$AEHR
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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AI板块无差别大跌，高贝塔股波动剧烈，反弹亦具高波动性。
@blkslymn 我不确定你是否注意到，目前整个AI板块正在无差别下跌。像三星这样市值1万亿美元的公司本月下跌了26%。$MRVL 下跌了31%。因此，高贝塔值（High Beta）的标的往往波动更大，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 下跌了50%。但随后的反弹往往也更具波动性，例如 $AEHR 在财报（ER）后单日上涨50%。
英文原文
@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
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AEHR暗示硅光子学扩产，若明确CPO则Msscorps受益。
@JJJJJ_66666 情况很微妙，$AEHR 的暗示更多是指向更广泛的硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)相关产能爬坡。这可能包括 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块，或共封装光学(CPO)。如果他们直接点名 CPO，Msscorps 将是一个非常清晰的受益标的。它最近因延迟说法遭受重创（即使...
英文原文
@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even
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博主术后无法收听AEHR财报电话会。
@RiversSmith3 兄弟，我刚做完手术出来，不幸的是，我没法在血流不止的时候听 $AEHR 的财报电话会，谢了。
英文原文
@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.
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$AEHR 财报后大涨，2027 年指引强劲，积压订单充裕。
$AEHR 今天财报后大涨 +36.4%！ 2027 年指引：$1.3 亿-$1.5 亿（较 2026 年营收增长 160-200%）。认为有进一步上调指引的空间（假设无内存收入，或来自新基准测试 AI 客户的收入极少）。 Q4 订单：$6070 万，有效积压订单为 $1.006 亿。 - 领先的 AI https://t.co/1zG0VMTM57
英文原文
$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI https://t.co/1zG0VMTM57
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彭博旧闻引发半导体板块大跌，多只个股跌幅超10%。
看到半导体市场因彭博社报道再次被框架化解读而崩盘，总是很有趣。瑞银分析师在关于 $META 的报告中称：“这并非新消息”。无论如何：$AEHR 下跌 -18.3%；$AAOI 下跌 -17.13%；$SIVEF 下跌 -15.4%；$SNDK 下跌 -14.8%；$TER 下跌 -13.8%；$GLW 下跌 -11.4%；$MRVL 下跌 -11.2%。
英文原文
Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% https://t.co/itWeWj5waE
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LPK 玻璃基板设备具垄断优势，预计量产爬坡后市值可达 30-50 亿。
关于 $LPK：如果让我猜，当它们全面量产爬坡时，市值达到 30 亿至 50 亿美元似乎是合理的。 对我来说，这感觉更具非对称性，因为这只是一个等待游戏，而且它们已经拥有玻璃基板的客户。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常受限于总可寻址市场 (TAM)，除非你是 ASML 或像 KLAC 那样拥有多个瓶颈，否则很难达到 200 亿美元以上。 在全面量产爬坡前夕，很少有像这样占主导地位的“垄断者”： 也许你有类似： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩键合) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存处理器/立方探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但处于量产前阶段。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子分子束外延)，非常早期的量产前阶段 ~3.5 亿美元 然后是 LPK 激光用于玻璃核心基板（即将量产），市值约 7.3 亿美元，从主题上讲应该比内存享有更多溢价。（例如，主要先进封装转变，CPO 相关等）。 我知道很多晦涩的化学垄断者，但由于其物料清单 (BOM) 远低于设备，因此没有受到太多关注。 但对于 LPK 你有： 例如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户选择了 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃核心量产中，LIDE 市场份额目标为 70%，应该非常重要。（披露：持有，上述列出的名称中除了 Techwing/Aixtron 外，NFI）。 这只是如果你跟随 $AEHR 在约 35 亿美元时的路径： - <5 亿美元：“哦，他们没有客户！” --->（可能在这里的中间某处）。 - <15 亿美元：“也许很快就会有量！” - 30 亿美元及以上：“看起来他们开始全面量产爬坡了。” 这只是我个人经验中关于瓶颈设备供应商周期的一课。
英文原文
As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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AEHR获硅光子客户后续订单，股价两月内从30涨至116美元。
$AEHR 收到主要硅光子(Silicon Photoning)客户关于晶圆级老化(wafer level burn in)系统的后续生产订单。 今日股价上涨 11.29% 至 $116。 就在两个月前它还只有 30 多美元，真是好时光。
英文原文
$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times.
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汇总粉丝提出的800V直流供电相关标的清单。
好了，大家，这是你们最喜欢的 800V 直流供电(800V DC)相关想法汇总清单。 1. $IFNNY - 1158亿美元 2. $ON - 462亿美元 3. Lite-On(2301) - 160.3亿美元 4. 6504.T - 141亿美元 5. $VICR - 128亿美元 6. $LFUS - 115.7亿美元 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - 83.4亿美元 8. $VSH - 78.6亿美元 9. $ENPH - 73.6亿美元 10. $NVTS - 57.7亿美元 11. $POWI - 43.0亿美元 12. $BDC - 41.8亿美元 13. $EOSE - 38.6亿美元 14. $SEDG - 38.2亿美元 15. $AEHR - 31亿美元 16. 6890.T - 26.6亿美元 17. $WOLF - 21.6亿美元 18. $CWR.L - 17.5亿美元 19. $AMSC - 16.8亿美元 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - 16.8亿美元 21. $XFAB - 15.4亿美元 22. $AOSL - 12.5亿美元 23. $HYLN - 12.3亿美元 24. $FCEL - 8.35亿美元 25. $IQE.L - 7.80亿美元 26. $ASYS - 2.76亿美元 27. $RELL - 2.39亿美元 28. 6844.T - 2.22亿美元 29. 4973.T - 2.07亿美元 30. $PAY.BR - 1.89亿美元 31. 6616.T - 1.86亿美元 32. 6882.T - 1.24亿美元 33. $IPWR - 9600万美元 我也把你们提到的一些相邻标的放了进去，比如 $FCEL 或 $EOSE，虽然我不确定它们的敞口是否真的很好。像有人提到的 $POET 这种明显不太相关的，我就忽略了。 评论大概有500条，但我猜 X 限制了我能看到的内容。 我们拭目以待，看看你们最高信念的想法表现如何。
英文原文
Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
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AEHR市值约35亿美元，等待LPK等玩家批量订单。
$AEHR 的好日子来了，现在市值约35亿美元。 我最近没怎么提它，因为没有太多新东西。 只是等待 $LPK 以及其他这类玩家的批量订单。
英文原文
Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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对比NBIS、AEHR和IREN走势，强调IREN表现较差。
回复 @ryansfinance：我觉得你忘了 $NBIS 从90美元 -> 235美元 -> 180美元。 $AEHR 从25美元 -> 110美元 -> 77美元。 而 $IREN 从45美元 -> 70美元 -> 45美元。
英文原文
@ryansfinance Think you’re forgetting $NBIS went from $90 -> $235 -> $180. $AEHR went from $25 -> $110 -> $77 While $IREN went from $45 -> $70 -> $45
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
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AEHR 一个月快涨 3 倍，说明节奏把得很准
顺便说一句，$AEHR 已经在 1 个月里接近涨了 3 倍。 我好像确实很擅长抓时间点？？ https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
英文原文
$AEHR is up close to 3x in 1 month by the way. I tend to get timing extremely well?? https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
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强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
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LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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AEHR 3 倍上涨后仍在等待量产信号
@tnglxn4 $AEHR 不是已经在我点出之后涨了 3 倍吗？ 股价本来就不会直线上涨。 我现在在等量产爬坡的新闻。
英文原文
@tnglxn4 $AEHR just went up 3x after I called it? Things don’t move in a straight line. Waiting for volume ramp news.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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AEHR 还很早，近端已计价
@workoutwithp 从长期看 $AEHR 还非常早。他们才刚在一个客户身上开始量产爬坡…… 而其他客户（比如他们那个一线光收发器客户）会在未来几年陆续补上。 以当前估值来看，我会说近端已经计价得比较充分了。
英文原文
@workoutwithp $AEHR long term is very early. The only started volume ramp with one customer… And others will pick up (like their t1 optical transceiver one) over the next few years. For current valuations, I’d say it’s more priced in near term.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).