$AXTI
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博主因AXTI和IREN暴跌，开始相信九月是全年最差月份的说法。
在目睹了从 $AXTI 到 $IREN 等股票被“核爆”式暴跌后……我开始相信那个“九月是全年最差月份”的都市传说了。
英文原文
After seeing everything from $AXTI to $IREN get nuked… I’m starting to believe in the: “September is the worst month of the year” myth. https://t.co/sck3Y0pOg2
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看好AAOI 2027年表现及AXTI衬底瓶颈，提示短期抛压与稀释风险。
@DZMakeMoney 我无法就人们应如何处理交易提供建议。就个人而言，我认为 $AAOI 在 2027 年将表现优异，且 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈/卡脖子环节已得到验证。对于 AXT 而言，更多取决于其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 等协议带来的平均售价(ASP)提升。AXT 近期因宏观因素受高贝塔 AI 板块抛售的负面影响。AOI 有一笔令人失望的 6 亿美元可转换优先股(ATM)发行，造成大量短期压力。但这不影响其 2027 年光模块(transceiver)需求可见度，且他们应很快完成 1.6T 认证。过去两个月出现大幅回调，但取决于你发现什么有吸引力，也有许多机会。
英文原文
@DZMakeMoney I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades. Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated. With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is negatively affected by high beta AI sector selloff recently with macro. AOI has a very disappointing $600m ATM so that’s a lot of near term overhang. But doesn’t affect their 2027 transceiver demand visibility and they should finish 1.6T qualifications soon. Past 2 month has seen major corrections, but there’s a lot of opportunity too depending on what you find compelling
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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AXTI虽证实瓶颈地位，但需极高ASP才能支撑高估值，合同细节待观察。
@he8496 $AXTI 需要将磷化铟(InP)基板的平均售价(ASP)提高到内存级别的极端水平，才能实现进一步的重估，例如达到 2000-3000 亿美元的估值。我认为瓶颈已得到证实，其卡脖子地位也已得到证实。然而，我不清楚其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的合同或长期协议(LTA)具体包含什么内容。随着时间推移我们会看到结果（披露* 持有 AXT 股份）。
英文原文
@he8496 $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations. I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven. However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time (disclosure* own AXT shares).
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引用AXTI历史案例，指出市场曾强烈反对其13美元时的股价。
@Ice_Tradingg 当 $AXTI 股价为 13 美元时，市场也曾强烈反对。
英文原文
@Ice_Tradingg The market also strongly disagreed when $AXTI was $13.
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博主以调侃语气回应粉丝，提及AXTI股票。
@Partfortynineg1 我帮你搞定了 $AXTI 的安慰，Boobworld Morty。https://t.co/dxToRnjPee
英文原文
@Partfortynineg1 I got you covered with the $AXTI cope boobworld morty. https://t.co/dxToRnjPee
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博主回顾粉丝破百万及观点验证，调侃身份危机并询问下一步方向。
正经历中期 X 平台身份危机： ✓ 看到 $AXTI 到 $NBIS 的 2025 年观点被所有人验证 ✓ 我们得到了 $AMD 头巾 ✓ 意外成为 X 上订阅人数第 1 的人 ✓ 中国“白发”昵称 ✓ 100 万粉丝 仍在此追踪观点，但下一个支线任务是什么？
英文原文
Having a mid-X identity crisis rn: ✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone ✓ we got $AMD bandanas ✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident ✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames ✓ 1M followers Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?
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AI半导体板块分化，光学股复苏节奏各异，预期风险偏好回升将带动反弹。
@pkcapital_ 从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 来看，AI 半导体主题(AI semi theme)正在下跌。高贝塔(higher beta)个股似乎受到的打击最重。从我观察到的光学(optical)个股趋势来看，$LITE / $COHR 恢复最快，其次是规模更大但仍属高贝塔的个股如 $AAOI / $AXTI（恢复了一半）。而像 $SIVE / $POET 这类个股耗时最长。但我认为，当市场风险偏好(risk-on)回升或财报(earnings)推动重新评级(re-ratings)时，会出现更强劲的反弹。
英文原文
@pkcapital_ The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.
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股价下跌不消除供应链瓶颈，建议关注实质财报而非波动。
@darkseidzz 我不知道该怎么跟人们说……但如果 $SNDK 或村田(Murata) 或 $AXTI 股价下跌，NAND/MLCCs/磷化铟(InP) 的瓶颈并不会消失。 这帮人只看财报发布时的价格波动来判断好坏。 也许看看实际的财报或真正发生的事情会更好……
英文原文
@darkseidzz I’m not sure how to tell people this… but the NAND/MLCCs/InP bottleneck doesnt disappear if $SNDK or Murata or $AXTI drops in price. Same group of folks who only look at price volatility on earnings release to see if it’s good or not. Probably better to look at the actual earnings report or what’s actually happening…
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博主回应去年对AXTI的看空观点已应验，引发关注。
@rektusd101 去年大家都因为 $AXTI 是一家骗局公司而对我冷嘲热讽。所以我认为当事情应验时，它确实吸引了更多关注。
英文原文
@rektusd101 Everyone was giving me crap over $AXTI being a scam company last year. So I think it got a lot more attention when it played out.
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InP短缺致价格大涨，验证博主此前对供应链瓶颈及涨价的预测。
“严重的磷化铟(InP)短缺引发史上最大涨幅”——$AXTI。 供应商直言：“即使你有钱，也可能买不到材料”（哈哈）。 - 行业消息源透露，InP衬底价格从去年第四季度开始上涨，这是连续第四次衬底涨价。 - 预计最新的第四季度涨幅将超过10%。 - 同时，由这些衬底制成的外延片(epitaxial wafers)价格已上调两次，市场正走向第四季度的第三次连续涨价。（我也写过关于$IQE的论点，该公司同样受益）。 文章指出VPEC、Landmark、IET受益（以台湾为中心的报道）。 我去年就预测到了这一点……瓶颈是真实的，但我对接下来的涨价幅度有更高的预期。 很高兴它开始应验了。
英文原文
"Severe InP Shortage Triggers Largest Price Hike Ever" - $AXTI. Suppliers have bluntly stated that "even if you have the money, you still may not be able to get the material" (lol). - Industry sources revealed that InP substrate prices began rising in Q4 last year and was the fourth consecutive substrate price hike. - The latest Q4 hike is expected to be >10%, - Meanwhile, prices for epitaxial wafers made from those substrates have already been raised two times, and the market is moving toward a 3rd consecutive increase in Q4. (I also wrote a thesis on $IQE, which benefits here too). Article states VPEC, Landmark, IET benefits (Taiwan centric reporting). I did predict this last year... The bottleneck is real, but I do have higher expectations for price hikes that comes next. Glad it's starting to play out.
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博主认为应跟随Nvidia指引，押注CPO及物理AI供应链。
我觉得AI投资比人们预期的更简单。因为$NVDA和Jensen几乎直接告诉大家未来是什么。但不知为何，几乎每次市场都要等到事情真正发生才认可？ 2025年的Nvidia：大量收购EML和激光产能。 市场当时嗤之以鼻：“光子学是泡沫，像量子计算一样！____公司是骗局，管理层可疑。” 一年后：$LITE +678%，$AAOI +475.12%，$COHR +260.7%，$AXTI +3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的Nvidia： 通过长期协议(LTA)大量收购CW/EML产能。转向800V。明确强调共封装光学(CPO)的转型。指出物理AI(Physical AI)是下一个主题。 市场现在：“CW玩家是 meme 股！800V和CPO短期内不会到来，人形机器人无利可图！” 嗯……我们看看2027年会发生什么。 我认为我会押注Jensen/Nvidia作为领先指标。
英文原文
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
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博主列出过往持仓的年初至今表现，反问质疑者是否改变看法。
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr 你可以看看我今年早些时候或去年建仓的以下股票的年初至今(YTD)表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU。 然后告诉我你是否还坚持之前的看法。
英文原文
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
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IQE论点获验证，债务清零且获大厂订单，作者继续持有看多。
感觉今年2月我对 $IQE 的论点连同 $AXTI 等一起得到了验证。（我目前仍持有两者的多头头寸） 所以我减少了对它们的覆盖。但简而言之，更新如下： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于它的论点时，IQE 是光学供应链中一个陷入困境但关键的瓶颈环节，与 $LITE 等公司有关联。 自那以来： - $MTSI 签署了长期外延晶圆供应协议，并入股该公司，现在 IQE 已无银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签署了磷化铟(InP)外延晶圆协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 族外延晶圆供应” - IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中仍在展开的部分是 IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以匹配该领域的同行如 Landmark（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，略多于一年的时间）。 还有一些国家安全层面的含义，我将避免谈论，但这使它们更加重要。 但基本上： 2025财年营收：9730万英镑 2026财年指引：超过1.265亿英镑 它们在光学领域再次快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。 现在……随着与领先光子学公司的新协议带来营收增长，以及像 Macom 这样的玩家充当软性后盾。 通常在论点得到验证后，我只是坐享企业的增长。
英文原文
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
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LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。
$LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……
英文原文
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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激光器及InP衬底未来2-3年或现短缺，CPO扩产加剧瓶颈。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
英文原文
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.
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博主重申看多AXTI，认为InP衬底供需失衡及瓶颈论点已获验证。
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo 我字面上和法律上都不能给你们建议。 我个人持有并仍然看多 $AXTI，因为我认为在未来2-3年内，磷化铟(InP)衬底的需求失衡状况不会消失。 我的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈论点+AI建设破坏性影响，在今年中期从路透社到其他外延晶圆(epiwafer)财报电话会议中得到了验证。 你们随意。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 @00m00oo I literally and legally can't give you advice. I'm personally long and still bullish on $AXTI since I don't think InP substrate demand imbalance will be going anywhere over the next 2-3 years. And my InP substrate bottleneck thesis + AI buildout disruption got validated midway through the year from Reuters to other epiwafer earnings calls. You do you
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重申AXTI对AI建设的威胁论点，指出激光器采购才是供应链瓶颈。
@coolATCS 看到人们重申我去年关于 $AXTI 的论点，将其视为对 AI 建设构成的真正威胁，这让我很高兴。另外补充一点细节：中际旭创(Innolight) 从其他厂商采购 EML/CW 激光器，这才是瓶颈所在。下游的组装/集成环节并非瓶颈。
英文原文
@coolATCS It makes me happy that people are reiterating my $AXTI thesis from last year like it's a legitimate threat to the AI buildout now. Also just some nuance Innolight, buys EML/CW lasers off other players, which is the bottleneck. Not so much downstream assembly/integration layers.
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AXTI因处上游难受美出口管制，但或成反制目标。
@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI 处于产业链过于上游的位置。我确实不认为他们会受到美国的出口管制。 但他们可能会被用作反制工具，我们拭目以待。
英文原文
@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI is too far upstream. I definitely do not see them going to be export controlled by the US. But they could be used in retaliation, we’ll see.
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亚马逊资本支出上调及算力短缺证实，AXTI 产能扩张且供不应求，看多 AI 半导体及光通信供应链。
几条财报摘要，重点是我看好的 $AXTI 和 $AMZN： 亚马逊： - 将 2026 年资本支出上调至 2200 亿美元（此前为 2000 亿美元），部分原因是内存成本上升，这对 $MU 和三星是利好。 - 即使达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊的产能仍无法满足 2026 年的所有需求；Jassy 预计 2027 年情况相同。 - 大多数 2027 年的新增产能已被预订，2028 年的大量产能也已预订。 主要浏览了上游半导体板块。$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN 和 $MSFT 均指出算力短缺。 几周前关于 Meta 等公司“算力过剩”以及超大规模云厂商削减支出的所有叙事……全是胡扯。 亚马逊财报对 AI 半导体交易非常看多。 AXTI： - AXT 计划在 2026 年将磷化铟(InP)产能翻倍，2027 年再翻倍。 - 预计这将使 AXT 成为“迄今为止全球最大的磷化铟生产商”——冲鸭。 - 第二季度营收为 4760 万美元，创 AXT 历史单季新高（来自数据中心应用的 InP 营收创纪录达 3070 万美元）。 - 营收环比增长 77%，同比增长 164%。 - InP 营收-产能目标：2026 年底每季度 6000 万美元。 - 2027 年底每季度 1.3 亿美元。 由于管理层表示他们将“寻找任何方式增加产能扩张”，1.3 亿美元的目标可能会进一步提高。 管理层称报告中的积压订单仍远高于 1 亿美元，但该数字已不能反映所有可用需求。 “无论我们增加产能的速度多快，客户需求持续超过供应。” 800G/1.6T 正在驱动当前周期，而 NPO/CPO 将其延伸至 2027 年之后。 此外，他们的目标是 50% 以上的毛利率：“我们绝对应该瞄准一个以五开头的数字。” 中国需求翻倍有余，且与 Casela、$COHR 和 $LITE 的协议并未实质性推动第二季度业绩。 这甚至还没有考虑我预测的随着 InP 衬底瓶颈加剧带来的巨大平均售价(ASP)上涨。 摘要： - 亚马逊算力需求过大，需要资本支出来满足，因此上游半导体起飞。 - AXT 是全球最大的 InP 衬底供应商，高毛利率，产能扩张，且供应跟不上需求。 看多来自亚马逊的需求端+资本支出。看多上游光通信供应链，因为需求过大。
英文原文
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
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调侃AXTI单日暴涨64%是美股常态。
@tsorfF7 $AXTI 今天 casually（随意地）涨了 64% 哈哈，你们的市场里这只是平常的一天。 https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
英文原文
@tsorfF7 $AXTI casually up 64% today lol, just a normal day in your markets. https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
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AXTI获两大光学巨头巨额产能预留订单，信号积极。
@wz2013 $AXTI 此前已与 $COHR 签订长期协议(LTA)，并支付了 2230 万美元的预留金。今天又与 $LITE 签订了 LTA，总计 8700 万美元（4350 万 + 4350 万）再次用于预留产能。考虑到这两家都是领先的光学玩家，这似乎是积极的信号。合同定价等具体细节尚不清楚，我们将拭目以待。
英文原文
@wz2013 $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment. As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity. Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive. The actual details such as pricing of the contracts aren't known, so we'll find out more.
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AXTI与Lumentum签InP衬底长协，Lumentum付4350万定金预留产能。
$AXTI 与 $LITE 就磷化铟(InP)衬底签署长期协议。Lumentum 同意支付 4350 万美元定金以预留产能。https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
英文原文
$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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博主确认仍持有AXTI，并提及早期标的EWY涨幅巨大。
@starlightrvrie 是的，我仍然持有 $AXTI。而且我早期的一些投资逻辑，比如 $EWY，已经上涨了百分之几百。即使我不再那么频繁地提及它们。
英文原文
@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent. Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore
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野村报告指出AXTI/IQE领先，InP衬底及外延片价格大幅上涨。
野村证券的报告引用 $AXTI 和 $IQE 作为领先玩家。 关于平均售价(ASP)更新： - 2英寸磷化铟(InP)衬底价格上涨 42-76% - 3英寸 InP 衬底价格上涨 78% - 2英寸有源层(EML)外延片价格上涨 50-75% - 3英寸连续波(CW)外延片价格上涨 ~40%+ - 中国国内价格较低，如 https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A 所示
英文原文
Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A
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AXTI与Coherent签3年晶圆协议，获2200万美元预付款。
$AXTI 与 $COHR 签署为期 3 年的晶圆协议。 “Coherent 将向 AXT-Tongmei 预付 22,288,500 美元，以换取承诺的供应产能。” https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96
英文原文
$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96
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指出AXTI股价暴涨伴随过度稀释，作者对此持谨慎态度。
@MosheFeins48329 在 $AXTI 从 13 美元涨到 140 美元的过程中，他们进行了大规模的流通盘扩张以及稀释。由于该方案已获批准，正如我之前提到的，如果存在针对散户投资者的过度稀释，我在谈论它时就不那么放心了。但我确实认为
英文原文
@MosheFeins48329 After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution. Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors. But I do think