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以富途/老虎监管风险为例说明应尽量避免中国敞口。
感觉 $FUTU 和 $TIGR 有点麻烦？中国政府正在追溯它们的历史收入。 中国基本没有公平法律（尤其是知识产权方面），所以如果政府想做某件事，法院会对它们不利。 因此几乎没有上诉机会，除非它们私下达成隐藏交易。我也不认为这些券商能像 $GOOGL 面对20 decillion 罚款那样处理，因为它们有本地运营。 所以简而言之：这是一个好教训，要尽量避免从 $BABA 到 $PDD 的中国敞口…… 而且正如 $META + Manus + 这次案例所示，即使某些东西看起来便宜，也有原因。 这也是为什么所有美国股票都有溢价，即便有点高。
英文原文
Feels like $FUTU and $TIGR are kinda screwed? The Chinese Gov is going after their historical revenues. There's basically no fair law in China (esp. with IP), so if Gov wants something done, courts will be rigged against them. So no chance of an appeal, unless they make a hidden deal. Also don't think the brokerages are able to pull a $GOOGL like their 20 decillion fine, given local operations So TLDR: Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible... And (as seen with $META + Manus + this case), even if something looks cheap. There's a reason why all the US equities have premiums, even if a little high.
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白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
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中国AI企业受推理算力限制，凸显英伟达在供应链中的绝对主导地位。
有很多报道称中国科技公司（字节跳动、$BABA 等）在推理算力上正面临困境。 中国可能仍未改变其国内自主可控的目标，但推理限制的严峻现实可能迫使他们做出妥协。 这恰恰证明了 $NVDA 的主导地位，即 AI 企业若没有它便无法运转。
英文原文
There were many reports Chinese tech (bytedance, $BABA, etc) were struggling with inference capacity. China still hasn’t likely changed their domestic self-reliance goal but reality of inference limits likely forced their hand. Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can’t function without it