· 供应链分析

马斯克极度看好人形机器人,特斯拉正从零构建新供应链,利好上游供应商。

涉及标的:

相关概念: 特斯拉 Optimus机器人产业链

中文翻译

以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记: 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示:“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1,马斯克就说过:“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品,可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面,$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示: “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同,还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此,除了已知的供应商外,寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片,看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台,Giga Texas 是 1000 万台,所以从规模上看,$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提,马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU,鉴于他的声明,可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA): “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间,并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下,以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”(仅针对结构性内存需求)。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下,后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产(之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD),以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR: 马斯克在判断未来方向(如电动汽车或太空)时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。

英文原文

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

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