$TSM
观点汇总
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Sereny 视台积电（TSM）为 AI 基础设施的绝对核心与垄断者，认为其护城河极深，英特尔等竞争者难以在十年内打破其格局。他看重 TSM 在供应链中不可替代的瓶颈地位，指出包括英伟达、博通、AMD 及各大超大规模云厂商在内的所有关键玩家均依赖其代工服务。其核心论点随时间从初期看好半导体板块反弹，演变为坚定认为 TSM 市值有望从 1.3 万亿升至 1.8 万亿美元。在操作层面，他明确表态通过定投和买入看涨期权（LEAPS）积极建仓，并在获利超 100% 后卖出部分期权进行获利了结，同时保留正股头寸。尽管他将 TSM 列为“买入”而非最高确信度的“极强买入”（后者为 NBIS），但他始终将其作为组合中约 5.5% 的核心配置，视其为风险较低、确定性高的长期持有标的，并在回调时持续逢低吸纳。
相关推文
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披露 Situational Awareness 基金 Q2 十大重仓股及持仓金额。
刚查看了 Leopold 的 Situational Awareness 基金截至 6 月 30 日的 Q2 13F 最新持仓： 1. $SNDK - 56.74 亿美元 2. $MU - 55.74 亿美元 3. $BE - 18.99 亿美元 4. $TSM - 12.65 亿美元 5. $NBIS - 12.32 亿美元 6. $CRWV - 7.445 亿美元 7. $CORZ - 6.656 亿美元 8. $STM - 5.843 亿美元（新增） 9. $APLD - 4.69 亿美元 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
英文原文
Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - https://t.co/z39L255LAu
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台湾半导体表现优异，Foci 快速复苏，质疑财报无视宏观。
值得注意的是，台湾的表现远远超越世界其他地区，如美国/欧盟。 Foci（$NVDA / $TSM FAU 供应商）股价从 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800，且在 7 月后恢复得极快。 不确定像 Etron 或其他公司的财报是否荒谬到完全无视宏观环境？https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
英文原文
Very interesting to notice Taiwan wildly outperform the rest of the World like US/EU. Foci ($NVDA / $TSM FAU supplier) went from 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800, and recovered insanely fast from July. Not sure if earnings like Etron or others are just absurd to not care about macro? https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
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Soitec 产能协议进展顺利，硅光子衬底垄断地位确立。
还记得我关于 $SOI 的论点吗？Soitec 今天的采访评论： - 预计 1-2 周内将敲定 80% 的产能预留协议，总数超过 10 份。 - $2 亿的光子学-SOI 营收现在被描述为“绝对底线”。 $TSM 也认为硅光子集成 (SiPH) 将在 2027 年成为主流，市场份额将超过光收发器市场的 50%+。 如果你在一个瓶颈环节占据垄断地位： （瑞银估计 Soitec 在支撑硅光子芯片的衬底市场占据 95% 份额） 收入通常会流经你。
英文原文
Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.
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台积电高管指出光引擎非瓶颈，激光器、光纤及测试环节才是部署关键。
$TSM 先进封装副总裁： “晶圆代工厂可以扩大光引擎的产能，但大规模部署的真正瓶颈在于其他地方…… 包括激光器、光纤、光纤连接器和测试”（UDN） 以下是一些分类思路： 激光器：$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa 光纤/FAU（光纤阵列单元）：Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo 光纤/CPO（共封装光学）连接器：BizLink, $GLW, Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO测试：MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma （披露：我持有上述主题的相关敞口，具体个股名称并非由台积电指定） 我也喜欢其他标的，例如ShunSin，它现在明确拥有TSMC COUPE（共封装统一封装引擎）的敞口，但可能属于封装/集成等不同类别。 例如：“富士康旗下ShunSin确认与台积电COUPE合作” 我认为相比上半年并没有太多新内容，除了持续的新闻（例如上周报告指出FAU在2027年可能出现供需失衡）。 但偶尔重申整体受益者还是很有帮助的……
英文原文
$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...
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AI周期虽有局部泡沫，但以NVDA和TSM为核心的结构性趋势将持续加速。
@Omardrisss 更广泛的AI超级周期（如前沿实验室估值、部分Neoclouds）中存在泡沫。偶尔会有些局部回调。但以$NVDA和$TSM为核心的整体主题看起来是结构性的，并将持续加速上行。
英文原文
@Omardrisss There’s bubbles within the broader AI supercycle (eg. frontier lab valuations, some Neoclouds). And some pop here and there. But the overall theme with $NVDA and $TSM in the center of it all looks structural and would keep ramping up.
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AMKR短期靠高价填补缺口增收，主要扩产预期在2028年。
@piyush1337 $AMKR 现有传统封装产能（如在菲律宾）利用率不足，如果那 20%+ 的缺口属实，可能会以更高价格填满，这对近期营收来说是“哗哗”进账。我仍认为主要扩产将在 2028 年初，一旦亚利桑那州的 $TSM + $NVDA 业务起飞。
英文原文
@piyush1337 $AMKR has existing traditional packaging capacity underutilized (like in Philippines), so if that 20%+ deficit is true Probably fills that up at higher prices so that's brrr to nearer term revenue. I still think the main ramp is early 2028 with Arizona once their $TSM + $NVDA stuff takes off.
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FAU产能不足或成CPO瓶颈，印证此前对NVDA/TSM供应链的预判。
我知道大家都在关注那些模仿南希·佩洛西的跟单者让 $BE 暴涨 11.83%。或者特朗普…… 但你们知道还有什么很酷的吗？ 共封装光学(CPO) 的 FAU 瓶颈。 我记得今年早些时候说过，FAU/Foci 可能会成为 $TSM / $NVDA CPO 路线图未来的瓶颈…… 这是支持这一观点的媒体评论： “据悉， Largan Precision (3008)、FOCI (3363) 和中国的 TFC 已进入 $NVDA FAU 供应链” “基于今年预计出货的 20,000 台 Spectrum-X 系统，这些系统中安装的光引擎将需要大约 60 万至 70 万个 FAU” “2027 年，需求预计将达到数百万台，而现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求。”（联合报，中文翻译为英文有点偏差） 咳咳，“现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求” 现在有点早，因为大规模生产预计要到 2027 年下半年，但读到这些更新还是很酷。
英文原文
I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.
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AI半导体板块分化，光学股复苏节奏各异，预期风险偏好回升将带动反弹。
@pkcapital_ 从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 来看，AI 半导体主题(AI semi theme)正在下跌。高贝塔(higher beta)个股似乎受到的打击最重。从我观察到的光学(optical)个股趋势来看，$LITE / $COHR 恢复最快，其次是规模更大但仍属高贝塔的个股如 $AAOI / $AXTI（恢复了一半）。而像 $SIVE / $POET 这类个股耗时最长。但我认为，当市场风险偏好(risk-on)回升或财报(earnings)推动重新评级(re-ratings)时，会出现更强劲的反弹。
英文原文
@pkcapital_ The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈显现，内存、基板、组件及先进封装需求强劲，行业加速扩张。
一些我感兴趣的要点摘要： - $SNDK 投资者日显示，预计至2030年调整后毛利率达80%，运营利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%。 长期协议(LTA)已占2028年产能的2/3。最低合同收入达930亿美元（当前市值约2390亿美元）... 当你的收入/目标预计在未来4年持续至2030年时，很难将其视为周期性股票。 - $CRWV 签署合同，将使用6年前的 $NVDA A100 GPU 直至2029年。 对于 Nebius/Iren 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)而言，这是利好，因为它反驳了如 Burry 的折旧看空论点。 - 据 UBS 估计，传统 DRAM 毛利率（如美光）到2027年将达到前所未有的95%，超越 HBM 毛利率。 如果预测准确，像南亚(Nanya)/华邦(Winbond)这样的传统/标准 DRAM 玩家应该会“起飞”(go brrrr)。 - 据报道，Anthropic 实现了14倍以上的同比增长，Q2环比收入增长约2.4倍至>115亿美元，预计2028年收入达190-2000亿美元。 你的前沿实验室保持疯狂的增长速度，如果不这样反而令人担忧。 - $NVDA 据报道正洽谈向 SB Energy（软银子公司）投资30亿美元，与 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman 等共同推动 >5000 亿美元的算力融资。$NVDA Feynman 预计2028年下半年转向 TSMC A16 + SoIC + 定制 HBM + 共封装光学(CPO)。 每天都有更多英伟达新闻。 - $MSFT Maia 300 讨论了 $TSM 2027年 >30万颗的产能，并计划扩展至100万+。最快9月发布。 $MRVL 对此消息可能更高兴。关于当前情况： - 可能是微软当前 ASIC 扩产的受益者(GUC)。 - 对于亚马逊阵营，像 Alchip（我持有股份）可能在2026年下半年随 $AMZN ASIC 项目扩产... 所以关注超大规模云厂商 ASIC 扩产时间表及其受益者可能是个好主意。 - $TSM 先进封装副总裁表示“行业未来几年可能不仅面临内存短缺，还将面临 ABF 基板供应紧张”... 强调内存和 ABF 基板在未来几年都是瓶颈。 甚至上游 ABF 基板设备供应商也很高兴，例如使用真空层压设备的 Eternal Precision 表示订单激增，工厂满负荷运行，价格上涨20%+。 - $AMAT 预计2026年先进封装收入增长 >70%（此前预期 >50%），并表示客户讨论已延伸至2030年。 （不太熟悉这家公司，但发现其从2025 Q4 $68亿 -> $70.1亿 -> 79.1亿 -> $91.2亿 -> 2026 Q4 $102.5亿的预测增长率很有趣） - Google 在 OCP APAC 表示传统 48V 已无余量。$NVDA 详细说明了2026年下半年兼容 MGX 的 800VDC 机架（时间线，Delta / Lite-On 受益）。 - 除 $SNDK 外，南亚 LTA 覆盖50%产能。CXMT 上月签署多年 DRAM 协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在效仿三大巨头的剧本。 - 探针卡(Probe cards)仍是瓶颈，MPI(6223)表示其探针卡产能因需求超过供应而保持满负荷。 本周早些时候已覆盖 CW 激光瓶颈（$AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE），那是另一个有趣的点。 - 据 Nichidenbo 称，部分 MLCC/组件交货期已达36周。 你的三星电机、太阳诱电、村田等玩家听到这个消息应该很高兴。 TLDR: AI 供应链疯狂加速(go brrr)。
英文原文
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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调侃AAOI名称难读，无人日常提及。
我依然坚信，在现实生活中没人知道怎么发音或谈论 $AAOI。它比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母。而且没人会对朋友说：“哇，我喜欢应用光电（Applied Optoelectronics）！”
英文原文
I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”
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博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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FORM财报显示CPO业务加速，处于早期爆发前夜，看好硅光子产业链。
以下是 $FORM 财报电话会议中关于共封装光学(CPO)的一些有趣要点： 由于“共封装光学(CPO)的加速增长”，系统收入几乎翻倍。 2026年Q1：“我们现在预计2026年CPO收入将达到1000万至2000万美元区间的高位。” 2026年Q2（当前）：“预计第三季度末将超过该区间，全年整体将显著超过2000万美元水平。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项[CPO]业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO采用前景。我们是否预期时间表会略微提前？ 答：“我想说的是短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示时间表没有显著提前。 引用生产基础设施（不仅是研发）用于： - 今年晚些计划量产的CPO芯片日益增长的出货量 + 用于扩展和扩展交换机的测试插入。 - 似乎CPO部分通过 $TSM 的 COUPE 流程 [可能对应 $NVDA 的CPO产品] - “CPO部分确实通过那10%的客户流向。” 因此，鉴于管理层提到CPO芯片出货量增长，测试环节正在爬坡。 “我们CPO业务的近期快速增长令人兴奋，我们认为这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中广泛采用的非常早期阶段。” 简而言之：从根本上说，CPO作为一个主题仍处于非常早期阶段，但由于它现在开始出现在财报中，应该很快就会爆发（设备/测试玩家通常会在光引擎/激光器出货量爬坡之前先出现）。 个人而言，一旦所有去杠杆过程停止，我认为市场将开始更加关注这一点。
英文原文
Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
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马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
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高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
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摩根士丹利研报梳理CPO产业链各环节关键参与者。
摩根士丹利今日发布关于共封装光学(CPO)的研报。关键参与者包括： - 激光供应：$SIVE、$COHR 和 $LITE - 交换平台：博通(Broadcom) 和英伟达(Nvidia) - 光学引擎与光子学：Lightmatter、Ayar Labs、Marvell/Celestial 和 POET - 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)：$TSM、$GFS 和 $TSEM https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
英文原文
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
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批评市场通过夸大技术细节看空NVDA和TSM的炒作现象。
显然，看空万亿市值公司正成为一种新潮流。比如 $NVDA 或 $TSM。通过挖掘孤立的技术细节，然后夸大其词，声称其整个项目都延期了。-> 如果公司不回应，股价/情绪就会...
英文原文
Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment
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美资买盘或造成结构性影响，TSM溢价印证此观点。
@yuntungshieh 嗯，也许美国买盘的涌入可能会产生结构性影响？ 但我确信，正如 $TSM 所表现出的溢价那样，情况大概如此。
英文原文
@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.
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Shunsin确认与TSM合作后暴跌，博主认为无实质利空。
@SidkMena 不知道，可能只是板块抛售。Shunsin 最近确认了与 $TSM 的直接共封装光学(COUPE) 合作伙伴关系。随后股价暴跌 15-20%。我认为除了 SemiAnalysis 反复唱空 Nvidia 生态系统外，没有其他实质性进展。
英文原文
@SidkMena Dunno, probably just sector selloff. Shunsin recebtly confirmed a direct $TSM COUPE partnership. Then proceeded to crash 15-20%. Don’t think there’s any material developments outside SemiAnalysis bearposting the Nvidia ecosystem over and over https://t.co/jxKIKup6F3
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博主认为半导体股回调是明确买入机会，质疑加息叙事。
就我个人而言，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM 的回调看起来是一个明确的买入机会。因为我们在没有任何新的实质性宏观经济数据（周四公布）的情况下，因诸如三次加息之类的 BS 叙事出现了大幅下跌。如果机构真的相信卖方关于三次加息的观点
英文原文
Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside
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博主批评彭博社错误将台积电和英伟达供应链比作泡沫。
彭博社在3月照搬美银针对韩综指的剧本，简直蠢透了。他们将台湾$TSM ~23.6倍远期市盈率(P/E)和$NVDA上游供应链描述为“泡沫”。接着用“债务”而非“利润率”一词，并将台湾市场与互联网泡沫(.com)相提并论。
英文原文
Nothing is more stupid than Bloomberg copying BofA playbook with KOSPI back in March. And framing Taiwan’s $TSM ~23.6x forward p/e and $NVDA upstream supply chain as a “bubble”. Then using the words going into “debt” instead of “margin” + comparing Taiwan’s market to the .com https://t.co/DPXpK4zhzq
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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富松因中国对日出口管制致钨源短缺而受益，单日涨幅远超指数。
我确实说过富松(093370)将成为中国对日本实施出口管制所造成瓶颈的主要受益者……大多数人追逐7.5%的指数回报，然而随机发现的瓶颈可能在一天内带来21%的涨幅，哈哈。
英文原文
I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan… Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol
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中国对日出口管制致WF6断供，利好韩国富山。
好吧，我的韩国同胞们，好久不见。 富山（093370，市值约12亿美元）看起来即将成为巨大的受益者。 基本上，中国对日本实施出口管制，导致其六氟化钨(WF₆)供应链中断。 这意味着SK海力士、三星和$TSM所需的世界25%的供应将告吹。
英文原文
Okay my fellow Koreans, it's been awhile. Foosung (093370, ~$1.2B MC) looks like a massive beneficiary soon. Basically China export controlled Japan, causing their WF₆ supply chain to go down. Meaning 25% of the world's supply required for SK Hynix, Samsung, $TSM go bye
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认为台积电可能是更适合投入的优质标的。
回复 @vipmoaa：$TSM 可能是最适合这样做的名字之一。 投资回报率大概会比你那辆不断贬值的车更好。
英文原文
@vipmoaa $TSM is probably one of the better names to do that for. Probably better RoI than your depreciating car
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提出精材作为台积电封测/CPO相关潜在机会。
精材(3374)看起来也是一个有趣想法（台积电封装/测试子公司）。 市值约21.8亿美元。 $TSM 的 COUPE 将在今年下半年，也就是2026年下半年开始量产。而且……他们计划“积极通过子公司精材追求 CPO 机会”。 这非常……
英文原文
Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very https://t.co/e3NXsmQd6v
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$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
英文原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
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台积电董事长称CoPoS未来2-3年放量，汽车和机器人也是增长方向。
$TSM 董事长：CoPoS 在未来2-3年的量会非常大，目前已经有试产线。 我原以为市场还会再等几个月，但 Visera（台积电子公司，相关敞口很大）已经有一点重估。 这可以作为明年的一个长线想法记在心里。大家一直说它严重延后，但未来2年放量意味着2028年。 自动机器人/自动驾驶汽车也被视为 $TSM 的增长领域。 汽车过去两年处于严重低迷，所以这个评论有些意外……虽然我现在到处都能看到 Waymo，这对 $XFAB 和其他当前低迷、但对该领域有很大敞口的公司是很好的验证。 所以这是触底信号，甚至进入高增长向量？我需要对这个想法和时间线再做一点研究。 这类小表述很容易吸引我的注意。
英文原文
$TSM chairman: CoPoS very large within 2-3 year volumes already pilot lines now. Thought markets would wait another few months but Visera (TSM subsidiary heavy exposure) already got re-rated a bit. Just something to keep in mind as a long idea next year, everyone kept saying it’s heavily delayed but next 2 years volume implies 2028. Automous robots / autonomous vehicles seen as growth areas for $TSM. Automotive was in a major slump last 2 years so this is a surprise comment… even tho I see Waymo’s everywhere now great validation for $XFAB and others in a slump now with large exposure to that segment. So signals of a bottom, into even a high growth vector? Will need to do a little more research into that thought/timeline. Just little statements like this catch my eye.
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指出精材3374可能是未知的TSM COUPE供应商。
回复 @RockyKh49376975：可能就是 Xintec（3374），它算是一个不太为人所知的 $TSM COUPE 供应商。 而且它刚好也由台积电持有。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.
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提出精材3374作为台积电COUPE封测子公司机会。
$TSM COUPE 供应商想法： 另一个是我有敞口的 Xintec（3374）。 这是 $TSM 的测试子公司，目前股价255，市值约21亿美元。 最大的疑问是它们是否和 COUPE 有关联……否则我不会建仓。 但最近有报告确认了台积电的垂直整合计划： “台积电正在建立硅光子帝国，积极通过子公司 Xintec 和 VisEra 寻求共封装光学(CPO)机会，据未具名供应链消息人士称…… 台积电预计将在5月14日（周四）于台湾新竹技术论坛上重点谈其硅光子计划，包括 COUPE 平台。” 所以如果它们是“积极追求机会”，对我来说基本就盖棺定论了。 无论如何，由于 $TSM 持有它，这个多头已经去风险。COUPE 带来上行？ 我个人觉得这是一个有趣想法。
英文原文
$TSM COUPE supplier idea: Another is Xintech (3374) that I have exposure to. This is $TSM’s testing subsidiary, currently trading at 255 ~$2.1B MC. Biggest wonder was if they were linked to COUPE… otherwise I wouldn’t take positions. But some report recently confirmed TSM’s vertical integration plans: “TSMC is building a Silicon Photonics empire, aggressively pursuing Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) opportunities with subsidiaries **Xintec** and VisEra citing unnamed supply chain sources… TSMC is expected to talk up its SiPho plans, including its COUPE platform May 14 (Thursday) at its Technology Symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan.” So that kinda seals the deal for me if they’re “aggressively pursuit opportunities”. Derisked long anyway given $TSM owns it. Upside from COUPE? Thought it was an interesting idea personally.
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谷歌为AI资本开支融资，利好上游生态。
我从没想过会看到 $GOOGL 需要为 AI 资本开支融资800亿美元的这一天…… 然后沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 在为超大云厂商 AI 建设提供资金。 - 400亿美元 ATM、300亿美元发行、伯克希尔100亿美元 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO、联发科、$TSM、$MU 的上游生态应该会一路受益。
英文原文
I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. https://t.co/CxvctNZyMC