$SPCX
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SMCI 2027 营收指引大幅超预期，博主看好其估值重估空间并持有短期多头。
$SMCI 2027 年的指引简直“邪门”：FY 2027 营收指引为 650-720 亿美元…… 相比之下，市场预期约为 524 亿美元，轻松超出共识 161 亿美元。 SMCI 在此次财报中录得了超过 600 亿美元的新增订单。 这个时间线也很有趣，因为他们在 6 月曾宣布计划与 $SPCX 和 xAI 在“一年内”联合建设数据中心(DC)。 但如果 SMCI 能在那约 700 亿美元的营收指引下维持 10-15% 的毛利率……我认为鉴于市值(MC)仅约 200 亿美元，估值重估的空间很大（非财务建议，NFA，我目前基于此次财报持有 SMCI 的短期头寸）。 最重要的是从今天的电话会议中了解 2027 年的毛利率情况。
英文原文
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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GOOGL云业务超预期利好AI需求，支撑LITE等光网络板块。
$GOOGL 今日公布财报： 每股收益(EPS)：实际 $9.11 vs 预期 $2.91 - 散户对 EPS 大幅超预期的反应某种程度上只是会计噪音，因为 $SPCX、Anthropic 等可能是主要贡献者。 营收：实际 $1197 亿 vs 预期 $1169.8 亿 Google Cloud 营收：$247.7 亿，同比 +82%，vs 预期的 63-65% ($222-$226 亿) - 这是巨大的超预期，也是目前最重要的部分。 Cloud 营业利润：~$88.1 亿，暗示利润率 35.6%，vs Q1 的 32.9%。 资本支出(Capex)：$449.2 亿 vs ~$441.5 亿（基本符合预期）。 所以初步解读是 Google Cloud 增长加速且利润率扩张，这对 AI 需求确实是看多(bullish)信号。 他们此前 $180-$190 亿的资本支出指引已经非常庞大，只要我们在财报电话会 + 前瞻指引中看到围绕这些数字... 对于 $LITE 和其他光学/网络交易来说应该没问题了。（例如上次财报，他们说数据中心和网络将占资本支出的 ~40%）。 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscaler)的财报电话会记录可能是 AI 资本支出交易中最需要关注的。 那应该在 3 分钟后开始。
英文原文
$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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NBIS签Reflection算力协议后股价反跌，博主暗示背后另有合作伙伴。
$NBIS 与 Reflection AI 签署超 10 亿美元算力协议，通过 2029 年获取 GB300 访问权。Reflection 此前也与 $SPCX 签署了数十亿美元协议。鉴于 $NBIS 今日闻讯下跌 5%，这至少可以说很有趣。此外……完成此事的合作伙伴 https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
英文原文
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
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GLW短期难替代FAU；Starlink扩产或致CCL交换机产能瓶颈。
简要回顾 TLDR： - 据摩根士丹利，$GLW 玻璃桥接(glass bridge)有潜力，但短期内难以取代 FAU（如 FOCI）。 - $SPCX Starlink 第三代正扩展至 10 万台（是上一代的 10 倍），可能给转向覆铜板(CCL)的交换机供应商带来产能瓶颈。 - PCB
英文原文
Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB
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xAI发布高效Grok 4.5，效仿中国厂商以性价比竞争。
哇，看来 Elon 和 xAI 在 $SPCX 上成功构建了具有 Anthropic Opus 级别能力的 Grok 4.5 大语言模型。而且成本效率更高……这有点像中国厂商为了在价格+采用率上竞争所采取的策略。（鉴于中国模型的增长，这确实是一件理想的事 https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg）
英文原文
Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg
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看好埃隆推动美国机器人产业重回第一，个人持有CCXI。
@stockshop199020 基本上就是埃隆。- 他和 $SPCX 是美国在太空领域领先的主要原因。- $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时在时间框架上会出错，但方向是对的，所以我很确信他能再次让美国机器人产业重回第一。我个人持有 $CCXI。
英文原文
@stockshop199020 Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI
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博主讽刺散户研报将SpaceX估值至1万亿美元，堪比机构。
Raymond James 对 $SPCX 开启覆盖，给予“强力买入”评级。 给出 $800 的目标价，将 SpaceX 估值约为 ~$10T（1万亿美元）。 无话可说。关于散户撰写“机构”研报的玩笑不攻自破。 https://t.co/B0RojaNJZ
英文原文
Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ
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批评美IPO高估值，建议效仿中企模式让散户平价参与。
@hitraderjoe 最近的美国IPO模式非常愚蠢，比如 $SPCX / $CBRS 在上市前将估值炒高到荒谬的数字。更多的美国上市应效仿宇树科技（Unitree，可能获得更高估值）+ 中国的IPO如光智能（Lightelligence）。这些允许散户以相同的价格进入。
英文原文
@hitraderjoe Recent US IPO models have been very stupid like $SPCX / $CBRS hiking valuations to absurd numbers before going public. More US listings should follow Unitree (which would likely command higher valuations) + China's IPOs like Lightelligence. That allow retail access at the same
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乐天与ASTS合资建日本LEO卫星网，以应对Starlink竞争。
据 Digitimes/日经报道，日本乐天(Rakuten)将与 $ASTS 成立合资企业，在日本建设低地球轨道(LEO)卫星网络。这一举措被广泛视为对 $SPCX Starlink 在日本日益增长的影响力做出的战略回应。
英文原文
Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei. "The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan" https://t.co/RDFvgQNVsp
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博主认为2020-2030是人类历史上最辉煌的十年，涵盖航天、AI与机器人领域。
老实说，2020-2030 这十年可能是人类历史上最牛（goated）的十年。 - 通过 $RKLB 到 $SPCX 实现大规模可重复使用火箭的扩展，用于轨道计算。 - 借助 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 站在人工超级智能 (ASI) 和递归学习的门槛上。 - 波士顿动力 (Boston Dynamics) 和宇树科技 (Unitree) 的惊人突破。
英文原文
Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree
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SPCX收购Mesh后，SIVE因早期合作历史有望立即受益。
@beauty_oe 我习惯思考当新闻发布时，谁会立即受益。考虑到 $SPCX 收购 Mesh 后与早期初创公司合作的历史，我认为 $SIVE 可能会受益。恭喜粉丝达到 2 万！
英文原文
@beauty_oe ニュースが発表された時、誰がすぐに恩恵を受けるのかを考えるようにしているんです。 $SPCXによるMeshの買収後、初期のスタートアップと協業してきた実績を考えると $SIVE が恩恵を受けそうだなと思いました。 フォロワー2万人達成、おめでとうございます！
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马斯克收购光网络初创Mesh，分析其光引擎自研及激光器外采供应链。
$SPCX / 埃隆·马斯克收购了 Mesh，一家光网络初创公司。 该公司正在研发 1.6T OSFP（可插拔）光模块。 看来他们拥有光引擎/封装方面的技术，但很可能从商业公司采购连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器。 $SIVE 是对初创公司更友好的供应商之一 https://t.co/A1H7Bd6ZU4
英文原文
$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly https://t.co/A1H7Bd6ZU4
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SPCX市值暴跌，反向克拉默策略短期大幅跑赢指数。
哇，$SPCX 的市值现在已下跌超过 5830 亿美元…… 自从吉姆·克拉默 (Jim Cramer) 在 210 美元给出看多 (bullish) 建议以来。说实话，目睹这一切真是令人惊叹。 反向克拉默 (Inverse Cramer) 策略在 3 个交易日内回报约 21%，跑赢了你最大指数一整年的表现？ https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
英文原文
Wow, $SPCX is now down over $583B in MC... Since Jim Cramer gave a bullish call at $210. Pretty amazing to witness tbh. Inverse Cramer would have returned ~21% in 3 trading days, outperforming a year in your largest indexes? https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
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调侃克拉默定律，称SPCX无法承受其推荐。
我认为吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的定律值得被写进历史书里。就连 $SPCX 也承受不住他的“祝福”。
英文原文
I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing.
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吉姆·克拉默为SPCX背书，暗示其看涨。
吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)为 $SPCX 背书。
英文原文
Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.
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SPCX斥资600亿收购Cursor，作者质疑估值但看好其数据价值。
哇， $SPCX 以600亿美元收购了Cursor。 我认为它不值那么多…… 也许网络效应或用于改进模型的数据变得无价？ 我相信埃隆心里有盘算，Twitter收购带来了极大的回报。
英文原文
Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B. I did not think it was worth that much… Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable? I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends.
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调侃美国投资者无视估值狂热追捧太空概念股SPCX。
显然，$SPCX 现在是一家市值 2.5 万亿美元的公司了。 我之前确实说过，美国人会购买任何具有未来感的东西，而不在乎估值…… 我想在“Murica”（美国俚语）里，一切都在疯狂上涨（go brrr）。
英文原文
Apparently, $SPCX is a $2.5T company now. I did say Americans would buy anything futuristic without caring about valuations... I guess everything in Murica go brrr.
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特朗普政策利好，看好功率半导体、光学及太空板块个股。
没错，看空确实非常愚蠢。特朗普正在竭尽全力在中期选举前提振市场。此外，你的 $WOLF 功率半导体组合应该会因 800V 直流电(800 VDC)加速而暴涨。$LITE 光学组合应该会因磷化铟(InP)供应缓解而暴涨。$SPCX 成功上市(IPO)带来了更多热情。
英文原文
Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to
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作者认为技术分析是占星术，本质是确认偏误与心理博弈。
这话可能会让很多人不爽： 但技术分析(TA)就是交易者的占星术。 它本质上是确认偏误加上关于入场点的人类交易心理学。 有点像人们从 $SPCX 首发公开募股(IPO) 中抢跑 $SPCE，指望散户因交易心理而输错股票代码。 $SIVE 并没有上涨 1900%。
英文原文
This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900%
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博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。
如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，
英文原文
If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,
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调侃散户买错SPCE而非SPCX，显示SpaceX IPO需求。
所有人都在 $RDDT 上赚到改变人生的收益。 结果全杠杆买了错误的 $SPCE（Virgin Galactic）代码。 而不是尚未上市的 $SPCX。 我想这只是说明，散户对 SpaceX IPO 的需求有多大。
英文原文
Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT. Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker. Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO. https://t.co/AzcpV5fZ3P
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用星战梗概括太空、激光和机器人主题。
我完全相信股市在暗中围绕建造死星和战斗机器人运转： $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = 死星 $LASR / $SIVE = 激光束 $TSLA / Unitree = 战斗机器人
英文原文
I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids: $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star $LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams $TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8