方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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引用研究指出低频交易优于过度交易，建议散户保持信念避免恐慌抛售。
现在市场又在举办激光派对，从 $SIVE、OE Solutions、$LITE、Coherent 到 $AAOI。有一项有趣的研究：富达(Fidelity)和加州大学伯克利分校(UC Berkeley)的论文都指出，表现最好的投资者通常是那些…… - 偶然忘记账户的人（富达） - 不主动交易/不过度交易的人（低频交易者回报18.5% vs 11.4%）。 这不是建议，但这些轶事可能对散户阅读有帮助…… 因为我目睹了记忆、光子学或主题波动性的大量投降式抛售，导致散户在强劲反弹时没有持仓。 拥有信念通常也属于“不过度交易”阵营，因为这有助于在下跌时不过度交易，或看到补仓机会。
英文原文
Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI. There’s a pretty interesting study: Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either… - Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity) - Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%). Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general… Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery. Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.
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通过对比AI云需求与Nebius基本面，演示做空Nebius并做多Lulu的对冲策略。
今天我在写一篇周末指南，讲解如何对做空 $NBIS 进行尽职调查(DD)： 首先，查看超大规模云服务商的财报以观察 AI 云需求的传导效应： > $GOOGL：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $AMZN：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $META：财报显示可用容量的价格高于预期。 现在，来看看 Nebius： -> $NBIS：年化经常性收入(ARR) 在 Q4 增长数百%至 70-90 亿美元。利润率增长，并指引签约电力超 4GW。 -> 预计 Uber/Waymo 拆分，更聚焦于 Avride -> 预计 Clickhouse 每季度快速增长。 看起来做空理由不充分！但接下来，你需要对冲吗？ -> 哇！一位 $NIKE 品牌高管，在股价过去 5 年下跌 75% 后，去了 $LULU 拯救该品牌？Lululemon 看起来不错。 结论：做空 Nebius 并做多 $LULU
英文原文
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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博主总结华尔街看空AI股的六大通用话术模板。
我梳理了华尔街针对AI概念股的空头剧本全集： 请在下方填入你熟悉的机构/媒体常引用的名称： 1. < ______ [GPU(图形处理器)、光模块、MLCC(多层陶瓷电容)、存储...] 是即将崩盘的 commoditized(大宗商品化) 产品 > 2. < ______ [长存、长鑫、东山精密...] 等中国厂商将淹没市场 > 3. < ______ [美光、英伟达...] 据不可靠的渠道检查正面临问题 > 4. < ______ [韩综指、Sivers...] 是像 ____ [2007、2021] 年崩盘一样的泡沫 > 5. < 今年将有 ____ [1,2,3...] 次意外的加息 > 6. < _____ [谷歌、英伟达、Deepseek...] 的优化消除了对此的需求！> 填入新标题，这就准备就绪了！
英文原文
I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names: Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below: 1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash> 2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market > 3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues > 4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash> 5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year> 6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!> in a new headline, and it's ready to go!
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Citadel借加息恐慌低价抄底AI资产，展现逆向操作策略。
效仿 Citadel： > 几天前呼吁意外加息，引发市场恐慌 > 随即出手，买入数十亿美元被清算的对冲基金 AI 资产 > 最终并未加息 > “牛市驱动因素依然完好” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq
英文原文
Be Citadel: > calls for unexpected rate hike few days ago, causing market panic > reaches out and buys billions of liquidated hedge fund AI assets > no rate hike > “Bull market drivers are fully intact” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq
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反驳散户影响市场论，强调基本面驱动股价。
@optionsreaper 即使散户不知道他的存在，他的观点在 $SNDK 或 $BE 上本来也会兑现。散户对 NAND（闪存）短缺或超大规模云服务商对 Bloom 的需求不会有任何改变。将其贬低为仅仅是散户在模仿他，也是非常糟糕的。
英文原文
@optionsreaper His ideas would have played out anyway with $SNDK or $BE even without anyone from retail knowing he existed. Retail wouldn't have changed a thing with NAND shortages or hyperscaler demand for Bloom. Downplaying that to just retail copying him is also terrible.
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主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。
@highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。
英文原文
@highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.
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博主暂不建仓，静待CPO标的逻辑兑现，后续将分享个股思路。
@twisterchessur 就我个人而言，目前只想静待既有的做多逻辑逐步兑现，尤其是近期大盘回调之后的共封装光学(CPO)相关标的。当前暂不打算建新仓，不过稍后我会再分享几个个股思路。
英文原文
@twisterchessur 就我个人而言 目前只想静待既有的做多逻辑逐步兑现，尤其是近期大盘回调之后的 CPO 相关标的。当前暂不打算建新仓 不过稍后我会再分享几个个股思路
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AI价值非线性质疑利润论，资本支出将持续高增
老实说，在 X 上随意发布新颖的信息发现才是做研究该有的样子。这似乎是斯梅尔（Smale）提出的“下个世纪数学问题”列表中的第 16 项？这在一定程度上表明，AI 产生的价值并不随 token 成本线性增长……看到这一点后，空头可能仍会质疑：“但 AI 应用后的利润究竟从何而来？”AI 与资本支出（Capex）的投入大概率将继续迅猛增长。
英文原文
TBH, casually posting novel information discovery to X is how research should be done. Apparently this was #16 on the Smale's list of Mathematical Problems for the Next Century? Kinda shows that the value generated from AI does not scale linearly with token costs... After seeing this, bears are still probably going to say: "B-but where's the profit coming from after AI usage?" AI + capex is likely going to keep going brrr.
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欧洲投资者保守晒2%收益嘲笑科技股暴跌，但反映的是文化差异而非技术判断。
X平台的好处之一是能观察到文化差异：我看到一群欧洲旁观账户，躺着收银行存款利息，年内收益2%。现在冒出来说，当初投资$AAOI做光子学或三星做内存的都是赌徒。终于等到从$MRVL到$NBIS再到$INTC的所有AI相关股票在暴涨数倍后崩盘了，然后在那里庆祝。我认为主要是对技术变革缺乏理解，加上资本保值文化与成长型投资文化的碰撞。
英文原文
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.
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博主认为当前崩盘源于杠杆而非基本面，强调建立独立投资逻辑的重要性。
同意！在市场崩盘时回顾自己的投资逻辑是很好的。以我个人的逻辑为例，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元季度营收（年化 56 亿美元），对应 80 亿美元市值。如果到 2026 年这种营收增长尚未体现在季报中，该公司就“完蛋”了吗？这同样适用于我在共封装光学(CPO)领域的持仓如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。如果规模化扩展(scale out)出货量从 2026 年下半年增至 2027 年，而规模化堆叠(scale up)大幅放量至 2028 年。如果高盛(GS)预测的从 0 到 910 亿美元的潜在市场(TAM)扩张尚未实现，就认为它“结束了”吗？对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果上市尚未发生且人形机器人未放量，2026 年就“结束了”吗？我个人认为当前市场状况反映的是流动性和杠杆问题，而非个股基本面。最近看到 KOSPI、台湾、日经指数以及 AI、太空、机器人板块股票暴跌，对每个人来说都很残酷。尤其是当大量非理性行为源于杠杆时。最终，我们无法告诉你买什么股票、何时卖出、如何仓位管理或该做什么。只分享个人想法或研究，并追踪它们是否随时间得到验证。因此，建立自己的投资逻辑至关重要，因为每个人的风险承受能力或投资期限都不同。这通常能在崩盘时带来更高的信念。
英文原文
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
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算法交易导致板块因谣言暴跌且难恢复，市场受误导信息主导。
@mmpatel101 是的，这就是如今头条算法交易令人遗憾的现实。板块因延迟消息暴跌 20-50%+，进而引发连锁保证金清算。当“延迟被否认”的消息出现时，人们仍对其表示怀疑，而市场则继续关注数周前误导性的延迟报道。
英文原文
@mmpatel101 Yeah that's the unfortunate reality of headline algorithm trading nowadays. Sector tanks 20-50%+ off delay news, then causes cascading margin liquidations. "Delay refuted" news comes out, people still cast doubts over it, and markets focus on misleading delay reports weeks
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博主指出成本数据基于高价ASP而非量产BOM，认为该分析缺乏参考价值。
@Traderissimo 所以这是最终售价的成本，而非物料清单(BOM)成本。他们还使用了$134K的平均售价(ASP)，而非量产爬坡后低于$20K的成本。正如$VPG所见，传感器单价从$750降至大规模量产时的$150。因此很多计算都变了，我觉得这个成本结构没什么帮助。
英文原文
@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful
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承受波动性是区分专业投资者与普通人的关键。
@MichaelMartocci 恭喜，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和存储芯片的上涨简直封神(goated)。 是的，我认为能够承受波动性(volatility)才是区分投资者与普通人的关键。
英文原文
@MichaelMartocci Congrats, the SK Hynix + memory rise was goated. Yeah, I think the ability to stomach volatility is what separates investors from the rest.
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对比散户恐慌与博主对关键瓶颈的长期持有观点
这么说吧：散户认为30-60%的跌幅是“接飞刀”，认为套牢者永远无法回本。看到波动的技术分析图表和人们将关键瓶颈比作网络迷因后，他们最终恐慌性抛售。而我将其视为对以下领域的长期持有：- 下一个
英文原文
Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next
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通过农场估值差异类比，说明相对估值信号及定价预期。
@0xResurge 假设你有一家估值为 45 美元的牛油果农场。隔壁的牛油果农场以 130 美元的价格被收购。而行业龙头的估值高达 2000 美元。这只是一个信号，表明你的牛油果农场可能被相对低估，或者其价格已经反映了（预期）。
英文原文
@0xResurge Let's say you have a avocado farm that's valued at $45. The avocado farm next to you gets bought for $130. And the avocado farm leader is valued at $2000. It's just a signal that your avocado farm might be relatively undervalued or where the avocado farm might be priced in the
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嘲讽技术分析是抛硬币，指出KOSPI图表无意义。
这就是典型的平均视觉技术分析(TA)爱好者，进行50%对50%的抛硬币式猜测： 如果走势相反，他们会说“ABC形态失效”，本该知道的…… 如果他们猜对了抛硬币的结果，就推销他们每月40美元的图表服务。 -> 人们在韩国综合指数(KOSPI)上画的那些波浪线毫无意义，而 https://t.co/lrGHWM8i5J 才是关键。
英文原文
This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where https://t.co/lrGHWM8i5J
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博主反驳仅看图表，强调应关注三星等公司的营业利润基本面。
@WLinvestment 这对你来说可能是个新闻，但图表上的波浪线（价格走势）并非基本面。 这与三星/SK海力士的营业利润增长毫无关系 https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg
英文原文
@WLinvestment This might be news to you, but swiggly lines on a chart is not fundamentals. And has nothing to do with operating income growth that Samsung/Sk Hynix make https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg
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博主讽刺某机构先发布看空报告，待股价大跌后再买入的操作策略。
@256_rc -> 撰写看空报告，特别点名 $HIMX 和 $LITE -> 随后在它们下跌 25-40% 后，将其加入其主动管理型 ETF 的持仓。 操作策略。
英文原文
@256_rc -> Writes bearish report, specifically calling out $HIMX and $LITE -> Proceeds to add $HIMX and $LITE their actively managed ETF after they drop -25-40%. op strategy.
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批评美IPO高估值，建议效仿中企模式让散户平价参与。
@hitraderjoe 最近的美国IPO模式非常愚蠢，比如 $SPCX / $CBRS 在上市前将估值炒高到荒谬的数字。更多的美国上市应效仿宇树科技（Unitree，可能获得更高估值）+ 中国的IPO如光智能（Lightelligence）。这些允许散户以相同的价格进入。
英文原文
@hitraderjoe Recent US IPO models have been very stupid like $SPCX / $CBRS hiking valuations to absurd numbers before going public. More US listings should follow Unitree (which would likely command higher valuations) + China's IPOs like Lightelligence. That allow retail access at the same
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CEO应保留股权增值而非依赖大额薪酬授予
@KlNKLAADZE 我的观点是，首席执行官(CEO) 应该保留他们持有的股权，并致力于提升其价值。就像 $RKLB 创始人所做的那样。而不是依赖大额的薪酬授予。
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@KlNKLAADZE My opinion is that CEOs should keep the equity they have and work toward making that appreciate in value. Like what $RKLB founder does. Rather than relying on large compensation grants.
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博主分享自建的用于实时追踪信息的个人终端工具。
@Sydneychaang 我构建了自己的个人终端(personal terminal)，用来随时跟进所有信息。https://t.co/tpg2GjgMTk
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@Sydneychaang I built my own personal terminal that I use to keep up to date with everything. https://t.co/tpg2GjgMTk
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全球市场修正中，高贝塔值股票跌幅远超大盘指数。
目前全球市场正在经历修正，不知何时会结束。 Kospi 下跌 -8.18%（SK 海力士/三星） 日经指数下跌 -4.8% 台湾加权指数下跌 -3.82% 正如你们所见，$SOI 或 $RKLB 下跌了 30-40%。 根据我的个人经验，高贝塔值股票受到的打击要猛烈得多，但 https://t.co/ekYz44MqJI
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There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but https://t.co/ekYz44MqJI
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博主分享基于个人经验的新研究启发式规则。
仅基于我的个人经验： 我的新启发式规则……
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Just from my personal experiences: My new heurist…
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警示散户勿盲从机构研报，以Kioxia暴涨为例证伪Bernstein看空。
Bernstein 基本上就是机构版的 Jim Cramer：告诉散户 Kioxia 看起来要崩盘，给出 -50% 的目标价。一堆散户卖出。股价随后直接飙升，今天又涨了 +12%。
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Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.
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博主寻求具备AI增长潜力的最大NAV折价标的以拓展研究
有人有最大净资产价值(NAV)折价清单或想法吗？但独立具备人工智能(AI)增长潜力？ 像 $ACMR 和 WUS (2316) 相比 SK Square 这样更极端的标的。 我持有上述标的，只是想研究更多机会。 最近似乎开始受到关注
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Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently
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批评Bernstein研报离谱，建议散户忽略此类机构报告。
Bernstein 绝对是我见过最蠢的分析机构，居然预测铠侠(Kioxia)股价要暴跌50%。 他们1月份给 $INTC 的目标价是36美元，现在都118美元了。 好好的一课：忽略那些为了迎合散户而发布的机构报告。 他们不是来帮散户投资者的。
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Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors.
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作者认为技术分析是占星术，本质是确认偏误与心理博弈。
这话可能会让很多人不爽： 但技术分析(TA)就是交易者的占星术。 它本质上是确认偏误加上关于入场点的人类交易心理学。 有点像人们从 $SPCX 首发公开募股(IPO) 中抢跑 $SPCE，指望散户因交易心理而输错股票代码。 $SIVE 并没有上涨 1900%。
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This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900%
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
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Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
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Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.