方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 3 / 13 页
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说明很多持仓是 IBKR 代表的综合账户
@kxshxl 很多都是 omnibus 账户，代表像 $IBKR 这种散户 / 机构混合资金池持有。 从一些名字你也能看出来，里面更偏散户。 但像 Goldman Sachs 这种就是机构。
英文原文
@kxshxl A lot of them are omnibus and held on behalf of pools of retail/institution like $IBKR. You can kinda guess from some of them that it skews toward retail. But names like Goldman Sachs are institutional.
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认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强
我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的，像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字，通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
英文原文
Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu
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观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
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认为算法只看营收和新闻情绪
@DanilSer33 这是算法化的，因为它们看不懂很多 hyperscaler 映射。 它们大概只会看 TTM 营收和新闻里的情绪分析。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 It's algorithmic since they're blind to a lot of the hyperscaler mapping. And probably only see TTM revenue and sentiment analysis off news.
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估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年
大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up，那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生（$SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条）。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前，会先有逐步的量产爬坡。
英文原文
Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.
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说自己更愿意持有周期型设备股到 H2 2027
对我来说，大概会持有到 2027 年下半年开始。 我不喜欢长期持有像 $ASML、$AIXA、甚至 $TOWA 这种设备卖方。 垄断通常是例外，因为它们能保住估值，还能继续上行。 但大多数时候，它们主要吃的是周期的开始和中段，之后就会在下一轮周期前回落。现在通常是进入 GCS 爆发前的好时点。
英文原文
For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
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强调超级周期要看 8 到 12 个月前瞻
市场其实不会把过去 12 个月的收入完整计入超级周期。通常会看前 8 到 12 个月。 不过，CPO 可能是我见过和这些公司市值相关性最大的超级周期。 所以我愿意花几个月时间，在最底部提前抢跑机构，去押这个最大的架构变化。中间会有 revenue bridge，但 scale up CPO 的量产爬坡就是会非常陡。
英文原文
Markets don't really price in previous 12M revenue for supercycles. Usually look 8-12 months ahead. However, CPO is probably the biggest Supercycle I've ever seen related to the MC of many of these companies. This is why I'm willing to spend few months waiting to frontrun institutions on the biggest architectural change at the very bottom. There's revenue bridges in between but scale up CPO is just parabolic volume ramp.
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把研发阶段时间线拆成产品到量产的路径
@CM_X_CM 老哥，这就是我说的研发阶段。 2026 年 Q4 “产品准备好” 然后进入 sampling，6 到 12 个月（也许到 2027 年 Q3） 然后进入 qualification，6 到 18 个月（也许到 2028 年 Q2） 然后再扩供应链 -> 量产（2029）
英文原文
@CM_X_CM Bro this is literally what I mean by R&D phase. Q4 2026 "product ready" Then they go into sampling, 6-12M (maybe Q3 2027) Then they go into qualification 6-18M (maybe Q2 2028) Then they build out supply chains -> volume ramp (2029)
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用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
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把前几名主题排序成 CPO、HBM4、玻璃基板
@marv_jones6 第 1 是 CPO，第 2 还是 CPO，第 3 也是 CPO，第 4 是 HBM4，第 5 是玻璃基板。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 #1 CPO #2 CPO #3 CPO #4 HBM4 #5 glass substrates
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提醒股票不会直线上涨
@amz_2077 我觉得很多人会惊讶，股票并不会只沿着直线往上走。
英文原文
@amz_2077 I think many people will be surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up.
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强调 CPO 仍处最早期，大家都能提前布局
早？它才刚开始，大家都能提前抢跑下一轮大超级周期。 $LITE 自己都说了，CPO 存在极其严重的供需失衡，而 scale up CPO 还是它们最大的单一增长驱动，只是现在还在幼年期…… 这对 CPO 名字来说极度看多。
英文原文
Early? It's at the very beginning, and everyone gets to frontrun the next major supercycle. $LITE literally went out and said there's an incredible supply demand imbalance for CPO. And that scale up CPO is their largest single growth driver that's still at its infancy... This is incredibly bullish for CPO names.
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强调自己从未见过比 CPO 更牛的板块
再强调一次我的难以置信： 我从来没见过比 CPO 更看多的板块。 GS 把光学 TAM 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元 -> 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，增长 9 倍。 其中 CPO 就占了 910 亿美元。 从今天大约 1.64 亿美元的采样阶段（Modor 的 2026 估算）一路到 910 亿美元（GS 2028），这条曲线就是 55,000%+ 的增长。 这正是为什么算法 / 分析师会犯错，因为他们只会看这些 CPO 名字的 TTM 营收。 但接下来两年里一切都会发生在 $SIVE、Shunsin、MSSCorps、$SOI 这些名字身上。 这是在 $NVDA 推动下，从 0 到 100 的巨大架构转移。 我真的不认为散户或市场已经明白接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
Just reiterating my disbelief: I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO. GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028 CPO making up $91B of that. Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028) 55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names. But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI. This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA. I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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再次强调 CPO TAM 扩张过于夸张
GS 已经把 CPO 超级周期画成了不正常的 9 倍 TAM 预期。 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元到 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，其中 CPO 占 910 亿美元。 这就是为什么我对这类名字这么看多。
英文原文
GS has mapped out the CPO supercycle with unholy projections of 9x TAM projections. From $15B to $154B in a short timeframe. CPO contributing $91B. This is why I’m so bullish on $SIVE as one of bleeding edge CPO laser suppliers. Reminds me of the horse Golden Tempo. But for lasers. Still a small $1.5B MC, while all the others are tens of billions.
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强调 CPO 还非常早，自己在帮散户抢跑机构
@tw_crypto_ 这对 CPO 来说真的非常早。 我只是喜欢在机构之前，最开始的时候帮散户找到下一个超级周期。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ This is extremely early for CPO. I just help retail find the next supercycles at the very beginning before institutions do.
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列出自己最偏好的高 beta 和复利型名字
@Meatusmax 如果是我个人会这么做： “高上行火箭”： 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI 复利型： 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
英文原文
@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
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补充自己认为 laser chokepoint 最有上行
@tw_crypto_ 对，我觉得 laser chokepoint 的上行最好。 但这不意味着其他机会就不低估或不够吸引人。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yep laser chokepoint has the highest upside imo. But that doesn't mean other opportunities aren't undervalued/compelling.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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认为收费看股的服务大多只是因为想法不够好
我越来越确信，那些收 200 或 2000 美元，才给你看股票 pick 的人，多半只是因为自己的想法不够好。 不然他们完全可以直接把这些想法公开做多。
英文原文
I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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记忆类公司往往提前重估
我说过，像 $SNDK 或 $MU 这种存储公司，重估发生在真正公布财报之前，而不是财报当天。 你可以用第三方 NAND/DRAM TrendForce 这类涨价报告来估算，再据此推 gross margin。 我之前就拿美光做过例子，算出来的毛利率和实际报告几乎完全一致。
英文原文
I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings. You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those. I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.
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看利润数字，不要盯图线
@ConfusedNDazzed 我会忽略图上的线，只看 $RDDT 的纯数字。他们的盈利能力离谱，而且增长率还在疯狂上升。 估值最终会回到基本面上。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed I would ignore the lines on the chart and just look at pure numbers for $RDDT. Their profitability is absurd and they’re still growing at insane rates. Valuations will catch up to fundamentals eventually.
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要求给出处而非猜测
@kxshxl CEO 在财报电话会上并没有这么说。 除非你能提供来源，否则我不认为他确认过任何关于机器出货量的数字。 也许你之前拿 ASP 和 TAM 的估算去推了那个数字？或者只是引用了 100 台机器报价的示例采购单。
英文原文
@kxshxl CEO didn’t say that in earnings call. I don’t think he confirmed any number around machine volume unless you can provide a source. Maybe you took ASP and former TAM estimates previously for that figure? Or just referenced the example PO for 100 machines quote.
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解读 LPKF 财报要看量产信号
关于 LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> 财报的一些看法： 这很微妙，下面是市场可能漏掉的点： 如果你把财务数据孤立出来看，又不理解认证周期，那看起来就很糟。 财报电话会上关于量产爬坡的信号才是真正重要的。 1. “先进封装领域的潜在量产订单没有计入当前的基准指引” 任何在下半年落地的量产设备订单，都会立刻对他们的预期形成上行惊喜。（正面） 2. “LIDE 目前已在众多半导体客户的测试和研发环境中使用；预期后续订单……” 这确认了我们预期的情况，很多半导体公司都在对 $LPK 做认证。（正面） 3. “今年预计会有首批生产订单” 这意味着 2026 年下半年会确认量产爬坡拐点，这可能是市场漏掉的最大信号，而且这些内容没有计入任何预测。（非常正面） 从之前的采访里，我们还能拼出： 问：2027 年是否仍是玻璃基板进入大规模生产的起点？这个时间表还成立吗？ “是的。市场参与者正在为生产设备下单，第一季度已经录得初始订单。虽然挑战仍在，但我依然预计 2027 年会标志着大规模生产的开始。” 2027 年是玻璃核心基板的大规模生产，但 2026 年下半年才是 $LPK 量产订单的起点，而且**这些并不在任何预测里**。 财报已经确认了这些时间线。 基本上： -> 你不会在财务预测里看到和玻璃核心基板量产爬坡有关的任何内容，而这恰恰是美国投资者最关心的。 -> 单看财报，客观上很差，但如果你是按过去 12 个月而不是未来增长来建模，那才会这么看。 -> 已确认下半年开始爬坡。玻璃核心基板 2027 年进入量产。 如果有什么的话，这对玻璃核心基板量产爬坡的核心逻辑其实非常正面。 关键还是要看订单有多少。
英文原文
Thoughts on LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> earnings: Very nuanced, here's what markets might have missed: If you look at the financials in isolation and don't understand qualification cycles, it's bad. The earnings call for volume ramp indicators are what's actually important. 1. "Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance" Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise to their projections. (positive) 2. "LIDE is currently in use by numerous semiconductor customers in test and R&D environments; the expected follow-up orders..." Confirmation of what we expected, with many semiconductor companies qualifying $LPK. (positive) 3. "First production orders expected this year" Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026, this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that. (very positive) From previous interviews we can stitch together: Q: 2027 as the start of mass production for glass substrates. Does this timeline still hold? "Yes. Market players are preparing orders for production equipment, and initial orders have already been recorded in the first quarter. While challenges remain, I still expect 2027 to mark the beginning of mass production." 2027 is mass production of glass core substrates, but H2 2026 is start of mass production orders for $LPK, **which is not included in any forecasts**. We got confirmation of timelines from earnings. Basically: -> You won't see any projections/financials around glass core substrate related VOLUME RAMP which is the only thing American investors care about with this company. -> Earnings in isolation were objectively terrible, but you only care about this as a European if you model based on previous 12 months only (instead of future growth). -> Confirmation of volume ramp starting H2. Glass Core substrate mass production 2027. If anything, this was extremely positive for the core thesis about volume ramp for glass core substrates. We'll see how much the orders are though.
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财报前的收入缺口不该过度解读
@IkaKnight_ 我只是觉得 X 上很多人因为之前的营收缺口就慌了，这太好笑了，因为这明明还处在认证阶段。 这是前瞻性的东西，所以要等财报电话会。如果电话会是负面的，那这种恐慌才算合理。
英文原文
@IkaKnight_ I'm just laughing people on X are panicking over previous revenue miss when it's literally qualification stage. It's a forward looking, so need to wait for earnings call. If the call is negative, then any panic is justified.
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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CPO 还没有量产爬坡
@siflower CPO 现在还没有量产爬坡。
英文原文
@siflower There's no volume ramp for CPO yet.
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TER 不是好代理，FORM 和 VIAV 更纯
@gregory_FTA $TER 不是个好的代理，因为它们体量太大了。它们还暴露在非 AI 领域，比如智能手机芯片、EV/汽车。 而且它们还要面对 Advantest 的竞争。 更好的信号是更纯粹的标的，比如 $FORM 和 $VIAV。
英文原文
@gregory_FTA $TER is not a good proxy because they're extremely large. They had exposure to non-AI segments like smartphone chips, EV/automotive. Then they're facing competition from Advantest. Best signals are more pure play from $FORM and $VIAV.
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看基本面和市值，不要只看图
@forget8106 我不同意，我个人最近才刚进了 MSSCorp。 还是看基本面和市值更好，而不是只盯着图看它涨了多少。
英文原文
@forget8106 I’d disagree, I personally just entered MSSCorp recently. It’s better to look at fundamentals and MC rather than just looking at the chart to see how much it ran up.
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亚洲/欧盟股票不该按美股期权对待
是啊，很高兴听到别人也有同样感受。你提到的 Win Semi/HPS.A 是少数几个更罕见、保证金要求更低的例子。 但即便这些标的已经到了十亿美元市值，它们大多数时候还是会被收 100% 左右的维持保证金。 亚洲 / 欧盟的纯多头股票，不应该和美国短期期权一样对待，我希望 $IBKR 能稍微放宽一点限制。
英文原文
Yeah glad to hear others are feeling the same. Win Semi/HPS.A were a few of the rarer ones that had lower margin requirements as you mentioned. But even if they're in the billion MC range, they still get slapped with close to 100% maintenance margin most of the time. Long only equity in Asia/EU shouldn't be treated the same as US short dated options and I hope $IBKR eases restrictions a bit.
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IBKR 的保证金规则太离谱
@Ren_aramb 对，$IBKR 在保证金要求上真的很会整活……而且波动一大它们就加码。 就像 100% 保证金和短期美股期权差不多，但你拿的明明只是亚洲 / 欧盟纯股票？ 连用期权做多的维持保证金都比这低，哈哈。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah $IBKR is trolling with the margin requirements... and they hike it on volatility too. Like 100% is the same as short dated US options, but instead you just holding pure equities in Asia/EU? Even going long with options has less maintenance margin lol.
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IBKR 海外股票保证金过高
呃……$IBKR + Portfolio Margin + 外国股票怎么回事？ 亚洲或欧洲的每一个名字都被直接打到 100% 维持保证金，毫无道理。 只是因为隔夜风险？ 你明明在做纯多头，却比短期美股期权还糟。
英文原文
Uh... what's with $IBKR + Portfolio Margin + Foreign Stocks? Every single name in Asia or Europe gets slapped to 100% maintenance margin for no reason. Just because something isn't in the US like in Korea, Europe, or Japan doesn't make it a toxic asset? Do you guys just use prime brokers or something to get around this?
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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大回调只是图上的小波纹
一个大幅回调在整体走势图里看起来只是一个小小的波纹，这一点其实挺说明问题的。 这说明 “Serenity Stocks” 随时间的表现会怎样？ 除此之外，我开始觉得大家对预期定得太高了。 现在如果 $SOI 或 $HPS.A 不是每天涨 10%，大家就会失望。可在以前，年化 15% 回报都已经算很好了。 这种回调从拉远看其实很正常，哪怕它们有些还是美国媒体自己造成的。 通常如果某样东西是多年光学超级周期的核心组件……或者像变压器/开关设备那样积压了好几年。 晚上睡觉会轻松很多。
英文原文
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
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高波动需要自己有 conviction
很高兴你对 Serenity Stocks™ 也是这种看法。 我通常会偏爱高波动的名字，所以自己有 conviction 非常重要。我只是把思路讲出来，帮助其他人走到类似的结论！ 如果它们在回调里表现还不错，那就说明在正面的宏观环境下，它们只会表现得更好。
英文原文
Glad to hear that about the Serenity Stocks™. I usually like the ones with high volatility, so it’s important to have conviction yourself. I just provide the thought process to help others arrive at a similar conclusion! If they’re doing relatively well in corrections, that just means in positive macro environments, they’ll outperform even more.
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最蠢的抛售理由
这大概是我见过最蠢的抛售理由了……有人居然能给出来？ 我 99% 确定，像 $AAOI 或 $TSEM 这种名字根本不会在乎 OpenAI 目标被内部泄露一次这类事情。 但算法一看到这种主流媒体叙事就会嗨起来。 这就是为什么现在没人再完全相信它们能准确报道的完美例子。 不过话说回来，回调总是健康的，能让后面走出更高的新高。
英文原文
This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided? I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals. But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this. Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting. That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.
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更看重基本面胜过宏观
@Muraum_ 对，我对宏观环境很敏感，尤其是降息概率这些东西。 但我还是更倾向于关注基本面，因为除非供应链里真的出现了有本质破坏性的事情，否则基本面通常跑赢宏观。 例如…… https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
英文原文
@Muraum_ Oh yeah I'm acutely aware of macro environment, especially rate cut odds and such. But i try and focus more on fundamentals more since they outperform macro unless there's something genuinely disruptive in supply chains. eg. https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
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别追高，去找下一轮卡点
这要看情况，这些都是最近才发生的新闻。 如果你不想在当前媒体周期里追高，最干净的做法就是去预测下一轮，比如 CPO 或先进封装。 像 $AMKR、$ASE 已经涨了不少，但台湾还有一些更微妙的名字，比如 PCL 或 Shunsin，其实还没怎么涨。 还是得看具体名字！
英文原文
It depends, this is all recent news. The most cleanest way if you don't want to FOMO in current media cycles is predicting the next one, in CPO or in advanced packaging. Things like $AMKR, $ASE have rallied quite a bit but there's some nuanced names in TW like PCL or Shunsin that haven't really rallied much. Depends on the name!
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看前瞻，而不是看过去
@Qlarividencia 这甚至不只是有没有胆量的问题。更简单地说，是你到底在想未来，还是在想过去。 不过还是得尊重 DNB，因为他们是在看市场的前瞻性变化。
英文原文
@Qlarividencia It's not even having the guts. It's as simple as thinking about the future, not the past. But all the respect to DNB for looking at forward shifts in the market.
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AEHR 还很早，近端已计价
@workoutwithp 从长期看 $AEHR 还非常早。他们才刚在一个客户身上开始量产爬坡…… 而其他客户（比如他们那个一线光收发器客户）会在未来几年陆续补上。 以当前估值来看，我会说近端已经计价得比较充分了。
英文原文
@workoutwithp $AEHR long term is very early. The only started volume ramp with one customer… And others will pick up (like their t1 optical transceiver one) over the next few years. For current valuations, I’d say it’s more priced in near term.
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光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).
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被市场看空反而是机会
你会看到媒体、银行、分析师去做空 $RKLB，因为大家都觉得他们不可能和 SpaceX 竞争。 后来媒体又去做空 $AMD，因为大家觉得他们不可能和 $INTC（现在是 $NVDA）竞争。 但他们当时确实就是那个领域里的领导者，Rocket Lab 小型可重复使用火箭的成功就是证明。 只是很难一开始看出来，因为情绪总是先站在这些小公司对面，直到它们被“验证”之后才转向。 等它们被验证的时候，你已经错过全部上行了。
英文原文
You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX. Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA). They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets. But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated". By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.
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从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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欧洲和美国的定价方式不同
你好，感谢更有建设性的讨论。 但除了欧洲人之外，我还真没见过谁会因为 2.5%、1300 万美元的稀释，就去抱怨一家要登陆纳斯达克的公司。 在美国……我们有些随机的比特币矿工，光为了试图转型和买 GPU，就能搞出 60 亿美元以上的稀释（超过公司一半市值）。所以对超大规模云厂商供应链来说，这点稀释其实非常小。 你也应该明白，你讨论的是美国超大规模云厂商的供应商，对吧？比如 $JBL、$MRVL……最近所有 CPO 时间表都被 $NVDA 提前了。 如果有什么的话，Sivers 是我见过最被低估的光子股票之一，而且绝对还没把上行计价进去。 美国市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，但我能理解欧洲是按过去 12 个月来看的。
英文原文
Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion. But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ. Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny. And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently. If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet. US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.
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不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
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极致收益来自抓住每个卡点
@InvestorCanna @AtlasShrug1 因为如果你能把每一个卡点的动量都抓对，就有可能做到 10,000% 吗？
英文原文
@InvestorCanna @AtlasShrug1 Because you can hit 10,000% if you manage to ride every single bottleneck momentum correctly?
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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别按当前财报看 2027 爬坡股
@PeterSikachev 这是 2027 年的爬坡，我不会按当前财报去判断任何新出现的光子名字。
英文原文
@PeterSikachev It's 2027 ramp, wouldn't judge any upcoming photonic names based on current earnings.