· 方法论
涉及标的： $AMZN$GOOGL$LULU$META$NBIS$NIKE
今天我在写一篇周末指南，讲解如何对做空 $NBIS 进行尽职调查(DD)： 首先，查看超大规模云服务商的财报以观察 AI 云需求的传导效应： > $GOOGL：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $AMZN：财报显示 AI 云需求创纪录 + 积压订单 + 利润率提升 > $META：财报显示可用容量的价格高于预期。 现在，来看看 Nebius： -> $NBIS：年化经常性收入(ARR) 在 Q4 增长数百%至 70-90 亿美元。利润率增长，并指引签约电力超 4GW。 -> 预计 Uber/Waymo 拆分，更聚焦于 Avride -> 预计 Clickhouse 每季度快速增长。 看起来做空理由不充分！但接下来，你需要对冲吗？ -> 哇！一位 $NIKE 品牌高管，在股价过去 5 年下跌 75% 后，去了 $LULU 拯救该品牌？Lululemon 看起来不错。 结论：做空 Nebius 并做多 $LULU
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU