$CRM
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
对比软件股小幅反弹与AI光学股200-1000%涨幅。
我仍觉得很好笑，软件兄弟们看到 $CRM 到 $FIG 反弹10-15%就很开心。 此前他们的组合已经被抹掉25-60%。 与此同时，从 $SNDK 到 $AAOI 的所有 AI 名字随随便便上涨200-1000%。
英文原文
I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.
-
股票市场是正和游戏，可从AI瓶颈中获利而非投资传统公司
随时哈哈..我不认为大多数人已经意识到股票是正和(Positive Sum)游戏，每个人都能从中受益。我也不认为他们意识到你可以从AI瓶颈中获利，而不是做多像$PYPL或$CRM这样的传统公司。
英文原文
@pennycheck Anytime lol.. I don't think majority of people realize yet stocks are positive sum, where everyone benefits. Also don't think they realize you can make profit off AI bottlenecks, instead of going long on traditional companies like $PYPL or $CRM.
-
因AI供应链机会成本高而不看好Adobe等，认为逆趋势难且非其偏好。
个人而言，我并不看好！这并非因为估值（即使打折后）问题，主要是机会成本，因为国防（如无人机）以及从存储到材料的AI供应链都有太多顺风因素。 我认为未来十年很难再看到像今年这样的一年，随机商品材料如磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)竟成为AI/光子学关键材料，且总地址市场(TAM)增长4000%+。 我认为如果分析师能比其他人更早识别出这些机会，这就好比现代淘金热。 话虽如此，像$ADBE、$CRM等公司可能会看到20%的反弹（你可以用期权来加杠杆），但很难逆趋势而行，这也不是我的菜。
英文原文
Personally, not really! It’s not due to valuations (even if discounted) but mainly opportunity cost since there’s so many tailwinds with defense like drones as well as AI supply chains from memory to materials. I don’t think we’ll see another year like this in a decade where random commodity materials like Indium Phopshide end up becoming critical for AI/photonics and TAM goes up 4000%+. I think if analysts are able to identify them before others due, it’s like the modern gold rush. That being said sure companies like $ADBE, $CRM and others might see a 20% rebound (and you can play options for leverage) but harder to fight the trend + not my cup of tea.
-
博主复盘今年亏损持仓，总结税务收割、迷因股及期权交易教训。
周末反思 ☁️ 我想列出今年所有亏损的持仓+经验教训。 ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, 定投 $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (新) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (新) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (新) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (新) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (新) 我发了很多股票，很高兴只有约7只短期看错（抱歉如果漏了一两只），还有约5只没踩准绝对底部。 我仍然认为它们会在2026年大涨，输家不多！ 个人反思 1. $ETOR: 基本面很好的股票。即使下跌~20%，我相信它会在2026年恢复。1/3现金，以盈透证券(IBKR)的速度增长。它受税务收割(tax-harvesting)效应影响（10月/11月），因为对冲基金卖出并在12月回购。 经验教训：无，我会再做一次。持有至2026年。为税务收割小幅减仓。 2. $VIRT: 如果我买看涨期权，可能不应该公开发布，因为这会影响对冲资金流。临近两次降息（对股市利好）时减仓进行税务收割。对冲有效但损失不少。 经验教训：对冲操作保密。仍然认为方向正确，只是想税务收割。 3. $SNAP: 在$8.2左右发布，当时他们将记忆功能转化为收入。这是2026年的布局，不担心短期税务收割。 经验教训：无。持有至2026年。 4. $SG: 说实话，我只是喜欢沙拉🥗。今年早些时候是$35+。我认为它最终会恢复，只是等待游戏，因为现在约1倍市销率(p/s)？ 经验教训：无。中期持有。 5. $GRRR: 调查其$14亿合同后迁移至$WLAC，看起来可疑。被$3.8亿市值对比$14亿收入潜力所诱。 经验教训：相信对可疑公司的直觉。如果属实可能5倍，但我不信任。可能不该进入。（已减仓） 6. $FLY: 下跌~12%，仍然是2026年中期升力布局。最近发布，时机可能更好。 经验教训：无，也许税务收割时机更好。 7. $LTC: 下跌~20%。加密货币被清算+政府停摆延迟ETF批准所重创。 经验教训：不要杠杆炒币。政府停摆延迟ETF批准哈哈。 8. $OPAD: 之前卖出，但当前价格-36%。我冲进去的迷因股(meme stock)。 经验教训：不要碰迷因股。 9. $CRM: 因短期期权+错过财报日损失~30%。波段交易搞砸了。 经验教训：始终检查财报日，只是一次性错误，以前没犯过。 10. $AMZN: 它是亚马逊。有时下跌1%。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 11. $RDDT: 以为$200是底部，进一步下跌。平均成本降至$190。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 12. $WULF: 因为所有新云(neoclouds)都在涨而买入。$14.5买入，跌至$14。 经验教训：不要盲目追高(ape)。时机可能更好。 _ 税务收割总结 除了新持仓($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF)和提到的中期布局如$FLY（持有至2026年）外，大部分输家为年底税务收割而减仓。 TLDR: - 年底不要重仓税务收割股（如$LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP）。如果择时，等12月。 - 停止交易迷因股如$OPAD。 - 当SEA相关公司看起来可疑时相信直觉($GRRR)。 - 期权资金流影响流动性较差的股票（如$VIRT）。3月看涨期权可能仍会大涨，其他人买入可能影响行情，只是想税务收割。 其他交易如$AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF非常新，也许时机更好，但没踩准绝对底部。 _ 总体而言，目前还好！我数不清有多少100%+的收益...输家数量仍然很少，无论是数量还是仓位规模。
英文原文
Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.
-
博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
-
博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
-
凭直觉认为$CRM在$243的看涨期权表现良好。
$CRM 的看涨期权在 $243 这个价位看起来也不错，只是凭一种模糊的直觉。
英文原文
$CRM calls also looks good somehow at $243, just a fuzzy feeling