2026-04-23 · 供应链分析

欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢

涉及标的： $ALRIB $AVGO $AXTI $INTC $LPK $NVDA $SIVE $TSM

中文翻译

我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下：从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。

英文原文

There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.

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