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回顾$SIVE发布3个月涨1900%，称其为第二伟大论点。
自4月我在4瑞典克朗发布$SIVE多头论点以来，已正式过去3个月。 该标的目前涨幅约1900%…… 包括摩根大通(JPM)到富达(Fidelity)在内的许多美国机构才刚刚建仓。 这可能是我继$AXTI之后有史以来第二伟大的论点。 匿名者们，你们听进去了吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK. This idea is now up ~1900%… With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions. Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI . Did you listen anon?
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反思自己的投资风格：基于市场尚未理解的信息做判断。
我觉得我个人的投资风格有点不同，算是一些反思： 它本质上是自由裁量式的，基于市场还不知道的东西，也像是人生经历的综合结果。 如果你看 $AXTI、$RPI、$SIVE、$IQE 以及其他名字，很多其实是在猜测……
原推 ↗英文原文
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on
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称自己的瓶颈投资理论可能被历史研究，涉及AXTI/SOI/SIVE。
我在想，我的瓶颈投资理论…… 从 $AXTI 到 $SOI 再到 $SIVE，将来会不会被写进历史书研究？ 无论如何，我认为这里的每个人都是创造历史的一部分。 因为从路透社到机构再到各国，都在对 Serenity 引发的供应链博弈论作出反应。
原推 ↗英文原文
I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
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认为AAOI、SIVE、Foci、Shunsin当前风险收益最好。
- $AAOI 120亿美元 - $SIVE 20亿美元 - Foci 28亿美元 - Shunsin 20亿美元 在我看来，这些通常是目前最好的风险/回报。之前我的很多答案，比如 $AXTI，已经涨了10倍，所以这次阵容不同。 $AAOI 是因为产能爬坡带来的2027年上半年荒谬收入预测，正在做所有事情……
原推 ↗英文原文
- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything
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回顾AAOI/AXTI早期被FUD，如今类似CPO转折正在SIVE/Foci上重演。
当我在 $AAOI 约20-30美元做多时： 我以为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在为其 ASIC 项目认证特定光收发器。 结果它更可互换、更可大规模生产。 无论如何，很高兴我关于 $LITE、$AAOI、Innolight、$COHR、$AXTI 的 thesis 表现这么好。 记住：当 $AAOI 在20-30美元时，X 上所有人都说“管理层诈骗”…… 或者在 $AXTI 12美元时说“诈骗公司”。 FUD 非常极端。 现在感觉又像似曾相识……做多下一轮 CPO 架构转变，比如 $SIVE 或 Foci？然后收到同样评论。 我们会看看我的 CPO 多头是否会像 Shunsin 对 Innolight、或 $SIVE 对 $LITE 那样兑现。 无论如何，那些名字现在都已经上涨数百到数千个百分点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.
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认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
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从因AXTI在WSB被封到成为X订阅第一，像火影救赎线。
这条时间线：因为发 $AXTI 被 $RDDT WSB 封禁。 那只股票随后上涨数千个百分点。 然后我成为 X 上订阅人数第一的人，感觉有点像火影里成为火影的救赎弧线。 还差1.2万。
原推 ↗英文原文
This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI. That stock going up thousands of percent. Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage. Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl
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复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
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调侃AXTI和SIVE之后自己值得一部Netflix特别节目。
在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 之后，我觉得我值得拥有自己的 Netflix 特别节目？
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
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称SIVE仍极早，机构被动流入和NASDAQ上市将带来更多美国机构。
你听了吗，朋友？ $SIVE 还极其早期。 我们下周将首次看到大量机构流入（BlackRock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再叠加很快的 NASDAQ 上市，以及更多美国机构进入。 这就是处在 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类名字最早期时的感觉。 而且现在仍处在主要机构资本尚未进入流通盘、CPO 超级周期尚未爬坡之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
原推 ↗英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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复盘AXTI和InP衬底从15美元被质疑到成为分析师报告瓶颈。
回复 @doomdayer：谢谢！是的，当 $AXTI 和 InP 衬底还在15美元时，和那些毫无知识的随机散户争论总是很有趣。 然后它现在刚好出现在你们所有高盛/摩根大通分析师报告里，被列为瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge. Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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复盘AXTI从5亿美元市值到92亿美元，认为SIVE多头正体验类似早期AXTI。
5个月前，我给 $AXTI 的目标价是150美元。 相当于从5亿美元市值的当前水平上涨超过10倍。 它现在是92亿美元市值，股价140美元，只差10美元。 新的 $SIVE 多头开始意识到，待在 AXT 这样的名字里是什么感觉。 也说明我相当擅长猜测公司的内在估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV
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谈中国股票风险：政府可随意干预，因此即使喜欢LeaderDrive/Innolight也较少谈。
是的，完全正确。 这就是为什么很多中国股票被视为有放射性或“低估”，也是为什么我通常不太谈它们（即使我喜欢 LeaderDrive 和 Innolight）。 政府可以一时兴起摧毁或接管那里的任何业务。比如 $AXTI 始终有这种风险，中国政府永远是需要考虑的因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep that's completely right. This is the reason why a lot of Chinese equities are considered radioactive or "undervalued" + why I tend not to talk about them too much (even if I like leaderdrive + innolight) Government can nuke or takeover any business over there on a whim. $AXTI is always a risk for example, but Chinese gov is something that always need to be taken under consideration.
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吐槽RDDT社区缺乏技术素养，将AXTI误称为MU存储竞争对手。
？？？$RDDT 的智商字面上比 $IREN 投资者还低？ 我不是做了这么多 $AXTI 研究…… 只是为了让你们在它上面赚380%，然后把它叫成 $MU 存储竞争对手，再说它是骗局？ 缺乏技术素养正是我被那里封禁的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
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调侃对方常看自己炫耀AXTI。
回复 @labubu_trader：他们看我一半时间都在炫耀 $AXTI，一定挺有意思，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@labubu_trader They must have a fun time looking at my $AXTI showboating half the time lol
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用AXTI展示不只是10%收益。
人们真的在说，不要因为10%回报就怀疑我。 我向你呈现：$AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
People are really out there saying, don’t doubt me off 10% returns. I present to you: $AXTI https://t.co/1i5iXfWhz2
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称中国曾管制日本上游InP衬底以阻断西方AI光子供应链，建议美日反制。
回复 @TigerMeditation：兄弟，中国在1月我发 $AXTI 帖后，字面上对日本上游 InP 衬底实施出口管制，以阻断西方 AI 光子供应链。 也许美国/日本该用便宜内裤关税以外的方式反击了？
原推 ↗英文原文
@TigerMeditation Bro China literally export controlled Japan on upstream InP substrates back in Jan, after my $AXTI post, to halt Western AI photonic supply chains. Maybe it's time for US/Japan to fight back, in ways other than tariffs on cheap underwear??
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越频繁谈某主题，通常说明越认为它当前未知或低估。
回复 @johnoao：我越多谈某件事……通常说明我越认为它在当前时间框架中未知/低估。 不过它们方向上结果都不错？比如去年底以来的 $LITE、$AXTI、$AAOI、$NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
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预计明年会有很多关于FAU和组件瓶颈的文章，FOCI/Nextronics等会处于中心。
明年……我预计会有很多关于 FAU + 组件瓶颈的文章。 尤其是随着 $NVDA + $TSM 领导的新 CPO 架构开始放量。 然后今天我提到的 FOCI（约28亿美元市值）或 Nextronics（约2.46亿美元市值）等很多名字会处于中心。 尽管其中很多被贴上“商品”标签……（看看变压器/NAND）。 到时我会像 $AXTI 一样发一条“你听了吗，朋友”。 我们看看这是否正确。
原推 ↗英文原文
Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.
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称自己点出AI供应链国家级漏洞并做多AXTI，6个月后进入白宫短缺名单和中美贸易谈判。
我字面上点出了 AI 供应链中的国家级漏洞。 然后做多了 $AXTI 这个准垄断。 当时所有人都在质疑我。 猜怎么着，朋友：6个月后，它出现在白宫短缺清单上，并成为美中贸易谈判的主要议题之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain. Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI. While everyone was doubting me. Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. https://t.co/mVX0vJ5EuD
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炫耀组合大部分未实现收益并继续复利
有个事实：我组合里 70% 以上还是未实现收益，很多仓位我一股都没卖。 如果像 $AXTI 这种涨了 1900%+，$SIVE 涨了 1000%+，更大的集中仓位也有 $SOI 这种 300%+ 的回报，当然会轻松很多。 但总的来说，除了更晚才建仓的 thesis 名字，比如已经接近 100% 的 $HPS.A，整个组合基本都在三位数收益。 连新仓 Shunsin 现在都大概涨了 35%+。 我现在大概是 1.3x 到 1.4x 杠杆，仓位 96% 左右都是股票。之前我就用已经上涨的仓位去加杠杆，继续复利到别的机会里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: over 70%+ of my portfolio is unrealized, I haven't sold a single share in many of these. It helps if things like $AXTI hit 1900%+ returns, $SIVE hit 1000%+ returns, and everything larger in concentration hit 300% like $SOI. But basically entire portfolio is up triple digits aside from newer thesis names I've entered like $HPS.A which is getting close to 100%. Even Shunsin, which is new up 35%+ now or something. I'm on 1.3x-1.4x leverage right now, 96% or so shares only. I've been using previous positions that appreciated to compound more with others using margin.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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用 InP substrate 说明供应链控制应该瞄准上游
这次 $AXTI / InP substrate 出口管制正好说明： 特朗普的 America First 政策应该聚焦在保护欧洲、日本、韩国这些地方的供应链。 并且把它们武器化来对付中国。 单靠美国本身当然有筹码，但把日本、欧盟、韩国一起用起来，筹码会大得多。 如果让日本切断中国的人形机器人项目 / 上游化学品供应，再让欧盟切断中国的 photonics 项目： 他们会为了 substrates 和稀土让步。 你真正需要做的是掐住他们前沿产业发展的良率，或者直接卡制造这些组件的能力。 而不是只拿 40% 关税吓唬他们别再出口廉价商品。
原推 ↗英文原文
This $AXTI / InP substrate export controls is EXACTLY why: Trump's America 1st policies should focus around securing its supply chains over in EU/Japan/KR. And weaponizing it against China. US alone has leverage, but everyone together has extreme leverage. If you use Japan to cut off China's humanoid program / upstream chemicals and leverage EU to cut off China's photonics program: They'll bend for substrates and rare earths. You literally need to break their frontier industry development over yields or actually manufacturing the components. Not just threaten 40% tariffs to stop them from shipping cheap goods.
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把 AXTI / InP substrates 牵扯进中美谈判
天啊，聊天室里不会吧……真不敢信 $AXTI / InP substrates 真的成了中美和特朗普、习近平贸易谈判的一部分？ 我这个 thesis 完全押对了。 但说真的，日本应该开始切断像 Ulvac 这样的上游设备供应，优先针对中国的人形机器人产业；红磷供应也该像 Rasa / NCI 那样限制。 而美国应该施压欧盟，把那些被中国公司像 Robotechnik 买走的 photonic 垄断资产，比如 ficonTEC，收回来。
原推 ↗英文原文
LOL chat no way... Can't believe $AXTI / InP substrates really a major part of the China-US Donald Trump's trade talks with Xi? I got this thesis completely right. But really, Japan should start to cut off upstream machine supply like Ulvac for humanoids. And red phosphorus like Rasa/NCI to China, if they're not shipping. And US should pressure EU to take back their their photonic monopolies like ficonTEC that Chinese companies like Robotechnik managed to buy.
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看多FOCI，认为市场低估CPO瓶颈前景，类似去年AXTI。
@RayT168 对FOCI非常有信心，市场目前正在低估未来的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈，就像去年的$AXTI一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@RayT168 Pretty high conviction in FOCI, markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks right now just like $AXTI last year
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CPO市场将从零增长至910亿美元，欧洲、台湾、日本新玩家将主导CPO供应链变革。
人们好奇我为什么最近在关注非美国市场。 为什么？因为共封装光学(CPO)是我排名第一的主题性看多方向。 市场尚未意识到，光子学领域正经历一场突如其来的范式转变... 2025年，我是少数几个提前预判当前超级周期的人之一，当时买入的$AAOI约在$30、$LITE约在$300多、$AXTI约在$13...这些都是基于真实的业绩验证和其他人无法展示的thesis。 CPO市场将从约0增长到910亿美元的TAM机会。 高盛研究预计在未来1.5年内实现。 与此同时，整体光学市场将达到1540亿美元。 许多之前对当前光子学周期几乎没有任何敞口的企业： -> 欧洲企业拥有高端激光设计，如$SIVE或$SOI涉及衬底 -> 台湾企业如Foci (3363)、Nextronics (8147)、Shunsin (6451)等提供光学元件和代工服务 -> 日本企业涉及激光量产、衬底和化学品 突然之间成为了CPO的新主导力量。 至于美国玩家，目前敞口不大。但现有企业如$LITE、$COHR仍能从CPO中获得上涨空间，因为这是它们新的增长向量。 我对现有玩家的逆向思考： 他们的大部分估值已经反映了巨大的传统可插拔光学收入，而这些收入将不可避免地随时间被 cannibalize（ cannibalization蚕食），因此除非有人能利用杠杆，否则重新估值的空间有限。 许多新的纯CPO概念股会在H2 2026开始量产时从0到100极速增长（作为收入桥梁），然后进入H2 2027的规模化增长阶段（成为大规模增长驱动力）。 市场通常会在事件发生前8-12个月定价... 尽管在此期间市场可能出现波动，但我对自己的供应链研究在主题性方向上有高度信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
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强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
原推 ↗英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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AXTI 和 GOOGL 两个判断让自己在 X 上出名
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，我其实挺为这个感到骄傲。$AXTI 让我在 X 上出名。 我在 $GOOGL 150 美元时的判断，让我先在 $RDDT 上出了名，后来它又涨到了 400。 希望以后能有一篇关于青蛙的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, im proud of this one. $AXTI made me famous on X. My $GOOGL call at $150 made me famous on $RDDT before that just went up to $400. Hope to see one about a frog next
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回看自己对 InP 瓶颈时间点的判断
@Deebeeng10 太好了！我自己都不敢相信，我竟然把 InP substrate 何时会卡瓶颈的中期 2026 时间点都猜中了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Deebeeng10 Glad to hear! I can’t believe I even guess the mid 2026 timelines on when InP substrates would be bottlenecked lol
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坚持做多 AXTI 即便它会拖累光学链条
@deron0903 当然想过这个问题。但如果 $AXTI 下跌，和 $LITE 以及其他公司的光学扩产也会一起受影响。 所以我才觉得做多它是值得的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too. Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.
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回顾 AXTI 上涨 10 倍后的个人收益
@Abolct 我在一些 $AXTI 仓位上已经赚了大约 1766%，但在它涨 10 倍之后我就被封号了。 https://t.co/yrU1RmzNv7
原推 ↗英文原文
@Abolct I’m up like 1766% on some $AXTI positions but I got banned after it went up 10x https://t.co/yrU1RmzNv7
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再次验证 AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断
还记得我去年对 $AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断吗，anon？ IntelliEPI CEO（2026Q1 财报）： “Indium phosphide substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure.” Digitimes：Taiwan’s IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage 我当时就说，随着 photonics 放量，下一代 AI 架构全面转向光学后，InP 会出现重大瓶颈。 这是我关于 AXT 这个上游 chokepoint 最准确的一次判断。 我通常会比市场早几个月，但方向上经常会兑现。 当我已经在这些瓶颈里赚了 1800%+ 的时候，我现在又在做多 CPO，押下一个大超级周期。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical. This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint. I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally. While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.
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认为 AXTI 的上涨已主要由机构推动
@Berlinergy 现在他们还以为都是我一个人在推动……但考虑到 $AXTI 的市值已经 60 亿美元以上，行情主要还是机构在参与。 https://t.co/EajF4uIfNp
原推 ↗英文原文
@Berlinergy Even now they think it’s all me… movement is largely institutions at this point given $AXTI MC size is $6B+ https://t.co/EajF4uIfNp
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调侃“光子专家”对 AXTI 的评论
@meteoralp92 等你听听这位“photonics expert”对 $AXTI 的评论。 https://t.co/hWEO50KnLO
原推 ↗英文原文
@meteoralp92 Wait until you hear see this “photonics expert” commentary about $AXTI https://t.co/hWEO50KnLO
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回看当初看多 AXTI 时几乎全网唱反调
我就把这条关于 $AXTI 的内容留在这里。 当我在大约 13 美元发帖时，100% 的评论都是负面的。 而我后来在它涨了 10 倍之后也被封了。 https://t.co/6FrSXod6s8
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m just going to leave this here with $AXTI. 100% of the comments were negative when I posted at ~$13. And I got banned later after it went up 10 times. https://t.co/6FrSXod6s8
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观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
原推 ↗英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
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AXTI 突破 100 美元，自己最自豪的 thesis 之一
而且……$AXTI 现在已经超过 100 美元了，哪怕盘中跌 10% 也一样。 看到这个 thesis 这么顺利兑现，真的很酷。 我觉得这是我最自豪的一个判断……既押中了 2026 年 photonics 超级周期，也押中了最上游的 bottleneck。 https://t.co/eiYElTtWsE
原推 ↗英文原文
And... $AXTI is now over $100, even on a -10% drop. Cool to see this thesis play out so well. I think it's my proudest one... calling both the 2026 photonics supercycle as well as the most upstream bottleneck. https://t.co/eiYElTtWsE
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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认为 LITE 其实是在说 InP substrates 不够
我觉得这只是 $LITE 的公司措辞，意思其实就是： “我们没有足够的 InP substrates”。 还记得我去年说过，随着 photonics 放量，$AXTI 会继续作为关键瓶颈而增长吗？ https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
原推 ↗英文原文
I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for: “We don’t have enough InP substrates”. Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
原推 ↗英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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依旧认为 AXTI 是自己最传奇的 thesis
我还是觉得 $AXTI 是我最传奇的 thesis。 现在它接近 53 亿美元市值，我觉得没有什么能超过它。 https://t.co/eM3UCYsQAR
原推 ↗英文原文
Still think $AXTI was my most legendary thesis. Don’t think this will get beat by anything, now that it’s near ~$5.3B MC. https://t.co/eM3UCYsQAR
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认为Sivers处于CPO超级周期初期，类比当初的AXTI和LITE
你听了吗，匿名者？ 我们仍然处于Sivers CPO（共封装光学）超级周期的非常初期阶段，这仍然令人疯狂。 这就是我一直叫出的那些名字最初的感觉，比如$AXTI，过去一年涨幅超过6000%+。 仍然认为Sivers是下一个$LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? It’s still crazy we’re still only at the very beginning of a multi year CPO supercycle with $SIVE. This is what it feels like to be the very first to the names I’ve called out like $AXTI, up 6000%+ over the past year. Still think Sivers is the next $LITE. https://t.co/JdfMd7sNTK
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回怼把这些名字叫 meme stock 的人
@piques15 大家都说 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $SIVE 是“没有基本面的 meme stocks”，笑死。 然后 Goldman Sachs 就甩出这份神级预测。
原推 ↗英文原文
@piques15 Everyone kept saying $AXTI, $AAOI, and $SIVE were "memestocks with no fundamentals" lmfao. Then Goldman Sachs just drops this banger of projections.
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回顾自己提前抓住多轮超级周期
去年我提前点出了 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 和 Innolight…… 今年： 我找到了 $SOI，也就是 SiPH substrate，相当于 $AXTI。 然后又找到了 $SIVE，也就是 laser chokepoint。
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
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承认自己还持有 AXTI，即使已经巨亏后翻倍
@Ishaaaqq 回答这个问题时，我到现在还持有 $AXTI，即使它后面已经带来 1378% 的未实现收益。 https://t.co/yOxz7KGN9a
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ishaaaqq To answer that question I’m still holding positions like $AXTI even after 1378% unrealized gains later. https://t.co/yOxz7KGN9a
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回顾光子股大涨并感谢听从原始 thesis 的人
光子股起飞了。 $AXTI +17.34% $AAOI +12.47% 希望你听了我最早的 thesis，anon？ https://t.co/SCo3h80afN
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrrr $AXTI +17.34% $AAOI +12.47% Hope you listened to my original thesis anon? https://t.co/SCo3h80afN
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说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
原推 ↗英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
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AXTI 的上游与垂直一体化风险被低估
以当前估值推动 $AXTI 的主要是机构；做空它的散户很可能会大错特错。 如果 AXT 因出口管制而下跌，整个光子业务扩张也会受影响。（例如 AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite）而且更值得担心的是别的问题。 如果把 AXT 10 多个上游合资企业单独拆成一家纯西方商社，它从战略角度看，价值可能会比 5N 还高。 另外，营收数字有误导性，因为这些是 TTM 合同，不是新签合同。像 7n 高纯铟这类上游材料，相比去年价格已经大涨。 这条供应链是垂直整合的，所以可能会像 NAND 一样，在有限基板下出现涨价；但不同于住友，AXT 除了少数环节（比如红磷）之外几乎包揽了整条供应链。 所以它比你想的更危险。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s majority institutions moving $AXTI at these valuations, retail shorts might turn out terribly wrong. If AXT goes down from export controls the photonics buildout does too. (Eg. AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite) and there are bigger problems to worry about. If you just split out AXT’s 10+ upstream JVs into one merchant Western company it would probably be worth more strategically than 5N. Also revenue numbers are misleading since these are TTM contracts, not new ones signed. All the upstream materials like 7n high purity indium has spiked immensely since last year. It’s all vertically integrated so there might be a NAND style price hike off limited substrates, but unlike Sumitomo, AXT does the entire supply chain minus a few like red phosphorus. So it’s more dangerous than you think.
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不建议做空 AXTI
我不是说 $AXTI 现在是值得买入的标的。 我只是说别做空它，因为它们（以及中国）在整个美国超大规模云厂商所需流程里，实际上处于功能性垄断地位。 而且如果他们通过涨价进行反制，事情可能会变得非常糟。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bc1aa1fa3932407 I'm not saying $AXTI is a good buy at these levels. I'm just saying not to short it because they (and China) are a functional monopoly over this entire process required by US hyperscalers. And it could go very wrong if they weaponize through price hikes.
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AXTI 不只是 InP 基板那么简单
散户空头真的不该碰 $AXTI。 我一直看到有人把 $AXTI 误解成只有 “InP 基板”，总是拿住友来对比，但我一直没出声。 这是错的。 它们实际上掌握了整个 InP 供应链 40% 以上，这也是机构愿意给它们融资的原因。 它们握有很多卡点，不只是 InP 基板。 正如海湾地区那样，削减大约 20% 的供应就会是灾难；如果再叠加另外 3-4 个卡点，后果更严重。 -> 所有原材料（铟、镓、锗）。 Vital 和 $AXTI（自有、金美）与中国公司一起构成寡头；而西方的 5N 等只占很小一部分份额。 由于中国（Vital、AXT）掌握多数份额。 -> pBN 坩埚卡点： $AXTI 也是另一个巨大的卡点（博宇）。还有信越/摩根等少数玩家，但这又是精炼层面的一个瓶颈。 InP 基板： $AXT / 住友在这里是双寡头，JX、$COHR 只占很小比例。 这里面还有很多其他工艺（比如红磷）处于中间环节（例如日本化学/理沙）。 这是一个材料问题。 $COHR 不能在没有 AXT 控制的所有上游材料和精炼环节的情况下，直接做出 InP 基板。 如果 $LITE 的 CEO 因为 InP 基板睡不着觉，那么 50 亿美元估值对维持西方超大规模云厂商的建设上线来说根本不算什么。 日本的上游材料正在被出口管制，而 AXT 把这些都牢牢握在手里。 所以总的来说：我看到很多空头把事情混同成 “只是 InP 基板” 了。 实际上是所有铟、镓 -> 精炼加工 -> pBN 坩埚，再到最终由它们与住友共同完成的 InP 基板生产过程。 如果 Vital 和多个上游卡点停止供货，下游西方 InP 基板厂商就会受影响。 AXTI 会变成一个小型垄断。 估值来自掌控整条供应链，而不只是连机构分析师都搞不懂的 “InP 基板制造”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI. I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment. This is wrong. They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them. They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates. As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints. -> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium). Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share. Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority. -> pBN Crucible chokepoints: $AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers. InP substrates: $AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage. There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle. This is a materials problem. $COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls. If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online. Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive. So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating. It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo. if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers. AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly. The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.
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先看完财报再说 AXTI
@OperationATM 我还在看财报，过一会儿再看 $AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@OperationATM Still going through the earnings, will look at $AXTI in a bit.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
原推 ↗英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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材料和封装要分开看
它们都处在供应链的不同层级。$AXTI 生产的是光子相关一切所需的材料。我手里还是有 AXT 仓位。 如果超大规模云厂商垂直整合带来一些细节变化，封装层的玩家可能会受影响。 但直接卖掉任何激光或上游玩家都没什么道理，对一些人来说反而是不错的买点。
原推 ↗英文原文
They're all different parts of the supply chains. $AXTI makes the materials needed for anything to do with photonics. I still have my AXT positions. Packaging layer players might be impacted given nuances of hyperscaler vertical integration. But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.
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光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
原推 ↗英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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AXTI 又回来了
@offermemoneyXYZ 对，我之前在 $AXTI 上也有点回撤，不过很高兴它又回到 1057% 的收益了…… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
原推 ↗英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Yeah, I was down a bit on $AXTI but glad it’s back at 1057% gains… https://t.co/VU9achD3MW
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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改变对Soitec的看法建仓，看好CPO赛道和NVDA催化剂，认为有3倍空间
改变了对Soitec（$SLOIF）的看法，建了一个可观的仓位，成本约43美元，布局CPO（共封装光学）。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学和这种架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO的基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的估值溢价，加上垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法交易员和分析师可能对市场份额感到困惑，但这家公司在SOI基板上实际上是垄断地位，因为他们授权给其他厂商如信越化学是为了多元化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（更不用说大多数人可能还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期以及下周$NVDA GTC催化剂的全部上涨空间。 我个人认为从这里能有3倍的涨幅，所以我做多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tnglxn4 是 https://t.co/iBUxmlcYVj
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这是卡点，不是短缺
这些是横跨多年超级周期的卡点，不是瓶颈。 $AXTI、$SNDK 符合瓶颈的定义。 但像玻璃核心或者 DFB 激光这类东西，应该能穿越 2028 年，而这就是光子学或先进封装架构变化带来的下一轮量产爬坡的开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
These are chokepoints over multiple year supercycles not bottlenecks. $AXTI, $SNDK fit the definition of a bottleneck. But stuff like glass core or dfb lasers should scale past 2028 and this is the beginning of the next volume ramp from architectural shifts in photonics or advanced packaging.
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别盲目跟单
我真心佩服有一位朋友靠 copy trade 一路做到管理对冲基金。 但请不要盲目复制我谈到的东西，比如 $AXTI 或 $LPK。 这也是我一直没做 copy-trading app、也不告诉大家我什么时候卖出的主要原因。 我只是想在自己的旅程里，免费持续发布有趣的想法 / 研究。 目标是帮助你们把复杂信息整合起来，建立自己的 thesis / conviction。 不过，我还是很乐意免费分享我的想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed one of you copy traded your way into managing a hedge fund. But please don’t blindly copy stuff I talk about like $AXTI or $LPK. That’s the main reason I haven’t done copy-trading apps or tell people when I sell. I just want to publish interesting thoughts / research for free as I go along my journey. With the goal of helping you all synthesize complex information to build your own thesis/conviction. Happy to help share my thoughts for free though.
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AAOI 和 AXTI 也走对了
我之前发过 $AAOI 从 30 美元到 65 美元再到 80 美元的看法。现在已经到 150 美元了。 $AXTI 也是一样，如果你三个月前问我，这 5 只名字里每一个都会不一样。AXT 现在也从 12 美元涨到 82 美元。 我是说，市场总会变，名字也会变。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was posting about $AAOI $30 -> $65 -> $80. It's now $150. Same thing with $AXTI, if you asked me three months ago, all 5 names would be different. AXT is now $82 from $12. I see valuations as elevated, but I'm still personally holding. I really think they're all compelling long term, I'm just talking about shorter-term entry points.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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不想做跟单秀
@itsakek 我不是 Enplas 或 Win Semi 那类第一时间就有仓位的人，所以不会发那种“你听到了吗，匿名网友？”的帖子。 如果我的 thesis 本身是独特的，比如 $RPI 或 $AXTI，那我就会去表达胜利感。
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsakek I’m not first to Enplas or stuff like Win Semi, so not going to do a did you listen anon? Type post. If my thesis is originally unique like $RPI or $AXTI I’m going to victory lap a lot on the way up.
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原始 thesis 帖的反讽
还有件事挺好笑的： “如果你把 1 万美元投进 ____，今天会变成 ____！” 结果那些全都是我最早发 thesis 帖的股票，从 $AXTI 到 $IQE。 再等 6 个月，你大概又会在 $SIVE 和我其他关于卡点的 thesis 帖里看到同样的情况。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s still funny that there’s so many: “If you invested $10K into ____ you would have ____ today!” Then they’re all the stocks I was the original thesis poster on from $AXTI to $IQE. Wait 6 months and you’ll probably see the same thing with $SIVE and my other bottleneck thesis posts.
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这是基于已确认协议的映射
@crux_capital_ 这就是基于已确认协议做的供应链映射。 $GOOGL 不会在新闻稿里突然跑出来说它的上游基板供应商是 $AXTI。 我在上面的说法里会用“很可能”这样的词，哪怕对第一轮量产周期来说几乎已经是板上钉钉。
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping off confirmed agreements. $GOOGL won’t go out and randomly say in a press releases their upstream substrate provider is $AXTI. I use words like likely in my statements above even though it’s near certain for the first production cycles
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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HPS.A 已经涨很多
$HPS.A 自从我两周前发 thesis 以来已经涨了 21%。 可惜不是所有东西都能像 $AXTI 那样每两周涨 100%？ 如果变压器瓶颈真的会持续很多年…… 有时候还是要等市场把这些定价进去。 $AEHR 或 $AAOI 那种几周内就三位数的涨幅，可能把预期拉得太高了…… 10% 年化回报在市场里通常就已经不错了？ 目前它涨了 21%，但还有人问这算不算好，我还是希望它将来继续走出三位数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
$HPS.A is up 21% since my thesis 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, not everything can go up 100% every 2 weeks like $AXTI? If the transformers bottleneck is that extreme for multiple years… Sometimes it’s better to wait for markets to price that in. $AEHR or $AAOI triple digit rallies in few week timeframes probably set unrealistic expectations… Even 10% return yearly is usually good in markets? This has been 21% so far and I have comments asking if this is still good, but I’m hoping it’s another triple digit return in due time.
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回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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说自己只是想看 AXTI 还能涨多高。
@RayBraha 我不需要啊？我只是好奇 $AXTI 还能涨到多高，也想看看我的 thesis 怎么兑现。
原推 ↗英文原文
@RayBraha I don’t need to? I’m just curious how high $AXTI can go and I want to see how my thesis play out.
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说自己在 AXTI 上已经浮盈 1000%。
只是世界想让我在 $AXTI 上实现 1000% 的未实现收益而已。 这大概是我到现在为止最传奇的一篇 thesis。 https://t.co/WR6Fq1Vyez
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s just that the world wanted me to reach 1000% unrealized gains on $AXTI. My most legendary thesis to date. https://t.co/WR6Fq1Vyez
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说自己在 AXTI 上只剩 720% 浮盈。
@Investmnt_Eagle 我现在在 $AXTI 上只剩一个 720% 的未实现收益。 我本来想要 1000%，所以就自己继续拿着。看看股东投票结果会怎样。 https://t.co/k5Fv95deSA
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle I’m just sitting on a small 720% unrealized gain on $AXTI. Wanted 1000% so just holding personally. We’ll see how the shareholder vote turns out https://t.co/k5Fv95deSA
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说 IQE 可能很快会超过 AXTI 的传奇 thesis。
我对 $IQE 的判断……可能很快就会超过我那篇传奇的 $AXTI thesis？ 才过了 2 个月： 现在在机构开始公开买入后，涨幅已经超过 +316%，而且还在继续涨。 欧洲那边像 $ALRIB、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这种关键瓶颈股最近也很有意思。 我觉得它们从现在开始大概率还会再复合出三位数涨幅，即使已经涨了一大截。 散户这还是第一次这么早。 所以，预计很快会有大量机构资金涌入这些关键供应链公司，尤其是 $SIVE，等 NASDAQ 上市之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It’s only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up. Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe. Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies. Retail is just extremely early for the first time. So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.
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说对高税的办法就是赚得更多。
@miraclemaster07 对，税确实高。不过我的理念就是把短期资本利得税赚回来。 如果你赚了 20 倍，又被征 50% 的税，你最后还是能赚到原始投入的 10 倍。 如果你一直拿着同一笔多头，而它只涨 20%，那反而更差。
原推 ↗英文原文
@miraclemaster07 Yeah unfortunately taxes are high. But my philosophy is just outearn short term capital gains tax. If you make 20 times and get taxed 50% you still make 10 times your original investment. If you stay in the same long and it just goes up 20% that's worse.
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指出 Nippon Chemical 是 photonics AI 供应链关键材料商。
@Jornka329996 哦，那家是 Nippon Chemical Industries，市值 1.69 亿美元；如果把它打掉，整个 photonics 方向的 AI buildout 都会被扰乱。 因为它是生产 InP 衬底所需红磷的第一供应商，而这些衬底又要用在 $AXTI、Sumitomo 和 JX 里。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Oh it was Nippon Chemical Industries at $169m, if you take down that company it disrupts the entire AI buildout with photonics. Since its the #1 supplier of red phosphorus needed to make inp substrates at $AXTI, Sumitomo, and JX.
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认为市场只是发现了一个 AI 基础设施脆弱点。
@beauty_oe 没办法啊！这只是单纯的信息发现和整合，市场自己后来才意识到而已。 我发帖的时候它还按 0.5 倍市净率交易，所以就算涨了 80%，也只是回到 1 倍市净率而已…… 而且那还是整个 AI 基础设施构建链条里的一个重大脆弱点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe 仕方ないじゃん！ 単なる情報の発見と統合で、市場がそれに気づいただけだよ。 私が投稿した時はPBR0.5倍で取引されてたから、たとえ80%上がったってやっとPBR1倍に戻るだけだし… しかもそれって、AIインフラ構築全体における重大な脆弱性でもあったりするんだよね。
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说自己最早把 AXTI 和 photonics 瓶颈联系起来。
@Kelvinccccccccc 也许是因为没人知道吧？ 我是最早把 $AXTI 和 photonics 瓶颈联系起来的人之一。 而 NCI 是更小众、位于上游的红磷供应商，而这些红磷又是制造 InP 衬底所必需的。 所以它其实是“瓶颈里的更瓶颈”的那种存在。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Kelvinccccccccc Maybe because nobody knew about it? I was one of the first people to point out $AXTI in relation to photonics bottlenecks. And NCI is an even more the niche upstream red phosphorus supplier needed to make InP substrates. So the even more unknown bottleneck of a bottleneck.
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说日本出口管制能反制中国的红磷供应。
$AXTI 确实依赖像 NCI 这样的公司，所以中国的 AI 供应链实际上会被日本卡住。 所以我希望日本能在高纯红磷上用出口管制把中国反制回去，算是对 Jan 当年出口管制的回敬。 不过中国也在提升本土产能，但目前还不够。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI does rely on companies like NCI, so China's AI supply chains would actually get bottlenecked by Japan. So I hope Japan export controls China back on high purity red phosphorus as payback for Jan's export controls. China is scaling up domestic capacity though but it's still not enough yet.
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用 1.69 亿美元撬动西方 hyperscaler 供应链。
Serenity 指南： 如何只用 1.7 亿美元就让西方 hyperscaler buildout 变得更脆弱。 只要用 1.69 亿美元拿下 Nippon Chemical（4092）！ 做 InP 衬底需要：铟和高纯磷。 你以为 $AXTI 是瓶颈？NCI 才是瓶颈里的瓶颈。 NCI 实际上是高纯红磷卡点的领头羊，份额大约 26-27%（Rasa 更少，其余就是中国）。 而且它们向 $AXTI、Sumitomo、JX 供应这些材料，用来做 InP 衬底。 所以……如果你拿出 1.6 亿美元收购 NCI（再加上 Rasa 作为更小产能），你就能移除西方世界生产 6N/7N 红磷、也就是制造 InP 衬底所需的主力产能！ 没有 InP 衬底：就没有 photonics。 有趣的是：中国科技公司其实也会被 NCI 打乱。 对 $AXTI 来说，这个映射 / 依赖关系其实非常有意思： - AXT 的 Tongmei 在 STAR Market 上市时就披露过，它在结构上依赖从日本进口高纯前驱体材料 - WITS 数据显示，大约 460 美元 / 公斤的高纯磷正从日本流向中国 所以它们确实在暗中依赖 NCI。 中国虽然也有 Wylton Chemical、Qin Xi New Materials、Jinding Electronics、Chuxiong Chuanzhi、Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials 这类产能。 但这些都还是更小的玩家，没法在规模化 InP 衬底生产上替代 NCI 提供的高纯红磷产能。 $LITE 的 CEO 之前就说过 InP 衬底让他夜不能寐。 所以现在有了 NCI，你就能让他永久失眠？ 只要 1.69 亿美元。 所以供应链大概是这样： -> DGC 磷矿开采后运给 NCI -> NCI 把黄磷精炼成高纯红磷 -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT 把红磷和铟熔合，长成 InP 衬底 -> $COHR / $LITE 把 InP 衬底做成激光器 -> Innolight / Fabrinet 把它们封装成 800G / 1.6T 收发器 -> $NVDA / $GOOGL 用在 ASIC / GPU 集群里。 基本上，整个西方都依赖 NCI 来制造用于 photonics 的 InP 衬底。 我持有一点很小的仓位，纯属好玩。不过日本并不以随意提价著称。 所以如果你真的买下这家公司然后把价格抬高 15000%（比如政府意识到后把公司收回去），大概率会碰到监管问题，比如 FEFTA…… 也许提价 30-50% 还能压缩一下 forward P/E？但大概率不会最后变成 $AXTI 那样。 不管怎样，这家公司按大概 1.6 亿美元市值定价，本身就是一个巨大的国家安全风险。 至于基本面，它们市净率 0.54、forward P/E 11.4，所以其实也可能是被低估了。 TLDR： -> 它是下一个 $AXTI 吗？不是。 -> 它是不是西方 hyperscaler buildout + photonics 里一个未知的结构性瓶颈和关键漏洞？是。 -> 还有没有重估空间？ 只要回到 1 倍市净率，立刻就有 80-85% 的上涨空间。如果再给它更高的 forward P/E，可能更多。 总之，用 1.69 亿美元找到 hyperscaler 供应链里的一个主要失效点，挺好玩的。
原推 ↗英文原文
A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing - WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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说光子和瓶颈的 TAM 预估都被低估了。
@Blinklebloop 光子和各种瓶颈的 TAM 预测都大错特错。 就像分析师说 $AXTI 的 InP 衬底 TAM 只有 1.25 亿美元一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop TAM projections are all way off for photonics and chokepoints/bottlenecks. The equivalent of analysts saying $AXTI InP substrate TAM is $125m.
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说机构在高位买入说明 thesis 本身是成立的。
如果 thesis 本身不扎实，Point72 和其他机构就不会在历史高位买入。 每个人都想找下一个 10 倍股，而当我终于用 $AXTI 或 $IQE 这样的名字把它指出来时，很遗憾，总有人会拿市值或粉丝数来试图削弱原始 thesis。
原推 ↗英文原文
Point 72 and other institutions would not be buying at ATHs if the thesis were not fundamentally sound. Everyone wants to find the next 10x, and when I finally point it out with names like $AXTI or $IQE, it's unfortunate so many people try and undermine the original thesis by citing MC/follower count.
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担心味之素被激进股东逼涨 ABF 价格。
天啊，我真的希望 Ajinomoto 不要向这些激进股东让步。 WSJ 终于把旧消息翻出来了： “Palliser 入股 Ajinomoto，要求 ABF 价格上涨 30%+”（这是个关键卡点） 是的，我也对 $AXTI 做过类似的事……但那是美国 / 中国的问题，所以还算可以。 这也是为什么没人去照搬同样的剧本去对日本公司下手。 试图用西方对冲基金的掠夺式涨价来改变日本文化，是不被鼓励的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy ****, I really hope Ajinomoto doesn’t give into these activist shareholders. WSJ finally broke older news that: “Palliser Takes Stake in Ajinomoto, Urges 30%+ ABF Price Increase” (major chokepoint) Yeah, I did the same with $AXTI … but that’s US/China so it’s okay. There’s a reason why nobody copied that same playbook for Japanese companies. Trying to change Japanese culture with Western hedge fund predatory price hikes is not encouraged.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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回顾自己挖到 IQE 的大涨机会，并表示下一只 10 倍股候选还在验证。
我挖到 $IQE 这只票真的做得挺猛的？又是一个巨大的三位数收益。 今天上涨了 23%+。 我之前说过，下一个像 $AXTI 那样的 10 倍股，可能会是 $AAOI、$IQE 或 $SIVE 中的一个。 我们看看最后是谁赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
I cooked pretty hard finding $IQE? Another massive triple digit gain. Up 23%+ today. I said earlier that next $AXTI 10x would be either $AAOI, $IQE, or $SIVE. We'll see which one ends up winning. https://t.co/v8rAHL8Wjk
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说自己持有的 AXTI 涨了很多，因此难以接受 SOI 表现落后。
@frsinvesting 是啊……我手里的 $AXTI 仓位已经涨了 770%，所以很难相信 $SOI 会表现差这么多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah.. my $AXTI positions are up 770% so can’t believe $SOI was underperforming by so much https://t.co/9cqcOnwnYg
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承认 Soitec 近月涨幅一般，在光子学篮子里表现落后。
抱歉各位，Soitec（$SOI）自上个月以来只涨了 39.28%。 不幸的是，它在我的光子学组合里是表现落后的那只。 不可能每一只都像 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 那样隔月就翻三位数。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry everyone, Soitec ( $SOI ) is only up 39.28% since last month. Unfortunately, they were an underperformer in my photonics basket. Not everything can go up triple digits every other month like $AXTI or $AAOI. https://t.co/OwlOzugf68
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调侃要多少只三位数股票才够“逃离下层阶级”。
@0xInitialAce 你还需要多少只三位数涨幅的股票，才能逃离“下层阶级”？ 感觉 $AAOI 4 倍、$AXTI 5 倍、$AEHR 2 倍、$IQE 2 倍、$LITE 2 倍，再加上别的，应该已经够了吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
@0xInitialAce How many more triple digit stocks do you need to escape the underclass? Feels like $AAOI 4x, $AXTI 5x, $AEHR 2x, $IQE 2x, $LITE 2x, and others should be enough?
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抱怨版主不喜欢 AXTI 上涨，并回忆 RKLB 相关帖子被删。
@Ud197601 @KRock1287 是啊，版主们不喜欢 $AXTI 涨价，更不喜欢散户真的赚钱。 你们应该看看我第一次发 $RKLB 跌破 24 美元时的情况，那些帖子一直被删，我还因此被临时封禁，结果它后来又涨了 200%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ud197601 @KRock1287 Yep, mods don’t like $AXTI going up in price and people actually making profits. Should have seen the first time when I posted $RKLB sub $24 and those posts kept getting removed + got temp banned before it rose 200%. https://t.co/odczv2uDXm
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把 VNP 视为 AXT 供应链替代方案。
@lamottown 我喜欢把 $VNP 当成 AXT 供应链的替代标的，这个名单只限美国，而 5n 是加拿大上市公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@lamottown I like $VNP as the AXT supply chain alternative, this is a US only list + 5n is a Canadian listed company.
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因发帖被封，抱怨版主不允许普通人赚钱，却鼓励高风险亏损。
我因为发了关于 $AXTI 的帖子被 subreddit 封了，所以有点火大。 版主们不喜欢一只股票从 15 美元涨到 70 美元、散户真的赚到钱；但他们却鼓励大家把毕生积蓄砸进 0dte 的 $PLTR 期权。 Reddit 是最大的社交媒体之一，但也是审查和回音室最严重的地方之一，尽管做长线持有还是很赚钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Got banned from the subreddit after posting about $AXTI so a little salty. Mods didn’t like it when a stock goes from $15 to $70 and retail actually makes money. But they encourage everyone to lose their life savings on 0dte $PLTR options. Reddit is one of the biggest social media sites for censorship + echo chambers, albeit very profitable as a long.
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等待 14 号 $AXTI 的后续变化。
@broadway2023 我在等 14 号 $AXTI 会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
@broadway2023 I’m waiting to see what happens on the 14th with $AXTI
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抱怨高粉账号收费昂贵，却又批评免费分享的 alpha。
我已经受够了那些 10 万以上粉丝的账号——他们一年收 2000 多美元，只是为了让你看他们选了什么票…… 然后又会对那些免费分享从 $AAOI 到 $AXTI 这些名字的人感到不爽…… 还会用去年营收去评判 $AEHR 或 $SIVE，却完全不理解 2027 年的 CPO / SiPh 放量。 感觉这些账号终有一天会被慢慢淘汰，因为大家会意识到，alpha 可以免费拿，不必花几千美元去买。
原推 ↗英文原文
Getting tired of 100K+ follower accounts that who charge $2,000+ a year just to see their stock picks… That then get frustrated over someone who shares names from $AAOI to $AXTI for free… And then judge $AEHR or $SIVE by previous year revenue without understanding CPO/SiPH ramp in 2027. Feels like these accounts will get eroded over time as people realize they can get alpha for free instead of paying thousands for it.
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在斯坦福顺路停留，并开玩笑说要问 Jensen 关于 SIVE 和 AXTI。
X 上的人都在聊 CS 153 Frontier Systems…… 本来有些人想让我过去，所以我就顺路去了斯坦福。 也许之后可以问问 Jensen 关于 $SIVE 和 $AXTI 的事。有人想问 ElevenLabs 的 CEO 什么问题吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone on X kept talking about CS 153 Frontier Systems... Some folks wanted me to come so stopped by Stanford. Maybe ask Jensen about $SIVE and $AXTI later. Anyone have questions for Elevenlabs CEO? https://t.co/rBtYYV4aHc
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强调 AXTI 仍是 InP 衬底和原材料瓶颈，但增发投票让市场紧张。
@Andres17G $AXTI 仍然是 InP 衬底以及制造这些衬底所需精炼 / 前驱材料的巨大瓶颈。 眼下最大的问题是 14 号的股东投票要把可流通股增加 5000 万股，这让很多人很紧张。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Andres17G $AXTI is still a massive massive massive bottleneck for inp substrates and especially the refining/precursors needed to make them. Main issue is 14th shareholder vote on 50M share increase that's putting people on edge.
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总结 AXT、TSEM、SIVE、COHR、SOI 在各自瓶颈中的位置。
$AXTI 是瓶颈。 $TSEM 现在还不是，但我预计它在未来一两年里产能也会被打满。 $SIVE 即将进入 CW 激光周期。 $COHR 什么都做，EML 这块是强项，但在其他一些东西上就不是。 $SOI 严格来说不完全是瓶颈，但它在 SOI 衬底上是垄断地位，而这些衬底对 SiPh 和 CPO 都是必需的，所以这会让所有相关产品都带来显著的营收增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is a bottleneck. $TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two. $SIVE upcoming with CW lasers. $COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no. $SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.
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认为大规模增发会很掠夺性，若通过就会清仓 AXTI。
@LeaderInvests 那种行为就是掠夺性操作，尤其是增发规模这么大。 如果它通过，我会把自己手里的每一份 $AXTI 都卖掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LeaderInvests That’s called being predatory, especially with the share issuance size. I’m dumping every $AXTI position I have if it passes.
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区分正常融资和会直接摊薄股东权益的疯狂增发。
@BitcoinAIGuy 通过像 Northland 那样融个 1 亿美元和把流通股直接翻倍、像 $AXTI 或 $IREN 那样把股东权益稀释掉，这两者是完全不同的。 至少 AXT 这次还得经过股东投票。IREN 的 ATM 还在继续。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy There’s a difference between raising capital like $100m from Northland. Then getting your equity wiped out by doubling the float with $AXTI or $IREN. At least with AXT it’s a shareholder vote. IREN ATM is ongoing.
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解释 AXTI 增发提案的稀释幅度，认为若通过会对股价不利。
如果你在关心 $AXTI： 它在这条新的潜在稀释消息出来后跌了 21%。 董事会想再增加 5000 万股（最高可稀释到 20 亿美元级别），要在 14 号的股东投票里决定。 也就是从 7000 万股增加到 1.2 亿股。 我对 $IREN 那种 60 亿美元过度稀释也是同样看法，而我持有的 AXT 这份价格提案也是一样。 我不会“相信管理层会明智使用”这些股份，而且这份文件本身就是个危险信号。 不过话说回来，我们就看 14 号会发生什么。如果它通过了这 5000 万股的新增授权稀释，我个人不会继续持有。 但如果它没通过，我预计会反弹。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re curious about $AXTI: It’s down 21% on the new potential dilution news. Board wanted to add 50M more shares (up to $2B worth to dilute) for shareholders vote in the 14th. 70m -> 120m shares. I say this about $IREN excessive $6B dilution and it’s the same with AXT price proposal that I hold. I would not “trust in management” to use it wisely and the fact it’s filed is a red flag. That being said: we’ll see what happens on the 14th. If it passes for 50m more share authorized dilution, I personally would not hold. But it fails, I expect a recovery.
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回顾钨等关键材料因出口管制和战争而暴涨。
哦……谁能在一月份就想到钨会这么重要？ “中东战争期间，钨价飙升 557%” 肯定不是像 $ALM 这种公司，它在中国出口管制后，过去 3 个月涨了 75%。 如果你还在找其他需要留意的贵金属 / 关键材料： 铟、铋、碲、钼、锂、锑、镓、锗和石墨……都被列入了出口管制名单。 不幸的是，我自己一直在 $AXTI 上，主要是铟、镓和锗相关的敞口，今年至今也就涨了 215%。 不过，在供应链恐慌期间，还有很多更重要的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Oh... who could have thought Tungsten would be important back in January? "Tungsten Price Soars 557% Amid War in Middle East" Certainly not companies like $ALM up 75% this past 3 months after China's export controls. If you're looking for other precious materials to look out for: Indium, Bismuth, Tellurium, Molybdenum, Lithium, Antimony, Gallium, Germanium, and Graphite... were all named in exports controls. Unfortunately, I've been in $AXTI which mainly centered around indium, gallium, and germanium, only up 215% YTD. But, there's a lot more important companies out there during the supply chain panic.
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吐槽 Roundhill 把 AXTI 和 AAOI 加进 meme basket。
@veggiepoultry @roundhill Bro，@roundhill 把 $AXTI 和 $AAOI 加进那个 meme basket 里，真的有点坑我。 不过我觉得加了这两只之后，它反而会跑赢。哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@veggiepoultry @roundhill Bro @roundhill did me dirty adding $AXTI and $AAOI to that meme basket. But I think it will outperform with those new additions lol.
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作者对被Bezinga称为Meme交易员表示不满，强调自己研究AI供应链并非投机。
今天我因为之前嘲笑Jim Cramer而被Bezinga报道了。他们引用了我的话：「谢谢拯救了$MSFT，Jim」。但他们在标题里叫我「Meme交易员」……我还不知道我在AI供应链瓶颈上从$AXTI到$LITE的所有多头都是meme股？不过我一直很感谢新闻报道……特别是像Bezinga上关于Cramer或Yahoo Finance上关于Burry的评论。
原推 ↗英文原文
I got cited by Bezinga today after I made fun of Jim Cramer. They included my quote: “Thanks for saving $MSFT Jim”. But in the title they called me a Meme Trader… I didn’t know all my longs in AI supply chain bottlenecks from $AXTI to $LITE were memes? Always appreciate the news coverage though… especially if it’s comments around Cramer on Bezinga or Burry on Yahoo Finance.
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称自己掌握了很多供应链漏洞，但不会公开所有细节。
我到处都映射了很多供应链漏洞。我觉得有些最好还是不要公开，因为那只会把国家安全风险暴露出来。 不过我还是决定拿 $AXTI 来玩一下……如果碰上日本出口管制，结果可能就没那么好了。 所以啊，有些东西我不会提，但如果我有一些核心想法，而且它们是不错的多头，我还是会尽量公开出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mapped a ton of supply chain vulnerabilities here and there. I think it's better not to share some since it would just spotlight national security risks. Decided to have some fun with $AXTI though... it might not have turned out as well with Japan export controls. So yeah, there's some I don't mention but any core ideas I have I try and publish them if they're good longs.
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表示自己经历过加密市场，所以能更坦然看待波动，并相信信息公开是正和的。
很高兴听到这些正向反馈！ 我在 2016-2018 年左右也混过加密市场，所以现在 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 这种 +20% / -20% 的波动对我来说已经没什么感觉了。训练心态这方面确实很有帮助，让我面对一天跌 60% 也能稳住。 我相信股票是正和的……所以没必要把信息藏起来。 信息发现 / 整合本来就能让所有人受益，但在过去，信息获取通常一直在帮倒忙，因为机构会卡着不让散户看到，直到某些东西已经涨了 1000% 之后才放出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear the positive feedback! Yeah I was in the crypto market around 2016-2018, so any +20% -20% volatility now with $AXTI or $AAOI feels like nothing. So it's definitely helped train my mentality stuff drop 60% in a day. I believe stocks are positive sum... so there's no reason to try and hide information. Everyone benefits from information discovery/synthesis, but before access to information has worked largely worked against retail given gatekeeping from institutions until after somethings gone up 1000%.
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认为自己在 X 前就表现不错，最近看好的标的上涨说明思路对了。
@kevstern1 因为我在加入 X 之前就已经做得很好了，不是吗？ 我一直看到有人试图贬低我最近做多的票，比如 $AXTI、$LITE 或 $TSEM，说那只是算法和平台带来的。 也许它们上涨 800%+，只是因为这个想法本身就是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@kevstern1 Because I was doing just as well even before I joined X? Keep seeing people try and diminish recent longs like $AXTI, $LITE, or $TSEM due to algorithms and platforms. Maybe it’s up 800%+ because the idea was correct.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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说自己去年就宣布过 AXTI，这些是新的。
@Antonzeehow $AXTI 我去年就公布过了。 这些是新的！
原推 ↗英文原文
@Antonzeehow $AXTI I announced last year. These are new!
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认为 AXTI 掌控行业命脉，若武器化会带来巨大回报。
@americangeomap $AXTI 掐住了整个行业的咽喉。 如果它真的把这种优势武器化，我觉得没有哪只票能比得上 AXT 的回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@americangeomap $AXTI has a stranglehold over the entire industry. If it decides to weaponize that, don’t think any pick can beat AXT returns
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引用 Lightcounting 认为光互连到 2030 年可到 1000 亿美元，并列出自己偏好的链条标的。
Lightcounting："这不是笔误" 到 2030 年，光互连市场很有可能从 2025 年的约 190 亿美元增长到 1000 亿美元以上。 如果你想看我最喜欢的名字： 复合型：$MRVL、$SMTC CW 激光：$SIVE、$MTSI、$AAOI 晶圆代工：$TSEM、Win Semi 衬底 / 外延：$AXTI、$SOI、$IQE 黄金标准：$LITE、$COHR 下一轮 TAM 扩张的乘数，主要由 CPO / Scale Up 驱动，而这大多由 SiPh 和外部 CW 激光推动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.
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请大家选出下一只高确定性高增长股。
好了各位，我很好奇你们对下一只 1350%+ 一年回报的 $SNDK，或者 2918% 一年回报的 $AXTI 有什么看法。 如果必须只选一只、极高 conviction、抛物线式增长的股票…… 你会选哪只，为什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay chat. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the next 1350%+ 1Y return $SNDK or 2918% 1Y return $AXTI. If you have to choose 1 very high conviction, hyperbolic growth stock... What would it be and why?
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调侃自己被做成了 hate watch 社区对象。
我现在居然都有自己的 hate watch 社区了？ 像 $AXTI 这种股票在过去 4 个月涨了 400%。 -> 然后回调了 14%。 几个月后一个酸溜溜的评论者却说：“被烤熟了”
原推 ↗英文原文
Why do I have my own hate watch community now? Stock like $AXTI climbs 400% in the past 4 months. -> Corrects by 14%. Salty commenter months later: "Get cooked" https://t.co/gfdVanYG43
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说自己正在回敬那些说 thesis 错了的人。
@Mr_Drone 正在回头打脸那些说我 $AXTI 或 $SIVE thesis 错了的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mr_Drone Victory lapping all the haters who said my $AXTI or $SIVE thesis was wrong
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列出几只自己认为有 binary upside 的小票，并对各自风险做了简述。
我觉得在这个位置，$IQE 的二元上行空间最大，而且如果成功重组并转向 InP AI 业务，确实有可能涨 5 到 10 倍。 $POET 的下行风险因为现金资产负债表而比较低。我个人以前不太喜欢它……但如果它能在 Celestial 之外再拿下其他头部合作方，我也能看见它的上行空间。 如果 $AXTI 真的把供应链武器化，我能想象它从 30 亿美元变成 100 亿美元以上。否则的话，现在的估值其实还算合理。 $AAOI 更像是这样：他们能做到吗？能，一年涨 4 倍不是没可能。 我们拭目以待，当然每只也都有下行风险，比如 $IQE 的债务。我的 thesis 只是：按 landmark 相比来看，它们在反应炉 / 底层产能上的原始价值，超过了市值。 我最近没说太多，因为现在都在等新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IQE probably has most binary upside at these levels and legitimately could 5-10x upon successful restructuring and conversion toward InP AI segments. $POET has pretty low downside risk due to cash balance sheet. I personally wasn’t a fan… but I see the upside if they can qualify with other leading partners aside from Celestial. $AXTI if they weaponized their supply chain I can see it being $10B+ from $3B. Otherwise current valuations are reasonable . $AAOI is more so. Can they do it? Yes they can for a 4x in a year. We’ll see what happens, there’s obviously downside risks with each too like $IQE debt. My thesis was just their raw value in terms of reactors/underlying capacity relative to landmark outweighs mc. Haven’t said too much since it’s waiting periods for news
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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说 AAOI 的波动很正常，经历过 AXTI 后更能适应。
@MacadoMP 这对 $AAOI 来说就是正常波动。 你得慢慢习惯它，尤其是如果你以前做过 $AXTI，你对 +25% 到 -20% 这种波动就会比较麻木。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MacadoMP Just your normal volatility for $AAOI. It's something to get used to, especially if you've been in $AXTI before, you're conditioned to be fine with +25% -20% movements.
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以Marvell收购Celestial为例，分析CPO供应链中Sivers作为CW激光器关键瓶颈供应商的巨大TAM扩张潜力。
看看$MRVL收购Celestial（$SIVE是其~2.9亿美元的光源供应商）这个例子就知道了。Marvell以55亿美元收购Celestial（32.5亿美元+22.5亿美元里程碑付款）。2026/2027年预期：零收入，亏损5000万美元。2028年预期：5亿美元收入。2029年预期：10亿美元收入。这是巨大的TAM（市场规模）扩张和收入加速增长。Sivers只是Celestial之上的客户之一，此外还有O-Net、Ayar、其他未公开的CPO（共封装光学）厂商，Jabil负责桥接量产爬坡并赢得良率。那些对光子学毫无理解的散户……正在做的事相当于：因为Celestial在2025、2026年没有CPO收入，就把它建模为5000万美元。因为它目前处于净亏损状态，而不是着眼于2027年之后的大规模爬坡。$SIVE是我抢先布局下一个架构超级周期（位于最早期阶段）的首选标的，涉及ELS TAM扩张+CPO+连续波(CW)激光器瓶颈。如果你想找后期介入的标的，可以看$LITE，它已经涨了3800%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example. Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones). 2026/2027 expectations: 0 revenue, -$50m loss 2028 expectations: $500m revenue 2029 expectations: $1B revenue. This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration. This is just one of Sivers customer on top of O-Net, Ayar, other undisclosed CPO players, with Jabil bridging volume ramp and Win with yields. Random retail users with no understanding of photonics… are doing the equivalent of modeling Celestial at $50m because of no CPO revenue in 2025 2026. And because it’s operating at a net loss instead of looking at the massive ramp 2027 onward. $SIVE is my #1 pick for frontrunning the next architectural supercycles at the very beginning for ELS TAM expansion + CPO + CW laser chokepoints. If you want a later stage pick, you can look at $LITE that already ran 3800%.
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批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学、CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。
请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI： 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节，这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT，也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈，而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE： 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人，拿毛利率、烧钱速度，以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点，它们 2027 年开始放量，2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司，因为我看的是前瞻增长，而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha： 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样，把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%，结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈，自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的，自有其原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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认为被叫 meme stock 的标的最后往往成了大公司，SIVE 会是下一个。
@innovavest 我不知道。所有被散户和媒体贴上“meme stock”标签的我的票，最后都变成了像 $AXTI 这样的十亿美元级公司。 $SIVE 会是下一个，我很有信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@innovavest Idk. All the retail and news "labelled meme stocks" for my picks ended up becoming billion dollar companies like $AXTI. $SIVE is next, have high confidence.
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列出几个关键瓶颈点，认为 VNP 最接近西方版 AXTI。
是的，我花了很多时间把这个图整理出来。 瓶颈 1：$VNP 可能是西方世界里最接近 $AXTI 的单一瓶颈，但在镓、铟、砷等材料上，它还达不到同样的规模。 瓶颈 2：pBN 坩埚，也许是 Shin-Etsu Chemical？ 瓶颈 3：第二层可能是 Sumitomo / $COHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, I spent a lot of time making this on the chart. Chokepoint 1: $VNP is probably the closest you get to $AXTI in the West for one chokepoint, but nothing to the same scale for (gallium, indium, arsenic, etc. ) Chokepoint 2: pBN Crucibles, maybe Shin-Etsu Chemical? Chokepoint 3: Sumitomo / $COHR for the second.
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认为如果 Shkreli 加入董事会，AXTI 可能会是 100 亿美元公司。
如果 Marin Shkreli 加入 $AXTI 董事会，我觉得它可能会成为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 否则的话，我觉得它在这个位置算是比较合理定价，但我个人还是持有的。 它在光子学上对 AI 行业拥有一个垄断性的瓶颈。问题更多是他们会不会通过提价把这种优势武器化？ 考虑到宏观环境，CSP 里卖看跌期权、选低执行价总是个不错的进场方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
If Marin Shkreli joined the board of $AXTI, I think it could be a $10B+ company. Otherwise, it's fairly valued I think around these levels, but I'm personally holding. They own a monopolistic chokepoint over the AI industry with photonics. It's more of a matter of they weaponize it or not with price hikes? Given macro climate, entry via CSP is always a good idea at lower strikes.
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用类比解释 AXT 的供应链位置，反驳把不同环节混为一谈的说法。
我应该不是唯一一个在想这个的人……对吧？ 这样的类比能帮助普通人更理解 $AXTI，因为这件事非常复杂。 外面有太多错误信息了，比如说三星新的晶圆代工在和 $AXTI 竞争，或者 $LITE 新的 InP 产能在和 $AXTI 竞争…… 它们都只是供应链的不同环节。 而 AXT 处在整个链条的最上游，上游中的最上游。
原推 ↗英文原文
I couldn't have been the only one thinking about it... right? Analogies like these help regulars understand $AXTI more since it's very nuanced. There's just tons of disinformation out there like Samsung's new foundry is competing with $AXTI.. or $LITE new inp capacity competing with $AXTI.. They're all different parts of the supply chain. And AXT is the very very very top of it.
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把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡，强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。
“AXTI 海峡”来了： 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍，把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方，而不是韩国 / 日本呢？ 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈（可以把它想成伊朗先产油，再通过海峡运输出去）。 所以，如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍（但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面，而不是国家经济层面）： 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位（以及中国的咽喉地位）。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于，AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力： 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设，在规模化上没有别的选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.
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AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项
Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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调侃如果不了解 AXTI，就说明你还没经历过它的大回撤。
@AntonisProtop 如果你以前没经历过 $AXTI 的 15-25% 日内回撤，你大概就是新来的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AntonisProtop You must be new here with $AXTI if you haven’t experienced 15-25% daily drawdowns
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把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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看好HIMS与TEM结合布局个性化AI医疗，认为市场潜力巨大
个性化AI医疗很可能是一个巨大的市场。没有人想早死。将 $HIMS 与 $TEM 结合具有巨大潜力。这里有一个GitLab CEO的例子：2023年，Sijbrandij被诊断出骨肉瘤；2024年7月，他宣布癌症复发了，尽管进行了多种治疗；到2024年底，他已经用尽了标准医疗方案的全部选择。没有选择接受死亡，Sijbrandij决定像构建GitLab一样将他的癌症作为一个工程问题来处理。他开始向ChatGPT输入大量的个人医疗数据，包括扫描结果、血液检测结果和组织样本数据。ChatGPT和AI在识别突变后提出了新的靶向治疗方案，然后确定如何攻击这些突变。在此基础上，他申请了未获批准、处于试验阶段的药物并获得了用药。这个方法奏效了。Sijbrandij用AI阻止并扭转了晚期预判。我们已经看到了这个成功案例（ $TEM 明确列为他用于肿瘤批量RNA测序的合作伙伴）。最近也有一个人用AI治愈了自己的狗。如果你能够将 $HIMS（直销医疗分销网络）和 $TEM（个性化测序和AI治疗）结合成一个可扩展的产品，潜力是巨大的（尽管极具挑战性）。全球人口都是潜在市场。这类似于 $AXTI InP（磷化铟）在超大规模数据中心的情况：人们会不惜代价避免死亡（这就是瓶颈）。这只是未来医疗发展方向的一个缩影。
原推 ↗英文原文
Personalized AI medicine will likely be huge. Nobody wants to die early. Combining $HIMS to $TEM has immense potential. Here's just one example with Gitlab's CEO: > In 2023, Sijbrandij was diagnosed with osteosarcoma > In July 2024, he announced the cancer had returned, despite multiple treatments > By late 2024, he had reached the absolute end of standard of care medical options. > Rather than accepting death, Sijbrandij decided to treat his cancer the same way he built GitLab as an engineering problem > He began feeding ChatGPT massive amounts of his personal medical data from scans, blood test results, and tissue sample data. > ChatGPT and AI made novel targeted treatments after identifying mutations, then how to attack them > From there, he applied for unapproved, experimental drug and received it > The approach worked. Sijbrandij managed to stall and turn around a terminal prognosis with AI. We've seen this success story with Gitlab's CEO ( $TEM was explicitly listed the partner he used for the bulk RNA sequencing of his tumor ). As well as someone curing their own dog with AI recently. The potential if you can combine $HIMS (DTC distribution network) and $TEM (Personalized sequencing and AI treatment) into a scalable product is massive (though extremely challenging). The entire human population is the TAM. And similar to the $AXTI InP situation with hyperscalers: People will pay anything to not die (bottleneck). This is just a hint into where the future of healthcare is heading.
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认为用有限 TAM 思路来理解 SIVE 这种瓶颈点是错的，应该看扩张/博弈。
很高兴这有帮助。 我说 $SIVE 让我想起 $LITE，大概就是我脑子里在想的这些东西。 我也看到有人试图把像 $AXTI 这种东西建模成有限或稳定复利型 TAM，而不是把它看成扩张或瓶颈博弈——但那是看错了这些细分供应链卡点的方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad it’s helpful. When I say $SIVE reminds me of $LITE, this is kinda what I’m thinking about in the back of my mind. I also saw people try to model finite or steady compounding TAM (like $AXTI) rather than expansion or bottleneck game theory, which is the wrong approach for these niche supply chain chokepoints
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提出让 SIVE 沿光子链条扩张 TAM、借资本注入和拆分推进 ELS 模块规模化。
难道 $SIVE 就不能学 $LITE 那样，把 TAM 往 ELS 整个堆栈一路往下扩吗？ 我已经开始想起早期的 $LITE 了（Oclaro、NeoPhotonics、Cloud Light）…… 下面是我的论点/设想： Sivers 如何把大约 300-400 美元的 ELS（来自 50-100 美元的阵列）吃下来，并成长为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 路径大概是： -> Sivers 需要融资。 -> 拿 NRE 预付款或者 PIPE（比如 $AXTI/Northland） -> 直接告诉市场：“$AVGO 和 $LITE 会把你们定制 AI 集群的利润率卡住。” ----> 让 $META / $AMZN / $MSFT 投资注资，来支持未来 ASIC 集群的多来源供应，因为他们会害怕。 尤其是 $NVDA 已经出资 40 亿美元来保障从 $LITE 和 $COHR 的供应……再加上当前 EML 产能瓶颈带来的 PTSD。 其实比大家想的容易。 -> 把光子学业务分拆到美国（市场不喜欢给老牌公司投资）。 - - - - - > 这件事大概率会在 2026 年奏效，因为 CPO / photonics 现在是热潮，而不再是 2024 年到 2025 年初那样。 -> 筹到足够的钱后，自动化晶圆探针机，并给模块 NPI 提供资金。 -> 采用轻资本 fab-lite 测试模型：自建探针卡并内部测试，但把 capex 交给 OSAT。 -> 收购硅光封装 IP（或者继续和 O-Net、$POET 做 JDM）。 -> 保留 Glasgow 的 InP 晶圆厂，用于内部测试、迭代和原始外延。 -> 把光刻、刻蚀等环节外包给 Win Semi 和其他厂商（别自己做重资本环节）。 -> 然后 $SIVE 只要把经过测试的激光器和封装 IP 交给 $FN。 然后就成了。 你拥有了一个独立、可大规模生产、高毛利的 ELS 模块，而 ELSFP 也会成为标准。 之后他们还能做别的事，比如购买 DSP 设计并开始整合技术栈。 不再是每个 10 美元的激光芯片乘 6，做成 50 到 100 美元的激光阵列，而是变成 400 美元的可热插拔模块。 基本上，他们的起点是掌握光子学里激光层面的一个瓶颈护城河…… 然后他们就能像 $LITE 当年那样，往下游做 EML 和光模块。 TLDR： Sivers（$SIVE）在世界正向 CPO 转型的这个时点，持有一个稀缺、独立的 InP 激光瓶颈点。 全球只有少数几家独立公司能做这件事，比如 $SIVE（例如住友、$LITE、$COHR）。 但当然，他们需要资金、需要正确的愿景，才能实现 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
原推 ↗英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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SIVE作为CPO光源瓶颈被低估，2500万市值太低，坚信将成下一个AXTI
这就是为什么在进入交易前需要有信念。如果你了解$SIVE在CW激光领域为Jabil、$MRVL Celestial等共封装光学(CPO)供应，就会明白2.5亿美元市值作为光源瓶颈来说太低了。我们高度相信，一年后这会像$AXTI一样，因为这将是CPO规模化扩展的架构范式。在上涨过程中我不关心波动，因为我对光子学的发展如何演绎有坚定的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
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提到 AXTI 在 Northland 注资后大概 7.5 亿估值。
@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 对 $AXTI 来说，在 Northland 砸了 1 亿美元、而我的 thesis 落地之后，它大概就到了 7.5 亿美元左右。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MindQuest42 @Jornka329996 For $AXTI it was around $750m after Northland put in $100m after my thesis.
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说自己 AXTI 仓位还涨很多，但股票不会直线上涨。
@Lee_Trades 对啊，它们都非常波动。 比如我的 $AXTI 仓位现在也只是涨了 724%，没有冲到 1000%，有点可惜。 股票不会一路直线上涨。 不过如果你知道自己拿的是什么，那市场上的每一天都还是挺有意思的。 https://t.co/XSp93jeuMa
原推 ↗英文原文
@Lee_Trades Yep, they’re all really volatile. My $AXTI positions are now only up 724% instead of hitting 1000% sadly, for example. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up. But if you know what you own, it’s just another fun day in the markets. https://t.co/XSp93jeuMa
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光子学全面回撤，但认为这类回撤常是筹码交换时刻，前提是别加杠杆。
光子学现在一点都不好玩。 激光公司里： $LITE、$SIVE、$COHR、$MTSI、$AAOI 全都在跌。 衬底、晶圆厂和外延片公司里： $IQE、$AXTI、$SOI、$TSEM 也全都在跌。 几乎全是红的。 从低 beta 的 Coherent 只有 6% 的跌幅，一直到 22% 都有。 这次最该学到的教训是： 拥抱波动，不要用杠杆。 一只票如果一天能涨 25%，今天也可能跌 20%。 由宏观驱动的流动性真空和止损，会造成非常剧烈的波动。 不过，如果像 $LITE 和 $COHR 这样的公司都已经卖断货到 2028 年…… 或者如果你知道 $SIVE 会是下一个 CW 激光受益者，市值大约只有 3.4 亿美元，而 $AXTI 会变成衬底瓶颈。 那么这类宏观砸盘，往往也是让有能力重新布局的人换手的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
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指出光子/材料/代工名字普遍在跑赢，而指数其实仍然在跌。
@Alex__0x0 是啊，从 $AAOI、$LITE、$MTSI、$TSEM、$COHR、$AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、Landmark 等这些名字到其他标的，都在明显跑赢！ 有时候你会忘了，其实指数年初至今还跌了 4%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!. Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD.
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感叹很多人会嫉妒持有平庸股票却错过暴涨标的。
@beauty_oe 世界上有很多人，手里只握着像 $PYPL 这种无聊的股票，却眼睁睁看着像 $AXTI 这种标的暴涨几百个百分点，于是心里发酸（或者说懊恼）。 我完全理解自己组合表现不好的时候，很难真心替别人高兴。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe 世の中には $PYPL みたいな退屈な株をただ握りしめたまま $AXTI のような銘柄が数百パーセントも爆上げするのを見せつけられて、僻んでいる（悔しがっている）人が山ほどいるよね。 自分のポートフォリオの成績がイマイチな時に、他人を素直に応援できない気持ちはよくわかるよ。
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说明自己在教散户如何通过识别 AI 架构变化来抢跑机构。
我在教散户如何通过识别 AI 架构变化来抢跑机构，用 $AXTI 以及其他名字做例子。 然后再去挑供应链里的赢家。 这类信息通常会比传统模式快很多被计价： $2 万美元以上的卖方研究报告 -> 机构用几周时间通过限价单 / 暗池慢慢买 -> 等散户知道时，股价已经涨了 1000% 以后。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m teaching retail how to frontrun institutions by spotting architectural changes in AI with $AXTI and others. Then picking the winners in the supply chains. It tends to get priced in a lot faster than the traditional model of $20K+ sellside reports -> institutions load up over weeks with limit buys/dark pools -> retail finds out after it’s gone up 1000%
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强调自己靠信息发现和机构验证提前抓到多只大涨股，并反问为何现在还被质疑。
我在想…… 无论是 $AXTI、$IQE 还是 $SIVE。 还有我做多的很多其他光子学赢家，比如 $LITE，过去几个月回报都是 100% 到 1000%。 那些酸的人什么时候才会承认…… 我的 thesis 其实就是对的。为什么还要贬低它？ 像 $TSEM 这种市值 200 亿美元以上的公司，不会在两周内涨 70%，除非机构验证了 thesis 并觉得它有说服力。 $AXTI 也是一样，除非机构觉得它有说服力，否则不会从 4.5 亿美元市值一路涨到 38.5 亿美元。 我只是比别人更早发现这些东西，并做信息整合 / 信息发现。 在这些案例里，散户明显先于机构行动，而且赚到了改变人生的收益。 如果 thesis 是错的，机构可以站在交易的另一边。可他们并没有这么做。 X 上所有人都在问下一个 1000% 在哪。 而当有人在 X 上免费发出多个想法， 在价格还没动之前就明确给出方向性交易， -> 然后它们像 $AXTI 一样真的涨了 10 倍： 得到的却是诽谤？ 也许你该想一想……是不是 thesis / idea 本来就是对的？
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m curious… With $AXTI, $IQE, or $SIVE. And the many other photonics winners I’ve longed like $LITE that returned 100-1000% over the past few months. When is it time for the salty folks out there to admit… That my thesis are just right after all. Instead of downplaying it? $20B+ companies like $TSEM don’t just move up 70% in 2 weeks, unless institutions validated the thesis and found it compelling. Same with $AXTI, it wouldn’t have ran from $450M MC to $3.85B MC unless institutions found it compelling. I just spot these before others do, and post information synthesis/discovery. In these cases, retail has clearly frontrun institutions and made life changing returns. If the thesis were wrong, institutions can take the other end of the trade. Which they don’t. Everyone on X keeps asking for the next 1000%. And when there’s someone out there on X that posts multiple (for free) ideas. Posts a clear directional trade before the price even moved. -> then they do ~10x like $AXTI: They’re met with slander instead? Ever stop to think… maybe the thesis/idea was right after all?
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认为机构开始意识到 SIVE 在 CW/EML 瓶颈中的重要性，自己仍看它是下一个十倍。
当机构开始意识到 $SIVE 在 CW / EML 激光瓶颈里的重要性时，真是有种“TFW”的感觉。 但他们手里却没有仓位…… Sivers 到现在已经涨了 220%+，但我预计它会成为我下一个像 $AXTI 那样的个人 10 倍股。 https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa
原推 ↗英文原文
TFW institutions realize how important $SIVE is in the CW/EML laser bottleneck. But have no positions… Sivers is up 220%+ so far, but I expect this to be my next personal 10x like $AXTI. https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa
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$SIVE是极少数纯光激光瓶颈投资标的，估值仅4亿美元却已切入超大规模云服务商供应链。
$SIVE简直是世界上少数几个纯正的公共投资渠道，直接暴露在（CW/EML）光学激光瓶颈中。 $LITE - 550亿美元+ $COHR - 530亿美元+ $MTSI - 178亿美元+ $AAOI - 88亿美元 $SIVE - 4亿美元 你几乎从来没见过这种情况... 真的震惊于有一家像Sivers这样的小型公司存在。它已经通过Jabil、Marvell Celestial、O-Net、Ayar等公司成为超大规模云服务商的合格供应商。 这是我见过的市场上最大的结构性缺口之一。 我预计市场会像$AXTI一样每天重新定价这件事，随着越来越多的机构开始意识到这一点。 （引用内容）： $SIVE一定是我在这个市场里见过的除了$AXTI之外上涨空间最大的股票？ 市场不可能错过Jabil、Marvell（通过$POET的Celestial）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有$NVDA和联发科支持）所用的CW激光光源... 估值只有1.4亿美元（现在是3.5亿美元）。 不仅能获得最直接的激光敞口，用于未来的CPO规模化？ 还有这个周期的1.6T可插拔模块，与$JBL（前英特尔硅光子部门）即将推出的产品合作。 稳懋(Win Semi)需要为超大规模云服务商供应链扩大桥接产能。 99.9%的人还没意识到这件事的规模之大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.
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$SIVE 估值洼地，兼具CPO激光和1.6T可插拔光模块双重赛道，上涨空间极大
$SIVE 一定是我在这个市场里见过的相对于 $AXTI 而言上涨空间最大的股票了吧？市场不可能错过 CW 激光光源这条赛道——客户包括 Jabil、Marvell（通过 $POET 的 Celestial 项目）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有 $NVDA 和联发科支持）……而估值才 1.4 亿美元（现在是 3.5 亿了）。你不仅能获得对未来共封装光学(CPO)规模扩张最直接的激光业务敞口，还能获得本轮周期 1.6T 可插拔光模块业务敞口——$JBL（前身为英特尔硅光子业务部门）的产品即将推出。此外，稳懋半导体(Win Semi)的代工产能扩张对于超大规模云厂商的供应链也至关重要。我认为 99.9% 的人还没有意识到这件事的规模有多大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE has gotta be the highest upside stock I’ve seen in this market since $AXTI? No way markets missed the CW laser light source for Jabil, Marvell (Celestial via $POET), O-Net, Ayar ( $NVDA, Mediatek backed)… At a $140M valuation. ($350m now) Not only do you get the most direct laser exposure to future CPO scale up? But also this cycle’s 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon. With Win Semi bridge capacity scaling needed for hyperscaler supply chains. Don’t think 99.9% of people realized the sheer scale of this yet.
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觉得厕所纸与 Taco Bell 的类比被很多人共鸣。
@PhotonCap 哈哈，我很高兴厕纸和 Taco Bell 的 $AXTI 类比能让这么多人有共鸣。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap lol I’m glad the toilet paper and Taco Bell $AXTI analogy resonated with so many people
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用找厕所和买厕纸的类比，说明瓶颈不应按传统估值倍数来建模。
我一直在 X 上反复说： 不要试图用传统的 P/S 或 P/E 去建模瓶颈。 以 $AXTI 为例： 这就像你吃了 Taco Bell 的 20 个加豆 Pinto Beans Taco 之后，终于找到厕所。 但你已经没厕纸了，而且事情很急。 旁边有个人愿意以 20 美元卖你厕纸。 但厕纸的原材料成本在 Amazon 上其实只要 1 美元。 可因为市场上已经没供给，而你又确实需要厕纸： 你还是愿意付 20 美元。 这就是 $AXTI 对应的 InP 衬底 + feedstock 供应链和超大规模云厂商的关系。
原推 ↗英文原文
I keep this all over X: Stop trying to model bottlenecks with traditional metrics like P/S or P/E… For $AXTI: It’s like you found a restroom after eating 20 Tacos with Pinto Beans from Taco Bell. You’re out of the toilet paper… but it’s urgent. A random guy next to you offers you toilet paper for $20. But the toilet paper raw cost is $1 from Amazon. But because there’s no supply, and you need that Toilet Paper: You’re happy to pay $20. That’s $AXTI with the InP substrate + feedstock supply chain and hyperscalers.
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说对方从十几美元就跟踪 AXTI，现在又想分享更有吸引力的 SIVE 和 TSEM。
@beauty_oe 你也从十几美元的时候就开始跟踪 $AXTI 了吧！它涨成这样真的很厉害。 现在这个价位有点偏高了，所以我也想分享一些估值上可能更有吸引力的其他名字，比如 $SIVE 和 $TSEM。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe あなたも10ドル台から $AXTI をカバーしていましたよね！あそこまで上昇したのは本当に見事です。 今の水準だと少し高値圏にあるので、バリュエーション的にもっと魅力的かもしれない $SIVE や $TSEM といった他の銘柄もシェアしておきたいと思いました。
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用厕纸和 Taco Bell 类比 AXTI 的稀缺定价。
@StockStormX 如果你吃了 Taco Bell 的 20 个玉米饼后把厕纸用完了。 这时有人在卖厕纸，卖 20 美元，尽管它只值 1 美元。 你还是会付这 20 美元，因为你别无选择。 $AXTI 也是同样的道理。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StockStormX If you ran out of toilet paper after eating 20 Tacos from Taco Bell. Then someone was selling toilet paper for $20, even though it's worth $1. You would pay that $20, because there's no other option. Equivalent is with $AXTI.
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说自己在 69.69 的价格上刷到位置，像是天时地利。
@MindQuest42 它其实就是在我刷新一次的时候落到了 69.69，美得像天时地利都对上了，和 $AXTI 一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MindQuest42 It actually landed there in like 1 refresh on $69.69, so the stars aligned with $AXTI
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回顾 AXTI 10 倍成功后，列出 SIVE、AAOI、VNP、SOI 等下一批高信念供应链标的。
所以我的 10 倍 Moonshot $AXTI 最后真的飞到了月球。 如果你觉得自己错过了火箭： -> $SIVE 是我现在最喜欢的下一个 AXT 式 10 倍 Moonshot。 -> $AAOI 自从我提到之后已经涨了 4 倍，但我还是觉得它从现在这个位置还能再涨 4 倍。 如果你想玩得更稳一点： -> $VNP 是西方版本的 $AXTI -> $SOI 是硅光 / CPO 版本的 $AXTI，但它还没真正起量。 -> $IQE 更偏向重组后的二元结果。 -> $TSEM、$LITE、$COHR 则是更稳的复利型标的。 我之前还没怎么提过 $VNP（5N Plus），但它确实是西方供应链里最重要的公司之一，是 $AXTI 的对照面。 它主要供应：铟、锗、镓、碲、铋。也供应 LEO 卫星太阳能电池，以及光子学的衬底 feedstock。 市场里永远还有更多机会！
原推 ↗英文原文
So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!
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说自己因为发 AXTI thesis 被评论区骂惨。
@fakeboycarti 评论区当时几乎全是负面评论哈哈。 我发 $AXTI 的 thesis 时被人喷到体无完肤。 https://t.co/TvVjrSeez6
原推 ↗英文原文
@fakeboycarti The whole comment section was negative lol. Got downvoted to oblivion for posting the thesis on $AXTI https://t.co/TvVjrSeez6
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说 AXTI 已到 69.69 传奇位阶，Axt 估值虽贵但对 AI 供应链有价值。
$AXTI 现在已经到了传奇的 69.69 价位。 我原本期待的是一年半接近 10 倍的回报，而不是几个月就到位…… 从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，几乎所有东西都在疯狂跑赢。 至于 AXT 按 40 亿美元市值来算？是不是贵了。是。 超大规模云厂商会不会为了确保自己的 AI 构建去付 100 亿美元？会。 很多这种瓶颈，根本不能用传统估值指标来定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69. Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months… Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming. As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes. Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes. Lot of these bottlenecks can’t be valued with traditional metrics.
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股价短期波动不改变投资论点，应保持信念不被宏观因素左右。
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.
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希望 SIVE 能像 AXTI 一样成功，自己 AXTI 已经涨 800%+。
@ResonantCapital 我也希望 $SIVE 能做到。我的 $AXTI 仓位现在已经涨了 800%+。 https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
原推 ↗英文原文
@ResonantCapital I hope $SIVE does. My $AXTI positions are now up 800%+ https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
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认为新瓶颈 / 卡点无法用线性收入模型预测，只能基于供应链位置做主观判断。
像 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 这种新的瓶颈 / 卡点，前瞻收入根本没法建模。 你只能拿它跟龙头、它们的客户去做估值比较，再根据它在供应链里的位置做一个主观判断，比如 Jabil 的 1.6T transceiver、Ayar -> AI 芯片、$MRVL Celestial，或者更多还没公开的客户。 任何分析师如果说自己能准确建模收入放量路径，那基本都是在胡扯，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's impossible to model forward revenue for new bottlenecks/chokepoints like $AXTI or $SIVE. It's valuation comparison to leaders, their customers, then just making a discretionary estimate on where it heads based on positioning (eg. Jabil 1.6T transceivers, Ayar -> Ai Chip, $MRVL celestial, and maybe more undisclosed customers). Any analyst who tries to model an accurate projection of revenue ramp is just giving BS lol.
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认为即使宏观不佳，光子供应链瓶颈在资金流入后仍会跑赢大盘。
不会。实际上，像 $AXTI 这种票今年迄今回报 280%，对比 $SPY 还是 -3%，它们反而会大幅跑赢指数！ 如果数千亿美元的超大规模云 CapEx 沿着供应链往上游流向这些公司，尤其是光子学这些瓶颈： 那么基本面的重估（尤其像 $SNDK 那样，靠提价带来经营利润的案例）会无视宏观环境。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nope. If anything they’ll all strongly outperform the index as seen with $AXTI 280% YTD return vs. $SPY -3% YTD! If hundreds of billions of hyperscaler capex flows upstream to these companies, especially in photonics sectors bottlenecks: The fundamental re-rating (esp. with price hikes -> operational income as seen with $SNDK) will ignore macro climates.
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说自己平时不会频繁 victory lap，但 AXTI 和光子选股最近实在太夸张。
@IdeaLedger 抱歉，通常一个人每涨 40% 就 victory lap 一次，可能也得隔几个月。 但 $AXTI 和光子股最近的表现太夸张了，几乎每隔一天就来一次。 这也有助于我获得新关注。
原推 ↗英文原文
@IdeaLedger Sorry, normally when someone victory laps every 40% gain, maybe it’s every few months. $AXTI and optical picks have been an anomaly every other day. Also helps with getting new followers
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说怀疑者早该消失了。
@Ren_aramb 是啊……我原本以为在 $AXTI 之后，怀疑者早就该消失了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah… thought the doubters would have disappeared by now after $AXTI
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回顾自己对 AXTI 的 150 美元目标价，认为是靠抢先识别瓶颈。
大家都觉得我疯了，说我把 $AXTI 的目标价从 12-15 美元上调到 150 美元。 然后怀疑者一下子都没声音了？ 我今年年初至今回报超过 600%+，原因就是我总是比别人先识别超大规模云供应链里的最大瓶颈。 然后再做多。 https://t.co/lgmu8p7F5a
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone thought I was crazy when I gave $AXTI a $150 PT from $12-15. All the doubters suddenly disappeared? Reason my YTD is over 600%+ is because I identify the biggest chokepoints in hyperscaler supply chains before anyone else. Then go long. https://t.co/lgmu8p7F5a
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半开玩笑说自己的光子股每个月都涨几百个百分点，AXTI 也快 1000% 回报了。
@__visionxry__ 是啊，不知道为什么我那些光子股都在每个月涨几百个百分点。 $AXTI 马上就要做到 1000% 回报了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yeah not sure why all my photonics picks are going up hundreds of percent a month. $AXTI gonna be 1000% return soon
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$SIVE激光供应商市值仅3亿，却对标百亿级$LITE，上涨空间巨大
$SIVE 正在重演我的 $AXTI 论点第十版吗？ 现在已上涨三倍。 说真的，市场怎么会错过这个？ -> 作为 Jabil 的激光供应商……用于当前超级周期中的 1.6T 可插拔光收发器。 -> 作为 Ayar / $MRVL Celestial 的激光供应商……用于即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。 从 $MTSI 到 $LITE，你们所有的激光供应商都是 170-450 亿美元的公司。 $SIVE？ 现在市值只有约 3.1 亿美元。 高确信度做多。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is starting to play out like my $AXTI thesis round 10? Up triple digits now. Really not sure how markets missed this one tbh? -> Laser supplier to Jabil… for 1.6T pluggable transceivers in the current supercycle. -> Laser supplier to Ayar / $MRVL celestial for CPO, in the upcoming supercycle. Literally all your laser suppliers from $MTSI to $LITE are $17-45B companies. $SIVE? Now only at ~$310M. High conviction long.
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说自己 AXTI 未实现收益 604%，所以看着它“跌很多”很难。
@marv_jones6 @BonyBallf2 对啊，我在 $AXTI 上还浮盈 604%…… 所以对我来说真的很难把它看成“跌很多”的票，正如评论里说的那样。 我还继续持有着。 https://t.co/zhGXaYkeTZ
原推 ↗英文原文
@marv_jones6 @BonyBallf2 Yeah I’m sitting on 604% unrealized gains for $AXTI… so hard to notice this stock “down a lot” according to the commenter. Still holding https://t.co/zhGXaYkeTZ
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用一串收益对比说明 AXTI、IQE、AAOI 只是短期回撤，并非真正下跌。
$AXTI 当时是 12 到 15 美元？ 我从没听说过有人会把从 5 倍回报之后，$AXTI 从 60 美元回调到 55 美元这种事称作“跌很多”。 $IQE 年初至今涨了 266%？ $AAOI 从 30 美元 -> 125 美元 -> 85 美元，不能就说它跌很多。 真正确实是红的，只有 $RDDT。因为我在它 140 美元时提过，现在它是 136.5 美元。也就是跌了 3.5 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI was $12-15? I’ve never heard of someone complain of $AXTI correcting $5 after a 5x return to $60 to $55. $IQE is up 266% YTD? $AAOI was $28-$32? Going from $30 -> $125 -> $85 doesn’t mean down a lot $RDDT is the only name you’ve mentioned that’s genuinely red since I mentioned it at $140 and now it’s $136.5. So down $3.5
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说 SIVE 上涨 6.7%，在大盘普跌时说明这是选股者市场。
$SIVE 今天涨了 6.7%。 当从 KOSPI 到 Nikkei 的整个市场都在跌的时候，你就知道自己做对了什么。 而 $TSEM 到 $AXTI 这些个股还在涨。 很明显，现在已经是选股者市场了。 像石油、稀土、半导体这些全世界都在争夺的主题标的，已经明显跑赢了更广泛的市场。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is up 6.7% today. You know you're doing something right: When the entire market from KOSPI to Nikkei is red. While individual longs from $TSEM to $AXTI are green. It's clear that this is now a stock picker's market. As thematic individual names in Oil, Rare Earths, to Semis, that the world is fighting over... Have strongly outperformed the broader market.
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说现在是选股者市场，油、稀土、半导体强于大盘。
@MarginCallMick 当然，这里说的是整体市场。 现在就是一个选股者市场，因为石油、稀土和半导体中的个股都明显跑赢了更广泛的市场。 看看 $AXTI 年初至今涨了 226.3%，或者 $VNP 涨了 64.29%。 https://t.co/dw15gpVRsW
原推 ↗英文原文
@MarginCallMick Of course. These are just overall markets. This is a stock picker's market, as individual names in Oil, Rare Earths, and Semis have strongly outperformed the broader market. Just look at $AXTI up 226.3% YTD or $VNP up 64.29% https://t.co/dw15gpVRsW
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梳理机器人供应链所需的稀土、结构金属等关键材料公司，涵盖30余只小市值标的
通常这个会发在「淋浴灵感」板块，但今天放主时间线。 $ALOY - 稀土粉末 -> 高纯度金属。用于液态冷却泵的磁铁 $NB - 钪，用于服务器机架的轻量化金属框架 $UURAF - 稀土分离 $ARA - 磁铁上游原料 $MEI - 中国境外的IAC矿床 $NTU - 硬岩重稀土 这些都是比较低调的，市值都不到10亿美元。 然后这是我之前整理的机器人供应链： $UUUU - 从独居石砂加工高纯度钕铁硼 $MP - 在Mountain Pass提取氟碳铈矿，垂直整合到国内NdFeB磁铁制造 $ALOY - 将重稀土氧化物转化为国防级合金和高温金属如钐和钆 $USAR - 加工重稀土元素并制造烧结NdFeB磁铁 $LYSDY - (Lynas Rare Earths Limited) 中国境外唯一商业化生产分离重稀土元素的公司 $NEO - (TSX): 他们是西方公司中目前唯一能大规模商业化生产实际NdFeB磁粉和合金的 $ILU - (稀土精炼): 澳大利亚的稀土精炼厂 $ARU - (ASX): 「矿石到氧化物」钕镨设施 2. 结构冶金（铌、钒、钛、铍） $ATI - 美国高性能钛和特种合金的主导生产商，用于机器人关节 $CRS - 美国特种结构合金供应商，包括高强度钢、钛和磁性材料 $FCX - 全球最大的钼生产商，行星滚柱螺丝的结构钢绝对必需 $NB - 关键的纯正公司，开发内布拉斯加州的Elk Creek项目，目标是供应国内的铌、钒和钛 $MTRN - 全球主要的铍加工商 $LGO - 领先的钒公开上市加工商 $BMM - 锗和镓的陆上供应和加工 $VNP - 用于先进传感器和电子的镓、锗和铟 $TECK - 中国境外最重要的锗生产商 $ALB - 锂提取 $EAF - 用于电池阳极的高纯度石墨 $ALTM - 供应电池所需的西方锂 $SYR - 巴拉马矿的石墨 $FCX - 人形机器人需要高达6.5公斤铜 $AW1 (ASX): 推进犹他州的West Desert项目，为高品位镓和铟提供国内地质来源 我知道还有很多... 只是有些在地缘政治上有点危险，怕我暴露给地缘政治对手看（说的就是你$AXTI） 如果你要做多西方阵营的一家，我最喜欢的前五。 图片来源：Crossdock Insights, Visual Capitalist 顺便说一下，这不是潘多拉魔盒的内容。 只是在我完成某个特定做多想法的研究之前，随意提一些有趣的名字。 半导体封装所需的关键元素，以及其他接近完全进口依赖的元素 -> 所以可能会有资金流入 只是随意的想法
原推 ↗英文原文
Normally this goes in shower thoughts but will post main timeline today. $ALOY - Rare earth powders -> high-purity metals. Magnets used in the liquid cooling pumps $NB - Scandium, lightweight metal frames for server racks. $UURAF- Separation of rare earths. $ARA - Upstream feedstock for magnets $MEI - IAC deposit outside of China. $NTU - hard-rock heavy rare earths These are all more under the radar stuff like sub <$1B. Then for robotics supply chains I made this earlier: $UUUU - Processes monazite sand into high-purity Neodymium $MP - Extracting bastnäsite at Mountain Pass and vertically integrating into domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing. $ALOY - Converting heavy rare earth oxides into defense-grade alloys and high-temperature metals like Samarium and Gadolinium $USAR- Process heavy rare earth elements and manufacture sintered NdFeB magnets $LYSDY -(Lynas Rare Earths Limited) - Only commercial producer of separated heavy rare earth elements outside of China. $NEO -(TSX): They are the only Western company commercially producing the actual NdFeB magnetic powders and alloys at scale right now. $ILU- (rare earths refinery): rare earths refinery for Australia $ARU- (ASX): "Ore-to-oxide" NdPr facility 2. Structural Metallurgy (Niobium, Vanadium, Titanium, Beryllium) $ATI - Dominant US producer of high-performance titanium and specialty alloys required for robotic joints. $CRS - US supplier of specialty structural alloys, including the high-strength steels, titanium, and magnetic $FCX - World's largest producer of Molybdenum, which is strictly necessary for the structural steel in planetary roller screws. $NB - Critical pure-play company developing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, aimed at supplying domestic Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium $MTRN - Major global processor of Beryllium $LGO - Leading publicly traded processors of Vanadium $BMM - Onshore supply and processing for like Germanium and Gallium $VNP - Gallium, Germanium, and Indium for advanced sensors and electronics $TECK - Most significant producer of Germanium outside of China $ALB - Lithium extraction $EAF - High-purity Graphite for battery anodes $ALTM - Western lithium required to supply the batteries $SYR - Balama mine for Graphite $FCX - Humanoid requires up to 6.5 kilograms of copper $AW1 (ASX): Advancing the West Desert project in Utah, for domestic geological sources for high-grade Gallium and Indium I'm aware of a lot of more... It's just some are a little dangerous to mention geopolitically in case I broadcast vulnerabilities to geopolitical adversaries reading this (looking at you $AXTI) If you're going long on a western one 5n my favorite. Image source: Crossdock Insights, Visual Capitalist FYI this is not the pandoras box stuff. Just name dropping some interesting names informally before finishing up some research on a specific long idea. Critical elements required for semiconductor packaging and others close to near-total import reliance -> so prob influx of funding going toward it. Just informal thoughts
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认为世界正在围绕石油、稀土和半导体打架，很多供应链已被武器化。
世界现在在争夺的就是： 石油、稀土和半导体。 原因在于……每一条供应链都已经被武器化了。 而且碰巧，美国最大的地缘政治对手们掌握着大多数瓶颈点。 我最早把 $AXTI 的瓶颈和光子学 + AI 超大规模云供应链联系起来。 但还有很多我不敢公开说的，单纯因为它们涉及国家安全漏洞。 不过这些主题上的投资逻辑依然成立： 大量资金会被投向这三个板块，不是为了去打它们的战争，就是为了在国内把它们保住，或者在 2026 年绕开它们。 从主题上说，如果你的组合没有重仓在全世界都在争夺的这三个方向上…… 也许你哪里弄错了？
原推 ↗英文原文
The World is fighting over: Oil, Rare Earths, and Semiconductors. The reason being... Every supply chain is being weaponized right now. And it so happens, US biggest geopolitical enemies own most of the chokepoints. I was one of the first to connect $AXTI's bottleneck to photonics + AI hyperscaler supply chains. But there are many more that I'm scared to broadcast, just due to national security vulnerabilities. But the thematic investments hold true: Massive amounts of funding will be poured into these three sectors to either go to war over them, secure them domestically, or engineer around them for 2026. As a theme, if your portfolio is not overweight into those three right sectors the entire world is fighting over... Maybe you're might be something wrong?
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说自己 12 月几乎天天发 AXTI，现在只是等市场晚一点消化信息。
@maxmay2024 是啊，我去年 12 月几乎隔天就发一次 $AXTI。 现在只是等市场在几个月后慢慢把这条信息消化掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
@maxmay2024 Yes, I posted almost every other day about $AXTI back in December. Now I'm just letting markets price in that information few months later.
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认为 AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇，并希望 SIVE 成为下一个类似标的。
@KonradJaku11615 我觉得 $AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇了吧？ 不过还是希望 $SIVE 成为下一个，真心感觉它是那种一年才会出现一次的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KonradJaku11615 I feel like $AXTI going up 5x in 3 months was legendary enough? But hope $SIVE is the next, genuinely feels like a once a year type spot.
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把 AIXA 比作光子领域的 ASML，承认其受益于资本开支周期，但自己并未持仓。
$AIXA 就像光子领域里的 $ASML，吃到了今年一轮大型资本开支周期。 即便如此，我个人也没有持仓，因为我不太喜欢半导体供应链里的设备卖家。 它们确实能明显受益，但大多数最大的受益者其实是那些可能借瓶颈抬价的公司，比如 $SNDK。 而在当前周期里，更像是 $LITE 这种 EML，或者像 $AXTI 这样的基板材料受益者。哪怕现在价格还没怎么上调。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AIXA is like the $ASML for photonics and captures a large capex cycle this year. Even so, I personally don't have positions, since I'm not a fan of equipment sellers in semi supply chains. That benefit materially, but most of the largest beneficiaries are the likely bottleneck price-hikers of the world as seen with $SNDK. And in current cycles that's EML like $LITE or substrates like $AXTI. Even though there haven't been much price hikes yet.
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回应 AXTI 财报后大跌，提醒大家要自己做尽调，不要只看价格波动。
我猜也是这样。我之所以发这种内容，是因为 $AXTI 财报后一下跌了 30%，跌到 17 美元。 有时候，有些东西对我来说很明显，但我也能理解别人看到大跌时会害怕。 我可能花了更多时间去做尽调，也更早建立了自己对 $SIVE 的信念。但我一直鼓励大家，在自己下单前先建立自己的判断。 不然，人很容易只盯着价格波动，而忽略了基本面的变化。
原推 ↗英文原文
I guess that's true. I had to post something like this after $AXTI dropped 30% to $17 after their earnings report. Sometimes, things feel obvious to me, but I can see why others see a large drop but might be fearful. I probably had a lot more time to do DD and build my own conviction on $SIVE. But I always encourage people to build their own before entering any trade themselves. Otherwise, they might react to prices over fundamental shifts.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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强调关键的是产能占比而不是供应商数量，因为上游材料仍来自中国。
@be25458 关键看的是你生产的产能占比，而不是供应商数量。 当制造 InP 基板所需的上游材料都来自中国时，供应商数量根本不重要。 我说的就是为什么 $AXTI / Vital 是一类瓶颈，而 Sumitomo / $AXTI 又是另一类瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@be25458 What matters is % of capacity you produce, not # of suppliers. The # of suppliers don't matter when the upstream materials come needed to make InP substrates come from China. That's what I mean when there's two different bottlenecks with $AXTI / Vital, then Sumitomo / $AXTI.
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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承认出口管制风险，但强调若中国限制出口，西方超大规模云 AI 建设也会被拖慢。
@TheMathMan70 我一直都承认出口管制风险。但我说的是，如果 $AXTI 下跌 + 中国全面实施出口管制，那么西方超大规模云厂商的 AI 建设也会一起受阻（包括 $LITE 和其他公司）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TheMathMan70 I’ve always acknowledged the export control risk. But what I’ve said is if $AXTI goes down + China goes full on export control, the Western hyperscaler AI buildout stalls as well (including $LITE and the others)
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解释 AXTI 的两层瓶颈：上游原料/精炼与 InP 基板生产。
@AlphaAllegro 这里其实有两个不同的瓶颈。一个是 $AXTI 控制的原料 / 精炼环节。 另一个是 InP 基板生产…… 如果你拿不到材料，就做不出晶圆。所以这也是为什么 AXT 本身天然就极其有价值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AlphaAllegro There’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refineries that $AXTI controls. And then is InP substrate production… If you can’t get the materials, you can’t make the wafers. Which is why AXT is inherently super valuable
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引用 LITE 电话会，认为管理层等于承认 InP 基板是光子瓶颈，AXTI 因而拥有定价权。
$LITE 财报电话会原文： “最让我夜里睡不着的事情是：基板。相比之下，反而没那么担心反应器和把合适的工具装进 fab，虽然这也不是完全没挑战。” 他们基本上是在直接说 $AXTI 是光子领域的瓶颈。 尤其如果 InP 基板会让 $LITE 的 CEO 睡不着觉的话。 我过去几个月一直在提这点：如果 AXT 控制基板供应，它就对 $LITE、$COHR 以及美国 AI 建设拥有很大的定价权。 我在 X 上看到了很多误读，说什么“和住友签了七年协议”。但他们说的明明是现在就已经有供应紧张。而且那份协议也不代表 7 年内供应就一定够，尤其当中国开始对日本供应链制造晶圆所需的上游原料 / 材料实施出口管制时更是如此。 这甚至还没算上光子产业真正开始放量。 我关于 $AXTI 瓶颈的论点正在实时兑现，而 $LITE 又给了我们新的确认：InP 基板就是瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE Transcript from Conference Call: "The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates. Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge." They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics. Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night. I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout. I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then. This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up. My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.
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愿意在 7B 市值附近买 AAOI，但当前 AXT 估值偏高，暂时不加仓。
如果 $AAOI 的市值在大约 70 亿美元，我会考虑买入。 $AXTI 现在 32 亿美元的估值就有点偏高了，因为 SMM 上并没有出现 7N 铟的重大非标上涨。我还在拿着现有仓位，但出于时机考虑，可能不会继续加仓。 长期看其实影响也没那么大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd be a buyer at $AAOI here at a ~$7B MC. $AXTI $3.2B is a tad more elevated now, given there wasn't any major spike of 7N indium nonstandard on SMM. I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes. In the long run, doesn't really matter much.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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强调股票长期是正和游戏，价值创造最终让所有人受益。
@SaiseiInvesting 股票是正和游戏！所以从长期看，价值创造会让所有人受益。 如果看 $LITE 或 $AXTI，过去几个月基本就是一路直线上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SaiseiInvesting Stocks are positive sum! So everyone benefits long term from value creation. If we look at $LITE or $AXTI it’s just been a straight line up past few months
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回顾自己通过光子和存储超级周期跑赢指数的经历。
我可能只是比指数多跑赢了一点点？ 其实就只是搭上了从 $AXTI 到 $SNDK 的光子和存储超级周期。 现在这样做也只是为了好玩。 https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
原推 ↗英文原文
I may have outperformed the index just a tiny bit? It’s as simple as riding the Photonics and Memory Supercycles from $AXTI to $SNDK. Just doing this for fun now. https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
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认为出口管制虽然短期双刃剑，但长期会让 AXT 在 InP 供应链中更有控制力。
不会啊？出口管制对他们反而是好事，因为它会伤到像住友这样的竞争对手，而这些上游材料本来就必须从中国来。 因为他们需要这些材料来做 InP 基板。 短期看这是把双刃剑，但长期会让 $AXTI 对 InP 供应链拥有更多控制力。 正如你现在看到的，光子建设最终依赖 AXT，而这也让它成为供应链顶端极其关键的瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
No? Export controls are good for them since it harms their competitors like Sumitomo as upstream materials the need come from China. Since they require them to make InP substrates. It’s a double edged sword short but gives $AXTI more control over the InP supply chain in the long run. As you’re seeing now, the photonics buildout relies on AXT, which now makes them a critical chokepoint at the top of the supply chain
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拿“每天一个苹果”调侃自己总能提前发现瓶颈，并感谢夸奖。
@R_o_LwSzr 一天一苹果，瓶颈远离我？不过我不吃苹果，所以我能更早把它们看出来。 我在光子上的判断，比如 $SIVE 或 $AXTI，一直都挺准的，不过还是谢谢你的夸奖！
原推 ↗英文原文
@R_o_LwSzr An apple a day keeps the bottleneck away? But I don’t eat apples, so I’m able to spot them early. My photonics calls have been spot on like $SIVE or $AXTI, but appreciate the nice comment!
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提出关键问题是 2028 年光子是否会成为大事，如果是，AXTI 可能会成为重大瓶颈。
@gahhhbor 更好的问题应该是……到 2028 年，光子会不会成为一件大事？ 如果会，那 $AXTI 很可能会成为一个类似 $SNDK 的重大瓶颈，而我个人会继续持有。 https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
原推 ↗英文原文
@gahhhbor Better question to ask is.. is photonics going to be a major thing in 2028? If it is, $AXTI is probably going to be a major $SNDK like bottleneck, and I’m personally holding. https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
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感叹自己对 AXT 的判断再次兑现，股价创出新高。
天啊，我对 $AXTI 的 thesis 也太传奇了吧？ AXT 今天又涨了 20%，到 58 美元创出新高。 很高兴自己判断对了，短时间内的收益甚至把多年持有 $NVDA 的回报都比下去了。 https://t.co/xEJJDtgFaP
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy ****, my $AXTI thesis was legendary? AXT is up another 20% today to ATHs at $58. Happy I got this right, gains in a short time blew away holding $NVDA over the years. https://t.co/xEJ7DtgFaP
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称分析师最初只给 AXTI 8 美元目标价，现在两个月后已到 58 美元。
@AdamJasensky 大多数分析师当时只给 $AXTI 8 美元目标价，而现在两个月后已经到 58 美元了。 他们通常只是噪音，我个人会忽略；不过里面有些评论，比如经营利润预测，还是有帮助的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AdamJasensky Most analysts were giving $AXTI a $8 PT and now it’s $58 two months later. They’re usually noise I personally ignore, some comments inside them like operating income projections are helpful
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用日文表示不认为光子股只是短周期行情，未来几年会成为 AI 扩容的新架构。
🙇 我不认为像 $AXTI 这样的光子（photonics）股票，只是短期周期的题材。未来几年里，它们应该会成为扩展 AI 的新架构！ 我觉得这些公司都还处在非常早期，所以我个人会继续持有。其他人当然也可以自由获利了结！
原推 ↗英文原文
🙇$AXTI のようなフォトニクス（光技術）銘柄が、短期的なサイクルで終わるとは思っていません。今後数年間で、AIをスケールさせるための新しいアーキテクチャになるはずです！ これらの企業はすべてまだ本当に初期段階にあると思うので、私自身はホールド（継続保有）するつもりです。他の方が利確（利益確定）するのはご自由にどうぞ！
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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总结自己的研究流程：先发 thesis，再做跟进研究，最后在 thesis 兑现后庆祝并持有。
谢谢！ 我的风格通常是： -> 先发 thesis 帖 -> 再做后续研究（比如 $AXTI 的 7N 铟出口管制、瓶颈） -> thesis 兑现后再庆祝 如果之后也没什么新东西，就继续拿着。 市场里大部分钱，都是靠找出别人不知道的东西赚到的，所以我现在就是在继续做这类功课，尤其是 $SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! My style is usually: -> Thesis post -> Follow up research (eg. $AXTI 7n indium export controls, bottleneck) -> Then celebration when thesis plays out And then just sitting on it (if there's nothing too new). Most of the money in markets is to be made finding out stuff others don't, so just doing some of that work now with $SIVE.
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
原推 ↗英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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说自己在 $12 时就感觉 AXT 能到 140 美元，并强调自己的判断有尽调支持。
@FoundersX76 我的意思是，我在 $AXTI 还在 12 美元的时候就“感觉”它能到 140 美元……现在 2-3 个月就到 50 美元左右了？ 当然，我不是只靠感觉，我会用尽调来支撑这种感觉，比如超大规模云供应链映射、营收估算或者估值比较。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FoundersX76 I mean I "felt" $AXTI could hit $140 when I was back at $12... And now it's ~$50 in 2-3 months? Of course I back my feeling with DD like hyperscaler supply chain mapping, revenue estimates, or valuation comparisons.
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认为 SIVE 可能会重演 LITE 和 AXTI 的重估路径，AI 正把商品的定义改写。
$LITE 和 $AXTI 以前作为周期性的电信供应商，被折腾了很多年。 然后它们现在又都变成了整个 AI 建设的核心，因为光子技术而被重估了几千个百分点。 我有种感觉，$SIVE 在硅光和 CPO 上也会是一样的路。 AI 已经改变了像存储这种曾经被视为“商品”的定义，给了它们极强、结构性的需求。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE and $AXTI had problems for years as a cyclical telecom provider. Then they’re both now the center of the entire AI buildout with photonics and got rerated a few thousand percent. I just have a feeling it’s the same with $SIVE for silicon photonics and CPO. AI changed the definition of former “commodities” like memory and gave them exteme and structral demand
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惊讶于 SIVE 只值约 2 亿美元却承担着超大规模云光子供应链的关键激光角色。
我越研究 Sivers <$SIVE / $SIVEF>，越会想： 给超大规模云光子供应链供激光的公司…… 怎么才值大约 2 亿美元市值？ 那些买它们激光再重新封装的公司，现在市值都已经 10 亿到 40 亿美元以上了？ 连还没产品的 SV AI 公司都能值几十亿美元？ 还在开发阶段、还没收入的光子公司，像 $LWLG 这种都已经 10 亿美元以上？ 结果真正让硅光 / CPO 的 scale-up 和 scale-out 跑起来的公司。 而且还是真有营收的。 却只值 2 亿美元…… 这让我想起最早期的 $AXTI，当时我完全没意识到，一家市值 5 亿美元的公司竟然掌控着 InP 基板 / 原料供应链。 要么我完全错了……要么这就是市场上最被低估、最不为人知的光子公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
The more I look into Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > the more I wonder: How is the laser company for the hyperscaler photonic supply chains… Valued at ~$200M USD MC? All the companies that buy and repackage their lasers are now worth $1-4B+? Pre-product SV AI companies are worth billions? Pre revenue Photonic companies in development phase line $LWLG are worth $1B+? Yet the company that makes the silicon photonics/CPO scale up & scale out work. And has actual revenue. ~$200M… Reminds me of early $AXTI when I had zero clue how a company worth $500M MC controlled the InP substrate/feedstock supply chain for photonics. Either I’m completely wrong… or this is the most undervalued and unknown photonics company on the market.
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偏好半垄断和上游瓶颈，认为 SIVE 的上行空间最大，其次可能是 AAOI。
我一般都更喜欢半垄断型公司……所以基板层面的 $AXTI 和 $SOI 大概是我最喜欢的？ $TSEM 和 $COHR 是我两个一直很稳的复利标的。 至于上行空间最大，我确实觉得 $SIVE 可能会拿下下一只 $LITE 的位置。也许 $AAOI 排第二吧……
原推 ↗英文原文
I tend to like semi-monopolies... So $AXTI and $SOI on substrate level are probably kinda my favorites? $TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders. As for highest upside, I do think $SIVE takes the crown as the next potential $LITE. Maybe $AAOI second place. And $AXTI third?
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给出自己在这批光子名字里的偏好组合，并列出当前周期最喜欢的标的。
@GOATTRADER5184 所以我自己从这堆里挑出来的标的有： $SIVE、$TSEM、$AEHR、$SOI。 我喜欢尽量挑赢家。至于当前周期，我更喜欢的是： $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE
原推 ↗英文原文
@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were: $SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI. I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's: $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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认为 CPO TAM 呈指数级增长，自己看多 SIVE、AXTI 等受益于 architectural shift 的标的。
看看这张图就知道了。未来几年 CPO TAM 是直接一条直线上去的。 市场通常会害怕那种“一次性”周期，但这看起来是指数型的。 我说过 $SIVE 可能是下一个 $LITE，所以我会长期持有。基板供应商比如 $AXTI 和 $SOI 也是一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just look at this graph. Straight line up for CPO TAM next few years. Normally markets are scared of one-and-done cycles, but this looks exponential. I said $SIVE could be the next $LITE so I’m long for awhile. Same with substrate providers like $AXTI and $SOI. As for current transceiver bottlenecks, would re-evaluate next year.
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分析光通信从EML到SiPh架构变化中的投资机会与瓶颈环节
Alpha就是捕捉从当前EML到明年SiPh(硅光子)/CW DFB架构变化带来的机会。 所以像Soitec($SOI)、$TSEM、$SIVE、$POET这类还没被重新定价的新标的。 目前瓶颈环节是像$AAOI这样最近业绩预期爆表、还有很大上涨空间的股票。但我还是认为$COHR和$LITE也有被重新定价的空间。 然后还有用于各种光电器件的InP(磷化铟)衬底/原料，比如$AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is capturing the rotation from the current EML to SiPh / CW DFB architectural change next year. So new stuff like Soitec ( $SOI ), $TSEM, $SIVE, and $POET type names that haven't been re-rated yet. Current bottleneck would be stuff like $AAOI that recently had blowout projections and have a long way to go. But I still think there's room for $COHR and $LITE to be re-rated as well. Then there's InP substrate/feedstock for photonics like $AXTI which is used across everything.
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旺宏(2337)年初涨201%超越$AXTI，因填补三星/Hynix离去的legacy NAND市场获益。
哇哦，旺宏(2337)就这么轻松超越了 $AXTI？ 201.04% 对比 188% 的年初至今收益率，太难受了。 旺宏看起来就像是台湾的小 $SNDK，市值 $78.9 亿... 它们是全球最大的 NOR Flash memory、SLC/MLC NAND 供应商。 所以当三星、SK Hynix 和美光离开传统制程节点后，它们可以自由提价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah, Macronix (TPE: 2337) is out here casually outperforming $AXTI? 201.04% vs. 188% Year to Date return, feels bad. Macronix does look like the mini $SNDK of Taiwan at a $7.89B MC... They're the world’s largest suppliers of NOR flash memory, SLC/MLC NAND. So they get free price-hike reign now off legacy nodes that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron left behind.
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Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
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调侃大家在 TSEM、AXTI 等标的上赚钱了。
@TacticzH 哈哈。很高兴大家在 $TSEM 或 $AXTI 之类的标的上赚到钱了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TacticzH Lmao. Glad people made money on stuff like $TSEM or $AXTI and others.
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宣布 AXTI 已突破 50 美元，称自己最早识别出它是 AI 光子建构的关键瓶颈。
$AXTI 现在已经超过 50 美元了。 我当时是第一个把它识别成 AI 建设里、光子领域的下一个重大瓶颈的人。 你听了吗，匿名者？ https://t.co/pPkFqZXmuC
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is now above $50+. I was the first to identify it as the next major bottleneck for the AI buildout with photonics. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/pPkFqZXmuC
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作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。
只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月，粉丝增长到 10 万+： - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者（涨了 4 倍+） - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制，针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久，这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子，如果看过，抱歉？ - 预测了韩国市场波动上升，并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站，以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师，围绕我那篇关于 Soitec（$SOI）的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者，比如 Gold Reserve，而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合，结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道！ 我其他很多 thesis 帖，比如 $LITE，也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射，以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷！ 短短两个月里！我喜欢保持谦虚，但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是，这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播，几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么，也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.
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强调自己在 12-15 美元时就最早写过 AXT thesis。
@9chaku 你知道吗，我才是最早在 $12-15 时写 $AXTI thesis 帖的人？ https://t.co/nzOY0RornJ
原推 ↗英文原文
@9chaku You do realize I was the original person did the thesis post on $AXTI back at $12-15? https://t.co/nzOY0RornJ
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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解释机构如何先做付费研究再慢慢吸筹，自己公开发帖就是在打破这种模式。
谢谢，也正是这样。 通常机构会先发现 Soitec（$SOI）和硅光之间的关系，然后等它估值被压低，再花 2000 美元+ 出一份研究报告，发给其他对冲基金，接着这些客户在市场还没反应过来前慢慢买入。 而我把这些内容公开发出来后，所有 alpha 会立刻消失并被计价进去。 所以有些人会不爽，其实也说得通。传统分析师很讨厌 X 上这种免费的社交媒体研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you and exactly. Normally, institutions figures out the Soitec ( $SOI ) substrate - silicon photonics connection and waits for depressed valuations, charges $2000+, sends the report to other hedge funds, and those clients slowly buy the stock over a few weeks before the rest of the market catches on. When I post it to to everyone, any alpha evaporates and immediately gets priced in. So makes sense why some might be upset. Traditional analysts hate free social media research on X.
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强调自己在发 AXT 这类帖子前会做非常深的研究，并尽量用简明方式总结。
谢谢！我做研究的时候，DD 其实比大家看到的要深得多。 在我发布像 $AXTI 这样的内容之前，我会研究 7n 铟衍生物、出口管制、下游收发器 / 激光器预测、上游供应链控制、行业预测、基本面、稀释风险等等。 然后我再把这些去掉术语，整理成一个 TLDR。 这样对不太技术化的受众会更友好，他们也能真正理解一家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! When I do research, my DD is actually much, much deeper. Before I publish something like $AXTI, I do research on 7n indium derivatives, export controls, downstream supplier transceiver/laser projections, upstream supply chain control, industry projections, fundamentals, dilution risk, etc. Then I summarize it without all the jargon in a TLDR format. This vibes a lot better with less-technical audiences to help them actually understand a company.
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认为 SOI 的重估是因为自己把研究免费公开给散户，并借此解释为什么机构不喜欢。
我不觉得 Citi 或 Kepler 的任何“分析师”应该对 $SOI 为什么会这样感到惊讶： 一个 1 倍账面价值、在 CPO / 硅光基板里几乎垄断的公司（现在大概 1.4 倍）。 会被重估 40%+。 尤其是在一篇易懂的分析被传播出去之后，人们就能自己建立信念。 时代变了： 机构想让那些“只会发热门、没脑子的网红”去推荐 Paypal 和其他已经过热的股票。 或者鼓动 WSB 的人去买 $TSLA 的 0DTE 看涨期权。 而我是在做一个被低估的、十亿美元级欧洲瓶颈 / 断点公司的供应链研究。然后还把研究免费给了大家。 不是把它锁在 2000 美元+ 的机构研究报告后面。 免费。 我是在教育散户，告诉他们我自己是怎么理解供应链瓶颈、光子和基本面的。 然后再把这些整理成足够简单的 thesis，让大家也能形成自己的观点。 而且第一次，散户在 X 上能够比机构更早地看到那些基础面瓶颈。 看看 $AXTI：我在约 5 亿美元市值时就发给所有散户看了。 现在机构正在涌入，把它推到 26 亿美元以上，因为它是光子行业关键的 InP 基板供应商。 这就是一句“说破的潜台词”： 当一个免费、受欢迎的 X 账号，成功教育了散户去理解像 Soitec 这样在基础面上被严重低估的技术公司时， 它就彻底破坏了机构靠付费墙研究去抢在散户前面的能力。 没有理由去淡化这种趋势。 我相信股票是正和游戏，所以没必要守着信息不分享。
原推 ↗英文原文
Don't think any "Analyst" from Citi or Kepler should be surprised why $SOI: A 1X book CPO/Silicon Photonics Substrate virtual monopoly (now ~1.4). Gets re-rated 40%+. Especially after a digestable analysis gets distributed for people to build their own conviction on. Times have changed: Institutions want dumb, popular "influencers" to publish longs on Paypal and other overbought stocks. Or encourage folks on WSB to buy 0DTE call options on $TSLA. I'm doing supply-chain research on an undervalued billion dollar European bottlenecks/chokepoints. Then gave that research away for free. Not paywalled for $2000+ behind institutional research notes. Free. I'm educating retail on my own thought process regarding supply chain bottlenecks, photonics, and fundamentals. Then putting that into a simple enough thesis, so they can form their own opinions. And for the first time, retail is able to front-run institutions on fundamental bottlenecks. Just look at $AXTI: I posted at ~$500m valuation for every retail investor. And now, institutions are piling in, sending it to $2.6 billion+ as the fundamental InP substrate provider to the photonics industry. This is the quiet part said out loud: When a free and popular X account successfully educates retail on highly strategic, fundamentally undervalued tech companies like Soitec: It completely disrupts the institutions' ability to paywall research and frontrun retail investors. There’s no reason to downplay the trend. I believe stocks are a positive sum game, so there's no reason to gatekeep information.
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回看自己在 X 上的大部分一周收益都为正，并列出多个强势持仓。
我刚刚跳出自己的小圈子看了一眼。 X 上大部分人的状态都是： - 组合一片深红。 - 对着 1 周图发 doompost。 - 在担心原油。 而我大多数个股的一周回报，好像都还是绿的？ $AXTI +46.9% $SOI +48.59% $NBIS +29.59% $IQE +27.92% $TSEM +13.99% 诸如此类……也许只是运气？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just looked outside my little bubble. Majority of folks on X are: - posting deep red portfolios. - doomposting 1W charts - fearing about oil Feels like most of my individuals stock 1W returns are way in the green? $AXTI up +46.9% $SOI up +48.59% $NBIS up +29.59% $IQE up +27.92% $TSEM up +13.99% And so on… maybe luck?
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强调 AI 不能很好地做多跳连接和供应链映射，人类需要重新核对供应链 alpha。
AI 在多跳连接（多个阶段之间的关联）和供应链映射上非常弱。 这也包括去考虑那些并不直接和某家公司绑定、但会带来未来潜在瓶颈的意外事件（alpha）。 比如说，假设 $AAOI 在财报电话会上暗示，超大规模云厂商把市场上能买到的光收发器都买空了。 AI 不会自动把这件事和 $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）基板需求联系起来。 所以人类重新核对、重新梳理就很重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
AIはマルチホップ接続（複数の段階を経た繋がり）やサプライチェーンのマッピングが非常に不得意です。 これには、企業に直接結びついていない関連事象に基づく将来の潜在的なボトルネックのような、予期せぬ事象（アルファ）を考慮に入れることも含まれます。 例えば $AAOI が決算説明会で、ハイパースケーラーが市場にある光トランシーバーをありったけ買い占めていると示唆したとします。 AIはそれを $AXTI のInP（インジウムリン）基板の需要と関連付けることはありません。だからこそ、人間が再確認することが重要なのです。
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称赞光子供应链总结，并表示自己更偏好高 beta 标的而不是设备商。
从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，这份光子供应链标的总结做得真好！ 为了最大化收益，我个人更偏好更高 beta 的标的，而不是像 $AIXA 这种设备商，或者爬坡较慢的名字。 尤其我预计光子会成为 AI 的新范式，所以我绝对不想错过这波。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI から $AAOI まで、フォトニクス・サプライチェーン銘柄の素晴らしいまとめですね！ 利益を最大化するために、私個人としては、$AIXAのような装置メーカーや立ち上がりの遅い銘柄よりも、よりハイベータな銘柄へのエクスポージャーを選びました。 特に、フォトニクスがAIの新しいパラダイムになると予想しているので、この波には絶対に乗り遅れたくないんです。
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研究了从 Oxford 到 AIXA 的光子设备公司，但认为多数不会像 AAOI、AXTI、SOI 那样暴涨。
我确实研究过从 Oxford 到 $AIXA 这些和光子设备相关的卖家。 它们会因为光子需求而明显受益，跟 $ASML 那种资本开支周期很像。 但我不觉得它们里有太多公司会像 $AAOI、$AXTI，甚至 $SOI 那样涨 300%+。 不像那些更大的对冲基金 / 机构，我是在用自己的投资组合去追增长，所以只要机会还在，我对很多高 beta 的名字并不排斥。
原推 ↗英文原文
I did look through all the photonics equipment related from sellers from Oxford to $AIXA. They get a material bump from photonics demand, similar to $ASML capex cycles. But I don't think many of them will end up 300%+ like $AAOI, $AXTI, or even $SOI. Unlike larger hedge funds/firms, I'm chasing growth in my personal portfolio, which is why I'm fine with a lot of higher beta names as long as opportunity is there.
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认为买 Sumitomo 比买 AXT 更像是在降低弹性；AVGO 的光学故事也不如 ASIC 逻辑直接。
这就像买住友而不是 $AXTI。 你买的是一个大巨头，但对这个行业增长的直接暴露更低。一个可能年初至今涨 15%，另一个可能涨 300%。 把 $AVGO 当成光学相关故事去买，而它很大一部分增长其实来自 ASIC，也不是个好主意。不过作为长期多头，它本身还是很不错的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Same as going long on Sumitomo instead of $AXTI. You're buying a big giant for lower direct exposure to the sector growth. Once might be up 15% YTD, the other might be up 300%. Buying $AVGO for optical related stuff when a large portion of their growth comes from ASICs is not a great idea. But as a long itself, it's solid.
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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指出 AXTI 站在光子供应链最上游
InP 衬底，以及制造它们所需的原材料。 基本上，如果你一路追到整个光子供应链的最上游，也就是 $GOOGL 的 TPU 或 $LITE 所用到的那一层，那里站着的就是 $AXTI，像宝可梦冠军一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DhruTech InP substrates and raw materials needed to build them. Basically if you go to the very very top of the entire photonics supply chains that $GOOGL TPUs or $LITE uses. There sits $AXTI as the Pokémon champion
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把 TSEM 当稳健复合器，把 AXTI 当高弹性标的
有 $TSEM 这种更稳的光子复合器。 然后还有我那匹打了类固醇、装了火箭发动机的赛马：$AXTI。 我的仓位已经涨了 550%+。 而 AXT 今天又涨了 10.38%。 $NVDA 的回报都被甩在后面了；几个月前把 AXT 识别为 InP 瓶颈，很多人因此实现了代际财富。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s $TSEM, my safer photonics compounder. Then there’s my race horse on steroids, with a rocket ship attached: $AXTI. My positions are up over 550%+. And AXT is up another 10.38% today. $NVDA returns got left in the dust, as identifying AXT as the InP bottleneck few months ago was generational wealth to many.
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总结十条研究股票时常见误区
我在 X 上一遍又一遍看到的 10 个常见谬误。 也是我自己做研究时最重要的警惕项之一： 1. 处在“拥挤”交易里的名字，比如 $LITE 或 $COHR，并不意味着这些票不会继续涨。 （看看 Nvidia 从 2022 到 2026 年就知道了。） 2. 不要把供应链里的瓶颈和关键公司（比如 SpaceX 或 Nvidia）直接等同于股价回报。 真正重要的是它如何转化为实质性的经营利润。 我提 $AXTI 的原因，就是它大概率能因这个瓶颈涨价。 3. 内幕卖出是极端噪音。 我永远不会拿这个去推导预测，更不会据此算市值应该是多少。 4. 再重复一遍：技术分析只是指标，不是圣经。 别再在我的 Soitec 帖子下面贴 TA 然后说“超涨了！！！”了，完全不看基本面、催化剂或宏观。 尤其在基本面发生剧烈变化的时候，TA 更没意义，比如 60 亿美元的稀释，或者像 $BULL、$CRCL 这样的 IPO 流通盘锁定。 5. 稀释是有区别的。 ATM 和可转债不一样，可转债和贷款也不一样。 这里面的细节非常复杂。 有些会带来更好的股东回报，有些则更伤人，比如 $IREN 那 60 亿美元 ATM。 流通盘变化、ATM 规模和市值的相对关系，都要算进去。 6. 市场是前瞻的。差别只在于它往前看多远。 别总拿过去的收入指引去证明估值合理，因为市场已经在定价未来增长，比如 $TSEM 在光子业务起量时的前瞻增长。 7. 收入/毛利/利润都极其极其复杂。 利润可以藏在税务减记里，利润率也可以藏在利润表别的地方，比如 opex 或折旧。 所以拿“毛利/利润”（比如 $IREN）去和其他 neocloud 相比，若没有把会计口径标准化，其实没什么意义。 8. 净利润不等于 GAAP 净利润。 像 $SNAP 这类公司的真实盈利能力，可能被 SBC 之类的项目掩盖掉。 当公司对媒体宣布非 GAAP 净利润 5 亿美元时，它提交给 SEC 的正式 GAAP 净亏损可能因为 SBC 变成 1.5 亿美元。 9. 流通盘动态 + 稀释很重要。 你可以说“这公司市值 1.5 亿，利润 3000 万”，但如果你忘了 X 行权价背后还有巨大的稀释压力，那你的研究基本就被扔进垃圾桶了。 10. 一定要把收入增长 / TAM 放进去。 公司一年可以增长 200%，但如果 TAM 像金融科技那样最终见顶，营收增速迟早会掉下来。 这就是为什么 $RKLB 会因为无限的太空 TAM 预期拿到溢价，而其他在金融科技里只增长 40% Y/Y 的公司却拿不到。
原推 ↗英文原文
Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.
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提醒别在 AXT 底部投降
@Gubloinvestor 下次别在 $AXTI 见底的时候就直接投降了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Gubloinvestor maybe don't capitulate at the bottom with $AXTI next time
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总结低市值往往对应更高重估空间
一般经验法则： 市值越低，比如 $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR 这样往上排， 重估后的上行空间往往越大。 当然，前提不是像 $AAOI 那样如果产能目标真兑现了还能把收入做 10 倍，不过这还得看它能不能做到。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KaneCapz General rule of thumb: Lower the MC eg. $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR, etc. Higher upside from re-rating. That's unless you 10x revenue like $AAOI if they hit capacity projections, but we'll see if they do.
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回顾别人当年也拿 CEO 卖股说 AXT 不行
@FossilWhisperer 这些评论当年 $AXTI 还在 12 美元时我就听过。 “CEO 卖个不停，这说明他对业务没信心。” “现在盘前已经跌了 20%，经典走势。” 结果时间一拉长，股价直接翻了四倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FossilWhisperer These were the same comments back when $AXTI was $12 by the way. "the CEO can't stop selling, this is signaling lack of faith in the business" "it’s down 20% pre-market right now. classic." Fast forward, it's quadrupled in price. https://t.co/O1yZtR9etO
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短期会有更好的买点，但长期都看涨
@Jacktecau990 短期里总会有更好的买点，比如 $SOI、$AAOI 或 $AXTI。 但从长期看，我预计它们都会上涨，因为光子会成为 AI 的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jacktecau990 There's always going to be better buying short term opportunities like with $SOI, $AAOI, or $AXTI. But long term I expect them all to go up as photonics becomes the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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确认 AXT 的 InP 衬底瓶颈逻辑仍在强化
这和我最初对 $AXTI 的判断一致： InP 衬底就是光子产业里的巨大瓶颈。 而且最近 7N 高纯铟（非标准品）在 SMM 上已经创下历史新高。 $AXTI 和这类数据的相关性非常高，非常非常高。 跟踪 SMM 以及其他市场的衍生数据，可能是你能拿到的最好洞察。 需求看起来一点都没有放缓。 我们甚至还没到 NAND 那种式样的涨价阶段。
原推 ↗英文原文
As expected from my original $AXTI thesis: InP substrates is a massive bottleneck for photonics. And: 7N Indium High Purity Indium (non standard) has reached all time highs on SMM, recently. $AXTI is very. highly. correlated. Tracking derivatives on SMM and other markets is likely the best insight you'll get into performance. Demand does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. We haven't gotten to the point of NAND-style price hikes yet either.
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梳理 Nvidia 光子链条上的上下游关系
@BrokeDadCapital 基本上，$NVDA 先是抛出很多线索，然后这些线索之间还有几层传导关系。 比如：$SLOIF -> $TSEM -> $NVDA 或者 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BrokeDadCapital Basically, there’s a lot of breadcrumbs by $NVDA then there’s few hop relations with those breadcrumbs. Eg. $SLOIF -> $TSEM -> $NVDA Or maybe $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE.
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认为 upstream 供应商未必都已被定价
“都已经被定价了。” 但与此同时，$TSEM 年初至今还在 -1.89%。 很多散户其实比机构更早动手。 $AXTI 就是最好的例子——它在过去三个月里翻了 4 倍。 对于像 $SOI 和 $TSEM 这种利基上游供应商，我还是不太相信“已经定价”这个说法；但对 $LITE 和 $COHR，我大概率会认同。
原推 ↗英文原文
“Priced in”. Meanwhile $TSEM is chilling at -1.89% YTD. Lot of retail are earlier than institutions. $AXTI was the perfect example before it went up 4x in the past three months. Don’t quite think so with niche upstream suppliers like $SOI and $TSEM but likely yes to $LITE and $COHR
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用 Nvidia GTC 前夕串联光子供应链
$NVDA 的 GTC 就在下周。 市场也在猜，Nvidia 的新硅光架构会公布哪些名字。 > $TSEM 与 $NVDA 合作硅光 > $NVDA 投资了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以锁定供应链 > $AXTI 是 InP 衬底的瓶颈 > Soitec（$SOI）在硅光的 SOI 衬底上几乎是垄断 嗯，$NVDA 的供应链里到底会有哪些公司呢？线索完全没有嘛！ 还是等发布会再看吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA GTC is next week. And markets are wondering what names will be announced with Nvidia’s new silicon photonics architecture. > $TSEM works with $NVDA for silicon photonics > $NVDA invested in both $COHR and $LITE to secure supply chains > $AXTI a bottleneck for InP substrates > Soitec ( $SOI ) a monopoly around SOI substrates for silicon photonics Hmmm. There’s zero clues to what companies might be in the supply chain of $NVDA! Better wait for the event to find out?
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把整条光子供应链都买下来并不奇怪
@demarscrypto 如果你认为 AI 的新范式就是光子化，那把整条光子供应链都买下来其实没什么问题。 衬底：$AXTI、$SOI 组装 / 激光 / 收发器 / 供应链：$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR 晶圆厂：$TSEM 这些就是我喜欢的名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto There's nothing wrong with buying the entire photonics supply chain if you see it being the new paradigm of AI. Substrates: $AXTI, $SOI Assembly/Laser/Transceivers/supply chain: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR Foundry: $TSEM Were the names I've liked.
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补充说如果周一问会把 AXTI 也算进去
@Meatusmax @jaegerjaque7 他们是今天才问的。 $AXTI 已经是历史新高了，要是周一问我，我当时就会把它算进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Meatusmax @jaegerjaque7 They said today. $AXTI is all time high, if they asked me Monday I would have included it
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调侃自己喜欢的几个名字现在都涨了
@iiiiiiiivanth 哈哈，恭喜。 我之前最喜欢的两个是 $AAOI 和 $AXTI，年初最喜欢的是 $LITE。 现在 $SOI 也加入这个队伍了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@iiiiiiiivanth lol congrats. $AAOI and $AXTI were my two favorites earlier. $LITE was at the start of the year. Now $SOI has joined the party
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感叹 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 46 美元
@banker092 我也不知道，$AXTI 已经从 12 美元涨到 46 美元，而且看起来根本没停过。
原推 ↗英文原文
@banker092 Idk $AXTI got sent from $12 to $46 and hasn’t looked back
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调侃 IQE 涨太多了需要休息
@ryansfinance $IQE 从上个月开始已经涨了 136% 了，哈哈，有时候确实得歇一歇。 不是我所有的票都能像 $AAOI 或 $AXTI 那样每天直线往上冲 8%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance $IQE is literally up 136% since last month lol, sometimes things need a break. Not all my picks like $AAOI or $AXTI can go in a vertical line up 8% a day. https://t.co/lxJqKT5b5e
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认为 Soitec 因光子垄断继续大涨只是开始
看来市场确实喜欢隐藏的光子垄断？ Soitec 盘中又涨了 16%。 如果你看 $NVDA 主导的 CPO 光子架构起量：这几乎是抛物线式的。 $SOI 很可能会成为一只可以拿很多年的票，因为它是 CPO 的衬底垄断者。 而且最重要的是，下周还有即将到来的 $NVDA GTC 发布会。 这大概率会提醒机构去寻找他们错过的玩家，比如 $AXTI，现在再加上 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies? Soitec is up 16% intraday. If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA: It’s parabolic. $SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO. And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week. Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.
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认为 AXTI 才是最接近 Soitec 的对标
@brener_moshe 完全不同。 Soitec 最接近的对标其实是 $AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@brener_moshe Way way different. Closest comparison to Soitec is $AXTI
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用“选孩子”比喻 AXTI 与 SLOIF 的偏好
@afgmantu 让我要在 $AXTI 和 $SLOIF 之间选一个，跟问我两个孩子里你更喜欢谁没什么区别。
原推 ↗英文原文
@afgmantu Making me choose between $AXTI and $SLOIF is the same thing as asking, who’s your favorite kid? if you had two
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改变看法买入Soitec，认为CPO垄断地位叠加NVDA催化剂有望带来3倍回报。
改变了对Soitec ($SLOIF)的看法，建了一个约43美元的大仓位以获取CPO（共封装光学）敞口。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学及这一架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的溢价估值，垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法和分析师可能会对市场份额感到困惑，但在SOI基板上这实际上是垄断——他们授权给其他厂商如Shin Etsu是为了多样化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（而且大多数人甚至还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期的全部上涨空间，加上下周$NVDA GTC催化剂。 我个人认为从这里还有3倍空间，所以我做多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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用 Cramer 反向指标串起一串当日强势股
Jim Cramer：“今天就是没法赚钱的一天。” 当天： $AXTI：+15.08% $AAOI：+11.5% $HIMS：+6.05% $LITE：+7.06% $SNDK：+6.12% $IQE：+19.08% SK 海力士：+4.38% $MU：+4.65% $COHR：+4.86% 这和前一个帖子里周日提到的“150-200 美元原油”呼应上了。 Cramer 指标又一次显灵了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jim Cramer: “Just impossible Day to Make Money”. Today: $AXTI: +15.08% $AAOI: +11.5% $HIMS: +6.05% $LITE: +7.06% $SNDK: +6.12% $IQE: +19.08% SK Hynix: 4.38% $MU: +4.65% $COHR: +4.86% This is following the previous post about “$150-200” Oil on Sunday. The Cramer indicator strikes again.
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指出AXTI股价波动剧烈。
@platochi 是的，$AXTI 的波动性（volatility）太疯狂了 https://t.co/x1kccLqFSy
原推 ↗英文原文
@platochi Yeah $AXTI volatility is wild https://t.co/x1kccLqFSy
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
匿名者，你听了我关于 $AXTI 的论点吗？ 警告：整个 AI 行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值 7 亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值 317 亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球 60–70% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的 $NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7 集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN 超大规模计算集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR 使用磷化铟(InP)用于 800G/1.6T 光收发器中的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈激光器(DFB)及其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从 TPU 到 Maia 的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)、GPU 和超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模计算光学（TPU 集群等） - 光收发器（5G、数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（Robotaxi、无人机、军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia 未来的共封装光学(CPO)以及 Intel/Broadcom 硅光子学引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： - AXTI（估计 ~30–35%） - 住友（估计 ~30%） - JX 日本（估计 10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021 年的行业报告指出“住友电工 + AXT 共同拥有‘超过 75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模计算/AI 正在向光子学转变，但整个 AI 行业是脆弱的。 如果 $AXTI 或 $SMTOY 中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的 AI 建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家 7 亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着 AI 行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HBM)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hope you listened to my $AXTI thesis anon? https://t.co/d5eg0BIhlG
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回顾光子股涨幅，强调持有波动并关注基本面。
$AAOI 自 30 美元以来已上涨 4 倍。 如果你听了匿名者的建议，我做过研究（thesis）的每一个光子学（Photonics）名字，从 $AXTI 到 $LITE，都上涨了 2 倍、3 倍或 4 倍。 希望那些炒作“原油涨至 200 美元”或 $IREN “内部人抛售”的末日论者没有让你在 80 美元时恐慌性抛售你的头寸。 这就是为什么你要在波动中持有并关注底层基本面。 并非每家公司都能在一年内从 4.5 亿美元营收增长到 45 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is now up 4x since $30. Every photonics name from $AXTI to $LITE I’ve done a thesis on increased 2x, 3x, or 4x if you listened anon? Hope the Crude Oil to $200 or $IREN troll “insider sales” doomposters didn’t make you panic sell your positions at $80. This is why you hold through volatility and look at underlying fundamentals. Not every company can go from 450m revenue to $4.5B in just one years time.
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Rosenblatt 分析师认为 $AAOI 市值被低估，且可能是 $ORCL 客户。
据 Rosenblatt 分析师称，$ORCL 可能是 $AAOI 的超大规模客户(hyperscaler client)。 当我首次发布关于 $AAOI 的观点时，大家的怀疑程度就像我对 $AXTI 的论点帖子一样强烈。 但别只听我的一面之词。 我在财报后分享的确切观点，现在也得到了其他机构分析师的呼应： “考虑到其 2027 年的收入潜力为 40 亿美元，该公司低于 80 亿美元的市场资本化市值过低。” —— Rosenblatt。 鉴于收入增长，光子(photonics)类股票的重定价之路可能还很漫长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ORCL likely $AAOI hyperscaler client per Rosenblatt analyst. When I first posted about $AAOI everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI. But don’t take it from me. My exact same sentiment I shared after earnings is now echoed by other institutional analysts: “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B “ - Rosenblatt. Likely a long way to go for repricing photonic names given revenue ramp.
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光子学作为AI新范式，不受地缘政治及油价波动影响。
领先的光子学(Photonics)公司并不关心原油价格飙升。 $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% 光子学是人工智能(AI)的下一个范式，伊朗战争不会改变这一点。 https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
原推 ↗英文原文
Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking. $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn’t change that. https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
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博主强调独立思考，欣慰粉丝在复杂交易中建立信念。
听到这个很高兴！我不希望大家进行跟单交易或盲目跟随。主要目的只是分享我随行的思考，希望人们能从中有所收获。如果他们能自行建立信念，去参与像 $AXTI 这样高度复杂的交易，那就更好了。很高兴你在 $EWY 或 $IREN 的衍生品上也做到了这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s great to hear! I don’t want people to copy trade or just blindly follow. Main thing is just sharing my thoughts as I go and I hope people learn a few things along the way. And if they can build conviction themselves to enter a highly nuanced trade like $AXTI, that’s even better And I’m glad you did with some derivatives on $EWY or $IREN.
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博主庆祝粉丝破十万，感谢关注并重申坚持免费分享研究心得的初心。
哇……刚刚达到 10 万粉丝！ 很高兴这么多人觉得我对 $AAOI 到 $EWY 的观点有帮助。 回顾来看，我想这 largely 是因为我坚持了最初的做法： -> 信息综合 -> 寻找人们未曾关注的新角度 -> 从小型瓶颈到大型科技公司，发布可执行的交易思路 -> 如果结果正确就庆祝！ 我认为去年大部分案例： 从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 最终都看对了，实现了翻倍或三倍，因此近期人气高涨。 没多少人感兴趣于研究过程，但当他们两个月后看到成果时，我想他们开始更关注了？ 无论如何，我会继续做我在拥有 800 粉丝时做的事。那时只有我和一些 Reddit 上的朋友。 但 X 给我这个机会与他人分享想法，这太棒了。 达到 10 万粉丝对我来说是一种轻微的验证，表明我免费发布的想法至少值得阅读（即使你不跟随操作）。 所以，只想对你们所有人说声谢谢！
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… 100K followers just now! Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful. From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start: -> information synthesis -> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at -> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies. -> celebrating if they turn out correct! And I think majority of them from last year: From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity. Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention? Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit. But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others. Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them). So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
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对于有指引或瓶颈的公司，内部人减持不重要，执行和达成目标才是关键。
如果一家公司提供业绩指引或处于瓶颈环节，内部人减持可能是我关注的最不重要的因素。 $AAOI 给出了 2027 年下半年营收 3.78 亿美元、毛利率约 36-40% 的指引，而其市值为 70 亿美元。 只要他们能执行并达成指引，我不在乎谁在卖出股票。 两个月前我在 Reddit 首次发布 $AXTI（当时约 12 美元）时，也有同样的担忧，而它自那以来已翻了三倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
Insider selling is probably the least material thing I look at if a company gives projections or serves as a bottleneck. $AAOI gave projections of $378M/revenue off ~36-40% gross margins H2 2027 and they're a $7B MC. Don't care if someone sells their shares as long as they execute and hit projections. Same concern was said about $AXTI on Reddit 2 months ago when I first posted it around $12 and it's tripled since then.
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看好AXTI垄断潜力，COHR最安全，AAOI/IQE高弹性，TSEM短期滞涨。
$AXTI 是我的个人最爱，因为其衬底/原料被用于任何光子学瓶颈环节。我只需要有人加入他们的董事会，告诉他们自己是半垄断地位并提价。关于时间框架：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 可能在未来两年因需求激增而迎来高光时刻。由于共封装光学(CPO)的影响，可插拔光模块的指数级增长曲线可能在 2028 年略有放缓，因此对类似中际旭创/新易盛的玩家会更谨慎。$AAOI 自产激光器，所以如果有转型时间，我确信他们会通过认证。简而言之：最安全的是 $COHR，他们业务广泛多元化。最高上行空间可能是 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI，鉴于其起点较小。Soitec 和 $TSEM 有显著上行空间，两年内可能翻倍或翻三倍。但 2026 年可能是死钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck. I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike. For timeframes: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp. The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players. $AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot. TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified. Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point. Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.
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分析IQE、AAOI及AXTI等小众AI供应链标的的早期机会与执行风险。
可能尚未被定价的只有那些更小众的领域，例如在磷化铟(InP)衬底上的外延工艺，或者那些刚刚触及拐点的新型激光器/收发器玩家。 我曾提到 $IQE 处于极早期阶段（但风险更高），因为其同行 Landmark 的估值已达 35-40 亿美元。 这取决于重组情况。 $AAOI 也处于极早期，情况更微妙，因为他们提供端到端服务（激光器 -> 设计 -> 组装）。如果他们能在每一层执行到位，淘汰 $FN/中际旭创 类型的玩家并扩大利润率，可能实现 10 倍增长。 但这很大程度上取决于执行能力。 $AXTI 也许有机会，如果 Shkreli 加入董事会并教他们如何涨价的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point. I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B. This depends on restructuring. $AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x. This largely depends on execution though. $AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，激光与InP紧缺，CPO变革预计2028年。
光子学是下一个主要瓶颈。 $NVDA 提前发出了每一个瓶颈的信号：从 HBM（与三星/SK海力士合作）到 CoWoS，再到如今对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的投资： 激光晶圆厂、共封装光学(CPO) 和磷化铟(InP)。 针对每个瓶颈中最具非对称性的多头标的： 1. InP 衬底：$AXTI，住友，JX 2. InP 上游原料+加工：$AXTI 3. 激光器：$AAOI（自研），$AVGO，$COHR，$LITE 4. CPO：$TSEM，Soitec。 $AAOI 财报电话会确认了激光器瓶颈，三家超大规模云厂商希望买断其能生产的所有光收发器。 $AXTI 的积压订单确认了 InP 衬底瓶颈。（玩家图片来源：IndexBox） CPO 瓶颈被广泛预期将在 2027-2028 年末发生。 $AVGO 关于“CPO”的评论带来了短期波动。但这不同于正在发生的激光->收发器和 InP 瓶颈。 关于时间框架： $AAOI，$LITE，$COHR 和激光收发器瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计像内存一样在 2028 年前恶化）。 $AXTI，住友和 InP 衬底瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计只要 AI 在未来多年使用光子学，情况就会恶化）。 由 $NVDA 引领的向 CPO 的大型架构转变可能发生在 2028 年。 这些对于 AI 的下一个范式转变来说似乎是不可避免的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the next major bottleneck. $NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from: HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment: Laser Fab, CPO, and InP. For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck: 1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX 2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI 3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE 4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec. The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce. The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox) And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028. There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now. For timeframes: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028). $AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come). And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028. These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
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AXTI受铟价新高及光子需求驱动，订单饱满且扩产，未来盈利将体现涨价。
铟非标准件(Indium nonstandard)价格已创历史新高。 当人们审视 $AXTI 的财报时，常犯的一个错误是用短缺/光子学(Photonics)需求爆发前约1年前的合同来评判其业绩。 我预计随着新合同周期到来 -> 半年后的前瞻盈利将开始体现大量涨价影响。 但财报显示他们订单已排满且正在扩产（这是利好）。
原推 ↗英文原文
7n indium nonstandard is up to all time highs. When people look at $AXTI earnings, they often make the mistake of judging contracts from maybe 1Y ago before a lot of the shortages/photonics demand began. I'd expect when new contract cycles hit -> forward earnings a half a year from now will start showing in a lot of the price hikes. But earnings showed they were already fully backlogged and are expanding capacity (which is positive).
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解析光子学材料至云厂商的光模块上游供应链瓶颈。
是的，如果你向光模块的光学收发器更上游追溯，例如 $AXTI 是光子学领域最终的材料瓶颈。他们通常供应给外延片(epiwafer)公司如 $IQE，后者再供应给 $LITE -> $LITE Cloudlight -> $FN -> $GOOGL。沿途还有像 $TSEM 这样的公司，以及向 $IQE/Landmark 出售反应器的随机欧洲厂商。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah if you go more upstream for optical transceivers for example, $AXTI is the end of the end materials bottleneck for photonics. They usually they supply to epiwafer companies like $IQE that supply to $LITE -> $LITE cloudlite -> $FN -> $GOOGL. And companies like $TSEM along the way + random European reactor sellers to $IQE/Landmark.
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真正超额收益来自控制铲子供应商所需的高价材料瓶颈。
当市场说“当所有人都去挖金矿时，卖出铲子”时，他们错了。为什么？真正的超额收益来自：对铲子供应商进行瓶颈控制。从$AXTI和$LITE的光子学衬底/EML激光器，到$SNDK向SK海力士供应NAND/DRAM，这些都是瓶颈环节。它们最终比那些聚集在$NVDA等铲子供应商周围的投资者更赚钱。这句谚语应该是：“当所有人都去挖金矿时，通过铲子供应商需要的高价材料来获利”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets have got it wrong when they say: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Sell Shovels" You know why? The real alpha comes from: Bottlenecking the Shovel Sellers. Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE. to $SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA. The saying should go: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Profit off the Materials at jacked up prices that the Shovel Sellers need to Sell the Shovels".
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驳斥彭博社误报出口管制草案引发半导体供应链恐慌性抛售。
彭博社刚刚引发了半导体市场的崩盘。凭记忆，受影响的标的从 $EWY 和 $SNDK 到 $NVDA 和 $TSM 都有。起因是假新闻。这简直是路透社关键矿产误导性报道的2.0版本。肯定得有人为此负责？
原推 ↗英文原文
Bloomberg just caused a semiconductor market crash. From memory names in $EWY and $SNDK to $NVDA and $TSM. Off fake news. This is Reuters critical minerals misleading reporting v2. Certainly someone needs to be held accountable? https://t.co/YaBNpl8nFB
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机构对小众光子上游认知滞后，X平台热度具误导性。
对于 $AAOI 来说并不意外。许多机构可能直到被大型 X 账号提及，才听说过像 $AXTI 这样更小众的光子学上游玩家。FinX 社区对这些标的介入极早，但由于 X 平台本身存在泡沫效应，感觉似乎已经“拥挤”。但如果你问这里以外的人这些名字是什么，他们完全一无所知。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not surprising with $AAOI. A lot of institutions probably never heard of a lot of the more niche photonic upstream players like $AXTI until they get mentioned by larger X accounts The FinX community is extremely early to a lot of these names but it feels “crowded” because X is a bubble. But if you ask anyone outside of here what some of these names are, they’ll have 0 clue.
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$AAOI逆势上涨，因垂直整合供应链且估值远低于同行，潜力巨大。
$AAOI 面临异常强劲的买盘压力。 今天所有主要的光子学(Photonics)概念股都在下跌： $LITE 下跌 -4.74% $COHR 下跌 -8% $AXTI 下跌 -2.5% $IQE 下跌 -20% $FN 下跌 -3.98% 但 $AAOI 是光子学板块中唯一飘红的股票。 当你审视 $AAOI 的“激光器->设计->组装”供应链时，其估值仅为 75 亿美元，存在巨大且纯粹的上涨空间。 相比之下，其亚洲或西方竞争对手的估值均超过 500 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI has exceptionally strong buying pressure. All major photonics names are down today: $LITE down -4.74% $COHR down -8% $AXTI down -2.5% $IQE down -20%. $FN down -3.98. But $AAOI is the photonics name green. There’s a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B. And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+
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强调在高波动股票交易前需建立个人确信度。
@awarness1780 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都具有极高的贝塔值(高波动性)，因此在入场前，建立自己对这笔交易的确信度非常重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
@awarness1780 $AAOI and $AXTI are both extremely high beta which is why it’s important to build conviction in the trade yourself before entering.
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澄清AI芯片出口管制仅为提案，驳斥误报引发的供应链恐慌。
“美国正考虑要求全球 $NVDA、$AMD AI 芯片销售需获许可” 市场正对特朗普政府拟对英伟达实施类似 $AXTI 出口管制待遇的消息做出剧烈反应。 关键词：提案 | 草案。 该提案原样通过的可能性几乎为零。 随着消息报道，科技公司很可能正在游说政府。 文章中提到： 特朗普政府将提出法规，要求全球 AI 芯片出货需经美国批准。 该法案的结果将毫无理由地造成 AI 贸易瓶颈，并损害特朗普最看重的指标：美国股市。 特朗普曾以废除拜登时代的 AI 扩散规则而闻名： “包括英伟达、微软和甲骨文在内的主要美国科技公司曾游说反对该规则，认为其可能导致数十亿美元收入损失，并促使合作伙伴转向中国技术。” 因此，新政策的实施将与其议程背道而驰。 不幸的是，其他文章和新闻将其改写为迫在眉睫的出口管制，而非提案。 耸人听闻/虚假的标题报道引发了从 $TSM、$NVDA 到 $MU 的整个供应链今日的大幅抛售。 然而，人们确实有权对潜在影响感到担忧。
原推 ↗英文原文
“US Mulls Requiring Permits for Global $NVDA, $AMD AI Chip Sales” Markets are reacting violently to news of the Trump administration was thinking about giving Nvidia the $AXTI export control treatment. Keyword: Proposal | Draft. There is an almost zero chance it passes as is. Tech companies are likely lobbying the administration as this gets reported. In the article: The Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide. The result of this bill would bottleneck the AI trade for no reason and harm Trump’s favorite metric: the US stock market. Trump was known for rescinding the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule: “Major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle, lobbied against the rule, arguing it could cost them billions in revenue and push partners towards Chinese technology.” So a new policy getting enacted, would be counterintuitive to his agenda. Unfortunately other articles + news on elsewhere reworded this as an imminent export control, rather than a proposal. Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today. However, people do have a right to be worried about the implications.
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回应关于AXTI早期投资论点的质疑
@adam_gamsy 当我最初撰写 $AXTI 投资论点（当时股价为 $12）时，我也收到了同样的问题 https://t.co/fO23QJghaw
原推 ↗英文原文
@adam_gamsy This was the same question I got on my original $AXTI thesis when it was $12 https://t.co/fO23QJghaw
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分析AAOI光子学护城河与SOTP估值，认为其上行空间值得执行风险。
感觉 $AAOI（市值75亿美元）是目前上行空间最大的 AI 交易之一？ 在光子学领域，许多机构错过了上游瓶颈环节 $AXTI，因此散户可以在其被定价前发现这些机会。 对于 $AAOI，有一条清晰的通往 470 亿美元+ 估值的路径： 经济护城河： > 激光晶圆厂、设计及组装 > 德克萨斯州的激光产能翻三倍 > 美国制造（部分组装在台湾，但将于 2027 年回流美国） 预测： > 2027 年第二季度每月营收 3.78 亿美元 > 指引毛利率 35-38% -> 第三季度毛利率 40% 需求： > 超大规模云服务商买断了 $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR 能生产的所有产能 如果他们实现 2027 年下半年的营收目标： 激光组件权重：20% × 18.9 倍（$LITE 估值倍数）= 3.78 倍 组装组件权重：80% × 8.5 倍（中际旭创/新易盛估值倍数）= 6.80 倍 $AAOI 的混合分部加总(SOTP) 估值倍数 = 10.58 倍远期销售额 如果他们实现预测，你仍然会得到 476 亿美元的市值。 这还不包括像 $MU 对比 SK 海力士那样赋予公司的“美国制造”溢价。 以及他们通过内部优化光模块(transceiver)供应链所获得的任何利润率扩张。 鉴于目前市值仅为 75 亿美元，我认为市场不会等到 2027 年第二季度才开始将其定价。 $AAOI 的上行空间值得承担执行风险吗？ 对我来说：是的，毫无疑问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like $AAOI ($7.5B MC) is one of the highest upside AI trades right now? With photonics lot of institutions miss upstream bottlenecks $AXTI, so retail can spot them before they get priced in. With AAOI, there’s a clear path to a $47B+ valuation from: Economic moat: > laser fab, the design, and the assembly > tripling laser capacity in Texas > made in America (some assembly in Taiwan but reshoring that to US in 2027) Projections: > $378m revenue per month in q2 2027 > guided 35-38% gross margins -> q3 40% gross margins Demand: > Hyperscalers buying out any capacity $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR can make If they hit their 2027 H2 revenue target: Laser Component Weight: 20% × 18.9x ( $LITE est. multiple) = 3.78x · Assembly Component Weight: 80% × 8.5x (Innolight/Eoptolink Multiple) = 6.80x · $AAOI’s Blended SOTP Multiple = 10.58x Forward Sales You still get a $47.6B Market Cap if they deliver projections. This is not including any potential Made in America premiums that get assigned to companies like $MU vs. SK Hynix. And any margin expansion they get from optimizing the transceiver supply chain in-house. Given the marketcap is a small $7.5B now, I don’t think markets will wait for q2 2027 to start pricing it in. Is the $AAOI upside worth the execution risk? To me: Yes, Unequivocally.
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AAOI短期因市值小占优，COHR等长期更具防御性。
@SkiIIls 我认为未来一年 $AAOI 的表现将更优，仅因其市值较小且在其他光学公司实现技术跨越。$COHR、$AXTI、$LITE 在长期来看更具防御性。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SkiIIls No over the next year I think $AAOI will outperform just due to its small MC size + leapfrogging the other optical companies. $COHR, $AXTI, $LITE are much more defensible long term.
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看好光子学趋势，建议同时买入AAOI和AXTI。
光子学是未来几年人工智能领域的新范式转变。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都为所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）供货，并处于这一浪潮的前沿（尽管市值非常小）。 我认为这两家公司的股价尚未充分反映其价值。既然可以两只都持有来拉动我的雪橇，何必在两只“哈士奇”之间做选择呢？
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the new paradigm shift for AI over the next few years. Both $AAOI and $AXTI supply to all the hyperscalers and are the forefront of it (while being really small in marketcap). Don't think either of them are priced in yet. Why should I choose between individual Huskeys when I can have both carrying my sled?
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指出AXTI内部人抛售预警早于两个月前，股价已涨3-4倍。
@FFrxev 顺便提一下，关于内部人士抛售的完全相同的情况，在两个月前 $AXTI 股价为 12 美元时就发布过了。自那以来，股价已接近 3-4 倍。 https://t.co/MgIFZag2iF
原推 ↗英文原文
@FFrxev This exact thing regarding insider selling was posted 2 months ago when $AXTI was $12 by the way. It's close to 3-4x since then. https://t.co/MgIFZag2iF
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博主反驳网友，指出相关公司市值巨大，个人无法使其股价翻倍。
@fullthr0tll3 我的意思是 $LITE 是一家市值 550 亿美元的公司？Macronix/Nittobo 是市值 60 多亿美元的公司。 $AAOI 是一家市值 70 亿美元的公司，股价从我发帖时的约 28 美元涨到了 100 美元。$AXTI 现在是一家市值约 24 亿美元的公司，从我发帖时的约 5 亿美元涨上来的。 我不认为 X 上的一个随机用户能对这些公司产生足够大的影响，让它们全部翻倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@fullthr0tll3 I mean $LITE is a $55B company? Macronix/Nittobo are $6B+ company. $AAOI is a $7B company/$100-share from ~$28 when I posted. $AXTI is now a ~$2.4B company from ~$500m when I posted. I don’t think a random person on X can affect these companies enough to make them all double.
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博主感叹近期多只AI光模块股票短期暴涨100%+的现象。
嗯……这大概是继 $AXTI 以来最快的一次 100%+ 反弹吧？ 感觉我周围的一切，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE，都在短时间内不断上涨 100%+。 有人也遭受这种“痛苦”吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
Well… this was probably the fastest 100%+ rally since $AXTI? Feels like everything around me keeps going up 100%+ in short periods of time from $AAOI to $LITE. Anyone suffering from this problem? https://t.co/ao8g3cey0t
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认为只要光子学存在，AXTI就是赢家。
@kingcoinmatt 只要光子学(Photonics)还存在，$AXTI 就永远是赢家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $AXTI is always the winner as long as photonics is a thing.
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GOOGL弃用CPO利好可插拔光模块及上游供应链
$GOOGL 拒绝采用共封装光学(CPO) 对整个可插拔光模块生态系统而言是巨大的结构性利好。 大多数人忽略了今日 Needham 分析师关于 $LITE 上调目标价至 $850 的研报中的这一点： 主要受益者：$AAOI、$FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、光收发器公司。 次要受益者（外延晶圆）：$IQE、Landmark 第三级受益者（衬底）：$AXTI、住友( Sumitomo) 降级（CPO）：Soitec 引用：“LITE 看到了一个意外的额外利好，其主要的收发器模块客户（Google）目前在其 TPU 架构中暂无采用 CPO 的计划。”
原推 ↗英文原文
$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem. Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today: Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies. Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo Downgrade (CPO): Soitec Quote: "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."
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看好某CPO垄断股，虽短期波动大但具西方供应链优势。
@Jap97Taki 是的.. 我喜欢我的股票每天上下波动 20% 带来的肾上腺素飙升感。 这只股票很可能将经历一段超级无聊的等待期，直到共封装光学(CPO) 临近时进行重估。 但它们是真正的单一垄断者（而非像 $AXTI / $SUM 那样的双寡头）+ 西方供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jap97Taki Yeah.. I like the adrenaline rush of my stocks going up and down 20% a day. This one is likely going to be a super boring wait for re-rating as CPO approaches. But they're a genuine singular monopoly (rather than duopoly like AXT/Sumitomo) + western supply chain too.
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看好AXTI，认为其在光子学领域仍是关键瓶颈。
@Long311203 是的，我个人更喜欢 $AXTI，因为它们是当前的瓶颈，并且对于任何与光子学(Photonics)相关的领域来说，它们仍将是一个瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Long311203 Yes I personally like $AXTI miles better since they're a current bottleneck and will still be one for anything photonics related.
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看好Soitec在CPO基板垄断地位，认为其具备2-3倍潜力。
我觉得如果人们有耐心等一年，Soitec ($SLOIF) 相当于免费赠送 2-3 倍的涨幅？ 他们在共封装光学(CPO) 基板领域拥有真正的垄断地位。 很多人关注 Shin-Etsu，但他们只是获得了 Soitec 的技术授权。 它不像 $AXTI 那样是当前面临的材料瓶颈，而是需求瓶颈（目前由于 CPO 尚未规模化，他们还没有需求）。 但我们都清楚，需求将在 2027 年底到 2028 年到来。 主要问题在于机会成本，但这只是市场何时想要提前布局的问题。在我看来，这仍然优于指数回报？
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year? They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates. Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff. It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up). But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028. Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?
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AXTI垄断光子学供应链，受益于AI建设，有望从25亿涨至200亿市值。
$AXTI 掌控着光子学（Photonics）AI 基础设施建设所需的供应链。其市值仅为 25 亿美元。 如果明年它的交易价格达到 200 亿美元或更高，我也不会感到惊讶。 $NVDA 今天展示了光子学在未来几年中的关键作用。如果 $AXTI 愿意，它可以在第二天对新合同涨价 500%，而来自 $LITE 或 $COHR 等公司都会为了锁定配额而欣然支付。 他们在日本的主要竞争对手受到了中国的出口管制，未来可能会面临产能紧张的局面。 我很乐意持有一个服务于万亿美元 AI 建设、市值 25 亿美元的垄断企业。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI controls the supply chain needed for the AI buildout for photonics. At a $2.5B MC. I would not be surprised if it were trading at $20B or more next year. $NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years. If AXT wanted to AXT could price hike 500% the next day for new contracts and everyone from $LITE or $COHR would happily pay it to secure allocation. Their main competitor over in Japan got export controls by China and will likely be capacity strained in the future. I would happy sleep on a $2.5b monopoly for the trillion dollar AI buildout
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英伟达注资光子学公司后AXTI大涨，凸显其作为关键材料供应商的垄断地位。
天哪，这个论点或许是今年 X 上最传奇的一个。 在英伟达(Nvidia)今天向光子学玩家 $LITE 和 $COHR 注入 40 亿美元后，$AXTI 现在涨到了 46.7 美元。 猜猜谁控制着所有材料？ 匿名者，你听进去了吗？https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy ****, this thesis was perhaps the most legendary one on X this year. $AXTI is now at $46.7 after Nvidia funneled $4B into photonics players $LITE and $COHR today. Guess who controls all the materials? Did you listen anon? https://t.co/7Sm08hOQPA
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根据催化剂远近，权衡长期与短期资本利得税策略。
如果催化剂（如光子学 Photonics）尚需时日，我倾向于追求长期资本利得税优惠。例如，我目前持有一笔 $AXTI 头寸，未实现收益约为 450%。但如果出现重大事件（如格陵兰和平协议）可能损害你的国防多头头寸（如持有 $ONDS），那么将约 80% 的收益作为短期资本利得税结算，可能比经历“过山车”回到盈亏平衡点再免税更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
I try and aim for long term capital gains tax if the catalyst is far enough (eg. Photonics). For example I’m sitting on unrealized ~450% return one of my $AXTI positions. But if there’s a major event like Greenland peace deal that would hurt your defense longs like $ONDS if you had it. Then just taking short term capital gains on like a 80% return is probably better than round tripping to breakeven then paying no tax on that
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看好光子、存储、电力及国防板块，分享具体标的及轮动策略。
光子学、存储、电力和国防可能是目前势头最强的前3大板块。 其他如先进封装或散热等板块，恕我直言，你无法获得像前四大板块那样严重的瓶颈效应或回报。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 是我最看好的两个光子学标的。 三星和 SK 海力士是存储领域的两大首选。 关于电力，我之前已经说过 $XLU，受益于降息+电网现代化+超大规模云厂商推理需求。 然后是国防，可能是 $LASR 等，因为伊朗冲突是最大的催化剂之一。（并持仓直到和平时期到来） 我通常轮动操作约30只股票，所以像 $RDDT 这样的股票我在做波段交易，而像 $RPI 这样我之前提过的股票，我只是作为低仓位的备用持仓，以防我的逻辑被证实正确。 其中很大一部分是在顺势而为。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now. There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo. $AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays. Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays. Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference. Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime) I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right. Large part of it is riding the momentum.
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博主自嘲父母投资眼光更好，$PL涨幅远超其持有的$AXTI。
我爸妈其实是比我更好的投资者，哈哈。也许部分原因是基因？ 我爸一直告诉我他当时在$1.7时有多喜欢$PL。我并不太相信地理空间智能(geospatial intelligence)。但这只股票最终上涨了约16倍。 这会跑赢我的$AXTI收益。
原推 ↗英文原文
My parents are actually better investors than I am lol. Maybe part of it is genetics? My dad kept telling me how much he liked $PL back at $1.7. I didn’t really believe in geospatial intelligence. But the stock ended up going up like 16 times. Would have beaten my $AXTI returns.
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博主偏好投资美国本土光模块替代股以获取溢价。
谢谢！我喜欢与中国社区互动。关于中际旭创(Innolight)和新易盛(Eoptolink)，我认为它们是光子学领域的一流多头标的，尤其是随着光模块(transceiver)的繁荣。但如果它们不像$AXTI那样具有垄断地位，我个人更倾向于投资西方供应链的替代方案，如$AAOI。市场通常会给“美国制造”的股票赋予溢价，即使它们的收入/盈利能力不如前者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! I love interacting with the Chinese community. As for Innolight and Eoptolink i think they’re top tier longs for photonics segment. Especially with the transceiver boom now. But if they’re not monopolies like $AXTI, I personally just prefer to invest in Western supply chain alternatives like $AAOI instead. The market usually assigns a premium to “Made in America” stocks, even if they don’t have as much revenue/profitability.
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通过追踪AI资本支出流向及电网需求来构建投资组合。
我很受宠若惊 lol。但即使指数相对持平，我对表现也很满意！ 很大一部分原因在于追踪资金流向。 例如：$GOOGL $1800亿资本支出 -> TPU项目 -> TPU物料清单(BOM) -> 8-12% $LITE -> 来自 $AXTI 的上游材料或来自 $IQE 的外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 或者仅仅是 DRAM/NAND 价格上涨 -> 简单地做多存储。 最近由于 Elon 和 OpenAI 推动电网扩张和更多容量，焦点转向电力/电网，因此做多 $XLU。 我想这只是运气好赶上了动量？
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index! A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes. Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE. Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory. Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU. I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?
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逢高加仓AXTI等AI瓶颈股，调仓先进封装至极端瓶颈环节。
两者皆是。自$AXTI是未来多年整个AI行业的瓶颈以来，我一直在逢高加仓，即便其市值仅24亿美元。 $AAOI可能还有很长的路要走，其2026年营收及2027年中期的增长已实现了对$LITE的跨越式超越，而估值仅为后者的十分之一。 我确实开仓了像$LITE供应商$IQE这样的新多头头寸。随后又新增了如定向能武器领域的$LASR等仓位。 我的持仓记忆确实很长，因为SK海力士明年的营业利润可能会超过其整个市值…… 然后我确实从一些先进封装概念股中调仓，转向了AI资本支出中极端的现有瓶颈环节。
原推 ↗英文原文
Both. Cost averaging up on $AXTI since it’s the bottleneck of the entire AI industry for many years to come, even at a small $2.4B MC. $AAOI probably has a long way to go, it leapfrogged $LITE 2026 revenue + growth midyear 2027 at 1/10th the valuation. I did enter new longs like $IQE as a $LITE supplier. And then been adding new positions like $LASR for energy directed weapons. Definitely long memory since SK Hynix might print more operating income than their entire marketcap by next year… Then I did rotate out of a few like some advanced packing names into extreme existing bottlenecks from ai capex
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博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
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预测AXTI市值一两年内或达200亿美元
@DeFi_AdamZ 如果 $AXTI 在一两年内交易到 200 亿美元，我不会感到惊讶。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeFi_AdamZ would not be surprised if $AXTI traded at $20B in a year or two
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分享AXTI暴涨4倍收益，并乐享挖掘AI行业瓶颈。
@Veri_ta5321 随时欢迎！自从我发帖时的日内低点以来，$AXTI 已上涨近4倍！短短两个半月，这趟旅程真是疯狂。 我很享受像淘金一样挖掘整个AI行业的小型瓶颈环节。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 Anytime! $AXTI has increased close to 4x since intraday low when I posted! In just two and a half months, it’s been a crazy ride. Having a fun time gold mining for small bottlenecks of the entire AI industry.
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NVDA注资Lumentum，上游AXTI/IQE或成瓶颈。
在$NVDA达成$20亿交易后，所有人都在$540亿市值下抢购$LITE。等他们发现谁是Lumentum的上游瓶颈及供应商时再买吧。像$AXTI和可能的$IQE这样的公司可能还有很长的路要走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal. Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are. Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M
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博主晒出AXTI持仓455%收益，并期待IQE表现。
@ryansfinance 谢谢！你肯定错过了 $AXTI，我的持仓收益已达 455%。 是的，希望 $IQE 接下来也能有积极表现！https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance Thanks! You missed out on $AXTI for sure, my positions are up like 455%. Yep hope to see something positive with $IQE next! https://t.co/LAST4fVcmh
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
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光子学供应链相关个股近期走势强劲，全线上涨。
@anhecdote 随时欢迎！是的，我之前提到的整个光子学(Photonics)供应链，包括 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$IQE 和 $AAOI，走势都是一条直线向上的绿色阳线。
原推 ↗英文原文
@anhecdote Anytime! Yeah the entire photonics supply chain that I've mentioned from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $IQE, and $AAOI has been a straight green line up.
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英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
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英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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分享AXTI等个股早期布局逻辑及CPO前瞻。
$AXTI 和 $AAOI 可能还非常早期。$LITE 的定价已略有反映。$COHR 还有很长的路要走。 $IQE 处于非常早期的阶段，但由于重组带来的固有风险，我不建议其他人参与。我只是分享我建仓的逻辑，并沿途庆祝进展。 至于 2028 年的共封装光学(CPO)，明年有一套不同的标的供提前布局。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go. $IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way. Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.
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光子学板块个股无视宏观风险持续大涨
看来 $IQE 也不关心伊朗战争？ 我核心光子学(Photonics)板块的选股 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR 和 $AAOI 最近每天都呈垂直上涨态势，完全无视任何宏观因素。https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
原推 ↗英文原文
Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either? My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
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Soitec是CPO关键瓶颈，预计2028年随CPO拐点迎来估值重估。
Soitec ($SLOIF) 是 $AXTI 在硅光子学领域的垄断性镜像标的。 基本上，它与共封装光学(CPO) 直接绑定，其拐点预计在 2027 年底至 2028 年。 对于 800G/1.6T 和 CPO 而言，没有 $AXTI 和 Soitec 很难实现： AXT 提供磷化铟(InP) Soitec 提供光子学绝缘体上硅(Photonics-SOI) 衬底。具有功能性垄断地位。 （Shin Etsu 在其授权下运营）->（英特尔、格芯、Tower） 但预计当 CPO 在 2028 年初触及拐点时，它们的估值将大幅重估。 然而，与 $IQE 类似，大量传统业务拖累影响着其股价。 对于 $AXTI，供应挤压正在发生。 对于 Soitec，可能早了 6 个月或一年，但不知道市场何时开始抢跑。 但这只是将其作为一个未来的瓶颈环节提出。
原推 ↗英文原文
Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is the monopoly silicon photonics mirror to $AXTI. Basically it’s directly tethered to CPO and its inflection point late 2027-2028 For 800g/1.6T and CPO, hard to really do it without $AXTI and Soitec: AXT for InP Soitec for photonics-soi substrates. Functional monopoly (Shin Etsy operates under their license) -> (Intel, Global Foundaties, Tower) But expect them to get rerated extremely hard early 2028 when CPO hits the inflection point. However similar to $IQE, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting their stock price. For $AXTI the supply squeeze is happening now. For Soitec might be 6 months or a year too early but don’t know when markets start frontrunning it. But just putting it out there as a future bottleneck.
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AAOI财报揭示上游设备与材料瓶颈，IQE等上游厂商受益显著。
来自 $AAOI 财报的二阶效应： -> 对 MBE/MOCVD 反应堆的需求极度旺盛。 它们用于制造外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 这为“制造”环节释放了两个信号： - $IQE 坐拥一座绝对的“金矿” - 资本开支周期将惠及类似 $VECO ($18.5亿) 和 Aixtron ($AIXXF $37亿) 这样的设备商。 引用：3-4 家超大规模云服务商，可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT，对光收发器(transceivers)的需求已触顶。 -> 中际旭创(Innolight)、易普拓(Eptolink)、$COHR 等厂商可能也会经历一轮资本开支周期以满足需求。 这主要利好两家外延晶圆代工代工厂： -> $IQE ($1.75亿) ~100+ 台反应堆 -> 晶品半导体(Landmark) (~$36.8亿) ~27-30 台反应堆。 所以这大概就是为什么 $LITE 大量使用 $IQE，而 Landmark 营收屡创新高。$AAOI 则一直在建设其德州工厂的产能。 总结： 1. Aixtron 和 $VECO 受益于今年类似迷你版 $ASML 的资本开支周期。当 Aixtron 在2月指引中表示预计2026年“整体市场环境持续疲软”时，也许他们在低调隐藏实力(sandbagging)或订单尚未下达。话虽如此，我认为最佳敞口可能并非设备卖家。 2. $IQE 坐拥满足 $LITE 及其他超大规模云服务商对 InP 外延晶圆需求的产能金矿。他们只需成功重组，估值就能更像其台湾同行($36.5亿市值)。 3. $AAOI 的财报显示收发器制造商及其组装所需的组件/材料需求惊人，市场肯定尚未定价。 4. $AXTI 一如既往地成为所有环节的瓶颈，正如我去年所提到的。 名字越响亮(如 $LITE、$COHR)，交易可能越拥挤/已充分定价。 但当你向上游追溯时，还有大量未被市场定价的隐藏宝石，它们将从巨大的光子学扩张中受益。 这是投资者的新淘金热，但本质是瓶颈狩猎。
原推 ↗英文原文
Second order effects from $AAOI earnings: -> Extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors. They're needed for epiwafers. This signals two things for "manufacturing": - $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine - capex cycle to ( $VECO $1.85B, Aixtron $AIXXF $3.7B) type players. Quote: 3-4 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT. demand maxed out for transceivers. -> Innolight, Eptolink, $COHR, and others will probably go through a capex cycle to meet demand too. This largely benefits both outsourced foundries for epiwafers: -> $IQE ($175M) ~100+ reactors -> Landmark (~$3.68B) ~27-30 reactors. So that's probably the reason why $LITE has been heavily using $IQE, and Landmark has been hitting record revenues. $AAOI's has been building capacity from their texas fab. TLDR: 1. Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year. When Aixtron said 2026 "continued softness in overall market environment expected" from feb guidance, maybe they're sandbagging or orders havent come in yet. That being said, best exposure imo is probably not the machine sellers. 2. $IQE is sitting on a gold mine of capacity to meet demand across $LITE and others hyperscalers for inp epiwafers. They just need to restructure succesfully, to be rerated more like their $3.65B friend in Taiwan. 3. $AAOI earnings is just insane demand for both transceiver makers and the components/materials required to assemble them, definitely not priced in yet. 4. $AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything as I mentioned last year. The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in. But when you go more upstream, there's a ton of hidden gems markets haven't priced in yet that benefit from the massive photonics ramp. It's the new gold rush for investors, but bottleneck hunting.
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AAOI财报预示光子学新范式，资金或轮动至上游设备及材料供应商。
$AAOI 预计到 2027 年光收发器需求激增 10 倍，基于 $55 亿的市场规模 (MC)，实现 $43 亿的年经常性收入 (ARR)…… 这规模巨大。 $LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经拥挤，但。 我们可能会看到资金向上游轮动，例如： $ASML 类型的供应商： - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA)：在输入型金属有机化学气相沉积 (MOCVD) 领域占据约 75% 份额 - $VECO - MOCVD 和分子束外延 (MBE) 系统，可能是第二选择。 - Oxford Instruments：$AAOI 和 $COHR 的等离子刻蚀和沉积系统供应商 独立外延晶圆代工厂 (光子学领域的代工厂)： - $IQE：最大的外包化合物半导体外延晶圆制造商。基本上是光子学世界的 $TSM，但有很多传统业务的拖累。 - LandMark Optoelectronics：最直接、纯粹的光收发器单元增长标的 - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462)：使用 MBE 而非 MOCVD 制造高性能磷化铟 (InP) 外延晶圆 原材料衬底供应商 (基础材料)： - $AXTI/ Sumitomo：大家现在都知道了 收发器产能扩张的预测令人震惊，而这仅仅是 2027 年的情况。 到 2028 年可能会呈指数级增长。 $AAOI 创纪录的财报标志着光子学新范式的开始，获得相关敞口是一个很好的主意。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI's 10x projected rev surge in optical transceiver demand by 2027 for $4.3B ARR off a $5.5B MC... Is enormous. $LITE and $COHR might be crowded, but. We'll likely see rotation upstream like: $ASML-type suppliers: - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD - $VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second. - Oxford Instruments: Supplier to $AAOI and $COHR for plasma etch and deposition systems Merchant Epiwafer Fabs (Foundaries for photonics): - $IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer. Basically $TSM of photonics world but lot of legacy drag. - LandMark Optoelectronics: Most direct, pure-play for optical transceiver unit growth - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462): MBE rather than MOCVD to create high-performance InP epiwafers Raw Substrate Suppliers (base materials): - $AXTI/ Sumitomo : everyone knows by now Transceiver ramp projections is staggering, and this is only 2027. It's likely exponentially increasing into 2028. $AAOI's record-breaking earnings signals the start of a new paradigm for photonics, it's a great idea to get exposure.
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澄清讨论标的为AAOI，并提及此前成功预判AXTI涨幅。
@FractalVeritas 这里讨论的是 $AAOI，不是 $AXTI。不过我确实在 $AXTI 过去两个月上涨3倍之前就指出过它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FractalVeritas Talking about $AAOI in this, not $AXTI. But I did point out $AXTI before it went up 3x in the last two months.
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$AAOI若达预期市值或达250-300亿，核心持仓但存执行风险。
财报后，如果$AAOI 达成预期，明年市值有望从$50亿轻松跃升至$250亿-$300亿。它是少数“美国制造”（德克萨斯州Sugarland）的公司，对比竞争对手：$LITE（全球）、$COHR（全球）、$FN（泰国）、$AVGO（全球）、中际旭创（中国）和易飞扬（中国）。因此它可能像$INTC对比$TSM、$MU对比SK海力士那样获得“美国溢价”。但看营收：FY营收4.56亿美元，2027年ARR预计45.36亿美元（~900%+增长）。加上30%-40%的低端利润率预期及超大规模云厂商认证，这太疯狂了。虽有$2.5亿ATM增发，但相比预期只是九牛一毛。这部分极有趣：管理层称800G、1.6T模块的需求和产能到2027年中可能激增近10倍。这对$IQE、Landmark等外延晶圆(epiwafer)公司及更上游的$AXTI也是巨大顺风。$AAOI是2026-2027年的核心持仓，但始终存在交付执行的風險。$250-300亿市值预期听起来超现实，但如果达成$43.5亿ARR（900%+增长），光电子规模化在2028-2029年可能继续扩大，财报确实惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections. And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of - $LITE (global) - $COHR (global) - $FN (Thai) - $AVGO (global) - Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China). So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix. But from revenue: FY Revenue: $456 million 2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth). Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications. This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection. This part is extremely interesting: -> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027. This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI. $AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver. $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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博主庆祝两个月前的光子学研究验证，相关个股获三位数回报。
我只是在庆祝我两个月前做的一些深度研究(DD)！ 看到 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $LITE 的股价都实现了三位数的回报，这种验证我最初关于光子学(photonics)论点的过程非常有趣。 显然不是在告诉其他人要建仓，只是分享一些更新。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m just celebrating some of the DD I did two months ago! Seeing it play out with stock prices from $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE all hitting triple digit returns is very fun to see (and helps validate my original thesis on photonics). Obviously not telling others to take positions, just sharing some updates.
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定义光子学“四大天王”并指出IQE适合高风险组合，看好板块整体表现。
$AAOI 是另一家在最近两个月股价翻倍的 Photonics（光子学）公司！ 感觉从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI 的每一家光子学公司最近都在翻倍或翻三倍？ 我将这些光子学敞口标的称为“四大天王”： 1. $LITE（TPU 的高 BOM（物料清单）占比） 2. $AXTI（万物材料） 3. $COHR（供应链的重要组成部分） 4. $AAOI（美国制造） 其他如 $IQE，我最近也稍微加了一些仓位，主要用于风险偏好较高的组合（它是 $LITE 和其他公司的 Epiwafer（外延晶圆）代工厂），但其财务表现并不出色。 话虽如此，很高兴两个月后，这些名字中的许多都开始起飞了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is another photonics name that has just doubled in the last two months! Feels like every photonics company from $AXTI and $AAOI has been doubling or tripling recently? I’ve dubbed this the “Elite Four” for photonics exposure: 1. $LITE (High BOM of the TPU) 2. $AXTI (Materials for Eveything) 3. $COHR (huge part of supply chain) 4. $AAOI (made in America) Others like $IQE I’ve personally added recently slightly more for risk-on portfolios (epiwafer foundry for $LITE and others), but don’t have a great financial profile. That being said glad 2 months later, a lot of these names are taking off
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博主回应Reddit粉丝，提及因负面评论暂停发帖。
@RancicYaro4064 很高兴很多来自 $RDDT 的人在这里找到了我！在那里发布 $TE 和 $ETH 的迷因帖很有趣。之前关于 $AXTI 的帖子引发了太多负面评论，尽管该股最终翻了三倍，所以我之后就没怎么发帖了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@RancicYaro4064 I’m glad a lot of people from $RDDT found me here! It’s been fun posting $TE and $ETH meme ta posts on there. Just got too much negativity from my $AXTI post which ended up tripling so haven’t really posted since lol
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
原推 ↗英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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强调股价与基本面脱节，通过运营指标寻找错杀机会。
$CRCL... 三周内已反弹53%。 $54 是最佳的买入时机，而不是财报后涨幅超50%的时候。 有时很难逆着市场情绪操作。 但例如： $CRCL - 尽管股价暴跌，USDC 流通供应量仍是我关注的顶级指标之一。 $AXTI - 7N InP 在 SMM 上非标准化。 生存法则：股价与运营指标之间的脱节。 有时，股价可能反映一种情况，但财报和现实却是另一种。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRCL... is now back up 53% in 3 weeks. $54 was the best chance to buy, not 50%+ later after earnings. Really hard to go against the sentiment sometimes. But for example, on: $CRCL - USDC circulating supply one of the top indicators I looked at despite the stock price tanking. $AXTI - 7N InP nonstandard on SMM. Alive lives within: the disconnect between stock prices and operational indicators. Sometimes, stock prices might reflect one thing, but the earnings and reality are another.
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IQE 重组后有望对标 Landmark 实现大幅重估，是超大规模云厂商光子学供应链的二元高赔率标的。
如果要在 $AXTI 之后只选一只 10 倍股，那可能是 $IQE。 我的思考过程简版： - 最接近的对比是台湾的 LandMark Optoelectronics（用于外延片 epiwafers）。其估值约为 38 亿美元。 - $LITE <- $IQE 是已知关系，且 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 和超大规模云厂商 ASIC 的已知供应商。 - IQE 是全球最大的外延片晶圆代工企业，估值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 - 为什么 Landmark 估值 38 亿而 IQE 仅 1.5 亿？$IQE 有 2350 万英镑净债务和 1800 万英镑可转换票据。以及传统智能手机射频业务的拖累。 - Landmark 是磷化铟 (InP) 外延片的纯概念股，其估值展示了 IQE 的潜力。 - 所以当你看净债务 + 可转换票据……4100 万英镑基本上就是零钱？尤其对于超大规模云厂商供应链而言。 - Landmark 有 27 到 30 台 MOCVD 反应器。IQE 运营超过 100 台。 - $IQE 需要做的就是重组（他们正在做），出售拖累业务将消除债务。并专注于光子学供应链，其产能远超台湾同行，这将证明重新估值的合理性。 基本上，如果你看一个规模更小（但更纯粹的 $IQE 版本 Landmark），其估值接近 IQE 当前业务的 25 倍。 downside 是你会被稀释到虚无，但 4100 万英镑对超大规模云厂商来说感觉没什么？ 所以这是一个基于 $IQE 在超大规模云厂商光子学供应链中的重要性，因重新估值而产生的二元非对称性“登月”选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE. My thought process TLDR: - Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B. - $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs. - IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M. - Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF. - Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at. - So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain. - Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100. - All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating. Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business. The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers? So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.
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IQE关联巨头但负债高，属高风险博弈，波动性预计剧烈。
$IQE 是一家市值1.5亿美元的备受关注的公司，我发现了它与 $LITE（Lumentum）和 GOOGL（谷歌）之间的联系！不过，其资产负债表相当糟糕，处于净债务（Net Debt）状态。尽管如此，这更像是一场“孤注一掷的赌局”，即它在收发器(Transceiver)或超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)供应链中的重要性，是否能抵消其糟糕的财务状况。顺便说一句，这只股票的波动性（Volatility）看起来会和 $AXTI 一样剧烈！
原推 ↗英文原文
$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で, $LITE （ルメンタム）や GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。 それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！
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询问何时卖出AXTI股票
@demarscrypto 谢谢 demarscrypto，如果你改变了对 $AXTI 的看法，请告诉我，这样我就知道何时卖出。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto Thank you demarscrypto, let me know if you change your mind on $AXTI so I know when to sell.
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AXTI因光电子供应链瓶颈受追捧，需挖掘多跳连接以发现未定价机会。
如果你听了匿名者的话，$AXTI 现在是不是已经‘上天’了？ 在 $GOOGL 创下资本支出记录后，市场正疯狂寻求光电子（Photonics）供应链的敞口。 如果你问 AI：“AXT 或 IQE 是否属于 Google TPU 供应链”： - 它会说“不”，因为存在被掩盖的多跳连接。 但如果你映射出从： $AXTI ($21亿) -> $IQE ($1.5亿) -> $LITE -> 超大规模客户 ASICs… 的流向，你可能会发现市场尚未定价的早期机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the Moon if you listened anon? Markets are scrambling to get exposure to photonics supply chains following $GOOGL record capex numbers. If you ask an AI: “Is AXT or IQE part of Google TPU supply chains”: - It will say no due to obscured multi-hop connections. But if you map the flow from: $AXTI ($2.1B) -> $IQE ($150M) -> $LITE -> Hyperscaler ASICs… You might discover something early that markets haven’t priced in.
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博主分享AXTI持仓两个月涨幅达310%。
@c_hadjikyriacou 是的，我的 $AXTI 持仓在两个月内上涨了 310% 哈哈。https://t.co/wm237iEqHT
原推 ↗英文原文
@c_hadjikyriacou Yeah I’m up 310% on my $AXTI position in 2 months lol. https://t.co/wm237iEqHT
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回顾AXTI股价两月翻三倍，嘲讽此前Reddit上的看空言论。
@Cheva28789724 我想在我最初的 Reddit 帖子中，关于 $AXTI 没有一条正面评论 lol！其中一半人称之为骗局。希望他们两个月后看到股价翻三倍时能感到开心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Cheva28789724 I don’t think there was a single positive comment on $AXTI on my original Reddit post lol! Half of them called it a scam. Hope they enjoy seeing it go up 3x 2 months later
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分析AXTI双寡头地位及IQE作为外延晶圆龙头的估值潜力。
是的，分析得很到位！$AXTI 基本上在两个不同的瓶颈环节（上游原料加工和磷化铟(InP)衬底）处于双寡头地位。 $IQE 确实非常关键，但大多数人并没有将 $LITE 与其他超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)进行映射关联。 它可能是西方最大的外延晶圆(Epiwafer)工厂，其市值($38.5亿)与 IQE($1.5亿)的巨大差异，主要源于资产负债表状况以及纯题材(Pure Play)暴露度的不同。 如果他们能转向纯题材并消除拖累因素，估值重估(Rerate)的空间可能会相当大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, that’s a good analysis! $AXTI is basically a duopoly in two different bottlenecks (upstream feedstock processing and InP substrates). $IQE is really critical but most people don’t really do the mapping to $LITE to other hyperscalers. It’s probably the largest western epiwafer fab, and landmark is $3.85B MC. vs IQE $150m mainly due to balance sheet and pure play exposure. If they just pivot to pure play the cut the drag could be rerated quite a bit
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对比AI供应链中实际应用的半导体公司与科研项目类公司。
@martijnde_boer $ALMU 和 $POET 感觉更像是科研项目，而 $AXTI、$IQE、$LITE 等都在超大规模数据中心(hyperscaler)供应链中实际使用。 鉴于 $POET 资金充裕且通过 Celestial 拥有后门(backdoors)，其机会更大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@martijnde_boer $ALMU and $POET feel more like science projects while $AXTI, $IQE, $LITE and others are all actively used in hyperscaler supply chains. $POET has a better chance given they’re well funded and have backdoors via Celestial.
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博主回顾其光子学个股研究，称相关标的均实现翻倍或数百点涨幅。
这观点经得起时间考验。我写过深度分析帖的光子学(Photonics)个股，从 $LITE 到 $AXTI，股价要么翻倍，要么上涨了几百个百分点。https://t.co/uOKGPFpJha
原推 ↗英文原文
This aged well. Every photonics name I’ve done a thesis post on from $LITE to $AXTI has doubled or increased a few hundred percent. https://t.co/uOKGPFpJha
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AI供应链客户归属难确认，仅能通过财报营收增长侧面印证。
@Crawfordbro11 无法100%确定其准确性。未来这很可能仅体现为 $AXTI 或 $IQE 财报中营收的增长，而不会有像 Google 或 Microsoft 这样的公司明确声明“我们使用 x 供应商”。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Crawfordbro11 No way to 100% know if it's correct or not. It would probably just show up as a increase in revenue in the earnings for $AXTI or $IQE in the future without a company like Google or Microsoft saying "we use x supplier" https://t.co/HCsGhaPbqJ
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通过多跳关系映射，挖掘光子学上游关键供应商AXTI和IQE的投资逻辑与风险。
-> $LITE 是 $GOOGL 的已知供应商。 -> $IQE 是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 -> $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。 Google TPU 和超大规模客户 ASIC 的物料清单(BOM)极其机密。 但即使没人会说 $AXTI 或 $IQE 供应给某家超大规模客户，你也能通过关系映射大致推测出来。 你会惊讶于有多少多跳关系被忽视了。 （引用内容）：我是第一个讨论 $AXTI 与光子学物料清单/供应链关系的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模客户 ASIC 的光子学流向，大概如下（很可能，但未披露）： 光收发器（最高 BOM）： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ 关键 / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant 光学供应链： ~ 关键 / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学 BOM 更上游的“登月计划”型/涨价股：$AXTI 和 $IQE 是必经之路。 $AXTI 此前基本面很差，但最近的 Northland 融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 目前基本面很差（净债务 2350 万英镑），但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，仅凭其 inp 业务，股价大幅上涨也不足为奇。 有 1800 万英镑可转换票据（几乎可以忽略不计），然后是新发 1.2 亿至 1.54 亿股（~12% 至 15%），相对于当前规模也几乎可以忽略不计。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值 1.3 亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像 Wolfspeed 那样。所以风险巨大，务必自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
原推 ↗英文原文
-> $LITE is a known $GOOGL supplier. -> $IQE is a known $LITE supplier. -> $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. Google TPU + Hyperscaler ASIC BOM are extremely confidential. But you can kinda guess from relationship mapping even though nobody will say $AXTI or $IQE supplies to X hyperscaler? You'd be surprised how multi-hop relationships are missed.
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梳理AXTI-IQE-LITE供应链，指出市场或遗漏光子学标的。
@Huyster11 我在 $AXTI 上赚了几百%，所以我过得很好！ 只是想聊聊 $IQE，它是 $LITE 的知名供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的知名供应商。 大家都在买入与谷歌资本支出挂钩的光子学交易，但感觉市场可能漏掉了一两个名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Huyster11 I’ve made a few hundred % on $AXTI so I’m doing fine! Just wanted to talk about $IQE which is a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. Everyone’s buying up the photonic trade tied with Google capex but feels like markets might have missed one or two names
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博主因熟悉光子供应链，引入IQE作为潜在赢家观察。
不完全是！我只是对光子学(Photonics)供应链比能源领域更熟悉一些，所以我喜欢挑选潜在的赢家。 只是想像引入 $AXTI 那样把 $IQE 纳入考量，这样如果结果不错，我三个月后就能发一篇“你们听我的了吗(Anon)？”的帖子。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not exactly! I'm just a tad more familiar with photonic supply chains than I am with energy so I like picking potential winners. Just wanted to introduce $IQE into the equation like i did with $AXTI, so I could do a "Did you Listen Anon?" post 3 months later if it turns out well.
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AXTI 自发帖低点以来涨幅达 300%，市值 19 亿美元。
@Cheva28789724 $AXTI 市值为 19 亿美元，从我发帖那天的低点算起，回报率约为 300%！https://t.co/yIIUyXHxKd
原推 ↗英文原文
@Cheva28789724 $AXTI is $1.9B, around 300% return from the bottom of the day when I posted! https://t.co/yIIUyXHxKd
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解析光子学上游供应链，看好AXTI与IQE但提示IQE稀释风险。
我是最早将 $AXTI 与光子学(BOM)/供应链联系起来的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模ASIC的光子学流程，大概是这样（很可能，但未披露）： 光模块(最高BOM)： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工制造) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant optical 供应链： ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学BOM/涨价的“登月型”股票，更上游的光子学BOM：$AXTI, $IQE 是你的方向。 $AXTI 之前基本面很差，但最近的Northland融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 现在基本面很差（净债务2350万英镑）但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，我不惊讶它会仅因inp业务就大幅上涨。 有1800万英镑可转换票据（这几乎没什么），然后是1.2亿到1.54亿新股（~12%到15%），相对于当前规模也几乎没什么。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值1.3亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像Wolfspeed那样。所以巨大、巨大的风险，请自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).
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等待财报往往滞后，应通过衍生品价格、新闻及同行财报寻找信号。
@YieldKrakers 如果你等到实际财报发布，大多数时候你已经迟了。所有的信号都来自衍生品，比如上海有色网(SMM)上$AXTI 7N铟的非标价格，从新闻中寻找超额收益(alpha)，或者来自其他公司的相关财报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@YieldKrakers If you wait for actual earnings most of the times you’re a little late. All the signals are from derivatives like 7n indium nonstandard prices on SMM for $AXTI, finding alpha in news, or correlated earnings from other companies.
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分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
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AXTI波动剧烈需控仓，是AI光子学瓶颈环节标的。
@SL2056 是的，$AXTI 每天波动 20%，这就是为什么我说在入场交易前建立自己的确信度并正确控制仓位规模非常重要。如果你能承受这种波动性，我认为 AXT 是 AI 基础设施建设中光子学领域的一个很好的瓶颈环节标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SL2056 Yeah $AXTI moves 20% a day which is why I say it’s really important to build conviction yourself before you enter a trade + size positions correctly. If you can stomach the volatility, I think AXT is a great bottleneck play for the AI buildout with photonics
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祝贺粉丝收益，指出SNDK和AXTI大涨，认为做空报告将助推行情。
@MrHase0 恭喜年内至今(YTD)收益67%！ 是的，$SNDK 和 $AXTI 大幅跑赢市场，过去两个月涨幅均超过100%。 我认为 Citron Research 近期对 SanDisk 的做空报告只会为这波上涨行情火上浇油。https://t.co/s15nu19khI
原推 ↗英文原文
@MrHase0 Congrats on 67% YTD! Yeah $SNDK and $AXTI have been hard outperforming the market both up over 100%+ in the last two months. I think the recent Citron shorts to Sandisk will just add fuel to the rally. https://t.co/s15nu19khI
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回顾AXTI股价验证其两个月前被质疑的投资论点。
谢谢！主要是 X 平台，但我在 Reddit 上也收获了不少关注。还记得 $AXTI 在暴跌 20% 后跌至 12-13 美元时，我发过评论却遭到了大量负面反应。自那以后股价基本翻了三倍，所以当市场在两个月后验证了我的论点帖子时，感觉确实不错。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! It’s mainly X but I did get a fair share of stuff on Reddit too. Still remember $AXTI was $12-$13 after the 20% drop, I made a comment about it and got a lot of negative reactions. It’s basically tripled since then, so it does feel good when markets vindicate my thesis posts 2 months later.
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回应黑粉质疑，以AXTI大涨验证长期看多逻辑的正确性。
我觉得随着我的账号成长，我现在有了一个专属的“黑粉”粉丝团。 市场是最终的裁判，这使得这些（负面评论）像牛奶一样迅速变质，真是有趣。 $AXTI 自从我首次发帖以来已经上涨了三位数（本周又涨了50%）。 我认为我大多数长篇看多论点的方向是正确的，但它们确实需要时间来兑现。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like as my account grows, I have my own dedicated hate poster fanclub now. Markets are the final arbiter, which makes it funny to these things age like milk. $AXTI is now up triple digits since I first posted about it (and another 50% this week) I do think most of my thesis long posts are directionally right, but they do need time to play out.
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分享412%收益来源，推荐存储、光子等瓶颈板块，强调顺势轮动。
年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分归功于选对了板块，从 Jane Street 算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈环节的多头持仓方面，目前我最看好： 1. 存储 - 三星、SK 海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI，（也许还有山形电机，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC 和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些标的。 但其中大多数甚至全部在短期内上涨了 50-100%+，这放大了交易的整体回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是：跟随资金流向和当前的瓶颈环节进行轮动。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转操作。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点经验！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
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博主分享AXTI持仓盈利233%，计划加仓摊低成本。
@crux_capital_ 是的……我在其中一笔 $AXTI 头寸上盈利 233%，本应更集中地配置它…… 我可能会通过买入更多股份来摊低成本。 https://t.co/1ruvbUIJj9
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ It is… I’m up 233% on one of my $AXTI positions, should have put more concentration into it… I’ll probably cost avg up with shares. https://t.co/1ruvbUIJj9
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博主感叹市场普涨15-20%并提及AXTI。
是我一个人觉得吗，这个市场里所有东西每天都在涨15-20%？ $AXTI https://t.co/umqkqUvK0T
原推 ↗英文原文
Is it just me or is everything going up 15-20% a day in this market? $AXTI https://t.co/umqkqUvK0T
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作者按战略价值排序光子学供应链个股，并分享个人仓位偏好。
$AXTI 是我的首选，仅因其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的战略价值。$LITE 紧随其后，若展望两年后则严重被低估，但目前看来略显超买。$COHR 大概排第三，$AAOI 排第四，作为另一只潜力股(Moonshot)，其凭借 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量获得了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资质。话虽如此，我个人不喜欢在 $AXTI 这类小盘股上配置过高仓位，尽管 $COHR 排名第三，但我对其持仓比例最高。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains. Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended. Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp. That being said don’t personally like high allocations in smaller stocks like $AXTI, highest might be in $COHR despite it being #3
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看好AXTI光子潜力及美股科技巨头，建议做多黄金。
$MU - 最终更看好 SK Hynix，但这是更安全的“美国制造”标的。 $AXTI 还有很长的路要走，需等待1年直到极端短缺出现。可能是光子学(Photonics)板块中回报潜力最大的最爱。 $EWY - Vega扩张的尾声，隐含波动率(IV)可能会将其推高一点。但如果你买入看涨期权(Call)，应是因为 KOSPI 上涨而非博弈 IV。 做多黄金是好的，因为外国正在大量买入并抛售美国国债。不喜欢在当前价位做空比特币(Bitcoin)。 $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 在当前估值下具有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MU - ended up liking SK Hynix more but safer made in America play $AXTI long way to go, 1 year wait until extreme shortage hits. Prob my favorite in photonics sector for return potential $EWY - tail end of Vega expansion, IV will likely send it a tad higher. But if you’re buying calls do it because KOSPI goes up not for IV plays. Gold longs are good because foreign countries are buying it up and selling Us treasuries. Don’t like Bitcoin puts at these levels. $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are attractive at these valuations.
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AXTI 2027-28 年有望因光子学放量及出口管制受益。
@crypticTooth 我之前分享过这张图表，但基本上 2027-2028 年才是 $AXTI 真正有趣的时候，可能伴随类似存储芯片的价格上涨。这只是在光子学(CPO)放量以及中国出口管制开始生效之前的初步尽职调查(DD)。 https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
原推 ↗英文原文
@crypticTooth I’ve shared this graph before but basically 2027-2028 is where the real fun should begin with $AXTI + possible memory-style price hikes. This is just early DD before the photonics ramp + China export controls should start kicking into gear. https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh
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通过供应链瓶颈分析挖掘AXTI的超额收益逻辑。
$AXTI 是你如何寻找超额收益(alpha)的完美例子。 在过去的几周里，我展示了： - 7纳米铟在标准金属市场(SMM)达到历史新高(ATH) - 来自 Litecounting 和其他分析师预测的光子供应链飙升 - 与日本和中国的贸易冲突影响住友电工(Sumitomo)及上游竞争对手的原料供应 - 超大规模云服务商资本支出流向专用集成电路(ASIC)和半导体供应链，如 $LITE - 谷歌张量处理单元(TPU)的光子物料清单(BOM)估算 - 美国政府没收资产后优先发展磷化铟(InP)供应链 我发现 $AXTI 在衬底生产以及上游原料方面拥有重大瓶颈控制力。 这就是你如何在一个月或两个月内找到超额收益并实现股票三位数回报的方式。 而不是等待财报并看到更新的 35 美元以上的分析师目标价。 这是我坐下来让市场消化我所做研究的时期。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is the perfect example of how you find alpha. Over the past few weeks I’ve shown: - 7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs - photonic supply chains from litecounting and other analyst projections skyrocketing - trade conflicts with Japan and China affecting Sumitomo and upstream competitor feedstock - hyperscaler capex going into asics and semi supply chains like $LITE - estimated photonic BOM on Google TPUs - Us administration prioritizing InP supply chains after seizing assets And found that $AXTI has a major chokehold on both substrate production as well as upstream feedstock. This is how you find alpha and stock triple digit returns in a month or two. Not after waiting for earnings and seeing updated $35+ analyst price targets. This is the period where I sit back and let markets price in the research I’ve done.
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感谢博主，分享日本投资及AXTI翻倍收益与供应链研究心得。
真的非常感谢！我总是从您的帖子中吸收许多新信息。对日本的投资是我今年最大的成功（盈利交易）之一。 $AXTI 在短短时间内股价已经翻倍，目前进展顺利，我很高兴。虽然波动性非常剧烈，并非适合所有人的股票，但理解基板(substrate)和光子学(Photonics)的供应链有助于增强投资的信心！
原推 ↗英文原文
本当にありがとうございます！いつも投稿から多くの新しい情報を吸収させてもらっています。日本への投資は、今年の私の最大の成功（勝ちトレード）の一つです。 $AXTI も短期間ですでに株価が2倍になり、今のところ上手くいっていて嬉しいです。ボラティリティが非常に激しいので、万人に勧められる銘柄ではありませんが、基板やフォトニクスのサプライチェーンを理解することが、投資の確信を持つ助けになりますね！
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
你听劝了吗，匿名者？- $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： 警告：整个AI行业可能会受制于两家公司的瓶颈： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用磷化铟(InP)制造用于800G/1.6T光收发器的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会瘫痪。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光模块（TPU集群等） - 光收发器（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia未来的共封装光学(CPO)和Intel/Broadcom硅光子学(SiPh)引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友电工(Sumitomo)（估计~30%） - JX日矿（估计10-15%） 就这些。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电工+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HMB)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO
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博主澄清小盘股仓位低，但光子/存储及日韩股表现强劲。
谢谢，这些只是我投资组合中的小仓位。我在 $AXTI 或 $OSS 等小盘股上并没有高集中度持仓。 但它们在最近两个月仍上涨了约 70-80%，$LPTH 则基本盈亏平衡。 尽管美国市场近期有所下跌，但光子学(Photonics)/存储(Memory)板块以及日本/韩国的海外股票一直表现强劲，起到了支撑作用。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, those are small weightings of my portfolio. I don't have high concentration in small caps like $AXTI or $OSS. But they're still up 70-80% or so in the last 2 months, $LPTH is around breakeven. Photonics/Memory and foreign equities in Japan/Korea have been hard carrying despite any US recent market drop.
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博主刚午睡醒，原计划明日发布AXTI相关帖子。
@arsenalfccg 本来打算明天发一篇关于 $AXTI 的帖子，刚从一个长长的午睡中醒来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@arsenalfccg Was going to make a post tomorrow on $AXTI, just woke up from a long nap.
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高波动个股大涨，提示需调整组合权重以应对波动。
这只是市场里平平无奇的一天，从 - $OSS +26.23% 到 - $LPTH +21.0% 单日涨幅超过20%。 最重要的一课是：如果像 $AXTI 这样的高贝塔(高波动率)个股的波动让你难以忍受，那可能是你的投资组合权重配置错了。 https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
原推 ↗英文原文
Just your average day in the market with everything from - $OSS +26.23% to - $LPTH +21.0% Going up 20%+ in a day. Most important lesson is that if it’s hard to stomach volatility with these high beta names like $AXTI, maybe your portfolio weighting is wrong. https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
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解析InP供应链双瓶颈，指出AXTI因掌控全产业链而受益。
我认为细微差别在于存在两个不同的瓶颈。一个是原料/精炼加工，另一个是磷化铟(InP)衬底。住友/ $COHR 处于其中一个环节，但同样受到如7N非标准铟等原料定价的影响。我个人最看好 $AXTI 的原因是他们身处两个不同的瓶颈环节，因为他们拥有整个供应链并受益于价格上涨。全球大部分上游原料来自Vital或由AXT衍生。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think the nuance is that there’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refinery processing. The other is InP substrates. Sumitomo/ $COHR sits in one of them but are affected by feedstock pricing like 7n indium nonstandard. The reason I personally like $AXTI the most is because they sit in two different bottlenecks since they own the entire supply chain and benefit from price hikes. Most of the worlds upstream feedstock come from Vital or are derived from AXT
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类比AXTI出口管制，指出开心果虽受地缘影响但仍是弱长投。
@DoctorMeltzer 是的，这与 $AXTI 受到出口管制的情况类似。但伊朗开心果仍然能找到途径进入全球市场。对农业基础设施进行动能打击（Kinetic strikes）会扰乱这一流通。但毫无疑问，开心果是这批标的中较弱的长期投资选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DoctorMeltzer Yes, it’s similar to $AXTI being export controlled. But Iran Pistachios still find its way into the global market. Kinetic strikes on agricultural infrastructure would disrupt that flow. But Pistachios is a weaker long for sure out of the bunch.
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分析美伊冲突下开心果供应链垄断及石油国防股对冲机会
如果美国入侵伊朗，最有趣的受益者将是：开心果。绝非玩笑。你知道美国（加州）和伊朗在开心果生产上形成了虚拟双头垄断吗？这类似于 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的情况，两者控制了全球约70-80%的供应。如果加州成为垄断者，$JBSS 等公司可能会因开心果价格上涨而受益。不幸的是，没有开心果期货，所以我没有建立任何头寸，但这有趣的事实让我觉得好笑，所以想分享出来。我稍后会写一篇关于更细微的二阶效应和潜在做多标的的文章。美国打击似乎很可能，因此标准的石油股如 $CVX 或 $XLS 以及国防股如 $AVAV 或 $ITA 可能是不错的做多/对冲选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
The funniest beneficary if US invades Iran was: Pistachios. Not even joking. Did you know US (California) and Iran operate a virtual duopoly in pistachio production? This is the $AXTI InP situation as the two control ~70-80% of the world’s supply. Companies like $JBSS might benefit from Pistachio prices going up (if California becomes a monopoly) Unfortunately there’s no Pistachio Futures, so I’m not taking any positions but I just found this fun fact amusing, so wanted to share. I’ll do another writeup on more nuanced second order effects and potential longs soon. US strikes seem likely so standard oil like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here.
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博主承认错误，并指出某标的波动性类似AXTI。
@AI_PowerFlow 哈哈，我的错。不过准备好享受一段刺激的旅程吧，它的波动性可能和 $AXTI 差不多 https://t.co/2xEtVVES1N
原推 ↗英文原文
@AI_PowerFlow lol my bad. In for a fun ride though, it’s probably just as volatile as $AXTI https://t.co/2xEtVVES1N
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分享研究灵感来源：X平台互动、私信及线下讨论。
@yomattyboi - 其中三分之一来自像 @zephyr_z9 这样的 X 用户，他们引用转发我关于“$AXTI 磷化铟(InP) 兄弟们，你们考虑过 _ 吗？”的内容。然后我会进一步向上游进行研究。 - 另一部分来自评论区或人们提及股票时的私信(DM) - 最后一部分仅仅是线下的行业讨论
原推 ↗英文原文
@yomattyboi - 1/3rd of it is folks on X like @zephyr_z9 quote tweeting me about “ $AXTI InP bros, have you thought about _?” Then I do more research upstream. - other part is comment sections or DMs from people who tag about stocks - last part of it is just industry discussions irl
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AXTI为光子学最上游标的，ETF映射Semivision所述中游瓶颈。
@cronked $AXTI 是我的个人最爱，但它在光子学领域已经处于最上游了。上面的 ETF 只是将瓶颈名称映射到 Semivision 描述的主要瓶颈上，而这些瓶颈更多涉及中游公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@cronked $AXTI is my personal favorite but it’s as upstream as you can go for photonics. The ETF above is just bottleneck name mapping to what Semivision described as their top bottlenecks, which were more midstream companies.
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LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
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A开头半导体股因订单与瓶颈大涨，暗示供应链瓶颈改善。
哇…… $AEHR 今日因超大规模云服务商订单上涨30%+。 $ACMR 本周因中国存储（长鑫存储+长江存储）上涨29%。 $AXTI 本周因光子学(CPO)产能爬坡及谷歌资本支出上涨42%。 $AMKR 本周因先进封装瓶颈上涨19%。 也许以字母A开头的瓶颈是个好兆头？
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… $AEHR up 30%+ today on hyperscaler orders. $ACMR up 29% this week on China memory (cmxt + ymtc) $AXTI up 42% this week on photonics ramp and Google capex spend $AMKR up 19% this week w/ advanced packaging bottlenecks. Maybe the bottlenecks starting with letter A are a good sign?
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建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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用7N高纯铟指标追踪AXTI涨价及毛利提升。
@zephyr_z9 确实，7N高纯度铟（非标准产品）是我洗澡或睡觉时脑海中唯一的事情。但我将其作为衍生指标，用来追踪 $AXTI 可能的涨价、需求以及毛利率提升，因为这些在公开数据中并不明显。
原推 ↗英文原文
@zephyr_z9 True, 7N high purity indium (non standard products) is the only thing on my mind when I'm in the shower or sleeping. But it's the derivative metric I use to track $AXTI possible price hikes + demand + gross margin increases since it's not really visible from public data.
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回顾光子学供应链上游 $AXTI 的20倍涨幅及持有难度。
当时没多少散户真正了解光子学的极端扩张。甚至 $LITE 都极不引人注目。因此，一路追溯到 $AXTI，在他们仍受出口管制禁令时买入并全程持有，需要极大的信念。但错过了那20倍的涨幅确实很遗憾。
原推 ↗英文原文
not many too many retail really knew about the extreme photonics ramp back then. Even $LITE was extremely under the radar. So going all the way upstream to $AXTI while they were still export control banned + holding through it all would take a lot of conviction. But yeah sucks to miss out on that 20x
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AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。
$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。 这是价格上涨的衍生反映。 有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。 从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。 原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。 前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。 但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。 正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。 我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。 不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。 与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。 但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.
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感谢关注，$VLN表现不佳，$AXTI表现强劲。
@soulbiri1 @platochi 谢谢！我提到的其他一些股票如 $VLN 目前表现不如预期，但很高兴 $AXTI 能强力带动（行情）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 @platochi Appreciate it! Some of my other mentions like $VLN are not working out as well so far, but glad $AXTI is hard carrying.
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看好4D AI趋势，建仓$AEVA作为中游瓶颈的投机性敞口。
说到像 $AXTI 这样的其他瓶颈环节。 我一直在研究 4D AI。 与行业内部人士的交谈让我相信，继 $NVDA 黄仁勋的会议后，物理 AI 和人形机器人的“世界模型(World Models)”是一个即将到来的趋势。 因此我建仓了从事 4D 激光雷达(4D LiDAR)的 $AEVA。 根据我的研究，这看起来是该趋势中最清晰的功能性中游瓶颈敞口？ 除非有人想提及其他标的。 还有像 $AMBA、$U（是的，是游戏软件）、$TER 和 $OUST 这样的公司，但它们体量较大，且敞口不够清晰。 话虽如此，这仍是一个新领域，所以我仍在进行研究。此外，基本面尚不稳定，因此这更多是对行业增长的创投型押注。 披露：我仅持有 $AEVA 的多头头寸，作为对 4D AI 及物理 AI 世界模型的投机性敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI. I’ve been looking into 4D AI. Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference. So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? Unless someone has others they’d like to mention. There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure. That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth. Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.
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AXTI具垄断瓶颈地位，若提价将获估值重估。
@platochi @soulbiri1 我完全不知道 $AXTI 会如何发展。他们处于近乎垄断的瓶颈位置，所以如果他们愿意，可以像 $SNDK 和 $MU 那样大幅提价——从而获得巨大的估值重估。这主要取决于他们是否会这样做。
原推 ↗英文原文
@platochi @soulbiri1 I have zero clue how $AXTI plays out. They’re a near-monopoly choke point so if they wanted to they can hike prices like $SNDK and $MU -> be rerated massively. It’s mainly a matter if they’re going to do it or not.
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回顾AXTI翻倍经历，指出上游光子学瓶颈常藏于小型公司。
@platochi @soulbiri1 谢谢！当 $AXTI 还在 13 美元且被视为小型垃圾股(shtco)时，大家都说我错了。但两个月后它几乎翻了一番。AXT 确实是一个上游光子学(Photonics)瓶颈，这类机会往往存在于小型、不知名的公司中。
原推 ↗英文原文
@platochi @soulbiri1 Thanks! Everyone was saying I was wrong when $AXTI was $13 and a small cap shtco. But it ended up close to doubling 2 months later. AXT genuinely is an upstream photonics bottleneck, lot of times they’re found in small, unknown companies.
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$AXTI 一周大涨63%，市场开始定价上游供应链瓶颈。
$AXTI 一周上涨 63.29%，创年度新高。 受 $GOOGL 财报影响，光子学(Photonics)板块迎来疯狂反弹。 市场终于开始对上游瓶颈进行定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI up 63.29% in 1 week to new yearly highs. What a crazy photonics rally off $GOOGL earnings. Markets are finally pricing in upstream bottlenecks. https://t.co/YdEOofJWN8
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AXTI因磷化铟供应链瓶颈及政策利好，6周涨60%，成重要瓶颈多头标的。
@Berlinergy 我几乎可以肯定昨天发过一条关于 $AXTI 的帖子。 https://t.co/pq6tLRcrIS （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 自首次发布 $AXTI 帖子以来已过去6周。 股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没人在这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股上讨论过。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学(Photonics)的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元市值的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止向其竞争对手提供前体 - 7N级磷化铟价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland融资1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟供应链 已经6周了。我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将加速增长。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前建立自己的信念很重要。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Berlinergy Pretty sure I made an $AXTI related post yesterday https://t.co/pq6tLRcrIS
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持有CRDO因超跌，看好光子供应链相关个股。
@Frenchie_ 我持有 $CRDO，因为我认为跌至 95 美元是巨大的过度反应。 但我看好光子学(Photonics)供应链，比如 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 这类公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Frenchie_ I have $CRDO on there since I felt the selloff to $95 was a huge overreaction. But I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈，看好存储、光子及台积电，指出中游为定价关键。
以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR（太长不看版）及其映射到投资框架的内容： HBM（高带宽内存）： HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星，SK 海力士，$MU HBF（高带宽闪存）- $SNDK，Kioxia Base Die（基础晶圆）- $TSM，三星（内部） CPO（共封装光学）/光子学： 玻璃基板：$GLW，$INTC，Ibiden 光学：$LITE，$AVGO，$COHR，$MRVL 电力传输： 电压：$MPWR，$VICR 散热：$VRT，$NVT，$MOD 电网：$ETN，$SBGSY SiC/GaN（碳化硅/氮化镓）：$ON，$IFNNY 机架：$APH N2 产能： $TSM，$AMD（数据中心先行者），$QLCM，联发科，$NVDA 先进封装： 良率：$CAMT，$ONTO，$KLAC OSATs（外包半导体组装与测试）：$AMKR $BESIY，Disco Semivision 的总结： 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新（SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构）” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的，我对上述的存储/光子学领域（如 SK 海力士/三星，$SNDK，$MU，$LITE）以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸，比如 $AXTI（磷化铟前驱体），但中游玩家是瓶颈所在，并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解，我添加了相关公司的评论。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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回应质疑，分享AXTI股价大涨验证其上游瓶颈研究逻辑。
谢谢！我记得曾看到很多评论说 $AXTI 是“骗局股”之类的，因为其市值较小。但许多瓶颈隐藏在上游深处。我曾为许多风险投资机构(VC)做尽职调查(DD)，因此习惯于研究这类小盘股及其财务报表。我并非事事正确，但很高兴 $AXTI 前景看好，且我的投资论点已反映在股价60%以上的涨幅中。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you! I remember seeing a lot of comments that stuff like $AXTI was "scam stock", etc. bc of the market cap. But a lot of bottlenecks are hidden deep upstream. I used to do DD for a lot of VC, so I'm used to looking into smaller stocks + financials like these. I don't get everything right, but glad $AXTI is looking promising + my thesis so far is reflected in the 60%+ stock price increase.
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AXTI因InP供应链瓶颈逻辑6周涨60%，成AI光子学关键瓶颈标的。
自我发布关于 $AXTI 的初始帖子以来，已经过去了6周。 它的股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没有人在这上面讨论这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止了其竞争对手的前体材料 - 7N级磷化铟(InP)价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland筹集了1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟(InP)供应链。 这6周里，我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将增长最快。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前，重要的是建立你自己的信念。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post. It’s now up another 60%. Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X. Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics. And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars. Since then: - China export control banned precursors to their competitors - 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week - They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity - $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply - Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex - Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US. It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards. Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade. But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
原推 ↗英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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AXTI是光子学扩产隐性受益者，若引入强人管理将更看好。
@MrThomG_ 如果 Martin Shkreli 加入董事会，展示在拥有垄断地位时该如何操作，我会对 $AXTI 更看好。不过，AXT 确实是光子学(CPO)扩产的一个隐性受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MrThomG_ I would be more bullish on $AXTI if Martin Shkreli joined the board to show em how it's done when you have a monopoly. But yeah AXT is a hidden beneficiary on photonics ramp.
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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博主坦言投资也有亏损，指出部分AI股估值与现金或基本面严重脱节。
我完全没头绪。很多人看到我发了大量像 $OSS 或 $AXTI 这样的高收益论点帖子，但当我判断错误时，我也确实会亏钱。 而且我确实是真金白银地践行我的观点（skin in the game）。 我曾与其他分析师讨论，他们都感到困惑。对于 $ETOR 和 $VLN，我发现它们与市场的明显脱节，两者交易价格接近其现金余额，但显然市场并不认同我的观点。 如果 $NBIS 正在通过自动取款机(ATM)增发，那稍微说得通一些，但其运营业务并未通过分部加总法(Sum of Parts)得到正确定价。 至于 Nebius，如果市值仍为 210 亿美元，而年底年化经常性收入(ARR)为 70 亿美元，那我就不知道了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong. And I do put my money where my mouth is. I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me. $NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly. With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.
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对比AXTI与LPTH，认为AXTI具更高纯上行潜力
所以 $AXTI 是我找到的最接近 NAND/HBM 类型价格挤压交易（针对光子学）的标的。 $LPTH 是一个利用黑钻解决锗瓶颈的方案，更多是长期供应链向“美国制造”转型的举措。 风险水平和上行空间不同，但就纯上行潜力而言，我会保留 AXT。
原推 ↗英文原文
So $AXTI is the next closest thing to NAND/HBM type price squeeze play (for photonics) that I've found. $LPTH is a germanium bottleneck fix w/black diamond that is more of an long term supply chain pivot to Made in America over time. Different risk levels and upside but pure upside I'd maintain AXT.
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7N铟价创新高，AI需求致上游供应瓶颈显现，涨价在即。
7N铟价格在SMM上刚刚创下历史新高，且毫无放缓迹象。 $AXTI 的瓶颈正在实时上演。 西方超大规模云服务商似乎正在吸收用于AI建设的几乎所有磷化铟(InP)衬底和前驱体供应。 就像 $SNDK 和 $MU 一样，对于像AXT这样的上游供应商来说，这只是一场等待涨价（类似NAND）的博弈。 供应冲击似乎不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down. The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time. Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout. Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND). The supply shock feels inevitable.
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极度看好AXTI并净买入，因替代风险减持LPTH，因避免恐慌而谨慎发布卖出更新。
$AXTI 在我发布的股票组合中，我对它实际上极其看好，并且在这个价位我是净买入者。我会发后续帖子，但我只是看到铟（Indium）价格每天都在上涨。如果你看2027-2028年，光子学（Photonics）的扩张速度令人难以置信。我对其他股票如 $OSS 进行了减仓，因为它已经上涨了100%，但我仍然持有仓位。$LPTH 有一些关于更便宜的锗（Germanium）替代品的令人担忧的消息，所以我减少了一些仓位。我处于一种奇怪的境地，我需要诚实/客观，但我不喜欢发布看跌更新或当我卖出时，因为我不想传播恐慌。所以我倾向于谨慎，除非是非常重大的事件（如定向增发 ATM），否则我不发帖。上次我发帖说卖出 $IREN 时，接下来的几周我收到了大量的负面评论垃圾信息。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI I’m actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I’ve posted and im a net buyer at these levels. I’ll make a follow-up post but I just see 7n indium prices increase every day. And the photonics ramp are incredible if you look at 2027-2027. I did take cut on others like $OSS, after a 100% rally but still hold positions. $LPTH there was some concerning stuff regarding cheaper germanium alternatives so I did trim some positions. I’m in a weird situation where I need to be truthful/objective but don’t enjoy posting bear updates or when I sell since I don’t want to spread panic. So I just lean on the side of caution by refraining from it unless it’s extremely material (like an ATM) Last time I posted about selling $IREN I had a flood of negative comment spam for the next few weeks.
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认同$AXTI看涨观点，受光子学扩产及出口管制影响，InP价格预计上涨。
@DanilSer33 $AXTI 观点一致，光子学(Photonics)产能正在爬坡，7纳米磷化铟(InP)价格看涨。中国对日本的出口管制将收紧库存。我们将观察未来一年的演变情况。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DanilSer33 $AXTI same view, photonics ramping up, 7n InP prices are going higher. China export controls on Japan will tighten inventory. We’ll see how it plays out over the next year
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发布西方供应链瓶颈小盘股清单，警示瓶颈不等于好投资。
@__EthanHunt__ 我在潜在瓶颈列表中列出了 $WOLF，这家公司确实很有趣。但“瓶颈”和“好投资”之间是有区别的。我觉得我做的尽职调查(DD)不能白费，所以干脆把它发出来了。 https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
原推 ↗英文原文
@__EthanHunt__ I listed $WOLF in my list of potential bottlenecks, and the company genuinely is interesting. But there's a difference between "bottleneck" and good investment. Felt my the DD I did would go to waste, so ended up just posting it. https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
原推 ↗英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
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AXTI光子学原料受出口禁令影响，数月后或现瓶颈。
@0x_ysn 这与存储芯片关系不大，因为 $AXTI 涉及的是光子学(Photonics)输入端，几个月内会出现瓶颈。我们将看到西方公司在两周前的出口禁令后，还有多少个月的原料/前驱体库存可供消耗。
原推 ↗英文原文
@0x_ysn Not really related to memory since $AXTI is for photonics inp bottleneck in a few months time. We’ll see how many months of feedstock/precursors Western companies have + use up post export-ban 2 weeks ago.
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AXTI波动属正常现象，常现30%随机涨跌。
@taKong2024 没什么特别的，$AXTI 只是正常的波动性，因为它经常出现随机的30%涨跌幅。
原推 ↗英文原文
@taKong2024 Nothing, it’s just normal volatility with $AXTI since it has random 30% movements
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博主回应批评改在盘中发文，并展示其过往论点均获正收益。
感谢大家的指正。很多人私信我，认为在盘后或隔夜发布投资论点(Thesis)会因流动性不足而加剧市场波动。因此，我改为在交易时段发布我的思考过程。我无法控制市场如何为信息发现定价，也无法控制我分享观点后的影响。自发布以来，$AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 等大多数股票上涨了 70% 且仍在上涨。像 $VLH 或 $LPTH 这样的股票也上涨了约 20-30%。我认为到目前为止，还没有任何一个论点在长期来看是亏损的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for calling me out on that. A lot of people messaged me privately that posting a thesis during after-hours/overnight would make things a lot worse due to lack of liquidity. So I end up posting my thought process during market hours instead. I have no control over how markets price in information discovery or me sharing my perspective on things. Most stocks from $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS are up 70% since I posted and still keep going up. Stuff like $VLH or $LPTH are up roughly 20-30%. I don't think there's been a single thesis that's been red over time so far.
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博主表示持有AXTI以应对其20%的随机波动，避免频繁交易。
@jliljliljlil $AXTI 随机上下波动 20%，我只是持有它，而不是试图进行波段交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jliljliljlil $AXTI moves up and down randomly 20%, I just hold it instead of trying to trade it.
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Lightpath的锗是AI供应链关键瓶颈
@bennybigbull 我原本有关于 $LPTH 和 $AXTI 的深度撰写案例，但文章太长所以我删减了一个。不过是的，Lightpath 的锗(Germanium)是主要瓶颈之一 https://t.co/1cUXeoXMbX
原推 ↗英文原文
@bennybigbull I originally had two examples with $LPTH and $AXTI in depth writeups but the article got too long so I trimmed one of them. But yes Lightpath for Germanium is one of the big bottlenecks https://t.co/1cUXeoXMbX
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分析WOLF、LPKFF等AI供应链瓶颈股的投资潜力与稳定性。
$WOLF 在重组后可能是上面最有趣的一个。 $LPKFF 也涉及玻璃基板，且拥有激光诱导深蚀刻技术，市值仅 $1.69 亿，因此可能具有最具爆发力的 10 倍上行空间。 $MTRN 可能是上面最稳定的一个，鉴于其拥有约占全球 65% 的铍（Beryllium）储量，上行空间相当可观。 还有其他几只，但要么基本面真的很差，要么其瓶颈环节过于小众。 例如 $LPTH 的瓶颈横跨国防、AI、无人机等多个领域。 $AXTI 的瓶颈规模很大，而 AI 本身就是一个巨大的板块，因此不需要分散（尽管磷化铟(InP)也用于许多其他领域)。
原推 ↗英文原文
$WOLF was probably the most interesting one up there after restructuring. $LPKFF also for glass substrates and they own the laser induced deep etching at a $169m MC, so possibly most explosive 10x upside. $MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decently high upside given it owns the mountain for ~65% of the world's Beryllium. There were a few others but just the fundamentals were either really bad or their bottleneck was too niche. $LPTH's bottleneck for example spreads across both defense, AI, drones, etc. $AXTI's bottleneck was so big and AI is such a big sector so it doesn't need to be spread across (but InP is used in a lot of other sectors too).
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梳理西方供应链瓶颈小盘股，警示基本面风险，看好部分标的5倍潜力。
个人研究摘要。 西方供应链瓶颈如 $LPTH 和 $AXTI： $MTRN - 铍（Spor Mountain） $HALEU - 铀 | 小型模块化反应堆(SMRs) $ESE - 太空燃料箱（通过 Vacco） $GHM - 真空喷射器与表面冷凝器 | 美国海军 $FEIM - 原子钟 $OPXS - 光激光潜望镜 $TAYD - 振动 $PKE - 热 $VNP.TO - 西方镓 $TDY - 抗辐射图像传感器 $RDW - 展开式太阳能电池阵列 $PDFS - 英特尔 18A 的 Exensio 良率 $WOLF - 碳化硅 $RELL - 超级电容器与磁控管 $CPSH - 热管理/铝碳化硅 $VREX - X 射线管 $GSM - 西方金属硅 $INTT - 极端热循环 $CODA - 浊度（浑浊） $NTI - 腐蚀 $PLAB - 光掩模 $MKSI - 等离子体控制 $KULR - 爆炸性热量 $PESI - 放射性混合废物。 $CVV - 气相沉积成固。 $LPKFF - 激光诱导深刻蚀/玻璃基板 这些只是我研究的更多“低调”小盘股 -> 最终选择了 $AXTI 和 $LPTH，如果有人感兴趣的话。 其中许多尽管至关重要，但基本面很差，例如：$IQE（已广为人知），所以盲目买入瓶颈股并不是个好主意。 还有更多我尚未完成研究的（因此未列入），要找出那些尚未被定价的标的要难得多。 但如果其中许多在未来一年上涨 5 倍，我也不会感到惊讶。
原推 ↗英文原文
Personal TLDR research. Western supply chain bottlenecks like $LPTH and $AXTI: $MTRN - Beryllium (Spor Mountain) $HALEU - Uranium | SMRs $ESE - Space fuel tanks (through Vacco) $GHM - Vacuum Ejectors & Surface Condensers | U.S. Navy $FEIM - Atomic Clocks $OPXS - Light Laser Periscopes $TAYD - Vibration $PKE - Heat $VNP.TO - Western gallium $TDY - Rad-Hard Image Sensors $RDW - Roll-Out Solar Arrays $PDFS - Exensio Yield for Intel 18A $WOLF - Silicon Carbide $RELL - Ultracapacitors & Magnetrons $CPSH - Thermal / Aluminum Silicon Carbide $VREX - X-Ray Tubes $GSM - Western Silicon Metal $INTT - Extreme Thermal Cycling $CODA - Turbidity (Murkiness) $NTI - Corrosion $PLAB - Photomask $MKSI - Plasma Control $KULR - Explosive Heat $PESI - Radioactive mixed waste. $CVV - Gas-to-Solid Deposition. $LPKFF - Laser Induced Deep Etching/ Glass Substrates These are just more of the "under the radar" small caps I was researching -> ended up choosing $AXTI and $LPTH if people were interested. Lot of them have terrible fundamentals despite being vital eg: $IQE (already pretty known), so it's not a good idea to just blindly buy a bottleneck. There were a lot more out there I haven't finished researching (so didn't include), and it's a lot harder to pinpoint ones that haven't been priced in. But wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these went up 5x over the next year.
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机构算法交易二阶效应，博主致力于让供应链影响对散户更易理解。
谢谢，很多人看到了新闻，但大多数人并没有真正看到市场的一阶、二阶效应，或者无法得出可操作的见解。通常，这完全是全新的信息发现，比如关于 $AXTI 和磷化铟(InP)瓶颈，或者 $OSS 及其在美国对委内瑞拉突袭中的使用。但机构算法是基于这种映射进行交易的，我只是让供应链/关系影响对散户来说更易消化。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, a lot of people see the news but majority don’t really see second-third order effects on markets or can come to actionable insights. Often times it’s completely novel information discovery like with $AXTI and InP bottlenecks or $OSS and their usage in the US raid in Venezulea But institutional algorithms trade off this mapping and I’m just making supply chains/relational impacts digestible for retail.
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识别AI供应链中工程变通与瓶颈环节的投资机会
@crux_capital_ 写得很好！我相信所有参与者都能从中受益，无论是像 $POET 和 $ALMU 这样的工程变通方案(Engineering Workarounds)，还是像 $AXTI 这样的瓶颈环节本身。通过识别正确的参与者，存在大量机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ Great writeup! I'm sure all players benefit both in engineering workarounds like $POET and $ALMU as well as the bottleneck itself like $AXTI. Lot of opportunities by identifying the right players.
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确认InP供应链属国安优先，短期加剧ATI瓶颈，AXT略偏多。
好问题，我当时没把1+1联系起来，错过了对$AXTI的单跳关联影响。我的观点是，短期/中期基本无影响，但由于有6个月的空窗期，对AXT略微偏多。Emcore相比之下非常小，但美国政府正试图掌控上游控制的任何微小份额。这证实了美国政府现在将磷化铟(InP)供应链视为国家安全优先事项，并验证了我之前提出的InP瓶颈论点。TLDR：行政令接管InP供应链资产是为了长期摆脱对中国的依赖，但短期/中期$ATI的瓶颈甚至更严重。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question, I didn't put 1+1 together at the time and missed the one-hop relational impact with $AXTI. My take is basically, no impact short/medium term, but leans slightly positive for AXT since there's a 6 month limbo. Emcore is very tiny in comparison, but US gov is trying to gain control of any little % of the upstream control. This was just affirmation that US government now views InP supply chains as a national security priority and is validating the InP bottlenek thesis I put out earlier. TLDR: EOs seizing InP supply chain assets was a move to regain independence from China long term, but short-medium term bottleneck is even more severe with $ATI
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博主坚持投资论点，对多只AI供应链股进行长期持有与加仓。
@truncateit 我确实相信我的投资论点，所以我会对像 $AIRO 和 $LPTH 这样的标的进行成本平均加仓。但如果你好奇的话，是的，我仍然持有 $OSS、$AIRO、$LPTH、$SSYS、$AXTI、$VLN 以及其他我做过尽职调查(DD)的股票，因为它们旨在作为1年期的持仓，而不是12小时的短线交易。https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
原推 ↗英文原文
@truncateit I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH. But if you're curious yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN, and others I do DD on since they're meant to be 1 year holds, not 12 hour ones. https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
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AXTI获买入评级及政策利好，验证其在AI基建中的关键地位。
这是一个中性进展。Craig-Hallum 对 $AXTI 给出 $26 目标价“买入”评级，以及特朗普关于磷化铟(InP)供应控制的行政令，只是再次确认了投资逻辑。大多数人一个月前在 $14 时认为 AXT 只是一只被炒作后抛售的 $600m 仙股，因为当时我是少数提及它的人。这类后续新闻进一步验证了 InP 和 AXT 在 AI 基础设施建设中扮演的关键角色。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a neutral development. Craig-Hallum's $AXTI $26 PT "Buy" analyst report and Trump's executive order for InP supply control is just reaffirming the thesis. Majority of people thought AXT was just a pump/dump $600m penny stock a month ago at $14 since I was one of the only people to mention it. Follow-up news like this just validates how critical of a role both InP and AXT plays in the AI buildout.
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特朗普行政令强制剥离InP资产，验证供应链瓶颈，利好AXTI等西方替代厂商。
行政令：“特朗普总统命令HieFo剥离磷化铟(Indium Phosphide, InP)资产” 关于1月2日行政令的后续报道显示，特朗普总统针对的是HieFo旗下Emcore Corp.的InP晶圆制造业务。 由于$AXTI和住友控制着约80%的供应链（Fastmarket Research数据），通过强制出售，美国可能确保InP供应链继续服务于美国国防承包商和AI半导体。 最初关于2日的报道对“芯片设计和制造资产”的表述较为宽泛，对InP的提及较少。 但现在很清楚，InP供应链已成为美国政府为了维持AI建设而面临的“无声紧急状态”。 如果美国总统签署行政令以获取InP供应链，这进一步验证了InP瓶颈论点。 我们可能会看到第三阶效应： -> 美国开始加速从$POET（光学中介层）到$ALMU（量子点）的工程替代方案。 -> InP瓶颈在短期内加剧，利好$AXTI（InP供应链+衬底）。 -> 可能影响$LITE及光学供应商的供应链中断（分析师报告对此有争议，涉及库存问题）。 -> 在Sumitomo/JX被出口管制切断对华材料供应后，西方替代品如$COHR变得更为关键。
原推 ↗英文原文
Executive Order: "President Trump orders HieFo to divest indium phosphide assets" A follow-up report on the Jan 2nd EO shows that President Trump targeted HieFo's InP wafer fabrication operations of Emcore Corp. As $AXTI and Sumitomo control ~80% of the supply chain (Fastmarket Research), by forcing the sale, the US likely ensures the InP supply chain remains available for US defense contractors and AI semiconductors. The original reporting on the 2nd was broad regarding the "chip design and fabrication assets" with light references to InP. But it's now clear this is now InP supply chains is becoming a silent emergency for the US government so the AI buildout continues. This is further validation of the InP bottleneck thesis if the US President is now signing executive orders to gain access to the InP supply chain. We'll likely see third order effects where: -> US starts rushes engineering alternatives from $POET (optical interposers) to $ALMU (quantum dot) -> InP bottleneck increase near term with $AXTI (InP supply chains + substrates) -> Potential influence supply chain disruption of $LITE and optical suppliers (this is debated from analyst reports over stockpiled) -> Western alternatives like $COHR becoming more critical after Sumitomo/JX are blocked off China material supply from export controls.
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列举近期持仓标的，表示将持有头寸一年以等待价值重估。
是的？最近发布的帖子包括：用于无人机的 $AIRO、用于边缘计算的 $OSS、用于机器人的 $SSYS、用于人工智能(AI)瓶颈的 $AXTI、用于国防瓶颈的 $LPTH 以及存在定价偏差的 $VLN。自重新评级(re-rating)不会在一两天或一两周内发生，可能需要数月才能显现，因此我将持有我的头寸一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes? $AIRO for drones, $OSS for edge, $SSYS for robotics, $AXTI for AI bottlenecks, $LPTH for defense bottlenecks and $VLN for mispricing were the most recent posts. I’m holding my share positions for a year since re-rating doesn’t happen in a day or week. Might take months to play out.
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强调在事件发生前发布论点，避免追高。
一般来说，如果你还在等波士顿动力Atlas机器人实现规模化量产，那你可能已经有点晚了。我喜欢在事件发生前就发布我的投资论点，就像之前对$AXTI或这次的$SSYS那样，这与那些只在行情波动后反应或在高位入场的人不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
In general, if you're waiting for Boston Dynamics Atlas to be at scale already, you're probably a little late. I like to post my thesis at the start before any moment happens like with $AXTI or in this case $SSYS, which is different than others who just react to movements or enter near the top.
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AXTI 大涨，看好人形机器人量产前的 SSYS 瓶颈机会。
@pepemoonboy 是的，我关于 $AXTI 的 AI 瓶颈观点表现不错。自发布以来上涨 78%，今天又涨了 20%。AI 瓶颈已经相当明显，但像 $SSYS 这样的机器人瓶颈环节非常低调，直到 Atlas 到 Optimus 的人形机器人量产爬坡。 https://t.co/tAgC1q7bss
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Yeah my AI bottleneck one in $AXTI has been doing well. Up 78% since posting and 20% today. AI bottlenecks are pretty obvious but robotics ones like $SSYS are very under the radar until humanoid production from Atlas to Optimus ramp up. https://t.co/tAgC1q7bss
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看好LPTH因美供应链垄断优势，担忧META受地缘政治影响。
太棒了！$LPTH 是我 2026 年目前为止最喜欢的多头持仓！我从未想过能找到能击败 $NBIS 的东西。 它比 $AXTI 更安全，因为这次是美国供应链，同时也在这个瓶颈修复方案上拥有垄断地位。 顺便说一句，我的 $META 仓位正在被重创 lol。美国即将入侵伊朗 + 战争通常会导致除国防、石油和安全股以外的任何股票抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nice! $LPTH is my favorite long of 2026 so far! I never thought I’d find something that would beat $NBIS. It’s also safer than $AXTI since it’s US supply chain this time but also has a monopoly over this bottleneck fix. On a side note, my $META positions are getting wrecked lol. Imminent US invasion of Iran + war usually causes a selloffs of anything non defense, oil, and safety stocks
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LPTH获军工巨头青睐且具垄断优势，有望成百亿公司
感谢。我发现 $LPTH 基本上就是美国的 $AXTI，所有顶级军工承包商，包括 Andruil、Lockheed、L3Harris、$ONDS 等都在转向他们。由于拥有美国海军研究实验室的授权，他们在此领域拥有垄断地位。完全可以预见这将成为一家市值超 100 亿美元的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate it. I found that $LPTH was the US $AXTI basically and all the top military contractors from Andruil, Lockheed, L3Harris, $ONDS, and everyone were switching to them. And they have the monopoly over it bc of US naval research lab licenses. Can easily see this being a $10B+ company down the road.
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LPTH垄断锗替代材料黑钻石，受益于中国出口管制，具早期Alpha机会。
$LPTH 确实令人惊叹。他们垄断了一种关键原材料的替代方案，而中国刚刚对该材料实施了出口管制。 中国生产全球约 60-70% 的锗(Germanium)，并实施了出口管制。而 Lightpath 恰好拥有唯一的替代方案（类似于 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)技术）。 他们拥有名为黑钻石(Black Diamond)的专有材料（硫系玻璃(Chalcogenide glass)），并独家获得了美国海军研究实验室(U.S. Naval Research Laboratory)的授权。 黑钻石的性能堪比锗，但完全不含锗。 雷神(Raytheon)、洛克希德·马丁(Lockheed)和 L3Harris 可能会将其导弹/无人机项目从中国的供应链转向 LightPath 的黑钻石。在 6 亿美元市值下，这是极早期的 Alpha 机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LPTH is genuinely incredible. They own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off. China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium + just export controlled. And Lightpath happens to have the only workaround (similar to InP with $AXTI). They own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium. Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris will likely switch from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs. This is incredibly early alpha at a $600m MC.
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POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待，建议6个月后建仓POET。
我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是，输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年，即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质，也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中，所以 $POET 提前了6个月，$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年，但如果你等得够久，方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET，$ALMU 则更晚一些，但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重，它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的，只是由于处于周期极早期，这是一场等待游戏。
原推 ↗英文原文
My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle
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博主分享近期选股大幅上涨，并征集5倍股研究标的。
一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张，我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的，如果你有想法或投资论点，请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
原推 ↗英文原文
January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
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指出AXTI股价日内波动剧烈，预测明日价格区间。
@SharesGem $AXTI 每天的波动幅度简直达到 50%。明天股价可能是 35 美元，也可能是 12.5 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SharesGem $AXTI literally swings 50% every day. Could be $35 tomorrow or $12.5
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作者主张AXTI因磷化铟瓶颈及短期供应短缺而具投资价值。
@_stockResearch 谢谢，我想把关于 $AXTI 的论点归功于我，因为我是最早公开发布该论点的人之一。这仅仅是机构对非常保守的目标价(PT)的认可，但我主要的论点围绕的是磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及将在2-3个月内发生的巨大供应短缺。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_stockResearch Thanks, I'd like to take credit as one of the first ones to publicly post the thesis around $AXTI. This is just institutional validation regarding very conservative PTs, but my main thesis is around the InP bottleneck and massive supply shortage that happens in 2-3 months.
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博主确认其关于AXTI因磷化铟瓶颈导致供应短缺的核心论点。
@_stockResearch 谢谢，我想把作为最早公开发布关于 $AXTI 投资论点的人之一这一功劳归于自己。这仅仅是初步验证，但我核心的论点围绕的是磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及将在2-3个月内发生的巨大供应短缺。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_stockResearch Thanks, I'd like to take credit as one of the first ones to publicly post the thesis around $AXTI. This is just validation at start, but my main thesis is around the InP bottleneck and massive supply shortage that happens in 2-3 months.
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Alpha源于发现市场盲区，等待机构验证即已错过最佳时机。
没错，和 $VLN 一样。最大的利润来自于发现别人未发现的机会。 我觉得大家都在抱怨“为什么在它涨400%之前你不告诉我”，就像 $MU 那样在顶部蜂拥而入。 然后当我在早期发布像 $AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 或 $VLN 这类内容，而它们下周就上涨50%+时，他们又抱怨。 散户认为 $AXTI 是某种随机的“拉高出货(pump and dump)”股票，但在其上涨100%+后，现在有了机构验证。 再说一次，超额收益(alpha)来自于发现大多数市场忽略的东西。等到机构告诉你买入时，你就已经错过了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, same as $VLN. The most money to be made is when you discover things others don't. I feel like everyone complains about "Why didn't you tell me about this stock before it went up 400%" as people pile on at the top like $MU. Then complain when I post about stuff like $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS, or $VLN at the start and they go up 50%+ the next week. Retail thinks $AXTI is some random pump and dump stock, but now you have institutional validation after a 100%+ move. Again, alpha is when you discover things majority of markets miss. You miss out by the time you wait for institutions to tell you to buy.
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Craig-Hallum上调AXTI评级至买入，看好其InP垄断地位带来的重估潜力。
最新消息：Craig-Hallum 将 $AXTI 评级上调至“买入”，目标价 $26，涨幅 160%。 他们指出 AXT 受益于“三重动态”，即： - 限制竞争对手（住友、JX） - 同时在 Northland 融资后增加产能。 被《华尔街日报》评为第一的半导体分析师 Shannon 预计 AXT 2028 年每股收益为 $0.75，假设 AXT 是“正常”成长股，给予 30 倍估值。 关键国防/AI 供应链（如 Heico 或专业芯片公司）通常交易在 50-60 倍，这将使 $AXTI 目标价达到 $37.50（作为成长股）。 然而，如果“供应冲击”论点成立且 $AXT 成为战略垄断者，其估值逻辑将像 $MU 或 Sandisk 一样彻底重构，我们可能会看到大幅重估。 这是一种“阶梯式”估值，分析师通常会逐步上调目标价。如果 $AXTI 下周涨至 $28，他可能会发布新报告将其上调至 $32。 机构正在验证这一论点，但在价格和 X 上的 alpha 上均落后。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Craig-Hallum re-rates $AXTI to "Buy" with a $26 price target, a 160% increase. They stated AXT benefits from a "trifecta of dynamics" that put: - constraints on competitors (Sumitomo, JX) - while increasing capacity after Northland's Capital raise. Shannon, ranked as the #1 Semiconductor Analyst on WSJ, pegs AXT at $0.75 EPS by 2028, applying a 30x multiple by assuming AXT is a "normal" growth company. Critical defense/AI supply chains (like Heico or specialized chip firms) can easily trade at 50x-60x, which would set $AXTI at a $37.50 PT (for a growth company). However, if the "Supply Shock" thesis holds and $AXT becomes a strategic monopoly, the math completely breaks like $MU or Sandisk, and we might see a massive re-rating upward. This is a "Step-Ladder" valuation, analysts typically walk the target up. If $AXTI goes to $28 next week, he will likely issue a new note raising it to $32. Institutions are validating the thesis, but are trailing both the price and alpha on X.
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AXTI因日中出口管制获中长期优势，IQE虽获订单但衬底仍依赖AXTI。
$AXTI 是中国对日出口管制这把双刃剑的主要受益者：短期收入受挫，但中长期掌控了供应链。正如你所说，日本供应链的潜在冲击让 IQE 绝处逢生，这家较小的厂商成为少数“安全”的西方外延代工厂之一。由于超大规模云服务商争相确保非中国产能，其财报中提到的需求可能创下纪录。然而，有趣的是，他们仍从 $AXTI 购买磷化铟(InP)衬底以在其上生长晶体（AXT 将 IQE 列为 InP 衬底的主要海外客户之一），因此瓶颈并未真正改变。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is the main beneficiary of China's export controls on Japan as a double edged sword from short term revenue hit but medium-longer term control over supply chains. As you mentioned the likely Japanese supply chain shock threw IQE a lifeline, since the smaller player became one of the only "safe" Western epi-foundry. And they likely got record demand as mentioned from their earnings because hyperscalers are fighting to secure any non-Chinese capacity. However, funny thing is they still buy the InP substrates from $AXTI to grow the crystals on top (AXT listes IQE as one of the main overseas customers for InP substrates), so bottleneck doesn't exactly change.
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澄清身份混淆，重申对AXTI的看好。
@Skypioneer11 我觉得你把我和 @zephyr_z9 搞混了，我一直都很看好 $AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Skypioneer11 I think you're confusing me with @zephyr_z9, I've always liked $AXTI
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中国出口限制加剧InP供应瓶颈，利好AXTI垄断地位。
市场正在实时见证磷化铟(InP)的供应冲击。 本周时间线如下： Fastmarket Research, 2025： 美国$AXTI和日本住友控制着近80%的InP市场。 中国商务部 - 2026年1月6日：中国宣布对日本新增“两用”物品出口限制。 日本经济新闻(Jiji) - 2026年1月9日： 中国供应商开始通知日本客户：“我们不再向日本出口稀土金属（日本定义的包含镓、铟、锗等31种矿物的组别）。” 刘军红 CGTN - 2026年1月10日： “在战略材料方面……日本对中国的依赖度相对较高。” 上海有色网(SMM) - 2026年1月12日： 7N铟在SMM创下历史新高，达到812.45 ~ 901.04美元/公斤。 评论： $AXTI本周因面临财报前的出口管制问题而股价下跌。 然而，这被广泛误解，因为这对AXT来说是一把双刃剑，最终有利于AXT。 近期的出口问题从短期收入损失（无法向日本出口）的角度，巩固了AXT在中期内对InP衬底市场的控制力。 出口管制禁令伤害了其主要的日本竞争对手，住友和JX受影响最大，因为它们可能面临原材料短缺的上限。 如果住友在几个月内耗尽原料，西方AI客户（英伟达、博通、Lumentum等）除了从AXTI购买外别无选择，无论价格如何或许可证延迟多久。 随着公司争相建立长期库存，我们已经看到原料价格实时飙升。 AXTI可能成为大规模InP晶圆的主要来源，市场正在实时关注这一瓶颈的展开。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are witnessing a supply shock happen real time with InP. Here's the timeline this week: Fastmarket Research, 2025: US-based $AXTI and Japan's Sumitomo control nearly 80% of the InP market. China Commerce Ministry - Jan 6 2026: China announces new export restrictions on "dual-use" items to Japan. Jiji via Nippon - Jan 9, 2026: Chinese suppliers have started informing Japanese clients: "We can no longer export Rare Metals (Japanese group of 31 minerals like Gallium, Indium, Germanium) to Japan." Liu Junhong CGTN - Jan 10th, 2026: "When it comes to strategic materials... Japan's dependence on China is relatively high" SMM - Jan 12th, 2026: 7N Indium hits record high on SMM at 812.45 ~ 901.04 USD/KG. Commentary: $AXTI recently dropped on facing export control issues on pre-earnings this week. However, this is widely misinterpreted, since this a double edged sword that benefits AXT. Recent export issues cements AXT's control over the InP substrate market in the medium term from short-term revenue loss (from the inability to export to Japan). Export control bans hurt their main Japanese competitors in Sumitomo and JX are impacted the most, as they may face a ceiling in from material shortages. If Sumitomo runs out of feedstock in a few months, Western AI customers (Nvidia, Broadcom, Lumentum, etc.) will have zero alternative but to buy from AXTI, regardless of the price or permit delays. We're already seeing feedstock prices explode real-time as companies scramble for long term inventory. AXTI may become the main source for InP wafers at scale and markets are watching this bottleneck unfold real-time.
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列举CRDO、VLN及AXTI因非基本面因素暴跌，指出市场虽蠢但终会修正。
市场有时极其愚蠢。$CRDO 因线缆颜色变化引发的波动就是完美例证。就在过去两周，$VLN 也因股票代码冲突（ticker collision）导致股价与现金/市值几乎 1:1 挂钩；而 $AXTI 则因 2026 年误报为 2024 年的合同收益延迟披露而暴跌 40%。市场最终会自我修正。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are extremely dumb sometimes. $CRDO cable color changes was the perfect example. Just this past two weeks there was also $VLN trading close to 1:1 with cash / MC because of ticker collision and $AXTI selling off 40% because of delayed 2024 contracted earnings when it's 2026. Markets correct themselves eventually.
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推测AI供应链将现极端瓶颈，看好AXTI的垄断地位并买入。
是的，观点类似。我不知道接下来会发生什么，我只是推测未来几个月会出现极端的瓶颈。我指出大多数分析师不知道如何正确建模像 $AXTI 这样的极端边缘情况，因为这在历史上从未发生过。当这家小公司瓶颈化了全球所有最大科技公司价值15万亿美元以上的AI建设时，很难通过传统的市销率(P/S)、市盈率(P/E)等来评估这家有效垄断企业10亿美元的估值。我只是预期会出现高带宽内存(HBM)那样的情景，并通过最纯粹的方式买入 $AXTI 以押注瓶颈，至于结果如何我毫无头绪。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, similar take. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just speculating that there's an extreme bottleneck over the next few months. And I'm pointing out that most analysts do not know how to model extreme edge cases like $AXTI correctly because this has not happened before in history. It's really hard to value a $1B effective monopoly through traditional P/S, P/E, etc. when that tiny company bottlenecks the $15T+ AI buildout from all your biggest tech companies in the world. I'm just expecting an HBM scenario and buying into the bottleneck through the purest exposure way possible in $AXTI, no clue how this turns out.
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AXTI垄断InP衬底，出口管制下可通过提价而非扩产实现价值重估。
出口管制是最大的风险。但他们日本供应链中的两大竞争对手刚刚被禁止出口。因此，现在 $AXTI 以及通过一步跳板的中国，控制了磷化铟(InP)衬底和材料的流向。我认为许多分析师在建模时忽略的一点是，这并非关于扩大产量或数量，而是基于供应有限的关键资源进行定价。这就是博弈论在资源分配中的应用，类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的情况，但不同的是主要只有一个玩家。磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，$GOOGL 愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其 Ironwood 项目不会停滞。其他超大规模云服务商也是如此。当各方开始争夺配额时，TAM 将从数亿美元跃升至数十亿甚至 100 亿美元以上。而 $AXTI 在两个不同瓶颈环节占据垄断地位，市值却仅为 12 亿美元左右。例如，价格增加 3000% 在专用集成电路(ASIC)集群的物料清单(BOM)价值中仅占百分之几。在出口管制下，你不需要生产多 3000% 的材料，只需提高价格即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
Export controls is the biggest risk. But their two biggest competitors over in the Japanese supply chain just got export control banned. So now $AXTI and by one hop, China, controls the flow of InP substrates and materials. I think what a lot of analysts miss when modelling this is that it's not about scaling up production or quantity, it's about pricing based on a critical resource with finite supply. This is where game theory comes into play about resource allocation like what's going on with HBM, but instead of multiple players you mainly have one. The TAM of InP earlier few hundred million because it was a niche telecom product. Now, $GOOGL would happily pay billions just so their ironwood program doesn't stall out. Same with every other hyperscaler. Then TAM goes from few hundred million to few billions or $10B+ when they start fighting for allocations. And MC is still only $1.2Bish for a monopolistic position in two different bottlenecks. A 3000%+ increase for example in price would only be a few percent BOM value in an asic cluster. You don't need to produce 3000% more material with export controls, just increase the prices.
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日本InP出口管制或致光模块产能瓶颈，作者减持相关风险敞口。
我们正目睹市场的第三阶效应，$LITE、$AAOI 及光子学板块遭遇血洗，跌幅超 10%。 原因多重，包括 SanDisk 下跌 10%+ 引发的板块拖累及其他抛售。 但我的细微观点是：由于日本出口管制，整个日本供应链的磷化铟(InP)库存/产能可能耗尽，而这正是西方大规模光模块建设所必需的。 我不会将 $COHR 与其他光子学玩家混为一谈，但他们已面临产能紧张，且受住友、JX 影响，情况可能恶化。 这将导致 $LITE 等缺乏 InP 来为 $GOOGL TPU Ironwood 等生产光模块的公司产能受限。 然而，若出现以下情况，这种影响将被抵消，我们可能看到持续反弹： -> 下游如高带宽内存(HBM)的定价溢价抵消产品短缺。 -> 日本以某种方式解除 InP 出口禁令（不太可能）。 -> 若 $AXTI 在获得 1 亿美元融资翻倍产能后，能向西方供应商大规模交付衬底，事情将顺利进行。 总之，我想从供应链角度提供另一种视角，因为鲜有人评论这一点。 鉴于本周看到的出口管制风险及 $AXTI 的新垄断瓶颈，我个人已移除部分光模块敞口风险。但我不是空头，不会利用这一点。 我对整体板块极度看好，但对光子学玩家（是风险厌恶抛售延续还是反弹）的走势毫无头绪。
原推 ↗英文原文
We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out of InP inventory/capacity from Japanese export controls, required for the western optical buildout at scale. I wouldn’t quite lump $COHR in with the other photonics players but while they’re already capacity strained, it’s likely going to get worse with Sumitomo, JX affected. This would capacity strain $LITE and others who would lack the inp to produce opticals for $GOOGL TPU Ironwood and others. However this would be offset and we might see a continued rally if -> pricing premium downstream like HBM would offset any product supply shortage. -> Japan manages to remove the export control InP ban in some way (unlikely) -> if $AXTI delivers the substrates at scale to western suppliers (after their $100m funding to double capacity), things will proceed. That being said just wanted to offer another perspective on the drop since I haven’t really seen anyone comment on this from the supply chain angle. I personally removed some optical exposure risk after seeing the supply chain vulnerability this week from export controls and the new monopolistic bottleneck by $AXTI. But I’m not a short seller so I wouldn’t take advantage of it. I’m extremely bullish on the overall segment, but no clue what’s going to happen (whether risk-off selloff continues or rebound) for photonics players.
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回顾组合收益来源，反思仓位大小及交易策略。
谢谢！$OSS 和 $AXTI 是我投资组合中较小的部分。事后看来，我本应建立更大的头寸规模。我大部分的收益来自于利用投资组合保证金(portfolio margin)买入那些从去年高点下跌 50-70% 并在 1 月效应(Jan effect)中反弹的股票，如 $GLXY，以及像 $SOFI 或 $ASTS 这样仅下跌 10%+ 的交易性机会。除了可能 $CRDO 之外，我通常不发布我的做空(short trades)交易，而它从两天前已经上涨了超过 7%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! $OSS and $AXTI are smaller parts of my portfolio. I should have taken larger position sizes though in hindsight. Most of my gains came from portfolio margin into stocks that dropped 50-70% from last year into Jan effect like $GLXY, then just 10%+ trading drops like $SOFI or $ASTS. I don’t really post my short trades though aside from maybe $CRDO, which is up over 7% from two days ago
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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AXTI通过掌控InP供应链实现定价权，涨价对TPU成本影响有限。
^ 澄清一下，$AXTI 掌控定价权。关于数量，指的是掌控磷化铟(InP)供应链的大部分份额。 他们拥有一定量的库存，这显然受中国许可证管制。 重点是，即使产能翻倍或翻三倍，如果你同时掌控供应链，就能掌控定价。你可以用有限的材料将价格提高100%+、500%、2000%，超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)仍会买单，因为没有替代品。 即便涨幅如此之大，由于此前价格占比极低，对TPU集群物料清单(BOM)的影响也仅增加几个百分点。
原推 ↗英文原文
^ clarification, $AXTI controls the price. Regarding quantity, that was referring to controlling majority of the InP supply chain. They have a certain amount of inventory, which obviously is controlled by China for permits. Point was that can double, triple, capacity, but if you control both the supply chain, you can control pricing. You can have finite material and increase prices 100%+, 500%, 2000%, and hyperscalers would still pay because there's no alternative. Even that much increase would only be a few percent increase on TPU cluster BOM because the price was so negligible before.
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AXTI因垄断磷化铟供应链，在AI基建中具极高价值，远超当前市值。
对于Q X P，$AXTI 在中国对日本实施出口管制后，在光子学(Photonics)领域的AI基础设施建设中，既控制了数量（受监管的垄断）也控制了价格（规模垄断）。 双头垄断(Duopoly)的消亡彻底改变了原有的定价结构。 磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，谷歌(Google)愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其整个TPU项目不会停滞。Meta、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)、英伟达(Nvidia)等也是如此。于是，TAM突然从数亿美元飙升至100亿美元以上。 再说一次，我不知道这会走向何方，因为不可能对从未发生过的极端情景（一家小盘公司控制着万亿美元AI基建的两个关键瓶颈）进行建模。 但当一家公司控制了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)扩展其项目所用材料的大部分供应链以及价格结构时，我认为其价值远高于13亿美元的市场资本化。
原推 ↗英文原文
For Q X P, $AXTI controls both quantity (regulated monopoly) as well as price (monopoly at scale) for the AI buildout with photonics after China's export control on Japan. The death of a duopoly completely changed any former pricing structure there was. The TAM of InP was few hundred million because it's a niche telecom product. Now, Google would happily pay billions just so their entire TPU program doesn't stall out. Same goes for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and others. Then TAM suddenly goes from few hundred million to $10B+. Again I don't know where this heads, it's impossible to model an extreme scenario that's never happened before (one small cap company controlling two different critical bottlenecks for the trillion AI buildout). But when the company controls majority of the supply chain as well as price structure of a material used for every hyperscaler to scale out their programs, I place a lot more value on it than $1.3B market cap.
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HBM 瓶颈导致传统建模失效，磷化铟成新瓶颈，$AXTI 因卡位 AI 建设具极高价值。
当出现像 $MU 或 SK 海力士的 HBM（高带宽内存）这样极不常规的瓶颈时，诸如 NTM（下一财年）这样的标准建模就会失效。目前 HBM 的需求极度缺乏弹性，买家不再询问价格，即使在价格飙升数百%后，他们仍在寻求配额分配。在这种情况下，基于 $NVDA 2025 年上半年 EML（边缘机器学习）的现有短缺，以及 $MSFT 等公司仅其项目就需要全球两位数的磷化铟(InP)产量（针对 2026 年下半年至 2027 年），$AXTI 很可能在接下来几个月成为下一个瓶颈。因此，当 $GOOGL 等超大规模云服务商为避免 TPU 项目停滞而迫切寻求配额时，原本数亿 TAM（总可寻址市场）可能迅速膨胀至数十亿甚至上百亿，这使得对瓶颈的建模变得不可能。这本质上是买入“比特分配”、原料控制和瓶颈环节。一家市值 13 亿美元的公司卡住了整个 AI 建设的脖子，在我看来很便宜。我不知道这会走向何方，但我预计会出现极大的价格挤压（我们在 SMM 上已看到迹象），这将增加 $AXTI 的底线利润。许可证波动一直是一个风险因素。但同样，任何延迟都会因为这是单点故障而卡住整个 AI 建设，前提是如果中国继续对日本实施出口管制。
原推 ↗英文原文
Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix. HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases. And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027. So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out. This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI. License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.
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质疑AXTI估值逻辑，指出AH股价波动源于低流动性。
如果市场试图将 $AXTI 2024年签约积压订单的收入确认时机计入当前结构性需求，我仍觉得有些好笑。但 $AH 的许多波动仅仅是因为流动性低（例如 $2 的买卖价差，仅100股的卖出就会导致价格下跌10%），让我们看看接下来几周会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm still chuckling if the market wants to price in $AXTI revenue recognition timing from 2024 contracted backlog over current structural demand. But a lot of the AH movement is just low liquidity (eg. $2 spread, one 100 share sale would drop the price 10%), but we'll see what happens in the upcoming weeks.
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AXTI因InP衬底垄断地位及全产业链优势受益，股价上涨逻辑多维。
$AXTI 从 Northland 获得 1 亿美元用于资本支出扩张，推迟的自由现金流（FCF）源自 2024 年或 2025 年初的 500 万美元合同收入，这并无实质性影响。 股价上涨是多方面的： -> 认识到磷化铟(InP)衬底将成为光子学领域 AI 行业部署的瓶颈 -> 认识到 InP 衬底生产是双寡头垄断（住友、$AXTI），还有 JX 等较小玩家 -> 认识到 InP 原料是 InP 衬底生产商（$AXTI、Vital）的另一个瓶颈，还有 $DOWA 等较小玩家 -> 来自 $COHR 等财报的供应短缺通知 -> 认识到西方超大规模云服务商在 12 月 24 日左右在伦敦金属交易所(SMM)价格之上支付溢价 -> 认识到两天前中国对日本实施出口管制后，AXT 实际上成为垄断者（这将限制其主要竞争对手的大规模衬底生产）。估计有 3-6 个月的库存。 7N 级产品价格已达历史新高，$AXTI 拥有从矿山到衬底生产的全产业链，因此西方超大规模云服务商与 SMM 之间的多次涨价和溢价分化将增加其底线利润。 我个人认为，在整个供应瓶颈出现之前，合同积压订单和推迟一个季度的合同收入（追溯至 2024 年或 2025 年初）并不构成实质性影响。但解读因人而异。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI secured $100m from Northland for capex expansion, deferred FCF from $5m of contracted revenue from 2024 or early 2025 does not make a material difference. Stock runup was multifaceted: -> Recognition that InP substrates would bottleneck the AI industry deployment with photonics -> Recognition that InP substrate production was a duopoly (Sumitomo, $AXTI), with some smaller players like JX ->Recognition that InP feedstock was another bottleneck for the InP substrate producers ( $AXTI, Vital) with some smaller players like $DOWA. -> Supply shortage notice from earnings reports like $COHR -> Recognition that Western hypescalers are paying markups on top of SMM prices ~Dec 24th -> Recognition that AXT effectively became a monopoly after China's export controls on Japan 2 days ago (which would limit substrate production at scale from AXT's major competitor). Est 3-6 months inventory. 7n prices have hit ATHs, $AXTI owns the mines all the way to substrate production so many price increases and bifurcation in premiums between western hyperscalers + SMM would increase their bottom line. I personally don't consider contracted backlog and 1 quarter deferred contracted revenue all the way back from 2024 or early 2025 to be material before the entire supply chokepoint started. But to each their own interpretation.
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AXTI因AI转向光子学及InP衬底需求而受益。
当然，我不是来试图说服你们的，我只是发布我自己关于 $AXTI 的投资论点。 我要指出的细微差别是，该公司受益于 AI 基础设施建设，此前该领域遭遇了铜互连瓶颈，现在正转向光子学以及新型互连和 ASIC 架构。 直到 2025 年后期，超大规模云服务商才真正开始确保外调制激光器(EML)的产能。 磷化铟(InP)衬底是光子学 AI 基础设施建设所需的关键材料，而此前的铜代或旧架构并不需要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, I’m not here to convince you I’m just posting my own thesis about $AXTI. The nuance I’ll point out is that this is levered to the AI buildout that hit the copper wall and is shifting to photonics with newer interconnects and ASIC architectures. Only later on in 2025 did hyperscalers really start securing EML capacity. InP substrates is a critical material required for the AI buildout with photonics, not previous copper generations or former architectures.
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AXTI股价波动属旧账延期，核心应关注衬底瓶颈与InP涨价。
$AXTI 简而言之：人们正对一年前签约收入因延期一个季度而过度反应。此处并未报告前瞻性收入指引。相比于2024年的签约收入，我更关注实时的衬底(Substrate)瓶颈以及磷化铟(InP)价格的上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI TLDR: people are overreacting to contracted revenue from over a year ago being deferred by a quarter. There was no forward revenue guidance reported here. I care more about the real-time substrate bottleneck and increasing InP prices than 2024 contracted revenue.
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AXTI基板瓶颈缓解，SMM价格改善，定价权增强。
@itsdsha 自发布关于当前基板(substrate)瓶颈的帖子以来，已经过去了整整13天。我观察到 $AXTI 的硅微机械(SMM)价格有所不同，且未来的定价能力增强，但人们可以自由卖出，如果他们对2024年合同产生的递延收入做出反应的话。 https://t.co/Sxuw0B3rez
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsdsha It’s been a solid 13 days since posting about the substrate bottleneck happening now. I’m seeing something different with SMM prices and increased future pricing power with $AXTI, but people are free to sell if they want to react to deferred revenue from contracts made in 2024. https://t.co/Sxuw0B3rez
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AXTI因短期合同被错杀，当前短缺期远期估算更关键。
@william_R2Rclub 是的，我笑得很开心，$AXTI 因为 2024-2025 年初的合同加上第一季度递延被抛售，而实际上当前的短缺/价格挤压期间，远期估算才是最重要的。此外，小盘股盘后流动性不足也会造成很大差异。
原推 ↗英文原文
@william_R2Rclub Yeah I was laughing a lot that $AXTI got sold off on 2024-early 2025 contracts + 1Q deferral when forward estimates matter the most during the actual shortage/price squeeze happening now. After hour lack of liquidity on a small cap makes quite a difference too
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材料出口管制致AXTI垄断，下游产能受阻，错杀带来机会
他们确实可以，这一瓶颈向下游传导，损害了 $COHR 到 $LITE 向 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡。特别是鉴于住友/JX 面临材料出口管制导致的短缺，$AXTI 将在几个季度后处于垄断地位。人们非理性地对 2024 年合同的前置收益和递延收入确认做出反应，而忽视了当前状况，在我看来这提供了一个绝佳的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
They can, and this bottleneck flows downstream and hurts $COHR to $LITE capacity ramp into $GOOGL to $MSFT. Especially given $AXTI will be monopoly status in a few quarter once Sumitomo/JX face shortages from material export controls. People illogically reacting to former earnings from 2024 contracts and deferred revenue recognition, while ignoring the situation now presents a great opportunity imo
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AXTI盘后大跌，博主认为不影响基于需求瓶颈的核心投资逻辑。
$AXTI 盘后大跌 29.54%，原因如下： - 下调 2025 年第四季度营收预期至 2300 万美元中值，此前为 2700 万-3000 万美元。 我的看法：这对瓶颈论点无关紧要，因为价格冲击刚刚发生在 12 月 27 日左右至 1 月（现在）。这是过去的财报，我们关注的是拥有定价权从而带来高毛利的未来盈利预测。 - AXTI 收到出口管制延迟通知，预计将在 2026 年第一季度确认收入。 这只是确认了上一季度的积压订单。这不是收入损失。出口管制带来的延迟和风险是已知的。 简而言之：过去的财报对论点无关紧要，这些只是已知的延迟，收入将在下一季度确认。 更应关注从 12 月 27 日左右开始的需求挤压拐点，而非磷化铟(InP)热潮之前的积压营收。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on: - Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m. Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power. - AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026. This just realizes the former backlog Q1. This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks. TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter. Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.
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POET 非当前 InP 瓶颈解法，或是 2028 年降 InP 用量的工程方案。
$POET 对于 $AXTI 在 2026-2027 年因磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及当前专用集成电路(ASIC)/图形处理器(GPU)架构而言，基本不存在。但它是 2028 年以后降低 InP 用量的一种工程变通方案（尽管仍需使用 InP）。例如，富士康 H2 订单良率低、缺乏超大规模数据中心供应商认证，且未纳入 TPU Ironwood 等当前架构设计，目前一切均依赖 InP。但 2028 年推出的未来设计可能会采用它。
原推 ↗英文原文
$POET is basically nonexistent for the $AXTI 1-2 year InP bottleneck for 2026-2027 and current asic/GPU architectures but it’s one of the engineering workarounds to lower InP usage 2028 onward (still requires InP though) Eg. Foxconn h2 orders, low yield, lack of hyperscaler qualification, and not in current architecture designs like TPU ironwood, and everything is currently dependent on InP. But future designs might use it going out in 2028
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机构正涌入$AXTI，看好其InP垄断地位及产能爬坡带来的涨价预期。
这很可能全是机构资金在动，许多对冲基金正在意识到 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的垄断地位，并试图在北陆(Northland)获得1亿美元注资后入场交易。 这也是一个完全新颖的发展，正在实时上演，99%以上的人甚至还不知道这个瓶颈/公司（我的X粉丝群是个信息茧泡）。 真正的乐趣将在几个月后开始，届时InP价格将飙升得更高，因为产能爬坡才刚刚开始1个半星期。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is likely all institutional movement, and a lot of hedge funds realizing $AXTI's InP monopoly position + trying to enter the trade following Northland $100m funding. This is completely novel development too playing out real time, and 99%+ of people aren't even aware of this bottleneck/company yet (my follower group on X is a bubble) The real fun starts in a few months when InP prices shoot up even higher, since it only stated to ramp 1 1/2 weeks ago.
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磷化铟供应瓶颈加剧，AXTI成AI基建关键节点。
你正在实时目睹磷化铟(InP)“瓶颈”的演变，而超大规模云服务商正为争夺材料而忙乱。用于光子学的7N级铟(7-N Indium)在SMM上呈抛物线式暴涨，2026年屡创历史新高。这是由$AXTI控制的材料引发的实时“博弈论”场景。
原推 ↗英文原文
You're watching the InP "bottleneck" play out real time while hyperscalers scramble for material. 7-N Indium (required for photonics) is now parabolically exploding on SMM, reaching daily ATHs in 2026. This is a live "Game Theory" scenario for materials controlled by $AXTI. https://t.co/3YDMVfjGTx
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AXTI垄断磷化铟衬底，卡住AI光模块等关键供应链瓶颈。
仅供参考，砷化镓(GaAs)价格在金属导报(SMM)上正在飙升（且在美国市场的溢价更高）。 它是一种关键材料，用于： - 超大规模云服务商的光学设备（TPU集群等） - 光收发器（5G，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（Robotaxi，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子(SiPh)激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)以及英特尔/博通SiPh引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） $AXTI 的CEO表示他们控制了磷化铟(InP)供应链中40%的份额。并且在日本出口管制后，衬底供应链很可能由他们垄断。 所以一家公司卡住了上述所有环节的脖子。
原推 ↗英文原文
FYI 7n prices are exploding on SMM (and it trades at an even higher premium in US markets) It's a critical material used in: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) $AXTI's CEO said they control 40% of the InP majority of the supply chain. And the substrate supply chain would likely be monopolized by them after Japan export controls. So one company bottlenecks everything above.
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分析$AXTI在InP衬底供应链的垄断瓶颈地位及非对称投资机会。
磷化铟(InP)衬底的可寻址市场(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信大宗商品。 大多数分析师或卖方报告建模错误，因为其增长并非线性。 这是$AXTI在那些渴望获得配额的全球万亿美元级公司之间，对一种关键材料形成的博弈论式供应瓶颈。 你可以看到，一旦$AXTI和InP的供应短缺启动，其远期TAM和利润率将像高带宽内存(HBM)一样呈指数级增长。我之前做过这个评论，以下是总结： 1. 7N铟原料的价格在上海有色网(SMM)开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI出口至西方，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间的分化。 12月19日：亚洲金属网报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响InP衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模云服务商/西方供应链已经为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长激光二极管(EML)产能后，他们已产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模云服务商的部署因产能问题而放缓。 -> 他们将向上游确保材料（此前因是电信大宗商品而极便宜），然后这就像HBM一样变成博弈论式的配额战。但除了$AXTI，你基本上没有其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数的产能，但实际上根本不够。 3. 最关键的是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面的材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子AI升级中，你会如何评估单一公司的单点故障价值。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会随之崩溃。例如，CEO表示在出口管制前（以及他们筹集1亿美元增加产能前），他们占InP供应链的40%。 而这个巨大的整个AI供应链瓶颈仅估值13亿美元，而一些没有实质影响的随机量子公司却价值100多亿美元。 由于没人知道衬底或原料价格会去向何方，很难准确建模那些TAM突然从数亿变为用于每个AI部署的瓶颈和目标价(PT)。 对我来说，这只是买入拥有最纯粹非对称性博弈的瓶颈（现在恰好是垄断）。
原推 ↗英文原文
TAM for InP substrates was few hundred million previously since it was a niche telecom commodity. Most analysts or charters model this wrong since it's not linear. It's a game theory supply bottleneck of a critical material that $AXTI controls between all the world's trillion dollar companies that are desperate for allocation. You can see both forward TAM and margins increase exponentially like HBM once supply shortage kicks in for $AXTI and InP. I made this comment earlier but this is a summary: 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's impossible to accurately model bottlenecks and PTs where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes. For me it's just buying into the bottleneck with the purest asymmetry play there is (which happens to be a monopoly now).
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AXTI成AI供应链关键瓶颈，预计3-6个月产能告急。
这可能是历史上首次，全球所有万亿美元市值的超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)都被 $AXTI 这样一家小公司卡住脖子。而在日本对华出口管制禁令后，该公司将在该瓶颈环节占据垄断地位。我不知道市场将如何评估这一瓶颈，我只是单纯指出这一点。你应该自己做研究！不过，我估计在3-6个月内，AI供应链将进入临界状态，当时住友/JX的库存开始耗尽，且超大规模云服务商开始扩产并意识到由于磷化铟(InP)的次级效应，光子组件(photonic components)已无更多产能。仅 $MSFT 一家就预计将在2026年Q4及2027年 Maia 扩产期间占据整个 InP 供应链产出的两位数份额，而他们甚至尚未开始扩产。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is probably the first time in history all the world's trillion dollar hyperscalers are bottlenecked by such a tiny company in $AXTI. And that company would have a monopoly position in that bottleneck post-export China control ban on Japan. I don't know how markets will evaluate this bottleneck, I'm just simply pointing it out. You should do your own research! However, I would estimate that AI supply chains hit a critical state in 3-6 months time when Sumitomo/JX start running out of inventory and when hyperscalers start to ramp up + realize there's no more capacity for photonic components (by second order effect bc of inp). $MSFT alone was projected to take up double digits of the entire InP supply chain output from Maia ramp in Q4 2026, 2027, and they haven't even started to ramp up yet.
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AXTI垄断InP瓶颈，全球科技巨头受其制约
全球领先的科技巨头因一家小公司而陷入瓶颈，这恐怕是史无前例的。更关键的是，该公司目前在该瓶颈环节占据垄断地位。未来几个月 $AXTI 的走向，以及市场如何评估这一磷化铟(InP)瓶颈，将非常值得关注。
原推 ↗英文原文
世界をリードするテック企業すべてが、これほど小さな一企業によってボトルネック状態に陥るというのは、恐らく史上初めてのことだろう。しかも、その企業は現在、そのボトルネックにおいて独占的な地位を築いている。 今後数ヶ月で $AXTI がどのような結末を迎えるのか、そして市場がこの InP（インジウムリン）のボトルネックをどう評価するのか、非常に興味深い
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AXTI垄断InP成AI基建单点故障，市场开始关注。
$AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域实际上处于垄断地位，且在中国对日本实施出口管制禁令后，成为以下 AI 基础设施建设中唯一的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)环节： - 英伟达 Nvidia ($4.6T) - 微软 Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - 亚马逊 Amazon ($2.57T) - 谷歌 Google ($3.89T) 看来市场开始意识到这一点了。https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a monopoly for InP, and the single point of failure for the AI buildout for: - Nvidia ($4.6T) - Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - Amazon ($2.57T) - Google ($3.89T) after China's export control ban on Japan. Looks like markets are starting to find out. https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
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解析中国对日InP禁令细节及美日在关键材料谈判中的不同处境。
这很微妙，但我尽力解释： 1) 这实际上是禁令，不仅仅是出口管制。这涉及任何与军事最终用户或军事用途相关的内容。对于住友电气(Sumitomo Electric)等主要国防承包商来说，这实际上就是禁令。 还有“次级抵制”规则，直接影响住友/JX： 例如，如果另一家公司购买磷化铟(InP)原料，然后试图将原料/成品收发器转让给日本公司，中国可能会禁止相关公司。 这部分非常微妙。如果你想知道为什么美国在这些出口管制下没事，是因为美国允许英伟达(Nvidia)向中国出售H200芯片，作为交换，中国“解锁”了铟和镓等原材料对美国商业科技公司的供应。这是第72号公告，暂停了对美国民用客户“镓、锗和铟”最严格的“原则性禁令”，直到2026年11月27日。但隐含地，微软(MSFT)、Lite等被视为更偏向商业性质（即使它们不是，MSFT确实服务于美国政府），因为这是为了允许中国训练其AI模型而进行的交换。不幸的是，日本没有像美国这样的筹码。 2) 在2026年公告之前，磷化铟(InP)已被列入中国官方的两用物项出口管制清单。金属报告和公司披露确认，InP于2025年2月被置于出口许可证要求之下。 2026年1月关于日本的公告适用于中国两用物项出口管制清单上的所有物品（800-900项）。由于InP已在2025年最终确定为两用物项，因此自动包含在针对日本的新限制中。 $AXTI被允许向受出口管制和光学制造商限制的西方国家发货，但不允许向日本发货。（西方超大规模云服务商本来就是主要目标） 住友将无法获得能够大规模生产成品所需的材料，因为中国控制了全球InP衬底生产所需的大部分关键材料。 所以情况并不完全相同。
原推 ↗英文原文
So this is pretty nuanced but i'll try my best to explain: 1) It's actually a ban. Not just export controls. This refers to anything related to military end-users or for military purposes. For major defense contractors like, Sumitomo Electric, this is effectively a ban. There was also the Secondary Boycott rule, which directly impacts Sumitomo/JX: Eg. if another company buys InP feedstock then tries to transfer the feedstock/finish transceiver to a Japanese company, China could ban the related companies next. This part is really nuanced. So if you're wondering why US is fine under these export controls, US allowed Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China and in exchange, China "unlocked" the supply of raw materials like indium and gallium for U.S. commercial tech companies. This was Announcement No. 72, which suspended the strictest "principle bans" on "gallium, germanium, and indium" for U.S. civilian customers until nov 27, 2026. But implicitly, Microsoft, Lite, and others are treated more as commercial (even they're not, MSFT does serve the US gov), since this was an exchange to allow China train its AI models the critical materials. Unfortunately, Japan has no leverage like the US on this. 2) InP was already added to China's official dual use export control list prior to the 2026 announcement. Metal reports and company disclosures confirmed that InP were placed under export licensing requirements in February 2025. The Jan 2026 announcement regarding Japan applies to all items on China's dual use export control list (800-900 items). Since InP was already finalized as a dual-use item in 2025, it is automatically included in the new restrictions targeting Japan. $AXTI is allowed to ship to Western countries from export controls and optical makers but not to Japan. (Western hyperscalers are main target anyway) Sumitomo would not have the materials able to make the finished products to ship at scale since China controls majority of the world's critical materials required for inp substrate prod. So it's not quite the same position.
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澄清非卖课，对比OSS国防订单与AXTIAI瓶颈逻辑。
我不想要订阅者，也不想向粉丝出售任何东西！ 建立这个主页纯粹是出于兴趣，测试我自己的投资论点(Thesis)与市场表现，并在帮助他人中获得满足感。 但回答你的问题，$OSS 和 $AXTI 是截然不同的股票。 有1.5万亿美元的美国政府国防支出，这对 $OSS 帮助巨大。考虑到他们订单已经积压，很难想象还有更大的利好。 而 $AXTI 是西方人工智能建设中的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)环节。 两者都非常有趣，所以我不认为其中一个比另一个更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't want subscribers or want to sell anything to followers! Made my profile out of pure interest testing my own thesis against the markets and getting fulfillment in helping others too. But to answer your question $OSS and $AXTI are way too different stocks. There's $1.5T US Gov spending into defense which helps $OSS a LOT. Hard to imagine when they're already backlogged. Then $AXTI is single point of failure for the Western AI buildout. Both are incredibly interesting, so I wouldn't say one is better than the other.
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AXTI若禁运将阻碍AI基建，超大规模云服务商短期仍依赖其供应。
@NEgleston @jaysyoon 如果 $AXTI 无法向美国出口，那么关于人工智能基础设施建设（AI buildout）就有更严重的问题需要担忧。这对美国是一个巨大的威胁，这就是为什么超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）正在设计绕过该限制的方案（这需要3年时间），在此期间他们仍然处于依赖状态。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NEgleston @jaysyoon If $AXTI is not able to export to US, then there are bigger problems to worry about regarding the AI buildout It's a huge threat to America which is why hyperscalers are engineering around it (which would take 3 years), in the meantime they're dependent https://t.co/Vpq5KQdm13
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AXTI因光子学垄断地位及出口管制影响，估值远低于同行，增长空间巨大。
恕我直言，$AXTI 才刚刚起步。这仅仅是日本供应链遭受出口管制重击后，产能爬坡的开始。 这是西方部署光子学 AI 的单点故障环节，且处于垄断地位，相关市场价值为 13 亿美元。 你看那些随机的量子计算和能源公司估值都超过 100 亿美元了。我认为它还有很大的增长空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is just getting started imo. This is only beginning the ramp up after the export control nuke on Japan's supply chains. This is single point of failure and a monopoly for Western's AI deployment using photonics valued at $1.3B. You have random quantum and energy companies are valued at $10B+. I think there's room to grow.
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铟价分化及日本出口管制使AXTI成AI光子学关键瓶颈，估值被低估。
这只是我个人的观点。自上次财报电话会议以来，许多情况已发生变化： 1. 7纳米铟(Indium)原料价格在SMM开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI向西方出口，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间出现分化。 12月19日：Asian Metal报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实截至周末，定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响磷化铟(InP)衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模数据中心/西方供应链已为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长(EML)产能后，他们面临产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模数据中心部署放缓，可能源于产能问题。 -> 他们将向上游锁定材料（此前作为电信大宗商品极其便宜），然后这变成类似高带宽内存(HBM)的博弈论分配战。但除了$AXTI，你几乎找不到其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数产能，但实际根本不够。 3. 最大变化是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子学AI扩张中，对单一公司故障点价值的评估。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会崩溃。例如，CEO称在出口管制（及其1亿美元融资扩产）之前，他们占InP供应链的40%。 这个整个AI供应链的巨大瓶颈市值仅为13亿美元，而一些无实质影响的量子公司市值却超100亿美元。 很难对瓶颈进行建模，因为数亿总可寻址市场(TAM)突然用于每个AI部署，且无人知晓衬底或原料价格去向。
原推 ↗英文原文
So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call, 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.
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作者澄清其推文旨在通过新颖分析测试论点，而非投资建议。
我的意思是，我关于 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的大部分帖子都是基于公开信息的新型信息综合。所以，如果市场发现 AXT 是人工智能供应链的单点故障，导致其股价上涨 100%，这是合乎情理的。或者在这种情况下，市场不知道 $OSS 在委内瑞拉的参与。除此之外，我只是发布我的思考过程或新颖分析，以测试我的论点与市场反应。这不是建议，也不推荐他人跟随。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean most of my posts from $AXTI and $AIRO are novel information synthesis based on public info. So makes sense if stuff like AXT goes up 100% once markets find out it’s the single point of failure for the AI supply chain. Or in this case markets didn’t know about $OSS involvement in Venezuela. That aside I’m just posting my own thought process or just novel analysis to test my thesis against the markets. Not advice or recommending others to follow along.
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感谢提及，关注AXTI和AIRO走势，期待OSS后续表现。
@pepemoonboy 感谢提及，你的期权卖出挑战目前进展顺利！最近观察 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 确实很有趣。很好奇 $OSS 接下来会如何表现。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Appreciate the shoutout and looking good so far on your option selling challenge! It’s definitely been fun watching $AXTI and $AIRO recently. Curious how $OSS does next.
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AXTI和AIRO短期暴涨，深入研究后对OSS持看多态度。
@B38B37 观察 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的走势真是令人捧腹，两者在一周左右的时间里都上涨了50%以上。 不过，在深入研究该公司，特别是委内瑞拉入侵事件及其受益者后，我对 $OSS 相当看好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 $AXTI and $AIRO have been hilarious to watch both are up 50%+ in a week or so. I’m pretty bullish on $OSS though after looking into company, esp. Venezuelan invasion and beneficiaries.
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对磷化铟衬底瓶颈持悲观态度，质疑光子学规模化前景。
@itsDanielWu 说得在理，我也看到整个行业都在向光子学(Photonics)转型，包括 $LITE 等公司。但在光子学产能爬坡方面，我有关于磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈的独立观点，因此我个人对实现规模化持更悲观的态度。
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsDanielWu That's fair, I see the entire industry moving to photonics as well with $LITE and others. But in regards to photonic ramp, I've had my own thesis on InP substrates bottlenecks, so I'm personally more bearish on getting this to scale https://t.co/d6eDk7K204
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质疑MRVL AEC竞争力，看好CRDO增长，预期光学瓶颈将延长铜缆寿命。
我的意思是，$MRVL 自 2022 年以来难道没有宣布过四次左右像 Alaska A 这样的 AEC（有源铜缆）杀手吗？我把它当作 $AMD 宣称每一代发布最终都要击败 $NVDA 来看待。 $CRDO 的财报和预测一直在以惊人的速度增长，尽管 Marvell 会是严肃的竞争对手（但如果 Marvell 起飞，两者仍有共存空间）。 我认为光学是最大威胁，但我一直预期 $AXTI 的光学组件会出现巨大的光学瓶颈，因此超大规模云厂商很可能被迫延长铜缆的使用寿命。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean hasn't $MRVL announced an AEC killer with Alaska A like 4+ different times now since 2022? I treat it like $AMD saying they'll finally beat $NVDA with each gen release. $CRDO's earnings + projections just keeps growing at insane rates, though Marvell would be a serious competitor (but room for both if Marvell takes off). I see optical as the biggest threat, but I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI, so hyperscalers will likely be forced into copper life extension.
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澄清AMZN谣言，分析AXTI光学瓶颈及铜缆长期需求。
很多人误读了“无缆化”的评论，尽管主要下跌是由关于$AMZN的“color change”（色彩变化）谣言引起的。 你精准指出了$CRDO的看空逻辑，但这我们一直都知道。我的持仓观点较为微妙，因为我看到$AXTI等公司正在对规模化扩展所需的光学组件形成瓶颈。（尤其是昨天住友电工的西方供应链因出口管制而遭受重创，这 largely 是光学建设所必需的） 我们可能会看到对铜缆及铜缆寿命延长的长期需求，尽管Credo确实拥有光DSP垂直领域业务。
原推 ↗英文原文
Tons of people misinterpreted the "cableless comment", though the main drop was the $AMZN color change misinformation. So you've nailed the bear case for $CRDO, but we've always known this. My position is nuanced since I see $AXTI and others bottle necking optical components required for scale out. (especially now that the Western supply chain in Sumitomo got export control nuked yesterday, largely required for optical buildout) We'll likely see long tail demand for copper and copper life extension, although Credo does have optical dsp verticals.
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澄清CES误导，认为$CRDO错杀，因内部线缆变更及光子学布局而加仓。
我在$CRDO下跌25.7%时加仓，利用了CES上的信息误导。 1. 最初的大幅下跌是因为投资者在$AMZN数据中心发现了橙色和蓝色线缆（暗示$CRDO失去客户）。 实际情况是亚马逊仅为内部物流要求更改颜色——由Mizuho的Vijay Rakesh证实。 2. CES 2026主题演讲——第二次下跌是因为黄仁勋提到Rubin NVL72机架的“无缆”设计。 “无缆”说法特指连接GPU与NVLink交换机的内部铜背板（盲插中板）。 $CRDO的主要产品是有源电缆(AEC)，用于机架外部连接服务器与网络交换机。Nvidia的“无缆”技术仅替换Credo未生产的内部部件。 黄仁勋确实提到了Spectrum-X以太网光子学，但$CRDO也在光子学领域运营，拥有“BlueBird”（光数字信号处理器）和“ZeroFlap”光模块。还有机架顶部连接，这是Credo的主营业务（也是未来2-3年能效最高的解决方案）。 正如我多次在$AXTI中指出的，人们对转向光子学存在更大担忧，但鉴于供应短缺，行业正走向混合模式（铜+光子学）。 总之，投资者只是不了解细微差别，并非故意散布虚假信息。 因此我个人加仓了$CRDO，因为其大部分市值因无关紧要且错误的消息被抹去。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation. 1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss). All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. 2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack. The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack. $CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make. Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y). There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage. Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation. So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news.
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AXTI因出口管制获垄断优势，虽今日大涨但真正波动或滞后，目前属早期入场。
考虑到今日的出口管制使 $AXTI 处于垄断地位，我认为今天超过+20%的涨幅本应更大！ 然而，真正的波动可能会像 $SNDK 或内存市场案例那样，在1-2个月后瓶颈出现时才会发生。 市值依然非常小，媒体也毫无报道。在座的各位仅仅是比市场更早入场罢了。
原推 ↗英文原文
本日の輸出規制により $AXTI が独占状態となったことを考えれば、今日の+20%を超える上昇はもっと大きくあるべきだったと考えていました！ しかし、本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。 時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません
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AXTI垄断InP衬底，若断供将阻碍AI基建扩产。
@gemm_fc 2026日历年风险极小。我在此处发表了一些评论。 如果 $AXTI 停止出口磷化铟(InP)衬底，人工智能(AI)基础设施建设将无法扩产。 一旦竞争对手库存耗尽，AXT 将实质上成为垄断者。 https://t.co/P8LVlt2RkK
原推 ↗英文原文
@gemm_fc Very little risk for 2026 calendar year. Made some comments here. If $AXTI stopped exporting InP substrates, the AI buildout would not be able to ramp. AXT would effectively become a monopoly once inventory runs out for competitors https://t.co/P8LVlt2RkK
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美国短期依赖AXTI等解决InP衬底瓶颈。
@jvthed210725 并非如此，美国最终会绕过磷化铟(InP)衬底的瓶颈。只是对于2026-2027年，在现有架构下，他们将高度依赖 $AXTI 以及 $LITE、$COHR 等公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jvthed210725 Not really, the US will engineer around the InP substrates bottleneck eventually. It’s just that for 2026-2027 with the current architectures, they’ll be heavily reliant on $AXTI and companies like $LITE, $COHR.
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AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
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中国出口管制致AXTI垄断InP衬底，成AI基建新瓶颈
英伟达CEO今日表示“内存瓶颈严重”。SK海力士($330B)、美光($MU, $355B)、三星($595B)。等着看当大家发现整个AI基础设施建设将被微小的$AXTI ($1B) 瓶颈化时，每个人的表情吧，尤其是在中国新的出口管制之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nvidia CEO said today that the “Memory Bottleneck is Severe” SK Hynix ($330B) $MU ($355B) Samsung ($595B). Wait and see the look on everyone’s face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny $AXTI ($1B) after the China’s new export controls. https://t.co/iw6Nhitsry
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AI供应链因依赖单一源AXTI面临瓶颈风险，日本厂商或被迫切换产能。
这对AI基础设施建设绝对不是什么好事，因为整个AI供应链（例如$LITE、$COHR -> $GOOGL、$NVDA等）在接下来的两年里突然变得依赖于单一来源$AXTI。 一旦日本供应耗尽，像$LITE这样的公司可能会将产能从住友（Sumitomo）、JX转向$AXTI作为主要供应商（鉴于其已融资1亿美元用于扩大产能）。 不幸的是，日本没有美国那样的谈判能力来推翻这一局面。我们将看看事态如何发展。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is definitely not a good thing for the AI buildout because the whole AI supply chain eg. $LITE, $COHR -> $GOOGL, $NVDA others suddenly became dependent on a single source $AXTI for the next two years. Companies like $LITE will probably shift capacity from Sumitomo, JX to $AXTI as the main supplier (given they raised $100M for more capacity) once supply in Japan runs out. Unfortunately Japan doesn't have the same negotiating power as the US to overturn this. We'll see how this develops.
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AXTI虽失日本市场，但成全球InP衬底主供。
这是一把双刃剑。$AXTI 可能无法再向日本出口，因此会失去那里的收入。然而，住友（Sumitomo）和其他衬底制造商将没有足够的材料来为全球其他地区生产足够的磷化铟(InP)衬底。因此，作为失去日本市场的代价，AXT 将成为全球主要供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a double edged sword. $AXTI likely cannot export to Japan anymore so it loses revenue there. However, Sumitomo and the other substrate makers would not have the materials to make enough InP substrates for the rest of the world. So AXT would be the main supplier globally for the tradeoff of losing the Japanese market.
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AXTI因中国出口管制成InP衬底垄断者，股价大涨14%。
如果你想知道为什么 $AXTI 涨了 14%，大概是中国看到了这条推文，并向其唯一的另一家竞争对手发射了出口管制“核弹”。AXT 刚刚成为了磷化铟(InP)衬底的垄断者。https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re wondering why $AXTI is up 14%, China probably read this and sent an export control nuke to its only other competitor. AXT just became the monopoly of the InP substrates. https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx
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AXTI对日营收受挫，博主将做后续分析
@AndDegen @illyquid @grok 情况很微妙，AXTI 对日本的销售收入也遭受重创。我会对此情况做后续分析。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AndDegen @illyquid @grok It’s nuanced, AXTI gets their revenue nuked to Japan as well. I’ll do a follow up analysis on the situation
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FinX社区5天收益超Citadel全年，2025年大幅跑赢机构。
“FinX 对决华尔街”报告 这是 FinX 15，由最受欢迎的标的组成的加权组合： 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% 以下是 FinX 上周的表现： FinX 15 回报率（1周）：11.3% 2025 全年表现： - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater 的 Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK 创新 ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY 指数 = +17.72% - Poinpoint 多策略 = +11.6% - 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% 结论： 仅在 5 个交易日内，FinX 社区就击败了 Citadel 的全年收益。 进入 2026 年，我们正式碾压了机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
"FinX vs Wall Street" report This is FinX 15, a weighted port of the most popular names: 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% Here's how FinX did last week: FinX 15 Return (1-Week): 11.3% For the entire 2025 calendar year: - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK Innovation ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY Index = +17.72% - Poinpoint Multi-Strategy = +11.6% - - Berkshire Hathaway = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% The Bottom Line: In just 5 trading days, the FinX community beat Citadel’s entire year. We are officially smoking the institutions entering 2026
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询问AXTI子公司是否获批上市
@zephyr_z9 等等，$AXTI 的子公司终于获得上市批准了？
原推 ↗英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Wait $AXTI subsidiary finally got approval for listing?
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博主以超大规模云服务商身份幽默调侃持有DPZ股票
@Colby17201470 除了与 $AXTI 相关的磷化铟(InP)衬底，作为一名超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)，我一直在订购多米诺披萨(Dominoes Pizza)的上游材料。我们应该会看到我的订单对 2025 年第四季度(Q4 2025)的业绩产生实质性影响，这也是为什么我对未来在 $DPZ 上的持仓充满信心 https://t.co/GXEIhjKE5v
原推 ↗英文原文
@Colby17201470 Parallel to InP substrates with $AXTI, I've been ordering the upstream materials for Dominoes Pizza since I myself am a hyperscaler. We should see my orders materially impact Q4 2025 results, which is why I'm confident in my future positions in $DPZ https://t.co/GXEIhjKE5v
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AXTI获资扩产且垂直整合优势可转嫁InP涨价压力。
对营收预测一无所知，但关于 $AXTI 有两点看法。 1. 他们现在有1亿美元用于产能扩张（直接增加营收），且销售应已触及上限。 2. 付费信息显示，中国供应商开始对西方公司提高磷化铟(InP)价格。AXT 作为垂直整合公司掌控供应链，因此任何涨价都只是其自身利润率的提升。 如果我们看到类似高带宽内存(HBM)式的基板价格冲击，这种效应将会放大。
原推 ↗英文原文
No clue about revenue estimates but two things about $AXTI. 1. They now have $100m to fund capacity expansion (direct revenue increase) and should be capped out on sales. 2. Paywalled info showed that Chinese vendors were starting InP price hikes for Western companies. AXT owns the supply chain as a vertically integrated company, so any hike would just be an increase on their own margins. This would scale up if we see a HBM type shock for substrate prices
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$AXTI掌控InP供应链瓶颈，预计2026年中现供应挤压，估值有望重估。
我个人估算，$AXTI 覆盖了全球磷化铟(InP)基板供应能力的约30%，以及磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)原料的约25-30%。关于 $AXTI CEO 声称“掌控40%供应链”的说法，鉴于他拥有更多内部信息，若计入未来增产计划，达到该水平是有可能的。另一方面，网站上标注的60%数据显得略微夸大。我计划持有至2026年中，届时预计会出现类似高带宽内存(HBM)的供应挤压(Supply Squeeze)。此外，Northland 1亿美元融资后的稀释风险较低，这也是我看好的一点。部分非公开付费数据显示，这些供应商正在提高对欧美客户的价格，我预计利润率也将上升。这是一个常被忽视的隐藏阿尔法(Alpha)因素，因为 $AXTI 拥有完整的成本结构，价格上涨将直接转化为显著的利润率改善。最大的风险因素是中国政府的许可审批，而这正是其掌握如此关键瓶颈却市值仍低于10亿美元的原因。如果供应链完全位于美国，我认为其估值达到1000亿美元也不足为奇。
原推 ↗英文原文
私は個人的に、世界のInP基板（Indium Phosphide substrate）供給能力の約30%、および**インジウム・リン（Indium Phosphide）原料については約25〜30%**をカバーしていると試算しています。 $AXTI CEOが「サプライチェーンの40%を握っている」と発言した点については、彼の方がより内部情報を持っているはずなので、今後の増産を織り込めばその水準に達する可能性はあると思います。一方で、ウェブサイトに記載されている60%という数字はやや過大に見えます。 私は2026年半ばまで保有する予定で、その頃にはHBMと同様の供給逼迫（サプライスクイーズ）が起きると見ています。また、Northlandによる1億ドルの資金調達後は希薄化リスクが低い点も評価しています。 さらに、一部の非公開・有料データでは、これらのベンダーが欧米向けに価格を引き上げていることが示されており、マージンも上昇すると予想しています。これは見過ごされがちな隠れたアルファ要因で、$AXTIはコスト構造全体を自社で保有しているため、価格上昇はそのまま大幅な利益率改善につながるからです。 最大のリスク要因は中国当局による許認可（パーミッティング）ですが、それこそがこれほど重要なボトルネックを握っていながら時価総額が10億ドル未満に抑えられている理由です。 もしサプライチェーンがすべて米国に存在していれば、評価額が100億ドル規模になっても不思議ではないと考えています。
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$AXTI 占据磷化铟供应链40%，是AI基建关键瓶颈但风险极高。
@beauty_oe 据 $AXTI 首席执行官称，该公司占据磷化铟(InP)供应链的40%。一家如此小规模的企业竟掌握着AI基础设施建设的“瓶颈(Chokepoint)”环节，这非常有趣。不过风险极高，绝非适合所有人的股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe $AXTI のCEOによると、同社はインジウムリン（InP）サプライチェーンの40%を占めているそうです。これほど小規模な企業が、AIインフラ構築の『チョークポイント（要衝）』を握っているというのは非常に興味深いですね。ただ、リスクも極めて高く、決して万人向けの銘柄ではありません。
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解析AXTI作为光子AI供应链底层材料商的关键地位。
如果 $GOOGL 想建造更多 TPU，就需要 $LITE 的光子共封装(OCS)。$LITE 需要 $AXTI 的衬底（据估占独立市场30%，CEO称占磷化铟(InP)供应链40%）。$AXTI 需要由 AXT 拥有的化学品和材料。 $AXTI 是整个光子学 AI 供应链的底层，因为他们拥有10多家生产高纯度化学品的材料公司。 基本上现在就像一个材料对冲基金，生产输出衬底，因此对关键的 InP 瓶颈拥有如此大的控制力和市场份额。
原推 ↗英文原文
If $GOOGL wants to build more TPUs, they need $LITE’s for OCS. $LITE needs $AXTI substrates (est. 30% of merchant market, CEO says 40% of InP supply chain). $AXTI needs the chemicals and materials from that happened to be owned by AXT. $AXTI is the bottom of the entire AI supply chain for photonics since they own 10+ materials companies that produce the high-purity chemicals. Basically a materials hedge fund at this point that produces the output substrate, hence why it's has so much control and market share over the critical inp bottleneck.
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中国暂停镓锗禁令为AXTI提供一年窗口，机构借机布局InP瓶颈红利。
散户可能不知道的是，中国宣布暂停对美实施镓(Gallium)和锗(Germanium)的全面出口禁令一年，有效期至2026年11月27日。 随着$AXTI进行1亿美元增发，机构可能将其解读为AXT在“休战”结束、中国重新实施出口限制前，利用磷化铟(InP)价格狂热的12个月窗口期。 由于AXT处于InP瓶颈的核心位置，一年不受阻碍的产能爬坡足以带来上行空间。Northland可能认为这是纳斯达克唯一的主要纯概念股，让投资者能直接暴露于这一材料瓶颈风险中。 简而言之：风险始终存在，但直到明年11月27日之前不太可能显现。当然，如果$AXTI无法出口，AI基础设施建设也会停滞，届时会有更多问题需要担忧。
原推 ↗英文原文
Something retail probably doesn't know is that China announced a 1Y suspension of its total export ban on gallium and germanium to the US, effective until Nov 27, 2026. With the $AXTI $100m offering, institutions probably interpreted this as a 12 month runway for AXT to capitalize on the InP price frenzy before the "truce" expires and China introduces export restrictions. Since AXT is at the center of the InP bottleneck, one year of unhindered ramp is enough of an upside. And Northland prob saw as is the only major pure-play listed on the NASDAQ that gives investors direct exposure to this material bottleneck. TLDR: The risk is always there, but not likely to be present until Nov 27th next year. Of course if $AXTI cannot export, the AI buildout stalls too and there's more issues to worry about.
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AXTI因InP衬底短缺及中美价差套利，受益于AI供应链瓶颈，具非对称上涨潜力。
磷化铟(InP)衬底短缺与“价差”套利 - $AXTI 市场研究显示，InP和光学组件正变得类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的短缺和价格狂热。 最初的瓶颈是由$NVDA垄断$COHR到$LITE的电吸收调制激光器(EML)产能造成的（TrendForce）。 以下是详细分析： 据报道，$NVDA已对EML激光芯片进行战略性产能预订，将这些特定组件的交货期推至2027年以后。 通过预订像$LITE和$COHR这样受InP限制的集成器件制造商(IDM)的成品产能，英伟达实际上消除了光学引擎的产能。 “二阶效应”：因此，许多超大规模云服务商（如$MSFT到$AMZN）可能推迟了其路线图/爬坡计划，并正在寻找产能。 光学制造商也在疯狂寻找替代来源。 由于主要IDM已被预订，超大规模云服务商正在向上游移动，直接锁定晶圆、衬底和原料产能，从而在材料层面放大需求。 上海金属市场上6N和7N级铟均处于历史高位；西方市场价格更高，代表了中国与西方市场之间的价格分化。 例如，6N级铟价格约为每公斤412.83-425.46美元。 6N级西方价格约为668.00美元（1月1日，来源：Indium Corporation，5-9公斤数量），溢价超过50%+。（与超大规模云服务商的直接现货谈判价格可能不同）。 7N级的溢价可能更高，衬底享有的溢价最高（无公开数据，但一些估计达到三位数溢价）。 然而，瓶颈现已向上游迁移至衬底本身（以及三阶效应，原料）以锁定产能。 $AXTI在InP瓶颈中或许扮演着最关键且独特的角色，即“InP供应链的40%”（$AXTI CEO ER语录）： 低成本：AXTI的工厂位于北京。他们采购材料（拥有10+家材料供应商）并自行精炼成成品衬底。 高售价：他们将成品InP衬底销往全球市场，那里的价格因短缺和西方铟价格而通胀。 套利：只要AXTI继续获得出口许可证，他们就能捕获中国低制造成本与全球高售价之间的巨大价差。 相比之下，西方公司很大程度上受到上游材料成本和西方溢价的影响。因此，$AXTI下个季度的利润率应会迅速扩张，加上Northland通过1亿美元股份出售注入的生产产能。 这源于12月下旬亚洲金属(Asian Metal)的报道，表明中国供应商明确“提高了对美出口报价”： 2025年12月19日：亚洲金属报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，确认到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这源于超大规模云服务商的产能垄断、交货期延长以及“AI”材料定价与商品基准的脱钩。 InP衬底“大幅涨价”的条件不仅存在，而且正在活跃。 在整个2026年，随着超大规模云服务商向上游锁定需求，InP衬底价格以及由此一步之遥的铟商品价格可能会迅速飙升。 从InP衬底+InP原料价格可能的抛物线式上涨中双向受益的公司将是$AXTI，在$16股价、约8.5亿美元市值下呈现非对称上行空间。然而，风险依然存在，因为他们严重依赖出口许可证和美中贸易关系。 TLDR，AXT： 1. 位于InP衬底和InP原料瓶颈的中心 2. 受益于分配战期间中国生产与美国超大规模云服务商溢价之间的利润率套利和衬底价格飙升。 3. 控制着西方超大规模云服务商AI建设所需衬底的主要全球现货产出份额。 超大规模云服务商看到英伟达垄断了EML产能，现在可能正在查看像$AXTI、住友或原料（Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA）这样的公司以确保其路线图。 AXT是8.5亿美元市值下最有趣的公司之一，因为它控制着超大规模云服务商AI建设的关键瓶颈，并捕获InP衬底价格飙升+利润率套利机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
The InP substrate shortage and "Spread" Arbitrage - $AXTI Market research is showing InP and optical components to become analogous to the HBM shortage and price craze. The initial bottleneck was caused by $NVDA monopolizing of the production capacity of EML from $COHR to $LITE (TrendForce). Here's the breakdown: $NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027. By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines. The "Second Order effect": As a result, many hyperscalers have likely delayed their roadmaps/ramp from $MSFT to $AMZN and are looking for capacity. Optical makers have also scrambled for alternative sources. Since the primary IDMs are booked, hyperscalers are moving upstream to secure wafers, substrate, and feedstock capacity directly, creating a effect that is amplifying demand at the materials level. Both 6N and 7N Indium are at all time highs on the Shanghai Metal Markets; prices sit higher on Western markets, representing a price bifurcation between China and Western markets. 6N for example sits ~$412.83-$425.46 per kg. 6N Western prices are ~$668.00 (Jan 1st, source: Indium Corporation at 5-9 kg quantities), over 50%+ premium. (Spot direct negotiations to hyperscalers would likely have different prices). Premiums for 7N would likely higher margin, with substrates commanding the most premium (not public data, but some estimates go into triple digit premiums) However, the bottleneck has now migrated upstream to substrate itself (and third order effect, feedstock) to secure capacity. $AXTI perhaps plays one of the most critical roles and unique roles as "40% of the InP supply chain" ( $AXTI CEO ER quote) in the InP bottleneck: Low costs: AXTI's factory is in Beijing. They source materials (own 10+ materials suppliers) and refine them themselves into finish substrates. Sell High: They sell finished InP substrates to the global market, where prices are inflated by the shortage and the Western Indium price. Arbitrage: As long as AXTI continues their export permits, they capture the massive spread between low Chinese manufacturing costs and high global selling prices. This is compared to Western companies that are largely affected by upstream material costs and Western premiums. As a result $AXTI, margins next quarter should expand rapidly on top of their production capacity funded by the $100m share sale injection by Northland. This is implicated from reports from late December reports from Asian Metal, indicating that Chinese suppliers explicitly "raised offering prices" for exports to the US: December 19, 2025: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This stems from capacity monopolization by hyperscalers, extended lead times, and a decoupling of "AI" material pricing from commodity baselines. The conditions for a "Massive Price Increase" for InP substrates are not just present, they are active. Throughout 2026, both the price of InP substrates, and by one-hop, the commodity price of Indium would likely see a rapid surge as hyperscalers go upstream to secure demand. The company that benefits both ways from the a possible parabolic rally in InP substrate + InP feedstock prices would be $AXTI, presenting an asymmetrical upside at $16, ~$850M MC. However, the risks are present as they're heavily reliant on export permits and US-China trade relations. TLDR, AXT: 1. Sits in the center of both InP substrate and InP feedstock bottlenecks 2. Benefits from margin arbitrage and substrate price surges between China production and US hyperscaler premiums during allocation battles. 3. Controls a major a major percentage of the world's merchant output for substrates required for the Western hyperscaler AI buildout. Hyperscalers saw Nvidia monopolized EML capacity and are likely looking at companies like $AXTI, Sumitomo or feedstock (Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA) to secure their roadmaps now. AXT is one of the most interesting companies at $850m given it controls the critical bottleneck to the hyperscaler AI buildout and captures both the InP substrate price surge + margin arbitrage opportunities.
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AXTI扩产无风险，关注价格作为需求与利润率增长的代理指标。
那里没有风险。由于 $AXTI 的一位董事会成员不幸去世，这只是例行程序。如果存在风险，Northland 和其他人就不会给他们 1.3 亿美元（行使了 1300 万美元）来资助磷化铟(InP)衬底扩产。话虽如此，上海有色网(SMM)上的 7N 级产品价格已达到历史新高，而美国市场在此基础上还支付溢价。因此，我主要关注价格作为需求以及类似 AXT 的高带宽内存(HBM)可能带来的利润率增长的代理指标。（通过铟公司(Indium Corp)在西方市场的 6N 级产品溢价约为 200%+）
原推 ↗英文原文
No risk there. It's routine procedure since one of $AXTI's board members passed away sadly. Northland and others wouldnt give them $100M to fund InP substrate expansion (exercised the $13m) if there were risk there. That being said 7N prices on SMM have reached ATHs, and American markets are paying premium on top of that. So I'd mainly watch prices as a proxy for demand and possible margin increases like HBM for AXT. (it's like 200%+ premium for 6N on Western markets via Indium Corp)
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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AXTI和SHMD的瓶颈论点同样适用于上市公司。
@retail_mourinho 谢谢！希望你度过了一个愉快的新年。 目前很多讨论集中在私募市场，但关于 $AXTI 或 $SHMD 的瓶颈论点同样高度适用于上市公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@retail_mourinho Thanks! Hope you’ve had a great new years Lot of the discussion in around private markets but the same thesis around bottlenecks with $AXTI or $SHMD is highly relevant to public companies
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
原推 ↗英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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因中国出口限制风险，买入AXTI远期看涨期权比持股更安全。
是的，这正是我买入 $AXTI 最远到期日看涨期权(Call Options)的巨大原因。如果存在2027年的行权价，我也会选择。如果中国限制出口，股价可能会被“核爆”式暴跌，此时持有股票可能损失约100万美元，而持有期权仅损失约10万美元。因此，这是极少数情况下看涨期权实际上比股票更安全的时候。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah that's a huge reason why I did $AXTI calls furthest date I could go out. I would have done 2027 strikes if they existed. If China restricts exports, it might get nuked, and you would lose like $1M in shares vs $100k in calls. So this is one of the very, very rare times Calls are actually safer then shares.
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解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
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对比住友与AXTI，指出前者营收占比低但无出口管制风险。
并非如此。我个人认为这是一家很棒的公司，但其中有些细微差别。 衬底(Substrate)生产仅占住友电工(Sumitomo)总收入的很小一部分，因为它已经是一家庞大的公司，所以你无法获得相同的敞口(Exposure)。 此外，在上游方面，他们采购磷化铟(InP)材料，而 $AXTI 部分拥有10多家原材料公司，并自行进行精炼和加工。 话虽如此，与 AXT 相比，住友电工的风险更低，因为没有出口管制核弹(Export Control Nuke)的风险，而且可能有更多的西方资金流入供应链多元化。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not quite. I personally think it's a great company but there's nuances. Substrate prod is only a small fraction of Sumitomo's total revenue since it's already a massive company so you're not getting the same exposure. Also upstream there's InP materials that they buy while $AXTI partially owns 10+ raw material companies and does the refining and processing themselves. That being said, Sumitomo is de-risked compared to AXT since theres no export control nuke and there's probably more western money being funneled into supply chain diversification.
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COHR受上游InP原料瓶颈制约，超大规模数据中心或转向直接采购上游资源。
$COHR 表现惊人，凭借其新建的 6 英寸晶圆厂，可能是磷化铟(InP)衬底生产领域的美国领先企业。 两个细微差别： 1. 他们的产量远未达到超大规模数据中心(Hyperscalers)所需的规模，目前 $AXTI 和住友(Sumitomo)的产出量更大。 2. 他们受限于上游生长晶体所需的 InP 原料（由 Vital、$DOWA 和 $AXTI（自产）控制）。 CEO 在投资者关系(ER)会议中表示，其产能已满载，且受限于 InP 激光器（以及生产它们所需的上游一级 InP）。 我的思考过程是，超大规模数据中心可能不会继续向 $COHR 增加订单积压，而是向上游延伸。他们会直接从 Vital、$DOWA、$AXTI 等控制 InP 的企业采购 6n-7n 纯度原料，交给住友/$COHR 等晶圆厂，或者再高一级，直接收购 InP 衬底库存 -> 交给 $LITE 作为保险。 话虽如此，大量资金可能会注入西方供应链，但由于上游瓶颈，其产能仍远远不够。
原推 ↗英文原文
$COHR is amazing and probably the leading US company for InP substrate prod with their new 6in wafer fab. Two nuances: 1. Their production is nowhere close to the scale needed for hyperscalers that $AXTI and Sumitomo currently outputs 2. They are bottlenecked by upstream InP feedstock needed to grow crystals (owned by Vital, $DOWA, and $AXTI (captive)). CEO said in their ER that their capacity was maxed out and limited by InP lasers (and by 1 hop InP needed to produce them) My thought process is that instead of placing more order backlogs with $COHR, hyperscalers would go upstream. They would directly source 6n-7n from Vital, $DOWA, $AXTI and others that control InP, and give them to fabs like Sumitomo / $COHR or one level higher, buy out stock of InP substrates -> hand to $LITE as insurance. That being said a lot of money will likely be poured into Western supply chains but their capacity is nowhere enough since they're still bottlenecked upstream.
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铟价持续上涨，预计2026年中出现瓶颈，$AXTI 受益最大。
更正一下上面关于铟(In)价格的内容。 6N级铟（2024年1月、2025年1月、2025年12月）~$680/公斤 -> ~$840/公斤 -> ~$1,110–$1,350/公斤 7N级铟 ~$1,150/公斤 -> ~$1,800/公斤 -> $3,450+/公斤 1.6T工艺需要7N级铟。 因此价格已经开始上涨，但我预计巨大的瓶颈(chokepoint)将出现在2026年年中。 不确定价格最终去向，但我预计会出现为确保材料供应的竞价战，且$AXTI 相比住友(Sumitomo)等其他公司，可能对此有最直接的敞口(exposure)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just to make a correction to the Indium price above 6N grade Indium (Jan 2024, Jan 2025, Dec 2025) ~$680 / kg -> ~$840 / kg -> ~$1,110 – $1,350 / kg 7N grade Indium ~$1,150 / kg -> ~$1,800 / kg -> $3,450+ / kg 1.6T requires 7N. So prices have already started to ramp up, but I expect the huge chokepoint to come mid 2026. Not sure where the price goes, I just expect a bidding war to secure materials and $AXTI probably had the most direct exposure to this over Sumitomo and others.
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分析InP材料供应瓶颈，通过历史案例说明关键材料博弈论，预判超大规模云商将抢购InP衬底产能。
当我发WSB帖子时，我半开玩笑地提到$AXTI。但对于极端瓶颈和InP供应冲击，我可不是开玩笑的。这是一个关于关键材料博弈论的呼唤。 如果我们回顾历史上许多瓶颈案例： 1. 镝(Dysprosium)：约2300%涨幅（约$100/kg -> $2400/kg，2010-11年） 2. 氖气(Neon Gas)：约1000%-2000%涨幅（2022年） 3. 铑(Rhodium)：约$3,000/盎司 -> 约$29,000/盎司（约860%） 当前铟(In)的价格涨幅与其他材料相比如何？ 89%：（约$440/kg -> 约$832/kg）。 用于半导体的关键材料（如用于光刻激光器的氖气），因为芯片制造商如英特尔和三星在乌克兰冲突期间进行了储备，价格暴涨超过2000%。他们吸收了成本，因为氖气只占芯片价值的一小部分。 与氖气一样，磷化铟(InP)是一种关键的"赋能"材料。晶圆成本相对于AI集群成本（$100的晶圆对比$30,000的GPU）来说很小。超大规模云商宁愿吸收巨大的价格上涨，也不愿延迟部署。InP目前还没有出现这种情况，但我们很可能会看到。 传统分析师和许多AI模型不知道如何建模关键瓶颈，因为历史上很少有这样的案例：一种极其廉价的商品（如InP，TAM只有几亿美元）突然成为价值数万亿美元的AI建设中最关键的材料。 目前，超大规模云商可能已经向下游供应商Coherent/$LITE下了订单，但可能没有意识到激光器生产和产能受到上游材料短缺的制约而排满。 InP衬底（$AXTI + Sumitomo + JX生产）和磷化铟原料（$AXTI、Vital、$DOWA）都存在供应储备，需求超过供应数倍。 $NVDA最初通过锁定EML大量产能加剧了供应短缺。但短缺早在超大规模云商扩产之前就已经存在，大部分需求将在2026年底至2027年Trainium或Maia出现时涌入。 但如何绕过原始瓶颈并确保AI部署？ 直接从（$AXTI、Sumitomo）购买衬底产能，或者更进一层，购买InP原料并将其交给衬底生产商，以确保谷歌的TPU项目不会停滞。 与其他关键材料（如氖气用于光刻激光器）类似，磷化铟和InP衬底对整个AI建设更为关键： 1. Nvidia：InfiniBand / NVLink（光学 - 800G/1.6T EML光模块）- 对InP高度依赖 2. Google：Jupiter / Apollo（光学 - OCS），高度依赖 3. Microsoft：Azure Maia：高（800G DR4/FR4） 4. Meta：F16 / Artemis（800G）高 这还不包括其他Mag7公司如$AMZN或使用光子技术扩展ASIC的其他公司。 目前，分析师基于TAM对InP公司进行建模。例如，2024年InP晶圆市场总规模为$183M-$205M（Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence，2024年） - 6英寸（150mm）细分市场TAM：$65M - 预计2032年InP总TAM：$580M-$700M 现在看激光级磷化铟原料的TAM： - 多晶InP原料TAM：约$3亿 - 高纯度铟（6N/7N）仅：约$4亿 衬底数据：Mordor Intelligence（InP晶圆市场2025-2030）和Straits Research。 原料数据：Market Report Analytics（磷化铟多晶行业分析2025）。 这是一种极其便宜的电信产品，现在成为整个供应链中最珍贵的材料之一。 价格上涨3000%只会占$GOOGL TPU部署或$MSFT MAIA部署BOM值的低个位数。而仅微软2027年的扩产就会占用全部InP产能的两位数百分比。 就像2022年的英特尔或半导体行业一样，超大规模云商可能会像当时囤积氖气一样，直接购买InP衬底+InP作为"保险"。 如果"TAM"实际上只有几亿美元，但每个超大规模云商如果不确保这种材料就会面临部署延迟，那么这就变成了一场博弈论竞标战。 在一个因$100衬底而停滞的价值$200亿的TPU部署中，超大规模云商会毫不犹豫地支付$10,000（比当前价格高出100倍）。 这就是为什么当你看到InP衬底公司有$5000万订单积压（来自2024年），同样的$5000万产能对未来来说在极端情况下可能价值$5亿、$50亿甚至更多。 这是一个"尾部风险"投资，如果超大规模云商被这种材料卡住，回报是极高的，但并非没有重大的地缘政治风险和稀释。 我不知道会发生什么，但我预计2026年InP衬底和InP原料都会出现巨大瓶颈。 那么，如果像$AXTI这样的公司拥有整个InP供应链40%的份额（来源：AXT CEO），而估值只有$7亿，你会给它什么估值？
原推 ↗英文原文
When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI. But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock. This is a call on critical materials game theory. If we see many historically at bottlenecks: 1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11) 2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022) 3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%) The current Indium spike compared to others? 89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg). Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value. Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will. Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout. Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream. There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors. $NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up. But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment? Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall. And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout: 1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP 2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency 3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4) 4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics. Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024) - 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m - Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock: - Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million - High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research. Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025). This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain. Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity. Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas. If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war. In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation. That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario. This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock. So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?
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AXTI掌控磷化铟关键瓶颈，制约AI光互联扩展。
$AXTI CEO：“我们占据了磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)供应链的40%份额。” 是否曾有一家如此小规模（市值7亿美元）的公司，掌控着一个数万亿美元产业的关键瓶颈？
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI CEO - “We are 40% of the Indium Phosphide supply chain” Has there ever been a company this small ($700M) that controlled a critical bottleneck for a multi-trillion dollar industry? https://t.co/tn7EOMPgas
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分析InP供应链瓶颈，指出AXT受益于垂直整合，需求总体仍超供应。
我理解你的观点是基于仅看中国国内市场，而未考虑西方AI的扩张。两点如下： 一是整体需求的极端增长。即使有6英寸磷化铟(InP)晶圆，超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的需求仍将超过供应。因此，无论是否存在竞争性替代品，需求不会消失，但可能会分散到中国国内市场的竞争者中。 二是垂直整合。你提到了西方阵营的$DOWA，特别是磷化铟(InP)领域。$AXTI控制了全球绝大部分的InP供应。如果超大规模云服务商为保险起见直接高价采购，再转交给$COHR，那么这对住友电工(Sumitomo)来说问题更大。而AXT则从这两层瓶颈中受益。新耀/JFS进入供应链只是增加了参与者，并非末日景象。例如存储领域（SK海力士；MU，三星）。 当然，如果中国实施出口管制，我们仅看中国国内市场，上述观点可能失效。但总体而言，即使增加更多参与者，需求仍超过供应（例如COHR已满产）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I can see that if you look at China domestic markets only but not western AI ramp. So two things: One is extreme ramp in general. Hyperscaler demand will always outstrip supply even with 6-inch InP wafers. So competitive alternative or not, demand doesn’t disappear but might get spread out through competitive alternatives in China’s domestic market. The other is vertical integration. You mentioned $DOWA on the western side and especially InP. $AXTI controls a huge percent of the world’s InP supply and if those prices gets jacked up from hyperscaler buying direct for insurance-> handing them to $COHR, then it’s more of an issue for Sumitomo. And AXT benefits from both layers of the bottlenecks. Xinyao/JFS entering the supply chain just makes adds one more player to the equation so it’s not doom and gloom. Eg memory (sk Hynix; MU, Samsung) Of course these points might get thrown out the drain if China export controls and we’re looking at China domestic market only. But generally demand outstrips supply (eg. COHR is at max) even if we add in more players.
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梳理AI光子学及InP衬底供应链核心标的，涵盖从底层材料到芯片的全链条。
呃，根据我个人的研究，为了全面覆盖我看好的一切： 1. $AXTI 位于整个供应链的最底端，占据 1/3 的磷化铟(InP)衬底和 1/4 的磷化铟(InP)份额。AI 供应链竟然与这只市值 7 亿美元的股票紧密相连，这完全出乎意料。 2. $DOWA + 住友电气，用于在衬底和材料方面进行西方对冲。 3. $AAOI, $LITE 针对超大规模云服务商的芯片，一家服务于 $AMZN/$MSFT，另一家服务于其他客户但更侧重于 $TPU。 4. $MRVL + $AVGO 我认为这就足以捕捉光子学物料清单(BOM)的价值以及磷化铟(InP)供应冲击。 还有一些其他有趣的标的，比如 Landmark Opto，我正在关注。 $POET 没进这个名单，反正你可以通过 $MRVL 获得敞口，除非我漏掉了什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI at the very bottom of the entire supply chain + 1/3rd of InP substrates 1/4th of InP. Completely unheard of that AI supply chain is tethered to this $700m stock. 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo Electric for Western Hedge on substrate + materials. 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler chips, one for $AMZN/ $MSFT, the other for everything but more levered to $TPU 4. $MRVL + $AVGO I think that’s kind of all you need to capture photonics BOM value + InP supply shock. There’s some other interesting ones like Landmark Opto that I’m looking at now. $POET didn’t quite make that list and you’d be getting exposure through $MRVL anyway, unless there’s something I missed
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对比住友与AXTI在磷化铟供应链中的地位及风险。
住友电气(Sumitomo)受磷化铟(InP)价格上涨影响，但如果$GOOGL直接向$DOWA或其他供应商采购原料，其影响将减弱。 $AXTI拥有完整的供应链，并占据激光级磷化铟的巨大份额。但明显的下行风险是中国出口管制。 不过住友电气体量巨大，因此你获得的并非最直接的敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sumitomo is subject to hikes in InP prices though if $GOOGL goes direct to $DOWA or others for feedstock. $AXTI owns the whole supply chain, and a huge portion of laser grade inp. But downside is obviously anuke from China exports. Sumitomo Electric is huge though so you’re not exactly getting the most direct exposure.
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分析AXTI/中国磷化铟瓶颈对AI供应链的致命影响及关键材料估值逻辑。
这是一份关于 $AXTI/中国 在衬底生产和激光级磷化铟方面导致整个 AI 基础设施建设出现单点故障的研究笔记。我并未对个别公司进行估值分析。但如果这一流程中断，$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 乃至 $GOOGL、$MSFT 都将面临极端的延迟。如果你们感兴趣，我会另写一篇文章关于如何对关键材料瓶颈进行估值。基本上，如果 2024 年的积压订单为 5000 万美元，而总可寻址市场 (TAM) 为 1.5 亿美元。而现在，由于它是关键材料，如果谷歌愿意为此支付 50 倍的溢价（仅为保持生存而增加 BOM 成本的百分之几），那么原本 5000 万美元积压订单的估值逻辑就会转变为未来产能的 25 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSFT faces extreme delays. I’ll write something else about valuing critical material bottlenecks if you want. But basically if a backlog was $50m from 2024 and TAM was $150m. And now because it’s a critical material, if Google would be willing to pay 50 times that (only a few percent increase on BOM cost to stay alive), then the valuation math of that original $50m backlog -> $2.5B for future capacity changes.
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Coherent虽为西方希望，但受制于磷化铟原料垄断，面临供应链瓶颈风险。
我认为超大规模云计算厂商尚未意识到其中的危险。$COHR 是领先的“近乎垂直整合”的美国公司。但风险在于，它仍受制于磷化铟(InP)原料的瓶颈，并从现货市场购买6N级磷化铟多晶（原料）。 如果上述公司停止销售6N多晶，Coherent 的激光和收发器业务将随着超大规模云计算厂商的建设而有效受阻。 Coherent 并不拥有像 Vital Materials 或 $AXTI 那样规模的主要铟矿或大规模6N合成工厂。 简单来说：Coherent 是打破住友与 $AXTI 之间衬底双寡头垄断的“西方希望”，但他们目前却是磷化铟原料垄断的人质。
原推 ↗英文原文
Don’t think hyperscalers understand the danger yet. $COHR is the leading “virtually integrated” American company. But the risk is it’s still stuck in the bottleneck for InP feedstock and buys 6N InP polycrystal (feedstock) from the merchant market. If the companies above stop selling 6N polycrystal, Coherent’s laser and transceiver business effectively hits a wall alongside the hyperscaler buildout. Coherent does not own major Indium mines or high-volume 6N synthesis plants on the scale of Vital Materials or $AXTI. To put it more simply: Coherent is the "Western Hope" for breaking the substrate duopoly between Sumitomo and $AXTI, but they are currently a hostage to the InP feedstok monopoly.
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AI光互连依赖磷化铟，其原料78%在中国，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
“瓶颈中的瓶颈”：磷化铟(InP) $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 构成双寡头。它们控制了全球 60% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底，是 AI 建设的关键瓶颈。 更令人警觉的是：这依赖于磷化铟(InP)。 磷化铟(InP)是垄断市场。78% 由 $AXTI 和中国控制。 这就是“瓶颈中的瓶颈”： 磷化铟(InP)衬底市场已是日本和中国实体之间的双寡头。然而，上游激光级原料（如住友所需）的生产主要由 $AXTI（再次出现）和中国公司主导。 主要问题在于： AI 行业极度依赖光子学来实现规模化。无论收发器是“基于磷化铟”还是“基于硅”，光源始终是：磷化铟(InP)。 随着 AI 集群从 1 万颗 GPU 扩展到 10 万颗以上，“铜缆瓶颈”迫使全面转向光互连。这使得磷化铟(InP)对 AI 规模化的重要性超过几乎任何其他单一材料。 此外，激光级原料纯度必须至少达到 6N（99.9999%）。即使是微量杂质（硅、硫、锌）也不像 LED 等其他领域那样可接受。大多数研究可能混淆了激光级原料与普通磷化铟产出。 住友是磷化铟衬底市场最著名的名字。他们在高端激光衬底领域占据巨大市场份额。但贸易数据显示，他们越来越依赖来自 $DOWA 和中国公司的外部磷化铟原料。（由于自有回收和储备，他们可能仍被计入原料所有权列表中） 所以，如果认为整个西方 AI 建设因有一家日本公司作为双寡头之一而感到安全，请三思。 瓶颈的源头被 $AXTI 和中国供应商所瓶颈。 如果我们看生产，以下是深度研究估算的控制权分布： Vital Materials - 35%（现货市场） - Vital 在 2020 年收购凡亚金属交易所库存（3600 吨铟），使其掌控全球铟市场。他们利用这一优势成为最大的磷化铟多晶生产商。主导成本领先者；控制原生铟供应（凡亚库存）。 $AXTI - 25%（北京同美晶体技术） - 主要自给自足。其大部分多晶生产被自家晶体生长炉消耗以制造晶圆。但他们也向现货市场销售原材料和化合物，是混合型玩家。 他们是全球唯一从矿山、精炼厂到磷化铟衬底产出的公司，鉴于他们同时拥有原材料和磷化铟衬底控制权，这是一个绝对疯狂的瓶颈。供应自家晶圆生产；关键的非日本来源。 株洲科能新材料 - 18% - 科能实现了“磷化铟多晶量产”并拥有“高度集成的自动多晶生产能力”。他们是中国铟出口配额的关键接收方。纯合成专家；主要出口商。 然后外部： $DOWA - 12% - 西方公司中最大的供应商（是的，日本）。在采矿（秋田锌）方面根基深厚，因此是高纯度金属有机化合物和化合物的领先供应商。 “日本企业”（住友、JX）的“来源” Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - IQE plc 的子公司。对于需要非中国原料的北约联盟供应链来说，这是关键战略资产，尽管他们目前正在进行资产清算。 InPACT（法国）- 3% - InPACT 称他们通过高压合成的水平梯度凝固(HGF)生产多晶锭，以满足（诺基亚、爱立信）和一些欧洲国防部门的要求。 世界其他地区 - 2% 这包括主要衬底制造商（Coherent、住友）、小规模研究生产以及试图打破垄断的韩国或台湾新兴玩家。 现实是，全球 78% 的激光级磷化铟原料产能位于中国。 光组件的需求已经以数倍超过供应/生产。这还是在上量之前。整个 AI 建设被两家公司瓶颈。 但 1/4 的材料来自：$AXTI。而约 1/3 的磷化铟衬底产出再次来自激光级原料。 整个 AI 建设依赖于一家随机的 7 亿美元公司，它既是瓶颈中的瓶颈，也是瓶颈本身。 扩大磷化铟衬底和激光级原料的生产既是国家安全问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide $AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout. What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide. InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China. Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck: The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and Chinese companies. Here's the major issue: The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether, transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide. As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material. On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs. Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves) So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again. The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies. If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls: Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant) - Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks). $AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) - Primarily Captive. Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player. They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source. Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% - Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium. Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter. Then Outside: $DOWA - 12% - The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds. The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX) Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now. InPACT (France) - 3% - InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors. Rest of World - 2% This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting to break the monopoly. The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China. The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies. But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock. The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck. It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.
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构建模型对比磷化铟激光级原料的垂直整合与公开市场供应。
@dr_lmfao_ 是的，绝对如此。我正在构建一个模型，以标准化磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)激光级原料的拥有权，对比像 $AXTI 这样的私有垂直整合玩家，与像 $DOWA 或 Vital Materials 这样在公开市场销售的其他公司。 这极其复杂 lol
原推 ↗英文原文
@dr_lmfao_ Yeah absolutely, I’m working on a model to normalize ownership of indium phosphide for just laser grade feedstock from private vertically integrated players like $AXTI vs others like $DOWA or Vital Materials that sell on open markets. It’s extremely complex lol
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澄清AXTI风险，探讨InP衬底瓶颈下的估值逻辑。
所以我并不主张买入 $AXTI，因为中国供应链存在重大风险，我只是在澄清一些误解。 如果一只股票“已经涨过了”，重要的是要区分它是否比以往任何时候都便宜，即使在历史高点(ATH)时也是如此。 看看 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)，我上次查的时候即使在历史高点也小于10。 如果磷化铟(InP)衬底价格因为极端瓶颈而像内存一样翻三倍甚至十倍（鉴于它以前被当作廉价的电信商品定价），它是已经涨过了，还是看起来比以往任何时候都便宜？ 如果一家市值7亿美元的小公司现在成了AI增长周期的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)，因为我们已经触及了InP衬底的天花板，你会如何给它估值？500%的涨幅足够吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
So I’m not advocating for buying $AXTI since there’s significant risks with China supply chains but just clearing up misconceptions. If a stock “already-ran” it’s important to differentiate if the stock is cheaper than ever, even at ATHs. Just look at $MU forward p/e which is <10 last I checked even at ATHs. If inp substrate prices triple or even 10X (given it was priced like a cheap commodity for telecom) like memory because of an extreme bottleneck, did it already run or does it look cheaper than ever? If a $700m tiny company is now the single point of failure for the growth-cycle of AI we’ve hit the ceiling of InP substrates, how would you value it? Is a 500% increase enough?
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AI供应链瓶颈类似当年锂和HBM，衬底及关键组件面临短缺与估值难题。
同意，对于交易者而言，这应该是一个有趣的机会，就像2021年电动车兴起时的锂，或者当前SK海力士和美光的高带宽内存(HBM)，如果人们能早期识别瓶颈的话。 机会众多（$AAOI尽管获得新的超大规模客户订单，年初至今仅上涨2.9%。这与Maia/Tranium等超大规模客户的部署挂钩）。 $MRVL需求极度旺盛，但主要来自Maia在2026年第四季度至2027年的需求，年初至今下跌22%。$POET作为$MRVL扩产的间接受益者。 磷化铟(InP)衬底在整个供应链中普遍短缺。$GOOGL加速TPU部署，利好$LITE，以及$COHR的垂直整合+创纪录积压订单。 像$AXTI这样极其荒谬的玩家，市值仅7亿美元，却几乎是未来AI扩产的单点故障(SPOF)。真不知道该如何给这个估值，哈哈。 $COHR、$LITE和衬底供应商现在正触及产能极限。我们将看到这需要多长时间才能达到像内存那样的极端程度。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early. Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium). $MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too. Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol. $COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.
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AXTI估值低反映其风险，AI供应链对其光子学衬底依赖加剧脆弱性。
$AXTI 确实存在很大风险。这就是为什么它的估值仅为 7 亿美元，像是一只仙股，而不是像 $SMTOY 那样超过 300 亿美元，尽管两者都是垂直整合企业且都是最重要的供应商之一。此外，AI 供应链极度依赖该公司提供的用于光子学的 inp 衬底（inp substrates）原材料以实现产能爬坡，这一事实进一步加剧了本已脆弱的 AI 基础设施建设所面临的风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
There is a lot risk with $AXTI for sure. That’s why it’s valued like a penny stock at $700m and not $30B+ like $SMTOY despite being both vertically integrated and one of the most important suppliers. And when you combine with the fact the AI supply chain is extremely reliant on this company for raw materials -> inp substrates they provide for photonics in order to ramp, that’s even a greater risk to the already fragile AI buildout.
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博主以捐款为赌注，质疑AXTI是AI行业瓶颈的说法。
@Qreiseck 如果你能指出市值7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 是如何成为整个 AI 行业瓶颈的，我就向你指定的慈善机构捐款。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Qreiseck I will donate to a charity if your choice if you can point out where you realized a $700m microcap company like $AXTI was the bottleneck for the entire AI sector.
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澄清Grok误解，指出AVGO依赖AXTI等InP衬底，AXTI具备全产业链优势。
Grok 可能混淆了晶圆制造(wafer fab)与磷化铟(InP)衬底制造。$AVGO 的 Penn 工厂仍需从住友、$AXTI 或 JX 采购 InP 衬底来制造激光器（这就是瓶颈所在），且它们很可能是客户。 而那家市值仅 7 亿美元的化合物半导体公司 $AXTI 可能是其中唯一一家实现端到端控制的企业，从镓、铟等初始原材料精炼开始就拥有上游资源。 因此，“主要不进口 InP 晶圆/衬底”这一说法可能是错误的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Grok is likely conflating wafer fab with InP substrate manufacturing. $AVGO's penn fab still requires InP substrates from Sumitomo, $AXTI, or JX to build the lasers (hence the bottleneck) and they're likely customers. And that small $700M MC company $AXTI is probably the only one of the bunch that does this end-to-end by owning Gallium, Indium, etc. on from the initial raw material refining. So the "does not primarily import InP wafers/substrates” part is probably wrong.
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光子供应链瓶颈或现类似HBM的投资机会
是的，$LITE 和 $COHR 表现惊人，自拥有强大定价权以来涨幅显著。 若深入挖掘 $AXTI（垂直整合）、住友 -> 同和等更深层环节，集中度风险与瓶颈会发出警示信号。 在 HBM（高带宽内存）领域，当人们发现瓶颈时便出现了投资机会。如今在光子供应链中，随着超大规模云厂商囤积材料并收购产能，很可能存在同样的被忽视的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep, $LITE and $COHR are amazing and are up quite a bit since they tons pricing power. Go few levels deeper into $AXTI (vertically integrated), Sumitomo -> Dowa, etc. the concentration risk + bottleneck flashes warning signs. With HBM, it was an investment opportunity when people found that bottleneck. There's likely that same overlooked opportunity with photonic supply chains now when hyperscalers hoard materials and acquire capacity.
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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InP衬底短缺成AI瓶颈，AXTI与SMTOY具关键战略价值。
没错。这正是我向 @sama、@sundarpichai、@satyanadella 及西方 AI 领袖敲响警钟的原因：磷化铟(InP)衬底严重短缺/瓶颈将限制未来涉及光子学的 TPU/ASIC 部署。基于 InP 的收发器/激光器需求远超供应数倍（来源：LightCounting + 麦肯锡）。我们才刚开始 AI 扩张，TPU 相关的 InP 衬底行业已遇瓶颈 -> 被两家企业扼住咽喉：$AXTI、$SMTOY。若贸易战影响 $AXTI，AI 集群扩展将面临材料真空。这两家公司的重要性无与伦比，暂且不论股价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Exactly. You just out why I'm sounding all the alarm bells to @sama, @sundarpichai, @satyanadella and Western AI leaders about huge InP substrate shortages/bottlenecks limiting future TPU/ASIC deployment involving photonics. Demand FAR exceeds supply for InP-based transceivers/lasers by multiple factors (source: LightCounting + McKinsey). We've only started the AI ramp with the TPU and the InP substrate industry is already bottlenecked -> held at chokepoint by two players: $AXTI, $SMTOY If trade wars affect $AXTI, there's just a complete void of available materials to scale AI clusters. There's just incredible importance on these two companies, stock price aside.
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AXTI和SMTOY垄断InP衬底，成西方AI光互连供应链致命瓶颈。
这令人极度警惕的是，西方AI基础设施建设可能会被像$AXTI和$SMTOY这样市值仅7亿美元的小公司扼住咽喉。 磷化铟(InP)衬底曾是电信领域的极小众材料，但随着其成为全球激光器和光互连(Photonics Interconnects)的关键材料，这突然变成了国家安全紧急事件。 我不确定顶级供应商是否意识到了这一点，或者至少没有意识到问题的规模（例如，与$LITE签约时并未深入考察Lite的材料供应商），因为供应链正被两家公司严重卡脖子。 以Google TPU v7的量产为例，由于他们的芯片组使用共封装光学(CPO)，几乎完全依赖光子学，这对InP供应链造成了前所未有的压力/依赖，而这种依赖在几个月前根本不存在。 随着铜互连触及上限，AI行业对AXTI的依赖本质上变成了对某家供应所有材料的小盘股的“单点故障”。 我看的不是营收数据，这种依赖关系简直荒谬，1.6T网络架构直接瘫痪。 我不确定企业接下来该怎么办，我确信他们会尝试囤积材料或签订多年协议，但无论如何，这两家公司掌握着所有主动权。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s what’s so incredibly alarming, that the Western AI buildout might be held at choke point by an obscure $700m company like $AXTI and $SMTOY. InP substrates were incredibly niche for telecom, but it’s suddenly a national security emergency as it became the material used for the world’s lasers and optional interconnects. I’m not quite sure the top level vendors realized this or at least didn’t realize the scale of this issue (eg. Signing agreements with $LITE without going deeper into the material suppliers for Lite), as the supply chain is incredibly becoming choke pointed by two companies. Google’s TPU v7 ramp for example placed an unprecedented strain/dependency on the InP supply chain that simply didn't exist a few months ago, since they use OCS for their chip pods, which is almost all in on photonics. As we’ve hit the upper limits with copper, the AI industry's reliance on AXTI is essentially a "single point of failure” on some small cap that supplies the materials for everything. I’m not looking at revenue numbers here, this dependency is just absurd, the 1.6T networking just breaks. I’m not sure where companies go from here, I’m sure they’ll try and hoard materials or secure multi-year agreements but either way two companies hold all the cards.
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磷化铟供应高度集中，成为AI基建关键瓶颈。
这是多方面的。然而，磷化铟(InP)的情况极其极端，因为 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 控制了全球约 60%以上的这一关键供应。 行业从铜向光子学的转变，在整个建设过程中造成了这种结构性的单点故障。 超大规模数据中心中的每一个光收发器/互连设备，无论是 Google 的 TPU、NVIDIA 的共封装光学(CPO)路线图，还是 AWS/Meta 的网络，都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的组件。 这就是瓶颈的定义。 整个万亿美元 AI 建设的未来，取决于某只市值 7 亿美元的随机仙股和日本工业巨头的稳定性。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's multifaceted. However, InP is EXTREME because $AXTI and $SMTOY control roughly 60%+ of this critical global supply. The industry's shift from copper to photonics has created this structural single point of failure on the entire buildout. Every optical transceiver/interconnects in hyperscaler data centers from Google TPUs, NVIDIA's CPO roadmap, AWS/Meta networks requires InP-based components. This is the definition of a bottleneck. The future of the entire trillion dollar AI buildout depends on the stability of some random $700m penny stock and a Japanese industrial giant.
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InP衬底成AI供应链瓶颈，$AXTI等公司议价权极大。
这由你自己去判断。我只是指出，两家公司（其中一家市值仅6亿美元）恰好是近期整个AI交易的关键瓶颈。历史上，磷化铟(InP)衬底是一种廉价的大宗商品。而现在……它们不再是了。如果每个花费数千亿美元购买GPU/ASIC的超大规模数据中心(hyperscaler)都无法在没有价值2000万美元的InP的情况下运转，那么像$AXTI这样的公司理论上可以将价格提高5倍，而这对于整体支出来说只是零头。你还需要考虑中国带来的巨大地缘政治风险，但如果整个建设进程被一两家公司的瓶颈所限制，60亿美元的市值通常只是微不足道的零钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s for you to figure out. I’m just highlighting how two companies (one of which is worth $600m) happens to be the bottleneck of the entire AI trade in the near future. Historically InP substrates were a cheap commodity. And now… they’re not. If every single hyperscaler spending hundreds of billions of GPUs/ASICs can’t function without $20m of InP, companies like $AXTI can theoretically raise prices 5x and it would be a rounding error. There is a massive geopolitical risk with China for you to consider too but $600m MC is typically hilarious pocket change if the entire buildout is bottlenecked by one or two companies.
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AI ASIC放量或致InP衬底短缺，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
谢谢。我们可能暂时看不到磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈，但随着超大规模云服务商ASIC（TPU、Trainium、Maia等）放量，预计2026年中将出现类似存储的供应紧张。这并不意味着材料供应商应像$LITE那样估值，但整个未来AI建设存在单一故障点，且源自$AXTI这样一家市值仅6亿美元的小公司，这很有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, we might not see a InP substrate bottleneck yet, but we’ll likely see it when hyperscaler ASICs (TPU, Trainium, Maia, etc.) ramp up -> supply strains like memory mid-2026. That doesn’t quite mean material providers should be valued like $LITE, but the fact that the entire future AI buildout has a single point of failure that comes from a small $600m company like $AXTI is amusing.
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因AI供应链瓶颈逻辑，做多光子股并提示AXTI地缘风险。
披露：我在光子学领域持有 $LITE、$AAOI 和 $AXTI 的头寸。 从我个人的思考过程来看，如果我观察到整个 AI 行业以及像 $LITE 和中际旭创(Innolight)这样的玩家，都被一家市值不足 6 亿美元（甚至低于一家尚未盈利的 LLM 初创公司）的企业所瓶颈制约，我会做多。 下行风险包括：如果中国希望限制 $AXTI 在美国市场，可能会改变其所有权稀释结构。
原推 ↗英文原文
Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector. From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long. There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets.
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AI供应链向光子学转型，INP基板双寡头垄断构成严重瓶颈。
HBM（高带宽内存）在2025年是一个关键瓶颈，我们从$MU和SK海力士身上看到了这一点。 正在研究未来超大规模云计算厂商ASIC（专用集成电路）部署所使用的组件，整个行业正在向光子学（Photonics）转型。 如果我们深入该供应链的底层，用于INP（绝缘体上铟磷）基板的供应商只有两家公司。想到这一点真是荒谬。 对于像$AXTI这样的公司来说，这可能是一个巨大的市场机会，但仅从国家安全风险的角度来看，这是一个需要被审视的疯狂瓶颈。虽然有像$COHR这样的公司，但远未达到AI基础设施建设所需的规模。
原推 ↗英文原文
HBM was a critical bottleneck in 2025 and we've seen that with $MU and SK Hynix. Just researching components used for future hyperscaler ASIC deployments, the whole industry is moving to photonics. If we go to the bottom of that supply chain it's just two companies for INP substrates. Which is absurd to think about. It could be a huge market opportunity for investors for stuff like $AXTI, but just in terms of national security risk, it's just a crazy bottleneck that needs to be looked at. There's companies like $COHR, but nowhere near to scale required for AI buildout.
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AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。
警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.
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推荐光子材料供应商AXTI，市值5亿美元。
@manukafirth 另一个不错的标的是 $AXTI，它是 $LITE / 光子学(Photonics) 的材料供应商。市值5亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc