$ALRIB
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IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
英文原文
A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈上涨，LPKF CEO买股增强信心。
欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈 go BRRR？ $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF CEO 在市场上买入股票，对散户是一个不错的信心投票。 更多 CEO 应该这么做，即使金额很小。
英文原文
European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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ALRIB 没变化，自己还持有
@0xMonney $ALRIB 没什么变化，就是没有新消息。 我还是持有我的多头仓位。
英文原文
@0xMonney Nothings changed with $ALRIB, just no new news. I still have my long positions.
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说 ALRIB 在慢慢化妆式上涨
@nirmatanirmatan $ALRIB 正在慢慢做妆容。
英文原文
@nirmatanirmatan $ALRIB is taking its time to do makeup
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ALRIB 仍在等待定价
关于 $ALRIB 没有新消息，我还是多头。 我只是让市场自己定价，不给目标位。 我倒是觉得，在 3 亿美元市值时，这家给 $MSFT 量子业务和其他量子点项目（比如 QD……以及硅光应用）供货的机器供应商，可能很快会吸引一些机构注意。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
There’s no new news with $ALRIB, I’m still long. I’m just letting markets price it in, not giving any targets. I do think at $300m MC, the machine supplier to $MSFT quantum, and other quantum dot programs like QD… and silicon photonic applications might get some institutional attention soon. We’ll see.
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欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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量子点太早，先看设备商
@dontbuytops $ALMU 和量子点对于做多的人来说真的太早了，QD laser 也是一样。 如果你想参与 capex / R&D 周期，看看像 $ALRIB 这样的设备供应商会更好。
英文原文
@dontbuytops $ALMU and quantum dot is way way too early for people going long on that and QD laser. If you want to play capex R&D cycles, look at machine suppliers like $ALRIB, $VECO or $AIXA or that level.
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做多 $ALRIB，看好机构和Apollo会入场收购，散户领先一步
我在 $ALRIB 做多。其他关于 Riber 或光子学板块的看空帖子，我不怎么看重，因为我对自己的投资论点很有信心。 Apollo 明天就能轻松花掉 5 亿美元，眼睛都不眨一下，直接买下为 $MSFT / 超大规模云商量子以及其他量子点项目服务的关键环节。 这就是我说的抢先机构，我非常确信机构会想要持有一定比例的股份，但散户在这个标的上是早期的。
英文原文
I’m long on $ALRIB, I don’t place much value on other bear posts on Riber or photonics names since I’m confident in my own thesis. Apollo can literally blow $500m tomorrow, not bat an eye, and buy the chokepoint for $MSFT / hyperscaler quantum and other Quantum Dot programs. This is what I mean by frontrunning institutions, I’m very confident they will want to own a % but retail is early to the name.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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说 SOI 已是今年第 16 只翻倍股。
哇，$SOI 现在已经成了我第 16 只…… 我今年写过的 mini thesis 里，已经有一只回报超过 100% 了。 最近两只是 $ALRIB 和 $RPI。 为什么我身边的一切都在翻倍？ https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
英文原文
Wow $SOI is now the 16th name... I've done a mininthesis post on that returned over 100% Year to Date. The most recent two were $ALRIB and $RPI. Why does everything around me keep doubling? https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
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分析ALRIB作为超大规模云厂商关键供应商的量子/硅光投资逻辑，预期被重估。
其实不需要对 $ALRIB 写得很详细吧？ >Riber 与 $VECO 在 MBE 设备上形成有效的盈利双头垄断格局，此前交易时远期倍数较低。 >从公开信息发现 $MSFT Quantum 是 Riber 的核心超大规模云厂商买家 >其他客户包括 $IQE、QD Laser（量子点）、IntelliEPI 等。 思考过程： 还有哪些市值低于10亿美元的公司直接向 $GOOGL、$MSFT 等超大规模云厂商供应产品，用于他们的前沿(frontier)项目？ 而且这些供应商是否关键到无法被替代？ 除了 $AEHR 我真的想不出其他公司，但 $AEHR 现在市值已经从6亿美元涨到23亿美元了…… 所以我认为 $ALRIB 对于量子/硅光子领域的敞口很有吸引力。 如果一家市值约3亿美元的盈利公司正在为超大规模云厂商的前沿量子项目提供支持…… 很可能在未来某个时间点被重新估值到三位数（美元）。
英文原文
It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB? > Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples. > $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery > $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it. Thought process: What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs? And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced? Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m... So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure. If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program… Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.
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说 IQE 可能很快会超过 AXTI 的传奇 thesis。
我对 $IQE 的判断……可能很快就会超过我那篇传奇的 $AXTI thesis？ 才过了 2 个月： 现在在机构开始公开买入后，涨幅已经超过 +316%，而且还在继续涨。 欧洲那边像 $ALRIB、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这种关键瓶颈股最近也很有意思。 我觉得它们从现在开始大概率还会再复合出三位数涨幅，即使已经涨了一大截。 散户这还是第一次这么早。 所以，预计很快会有大量机构资金涌入这些关键供应链公司，尤其是 $SIVE，等 NASDAQ 上市之后。
英文原文
My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It’s only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up. Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe. Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies. Retail is just extremely early for the first time. So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.
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说让 ALRIB 自然演化，但仍预计会再翻倍。
@economista_new 没有啊？我只是让 $ALRIB 顺其自然发展，不过我还是预计它会再翻倍。
英文原文
@economista_new No? Just letting nature take its course with $ALRIB, I do expect it to double again though.
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说 ALRIB 是量子链条里最喜欢的名字。
$ALRIB 是我在这个赛道里最喜欢的名字，尤其是在市场发现 $MSFT Quantum 会从他们那里采购之后。 现在还稍微有点早，但做机器设备销售的公司会受益于今天整个研发 capex 周期，而且你不需要在 $IONQ、$RGTI、$QBTS、$GOOGL 或其他赢家之间二选一。
英文原文
$ALRIB is my favorite for that sector, especially now that markets found out $MSFT Quantum buys from them. It's still a bit early, but the machine sellers benefit from the entire R&D capex cycle today and you don't need to pick between $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS, $GOOGL or others winning.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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回顾自己一次性命中了 15 只翻倍股。
对，就是这样……我怎么会这么准确地找出来并做多。 整整十五只不同的股票。 8+7。9+6。10+5。 在 $ALRIB 之后，那个 $MSFT Quantum 供应商又涨了 113%，这样一来我今年命中的多头一共到了 15 只。 这居然已经带来了年内三位数回报？？？ 没有付费墙，而且我在它们启动前就把所有东西都发出来了。 我就是在硬把散户从永久底层里往外拉。
英文原文
Yep… How did I call out and long. FIFTEEN DIFFERENT STOCKS. 8+7. 9+6. 10+5. After $ALRIB, the $MSFT Quantum supplier went up 113%, that hit 15 different longs. That returned Triple Digits year to date??? No paywall, and I've posted everything before it moved. Hard carrying retail out of the permanent underclass.
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越看越觉得 ALRIB 很有吸引力。
$ALRIB 这只我开始越看越顺眼了。 首先，它有 $MSFT Quantum 作为核心 hyperscaler 客户。 然后它还有像 QD Laser 这样的量子点客户……以及像 $IQE 这样的光子晶圆代工客户。 而且它是盈利的，还在分红…… 在 MBE 领域也是真正的双寡头。 再加上新的硅光机器突破，订单簿还在加速增长…… 我一直把 $LWLG 和 Riber 这种东西拿来对比，然后就一直在想： 这在当前价格下，难道不就是很有吸引力吗？
英文原文
$ALRIB is starting to grow on me. First they have $MSFT Quantum as their core hyperscaler customer. Then they have Quantum Dot like QD Laser… and photonics foundries like $IQE as customers. And it’s profitable + paying dividends… And a genuine duopoly in the MBE space. And accelerating order book growth with a new breakthrough in silicon photonics machines.. I keep comparing $LWLG with stuff like Riber, then I keep thinking: Isn’t this just highly compelling at current prices?
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说市场喜欢发现 MSFT 是秘密客户。
原来市场很喜欢在发现 $MSFT 是你的秘密客户时给你加价？ 我不认识多少市值低于 10 亿美元、却直接给 hyperscaler 供货的公司。 $ALRIB 在信息发现之后，看起来正沿着一条缓慢胜利的上升路线走。 https://t.co/palenXPLJS
英文原文
Turns out markets like it when they find out $MSFT is your secret customer? I don’t know many companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers. $ALRIB looks like it’s on a slow victory march upward after information discovery. https://t.co/palenXPLJS
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说先发现 MSFT 是 ALRIB 的隐藏客户很关键。
@LeaderInvests 很简单，就是先在整个市场都不知道之前，找到一个朋友发现 $MSFT 是 $ALRIB 的隐藏 hyperscaler 客户。
英文原文
@LeaderInvests It’s as simple as finding a friend who figures out $MSFT is the hidden hyperscaler customer of $ALRIB before the entire market knows
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量子点激光投资应优先选择MBE设备供应商如Riber，比下游纯激光公司更早受益于超大规模云厂商资本开支周期。
如果你想交易超大规模云厂商的资格认证周期……以及像QD Laser（TYO: 6613）这样年内涨幅达226%的量子点激光：IMO最安全的方式是在早期就关注他们未披露的MBE机器供应商，如$ALRIB。然后当他们从资格认证阶段转向批量订单时，再转向纯激光公司。我之前提到过，$MSFT量子的Riber未披露的超大规模云厂商客户。但QD Laser（越来越受欢迎）在量子点项目上也严重依赖Riber。我不看好进入批量生产阶段（比如$AIXA对比实际的批量生产商），因为设备厂商无法捕获下游收入。但如果你想从资本开支研发周期中获益……比如QD Laser吸收资本开支成本（支付给Riber）来建设产能，$ALRIB、$ASML、$AIXA这类公司的财务数据通常会更早反映在资产负债表上，所以你不需要等2-3年才看到生产订单。
英文原文
If you want to trade hyperscaler qualification cycles… And quantum dot like QD Laser (TYO: 6613) up 226% YTD: IMO safest way to do it are their unknown MBE machine suppliers like $ALRIB early on. Then pivot to pure play lasers later when they move from qualification -> volume orders. I mentioned earlier $MSFT quantum was Riber’s undisclosed hyperscaler customer. But QD laser (getting popular) is heavily reliant on Riber too for their quantum dot program. I’m not a fan when it comes time to volume production (eg. $AIXA vs the actual volume producers) since machines don’t capture downstream revenue. But if you want to benefit from capex R&D cycles… eg. QD Laser absorbing capex costs (paying Riber) to build capacity $ALRIB, $ASML, $AIXA type companies usually hits the balance sheet much earlier so you don’t need to wait 2-3 years for production orders.
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认为 AEHR、ALRIB 也可能 10 倍，IQE 具备很强的 InP 产能潜力。
@yuntungshieh 老实说，我也不会惊讶如果 $AEHR 或 $ALRIB 最后都能涨 10 倍。 不过 $IQE 有很多潜在的 InP 产能，只是他们需要重组并重新梳理自己的反应炉。
英文原文
@yuntungshieh Honestly would not be surprised if $AEHR or $ALRIB 10x either. But $IQE had a lot of latent capacity for InP, they just needed to restructure and refactor their reactors.
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解释 ALRIB 与微软量子相关，但市场目前可能还没给出合理定价。
@MarginCallMick 这只是围绕 $MSFT Quantum 和 $ALRIB 的新信息发现。市场怎么给它们和超大规模客户的关联定价，我也控制不了。 现在很多事情本来就是算法驱动的。
英文原文
@MarginCallMick This is just new information discovery around $MSFT Quantum and $ALRIB. Can't control how market prices in that connection to a hyperscaler. A lot of things are just algorithmically driven nowadays.
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澄清新标的是英伟达 CPO 生态相关的量子跟进。
@devandraan 不是的，这个新名字和 $NVDA 的 CPO 生态有关。这只是关于一个量子标的的后续跟进。
英文原文
@devandraan It's not, new name is related to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. This is just a follow-up regarding a quantum name.
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认为微软量子可能在买 Riber，其量子设备业务很有看点。
$MSFT 看起来像是在秘密买入 Riber < $ALRIB >，用于 Microsoft Quantum。 更广泛的市场和算法大概还不知道这种关联。 MBE 对量子计算、量子点激光器、VCSEL 和硅光子都很重要。 但如果 Microsoft Quantum： -> 开始向这家欧洲设备制造商采购 那长期影响会很大。 量子仍然非常早期，早期产业的风险也很实在。 但如果这家公司看起来像量子领域的 $AIXA，而且作为和 $VECO 并列的 MBE 双寡头之一，前瞻市盈率大约 27 倍并且还在盈利，那它就挺有意思的。 从公开的 LinkedIn 线索来看，美国超大规模客户正在使用 Riber 的 MBE 设备来制造前沿量子芯片。 至少这能验证这家公司作为一项技术的重要性。 而且也让它看起来更有机会在未来拿到量子计算和量子点资本开支周期。
英文原文
$MSFT looks like a secret buyer of Riber < $ALRIB > for Microsoft Quantum. The broader market and algorithms likely don’t know this connection yet. MBEs are important for quantum computing, quantum dot lasers, VCSELs, and silicon photonics. But the long-term implications are sizable if Microsoft Quantum: -> Are starting to buy from this European equipment manufacturer Quantum is still very early and risks to early stage industries are material. But since this company looks like an $AIXA for Quantum and trades at a profitable ~27x est. forward P/E, as a duopoly for MBE with $VECO, it looks interesting. From open LinkedIn intelligence, having a US hyperscaler use Riber MBE equipment to fab frontier quantum chips. At the very least helps validate the company’s importance as a technology. And makes it appear well positioned to capture quantum computing and quantum dot capex cycles in the near future.
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感谢 9200 付费订阅，并表示大家喜欢自己的研究思路。
哇，已经有 9200 位付费订阅者了…… 我真的非常感激，谢谢大家！ 很高兴很多人觉得我从 $JBL 到 $ALRIB 这些随机标的上的思路对他们有帮助，只要 1 美元就能看到。
英文原文
Woah 9200 paid subscribers… I’m super humbled, thank you everyone! Im glad a lot of people found my thought process on random names from $JBL to $ALRIB helpful for $1! https://t.co/LXGVgFPDJt