方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 2 / 13 页
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谈中国股票风险：政府可随意干预，因此即使喜欢LeaderDrive/Innolight也较少谈。
是的，完全正确。 这就是为什么很多中国股票被视为有放射性或“低估”，也是为什么我通常不太谈它们（即使我喜欢 LeaderDrive 和 Innolight）。 政府可以一时兴起摧毁或接管那里的任何业务。比如 $AXTI 始终有这种风险，中国政府永远是需要考虑的因素。
英文原文
Yep that's completely right. This is the reason why a lot of Chinese equities are considered radioactive or "undervalued" + why I tend not to talk about them too much (even if I like leaderdrive + innolight) Government can nuke or takeover any business over there on a whim. $AXTI is always a risk for example, but Chinese gov is something that always need to be taken under consideration.
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以富途/老虎监管风险为例说明应尽量避免中国敞口。
感觉 $FUTU 和 $TIGR 有点麻烦？中国政府正在追溯它们的历史收入。 中国基本没有公平法律（尤其是知识产权方面），所以如果政府想做某件事，法院会对它们不利。 因此几乎没有上诉机会，除非它们私下达成隐藏交易。我也不认为这些券商能像 $GOOGL 面对20 decillion 罚款那样处理，因为它们有本地运营。 所以简而言之：这是一个好教训，要尽量避免从 $BABA 到 $PDD 的中国敞口…… 而且正如 $META + Manus + 这次案例所示，即使某些东西看起来便宜，也有原因。 这也是为什么所有美国股票都有溢价，即便有点高。
英文原文
Feels like $FUTU and $TIGR are kinda screwed? The Chinese Gov is going after their historical revenues. There's basically no fair law in China (esp. with IP), so if Gov wants something done, courts will be rigged against them. So no chance of an appeal, unless they make a hidden deal. Also don't think the brokerages are able to pull a $GOOGL like their 20 decillion fine, given local operations So TLDR: Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible... And (as seen with $META + Manus + this case), even if something looks cheap. There's a reason why all the US equities have premiums, even if a little high.
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区分有帮助的翻译者和用AI抄袭加付费墙的账号。
回复 @DudeWhoInvests：是的……我不是在说 @beauty_oe、@Frenchie_、@babybluecream 这些有帮助的人，他们用韩语/日语/法语翻译自己的看法。 我说的是那些试图借助 AI 把东西包装成自己原创，然后再加付费墙的人。
英文原文
@DudeWhoInvests Yeah... I'm not talking about the helpful folks like @beauty_oe @Frenchie_ @babybluecream who translate their takes in respective languages like Korean/Japanese/French. Just the ones that try and pass stuff as their own with the help of AI. Then add paywalls on top.
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批评网红用AI改写旧帖且缺乏原创观点。
为什么有这么多网红只是用 AI 重写我的旧帖子？ 提示词：“复制 Serenity 的旧帖子……输出改写版本。” 甚至是同样内容……只是换成另一种语言。 如果你这么做，我倒不是特别在意，但至少让你的 AI 加一点原创观点。
英文原文
Why are there so many influencers just rewriting my old posts with AI? Prompt: "Copy Serenity's old posts... output it re-written" Or even the same thing... just in a different language. IDM too much if you're doing this, but at least have your AI add original takes.
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网络效应而非代码库赋予价值，X也是如此。
回复 @saso_equity：赋予它价值的是网络效应，不是代码库。只是因为所有人都同意使用它。 X 也是同理。
英文原文
@saso_equity It's the network effect, not the codebase, that gives it value. It's only because everyone agrees to use it. Same thing with X.
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称不再持仓但若有人有能力买下整家公司，则做空不是好选择。
回复 @SidkMena：我已经没有持仓了，所以不评论那里。 我只是说，如果有人看多，并且有足够资金直接买下整家公司，那它可能不是一个好空头。
英文原文
@SidkMena I don't have positions anymore, so no comment there. I'm just saying it's probably not a good short, if there's someone who is bullish... and has enough to buy the company outright.
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认为做空TE未必好，因为OpenAI runway model可能有能力买下整家公司。
是的，我不确定所有做空 $TE 的人是不是个好主意…… 当 OpenAI runway model 很可能有足够资金买下整家公司时。 话虽如此： 有人记得我预测 Faker 会赢世界赛，而且他们真的赢了吗？
英文原文
Yeah I'm not sure all the shorts on $TE is a good idea... When the OpenAI runway model likely has enough to buy the entire company. That being said: Anyone remember I predicted Faker to win worlds, and they actually did? https://t.co/F9ugI8M2Vb
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指出AAOI 6亿美元ATM造成短期压力。
回复 @PronologieFR：呃，就是 $AAOI 的6亿美元 ATM，会造成很多近期压力。
英文原文
@PronologieFR Uhh just your $600m ATM with $AAOI, that causes a lot of near term pressure
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主题不是线性接替，而是物理AI、玻璃基板、TFLN、存储、能源、光子学、CPU并行。
回复 @Sirivs_：不是一个接一个。是多个事情同时发生。 物理 AI 显然是下一个，值得看人形机器人、4D AI 等。 然后是玻璃基板和 TFLN 这样的近期转变。 现在有存储、能源、光子学、CPU。
英文原文
@Sirivs_ It’s not one after the other. It’s multiple things concurrently. Physical AI is obviously next, good to look at humanoid, 4D AI and others. Then near term shifts like glass substrates and TFLN is important. Right now there’s memory, energy, photonics, CPUs.
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指出CPO/1.6T订单收入2027放量，当前收入多为开发合同。
回复 @ChrisGrobbel：CPO/1.6T 订单会在2027年放量。你引用的所有收入都来自开发合同。
英文原文
@ChrisGrobbel CPO/1.6T orders volume ramps up in 2027. All the revenue you’re citing are from development contracts.
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说明若走ADR路线可通过IBKR转换并在Nasdaq交易。
回复 @a_ahmd31117：如果它们走 ADR 路线，你可以通过 $IBKR 做 ADR 转换，然后开始在 Nasdaq 交易。这样也能保持未实现收益状态。 不过会花一点小费用。
英文原文
@a_ahmd31117 If they do the ADR route, you can just convert it through $IBKR through adr conversion and start trading it on Nasdaq. You keep it unrealized that way too. Costs a tiny fee though.
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SIVE空头面临MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、财报、新客户、JBL需求和M&A多重不确定性。
这可能是因为空头面临极端不确定风险。 > MSCI 纳入将在一两周内为 $SIVE 触发数千万美元新流入。 > NASDAQ 上市可能随时发生。 > 财报催化，带来新的可插拔合作伙伴。 > 今天关于 $JBL 使用 $SIVE 的 1.6T LRO 极端需求新闻。 > 现在还有更多并购相关事项，可能突然增加收入数字。 借券费率飙升对长期持有人更好，因为它让持有空头仓位更痛苦，尤其是在空头占17%以上流通盘时。
英文原文
It's probably due to extreme uncertainty risk for short sellers. > Since MSCI listing triggers tens of millions of new inflow for $SIVE in a week or two. > NASDAQ listing could be anytime > Earnings catalysts, with new pluggable partners > News about $JBL extreme demand for 1.6T LRO using $SIVE today > and now more M&A related stuff that can suddenly increase revenue numbers Spiking short rates is better for long term holders, since it makes it more painful to have short positions, especially when it's 17%+ of the float.
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批评高估值下用ATM向散户转移财富。
回复 @kevinxu：如果有人把一家对 Boston Dynamics 有4000万美元敞口的公司，以9亿美元市值上市。 然后提交100亿美元 ATM，在散户买入时向公开市场卖出。 你会把这种向公司转移财富的机制称为功能吗？
英文原文
@kevinxu So if someone lists a company with $40m exposure to Boston dynamics at a $900M MC. Then files for a $10B ATM to sell into the open market as retail buys. Would you call that calling that wealth transfer mechanic to the company a feature?
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质疑20亿美元有效ATM与市值/NAV的说法哪里错误。
回复 @kevinxu：关于20亿美元有效 ATM 以及当前市值相对 NAV 的部分，哪里是假的？
英文原文
@kevinxu What part about the $2B effective ATM and current marketcap to NAV is false?
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普通投资者不读SEC文件，容易被网红推Figure后买入有效ATM。
回复 @RHouseResearch：普通投资者不读 SEC 文件。 他们只看到网红推广“Figure”，然后盲目买入最近也提交的有效 ATM。
英文原文
@RHouseResearch The regular investor doesn't read SEC filings. They just see "Figure" promoted by influencers, then blindly buy into effective ATMs that were also recently filed.
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批评BOT以高估值持有非流动资产并叠加20亿美元有效ATM，散户成退出流动性。
我不确定怎么会有人觉得以7.5亿美元市值买入 $BOT 中价值1.45亿美元、经常低于 NAV 交易的非流动资产是个好主意。 即使下跌37%后，它仍然约4.9亿美元市值。 除此之外，人们还在买入一个通过股权融资工具缓慢滴灌的20亿美元有效 ATM。 散户不仅提供了： > 退出流动性。 > 而且是在极度膨胀估值下提供退出流动性。 > 同时在有效 ATM 提交后，把自己买入的东西财富转移给公司。 也许基金有良好意图，但在当前估值下： 如果你是散户投资者，你基本上是在用流通盘玩金字塔烫手山芋。
英文原文
I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV. For $750M MC. Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC. On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility. Retail not only gave: > Exit liquidity. > But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations > While wealth transferring whatever you buy over after the effective ATM got filed. Maybe the fund had good intentions, but at current valuations: If you are a retail investor, you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float.
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批评过度ATM被披露后仍由人推广散户买入，像合法化盗窃。
回复 @pepemoonboy：对它们每一个来说，这几乎像合法化盗窃，因为过度 ATM 已经披露，然后某人还推广散户买入。 到目前为止，除其中一个外，它们最后都崩了99%。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Almost like legalized theft for each of them because the excessive ATMs are disclosed then a certain someone promotes retail to buy into them. They all ended up crashing 99% aside from one of them so far.
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不看好IREN，因过度有毒稀释结构限制上行，AAOI同期回报更高。
回复 @IggyPacoRico1：我看不到今天做多 $IREN 的理由，因为过度且有毒的稀释结构从结构上限制了上行。 同一时期 $IREN 持平到负收益，而 $AAOI 本可以带来300%+回报。
英文原文
@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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短期要关注流通盘动态，但多数人不用太在意。
回复 @marketsjoe：谢谢来源！始终了解短期时间框架内流通盘动态是好事。 不过绝大多数人不需要在意。
英文原文
@marketsjoe Thanks for the source! Always good to be aware of what’s going on with float dynamics on short term timeframes. Vast majority of people don’t need to care though.
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补充说明是自由流通股比例。
回复 @tomhou101：是自由流通股。
英文原文
@tomhou101 Of free float.
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SIVE自由流通股空头约17%，叠加MSCI、CHIPS、NASDAQ催化使空头风险高。
$SIVE 空头权益根据一些第三方数据约占自由流通股17%，这非常大（昨天之后可能更高）。 在我看来，它们这么早做空大概完了。 现在有 MSCI + CHIPS Act + NASDAQ 上市催化。 还有一家瑞典本地对冲基金上个月因空头亏损20%，如果事情继续这样发展，它可能会出问题。
英文原文
$SIVE short interest is around ~17% of free float apparently from some third party data, which is enormous (probably higher after yesterday). IMO they're prob fked doing it so early on. Now with MSCI + CHIPS ACT + NASDAQ Listing cataylsts. There was another local Swedish hedge fund that was down -20% off their shorts last month, so it might go under if things continue as is.
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SIVE/RPI模式类似：信息综合上涨后机构负面报道、散户卖出、机构买入流通盘、股价新高。
回复 @dubidubabap：我看到 $SIVE、$RPI 以及基本所有事情都有很强的相似性。 它诡异地类似于：信息综合推动价格上涨 -> 机构发布负面新闻/媒体周期 -> 散户卖出 -> 结果机构在买入流通盘 -> 股票创历史新高。
英文原文
@dubidubabap I see pretty strong parallels with $SIVE, $RPI, and basically everything. It’s eerily similar to price rises on info synthesis -> institutions publish negative news/media cycles -> retail sells -> turns out institutions were buying the float -> stock hits ATHs.
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从LITE/COHR部分轮动到SIVE/Foci，认为CPO是光子学超级周期中最有吸引力主题。
一个帅哥就算和 Clavicular 并排也更抢眼，但这不会影响任何基本面。 我上个月也像 Leopold 一样，削减了一些 $LITE、$COHR 敞口。 但我把它轮动到一个具体光学主题：$SIVE / Foci 这样的 CPO 名字。 整个光子学供应链正处于巨大超级周期的起点，而做多 CPO 作为架构范式转变，没有什么比这更有吸引力。 市场把两家公司等同于整个主题，然后一起卖掉所有相关东西。 不过对理解细节的人来说，这是很好的买入机会。 我仍认为 Lumentum 和 $COHR 有上行，只是如果只买股票，在当前价格下不太可能像其他名字那样快速翻倍。
英文原文
A good looking guy that would mog Clavicular side by side has no impact to any fundamentals. I cut some exposure too in $LITE $COHR like Leopold, last month. But rotated it to a specific optical theme with CPO names like $SIVE / Foci. The entire photonics supply chain is in the start of a massive supercycle and there’s nothing more compelling going long on CPO as an architectural paradigm shift. Markets conflate two companies as the entire theme and sell off anything with it. Great buying opportunity for people who understands the nuance though. I still think there’s upside for Lumentum and $COHR, just less likely to double at current prices as fast if you’re going shares only.
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批评BOT仍以4倍NAV交易且有20亿美元有效ATM，Figure敞口估值过高。
$BOT 即使下跌21%后，仍以4倍 NAV 交易。 还有20亿美元有效 ATM。 所以现在它基于1.46亿美元私人资产，市值约6亿美元。 在这些资产中，它们持有约3700万美元 Figure。 而你本质上是在以1600亿美元估值买 Figure，尽管领先人形机器人制造商 Unitree IPO 估值只有60亿美元。 所以，仅仅因为一个1.46亿美元私人基金上市，并不意味着应该发生数十亿美元散户财富转移？ 也许基金有良好意图？ 但在20亿美元股权融资工具之后，当已经存在估值/NAV 断层时，这个举动看起来很掠夺。
英文原文
$BOT is still trading at 4x NAV. With a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM. Even after the 21% drop. So now it’s ~$600M MC, off $146M in private assets. Then off those assets, they own ~$37M of Figure. Which you’re essentially buying at $160B valuations while the leading humanoid maker in Unitree is IPOing at $6B. So just because a $146m private fund went public doesn’t mean there should be a multi-billion dollar retail wealth transfer? Maybe the fund had good intentions? But idk after the $2B equity financing facility, that move just seems predatory when there’s already a valuation NAV disconnect.
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越频繁谈某主题，通常说明越认为它当前未知或低估。
回复 @johnoao：我越多谈某件事……通常说明我越认为它在当前时间框架中未知/低估。 不过它们方向上结果都不错？比如去年底以来的 $LITE、$AXTI、$AAOI、$NBIS。
英文原文
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
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批评POET和IREN靠营销、稀释散户囤现金，获得“假装直到成功”奖。
$POET 和 $IREN 字面上都赢得了“Fake it Until you make it”奖。 -> 通过网红进行灰色地带的无尽垃圾营销。 -> 稀释散户到足以囤积大量现金。 -> 现金设定了市值底线。 现在 $POET 在4亿美元私募后，可能有约8.3亿美元纯现金来自稀释。 而它去年市值还低于5亿美元。
英文原文
$POET and $IREN literally both won the Fake it Until you make it award. -> Grey area endless marketing of crap through influencers. -> Diluted retail enough to hoard tons of cash -> Cash is sets baseline Market Cap. Now $POET probably has around $830M pure cash from dilution after $400m private placement. While their marketcap was sitting under $500m last year.
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多数散户不读文件或理解封闭基金结构，以为买Figure却忽略高估和稀释。
回复 @amitisinvesting：是的，大多数散户不读文件，也不理解封闭式基金结构。 所以他们只是以为自己在买 Figure，却不是以极度膨胀估值买入，同时还有稀释。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Yeah majority of retail don't read filings or understand closed end fund structures. So they just think they're buying into Figure, but not at extremely inflated valuations while there's dilution.
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吐槽外行把无关术语硬塞进财报讨论
因为有人总在我自己的名字旁边，比如在 $TSEM 业绩里乱评论 $SOI。然后还扔进像 m7u 这种和他们预付款完全无关的东西。类似帖子有五六条，真的要把我逼疯了。要是拿 $IQE / Landmark 的业绩这么搞还说得过去，但这算什么。
英文原文
because I have people backseat commenting my own names like $SOI on $TSEM earnings. Then throwing in random crap like m7u with it that's not even related to their prepayment. There was like 5 different posts like that. I'm going insane. It's understandable if you do it with $IQE / Landmark earnings, but wtf.
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批评伪专家只会堆术语不懂底层技术
我百分之百确定，如果现实里见到你们这些“photonic memory（光子内存）”专家，500 个里有 498 个都讲不清 CXL 内存池化、KV cache 基础设施，以及 $PENG 到底是怎么从中变现的。 这就是为什么我现在时间线上总能看到一堆和技术无关的 $RKLB、$HIMS，或者非技术型 AI 专家。 你们在我的帖子下面胡乱评论，把 M7U MOCVD capex 和 $TSEM 这些完全不相关的东西说错，或者把每个术语都混成像 $SMCI 集成商那样，还硬往 photonics IP 上套。 然后就在我每条帖子下面塞满 buzzword。
英文原文
I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.
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提醒大家别忽略 SEC 文件和封闭式基金结构
问题在于，很多散户根本不读 SEC 文件。 更别说理解封闭式基金里的 NAV 差异和流通盘动态…… 所以他们可能以为自己是在按当前价格买 Figure，实际上买到的可能是 5 倍以上的另一种价格，而你还在承受 20 亿美元的稀释。
英文原文
@dweltrowskik The issue is not many retail investors read SEC filings. Let alone know the NAV difference + float dynamics with closed end funds… So they might just think they’re buying Figure at current prices. Rather than 5x+ current ones. While you’re getting diluted $2B
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强调前瞻跟踪比看 13F 更有用
我不太明白为什么大家要把 13F 文件看得那么深，而很多对冲基金在像 $JBL、$LITE 这些名字上都已经慢半拍了。 最好的收益来自在机构意识到下一个 $SNDK 之前就先买进去。 不是等他们在 3 个月后披露完再跟。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.
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回答“是否只能做多”的问题：关键是选对股票
@Matrix_B0SS 当然可以只做多？只要选对股票就行，哈哈。 https://t.co/Tom6pz8ROO
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS Yes it’s possible long only? Just need to choose the right stocks lol https://t.co/Tom6pz8ROO
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认为 MicroLED 对短期光电敞口没有吸引力
在我看来，未来一年里任何 MicroLED 都是在为 CPO / photonics 曝险浪费资本。 像 ams-OSRAM、AUO、Ennostar、Tyntek、PlayNitride 这些名字。 如果它们真能起量，量产大概率也要到 2028 年下半年或者 2029 年上半年。 你还不如把它们当作别的业务线来看。
英文原文
IMO anything MicroLED is a waste of capital for CPO/photonics exposure over the next year. Names like ams-OSRAM/AUO/Ennostar/Tyntek/PlayNitride, etc. Any volume shipments would probably be H2 2028 or H1 2029 if it even takes off from development stage. You're better looking at them for their other business segments.
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强调散户在不少标的上比机构更早
@Jglad011 这些名字里，散户很多时候确实比机构更早。尤其是多亏了 X。
英文原文
@Jglad011 Retail was earlier than institutions on many of these. Especially thanks to X.
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说明自己很难把复杂技术细节讲得完整
@PhotonCap 谢谢。有时候在这么技术密集的领域里，要把所有细微差别都讲清楚确实很难，尤其是我自己到底看到了什么。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Thanks. Sometimes it’s hard to get all the nuances across in a really technically dense field, in terms of what I’m personally seeing.
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列出市场回调时的加仓和定投思路
嗯，如果是我来做的话： -> 今天回调时重仓加 Foci / Nextronics / Shunsin。 -> 定投 MSScorps、Sivers、Furukawa Electric、Browave，因为这些波动都很大。 -> 也可以小量加一些像 PCL、All Ring（6187）这样的敞口。 Soitec 可能要等更大一点的回调。
英文原文
Hmm. If I were to do it -> Foci/Nextronics/Shunsin heavy add today on the drop. -> DCA MSScorps, Sivers, Furukawa Electric, Browave since those are very volatile -> Throw in a few ones like PCL, All Ring (6187) for exposure, but light. Maybe wait for a larger drop on Soitec.
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说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
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强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
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用 napkin math 算 Nextronics 的 CPO 价值
所以这是我在做多 Nextronics（8147）时做的便签纸计算。 他们是 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，供应 CPO connectors 和 cage thermal modules。 我按 2028 年的前瞻市盈率大概算了 2 倍，这也是我认为它有望在 2028 年重估到约 20 亿美元以上市值、具有很强风险回报的原因。 只看它的 CPO 暴露： -> CPO connector 大概 15 到 25 美元 -> ELS thermal cages 估计约 50 美元 每个 switch 18 个单元：18x50 = 900 美元 CPO Connectors：每个 switch 72 个 optical engines，72 x 15 = 1080 美元 （如果 $NVDA 扩到 Spectrum-X switch，这个数会到 1920 美元） Total Nextronics Content：大约 1980 美元（保守算成 2000 美元） 这意味着 BOM 只占 rack 的 0.08%，大概只占 switch 的 1.5%。 机构眼里这太小了，所以大概率被忽略。 但对 Nextronics 这家约 2 亿美元的公司来说，这很重要吗？ 当然，绝对很重要。 我算的时候把 Nextronics 在 Nvidia connector/cage 市场的份额打了 50% 折扣，因为存在多供应商。 并且我用的是 GS 的预测，再假设 $AVGO、$MRVL、ASIC CPO 生态的规模只有 $NVDA 的 30%。 净利润率：22.4%（GM 38% 时）到 24.0%（GM 40% 时）。 但如果按其他预测，只看 rack shipment： 2026：CPO revenue 约 1010 万，净利润（22.4%）约 226 万 + 基础业务 1250 万 = 1470 万（540k 单元是 connectors，40k 单元是 cage，且已除以 50%） 2027：CPO revenue 约 1.72 亿，净利润（22.4%）约 3853 万 = 5103 万（约 800 万单元 connectors，103 万单元 cage） 2028 scale up 扩张：CPO revenue 约 4.5 亿，净利润约 1.0093 亿，基础业务约 1130 万（约 4000 万单元 connectors，298 万单元 cages，例如 Nvidia ELS 量是 1990 万） 所以前瞻市盈率大概是 2026 年 15.4 倍，2027 年 4.45 倍，2028 年 2 倍。 当然，放量后综合毛利可能会下降，也可能会有别的玩家把份额稀释到 25% 左右，预测也可能比 GS 更高或更低。 但不管怎样，哪怕我偏差 50%，这仍然极具不对称性。 2028 年通常是 CPO 玩家大重估的一年，2026 年其实还很早。 希望我算得对，但 20x 的前瞻市盈率会对应 22.6 亿美元市值。 即便我们把： -> 市占率降到 15%。 -> 净利润率压到 14%。 -> connector ASP 降到 10 美元。 按 20x 倍数，股价仍然能有大约 4.5 倍回报，市值超过 10 亿美元。 我们走着看吧。（NFA，只是投机性财务建模）
英文原文
So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)
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说明自己会做估值建模但不细讲
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX 我其实会做估值分析，也会给每个持仓自己建模前瞻 P/E。 只是我不会分享太多技术细节，因为我会把这些帖子保持在一个更容易让普通读者消化的高层级。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX I actually do valuation analysis and model my own fwd P/E ratios for every name I long. I just don’t share a lot of technical details since I keep these posts high level to make it more digestible for regular readers.
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解释自己先选主题再选最优标的
我会先选一个我极度看好的主题，然后再挑最值得做多的玩家。 未来两年最大上行主题是 CPO，我对这个判断非常有信心。 我觉得 memory 处在超级周期尾段，回报可能少一些，但仍然不错。 长期 5 年以上则是 space 和 humanoids。 中间也有一些小机会，比如未来 6 个月的 glass substrate 转换，像 $LPK。
英文原文
I pick a theme I’m extraordinarily bullish on, then I pick the most compelling players to long. The largest upside theme is CPO over the next two years, I have extraordinarily high confidence in that statement. I think memory is tail end of supercycle where returns are probably less but still compelling. Long term 5+ years it’s space and humanoids. There’s little trades in between like glass substrate shifts with $LPK over next 6 months.
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寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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解释设计/IP 型公司人手少是正常的
好问题！$SIVE 这种做 IP / design 的公司，员工数量没那么重要。 很多媒体在和 $COHR 这种需要成千上万人做组装的公司对比时，忽略了其中的差异。 $SIVE 把设计交给 Win Semi / $GFS 去生产，这也是我更喜欢这种模式的原因之一，因为在它们真正形成可观收入、再去做纵向整合之前，这样能大幅降低 capex 和稀释风险。 从美国视角看，我个人把这看成优点：保持轻资产和可扩展性。
英文原文
Hey great question! So $SIVE headcount doesn't matter as much when you're doing IP/design. Lot of media misunderstand nuances, when they compare it with $COHR that have tens of thousands of people... which are required for assembly. $SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / $GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate. I personally see it as a plus, keeping things lean and scalable from an American perspective.
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强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
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学会真正分析财报，而不是只看图
学会真正分析财报，是个很好的教训。 而不是财报后立刻只看图。 $AAOI 自从财报跌到 139 美元后已经涨了 25.18%，今天又涨了 16.09%。 https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
英文原文
It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today. https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
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认为市场整体是正和博弈，没必要藏信息
谢谢！如果你不碰期权，市场总体上就是正和的，没必要把信息 gatekeep 起来。 感觉散户长期以来都被机构收割得挺惨，而 X 是比看那些低得离谱、-60% 的 PT 更适合散户消化新观点的平台。
英文原文
Thanks! Markets are generally positive sum if you're not touching options, no reason to gatekeep any information. Feels like retail investors have been kinda shafted quite a long time by institutions and X is the perfect platform for retail to digest new opinions than reading lowball -60% PTs while institutions secretly buy.
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承诺稍后补做 Nextronics 的更深入尽调
@Xecvvv 当然，我稍后会再做一篇关于 Nextronics 的更深度尽调。 我现在只是先抛出一个跟着 GS 供应商名单走的初始想法。 大家还是应该自己研究，我只是想先点出一个可以自己去看的有趣名字。
英文原文
@Xecvvv Of course, I’ll do a follow up on with more DD on Nextronics in a bit. Just throwing out the initial idea tagging along GS suppliers. People should do their own research, just wanted to spotlight an interesting name people can look at on their own.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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回看自己对 InP 瓶颈时间点的判断
@Deebeeng10 太好了！我自己都不敢相信，我竟然把 InP substrate 何时会卡瓶颈的中期 2026 时间点都猜中了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Deebeeng10 Glad to hear! I can’t believe I even guess the mid 2026 timelines on when InP substrates would be bottlenecked lol