力所需的算力，也将超过世界未来数年能构建的总和。”我同意，当前叙事让人想起 $NVDA DeepSeek 抛售潮或 $GOOGL TurboQuant 恐慌。结果如何？这些每年发生一两次的恐慌最终都被证明对整体 AI 建设无关紧要。尤其是当我们的需求合同已涵盖从先进封装到内存采购直至 2030 年代的整个周期时。
英文原文
$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.
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NOR/SLC NAND严重短缺，ESMT因高密度产品受益最大，强烈看多。
NOR Flash“严重供应短缺”，高密度产品下半年持续涨价90-110%。 我想知道谁同时销售高密度NOR和SLC NAND？*咳咳，$ESMT* 上半年涨幅： NOR：+100–120% SLC NAND：+130–150% 下半年涨幅： 高密度NOR：下半年90-110% SLC NAND：~70–75%。 显然还有华邦电子/宏碁/兆易创新等其他厂商，但我对ESMT的观点和持仓是，相对于其体量，它是此次短缺的最大受益者。（他们销售NOR：>256Mb） 适度的看空部分是： “对于128Mb及以下的中低容量产品，中国供应商的额外产能正在逐步上线。 因此，消费级产品的价格上涨预计将趋于温和” 然而，这一更新对传统内存厂商的盈利来说，压倒性地看多。 让ASP（平均售价）涨价游戏继续吧。
英文原文
NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.
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讽刺投资者无视三星长期协议与低估值，仅因AI放缓言论而恐慌卖出。
曼·雷：你做多三星吗？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：三星拥有延伸至2031年的存储长期协议(LTA)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：而且它交易在约2.8倍的2027年预期市盈率(P/E)？ 帕特里克：是的。 曼·雷：所以你在买入三星？ 帕特里克：不，因为X说AI放缓会导致存储崩盘，我在下跌4%时卖出。
英文原文
Man Ray: are you long Samsung? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung? Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown
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AI巨头不会放缓研发，监管实为遏制竞争。
我认为 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 有意义地放缓前沿模型开发(frontier development)的概率几乎为 0%。 而且他们试图推动的大多数“监管”都是监管俘获(regulatory capture)，旨在减缓竞争。 1. Anthropic/OpenAI 不会自愿交出他们的...
英文原文
I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their
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询问博主对减缓AI发展速度的看法。
@aleabitoreddit 老板，您对放慢人工智能(AI)的发展速度怎么看？
英文原文
@aleabitoreddit What do you think about slowing down AI development, boss?
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甲骨文GPU高溢价续租证伪快速折旧论，利好AI算力租赁及英伟达。
虽然是周末，但我惊讶于自己错过了 $ORCL 财报中的这一信息。这对 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的影响相当积极，因为：甲骨文表示所有用于续租的 GPU 容量均以高于此前合同 20% 的溢价被重新售出。大部分设备机龄在 4 年以上……因此，这再次证伪了 Burry 关于 GPU 快速折旧的论点。而 $NVDA 和 Neocloud 阵营则赢了。
英文原文
It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
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博主强调帮助散户获取机构级研究是其首要任务。
我认为这里有一个需要填补的空白…… 因为我坚信散户投资者理应获得与机构投资者同等水平的研究资源和早期主题性投资思路，而机构通常能优先接触到这些。 我理解随着资金规模增长，大家自然会倾向于转向机构服务。 但帮助散户投资者一直是我的首要任务。而这一点……
英文原文
I think there’s a gap to fill… Since I believe retail deserves the same research and early thematic ideas that institutions access first. I feel like everyone understandably gravitates institutional as they grow. But helping retail has always been my priority. And that
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博主分享发现油轮运费ETF，并征集类似奇特投资标的。
如果你们有想法，下一个 $BWET 会是什么？ 需要更多像短期油轮运费期货 ETF 这样奇特的想法…… 直到上周我才知道这个产品的存在。https://t.co/kguL6svZNj
英文原文
What's the next $BWET if you guys have ideas? Need more weird ideas like short dated tanker freight future ETFs... I didn't know this existed until last week. https://t.co/kguL6svZNj
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指出因战争导致的油轮运输瓶颈使BWET一年内暴涨。
@aleabitoreddit 你错过了因“特朗普”为内塔尼亚胡发动战争而导致的 $BWET 油轮运输瓶颈。一年内从 10 美元涨到 700 美元。
英文原文
@aleabitoreddit You missed the $BWET tanker shipping bottleneck due to Drumpf's war for Netanyahu. $10 to $700 in a year.
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Leopold买入多只半导体股票期权，因隐含波动率高而不意外。
看起来“情境感知”又回来了： 消息人士称，Leopold 购买了 $AMD、$BE、$CRWV 和 $DRAM 的期权。 并且在 $SKHY 和 $SNDK 等其他股票上也有活跃操作。 鉴于整体期权隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)相当高，这并不令人意外。 https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
英文原文
Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
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呼吁X平台封禁付费水军网络，揭露其造假手段。
X 应该出去封禁每一个付钱让别人引用/评论其帖子的网络水军环。如果你想看看它是如何操作的：> 公司付钱给网红去评论/引用他们的帖子（现在有时会带标签）> 他们生成新账号，比如 ___ “finance” 或 ___ “<插入
英文原文
X should go out and ban every network ring that pays others to quote/comment on their posts. If you want to see how it’s done: > companies pay influencers to comment/quote their posts (now sometimes with labels) > they spawn new accounts like ___ “finance” or ___ “<insert
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Anthropic报告预示AI将重塑经济结构，利好资本密集型AI硬件板块。
Anthropic 的《经济情景》报告读起来很有趣：1. Anthropic 的“极端”情景显示 2030 年 GDP 增长达 15.4%，约为当前增速（~2.1% Y/Y）的 7.3 倍，这与 Elon Musk 关于 AI 将超越国债的说法一致。2. 几乎所有分歧发生在 2027 年之后。模型显示 2026-2027 年分离度较小，随后曲线在 2028-2030 年急剧弯曲。我的解读是：2026-2027 为基建年，2028-2030 为经济加速期。这与 $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL 的资本支出及短期 FCF 逆风（但 2028 年后预计巨额盈利）相吻合。3. 极端情景下，知识工作者失业率升至 17.9%，整体失业率 11.9%。“个人层面意味着程序员和客服可能需转行做电工和护士，这些受 AI 影响较小。”计算机科学专业 GG。4. 非认知工资：极端情景下比基准高 33.6%。电工/建筑类劳动力变得极具价值？（但这尚未计入人形机器人...）而 2030 年知识工作者工资比基准低 11.5%。5. 总资本收入比无 AI 时高约 81%。生产力爆炸 -> 总劳动收入几乎不变 -> 增量 GDP 几乎全归资本。因此资本所有权而非劳动... 使得计算、电力、半导体、网络、机器人等股票变得非常重要... TLDR: - 经济增长起飞 - 需思考的工作 = 失业 + 降薪 - 体力劳动更重要，如电工 - AI 股票起飞。
英文原文
Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028) 3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment "At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI." GG computer science majors. 4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario. So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...) Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline. 5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital. So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important... TLDR: - Economic growth go brr - Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages - Physical labor = more important, like electricians. - AI equities go brrr.
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暗示某只被隐藏代码的股票具有AI瓶颈股特征。
如果你遮住股票代码，你会以为这是一只AI瓶颈概念股。
英文原文
If you hid the ticker, you would think this was an AI bottleneck name.
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博主看好光子学供应链，认为激光器光纤将重现内存超级周期。
花旗银行TMT团队：“激光器和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM（高带宽内存）’。我从2025年就开始谈论像 $LITE / $AAOI 这样的激光器公司，以及向连续波(CW)架构的转变，这领先于当前的行业共识。我完全同意Lightmatter和花旗的观点。仅供参考：激光器方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / 古河电工 / 住友电工是较知名的标的。光纤方面：$GLW / 古河电工 / 古河光缆 / 住友电工是较知名的敞口（显然供应链中还有更多）。*披露，个人对该主题有持仓。补充评论称：‘紧张的供应状况将支持这些资产的稀缺性溢价。’我们已经看到激光器价格上涨，正如今天在深圳CIOE 2026上看到的 $SIVE 渠道检查以及 $LITE 的财报评论所示。因此，我认为2027-2028年的光子学超级周期将非常类似于2025-2026年的内存周期。尤其是随着高盛修正后的估计显示，每GPU-ASIC的光学内容将显著增加……
英文原文
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
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Nike只需做一件事即可挽救品牌形象。
$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象。
英文原文
$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象
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Astra需求激增致OpenAI或暂停新订阅，反映AI算力瓶颈。
对Astra的需求前所未有，以至于OpenAI可能会暂停新的Pro订阅。如果你需要翻译：AI基础设施建设+算力需求激增。
英文原文
Demand for Astra is unprecedented to the point OpenAI might pause new Pro subscriptions. If you want a translation: AI buildout + compute go brrr.
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高盛在最近的一份报告中上调了全球光模块市场预测：- 2026年：677亿美元（上调33%）- 2027年：1314亿美元（上调81%）- 2028年：1485亿美元（上调115%）对于 $NVDA Rubin Ultra，高盛增加了其模型中每GPU的光模块数量：1.6T：0 -> 2；3.2T：3 -> 5。高盛还将2027年1.6T及以上产品的预测提高了61%……这也非常重大，预计硅光子( Silicon Photonics )渗透率为80%。因此，每芯片的光学内容更多 = 更多的连续波(CW)激光器，更多的绝缘体上硅(SOI)衬底，光学公司日子好过。
英文原文
Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to: - $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028 For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T: 0 -> 2 3.2T: 3 -> 5 GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated. So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.
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存储瓶颈未变，供需失衡加剧，基本面与短期价格常背离。
既然 $MU 到 $SNDK 都实现了大幅反弹。很高兴能提醒一下，存储瓶颈（Memory Bottleneck）并没有改变！连续波激光器（CW Lasers）、衬底（Substrates）或其他领域也是如此。但短期情绪（取决于价格/宏观）往往会变化。我认为许多供需失衡（Demand Imbalances）会比人们预期的更严重：- 今天日经新闻提到一些日本分销商称存储需求缺口已达 40-60%（比供应高出 67-150%）。随着普遍价格到年底上涨 50%。- $SPCX 未包含在 $1.3T 超大规模云厂商资本支出（Capex）数据中（我认为 Wells Fargo 等估计 AI 资本支出约 2630 亿美元），因此总资本支出数据可能会令人惊讶。- $SNDK 预计 80% 的毛利率将持续到 2030 年……（欢迎来到标普 100 指数）- 再次强调，现在对 2031 年有了长期的可见性。像 Samsung Memory 这样的公司波动性非常大……我的一些持仓上涨了 270%+，所以我发现更容易在波动时期持有。但无论如何，运营基本面并不总是与短期价格走势一致。同样的概念也可以应用于其他板块。
英文原文
Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100) - and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods. But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements. Same concept can be applied to other sectors.
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博主赞赏粉丝学习其研究框架而非照抄个股
我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究，举一反三。或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于连续波(CW)激光器供需失衡的思路，应用到 A 股。很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票，并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！
英文原文
我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！
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博主暗示存在未探索的新领域。
实际上，有一个我尚未深入探索的全新宇宙……
英文原文
There's actually a whole new universe I haven't di…
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博主调侃某小市值生物公司看好OUST，并澄清自身无持仓。
@kevs_World02 某家市值9000万美元的生物技术公司，我宁愿不提名字哈哈。 不知为何，它也非常看好 $OUST（我并没有持仓）。
英文原文
@kevs_World02 Some random $90m MC biotech company that I'd prefer not to mention lol. It also really likes $OUST for some reason (don't have any).
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OpenAI 发布新产品 Astra 并宣布上线。
OpenAI 的 Astra 现已上线。https://t.co/foqBHhPGkH
英文原文
OpenAI's Astra is now available. https://t.co/foqBHhPGkH
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NVDA/AVGO受供应限制，AI技术突破，巨头受益。
让我理清一下，各位……你们拥有： $NVDA 70% 的营收增长预测受限于供应瓶颈（若无限制将超 100%） $AVGO AI 营收未来两年同比增速超 100%，从约 500 亿美元增至 2300 亿美元 OpenAI Astra 大幅超越 AGI 基准并开始自我训练。 $MSFT / $GOOGL
英文原文
Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL