· 供应链分析
FOCI（3363）在现在这个位置上，作为 CPO 敞口看起来极具吸引力，市值大概只有 33.5 亿美元。 1. $TSM COUPE 先进封装负责人暗示，FOCI 提供的 FAU 供给会是量产中的大瓶颈。 2. Morgan Stanley note 预计他们会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，市占率最高可到 50%。 3. $HIMX 释放了创纪录需求的信号，而且表示 Foci 应该扩产，这意味着中期需求可见度很高。 4. 根据 Goldman Sachs 的研究，FAU 和光学组件占 CPO 相关 BOM 的很大比例。 5. 总体 CPO TAM 按 GS 的说法，未来两年会从接近 0 增长到 910 亿美元。 方向上我对这个主题非常有信心（NFA），尽管短期市场波动很大。 风险在于后续 generation 被设计替代。 但在未来 1-2 年里，我认为它有很高的重估潜力，相比其他名字也许需要持续跟踪。 只是顺手分享一下我持有的更纯 CPO 敞口思路。
FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.