$LPK
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等待LPK玻璃核心基板2027上半年批量订单。
回复 @DeauDeuxsau：只是2027年上半年应该会有 $LPK 的玻璃核心基板批量订单，除此之外没什么新闻，只是在等它发生。
英文原文
@DeauDeuxsau Just H1 2027 should be glass core substrate volume orders with $LPK, kinda no news aside from waiting on that to happen.
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AEHR市值约35亿美元，等待LPK等玩家批量订单。
$AEHR 的好日子来了，现在市值约35亿美元。 我最近没怎么提它，因为没有太多新东西。 只是等待 $LPK 以及其他这类玩家的批量订单。
英文原文
Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE
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IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
英文原文
A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
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称LPK论点不变，等待放量开始。
回复 @aiizisw77940 @talethdabm89：不是，$LPK 仍然一样，只是在等待放量开始。
英文原文
@aiizisw77940 @talethdabm89 Nope, it’s still the same with $LPK, just waiting on volume ramp to start.
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纠正玻璃核心基板时间线：2026下半年开始而非2028。
回复 @talethdabm89：那家研究公司的玻璃核心基板时间线错了。 应该是2026年下半年开始生产（SKC Absolics），不是2028年。TAM 数字到2040年看起来也不太对，所以我觉得最好不要引用。 尽管它不像 $LPK 和 GCS 那样覆盖完整价值链……
英文原文
@talethdabm89 The research firm got their glass core substrate timelines off. H2 2026 should be production start (SKC Absolics), not 2028. And TAM figures seems off toward 2040, so thought it was better not to cite it. Even though it’s not full value chain like $LPK and GCS in specific https://t.co/ixjeKpe3YH
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列举欧洲股票战绩：RPI、LPK、SOI大幅上涨。
以防有人好奇我在欧洲股票上的记录： $RPI：280美元 -> 800美元（agentic AI 硬件需求论点）。 $LPK：约6美元，13美元发表 thesis -> 24.2美元（玻璃核心基板近乎垄断）。 $SOI：44美元 -> 181美元（硅光子，衬底垄断）。
英文原文
Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) https://t.co/EWWaVL7Y49
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LPK表现不错。
$LPK 结果表现得相当不错。
英文原文
$LPK turned out pretty well. https://t.co/mZlTyd4oUO
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列出2026下半年四大做多主题：CPO、800VDC功率半导体、物理AI机器人、玻璃基板/先进封装。
如果你想找多头想法，2026年下半年有四个关键主题： 1. CPO，我最喜欢的主题，没有之一。我无法强调市场对它有多误解。 我在硅谷聊过的每个人现在都在私下资助光学初创公司，这是未来的重大信号。 2. 800VDC 功率半导体。我认为其他分析师某种程度上说服了我。 我曾小仓位持有 $NVTS，但令我惊讶的是它几乎翻倍了。进一步研究后，这在“哪些玩家变重要”上是一次相当剧烈的转变。 3. 物理 AI、人形机器人/机器人。你知道 $VPG 基本涨了三倍，我一直在找其他可做多玩家。 最有意思的下游多在私营部门，然后零部件主要在中国/日本。 4. 也许玻璃基板/先进封装仍然有机会，例如 $LPK。由于很多存储玩家最近已经重估，存储在列表中往后排了，不过小众 HBM4 玩家仍有很多机会。
英文原文
Four critical themes for h2 2026 if you want long ideas: 1. CPO, #1 #1 #1 #1 favorite theme. I cannot stress how much markets misunderstand this. Everyone I've talked in SV are privately funding optical startups right now and it's a big signal of what's to come. 2. 800 VDC power semis. I think other analysts kinda convinced me on this. I was in $NVTS for a tiny bit, low concentration. But this almost doubled to my surprise. But after doing more research, it's a pretty seismic shift in terms of what players become important 3. Physical AI Humanoids/Robotics. As you know $VPG basically tripled, and there's a lot of other players I've been trying to find longs on. Most downstream of interest are private sector... Then components are mainly in China/Japan. 4. Maybe Glass Substrate / advanced packaging stuff still eg. $LPK. Memory got pushed down on the list given how much players have re-rated recently, lot of opportunity still with niche hbm4 players.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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解释近期新增台湾/欧洲多头较多，是因为喜欢的美国股名单没变。
人们一直问： 嘿，为什么你最近有 $LPK 或 Foci 这样的台湾/欧洲新多头？ 而美国新名字不多？ 部分原因是，我喜欢的美国股票名单从 $INTC 到 $NBIS 并没有改变。 你总可以让自己喜欢的名字继续成长。
英文原文
People keep asking: Hey why do have new longs with Taiwan/EU stocks recently like $LPK or Foci? And not much with new US ones? It's partly because the list of US stocks I've liked from $INTC to $NBIS hasn't changed. You can always just let the ones you like grow. https://t.co/ostZWjOAAm
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欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈上涨，LPKF CEO买股增强信心。
欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈 go BRRR？ $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF CEO 在市场上买入股票，对散户是一个不错的信心投票。 更多 CEO 应该这么做，即使金额很小。
英文原文
European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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解释自己先选主题再选最优标的
我会先选一个我极度看好的主题，然后再挑最值得做多的玩家。 未来两年最大上行主题是 CPO，我对这个判断非常有信心。 我觉得 memory 处在超级周期尾段，回报可能少一些，但仍然不错。 长期 5 年以上则是 space 和 humanoids。 中间也有一些小机会，比如未来 6 个月的 glass substrate 转换，像 $LPK。
英文原文
I pick a theme I’m extraordinarily bullish on, then I pick the most compelling players to long. The largest upside theme is CPO over the next two years, I have extraordinarily high confidence in that statement. I think memory is tail end of supercycle where returns are probably less but still compelling. Long term 5+ years it’s space and humanoids. There’s little trades in between like glass substrate shifts with $LPK over next 6 months.
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宏观导致欧洲相关标的下跌
哇，欧洲今天真惨。 看起来从 $SOI 到 $LPK 等很多名字都因为纯宏观因素跌了 10-20%。 有意思的是，如果战事情绪像往常一样翻转，这些名字应该还会高很多。 https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
英文原文
Woah, rough day for Europe. Looks like everything from $SOI to $LPK and others are down 10-20% from overwhelmingly macro. Fun thing if war sentiment flips, as they often do with our president… lot of these names should go a lot higher. https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
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解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
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LPK 年内已成自己第 19 个翻倍以上持仓
现在 $LPK 已经成了我年内第 19 只 100-1000%+ 回报的个股。 今天又涨了 4.57%。 通常 1 或 2 只已经很不错了，但我今年已经写过并做多了 19 只上涨三位数的股票。 老实说我自己都挺佩服自己的。
英文原文
And now $LPK is #19 on the list of my individual stocks that returned 100-1000%+ YTD. After going up +4.57% today. Usually 1 or 2 is good, but I’ve written about and went long on 19 different stocks this year that went up triple digits. I’m kinda impressed with myself ngl? https://t.co/s9FLfTWHGd
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列出被点名的玻璃基板龙头链条
如果你感兴趣，这里是被点名的“领先”玻璃基板玩家： • $LPK —— TGV Equipment • $GLW —— 玻璃材料 • $ASGLY（5201 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $NIDGY（5214 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $LRCX —— 刻蚀设备 • $DSCSY（6146 T）—— 切割设备 • $SMHSF —— 键合系统 • $ONTO —— 检测工具 • $KLAC —— 检测工具 很有意思，像我年初就提到过的 LPK，当时市值只有大约 1.5 亿美元，如今却被 Trendforce 等机构点名成了关键玩家。
英文原文
“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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感叹订阅数接近 Elon，并提到自己关注的冷门想法
太离谱了……我的订阅数已经过半追上 Elon 了。 还差 2.4 万，我就会成为整个 X 平台第一。 想到一个普通人分享像 $LPK 到 $SOI 这种小众 AI 想法…… 居然有机会成为最大平台上最受欢迎的人，还是觉得很不真实。 https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
英文原文
Unreal… I’m over halfway there to Elon in subscriber count. 24K more and I’ll be #1 on the entire X platform! Feels surreal that a random person sharing their thoughts about niche AI ideas from $LPK to $SOI …. Has a chance to be the most popular one on the largest platform? https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
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认为 LPK 是玻璃基板超级周期的更干净玩法
$LPK 在过去两周涨了 80%。在大约 6.87 亿美元市值下，这成绩不算差。 它大概是下一个玻璃基板超级周期里最干净的玩法之一。 量产之后，每个客户可能要 50 到 100 台机器，2027 年的量产节奏会覆盖 $INTC、$GLW、SKC 等很多公司（因为它们已经拿到了大约 80% 的主要玩家）。 每台机器平均大概 200 万欧元。 仅仅 5 家玩家在 2027 年就可能带来 4 亿到 10 亿欧元以上的收入（甚至更多）？因为它们基本上是大家都在用的 chokepoint。按照约 67.6% 的综合毛利率看，等量产爬坡还是挺有希望的。
英文原文
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle. 50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players). Maybe ~€2M average per machine. €400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins. Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
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认为 LPK 是最喜欢的玻璃基板敞口
不，我现在最喜欢的敞口大概是 $LPK，因为它们给所有人供货。 我的意思是，如果你做多玻璃核心基板，Samsung、$INTC 和其他公司可能会更大一些。 SKC 可能是这个领域里市值最低的龙头。 然后如果它们跑通了，HB 大概会顺带受益，并且最终给其他玩家提供和良率相关的东西。
英文原文
No. $LPK is probably my favorite exposure right now since they supply to everyone. I'm just saying if people are long glass core substrates, Samsung, $INTC, and others are probably a bit bigger. SKC is probably the lowest MC leader in that space. Then if you see them succeeding, then HB gets a piggyback + probably ends up supplying yields related stuff to the other players.
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表示自己在 LPK 上的仓位最高
@tw_crypto_ 对，我在 $LPK 上的仓位最高……感觉像 HB / LPK 这种更上游的供应商，比 SKC 更去风险。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah I have highest concentration in $LPK... feels like more upstream suppliers like HB/LPK are more derisked than SKC.
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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LPK 继续垂直上涨，玻璃生态很热
@tw_crypto_ 对，$LPK 在垂直线往上走，玻璃生态很热闹。今天 photonics 虽然跌了，但 memory + glass 能把它平衡回来。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah $LPK is going in a vertical line up, fun times for the glass ecosystem. Photonics is down today, but memory + glass helps balance it out.
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观察到玻璃基板相关标的今天被机构一起买入
我感觉今天机构就是在买所有和玻璃核心基板有关的东西？ 像： - Philoptics，涨停 - HB technologies，涨停（SKC 供应商） - YCCHEM，涨 20% 而欧洲那边还有 $LPK。 不知道我是不是漏掉了什么重大消息。
英文原文
I feel like institutions are just buying everything glass core substrate related today? Stuff like: - Philoptics, limit up - HB technologies, limit up (SKC supplier) - YCCHEM +20% Then there's $LPK over in Europe. Wonder if I missed any major news.
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看到 SOI 和 LPK 一路上涨很开心
说实话，这还不错？ 看到市场在验证我的 thesis 帖子……像 $SOI（硅光基板）和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）都在一路向上，感觉挺好。
英文原文
Honestly not too bad? Cool to see markets validate my thesis posts… With $SOI (silicon photonic substrates) to $LPK (glass core substrates) going in a straight line up . https://t.co/yQbidG44we
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把 LPK 视作三倍潜力的第二梯队
@Jos1984482 如果非要给第 4 个名额，我会把 $LPK 放成三倍潜力的 runner up。
英文原文
@Jos1984482 $LPK is runner up for 3x potential if I had to give a 4th spot to a name.
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LPK 是卡点而非纯投机
@jpm7019 $LPK 不是那样。按开发进度来看，$ALMU 更接近“投机”这个定义。 $LPK 已经主导了一个卡点，而且几乎所有半导体公司都在做认证。 现在只是猜这些半导体公司的量产爬坡会是什么样，以及这会怎样影响市值。
英文原文
@jpm7019 $LPK not exactly. $ALMU fits the definition more of speculation just going off development. $LPK is already dominates a chokepoint and is qualifying with almost every semi. It’s just guessing what volume ramp looks like for all the semi companies and how that affects MC.
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解读 LPKF 财报要看量产信号
关于 LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> 财报的一些看法： 这很微妙，下面是市场可能漏掉的点： 如果你把财务数据孤立出来看，又不理解认证周期，那看起来就很糟。 财报电话会上关于量产爬坡的信号才是真正重要的。 1. “先进封装领域的潜在量产订单没有计入当前的基准指引” 任何在下半年落地的量产设备订单，都会立刻对他们的预期形成上行惊喜。（正面） 2. “LIDE 目前已在众多半导体客户的测试和研发环境中使用；预期后续订单……” 这确认了我们预期的情况，很多半导体公司都在对 $LPK 做认证。（正面） 3. “今年预计会有首批生产订单” 这意味着 2026 年下半年会确认量产爬坡拐点，这可能是市场漏掉的最大信号，而且这些内容没有计入任何预测。（非常正面） 从之前的采访里，我们还能拼出： 问：2027 年是否仍是玻璃基板进入大规模生产的起点？这个时间表还成立吗？ “是的。市场参与者正在为生产设备下单，第一季度已经录得初始订单。虽然挑战仍在，但我依然预计 2027 年会标志着大规模生产的开始。” 2027 年是玻璃核心基板的大规模生产，但 2026 年下半年才是 $LPK 量产订单的起点，而且**这些并不在任何预测里**。 财报已经确认了这些时间线。 基本上： -> 你不会在财务预测里看到和玻璃核心基板量产爬坡有关的任何内容，而这恰恰是美国投资者最关心的。 -> 单看财报，客观上很差，但如果你是按过去 12 个月而不是未来增长来建模，那才会这么看。 -> 已确认下半年开始爬坡。玻璃核心基板 2027 年进入量产。 如果有什么的话，这对玻璃核心基板量产爬坡的核心逻辑其实非常正面。 关键还是要看订单有多少。
英文原文
Thoughts on LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> earnings: Very nuanced, here's what markets might have missed: If you look at the financials in isolation and don't understand qualification cycles, it's bad. The earnings call for volume ramp indicators are what's actually important. 1. "Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance" Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise to their projections. (positive) 2. "LIDE is currently in use by numerous semiconductor customers in test and R&D environments; the expected follow-up orders..." Confirmation of what we expected, with many semiconductor companies qualifying $LPK. (positive) 3. "First production orders expected this year" Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026, this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that. (very positive) From previous interviews we can stitch together: Q: 2027 as the start of mass production for glass substrates. Does this timeline still hold? "Yes. Market players are preparing orders for production equipment, and initial orders have already been recorded in the first quarter. While challenges remain, I still expect 2027 to mark the beginning of mass production." 2027 is mass production of glass core substrates, but H2 2026 is start of mass production orders for $LPK, **which is not included in any forecasts**. We got confirmation of timelines from earnings. Basically: -> You won't see any projections/financials around glass core substrate related VOLUME RAMP which is the only thing American investors care about with this company. -> Earnings in isolation were objectively terrible, but you only care about this as a European if you model based on previous 12 months only (instead of future growth). -> Confirmation of volume ramp starting H2. Glass Core substrate mass production 2027. If anything, this was extremely positive for the core thesis about volume ramp for glass core substrates. We'll see how much the orders are though.
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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LPK 主打玻璃基板和激光刻蚀卡点
@MickaelLacoste2 不是。玻璃基板才是下一波先进封装浪潮。 而 $LPK 在激光诱导深蚀刻上几乎是功能性垄断。 这更像是对下一代封装范式的纯度敞口，而且没有 SKC 那种拖累，也没有 $INTC 那种其他业务分散。
英文原文
@MickaelLacoste2 No. Glass substrates are the next advanced packaging wave. And $LPK has a functional monopoly over laser induced deep etching. It’s more of pure play exposure to the next packaging paradigm without the drag SKC has or other segments $INTC has.
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LPK 受益于玻璃核心基板与 CPO
我猜市场也认同我对 $LPK 的看法？ -> 当玻璃核心基板是下一波先进封装浪潮 -> 又是一个垄断卡点 -> 再叠加 CPO 应用。 通常就会一路起飞。 https://t.co/46u7msyDIl
英文原文
I guess markets agree with my take on $LPK? -> When you have glass core substrates as the next advanced packaging wave -> be a monopoly chokepoint -> add in CPO applications. It typically goes brrr. https://t.co/46u7msyDIl
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一
@snmart $LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一。我一直很喜欢新赛道里的功能性垄断，比如玻璃基板。
英文原文
@snmart $LPK is one of my favorite names, I tend to be a fan of functional monopolies in new sectors like glass substrates.
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TOWA 是 HBM4 垄断卡点
所以我就直说了：市值 13.5 亿美元的 Towa（6315）…… 它是 HBM4（压缩成型）上很罕见、活生生的垄断定义。 虽然今年到现在几乎没怎么涨，但像 $MU、SK 海力士、三星这些存储厂商都是他们的客户。而且每一家存储厂商的财报都在指向大幅增加 capex。 就连从 $TSM 的财报也能看出来，所有主要半导体公司都在经历一轮巨额资本开支周期，以满足 AI 需求。 三大存储厂商也都从 HBM3E 和 NAND 里赚得很猛……所以下一轮 capex 周期大概不会像上一轮那样了（意思就是花得会更多）。 像 $ASML 一样，这种东西周期性极强，但我想在未来几个月的 HBM4 capex 爆发里拿到敞口。 我想把这个名字和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）一起放到大家视野里，因为它们都是功能性垄断。 但我确实觉得现在这个时间点刚刚好，毕竟所有机器供应商都在大幅重估，而它相对还是平的。 这也不算什么新发现，因为之前还有别的分析师和一些随机关注者提过这个名字，但希望我这次把时点抓对了。 （免责声明：我确实持仓，这只是我自己想法的 TLDR，请不要跟单）
英文原文
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
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CPU 热度盖过了存储
现在市场都在盯着 CPU，差点把存储给忘了。 但……SK 海力士、$MU、三星最近都在提高 capex，而且三星最近还开始了 HBM4 生产。 $TSM 也释放了全行业创纪录 capex 的信号。 但就像 $LPK 在玻璃核心基板上的逻辑一样…… HBM 阵营里其实也有不少结构性垄断，是市场可能忘掉了的，尤其是在日本这些地方。 它们大概率会从当前的 HBM4 capex 周期里受益。 韩国那边，像 Hanmi Semi（KRX: 042700）今天都涨了 27.6%+，所以我猜全球其他公司也很快会跟上。
英文原文
Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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别盲目跟单
我真心佩服有一位朋友靠 copy trade 一路做到管理对冲基金。 但请不要盲目复制我谈到的东西，比如 $AXTI 或 $LPK。 这也是我一直没做 copy-trading app、也不告诉大家我什么时候卖出的主要原因。 我只是想在自己的旅程里，免费持续发布有趣的想法 / 研究。 目标是帮助你们把复杂信息整合起来，建立自己的 thesis / conviction。 不过，我还是很乐意免费分享我的想法。
英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed one of you copy traded your way into managing a hedge fund. But please don’t blindly copy stuff I talk about like $AXTI or $LPK. That’s the main reason I haven’t done copy-trading apps or tell people when I sell. I just want to publish interesting thoughts / research for free as I go along my journey. With the goal of helping you all synthesize complex information to build your own thesis/conviction. Happy to help share my thoughts for free though.
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LPK 玻璃基板卡点很稀有
我猜市场会喜欢像 $LPK 这种玻璃核心基板敞口？ 这类公司很稀有，能持有类似 $SOI 那种位置。 就像一只闪光的 Zigzagoon……能找到这些卡点。 https://t.co/pjsjxgDhTa
英文原文
I guess markets like glass core substrate exposure like $LPK? It is pretty rare to find these types of companies that hold positions that resemble $SOI. Like a Shiny Zigzagoon… finding these chokepoints. https://t.co/pjsjxgDhTa
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
现在很多人不停问我对 $LPKK / $LPK 的看法。 是的，我之前说过，它们就像 LIDE（激光诱导深蚀刻）里玻璃核心基板的卡点。 已知最大的合作伙伴是 $ONTO（LPKF 和 Onto 的计量检测合作，用于玻璃核心的大规模生产）。 至于市场份额："超过 80% 的全球主要客户都选择了 LPKF 设备" 用于流程验证。 所以这大概包括： - Samsung Electronics / Electro-Mechanics - $INTC（收到一家领先芯片制造商的大单……在 2020 年初安装了第一套 LIDE 系统……现在又下单更多 LIDE 系统以开始量产） - SKC（Absolics） - $GLW、AGC、Schott。 - Nippon Electric Glass。 当然，这里说的是评估，所以实际放量时那个 80% 可能会更低。 再说一些我自己的前瞻市盈率计算： - 2027：大约 11-12.5 倍，2028 大约 7.8 倍，看起来非常有吸引力。 - 总现金：约 1000 万欧元，债务大约 300 万欧元。负债权益比：约 3.8% 资产负债表非常干净、轻资产，没有像 $SHMD 那样的稀释悬压。 市值约 3.62 亿美元，我的结论是：我认为上行空间很大，迟早会看到机构买入这个名字。 即便 80% 的玩家最终能设计出别的方案，只要有一部分转化，市值也会很有意义。 这可能几个月前还偏早，但玻璃核心路线图现在正像 CPO 一样加速。 披露：我确实有仓位。这只是我的想法。 X 上的人确实做了功课。
英文原文
People nonstop ask me about $LPKK / $LPK for my opinion Yes, I mentioned they're like a chokepoint for glass core substrates for LIDE (laser induced deep etching) way back when. Biggest known partner is $ONTO (LIDE with Onto metrology for glass core mass production). Then as for market share: "more than 80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment" for process validation. So that probably includes: - Samsung Electronics/Electro-Mechanics - $INTC (Receives a Major Order from a Leading Chip Manufacturer... installed a first LIDE system at the beginning of 2020... now ordered further LIDE systems to start volume production) - SKC (Absolics) - $GLW, AGC, Schott. - Nippon electric glass. Of course this is evaluation, so that 80% could be lower in actual ramp. As for some personal FWD P/E calculations: - 2027: ~11-12.5x and ~7.8x for 2028, which looks very compelling. - Total Cash: ~€10.0M, debt was around ~€3.0M. debt to equity: ~3.8% So very clean-asset light balance sheet, no dilution overhang like $SHMD. ~$362m MC, conclusion: great upside long imo, hard to see institutions not buying this name down the road. Even if the 80% of players managed to design another way, even a fraction would probably be very material to the MC. It was probably a bit early few months ago, but glass core roadmaps have been speeding up like CPO. Disclosure: I do have positions. This are just my thoughts. People on X did their homework.