$AEHR
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汇总粉丝提出的800V直流供电相关标的清单。
好了，大家，这是你们最喜欢的 800V 直流供电(800V DC)相关想法汇总清单。 1. $IFNNY - 1158亿美元 2. $ON - 462亿美元 3. Lite-On(2301) - 160.3亿美元 4. 6504.T - 141亿美元 5. $VICR - 128亿美元 6. $LFUS - 115.7亿美元 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - 83.4亿美元 8. $VSH - 78.6亿美元 9. $ENPH - 73.6亿美元 10. $NVTS - 57.7亿美元 11. $POWI - 43.0亿美元 12. $BDC - 41.8亿美元 13. $EOSE - 38.6亿美元 14. $SEDG - 38.2亿美元 15. $AEHR - 31亿美元 16. 6890.T - 26.6亿美元 17. $WOLF - 21.6亿美元 18. $CWR.L - 17.5亿美元 19. $AMSC - 16.8亿美元 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - 16.8亿美元 21. $XFAB - 15.4亿美元 22. $AOSL - 12.5亿美元 23. $HYLN - 12.3亿美元 24. $FCEL - 8.35亿美元 25. $IQE.L - 7.80亿美元 26. $ASYS - 2.76亿美元 27. $RELL - 2.39亿美元 28. 6844.T - 2.22亿美元 29. 4973.T - 2.07亿美元 30. $PAY.BR - 1.89亿美元 31. 6616.T - 1.86亿美元 32. 6882.T - 1.24亿美元 33. $IPWR - 9600万美元 我也把你们提到的一些相邻标的放了进去，比如 $FCEL 或 $EOSE，虽然我不确定它们的敞口是否真的很好。像有人提到的 $POET 这种明显不太相关的，我就忽略了。 评论大概有500条，但我猜 X 限制了我能看到的内容。 我们拭目以待，看看你们最高信念的想法表现如何。
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
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AEHR市值约35亿美元，等待LPK等玩家批量订单。
$AEHR 的好日子来了，现在市值约35亿美元。 我最近没怎么提它，因为没有太多新东西。 只是等待 $LPK 以及其他这类玩家的批量订单。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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对比NBIS、AEHR和IREN走势，强调IREN表现较差。
回复 @ryansfinance：我觉得你忘了 $NBIS 从90美元 -> 235美元 -> 180美元。 $AEHR 从25美元 -> 110美元 -> 77美元。 而 $IREN 从45美元 -> 70美元 -> 45美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance Think you’re forgetting $NBIS went from $90 -> $235 -> $180. $AEHR went from $25 -> $110 -> $77 While $IREN went from $45 -> $70 -> $45
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
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AEHR 一个月快涨 3 倍，说明节奏把得很准
顺便说一句，$AEHR 已经在 1 个月里接近涨了 3 倍。 我好像确实很擅长抓时间点？？ https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR is up close to 3x in 1 month by the way. I tend to get timing extremely well?? https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
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强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
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LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
原推 ↗英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
原推 ↗英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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AEHR 3 倍上涨后仍在等待量产信号
@tnglxn4 $AEHR 不是已经在我点出之后涨了 3 倍吗？ 股价本来就不会直线上涨。 我现在在等量产爬坡的新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tnglxn4 $AEHR just went up 3x after I called it? Things don’t move in a straight line. Waiting for volume ramp news.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
原推 ↗英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
原推 ↗英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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AEHR 还很早，近端已计价
@workoutwithp 从长期看 $AEHR 还非常早。他们才刚在一个客户身上开始量产爬坡…… 而其他客户（比如他们那个一线光收发器客户）会在未来几年陆续补上。 以当前估值来看，我会说近端已经计价得比较充分了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@workoutwithp $AEHR long term is very early. The only started volume ramp with one customer… And others will pick up (like their t1 optical transceiver one) over the next few years. For current valuations, I’d say it’s more priced in near term.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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AEHR 被重新定价
我说过了，$AEHR 正在起飞。 当你把市值做到一定程度，基本上就是机构在主导价格了。 如果你找到一家很多超大规模云厂商都在用的公司……它被重估几乎是注定的？
原推 ↗英文原文
Told ya. $AEHR is cooking. Once you reach a certain point with MC it’s mostly institutions driving price. If you find a name that a ton of hyperscalers use… it’s feels bound to get repriced? https://t.co/AHqpgbqHJK
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上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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HPS.A 已经涨很多
$HPS.A 自从我两周前发 thesis 以来已经涨了 21%。 可惜不是所有东西都能像 $AXTI 那样每两周涨 100%？ 如果变压器瓶颈真的会持续很多年…… 有时候还是要等市场把这些定价进去。 $AEHR 或 $AAOI 那种几周内就三位数的涨幅，可能把预期拉得太高了…… 10% 年化回报在市场里通常就已经不错了？ 目前它涨了 21%，但还有人问这算不算好，我还是希望它将来继续走出三位数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
$HPS.A is up 21% since my thesis 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, not everything can go up 100% every 2 weeks like $AXTI? If the transformers bottleneck is that extreme for multiple years… Sometimes it’s better to wait for markets to price that in. $AEHR or $AAOI triple digit rallies in few week timeframes probably set unrealistic expectations… Even 10% return yearly is usually good in markets? This has been 21% so far and I have comments asking if this is still good, but I’m hoping it’s another triple digit return in due time.
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回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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AEHR 获得 4100 万美元产线订单。
$AEHR 从核心 hyperscaler 客户那里拿到了 4100 万美元的量产订单。 我在财报后就说过，他们暗示“很快”会开始放量。 就是这个。$AEHR 今天因消息上涨了 13%。 https://t.co/rpF3qTHoJz
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR receives $41M production order from lead hyperscaler customer. As I said after earnings, they indicated volume ramp “shortly after”. This is it. $AEHR +13% today on the news. https://t.co/rpF3qTHoJz
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分析ALRIB作为超大规模云厂商关键供应商的量子/硅光投资逻辑，预期被重估。
其实不需要对 $ALRIB 写得很详细吧？ >Riber 与 $VECO 在 MBE 设备上形成有效的盈利双头垄断格局，此前交易时远期倍数较低。 >从公开信息发现 $MSFT Quantum 是 Riber 的核心超大规模云厂商买家 >其他客户包括 $IQE、QD Laser（量子点）、IntelliEPI 等。 思考过程： 还有哪些市值低于10亿美元的公司直接向 $GOOGL、$MSFT 等超大规模云厂商供应产品，用于他们的前沿(frontier)项目？ 而且这些供应商是否关键到无法被替代？ 除了 $AEHR 我真的想不出其他公司，但 $AEHR 现在市值已经从6亿美元涨到23亿美元了…… 所以我认为 $ALRIB 对于量子/硅光子领域的敞口很有吸引力。 如果一家市值约3亿美元的盈利公司正在为超大规模云厂商的前沿量子项目提供支持…… 很可能在未来某个时间点被重新估值到三位数（美元）。
原推 ↗英文原文
It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB? > Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples. > $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery > $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it. Thought process: What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs? And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced? Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m... So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure. If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program… Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.
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列出硅光晶圆测试瓶颈相关的几个标的。
“硅光扩产碰到了晶圆测试瓶颈” - $FORM（ficontec 离开后更有帮助），$AEHR - 台湾这边有 MPI（6223）、MA-tek（3587）、MSScorps（6830） - 再往上还有大市值的 $TER、Advantest（6857） 如果你感兴趣，这些大概是我脑子里能立刻想到的一些不错曝光。 我很快会给大家做一个更深入的 ETF 版本。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Silicon photonics scaling hits wafer testing bottleneck" - $FORM (helps that ficontec left), $AEHR - Over in Taiwan MPI (6223), MA-tek (3587), MSScorps (6830) - Then large cap Cap - $TER, Advantest (6857) Are some decent exposure off the top of my head if you’re curious. I’ll make a deeper dive ETF for you all soon.
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
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批评只看技术图形的分析，强调基本面、催化和现金流建模。
那些收 500 美元一个月、只会画线的人，大概是我最烦的存在了……尤其是当他们还会在我的 thesis 帖子下面评论，比如 $AEHR 财报那种。 股价是由基本面和催化推动的。技术分析只是自我实现的占星术；如果 $AMZN 有一笔巨大的采购订单，没人会在乎技术面说的“超买”，真正重要的是把这会带来多少自由现金流，相对于市值要怎么建模。 $IREN 也是一样，居然还有人拿技术图去画它，而市场里明明有 60 亿美元的稀释，图表根本没把这部分算进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Swiggly line drawers that charge $500 a month are possibly the greatest annoyance to me... Especially when they comment underneath my thesis posts like $AEHR earnings. Stocks move based on fundamentals and catalysts. TA is astrology self-fulfilling prophecies but if $AMZN has a massive purchase order, nobody cares about "overbought" based on TA it's about modeling in how much FCF that brings relative to MC. Same with anyone who tries drawing a TA for $IREN when there's literally $6,000,000,000 in dilution that a chart doesn't account for.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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认为 AEHR、ALRIB 也可能 10 倍，IQE 具备很强的 InP 产能潜力。
@yuntungshieh 老实说，我也不会惊讶如果 $AEHR 或 $ALRIB 最后都能涨 10 倍。 不过 $IQE 有很多潜在的 InP 产能，只是他们需要重组并重新梳理自己的反应炉。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yuntungshieh Honestly would not be surprised if $AEHR or $ALRIB 10x either. But $IQE had a lot of latent capacity for InP, they just needed to restructure and refactor their reactors.
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分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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庆祝 AEHR 的上涨，并调侃很多散户不懂资格认证周期。
@justaladd_ 很高兴 $AEHR 最后还是帮到你了！是啊，这轮反弹真的相当夸张。 看到那么多散户因为不理解资格认证周期而去做空，挺有意思的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@justaladd_ Glad $AEHR worked out for you! Yeah this rally was pretty incredible. It was funny to see so many retail investors going short because they don’t understand qualification cycles https://t.co/xZZcSF3swF
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调侃要多少只三位数股票才够“逃离下层阶级”。
@0xInitialAce 你还需要多少只三位数涨幅的股票，才能逃离“下层阶级”？ 感觉 $AAOI 4 倍、$AXTI 5 倍、$AEHR 2 倍、$IQE 2 倍、$LITE 2 倍，再加上别的，应该已经够了吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
@0xInitialAce How many more triple digit stocks do you need to escape the underclass? Feels like $AAOI 4x, $AXTI 5x, $AEHR 2x, $IQE 2x, $LITE 2x, and others should be enough?
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复盘自己在对冲不利后仍有 759% YTD，并强调择股和催化时点的重要。
不，我在今天整体反弹之后，年初至今还是保守地涨了 759%。 对冲拖累太多了。 如果不是指数和很多个股，比如 $RDDT，在宏观压力下跌得太厉害，我本来会涨得更多。 但如果你挑的是像 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 这样的精选赢家…… 在超大规模客户供应链里： 结果就是，你真的有可能跑赢市场。 我确实觉得，找到每个行业里的关键玩家并且把催化时点踩准，比看上去更难。 比如 $TSEM 在我买入之前基本全年横盘，然后 3 周里反弹了 90%，所以时点也很重要（比如 OFC 公告）。 而且我在找到那个未知的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃衬底供应商之后，还因此得了 PTSD…… 结果他们没多久又被 Apollo 收购了。 所以也不是总能开心收场。 但如果我的想法帮助了别人跑赢指数，或者看清前沿行业的方向，那我还是很高兴的。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, I’m still at a conservative 759% YTD after today’s overall rally. Lost too much from hedging. Would probably be up more if indexes and many individual names like $RDDT weren’t so down from macro. But if you pick selective winners like $AAOI or $AEHR … in hyperscaler supply chains: Turns out it’s possible outperform markets? I do think it’s a tad harder than it looks finding important players in each sector and timing catalysts. $TSEM was basically flat the entire year until I bought, then it rallied 90% in 3 weeks, so timing important too (eg. OFC announcements). And I’ve developed PTSD after finding the unknown $TSM COUPE glass substrates supplier… Only to watch them get bought out by Apollo shortly after. So not always having a good time. But glad if my ideas helped others outperform indexes or see where frontier industries are heading to.
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认为 AEHR 的快速上涨源于对资格认证周期和量产爬坡的误读。
哇，$AEHR 一周内就几乎翻了三位数回报。 这简直是在“用 Serenity 101 逃离永久下层阶级”这门课里高速刷进度。 先不说这个，理解资格认证周期对于看股票或看财报真的很有帮助。 很多散户在财报后直接做空，只看当前收入，而没有看到量产爬坡 + 所有超大规模客户都在测试订单这件事。
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah, $AEHR almost triple digit return in 1 week. This is speed running “Escape the Permanent Underclass with Serenity 101”. That aside, it helps to understand qualification cycles when you look at stocks or ER. A lot of retail investors went short after ER by looking at current revenue rather than volume ramp + all ongoing hyperscalers testing out orders.
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建议在下一次回调中考虑更大市值的高增长半导体公司。
@NabQ321 问得好！$AAOI、$AEHR 是两只 beta 极高、增长极快的股票。 下一次回调时，也许可以看看 $COHR、$TSEM、$SMTC、$MRVL、$INTC 或 $FN 这些更大的公司？ 像 AOI 或 AEHR 这样的公司其实非常稀少。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NabQ321 Good question! $AAOI, $AEHR are two extremely high beta, fast growth stocks. Maybe some larger companies like $COHR, $TSEM, $SMTC, $MRVL, $INTC or $FN on the next drop? Companies like AOI or AEHR are pretty rare to come by.
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认为 AEHR 的市值目标可能在 1.5 年内达到 100 亿。
@Yolo365247isme @raghavrmehta 我觉得 $AEHR 在一年半内达到 100 亿美元市值是有可能的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Yolo365247isme @raghavrmehta $10B MC on $AEHR seems possible in 1 1/2 years.
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强调自己在市场上涨前就公开给出 thesis，并嘲讽 IREN 看空者。
听见了吗，匿名网友？？ $AAOI 和 $AEHR 这周都已经涨了 50%+。 我会在任何行情启动之前就公开写出自己的 thesis，而且不会收成千上万美元来给你看股票池。 如果你还在听那些 $IREN 投资者说什么“因为 2025 年市盈率所以会做空或者要崩”，那不如去玩 PayPal 或 $SPY 吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? $AAOI and $AEHR both up 50%+ this week alone. I post my thesis publicly BEFORE any movement happens and without charging thousands to see stock picks. If you’re listening to $IREN investors why these are “short or going to dump because of 2025 P/E ratios” maybe stick to PayPal or $SPY.
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认为 IREN 多头转而做空 AEHR / AAOI 反而是在添柴。
@si0xac4742 是啊，很多 $IREN 投资者都被我惹毛了，还试图去做空 $AEHR 或 $AAOI…… 不过我觉得他们现在只是给火上浇油而已，因为 $AEHR 已经涨了 24%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@si0xac4742 Yeah a lot of the $IREN investors got mad at me and tried shorting $AEHR or $AAOI... I think they're just adding fuel to the fire at this point since $AEHR is up 24%.
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看好 AEHR，并指出很多散户误解资格认证周期和量产爬坡。
是的，我后来把仓位更集中在 $AEHR 上了，因为它拿到了像 $LITE、$AVGO 或 $COHR 这样的新硅光一线客户。 很多散户误解了资格认证周期 -> 量产爬坡，所以才去做空。 看到散户试图做空 $AAOI 和 $AEHR，最后却在超级周期里遭遇无限亏损，真的很夸张。
原推 ↗英文原文
yeah i decided have a higher concentration on $AEHR after the new silicon photonics t1 customer like $LITE, $AVGO, or $COHR. a ton of of retail investors misunderstood qualification cycles -> volume ramp so they went short. its crazy to see retail try and short $AAOI and $AEHR just to face infinite losses in a supercycle.
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认为 AEHR 上涨是市场误读资格认证周期和只看当前收入所致。
$AEHR 这表现也太猛了。 今天又涨了 20%。 对所有空头来说，这就是你误解半导体名字里的资格认证周期会发生什么。 然后还只盯着当前收入数字去看。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not too shabby with $AEHR. Up +20% today. For all the bears, this is what happens when you misunderstand qualification cycles in semi names. Then try and look at current revenue numbers only. https://t.co/9hU4UwNyRE
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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抱怨高粉账号收费昂贵，却又批评免费分享的 alpha。
我已经受够了那些 10 万以上粉丝的账号——他们一年收 2000 多美元，只是为了让你看他们选了什么票…… 然后又会对那些免费分享从 $AAOI 到 $AXTI 这些名字的人感到不爽…… 还会用去年营收去评判 $AEHR 或 $SIVE，却完全不理解 2027 年的 CPO / SiPh 放量。 感觉这些账号终有一天会被慢慢淘汰，因为大家会意识到，alpha 可以免费拿，不必花几千美元去买。
原推 ↗英文原文
Getting tired of 100K+ follower accounts that who charge $2,000+ a year just to see their stock picks… That then get frustrated over someone who shares names from $AAOI to $AXTI for free… And then judge $AEHR or $SIVE by previous year revenue without understanding CPO/SiPH ramp in 2027. Feels like these accounts will get eroded over time as people realize they can get alpha for free instead of paying thousands for it.
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看好 AEHR，但更偏好 LITE、AAOI，认为 SIVE 上行空间最大。
@peedgdev 我看多 $AEHR，但它不是我的第一选择。 如果说光子学板块里我最喜欢的，其实是 $LITE 和 $AAOI。然后上行空间最大的则是 $SIVE。 我最喜欢的是激光敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@peedgdev Bullish on $AEHR, but not my #1 pick. I'm actually a fan of $LITE and $AAOI in the photonics space the most. Then highest upside is $SIVE. I like laser exposure the most.
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解释从测试到量产放量会带来多年收入增长，而财务数字不如客户结构重要。
如果硅光子等领域的客户从测试阶段转向大规模下单（量产），那应该会给公司带来持续数年的收入增长。 $AEHR 仍处于早期阶段，现在很多超大规模客户都在测试他们的产品，所以你的总结是对的。我认为当前财务数据没有客户结构（客户画像）和量产扩张信号那么重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
もし、シリコンフォトニクス分野などの顧客がテスト段階から大量発注（量産）の段階へと移行すれば、それは同社に数年間にわたる収益拡大をもたらすはずです。 $AEHR はまだ初期段階にあり、現在多くのハイパースケーラーが同社のテストを行っているところですので、あなたの要約は的を射ています。現在の財務状況は、顧客プロファイル（顧客層）や量産拡大の指標ほど重要ではないと私は考えています。
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分析$POET低风险高现金特征及作为$MRVL独家供应商的投资逻辑
这事很微妙。$POET 下行风险低，因为大家都已经被稀释过了。 所以他们的现金储备约$4亿对比市值，缓冲了下行风险。 所以企业价值(EV)约$4-5亿，这对作为$MRVL独家供应商来说很划得来，即使几年后被技术替代。我还没看到他们有更多主要客户的多元化，这令人担忧。但如果他们真能轻松做成几十亿的公司，其他人可以去冒这个风险。 如果你看我个人选的股票，像$AEHR（也许还有$GOOGl、$AMD、$INTC，以及另一个光收发器客户）。 像$SIVE 一样，同样的$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar -> Alchip，以及其他市值更低的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's nuanced. $POET has low downside risk because everyone already got diluted. So their cash balance sheet is extremely high ~$400m vs. MC, which cushions downside risk. So EV is like $400-500m which is great for the sole source $MRVL Celestial supplier, even if they get engineered out in a few years. I haven't seen them have more lead customer diversification yet, which is concerning. But if they do easily few billion company, and other ppl can take that risk. If you look at the names I personally pick like $AEHR ( maybe $GOOGl, $AMD, $INTC, and another optical transceiver customer). With stuff like $SIVE, it's the same $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar -> Alchip, and others at a lower MC.
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称“lead hyperscale customer”的大额预期属于量产订单，而非普通财务数据能直接体现。
@4intheflames 他们原话基本就是：“我们看到我们的主超大规模客户对 Sonoma 系统给出了非常可观的预测，用于高产量生产。” 这就是量产订单。我们不会在当前财务里看到它到底有多大，得等电话会让 CEO 再展开说明。
原推 ↗英文原文
@4intheflames They literally said: "We are seeing significant forecasts from our lead hyperscale customer for our Sonoma systems for high-volume production" That's mass order. We won't see how much that is in current financials, need to wait for earnings call for CEO to elaborate.
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认为若 2027 年出现量产订单，市场会提前给 AEHR 重新定价。
如果量产订单真在 2027 年落地，$AEHR 现在就会被重新定价。而且在他们这次电话会里，我们会得到更多线索，因为他们已经提到了“来自我们主超大规模客户的重要预测”。 $AAOI 在财报后因为 CEO 提到 2027 年下半年每月 3.78 亿美元的目标，股价直接重估了 2-3 倍。 我不会拿当前近端的资格认证订单去判断明年会走到哪里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again, if mass orders happen 2027, $AEHR will re-rate today. And we'll get more indication about it in their earnings call now as they signaled "significant forecasts from our lead hyperscaler". $AAOI got re-rated 2-3x after earnings because the CEO signaled $378m/month H2 2027. I would not look at current near-term qualification orders in financials to indicate where it's heading next year.
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强调资格认证阶段的小订单不会体现在财务里，市场会提前计价量产放量。
如果 $AEHR 拿下像 $LITE 或 $COHR 这样的主要光学公司， 这些都不会马上体现在当前财务数字里，因为那只是量产爬坡前的资格认证小订单。 很多人误解了资格认证周期是怎么运作的。市场是前瞻定价的，所以如果他们在财报电话会上说 2027 年会进入量产放量，那这件事现在就会被计入股价。
原推 ↗英文原文
If $AEHR lands a major optical company like $LITE or $COHR. It’s not going to show up in current financial numbers because these are small qualification orders before mass volume ramp. This is misunderstanding how qualification cycles work. Markets are forward looking so if they state mass order ramp for 2027 in their earnings call, it’s going to get priced in now.
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指出 AEHR 当前不靠当前财务，关键在量产爬坡和超大客户近端放量。
从当前数字看，它并不算多头，因为 $AEHR 现在还处于资格认证周期里。 真正的关键在量产爬坡，而他们说过，来自某个超大规模客户的近端放量预期很强（这一点是利好）。 这些都不会反映在当前财报里，而会体现在下一季度的业绩里。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s nuanced. If you look at current numbers alone, it’s not bullish because $AEHR is currently in their qualification cycles. It’s all about volume ramp, and they said they’re expecting significant near term volume from one of the hyperscalers (this part is bullish) This is not reflected in current financial statements but in next quarter earnings.
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称 AEHR 已确认近端生产爬坡和后续订单，未来营收要看本季兑现。
@r99rr99r 在 $AEHR 财报里，他们确认了近端生产爬坡，以及“有意义”的后续订单。 这对 $AEHR 是利好，我预计本季度内我们就会看到这些订单会转化成多少收入。 我不会拿今天的数字去给未来利润定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
@r99rr99r In $AEHR ER, they confirmed near term production ramp, and “signficiant” follow up orders. This is bullish for $AEHR and I expect sometime this quarter we’ll see how much revenue that translates to. I wouldn’t look at today’s numbers to price in future earnings.
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Aehr获超大规模客户量产订单确认，从资格认证转入大规模生产阶段。
$AEHR财报： - 当前积压订单：季度末为3870万美元，"有效积压订单"为5090万美元 - FY26下半年指引：维持对下半年2500万至3000万美元收入的预期 对财报的看法： 可以直接忽略当前财报，主要指标看的是超大规模客户在H2的产量爬坡。 产量爬坡信号确认： 1. "我们看到主要超大规模客户对我们的Sonoma系统发出了大量预测订单，用于其定制AI处理器ASIC的高产量生产老化测试" 2. "我们预计该客户近期将追加大量系统的后续生产订单，计划在Aehr的2027财年交付" 这正是市场预期的$AEHR从资格认证转向大规模量产的过程，类似$AAOI，我们得到了这个确认。 H2可能是进一步确认某大客户产量爬坡将延续到2027年。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR earnings: - Current Backlog: $38.7 million as of the end of the quarter, with an "effective backlog" of $50.9 million -H2 FY26 Guidance: Reiterated expectations for $25 million to $30 million in revenue for the second half of the year Thoughts on earnings: Can just ignore current earnings, main indicators are around hyperscaler volume ramp H2. Volume ramp indication confirmations: 1. "We are seeing significant forecasts from our lead hyperscale customer for our Sonoma systems for high-volume production burn-in of their custom AI processor ASICs" 2. "We expect a significant near-term follow-on production order from this customer for a large number of systems to be shipped during Aehr's fiscal year 2027" This is what is expected with $AEHR transitioning from qualification to mass volume like $AAOI and we got that confirmation. H2 is probably more confirmation around siph customer volume ramp into 2027.
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承认 SOI 近期涨幅一般，并指出并非所有票都能像 LITE、AEHR、AAOI 那样强。
@Michael_Tran_90 是啊，$SOI 自从我买入以来也就涨了 11% 左右，挺遗憾的。 并不是所有票在这种宏观环境下都能像 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI 那样强势跑赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Michael_Tran_90 Yeah, $SOI is only up 11% from when I bought unfortunately. Not everything hard-outperforms this macro climate like $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI.
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表示自己最喜欢 AEHR。
@AizuddinAl4653 我个人最喜欢 $AEHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AizuddinAl4653 I personally like $AEHR the most
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认为 AEHR 仅一天就涨幅可观，可能被低估。
$AEHR 这波真是很快。 涨了 14.28%……我原本确实觉得它是下一个硅光瓶颈中心，市值大概 11 亿美元，还有很多超大规模客户在做认证。 可能之前确实低估它了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well that was fast with $AEHR. Up +14.28%… I did think the center of the next silicon photonics bottleneck at $1.1B, with tons of hyperscalers qualifying it. Was kind of undervaluing it. https://t.co/gDVc6xzF85
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把内存仓位更集中到 SiPh/CPO 相关标的，并期待 SK 海力士和三星财报带来反弹。
@B38B37 我个人把内存相关仓位更多转向了 SiPh/CPO 相关的名字，比如 $AEHR、$SIVE 和 $SOI。 我现在还是有不少内存敞口，只是比今年早些时候少一些。不过我确实预计接下来 SK 海力士和三星的财报会再带来一轮上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 I personally pivoted concentration in memory more toward siph/cpo names like $AEHR $SIVE and $SOI. I still have a good amount of memory exposure but less than earlier this year. However I do expect the upcoming sk Hynix and Samsung earnings to trigger another rally
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认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
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批评用传统模型建模CPO放量期收入，分享如何识别光子学超级周期中的纯正概念股。
请停止尝试为2025-2026年CPO/SiPH放量期的收入建立模型了……当我上个月在约115美元（现已四舍五入到200美元）查看$TSEM时，前瞻市盈率压缩至约16-18倍（在成长情景下低至10-12倍）。同样的逻辑也适用于$AEHR/$SIVE/$SOI/Win Semi等其他标的。这是2026年上半年。量产的放量将出现在2026年下半年。我们正处在一个大规模超级周期的最早期阶段，而这些是我在光子学下一代架构变革中最纯正的概念股配置：用于测试、CW激光器、衬底和晶圆代工的公司，在光子学超级周期的新范式转换中占有一席之地。像$LITE或$AAOI这样我去年长期持有的公司已经跨越了多个周期。然而，最大的回报来自于提前预判哪些公司将在未来收入/TAM增长中获得最大收益（这部分尚未反映在当前股价中）。不是用过去2年的历史回报来计算公允价值。而且当我们看一个庞大的新型光子学TAM（lightcounting的牛市情景预测为1100亿美元以上），主要由使用CW激光器作为示例的架构驱动，或在良率方面遇到挑战。许多这类公司很可能会出现大幅重新定价。尤其是当我们看到下一代架构变革开始发生时，时间点大约在2026年下半年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now). The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios) Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names. This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026. We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics: For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle. Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles. However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings). Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value. And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields. A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard. Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
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AEHR因拿下光学收发器大客户而上涨，若进入量产阶段股价或超$60
这不是贪婪，这是基本面。$AEHR价格上涨是因为他们拿下了光学收发器(optical transceivers)领域的领导者。这可能是$AVGO、$LITE、$COHR、$MRVL、$CSCO或其他公司。市场是前瞻性的。以我之见，如果它进入像$AAOI那样的批量订单增长阶段，股价将会超越60美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's not greed, it's fundamentals. $AEHR went up in price is because they landed the leader in optical transcivers. This could be $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR, $MRVL, $CSCO or others. Markets are forward looking. IMO it will blow away $60+ if it shifts into mass order ramp like $AAOI earnings.
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认为 AEHR 未来量产爬坡是核心，当前财务无法体现。
$AEHR 的财报应该会很有意思。 我以前没见过这么多超大规模客户 / 光收发器（可能是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 等）公司去给一家 13 亿美元市值的小公司做资格认证。 我猜也许下一次财报里，我们会看到更多量产爬坡的指引？他们上周才刚开始和那家新的光收发器公司做资格认证。 如果这次财报就发生那当然更好。市场是前瞻的，所以很多重估其实现在就会开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR earnings should be fun. I haven't seen so many hyperscalers/optical transceiver (prob $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and others) companies qualifying a small $1.3B company before. My guess is maybe next earnings, we'll see more volume ramp projections? They just begun qualification with that new optical transceiver company last week. Would be nice if it happened this ER though. Markets are forward looking, so a lot of the repricing would happen around now imo.
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把 CPO / SiPh 测试瓶颈视作大机会，并点名相关公司。
Digitimes：台湾正试图解决 CPO 测试瓶颈，以便 AI 数据中心的 SiPh 规模化。 很大。重点。就在：“CPO 和硅光瓶颈” + “测试”。 $FORM、$KEYS、$ASE 和 $ATEYY 是这个瓶颈里比较热门的名字，比如光学对准。 另外还有 $AEHR，可以提供对 SiPh 良率 / 测试瓶颈的敞口。 预测显示，到 2026 年，超过 50% 的数据中心收发器销售将来自硅光模块（SiPh）。 现在 2026 年，资格认证周期还挺多的： 但量产爬坡随时都可能到来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Digitimes: Taiwan tackles CPO testing bottlenecks to scale SiPh for AI data centers. Huge. Emphasis. on: "CPO and Silicon Photonics bottleneck" + "Testing." $FORM, $KEYS, $ASE, and $ATEYY are popular ones ones in this bottleneck eg. optical alignment. Then there's $AEHR for exposure to SipH yields/testing bottlenecks. Forecasts show that by 2026, over 50% of data center transceiver sales will come from silicon photonics (SiPh) modules. Right now, in 2026, there's quite still a few qualification cycles: But expect mass order ramp to hit anytime.
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强调股票是正和游戏，只有稀释严重时才会伤害长期持有人。
也许你还没意识到，股票和 Melania Coin 不一样，是正和游戏。只要方向判断对了，长期每个人都会受益。 人们买 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI，并不会变成“退出流动性”；随着价值创造和营收增长，价格是会持续上涨的。 公司会创造经济价值，并通过分红之类的方式回馈散户股东。 当然也有例外，比如 $SNAP 或 $IREN，如果管理层试图通过过度 SBC / 稀释来抽干价值，那就会出问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure if you realize yet, but stocks are positive sum gain unlike Melania Coin. Everyone benefits long term if someone is right directionally. It's not exit liquidity when people buy $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI and the prices go up over time because of value creation + revenue growth. Companies create economic value and return that to retail shareholders through things like dividends. There's exceptions with things like $SNAP or $IREN if there's excessive SBC/dilution if management tries to drain value.
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认为太多超大客户在资格认证 AEHR，量产一切就会被重估。
我从没见过一家公司被这么多超大规模客户 / AI 公司同时做资格认证……感觉像是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 之类的，还有更多光学公司，排队名单实在太夸张了。 只要他们一切换到量产订单，这一季或者下一季的 $AEHR 财报大概率都会像火箭一样冲出去。 至于时点，我帮不了你。长期看我觉得它会高很多，短期我不确定。
原推 ↗英文原文
I haven't seen a company get so many hyperscalers/AI companies qualifying it before... think it's $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and more optical companies, so line up is kinda insane. This or next $AEHR earnings will likely hit like a truck once they all switch to volume orders. As for timing, can't help you there. Long term I think it will go much higher, short term not sure.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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感谢别人为自己建基金，但仍强调买入时点很重要。
@bendover 有一个 5 万美元的专门基金围绕我的帖子在运作，这真的太让人受宠若惊了，不过在下单之前还是请先自己做研究！ 而且买入时点也同样非常重要，尤其是我提到像 $AAOI 到 $AEHR 这类名字时。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bendover Very flattering having a $50k dedicated fund around my posts but pls do ur own research before entering any positions first! Also timing the buy is also very important too if I mention anything from $AAOI to $AEHR.
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列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
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明确表示继续看多 AEHR。
@jaimecarralon 是的，我现在是看多 $AEHR 的。 我也借用那个格式顺手拿 $LITE 开了个玩笑，不是那个意思。 不过从这里开始它确实很有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jaimecarralon Yes I’m long on $AEHR. Also used inevitable to poke some fun at others using that format with $LITE, don’t really mean that. But it’s highly compelling long from here
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认为 AEHR 两年上 420 美元并非不可能。
$AEHR 到 420 美元看起来是迟早的事。 也许两年？ 我不觉得我见过这么多超大规模客户或 AI 公司去给一家 11 亿美元的小公司做资格认证。 上一次还是 $AAOI 在 25 美元时，而现在几个月后已经到 104 美元了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$420 looks inevitable on $AEHR. Maybe 2 years? Don’t think I’ve seen so many hyperscalers or AI companies qualifying a small $1.1B company before? Last time was $AAOI back at $25 and now it’s $104 a few months later. https://t.co/PaYZoCmMNl
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认为 AEHR 三年内有望 10 倍。
@Ud197601 $AEHR 看起来三年内能涨 10 倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ud197601 $AEHR looks like a 10x in 3 years.
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表示 AEHR 在测试领域现在是高确定性标的。
@TD_btc24 是的，$AEHR 现在在测试领域里是高确定性的标的。那里面有很大潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TD_btc24 Yeah $AEHR is high conviction now in the test space. Tons of potential there
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同意供应链视角很重要，自己更偏好小市值的 AEHR。
@KawzInvests 这份供应链总览做得不错！是的，$VIAV、$AEHR 都很好。 我个人只是更喜欢像 Aehr 这种更小市值的名字，因为这意味着上行空间更大，但 beta 也更高，因为它还没那么被验证。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KawzInvests Nice high level overview on the supply chain! Yeah $VIAV $AEHR are all great. I just personally like the smaller MC names like Aehr, since it implies higher upside, but higher beta since it's less proven.
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认为 AEHR 132% 的回报证明自己够早，量产信号会进一步验证。
$AEHR 的回报不错，说明极早布局是有回报的，132% 的收益就是证明。 现在有很多超大规模客户 / 光收发器客户在为下一轮超级周期给 Aehr 做资格认证，而且 3 天前来的新 SiPh 客户也是非常积极的消息。 我觉得很快就会看到这些信号如何转化成量产订单。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nice return on $AEHR, pays dividends to be extremely early with that 132% return. Lot of hyperscalers / optical transceiver customers for the next supercycle are qualifying Aehr right now, and the new siph customer 3 days ago is extremely positive news. And I think we'll get insight how that translates to volume orders soon enough.
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认为 AEHR 在小市值下被低估，正被多家超大客户做资格认证。
$AEHR 在大约 11 亿美元市值下看起来极有吸引力。 Aehr 开始让我想起早期的 $TER，又有点像财报前的 $AAOI。 如果把时间线和猜测客户列出来： 2 月 11 日：Sonoma 为超大客户的 AI ASIC 处理器拿到生产胜利。（大概率是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$META） - 可能是谷歌？Aehr 收购了 Incal，而 Incal 曾被猜测会被谷歌用于 TPU。 2 月 26 日：来自 AI 主力客户的 1400 万美元。（大概率是 $AMD、$NVDA） - 这里更像是 $AMD，用于 Instinct MI300/MI400。 3 月 3 日：一台 FOX-XP 系统对应的主硅光客户。（大概率是 $INTC siph） - 很可能 $INTC 就是他们的主客户。 3 月 31 日：来自一家新的大型硅光客户的首单。（大概率是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$CSCO） - 新客户（排除了 Intel），大概是这些正转向 800G/1.6T 硅光收发器的公司之一。 （这些都属于非常保密的 BOM 级推测） 不管怎样，这条时间线对 $AEHR 来说就是在不断加码。 也许就是下一次财报。也可能再过两季。 但感觉量产订单只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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AEHR获光收发器厂商认证订单，处于类似AAOI早期阶段，面临量产拐点。
$AEHR 从一家领先的光收发器(optical transceiver)公司获得了资格认证订单。 它正处于早期阶段，类似于 $AAOI 正在被主要超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)供应链测试用于光收发器/硅光子学(silicon photonics)阶段。 在可能随时到来的大批量量产拐点(mass volume inflection point)之前。 $AEHR 盘前上涨 12.73%。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR new qualification orders from a leading optical transicever company. It’s in the early $AAOI stage where it’s getting tested by major hyperscaler supply chains for optical transceivers/silicon photonics. Before the mass volume inflection point that may be at any time. $AEHR up 12.73% premarket.
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把 AEHR、TSEM、AAOI 分别对应测试、代工和激光供应链。
@mi20483980476 所以这三者其实分属三个不同类别（当然有重叠），我都喜欢。 $AEHR 做测试。 $TSEM 更像是晶圆代工。 $AAOI 则更像是激光 fab -> 设计 -> 组装。 这就是一条供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mi20483980476 So they all sit in three separate categories (with some overlap) and I like all three. $AEHR does testing. $TSEM is more like a foundry then $AAOI is more like laser fab -> design -> assembly It's a supply chain.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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认为 AEHR 可能即将迎来拐点，AMKR 还要等，FORM 也是今年的关注点。
@GoldenMeth 我认为 $AEHR 在这里是个不错的长仓，接下来几个月里很可能像 $AAOI 一样迎来拐点。 $AMKR 我会等到明年，因为它们还在 CapEx 阶段，产能大概到 2027 年底或 2028 年才真正上线，如果我没记错的话。 $FORM 也是我今年比较关注的一个。
原推 ↗英文原文
@GoldenMeth IMO $AEHR is a great long here and should hit its inflection point in the next few months like $AAOI. $AMKR better to wait next year since they’re in capex phase and their buildout comes online late 2027 or 2028 if I remember correctly. $FORM was a fan this yr
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认为还有很多好机会，SMCI、AAOI、AEHR 等都不错。
@DegnFarmer 哦我在看。市场上现在还有很多不错的机会，比如 $SMCI 18.5 美元、$AAOI 86 美元、$AEHR 等等。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DegnFarmer Oh I am. There's a ton of good opportunities ON, $SMCI at $18.5, $AAOI at $86, $AEHR, etc.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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说 AEHR 是自己最喜欢的多头标的之一。
@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR 是我最喜欢的多头标的之一。不幸的是，对方只让我选五只。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR is one of my favorite longs. Unfortunately the question asked me to pick 5 only
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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认为光子 TAM 太大，完全可以做一个相关 ETF，但自己更喜欢直接持有个股。
很高兴听到！是啊，光子对 AI 的 TAM 实在太大了，所以会出现很多不同名字。 你当然可以把 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR 以及另外 20 多家公司做成一个 ETF，然后坐等。 不过……我个人更喜欢自己挑赢家。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear! Yeah, there's so many different names since photonics TAM for AI is massive. You can definitely make an ETF of stuff like $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR, and the 20+ other companies. Then probably sit back and chill. But... I personally like to try and pick a few of the highest upside winners personally.
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给出自己在这批光子名字里的偏好组合，并列出当前周期最喜欢的标的。
@GOATTRADER5184 所以我自己从这堆里挑出来的标的有： $SIVE、$TSEM、$AEHR、$SOI。 我喜欢尽量挑赢家。至于当前周期，我更喜欢的是： $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE
原推 ↗英文原文
@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were: $SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI. I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's: $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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看好 AEHR 接近触发 hyperscaler 需求拐点。
@soup19152116 我已经覆盖过 $AEHR 了，而且我现在是多头，因为我觉得他们快接近 $AAOI 那种超大规模云需求拐点了。 过去两三个月里有不同的订单流，我觉得挺有希望。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soup19152116 I've covered $AEHR already and I'm long since I do think they be close to hitting their $AAOI-type hyperscaler demand inflection point. There were streams of different orders past two to three months, think it's promising.
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开心看到别人做成了自己帖子里的小型组合
@workoutwithp @tech_signals 很高兴看到你把我提过的那些名字做成了一个小型 ETF！ 也很酷，里面 60% 都是我提过的名字，从 $NBIS 到 $AEHR，除了那几只随机生物科技。 很高兴这套组合有效，61% 的回报真的很厉害。
原推 ↗英文原文
@workoutwithp @tech_signals It’s fun to see that mini ETF of the names I’ve mentioned! Cool to see that 60% are names I’ve talked about from $NBIS to $AEHR, aside from the random biotech. Glad it’s working out for you, 61% return is amazing.
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博主表示针对该板块做多AEHR。
@thephillydegen 我针对这一板块做多(做多)了 $AEHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
@thephillydegen I went long on $AEHR for this segment
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分析$POET因$MRVL CPO业务受益逻辑，认为当前估值具备长期风险回报优势。
$MRVL 发布了财报。从电话会议纪要来看： 目标是通过 Celestial 共封装光学(CPO) 收入，在 2028 年实现 5 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，2029 年达到 10 亿美元 ARR。 $POET 作为备受散户喜爱的 10 亿美元市值中介层(interposer)股票，是此次产能爬坡（Starlight 光源）的主要受益者。 通常，收入加上库存积压会在制造和发货前约 1200 万至 1800 万美元时开始显现。 -> 大部分订单流可能会在 2027 年下半年开始涌入。 对于物料清单(BOM) 成本，估计占比约为 10-15%（推测）。因此，仅 Celestial 项目可能在 2027 年带来约 5000 万至 7500 万美元收入，2028 年营收可能达到 1 亿至 1.5 亿美元。 最大的风险是客户集中度，如果 $MRVL 想要对其光引擎进行双源采购(dual-source)。 但 $POET 和 Celestial 花了数年时间共同开发这种特定的集成方案，因此现在寻找替代方案很可能会推迟 Marvell 2028 年的商业化时间表。 而且 $POET 的上行空间在于它总能找到更多客户。 鉴于 $POET 近期稀释后依然稳健的现金资产负债表，以及热门行业较高的市销率(P/S) 倍数： 随着人们提前布局 2027 年下半年的收入，可能在 2026 年底看到估值重估(re-rating)。 我认为很多散户通常很擅长发现像 $RKLB 这样的“登月”级标的，但很多时候他们入场太早。我的观点是 $POET 也是如此。 搭乘那些刚刚触及拐点(如 $AAOI 或 $AEHR) 的股票上涨要容易得多。 但无论如何： 在 6.64 美元的价格下，风险/回报比看起来很有吸引力，尤其是拥有通往超大规模云服务商的 Celestial 后门，前提是投资者有耐心等待一年。 我在查看盈利预测时想到了 $POET。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MRVL released earnings. From transcript: Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue. $POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source). Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment -> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027. For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028. Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines. But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines. And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too. Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry: Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue. I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET. It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR. But regardless: Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year. Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
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建议持有$AEHR股票加融资，避免高IV的LEAPS期权。
@demarscrypto 如果你想要杠杆，就坚持持有股票并配合少量融资，$AEHR 的 LEAPS（长期期权）隐含波动率(IV)实在太高了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto Just stick with shares and slight margin if you want leverage, IV for $AEHR leaps are way too high.
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$AEHR获连续订单，有望迎来从投机小盘股到量产重估的拐点。
感觉 $AEHR（12亿美元市值）正接近从投机性小盘股向大规模订单增长的拐点。就在上周，他们又收到了一笔1400万美元的订单。今天，他们的硅光子学(silicon photonics)客户又追加了一笔后续订单。一旦他们的客户/超大规模数据中心(hyperscalers)转向“大规模量产”和“批量生产”，很可能会触发 $AEHR 的巨大重估周期。鉴于今年每周都有订单新闻，这种情况发生的可能性似乎更大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like $AEHR ($1.2B) is close to hitting its inflection point from a speculative small cap to mass order ramp. Just last week they received another $14M order. And today another follow-up order from their silicon photonics customer. Once their customers/hyperscalers transition to “high-volume manufacturing" and "volume production”, would likely trigger a massive rerating cycle for $AEHR. Feels more likely for it to happen than not given the weekly news of orders this year.
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建议在AEHR和AAOI之间采取多元化配置策略。
@B38B37 如果你在 $AEHR 和 $AAOI 之间做选择，我是多元化(Diversification)的拥趸。多多益善。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 I’m a fan of diversification if you’re choosing between $AEHR and $AAOI. The more the merrier.
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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解析散热瓶颈及$AEHR通过高温压力测试提升良率的逻辑。
其中的细微差别在于有两点。一是散热管理瓶颈（液冷、铜线寿命延长等）。 $AEHR 处于半导体良率的制造环节。利用热量进行压力测试，以发现可能导致早期失效的潜在缺陷单元。 由于芯片在极端高温下运行，导致早期寿命失效的缺陷风险很高。因此，他们需要在极端高温下测试每一颗芯片。
原推 ↗英文原文
So the nuance is that there's two. One is thermal management bottlenecks (liquid cooling, copper life extension, etc). $AEHR sits in the manufacturing side for semi yield. Heat is used to stress test to see potential defective units for early failure. Since chips run at extreme temperatures, a defect causing early life failure is high. So they need to test every chip at extreme heat.
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博主解释简化 $AEHR 术语科普的原因，并认同其规模化潜力。
谢谢！我经常看到关于 $AEHR 的问题。尤其是因为像“Fox-XP”或“碳化硅和氮化镓功率半导体”这样的术语。我觉得大多数 X 用户会觉得很难理解，所以想让它对读者来说更容易消化。同意它在未来几年有规模化潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate it! I kept seeing a questions pop up around $AEHR. Especially because of jargon like "Fox-XP" or "silicon carbide and gallium nitride power semiconductors". Felt like majority of X would have a hard time, so wanted to make it more digestible for readers. Agreed that it has potential for scale over the few years.
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点评AEHR获AI量产订单及NVDA引发的市场波动。
我并没有交易它，但它的波动性确实很大。考虑到 $NVDA 引发了全面的抛售，你的入场时机把握得很好。至于 $AEHR，他们终于度过了 $POET 的研发阶段，今年开始获得超大规模云服务商/AI 公司的量产订单。所以想简单写一下关于它的分析。
原推 ↗英文原文
I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board. As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year. So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.
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解析$AEHR作为AI芯片热测试瓶颈解决者，正从研发转向量产，受益于巨头资本开支周期。
更简明的 $AEHR 概览 - 11 亿美元（无行话）。这是我的一个多头持仓： 在 AI 领域，散热是一个已知的瓶颈。 随着新一代 $NVDA 或 $AMD 类型的芯片发热量增加，如果一颗芯片熔毁，将是灾难性的。 因此科技巨头 -> 对每一颗芯片进行热应力测试，以查看其是否会在现场过早失效。 $AEHR 出售用于测试这些芯片的机器。 去年，他们类似于 $POET（处于预认证/测试阶段） -> 但现在他们已经通过了认证。 我们正看到从研发到大规模生产的拐点： 今天： -> $AEHR 获得 1400 万美元的芯片老化系统（wafer level）订单，以帮助扩大芯片生产。 但这台 1400 万美元的机器每周只能处理有限数量的晶圆。 -> 随着该 AI 客户扩大规模，他们将物理上耗尽热测试吞吐量。 因此，如果他们喜欢 $AEHR，就会购买更多，从而推动收入增长。 他们还有一个独立的产品线（Sonoma），用于测试封装后的芯片。 超大规模云服务商一直在订购此产品，因此有两个不同的测试阶段，两条收入来源。 管理层指引 2026 年下半年新增订单为 6000 万至 8000 万美元（这是巨大的增长）。 你可以参考 $TER（510 亿美元）或爱德万测试（约 1250 亿美元）来看看这类公司能有多大。 他们还在其他数据中心层进行测试： - 他们正在与 NAND Flash 内存供应商合作 - 硅光子学 我尽量去除了大部分技术行话，以便大多数人更容易理解，但这确实是一个微妙/技术性的领域。 $AEHR 具有潜力，因为它在多年的研发和认证后，现在开始实现真实规模的量产。 我们正处于一个巨大的资本支出周期中（想想 $ASML 的周期，人们为建设订购大量机器）。
原推 ↗英文原文
A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions: With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck. With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot, if one chip melts down, it's a disaster. So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field. $AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips. Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase) -> but now they've passed. We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production: Today: -> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level) But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week. -> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput. so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue. They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged. Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams. Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth). You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get. They also do testing across other data center layers too: - So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers - Silicon photonics Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field. $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification. And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).
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感谢粉丝并提及共同关注的光电子股近期表现优异。
@PhotonCap 谢谢！希望你一切都好。我记得我们在一些光电子(CPO)概念股上有着共同的兴趣，比如 $LITE 和 $AEHR，这些股票最近表现非常出色。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Thank you! Hope you’re doing well yourself i remember we had some shared interest like $LITE, $AEHR to photonic names that have performed really well recently
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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A开头半导体股因订单与瓶颈大涨，暗示供应链瓶颈改善。
哇…… $AEHR 今日因超大规模云服务商订单上涨30%+。 $ACMR 本周因中国存储（长鑫存储+长江存储）上涨29%。 $AXTI 本周因光子学(CPO)产能爬坡及谷歌资本支出上涨42%。 $AMKR 本周因先进封装瓶颈上涨19%。 也许以字母A开头的瓶颈是个好兆头？
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… $AEHR up 30%+ today on hyperscaler orders. $ACMR up 29% this week on China memory (cmxt + ymtc) $AXTI up 42% this week on photonics ramp and Google capex spend $AMKR up 19% this week w/ advanced packaging bottlenecks. Maybe the bottlenecks starting with letter A are a good sign?
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建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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做多AEHR博弈存储与光子机会，MRVL因客户ASIC延期推迟至下半年建仓。
我目前做多 $AEHR，以防三大存储巨头将其用于 HBM DRAM 裸片老化测试，或超大规模云厂商扩大 Sonoma 的使用。此外，硅光子学也是另一个关注领域。因此，这更像是一个投机性的“登月”选择，旨在观察其能否与 Advantest 和 $TER 竞争。至于 $MRVL，我喜欢它，但我认为更适合等到 2026 年下半年再建仓。有报道称 $MSFT Maia 路线图延迟了约半年，而 Marvell 预期的收入增长很大一部分依赖于该超大规模云厂商的特定 ASIC 项目。因此，我将在今年晚些时候重新评估它。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm actually long $AEHR right now in the event any of the big three memory companies use them for HBM DRAM die burn in or hyperscalers expands Sonoma usage. Then there's silicon photonics, which is another area of interest. So it's more of a speculative moonshot pick to see if it can compete with Advantest and $TER. As for $MRVL, I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long. There were reports $MSFT Maia faced roadmap longer delays by like half a year and a large part of marvell's expected revenue growth is tethered to this specific hyperscaler ASIC program. So I'll revisit it later on in the year.
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.
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看好AEHR作为HBM4等关键技术的收费亭角色。
@PhotonCap 同意！我特别喜欢 $AEHR，尤其是因为它是许多领域（如 HBM4、碳化硅(SiC)晶圆、光子学等）的“收费亭”。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Agreed! I really like $AEHR especially, since they're a toll booth for a lot of things like hbm4, SiC wafers, photonics, etc
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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AEHR具登月潜力，Sonoma订单或关联MU HBM4，但尚无确凿证据。
@Lotharinvest 我了解 $AEHR，正如你所说，它具有“登月式”（moonshot）的结构（例如，最近 550 万美元的 Sonoma 订单与 $MU HBM4 16-high 资格认证阶段相符）。目前尚无确凿的关联证据。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Lotharinvest I’m aware of $AEHR, it has the structure of a moonshot (eg. $5.5M Sonoma order recently in line with $MU HBM4 16-hi qualification phase) as you mentioned. No confirmed links yet.
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梳理机器人供应链瓶颈，看好TKR、SYSS等美国本土替代标的。
波士顿动力/Optimus/机器人供应链摘要(TLDR)： - $ALGM ($65亿) 电机/传感 (Optimus) - $NOVT ($47亿) 反馈 (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($65亿) 电源 (Atlas) - $OUST ($16.4亿) 激光雷达(LiDAR) (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($27亿) - 芯片 (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($8.12亿) - 碳化硅(SiC)测试 (t2) - $RRX ($105亿) - 关节 (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($65.3亿) - 谐波应变 (t2) - $MP ($118.2亿) - 钕镨磁铁 (t3) - $LSCC ($116亿) - 传感器融合FPGA (t3) 我个人的持仓： - $SYSS ($9.98亿) - 骨架 (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($7.01亿) - 视觉 (T2) 在OpenAI昨日推进机器人业务后，我研究了这些公司，并想以摘要格式分享发现。 再次强调，机器人原始设备制造商(OEM)通常不公布物料清单(BOM)，因此大多数已确认，部分未确认但通过交叉引用公开资料极可能属实。 但我们应看到机器人行业在2026-2027年迎来拐点。 思考： - 哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive Systems, 6324.T)。我此前将其视为领导者，但他们刚被中国Leaderdrive以40%更低成本复制技术所颠覆。 - 基于此，$TKR (美国)可能是最具“超额收益(alpha)”的标的，因为通过收购Cone Drive，他们成为相对于哈默纳科/Leaderdrive的主要美国谐波齿轮供应商。 - $AMBA和$VICR可能是我在美国供应链中发现的除$SYSS外最有趣的标的。 - 我选择$SYSS作为机器人瓶颈敞口的首选，因为他们是每个量产人形机器人的骨架/材料（例如已知用户包括波士顿动力Atlas），且拥有有效的美国认证垄断地位。 - $LPTH碰巧也是机器人瓶颈敞口，因为我购买它也是出于对国防部/军事瓶颈敞口的考虑。 这些只是美国大规模量产中“雷达下”的标的。除了两个持仓外，我不持有其他任何标的，但我仍在研究它们。 不幸的是，许多供应链如$TSLA的执行器（与三花智控的6.85亿美元订单）仍在中国。但我预计许多将回流美国，因此仍在寻找供应链BOM方面的超额收益。 如果我遗漏了任何标的，欢迎补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Boston Dynamics/Optimus/Robotic supply chains TLDR: - $ALGM ($6.5B) motor/sensing (Optimus) - $NOVT ($4.7B) feedback (Atlas, Figure) - $VICR ($6.5B) power (Atlas) - $OUST ($1.64B) LiDAR (Spot, Atlas) - $AMBA ($2.7B) - Chips (Atlas, Figure) - $AEHR ($812m) - SiC Test (t2) - $RRX ($10.5B) - Joints (Agility, Apollo) - $TKR ($6.53B) - Harmonic Strain (t2) - $MP ($11.82B) - NdPr magnets (t3) - $LSCC ($11.6B) - Sensor Fusion FPGAs (t3) I'm personally in: - $SYSS ($998M) - Skeleton (Optimus, Atlas, Figure) - $LPTH ($701M) - Vision (T2) Was researching these companies after OpenAI's push into robotics yesterday and wanted to do a TLDR format of findings. Again, robotics OEMs generally don't publish BOMs, so most of these are confirmed but some are unconfirmed but very likely from cross-referencing public findings. But we should see an inflection point for robotics going into 2026-2027. Thoughts: - Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T). Was tracking this as the leader but they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost. - Based on this, $TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing vs. Harmonic Drive / Leaderdrive. - $AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains. - I picked $SYSS as my choice for robotics bottleneck exposure since they're the skeletons/materials for each humanoid on scale up (eg. with Boston Dynamics Atlas as known users) and effective US certification monopoly. - $LPTH happened to be a coincidental Robotics bottleneck exposure since I bought this for DoD/military bottleneck exposure too . These are just the "under the radar ones" in the US for the mass production scale-up. Don't own any of them aside from two, but I'm still looking into them. Unfortunately many supply chains like $TSLA's actuators ($685M order with Sanhua) are still in China. But I expect many of them to flow back to the US, so still looking for alpha in terms of supply chain BOM. If I missed any feel free to mention others.