$SNDK
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称AAOI是最喜欢的美国光学多头，2027年上半年到下半年或是拐点。
我确实说过 $AAOI 是我最喜欢的美国光学多头…… 今天 +20.1%。 如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，你正在看着它。 我认为2027年上半年进入下半年时，可能会是光子学玩家的巨大拐点。 我们只是稍微早了一点，现在才进入2026年下半年，而大家还在……
英文原文
I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is https://t.co/0JuWJFrz32
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高增长公司需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
回复 @michaelsikand：是的，同意。我认为一般来说，如果你的股票不叫 $MSFT 或不是大型软件公司。 对于 $AAOI 或 $SNDK 这样的超高增长名字，你需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
英文原文
@michaelsikand Yep agreed, i think just in general if your stock isn’t called $MSFT or a big Software name. You would need to calculate your own fwd P/E ratios with hypergrowth names like $AAOI or $SNDK.
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对比软件股小幅反弹与AI光学股200-1000%涨幅。
我仍觉得很好笑，软件兄弟们看到 $CRM 到 $FIG 反弹10-15%就很开心。 此前他们的组合已经被抹掉25-60%。 与此同时，从 $SNDK 到 $AAOI 的所有 AI 名字随随便便上涨200-1000%。
英文原文
I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.
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复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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强调前瞻跟踪比看 13F 更有用
我不太明白为什么大家要把 13F 文件看得那么深，而很多对冲基金在像 $JBL、$LITE 这些名字上都已经慢半拍了。 最好的收益来自在机构意识到下一个 $SNDK 之前就先买进去。 不是等他们在 3 个月后披露完再跟。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
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喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工股被更多关注
@EVOLBullStocks 我其实很喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工公司能获得更多关注。 只是这个行业本身太无聊了（但复利很好），而投资者现在似乎更偏爱 $SNDK 这种高增长故事。
英文原文
@EVOLBullStocks I actually like NCI a lot and hope Japanese chemical players get more attention. It's just a very boring type of industry (but great compounders) and investors seem to prefer the $SNDK hypergrowth stories right now.
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Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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感叹价值股投资者都被这轮周期淘汰了
我感觉这轮周期里，所有做 $FISV、$PYPL、$NVO 这类价值 / 股息投资的人都“灭绝”了？ 去年还很流行…… 但如果你转去做 $INTC 或 $SNDK 这类半导体，年内其实已经能赚 200-400%+。 X 上现在全是 AI 瓶颈话题，感觉这波趋势还是我带起来的？ https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr
英文原文
I feel like all the $FISV, $PYPL, $NVO value/dividend investors went extinct this cycle? Was very popular, even last year… But if you pivoted to semis like $INTC or $SNDK, you would be up 200-400%+ YTD. X feed is just AI bottlenecks now, feel like I helped start a new trend? https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr
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澄清自己是在拿 SNDK 开玩笑，IREN 才是真 meme
@EhrmantrautCap_ 我是在拿 $SNDK 开玩笑。 $IREN 才是真正的 meme stock。
英文原文
@EhrmantrautCap_ I was talking about $SNDK as a joke. $IREN is a true meme stock.
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认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强
我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的，像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字，通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
英文原文
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
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用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
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看着多个板块一起暴涨
我就在看从 $EWY 到 $SNDK 的一切都涨得离谱…… 连 $MU 今天都涨了 12%。 呃……今年至今真的有点离谱。 https://t.co/FJKQjq8YJk
英文原文
I’m just watching everything from $EWY to $SNDK go up enormous amounts… Even $MU is up 12% today. Uhhh… YTD is getting a little ridiculous. https://t.co/FJKQjq8YJk
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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作者两个月前逆势做多$EWY，现在浮盈约3倍，证明自己判断正确。
两个月前所有人都在唱空 $EWY。 称其为“白银崩盘”或“高丽指数泡沫”。 现在他们全都改口，说自己一直看多存储器。 即便从 $RPI 到 $SIVE 的恐惧发帖不断，我的论点最终还是正确的。 我能积累24.5万+粉丝的主要原因，是我对自己的观点始终保持一致性且立场坚定。 我的 $EWY 多头仓位现在浮盈约3倍。 （引用内容）： 感觉所有人都在唱空韩国综合指数（KOSPI），说： > “看看这图表，它不可能一直涨下去！” > 存储器是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 要等3年才能交付预订单） > $EWY 基本就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，不能代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨。 > 存储器需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争就消失，只是会变得更贵。 > 原油/LNG能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云厂商，不会被运营费用吸收。 这看起来是恐惧抛售和去杠杆化（3倍杠杆ETF和10倍可能已被清洗），而不是实质性运营问题（略有 bearish 阻力，但不至于 -30%）。 SK海力士期货现在市值交易区间在$300B 高位到 $400B 低位。 如果 $MS 和更新的分析师预期即使略微正确，SK海力士的营业利润例如将达到约$300B。 到2028年他们将坐拥大量现金储备，即使存储器价格下跌也不怕。（甚至还没考虑需求变成结构性）。 这看起来又是另一个DeepSeek-Nvidia式的恐惧抛售情形，尤其是在nand/dram价格最近再次调涨之后。更像是底部时机的把握问题。 像这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的标题党抛售更重要。
英文原文
Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago. Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble” Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along. Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right. Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance. My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
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SNDK 已提前反映业绩预期
@iamsattam $SNDK 在财报前一个月已经涨了 72.59%，所以市场显然已经在定价超预期。 我不确定它接下来会怎么走，但如果是一家在财报前能见度不高的公司，报出这种数据，股价通常会涨得更高。
英文原文
@iamsattam $SNDK already rose 72.59% the month before earnings... so markets were definitely pricing in a beat. Not sure which way it goes, but if it were a company without much visibility going into earnings. Then they reported those types of numbers, would be up a lot higher.
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记忆类公司往往提前重估
我说过，像 $SNDK 或 $MU 这种存储公司，重估发生在真正公布财报之前，而不是财报当天。 你可以用第三方 NAND/DRAM TrendForce 这类涨价报告来估算，再据此推 gross margin。 我之前就拿美光做过例子，算出来的毛利率和实际报告几乎完全一致。
英文原文
I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings. You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those. I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.
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SNDK 财报远超预期
$SNDK 的业绩实在太强了…… Q3 业绩： 营收：59.5 亿美元，对比约 47 亿美元预期（同比增长 252%，超预期 26%） EPS：23.41 美元，对比约 14.5 美元预期（超预期 62%） 毛利率：约 78.4%，对比 67.3%（比预期高 1,110 个基点） Q4 2024 指引： 营收：77.5 亿至 82.5 亿美元，对比约 65 亿美元预期（高出预期 23%） EPS：30 至 33 美元，对比约 23 美元预期（高出预期 37.0%） 存储公司（披露一下，我确实持有 Sandisk）比 $RDDT 这类靠流量数据来预判的公司更容易提前定价。 只靠 NAND 涨价之类的第三方数据……所以重估确实发生在前面，而不是财报当天。 不管怎样，这正式确认了存储公司正在起飞…… 存储厂商的业绩非常炸裂，而且今年大概率还会继续往上走。
英文原文
$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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存储链条继续起飞
从 $MU 到 $EWY（SK 海力士、三星）再到 $SNDK，存储相关名字最近都在疯狂起飞。 除了三大厂之外，还有 NAND 或台湾的名字，比如南亚科。 现在也许是看看 Towa（6315）的好时机，用来捕捉 HBM4 上游垄断的 capex 周期？ https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
英文原文
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4? https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
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光子与存储都在加速
谁会想到把 Tangerine Peel 风格公司给资金…… 然后去做空光子和存储里增长最快的名字？ $SNDK 和 $AAOI 最近都在疯狂上涨。 我也看到像 AAOI 这样的名字会继续增长，因为光模块和美国制造供应链都在扩张。
英文原文
Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.
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不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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这是卡点，不是短缺
这些是横跨多年超级周期的卡点，不是瓶颈。 $AXTI、$SNDK 符合瓶颈的定义。 但像玻璃核心或者 DFB 激光这类东西，应该能穿越 2028 年，而这就是光子学或先进封装架构变化带来的下一轮量产爬坡的开始。
英文原文
These are chokepoints over multiple year supercycles not bottlenecks. $AXTI, $SNDK fit the definition of a bottleneck. But stuff like glass core or dfb lasers should scale past 2028 and this is the beginning of the next volume ramp from architectural shifts in photonics or advanced packaging.
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批评做空要做在基本面差的公司上。
$AAOI 和 $SNDK： 它们正是为什么你不该跟着那些以 Tangerine peel 命名的对冲基金走的完美例子…… 如果你要做空，就去做空基本面很差的公司。 而不是去做空光子和存储超级周期里两个最大的受益者？ 我实在理解不了他们交易背后的逻辑。
英文原文
$AAOI and $SNDK: Are the perfect examples why you don’t follow hedge funds named after Tangerine peels… Like if you’re going short, do it with companies with terrible fundamentals. Not two of the largest beneficiaries of the photonics and memory supercycles? I struggle to understand the reasoning behind their trades.
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把 Sandisk 和 AAOI 的空头当作上涨燃料，认为市场低估了前向增长。
$SNDK 就是为什么你不该信那些以橘子命名的券商 / 研究机构的绝佳例子。 Sandisk 和 $AAOI 的远期盈利压缩得非常厉害。 我认为空头只是这轮上涨的燃料…… 因为做空的人根本不理解前向增长、瓶颈以及 TAM 的极度扩张。
英文原文
$SNDK is a perfect example why you don’t trust firms named after tangerines. Forward earnings compresses extremely hard with Sandisk and $AAOI. My opinion is that shorts are just fuel to the rally… Since people who took the other end of the trade, show a lack of understanding of forward growth, bottlenecks, and extreme TAM expansion.
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提到做空 Sandisk 的人已经亏了 30%。
@gahhhbor 他们做空了 $SNDK，现在已经亏了 30%。不是所有人都真的知道自己在说什么。
英文原文
@gahhhbor They shorted $SNDK and are down 30%. Not all people know what they’re talking about?
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认为多年期瓶颈让人能更安心持有，因为订单可见度延伸到 2028。
多年期瓶颈的好处在于： 从 $HPS.A 到 $SNDK 再到 $LITE 即便像今天这样市场波动，你也能睡得更安稳一点。 因为你知道即使只有 1 年，需求也会极其强劲…… 就算特朗普想把 Bikini Bottom 炸了，其他公司也可能受影响更大： -> 一家在变压器市场份额极大 -> 一家在 NAND 市场份额极大 -> 一家在 EML/OCS 市场份额极大。 而它们的共同点是，订单大概率都已经排到 2028 年。 这意味着几乎可以确定的基本面收入，以及下一年大概率的利润率扩张。 现在还是 2026 年上半年。
英文原文
The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from: $HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today. Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year... Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted: -> One has a huge market share over Transformers -> One has huge market share over NAND -> One has huge market share over EML/OCS. And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028. Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year. It's H1 2026 now.
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认为 DRAM 是一个很好的存储 ETF。
如果你想要存储敞口，$DRAM 这个 ETF 真的很不错。 我平时不太会夸 ETF，但这个确实很扎实。 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% 披露：@roundhill 的朋友们确实联系过我讨论发行事宜，但我不是收钱替它说话（免得你以为这条随机帖子是赞助的，不是的）。 如果你拿不到海外股票，这确实是一个很好的存储敞口 ETF。 我也希望更多机构去做这类 ETF。
英文原文
If you want exposure to memory, $DRAM is a genuinely great ETF. I normally don't praise ETFs, but this is solid. 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% Disclosure: Friends over at @roundhill did reach out about the launch, but I'm not getting paid to say this (just in case you think this random post is sponsored, it's not). Just a genuinely great ETF for memory exposure if you don't have access to foreign stocks. And I’d encourage more institutions to make ETFs like this.
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认为 AAOI 像早期 SNDK，关键取决于执行和产能目标。
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI 看起来像早期的 $SNDK。 成败很大程度上取决于执行，但他们预测自己会从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，拿下美国最大的 1.6T 产能，这一点挺看多的。
英文原文
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI does look like an early $SNDK. Largely dependent on execution, but the fact they project they'll have the largest 1.6T capacity in the US from projections (from inp laser fab to assembly), is pretty bullish.
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请大家选出下一只高确定性高增长股。
好了各位，我很好奇你们对下一只 1350%+ 一年回报的 $SNDK，或者 2918% 一年回报的 $AXTI 有什么看法。 如果必须只选一只、极高 conviction、抛物线式增长的股票…… 你会选哪只，为什么？
英文原文
Okay chat. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the next 1350%+ 1Y return $SNDK or 2918% 1Y return $AXTI. If you have to choose 1 very high conviction, hyperbolic growth stock... What would it be and why?
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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说可以把 MU/SNDK 换成海力士，把 COHR 换成 LITE，强调自己偏好的标的。
@ajouannic 你可以把 $MU / $SNDK 换成海力士。或者把 $COHR 换成 $LITE。 我只是说说我个人更看好的替代选择。
英文原文
@ajouannic You can replace $MU / $SNDK with Sk Hynix. Or replace $COHR with $LITE. I'm just saying my personal preferences in what I expect to outperform.
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概述自己的打法：先识别新兴赛道，再沿整条供应链做多，同时强调风控和透明。
如果你现在还不了解我的风格： 我会先识别即将起来的赛道（光子学、存储、无人机），然后沿着整条供应链去做多。 当然，我也不是每次都对。 $AVAV 和无人机板块是我今年除 $RDDT 外亏得最多的（不过 $OSS 最后涨了 60%+）。 我仍然从基本面上相信像 $AIRO、$LPTH 等公司长期都非常扎实。（$AIRO 现在仍然涨了大约 15%，但它曾经 70%+ 的涨幅大部分都没了，Draganfly 跌得更多。） 而且光看 $SNDK 这种超级周期，就会产生一种非常不现实的预期，觉得每个月都能涨 100%。 我在那个板块里识别的主要催化，是委内瑞拉入侵带来的隐蔽无人机 + 前沿防御合同 / 分包商需求。 我也预期后续会有资金继续流入这个板块。 不过，在格陵兰协议那一段，我提过自己已经开始降风险了（大多数防务承包商都跌了），但我还是保留了像 $AVAV 这种较小仓位。 SCAR 项目输给其他公司，比如 $AVAV，这也是个更大的意外，我亏得更多。 不幸的是，伊朗战争这次主要冲击的是像 L3 Harris、$NOC 这种更大的防务承包商，以及像 Anduril 这样的私营公司，还有一些定向能供应商，比如 $LASR。 所以无人机公司并没有多少顺风修复。 尽管如此，我确实知道怎么止损。 但我还是经常被人喷，说“看你今年早些时候喜欢过的 X 股票”。 在这件事上我很透明：$IREN 社区里某些高管，在他们的粉丝因为 $BKKT 或 $ASST 稀释后亏掉 90% 之后，会把所有帖子都删掉。 我挑的多数股票基本面都非常扎实，所以从最初 thesis 出来以后，它们要么守住了自己的价位。 而且我也会把风险等级 / 信念等级一起写出来（风险高的当然下行也更大）。 我比那些只会发热评的人更有 skin in the game。 所以如果我的 thesis 错了，我自己也会亏钱（这种例子还有很多，像 $AVAV 这种就是无穷无尽的亏损）。 但我会把所有东西都留着，让你们自己看事情最后怎么演变。
英文原文
If you don't know my style by now: I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain. I'm not always right, though. $AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ). I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more) And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month. The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors. And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector. However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV. SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more. Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR. So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies. That being said, I do know how to cut losses. But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year". I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution. Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis. And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside). I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes. So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills like this, just endless losses on $AVAV). But I leave everything up so you can see how things play out.
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讨论 Google TurboQuant 对 DRAM/NAND 的影响，认为更像效率提升而非需求坍塌。
谷歌的 TurboQuant…… 以及它对 $SNDK、$MU、海力士和其他公司的影响： 它做的事情是： -> KV cache 内存占用减少 6 倍 -> H100 GPU 速度提升 8 倍 它本质上是一个压缩算法。 那现在问题来了……它会把存储压下去吗？ -> 大概率不会。 不过这也许对 $ARM 和其他公司是利好，因为你可以本地跑 AI，而不是依赖 DRAM-heavy 的数据中心。 但话说回来： -> 这基本上就是 DeepSeek round 3。你能让算法更高效，但这并不会替代存储或者 GPU。 -> 它可能会在结构上略微降低 DRAM 需求。 -> 而且到目前为止，好像也只在 Gemma、Mistral 和 Llama-3.1 这些小模型上测试过（而且那篇论文已经发了一年了） 另外，市场还把 DRAM 和 NAND 混在一起看……这个算法压的是 KV cache（DRAM），并不会对 NAND 存储有什么作用？ 不管怎样： 算法总会变得更高效。大家老说杰文斯悖论，这没错，因为这只是把用途规模继续放大。 真正该看的还是超大规模云厂商的 CapEx 预期，而不是让事情更高效的 Google 算法。 我更觉得这是个叙事层面的逆风，而不是对盈利有实质影响。
英文原文
Google's TurboQuant... And it's effect on $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix, and others: What it does: -> 6x reduction in KV cache memory footprint -> 8x Speedup on H100 GPUs It's a compression algorithm. Now... Will it beat down memory? -> Prob not. Implications might be bullish for $ARM and others though where you can run AI locally, rather than DRAM heavy DCs. However: ->This is basically DeepSeek round 3. You can make algorithms more efficient. But that doesn't replace either memory or GPUs. -> It could structurally (and slightly) reduce DRAM demand. -> think it's only been tested on small models so far like Gemma, Mistral, and Llama-3.1 (and paper's been out for a year) Also, markets conflated DRAM with NAND... this algo compresses the KV cache (DRAM). Doesn't do anything to NAND storage? Regardless: Algorithms will always get more efficient. People keep saying Jevons Paradox, which is true since this just scales use cases. Main thing to look out for is hyperscaper capex projections, not Google Algorithms that made things more efficient. Feels more like a narrative headwind than anything material to earnings.
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认为 Sandisk 投资 Nanya 可能说明传统存储瓶颈比市场想的更严重。
@Kaizen_Investor 也许对 $SNDK 来说这是战略性动作，我不觉得他们会随便到处扔 10 亿美元。 我会继续挖一挖，看看市场是不是忽略了更大的影响。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor Probably strategic for $SNDK, don't think they'd just throw $1B around here and there. Will do some digging and see if there's any larger implications markets are missing.
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说自己年初看多 Nanya，没想到 SNDK 现在直接入股，暗示旧存储瓶颈可能被低估。
哇，Nanya 年初还是我做多的标的…… 我完全没想到 $SNDK 现在居然刚刚入股了它 10 亿美元以上。 Sandisk 选择入股像 Nanya 这样的公司，说明 legacy memory 的瓶颈可能比市场想的更大、也更被低估。 这对 Macronix 以及其他台湾公司也有巨大的影响。 或者……$SNDK 只是 NAND 价格上涨赚太多了，正好找地方花钱？
英文原文
Woah Nanya was my long earlier in the year... Did not expect $SNDK to take a $1B+ stake in it just now. Fact that Sandisk is taking stakes in companies like Nanya, means bottleneck in legacy memory might be bigger / more underpriced than marketes thought. Massive implications for others like Macronix + other TW companies. Or... $SNDK just has too much money from NAND price hiking and needed somewhere to spend it?
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批评持有$IREN者被套牢还看涨，质疑其投资逻辑
我真的对那些还持有$IREN的人感到惊讶。 想象一下，市值接近60亿美元…… 最终被稀释，在每次股市反弹时都被抛售到公开市场…… 然后还看涨？ 如果你为了100-200%+的年初至今涨幅而避开$SNDK或$AAOI。 因为你把公司看得比自己的投资组合回报更重要。 你就陷入了特殊的$AMC套牢族境地。
英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN. Imagine getting close to half the market cap… ~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally… then still being bullish? If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD. Because you care more about a company over your own portfolio returns. You’re in the special $AMC bagholding territory.
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AAOI在光收发器超级周期中拥有巨大的重新估值潜力，其美国本土完整供应链是核心优势。
如果你是$AAOI的新手： 在 ATH 附近以 $109 进场看起来很吓人，毕竟今年已涨了 175%。 然而，这看起来就像是光子学领域的 $SNDK。 而碰巧的是，光收发器超级周期的中心... 在 $8.2B 估值下，我们可以看看预测： （预计产能 * 平均售价预测） 2026年Q2：~$312.1M 2026年Q4：~$1.41B 2027年Q2：~$1.53B 2027年Q4：~$1.97B 如果$AAOI最终在营收上超越了 $55B 的 $LITE... $8B 市值对于这种收入增长来说看起来有点荒谬，利润率可达 30-40%... 重新估值潜力是巨大的。 最坏的情况如果内部激光晶圆厂失败，就得从 $COHR 采购。 或者最终成为一个美国制造版的 Innolight / Eoptolink（两家都是 $66B-$90B+ 的中国公司）？ 在美国建立完整供应链的选择权被低估了。 $AAOI 是我少数高度看多的标的之一，除了 $SIVE 和 $LITE，如果他们能兑现预测的话。
英文原文
If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK. And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle... At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections: (est. Capacity * ASP Projections) Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue... $8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins… Re-rating potential is enormous. Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR. Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)? The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated. $AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
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认为即使宏观不佳，光子供应链瓶颈在资金流入后仍会跑赢大盘。
不会。实际上，像 $AXTI 这种票今年迄今回报 280%，对比 $SPY 还是 -3%，它们反而会大幅跑赢指数！ 如果数千亿美元的超大规模云 CapEx 沿着供应链往上游流向这些公司，尤其是光子学这些瓶颈： 那么基本面的重估（尤其像 $SNDK 那样，靠提价带来经营利润的案例）会无视宏观环境。
英文原文
Nope. If anything they’ll all strongly outperform the index as seen with $AXTI 280% YTD return vs. $SPY -3% YTD! If hundreds of billions of hyperscaler capex flows upstream to these companies, especially in photonics sectors bottlenecks: The fundamental re-rating (esp. with price hikes -> operational income as seen with $SNDK) will ignore macro climates.
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把 AIXA 比作光子领域的 ASML，承认其受益于资本开支周期，但自己并未持仓。
$AIXA 就像光子领域里的 $ASML，吃到了今年一轮大型资本开支周期。 即便如此，我个人也没有持仓，因为我不太喜欢半导体供应链里的设备卖家。 它们确实能明显受益，但大多数最大的受益者其实是那些可能借瓶颈抬价的公司，比如 $SNDK。 而在当前周期里，更像是 $LITE 这种 EML，或者像 $AXTI 这样的基板材料受益者。哪怕现在价格还没怎么上调。
英文原文
$AIXA is like the $ASML for photonics and captures a large capex cycle this year. Even so, I personally don't have positions, since I'm not a fan of equipment sellers in semi supply chains. That benefit materially, but most of the largest beneficiaries are the likely bottleneck price-hikers of the world as seen with $SNDK. And in current cycles that's EML like $LITE or substrates like $AXTI. Even though there haven't been much price hikes yet.
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回顾自己通过光子和存储超级周期跑赢指数的经历。
我可能只是比指数多跑赢了一点点？ 其实就只是搭上了从 $AXTI 到 $SNDK 的光子和存储超级周期。 现在这样做也只是为了好玩。 https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
英文原文
I may have outperformed the index just a tiny bit? It’s as simple as riding the Photonics and Memory Supercycles from $AXTI to $SNDK. Just doing this for fun now. https://t.co/VkzcDTIE85
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提出关键问题是 2028 年光子是否会成为大事，如果是，AXTI 可能会成为重大瓶颈。
@gahhhbor 更好的问题应该是……到 2028 年，光子会不会成为一件大事？ 如果会，那 $AXTI 很可能会成为一个类似 $SNDK 的重大瓶颈，而我个人会继续持有。 https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
英文原文
@gahhhbor Better question to ask is.. is photonics going to be a major thing in 2028? If it is, $AXTI is probably going to be a major $SNDK like bottleneck, and I’m personally holding. https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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批评很多人事后改口看多，认为市场里绝大多数内容都只是噪音。
很多人把自己的仓位都投降掉了，这真的很让人火大。 因为现在 X 上那些到处发 doompost 的人，突然又都装作自己很看多 $MU 或 $EWY。 或者那些根本不懂自己在说什么的银行分析师。 这个地方 99.9% 的人之前都在看空，还发过诸如： - “KOPSI 要崩了” - “内存图表看起来像白银？” 或者类似： “氦气 / LNG / 石油要一路往下” 但现在 $SNDK 和存储股都接近历史高点（或者已经到了），大家又都假装自己从一开始就看多。 X 上绝大多数内容都只是极度噪音。
英文原文
It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions. Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY. Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about. 99.9% of this place was bearish and posted: - “KOPSI Crash” - “Memory charts look like Silver?” Or something along the lines of “Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down. But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long. The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.
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旺宏(2337)年初涨201%超越$AXTI，因填补三星/Hynix离去的legacy NAND市场获益。
哇哦，旺宏(2337)就这么轻松超越了 $AXTI？ 201.04% 对比 188% 的年初至今收益率，太难受了。 旺宏看起来就像是台湾的小 $SNDK，市值 $78.9 亿... 它们是全球最大的 NOR Flash memory、SLC/MLC NAND 供应商。 所以当三星、SK Hynix 和美光离开传统制程节点后，它们可以自由提价。
英文原文
Woah, Macronix (TPE: 2337) is out here casually outperforming $AXTI? 201.04% vs. 188% Year to Date return, feels bad. Macronix does look like the mini $SNDK of Taiwan at a $7.89B MC... They're the world’s largest suppliers of NOR flash memory, SLC/MLC NAND. So they get free price-hike reign now off legacy nodes that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron left behind.
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双寡头把控原料和基材瓶颈，小市值光电子公司具重估潜力。
这取决于你认为光电子市场规模有多大，以及你认为超大规模运营商会投入多少价值来保障供应链安全。如果看看$SNDK和NAND，我们已经见识过类似的情况。你越往产业链下游走，比如激光器或成品光收发器，通常收入和利润率都更高。但如果你是双寡头，且在原料和基材两方面都占据着一个关键瓶颈，那么我认为一家$2B的公司在AI以光电子技术扩展的未来有很大的重新估值空间。
英文原文
Depends how big you think photonics is and how much value you think hyperscalers would place to secure their supply chain. If you look at $SNDK and NAND, we’ve already seen what it’s like. The more downstream you go like lasers or finished transceivers typically have higher revenue/margins. But if you’re a duopoly and hold a major chokepoint around both feedstock and substrates, I think there’s a lot of room for rerating a $2B company when the future of AI is scaled with photonics.
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强调独立研究的重要性，指出恐惧驱动短期价格，但经营收入驱动长期价格。
提醒一下：当整个社区都在恐慌发帖讨论内存股名字的时候。从$EWY（SK Hynix、Samsung）、$MU和$SNDK。在伊朗冲突初期。说“Kospi和内存股会因氦气或LNG下跌30-40%”。我是全程保持看多的少数分析师之一。因为我实际上做了研究来支持我关于LNG、原油和氦气几乎没有实质性影响的观点。伊朗冲突仍在进行中，关于潜在油价飙升仍有很多未知因素：但恐惧和煽动性标题驱动短期价格。经营收入驱动长期价格。只要知道从方向上看，内存对AI建设至关重要。美国不会让他们的AI建设因中东冲突而停滞，并在AI——这个历史上最变革性的技术——上失去对中国的优势。
英文原文
Just a reminder: While the entire community was doomposting about memory names. From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK. during the initial Iran conflict. Sayin “Kospi and memory names would drop 30-40% because of Helium or LNG.” I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time. As I actually did the research to back up my claims about little material disruption of LNG, Crude, and Helium. The Iran conflict is still ongoing, and there’s a lot of unknowns still regarding potential oil spikes: But fear and sensational headlines drive short term prices. Operating income drives long term prices. Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout. United Stares wont let their buildout stall, and lose China, in AI - the most transformative technology in history. Over a Middle East conflict.
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回顾被恐慌卖掉内存股的人，强调 NAND、DRAM 涨价和利润才是决定长期走势的关键。
想象一下那些卖掉自己内存仓位的人。 因为“氦气”就把 SK 海力士、Sandisk 和 Micron 卖掉？ SK 海力士：1 日 +7.03% $SNDK：1 周 +31.75% $MU：1 周 +19.66% 三星：1 日 +2.83% 看看 NAND、DRAM 的涨价，那些都远远高于预期。 而且公司也明确说没有任何实质性影响。 媒体 doompost 和恐慌盘会驱动短期价格。 但经营利润决定长期股价。
英文原文
Imagine all the people who sold their memory positions. From SK Hynix, Sandisk, and Micron because of “Helium”? Sk Hynix: +7.03% 1D $SNDK: +31.75% 1W $MU: +19.66% 1W Samsung: +2.83% 1D Look at NAND, DRAM hikes, which were all way beyond estimates. As well as company statements that there was zero material effect. Media doomposters and panic sellers. drives short term prices. Operating profit drives long stock prices.
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内存价格预计涨至2028年，AI结构性需求支撑利润，即使利润率下降行业仍被看好
内存周期。 大概会像这张图一样吗？ 以SK Hynix、$SNDK、三星、$MU等为例： -> 价格持续上涨至2028年 -> 需求增长具有持久性 -> 2028年后价格回落 -> 产能增加 * 需求增加 * 利润率下降 = 利润依然可观。 例如： 2026年Q1：DRAM、NAND价格上涨 - NAND价格环比上涨100%+，DRAM上涨70%+。 2026年Q2：DRAM NAND价格上涨 - 三星Q2 NAND价格再次上涨100%+，DRAM上涨。 Q3至2028年价格持续上涨。 1. 反方观点：「在2027年下半年没有任何情景会让内存价格回调，考虑到超大规模云厂商的采购意愿丝毫未减」 2. 英特尔CEO：「2028年前内存短缺不会缓解」。 然而人们误解了的是： -> 内存需求是结构性的，由AI驱动。 -> 但价格不是（结构性的）。 2026年极端内存短缺情况下，我们很可能持续看到价格上涨。 但价格会在2028年开始下跌。人们混淆的是： -> AI带来的极端需求不会导致价格跌到零。 -> 更多产能不会导致需求突然归零。 供给增加 * 价格 * 需求增加 * 更低运营利润率 = 利润依然可观。 运营利润不会像现在这样环比增长10000%+。 但如果SK Hynix通过产能增加、利润率下降但保持稳定运营利润，年度运营收入约1000亿美元以上，市值4000亿美元： 对比1000亿 -> 2200亿 -> 900亿 -> 1200亿的模式。 那就看起来被低估了。 我不认为会出现末日派所预测的1000亿->1800亿（2027年）->100亿的情况，即因需求下滑（如智能手机）和利润率下滑而亏损运营。 主要需要关注两件事：软件/内存使用效率是否变得极高，或者超大规模云厂商资本支出突然消失（AI不再是回事）。 GPU训练/推理也是同样的逻辑。 但我最主要关注的是超大规模云厂商资本支出预测，作为第一指标。不是断章取义地从三星高管那里摘取几句话来预测两年后的运营收入。 AI从根本上改变了「商品」内存的本质，类似于2023年的GPU。
英文原文
The Memory Cycle. Is probably going to look like this chart? With SK Hynix, $SNDK, Samsung, $MU and others: -> Price Hikes until 2028 -> Demand Increase Permanent -> Price Decreases After 2028 -> Increased Capacity * Increased Demand * lower margin = High Profit Anyway. For example: 2026 Q1: DRAM, NAND Price Hikes - NAND prices 100%+ Q/Q, DRAM up 70%+. 2026: Q2: DRAM NAND Price Hikes - Samsung hikes Q2 NAND prices 100%+ Again, DRAM up. Q3 -> 2028 Price Hikes. 1. Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" 2. Intel CEO: "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". However what people misunderstand: -> Memory Demand Is Structural with AI. -> Prices are not. We'll likely keep seeing price hikes with the extreme memory shortage in 2026. But prices start to fall in 2028. What people conflate is: -> Extreme demand for AI will not cause prices to go to 0. -> More capacity will not cause demand to suddenly go to 0. More Supply * Price * More Demand * lower operating margin = more profit anyway. Operating income will not be 10000%+ Q/Q like now. But if SK Hynix is producing a more steady ~$100B+ operating income Y/Y at a $400B MC from increased capacity but lower margin: Compared to $100B -> $220B -> $90B -> $120B. Then that itself looks undervalued. I don't see a world where it ends up being $100B-> $180B (2027) -> $10B what doomposters are projecting, where they operate at a loss from both demand downturn (eg. smartphones) and margin downturn. The main two things is to look out for is if software/memory usage gets extremely, extremely efficient or hyperscaler capex suddenly disappears (AI is no longer a thing). Same could be said around GPUs for training/inference. But, I would mainly be looking out for hyperscaler capex projections as the #1 indicator. Not random out of context quotes taken from Samsung executives to signal operating income two years out. AI has fundamentally changed what the "commodity" memory is, similar to GPUs back in 2023.
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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看好内存价格和相关公司利润率
Counterpoint 的内存价格研究： “没有任何情景会让内存价格在 2027 年下半年回调，因为超大规模云厂商的采购意愿依然没有松动。” 这说的是 $SNDK、$MU、$EWY（SK 海力士、三星）以及其他内存公司。 他们指出： 三星、SK 海力士、美光、长鑫存储和南亚科的 DRAM 产量预计今年增长 26%，NAND 增长 24%。 但超大规模云厂商的需求在可预见的未来大概率会远超供给。 这和 $INTC CEO 说的“内存短缺要到 2028 年才会缓解”很像。 而且 NAND 价格在一季度已经上涨了 100%+，三星二季度还在继续上调 NAND 价格。 DRAM 价格也在不断提价。 内存厂商运营利润率的爆发式提升，可能会压过任何宏观因素。
英文原文
Memory Price Market Research from Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" In regards to $SNDK, $MU, $EWY (Sk Hynix, Samsung), and other memory names. They commented: DRAM output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, with NAND up 24%. But hyperscaler demand will likely far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future. This mirrors $INTC CEO's comments about "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". With NAND prices Q1 increasing 100% + Samsung hiking NAND prices Q2. And DRAM prices going through constant price hikes. The explosive increase in operating margins from memory makers across the board are poised to outweigh any macro.
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用 Cramer 反向指标串起一串当日强势股
Jim Cramer：“今天就是没法赚钱的一天。” 当天： $AXTI：+15.08% $AAOI：+11.5% $HIMS：+6.05% $LITE：+7.06% $SNDK：+6.12% $IQE：+19.08% SK 海力士：+4.38% $MU：+4.65% $COHR：+4.86% 这和前一个帖子里周日提到的“150-200 美元原油”呼应上了。 Cramer 指标又一次显灵了。
英文原文
Jim Cramer: “Just impossible Day to Make Money”. Today: $AXTI: +15.08% $AAOI: +11.5% $HIMS: +6.05% $LITE: +7.06% $SNDK: +6.12% $IQE: +19.08% SK Hynix: 4.38% $MU: +4.65% $COHR: +4.86% This is following the previous post about “$150-200” Oil on Sunday. The Cramer indicator strikes again.
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NAND供应紧缺致价格飙升，内存厂商将大幅受益。
NAND 价格现已失控飙升。 像 $SNDK、$MU、三星、SK 海力士这样的内存公司，将从缺乏弹性的供应和最近的 NAND 价格上涨中获益最多。 据 Digitimes 报道，群联电子(Phison)CEO 表示： “随着供应收紧，NAND 闪存价格飙升，部分制造商的报价一夜之间上涨高达 50%。” 此前有报道称，三星已将第二季度 NAND 价格翻倍。 可用库存正变得几乎不存在，超大规模云服务商和其他公司愿意不惜一切代价以确保获得配额。
英文原文
NAND prices have now spiraled out of control. Memory companies like $SNDK, $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix stand to benefit the most from inelastic supply and recent NAND price hikes. According to Phison's CEO per Digitimes: "NAND flash prices have surged amid tightening supply, with some manufacturers raising quotations by as much as 50% overnight" This follows reports this week that Samsung has just doubled NAND prices for Q2. Available inventory is becoming non-existent, with hyperscalers and companies willing to pay anything to secure allocation.
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最大回报源于亚洲供应链瓶颈及美系利基股，而非英伟达。
@pepemoonboy 经常看到这张图，所以花了很多时间做了一张新的！ 但这确实是事实，最大的回报大多来自亚洲的随机瓶颈环节，如日东纺(Nittobo)、宏碁(Macronix)和南亚玻璃(Nanya Glass)，以及美国玩家如 $SNDK 和 $LITE，而不是 $NVDA。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Kept seeing this image pop up a lot so spent a lot of time to make a new one! But it's genuinely true though, most of largest returns came from random bottlenecks in Asia like Nittobo, Macronix, and Nanya Glass to US players like $SNDK and $LITE instead of $NVDA.
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真正超额收益来自控制铲子供应商所需的高价材料瓶颈。
当市场说“当所有人都去挖金矿时，卖出铲子”时，他们错了。为什么？真正的超额收益来自：对铲子供应商进行瓶颈控制。从$AXTI和$LITE的光子学衬底/EML激光器，到$SNDK向SK海力士供应NAND/DRAM，这些都是瓶颈环节。它们最终比那些聚集在$NVDA等铲子供应商周围的投资者更赚钱。这句谚语应该是：“当所有人都去挖金矿时，通过铲子供应商需要的高价材料来获利”。
英文原文
Markets have got it wrong when they say: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Sell Shovels" You know why? The real alpha comes from: Bottlenecking the Shovel Sellers. Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE. to $SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA. The saying should go: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Profit off the Materials at jacked up prices that the Shovel Sellers need to Sell the Shovels".
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三星NAND涨价远超预期，利好存储板块。
据《证券日报》报道，“三星电子(005930)据报道将在第二季度将其NAND闪存(NAND Flash)供应价格翻倍”。 三星（以及可能跟随的$SNDK和SK海力士）的NAND涨价幅度几乎是某些分析师预期的20倍，是其他分析师预期的2-4倍。 根据法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师3月的笔记，他们预测NAND在Q2环比增长5%。 据ITJungle：“行业分析师预计Q2较Q1上涨20%至50%，Q3上涨5%至15%，Q4上涨5%至10%。” 麦格理(Macquarie)对SK海力士约1905亿美元营业利润的激进预测开始看起来更有道理了。 这对存储公司的影响是惊人的。
英文原文
"Samsung Electronics (005930) will reportedly double its NAND Flash supply price in the second quarter" - Sedaily The price hike of NAND from Samsung (and likely $SNDK + SK Hynix following) is almost 20 times some analyst expectations and 2-4X others. Per BNP Paribas Analyst note in March, they projected for NAND: a 5% Q/Q increase in CQ2 Per ITJungle: "The industry analysts have Q2 up over Q1 in a range of 20 percent to 50 percent, and Q3 at 5 percent to 15 percent, with Q4 up 5 percent to 10 percent" Macquarie's wild SK Hynix ~$190.5 billion operating income projections is starting to look a little more reasonable. The implications for memory companies is crazy.
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驳斥彭博社误报出口管制草案引发半导体供应链恐慌性抛售。
彭博社刚刚引发了半导体市场的崩盘。凭记忆，受影响的标的从 $EWY 和 $SNDK 到 $NVDA 和 $TSM 都有。起因是假新闻。这简直是路透社关键矿产误导性报道的2.0版本。肯定得有人为此负责？
英文原文
Bloomberg just caused a semiconductor market crash. From memory names in $EWY and $SNDK to $NVDA and $TSM. Off fake news. This is Reuters critical minerals misleading reporting v2. Certainly someone needs to be held accountable? https://t.co/YaBNpl8nFB
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韩国LNG进口多元化且多为长协，能源成本可转嫁，基本面未受地缘政治实质影响。
如果霍尔木兹海峡(Hormuz)关闭，韩国80%的液化天然气(LNG)进口似乎不受影响。$EWY 中的SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星自2022年以来已实现高度多元化。人们引用数据称，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的LNG中约59%流向四个亚洲国家：韩国、日本、中国和印度。这看起来是个吓人的数字，但这只是他们总进口量的一小部分。大约五分之四的进口已通过非霍尔木兹路线到达：澳大利亚(24.6%)、美国(12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚(~20%)和俄罗斯/萨哈林(~4.6%)。此外，2024年约82%的进口为长期合同，而非现货。因此，任何因价格飙升导致的成本上涨将得到很大程度的缓冲。即使成本上升，也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。看来韩国从2022年的教训中吸取了经验，实现了来源多元化并增加了长期定价合同。
英文原文
If the Hormuz were closed, it looks like 80% of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. And looks like $EWY SK Hynix and Samsung are largely diversified since 2022. People are quoting majority of all LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (~59%) goes to just four Asian countries: South Korea, Japan, China, and India. Looks like a scary number, but that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Roughly four-fifths of imports already arrive via Hormuz-free routes: Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot. So any hiked rates for new price hikes would be largely insulated. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. Looks like South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources + added long term pricing contracts.
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反驳KOSPI恐慌，指出SK海力士基本面强劲，当前为情绪性去杠杆。
感觉大家都在唱衰韩国综合指数(KOSPI)，说： > “看图表，它不可能一直这样涨！” > 存储芯片是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 已收到3年预购订单） > $EWY 基本上就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，并不代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾加权指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨一样。 > 存储需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争而消失，但成本确实会变高。 > 原油/LNG带来的能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，而不是被运营支出(opex)吸收。 这看起来更像是恐慌性抛售和去杠杆（3倍和10倍ETF今天可能已被清零），而非基本面恶化（虽有轻微利空，但不足以导致-30%跌幅）。 SK海力士期货现在交易在3000亿-4000亿美元市值区间。 如果微软(MS)和更新的分析师预测稍微准确一点，SK海力士的营业利润例如约为3000亿美元。 如果存储价格下跌，到2028年他们将拥有过多的现金作为缓冲。（甚至还没考虑需求变得结构性强劲）。 这看起来像是另一次DeepSeek-英伟达式的恐慌性抛售，尤其是最近nand/dram价格再次上涨。更多是关于择时抄底的问题。 在这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的头条新闻抛售更重要。
英文原文
Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
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伊朗袭击致LNG暴涨引发韩股暴跌，但AI需求强劲使三星/SK海力士可转嫁成本，视为买入机会。
关于 $EWY / KOSPI 暴跌以及这是否是三星/SK海力士的买入机会的思考： 这看起来是一个明确的买入机会。 尤其是因为投资者误解了2026年并非2022年（俄乌冲突）的局面。AI从根本上改变了内存需求，与2022年消费电子低迷时期不同，当时三星/SK海力士不得不自行承担运营支出(OPEX)。 韩国历史上最大单日跌幅的主要催化剂是伊朗无人机袭击卡塔尔能源公司(Ras Laffan)综合体。 卡塔尔约占全球液化天然气(LNG)供应的~20%。 结果： -> 荷兰TTF（欧洲天然气）：+46% -> 亚洲现货LNG：+39% -> 美国天然气：+4.16%（正常） LNG飙升是下跌的催化剂，因为韩国严重依赖进口LNG，暴露度极高。 出于对通胀性能源冲击的恐惧，投资者激进抛售韩国科技股，叠加10倍杠杆三星/SK海力士的去杠杆效应。 导致： -> 三星电子下跌9.79%。 -> SK海力士股价暴跌11.12%。 -> $EWY（韩国期货）今日下跌14.49%。 人们担心重演2022年俄乌战争导致LNG价格上涨，韩国电力公社(KEPCO)停止吸收亏损后，韩国工业电价上涨约70%。 仅2022年，三星国内设施就消耗了约28,000 GWh的电力。 电价上涨使三星年度运营支出(OPEX)增加约2万亿韩元（超过14亿美元），SK海力士增加超过1万亿韩元。 这种前所未有的运营支出激增发生在最糟糕的时机。 2022年底，半导体行业进入残酷的周期性低迷。后疫情时代PC和智能手机需求暴跌，导致DRAM和NAND闪存严重供过于求。 然而，2026年完全不同： 与2022年低迷期面临能源成本上升相比： AI对内存的需求完全史无前例。27日有报道称三星/SK海力士再次上调DRAM价格。 $SNDK的NAND需求如此之高，以至于产能分配需要提前3年预订。 需求看不到尽头，直到2028年都没有缓解迹象。 相比之下，2022年笔记本电脑和智能手机的消费端已经面临低迷，内存制造商无法转嫁成本（并承担了巨额OPEX账单）。这导致了上次的大幅修正。 由于2026年全球AI芯片短缺如此严重，他们将无缝地将高昂的公用事业账单转嫁给供应链下游。 由于供应严重受限，三星和SK海力士主导市场条款。大型科技超大规模云服务商（微软、Meta、Google、Amazon）陷入AI军备竞赛。他们目前对价格高度不敏感，优先考虑确保供应量而非讨价还价。 因此，这看起来是一个明确的买入机会，尤其是鉴于预测范围： 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对三星： 2026年：~1820亿美元 vs. ~2108亿美元 2027年：~2351亿美元 vs. ~3337亿美元 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对SK海力士： 2026年：~1329亿美元 vs. ~1905亿美元 2027年：~1670亿美元 vs. ~3128亿美元 此次抛售看起来像是出于对2022年俄乌冲突的恐惧以及10倍杠杆工具带来的极端杠杆进行的即时去风险化。 但与2022年不同，当时笔记本电脑和消费需求已经低迷，LNG飙升导致三星/SK海力士买单： 这次成本转嫁给了超大规模云服务商，因为需求太高。 人们总是将KOSPI比作白银，但区别在于前者拥有惊人的运营收入，在牛市情景下，SK海力士等公司两年的收入 alone 就会超过其市值。 三星/SK海力士的下跌看起来是一个明确的买入机会，因为他们的运营收入可能会轻松超越任何短期波动。
英文原文
Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix: This looks like a clear buying opportunity. Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts. AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs. The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex. Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply. Results: -> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46% -> Asian Spot LNG: + 39% -> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine) The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG. Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix. Sending -> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%. -> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%. and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today. Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses. In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity. The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix. This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time. In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash. However, 2026 is completely different: Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn: AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix. Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance. There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028. Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time. Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain. Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling. As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from: Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments. But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill: This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high. People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
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博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me
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NAND价格暴涨，SanDisk要求预付锁定供应。
对于 $SNDK 来说，这可能只是宏观因素，尤其是如果要求预付未来三年的款项的话 lol “自2025年下半年以来，NAND 合约价格已多轮翻倍，据报道过去六个月累计涨幅高达500%。此前，美国 NAND 制造商 SanDisk 要求下游客户全额预付以锁定未来一到三年的供应。”
英文原文
Might just be macro for $SNDK especially if there’s prepayment for three years ahead lol “Since the second half of 2025, NAND contract prices have doubled in multiple rounds, with cumulative increases reportedly reaching as high as 500% over the past six months. Earlier, U.S.-based NAND manufacturer SanDisk required downstream customers to prepay in full to secure supply for the next one to three years”
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Macronix 是 NOR Flash 最纯标的，需更陡峭涨幅才能重现 SNDK 走势。
我之前讨论过的 Macronix，主要涉及 NOR Flash（Nor 闪存）。由于它占据 30-35% 的市场份额，且市值（MC）仅为 67 亿美元，远低于其他竞争对手的 150 亿美元以上，因此它是该板块中最纯粹的标的。目前的涨幅相当温和，若要重现 $SNDK 的走势，其涨幅需要陡峭得多。
英文原文
Macronix I've talked about earlier on for NOR Flash. It's probably the most pure play out of the bunch since it's 30-35% of the market with a smaller MC of $6.7B compared to the others at $15B+ The hikes have been pretty modest so far, for it to pull a $SNDK, it will need to be a lot steeper.
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看好$AAOI十倍增长潜力，视其为光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 对我来说感觉是必须配置的共封装光学(CPO)敞口。 他们的财报简直像黑魔法一样神奇。 $LITE（市值500亿美元）：2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元 $AAOI（市值56亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 他们的增长预测在2026年实际上已经超越了 $LITE。 我没开玩笑。 $AAOI 的毛利率约为40%，$LITE 凭借光电路交换(OCS)垄断地位可能达到45%。 “长期毛利率目标约为40%。” 别误会，$LITE 是一只极佳的长线股，因为其在 $GOOGL TPU 和 Google 资本支出中占据8-12%的物料清单(BOM)份额... 但 $AAOI 的营收顶层增长接近去年营收的10倍，这简直不可思议。 如果你用草稿纸数学模型计算： “管理层预测，到2027年第二季度，每月光收发器营收潜力达3.78亿美元” ~ 43亿美元目标，40%毛利率（自产），17.2亿美元毛利润，也许~6亿美元资本支出/运营支出： 净利润 ~8.96亿美元。 远期市盈率（基于2027年净利润）：~6.4倍远期市盈率，对应约900%的同比增长。 而且如果你看光子学产能爬坡，预计向2030年呈指数级增长。 从他们的管理层电话会议来看，超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）很可能买断了所有可用的光收发器产能。 这让我想起早期的 $ALAB 或 $CRDO，所有超大规模云服务商都是他们的客户。 如果你考虑到像 $SNDK 的NAND闪存那样的价格涨幅： +15% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：14.1亿美元净利润 - （4.1倍远期市盈率） +30% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：19.2亿美元净利润 - （3.0倍远期市盈率） 这就是为什么我在 $AAOI 财报后如此兴奋。 甚至还没包括 $AAOI “美国制造”的光收发器供应链，这将使他们获得相对于 $FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、易普联(Eptolink)等海外厂商的溢价。 有点像 $INTC 对 $TSM 或 $MU 对 SK海力士的溢价。 如果他们的预测成真，且价格涨幅使光子学板块在800%+增长下达到3倍市盈率，回报率将是天文数字。 再次强调，这些是管理层预测，执行力才是关键。 无论如何，我将 $AAOI 作为我最大的光子学持仓之一，因为这看起来像黑魔法，也是下一个 $SNDK 的开端。 如果他们能实现预测，非零概率是我们在一年半后看到其达到 $LITE 500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me. Their earnings report is genuinely black magic. $LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026. Not even kidding. Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly. "-term objective of gross margins to around 40%," Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend... But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane. And if you go off napkin math modeling: "By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million" ~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex: Net income ~$896M. Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth. And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030. From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers. Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers. And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK: +15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income - (4.1x forward p/e) +30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income - (3.0x forward p/e) This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings. Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad. Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums. The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments. Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game. Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK. There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.
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$AAOI获三大超大规模客户订单，营收激增，基本面强劲。
$AAOI 看起来像是早期的 $SNDK。而且在未来一年，其市值很可能远超 55 亿美元。 在他们的财报电话会议上： - 3 家超大规模客户（可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT） - “他们希望购买我们能生产的所有 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器”——完全售罄，就像内存一样。 - 营收增长预测超过 900%，达到 43 亿美元，而当前市值仅为 55 亿美元。 光子学领域的需求史无前例，$AAOI 刚刚证实了这一点。 而且他们随时可以开始提价，将毛利率从 40% 进一步提高。当然，存在执行风险…… 但这是一个你应该关注基本面而非图表的例子。
英文原文
$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year. On their earnings call: - 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT) - "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory. - 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC. There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it. And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks... But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.
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指出AAOI为最直接标的且营收预期大增，上游亦有受益者。
@PhotonCap 是的！最直接的标的就是 $AAOI，他们刚刚发布了类似 $SNDK 式的财报，预计营收增长10倍。 但当然，正如你提到的，上游也会有其他未被定价的受益者。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yes! The most direct play is $AAOI, they just dropped a $SNDK-style earnings projecting 10x revenue growth. But of course there's going to be other beneficiaries not priced in too upstream as you mentioned.
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$AAOI若达预期市值或达250-300亿，核心持仓但存执行风险。
财报后，如果$AAOI 达成预期，明年市值有望从$50亿轻松跃升至$250亿-$300亿。它是少数“美国制造”（德克萨斯州Sugarland）的公司，对比竞争对手：$LITE（全球）、$COHR（全球）、$FN（泰国）、$AVGO（全球）、中际旭创（中国）和易飞扬（中国）。因此它可能像$INTC对比$TSM、$MU对比SK海力士那样获得“美国溢价”。但看营收：FY营收4.56亿美元，2027年ARR预计45.36亿美元（~900%+增长）。加上30%-40%的低端利润率预期及超大规模云厂商认证，这太疯狂了。虽有$2.5亿ATM增发，但相比预期只是九牛一毛。这部分极有趣：管理层称800G、1.6T模块的需求和产能到2027年中可能激增近10倍。这对$IQE、Landmark等外延晶圆(epiwafer)公司及更上游的$AXTI也是巨大顺风。$AAOI是2026-2027年的核心持仓，但始终存在交付执行的風險。$250-300亿市值预期听起来超现实，但如果达成$43.5亿ARR（900%+增长），光电子规模化在2028-2029年可能继续扩大，财报确实惊人。
英文原文
After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections. And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of - $LITE (global) - $COHR (global) - $FN (Thai) - $AVGO (global) - Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China). So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix. But from revenue: FY Revenue: $456 million 2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth). Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications. This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection. This part is extremely interesting: -> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027. This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI. $AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver. $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
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$AAOI光模块收入预测惊人，规模扩张幅度远超同行。
天哪，$AAOI … 我只是把话说在前面，他们预计光模块(transceivers)的月收入将达到3.78亿美元。 而其市值(MC)仅为55亿美元。 这简直就是极端规模扩张(extreme scale up)的定义。 虽然利润率不同，但$AAOI的预测实际上将比$LITE下季度的指引高出40%： “鉴于近期客户咨询激增以及需求明显上升，我们认为到2027年年中，100G和400G收入约为9000万美元。800G收入约为2.17亿美元，1.6T收入约为7100万美元。总计，这代表了光模块产品3.78亿美元的月收入。” 这种预测简直荒谬绝伦，自$SNDK财报以来从未见过。
英文原文
Holy $AAOI … Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers. At a $5.5B MC. This is the definition of extreme scale up. Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by 40%: "Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million. 800G revenue will be approximately $217 million and 1.6 terabit revenue will be approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products." Absolutely unholy projections unseen since $SNDK earnings.
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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英伟达财报虽超预期但股价跌，长期看AI加速，应关注云厂商资本开支。
$NVDA 远超预期，预计营收780亿美元，高于预期的720亿美元。 该股在财报发布后下跌4.82%。 这是一个有争议的观点，但在我看来，英伟达的财报是一个部分滞后指标。 最需要关注的是超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出(Capex)预测以及 $TSM 的预测。 市场倾向于认为 $SNDK 等存储芯片、来自 $TSM 的半导体、电力/电网等其他板块，将主要依据上述两项指标涨跌，因为它们代表了整个人工智能(AI)行业。特别是随着从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN 的超大规模云服务商纷纷加速构建其专用集成电路(ASIC)（除英伟达外）。 英伟达大幅超预期仅仅是已实现的确认，表明人工智能交易可能会加速。 短期流动性和做市商(MM)头寸影响周度价格，但长期来看，情况似乎将进一步加速。
英文原文
$NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B. The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings. Controversial opinion but Nvidia earnings is a partially lagging indicator to me. The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections. Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two in specific as they represent the entire AI sector as a whole. Especially as hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN rush out to build their on ASICs (apart from Nvidia) Nvidia beating by a wide margin is just realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate. Short term liquidity and MM positioning affect weekly prices, but long term, things look to accelerate even further.
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分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
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祝贺粉丝收益，指出SNDK和AXTI大涨，认为做空报告将助推行情。
@MrHase0 恭喜年内至今(YTD)收益67%！ 是的，$SNDK 和 $AXTI 大幅跑赢市场，过去两个月涨幅均超过100%。 我认为 Citron Research 近期对 SanDisk 的做空报告只会为这波上涨行情火上浇油。https://t.co/s15nu19khI
英文原文
@MrHase0 Congrats on 67% YTD! Yeah $SNDK and $AXTI have been hard outperforming the market both up over 100%+ in the last two months. I think the recent Citron shorts to Sandisk will just add fuel to the rally. https://t.co/s15nu19khI
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分享412%收益来源，推荐存储、光子等瓶颈板块，强调顺势轮动。
年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分归功于选对了板块，从 Jane Street 算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈环节的多头持仓方面，目前我最看好： 1. 存储 - 三星、SK 海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI，（也许还有山形电机，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC 和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些标的。 但其中大多数甚至全部在短期内上涨了 50-100%+，这放大了交易的整体回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是：跟随资金流向和当前的瓶颈环节进行轮动。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转操作。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点经验！
英文原文
Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
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质疑SNDK仓位风险，认为不确定性将助推反弹。
@ZeroKnowledger_ 他们的 $SNDK 仓位会被核平吗？完全不知道，但这只会为反弹行情火上浇油。
英文原文
@ZeroKnowledger_ They’re going to get their positions nuked on $SNDK? Zero clue, just adds fuel to the fire for the rally
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分析AI供应链中关键海外垄断厂商及美国本土瓶颈环节的投资逻辑。
哈哈 https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7 我重点关注的海外股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博谢(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃基板(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好做多美国供应链，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)，因为它们具备“美国制造”的瓶颈优势及供应链地位。但这些海外公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何投资海外市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博谢这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博谢这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数海外公司。
英文原文
lol https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7
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SNDK 专注于自身业务，无视市场波动。
$SNDK 并不关心市场的其他部分。 https://t.co/vUk3NUnQ0P
英文原文
$SNDK does not concern itself with the rest of the market. https://t.co/vUk3NUnQ0P
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以SNDK为基准复盘表现，发现市场存在错误定价。
谢谢！我相信肯定有人在做，但很难找到。 我一直在以 $SNDK 作为基准，来衡量我的表现与市场最佳表现者之间的差距。 但我发现存在相当多的错误定价！我稍后会发布我正在做的其他一些研究。
英文原文
Thanks! I’m sure there’s some folks out there but hard to find. I’ve been looking at $SNDK as my benchmark to see how im doing vs. the best performer in the market. But there was a decent amount of mispricing I’ve found! I’ll publish some of the other things I’ve been doing later.
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$EWY期权IV被低估，杠杆衍生品将推高波动率，看涨期权或受益。
$EWY 看起来即将变得更加波动。 做市商可能没有正确地将跳跃期权隐含波动率(IV)定价，因为 IV 可能会扩张至 55% 以上。 有两个原因源于未实现（但即将到来）的波动性。 - 10 倍杠杆的三星/SK 海力士通过去中心化金融(DeFi) 已经出现，因为它们开始产能爬坡。 如果规模变得很大，这会在期货（如 $EWY）的清算和对冲上产生大量的未实现波动性。 $EWY 由一半的 SK 海力士/三星组成，而韩国指数本身已经非常波动。 - 三星和 SK 海力士的 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF 即将到来 2026 年 1 月，韩国监管机构正式宣布允许国内 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF。 同样，这增加了未实现的波动性。 但就目前的期权 IV 定价而言，$EWY 的波动幅度相当极端。 如果非要打个比方，它的百分比波动范围肯定大于 $MRVL（IV 为 55-56%，而 $EWY 仍为 41%）。 三星的对应物可能是 $MU（约 70%），SK 海力士更接近 $SNDK（91%），但可能在 70-80% 范围内。 而且……韩国指数基本上就是 SK 海力士和三星。 随着三星/SK 海力士开始从存储超级周期中重新评级，这种波动性可能会成为新常态。但做市商可能仍然在使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH) 模型或基于长期平均值（当时指数完全平坦）的波动率预测投影。 来自 10 倍杠杆衍生品的数量将仅仅为这些个股的对手方和做市商创造更多的对冲/波动性 -> 这会滞后地反映在 $EWY 的定价中。 简而言之：随着做市商未能正确定价 IV 和未实现波动性，$EWY 看涨期权可能会从 Vega 扩张中受益。
英文原文
$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile. Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%. Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility. - 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up. This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large. $EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile. - 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs. Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility. But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing. $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts. If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still). Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range. And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung. This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat) And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY. TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.
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OpenClaw代理部署带动树莓派需求，$RPI有望因收入重估而反转。
市场似乎很喜爱 OpenClaw 树莓派囤货潮。 $RPI 昨日上涨 8.1% 后，今日再涨 19.34%。https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (Raspberry Pi) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货。 大家一直在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果。但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元+的公司，产品大规模购买对其影响微乎其微。 然而，树莓派是一家市值 5.4268 亿美元的公司。收入影响显著。 感觉市场尚未定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管有很多产品提及）。而且最近才开始有人囤积树莓派，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们也有自己的迷你 $NVDA CUDA-light 实用生态系统，人们正在使用。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 交互。 以前人们只是出于爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以收入增长缓慢。但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 代理群集，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行代理营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 完成，所以人们在本地进行（自动化/AI 机器人有服务条款限制，所以公司设置自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨影响 所以这不是一个主要仓位。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 代理，收入应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 收入约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测收入增长接近 14-17%。但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货继续，我们可能会看到收入数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费者板块约占收入的 1/3，但 Openclaw + 变体的新购买无论如何都是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。股价 1 年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。所以这可能是反转的顺风。 此外，OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的代理部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们公开购买树莓派和苹果 Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此收入应从需求增加中受益。
英文原文
Markets seem to love the OpenClaw Raspberry Pi hoarding. $RPI up another 19.34%, from yesterday's 8.1%. https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ
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看好$RPI，因AI智能体部署引发硬件囤货潮，营收有望超预期增长。
有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (树莓派) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货潮。 大家都在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果股票。 但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元以上的巨头。产品的大规模抢购对其影响微乎其微。 然而，$RPI 是一家市值仅 5.4268 亿美元的公司。 营收影响是实质性的。 感觉市场尚未对此定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管产品提及很多）。 而且最近才开始出现树莓派的囤货潮，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们还拥有人们使用的迷你 $NVDA CUDA 轻量级实用生态系统。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 接口。 以前人们只是为了爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以营收增长缓慢。 但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 智能体集群，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行智能体营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 来完成，所以人们选择本地运行（自动化/AI 机器人存在服务条款限制，因此公司搭建自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨的影响 所以这不是一个重仓头寸。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 智能体，营收应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 营收约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测营收增长接近 14-17%。 但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货潮继续，我们可能会看到营收数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费板块约占营收的 1/3，但 Openclaw 及其变体带来的新购买潮仍然是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体已经能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。 股价一年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。 这可能是反转的顺风。 OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的智能体部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们正在公开购买树莓派和 Apple Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此营收应从需求增加中受益。
英文原文
Fun Trade Idea: Long $RPI (Raspberry Pi) Reason: 🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + Hoarding. Everyone has been openly hoarding Apple Mac Minis and were long Apple. But $APPL is already a $3.7T+ company. Product mass-buying won't make a dent. Raspberry Pi, however, is a 542.68M company. The revenue is material. Feels like markets haven't priced this in since I've seen almost 0 mentions about the ticker on X (but many product mentions). And it's only recently that have the hoarding started Raspberry Pis, as they're much cheaper than $500+ Apple products. They also have their mini $NVDA CUDA-light utility ecosystem that people use. So it turns out these extremely cheap $20 or $200 devices are perfect for deploying mass deploying isolated instances. The reason is for OpenClaw orchestration (so they don’t mess up your device) -> interfacing with a central LLM via API. Before people were just buying 1 or 2 for hobby/education purposes, so revenue has slowing. But now Silicon Valley startups and individuals anecdotally appear to be buying tens or hundreds of these things to run concurrent OpenClaw agentic swarms or do stuff like agentic marketing on Reddit and other places. And no, there are many applications that can't be done by spinning up AWS VPS, so people do it locally (there's TOS around automation/AI bots, so companies setup their own servers). That being said main downside risk is that its - partially foundation owned, and they might not hike rates like $SNDK or $MU does, even if there's extreme demand - Subject to memory price hikes like LPDDR4 component so this is not a major position. However, going forward, revenue should increase due to people buying tens or hundreds of these things for running AI agents. Balance sheet also looks clean with low downside risk: - ~$280M - $300M revenue - ~$75M+ Gross Profit - ~25% Gross Margin - Net income: ~$10M - $15M - Net Cash: $28M Analysts currently project revenue growth closer to 14–17%. But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues. Consumer segments are roughly 1/3rd of revenue but the newfound buying from Openclaw + variants is a new cataylst nevertheless for re-rating. Especially now that Picoclaw and compressed OpenClaw variants are now able to be run on $20 Raspberry Pis instead of just the Raspberry Pi 5’s. But seems like people just forgot Raspberry PI was a publicly stock as well. The stock price is down 56% 1Y to 542.68M euro MC to an all time low. So this might be that tailwind for a reversal. There's also a non-zero chance OpenClaw is a long term catalyst for Raspberry Pi based, agentic deployments. TLDR: People are openly buying Raspberry Pis and Apple Mac Minis for Openclaw/Picoclaw, so revenue should benefit from increased demand.
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群联CEO驳斥中国存储倾销论，看好AI存储结构性需求。
群联电子(Phison) CEO 采访中的一个有趣评论。针对中国存储厂商（长江存储 YMTC 和长鑫存储 CXMT）将倾销市场的谣言，CEO 潘汉德表示：“说这话的人是在说梦话”。$SNDK、$MU 以及存储板块似乎看不到供应短缺的迹象。AI 对存储的需求看起来是结构性的且呈指数级增长。
英文原文
Interesting comment from Phison's CEO interview was this. When addressing the rumor that Chinese memory makers (YMTC and CXMT) will flood the market: Pua says: "The people saying that are talking in their sleep/dreaming". $SNDK, $MU, and the memory trade appear to have no shortage in sight. The memory demand for AI looks structural and exponentially growing.
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建议通过投资AI股票及关注BOM支出（存储、光子学）来对冲失业风险。
看到人们因人工智能(AI)替代而失业，确实令人难过。现在人们唯一能做的就是顺势而为，否则就会被抛下。 对此最大的对冲手段是投资AI股票，并关注物料清单(BOM)支出。 最大的是存储芯片，如 $MU 或 $SNDK。从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的光子学(Photonics)组件在BOM中也占据相当比重。
英文原文
Yeah pretty sad to see people get laid off from AI displacement. So only thing people can do now is ride the wave or get left behind. Biggest hedge against this is AI equities and looking into BOM spend. Biggest is memory like $MU or $SNDK. Photonics from $LITE to $AAOI command a decent amount of BOM.
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存储需求结构性短缺，推理瓶颈在存储，中国产能无外溢。
群联电子(Phison) CEO关于存储与投资框架的访谈摘要： “收过路费者”（Toll Collectors）： - 美光(Micron) ($MU) - SK海力士(000660.KS) - 三星电子 - 西部数据(Western Digital) ($WDC) - $SNDK T2层级： - $MRVL - $SIMO - 群联电子(Phison Electronics) 随着AI向边缘端迁移，设计连接存储与计算逻辑/软件控制器的公司将捕获巨大价值。 T3层级： - 纯存储(Pure Storage) ($PSTG) - NetApp ($NTAP) - 希捷(Seagate) ($STX) 随着Vera Rubin推理服务器推出，键值缓存(KV Cache)和数据生成的爆发将触发针对数据中心存储密度和高容量企业级固态硬盘(Enterprise SSDs)的硬件升级周期。 有趣的是：$EBAY（翻新电子产品）可能成为受益者。 - 做空/规避低毛利消费硬件。 - 做空/规避未对冲的汽车/IoT制造商。 主要Alpha观点： - “三年预付”现金流：存储晶圆厂要求3年现金预付款以保障供应。 - 推理瓶颈在于存储而非GPU：单批次1000万台$NVDA Vera Rubin平台需每台20+TB SSD，仅此项就将消耗去年全球NAND产能的20%。 - “中国供应过剩”看空论调已死： Pan完全驳斥了关于长江存储(YMTC)和长鑫存储(CXMT)的观点。中国内部AI需求巨大，将瞬间消化100%国内产量。不会有廉价中国存储流入全球市场来拯救西方硬件OEM。 访谈TLDR： 存储需求是结构性的。供应端无结束迹象。$INTC CEO上月已确认此点。
英文原文
TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework: "Toll Collectors": - Micron ( $MU ) - SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Samsung Electronics, - Western Digital ( $WDC ) - $SNDK. T2: - $MRVL - $SIMO - Phison Electronics Companies that design the logic/software controllers connecting memory to compute will capture massive value as AI moves to the edge. T3: - Pure Storage ( $PSTG ) - NetApp ( $NTAP ) - Seagate ( $STX) As Vera Rubin inference servers roll out, the explosion in KV Cache and data generation will trigger a massive hardware upgrade cycle specifically focused on data center storage density and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs. Hilariously: $EBAY (refurbished electronics), might be a beneficiary. - Short / Avoid Low-Margin Consumer Hardware. - Short / Avoid Unhedged Auto/IoT Makers Main alpha points: - The "3-Year Prepayment" Cash Flow. Memory foundries are demanding 3 years of cash prepayments to guarantee supply. - The Inference Bottleneck is Storage, Not GPUs. A single 10-million-unit run of $NVDA Vera Rubin platform requires 20+TB of SSD per unit, which alone would consume 20% of last year's global NAND capacity. - The "Chinese Supply Glut" Bear Thesis is Dead: Pan entirely dismisses this point around YMTC and CXMT. China’s internal AI demand is so massive that it will instantly swallow 100% of its domestic production. No cheap Chinese memory will leak into the global market to rescue western hardware OEMs. TLDR from the interview: Memory demand is structural. No supply end in sight. $INTC CEO confirmed this last month.
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指出存储芯片进入新囤货周期，关注WDC等标的。
@elicapitalgroup 很棒的公司。但这看起来实际上是一个新囤货周期的开始，我之前没考虑到 $WDC、$STX 或 $SNDK。
英文原文
@elicapitalgroup Great companies. But it's actually appears to be the start of a new hoarding cycle, wasn't thinking about $WDC, $STX, or $SNDK.
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AI需求致SSD囤货潮，$SNDK营收预期或翻三倍但股价未动
现在有一个非常滑稽的硬件囤货周期，比如 $SNDK 的固态硬盘(SSD)。大家都在买这个产品，但没人买它的股票（股价完全没动）。分析师此前预测没有增长，但来自人工智能(AI)需求的囤货可能会让营收预期翻三倍。想知道有人能猜到吗？
英文原文
There's a hilarious hardware hoarding cycle right now like $SNDK SSDs. Everyone is buying this, but not the stock (hasn't moved at all). Analysts were projecting no growth, but hoarding from AI demand likely triples revenue estimates. Wondering if anyone can guess?
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微软AI需求推高存储波动预期，远期隐含波动率或存在定价偏差。
我的假设是MMS使用了GARCH模型或基于长期平均值的波动率预测。韩国指数在过去10-20年间处于区间震荡。如果回顾往年，模型通常假设波动率在2年内会均值回归。但如果我们看微软对三星/SK海力士陡峭的营业利润预测，加上$MU/$SNDK等存储芯片固有的波动性，看涨期权将从波动率扩张中受益。因此，在我看来，远期隐含波动率存在定价偏差。
英文原文
My assumption is MMS used garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages. Korean indexes were range bound for 10-20 years. If it looks at previous years, models typically assume volatility might re-revert to mean in 2 years. But if we look at MS's steep operating income projections on Samsung/Sk Hynix + inherent volatility with memory like $MU / $SNDK, it looks calls will benefit from vega expsnion. So further out IV looks to be mispriced from my view.
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供应链瓶颈等权重组合周涨12.83%，全红表现惊人。
基于供应链映射的“瓶颈ETF”。 没有一只股票是红色的（下跌）。 等权重组合1周收益：+12.83%。 名单： $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% 我觉得机构是不是直接把上周框架里的这份名单全买了？ 这种表现水平简直太疯狂了。
英文原文
The "Bottleneck ETF" from supply chain mapping. Not a single name red. Equal weighted results 1W: +12.83%. List: $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% I feel like institutions just bought this entire list from last week's framework? This level of performance is pretty crazy.
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建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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反驳媒体观点，指出三星扩产HBM4不影响SanDisk的NAND业务。
如果非要简化来说。三星和 $SNDK 都是“农夫”。三星想种牛油果（HBM4）。他们把一半的农田用来生产更高价的牛油果。$SNDK 表示他们将继续种植玉米（NAND）。三星卖出更多牛油果并不会影响玉米市场。事实上，这甚至可能让玉米更贵。所以媒体说因为三星要做牛油果导致 SanDisk 下跌，这毫无道理。
英文原文
If I had to try and make it simpler. Samsung and $SNDK are both farmers. Samsung wants to farm avocados (HBM4). They dedicate half their farmland to make produce higher priced avocados. $SNDK says they're going to keep growing corn (NAND). Samsung selling more avocados does not affect the corn market. In fact it might even make it more expensive. So all the media saying Sandisk is dropping because Samsung wants to make avocados makes no sense.
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AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。
$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。 这是价格上涨的衍生反映。 有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。 从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。 原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。 前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。 但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。 正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。 我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。 不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。 与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。 但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。
英文原文
$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.
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AXTI具垄断瓶颈地位，若提价将获估值重估。
@platochi @soulbiri1 我完全不知道 $AXTI 会如何发展。他们处于近乎垄断的瓶颈位置，所以如果他们愿意，可以像 $SNDK 和 $MU 那样大幅提价——从而获得巨大的估值重估。这主要取决于他们是否会这样做。
英文原文
@platochi @soulbiri1 I have zero clue how $AXTI plays out. They’re a near-monopoly choke point so if they wanted to they can hike prices like $SNDK and $MU -> be rerated massively. It’s mainly a matter if they’re going to do it or not.
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小资金应集中投资高弹性标的，大资金则需降低风险。
微妙。通常“集中创造财富，分散保全财富”这句老话是成立的。 我大体同意，除非你分散投资的所有标的都是高贝塔且高度相关的。我不确定 $IBIT 的复苏或 $SNDK 哪个涨得更快，所以我选择多匹马下注，并给它们装上 $RKLB 这样的火箭助推器。 但通常来说，是的，投资组合越小，集中度应该越高。如果你有 $10k，也许只选2-3个你最看好的，比如 $SNDK 或 $POET（但显然风险稍大）。 用 $10k 去稳健复利 $GOOGL 或进行分散投资，不会改变你的生活（你打工赚得更多）。但一般来说，随着投资组合规模的增长，你需要承担的风险就越小。
英文原文
Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true. I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them. But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky). Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.
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澄清未称SNDK为最弱，指出其高波动但远期估值低、增长强劲。
@yepyepmf 我什么时候说过 $SNDK 是最薄弱环节了？ 它只是这群公司里波动性最大的内存厂商，但 2027 年的远期市盈率(Forward P/E)看起来很低，所以增长轨迹看起来相当夸张。 https://t.co/OFhiqtOH4O
英文原文
@yepyepmf Where did I ever say $SNDK was the weakest link? It’s just the most volatile memory company out the bunch but forward p/e for 2027 looks low, so the growth trajectory looks hilarious. https://t.co/OFhiqtOH4O
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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对比三星与SK海力士，前者更均衡，后者是纯内存标的。
@ChiefLiquidity 三星优于SK海力士，因为三星的业务更多元化。话虽如此，如果你想要像$SNDK那样的纯内存（Memory）上行收益，SK海力士是最佳选择。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity Samsung over SK Hynix since they’re a tad more diversified. That being said if you want pure play memory upside like $SNDK then SK Hynix is best
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梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈，看好存储、光子及台积电，指出中游为定价关键。
以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR（太长不看版）及其映射到投资框架的内容： HBM（高带宽内存）： HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星，SK 海力士，$MU HBF（高带宽闪存）- $SNDK，Kioxia Base Die（基础晶圆）- $TSM，三星（内部） CPO（共封装光学）/光子学： 玻璃基板：$GLW，$INTC，Ibiden 光学：$LITE，$AVGO，$COHR，$MRVL 电力传输： 电压：$MPWR，$VICR 散热：$VRT，$NVT，$MOD 电网：$ETN，$SBGSY SiC/GaN（碳化硅/氮化镓）：$ON，$IFNNY 机架：$APH N2 产能： $TSM，$AMD（数据中心先行者），$QLCM，联发科，$NVDA 先进封装： 良率：$CAMT，$ONTO，$KLAC OSATs（外包半导体组装与测试）：$AMKR $BESIY，Disco Semivision 的总结： 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新（SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构）” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的，我对上述的存储/光子学领域（如 SK 海力士/三星，$SNDK，$MU，$LITE）以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸，比如 $AXTI（磷化铟前驱体），但中游玩家是瓶颈所在，并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解，我添加了相关公司的评论。
英文原文
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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加密资产大幅回调后机构正在买入，建议等待波动结束并顺势反弹。
我一直参与内存/AI交易，比如 $MU、$SNDK。但像这样的机会并不常见。 所有加密货币相关标的都已重置： 比特币 - 从 $125k 跌至 $70K 以太坊 - 从 $4k 跌至 $2.05K Solana - 从 $233 跌至 $88 $COIN 从 $415 跌至 $162 $CRCL 从 $240 跌至 $56 $GLXY 从 $40 跌至 $19 $ETOR 从 $68 跌至 $26 $MSTR 从 $434 跌至 $132 如果人们认为比特币会回到 $30K，我不知道该说什么。我亲眼看到的每家机构在清算清洗后都在现在买入。 等待波动性过去并顺势反弹很容易。
英文原文
I've been in the memory/AI trade like $MU, $SNDK. But opportunities like this don't come often. Every crypto name has been reset: Bitcoin - $70K from $125k Ethereum - $2.05K from $4k Solana - $88 from $233 $COIN $162 from $415 $CRCL $56 from $240 $GLXY $19 from $40 $ETOR $26 from $68 $MSTR $132 from $434 If people think Bitcoin is going back to $30K idk what to tell you, every institution I've seen personally is buying now after the liquidation wipeout. Easy to wait out volatility and ride the wave back up.
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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谷歌巨额资本支出加速AI基建，利好相关供应链。
$GOOGL 公布了财报，其资本支出(CapEX)规模巨大。 1750亿-1850亿美元 vs. 1200亿美元。 这对AI基础设施建设是利好。 跟随资金流向下游： - $AVGO、联发科、$TSM（设计/晶圆代工） - SK海力士、三星、$MU、$SNDK（存储） - $ANET、$LITE、$COHR、$VRT（网络、光子学、能源） 等等，因为谷歌表示支出主要在于：“包括服务器、数据中心和网络在内的AI基础设施”。 从 $META 到 $GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商正在大幅增加资本支出。 这仅仅表明： AI基础设施建设正在加速，并由全球最盈利的公司资助。 做多AI供应链。
英文原文
$GOOGL reported earnings and their CapEX spend was enormous. $175-$185 Billion vs. $120 Billion. This is bullish for AI buildout. Follow the money flow down to: - $AVGO, Mediatek, $TSM (design / foundry) - Sk hynix, Samsung, $MU, $SNDK (memory) - $ANET, $LITE, $COHR, $VRT (network, photonics, energy) etc. as Google said spend was: "primarily on AI infrastructure including servers, data centers and networking" Hyperscalers from $META to $GOOGL are increasing their capex spend enormously. This just goes to show: AI buildout is accelerating and is funded by the most profitable companies in the world. Long AI supply chains.
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午睡醒来目睹半导体板块全线暴跌，感叹市场抛售疯狂。
刚午睡醒来，看到从 $MU 到 $SNDK 全线下跌 15%。 甚至 $CRDO 也跌了 13%，很久没见它跌到 90 美元区间了。 真是疯狂的抛售。 https://t.co/tytlogNw5o
英文原文
Just woke up from a nap to see everything down 15% from $MU to $SNDK. Even $CRDO is down 13%, haven’t seen it in the $90s in forever. What a wild selloff. https://t.co/tytlogNw5o
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看好SNDK高增长潜力，认为其估值低且具历史重演性。
在我看来，估值最低的是SK海力士，增长最快的是$SNDK，最安全的是$MU和三星。 我是$SNDK的忠实粉丝。其固态硬盘(SSD)及后续的混合总线闪存(HBF)让我想起了最初的建设阶段，当时大家都在争相堆叠英伟达GPU。 这种感觉就像既视感(dejavu)。其增长轨迹可能是所有存储股中最高的，我认为他们2026年的远期市盈率(double digit forward p/e)是个位数，但到2027年会降至6.5左右。 财报发布后，其股价创下了历史新低。
英文原文
Imo most undervalued = SK Hynix, fastest growth = $SNDK, safest = $MU, Samsung Big fan of $SNDK. Ssds and later hbf reminds me of initial buildout where everyone was fighting to stack Nvidia GPUs. This feels like dejavu. Growth trajectory is probably the highest out of any memory play, think they’re double digit forward p/e in 2026 but goes down to like 6.5 or so in 2027. It’s cheaper than ever post earnings.
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指出SNDK散户做空比例极高。
@traderofstox $SNDK 散户空头无处不在！ https://t.co/Ai1TkF6QmX
英文原文
@traderofstox $SNDK retail shorts are everywhere! https://t.co/Ai1TkF6QmX
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英特尔称内存瓶颈将持续至2028，暗示存储股强劲做多信号。
X 上的散户真的需要停止做空 $SNDK 了。 英特尔 CEO 曾毓群刚刚在思科 AI 峰会上表示： “现实是，内存是目前 AI 最大的瓶颈……结构性供应紧张，至少在 2028 年之前都没有缓解迹象。” 英特尔 CEO 谈论 $MU、SK 海力士、三星的瓶颈，并指出 ***两年后*** 才可能缓解，这大概是你最强的做多信号。
英文原文
Retail on X really need to stop shorting $SNDK. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan just said at Cisco's AI Summit: "The reality is that memory is the biggest constraint for AI right now... structural supply crunch with no relief until at least 2028". Intel CEO talking about $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung bottleneck that there's no relief until ***2 years later*** is probably your biggest long signal.
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市场恐慌中 $SNDK 逆势上涨，建议利用恐惧寻找入场点。
$SNDK 简直不知道什么是“下跌日”。 股市在 $PYPL 今日暴跌 20.7%+ 后已进入“恐惧”区域。 加密市场在 $COIN 和 $MSTR 过去三个月分别暴跌 48% 和 51% 后，现已进入“极度恐惧”状态。 散户看起来正在恐慌。 现金是一种持仓策略，但本应在一周前就采取。 现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当“恐惧”已经压倒了基本面时。
英文原文
$SNDK literally doesn’t know what a red day means. https://t.co/W1SCKBmQLE
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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博主谦虚回应感谢，承认SNDK投资者收益可能优于自己。
@PhotonCap @KawzInvests 谢谢！我相信肯定有很多人的回报率比我高。 $SNDK 的投资者可能已经跑赢了我的投资组合 https://t.co/ewZGEiY9j7
英文原文
@PhotonCap @KawzInvests Thank you! I’m sure a lot of people have better returns out there. $SNDK investors would probably would have outperformed my portfolio https://t.co/ewZGEiY9j7
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对比TER盘后大涨与SNDK表现平淡
@jukan05 哇，$TER 盘后涨幅超 19%。 不过对于 $SNDK 来说这只是平常的一天 https://t.co/Gu27gjquEi
英文原文
@jukan05 Wow, 19%+ AH on $TER. Just a normal day for $SNDK though https://t.co/Gu27gjquEi
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头头寸。
@Cheva28789724 这是我之前关于 $VPG 的分析文章。 https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人 Humanoid 放量最不对称的单一敞口，特别是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司生产： 估计占每个人形机器人 BOM（物料清单）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆在 2027 年实现其德克萨斯州 Gigafactory 1000 万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种数学计算极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每个人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生的话）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化后的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55% 左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 85 亿美元收入以 55% 利润率计算： - 20 倍市盈率将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉涨前（3 美元 -> 113 美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30 美元 -> 453 美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领任何映射研究，它们由其他分析师完成）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年以来一直在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们自行研发专利技术/材料并放弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 放量挂钩，始终存在被放弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化的人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年将是机器人的拐点，而 $VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 This was my write up about $VPG earlier https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV
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存储超级周期盈利强劲，AI需求推动价格结构性上涨。
$SNDK - 即使在上涨16%之后，其2027年的远期市盈率(Forward P/E)仍是个位数。 这就是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)的盈利能力，涉及美光($MU)、SK海力士、三星等公司。 AI需求+价格上调看起来像是新的结构性常态。
英文原文
$SNDK - Even after a 16% increase, the forward 2027 p/e is still single digits. That’s how profitable the memory supercycle is with $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others The AI demand + price hikes looks like the new structural norm. https://t.co/6RG14zqEpr
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对比存储巨头远期市盈率，指出若周期延续，行业利润或创历史新高。
存储公司概览（2月2日）。 2026/2027年远期市盈率(Forward P/E)预估： 美光(Micron, $MU) 年初至今(YTD) +31.5%： ~10.4倍 (2026年) 闪迪(Sandisk, $SNDK) | 年初至今(YTD) +109.36%： ~14.6倍 (2026年) ~6.3倍 (2027年) 三星电子(Samsung Electronics) | 年初至今(YTD) +17.04%： ~5.1倍 (2026年) ~4.3倍 (2027年) SK海力士(SK Hynix) | 年初至今(YTD) +22.6%： ~4.3倍 (2026年) ~3.4倍 (2027年) 数据源自：三星/SK海力士来自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)研报；闪迪来自贝尔斯登(Bernstein)；美光来自汇丰(HSBC)报告。 闪迪/三星/SK海力士的数据最为最新。 美光的报告日期为1月23日。但今日最新数据显示“美光提议服务器DRAM(DRAM)环比(QoQ)增长115–125%”（来源dramexchange）。 鉴于此前传闻三星NAND价格上涨100%以上：新计算可能将美光的远期市盈率降至~6.9倍-7.3倍。 原始计算使用的是之前的分析师报告。 存储公司预期的净利润令人难以置信。但显然市场在三星/SK海力士的上涨中定价了一些怀疑情绪。 然而，如果存储周期持续至2027-2028年之后，这些公司可能会成为历史上最盈利的企业。
英文原文
Memory Company Overview (February 2nd). Forward P/E Estimates for 2026/2027: Micron ( $MU ) +31.5% YTD: ~10.4x (2026) Sandisk ( $SNDK ) | +109.36% YTD: ~14.6x (2026) ~6.3x (2027) Samsung Electronics | + 17.04% YTD: ~5.1x (2026) ~4.3x (2027) SK Hynix | +22.6% YTD: ~4.3x (2026) ~3.4x (2027) Numbers were derived from Morgan Stanley's research note for Samsung/SK Hynix. Bernstein for Sandisk. HSBC report for Micron. Sandisk/Samsung/SK Hyinx are most up to date. Micron's report was January 23. But recent updates today show "Micron Proposed A 115–125% QoQ Increase for server DRAM" (dramexchange). With rumors that NAND prices increased 100%+ from Samsung the other week: new calculations would may bring Micron to ~6.9x-7.3x forward P/E. Original calculations were using prior analyst reports. The net income memory companies are expected to bring in is absurd. But clearly the market is pricing in some skepticism with the rally (with Samsung/SK Hynix). However if the memory cycle continues past 2027-2028, these companies could be the most profitable in history.
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白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
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7N铟价创新高，AI需求致上游供应瓶颈显现，涨价在即。
7N铟价格在SMM上刚刚创下历史新高，且毫无放缓迹象。 $AXTI 的瓶颈正在实时上演。 西方超大规模云服务商似乎正在吸收用于AI建设的几乎所有磷化铟(InP)衬底和前驱体供应。 就像 $SNDK 和 $MU 一样，对于像AXT这样的上游供应商来说，这只是一场等待涨价（类似NAND）的博弈。 供应冲击似乎不可避免。
英文原文
7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down. The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time. Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout. Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND). The supply shock feels inevitable.
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SanDisk聚焦AI致传统存储真空，群联与美光科有望填补。
我持有的、在 $SNDK 财报后有趣的受益者： 群联电子 (TPE: 8299) 和 美光科 (TPE: 2337)。 类似于南亚科 (1年涨幅 1,035.96%) 填补了 $MU、SK 海力士和三星留下的传统 DRAM 空白： 群联电子在闪存 (库存) 方面对 SanDisk 做同样的事。美光科则通过 MLC NAND (拥有晶圆厂) 填补空白。 所以这是另一个“传统空白”策略。 随着 $SNDK 将其 NAND 晶圆转向企业级 SSD 以聚焦 AI，群联/美光科看起来要填补这一真空。 特别是当 SK 海力士和三星停止生产 MLC NAND 以聚焦 HBM 时，这两家公司将成为传统存储领域的“最后幸存者”。 群联电子恰好拥有 2024/2025 年大量低成本 NAND 库存。 美光科正在增加 MLC NAND 产量以填补三星/SanDisk 转型留下的空白。 所以对于 SanDisk 留下的“南亚科 2.0”： 群联 = 巨大库存的价格套利 美光科 = MLC NAND
英文原文
Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own: Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337). Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung: Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs). So another "legacy void" play. As $SNDK pivots their NAND wafers toward enterprise SSDs to focus on AI, Phison/Macronix looks to fill the vacuum. Esp. when Sk Hynix and Samsung stop making MLC NAND to focus on HBM, the "Last Man Standing" for legacy storage would be those two. Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025. And Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot. So for Nanya v2 left by Sandisk: Phison = Massive stockpile price abritrage Macronix = MLC NAND
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持有SNDK和南亚科，涨幅超1000%。
@HelixCapital_ 可能是 SanDisk，但我没有明确倾向。我目前同时持有 $SNDK 和南亚科(Nanya)（在财报后买入 SanDisk，并将铠侠(Kioxia)作为 SanDisk 的代理标的)。它们自去年以来都上涨了 1000%+，所以很难抱怨。
英文原文
@HelixCapital_ Probably Sandisk but no firm opinion, I own both $SNDK and Nanya right now (ended up buying Sandisk after ER, but have Kioxia as Sandisk proxy) They’re both up 1000%+ since last year so hard to complain.
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闪迪Q3业绩大幅超预期，嘲讽500美元处做空者。
所有在$500做空$SNDK的空头现在能出来吗？ 我知道X上有一堆人。 闪迪(SanDisk)财报(Q3 ER)报告指引： - 销售额46亿美元 vs. 预期29亿美元 - 每股收益(EPS)13.00美元 vs. 预期4.21美元（哈哈这就是原因） https://t.co/QE1Mc57HRx
英文原文
Can all the $SNDK short sellers at $500 come out now? I know there were a bunch on X Sandisk ER Reported Q3 guide: - Sales $4.6B vs. est $2.9B - EPS $13.00 vs. est $4.21 (lol this is why) https://t.co/QE1Mc57HRx
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提及闪迪做空者，指出铠侠等将与其共享行业顺风。
@theodore_invest 我记得看到过一堆在 $500 做空 $SNDK 的做空者，哈哈。不过确实，铠侠(Kioxia)等公司将与闪迪(SanDisk)共享许多顺风因素。
英文原文
@theodore_invest I remember seeing a bunch of $SNDK short sellers at $500 lol. But yeah Kioxia and co will share a lot of the tailwinds with Sandisk.
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SanDisk 支付 Kioxia 制造费，财报或超预期但下游受益股低迷。
$SNDK：“SanDisk 将向 Kioxia 支付 11.65 亿美元，以获取制造服务及确保持续的供应保障”。 Kioxia 与 SanDisk 共同运营着全球规模最大的 NAND 闪存（NAND Flash）制造基地之一。 SanDisk 的财报看似会大幅超预期，但许多处于供应链下游的二级受益标的却表现低迷。
英文原文
$SNDK: "Sandisk will pay Kioxia USD 1.165 billion for manufacturing services and continued availability of supply". Kioxia and SanDisk together operate one of the world’s largest NAND flash manufacturing sites. Sandisk's earnings looks like a blowout, but many second order beneficiaries are down the supply chain.
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通过铠侠间接持有闪迪，坦言看盘时有FOMO情绪。
@LouPariPassu 我通过铠侠(Kioxia)持有闪迪($SNDK)的敞口，但目前不直接持有闪迪股票。不过，看着每天的图表，我确实感到有些错失恐惧(FOMO)。
英文原文
@LouPariPassu I have $SNDK exposure via Kioxia, but don’t directly own Sandisk right now. I do feel a bit of FOMO though looking at the chart every day.
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头仓位。
@StocksSoccer 我确实持有仓位，这是我之前对 $VPG 的看法： $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人（Humanoid）放量最不对称的单一敞口，涉及： - $TSLA Optimus - Figure AI 因为这家市值5.8亿美元的公司制造： 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单(BOM)成本的3-9%。 如果埃隆在2027年实现德州超级工厂1000万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到85亿美元（850美元中位数 * 1000万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获500-1200美元（850美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每机器人成本为2-3万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每个特斯拉机器人中估计获得~3%-9%+的BOM份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约80%的价值可能来自Optimus机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为50%至55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器+外壳+电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55%左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于2028年实现1000万台人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括Figure、OpenAI或其他潜在客户） 85亿美元收入的55%利润率： - 20倍市盈率(P/E)将是476亿美元 - 30倍市盈率 833亿美元 从5.8亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 服务器机架拉涨前（3美元->113美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30美元->453美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家5.8亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线匹配研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于Citron等第三方估计的假设建模，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能不会如期进行。 - $TSLA 可能自2022年以来就在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉Optimus放量挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像2025年一样停滞（尽管2025年仍有~85%的回报）。 但总之(TLDR)： 我的观点是，像Citron这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于OpenAI上周进军机器人领域： 我认为2026年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例BOM成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头仓位来看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究(DYOR)，我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@StocksSoccer I do own positions, this was my take on $VPG earlier https://t.co/OE9toKfSbh
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推荐南亚科、华邦等亚洲存储股作为AI存储巨头替代标的。
其他一些亚洲存储多头思路，如南亚科（如果你不想投 $MU、三星、SK 海力士这类巨头）： - 华邦电子（DRAM/Flash）1年涨幅847% - Macronix（ROM/NOR Flash）1年涨幅389% - 群联电子（Kioxia $SNDK 的SSD控制器）1年涨幅383% 其他有趣的还有东京电子，作为NAND/DRAM设备商，是间接受益者。
英文原文
Some other Asia memory long ideas like Nanya (if you don’t want $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix types) - Winbond (dram/flash) up 847% 1Y - Macronix (ROM/ NOR flash) up 389% 1Y - Phison Electronics (SSD controllers for Kioxia $SNDK) up 383% 1Y Some other interesting ones are Tokyo Electron for NAND/DRAM equipment for indirect beneficiaries
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南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商，享稀缺溢价，股价低估。
南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一，与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想，这种抛物线趋势（1年+972%）是否会停止？可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结： 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62（随着涨价，现在可能更低）。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%，其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速，且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余： 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头（三星、SK海力士和$MU）争夺高端AI市场时，南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。（尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片）。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白，而南亚科填补了它： 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定，但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于： - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑：2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机：大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品：智能电视、游戏机（如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4）使用这些。 基本上，它们仍需生产这些，但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”，因为他们无处可买，且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。
英文原文
Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.
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推荐AI供应链关键外国垄断股及美股替代投资渠道。
我首选的外国股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博西(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃核心(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好“美国制造”瓶颈及供应链相关的美国标的，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)。但这些外国公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何进入外国市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博西这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博西这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数外国公司。
英文原文
TLDR of my top foreign stocks: 1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan) 2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan) 3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea) 4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan) 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan) US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU (memory), or $LPTH (germanium) are typically my longs of preference "Made in America" bottleneck + supply chains. But some of these foreign companies are either critical to the entire AI buildout or capture a lot of the overflow. If you're wondering how you get access to foreign markets? - $IBKR There are US OTC equivalents for companies like Nitto Boseki like $NBCLF. If you're on Robinhood, $EWY / $FLKR provides access to large KR memory exposure. Some like Nitto Boseki are near monopolies so these are the very rare foreign companies I go out of my way to invest in.
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作者认为$BBW五年回报超英伟达，讽刺热门赛道拥挤。
人们做多 $MU / $SNDK 押注“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”。 或者因为需求做多“铜(Copper)”。 但显而易见的交易就在你面前吗？ $BBW - Build a Bear（泰迪熊工厂）。 5年回报率： 泰迪熊：1301.55% 英伟达(Nvidia)：+1,258.68% 当你在 GPU/存储/铜供应链中为残羹冷炙争斗时，你本可以像我一样买一只泰迪熊。
英文原文
People are long $MU / $SNDK for "The Memory Supercycle". Or "Copper" because of demand. But is obvious trade in front of you? $BBW - Build a Bear. 5y Return: Teddy Bear: 1301.55% Nvidia: +1,258.68% While you're fighting for crumbs in the GPU/Memory/Copper supply chains, you could have just bought a Teddy Bear like I did.
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以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
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作者看好$VPG为人形机器人拐点标的，类比$SNDK/$SMCI早期，已建仓。
看来市场开始关注 $VPG 了。 这是我机器人板块的首选股。 它让我想起当前内存行情启动前 $30 的 $SNDK，最终涨至 $470。 或者 AI 建设行情启动前 $1.3 的 $SMCI，最终涨至 $100。 这可能是人形机器人行业的拐点。 https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
英文原文
Looks like markets are starting to find out about $VPG. This is my top robotics sector stock. And reminds me of $SNDK at $30 before current memory rally to $470. Or $SMCI at $1.3 before the AI buildout rally to $100. This may be the inflection point for robotics humanoids. https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
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解析特斯拉机器人供应链瓶颈，强调寻找早期Alpha而非跟风。
我通常不会回复这种别有用心的诱导性问题，但我正在发布关于与特斯拉Optimus机器人相关的机器人供应链股票的信息综合。不幸的是，我试图发现阿尔法（Alpha），以便在早期找到下一个从$30涨到$453的$SNDK，而不是像$SOFI、$ASTS、$TSLA那样对已知的金融科技主题进行多头喊单以寻求确认偏误（Confirmation Bias）。人们似乎真的很讨厌当信息被证明方向正确，且像$OSS这样的公司获得60%以上的重估（Re-rated）时。如果信息错误，该公司第二天就会崩盘，而不是像$LPTH那样不断上涨。没人知道市场如何对信息进行定价，它可能是对的也可能是错的。而且我无法控制扫描我帖子的高频交易（HFT）算法。话虽如此，$VPG当天收盘持平。这是一个与机器人量产挂钩的多头头寸，Citron等几家机构去年已经入场。考虑到机器人行业的拐点，它现在只是处于雷达之下。
英文原文
I normally don’t reply to disingenuous leading questions like this but I’m posting information synthesis on robotic supply chain stocks linked to Tesla Optimus. Unfortunately I try and discover alpha to find the next $30->$453 $SNDK at the start rather than bull posting the same known $SOFI, $ASTS, $TSLA finx theme for confirmation bias. And people really seem to dislike when the information turns out to be directionally right and companies like $OSS get re-rated 60%+. If it wasn’t, the company would crash the next day instead of constantly going up like $LPTH Nobody knows how markets price in the information, it could be right or wrong. And I have no control what HFT algorithms do that scan my posts. That being said $VPG ended the day flat. This is a long position tethered to humanoid ramp that several institution like Citron already entered last year. It’s just under the radar now considering the inflection point for robotics.
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，具高BOM占比与非对称收益潜力。
$VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人量产（Humanoid ramp）最具非对称性敞口的标的，尤其是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司： - 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单（BOM）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆·马斯克在 2027 年实现德州超级工厂年产 1000 万台的目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的产量预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人量产的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人量产，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门利润率约为“55% 左右”。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 55% 利润率对应 85 亿美元收入： - 20 倍市盈率（P/E）将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很荒谬，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉升前（$3 -> $113）或 $SNDK 的拉升（$30 -> $453）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆（Operating Leverage）才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人量产条件成熟，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线映射研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入增长可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年起就在使用 $VPG 并开始扩大规模。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 量产挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个人形机器人规模化博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人量产的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司可能占据每个部署机器人高比例的 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立这个多头信念的。
英文原文
$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks. However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI as this $580m company makes: est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid. $8.5B revenue may come from $TSLA alone ($850 midpoint * 10M) every year if Elon hits his 10M Giga Texas production target in 2027. This is based on $VPG CEO's quote on value capture of $500–$1,200 per robot ($850 midpoint) and Elon's ambitious projections on production targets. Again this math is extremely speculative, but Elon quotes $20-30k/humanoid at scale and you can derive an est. ~3%-9%+ of BOM from each Tesla Robot produced (if this does ever happen) for $VPG. If you consider Elon Musk saying "About 80% of Tesla's Value Could Eventually Come From Optimus Robots": This looks like great exposure for robotics ramp for such a small company that's critical in the robotics supply chain. What I believe markets also missed is factoring in low end corporate margins to for blended margin estimates: ~40% However, the humanoid-specific gross margin at scale is projected to be 50% to 55% (and with current robotics ramp, blended margins would likely increase significantly). Their integrated actuator/sensor Modules (sensor + housing + electronics) is likely directly tethered to humanoid exposure, (measurement systems segment which houses these complex assemblies), which the CEO said on their earnings call achieves margins of "55% or so". In a bull case scenario where Elon hits his 10M humanoid projections in 2028 (single customer, not including Figure, OpenAI, or other potential customers) 55% margin off $8.5B revenue at : - 20x P/E would be $47.6 Billion -30x P/E $83.3 Billion from $580m MC. It sounds stupid, but when I look at $SMCI pre-server rack rally ($3 -> $113) or $SNDK's rally ($30 -> $453), it looks possible. Again this is speculative best case possible scenario, but the operating leverage is the real story here. So I think it's likely for this small $580m company to be strongly re-rated if the stars align for robotics ramp. Now downside risk: - The other humanoid provider is likely to be Figure due to timeline mapping. But this is not confirmed. (not taking credit for either mapping research, they were done by other analysts). These figures are hypothetical modeling based on third-party estimates like Citron, gross margins might be compressed if there's competitors or revenue ramp might not play out. - $TSLA has likely been using $VPG since 2022 and is starting to ramp up. There is always a risk they figure out the patented technology/materials in-house and drop a customer. This bull-case scenario is tethered to Tesla Optimus ramp and there's always a risk they get dropped that markets might price in. - Again this is a humanoid scale play. If Elon's projections are too ambitious and face delays, this might be stagnant like 2025 (which was still ~85% return). But TLDR: My opinion was that institutional analysts like Citron were way too early. However, given OpenAI's push into robotics last week: I believe 2026 to be the inflection point for robotics and $VPG likely captures the best exposure to Tesla and Humanoid robotics ramp. Especially when a small company likely has high % BOM cost of each robot deployed and high gross margins: I've taken long positions to see where this ends up. Of course DYOR on this, I just wanted to share how I came to develop my own conviction on this long.
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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作者对比了CRDO的抄底难度与SNDK/MU的持有策略，并提及AIRO反弹案例。
谢谢，不过 Credo 对我来说更多是个人交易标的。但当走势像“飞刀”时（$CRDO 上月以来下跌超 35%），真的很难抄底。相比之下，全仓转入 $SNDK 和 $MU 然后不动它要容易得多。像 $AIRO 这种看似“飞刀”的标的后来反弹了 48%，所以如果操作得当，抄底其实很赚钱。不过我们得看看我的解读是否正确，我很享受用市场来测试自己的理论。
英文原文
Thanks, Credo is personally more of a trade for me though. But it's really hard to time the bottoms when things look like a falling knife ( $CRDO down 35%+ since last month). Much easier to just full port it into $SNDK and $MU and just not touch it. Stuff like $AIRO looked like a falling knife too then recovered 48%, so bottom catching is quite profitable if done right. We'll see if my interpretation is correct though, I have a fun time testing my own theories against the markets.
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AXTI因出口管制获垄断优势，虽今日大涨但真正波动或滞后，目前属早期入场。
考虑到今日的出口管制使 $AXTI 处于垄断地位，我认为今天超过+20%的涨幅本应更大！ 然而，真正的波动可能会像 $SNDK 或内存市场案例那样，在1-2个月后瓶颈出现时才会发生。 市值依然非常小，媒体也毫无报道。在座的各位仅仅是比市场更早入场罢了。
英文原文
本日の輸出規制により $AXTI が独占状態となったことを考えれば、今日の+20%を超える上昇はもっと大きくあるべきだったと考えていました！ しかし、本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。 時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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英伟达虽面临谷歌TPU等定制芯片竞争，但中期统治力稳固，逢低买入。
英伟达($NVDA)公布的2026财年Q3营收为570.1亿美元(+62.5% YoY)，表现强劲。并指引Q4营收超650亿美元(超预期30亿美元+)，以及通过CY 2026年Blackwell/Rubin系列营收超5000亿美元。尽管如此，股价仍下跌12%。现在$NVDA是强力买入吗？答案如下： $GOOGL的TPU项目成为首个对$NVDA GPU构成竞争替代的方案，Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，Meta据报道正在就数十亿美元的TPU采购进行高级别谈判。沃伦·巴菲特近期也向$GOOGL投资超40亿美元，鉴于伯克希尔对科技股保守的投资立场，这极为罕见。 尽管创下盈利新高，英伟达股价在过去10个交易日中有6天下跌，较10月29日触及5.03万亿美元市值时的历史高点$207.04下跌约12-15%。 分析师反应普遍看多，普遍上调目标价： - Evercore ISI从$261上调至$352 - 美银从$235上调至$275 - 花旗从$220上调至$270 - 高盛从$240上调至$250 - 摩根士丹利从$220上调至$235 但这里有个价值万亿美元的问题：超大规模客户日益增长的定制硅片威胁是否会削弱英伟达在AI领域的统治地位？ 与主要捕捉英伟达GPU缺货时的溢出需求的$AMD不同，谷歌的TPU项目代表了根本不同的竞争动态。 TPU v7 Ironwood是首款在性能上与Blackwell持平的非英伟达加速器，提供4.6 petaflops的FP8性能（对比B200的4.5 petaflops），配备192GB HBM3e内存。 Ironwood的架构差异化显著。虽然英伟达最大的集群配置为72个GPU(NVL72)，TPU Ironwood可扩展至9,216个芯片组。 客户斩获显著且不断增长： - Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，价值“数百亿美元”，1GW算力即将上线。 - Meta正在就2026年从谷歌云租赁TPU容量进行高级别谈判，并计划2027年直接采购硬件用于自有数据中心。 - 苹果透露Apple Intelligence基础模型完全在TPU上训练，使用8,192颗TPUv4芯片用于服务器模型。 - Midjourney从GPU转向TPU，推理成本降低65%（从每月200万美元降至70万美元）。 定位微妙。TPU在超大规模推理方面表现出色，在生产级大规模服务中成本性能最高提升4倍（目前）。在训练方面，英伟达优势明显。 对于高度优化的推理任务，TPU架构可能比$NVDA的通用GPU更高效。 然而，我预计下一代英伟达GPU将在许多场景下在推理性能上超越TPU。（类似于LLM之间GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5的迭代超越） 我们看到： 谷歌TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA、微软Maia和定制超大规模芯片都在扩展，但仍依赖$NVDA。但超大规模客户集体减少对英伟达的依赖，其累积效应是否会削弱英伟达的统治地位？ 答案：不会。至少未来两年统治地位稳固。之后如何纯属猜测。 仅看数据：Q3结果证实公司仍是AI不可或缺的基础设施提供商，5000亿美元的订单积压为2026年提供了极高的可见性。 但市场似乎正在定价3年+后的这种微妙现实：长期面临超大规模客户定制芯片的竞争不确定性。 英伟达产能完全售罄，且很可能在下一代芯片中超越TPU性能（推理性能更高且保持通用性）。但定制硅片威胁和44倍市盈率的估值担忧仍是逆风。 无论如何，鉴于出色的超预期财报和未来两年的订单积压，$NVDA目前因恐惧而下跌，似乎是中期强力逢低买入的机会。 你只需要记住这一点： 只要英伟达仍是AI工作负载的行业首选，且TPU和AMD GPU仅在需求超过英伟达供应时填补空白，它就是强力买入标的。 英伟达订单积压已满，AI需求并未放缓。
英文原文
Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026. Despite that, the stock dropped 12%. Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer: $GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments. Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap. Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board: - Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261 - Bank of America raised to $275 from $235 - Citigroup raised to $270 from $220 - Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240 - Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220 But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI? Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic. TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory. Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods. The customer wins are significant and growing: - Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online. - Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027. - Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models - Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly) The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage. For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU. However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5) We're seeing: Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance? The answer: No. Not yet. Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation. Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026. But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips. Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind. Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years. This is the only thing you need to remember: NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply. Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.