$LPKFF
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解读 LPKF 财报要看量产信号
关于 LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> 财报的一些看法： 这很微妙，下面是市场可能漏掉的点： 如果你把财务数据孤立出来看，又不理解认证周期，那看起来就很糟。 财报电话会上关于量产爬坡的信号才是真正重要的。 1. “先进封装领域的潜在量产订单没有计入当前的基准指引” 任何在下半年落地的量产设备订单，都会立刻对他们的预期形成上行惊喜。（正面） 2. “LIDE 目前已在众多半导体客户的测试和研发环境中使用；预期后续订单……” 这确认了我们预期的情况，很多半导体公司都在对 $LPK 做认证。（正面） 3. “今年预计会有首批生产订单” 这意味着 2026 年下半年会确认量产爬坡拐点，这可能是市场漏掉的最大信号，而且这些内容没有计入任何预测。（非常正面） 从之前的采访里，我们还能拼出： 问：2027 年是否仍是玻璃基板进入大规模生产的起点？这个时间表还成立吗？ “是的。市场参与者正在为生产设备下单，第一季度已经录得初始订单。虽然挑战仍在，但我依然预计 2027 年会标志着大规模生产的开始。” 2027 年是玻璃核心基板的大规模生产，但 2026 年下半年才是 $LPK 量产订单的起点，而且**这些并不在任何预测里**。 财报已经确认了这些时间线。 基本上： -> 你不会在财务预测里看到和玻璃核心基板量产爬坡有关的任何内容，而这恰恰是美国投资者最关心的。 -> 单看财报，客观上很差，但如果你是按过去 12 个月而不是未来增长来建模，那才会这么看。 -> 已确认下半年开始爬坡。玻璃核心基板 2027 年进入量产。 如果有什么的话，这对玻璃核心基板量产爬坡的核心逻辑其实非常正面。 关键还是要看订单有多少。
英文原文
Thoughts on LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> earnings: Very nuanced, here's what markets might have missed: If you look at the financials in isolation and don't understand qualification cycles, it's bad. The earnings call for volume ramp indicators are what's actually important. 1. "Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance" Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise to their projections. (positive) 2. "LIDE is currently in use by numerous semiconductor customers in test and R&D environments; the expected follow-up orders..." Confirmation of what we expected, with many semiconductor companies qualifying $LPK. (positive) 3. "First production orders expected this year" Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026, this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that. (very positive) From previous interviews we can stitch together: Q: 2027 as the start of mass production for glass substrates. Does this timeline still hold? "Yes. Market players are preparing orders for production equipment, and initial orders have already been recorded in the first quarter. While challenges remain, I still expect 2027 to mark the beginning of mass production." 2027 is mass production of glass core substrates, but H2 2026 is start of mass production orders for $LPK, **which is not included in any forecasts**. We got confirmation of timelines from earnings. Basically: -> You won't see any projections/financials around glass core substrate related VOLUME RAMP which is the only thing American investors care about with this company. -> Earnings in isolation were objectively terrible, but you only care about this as a European if you model based on previous 12 months only (instead of future growth). -> Confirmation of volume ramp starting H2. Glass Core substrate mass production 2027. If anything, this was extremely positive for the core thesis about volume ramp for glass core substrates. We'll see how much the orders are though.
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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发布西方供应链瓶颈小盘股清单，警示瓶颈不等于好投资。
@__EthanHunt__ 我在潜在瓶颈列表中列出了 $WOLF，这家公司确实很有趣。但“瓶颈”和“好投资”之间是有区别的。我觉得我做的尽职调查(DD)不能白费，所以干脆把它发出来了。 https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
英文原文
@__EthanHunt__ I listed $WOLF in my list of potential bottlenecks, and the company genuinely is interesting. But there's a difference between "bottleneck" and good investment. Felt my the DD I did would go to waste, so ended up just posting it. https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
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通过信息发现寻找供应链瓶颈，多数标的因基本面差而落空。
@Ren_aramb 同意，这基本上就是一场淘金热。但我们是通过信息发现来寻找未来的瓶颈环节。找到正确的那个就等于发现了黄金（也许 $LPKFF 是那个知道的人）。我假设大多数人最终会空手而归，因为他们的很多基本面都很糟糕。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Agreed, this is basically the gold rush. But instead we’re hunting for future bottlenecks with information discovery. Finding the right one would be discovering gold (maybe $LPKFF is the one who knows). I’d assume most end up empty since a lot of their fundamentals are bad.
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分析WOLF、LPKFF等AI供应链瓶颈股的投资潜力与稳定性。
$WOLF 在重组后可能是上面最有趣的一个。 $LPKFF 也涉及玻璃基板，且拥有激光诱导深蚀刻技术，市值仅 $1.69 亿，因此可能具有最具爆发力的 10 倍上行空间。 $MTRN 可能是上面最稳定的一个，鉴于其拥有约占全球 65% 的铍（Beryllium）储量，上行空间相当可观。 还有其他几只，但要么基本面真的很差，要么其瓶颈环节过于小众。 例如 $LPTH 的瓶颈横跨国防、AI、无人机等多个领域。 $AXTI 的瓶颈规模很大，而 AI 本身就是一个巨大的板块，因此不需要分散（尽管磷化铟(InP)也用于许多其他领域)。
英文原文
$WOLF was probably the most interesting one up there after restructuring. $LPKFF also for glass substrates and they own the laser induced deep etching at a $169m MC, so possibly most explosive 10x upside. $MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decently high upside given it owns the mountain for ~65% of the world's Beryllium. There were a few others but just the fundamentals were either really bad or their bottleneck was too niche. $LPTH's bottleneck for example spreads across both defense, AI, drones, etc. $AXTI's bottleneck was so big and AI is such a big sector so it doesn't need to be spread across (but InP is used in a lot of other sectors too).
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梳理西方供应链瓶颈小盘股，警示基本面风险，看好部分标的5倍潜力。
个人研究摘要。 西方供应链瓶颈如 $LPTH 和 $AXTI： $MTRN - 铍（Spor Mountain） $HALEU - 铀 | 小型模块化反应堆(SMRs) $ESE - 太空燃料箱（通过 Vacco） $GHM - 真空喷射器与表面冷凝器 | 美国海军 $FEIM - 原子钟 $OPXS - 光激光潜望镜 $TAYD - 振动 $PKE - 热 $VNP.TO - 西方镓 $TDY - 抗辐射图像传感器 $RDW - 展开式太阳能电池阵列 $PDFS - 英特尔 18A 的 Exensio 良率 $WOLF - 碳化硅 $RELL - 超级电容器与磁控管 $CPSH - 热管理/铝碳化硅 $VREX - X 射线管 $GSM - 西方金属硅 $INTT - 极端热循环 $CODA - 浊度（浑浊） $NTI - 腐蚀 $PLAB - 光掩模 $MKSI - 等离子体控制 $KULR - 爆炸性热量 $PESI - 放射性混合废物。 $CVV - 气相沉积成固。 $LPKFF - 激光诱导深刻蚀/玻璃基板 这些只是我研究的更多“低调”小盘股 -> 最终选择了 $AXTI 和 $LPTH，如果有人感兴趣的话。 其中许多尽管至关重要，但基本面很差，例如：$IQE（已广为人知），所以盲目买入瓶颈股并不是个好主意。 还有更多我尚未完成研究的（因此未列入），要找出那些尚未被定价的标的要难得多。 但如果其中许多在未来一年上涨 5 倍，我也不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
Personal TLDR research. Western supply chain bottlenecks like $LPTH and $AXTI: $MTRN - Beryllium (Spor Mountain) $HALEU - Uranium | SMRs $ESE - Space fuel tanks (through Vacco) $GHM - Vacuum Ejectors & Surface Condensers | U.S. Navy $FEIM - Atomic Clocks $OPXS - Light Laser Periscopes $TAYD - Vibration $PKE - Heat $VNP.TO - Western gallium $TDY - Rad-Hard Image Sensors $RDW - Roll-Out Solar Arrays $PDFS - Exensio Yield for Intel 18A $WOLF - Silicon Carbide $RELL - Ultracapacitors & Magnetrons $CPSH - Thermal / Aluminum Silicon Carbide $VREX - X-Ray Tubes $GSM - Western Silicon Metal $INTT - Extreme Thermal Cycling $CODA - Turbidity (Murkiness) $NTI - Corrosion $PLAB - Photomask $MKSI - Plasma Control $KULR - Explosive Heat $PESI - Radioactive mixed waste. $CVV - Gas-to-Solid Deposition. $LPKFF - Laser Induced Deep Etching/ Glass Substrates These are just more of the "under the radar" small caps I was researching -> ended up choosing $AXTI and $LPTH if people were interested. Lot of them have terrible fundamentals despite being vital eg: $IQE (already pretty known), so it's not a good idea to just blindly buy a bottleneck. There were a lot more out there I haven't finished researching (so didn't include), and it's a lot harder to pinpoint ones that haven't been priced in. But wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these went up 5x over the next year.