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高盛上调四大云厂商资本开支预期，利好上游半导体供应链。
是的……我认为你们所有上游半导体供应链公司都会涨得更高。 高盛现在预计，2025到2030年四大超大云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支合计将达到5.3万亿美元。 这一数字从一季度财报后的4.5万亿美元上调。
英文原文
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. https://t.co/UtkU1IU2V5
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说明NBIS对应META/MSFT，谷歌通过Fluidstack与CIFR/WULF做机房交易。
回复 @JonahK44：$NBIS 是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 通过 Fluidstack 做了很多交易，从 $CIFR 到 $WULF，获取更多托管机房。我猜是为了接入更多 TPU。
英文原文
@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS
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复盘NBIS跑赢Neocloud篮子，接近1000亿市值预测。
$NBIS 有动漫剧情护甲！ 很高兴听说 Weebius 跑赢了市场和 Neocloud 篮子（$IREN / $CIFR）。 去年 MSFT 财报后，我在 Nebius 第四季度财报后给过一个预测：Nebius 会达到1000亿美元市值。 我们现在坐在600亿美元市值，越来越近了！
英文原文
$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8
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高增长公司需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
回复 @michaelsikand：是的，同意。我认为一般来说，如果你的股票不叫 $MSFT 或不是大型软件公司。 对于 $AAOI 或 $SNDK 这样的超高增长名字，你需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
英文原文
@michaelsikand Yep agreed, i think just in general if your stock isn’t called $MSFT or a big Software name. You would need to calculate your own fwd P/E ratios with hypergrowth names like $AAOI or $SNDK.
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称AAOI是当前美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。
$AAOI 实际上是我现在在美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。 去年我在28美元以低仓位做多，当时我猜它们正在与 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 认证。 业绩后约70美元时我有高信念，因为它们宣布了1.6T 和其他批量订单……
英文原文
$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with
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认为搭载NVDA硬件的微软PC有机会挑战苹果，但Windows UI太差。
热观点：考虑到 $MSFT 笔记本/PC 现在很可能使用 $NVDA 硬件。 他们也许有机会击败 $AAPL。 前提是 Windows OS UI 不要和 Apple OS 的干净程度相比像一堆燃烧的垃圾。 你会以为一家3万亿美元公司到现在应该更懂 UI 设计了？
英文原文
Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i
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Ayar与Wiwynn公告对SIVE CPO机架级部署潜力重大。
Ayar 今天与 Wiwynn 的公告，对 $SIVE 在 CPO -> 机架级部署方面可能非常重要。 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在谈 $GOOGL TPU 部署。 我认为，仅供参考架构来看，每个机架大约需要512+个 SuperNova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要激光阵列供应商（我们预计如此，因为 Macom + Lumentum 已从 Ayar 网站移除）。 即使是中等规模的机架部署，也会对收入非常有意义。 这只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 当前机架级商业化潜力，还不会体现在收入财务中。
英文原文
Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.
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回顾AAOI/AXTI早期被FUD，如今类似CPO转折正在SIVE/Foci上重演。
当我在 $AAOI 约20-30美元做多时： 我以为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在为其 ASIC 项目认证特定光收发器。 结果它更可互换、更可大规模生产。 无论如何，很高兴我关于 $LITE、$AAOI、Innolight、$COHR、$AXTI 的 thesis 表现这么好。 记住：当 $AAOI 在20-30美元时，X 上所有人都说“管理层诈骗”…… 或者在 $AXTI 12美元时说“诈骗公司”。 FUD 非常极端。 现在感觉又像似曾相识……做多下一轮 CPO 架构转变，比如 $SIVE 或 Foci？然后收到同样评论。 我们会看看我的 CPO 多头是否会像 Shunsin 对 Innolight、或 $SIVE 对 $LITE 那样兑现。 无论如何，那些名字现在都已经上涨数百到数千个百分点。
英文原文
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.
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解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
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认为 FLNC 应该更高估值
我其实觉得 $FLNC 应该更值钱。 一个季度里接连拿到 2 个直接 hyperscaler 合同，这个意义非常大。 $MSFT 到 $AMZN 不会签小单。 当然市场通常会等更多实际新闻 / 采购订单数字出来，怕它最后没落实或者比预期低。 但一家公司的确不会无缘无故宣布 2 个 hyperscaler MSA，还说订单会在 Q3 到。 而且一个季度赢得多个 hyperscaler 合同，本身就是后续更多合同的领先指标，尤其是 Fluence BESS 越来越标准化的时候。 考虑到空头比例大约 27.69%，我不确定财报前的空头是否真的敢冒这个险…… 如果像 $GOOGL 这样的 hyperscaler 签下大合同，我觉得有机会来一波历史级上涨。
英文原文
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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AAOI被比作光学版Intel，借超大规模需求东风，2027年收入预测显示严重低估。
我之前在 $AAOI 市值 $6.49B 时就说过同样的话。 现在市值 $11.5B，故事还是一样的： 基本上这就是光学(Optics)版的 $INTC，他们正在将产能从激光晶圆制造扩展到美国本土组装。 他们生产的任何东西都可能被超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)收购。 如果看 2027 年中期预测的 $1.41B 季度收入增长（$471 x 3）与当前市值的对比，当前的财务数据其实不太重要。 以及高盛预测的 9 倍 TAM 增长曲线。
英文原文
I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B. Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story: Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America. Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.
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认为 FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
@AorakiTrading 对，如果没有拿到 2 份 hyperscaler 协议，我不会去建仓。 像 $NBIS 那样的一份大型 $MSFT 合同，就足以让这种小型能源公司发生巨大重估。 但他们拿到的是 2 份，不止 1 份。
英文原文
@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements. One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC. But they had 2, not just 1
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在财报后看多 FLNC，认为双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
同意大方向，$FLNC 在财报后按 30 亿美元市值看其实挺有吸引力的。 能在这么小的市值上拿到 2 份直接 hyperscaler 合同，非常罕见。 $56 亿以上 backlog 已经降低了公司增长的风险，还不算新的 hyperscaler backlog，比如 $GOOGL 或 $MSFT。 这些 hyperscaler 合同是框架协议，很可能会在今年 Q3 很快转换，而且还没计入当前数字。 一旦公布，就是重大正面催化，类似半导体公司里的 qualification -> volume ramp。 Citi 分析师说："hyperscaler 订单的可能性会压过这一季度的几乎一切。我们预计公告会带来正面反应"。 我猜它们会在未来 3 个月内公布 hyperscaler 订单，之后大概率会被重估，所以我上了这艘船，把它当成短期催化交易。 如果按软件业务扩张后净利润约 2.88 亿美元（营收 60 亿美元，毛利率 13.0%）计算，2027 年前瞻市盈率大概 11.6 倍。 当前股价比 2 月价格低了 50%，但考虑到 hyperscaler 和 backlog 都在降低风险，我觉得这是一个很好的入场点（NFA）。
英文原文
Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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Lightmatter 似乎在用 SIVE 激光器
从这些参考资料看……Lightmatter 似乎确实在用 $SIVE 的激光器？ 这是全新的信息发现，对 Sivers 来说极其正面。 Lightmatter 是一家体量巨大的私营龙头（2024 年估值大约 44 亿美元），而 $TSM、$GFS、$TSEM、$AMKR 和 $ASX 都在扩展它的光学项目。 而 Lightmatter 的确需要光源…… $SIVE 还恰好和 $LITE 一起出现在 $GFS 的激光源供应商名单里，所以这些线索开始拼起来了？ 终端用户很可能就是你的超大规模云厂商，比如 $MSFT、$GOOGL（他们投资了）、$META 等，通过 Lightmatter-GUC 等路径进入。 我不认为市场已经把这些都定价进去了，因为整个供应链 BOM 都非常保密，而且很多只是推测。 但当 CPO 和下一代光子架构开始放量时，量产爬坡带来的营收会突然出现在资产负债表上。
英文原文
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
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MSFT 上游供应链脆弱点
业绩不错，也很高兴看到 $MSFT 在加速美国 AI 基础设施建设。 不过，微软漏掉了一个关键脆弱点，我想听听你的看法。 微软有没有什么措施，来防止地缘政治对手把你们的上游供应链收购掉？ 比如说，RoboTechnik 收购了微软依赖的 ficonTEC。 微软依赖的自动化组装和测试设备，现在已经落到地缘政治对手手里了。 这看起来非常危险，而超大规模云厂商可能还没意识到基础设施所有权方面正在发生什么。
英文原文
Hey great earnings and nice to see $MSFT accelerating US AI infrastructure. However, there is one critical vulnerability Microsoft is missing, was wondering if I could get your take. Is there anything Microsoft is doing to prevent geopolitical adversaries from buying out your upstream supply chains? For example, a company RoboTechnik acquired ficonTEC, which Microsoft relies on. The automated assembly and testing machines that Microsoft relies on are now owned by geopolitical adversary. This just seems very dangerous and hyperscalers might be missing what's happening with ownership of infrastructure.
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超大规模云厂商 capex 仍然很强
我已经帮你把情况盯好了。 超大规模云厂商 capex 支出的 TLDR（除了 $TSM 之外的信号）。 来自 $MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的财报： 上游半导体供应链会继续起飞。 $META：2026 财年 capex 为 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元 修正后的 Q1 财报：capex 提高到 1250 亿至 1450 亿美元。 -> 更高的零部件价格（涨价） -> 激进的 AI 基础设施支出 -> 定制模型训练 $MSFT：实际为 319 亿美元，而不是（352.9 亿美元），但原因是供应链瓶颈，而不是资源不足。 我们还在等 $AMZN 的确认，不过他们今年年初的原始 capex 预期大约是 2000 亿美元，来自 Jassy 的备忘录。 所以你可以放心，所有半导体供应链名字在下个季度大概率还是会继续起飞，因为有太多 capex 被灌进去。 然后还有新任美联储主席，他对 AI 和降息都非常积极，而 Jerome 在后面保持平稳（市场大概会喜欢这个）。
英文原文
I've monitored the situation for you. TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM). From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings: Upstream semi supply chains go brrr. $META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised. -> Higher component prices (price hikes) -> Aggressive AI infra spending -> Custom Model Training $MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources. Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year. So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them. Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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ALRIB 仍在等待定价
关于 $ALRIB 没有新消息，我还是多头。 我只是让市场自己定价，不给目标位。 我倒是觉得，在 3 亿美元市值时，这家给 $MSFT 量子业务和其他量子点项目（比如 QD……以及硅光应用）供货的机器供应商，可能很快会吸引一些机构注意。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
There’s no new news with $ALRIB, I’m still long. I’m just letting markets price it in, not giving any targets. I do think at $300m MC, the machine supplier to $MSFT quantum, and other quantum dot programs like QD… and silicon photonic applications might get some institutional attention soon. We’ll see.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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ASMC 也是 DPA 受益者
是的，我自己也持有一些 $ASMC。他们是昨天“国防生产法”的一个大受益者，因为他们和“先进导体”和“电力控制电子”有关。 我还找到了他们的 HTS 线材业务和 $MSFT 的联系。电网板块也应该会受益。
英文原文
Yeah I own some $ASMC. They're a large beneficiary of the "Defense Production Act" yesterday since they have links to "advanced conductors" and "power control electronics.". Found links to $MSFT for HTS technology for their HTS wire segment. Grid segment should be a beneficiary too.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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ARM 因 CPU 瓶颈受益
在新的瓶颈重新回到 CPU 的背景下，我看好 $ARM。微软的材料里也显示，编排 / RAG 这类东西需要 CPU。 但我预测本地推理的一部分会越来越多地由 CPU 来处理……随着 Gemma 之类的模型未来变得更轻量。 不是每个机器人都需要解开宇宙的奥秘。 数据中心会需要海量的传统 CPU 算力（AWS Graviton、$GOOGL Axion 和 $MSFT Cobalt 都是 ARM 架构）。 $META 和 OpenAI 也是 AGI CPU 的买家。 而 AI 还会继续下沉到边缘端。 150 亿美元的年收入目标……现在看起来越来越合理了？
英文原文
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?
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IREN 仍是差价
现在还有人继续看多像 $IREN 这种 F 级 neocloud，真是奇怪。 在 60 亿美元稀释悬压下？ 而 $NBIS 现在和 $ORCL、$MSFT 一起看起来都已经去风险了？ https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi
英文原文
How are there people still long on an F-tier Neocloud like $IREN. Amid a $6,000,000,000 dilution? When $NBIS is up there with $ORCL and $MSFT looking derisked? https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi
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SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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做多 $ALRIB，看好机构和Apollo会入场收购，散户领先一步
我在 $ALRIB 做多。其他关于 Riber 或光子学板块的看空帖子，我不怎么看重，因为我对自己的投资论点很有信心。 Apollo 明天就能轻松花掉 5 亿美元，眼睛都不眨一下，直接买下为 $MSFT / 超大规模云商量子以及其他量子点项目服务的关键环节。 这就是我说的抢先机构，我非常确信机构会想要持有一定比例的股份，但散户在这个标的上是早期的。
英文原文
I’m long on $ALRIB, I don’t place much value on other bear posts on Riber or photonics names since I’m confident in my own thesis. Apollo can literally blow $500m tomorrow, not bat an eye, and buy the chokepoint for $MSFT / hyperscaler quantum and other Quantum Dot programs. This is what I mean by frontrunning institutions, I’m very confident they will want to own a % but retail is early to the name.
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MRVL 和 GOOGL 更关键
@StocksAREnuts 我在 $80 的时候就看好 $MRVL，直到现在也是，主要是因为 $MSFT Maia。 但如果 $GOOGL 成为 2028 年之后有更强收入可见性的客户，那帮助也很大。 它们都还是基于 CPO / AI 光子学那条线。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia. But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.
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SIVE 下一站像 LITE
谢谢，我之前确实说过 $SIVE 看起来像下一个 $LITE！ 去年我因为 Google TPU 看好 Lumentum，而市场通常会更喜欢 Google 生态而不是 Amazon 生态。 但如果 Apple 在 CPO 上放量，市场会重新认识这整条线。
英文原文
Thanks, I did say $SIVE looked like the next $LITE! I went long on Lumentum last year because of the Google TPU and markets tend to like Google's ecosystem a bit more than $AMZN or $MSFT. Of course, a lot can happen in the next 2 years so this is speculative but likely supply chain mapping, we'll find out what happens.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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分析ALRIB作为超大规模云厂商关键供应商的量子/硅光投资逻辑，预期被重估。
其实不需要对 $ALRIB 写得很详细吧？ >Riber 与 $VECO 在 MBE 设备上形成有效的盈利双头垄断格局，此前交易时远期倍数较低。 >从公开信息发现 $MSFT Quantum 是 Riber 的核心超大规模云厂商买家 >其他客户包括 $IQE、QD Laser（量子点）、IntelliEPI 等。 思考过程： 还有哪些市值低于10亿美元的公司直接向 $GOOGL、$MSFT 等超大规模云厂商供应产品，用于他们的前沿(frontier)项目？ 而且这些供应商是否关键到无法被替代？ 除了 $AEHR 我真的想不出其他公司，但 $AEHR 现在市值已经从6亿美元涨到23亿美元了…… 所以我认为 $ALRIB 对于量子/硅光子领域的敞口很有吸引力。 如果一家市值约3亿美元的盈利公司正在为超大规模云厂商的前沿量子项目提供支持…… 很可能在未来某个时间点被重新估值到三位数（美元）。
英文原文
It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB? > Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples. > $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery > $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it. Thought process: What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs? And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced? Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m... So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure. If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program… Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.
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说 ALRIB 是量子链条里最喜欢的名字。
$ALRIB 是我在这个赛道里最喜欢的名字，尤其是在市场发现 $MSFT Quantum 会从他们那里采购之后。 现在还稍微有点早，但做机器设备销售的公司会受益于今天整个研发 capex 周期，而且你不需要在 $IONQ、$RGTI、$QBTS、$GOOGL 或其他赢家之间二选一。
英文原文
$ALRIB is my favorite for that sector, especially now that markets found out $MSFT Quantum buys from them. It's still a bit early, but the machine sellers benefit from the entire R&D capex cycle today and you don't need to pick between $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS, $GOOGL or others winning.
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晒出自己年内 +1337.81% 的成绩。
我只是分享我的经历和想法。 大家给我太多信用了，其实每个人都是在做自己的交易。 至于我……今天收盘后，我今年年内收益到了 +1,337.81%。 $MSFT、$META 和 $RDDT 今天开始反弹，对我也有一点帮助。 这也正是我为什么相信：如果你的想法真的足够好， 你完全可以在市场里靠做多把钱赚完。 而不是每年收 2000 多美元的付费墙，然后再因为别人免费帮散户而酸。
英文原文
I'm just sharing my journey and thoughts. People give me too much credit, everyone takes their own trades. As for me... I finished the day up +1,337.81% YTD. $MSFT, $META and $RDDT beginning their recoveries today helped a bit. This is exactly why I believe if your ideas were genuinely good enough: You can make all your money going long on them in the markets. Instead of paywalling them for $2000+ a year then getting salty off others helping retail for free.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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感谢 MSFT 和 META 提供了买点。
谢谢 $MSFT 和 $META。 这次超跌给出了买入机会，当时： -> Microsoft 跌到 360 美元，Meta 跌到 525 美元。 你没必要精确踩到最低点。 但这次反弹大概给很多人都赚出了几代人的财富。 你最后有进场吗？ https://t.co/gII17cJo19
英文原文
Thank you $MSFT and $META. The selloff overreaction presented a buying opportunity when: -> Microsoft hit $360 and Meta hit $525. You didn’t need to time the exact bottom. But the recovery probably minted generational wealth to many. Did you end up taking positions? https://t.co/gII17cJo19
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团队协作，补齐了 MSFT quantum 相关资料。
@duedilligently 这是团队协作，为了公共利益，@latent_value7 找到了所有关于 $MSFT quantum 关联的信息。
英文原文
@duedilligently Team effort for public benefit, @latent_value7 found all the info regarding $MSFT quantum links.
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回顾自己一次性命中了 15 只翻倍股。
对，就是这样……我怎么会这么准确地找出来并做多。 整整十五只不同的股票。 8+7。9+6。10+5。 在 $ALRIB 之后，那个 $MSFT Quantum 供应商又涨了 113%，这样一来我今年命中的多头一共到了 15 只。 这居然已经带来了年内三位数回报？？？ 没有付费墙，而且我在它们启动前就把所有东西都发出来了。 我就是在硬把散户从永久底层里往外拉。
英文原文
Yep… How did I call out and long. FIFTEEN DIFFERENT STOCKS. 8+7. 9+6. 10+5. After $ALRIB, the $MSFT Quantum supplier went up 113%, that hit 15 different longs. That returned Triple Digits year to date??? No paywall, and I've posted everything before it moved. Hard carrying retail out of the permanent underclass.
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越看越觉得 ALRIB 很有吸引力。
$ALRIB 这只我开始越看越顺眼了。 首先，它有 $MSFT Quantum 作为核心 hyperscaler 客户。 然后它还有像 QD Laser 这样的量子点客户……以及像 $IQE 这样的光子晶圆代工客户。 而且它是盈利的，还在分红…… 在 MBE 领域也是真正的双寡头。 再加上新的硅光机器突破，订单簿还在加速增长…… 我一直把 $LWLG 和 Riber 这种东西拿来对比，然后就一直在想： 这在当前价格下，难道不就是很有吸引力吗？
英文原文
$ALRIB is starting to grow on me. First they have $MSFT Quantum as their core hyperscaler customer. Then they have Quantum Dot like QD Laser… and photonics foundries like $IQE as customers. And it’s profitable + paying dividends… And a genuine duopoly in the MBE space. And accelerating order book growth with a new breakthrough in silicon photonics machines.. I keep comparing $LWLG with stuff like Riber, then I keep thinking: Isn’t this just highly compelling at current prices?
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说市场喜欢发现 MSFT 是秘密客户。
原来市场很喜欢在发现 $MSFT 是你的秘密客户时给你加价？ 我不认识多少市值低于 10 亿美元、却直接给 hyperscaler 供货的公司。 $ALRIB 在信息发现之后，看起来正沿着一条缓慢胜利的上升路线走。 https://t.co/palenXPLJS
英文原文
Turns out markets like it when they find out $MSFT is your secret customer? I don’t know many companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers. $ALRIB looks like it’s on a slow victory march upward after information discovery. https://t.co/palenXPLJS
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回顾自己多次抢跑机构的 thesis 命中。
我不是早就告诉过你们，散户完全可以抢在机构前面吗，anon？？ -> 两个月后，Point72 正在高位猛烈买入 $IQE…… 在我那篇关于 latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE 供应商的 thesis 之后。 -> Apollo 真的把 NSG 买下来了，也就是我指出的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃供应商。 -> 我最近还找到了很多其他名字，比如 $SIVE，它是 $MRVL / $JBL 的激光供应商，而 Riber 是 $MSFT 的未知量子供应商（还借助了一位朋友）。 我就是喜欢把信息发现 / 综合整理民主化，先给散户，而不是卖给机构或者藏在 2 万美元以上的付费墙后面。 股票本来就是真正的正和游戏，散户这次终于能第一次领先。
英文原文
Didn’t I tell you all it’s possible retail can frontrun institutions anon?? -> Point72 is aggressively buying up $IQE 2 months later at ATHs... After my latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE supplier thesis post. -> Apollo literally bought out NSG, the $TSM COUPE glass provider I identified. -> And I've identified many others like $SIVE, the $MRVL / $JBL supplier to Riber the unknown quantum supplier to $MSFT (with the help of a friend) recently. I happen to like democratizing information discovery/synthesis to retail investors at the very beginning… Instead of selling analysis to institutions or behind $20000+ paywalls. Stocks are genuinely positive sum where retail can get the lead for the first time.
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说先发现 MSFT 是 ALRIB 的隐藏客户很关键。
@LeaderInvests 很简单，就是先在整个市场都不知道之前，找到一个朋友发现 $MSFT 是 $ALRIB 的隐藏 hyperscaler 客户。
英文原文
@LeaderInvests It’s as simple as finding a friend who figures out $MSFT is the hidden hyperscaler customer of $ALRIB before the entire market knows
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量子点激光投资应优先选择MBE设备供应商如Riber，比下游纯激光公司更早受益于超大规模云厂商资本开支周期。
如果你想交易超大规模云厂商的资格认证周期……以及像QD Laser（TYO: 6613）这样年内涨幅达226%的量子点激光：IMO最安全的方式是在早期就关注他们未披露的MBE机器供应商，如$ALRIB。然后当他们从资格认证阶段转向批量订单时，再转向纯激光公司。我之前提到过，$MSFT量子的Riber未披露的超大规模云厂商客户。但QD Laser（越来越受欢迎）在量子点项目上也严重依赖Riber。我不看好进入批量生产阶段（比如$AIXA对比实际的批量生产商），因为设备厂商无法捕获下游收入。但如果你想从资本开支研发周期中获益……比如QD Laser吸收资本开支成本（支付给Riber）来建设产能，$ALRIB、$ASML、$AIXA这类公司的财务数据通常会更早反映在资产负债表上，所以你不需要等2-3年才看到生产订单。
英文原文
If you want to trade hyperscaler qualification cycles… And quantum dot like QD Laser (TYO: 6613) up 226% YTD: IMO safest way to do it are their unknown MBE machine suppliers like $ALRIB early on. Then pivot to pure play lasers later when they move from qualification -> volume orders. I mentioned earlier $MSFT quantum was Riber’s undisclosed hyperscaler customer. But QD laser (getting popular) is heavily reliant on Riber too for their quantum dot program. I’m not a fan when it comes time to volume production (eg. $AIXA vs the actual volume producers) since machines don’t capture downstream revenue. But if you want to benefit from capex R&D cycles… eg. QD Laser absorbing capex costs (paying Riber) to build capacity $ALRIB, $ASML, $AIXA type companies usually hits the balance sheet much earlier so you don’t need to wait 2-3 years for production orders.
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认为 Riber 很有意思，既有量子敞口，又有 Microsoft 作为主要客户。
@Mellokhai 如果你喜欢 $VECO、又想要量子敞口，Riber 也很有意思。 更少见的是，他们的主要客户还是像 $MSFT 这样的超大规模客户，估值只有 27 倍市盈率，而且还是盈利的。 不过量子点激光器现在还稍微有点早……
英文原文
@Mellokhai Riber is also very interesting if you like $VECO and want quantum exposure. Rare as well to have a hyperscaler like $MSFT as your main customer, trades at 27 p/e, and is profitable. Quantum dot lasers are a little early though…
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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发现量子计算设备公司可能获微软采购，与AMSL/AIXA对标。
他们制造量子计算机器和量子点激光器。这个细分领域的对标公司是$AIXA或$AMSL。@latent_value7通过分析LinkedIn帖子发现微软量子($MSFT)在向他们采购，这只是信息发现帖。我不知道市场对微软作为客户这件事会给予多少估值。
英文原文
They make the machines for quantum computing and quantum dot lasers. This niche's equivalent to $AIXA or $AMSL. @latent_value7 discovered that $MSFT Quantum was buying them from linkedin post machine analysis, and this is just the information discovery post. Idk how much value markets put on Microsoft as a customer.
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解释 ALRIB 与微软量子相关，但市场目前可能还没给出合理定价。
@MarginCallMick 这只是围绕 $MSFT Quantum 和 $ALRIB 的新信息发现。市场怎么给它们和超大规模客户的关联定价，我也控制不了。 现在很多事情本来就是算法驱动的。
英文原文
@MarginCallMick This is just new information discovery around $MSFT Quantum and $ALRIB. Can't control how market prices in that connection to a hyperscaler. A lot of things are just algorithmically driven nowadays.
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认为微软量子可能在买 Riber，其量子设备业务很有看点。
$MSFT 看起来像是在秘密买入 Riber < $ALRIB >，用于 Microsoft Quantum。 更广泛的市场和算法大概还不知道这种关联。 MBE 对量子计算、量子点激光器、VCSEL 和硅光子都很重要。 但如果 Microsoft Quantum： -> 开始向这家欧洲设备制造商采购 那长期影响会很大。 量子仍然非常早期，早期产业的风险也很实在。 但如果这家公司看起来像量子领域的 $AIXA，而且作为和 $VECO 并列的 MBE 双寡头之一，前瞻市盈率大约 27 倍并且还在盈利，那它就挺有意思的。 从公开的 LinkedIn 线索来看，美国超大规模客户正在使用 Riber 的 MBE 设备来制造前沿量子芯片。 至少这能验证这家公司作为一项技术的重要性。 而且也让它看起来更有机会在未来拿到量子计算和量子点资本开支周期。
英文原文
$MSFT looks like a secret buyer of Riber < $ALRIB > for Microsoft Quantum. The broader market and algorithms likely don’t know this connection yet. MBEs are important for quantum computing, quantum dot lasers, VCSELs, and silicon photonics. But the long-term implications are sizable if Microsoft Quantum: -> Are starting to buy from this European equipment manufacturer Quantum is still very early and risks to early stage industries are material. But since this company looks like an $AIXA for Quantum and trades at a profitable ~27x est. forward P/E, as a duopoly for MBE with $VECO, it looks interesting. From open LinkedIn intelligence, having a US hyperscaler use Riber MBE equipment to fab frontier quantum chips. At the very least helps validate the company’s importance as a technology. And makes it appear well positioned to capture quantum computing and quantum dot capex cycles in the near future.
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通过LinkedIn追踪发现$MSFT量子项目的未披露供应商，分析其在量子MBE设备领域的双寡头地位及财务状况。
所以彩蛋来了： $MSFT的Quantum项目似乎是一家未公开披露的超大规模云厂商... 而它秘密地从一家公司采购——根据LinkedIn追踪，这家公司的名称听起来像是和"Prime Ribs"有关。 -> Microsoft Quantum发布了照片 -> 放大左上角并放大 -> Prime Ribs机器验证确认？ 在量子机器的MBE（分子束外延）领域，他们与$VECO形成了双头垄断（可以类比$AXIA在光子学领域的地位，但这是针对量子领域）。 他们今天发布了财报： -> 已经盈利。财报发布后约25倍PE。 -> 资产负债表非常健康 -> 用于周边领域，比如硅光子学（例如Fujitsu的量子点分拆公司） -> IntelliEPI（除$MSFT外）是知名的买家 一些粉丝主动联系我了解这家公司的名字（DD发现功劳不归我）。免责声明：我认为他们的分析很有启发性，并且持有仓位。 -> 全部功劳归于@latent_value7发现了$MSFT的关联 -> 功劳归于@TheSarge_很早就让我注意到了这个名字 提醒一下：尽管我分享这些精彩发现，我不建议任何人根据我的帖子建仓。 我只是很惊讶，有人在X平台上发现了一家超大规模云厂商从前沿量子项目的小型供应商那里秘密采购。
英文原文
So the easter egg: $MSFT Quantum appears to be an undisclosed hyperscaler... That is secretly buying from a company that sounds with Prime Ribs according to LinkedIn tracking. -> Microsoft Quantum posted photos -> Zoom in to top left and magnified -> Prime Ribs machine checks out? It's a duopoly in the MBE space with $VECO for quantum machines (think $AXIA for photonics but for Quantum). They reported earnings today: -> It's profitable. ~25 P/E ratio after ER release. -> Very healthy balance sheet -> Used for adjacents, like silicon photonics (eg. Fujitsu's quantum dot spinoff) -> IntelliEPI (aside from $MSFT) well known buyer Some followers reached out about this name (not taking any credit for DD or finding it). Disclosure: I found their ideas interesting and have positions. -> Full Credit to @latent_value7 finding $MSFT links -> Credit to @TheSarge_ for bringing the name to my attention early on A reminder: Even though I share these cool ideas, I don't recommend anyone take positions based on my posts. I'm just impressed that people on X found that a hyperscaler buying from a tiny company for their frontier quantum program.
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认为韩国半导体回暖，且在降息预期升温下，跌深的资产可能值得回补。
三星和 SK 海力士都重新回到接近历史高点，$EWY 也跟着走强。 把一些因为宏观跌得很惨的名字买回来，比如 $MSFT（-21%）、$RDDT（-36%）或 $HOOD（-31%）…… 或者像这里的 $ETH 或 $IBIT 之类，也许都不算最糟糕的选择。 尤其是今天衍生品市场把 2-3 次降息的概率又推高了。 看起来市场和衍生品这次真的相信 TACO Tuesday 了。
英文原文
Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit. Buying back some names that crashed from macro like $MSFT (-21%), $RDDT(-36%), or $HOOD (-31%)… Or others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea. Especially as rate cut odds (2-3) spiked on derivative markets today. Looks like markets and derivatives really believe in TACO Tuesday this time.
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用订单和 backlog 说明变压器 / 开关设备是数据中心的关键瓶颈。
当前瓶颈：变压器 / 开关设备。 交易思路：在 184 加元买入 Hammond（约 22 亿加元 / 15 亿美元）的多头。 它们主导的市场包括： - 变压器（干式，多年瓶颈，约占市场 23%） - 开关设备（2-3 年瓶颈） - 还生产液体型产品（5 年瓶颈，规模更大） 我个人预计其价格会像 NAND 一样上调，因为 $AMZN、$MSFT 等公司都在争夺配额。 你可能见过这类说法： “美国一半的数据中心建设被推迟或取消，增长受限于电力基础设施短缺”…… 再往下看： “为了解决短缺……加拿大、墨西哥……成了 AI 数据中心高压变压器的最大供应国”…… 猜猜谁在加拿大的 Guelph、墨西哥的 Monterrey 3 和 4，以及美国都有布局？ Hammond。 再看文章引用的，为什么超大规模客户的数据库扩张正在崩掉： “这些挫折背后的主要原因，是关键电气组件的可获得性——比如变压器、开关设备。” 机构大概都在看 Powell、Eaton 之类的公司……但他们可能不知道？ 这些公司其实会买 Hammond 的变压器再装进自己的开关设备里（“大量卖给数据中心、开关设备制造商”）。 它们在变压器市场的份额其实很大（例如干式约 23%）。 最有说服力的信号： -> 2025 年 backlog 同比增长 122%。我们可以据此推测超过 10 亿加元。 例如，公司 2025 年销售额为 8.98 亿加元，产能已经顶到上限。管理层说，2025 年第三季度末的订单价值相当于整个第三季度 backlog 的 53%。 考虑到 2025 年第四季度营收是 2.54 亿，而 backlog “翻了一倍多”，我们可以推算总 backlog 超过 10 亿加元。 另外： “去年毛利率压缩是因为墨西哥工厂建设，但预计毛利率都会上升，工厂扩建会在 2026 年第二季度转化为加速收入增长”，也就是现在。 下行风险在于原材料成本（铜、电工钢）如果再次上升，不过既然处在这种瓶颈里，他们是可以提价的。 我个人的 2026 年前瞻市盈率估计大概是 18-21 倍，2027 年不到 15 倍，因为有产能爬坡。 但如果他们能一边提价，一边接到超大规模客户的紧急订单，前瞻市盈率甚至有可能到个位数。不过那可能会和新并购混在一起。 总之它还是很便宜。 简单总结一下： $AMZN、$MSFT、$META、$GOOGL、$ORCL 的数据中心正在被变压器 / 开关设备短缺卡住。 市场似乎错过了这家市场份额很大的小公司，尽管它有 backlog 可见度，而且随着产能扩张上线，营收还在增长。 我个人觉得很有吸引力，所以建了多头仓位。 当然，这只是我的个人想法，做决定前请自己 DYOR。
英文原文
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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作者对被Bezinga称为Meme交易员表示不满，强调自己研究AI供应链并非投机。
今天我因为之前嘲笑Jim Cramer而被Bezinga报道了。他们引用了我的话：「谢谢拯救了$MSFT，Jim」。但他们在标题里叫我「Meme交易员」……我还不知道我在AI供应链瓶颈上从$AXTI到$LITE的所有多头都是meme股？不过我一直很感谢新闻报道……特别是像Bezinga上关于Cramer或Yahoo Finance上关于Burry的评论。
英文原文
I got cited by Bezinga today after I made fun of Jim Cramer. They included my quote: “Thanks for saving $MSFT Jim”. But in the title they called me a Meme Trader… I didn’t know all my longs in AI supply chain bottlenecks from $AXTI to $LITE were memes? Always appreciate the news coverage though… especially if it’s comments around Cramer on Bezinga or Burry on Yahoo Finance.
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消费级光子市场比AI数据中心更大，光子公司不应只盯大客户订单。
消费级激光剑产品的市场规模比AI数据中心还大。说真的不明白这些光子公司在干嘛，被$MSFT、$AMZN的超大规模数据中心订单分散了注意力。
英文原文
@tomszczypka Consumer lightsabers have a bigger TAM than AI DCs. Not sure what these photonic companies are doing, getting distracted by $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler orders tbh.
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向 Jim Cramer 道谢，调侃他帮 MSFT 省钱。
@jimcramer 谢谢你帮 $MSFT 省钱，Jim。
英文原文
@jimcramer Thank you for saving $MSFT Jim
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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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反问 AAOI 直连这些巨头客户还有什么更好的客户可言。
@Jornka329996 $AAOI 直接连着 $ORCL、$MSFT、$AMZN，甚至可能还有 $META，还需要什么新客户？ 这大概已经是他们能拿到的最好客户了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 How is $AAOI direct to $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, and maybe $META needing new clients? Those are probably the best they can get lol
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认为即使大盘再跌，AAOI 也可能跑赢。
@Ungrate11057544 就算 $SPY、$MSFT、$AMZN 再跌 20%，我也还是觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢市场。
英文原文
@Ungrate11057544 Let's just say even if $SPY, $MSFT, $AMZN crashes another 20% I expect $AAOI to outperform the market.
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不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和自己一样的 AAOI，因为他们会放大波动。
这就是为什么我不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和我一样的 $AAOI。 他们是做波动交易的，尤其喜欢搞散户最爱的名字，然后触发止损和恐慌。 但如果你知道自己持有什么： 一家美国公司，6.69 十亿美元市值，做的是整条收发器供应链： 从激光 -> 设计 -> 组装。 如果 $MSFT、$AMZN、$ORCL 这些公司真的会把他们能买的都买了，那对我个人来说，这个价格简直是捡漏。 对高 beta 股票来说，入场前把 conviction 和仓位管理好特别重要。 否则你就会一遍又一遍地在底部割肉、在顶部追高。
英文原文
And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI. They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic. If you know what you own though: $6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain: From Laser -> Design -> Assembly. With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally. With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade. Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.
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认为 SIVE 可能被多方盯上，也可能因持股结构保持独立。
洗澡时冒出来的一个想法…… SIVE 现在可能已经被 $QCOM、$MRVL、$AVGO、AlChip、联发科、$AMZN、$META、$MSFT 的风投部门盯上了？ 既然现在大家都公开知道了，Broadcom 只要花 3.5 亿美元就能买下 Marvell 在光子学上的咽喉点（Amazon / Microsoft 的 ASIC 项目）…… 或者 Qualcomm 也可以用同样的方式收购 $SIVE，然后在收购 Alphawave 之后把激光 IP 做垂直整合。 又或者……超大规模客户会通过持有足够多股份，想办法让 $SIVE 继续保持独立？
英文原文
It’s funny a shower thought… Probably put $SIVE on the radar for $QCOM, $MRVL, $AVGO, AlChip, Mediatek, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT venture arms now? Since everyone publicly knows now Broadcom can just go and buy Marvell’s photonics chokepoint vulnerability (Amazon/Microsoft ASIC programs) for a rounding error of $350m… Or Qualcomm can do the same buying $SIVE then vertically integrate laser IP after Alphawave aquisition. Or maybe… hyperscalers figure out a way $SIVE remains independent by owning enough shares?
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Sivers作为稀缺独立cw激光供应商，战略价值远超当前市值估值。
我个人看到 $SIVE 下跌风险较小的原因： 像 $AVGO 这样 $MRVL 的竞争对手可以直接收购 Sivers，从而控制其近中期光子学路线图... 估值约 2.9 亿美元... 如果再便宜一点的话。 Gemini 的回应很有趣： "像 Broadcom 这样以约 2.9 亿美元收购 Sivers Photonics 来扼制 Marvell 新收购的 Celestial AI 路线图不仅仅是战略行为； 这是一场投资回报率高得离谱的供应链战争。" "花点小钱，竞争对手就能控制上游光源，把握直接的 IP 路线图，并让试图整合 Celestial AI 的 Marvell 付出数十亿美元的机会成本。" 对于 $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN 等超大规模云服务商来说，投资 Sivers 来确保其共封装光学(CPO)供应链可能比让它被竞争对手收购更有利。 就像 $QLCM 与 Alphawave 针对 OpenLight 生态所做的操作一样。 我的观点是：$SIVE 作为全球少数保持独立运营的 cw 激光器供应商之一的关键瓶颈地位... 其固有的价值远超其市值。 对冲基金因「MC」和瑞典交易所上市限制无法投资从而压低估值... 对于收购方或散户投资者来说反而是一种因祸得福。
英文原文
The reason I personally see less downside risk with $SIVE: A competitor to $MRVL like $AVGO can just buy Sivers outright and their near-medium term photonics roadmap… At ~$290m… if it gets any cheaper. Gemini responses were interesting: “ A competitor like Broadcom buying Sivers Photonics for ~$290M to choke Marvell’s newly acquired Celestial AI roadmap isn't just strategic; It is supply chain warfare with an absurdly high ROI. “ “ For pocket change, a competitor could buy the upstream light source, control the immediate IP roadmap, and inflict billions of dollars worth of opportunity cost on Marvell right as they try to integrate Celestial AI “ It’s likely better for hyperscalers like $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN to invest in Sivers to secure their CPO supply chain then have it being bought out by one of their competitors. Like what happened already with $QLCM and Alphawave for OpenLight. My opinion: $SIVE chokepoint as one of the few projects remaining independent cw laser suppliers in the world… Is inherently way more valuable than their marketcap. Hedge funds not being able to invest due to “MC” and Sweden listing to keep valuations depressed… is a blessing in disguise for both acquisitions or retail investors.
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把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
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提出让 SIVE 沿光子链条扩张 TAM、借资本注入和拆分推进 ELS 模块规模化。
难道 $SIVE 就不能学 $LITE 那样，把 TAM 往 ELS 整个堆栈一路往下扩吗？ 我已经开始想起早期的 $LITE 了（Oclaro、NeoPhotonics、Cloud Light）…… 下面是我的论点/设想： Sivers 如何把大约 300-400 美元的 ELS（来自 50-100 美元的阵列）吃下来，并成长为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 路径大概是： -> Sivers 需要融资。 -> 拿 NRE 预付款或者 PIPE（比如 $AXTI/Northland） -> 直接告诉市场：“$AVGO 和 $LITE 会把你们定制 AI 集群的利润率卡住。” ----> 让 $META / $AMZN / $MSFT 投资注资，来支持未来 ASIC 集群的多来源供应，因为他们会害怕。 尤其是 $NVDA 已经出资 40 亿美元来保障从 $LITE 和 $COHR 的供应……再加上当前 EML 产能瓶颈带来的 PTSD。 其实比大家想的容易。 -> 把光子学业务分拆到美国（市场不喜欢给老牌公司投资）。 - - - - - > 这件事大概率会在 2026 年奏效，因为 CPO / photonics 现在是热潮，而不再是 2024 年到 2025 年初那样。 -> 筹到足够的钱后，自动化晶圆探针机，并给模块 NPI 提供资金。 -> 采用轻资本 fab-lite 测试模型：自建探针卡并内部测试，但把 capex 交给 OSAT。 -> 收购硅光封装 IP（或者继续和 O-Net、$POET 做 JDM）。 -> 保留 Glasgow 的 InP 晶圆厂，用于内部测试、迭代和原始外延。 -> 把光刻、刻蚀等环节外包给 Win Semi 和其他厂商（别自己做重资本环节）。 -> 然后 $SIVE 只要把经过测试的激光器和封装 IP 交给 $FN。 然后就成了。 你拥有了一个独立、可大规模生产、高毛利的 ELS 模块，而 ELSFP 也会成为标准。 之后他们还能做别的事，比如购买 DSP 设计并开始整合技术栈。 不再是每个 10 美元的激光芯片乘 6，做成 50 到 100 美元的激光阵列，而是变成 400 美元的可热插拔模块。 基本上，他们的起点是掌握光子学里激光层面的一个瓶颈护城河…… 然后他们就能像 $LITE 当年那样，往下游做 EML 和光模块。 TLDR： Sivers（$SIVE）在世界正向 CPO 转型的这个时点，持有一个稀缺、独立的 InP 激光瓶颈点。 全球只有少数几家独立公司能做这件事，比如 $SIVE（例如住友、$LITE、$COHR）。 但当然，他们需要资金、需要正确的愿景，才能实现 TAM 扩张。
英文原文
Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
英文原文
My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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引用特朗普 1988 年对伊朗的强硬表述，担心市场在计价他不会 TACO。
这是特朗普 1988 年接受采访时谈伊朗的话： “我会在 Kharg 岛上狠狠干一票。我会进去把它拿下来。” 我基本确定，从 $MSFT 到 $META 的市场都在计价特朗普这次不会 TACO 的风险。 真心希望全球经济能赢过“交易的艺术”。 https://t.co/ajYJXLRGfq
英文原文
This was Trump back in 1988 in an interview about Iran: “I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.” I’m pretty sure markets from $MSFT to $META are pricing in the risks of Trump not TACOing now. Really hope global economy > “Art of the Deal” here. https://t.co/ajYJXLRGfq
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觉得市场正经历类似全球关税冲击，资金在计价流动性和能源风险。
@HimarsoClock 我们已经到了 4 月那种全球关税冲击的阶段，而且 $MSFT 已经到 350 美元了…… 市场大概正在计价流动性冲击和能源中断。不过就像去年 4 月看到的那样， 一切都可能因为一个 TACO 而改变。
英文原文
@HimarsoClock We’ve reached April global tariff shock with $MSFT already at $350… Markets are probably pricing in liquidity shock and energy disruption. But again as seen with April last year Everything can chance with a Taco.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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认为美股科技股卖压过头，SpaceX IPO 会制造流动性真空，短期别碰期权。
$MSFT、$GOOGL 和 $META 这轮美国科技股抛售，看起来已经过度了？ Mag7 大致跌幅： Microsoft 年初至今跌 -21.9% Google 年初至今跌 -7.69% $AMZN 年初至今跌 -7.36% Meta 年初至今跌 -8.54% 更糟的是，如果 SpaceX 以 1.7 万亿美元估值在快速纳入指数后 IPO。 大型 IPO 通常会制造巨大的市场流动性真空（对 SpaceX 来说当然是好事）。 不过，我不认为市场真的相信伊朗战争会很快结束。 -> 大盘股出现巨大流动性抽水， -> SpaceX IPO 还会带来更多抽水， -> 尽管基本面在改善 = 短期别碰期权。 长期来看，我预计 Mag7 会恢复。
英文原文
The US tech selloff from $MSFT, $GOOGL and $META looks really overdone now? Mag7 roughly down: Microsoft down -21.9% YTD Google down -7.69% YTD $AMZN down -7.36 YTD Meta down -8.54% YTD What makes things worse is SpaceX IPOing at $1.7T if they get fast-index inclusion. Mega-IPOs typically serve as a massive market liquidity vacuum (good for SpaceX though) However, I don’t think markets are truly convinced War in Iran is ending anytime soon. -> Massive liquidity drain from large caps, -> more upcoming soon with SpaceX IPO -> despite improving fundamentals = don’t touch short term options. Long term I expect Mag7 to recover.
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认为 MSFT / META 的 leaps 比现在更有吸引力，尤其是 OpenAI 资金释放和元宇宙广告影响。
@TheVantaBlack 还没，不过在 $MSFT 上做 LEAPS 其实更有吸引力一点，尤其是 OpenAI 的流动性释放这件事？ $META 也一样，虽然业绩很炸，但延后 Avocado launch 对短期盈利没什么实质影响，因为他们主要还是卖广告，只是会影响外界观感。
英文原文
@TheVantaBlack Not yet, but leaps on $MSFT, especially with OpenAI liquidity unlock feels more compelling here? Same with $META with blowout earnings, delaying Avocado launch doesn’t materially change earnings much short term since they sell ads but does impact optics.
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认为 Mag7 卖压已经过头，资本会重新流回美国科技。
感觉从 $META 593 美元到 $MSFT 373 美元这一段 Mag7 抛售…… 是不是有点过头了？ 现在看起来，超大规模云厂的支出 / ROI / 宏观环境的风险收益都挺有吸引力。 我觉得很快会看到资本重新流回美国科技板块。 https://t.co/KBCi7gMfGT
英文原文
Feel like Mag7 selloff from $META at $593 to $MSFT at $373… Has gone a bit too far? At this point, risk/reward feels on hyperscaler spend vs. ROI vs. macro climates, feels compelling. And we should see capital rotations back into the American tech sector soon. https://t.co/KBCi7gMfGT
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强调 SIVE 通过 CHIPS Act 和国安项目对美国很重要，并给出更高估值判断。
如果你到现在还不知道，$SIVE 通过 CHIPS 法案对美国国家安全很重要。 而且尤其是，它还是超大规模云 AI 供应链的光源。 到目前为止，他们已经拿了大约 1160 万美元的两笔 CHIPS 法案资助： 1. 和 $ERIC 以及 Raytheon $RTX 一起做 FR3 beamformer ICs 2. 和 $BA（LSE）BAE Systems 一起做 EW 技术 CEO 还暗示 2026 年会有更多来自 CHIPS 的资金。 小盘股几乎从来拿不到美国政府这种支持。 你手里有一家市值 3.3 亿美元的公司： 它对美国半导体业务的国家安全至关重要， 也对超大规模云供应链（$MSFT、$META、$AMZN、$ORCL 等）里的光子学至关重要， 通过 $MRVL Celestial、Ayar、Jabil、ONet 等链条。 关于扩产和 capex 的问题，现在已经由 Win Semi 合作基本回答了。 至于“等待 CPO”的机会成本，现在也被 OFC 上 Jabil 1.6T 可插拔模块放量这件事回答了。 $SIVE 是光子学里最被低估的宝石之一，我个人认为它今天就应该值 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act. But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains. They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far: 1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX. 2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems With more coming funding from CHIPS in 2026 hinted by the CEO. Small caps almost never get this sort of support from the US government. You have a company sitting at $330M: That's critical to US National Security for their Semi arm. and Critical to Hyperscaler supply chains ( $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL, etc) for Photonics through $MRVL Celestial, Ayar, Jabil, ONet, and others... The main question regarding scale vs. capex is now answered by Win Semi partnership. And the question regarding "CPO waiting" opportunity cost is now answered by the Jabil 1.6T pluggable ramp from OFC. $SIVE of the most unknown gems in the photonics space and I personally think this company should be $2B+ today.
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说 SIVE 因 Jabil、MRVL、Ayar、Onet 等链条而从高风险变成低风险高回报。
是的，我原帖里也公布了财务数据。2 月份的重组，让 $SIVE 变得更有吸引力。 所以我现在认为 $SIVE 已经是低风险、高回报，而不是以前那种高风险了。 在它被宣布成为 Jabil 的光源之后，它也成了我现在高信念的小盘股。 你有 $JBL 在填补 1.6T 可插拔光模块这个巨大的空缺，而不是一直等 CPO。 然后是 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN、$MSFT。 再然后是 Ayar -> AiChip / 其他 -> $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 等。 最后是 O-Net -> 亚洲的 CPO 供应链。 另外，我不觉得在光子超级周期里，任何收入预测都应该是准确的，因为 TAM 扩张 / 量产放大本身就会改变一切。
英文原文
Yes in my original post, I published financials. The restructuring February, made $SIVE much more highly compelling. So, I see $SIVE being more low risk, high reward. Not high-risk anymore. And it's now my high conviction small cap after they were announced as the light source for Jabil. You have $JBL bridging the MASSIVE gap for 1.6 pluggable optical transceivers, rather than waiting for CPO. Then $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT. Then Ayar -> AiChip/others -> $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, and others. Then onet -> Asian supply chains for CPO. Also I don't think any revenue forecasts should be accurate given TAM expansion/ramp for photonics supercycles.
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Sivers以2.5亿美元估值复制LITE/COHR模式，成为CPO/ELS时代的光源核心供应商，被严重低估。
估值约2.5亿美元的$SIVE|$SIVEF看起来是光通信半导体市场中结构性错误定价最严重的标的之一。 $LITE和$COHR目前拥有450亿美元以上的估值，主要因为它们控制了外部腔体激光器(EML)和垂直腔面发射激光器(VCSEL)的出货——这些器件流向-> InnoLight和Eoptolink，用于当前可插拔光收发器(supercycle)。 我会一直强调这个观点，直到市场理解： Sivers已经为下一个技术范式复制了这一高度盈利的Merchant Supplier（商业代工）模式： -> 共封装光学(CPO)和外部光源(ELS)。 同时还有： -> 激光器，某大型制造商如Jabil正在用于当前的1.6T升级周期。 Sivers预见到架构正在从EML转型，并成为连续波(CW)激光器的纯Play供应商。 当前周期（可插拔光模块）：LITE/COHR供应EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink制造模块 -> $GOOGL、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN购买。 下一个周期（CPO/ELS）：Sivers供应CW DFB激光器 -> $POET、Ayar Labs -> 流向超大规模数据中心商如$AMZN、$META、$MSFT等。 但与建设大型晶圆厂、承担良率/产能爬坡风险不同： 他们转型为无晶圆厂模式，通过Win Semi外包生产大批量CW激光器，有效降低了规模扩张风险。 那为什么在光电子supercycle期间估值只有2.5亿美元？ 我的观点： 1. 没人知道这家公司。 2. 许多基金的投资限制阻止它们购买瑞典的小盘股。 然而，当你开始关注超大规模数据中心光供应链中那些不知名的上游标的时： 光源领域最顶层的公司是$SIVE。 一家2.5亿美元的小公司，置身于$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、住友电工以及百亿至数百亿美元市值的现有巨头之间。 再说一遍…… 一家2.5亿美元的公司： 为Jabil的1.6T LRO光收发器模块提供核心光源。 Jabil是巨头。 同时还为Ayar、$POET、Enablence/$ONET以及许多其他名字（尚未公开披露）提供多元化供应。 $SIVE已成功打入超大规模数据中心商的供应链，成为未来光电子架构的核心光源供应商。 相对于未来市场空间扩张和产能爬坡来看，估值被严重低估了。
英文原文
< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market. $LITE and $COHR, have $45B+ valuations today: Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink. For current pluggable transceiver supercycles. I will keep hammering this home until markets understand: Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm: -> CPO and ELS. And also: -> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle. Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW. Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN buy them. Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET, Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and others. However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk: They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling. So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle? My opinion: 1. Nobody knows about it yet. 2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain: At the top for the light source sits $SIVE. A small $250M company among $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents. Again... A $250M company: Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules. Jabil is massive. As well as Ayar, $POET, Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification. $SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures. And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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认为 SIVE/SIVEF 本周大涨后仍被低估，是多家光子和云厂供应链中的关键激光源。
$SIVE <> $SIVEF 这周已经涨了 165%。 估值呢？大约 3 亿美元市值。 不过我可能是傻了，或者说 Sivers 其实就是当下光子领域最好的机会之一。 你买到的是 Jabil、Ayar、Poet（$MRVL Celestial）、O-Net 等公司的激光供应商： 而这些最终都会流向 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的 AI 数据中心。 市值才 3 亿美元。 今天的 EML 激光供应商，比如 $LITE 到 $COHR，作为参照都在 450 亿美元以上。 这可能是未来上游光子供应链里最不被市场理解、却又至关重要的瓶颈之一。 而市场现在才刚开始给它定价。
英文原文
$SIVE <> $SIVEF is now up 165% this week. Valuation? ~$300M MC. However; either I’m dumb or Sivers is one of the best opportunities in photonics today. You get the laser supplier for Jabil, Ayar, Poet ( $MRVL Celestial ), O-Net, and others: That end up in $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META AI datacenters. At ~$300M. The EML laser suppliers today from $LITE to $COHR for reference are $45B+ This is one of the most undiscovered yet critical bottlenecks for future upstream photonics supply chains. That markets have only starting to price in today.
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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博主认为SIVE成为Jabil光源供应商的消息将驱动SIVE股价大幅重新估值。
@mrsgayathridas 关于$IBKR的看法。$SIVE成为$JBL的光源这个新公告可能是迄今为止最大的新闻。我预计这只股票将因这个消息而获得巨大的重新估值。Jabil为$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN、$MSFT提供光收发器。他们是一个巨头的存在。
英文原文
@mrsgayathridas $IBKR. The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news. Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers. They’re a huge player.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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分析Sivers和IQE在硅光子学供应链中的卡位，看好其从传统业务向InP光子学的转型机会。
$SIVE/$SIVEF和$IQE。Sivers为CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)制造激光阵列和CW DFB激光器。并且已经嵌入超大规模云厂商如$AMZN和$MSFT集群的供应链，作为Captive模式如$MRVL Celestial和Merchant模式如Ayar的光源。然后他们通过晶圆(win)认证来提升产能，这样在内部扩产时不会消耗太多资本支出。$IQE是InP外延片(epiwafer)供应商，正在将legacy沉积反应器重构用于光子学供应链。他们已经是$LITE的已知供应商，另一大供应商是Landmark，估值约40亿美元（但产能潜力较小）。这基本上相当于将$IREN或$RIOT的比特币矿工转为HPC，但针对的是光子学。有相当多的债务，但这更多是在赌台湾销售能通过，以及管理层会转向InP生产以获得重新评级。所以这两家是我目前最看好的。
英文原文
$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE. Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar. Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house. $IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity). This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics. There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating. So those two are my favorites right now
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
英文原文
Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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用设计/组装、激光/收发器两类公司估值作比较，推导 SIVE 与 AAOI 的合理市值区间。
在设计 / 组装这一侧： Eoptolink（中国）：约 500 亿美元市值，约 53 亿美元营收 Innolight（中国）：约 840 亿美元市值，约 110 亿美元营收 $FN 这类低毛利组装公司约 200 亿美元市值，对应约 40 亿美元预期营收。 在激光 / 收发器这一侧： $LITE 约 470 亿美元市值：到 2026 年末营收将超过 30 亿美元。 然后是 $AAOI，现在月收入 3.75 亿美元左右，供应链位于激光 / 设计 / 组装这一层，目标年化营收约 45 亿美元 + 继续增长。 按这个逻辑，$AAOI 估值到 130 亿美元似乎合理，因为它还没真正到那个数字。 而 $SIVE，你只要看 CPO 的爬坡去猜就行。 通常先进封装公司（至少在当前周期里）会比它们对应的激光公司拿到更低的估值，除非它们自己也做设计。 $SIVE 给 $POET / Ayar 等公司供激光，而后者估值都在 10 亿到 30 亿美元+。 所以 $SIVE 至少也应该有 10 亿美元左右的下限。 这只是拿相似公司的估值 / 营收预测做比较，然后再做一个估算。
英文原文
For design/assembly Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B revenue Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~$11B revenue $FN for low margin assembly ~$20B MC, ~$4B projected revenue. For lasers/transceiver: $LITE ~$47B MC: ~$3B+ EOY 2026. Then you have $AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth. Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable since it hasn't hit those numbers yet. It's discretionary. As for $SIVE, you can just look at CPO ramp and just take a guess. Usually advanced packaging companies (at least in current cycles), have around the less valuation as their laser counterparts (Unless they do design). $SIVE supplies lasers to $POET/Ayar both of which are $1-$3B+ valuations. So $SIVE at least should be ~$1B low end. This is just comparing similar company valuation/revenue projections, then making an estimate.
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用容量和供应链地位推演 AAOI 与 SIVE 的潜在市值上修空间，认为光学超级周期极其夸张。
我觉得市场应该这样给它们定价： $AAOI：从 93 美元到 162 美元（约 130 亿美元市值），这是在他们今天公布新产能预测之后的合理水平。 而 $SIVE 至少也应该从 7.7 美元到 38.5 美元，按约 11 亿美元市值去看？ 如果其中一个到 2027 年末扩产到约 19.7 亿美元的产能（基本上就等于营收，因为超大规模云厂商会把能买的都买掉）， 那另一个又是从 $AMZN Trainium 到 $MSFT Maia 集群的超大规模云供应链里，最可能的激光供应商？ 至少也该把未来营收增长计进去。 这还不算执行不确定性，也没给其他像 $LWLG 这类公司加上溢价（它们也已经有 11 亿美元以上市值）。 如果 Win Semi 认证了 $SIVE，而 $POET / Ayar 等继续扩产，我觉得 $SIVE 的估值从这里 20-30 倍都不是没可能？ 如果 $AAOI 真按每月 3.78 亿美元的目标跑，股价从这里 5 倍到大约 300 亿美元市值也完全可能。 这些潜在目标价足以说明光学超级周期有多夸张（像存储一样），只是最终要看每家公司执行得如何。
英文原文
I feel like markets should value: $AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today. and $SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least? If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make) Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters? At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth. This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+. If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here? If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC. These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.
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强调自己会先用前瞻基本面和供应链终端需求建模，而不是先看图形。
我会先把前瞻性的基本面（营收、利润）建模进去，然后再让市场去给 $AAOI 这样的公司定价。 或者像 $SIVE 那样，去看供应链终端客户，比如 $AMZN 或 $MSFT 对光源的需求。 市场里大部分 alpha，本来就是这么找到的，不是靠画一条歪歪扭扭的线。
英文原文
I try to model in forward fundamentals (revenue, profit) before markets price the company in with stuff like $AAOI. Or with $SIVE, looking at supply chain end users like $AMZN or $MSFT for light sources. That's how most of the money is to be made in markets finding alpha, not drawing a swiggly line on a chart.
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用 ASP 和产能推演 AAOI 的营收爬坡，认为市场严重低估其容量兑现速度。
$AAOI 以 64.9 亿美元市值看起来明显低估了。 如果我们今天按 ASP 和他们最新的产能预测来建模： 来自产能的营收： Q2 2026：约 3.121 亿美元 Q4 2026：约 14.1 亿美元 Q2 2027：约 15.3 亿美元 Q4 2027：约 19.7 亿美元 这就是非常夸张的爬坡（按约 34-40% 的毛利率估算）。 ASP 是按 LightCounting、Dell'Oro Group 和 Yole 的资料，以及 ELSFP 模块定价推出来的（其中最有猜测性的就是 ELSFP 模块）。另外也参考了一些卖方模型，比如 Raymond James、B. Riley、Northland Capital 和 Goldman Sachs。 大规模订单的精确合同价格并不知道，所以这部分有猜测成分。 但 Q2 的量 * ASP 估算，实际上和他们到 2027 年 Q2 每月 3.78 亿美元的目标是对得上的。 再说一次，你可能会问：这只是产能，不等于营收吧？ 但从 $AMZN 到 $MSFT 的超大规模云厂商，正在把 $LITE 到 $COHR 这些公司能做出来的任何产能都买走，而且是提前很多年就开始买。 这也包括 $AAOI 在他们之前的财报电话会上提到的部分。
英文原文
$AAOI looks very undervalued at $6.49B. If we model ASP and their newest capacity projections today: Revenue from Capacity: Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B This is absurd ramp (off ~34-40% est. gross margins). ASP modeled off (LightCounting, Dell'Oro Group & Yole, pricing for ELSFP modules is the most speculative). And some sell-side models (from firms like Raymond James, B. Riley, Northland Capital, and Goldman Sachs). Exact contract pricing for massive volume orders is not known, so this is speculative. But the Q2 volume * ASP estimates actually align with their $378M/month target Q2-2027. Again, you might be wondering? This is capacity, doesn't translate into revenue right? Hyperscalers from $AMZN to $MSFT are buying any capacity any of these companies from $LITE to $COHR can make, years out. This includes $AAOI from their former earnings call.
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$SIVE作为2亿美元市值的硅光子学上游激光供应商，是未被发现的机遇，供应超大规模业者CPO供应链。
$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。 他们是未来可能像$COHR和$LITE那样的光源供应商，用于： - $AMZN Trainium集群 - $MSFT Maia集群 以及可能还有其他超大规模业者的$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。 市值约2亿美元。 关系映射（推测性）： $SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial专用）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? 亚洲超大规模业者 正在进行中： $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU） $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（专用CPO）-> ?（$MSFT、$META历史上是Wiwynn最大的客户）。 由于$MRVL Celestial等专用模式的存在，他们可以免费搭便车。 然而，他们在与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI的多源ELS竞争中对抗Ayar并获胜，即使在商业模式下也是如此。 但无论哪种模式他们都能获胜。 对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行中的Win半导体认证，但这可能是一个重要指标。 同样，供应链BOM（物料清单）极度保密。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们使用$SIVE"。 但如果你把1+1+1+1+1加起来，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。 大多数人都知道"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE。或者Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有将所有多跳关系映射到最终目的地。 我真的认为$SIVE是一个极未被发现的机遇，可能成为下一个小型$LITE，用于硅光子学，在2亿美元市值下。 因为他们是未来CPO/硅光子学规模化扩展中超大规模业者供应链的上游激光供应商，cw DFB激光器和激光阵列用于扩展。
英文原文
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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认为 MRVL 太大，更偏向把它看作 MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产受益，而不是光子故事。
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL 太大了。 如果要买，我会买它的 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产逻辑，而不是像 Celestial 那样的光子逻辑。
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL is too big. I would buy them for $MSFT Maia ASIC ramp not photonics like Celestial.
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认为 AAOI 已经进入多家大厂路线图
@Sher_Lockknows 没有。但 $AAOI 其实不太需要那种催化，因为他们大概率已经进入了 $AMZN、$MSFT、$ORCL / $META 的路线图。
英文原文
@Sher_Lockknows No. But $AAOI doesn’t need it since they’re likely in $AMZN, $MSFT, and $ORCL / $META roadmaps.
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认为 MRVL 受益有限，更看好 Soitec 和 TSEM
@siflower 你从 $MRVL 能拿到的直接敞口其实很有限。Celestial 的收入大约是 2028 年 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元。 Marvell 的大部分收入起量来自到 2028 年的 $MSFT Maia 和 ASIC，不过它依然是一只很棒的多头。 至于 CPO，我觉得 Soitec 和 $TSEM 大概是两个更关键的名字。
英文原文
@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029. Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless. For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
匿名者，你听了我关于 $AXTI 的论点吗？ 警告：整个 AI 行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值 7 亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值 317 亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球 60–70% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的 $NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7 集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN 超大规模计算集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR 使用磷化铟(InP)用于 800G/1.6T 光收发器中的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈激光器(DFB)及其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从 TPU 到 Maia 的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)、GPU 和超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模计算光学（TPU 集群等） - 光收发器（5G、数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（Robotaxi、无人机、军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia 未来的共封装光学(CPO)以及 Intel/Broadcom 硅光子学引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： - AXTI（估计 ~30–35%） - 住友（估计 ~30%） - JX 日本（估计 10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021 年的行业报告指出“住友电工 + AXT 共同拥有‘超过 75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模计算/AI 正在向光子学转变，但整个 AI 行业是脆弱的。 如果 $AXTI 或 $SMTOY 中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的 AI 建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家 7 亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着 AI 行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HBM)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Hope you listened to my $AXTI thesis anon? https://t.co/d5eg0BIhlG
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建议等待 $IREN 稀释周期结束且散户提供流动性后再做多。
是的，这是完美的总结。人们将 $IREN 业务表现良好（我认为作为一家与 $MSFT 合作的 DC 它也会如此）与其股价表现良好混为一谈。等待现有散户/逢低买入者为 60 亿美元的稀释周期提供流动性，待其结束后再建立多头头寸，是高度理性的。
英文原文
Yes this is the perfect summary. People conflate $IREN doing well (which I think it will too as a DC with $MSFT partnership), with their share prices doing well. Waiting for existing retail/dip buyers to serve as liquidity for the $6 billion dilution cycle finishes before going long is a highly rational.
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分析AAOI估值与基本面，建议结合营收和供应链地位而非仅看图表。
如果 $AAOI 股价上涨 100%，并声称明年每月营收将达 3.78 亿美元，这得益于 $META、$MSFT 和 $AMZN 购买其能生产的所有供应品。而它现在的估值为 70 亿美元。我不会只看图表，还会关注营收预测、毛利率、在供应链中的地位以及预测数据。
英文原文
If $AAOI ran up 100% and stated they're doing $378M/month revenue next year off likely $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN buying any supply they can make. And they're valued at $7B now. I wouldn't look at the chart alone, would look at revenue projections, gross margins, position in supply chains, and forecasts.
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NVDA锁定EML产能，光子学上游材料受制于中国，COWOS/HBM/光子学成瓶颈。
$NVDA 去年锁定了大部分光模块(EML)产能，导致其他超大规模云服务商面临巨大瓶颈。然而，光子学整体是一个材料问题，最上游的材料由中国控制。这并非英伟达能单方面决定的。不过，他们通常是最早布局的，这给 $META、$MSFT、$AMZN、$GOOGL 留下了更多问题，因此本文指出共封装光学(COWOS)、高带宽内存(HBM)和光子学可能是瓶颈。
英文原文
$NVDA secured most of the EML capacity last year and caused a huge bottleneck for other hyperscalers. However, photonics as a whole is a materials problem, the most upstream materials controlled by China. Not exactly something Nvidia can decide. However, they're usually the first to things and that leaves more problems to $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL afterward, hence the point of the post signaling cowos, hbm, and photonics are probably the bottlenecks.
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指出MRVL在光子学领域的布局，但强调其收入主要依赖ASIC。
@cesarsroy 是的，$MRVL 在光子学领域（如与 Celestial 合作的共封装光学(CPO)）有很多布局。上面应该提到他们的，但我总是把他们和专用集成电路(ASIC)联系在一起，因为那是他们大部分收入的来源，比如 2027 年的 $MSFT Maia。
英文原文
@cesarsroy Yes $MRVL does a lot of stuff in photonics like cpo with celestial. should have included them above, but I always just associate them with asics since that's where majority of their revenue comes from like $MSFT maia in 2027.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出未放缓，光学组件产能已满，预示AI光子学瓶颈将至，建议持有。
情绪（如战争/石油/LNG）决定短期价格，基本面决定长期价格。 我看不到那些关键的超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN 等）的资本支出有任何放缓迹象。 而且，在光学组件全面扩产之前，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的所有产能已在涨价前满负荷运转。 当新的 AI 集群架构采用光子学进行扩展时，这就是即将出现的瓶颈的定义。 如果这些公司的基本面没有发生任何破坏性变化，可能最好持有以度过短期波动。
英文原文
Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run. I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc). And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale. If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.
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警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
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因巨额稀释及风险收益失衡，作者看空 $IREN 并推荐 $CIFR 和 $NBIS。
我看不到任何持有 $IREN 的 compelling case（有力理由）。 尤其是考虑到在 $128亿市值下新增 $60亿的股票稀释。 人们可能会看到市值膨胀至 $200-$250亿。 但他们的股份价值会随时间递减。 风险收益比已经不再存在。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，通过 Fluidstack 为 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 提供 Colo（数据中心托管）模式，提供了更具非对称性的上行空间。 而像 $NBIS 这样的公司则提供更好的多元化（Robotaxis（自动驾驶出租车）、ClickHouse），执行风险更低，且资本支出得到良好支持。 对于 $IREN，无法合理化接近市值一半的稀释并为此欢呼。 即使有新的 Hyperscaler（超大规模云服务商）交易，风险收益比也不存在。 我去年对 $IREN 看多，但已卖出。持有者经历了从： -> 3GW 容量，轻资产，Colo 模式（我曾看好） -> 为 $MSFT 购买 GPU 并为其转型的执行风险欢呼（我不看好） 到 -> 为 $60亿新股稀释欢呼，并在公开市场上被反向抛售。（AMC 接盘者领地） 如果你努力证明新的 ~50% 稀释是好事，且在你持仓被抛售时信任管理层： 抱歉告诉你，你现在加入了数据中心领域的 $AMC 等价俱乐部。 市场上有更好的多头标的。
英文原文
I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN. Especially given the new $6B share dilution at a $12.8B marketcap. People will likely see that marketcap inflate to $20-$25B. But the value of their shares decrease over time. The risk reward is just not there anymore. Companies like $CIFR offer much more asymmetrical upside given their colo model for $AMZN and $GOOGL through Fluidstack. And companies like $NBIS offer much better diversification (robotaxis, clickhouse), derisked execution, and are well supported for capex. With $IREN, there’s no way to justify being diluted close to half the market cap and cheering that on. Even with a new hyperscaler deal there’s risk reward is just not there. I was bullish $IREN last year but sold it. As holders went from: -> 3GW capacity, asset lite, Colo model (was a fan of this) -> Buying GPUs for $MSFT and cheering on execution risks from the pivot (not a fan) Into -> Cheering on $6B of new share dilution + getting sold on the open market against their positions. (AMC bagholder territory) If you’re trying hard to justify why new ~50% dilution is a good thing sold against your positions and trusting in management: Sorry to tell you, that you’re now in the $AMC equivalent club for datacenters. There are much better longs out there.
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看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其将超越$LITE并获超大规模云厂商青睐。
我们已经起飞……尽管更广泛的光子学板块下跌，$AAOI 仍上涨 11.26%。 每个人都在寻找下一个从 49 美元涨到 614 美元的 $LITE。 有时候，它可能就坐在你面前？ 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚进行 800G/1.6T 的制造。 $LITE 在泰国使用 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics 是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光公司将其外包给亚洲，而 $AAOI 多年来一直在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链设置，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值 550 亿美元）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元。 $AAOI（市值 71 亿美元）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约 40% 的毛利率），$AAOI 实际上将超越 $LITE 2026 财年的预测。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果实现其预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的收入预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 12.4% 的毛利率带来约 43.9 亿美元收入。而它的市值是 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多）。 即使 $AAOI 只达到目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些水平上很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是随着 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。而且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越了 $CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE 等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
英文原文
We've reached liftoff... $AAOI +11.26% despite the broader photonics names down. Everyone is trying to find the next $LITE that went from $49 to $614. Sometimes, it might just be sitting right in front of you? https://t.co/deBAD017ll
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分析$AAOI空头逻辑与执行风险，看好其超大规模云需求及潜在10倍回报。
我看到的关于 $AAOI 的空头基本观点是：2.5亿美元的定向增发(ATM)不足以覆盖产能爬坡，他们还需要5000万至2.78亿美元（考虑到规模，这只是小钱）。 主要论点始终围绕执行力和潜在逆风： - 他们能否将台湾组装业务回流美国 - 扩大激光产能，以便不再零星使用 $COHR - 制造扩张的执行情况 - 中国厂商是否会导致毛利率压缩 - 共封装光学(CPO)的到来（$GOOGL + $AVGO 已确认其退出） 我不认为这是客户集中度问题，因为从 $AMZN、$MSFT 到 $META 的每个超大规模云服务商都在抢购他们能生产的所有供应。 但我认为风险已经计入市值(MC)，超大规模云服务商的需求加上 $NVDA 资助生态系统可能是最大的顺风+信号。 如果他们能执行到位，这多少让我想起 $RKLB 的“中子星”火箭。如果完美执行，我看到10倍的空间。如果不能，那就是我为上行空间承担的风险。
英文原文
The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale) The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds: - whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US - scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there - executing on manufacturing expansion. - whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players - cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out) I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make. But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal. It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.
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AAOI获三大云厂商包销产能，营收有望超越LITE，引发市场炒作。
如果 $AAOI 披露有三家超大规模云服务商客户（可能是 $META 或 $ORCL）加上 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在买断其所有产能。然后他们从 $COHR 激光器到设计再到组装实现端到端全流程。接着他们预测营收将超越另一家市值 550 亿美元的美国公司 $LITE。嗯，难怪会有这么多炒作。
英文原文
If $AAOI reveals there's three hyperscaler clients (maybe $META or $ORCL) + $AMZN + $MSFT) buying out any capacity they make. Then they do end-to-end from $COHR lasers to design to assembly... And then they're projecting revenue to leapfrog the other $55B US company in $LITE. Yeah, makes sense there's a lot of hype.
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$AAOI 具备全产业链美国制造优势，有望超越同行营收，高确信度看涨。
$AAOI 令人极度兴奋。 如果他们能执行到位，明年市值有望从 70 亿美元重估至 350 亿美元甚至更高。 我将简要概述行业格局及原因： 组装环节： -> 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器 -> 根据蓝图组装 -> 然后销售光收发器(transceiver)。 $FN (亚洲) -> 市值约 200 亿美元。 预计营收约 40 亿美元，毛利率 12.4%。 设计 + 组装： - 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器，设计 800G 和 1.6T 产品 -> 然后销售光收发器。 中际旭创 (中国)：市值约 840 亿美元 毛利率约 46.2%，预计营收约 110 亿美元 新易盛 (中国)：市值约 500 亿美元： 预计营收约 53 亿美元 激光器： - 制造激光器出售给中际旭创 + 新易盛，或制造激光器 + 设计后交给 $FN 组装。 $LITE，市值 550 亿美元： 2026 财年预估营收约 29.1 亿美元（~40% 毛利率） （他们也做激光器以外的业务，例如 $LITE 通过 Cloudlite 进行设计 -> $FN 根据蓝图组装，但并非端到端全流程）。 （$COHR 和 $AVGO 也这样做） _ _ _ _ _ _ 整个供应链（激光芯片、设计和组装） $AAOI 市值 75 亿美元： 2027 年中点预估年化经常性收入 (ARR) 约 45 亿美元（40% 毛利率） - $AAOI 制造激光器（像 $LITE），从零开始设计（像中际旭创），然后像 $FN 一样组装： -> $AAOI 内部完成 $LITE / $COHR 的激光器制造 -> $AAOI 完成中际旭创/新易盛的光收发器设计。 -> $AAOI 完成 $FN 的组装。 这实现了全环节的利润率扩张/优化。 最棒的是，他们预计将超越 $LITE 2026 财年预估的约 29.1 亿美元营收... 通过：2027 年中点实现约 45 亿美元 ARR 当你看到 $AAOI 的 75 亿美元市值。 再看光电子供应链的每个部分，从市值 550 亿美元的 $LITE 到市值 550 亿美元的新易盛。 任何人都能看到如果执行到位，其原始、纯粹的上涨空间。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真切地认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚制造 800G/1.6T 产品。 $LITE 使用泰国的 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 是唯一纯正的美国制造光收发器标的。 再次强调，两家“美国”光电子公司将业务外包到亚洲，而 $AAOI 花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建立产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元 $AAOI（71 亿美元市值）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR。 如果管理层执行到位，$AAOI 实际上将超越 Lite 2026 年的营收预测（且毛利率约 40%）。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果达成预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的营收预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 ~43.9 亿美元营收，毛利率 12.4%。市值 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多） 即使 $AAOI 只达成目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些价位很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越 $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE 等，并受益于光电子主题而非铜缆（前两者）。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
英文原文
$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell the transceiver. $FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC. ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins. Design + Assembly: - Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver. Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B projected revenue Lasers: - Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/. $LITE, $55B MC: FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin) (they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end). ( $COHR and $AVGO do this too) _ _ _ _ _ _ Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly) $AAOI $7.5B MC: Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin) - $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ): And it's primarily made in the USA. -> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house -> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design. -> $AAOI does $FN's assembly. This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board. Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue... By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027 When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap. And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B. Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.
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AAOI获三大云厂商抢购产能，预期已部分定价，风险在于执行。
我去年在$AAOI股价约$28时便已建仓，至今涨幅已达3倍。起初我对它并没有很高的确信度，只是认为鉴于“美国制造”供应链优势及当时超大规模云服务商的资格认证，它具备潜力。但管理层近期的指引最终让我下定决心，因此我在当前价位加仓。拥有三家超大规模云服务商（可能是$GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT）抢购其所有产能，这是极其看涨的信号。尤其是当它们预测2027年下半年月收入将达到3.78亿美元时。市场是前瞻性的，所以我认为这一预期现在已开始被定价。唯一的变数是执行能力，但这正是投资大多数公司所必须承担的风险。
英文原文
I was actually in $AAOI since $28-ish last year, so it's 3x'd since then. But didn't really have high conviction in it, just thought it had potential given Made in America supply chains + hyperscaler qualification at the time. But management projections recently sealed the deal, so I ended up buying more around these levels. Having 3 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, buying up any supply you can make is incredibly bullish. Especially when they're projecting $378M a month revenue round H2 2027. Markets are forward looking so I think it started to get priced in now. Only uncertainty is execution, but that's the risk you're taking with majority of companies.
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看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其营收将超越同行且下行风险小。
高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这明年很容易翻3倍。 英伟达资助了$COHR，后者在马来西亚进行800G/1.6T的制造。 $LITE在泰国使用FN进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造工厂。 我会一直强调这一点，但Applied Optoelectronics是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光通信公司将业务外包到了亚洲，而$AAOI则花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了$COHR和$LITE以建立美国版本，旨在将其最关键的供应链与地缘政治风险隔离。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值550亿美元）2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元。 $AAOI（市值71亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年化经常性收入(ARR)。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约40%的毛利率），$AAOI实际上将超越$LITE 2026财年的预测。 再说一次。如果$AAOI实现其预测，它将超越$LITE（市值550亿美元）整个2026年的营收预测。 亚洲的$FN，2026年预测实际上与AAOI完全相同。 营收约43.9亿美元，毛利率12.4%。且其市值为200亿美元（毛利率低得多）。 即使$AAOI只达到目标的70%，其估值重估很可能远超当前市值。 总结：在这些价位上，$AAOI很难看到下行风险，尤其是3-4家超大规模云厂商（可能是$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来数年的所有产能。且$GOOGL不采用共封装光学(CPO)路线。 $AAOI在增长方面超越了$CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层兑现承诺，$AAOI仍是一个非对称的1年高确信度标的。
英文原文
High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T. $LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand. I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play. Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas. Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks. But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI. $LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. $AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins). Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections. $FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI. ~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins) Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap. TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route. $AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two). $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.
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MRVL 依赖 MSFT Maia 放量，看好 2027 长线机会。
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL 高度依赖 $MSFT Maia 的放量进程，我可能会将后者作为一个重要的风向标。但我认为它在 2027 年将是极佳的长线标的，关键在于把握合适的入场时机。
英文原文
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL is heavily dependent on $MSFT maia ramp and i'd probably use the latter as a large indicator. But I see it being an amazing long for 2027, just need to time it properly.
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看好$AAOI十倍增长潜力，视其为光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 对我来说感觉是必须配置的共封装光学(CPO)敞口。 他们的财报简直像黑魔法一样神奇。 $LITE（市值500亿美元）：2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元 $AAOI（市值56亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 他们的增长预测在2026年实际上已经超越了 $LITE。 我没开玩笑。 $AAOI 的毛利率约为40%，$LITE 凭借光电路交换(OCS)垄断地位可能达到45%。 “长期毛利率目标约为40%。” 别误会，$LITE 是一只极佳的长线股，因为其在 $GOOGL TPU 和 Google 资本支出中占据8-12%的物料清单(BOM)份额... 但 $AAOI 的营收顶层增长接近去年营收的10倍，这简直不可思议。 如果你用草稿纸数学模型计算： “管理层预测，到2027年第二季度，每月光收发器营收潜力达3.78亿美元” ~ 43亿美元目标，40%毛利率（自产），17.2亿美元毛利润，也许~6亿美元资本支出/运营支出： 净利润 ~8.96亿美元。 远期市盈率（基于2027年净利润）：~6.4倍远期市盈率，对应约900%的同比增长。 而且如果你看光子学产能爬坡，预计向2030年呈指数级增长。 从他们的管理层电话会议来看，超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）很可能买断了所有可用的光收发器产能。 这让我想起早期的 $ALAB 或 $CRDO，所有超大规模云服务商都是他们的客户。 如果你考虑到像 $SNDK 的NAND闪存那样的价格涨幅： +15% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：14.1亿美元净利润 - （4.1倍远期市盈率） +30% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：19.2亿美元净利润 - （3.0倍远期市盈率） 这就是为什么我在 $AAOI 财报后如此兴奋。 甚至还没包括 $AAOI “美国制造”的光收发器供应链，这将使他们获得相对于 $FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、易普联(Eptolink)等海外厂商的溢价。 有点像 $INTC 对 $TSM 或 $MU 对 SK海力士的溢价。 如果他们的预测成真，且价格涨幅使光子学板块在800%+增长下达到3倍市盈率，回报率将是天文数字。 再次强调，这些是管理层预测，执行力才是关键。 无论如何，我将 $AAOI 作为我最大的光子学持仓之一，因为这看起来像黑魔法，也是下一个 $SNDK 的开端。 如果他们能实现预测，非零概率是我们在一年半后看到其达到 $LITE 500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me. Their earnings report is genuinely black magic. $LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026. Not even kidding. Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly. "-term objective of gross margins to around 40%," Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend... But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane. And if you go off napkin math modeling: "By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million" ~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex: Net income ~$896M. Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth. And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030. From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers. Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers. And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK: +15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income - (4.1x forward p/e) +30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income - (3.0x forward p/e) This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings. Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad. Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums. The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments. Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game. Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK. There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.
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AAOI财报揭示上游设备与材料瓶颈，IQE等上游厂商受益显著。
来自 $AAOI 财报的二阶效应： -> 对 MBE/MOCVD 反应堆的需求极度旺盛。 它们用于制造外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 这为“制造”环节释放了两个信号： - $IQE 坐拥一座绝对的“金矿” - 资本开支周期将惠及类似 $VECO ($18.5亿) 和 Aixtron ($AIXXF $37亿) 这样的设备商。 引用：3-4 家超大规模云服务商，可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT，对光收发器(transceivers)的需求已触顶。 -> 中际旭创(Innolight)、易普拓(Eptolink)、$COHR 等厂商可能也会经历一轮资本开支周期以满足需求。 这主要利好两家外延晶圆代工代工厂： -> $IQE ($1.75亿) ~100+ 台反应堆 -> 晶品半导体(Landmark) (~$36.8亿) ~27-30 台反应堆。 所以这大概就是为什么 $LITE 大量使用 $IQE，而 Landmark 营收屡创新高。$AAOI 则一直在建设其德州工厂的产能。 总结： 1. Aixtron 和 $VECO 受益于今年类似迷你版 $ASML 的资本开支周期。当 Aixtron 在2月指引中表示预计2026年“整体市场环境持续疲软”时，也许他们在低调隐藏实力(sandbagging)或订单尚未下达。话虽如此，我认为最佳敞口可能并非设备卖家。 2. $IQE 坐拥满足 $LITE 及其他超大规模云服务商对 InP 外延晶圆需求的产能金矿。他们只需成功重组，估值就能更像其台湾同行($36.5亿市值)。 3. $AAOI 的财报显示收发器制造商及其组装所需的组件/材料需求惊人，市场肯定尚未定价。 4. $AXTI 一如既往地成为所有环节的瓶颈，正如我去年所提到的。 名字越响亮(如 $LITE、$COHR)，交易可能越拥挤/已充分定价。 但当你向上游追溯时，还有大量未被市场定价的隐藏宝石，它们将从巨大的光子学扩张中受益。 这是投资者的新淘金热，但本质是瓶颈狩猎。
英文原文
Second order effects from $AAOI earnings: -> Extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors. They're needed for epiwafers. This signals two things for "manufacturing": - $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine - capex cycle to ( $VECO $1.85B, Aixtron $AIXXF $3.7B) type players. Quote: 3-4 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT. demand maxed out for transceivers. -> Innolight, Eptolink, $COHR, and others will probably go through a capex cycle to meet demand too. This largely benefits both outsourced foundries for epiwafers: -> $IQE ($175M) ~100+ reactors -> Landmark (~$3.68B) ~27-30 reactors. So that's probably the reason why $LITE has been heavily using $IQE, and Landmark has been hitting record revenues. $AAOI's has been building capacity from their texas fab. TLDR: 1. Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year. When Aixtron said 2026 "continued softness in overall market environment expected" from feb guidance, maybe they're sandbagging or orders havent come in yet. That being said, best exposure imo is probably not the machine sellers. 2. $IQE is sitting on a gold mine of capacity to meet demand across $LITE and others hyperscalers for inp epiwafers. They just need to restructure succesfully, to be rerated more like their $3.65B friend in Taiwan. 3. $AAOI earnings is just insane demand for both transceiver makers and the components/materials required to assemble them, definitely not priced in yet. 4. $AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything as I mentioned last year. The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in. But when you go more upstream, there's a ton of hidden gems markets haven't priced in yet that benefit from the massive photonics ramp. It's the new gold rush for investors, but bottleneck hunting.
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$AAOI获三大超大规模客户订单，营收激增，基本面强劲。
$AAOI 看起来像是早期的 $SNDK。而且在未来一年，其市值很可能远超 55 亿美元。 在他们的财报电话会议上： - 3 家超大规模客户（可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT） - “他们希望购买我们能生产的所有 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器”——完全售罄，就像内存一样。 - 营收增长预测超过 900%，达到 43 亿美元，而当前市值仅为 55 亿美元。 光子学领域的需求史无前例，$AAOI 刚刚证实了这一点。 而且他们随时可以开始提价，将毛利率从 40% 进一步提高。当然，存在执行风险…… 但这是一个你应该关注基本面而非图表的例子。
英文原文
$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year. On their earnings call: - 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT) - "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory. - 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC. There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it. And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks... But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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看好AXTI光子潜力及美股科技巨头，建议做多黄金。
$MU - 最终更看好 SK Hynix，但这是更安全的“美国制造”标的。 $AXTI 还有很长的路要走，需等待1年直到极端短缺出现。可能是光子学(Photonics)板块中回报潜力最大的最爱。 $EWY - Vega扩张的尾声，隐含波动率(IV)可能会将其推高一点。但如果你买入看涨期权(Call)，应是因为 KOSPI 上涨而非博弈 IV。 做多黄金是好的，因为外国正在大量买入并抛售美国国债。不喜欢在当前价位做空比特币(Bitcoin)。 $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 在当前估值下具有吸引力。
英文原文
$MU - ended up liking SK Hynix more but safer made in America play $AXTI long way to go, 1 year wait until extreme shortage hits. Prob my favorite in photonics sector for return potential $EWY - tail end of Vega expansion, IV will likely send it a tad higher. But if you’re buying calls do it because KOSPI goes up not for IV plays. Gold longs are good because foreign countries are buying it up and selling Us treasuries. Don’t like Bitcoin puts at these levels. $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are attractive at these valuations.
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电力成美国AI最大瓶颈，看好$XLU因降息及基建资本支出重估。
美国AI最大的瓶颈： 电力与电网容量。 最近，美国各大AI公司的CEO都反复强调这一点。 以下是从$MSFT到$AMZN的名单： 黄仁勋（$NVDA）：“在最底层：能源。中国的能源总量是我们的两倍，而我们的经济体量比他们大。这对我来说毫无道理……没有能源，你就无法发展任何新产业。”（CSIS活动） 埃隆·马斯克（$TSLA / xAI）：“价值数十亿美元的最先进AI硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们。”（最近播客） 山姆·阿尔特曼（OpenAI）：“满足全球AI需求最终需要数百吉瓦的电力。谁控制了电力，谁就控制了AI价值链。”（最近采访） 安迪·贾西（$AMZN）：“[我们]最大的单一制约因素是电力。我不相信我们在几个季度内就能完全解决我们所需的需求容量。”（亚马逊财报电话会议） 萨提亚·纳德拉（$MSFT）：“我们现在面临的最大问题不是算力过剩，而是电力。也就是能否在靠近电力的地方快速完成建设。如果你做不到，你可能会有一堆无法插电使用的芯片库存。”（BG2 Pod） 每一位美国AI实验室的CEO都在告诉你美国人工智能的主要瓶颈是什么： 发电和扩大电网。 因此，我们可能会看到$XLU中无聊的公用事业和电力生产商因为以下原因被强烈重估： 1. AI推理+训练极端扩张以及对GW级数据中心的需求。 2. 超大规模云厂商向该领域投入极端资本支出。 3. 降息顺风。 最重要的是： 作为一个国家，美国必须重建其电网以赢得地缘政治军备竞赛。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 如果我要在1年内将$10万变成$100万。 我会选择：$XLU 2年期虚值看涨期权 2026年是现代历史上市场首次同时具备： - 利率下降 - AI推理+建设 通过映射，XLU有潜在~40%的涨幅（虚值期权1000%+）。 这是我的宏观论点： 1. 降息 当美联储在不引发衰退的情况下降息时，公用事业债务成本降低，机构将低收益现金转向公用事业股息。 这导致估值倍数立即扩张： 1995年：标普公用事业板块在1995年回报+31.3%，1996年再+12.1% - 累计回报~47% 2019年中周期降息：结果：XLU在那一年产生了+25.9%的总回报 标准的软着陆降息周期自然映射到25%到30%的基准回报。而我们要进入2026年的新降息周期。 2. 基础设施超级周期资本支出 基础设施资本支出为该板块带来复合盈利增长。继2000年代初之后，公用事业进入了一个巨大的资本支出周期以现代化老化的电网基础设施。 因为他们不断支出并扩大其保证费率基数，XLU在2004年回报+23.5%，2005年+16.3%，2006年+20.8%，2007年+18.4%。 然而这一次： 2026年8000多亿美元的AI建设使得2004年的电网现代化看起来像零钱。 所以你有来自#1降息的估值倍数扩张（+15%到+20%）。来自#2资本支出历史数据的每股收益增长（+18%到+20%）。仅从历史教训来看。 但2026年是历史上AI使用最独特的时刻。 仅从我自己的模型预测来看，所有以前的估计可能都因AI极端扩张而错误（例如DOE/LBNL预测）： 超大规模云厂商资本支出流入（支出）（亚马逊、微软、Meta、谷歌、甲骨文）到数据中心估计： 2024年：2200亿美元 2025年：3500亿美元 2026年：5500亿美元 2027年：8000亿美元 2028年：1.2万亿美元（4年增长：+445%） 美国数据中心电力使用： 2024年：190 TWh 2025年：280 TWh 2026年：430 TWh 2027年：650 TWh 2028年：980 TWh（4年增长：+415%） AI消耗的总美国电力百分比： 2024年：美国电网的4.5% 2025年：6.6% 2026年：8.2-10.2% 2027年：13.4-15.4% 2028年：21.3-23.3% 劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和能源部似乎在AI使用上偏离了（他们预测到2028年约为12%） 物理电网容量需求： 2024年：18 GW 2025年：35 GW 2026年：65 GW 2027年：105 GW 2028年：160 GW 基本上你可以看到2026年到2028年是拐点，而2024-2025年是爬坡的缓慢年份。 然后是独立公司的“绝望溢价”。因为电网容量已售罄，科技巨头向公用事业支付巨额溢价以插队。例如PJM互联（弗吉尼亚“数据中心巷”），容量价格从2024年的每兆瓦日28.92美元飙升至2026/2027年令人难以置信的329.17美元。 $VST或Constellation是ETF中独立电力生产商的大权重。 纵观全局，你可以看到从2026年（现在）到2028年的极端扩张，以及用于建设基础设施的极端资本支出，与往年相比。 2026年是现代市场历史上第一次所有因素同时为无聊的电网/电力板块发力，AI是最大的顺风。 正如埃隆所引用的：“价值数十亿美元的最先进硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们”。 再次强调，2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值，由于AI和做市商已将历史隐含波动率（极度平坦~14%-16%）计入虚值看涨期权。 我们看到AI推理（超出之前的测量）以及训练（根据OpenAI今天的报告）的爆发。 所以地球上最无聊的板块（电力/电网），可能会因为超大规模云厂商/政府支出用于电网改进 -> AI推理/训练的极端电力消耗 -> 降息和其他因素，成为主要反弹的起点。 这只是我的个人论点，期权带有风险并放大下行风险。这些也是我自己的预测，不确定是否会超过或低于它们。 但基本上： 2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值。 美国的新瓶颈是电力。 来自AI的极端需求，极端资本支出，降息： $XLU看起来是最好的暴露交易。 时间会证明这是否正确与否。
英文原文
The biggest United States AI bottleneck: Power and Grid Capacity. This has been echoed by the CEOs of every major US AI company recently. Here's the list from $MSFT to $AMZN: Jensen Huang ( $NVDA ): "At the lowest level: energy. China has twice the amount of energy we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. It makes no sense to me... There are no new industries you can grow without energy." (CSIS event) Elon Musk ( $TSLA / xAI): "Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark. Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them." (Recent Podcast) Sam Altman (OpenAI): "Meeting global AI demand will eventually require hundreds of gigawatts of power. Whoever controls power controls the AI value chain." (Recent Interview) Andy Jassy ( $AMZN ): "[Our] single biggest constraint is power. I don't believe that we will have fully resolved the amount of capacity we need for the demand that we have in a couple of quarters." (Amazon Earnings Call) Satya Nadella ( $MSFT ): "The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power. It's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power. So, if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in." (BG2 Pod) You have every single CEO of American AI labs telling you what the major bottlenecks are for US Artificial Intelligence: Generating the Energy, and expanding the Grid. So, we might see boring utilities and power producers in $XLU be strongly re-rated because of: 1. AI inference + training extreme ramp and demand for GW-scale DCs. 2. Hyperscaler extreme capex pouring into the sector. 3. Rate Cut tailwinds. And most of all. That fact that: The United States as a country has to rebuild its grid to win a geopolitical arms race.
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超大规模云厂商负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
@LuffyDDK 他们真的在负债 lol 世界上最富有的公司正在为人工智能基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数百亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在 2026 年出现净现金流出。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025: +460 亿美元 2026 (预估): +110 亿美元 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +803 亿美元 2026 (预估): +130 亿美元 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025: +229 亿美元 2026 (预估): -70 亿美元 (预计转为净债务) 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025: +492 亿美元 2026 (预估): +590 亿美元 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025: -980 亿美元 (净债务) 2026 (预估): -1150 亿美元 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入为人工智能基础设施建设提供资金。 然而，巨大的现金流缓冲已消失。甲骨文和 Meta 似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 3. SK 海力士 - 韩国 ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~622 亿 -> ~863 亿 - ~1033 亿 – 1053 亿美元 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~415 亿 -> ~628 亿-651 亿 - ~847 亿-933 亿美元 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即人工智能基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的分红回报。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK 海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，他们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从人工智能支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
英文原文
@LuffyDDK They literally are going into debt lol https://t.co/A4KDf93pYk
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
你听劝了吗，匿名者？- $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： 警告：整个AI行业可能会受制于两家公司的瓶颈： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用磷化铟(InP)制造用于800G/1.6T光收发器的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会瘫痪。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光模块（TPU集群等） - 光收发器（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia未来的共封装光学(CPO)和Intel/Broadcom硅光子学(SiPh)引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友电工(Sumitomo)（估计~30%） - JX日矿（估计10-15%） 就这些。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电工+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HMB)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO
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科技巨头负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
世界上最富有的公司正在为AI基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数千亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在2026年出现净现金为负的情况。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025年：+$460亿 2026年（预估）：+$110亿 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025年：+$803亿 2026年（预估）：+$130亿 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025年：+$229亿 2026年（预估）：-$70亿（预计转为净债务状态） 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025年：+$492亿 2026年（预估）：+$590亿 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025年：-$980亿（净债务） 2026年（预估）：-$1150亿 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入来资助AI基础设施建设。 然而，那巨大的现金流缓冲已经消失。甲骨文和Meta似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向了哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 $1350亿 -> $1865亿 -> $2401亿 运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~$302亿 -> ~$1700亿 -> ~$2267亿 3. SK海力士 - 韩国 ~$327亿 -> ~$1240亿 -> ~$1610亿 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~$622亿 -> ~$863亿 - ~$1033亿 – $1053亿 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~$415亿 -> ~$628亿-$651亿 - ~$847亿-$933亿 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即AI基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的红利。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，它们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从AI支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
英文原文
The richest companies in the world are going into debt for the AI buildout. Despite hundreds of billions in net income, companies from $AMZN to $GOOGL have increased capex so much: That some are projected to be net negative cash in 2026. Here are the results and who profits: Amazon ( $AMZN ) 2025: +$46.0 billion 2026 (Est): +$11.0 billion Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +$80.3 billion 2026 (Est): +$13.0 billion Meta Platforms ( $META ) - Net Debt 2025: +$22.9 billion 2026 (Est): -$7.0 billion (Expected to swing into Net Debt) Microsoft ( $MSFT ) 2025: +$49.2 billion 2026 (Est): +$59.0 billion Oracle ( $ORCL ) 2025: -$98.0 billion (Net Debt) 2026 (Est): -$115.0 billion Microsoft appears to be in the safest position. While Amazon and Google have been largely funding the AI buildout with operating income. However, that large cashflow buffer has vanished. Oracle and Meta appear to be in debt to fuel the buildout, despite $META achieving staggering operating income numbers. Now, where does the money flow into? Operating Income Projections: 1. $NVDA - USA $135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion Operating Income 2. Samsung - Korea ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion 3. SK Hynix - Korea ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion 4. $TSM - Taiwan ~$62.2B -> ~$86.3B - ~$103.3B – $105.3 Billion 5. $AVGO - America ~$41.5B -> ~$62.8B-$65.1B - ~$84.7B-$93.3B Of course, these are rough estimates based on analyst projections. However, from the general trend, this looks like a leveraged bet that the AI buildout will pay off dividends in FCF after they're finished. But the clear winners appear to be Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Broadcom, and TSMC. This comes as hyperscalers, with some going into debt, transfer over their balance sheets to them, expecting a long term ROI from their AI spend.
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AI 驱动下，三星和海力士营业利润增速惊人，有望在 2027 年追平或超越美股巨头。
全球最盈利公司排名（Mag 7 vs. 世界） 2025->2026->2027 年营业利润(Operating Income)预测。 #1: $NVDA (美国, 4.4T 市值) 🇺🇸 ~1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元 #2 三星电子 (韩国, 8200 亿市值) 🇰🇷 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 #3 $MSFT (美国, 2.9T 市值) ~1285 亿 -> 1530 亿 -> 1815 亿美元 #4 $GOOGL (美国, 3.7T 市值) ~1290 亿 -> 1420 亿 -> 1730 亿美元 #4 海力士 (韩国, 4100 亿市值) ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 #5 $APPL (美国, 3.76T 市值) 1331 亿 -> 1460 亿 -> 1605 亿美元 #6 $AMZN (美国, 2.13T 市值) 800 亿 -> 1050 亿 -> 1365 亿美元 #7 $Meta (美国, 1.62T 市值) 833 亿 -> 970 亿 -> 1215 亿美元 #8 $TSLA (美国, 1.31T 市值) 44 亿 -> 80 亿 -> 240 亿美元 韩国 8200 亿市值的三星电子预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上追平 $NVDA。 同时，海力士预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上超越 $APPL 和 $AMZN。 主要结论是，由于人工智能(AI)的加速部署，美国超大规模云服务商和韩国股票的增长令人惊叹。
英文原文
Global ranking of the most profitable companies in the world (Mag 7 vs. World) Projections for 2025->2026->2027 (Operating Income). #1: $NVDA (USA, 4.4T MC) 🇺🇸 ~$135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion #2: Samsung Electronics (Korea, $820B MC) 🇰🇷 ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion #3 $MSFT (USA, $2.9T MC) ~$128.5B -> 153.0B -> $181.5 Billion #4 $GOOGL (USA, $3.7T MC) ~$129.0B -> $142.0B -> $173.0B #4 Sk Hynix (Korea, $410B MC) ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion #5 $APPL (USA, $3.76T MC) $133.1B -> $146.0B -> $160.5B #6 $AMZN (USA, $2.13T MC) $80.0B -> $105.0B -> $136.5B #7 $Meta (USA, $1.62T MC) $83.3 -> $97.0B -> $121.5B #8 $TSLA (USA, $1.31T MC) $4.4B -> $8.0B -> $24.0B Samsung Electronics, a $820B company in Korea is projected to catch up to $NVDA in 2027 in operating income. Meanwhile Sk Hynix is projected to overtake both $APPL and $AMZN in operating income in 2027. The main takeaway is that the growth of both US hyperscalers and South Korean equities is astounding due to Artificial Intelligence ramp.
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微软前沿模型开发属实，需重视关键矿产供应链。
@ak_dfranco 路透社报道关键矿产，认真对待此事很有道理。话虽如此，$MSFT 开发前沿模型并加以使用这一基础事实是成立的。这自去年起就已知处于开发阶段。https://t.co/KDOhV1pl9V
英文原文
@ak_dfranco Makes sense to take this seriously as a Reuters reports on critical minerals. That being said, some basis holds with $MSFT developing frontier models and using them. This has been known to be in development since last year. https://t.co/KDOhV1pl9V
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微软拟弃用OpenAI模型，转而使用自研前沿模型。
Windows Central报道：“微软AI负责人Mustafa Suleyman向FT确认，公司正准备弃用OpenAI的模型。” 话虽如此，该报道措辞非常耸人听闻，我引用它时感到有些抱歉。 但这可能有一定依据，鉴于$MSFT正在构建自己的前沿模型(frontier models)并计划使用它们来替代OpenAI。
英文原文
Windows Central. "Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman just confirmed to FT that the firm is gearing up to ditch OpenAI's models." That being said the report is worded very sensationally and I feel bad for quoting it. But likely has some basis with $MSFT building their own frontier models and using them instead of OpenAI.
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看好MRVL因绑定MSFT ASIC及光子学，但个人因放量推迟暂不持仓。
完全同意。我确实看好 $MRVL。他们与 $MSFT 的专用集成电路(ASIC) 放量紧密绑定，并且正如你提到的，在 Celestial 之后涉足光子学等许多热门领域。去年有报道称 Maia 200 推迟了约 6 个月。我目前并未持有 $MRVL，因为我个人正在等待 H2（这只是我个人的看法），因为财务放量要等到今年晚些时候才进入 2027 年。
英文原文
Absolutely. I do like $MRVL. They're especially tethered to $MSFT ASIC ramp and seem to be touching upon a lot of hot areas like photonics like you mentioned after Celestial. There were reports last year that Maia 200 was pushed back by about 6 months. I don't have $MRVL right now, since I'm personally waiting for H2 (thats just me), since financial ramp starts later this year into 2027.
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AXTI因InP供应链瓶颈逻辑6周涨60%，成AI光子学关键瓶颈标的。
自我发布关于 $AXTI 的初始帖子以来，已经过去了6周。 它的股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没有人在这上面讨论这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止了其竞争对手的前体材料 - 7N级磷化铟(InP)价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland筹集了1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟(InP)供应链。 这6周里，我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将增长最快。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前，重要的是建立你自己的信念。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
英文原文
It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post. It’s now up another 60%. Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X. Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics. And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars. Since then: - China export control banned precursors to their competitors - 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week - They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity - $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply - Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex - Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US. It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards. Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade. But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.
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超大规模云厂商AI资本支出激增，利好上游半导体供应链，建议坚守基本面做多。
市场正遭受AI资本支出(AI capex)冲击的洗礼。 这实质上是超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)与外国之间的一场AI军备竞赛。 2025年至2026年间，资本支出(capex)增长如下： $GOOGL：从910亿-930亿美元增至1750亿-1850亿美元 $AMZN：从1250亿美元增至约2000亿美元 $META：从720亿美元增至1150亿-1350亿美元 $MSFT：从1100亿美元增至1500亿美元 $TSLA：从85亿美元增至200亿美元以上 当谷歌表示其年度支出（用于数据中心、TPU、基础设施）从去年的920亿美元激增至1850亿美元时，这一规模是巨大的。 $AMZN等公司的资本支出预测涵盖机器人到太空领域，情况不一，但同一家内存公司和半导体公司实际上能从中双重受益。 市场可能不欣赏$GOOGL如此巨大的支出，但上游AI供应链 certainly 乐见其成。 尤其是那些最明显受益的公司，例如： 专用集成电路(ASICs)：$AVGO（谷歌TPU、Meta MTIA等） 内存：SK海力士、三星、美光 $TSM（没有台积电你造不出“上帝”） $NVDA（训练） 每个建设项目中都有隐藏的受益者（例如$MSFT带动的$AAOI，$MRVL带动的$POET，$GOOGL带动的$LITE）。但有时，像内存或$TSM这样显而易见的“傻瓜式”标的反而就是最好的选择。 判断AI交易是否持续的最大信号是超大规模云服务商的支出： 而他们刚刚彻底超出了所有预期。 在AI建设浪潮中保持做多，基本面比宏观环境和短期流动性冲击更重要。
英文原文
Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock. This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations. Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from: $GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B $AMZN: $125B to ~$200B $META: $72B to $115B-$135B $MSFT: $110B to $150B $TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+ When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous. Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice. Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do. Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as: ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.) Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron $TSM (You cannot build God without TSM) $NVDA (training) There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best. The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending: And they just blew all expectations out of the room. Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.
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高贝塔股今日大跌，预计中期选举前市场将广泛复苏。
@soulbiri1 是的，今天高贝塔(高Beta)股票的表现极其糟糕。$CRDO、$IREN、$CIFR 等个股遭到重创。 $AMD 下跌 -17%，甚至 $MSFT 在过去两个月也下跌超过 -22%。 我预计随着今年晚些时候中期选举的临近，我们将看到更广泛的复苏。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah today was extremely rough for high-beta. $CRDO, $IREN, $CIFR, and others just got nuked. $AMD down -17%, even $MSFT down -22%+ past two months. I'd expect when Midterms come around later in the year, we'll see a broader recovery.
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建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
英文原文
Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.
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做多AEHR博弈存储与光子机会，MRVL因客户ASIC延期推迟至下半年建仓。
我目前做多 $AEHR，以防三大存储巨头将其用于 HBM DRAM 裸片老化测试，或超大规模云厂商扩大 Sonoma 的使用。此外，硅光子学也是另一个关注领域。因此，这更像是一个投机性的“登月”选择，旨在观察其能否与 Advantest 和 $TER 竞争。至于 $MRVL，我喜欢它，但我认为更适合等到 2026 年下半年再建仓。有报道称 $MSFT Maia 路线图延迟了约半年，而 Marvell 预期的收入增长很大一部分依赖于该超大规模云厂商的特定 ASIC 项目。因此，我将在今年晚些时候重新评估它。
英文原文
I'm actually long $AEHR right now in the event any of the big three memory companies use them for HBM DRAM die burn in or hyperscalers expands Sonoma usage. Then there's silicon photonics, which is another area of interest. So it's more of a speculative moonshot pick to see if it can compete with Advantest and $TER. As for $MRVL, I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long. There were reports $MSFT Maia faced roadmap longer delays by like half a year and a large part of marvell's expected revenue growth is tethered to this specific hyperscaler ASIC program. So I'll revisit it later on in the year.
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InP是AI基建刚需且依赖中国，垂直整合无法解决材料瓶颈。
观点中肯，但有两点误解： - 美国AI基础设施建设必须使用磷化铟(InP)，这是不可妥协的。我们近期看到“交易”案例：$NVDA GPU换取解除关键材料/原料/衬底禁令。美中虽为最大地缘政治对手，却不幸相互依赖。 - 尽管今日小幅回调，7N铟在SMM已创历史新高，而光子学(CPO)产能爬坡甚至尚未开始。你提到硅光(SiPh)替代，但无法替代InP。定制芯片可能采用硅+InP激光器的混合方案，但仍需InP。 - 需求呈指数级增长，$NVDA已锁定外延量子阱激光器(EML)产能，$MSFT Maia预计将占据两位数比例的InP供应链。我高度怀疑库存足以让所有人持续获取。 - 当然，或者他们可以通过涨价来弥补良率损失。 - 这不是垂直整合能解决的。整个供应链是物理/材料问题，因为大部分资源仅在中国可及。 超大规模云厂商可以垂直整合掉$LITE，但无法整合掉原始前驱体或材料。
英文原文
Fair points and two misunderstandings: - US requires InP for AI buildout. This is non-negotiable. And we saw that "trade", $NVDA GPUs for unblocking critical materials/feedstock/substrates bans recently. US and China unfortunately are dependent on one another despite being the biggest geopolitical adversaries. - We're already seeing 7n indium reach ATHs on SMM (depsite recent dip today), and photonics ramp hasn't even started the curve yet. You say SiPh substitution, but you can't substitute away InP. Custom chips might use hybrid w/silicon + InP laser but you still need it. - It scales up exponentially, $NVDA secured EML capacity, $MSFT maia is expected to take up double digits of inp supply chain. Highly doubt there's enough inventory for everyone to keep it accessible. - Sure, or they can price hike to make up for yield - This is not something you can vertically integrate. The entire supply chain is a physics/materials problem because majority is only accessible in China. Hyperscalers can vertically integrate away $LITE but not the raw precursors or materials.
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摩根士丹利预测2027年存储巨头利润登顶，确认存储超级周期已至。
存储超级周期已至。 据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最新报告估算： - 三星(Samsung)净利润约1630亿美元 - 海力士(SK Hynix)约1209亿美元。 这将使三星成为全球最赚钱的公司，甚至超过$NVDA和$GOOGL。 以下是前十名排名： 1. 三星电子 ~1630亿美元 (2027年) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL 1524.4亿美元 3. Apple $APPL 1330.5亿美元 4. Microsoft $MSFT 1276.5亿美元 5. 海力士 $SKHYNIX 1209亿美元 (2027年) 6. NVIDIA $NVDA 1165.1亿美元 7. Amazon $AMZN 952.2亿美元 8. Meta $META 850.9亿美元 9. 伯克希尔哈撒韦 $BRK 815亿美元 10. 摩根大通 $JPM 728.1亿美元 这是基于companiesmarketcap来源的2027年前瞻净利润与过去十二个月(TTM)净利润的对比。感谢@jukan05提供摩根士丹利报告。上述数据排除了沙特阿美(National companies)等国有企业。 来自$MU、三星和海力士的存储超级周期显然已经到来。
英文原文
The Memory Supercycle is here. New reports from Morgan Stanley est. - Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD - SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD. That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL. Here are the top 10 rankings: 1. Samsung Electronics ~$163.0B (2027) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL $152.44B 3. Apple $APPL $133.05B 4 Microsoft $MSFT $127.65B 5. Sk Hynix $120.9B (2027 6. NVIDIA $NVDA $116.51B 7. Amazon $AMZN $95.22B 8 Meta$META $85.09B 9. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $81.5B 10. JPMorgan Chase $JPM $72.81B This is forward 2027 net income compared to TTM net income sourced by from companiesmarketcap. Credit to @jukan05 for the Morgan Stanley report. Excluding National companies like Saudi Aramco in these figures. The memory supercyle from $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix is here clearly here.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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区分数据中心重估与新瓶颈发现的投资逻辑差异。
像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这样的公司是 2026 年高确信度的标的。但这与一家市值 5000 万美元的小众公司突然因 $NVDA 或 $MSFT 囤货而需求激增的情况不同。数据中心(DC)相关股票可能获得 1 年 2-3 倍的估值重估，但这与新瓶颈带来的 2000%+ 信息发现效应截然不同。像 $UUUU 或 $MP 这样的已知瓶颈也是如此。话说回来，我在文章中把磷化铟(indium phosphide)和导弹拼错了，可以看出我是手写的（也很尴尬）。
英文原文
Companies like $NBIS or $CIFR are high conviction for 2026. But it’s not the same as a small $50m niche company, suddenly being in over-demand from $NVDA or $MSFT stockpiling inventory. You might get a 2-3x 1Y re-rating with DCs but it’s a different story than 2000%+ information discovery of a new bottleneck. Same with known bottlenecks like $UUUU or $MP That being said I also misspelled indium phosphide and missiles in my article so you can tell I hand wrote it (also embarrassing)
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马斯克起诉OpenAI或引发AI产业链连锁反应，市场已部分定价该风险。
突发：埃隆·马斯克起诉 OpenAI，索赔 1340 亿美元。 预测市场今日给出的马斯克胜诉概率为 59%。 这可能令人担忧。 如果 OpenAI 败诉： 市场可能会引发与 OpenAI 相关的 AI 生态系统连锁反应（Contagion）。 $AMD 或 $CRWV 以及像 $ORCL（Stargate 项目）到 $MSFT 这样的公司将是巨大的输家，因为它们严重依赖 OpenAI。 此外，还有涉及 Coreweave 的 $APLD 和 $CORZ 等公司的三阶效应（Third-order effects）。 $AMD 的合作伙伴如 $RIOT 也是如此。 例如： 1. 微软/甲骨文 -> 数十亿美元的投资减值，建设 + GPU 利用率滞后将造成数十亿美元损失 2. CoreWeave -> 积压订单收入面临巨大风险，利用率滞后 + 已因巨额债务利息而处于风险之中 3. APLD / CORZ -> 依赖 Coreweave 的收入，如果租户倒闭，其短期收入也会随之下降。 如果 OpenAI 被迫支付巨额赔偿金，回归严格的非营利地位，或因流动性危机破产（无法履行合同义务）： 这可能会触发许多与 OpenAI 相关的 AI 板块股票的连锁反应事件。 当然，这是最坏的情况。 我的预期是中间地带： -> 马斯克赢得审判（或在判决前迫使达成和解）。 -> OpenAI 被迫支付巨额罚款（例如 100 亿 -200 亿美元）并可能开源其旧模型 -> $MSFT 可能会介入支付罚款或重组债务，因为利害关系太大。 或者在马斯克 41% 的败诉概率下：无事发生，与 OpenAI 相关的公司将安然无恙。 然而，市场似乎已经通过甲骨文（$330 -> $195）和 Coreweave（$150 -> $101）的价格大幅调整，定价了 OpenAI 连锁反应风险带来的大量不确定性。 这起诉讼绝对是市场关注的最大事件之一。
英文原文
Breaking: Elon Musk has sued OpenAI for $134 Billion. Prediction markets have priced the odds of Elon winning at 59% as of today. This may be alarming. If OpenAI loses this: Markets may trigger a contagion across the AI ecosystem tied to OpenAI. $AMD or $CRWV and companies like $ORCL (Stargate) to $MSFT are massive losers as they're heavily levered to OpenAI. Then there's third order effects on companies as $APLD and $CORZ involved to Coreweave. Same goes with $AMD partners, such as $RIOT. For example: 1. Microsoft / Oracle -> Write down billions in investment, buildout + GPU utilization lag would cost billions 2. CoreWeave -> Massive risk to backlog revenue, utilization lag + already at risk due to massive debt interest 3. APLD / CORZ -> Depend on Coreweave for revenue, if the tenant goes down, so does their near term revenue. If OpenAI are forced to pay massive damages, return to a strict non-profit status, or declare bankruptcy due to liquidity crises (and cannot fulfill its contractual obligations): This might trigger a contagion event across many AI sector names tied to OpenAI. Of course this is the worst case scenario. My expectation is middle ground: -> Musk wins the trial (or forces a settlement just before the verdict). -> OpenAI is forced to pay a massive fine (e.g., $10B–$20B) and possibly open-source its older models -> $MSFT likely steps in to pay the fine or restructure the debt since there's too much at stake. Or in the 41% chance Musk loses: nothing happens, and companies tied to OpenAI will be fine. However it looks markets already priced in a lot of that uncertainty with OpenAI contagion risk with Oracle ($330 -> $195) and Coreweave ($150 -> $101). This lawsuit is definitely one of the biggest events markets are watching.
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AAOI作为垂直整合玩家，受益于美国制造及云厂商扩张。
@yianisz 同意，$AAOI 是少数几家美国垂直整合玩家之一。显然，主要挑战在于实现规模化，但它极大地受益于“美国制造”的顺风——即 $MSFT、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商的产能扩张。
英文原文
@yianisz Agreed, $AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players. Obviously with this, main challenge is getting it to scale, but it benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds -> $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler ramps.
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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HBM 瓶颈导致传统建模失效，磷化铟成新瓶颈，$AXTI 因卡位 AI 建设具极高价值。
当出现像 $MU 或 SK 海力士的 HBM（高带宽内存）这样极不常规的瓶颈时，诸如 NTM（下一财年）这样的标准建模就会失效。目前 HBM 的需求极度缺乏弹性，买家不再询问价格，即使在价格飙升数百%后，他们仍在寻求配额分配。在这种情况下，基于 $NVDA 2025 年上半年 EML（边缘机器学习）的现有短缺，以及 $MSFT 等公司仅其项目就需要全球两位数的磷化铟(InP)产量（针对 2026 年下半年至 2027 年），$AXTI 很可能在接下来几个月成为下一个瓶颈。因此，当 $GOOGL 等超大规模云服务商为避免 TPU 项目停滞而迫切寻求配额时，原本数亿 TAM（总可寻址市场）可能迅速膨胀至数十亿甚至上百亿，这使得对瓶颈的建模变得不可能。这本质上是买入“比特分配”、原料控制和瓶颈环节。一家市值 13 亿美元的公司卡住了整个 AI 建设的脖子，在我看来很便宜。我不知道这会走向何方，但我预计会出现极大的价格挤压（我们在 SMM 上已看到迹象），这将增加 $AXTI 的底线利润。许可证波动一直是一个风险因素。但同样，任何延迟都会因为这是单点故障而卡住整个 AI 建设，前提是如果中国继续对日本实施出口管制。
英文原文
Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix. HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases. And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027. So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out. This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI. License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.
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材料出口管制致AXTI垄断，下游产能受阻，错杀带来机会
他们确实可以，这一瓶颈向下游传导，损害了 $COHR 到 $LITE 向 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡。特别是鉴于住友/JX 面临材料出口管制导致的短缺，$AXTI 将在几个季度后处于垄断地位。人们非理性地对 2024 年合同的前置收益和递延收入确认做出反应，而忽视了当前状况，在我看来这提供了一个绝佳的机会。
英文原文
They can, and this bottleneck flows downstream and hurts $COHR to $LITE capacity ramp into $GOOGL to $MSFT. Especially given $AXTI will be monopoly status in a few quarter once Sumitomo/JX face shortages from material export controls. People illogically reacting to former earnings from 2024 contracts and deferred revenue recognition, while ignoring the situation now presents a great opportunity imo
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分析$AXTI在InP衬底供应链的垄断瓶颈地位及非对称投资机会。
磷化铟(InP)衬底的可寻址市场(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信大宗商品。 大多数分析师或卖方报告建模错误，因为其增长并非线性。 这是$AXTI在那些渴望获得配额的全球万亿美元级公司之间，对一种关键材料形成的博弈论式供应瓶颈。 你可以看到，一旦$AXTI和InP的供应短缺启动，其远期TAM和利润率将像高带宽内存(HBM)一样呈指数级增长。我之前做过这个评论，以下是总结： 1. 7N铟原料的价格在上海有色网(SMM)开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI出口至西方，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间的分化。 12月19日：亚洲金属网报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响InP衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模云服务商/西方供应链已经为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长激光二极管(EML)产能后，他们已产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模云服务商的部署因产能问题而放缓。 -> 他们将向上游确保材料（此前因是电信大宗商品而极便宜），然后这就像HBM一样变成博弈论式的配额战。但除了$AXTI，你基本上没有其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数的产能，但实际上根本不够。 3. 最关键的是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面的材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子AI升级中，你会如何评估单一公司的单点故障价值。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会随之崩溃。例如，CEO表示在出口管制前（以及他们筹集1亿美元增加产能前），他们占InP供应链的40%。 而这个巨大的整个AI供应链瓶颈仅估值13亿美元，而一些没有实质影响的随机量子公司却价值100多亿美元。 由于没人知道衬底或原料价格会去向何方，很难准确建模那些TAM突然从数亿变为用于每个AI部署的瓶颈和目标价(PT)。 对我来说，这只是买入拥有最纯粹非对称性博弈的瓶颈（现在恰好是垄断）。
英文原文
TAM for InP substrates was few hundred million previously since it was a niche telecom commodity. Most analysts or charters model this wrong since it's not linear. It's a game theory supply bottleneck of a critical material that $AXTI controls between all the world's trillion dollar companies that are desperate for allocation. You can see both forward TAM and margins increase exponentially like HBM once supply shortage kicks in for $AXTI and InP. I made this comment earlier but this is a summary: 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's impossible to accurately model bottlenecks and PTs where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes. For me it's just buying into the bottleneck with the purest asymmetry play there is (which happens to be a monopoly now).
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AXTI成AI供应链关键瓶颈，预计3-6个月产能告急。
这可能是历史上首次，全球所有万亿美元市值的超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)都被 $AXTI 这样一家小公司卡住脖子。而在日本对华出口管制禁令后，该公司将在该瓶颈环节占据垄断地位。我不知道市场将如何评估这一瓶颈，我只是单纯指出这一点。你应该自己做研究！不过，我估计在3-6个月内，AI供应链将进入临界状态，当时住友/JX的库存开始耗尽，且超大规模云服务商开始扩产并意识到由于磷化铟(InP)的次级效应，光子组件(photonic components)已无更多产能。仅 $MSFT 一家就预计将在2026年Q4及2027年 Maia 扩产期间占据整个 InP 供应链产出的两位数份额，而他们甚至尚未开始扩产。
英文原文
This is probably the first time in history all the world's trillion dollar hyperscalers are bottlenecked by such a tiny company in $AXTI. And that company would have a monopoly position in that bottleneck post-export China control ban on Japan. I don't know how markets will evaluate this bottleneck, I'm just simply pointing it out. You should do your own research! However, I would estimate that AI supply chains hit a critical state in 3-6 months time when Sumitomo/JX start running out of inventory and when hyperscalers start to ramp up + realize there's no more capacity for photonic components (by second order effect bc of inp). $MSFT alone was projected to take up double digits of the entire InP supply chain output from Maia ramp in Q4 2026, 2027, and they haven't even started to ramp up yet.
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AXTI垄断InP成AI基建单点故障，市场开始关注。
$AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域实际上处于垄断地位，且在中国对日本实施出口管制禁令后，成为以下 AI 基础设施建设中唯一的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)环节： - 英伟达 Nvidia ($4.6T) - 微软 Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - 亚马逊 Amazon ($2.57T) - 谷歌 Google ($3.89T) 看来市场开始意识到这一点了。https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a monopoly for InP, and the single point of failure for the AI buildout for: - Nvidia ($4.6T) - Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - Amazon ($2.57T) - Google ($3.89T) after China's export control ban on Japan. Looks like markets are starting to find out. https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
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解析中国对日InP禁令细节及美日在关键材料谈判中的不同处境。
这很微妙，但我尽力解释： 1) 这实际上是禁令，不仅仅是出口管制。这涉及任何与军事最终用户或军事用途相关的内容。对于住友电气(Sumitomo Electric)等主要国防承包商来说，这实际上就是禁令。 还有“次级抵制”规则，直接影响住友/JX： 例如，如果另一家公司购买磷化铟(InP)原料，然后试图将原料/成品收发器转让给日本公司，中国可能会禁止相关公司。 这部分非常微妙。如果你想知道为什么美国在这些出口管制下没事，是因为美国允许英伟达(Nvidia)向中国出售H200芯片，作为交换，中国“解锁”了铟和镓等原材料对美国商业科技公司的供应。这是第72号公告，暂停了对美国民用客户“镓、锗和铟”最严格的“原则性禁令”，直到2026年11月27日。但隐含地，微软(MSFT)、Lite等被视为更偏向商业性质（即使它们不是，MSFT确实服务于美国政府），因为这是为了允许中国训练其AI模型而进行的交换。不幸的是，日本没有像美国这样的筹码。 2) 在2026年公告之前，磷化铟(InP)已被列入中国官方的两用物项出口管制清单。金属报告和公司披露确认，InP于2025年2月被置于出口许可证要求之下。 2026年1月关于日本的公告适用于中国两用物项出口管制清单上的所有物品（800-900项）。由于InP已在2025年最终确定为两用物项，因此自动包含在针对日本的新限制中。 $AXTI被允许向受出口管制和光学制造商限制的西方国家发货，但不允许向日本发货。（西方超大规模云服务商本来就是主要目标） 住友将无法获得能够大规模生产成品所需的材料，因为中国控制了全球InP衬底生产所需的大部分关键材料。 所以情况并不完全相同。
英文原文
So this is pretty nuanced but i'll try my best to explain: 1) It's actually a ban. Not just export controls. This refers to anything related to military end-users or for military purposes. For major defense contractors like, Sumitomo Electric, this is effectively a ban. There was also the Secondary Boycott rule, which directly impacts Sumitomo/JX: Eg. if another company buys InP feedstock then tries to transfer the feedstock/finish transceiver to a Japanese company, China could ban the related companies next. This part is really nuanced. So if you're wondering why US is fine under these export controls, US allowed Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China and in exchange, China "unlocked" the supply of raw materials like indium and gallium for U.S. commercial tech companies. This was Announcement No. 72, which suspended the strictest "principle bans" on "gallium, germanium, and indium" for U.S. civilian customers until nov 27, 2026. But implicitly, Microsoft, Lite, and others are treated more as commercial (even they're not, MSFT does serve the US gov), since this was an exchange to allow China train its AI models the critical materials. Unfortunately, Japan has no leverage like the US on this. 2) InP was already added to China's official dual use export control list prior to the 2026 announcement. Metal reports and company disclosures confirmed that InP were placed under export licensing requirements in February 2025. The Jan 2026 announcement regarding Japan applies to all items on China's dual use export control list (800-900 items). Since InP was already finalized as a dual-use item in 2025, it is automatically included in the new restrictions targeting Japan. $AXTI is allowed to ship to Western countries from export controls and optical makers but not to Japan. (Western hyperscalers are main target anyway) Sumitomo would not have the materials able to make the finished products to ship at scale since China controls majority of the world's critical materials required for inp substrate prod. So it's not quite the same position.
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铟价分化及日本出口管制使AXTI成AI光子学关键瓶颈，估值被低估。
这只是我个人的观点。自上次财报电话会议以来，许多情况已发生变化： 1. 7纳米铟(Indium)原料价格在SMM开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI向西方出口，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间出现分化。 12月19日：Asian Metal报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实截至周末，定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响磷化铟(InP)衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模数据中心/西方供应链已为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长(EML)产能后，他们面临产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模数据中心部署放缓，可能源于产能问题。 -> 他们将向上游锁定材料（此前作为电信大宗商品极其便宜），然后这变成类似高带宽内存(HBM)的博弈论分配战。但除了$AXTI，你几乎找不到其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数产能，但实际根本不够。 3. 最大变化是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子学AI扩张中，对单一公司故障点价值的评估。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会崩溃。例如，CEO称在出口管制（及其1亿美元融资扩产）之前，他们占InP供应链的40%。 这个整个AI供应链的巨大瓶颈市值仅为13亿美元，而一些无实质影响的量子公司市值却超100亿美元。 很难对瓶颈进行建模，因为数亿总可寻址市场(TAM)突然用于每个AI部署，且无人知晓衬底或原料价格去向。
英文原文
So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call, 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.
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尽管微软下调预期，仍看好AAOI长期必然性，建议等待。
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI 与 $MSFT Maia 项目深度绑定，而微软刚刚大幅下调了预期（这就是为什么 $MRVL 今天跌了 4%）。 尽管如此，我依然非常看好它，因为这更多是必然趋势，只是存在执行层面的不确定性，只需等待一两年即可。
英文原文
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today). I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.
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材料价格创历史新高，西方公司支付溢价，超大规模厂商尚未开始大规模采购。
@itsthesquonky 我会再给它几个月时间。你已经可以看到材料价格触及历史高点(ATH)，西方公司正在支付巨额溢价。 这还是在产能爬坡(pre-ramp)之前，$MSFT、$AMZN 和 $META 甚至 barely 开始。（$NVDA 预订了产能，造成了最初的冲击）
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’d give it a few months. You can already see material prices hitting ATHs, with Western companies paying large premiums. This is pre-ramp too, $MSFT, $AMZN, and $META barely even started. ( $NVDA booked out capacity, causing the initial shock) https://t.co/rEG5X7Co81
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AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
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AXTI因InP衬底短缺及中美价差套利，受益于AI供应链瓶颈，具非对称上涨潜力。
磷化铟(InP)衬底短缺与“价差”套利 - $AXTI 市场研究显示，InP和光学组件正变得类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的短缺和价格狂热。 最初的瓶颈是由$NVDA垄断$COHR到$LITE的电吸收调制激光器(EML)产能造成的（TrendForce）。 以下是详细分析： 据报道，$NVDA已对EML激光芯片进行战略性产能预订，将这些特定组件的交货期推至2027年以后。 通过预订像$LITE和$COHR这样受InP限制的集成器件制造商(IDM)的成品产能，英伟达实际上消除了光学引擎的产能。 “二阶效应”：因此，许多超大规模云服务商（如$MSFT到$AMZN）可能推迟了其路线图/爬坡计划，并正在寻找产能。 光学制造商也在疯狂寻找替代来源。 由于主要IDM已被预订，超大规模云服务商正在向上游移动，直接锁定晶圆、衬底和原料产能，从而在材料层面放大需求。 上海金属市场上6N和7N级铟均处于历史高位；西方市场价格更高，代表了中国与西方市场之间的价格分化。 例如，6N级铟价格约为每公斤412.83-425.46美元。 6N级西方价格约为668.00美元（1月1日，来源：Indium Corporation，5-9公斤数量），溢价超过50%+。（与超大规模云服务商的直接现货谈判价格可能不同）。 7N级的溢价可能更高，衬底享有的溢价最高（无公开数据，但一些估计达到三位数溢价）。 然而，瓶颈现已向上游迁移至衬底本身（以及三阶效应，原料）以锁定产能。 $AXTI在InP瓶颈中或许扮演着最关键且独特的角色，即“InP供应链的40%”（$AXTI CEO ER语录）： 低成本：AXTI的工厂位于北京。他们采购材料（拥有10+家材料供应商）并自行精炼成成品衬底。 高售价：他们将成品InP衬底销往全球市场，那里的价格因短缺和西方铟价格而通胀。 套利：只要AXTI继续获得出口许可证，他们就能捕获中国低制造成本与全球高售价之间的巨大价差。 相比之下，西方公司很大程度上受到上游材料成本和西方溢价的影响。因此，$AXTI下个季度的利润率应会迅速扩张，加上Northland通过1亿美元股份出售注入的生产产能。 这源于12月下旬亚洲金属(Asian Metal)的报道，表明中国供应商明确“提高了对美出口报价”： 2025年12月19日：亚洲金属报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，确认到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这源于超大规模云服务商的产能垄断、交货期延长以及“AI”材料定价与商品基准的脱钩。 InP衬底“大幅涨价”的条件不仅存在，而且正在活跃。 在整个2026年，随着超大规模云服务商向上游锁定需求，InP衬底价格以及由此一步之遥的铟商品价格可能会迅速飙升。 从InP衬底+InP原料价格可能的抛物线式上涨中双向受益的公司将是$AXTI，在$16股价、约8.5亿美元市值下呈现非对称上行空间。然而，风险依然存在，因为他们严重依赖出口许可证和美中贸易关系。 TLDR，AXT： 1. 位于InP衬底和InP原料瓶颈的中心 2. 受益于分配战期间中国生产与美国超大规模云服务商溢价之间的利润率套利和衬底价格飙升。 3. 控制着西方超大规模云服务商AI建设所需衬底的主要全球现货产出份额。 超大规模云服务商看到英伟达垄断了EML产能，现在可能正在查看像$AXTI、住友或原料（Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA）这样的公司以确保其路线图。 AXT是8.5亿美元市值下最有趣的公司之一，因为它控制着超大规模云服务商AI建设的关键瓶颈，并捕获InP衬底价格飙升+利润率套利机会。
英文原文
The InP substrate shortage and "Spread" Arbitrage - $AXTI Market research is showing InP and optical components to become analogous to the HBM shortage and price craze. The initial bottleneck was caused by $NVDA monopolizing of the production capacity of EML from $COHR to $LITE (TrendForce). Here's the breakdown: $NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027. By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines. The "Second Order effect": As a result, many hyperscalers have likely delayed their roadmaps/ramp from $MSFT to $AMZN and are looking for capacity. Optical makers have also scrambled for alternative sources. Since the primary IDMs are booked, hyperscalers are moving upstream to secure wafers, substrate, and feedstock capacity directly, creating a effect that is amplifying demand at the materials level. Both 6N and 7N Indium are at all time highs on the Shanghai Metal Markets; prices sit higher on Western markets, representing a price bifurcation between China and Western markets. 6N for example sits ~$412.83-$425.46 per kg. 6N Western prices are ~$668.00 (Jan 1st, source: Indium Corporation at 5-9 kg quantities), over 50%+ premium. (Spot direct negotiations to hyperscalers would likely have different prices). Premiums for 7N would likely higher margin, with substrates commanding the most premium (not public data, but some estimates go into triple digit premiums) However, the bottleneck has now migrated upstream to substrate itself (and third order effect, feedstock) to secure capacity. $AXTI perhaps plays one of the most critical roles and unique roles as "40% of the InP supply chain" ( $AXTI CEO ER quote) in the InP bottleneck: Low costs: AXTI's factory is in Beijing. They source materials (own 10+ materials suppliers) and refine them themselves into finish substrates. Sell High: They sell finished InP substrates to the global market, where prices are inflated by the shortage and the Western Indium price. Arbitrage: As long as AXTI continues their export permits, they capture the massive spread between low Chinese manufacturing costs and high global selling prices. This is compared to Western companies that are largely affected by upstream material costs and Western premiums. As a result $AXTI, margins next quarter should expand rapidly on top of their production capacity funded by the $100m share sale injection by Northland. This is implicated from reports from late December reports from Asian Metal, indicating that Chinese suppliers explicitly "raised offering prices" for exports to the US: December 19, 2025: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This stems from capacity monopolization by hyperscalers, extended lead times, and a decoupling of "AI" material pricing from commodity baselines. The conditions for a "Massive Price Increase" for InP substrates are not just present, they are active. Throughout 2026, both the price of InP substrates, and by one-hop, the commodity price of Indium would likely see a rapid surge as hyperscalers go upstream to secure demand. The company that benefits both ways from the a possible parabolic rally in InP substrate + InP feedstock prices would be $AXTI, presenting an asymmetrical upside at $16, ~$850M MC. However, the risks are present as they're heavily reliant on export permits and US-China trade relations. TLDR, AXT: 1. Sits in the center of both InP substrate and InP feedstock bottlenecks 2. Benefits from margin arbitrage and substrate price surges between China production and US hyperscaler premiums during allocation battles. 3. Controls a major a major percentage of the world's merchant output for substrates required for the Western hyperscaler AI buildout. Hyperscalers saw Nvidia monopolized EML capacity and are likely looking at companies like $AXTI, Sumitomo or feedstock (Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA) to secure their roadmaps now. AXT is one of the most interesting companies at $850m given it controls the critical bottleneck to the hyperscaler AI buildout and captures both the InP substrate price surge + margin arbitrage opportunities.
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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NBIS波动极大，但看好其2026年跑赢大盘并扭转趋势。
$NBIS 目前基本上是一家由 5 家不同公司组成的实体，也是整个市场中波动率（Beta）最高的股票之一。 不过其波动性极大。其同行如 $CRWV 前阵子单日涨幅曾达 24%。 Nebius 在最初达成 $MSFT 交易时单日也曾上涨 40%。且在两周内经历了 100->140->100 的完整轮回。所以波动性极强，绝对不适合心脏脆弱者。 抛开这点，我对 Nebius 在 2026 年跑赢大盘并扭转当前趋势极具信心。这基本上等同于投资一家 FSD 级别的 L4 级自动驾驶出租车公司、一家几乎被所有财富 500 强使用的数据库，以及其他同比增长三位数并将更多利润反哺核心业务的业务板块。
英文原文
$NBIS is basically 5 different companies in 1 at this point and one of the most high-beta stocks in the entire market. Extremely volatile though. It's peers like $CRWV went up 24% in a day the other week off. Nebius also went up 40% in a day on the initial $MSFT deal. And round tripped 100->140 -> 100 all in the span of two weeks. So just extremely volatile and definitely not a stock for the faint of heart. That aside I'm extremely confident in Nebius outperforming in 2026 and reversing current trends. It's basically investing in a FSD-level 4 Robotaxi company, a DB that almost every fortune 500 company uses, and other moving parts growing triple digits Y/Y that derive more profit to the core business.
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驳斥MRVL被取代谣言，指出物理限制使其无法短期切换，视抛视为买入良机。
终于深入研究了 $MRVL。 我的第一反应：市场和分析员/新闻到底在抽什么？ 来自 Maia 量产的收入几乎是 $MRVL 2025 财年总收入的两倍。 看数据，这令人震惊： 富邦 (Fubon) 预计 Marvell 仅在 2027 年微软 Maia 量产中就能获得 100-120 亿美元的收入。 作为对比，Marvell 2025 财年收入为 57.7 亿美元。 无论如何看，Marvell 看起来都是博通 (Broadcom) 的强劲竞争对手（在收购 Celestial 之后），也是一个极佳的长线标的。 但是... The Information / Benchmark 发布了新闻称： - 微软正在与博通谈判，以在未来几代产品中取代 Marvell。 - 亚马逊 Trainium 3 和 4 的设计流向了台湾竞争对手 Alchip Technologies。 导致股价大幅抛售。 深入研究后，这怎么可能呢？ “Marvell Technology 股价下跌，因为 Benchmark Equity Research 下调评级， citing 失去亚马逊 AI 芯片业务。” “Benchmark 认为 Marvell 输给了 Alchip，尽管 Marvell 最近预测数据中心增长强劲。” - Trainium 3 的生产已锁定 Marvell 的设计。如果不从头设计全新芯片，你无法“切换”到 Alchip。如果要共享范围，当然可以，但措辞简直糟糕透顶。 $MRVL 已经获得了 $AMZN 整个 2026 年的 Trainium 3 订单，亚马逊为什么要取消所有订单然后选择新供应商？ 可能有不同的范围、额外的设计服务等，但所有新闻的框架听起来像是 $MRVL 被取代了。 Benchmark 自己在造成损害后（通过更多“行业讨论”）大幅收回了说法，称 Marvell 并未完全失去 Trainium 3/4，而是亚马逊增加了 Alchip 作为额外设计支持，而 Marvell 仍保留地位。 但股价已经受损。 至于 The Information 关于 $MSFT Maia 输给博通的报道，这是煽动性新闻。 摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 后来直接出来基本说这是假的，“没有 ASIC 项目份额损失”。 在微软交易上，市场完全错过了“立即取代”和“未来几代”讨论之间的细微差别。 物理规律使得从 Maia 到博通的立即切换不可能，除非有惊人的多年延迟。 现在用博通取代 Marvell 的 Maia 300 需要废弃整个 2nm 掩模集，重新设计 I/O 环，并重启 3 年的验证周期。Marvell 特定的 SerDes IP 也嵌入在芯片的 I/O 环中（重定时器和交换机通信）。如果微软目标是在 2027 年量产 Maia 300，芯片必须在 2026 年中后期进入验证阶段。这意味着物理设计今天已经冻结或接近冻结。 今天（2025 年 12 月）与 $AVGO 的新 ASIC 设计将面临以下最短时间线： - 架构与 RTL（12 个月）：逻辑定义和 IP 选择。 - 物理设计到流片（9-12 个月） - 掩模生产与晶圆厂（3-5 个月）：TSMC 2nm 周期。 - 硅后验证（6-9 个月） 总时间：~30-38 个月。 即使加快几个月，这些“与 $AVGO 的讨论”最早也要到 2028 年才能大规模部署。为了赶上 2027 年的量产时间表，微软必须出货 Marvell 的设计。 此外，微软的机架基础设施使用 Marvell 的“Alaska”重定时器和 DSP 在电缆中。 微软必须： - 重新认证机架中每根电缆和背板的信号完整性。 - 拆下主板上的 Marvell 重定时器并替换为博通版本 还要更改他们的定制液冷机架“sidekick”，这是针对 $MRVL Maia 芯片特定版图分布指定的。$AVGO 芯片会有完全不同的物理版图和热密度，他们需要重新设计机架。 所以当市场计入立即取代风险并基于 TMZ 式的讨论八卦谣言交易时，他们完全是在开玩笑，谣言称微软想探索选项。 $MRVL CEO 甚至出面表示他们手中握有明年全年预测的“采购订单”。2026 年的预测可能偏低，因为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的量产都面临延迟。 但如果你看长期 Q4 2026 到 2027，仅从他们的订单和 Maia 300 来看：即使仅估计 ~200 亿美元收入带来 7.72 美元每股收益，30 倍市盈率（之前交易在 35-40 倍），如果是两年后等待，股价将从 85 美元涨到 231.60 美元/股。 所以 TLDR：整个“取代”理论被极其完全地误解了，只是噪音。通常我不会为此写整篇文章，但看到 The Information 和其他新闻一次又一次出现，通过煽动性措辞传播错误信息，这简直疯了。 中期切换在物理上是不可能的，市场误解了取代。所以最近的抛售看起来是一个坚实的买入机会。 至于未来的讨论，当然任何公司都希望供应商多元化。如果 Meta 想从博通多源采购，$MRVL 也可以对 $META MTAI 未来几代做同样的事。 如果仅按单个项目 Maia 300 建模并忽略媒体噪音，$MRVL 看起来非常有前景。
英文原文
Finally took a deeper look at $MRVL. My first reaction: What are the markets and analysts/news smoking? Revenue derived from Maia ramp is literally double $MRVL's FY 2025 revenue. If we look at the numbers, it's staggering: Marvell is modeled to take in $10-$12B in revenue (Fubon) in Microsoft Maia ramp in 2027. Alone. To put that in perspective, Marvell's FY 2025 revenue was $5.77B. No matter how I look at it, Marvell looks like a strong Broadcom competitor (after Celestial acqusition) and a terrific long. But... The Information / Benchmark released news that: - Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to displace Marvell in future generations. - Amazon Trainium 3 and 4 designs went to Taiwanese competitor Alchip Technologies. causing a massive selloff. After looking into it more, how is this even possible? "Marvell Technology declines after Benchmark Equity Research downgrades the stock, citing a loss of Amazon’s AI chip business." "Benchmark believes Marvell lost Amazon’s Trainium 3 and 4 designs to Alchip, despite Marvell’s recent forecast of strong data-center growth." - Trainium 3 production are locked to Marvell's design. You can't "swap" to Alchip without designing an entirely new chip from scratch. If you want to share scope, sure but the wording is absolutely atrocious. $MRVL already secured Trainium 3 orders from $AMZN throughout 2026, why in the world would Amazon cancel them all and then go with a new vendor? There can be different scope, additional design services, etc. but the framing from all the news sounds like $MRVL is being displaced. Benchmark itself later walked it back materially after causing damage (via more "industry discussions") and said Marvell did not lose Trainium 3/4 outright, but that Amazon added Alchip for additional design support while Marvell retains a position. But the damage has already been done to stock price. As for The Information report on $MSFT Maia loss to Broadcom this is sensational journalism. JP Morgan later literally came out and basically said it's all false, "there has been no ASIC program share loss". On the Microsoft deal, markets completely missed the nuance between "immediate displacement" and "future generation" discussions. The physics of this make an immediate swap impossible from Maia to Broadcom without incredible multiple-year delays. To replace Marvell with Broadcom for the Maia 300 now would require scrapping the entire 2nm mask set, redesigning the I/O ring, and restarting a 3-year validation cycle. Marvell’s specific SerDes Is is also embedded in the chip’s I/O ring (retimers and switches comms). If Microsoft targets a 2027 ramp for Maia 300, the chip must be in validation phase by mid-to-late 2026. This implies the physical design is already frozen or nearing freeze today. A new ASIC design with $AVGO today (Dec 2025) would face this minimum timeline: - Architecture & RTL (12 months): Logic definition and IP selection. - Physical Design to tape ot (9-12 months) - Mask prod & Fab (3-5 months): TSMC 2nm cycle. - Post-Silicon validation (6-9 months) Total Time: ~30–38 months. Even if this is sped up by many months, these "Discussions with $AVGO " not be ready for volume deployment until 2028 at the very earliest. To hit the 2027 ramp timelines, Microsoft must ship the Marvell design. Then there's Microsoft’s rack infrastructure uses Marvell’s "Alaska" retimers and DSPs in the cables. Microsoft would have to: - Re-qualify the signal integrity of every cable and backplane in the rack. - Rip out Marvell retimers from the motherboard and replace them with Broadcom versions As well as change their custom liquid-cooling rack "sidekick", which was specified toward specific distribution of the $MRVL Maia chip’s floorplan. A $AVGO chip would have a completely different physical floorplan and thermal density and they'd need to regineer the rack. So market are completely trolling if when they price in immediate displacement risk and trade on TMZ-style discussion gossip rumors that Microsoft wanted to explore options. $MRVL CEO even went out and said they have "purchase orders in hand" for the entirety of the next year's forecast. 2026 forecasts are probably light because $AMZN and $MSFT both faced delays on their ramp. But if you look at longer term Q4 2026 into 2027, we just from their orders and Maia 300 alone: even just estimating $7.72 EPS from ~$20.0B revenue, 30x P/E (they've traded 35-40 before), would be $231.60/share from $85 if you want to wait 2 years. So TLDR: The whole “replacement” theory is extremely completely misinterpreted and is just noise. Normally, I wouldn't write a whole post on it, but seeing The Information and other news pop up again, and again, spreading misinformation through sensational wording is just crazy. There's a physical impossibility of a mid-cycle swap and market misunderstanding of displacement. So the recent sell-off looks like a solid buying opportunity. As for future discussions, of course any company would want vendor diversification. $MRVL can go do the same with $META MTAI future generations too if Meta wants to multi-source away from Broadcom. If you model just by single project Maia 300 alone and ignore media noise, $MRVL looks incredibly promising.
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论证微软向Iren预付款项的商业逻辑。
@Lazarus_Capital 我召唤 @Agrippa_Inv 作为我的第一只宝可梦，来论证 $MSFT 为 $IREN 超大规模云服务商交易进行预付款的好处。
英文原文
@Lazarus_Capital I summon @Agrippa_Inv as my first Pokémon to argue benefits of $MSFT prepayment for $IREN hyperscaler deal.
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新云板块处于验证期，当前下跌是建立护城河前的黄金买入机会。
新云(Neoclouds)正处于“证明实力”阶段。 $NBIS 的年经常性收入(ARR)增长率高达700%+，达到70-90亿美元；$IREN 的数据也超过34亿美元。 许多公司拥有多年的收入可见性，并得到七大科技巨头(Mag7)超大规模云服务商的背书。 然而，市场表示： “这不是一个无限刷钱的漏洞”。 即股价上涨 -> 可转换票据/稀释 -> ARR增加 -> 循环往复。 它们现在都有资金，$NBIS 持有48亿美元以上的现金储备，$IREN 持有来自 $MSFT 预付款/票据的数十亿美元以完成建设并转化为自由现金流(FCF)。 尽管有《加速推进电气化法案(SPEED Act)》通过、OpenAI融资（降低交易对手风险）以及降息等顺风因素，但近期的下跌趋势似乎是年底税务收割、做空、主动式自动取款机(ATM)增发以及主要是： 等待证明这些公司能否从 $MSFT 与 IREN 的交易到 Nebius 的杠杆内部收益率(IRR)预测中，实现规模化的利润率。这似乎归结为执行力和等待下一次财报。 许多散户投资者在此期间似乎已经投降，但机构持股比例仅上升（$NBIS 从30%多升至50%以上）。 但非对称性就在这里： 如果 Nebius 管理层能实现20-30%的息税前利润(EBIT)利润率并达到70-90亿美元的 ARR 目标，那么在保守分析师给出200美元以上目标价(PT)的情况下，85美元的价格显得极其、极其低估。特别是考虑到 Clickhouse 的扩张/IPO 以及 Avride 与 Uber 合作的自动驾驶出租车规模化。 我在主题上也特别看好 $IREN 在微软交易上的杠杆 IRR 预测，以及来自 $CIFR / $WULF 与 $GOOGL 交易的新云数据中心(Colo)玩家。 简而言之：如果新云能在其预测的利润率、规模上执行到位，并在这2-3年的窗口期内建立自己的护城河，那么整个板块的抛售似乎是一个黄金机会。
英文原文
Neoclouds are in the "Prove It" phase. You have absurd 700%+ ARR growth rates to $7-9B from $NBIS and $3.4B+ figures from $IREN. Many have multiple year revenue visibility and backstop from Mag7 Hyperscalers. However, markets have said: "This is not an infinite money glitch". Where a stock goes up -> convertible note/dilution -> ARR increases -> repeat. They all have funding now, $NBIS sitting on a $4.8B+ cash stack, $IREN sitting on billions from $MSFT prepayment/notes to finish their buildout and turn that into FCF. Despite tailwinds from the initial SPEED act passing, OpenAI fundraising (for less counterpaty risk), and rate cuts, the recent downtrend seems to combine EoY tax harvesting with short selling, active ATMs, and mainly: Waiting for proof that these companies can deliver margins at scale from levered IRR projections on $MSFT's IREN deal to Nebius. It seems to comes down to execution and waiting for their next earnings report. Many retail investors seem to have capitulated during this time but institutional ownership has only gone up (30's from $NBIS to 50's+ now) But here's where the asymmetry comes in: If Nebius management scales to 20-30% EBIT margins with their $7-9B ARR target, this seems incredibly, incredibly off at $85 when conservative analysts are throwing out $200+ PTs. Especially considering possible Clickhouse ramp/IPO and Avride robotaxi scaling with Uber. I'm especially bullish thematically too with $IREN levered IRR projections on the Microsoft deal and Neocloud colo players from $CIFR / $WULF $GOOGL deals. TLDR: If Neoclouds can execute with their projected margins, scale, and create their own moats during this 2-3 year window, then the whole sector selloff seems like a golden opportunity.
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解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
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分析InP材料供应瓶颈，通过历史案例说明关键材料博弈论，预判超大规模云商将抢购InP衬底产能。
当我发WSB帖子时，我半开玩笑地提到$AXTI。但对于极端瓶颈和InP供应冲击，我可不是开玩笑的。这是一个关于关键材料博弈论的呼唤。 如果我们回顾历史上许多瓶颈案例： 1. 镝(Dysprosium)：约2300%涨幅（约$100/kg -> $2400/kg，2010-11年） 2. 氖气(Neon Gas)：约1000%-2000%涨幅（2022年） 3. 铑(Rhodium)：约$3,000/盎司 -> 约$29,000/盎司（约860%） 当前铟(In)的价格涨幅与其他材料相比如何？ 89%：（约$440/kg -> 约$832/kg）。 用于半导体的关键材料（如用于光刻激光器的氖气），因为芯片制造商如英特尔和三星在乌克兰冲突期间进行了储备，价格暴涨超过2000%。他们吸收了成本，因为氖气只占芯片价值的一小部分。 与氖气一样，磷化铟(InP)是一种关键的"赋能"材料。晶圆成本相对于AI集群成本（$100的晶圆对比$30,000的GPU）来说很小。超大规模云商宁愿吸收巨大的价格上涨，也不愿延迟部署。InP目前还没有出现这种情况，但我们很可能会看到。 传统分析师和许多AI模型不知道如何建模关键瓶颈，因为历史上很少有这样的案例：一种极其廉价的商品（如InP，TAM只有几亿美元）突然成为价值数万亿美元的AI建设中最关键的材料。 目前，超大规模云商可能已经向下游供应商Coherent/$LITE下了订单，但可能没有意识到激光器生产和产能受到上游材料短缺的制约而排满。 InP衬底（$AXTI + Sumitomo + JX生产）和磷化铟原料（$AXTI、Vital、$DOWA）都存在供应储备，需求超过供应数倍。 $NVDA最初通过锁定EML大量产能加剧了供应短缺。但短缺早在超大规模云商扩产之前就已经存在，大部分需求将在2026年底至2027年Trainium或Maia出现时涌入。 但如何绕过原始瓶颈并确保AI部署？ 直接从（$AXTI、Sumitomo）购买衬底产能，或者更进一层，购买InP原料并将其交给衬底生产商，以确保谷歌的TPU项目不会停滞。 与其他关键材料（如氖气用于光刻激光器）类似，磷化铟和InP衬底对整个AI建设更为关键： 1. Nvidia：InfiniBand / NVLink（光学 - 800G/1.6T EML光模块）- 对InP高度依赖 2. Google：Jupiter / Apollo（光学 - OCS），高度依赖 3. Microsoft：Azure Maia：高（800G DR4/FR4） 4. Meta：F16 / Artemis（800G）高 这还不包括其他Mag7公司如$AMZN或使用光子技术扩展ASIC的其他公司。 目前，分析师基于TAM对InP公司进行建模。例如，2024年InP晶圆市场总规模为$183M-$205M（Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence，2024年） - 6英寸（150mm）细分市场TAM：$65M - 预计2032年InP总TAM：$580M-$700M 现在看激光级磷化铟原料的TAM： - 多晶InP原料TAM：约$3亿 - 高纯度铟（6N/7N）仅：约$4亿 衬底数据：Mordor Intelligence（InP晶圆市场2025-2030）和Straits Research。 原料数据：Market Report Analytics（磷化铟多晶行业分析2025）。 这是一种极其便宜的电信产品，现在成为整个供应链中最珍贵的材料之一。 价格上涨3000%只会占$GOOGL TPU部署或$MSFT MAIA部署BOM值的低个位数。而仅微软2027年的扩产就会占用全部InP产能的两位数百分比。 就像2022年的英特尔或半导体行业一样，超大规模云商可能会像当时囤积氖气一样，直接购买InP衬底+InP作为"保险"。 如果"TAM"实际上只有几亿美元，但每个超大规模云商如果不确保这种材料就会面临部署延迟，那么这就变成了一场博弈论竞标战。 在一个因$100衬底而停滞的价值$200亿的TPU部署中，超大规模云商会毫不犹豫地支付$10,000（比当前价格高出100倍）。 这就是为什么当你看到InP衬底公司有$5000万订单积压（来自2024年），同样的$5000万产能对未来来说在极端情况下可能价值$5亿、$50亿甚至更多。 这是一个"尾部风险"投资，如果超大规模云商被这种材料卡住，回报是极高的，但并非没有重大的地缘政治风险和稀释。 我不知道会发生什么，但我预计2026年InP衬底和InP原料都会出现巨大瓶颈。 那么，如果像$AXTI这样的公司拥有整个InP供应链40%的份额（来源：AXT CEO），而估值只有$7亿，你会给它什么估值？
英文原文
When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI. But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock. This is a call on critical materials game theory. If we see many historically at bottlenecks: 1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11) 2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022) 3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%) The current Indium spike compared to others? 89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg). Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value. Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will. Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout. Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream. There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors. $NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up. But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment? Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall. And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout: 1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP 2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency 3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4) 4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics. Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024) - 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m - Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock: - Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million - High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research. Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025). This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain. Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity. Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas. If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war. In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation. That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario. This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock. So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?
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吐槽Reddit社区偏好极端化内容，戏谑提及微软ASIC项目
@illyquid 他们真的用自动审核屏蔽了 $MSFT ASIC 项目的名称 lol 不过我想再和我的好友们开开玩笑。显然，任何分析性的内容都需要被降智并推向极端，Reddit 的受众才会关心 https://t.co/WSH1u5r6Vt
英文原文
@illyquid They literally automodded away $MSFT ASIC program's name lol But thought I'd have some fun with my regarded friends again. Obviously anything analytical needs to be dumbed down and taken to the extreme for the Reddit audience to care https://t.co/WSH1u5r6Vt
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梳理AI光子学及InP衬底供应链核心标的，涵盖从底层材料到芯片的全链条。
呃，根据我个人的研究，为了全面覆盖我看好的一切： 1. $AXTI 位于整个供应链的最底端，占据 1/3 的磷化铟(InP)衬底和 1/4 的磷化铟(InP)份额。AI 供应链竟然与这只市值 7 亿美元的股票紧密相连，这完全出乎意料。 2. $DOWA + 住友电气，用于在衬底和材料方面进行西方对冲。 3. $AAOI, $LITE 针对超大规模云服务商的芯片，一家服务于 $AMZN/$MSFT，另一家服务于其他客户但更侧重于 $TPU。 4. $MRVL + $AVGO 我认为这就足以捕捉光子学物料清单(BOM)的价值以及磷化铟(InP)供应冲击。 还有一些其他有趣的标的，比如 Landmark Opto，我正在关注。 $POET 没进这个名单，反正你可以通过 $MRVL 获得敞口，除非我漏掉了什么。
英文原文
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI at the very bottom of the entire supply chain + 1/3rd of InP substrates 1/4th of InP. Completely unheard of that AI supply chain is tethered to this $700m stock. 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo Electric for Western Hedge on substrate + materials. 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler chips, one for $AMZN/ $MSFT, the other for everything but more levered to $TPU 4. $MRVL + $AVGO I think that’s kind of all you need to capture photonics BOM value + InP supply shock. There’s some other interesting ones like Landmark Opto that I’m looking at now. $POET didn’t quite make that list and you’d be getting exposure through $MRVL anyway, unless there’s something I missed
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分析AXTI/中国磷化铟瓶颈对AI供应链的致命影响及关键材料估值逻辑。
这是一份关于 $AXTI/中国 在衬底生产和激光级磷化铟方面导致整个 AI 基础设施建设出现单点故障的研究笔记。我并未对个别公司进行估值分析。但如果这一流程中断，$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 乃至 $GOOGL、$MSFT 都将面临极端的延迟。如果你们感兴趣，我会另写一篇文章关于如何对关键材料瓶颈进行估值。基本上，如果 2024 年的积压订单为 5000 万美元，而总可寻址市场 (TAM) 为 1.5 亿美元。而现在，由于它是关键材料，如果谷歌愿意为此支付 50 倍的溢价（仅为保持生存而增加 BOM 成本的百分之几），那么原本 5000 万美元积压订单的估值逻辑就会转变为未来产能的 25 亿美元。
英文原文
This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSFT faces extreme delays. I’ll write something else about valuing critical material bottlenecks if you want. But basically if a backlog was $50m from 2024 and TAM was $150m. And now because it’s a critical material, if Google would be willing to pay 50 times that (only a few percent increase on BOM cost to stay alive), then the valuation math of that original $50m backlog -> $2.5B for future capacity changes.
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AI光互连依赖磷化铟，其原料78%在中国，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
“瓶颈中的瓶颈”：磷化铟(InP) $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 构成双寡头。它们控制了全球 60% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底，是 AI 建设的关键瓶颈。 更令人警觉的是：这依赖于磷化铟(InP)。 磷化铟(InP)是垄断市场。78% 由 $AXTI 和中国控制。 这就是“瓶颈中的瓶颈”： 磷化铟(InP)衬底市场已是日本和中国实体之间的双寡头。然而，上游激光级原料（如住友所需）的生产主要由 $AXTI（再次出现）和中国公司主导。 主要问题在于： AI 行业极度依赖光子学来实现规模化。无论收发器是“基于磷化铟”还是“基于硅”，光源始终是：磷化铟(InP)。 随着 AI 集群从 1 万颗 GPU 扩展到 10 万颗以上，“铜缆瓶颈”迫使全面转向光互连。这使得磷化铟(InP)对 AI 规模化的重要性超过几乎任何其他单一材料。 此外，激光级原料纯度必须至少达到 6N（99.9999%）。即使是微量杂质（硅、硫、锌）也不像 LED 等其他领域那样可接受。大多数研究可能混淆了激光级原料与普通磷化铟产出。 住友是磷化铟衬底市场最著名的名字。他们在高端激光衬底领域占据巨大市场份额。但贸易数据显示，他们越来越依赖来自 $DOWA 和中国公司的外部磷化铟原料。（由于自有回收和储备，他们可能仍被计入原料所有权列表中） 所以，如果认为整个西方 AI 建设因有一家日本公司作为双寡头之一而感到安全，请三思。 瓶颈的源头被 $AXTI 和中国供应商所瓶颈。 如果我们看生产，以下是深度研究估算的控制权分布： Vital Materials - 35%（现货市场） - Vital 在 2020 年收购凡亚金属交易所库存（3600 吨铟），使其掌控全球铟市场。他们利用这一优势成为最大的磷化铟多晶生产商。主导成本领先者；控制原生铟供应（凡亚库存）。 $AXTI - 25%（北京同美晶体技术） - 主要自给自足。其大部分多晶生产被自家晶体生长炉消耗以制造晶圆。但他们也向现货市场销售原材料和化合物，是混合型玩家。 他们是全球唯一从矿山、精炼厂到磷化铟衬底产出的公司，鉴于他们同时拥有原材料和磷化铟衬底控制权，这是一个绝对疯狂的瓶颈。供应自家晶圆生产；关键的非日本来源。 株洲科能新材料 - 18% - 科能实现了“磷化铟多晶量产”并拥有“高度集成的自动多晶生产能力”。他们是中国铟出口配额的关键接收方。纯合成专家；主要出口商。 然后外部： $DOWA - 12% - 西方公司中最大的供应商（是的，日本）。在采矿（秋田锌）方面根基深厚，因此是高纯度金属有机化合物和化合物的领先供应商。 “日本企业”（住友、JX）的“来源” Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - IQE plc 的子公司。对于需要非中国原料的北约联盟供应链来说，这是关键战略资产，尽管他们目前正在进行资产清算。 InPACT（法国）- 3% - InPACT 称他们通过高压合成的水平梯度凝固(HGF)生产多晶锭，以满足（诺基亚、爱立信）和一些欧洲国防部门的要求。 世界其他地区 - 2% 这包括主要衬底制造商（Coherent、住友）、小规模研究生产以及试图打破垄断的韩国或台湾新兴玩家。 现实是，全球 78% 的激光级磷化铟原料产能位于中国。 光组件的需求已经以数倍超过供应/生产。这还是在上量之前。整个 AI 建设被两家公司瓶颈。 但 1/4 的材料来自：$AXTI。而约 1/3 的磷化铟衬底产出再次来自激光级原料。 整个 AI 建设依赖于一家随机的 7 亿美元公司，它既是瓶颈中的瓶颈，也是瓶颈本身。 扩大磷化铟衬底和激光级原料的生产既是国家安全问题。
英文原文
"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide $AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout. What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide. InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China. Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck: The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and Chinese companies. Here's the major issue: The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether, transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide. As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material. On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs. Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves) So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again. The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies. If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls: Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant) - Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks). $AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) - Primarily Captive. Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player. They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source. Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% - Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium. Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter. Then Outside: $DOWA - 12% - The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds. The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX) Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now. InPACT (France) - 3% - InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors. Rest of World - 2% This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting to break the monopoly. The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China. The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies. But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock. The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck. It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。
警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.
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解析微软Maia 300供应链，指出AAOI和MRVL为光模块核心受益者。
个人研究：$MSFT Maia 300 供应链。 根据 $MRVL 的报告，瑞银(UBS)预计2027年前 Maia 出货量将超100万颗。 预计 Maia ASIC 量产将带来超180亿美元流向供应商。 资金流向如下： 1. $MRVL - 营收80-120亿美元（~30-40%利润率），作为主要受益者。他们设计数字底层架构（SerDes，互连），从 SK Hynix 购买 HBM4 内存，支付 TSMC 的 2nm 晶圆和 CoWoS 封装费用，并将成品模块卖给微软。 当 Maia 在2026年底至2027年初开始量产时，鉴于其带来的巨大营收，Marvell 可能会迎来大幅重估。 2. 光网络架构：约30亿至40亿美元 主要受益者：Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI)，Coherent ($COHR)，Innolight Maia 集群需要1:1或更高的光收发器与GPU比例。对于1.6T速度（Maia 300所需），每个节点的光学内容估计超过3,000美元（每个加速器约6个800G/1.6T模块）。 这里 AAOI 大获全胜：与市值700亿美元的 $MRVL 不同，$AAOI 是一家25亿美元的公司。即使只获得这块30亿美元蛋糕的20-30%（6-9亿美元），也将使其当前年化经常性收入(ARR)翻三倍，但具体份额取决于其德州磷化铟(InP)工厂的扩产情况（可能更多或更少）。 因此，Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 和 Marvell 的光学 DSP 业务是隐形赢家，受益于连接这些巨型芯片所需的1.6T升级周期。 像 $TSM 这样的公司会增加30-40亿美元营收，但相对于其1000多亿美元的营收来说，这只是中等体量。（仅说明 TSM 体量之大） 硅基 BOM 拆解： 1. 计算逻辑 (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (设计), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. 内存 (估计 HBM4? (6-8层堆叠), 估计值) SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O 与缓存 Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. 先进封装 - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. 散热方案 - 微流道冷板 / TIM ($200-400) 6. 杂项 (大电流电感, 电容) ($150-$200) 硅基 BOM 总计：$7,860 - $10,550 这非常粗略，未涉及无源器件/基板/盖板 (Ibiden, Unimicron)，测试与组装 (Advantest, Teradyne) 等。 现在如果我们深入看光学 BOM 以及 $MSFT 在空心光纤和 OCS 方面的布局： DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh 引擎 (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) 激光源 (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) 收发器组装: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) 光纤布线: 空心光纤 / MPO ($MSFT) ($200 - $300) 光学 BOM 总计~$2,300 - $3,600~占系统总成本的25% 我们已经确立 $LITE 和 Innolight 是光子学的两大主要玩家（在 $NVDA 和所有超大规模云厂商 ASIC 中） 然而，$AAOI 的市值仅为 $MRVL 和 $LITE 的一小部分，作为小盘股，Maia 的机会对其股票更具变革性。 另需注意，富邦研究(Fubon Research)估计 Maia300 芯片将于2026年底开始生产，约30万至40万颗，2027年增至120万至150万颗，但我们仅采用瑞银的~100万颗数据。（因此实际爬坡可能更多） 但向1.6T的转变以及对空心光纤/OCS网络高功率激光器的特定需求是一个巨大的顺风。如果 AAOI 获得 Maia 光学 BOM 的一部分，他们到2027年仅从一个客户那里就能使 ARR 翻三倍或四倍（不包括 $AMZN）。 风险：主要风险是资格认证失败。如果他们的激光器未能通过微软严格的可靠性测试，他们可能会被 $LITE 一夜之间取代。 然而，Maia 300 的量产标志着超大规模云厂商 ASIC 交易的开始，关键供应商已就位。 从2026-2027年底这一特定 ASIC 中受益最大的公司？ 看起来是 $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM 和 SK Hynix。 警告：这是基于公开材料+深度研究+映射的推测性研究+建模。没有公开的新闻证实这些信息，不要将其视为事实。
英文原文
Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain. On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027. An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp. Here's where it goes: 1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft. We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in. 2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator). Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less). So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips. Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is) For the silicon BOM breakdown: 1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate). SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400) 6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps) ($150-$200) Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550 This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc. Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS: DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300) Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC) However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock. Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about 300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more) But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN). Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight. However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there. The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027? Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix. Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.
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InP成2026新瓶颈，市场重估AAOI与LITE在超大规模云ASIC中的价值。
$AAOI 自今日发布论点以来上涨 24%，$LITE 上涨 5%。 从物料清单(BOM)分析来看，LITE（市值 270 亿美元）因光路交换(OCS)技术而向 TPU Ironwood 倾斜，同时也受益于 NVDA 及所有专用集成电路(ASIC)。 AAOI（市值 25 亿美元）则主要受益于 MSFT MAIA 的量产爬坡和 Amazon Trainium。 磷化铟(InP)就像高带宽内存(HBM)一样，将成为 2026 年的瓶颈，因为它们是这些部署中激光器使用的基础材料。 类似于美光和 SK 海力士的内存瓶颈，市场注意力可能会转向 InP 晶圆厂，例如 $AAOI，它是美国少数几家此类工厂之一（还有 COHR, Macom）。 但相比之下，$LITE 由于 Google TPU 的成功（来自 Meta 和 Anthropic 的采购订单），今年迄今(YTD)已上涨 362%，而 $AAOI 今年迄今仅上涨 7%。 我们主要看到这种情况是因为散户或媒体对 $AMZN Trainium 或 $MSFT Maia 部署缺乏关注，这些部署预计将在 2026-2027 年大规模量产。 然而，由于每个超大规模云服务商都希望降低其自有云平台的推理成本，它们很可能都会成功。 如果我们看到其他超大规模云服务商采用 OCS 以实现 TPU 达到的优化性能，鉴于 $LITE 在该特定领域的垄断地位，预计其估值将比现在进一步提升。 然而，如果我们看到 $MSFT Maia 量产（鉴于 $AAOI 可能正在为他们开发新架构），以及 $AMZN Trainium 量产（40 亿美元权证 + 采购订单），预计 $AAOI 将重新估值。 光电子学和 InP 将成为像内存一样的新瓶颈。 我们可能会看到投资流向下游玩家，如 $COHR、中际旭创(Innolight)、$LITE，以及 2026 年针对特定超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的隐藏杠杆标的如 $AAOI 这一主题。 市场目前正在奖励 Google TPU 供应链，但可能错过了其他超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的量产机会。
英文原文
$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today. From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs. AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium. InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments. Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom) But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD. We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027. However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform. If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment. However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate. Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory. We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026. The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.
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分析LITE与AAOI在AI芯片供应链中的价值及2026年前景
是的，$LITE 的表现令人惊叹，看到它出现在每一款 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 部署中后更是如此。 然后，当你进行物料清单(BOM)分析并建模 TPU/GPU 部署时，它即使在历史高点(ATH)看起来也被低估了。 接着是 $AAOI，它与 LITE 类似，但更侧重于 AMZN | MSFT 的 ASIC。它是美国少数几家磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂之一，其扩张规模将取决于 Trainium 和 Maia 的表现。它的市值也只有 25 亿美元。 光子学/存储领域在 2026 年将会极其疯狂。
英文原文
Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments. Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs. Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too. Photonics/Memory is going to be extremely crazy in 2026.
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$AAOI 是 $MSFT/$AMZN ASIC 扩产的高弹性隐藏宝石，具极高不对称收益。
在 $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创等公司中，我发现 $LITE 的不对称性（asymmetrical setup）最强，因为它是 Ironwood（含共封装光学(CPO)）、Blackwell 及其他超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC) 的核心。然而，$AAOI 是极致的超额收益（alpha）。尤其是作为 $AMZN Trainium 和 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产的对冲工具，以及美国少数磷化铟(InP) 晶圆厂之一。尽管拥有 $40 亿 $AMZN 认股权证和采购协议，12 月的订单似乎确实是基于 Maia 的集群。有传闻称 $AAOI 似乎正在为 $MSFT 的硅片开发新的光互连架构。尽管超大规模客户 ASIC 炒作和光子学反弹，$AAOI 股价毫无动静，因此在 $20 亿市值下绝对是隐藏宝石。但它高度依赖于 $MSFT 和 $AMZN（鉴于其云部门，它们很可能成功并大规模部署自有 ASIC）。
英文原文
Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs. However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US. Although they have $4B $AMZN warrants + purchase agreements, it does seem likely that Dec's orders were Maia-based clusters. There's rumors that $AAOI seems to be developing a new optical interconnect architecture specifically for $MSFT's silicon too. $AAOI hasn't moved at all, despite hyperscaler ASIC hype + photonic rallies, so it's a hidden gem for sure at $2B MC. However, it is highly levered to $MSFT and $AMZN (which will likely succeed + deploy their own ASICs at scale given their own cloud departments)
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分析LITE、COHR光子学双寡头地位及AAOI对微软亚马逊ASIC的杠杆看涨逻辑。
我手里只有 $LITE 和 $AAOI 哈哈。但我对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的看法是，它们在光子学(Photonics)领域基本处于双寡头地位。其中 $LITE 额外受益于 Google TPU 的增长杠杆。然后是 $AAOI，它具有极高的超额收益(Alpha)潜力，且是对 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 超大规模云计算厂商专用集成电路(ASIC)的杠杆式看涨押注。目前尚未有行动，也没有大幅上涨（尽管作为光子学玩家，今年反而下跌了12%），因为市场尚未对 Amazon Trainium 或 Microsoft Maia 产生炒作热度。
英文原文
I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics. With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth. Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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计划研究Maia，已持AAOI作为LITE的杠杆替代。
@itsthesquonky 我今天会对此做一些研究，谢谢提醒。 我已经持有一些微型股，比如 $AAOI，在我看来它只是 $LITE 的杠杆版，仅仅是为了押注 $MSFT Maia 的放量。
英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout. I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp. There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it
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作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
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认为 Nebius 基本面没变，情绪转向且收购叙事增强
像 $NBIS 这样的公司，基本面没有任何变化（除了继续改善）。变化的只是市场情绪突然切换了。 但现在，Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 这样的人突然出来说：“Nebius 可能在 2026 年被 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 这样的 hyperscaler 收购”，这极其利多。
英文原文
Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch. But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.
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长文拆解 SPEED Act 对 Neocloud 和 AI 数据中心的去风险作用
刚刚，SPEED Act 在众议院取得进展。 这是今年 Neocloud 板块（$NBIS、$CRWV、$IREN）最大的单一去风险法案/事件。 下面是原因和梳理： 美国政府正准备以美国对中国的国家安全为理由，支持从 Oracle 到 Nebius 的 AI 数据中心建设。 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 最近跌了 40%+（也把 $NBIS 从 140 美元打到 79 美元、$IREN 从 80 美元打到 35 美元、$CIFR 从 24 美元打到 14 美元），核心恐惧有三点： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预，修复了数据中心建设延迟的空头论点，也解决了利用率滞后带来的盈利问题（利润率）。 #1 数据中心延迟和递延收入 空头 thesis：多年许可延迟（NEPA、输电）把高价值合同变成了递延收入风险。$CRWV 明确把供应商延迟作为下调指引的原因，并在财报后大跌，因为相当一部分收入被推迟到 2026 年 Q1/Q2。 如果 SPEED Act 通过，alpha 在这里： 强制速度和诉讼保护。 - SPEED Act 要求联邦环境和监管审查遵守严格且不可协商的截止日期，通常是 1-2 年。 - 诉讼保护：该法案大幅缩短针对已批准许可提起诉讼的时效，比如缩到 150 天，并指示法院即使许可被临时挑战，也要允许数据中心建设继续推进。 结果：从签约到“GPU 上架 -> 收入流入”的时间线，被压缩了，并由联邦政府在政治上去风险。 递延收入被提前确认，修复了 $CRWV、$APLD 和 Neocloud 板块此前面临的延迟、递延利润/收入问题。 #2 不可持续 CapEx -> 无法从资产变现出 FCF 空头 thesis：公司在 GPU 和建设上花费数十亿美元（$ORCL 的 capex 很巨大），但从购买 GPU 到变现之间的利用率拖累严重影响盈利能力和 FCF。 这也大幅影响 AI Cloud 供应商，因为它们缺乏足够电力来把 GPU/capex 变现。 公司因此面临巨大的减记风险，也就是利用率拖累：GPU 闲置时，折旧和通电成本的时钟仍在跑。 这个拖累对数据中心部门盈利能力影响巨大，The Information 关于 $ORCL AI 利润率极薄的报道也提到过这一点。 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预会直接降低 CapEx 风险，因为速度上的立法要求（修复点 #1）实际上保证电力基础设施会在一个确定且较短的时间线内到位。 这种确定性让 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 可以更有信心安排数十亿美元 GPU 的采购和部署，知道资产到货后就能立即开始变现，同时也通过降低利用率拖累来加快 FCF。 这种结构性变化会流向整个行业。它会立即降低主要 AI Cloud 供应商（$AMZN、$MSFT、$ORCL）的风险，因为它们现在能更确定地保证产能；同时也会保证 Colo/Infra/Energy 提供商（$CIFR、$WULF 等）的需求，因为它们的核心业务就是提供电力容量。 关于 capex -> FCF 以及建设延迟时间线的空头论点，现在已经被 SPEED Act 直接处理。 现在美国政府准备加速 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 这类公司，因为 AI 数据中心已经被放到美国和中国 AI 国家安全竞争的前线。 它能否在众议院通过，是每个投资者都该关注的事。但如果通过，这会是 Neocloud / AI 数据中心建设里最大的、尚未被充分讨论的顺风之一。
英文原文
Just now, the SPEED Act ADVANCES in the House. This is the single biggest de-risking bill/event for the Neocloud sector ( $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN) this year. Here's why and a rundown: The U.S. GOVERNMENT is set to support the AI data center buildout from Oracle down to Nebius on national security grounds for US vs China. Oracle and CoreWeave recently dropped 40%+ (tanking $NBIS $140 -> $79, $IREN $80 -> 35, $CIFR, $24 -> $14 as well) on three core fears: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. The Speed Act and US Government intervention fixes bear-case points for data center buildout delays and addresses utilization lag profitability issues (margins). #1 DC Delays & Deferred Revenue Bear Thesis: Multi-year permitting delays (NEPA, transmission) turned high-value contracts into deferred revenue risk. $CRWV explicitly cited vendor delays for lowering guidance and tanked on earnings shifting a large portion of revenue to from Q1 Q2 2026. The alpha if the Speed Act passes: Mandatory Speed and Litigation Shields. - The Speed Act mandates strict, non-negotiable deadlines (often 1-2 years) for federal environmental and regulatory reviews. - The Litigation Shield: The bill drastically shortens the statute of limitations for filing lawsuits against approved permits (e.g., to 150 days) and instructs courts to allow DC buildout to continue even if a permit is temporarily challenged). The Result: The timeline from contract signing to "GPUs on racks -> revenue flowing" is now compressed and politically de-risked by the Federal Government. Deferred revenue is pulled forward and fixes delays and deferred profitability/revenue that plagued $CRWV, $APLD, and the Neocloud sector. #2: Unsustainable CapEx -> No FCF from monetizing the assets Bear Thesis: Companies were spending billions on GPUs and construction ( $ORCL's capex is massive) with utilization drag (from the point of purchasing the GPUs to monetization) largely affecting profitability and FCF. This also largely affects AI Cloud vendors (lacking power to turn monetize the GPUs/capex). Again This forced companies to take a massive write-down risk due to Utilization Drag (the time the GPU sits idle while the clock runs on depreciation/power-up). This drag is HUGE for profitability on DC segments, as cited in The Information reports on $ORCL's razor-thin AI margins. The SPEED Act and the US Government intervention directly de-risks CapEx as the legislative mandate for speed (Fix #1) effectively guarantees that power infrastructure will arrive within a defined, short timeline. This certainty allows $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN to time the purchase and deployment of billions in GPUs with high confidence that the assets will begin monetizing immediately upon arrival as well as accelerates FCF from reducing utilization drags. This structural change flows down the entire industry. It instantly de-risks the major AI Cloud vendors ($AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL) who can now guarantee their capacity, and it guarantees demand for the Colo/Infra/Energy providers ( $CIFR, $WULF, and others) whose core business is supplying that power capacity. The bear case on capex -> FCF + buildout delay timeline has now directly addressed with the Speed ACT. Now the US government is set accelerate companies like $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN as AI Datacenters is now placed on the forefront of the AI national security battle between the United States and China. Whether it passes legislation in the House is what every investor should be watching, but if does, this is one of the largest (not-talked about) tailwinds for the Neocloud /AI Decenter buildout.
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认为 NBIS 在多项重大合同后仍按困境资产交易
我指的是，$NBIS 宣布 Microsoft 合同时，股价大概在 90-100 美元，之后涨到 140 美元。合同前是 65-75 美元。 现在，在 $MSFT 190 亿美元合同、$META 30 亿美元合同、以色列政府合同、Cursor/Accenture、$UBER Avride robotaxi 上线 + 3.75 亿美元投资轮等等之后，我们又回到了 80 美元。 Nebius 现在交易得像一只困境资产。
英文原文
Meant when $NBIS annnounced the Microsoft contract they were trading around $90-$100 before rallying to $140. Pre contract it was $65-$75. Now we’re back at $80 after $MSFT 19B deal, $META $3B deal, Israel gov deal, Cursor/Accenture, $UBER avride robotaxi launch + $375m investment round, and so on. Nebius is trading like a distressed asset right now
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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仍看多 NBIS，认为 MSFT/META 合同提供中期防御性
我仍然看多。人们似乎忘了，$NBIS 和 $MSFT、$META 的合同覆盖超过半个十年，100% 利用率，总合同规模 220 亿美元。 它们有很强的中期防御性，包括 Cursor 或 $NET 这样的企业用户。 太空中的数据中心目前更像量子一样，是偏近期探索性质，还不是广泛商业化的算力来源。 话虽如此，如果 $NBIS 也拥有一家太空公司子公司，我也不会惊讶，毕竟它们已经有自动驾驶汽车子公司了，哈哈。
英文原文
Still bullish. People seem to forget the $MSFT and $META deals for $NBIS are over half a decade, 100% utilization, and $22 Billion in contract size. They have great medium term defensibility, including all their enterprise users like Cursor or $NET. DCs in space is more near-term exploratory like quantum right now, not exactly widely commercializable and a source for compute yet. That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if $NBIS also owns a space company subsidiary given then already have self-driving car ones lol.
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
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看好AAOI中期潜力，因ASIC生态关键地位及美国制造优势，但暂小仓位以控风险。
是的，我非常非常喜欢 $LITE，但它的高估值溢价已经被市场充分定价。 我仅在 $AAOI 上持有相对较小的仓位，主要是出于执行风险的考虑：万一超大规模云厂商取消采购订单，或者面临捷普(Jabil)的竞争。 话虽如此，它目前被市场当作一家小型组件制造商来定价，但实际上它受益于微软(Microsoft) Maia 和亚马逊(Amazon) Trainium 的 AI 芯片量产，且“美国制造”是其强劲驱动力，因为它在超大规模云厂商的专用集成电路(ASIC)生态系统中扮演着关键角色。 这只是一项基于定性分析的投资，依据诸如 30-35% 的毛利率等粗略估算，以及假设其因 2026 年超大规模云厂商的放量而超越市场预期。 不过，其市值足够小，足以让我将其作为中期投资标的。
英文原文
Yeah I really, really like $LITE but it’s already priced in with a premium. I only have relatively small positions in $AAOI though just because of execution risk in case a hyperscaler drops purchase orders + competition from Jabil. That being said it’s priced as a small cap component manufacturer but has AI $MSFT Maia $AMZN trainium ramp and made in America as a great driver since it plays a critical part in the hyperscaler ASIC ecosystem. This is just a qualitative investment, off rough estimates like 30-35% margins and assumptions of beating projections due to hyperscaler ramp in 2026. The marketcap is small enough to make me an investor for medium term though.
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解析Mag7 ASIC供应链，看好$AAOI因$MSFT散热互连修复及$AMZN订单带来的增长。
不客气！如果我们看Mag7的ASIC，$GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood的供应商在$META交易后曾有一波上涨。 $AMZN Trainium即将像$GOOGL那样开始放量，近期超大规模云厂商$AAOI的订单很可能来自他们。 $AAOI的超额收益逻辑在于：$MSFT Maia 200的订单更多是研发支出，且他们推迟了路线图（可能由于散热和互连问题，例如连接10万颗芯片而不熔化），标准线缆无法用于Maia 200。 但这对$AAOI是利好，因为$MSFT很可能使用他们来解决这一问题，且所有这些ASIC支出将发生在2026-2027年，加上远期收入指引的大幅超预期。 但$AMZN提供了约40亿美元的安全垫以降低风险。
英文原文
NP! If we look at mag7 ASICs, $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood suppliers had a run after the $META deal. $AMZN Trainium is going to ramp up soon like $GOOGL and the recent hyperscaler $AAOI order was likely from them. The alpha for $AAOI is that $MSFT Maia 200 orders were more of R&D spend and they delayed their roadmap (likely due to thermal and interconnect issues eg. 100,000 chips to connect without melting) and standard cabling wasn't working for Maia 200. But this is bullish for $AAOI since $MSFT likely uses them for this fix and all of this ASIC spend will be occur in 2026-2027 + huge beat on forward revenue projections. But $AMZN is providing the nice $4B floor for de-risking.
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分析AAOI依赖Mag7的垂直整合优势，已建仓并看好LITE。
我原本在研究一篇来自 Semianalysis 的文章中关于 $AMZN Trainium 基准测试以及亚马逊供应链的内容。鉴于一些朋友（如 @yianisz）之前曾对此发帖讨论，我决定深入挖掘。亚马逊在扩大 Trainium/Inferentia 集群时提供了约 40 亿美元的支出作为后盾，加上 $MSFT 在 ASIC 集群上的投入，随着行业向 800G 升级，我们很可能会看到更多超大规模云厂商客户。对于一家市值 25 亿美元的公司来说，如此依赖 Mag7 的情况实属罕见 lol。下行风险与积极因素并存：由于激光器在德克萨斯州内置生产，该公司实现了垂直整合（更高利润率）。我看好未来巨大的量增需求，但：关键在于执行，他们必须在不搞砸的情况下建成 800G/1.6T 光收发器。我已经全仓持有 $AAOI，出于风险管理考虑，仓位规模相对较小适中（毕竟它仍是 25 亿市值的小盘股）。我依然更看好 $LITE，但鉴于其本月已上涨 46%，很难进行补仓。
英文原文
I was actually looking into $AMZN Trainium benchmarks from a semianalysis post and at Amazon's supply chain. And some friends like @yianisz post about it earlier, so I decided to look deeper at it. But it has ~$4B spend from $AMZN as a backstop as they ramp up Trainium/Inferentia clusters, spend from $MSFT ASIC clusters, and we'll likely see more hyperscaler clients as the industry moves to 800g ramp. Mag7 dependency is incredibly rare coming from a $2.5B marketcap company lol. Downside + positive: Is vertically integrated (higher-margins), since it's lasers are builtin Texas. I see just incredible volume demand, moving forward but: the whole name of the game is execution since they actually have to build out the 800G/1.6T transceivers without messing up. I'm fully invested already in $AAOI already with relatively small-moderate position sizing for risk management (it's still a small cap with $2.5B MC). I still like $LITE a lot more, but a bit hard to cost average up on that when it's up 46% this month.
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作者认为因拥有直接大客户及更低估值，$AAOI 优于 $POET。
我研究过 $POET，但相比 $AAOI 我更喜欢后者，因为 AAOI 已经拥有 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 等直接超大规模客户(hyperscaler customers)。$POET 旗下的 Celestial 已被 $MRVL 收购，Celestial 使用 Poet 的中介层(interposer)来连接 TPU/Trainium，而 Marvell 将其出售给超大规模客户。但这并不等同于通过直接来自 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的大批量订单以及类似 Amazon 与 $ALAB 的股权投资协议来实现的“几步之遥”的去风险(de-risking)。Amazon 在 $AAOI 中拥有类似 $ALAB 的财务激励，但 Astera 已经是家市值 300 亿美元的公司，而 AAOI 的市值仅为 25 亿美元。
英文原文
I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN. $POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers. But it's not quite the same de-risking few hops away as direct massive volume orders from $AMZN and $MSFT and equity agreements that Amazon has like they did with $ALAB. Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC.
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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对比NBIS与CRWV债务风险，指出市场忽视个体差异盲目联动。
是的，这是个很好的例子。如果你查看 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的可转债发行，由于 $MSFT（Magnificent 7）是它们共同的积压订单，两者的利率都在1-2.5%左右。许多新云厂商受到 OpenAI 的影响，甚至像 $APLD 这样通过 $CRWV（主要租户）间接关联两跳的公司，也不得不以9.25%的利率出售垃圾债券。$NBIS 每年支付约7300万美元利息，而 $CRWV 支付超过13亿美元。但市场似乎因 OpenAI 的传染效应而整体联动该板块，未能区分那些被隔离的个别公司。利息债务、风险和客户锚点的差异是巨大的。
英文原文
Yep that’s a good example. If you look at convertible offerings for $NBIS and $IREN both their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog. A lot of Neoclouds are affected by OpenAi though and even by two hops like $APLD from $CRWV(main tenant), which had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%. $NBIS is paying ~$73m/year from interest, while $CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B. But the market seems to move the whole sector together from OpenAI contagion without discerning individual companies that are isolated. The difference in interest debt, risk, and customer anchors is massive.
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OpenAI 恐慌引发 AI 供应链板块抛售，独立标的现买入机会。
确实如此。其中很大一部分源于对 OpenAI 的担忧。例如，OpenAI 是 $CRWV 的锚定租户之一；$ALPD 出售垃圾债 -> 信贷收紧。随后板块抛售。显然这是多因素的（例如，套息交易平仓引发的更广泛抛售），ATM 增发/可转换票据 + 部分公司进一步稀释 -> 市场风险偏好下降。但再次强调，$ALPD 和 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 挂钩，而后者与 OpenAI 挂钩。$CIFR、$WULF 通过 Fluidstack 作为锚定方与 $GOOGL 挂钩。$NBIS 为 $MSFT 和 $META 进行建设。这是一个极其微妙的板块，但像 OpenAI 引发的全板块抛售/恐慌也为更独立的玩家提供了买入机会。
英文原文
They did. A large part of it was OpenAI fears. eg. OpenAI -> one of $CRWV anchor tenant. $ALPD selling junk bonds -> credit tightening. Sector selloff after. Obviously it's multifacted (eg. broader selloff from carry trade unwind), ATM offerings/convertible notes + more dilution for some -> market risk off. But again, $ALPD + $CORZ are linked to $CRWV which are linked to OpenAI. $CIFR, $WULF -> $GOOGL through Fluidstack as anchor. $NBIS -> Buildout for $MSFT and $META. It's an extremely nuanced sector, but whol sector selloff/fears like OpenAI presents a buying opportunity too for the more isolated players.
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板块错杀提供买入机会，NBIS/IREN无交易对手风险且利用率高。
超额收益(alpha)在于了解哪些类型的合同能让人免受当前恐惧的影响，以及行业内哪些个别组件存在定价错误。$MSFT、$META 等公司的算力容量合同是“照付不议”(take or pay)的。 $NBIS、$IREN 等公司由于与“七巨头”(Mag7)（拥有无限资产负债表）签订5年期合同，实际上消除了**交易对手风险**(counterparty risk)。 然而，它们下跌的原因不同（$NBIS 因2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)发行；$IREN 因市场担忧其为将剩余3GW的AI云容量管道变现而进行稀释，而非用于数据中心托管(colocation)）。 然而，主要的普遍担忧是 $ORCL、$CRWV 面临来自 OpenAI 破产+无力支付的严重交易对手风险，但由于它们是两大主要玩家，这引发了整个板块的算法抛售。 但这种板块抛售为一些未受影响（除信贷收紧外）/被误解的公司提供了良好的买入机会。 此外，AI是一个增长的市场，目前可能存在算力紧张（例如 anthropic、gemini 和其他模型），但 $NBIS、$IREN 在超大规模云服务商合同上的利用率基本为100%。 显然，如果存在过度建设，可能会导致利润率压缩，但我们目前尚未看到这种情况。5年后会发生什么，我不知道。
英文原文
The alpha is knowing what types of contracts lead to isolation from current fears and where there's mispricing on individual components in the sector. Compute capacity contracts are take or pay for $MSFT, $META, and others. Companies like $NBIS, $IREN and others are effectively de-risked due to **no counterparty risk** from Mag7 (infinite balance sheets) and 5 Year contracts. However, their drops were different reasons ( $NBIS, 25M share ATM), $IREN fears over dilution for monetizing their rest of the 3 GW capacity pipeline for AI Cloud instead of colo. However, the main overarching fear was that $ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay, but this causes a sector algorithmic selloff because they're the two largest players. But this sector sell-off is a good buying opportunity for some of the unaffected (minus credit tightening) / misunderstood companies. Also AI is a growing market, and there's likely compute strain for the time being (eg. anthropic, gemini, and other models) but it's basically 100% utilization for hyperscaler contracts on $NBIS, $IREN. Obviously if there's overbuild, there's probably margin compression but we're not seeing that right now. What happens after 5 years I don't know.
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AI数据中心客户资金差异大，市场误判导致板块错配机会。
AI 数据中心(AI DC)领域极其微妙。 $ORCL 正基于租户 OpenAI 的积压订单/信用状况，通过债务建设产能。 OpenAI 目前无力履行其义务，且获得资金的可能性越来越小。 $CIFR 正为 $GOOGL、$AMZN 建设产能。 谷歌/亚马逊拥有资金，且这些合同已锁定。 $NBIS 正为 $META、$MSFT 建设产能。 微软/Meta 拥有资金，且这些产能合同已锁定。 但市场目前将所有积压订单都视为来自 OpenAI（不可持续的建设），因此这是买入该板块个别组件错定价的好机会。
英文原文
The AI DC sector is extremely nuanced. $ORCL is building capacity from debt based on backlog/credit worthiness of OpenAI which is the tenant. OpenAI does not have the funds at the moment to fulfill its obligations and it's looking less likely to get it. $CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN. Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in. $NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT. Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity. But the market is currently treating all the backlog like it comes from OpenAI (unsustainable build) which is why it's a good opportunity to buy into mispricing of individual components of the sector.
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甲骨文因OpenAI信用风险大跌，新云板块错杀，建议买入非OpenAI依赖标的。
甲骨文($ORCL)的财报结果及其对$NBIS和$IREN等“新云(Neocloud)”板块的影响： 甲骨文财报EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后仍下跌12%。 甲骨文自9月11日高点以来已下跌39.8%，并拖累了整个板块。 原因如下： 抛售不仅是对营收轻微不及预期的反应，更是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出(Capex)周期可持续性，以及该板块主要租户OpenAI偿债能力的担忧。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加150亿美元至近500亿美元，这与据报道的与OpenAI的3000亿美元合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI作为前沿大语言模型(LLM)，向甲骨文、Coreweave等承诺了诱人的资本支出，推动了板块的初步重估。 然而，随着超过1万亿美元的债务义务以及来自Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等的竞争加剧，市场严重怀疑甲骨文、Coreweave等是否为一家无法通过经营性现金流履行义务的租户建设基础设施。 市场有效发出了信号：甲骨文正在为无法履行承诺的OpenAI提供不可持续的债务融资“供应商融资(Vendor Financing)”。 因此，下跌是理性的：抛售由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重估驱动。 OpenAI资金担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设，由其收入(130亿美元)与义务(600亿美元/年)之间的巨大错配所支持。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文信用违约互换(CDS)利差的扩大表明“信用事件”降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在“新云”板块中引发了传染效应：$NBIS从140美元跌至90美元区间，$IREN从80美元跌至40美元区间，$CIFR从20多美元跌至17美元区间。 但这对于$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司是否是买入机会？ 是的。 这对$ORCL是否是好的买入机会？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL(大部分)和$CRWV(25%积压订单)是两大主要依赖OpenAI的玩家，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间反转(+30%以上波动)。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值进行超额认购的IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，情况可能改变。 然而，许多其他玩家与OpenAI隔离。新云板块的原始逻辑是Mag7从其现金牛业务(Azure, AWS, GCP)向下漏斗资金至：$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL, $CRWV)下跌，算法交易拖累了整个板块。 如果单独看公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL背书，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是来自超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的非理性抛售，为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不包括与OpenAI绑定的$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN: Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours. Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it. Here's why: The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant: OpenAI. Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI. Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector. However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow. WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises. So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital intensity. OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year). Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default. Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s. But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes. Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No. Forward Outlook: $ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI. If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change. However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others. But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector. If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT. These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI. This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.
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因OpenAI资金风险回避ORCL，看好其他新云厂商回调机会
我一直将 $ORCL 列为回避名单，这次财报导致其下跌11%正是原因所在。 我需要更多时间深入研究，但令人担忧的不仅仅是资本支出(capex)，很大一部分是因为这些支出是为 OpenAI 服务的（而 OpenAI 没有足够的资金来覆盖积压订单）。 其他新云厂商(neoclouds)如 $NBIS 没有这个问题，因为它们的积压订单来自确实有钱的 $MSFT。超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的资本支出漏斗才是新云厂商核心逻辑的核心，而不是像甲骨文那样依赖/受制于 OpenAI。 因此，其他新云厂商随之抛售带来的下跌提供了一个良好的机会。
英文原文
I’ve been putting $ORCL on avoid and this earnings was the reason why on the 11% drop. I need more time to look into it but it’s not just capex spend that’s worrying, a large part of it is because of OpenAi (which doesn’t have the funding for the backlog) that a lot of the spend is for. Other neoclouds like $NBIS don’t have this problem because their backlog is from $MSFT that actually have the money. And hyperscaler capex funnel was the core Neocloud thesis, not levered/contingency on OpenAi which oracle faces. So selloff on other Neoclouds that got brought down with it presents a good opportunity
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看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
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反驳Hedgeye做空逻辑，对比Coreweave指出Nebius财务更健康且业务多元。
做空机构 @Hedgeye 正在做空 Nebius $NBIS。股价现为 $97.8。 他们的观点？Nebius 是 Coreweave 2.0。 Coreweave [ $CRWV ]： - 客户多元化程度低，主要是超大规模云服务商，约四分之一的积压订单来自 OpenAI。 - 剩余现金 18 亿美元。 - 由于 8-10% 利率的有毒融资，每年债务利息超过 13 亿美元。 Nebius 也是如此吗？ Nebius [ $NBIS ]： - 在 Neocloud 市场中拥有最高的客户多元化，包括 $META、$MSFT、政府、$SHOP、Mistral、$NOW 等。 - 剩余现金超过 48 亿美元。 - 票据结构约 40%+ 价外(OTM)，年利率约 2%，每年利息支出约 7660 万美元。 - 拥有对 $UBER 至关重要的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车业务板块（最后一轮融资 $UBER 投入 3.75 亿美元），以对抗 Waymo。 - AI 训练板块由贝索斯资助，并被 $AMZN、Anthropic 等使用。 - 持有子公司 28% 的股份，该子公司被 $TSLA、$NET、Tiktok、$META 等大多数上市公司使用。 - 4 家子公司同比增长 100%，伴随核心运营业务增长，Tripleten/Toloka 每年增加净收入。 这是同一家公司吗。
英文原文
A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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反驳收入无法覆盖折旧论，指出利用率提升带来经营杠杆效应。
“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是错误的，你没有正确陈述单位定价（会下降）与经营杠杆（会规模化）的关系。在“前置投入”阶段，你拥有资产（折旧正在发生），但尚未产生全部收入。随着你为 $MSFT/$META 合同及其他客户启动集群，利用率提高，利润率随之扩张（可变）。因此，“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是谬误，因为收入确实能通过利用率在折旧之上实现规模化增长（折旧是固定的，而收入是可变的）。只需看看 $CRWV 约 74% 的现金利润率，它足以覆盖折旧。（忽略 $CRWV 庞大的利息债务，而 $IREN 和 $NBIS 都没有这种债务）。
英文原文
"Revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is wrong, you're not stating unit pricing (which degrades) vs. operating leverage (which scales) correctly. In the "front loading" phase, you have the assets (depreciation is active) but not the full rev yet. As you turn on clsuters for the $MSFT/ $META contract and others, utilization increases and margins expand (variable). So "revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is false because revenue absolutely scales past depreciation due to utilization. (depreciation is fixed while revenue is variable) Just look at ~74% or so cash margins from $CRWV that cover the depreciation. (ignoring $CRWV's massive interest debt which both $IREN and $NBIS dont have).
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分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险，并点评用户高波动组合。
从我的角度来看： $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力，因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外，他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司，同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值（例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨，但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应）的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会（也许我们只是太早了，不过据我上次检查，机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上，所以有些人可能已经意识到了）。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大，但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易，他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用，且为了加速建设，每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而，这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能，他们选择的是AI云路线，而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务，我会作为投资者极度担忧，因为执行存在不确定性，且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好，因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的，因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书，资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件，且虽然营收增长较慢，但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈（可能回撤50%），但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈，那也没问题。
英文原文
Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.
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解析资本支出会计处理及子公司利润对NBIS和IREN估值的影响。
是的，资本支出(Capex)就是这样进行会计处理的，它会产生固定的折旧，但 Nebius 的营收增长幅度超过了折旧带来的拖累。 此外，子公司+三位数的增长直接计入净利润报表，没有运营支出(Opex)的拖累，而人们通常没有在模型中考虑这一点。 基于你关于杠杆的观点，$IREN 与微软(MSFT)的交易通过预付款实现了更高的杠杆化内部收益率(IRR)，而 $NBIS 的前置投入也意味着大部分现金消耗已结束，从而在 Q4 至 2027 年期间产生经营杠杆。
英文原文
yeah that's how capex gets accounted for, it creates fixed depreciation but nebius rev scales past depreciation drag. Also subsidiaries + triple digit grwoth drop in pure net income into the statement without opex drag, which people don't model for. going off your own points about leverage works with $IREN doing its msft deal with prepayment for higher levered irr, there's also operating leverage with nbis frontloading was majority of cash burn ending -> operating leverage q4 into 2027.
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博主认为七大科技股当前估值具备较高概率优势。
@Scepticus16 就我而言，从当前估值来看，$meta、$amzn、$googl、$nvda、$appl、$msft、$tsla 的概率较大。
英文原文
@Scepticus16 Prob $meta, $amzn, $googl, $nvda, $appl, $msft, $tsla for me in terms of current valuations
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加急费用损害 $IREN 利润，且存在违约风险，并非全为利好。
仅就加急费用这一项而言，考虑到其对 $IREN 利润率的影响百分比，这显然是一个负面因素。如果 $IREN 不支付这笔费用，进而面临 $MSFT 的延迟及合同终止，情况会更糟。这只是客观、不加粉饰的解读方式。若声称所有人都需支付如此高比例的加急费用，那便是谬误。$IREN 有时确实存在利空，并非所有消息都极度看涨。
英文原文
On the expedited element alone, it’s a pretty obvious negative given how much % margins it is for $IREN. And it’s even worse if they don’t pay it and face $MSFT delays + contract termination. That’s just the objective/non-sugarcoated way to frame it. It’s false if you say everyone needs to pay that much % in expedited. Sometimes there’s negatives about $IREN, not everything is overwhelmingly bullish.
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解析$IREN因$MSFT合同升级设施成本，批评盲目乐观者。
如果我错了请纠正我，但就我所见，$IREN 的情况是，在与 $MSFT 签约后，其产品计算标准从普通设施变更为超大规模数据中心级设施。 ~300万美元用于超集群的液冷/母线槽/高密度机架。 ~200万美元来自其他规格（如备用发电机翻倍、冷却回路等）。 +200万美元为加急费用（正如前文所述，任何试图证明这是好事的人，都是在强行自我安慰）。 否则，前两项增加似乎是标准的。其他回复中9/10的内容读起来简直伤脑筋。
英文原文
Correct me if I’m wrong but from what I’ve seen for $IREN it was a change in product calculations from a standard facility to a hyperscaler-grade one after they signed the $MSFT deal. ~3m for liquid cooling/busways/high density racks for supercluster. ~2m from misc specs such as equipment doubling fbackup generator, cooling loops, etc.) +2m expedited as mentioned ( anyone who tries to justify why this is a good thing, is hard coping ) Otherwise the first two additions seem standard. 9/10th of the other replies just cause IQ damage to read.
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对比NBIS与IREN融资稀释影响，指出DC建设需购GPU导致稀释不可避免。
关于 $NBIS，时机确实是个巨大因素，他们在宣布 $70-$90亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）后进行了操作。此外，MSCI 的资金流入也抵消了大部分稀释，下个月可能还会纳入纳斯达克100指数。 对于 $IREN，我目前的观点是：如果他们想通过拥有 GPU 的 AI 云（AI Cloud）变现其巨大的算力容量，就需要进行大量稀释。这不仅仅是“拥有 3GW 容量 x 一定收入”那么简单，当他们不做托管（Colocation）业务时，还需要购买 GPU。 现有股东/市场可能不喜欢这一点。特别是仅针对 $MSFT 的交易，硬件成本就高达约 $58亿（如果我记得没错的话）。虽然他们获得了预付款，但仍需筹集更多资金。 长期来看这是净正面的，但任何当前持有者都会感到痛苦。 即使是 $NBIS 的融资，我也非常不喜欢稀释，希望他们通过运营利润来融资剩余部分，但这是数据中心（DC）建设的现实。Nebius 起初就有更大的现金储备（坐拥 $48亿+），相比 $IREN 他们受到的冲击稍小一些，但让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
With $NBIS yeah timing was a huge factor that they did it after announcing $7-$9B ARR. They also had MSCI inflows to offset a lot of the dilution too and maybe nasdaq100 next month. For $IREN my opinion so far is that if they wanted to monetize their immense of capacity in their AI cloud with GPUs, there needs to be a ton of dilution. It's not just oh we have 3GW capacity x amount of revenue, they need to buy the GPUs too when they're not doing colo. Existing shareholders/markets probably don't like that. Especially with spending ~$5.8B in hardware costs (if i remember correctly) for the $MSFT deal alone. They got pre-payment but they still needed to raise more. Long term it's net positive but anyone holding now would feel a lot of pain. Even for $NBIS raise I really disliked dilution and wanted them to finance the rest through operational profit, but that's the reality of the DC buildout. Nebius already had a bigger cash pile to begin with (was sitting on $4.8B+) compared to $IREN, so they're a tad more isolated but we'll see what happens.
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分析NBIS、IREN和CRWV商业模式优劣及新云厂商时间窗口。
好问题。麦肯锡曾就此话题发文（我觉得写得极差，因为他们以 $CRWV 为主要锚点）。 但其中部分观点成立，并对 $IREN 等公司发出警示。他们的观点： - 当前的裸金属租赁商业模式薄弱且脆弱 - 避免过度依赖少数大客户 - 开辟可防御的利基市场（如主权计算、专用工作负载） - 通过收购整合或成为超大规模云服务商 这些确实正确，但未能捕捉到一些细微差别。 关于 $NBIS： - 极度多元化（这构成了利用率的强大护城河，对利润率计算至关重要） - 全栈式（可防御的利基市场） - 通过收购整合（旨在成为超大规模云服务商，拥有4家同步增长的子公司） 这就是我说它具有最高非对称上行潜力的原因。 关于 $IREN： - 当前的裸金属租赁业务目前是护城河。文章指出长期来看它很脆弱，这是正确的。因此 $IREN 正通过与 $MSFT 合作开展 GPU 基础设施即服务(IaaS) 向上攀登全栈阶梯，并可能尝试构建上层软件层（尽管这很难） - 我们将拭目以待，这需要极高的执行力。 关于 $CRWV - 老实说，我不知道他们如何摆脱债务陷阱 - 他们试图用 $NVDA 作为后盾，但这充其量也很脆弱（例如 OpenAI 拥有 1 万亿美元以上的资本支出，试图争取政府 + 科技七巨头提供资金担保） 新云厂商是一场与时间的赛跑，我同意文章的观点（这就是我说高确信度持有2年，而非5年以上的原因）。 他们拥有从科技七巨头(Mag7)弱势中获取收入的绝佳窗口期 -> 将收入转化 -> 建立长期差异化和护城河。 我不知道最终结果如何，但我们将拭目以待。
英文原文
Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor). But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims: - current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile - avoids overreliance on a few giant customers - carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads) - consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances. So for $NBIS: - Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations) - Full-stack (defensible niche) - consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it) That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch. For $IREN: - current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard) - We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution. For $CRWV - idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh - they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding) Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ). They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats. I don't know what will happen, but we'll see
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AI云股被算法归篮联动，CRWV财务堪忧，NBIS/IREN长期价值或超CRWV。
是的，完全同意。我认为算法/市场目前将 $NBIS、$IREN 归入 $CRWV、$NVDA 的篮子中。因此，任何关于 Coreweave 的负面报道都会对其他公司产生负面影响。我们终于看到 $WULF、$CIFR 等被归入数据中心(colocation)篮子（相对不受 GPU 贬值论点影响），并表现优异。但坦率地说，$CRWV 是一个财务噩梦，只要它被视为新云(neocloud)行业领导者，就会影响其他公司。至于 $NVDA，$GOOGL 的 TPU 论据是我目前看到的针对 $NVDA GPU 云业务最强的看空理由，但这些公司已经从 $META、$MSFT 锁定了 5 年的超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)合约。我认为市场最终会正确定价，我相信 $NBIS 和 $IREN 有一天会比 $CRWV 更有价值，但其中只有一家拥有自动驾驶 Robotaxi lol。
英文原文
Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now. So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform. But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader. As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT. imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol
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博主更正$MSFT数据错误，澄清计算逻辑并建议忽略特定图表。
是的，$MSFT 的交易数据确实有误。这是最后时刻加进去的，但我本应该仔细校对一下。 不幸的是无法编辑 X 帖子，所以我就留在这里说明： - 计算时使用了混合估算值，例如芬兰设施（Mantsala）。你说得对，$MSFT 的交易应该仅按美国本土交易计算。市场费率可能在 200 万美元以上。 - 我根据 X 上的多个 GPU 场景做了拆解，但这只是其中之一。$NBIS 先提升 H200 产能，随后部署 GB300，但这并未展示全貌，所以请忽略该图表。 标准化表格仍然有效，可作为粗略的相对比较。
英文原文
Yep, the $MSFT deal in specific was off. Threw that in last minute but should have proof-read it. Unfortunately can't edit X posts but I'll just leave this here: - Used a blended estimate eg. Finland facility (Mantsala) for caluations. You're correct in saying $MSFT deal should be US-only deal calculations. Market rates would likely be around $2.0M+ - Did a breakdown of multiple GPU scenarios off X but this was just one of them. $NBIS was ramping up with h200 first then deploying gb300's down the road, but doesn't show the full picture so ignore the chart. Normalization table still stands as a rough relative comparison.
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澄清 $MSFT 交易估算差异及图表错误，确认 H100 数据有效。
你在 $MSFT 这笔交易上的看法是对的。我在托管设施(Colocation)方面使用了混合估算值，$NBIS 在其他地点拥有设施，但对于 $MSFT 这笔特定的独立交易，托管费会有所不同。此外，我在进行 GPU 标准化(GPU normalization)的不同对比时，用错了图表。右侧的 H100 标准化数据仍然有效。
英文原文
You're right on the $MSFT deal. I used blended estimates for colocation, $NBIS owns facilities in other location but for specific $MSFT deal standalone, the colocation fee would be different. Also was doing different comparisons for GPU normalization, and used the wrong chart. H100 normalization on the right should still stand.
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澄清NBIS成本估算逻辑及与微软合作路线图
与 $MSFT 的对比有些偏差，但 H100 的标准化处理虽然带有推测性，应该更稳健。 我使用了整个投资组合的混合估算值，例如芬兰设施（Mantsala），那里的数据中心租赁费实际上为 $0（仅包含折旧摊销+运营支出）。当他们从 DataOne 租赁美国设施（新泽西州 Vineland）时，我对其进行了平均处理。 正如其他人指出的那样，仅就 $MSFT 的交易而言，租赁成本可能要高得多，接近每兆瓦 $180万-$220万的市场价格。 $NBIS / $MSFT 的合作不仅限于 H200。GB200/B300 也在路线图之中。我当时正在对比 H200、H200 和其他 GPU，最后顺手加上了这个。可惜帖子发晚了没法编辑。 感谢大家的提问。
英文原文
The $MSFT comparison is off but the h100 normalization, while speculative, should be more robust. I used a blended estimate of entire portfolio eg. Finland facility (Mantsala), where colo rent is effectively $0 (just D&A + OpEx). When they lease the US facility (Vineland, NJ) from DataOne and I averaged it. For the $MSFT deal only, the lease cost is likely much higher closer to market rates of $1.8M-$2.2M per MW as someone else pointed out. $NBIS / $MSFT is not limited to H200. GB200/B300 is on the roadmap too. I was doing comparisons with H200, H200, and other GPUs and threw that in at the end. Too late to edit the post though. Appreciate the questions.
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对比NBIS与IREN的微软交易，指出NBIS收入溢价及IREN利润率被高估。
是的！关于收入溢价的观点确实很有帮助。但我认为细微差别体现在 $MSFT 的交易中（这显示了 $NBIS 和 $IREN 每兆瓦的利润率差异）。 Nebius 的微软交易使其每兆瓦年的收入比 IREN 的微软交易高出约 19-20%。许多毛利率数据因资产负债表会计处理而被夸大，因此我发此帖以标准化利润率。 $IREN 的实际杠杆内部收益率可能更接近 20%，鉴于其与戴尔的数十亿美元支出，使用这一指标可能优于 85% 的项目息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）数据。 $MSFT 基于合理推测（结合靠近 Azure 服务器的地理位置和软件优势）更看重 $NBIS 的完整人工智能云平台。如果 $IREN 在顶层软件和基础设施即服务（IaaS）层面补齐短板，其未来利润率和合同有望缩小这一差距。
英文原文
Yep! Definitely some helpful points about the revenue premium. But I think the nuance did show up in the $MSFT deal (which shows the margin difference between $NBIS and $IREN per MW). Nebius’s MSFT deal gives it ~19–20% higher revenue per MW-year than IREN’s MSFT deal. A lot of the gross margin figures are inflated by balance sheet accounting, hence why I made this post to normalize margins. $IREN 's realized levered irr is probably closer to 20%, it's probably better to use that over the 85% project EBITDA figures since they're spending billions with Dell. $MSFT values $NBIS full AI cloud platform more from an educated guess (mix of location closer to azure servers and software). If $IREN closed the software on top level and iaas level, its future margins/contracts could close that gap.
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AI算力需求指数级增长抵消GPU迭代贬值，NVDA客户优质，非泡沫崩盘。
答案很微妙。 主要看两个因素： 1. GPU 变得更节能。 2. 大语言模型(LLM) 在容量/能效上更高效。 在 LLM 方面，我们看到像 DeepSeek 这类模型在处理不需要高精度的任务（如回答烹饪食谱或知识库查询）时极其高效。 然而……随着计算力的增加，准确率（尤其是复杂研究问题）也在提升。Elon 和 Magnificent Seven 意识到了这一点，所以他们正在扫货市场上的所有 GPU 以创造超级智能。这也是为什么 Anthropic 和 Google 正在建设耗资 400 多亿美元的数据中心，用于运行需要更多算力进行批判性思维（如 Genesis 任务）的更高级 Opus 和 Gemini 模型。 在 GPU 方面，每一代新 GPU（例如 H100 -> B200）在能效和每美元性能上都有显著提升。例如，Blackwell B200 是 Hopper H100 的 30 倍。 如果基于这个假设，那么到 2027/2028 年，市场上将出现大量过时的低效 H100 和 B200，导致二手 GPU 市场崩盘。 但是：这是假设我们没有看到对新 AI 能力的指数级需求（我们很可能会看到，且正在发生）。正因为这种指数级需求，今天旧模型（如 7 年前的 TPU 和 2020 年的 GPU）仍被用于低优先级的推理任务。 $NVDA 的订单已积压数年，人们正在购买 $AMD 的 GPU 和 $GOOGL 的 TPU 来构建任何新增产能。 至于思科类比，思科的客户是互联网泡沫时期无盈利能力的公司。$NVDA 的客户是 $META、$AMZN、$GOOGL、$MSFT，这些是世界上最盈利的公司。所以最坏的情况我们可能看到回调，而不是互联网泡沫式的崩盘。
英文原文
Answer is nuanced. So two factors: 1. GPUs get more power efficient. 2. LLMs get more capacity/power efficient. For the LLMs case, we're seeing that on deepseek type models be extremely efficient on stuff that don't require much accuracy. Basic stuff like responding to questions about cooking recipes, or knowledge-base stuff. However... accuracy increases, especially with complex research questions, scaled with compute. And people like Elon + mag7 realize this, which is why they're just buying up all the GPUs on the market to create superintelligence. And why antrhopic/google is building $40B+ datacenters for more advanced opus and gemini models that require more compute for critical thinking (eg. Genesis Mission) For the GPUs case, every new generation of GPU (e.g., H100 -> B200) offers dramatic improvements in power efficiency and performance per dollar. eg. Blackwell B200 is 30x than the Hopper H100. If we go off that assumption, then there would be a massive useless supply of less-efficient H100s and B200s in 2027/2028 creating a used GPU market crash. HOWEVER: This is if we don't see an exponential demand for new AI capabilities (which we likely will, and what we're seeing now). Because of this exponential demand, TODAY, older models are still used (eg. TPUs from 7 years ago and GPUs from 2020), for lower inference task in lower priority inference tasks. $NVDA is backlogged for years and people are buying GPUs from $AMD /TPUs from $GOOGL to build out any new capacity. As for Cisco analogy, Cisco's customers were .com bubble companies with no profitability. $NVDA's customers are $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT the most profitable companies in the world. So worst case scenario we might see a correction, not a .com bubble crash.
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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看好传统云商，CRWV或成新云代表，板块成员间接受益。
鉴于数据的重要性，概率上更倾向于像 $ORCL 这样的联邦云(FedRamp)提供商以及像 $AMZN、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 这样的传统超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)。 $CRWV 可能是最有可能成为新云(Neocloud)代表的公司，但他们仍处于应用阶段。$NBIS 的可能性不大。 话虽如此，新云板块的其他成员也是间接受益者。
英文原文
Prob just fedramp providers like $ORCL and traditional hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT given how critical the data is. $CRWV is probably the most likely Neocloud but they’re still in application phase. $NBIS is unlikely. That being said, other Neocloud sector members are indirect beneficiaries.
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警惕OpenAI泡沫，看好Mag7资本支出受益的AI基础设施股。
我对“AI泡沫”的主要担忧是OpenAI及其1万亿美元资本支出(capex)的承诺。这显然是一个泡沫（以及大语言模型LLM的私人估值）。其他大多数方面则不然。 任何直接依赖他们的公司，如$ORCL、$CRWV，鉴于AI模型在技术上已超越GPT，可能会陷入困境。所以简单的做法就是远离它们！ 就我个人而言，ChatGPT 5.1的表现糟糕透顶，我实际上取消了订阅，转而使用Gemini/Claude。Claude Opus 4.5在编码任务上优于Codex。Gemini在图像生成上优于ChatGPT。此类例子不胜枚举。 无论如何，AI将长期存在，任何与Mag7相关的（$GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF），（$MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS），以及连接性如$ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7)都极具前景，因为它们是Mag7自由现金流(fcf)增加资本支出的直接受益者。
英文原文
The main fear I have in the "AI Bubble" is OpenAI and their $1T capex promises. That is a clear bubble (and private valuations of LLMs). Most other things, no. Any company directly reliant to them $ORCL, $CRWV might be in trouble given how AI models leapfrogged GPT. So the simple thing to do is stay away! Personally speaking, ChatGPT5.1 is horrendous and I actually cancelled my subscription to go with Gemini/Claude. Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms Codex in coding tasks. Gemini outperforms ChatGPT in image generation. Can go on and on. Regardless, AI is here to stay, and anything Mag7 related ( $GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF ), ( $MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS), connectivity like $ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7) is extremely promising since they're the direct beneficiaries of increasing capex from mag7 fcf
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
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分析超大规模云厂商数据中心模式差异及潜在合作逻辑
我不会像某些特定的 $BMNR 或 $IREN 投资者那样盲目吹捧，认为街上的绿灯就意味着对公司利好。所以我倾向于认为这只是巧合。因为看起来 $AMZN、$GOOGL 倾向于偏好数据中心托管(Colo)模式（因为他们可以插入自己的 TPU、未来的 Trainium 芯片），而 $MSFT、$META（以及 99.9% 使用 $NVDA 且没有现成定制芯片的 AI 公司）则偏好 $NBIS、$IREN 类型的模式。所以 $AMZN 宣布在印第安纳州为其 AWS 数据中心部门投资 150 亿美元。但关键要注意的是，他们此前在那里已经花费了 313 亿美元，所以这并不算全新投入。你可能看到了 $NBIS 正在印第安纳波利斯附近建设 1000 多英亩的绿地数据中心。这只是一个有利于建设的区域，可能并非针对合作伙伴关系或像 Anthropic（最近承诺 400 亿美元资本支出）那样的另一笔超大规模云厂商交易。说实话，我现在可能更相信 Anthropic 的资本支出承诺而不是 OpenAI。话虽如此，也许如果 $AMZN 耗尽容量并达到与 $NVDA 的最大采购订单上限（因为他们正在插入自己的 $CIFR 芯片），他们可能会转而使用 Nebius。
英文原文
I'm not going to be a blind shill like some specific $BMNR or $IREN investors that can say a green light on the street means bullish for the company. So I would lean coincidental. Since it looks like $AMZN, $GOOGL tends to favor colo models (since they can plug in their own TPUs, Trainium chips in the future) while $MSFT, $META (and 99.9% of AI companies that use $NVDA and don't have custom chips readily built out) prefer $NBIS, $IREN type models. So $AMZN announced they're investing $15B in Indiana for their AWS DC segment. But key thing to note is they've already spent $31.3B there before so it's not exactly new. You probably saw how $NBIS is doing a 1000+ acre greenfield DC near Indianapolis. It's just a favorable area for buildout, probably not directed at a partnership and another hyperscaler deal like Antrhopic (who committed $40B in capex spend recently). I'd probably trust Antrophic more than OpenAI right now with capex spend lol. That being said, maybe if $AMZN runs out of capacity and hits max purchase order with $NVDA (since they're plugging in their own chips with $CIFR), they would use Nebius instead.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.
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对比WULF与IREN订单规模，批评无解释发帖。
@AustranSkolSwft 哪一个才具有侮辱性？是来自 $GOOGL/Anthropic 拥有数百亿积压订单的 $WULF，还是拥有来自 $MSFT 超90亿美元订单的 $IREN。发布这样的内容却不加任何解释，并没有太大帮助。
英文原文
@AustranSkolSwft Which one is insulting? $WULF with tens of billions of backlog from $GOOGL/Anthropic or $IREN with $9B+ from $MSFT. Posting that with no explanation is not very helpful.
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对比IREN与NBIS短期容量优势及长期利润率，并提及GLXY会计处理。
简单定性回复：$IREN 确实前置了连接容量(Connected Capacity)，若从该角度（例如 2026 年上半年 1+ GW）对比 $NBIS 2026 年下半年的 1 GW，$IREN 胜出，且应利用这段时间签署更多合同。长期来看，Nebius 在两者间实现容量持平，且凭借全栈(Full-Stack)而非纯 IaaS 拥有更高利润率，这在 $MSFT 合同的每兆瓦营收中已有所体现。我记得曾对电力成本与利润率做过定量拆解，发现在 Oracle TI 事件中，利用率/编排(Utilization/Orchestration)比廉价电力更重要。关于 $NBIS 的趣闻：他们在 NJ 300 MW 设施的新绿地(Greenfield)站点与 Dataone 合作采用新的表后(Behind the Meter)方案，但短期可能落后于 $IREN。我不是能源专家，所以不个人预测天然气管道改造估算，仅采用管理层对连接/签约容量的预测。关于 $GLXY，同意加密货币会计处理的观点。这在加权时并非考量因素。
英文原文
So just a quick qualitative reply, $IREN does frontload connected capacity and if you go from that standpoint (eg. 1+ GW H1 2026) vs. 1 GW from $NBIS H2 2026, $IREN wins and should be using that time to sign more contracts. Longer term, Nebius achieves capacity parity between the two and has higher margins from full-stack vs. pure iaas and you saw this from the revenue per mw from the $MSFT contract. I remember doing a quantitative breakdown on power costs with margins and found that utilization/orchestration mattered vs. cheap power during that Oracle TI fiasco. Fun fact about $NBIS, they have new behind the meter approaches with dataone on their greenfield sites with power generation on their 300 MW facility in NJ., but probably lags near term to $IREN. I'm not an energy expert so I won't personally go into projections regarding natural gas pipelines conversion estimates, so just going with connected/contracted capacity projections from management. For $GLXY agreed about the crypto accounting. That wasn't a factor when doing weighting.
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分析NBIS融资优势及高利润率，认为其抗风险能力强于同行。
当然，我从产能融资的角度将 $NBIS 列为 S 级，因为它不受影响其他数据中心（DC）股票（如被迫发行垃圾债的 $APLD）的信贷紧缩影响。 从第三季度财报来看，$CRWV 面临 12.1 亿至 12.5 亿美元的利息支出，而现金等价物仅为 19.4 亿美元。 其他新云（neocloud）板块股票需要更多现金来资助建设并实现吉瓦（GW）产能变现，例如 $IREN，且将面临更高的利率或缺乏融资兴趣（如可转换债券）。 这大概就是板块抛售的原因，但部分抛售相对不合理（例如 $NBIS、$CIFR）。 对于 $NBIS，你可能关注的是其 25 亿美元的自动取款机（ATM）增发。凭借现有的 48 亿美元以上现金，他们足以支持全栈建设和产能变现，并可根据与 $META、$MSFT 的可见收入合同扩展未来产能。 但我个人对其 ATM 增发并不满意，因为这会增加成本影响股价，并抵消 11 月 24 日纳入 MSCI 指数带来的资金流入。 但 $NBIS 拥有 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入（ARR），拥有行业最高利润率，鉴于其 200 亿美元市值，这足以抵消 10% 的稀释和可转换债券的影响。
英文原文
Sure, I put $NBIS as S tier from that capacity funding angle because it's isolated from credit tightening affecting other DC stocks like $APLD (that had to sell junk bonds). From Q3 earnings, $CRWV is facing $1.21-$1.25B in interest expenses and only has $1.94 billion in cash equivalents. Other neocloud sector stocks will need more to cash fund buildout + monetize GW capacity ike $IREN, and will face higher interest rates or lack of funding interest (eg. convertibles). This is kind of why we're seeing a sector selloff, but some were relatively undeserved (eg. $NBIS, $CIFR). With $NBIS you're probably looking at their $2.5B ATM offering. With their existing $4.8B+ in cash, they have enough for their full-stack buildout and capacity monetization + and can scale future capacity from visible revenue contracts with $META, $MSFT. But I'm personally not happy with their ATM, since it's an overhead affecting stock price + balances out inflows from MSCI inclusion in 2 days Nov 24th. But $NBIS with $7-9B ARR has the highest margins in the industry, which would offset 10% dilution and convertibles given their $20B marketcap.
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Coreweave因高债务和OpenAI依赖被评F级，NBIS更优。
如果你花30秒读一下帖子，就会发现我并没有给 $BITF 评级。 关于 $CRWV，短期有上涨空间，因为抛售至60美元区间确实过度了。但中长期的债务利息负担过重。 相比之下，$NBIS 和 $IREN 通过可转换债券融资或低利息，每季度对利润率的侵蚀很小；而 Coreweave 每年支付的债务利息超过12亿美元。 此外，OpenAI 占其总积压订单的三分之一。虽然他们拥有一些有防御性的大型超大规模客户（$META, $MSFT）以及 $NVDA 的背书，但像 $ORCL 那样为 OpenAI 建设基础设施，鉴于其缺乏收入以及 Gemini ($GOOGL) 的竞争，存在相当大的风险。 因此，尽管 Coreweave 是备受好评的全栈式服务供应商，但由于荒谬的债务利息侵蚀利润率，加上积压订单高度集中于 OpenAI（合同不确定性），其评级为 F 级，而这并不影响像 $NBIS 这样多元化的全栈式服务供应商。
英文原文
If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF. With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest. While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest. OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition. So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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分析AI基础设施供应商来自微软、Meta及企业客户的强劲收入与增长潜力。
$194亿 $MSFT 5年，$38.8亿/年 / 4 = $9.7亿。 $30亿 $META 5年，$6亿/年 / 4 = $1.5亿 这仅仅是两个超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同。他们的核心业务是企业客户，如 Shopify、Cursor、埃森哲(Accenture)以及政府等。（例如今年年化经常性收入(ARR)为$11亿，增长非常迅速）。 仅来自 Meta/MSFT 的季度收入为$11.2亿，来自企业客户的约$10亿/季度，再加上更多带有互联网关(GW)容量的合同。
英文原文
$19.4B $MSFT 5 years $3.88B/year / 4 = $970m. $3B $META 5 years, $600M/year /4 = $150m That's just two hyperscaler contracts. Their core business are enterprises like Shopify, Cursor, Accenture + Governments and so on. (eg. $1.1B ARR this year, growing very rapidly). $1.12B/quarter from just Meta/MSFT alone, ~1B/quarter from enterprise clients + more contracts with connected GW capacity.
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个股基本面优于宏观，NBIS强劲基本面使回调成买入良机。
因为个股基本面比宏观更重要。 $ETH、$SOL 等加密市场是另一回事，存在连锁的50倍杠杆保证金清算，但股票有自由现金流(FCF)/盈利支撑市值。 以 $NBIS 为例，当预期年度经常性收入(ARR)从20亿美元增至80亿美元，拥有来自 $META 和 $MSFT 的220亿美元+合同积压，且EBIT利润率达20-30%时，25个基点的降息并不会导致股价下跌30%。 如果盈利开始不及预期+预期收入/利润率开始下降，那么人们开始抛售是合理的。然而，当我们看到全面增长时，抛售就成了买入机会。
英文原文
Because individual stock fundamentals matter more than macro. $ETH, $SOL crypto markets are a whole different beast with cascading 50x leverage margin liquidations, but with stocks you have FCF/earnings backing up the market cap. With $NBIS for example, when you go from projected $2B ARR to $8B ARR, 20-30% EBIT margins backed by a $22B+ contract backlog from $META and $MSFT, 25BPS rate cut doesn't affect the stock price by -30%. If earnings started to miss + projected revenue/margins started to decrease, then people would be warranted to start selling. However, when we're seeing increasing growth across the board, the sell-off becomes a buying opportunity.
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IREN若做好基础设施编排具高上行，但GPU全栈执行风险剧增。
如果 $IREN 能在基础设施层面做好编排(Orchestration)，其上行空间极大；$1000亿+市值（$400股价）略显激进但有可能。垂直整合、高互联GW容量以及与 $MSFT 等超大规模云厂商的合作，使 $IREN 在 $49 时具备买入价值。然而，随着决定购买GPU，微软交易带来的执行风险已大幅上升。管理包括系统集成、软件、驱动和网络在内的完整GPU栈（$ORCL 未能做好的部分）远超传统托管(Colo)范畴。
英文原文
$IREN has extremely high upside if they get orchestration right on the infrastructure level and a $100B+ marketcap ($400) is a tad-overly ambitious but possible. Vertically integrated, high connected GW capacity, and hyperscaler deals like $MSFT make $IREN a buy at $49. However, execution risk is a much, much higher now with the Microsoft deal, now that they decided to buy GPUs. Managing the full GPU stack, including system integration, software, drivers, and networking (that $ORCL failed to do well) goes far beyond colo.
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TSM盈利是AI核心指标，超大规模云厂商建设不受NVDA财报影响。
我的观点是，$TSM 的未来盈利（forward earnings）是迄今为止人工智能交易（AI trade）最大的指标，因为它涵盖了从 $GOOGL TPU 生产到 $AMZN，以及 $NVDA、$AMD 等所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers），且我们已看到其盈利和利润率大幅超出预期。 即使 $NVDA 的未来营收被大幅下调（我对此表示怀疑），也不会使 $MSFT 到 $IREN、$AMZN 到 $CIFR 等公司已签订的多年度算力（compute）积压订单失效。 我们已看到 Anthropic 与 $MSFT Azure 的算力协议（这将惠及 $NBIS、$IREN 和 $CRWV 等），$GOOGL 近日建设超 400 亿美元的数据中心（此前已与 $WULF、$CIFR/FluidStack 签署托管设施（colo）协议），$NVDA 的财报不会改变超大规模云服务商的建设步伐。 但它确实对整个 AI 交易产生重大影响，并直接影响 $NVDA GPU 板块（例如重度依赖 $NVDA 的 AI 云厂商）。
英文原文
My opinion is that $TSM forward earnings was the biggest indicator of the AI trade so far since they span from all hyperscalers such as $GOOGL TPU prod to $AMZN, as well as $NVDA, $AMD, and we've already seen them blow away earnings + margins. Even if $NVDA forward revenue is quoted heavily downward (which I doubt), it won't invalidate multi-year contracted compute backlog from $MSFT to companies like $IREN or $AMZN to $CIFR made already. We're already seeing Anthropic x $MSFT compute deals with Azure today (which flows down to $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV others), $GOOGL build out a $40B+ datacenter the other day (they've made colo deals with $WULF, $CIFR / fluidstack previously), and $NVDA earnings won't the change the hyperscaler buildout. But it does have a large impact on the overall AI trade as well + directly affect $NVDA GPU parts of the sector (eg. $NVDA heavy AI clouds).
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成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
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澄清全栈基础设施定义，辨析IREN与NBIS等技术层级差异。
我觉得你可能把自己搞糊涂了，我只是想澄清一下术语。你在第一条评论中说 $ORCL 不是全栈(full stack)，因为他们做了数据中心租赁(DC leasing)，而 $IREN 是全栈。 现在你从 $ORCL 转移话题，开始谈论 $IREN。 我们只是在争论“全栈”服务提供的语义定义。如果你想论证 $IREN 不是全栈，而是做垂直整合的基础设施，那部分也是成立的。 我提到的 $IREN + 软件编排，是指调度、监控分配、故障恢复、集群配置(cluster prov)、容器运行时(container runtime)等，这些是为 $MSFT 提供算力所需的 GPU 编排。 集群编排 + 配置层 + 购买 GPU 而不仅仅是托管机房(colo)，我认为这就是你提到的全栈基础设施。 如果你想再深入一步，$NBIS $CRWV 做的是模型 API、推理运行时（平台/运行时层），比如 $NBIS 的代币工厂(token factory)，这是更深层次的全栈服务，所以 $IREN 确实不算全栈。 这只是在争论全栈之上叠加更多软件的语义问题。如果你接受这个论点，那么对于 $IREN 来说确实如此，且因公司而异。
英文原文
I think you might be confusing yourself and I'm just trying to clarify the terms. You were saying $ORCL is not full stack because they did DC leasing and $IREN is full stack in your first comment. Now you're shifting from $ORCL and talking about $IREN. And we're just going into semantic definition on full-stack offerings and if you wanted to argue $IREN is not full stack but does vertically integrated infrastructure, then that's partially valid too. With $IREN + software orchestration I was referring to scheduling, monitoring allocation, fault recoveriy, cluster prov, container rutime, etc for GPU orchestation needed to deliver compute to $MSFT. Cluster orchestration +provisioning layer + buying GPUs rather than just colo I'd argue is full-stack infrastructure as you mentioned. If you wanted to go one-step deeper that $NBIS $CRWV does it's model APis, inference runetimes, (platform/runtime layer) like $NBIS token factory which is a deeper full-stack offering, so $IREN is not full-stack sure. This is just arguing semantics of more software on top of full-stack and if you go with that argument, sure with $IREN and it differs company-to-company.
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澄清AI算力租赁中软件编排对利润率及自由现金流的关键作用。
将全栈定义为GPU之上的软件层是正确的，因此$ORCL符合这一标准。你之前混淆了垂直整合和全栈服务，这是两个截然不同的概念。 这是一个非常细微的差别，在讨论$NBIS和$CRWV时，你混淆了“纯GPU租赁”与包含编排能力的收入/利润率。 让我再次澄清： 对于$NBIS和$CRWV，人们说其收入来自纯GPU租赁是一种过度简化。以$NBIS为例，它包含一个优化GPU利用率和整体效率的管理软件栈，这就是为什么他们相比$IREN在与$MSFT的交易中获得了更好的价格/兆瓦(MW)优势。这不仅仅是任何人都能做的纯GPU租赁。 再次强调，$CRWV表示软件是其护城河，正是软件将$NBIS和$CRWV的利润率与$ORCL等市场其余部分区分开来（后者毛利率极低，例如14%）。 你可以通过购买GPU并出租来获得极高的营收数字，但如果不能转化为自由现金流(FCF)和利润，那就毫无意义。而这正是通过增加内部运营支出(opex)进行软件编排发挥作用的地方。
英文原文
That's a correct with full-stack as software as a layer on top of GPUs, so $ORCL would fit that mark. Earlier you were conflating vertically integrated and full-stack offering, which are two distinct terms. This is a very nuanced, with $NBIS, $CRWV you're confusing you're confusing "straight GPU leases" and revenue/margins + orchestration. Let me clarify again: For $NBIS, $CRWV, it's a oversimplification when people say it comes from straight GPU leases. When you use $NBIS for example, it includes a managed sfotware stack that optimizes GPU utilization and overall efficiency, which is why they got a better deal/MW compared to $IREN with $MSFT. It's not just straight GPU leases that anyone can do. Again $CRWV said software was their moat, it's what differentiates margins between $NBIS | $CRWV, and the rest of the market like $ORCL (which had incredibly low gross margins, eg. 14%). You can have the extremely high revenue numbers just by buying GPUs and leasing them out, but if it doesn't convert to FCF, profit, it doesn't mean anything. And that's where increasing internal opex with software orchestration comes in.
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澄清AI云全栈与裸金属区别，指出$IREN因执行风险派发股息。
我觉得你有点混淆了这些术语，让我澄清一下。 全栈服务(Full stack offering) = AI云 $NBIS $IREN $CRWV 裸金属(Bare Metal) = $CIFR, $WULF 类型的服务（AWS将自家GPU接入 $CIFR） $IREN 在决定为 $MSFT 交易购买数十亿美元GPU时，转向提供全栈AI云服务。这导致了因执行风险而产生的特别股息(DG)。 $IREN 在财报电话会上明确表示，他们之所以做全栈（包括GPU采购+软件编排），是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”。 关于你提到的软件编排，它主要用于改善内部运营支出(opex)和利润率，但在面向客户的差异化方面略有优势。 与电力相比，GPU利用率和编排对最终利润率的影响巨大，我在之前的帖子中做过定量分析。 对于为 $NBIS 等支付裸金属服务的客户，他们购买的不仅是原始硬件，而是经过优化的软硬件堆栈。
英文原文
So think you're confusing the terms a bit, let me clarify. Full stack offering = AI Cloud $NBIS $IREN $CRWV Bare Metal = $CIFR, $WULF type offerings (AWS plugs in their own GPUs into $CIFR) $IREN is pivoted to doing a full stack offering AI cloud when they decided to buy billions in GPU for the $MSFT deal. This is what led to the DG due to execution risk. $IREN on their earnings call said it themselves that they did full-stack (including GPU purchases + software orchestration) due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns" For software orchestration that you mentioned, it's mainly for improving internal opex and margins, but is a slight advantage for customer facing differentiators. GPU utilization and orchestration plays an incredible difference in terms of final margins, when comparing to power and I did a quantitative breakdown in an earlier post. For customers that pay for bare metal for $NBIS and others, they are paying for an optimized hardware and software stack, not just raw hardware.
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高贝塔资产遭抛售属市场重置，基本面改善应耐心持有。
从 $RKLB、$HOOD、$BTC（现89k）、$HIMS 等所有高贝塔/“风险”/成长型资产都在被无情抛售。尽管基本面全面改善，但这源于连环保证金清算和投降式抛售（基于部分合理的担忧）后的良好重置。以 $IREN 为例，散户仅因 Robinhood 数据就在股价创新低时抛售。但散户通常是在 $MSFT 交易后 $80 高点买入，而在崩盘后 $45 低位最后卖出。此时只需关注新周期、降息、期权到期，并耐心等待，因为基本面正在全面改善。如果盈利和远期收入放缓，我会大幅减仓（但事实并非如此，我们看到的是创纪录的增长）。
英文原文
Every high beta/“risk”/growth asset from $RKLB, $HOOD, $BTC (89k now), $HIMS is being obliterated. It’s a great reset from cascading margin liquidations and capitulation (based on semi-valid concerns) despite seeing improving fundamentals across the board. $IREN retail is selling off for example just based on Robinhood data even while stock is at new lows. But retail is typically the one to buy at the highest point $80 post $MSFT deal and and last to sell eg. $45 post crash. At this point it’s just new cycles, rate cut, option expirations, and waiting since fundamentals are improving across the board. If earnings were slowing and forward revenue was slowing, I would be selling well (but it’s not, we’re seeing record growth)
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澄清 $NBIS 收入预测，强调其受超大规模云厂商驱动的惊人增长。
这里没人说过 $NBIS 在 2026 年会有 80 亿美元的实际收入(Realized Revenue)。不太明白你想表达或争论什么。 自财报发布以来，我一直坚持 80 亿美元的中位年化经常性收入(ARR) 观点，预计实际收入约为 36 亿至 42 亿美元，第四季度季度收入约为 21 亿美元。 $NBIS 正从 1.46 亿美元的季度收入增长至 21 亿美元，耗时略超 1 年，这种令人瞠目的增长仅在本十年因 $MSFT 和 $META 等超大规模云服务商(AI Hyperscalers) 的 AI 收入漏斗而实现。 这是十年一遇的机会，但你做的这种区分没有必要，因为我还没在评论区看到有人产生这种混淆。
英文原文
Nobody said here $NBIS would do $8B realized revenue in 2026. Not quite sure what you're trying to say or argue. I've been consistent on $8B midpoint ARR after earnings with likely ~$3.6B-4.2B realized revenue and ~$2.1B quarterly revenue Q4. $NBIS is ramping up from $146M quarterly revenue -> $2.1B in slightly over 1Y time, which is just mind-numbing growth and only achievable in this decade because of $MSFT $META hyperscaler revenue funnel from AI. Once in a decade opportunity, but the distinction you're making isn't necessary since I haven't seen anyone make that confusion in the comments yet.
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对比CIFR与NBIS，认为CIFR风险更低但上行空间有限。
$CIFR 实际上是我下一个最看好的新云(Neocloud)板块标的。 我之前做过一个梯队排名，$NBIS 是 S+ 级，$CIFR 是 S 级。 但这里有个细微差别，很多人可能不知道： Nebius 捕获了 AI 云业务的整个价值链。$IREN 在其财报电话会议中明确表示，他们之所以选择与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”，同时承担了编排、软件、折旧以及 GPU 采购，而非仅做数据中心(Colo)。 正如你所说，$CIFR 因为 AWS、$GOOGL 以及 Secure 而降低了风险，这也是我喜欢这个标的的原因。通过做数据中心(Colo)，他们避免了购买和管理 GPU 集群，这也是我下调 $IREN 评级的原因，因为 $IREN 面临一个新的风险因素，而 $NBIS 没有，且此前也不存在。 超大规模客户在空间、电力和冷却方面的高利润率、类年金收入。它是该板块中风险调整后风险最低的股票之一。 然而，其上行空间远不如其他标的。特别是当你看到租赁（例如 10-15 年）时，收入爬坡要慢得多，上行空间也远小于像 $NBIS 这样的全栈纯新云标的。
英文原文
$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick. I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S. But here's the difference and nuance people might not know: Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo. $CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before. There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector. However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.
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Nebius是纯新云AI基建标的，无债务与执行风险，具极高非对称上行潜力。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 现价 $86.69，是剩余最纯粹的“新云”(Neocloud) 和 AI 基础设施非对称性机会。 这是收入最高的、未受 $CIFR | $WULF 及数据中心(Colo) 提供商影响的 Neocloud 标的，且没有以下问题： - 不像 $IREN、$ORCL 那样面临全栈执行带来的巨大不确定性。 - 不像 $CRWV、$APLD 等那样背负高额利息债务。 - 不像 $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 等那样在超大规模超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler) 合同上存在收入不确定性。 在 AI 板块因恐惧情绪蔓延而普遍下跌后： Nebius 依然推进：明年年化经常性收入(ARR) 中值为 $80 亿，现金超 $47 亿，企业客户多元化（包括 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府机构），高增长投资组合公司，以及经过验证的高利润率全栈业务。 鉴于需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率）以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离： 在非对称上行潜力方面，没有任何标的能接近 Nebius。 你只需等待公司的执行落地。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no: - Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution. - High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face. - Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack. After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear: Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business. With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening: Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside. You are simply just waiting for company execution.
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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高贝塔AI股因宏观恐慌错杀，基本面强劲者终将迎来价值回归。
我们正目睹高贝塔值AI股票板块的崩盘，部分个股在1个月内下跌30-45%+，今日再跌10%+。 这包括直接受益于“七巨头”资本支出的公司： - Nebius ($NBIS)：$META 30亿美元交易 / 80亿美元远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR)。 - TeraWulf ($WULF)：Anthropic数据中心(<500亿美元) + 与$GOOGL的合资光纤网络(FS)。 - Iren ($IREN)：$MSFT 90亿美元高性能计算(HPC)。 - Cipher ($CIFR)：与$AMZN签署15年55亿美元合同。 这些公司在过去一个月里改善了基本面。 但市场仍在恐慌性抛售从$CRDO (-10.33% 1D)到$CIFR (-7.28% 1D)的股票，尽管它们拥有创纪录的远期收入增长。 这主要是由宏观担忧（政府停摆、12月降息、公司债利差等）和虚假（但微妙）的机构观点（如Burry关于GPU折旧的说法）驱动的，而非基于个股基本面。 这清洗了AI投机性板块（如能源股$OKLO，1个月跌37%）中的泡沫，但高利润率的增长型股票也受牵连。 我之前说过，这让我想起$HOOD从$65跌至$28后反弹至$150，或$ALAB在所有财报超预期后从$100跌至$50再反弹至$245。 当市场充满恐惧，尤其是像现在这样的“AI泡沫”恐慌时，股价有时会与基本面脱节。 但当远期增长能支撑市值预期时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today. This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex : - Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR. - TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL - Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC - Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN. that improved their fundamentals in this past month alone. But markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth. This is driven over fears from macro (shutdown, Dec rate cut, corporate bond spreads, etc) and false (but nuanced) institutional claims eg. Burry on GPU depreciation, rather than individual fundamentals. This wipes away froth from the speculative parts of the AI sector such as $OKLO (energy, -37% 1M), but higher-margin growth names get caught together with it. I've said this before, but this reminds me of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a rally to $150. Or when $ALAB sold off from $100 to $50 off all earnings beats, then rallied to $245. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets, especially with “AI bubble” fears like what's happening now. But when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
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基于Nebius最新财报数据，机械重算其估值模型，得出355美元新目标价。
Northland 早在9月就基于2026财年20-40亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)的假设，给出了$NBIS 205美元的目标价。 沿用其相同的经济模型，我们现在得出的1年目标价为： 约355.00美元/股（+248.04%） 这是基于Nebius财报中70-90亿美元ARR预测得出的。 以下是更新后的指标： Northland Capital Markets 2025年9月24日的报告，其2026财年情景假设： ARR：上调至20-40亿美元 营收：23亿美元 调整后EBITDA：9.07亿美元 核心AIaaS业务的EV/销售倍数：23.8倍 流通股：约2.9亿股 每股股权价值：205美元目标价 Nebius新基本面（2025年Q3发布）： 2026财年ARR ≈ 80亿美元（中位数），营收 ≈ 46亿美元，以及按比例缩放的EBITDA（约18亿美元）。 保持其EV/销售倍数 ≈ 23.8倍，新核心企业价值 ≈ 46亿美元 × 23.8 = 1090亿美元。加上子公司（Northland分部估值法合计约70亿美元）和净现金（约7亿美元）-> 总股权 ≈ 1170亿美元 → 约355美元目标价 这是一种机械外推，假设其分析中的估值倍数不变，并非分析师可能因稀释/执行风险等而调整的目标价。 分析师从20亿美元估计到管理层最新指引中位数80亿美元的2-3倍ARR增长，机械性地推高了估值 更新后的目标价是基于重新运行的DCF模型得出的。
英文原文
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics: Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed: ARR: raised from $2-4B Revenue: $2.3B Adjusted EBITDA: $907M EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business. Shares outstanding: ~290 M Equity value per share: $205PT New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release): CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B). Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc. 2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.
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NBIS获微软Meta验证，需求巨大或超预期
@Dylanwith86 是的，这仅仅意味着当他们签订更多合同时，他们将增加年度经常性收入(ARR)，甚至可能超出其 $70-90 亿 ARR 的预测。两个月前，仅靠 $MSFT 就达到了约 $50 亿。市场对 $NBIS 全栈基础设施的需求巨大，$MSFT 和 $META 已经证明了这一点。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT. Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.
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NBIS财报超预期，获META大单，强烈买入。
目前对 $NBIS 财报的总结： 绝对的。爆表。财报。 在两个月前刚与 $MSFT 达成 170 亿美元交易的基础上，又新增了 30 亿美元的 $META 大单，以及 Cursor 的新企业客户。 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR) 预测规模巨大，远超任何预期。 强烈买入，目标价 116 美元（包含定向增发 (ATM) 的影响）。https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
英文原文
Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far: Absolute. Blowout. Earnings. $3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago. $7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation. Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
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Nebius核心业务被低估，现有业务按计划推进即利好。
很多人仍不理解 $NBIS 的未来营收，Nebius 量化并确认像 $WULF 这样的财务数据，而 FinX 正基于其现有核心业务进行投机，这本身就足以成为下一次财报的催化剂。鉴于 $NBIS 已从高点下跌约 20%，且市场低估了其基于现有净资产/资产的核心业务价值。如果宣布像 $CIFR 那样的大合同我会感到惊讶，所以这不在此预期内。我更关注执行层面，如利润率等，在看到他们关于 MSFT 的白皮书和建设/时间表后。如果仅凭现有业务就能按计划推进，那将是极其积极的信号。
英文原文
So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected. I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc. after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive. https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU
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NBIS基本面改善显著但股价未动，看好指数纳入及新订单带来的利好。
希望你不会遭遇追缴保证金（如果你使用了杠杆）。否则，杠杆带来的反弹应该会带来更高的上行空间。 $NBIS 自与 $MSFT 达成交易以来，基本面出现了极其积极的变化，但其股价仍维持在最初公告时的跳涨水平附近交易。 抛开宏观因素不谈： - 预计11月24日左右纳入 MSCI 世界指数基金。 - 政府人工智能高性能计算（AI HPC）订单（以色列）。 - 英国数据中心项目。 还有其他次要的服务发布，比如 Token Factory，但我认为上述三点是最大的变化（后两者带来收入增长，前者带来流动性流入）。
英文原文
Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside. $NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop. Macro aside: - Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th. - Government AI HPC deals (Israel) - UK Data center. There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)
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基本面强劲支撑AI板块，短期回调因宏观因素，建议逢低加仓。
忽略噪音，持有仓位或在市场赢家身上加仓。 你拥有： - 来自 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)的惊人远期营收增长 - 来自 $META 到 $MSFT 等七巨头(Mag7)财报创纪录的高资本支出(CapEX)预期 - 来自 $TSM 等半导体公司创纪录的高远期营收预期+利润率增长 如果基本面完好，像“AI派对结束了”这样的新闻头条就是胡扯。 随着政府停摆结束，我们很可能会看到重大复苏。 这很可能是一次短期回调，定价了诸如没有第三次降息（概率从86%降至70%，但仍有可能）+ 政府停摆延长至16日之后（合约市场显示53%的概率，两天前为30%）等因素。
英文原文
Ignore the noise and hold positions/add in market winners. You have: - Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR - Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT - Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from semiconductors like $TSM. If fundamentals are in tact, news headlines like "The AI Party is Over" is BS. We'll likely see a major recovery when government shutdown ends. This is likely a short-term correction pricing in a few things such as no third rate cut (86% -> 70%, still likely) + government shutdown extending past the 16th (53% chance, 30% chance 2 days ago) per contract markets.
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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IREN交易因承担高额CapEx且毛利远低于NBIS而显得糟糕。
当你关注自由现金流(FCF)而非营收数字时，$IREN 的交易看起来糟糕得多，因为它并非纯粹的托管服务(Colo)。当标准化至 300 MW 并对比微软(MSFT)的交易时，$IREN 预计毛利率仅为 30% 左右，甚至在悲观情景下为低个位数，而 $NBIS 则超过 50%（至少基于初步计算，我需要重新审视）。在这种情况下，$IREN 自行承担了 58 亿美元的 GPU 及辅助设备资本支出(CapEx)。
英文原文
The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo. When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit) In this case, IREN is taking on the $5.8 billion CapEx for the GPUs and ancillary equipment itself.
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对比CIFR与IREN，认为前者估值合理，后者合同条款差且利润率低。
对于 $CIFR，当前盈利无关紧要，市场定价基于远期盈利。乍看之下，除了通过 Fluidstack 现有的 $GOOGL 合作外，AWS 的交易看起来棒极了。因此其 20% 的涨幅实至名归。 另一方面，$IREN 的合同细看之下越来越糟。 营收不重要，重要的是该营收带来的自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，尤其是考虑到他们正在花费 58 亿美元购买 GPU。我看过一些保守情景测算，显示其年化营业利润仅约 9800 万美元/年，这真的太低了。 即便乐观估计，毛利率也在 30% 以下甚至 20% 出头，而非其他人引用的 90%+ 的高性能计算(HPC)板块。这才是规模化后的利润率现实。 $IREN 是在购买资产，而非人们一直声称的提供托管服务(colocation service)。 $NBIS 与微软(MSFT)的交易在标准化至 300MW 后，其盈利能力和毛利率远优于 $IREN。当然，我还需要花更多时间进行建模。
英文原文
For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump. For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more. Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low. Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale. IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do. $NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.
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对比NBIS与IREN微软合约，前者利润率更高且能产生自由现金流。
经过更深入的研究，$NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易在标准化至 300 MW 后，其盈利能力和利润率似乎远优于 $IREN。 这不仅仅关乎营收，因为如果不能产生自由现金流(FCF)，营收就没那么有用。 对于 $IREN： 总合同价值 97 亿美元 GPU 资本支出(Capex) 58 亿美元，包括辅助设备 ~38% 的毛利率。 $NBIS 51.76%+ 的毛利率。 我需要做更多计算来验证，这只是在交易差异方面的一次快速深度研究计算。
英文原文
After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful. For $IREN: $9.7bn total contract value $5.8bn GPU capex, including ancillaries ~38% gross margin. $NBIS 51.76%+ gross margin. I need to do more calculations to verify, this was just a quick deep-research calculation in terms of deal differences.
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维持NBIS看涨目标，看好新云服务商整体利好及NBIS高非对称性。
我仍维持 $NBIS 1年目标价 $400 的看涨观点，但逢低平均成本是个好主意。 $IREN 今天刚获得 $MSFT 的 90 亿美元订单，$GOOGL 也刚刚宣布融资，这对所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)来说总体是利好。 几家挖矿公司因该交易大幅降低了风险，但我仍认为 Nebius 具有最高的非对称性(Asymmetry)。
英文原文
I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it’s good to cost average. $IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it’s generally bullish for all Neoclouds. Several miners got de-risked a lot today from the deal, but I’d still say Nebius has highest asymmetry.
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推荐年末满仓MINT组合（META/IBIT/NBIS/TSM），利用错杀与高非对称回报。
只有四只股票： 🍬 MINT 拥有极其高、非对称的回报。 意味着低资本风险，高上行回报。 这仅适用于2025年11月和12月。 就是它... MINT 关于为何在2025年底满仓MINT的解释： M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM 将这些神圣的成长型公司纳入你的投资组合，你可以让呼吸更清新，从而吸引Sydney Sweeney： Mag7。加密货币。AI数据中心。半导体。 $META - Meta ___________ 愚蠢的抛售。 营收超预期。每股收益超预期。强劲指引。 当你看到营收512.4亿美元（同比+26.25%），净利润27.1亿美元（同比-82.73%）时，纸面上看起来极其糟糕。 🟢 营收：512.4亿美元 vs. 预期494.1亿美元 剔除一次性税收影响 → 🟢 每股收益：7.25美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 包含一次性税收影响 → 🔴 每股收益：1.05美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 我猜测最初的抛售是由算法驱动的，随后由机械性资金流引起。许多高频交易(HFT)和新闻解析系统会对直接从数据源（彭博、路透等）拉取的头条每股收益数字做出反应。 如果报告的GAAP每股收益（1.05美元）与共识预期（6.67美元）并列显示，系统会将其标记为大幅不及预期。显然这是推测性的，但许多模型并未编程以归一化处理一次性税收费用（这是新的），也不会知道去查看实际超预期的调整后每股收益（7.25美元）。 现在新闻声称抛售是由于AI资本支出惊喜所致。如果接受这个说法，因“AI资本支出增加”而下跌15%+纯粹是叙事，毫无意义，因为$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$TSLA以及每一个Mag7都在增加资本支出。 $META做同样的事却遭到抛售说不通，除非人们认为它只是进入一个没有投资回报的黑洞（市场不同意，因为AI基本上在推动$SPY）。 一旦周末有时间让人们消化实际发生的情况，恢复将是极强的买入机会。误读+愚蠢的叙事可能导致短期过度反应（1-2个交易日），通常会被逆转。 $IBIT - 比特币 ___________ 它是比特币。目前位于11万美元。 随着美国政府的支持，以及持续的货币通胀+资金流向新一代人，没有比BTC更好的通胀对冲工具了。 Polymarket仍然定价比特币在2个月内上涨40%至13万美元，即使它上涨几个百分点，你也可以在加密货币和底层资产上获得上行空间。 $NBIS - Nebius ___________ 核心业务估值：310-365亿美元 分部加总（现金、资产、投资组合）：~106亿美元（削减40% = ~63亿美元） 基准情景估值：~390亿美元 → 即使零增长也有高上行空间 核心业务有望在FY26-27实现~50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，60-70%毛利率，30%息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)目标。 通过再达成一个超大规模云厂商协议+SMB扩张，实现80-120亿美元ARR可能证明~1000亿美元估值合理。 无有毒债务，高GPU利用率，全栈架构 → 更高的经营杠杆。 你可以看我引用的要点比较，以便你对$NBIS vs $IREN做出自己的判断。 然而，我将始终维持$NBIS拥有包括$IREN到$CIFR在内的最高非对称回报，因为现有的超大规模云厂商协议、企业客户（Shopify, Accenture）、政府客户、1GW容量、来自全栈的高毛利率等。 这并不是说来自$WULF的Fluidstack + Google协议以及其他容量方面没有高上行空间。 Nebius的下行风险最低。而且它真的、真的有高上行空间。 $TSM ______________ 它是AI交易的中心。 他们已经指引利润率增加——这是天文数字般的。 营收：331亿美元 vs. 315亿美元预期。 每股收益：2.92美元 vs. 2.59美元预期。 指引：322-334亿美元 vs. 320亿美元预期。 他们超收了营收指引，利润率增加，他们印钱的速度真是天文数字。 财报前交易在305-310美元，现在回到300美元。 这是一家万亿+美元的公司，同比增长30%+且利润率提升——到底怎么回事。 我之前在$GOOGL 145美元和$HOOD 20美元时说过同样的话。他们印钱。 没必要辩论$ALAB vs $CRDO，$IREN vs $NBIS，$AMD vs $NVDA。 $TSM是整个AI建设周期的中心，所以这只是等待游戏。 _ 就是它$MINT。 享受歌曲的预告，有点炸。🎶
英文原文
There’s only Four stocks: 🍬 MINT That have ABSURDLY HIGH, asymmetrical return. Meaning Low Capital Risk. High Upside Return. This is only for Nov + Dec 2025. Here it is... MINT An explanation of why to full port MINT for end of year 2025: M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM With these four holy growth companies in your portfolio, you can make your breath smell better so you can pull Sydney Sweeney: Mag7. Crypto. AI Data Center. Semiconductor. $META - Meta ___________ Stupid sell-off. Revenue Beat. EPS Beat. Strong guidance. It looks extremely bad on paper when you look at Revenue $51.24B (+26.25% Y/Y), Net income $2.71B (-82.73% Y/Y). 🟢 Revenue: $51.24B vs. est. $49.41B Without one-off tax → 🟢 EPS: $7.25 vs. est. $6.67 With one-off tax → 🔴 EPS: $1.05 vs. est. $6.67 My guess was the initial sell-off was algorithmically driven, then caused by mechanical flows. Many high-frequency trading (HFT) and news-parsing systems react to headline EPS numbers pulled directly from data feeds (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). If the reported GAAP EPS ($1.05) is printed alongside a consensus of $6.67, the system flags it as a massive miss. Obviously this is speculative, but many models aren't programmed to normalize for one-time tax charges (which is new) and won’t know to look at adjusted EPS ($7.25), which actually beat. Now news are claiming the sell-off was due to AI capex surprise. If we go with this, -15%+ on “AI capex spending increasing” is just pure narratives and means absolutely jack since $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $TSLA, and every single Mag7 is increasing on capex. $META doing the same and selling off doesn’t make sense, unless people believe it’s just going into a black hole with no ROI (which markets disagree since AI is basically running $SPY). Extremely strong buy on recovery once there’s time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened. Misreads + stupid narratives can cause short-term overreactions (1–2 sessions), often reversed. $IBIT - Bitcoin ___________ It’s Bitcoin.And sitting at $110k. Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there’s no better hedge against inflation than BTC. Polymarket still prices Bitcoin 40% to $130k in 2 months’ time, even if it moves up a few percent you can have upside on CCs and upside on the underlying asset. $NBIS - Nebius ___________ Core business valuation: $31–36.5B Sum-of-parts (cash, assets, portfolio): ~$10.6B (slashed 40% = ~$6.3B) Base case valuation: ~$39B → high upside even with zero growth Core business on track for ~$5B ARR (FY26–27), 60–70% gross margins, and 30% EBITDA target. Hitting $8–12B ARR (via one more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion) could justify ~$100B valuation. No toxic debt, high GPU utilization, full-stack architecture → higher operating leverage. You can look at the bullet point comparison that I quoted so you can make your own judgement on $NBIS vs $IREN for example. However, I’ll always maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return over anything including $IREN to $CIFR due to existing hyperscaler deals, enterprise clients (Shopify, Accenture), Government Clients, 1GW capacity, high gross margins from full-stack, and many others. That’s not saying there’s not high upside from $WULF from Fluidstack + Google deals, and others from capacity. The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside. $TSM ______________ It’s the CENTER. OF. THE. AI. TRADE. They’ve already guided INCREASING MARGINS - which is astronomical. Revenue: $33.1B vs. $31.5B est. Earnings per Share: $2.92 vs. $2.59 est. Guidance: $32.2B – $33.4B vs. $32.0B est. They’ve beat revenue guidance, increasing margins, and it’s just astronomical how much money they’re printing. It was trading at $305–310 pre-earnings, now back at $300. It’s a $1T+ company that grew 30%+ Y/Y with their margins — what the actual. I said this about the money printer $GOOGL back at $145 and $HOOD back at $20. They print money. There's no need to debate $ALAB vs $CRDO, $IREN vs $NBIS, $AMD vs $NVDA. $TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it’s just a waiting game. _ There is it $MINT. Enjoy a teaser of the song, kinda a banger. 🎶
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分析超大规模云服务商自建ASIC对NBIS等公司的长期下行风险及合约保护机制。
是的，长期来看，超大规模云服务商自建ASIC和产能，且在合约容量结束后不再使用Neoclouds，这是$NBIS等公司的下行风险。我在最初的投资逻辑中提到，$CRWV、$NBIS几乎充当$NVDA的“云业务部门”，有助于抵御来自超大规模云服务商的利润率压缩并实现业务多元化。这就是为什么超大规模云服务商将收入导向这些小型公司。但总体而言，如果你的合约条款是10年或15年，你会拥有更多保护，但收入增长幅度较小（例如$NBIS与$MSFT的交易，收入在1-2年内从约11亿美元ARR增长至38亿美元以上ARR）。话虽如此，那是4-5年后的事，目前推测为时过早。通常你会根据新信息的出现，按月进行重估或审视风险与回报。
英文原文
Yeah longer term that's the downside risk for $NBIS and others in terms of hyperscalers building out ASICs and capacity and not using Neoclouds after contracted capacity ends. I said in my original thesis that $CRWV, $NBIS and almost serve as $NVDA's cloud arm, and helps defend against margin compression from hyperscalers and diversify their business. That's why hyperscalers funnel revenue down to these small guys. But generally, you have more protection if your contract terms are 10Y or 15Y but less revenue ramp. (eg. with $NBIS $MSFT deal, revenue ramps to $3.8B+ ARR in 1-2 years on top of their ~1.1B ARR) That being said, that's 4-5 years from now, it's too far forward to speculate as of now. Usually you do things like re-rate or examine risk vs. reward month-by-month whenever new information comes out.
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对比不同数据中心租赁期限对收入爬坡及长期竞争力的影响。
我删除了之前的评论，因为 X 平台有 Bug 导致时间线混乱： 简而言之： $APLD 建设具有显著电力容量的数据中心，然后将基础设施租赁给客户。目前有 $110 亿的 $APLD 和 $CRWV 针对 Ellendale 园区的 15 年租赁协议。 Polaris Forge 2 约为 200+ MW，合同价值 $50 亿。从交易者视角来看，我不太看好较长的合同期限（例如 $CIFR | $WULF 的 10 年），相比 $NBIS | $MSFT 的 5 年合同，因为前者收入爬坡较慢且成本存在变数。但这并非真正的利空，因为如果你投资的是 1 年周期，你会希望收入爬坡尽可能快。 但如果看 FluidStack $WULF 的 15 年合同协议，它为公司在长期内提供了更多保障；反之，如果像 $MSFT 这样的超大规模云厂商最终自建容量和定制 ASIC，那么一些 Neocloud 公司在 4 年后可能会陷入困境。
英文原文
I'm deleting my earlier comment to this since X is bugged and it's messing up my timeline: But TLDR from before: $APLD builds data-centers with significant power capacity and then lease that infrastructure to customers. So there's the $11B $APLD, $CRWV lease right now over 15 years for Ellendale campus. Then there's Polaris Forge 2 is ~200+ MW with a $5B contract. Not much of a fan of longer contract terms (eg. 10 Years $CIFR | $WULF), vs. 5 Year $NBIS | $MSFT, since slower revenue ramp and changes of costs, but this is coming from a trader's perspecitve. Not as an actual negative when I talk about longer contract terms since if you’re investing for 1Y timeframe, you’d want the fastest revenue ramp possible. But if you look at fluidstack $WULF contract agreements eg. 15 years it provides a lot more guarantees for a company over time, vs. if hyperscalers like $MSFT end up building out their own capacity and custom ASICs then some Neoclouds might be in trouble after 4Y
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分析AI基建公司融资方式、股权稀释风险及现金流依赖。
你说得对，低市值（MC）公司的风险比人们预期的要大，我会在下一篇帖子中指出其中的权衡取舍。 即使是市值较大的公司也会稀释股权，但稀释结构极其重要，就像 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 发行可转换债券（convertibles）那样。 有些公司主要通过资本支出（capex）进行融资，比如 $CORZ，但大多数公司（如 $NBIS）的目标是通过 $MSFT 的交易产生的自由现金流（fcf）来为资本支出融资。只是在初始建设阶段，像 $SLNH 这样的公司需要弄清楚如何为项目管道或 GPU 收购获取资金。
英文原文
You’re right there’s a lot more risk involved than people expect for lower MC ones and I’ll point off the tradeoffs in the next post. Even bigger ones dilute but dilution structure is extremely important like how $CIFR, $NBIS did convertibles. Some fund through primarily through capex like $CORZ, but the goal is for most like $NBIS to fund capex through fcf with the $MSFT deal. Just in initial buildout like $SLNH they need to figure out how to get funding for pipelines or GPU acquisitions.
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AI工具在分析Neoclouds时存在缺陷，作者更倾向手动整合信息并采用估值建模。
我发现像 @AskPerplexity、Grok 等 AI 工具在研究 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）和每日新闻频发的板块时，结果往往极不准确。它们会遗漏大量细节，例如 $NBIS 的白皮书中有关于与 $CRWV 等对比的利用率信息，这些数据对 AI 不可见（暗示了 GPU 利用率带来的毛利率增长）。当 Meta 与 $CRWV 达成 140 亿美元交易，且上周 $AMZN、$MSFT 等发布财报显示 AI 资本支出增加时，AI 可能会忽略那些未直接提及 $NBIS 但暗示超大规模云厂商交易增加的顺风因素。或者几天前的额外降息提振了涉及债务的 Neoclouds 的前瞻性盈利。亦或是关于 Clickhouse 等子公司或投资组合公司的新信息，AI 可能无法将其串联起来。FinX 散户在将这些信息拼凑成前瞻性增长方面做得更好，鉴于 AI/Neocloud 的总可寻址市场(TAM)具有高度投机性和快速增长，很难建模。这也是我采用估值方法的原因（在我之前关于 $NBIS 如何达到 1000 亿美元市值的帖子中），但如果看 $UPWK 等更标准的业务，我的估值建模方式则不同。
英文原文
I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day. They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization). When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals. Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with. FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is. That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently
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对比NBIS与IREN：前者低险高透，后者高险高赔。
是的，确实如此！别担心。 估值涉及产能（设备能力）以外的众多要素。以美国的 $ORCL（甲骨文）为例，他们最终失去了利润优势，因为即便在该规模下，其毛利率也仅为 14%。 利润率（Margin）至关重要。 $NBIS 像 Amazon Web Services 一样开展全栈业务，因此在 Neo-Cloud 行业中拥有最高的利润率。 另一方面，许多转向 AI 计算业务的较小公司，在规模化后的利润率尚不明确。 不过，$NBIS 在合同等方面具有最高的透明度，目前只需等待规模扩张。 对于 $IREN 而言，关键在于能否获得像 $NBIS（Nebius）那样的 $MSFT 超大规模云厂商合同，以及在规模化时能否维持高利润率，这是一场“赌注”。 正因如此，我说 Nebius “下行风险最低，明年有 300%以上的上涨空间”。 而 $IREN 风险较大，但由于估值较低，若成功则回报可能更大。
英文原文
Yes it does! No worries 評価にはキャパシティ（設備能力）以上の多くの要素が関わっています。 アメリカの $ORCL（オラクル）を例に見ると、彼らは最終的に利益を失いました。というのも、その規模でも粗利益率がわずか 14% にとどまったからです。 マージン（利益率）は非常に重要です。 $NBIS は Amazon Web Services のようにフルスタックで事業を展開しているため、ネオクラウド業界の中でも最も高い利益率を誇ります。 一方で、AI コンピュート事業へ転換した多くのマイナー企業については、スケールした際の利益率がまだ明確に見えていません。 とはいえ、$NBIS は契約面などで最も高い透明性を持っており、あとは規模拡大を待つだけという段階にあります。 $IREN の場合、$NBIS（ネビウス）が得たような $MSFT とのハイパースケーラー契約を結べるかどうか、そしてスケール時に高い利益率を維持できるかどうかという「賭け」になります。 だからこそ、私はネビウスについて「下方リスクが最も低く、来年には 300%以上の上昇余地がある」と述べました。 一方で $IREN はリスクが大きいものの、評価額がかなり低いため、成功した場合のリターンはさらに大きくなる可能性があります。
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对比NBIS与IREN，认为NBIS因高ARR和现金储备更具优势。
两者都不错。无论选哪个都不会错。 但是，如果要在最小化风险的同时追求巨大回报，$NBIS 显然优于 $IREN。 他们的净资产超过 100 亿美元，其中 58 亿美元为现金，其余为处于超大规模扩展中的投资组合公司（如 Clickhouse）的股票。 Clickhouse 为 Anthropic 和 $META 提供基础技术。 此外，凭借与 $MSFT 的合同，其年度经常性收入（ARR）在基准情况下达到 49 亿美元。 即使增长完全停滞，其估值预计也将超过 400 亿美元。 然而，考虑到其季度营收增长率超过 1000%，我认为再获得一家超大规模云服务商的合同，其市值就有望达到 1000 亿美元。 相比之下，$IREN 以投资产能的形式存在，目前除 Poolhouse 外，没有明确的企业合同等前景。 在这方面，$NBIS 已经直接与微软、Shopify、埃森哲等政府机构和企业进行交易。
英文原文
Both are good. どちらを選んでも間違いではありません。 しかし、リスクを最小限に抑えつつ大きなリターンを狙うなら、$IREN よりも $NBIS が明らかに優れています。 彼らの純資産は 100 億ドル以上で、そのうち 58 億ドルが現金、残りは Clickhouse のようなハイパースケーリング中のポートフォリオ企業の株式です。 Clickhouse は Anthropic や $META を支える基盤技術を提供しています。 さらに、$MSFT との契約により、ベースケースでの年間経常収益（ARR）は 49 億ドルに達しています。 仮に成長が完全に止まったとしても、評価額は 400 億ドル以上と見込まれます。 しかし、四半期ごとの収益成長率が 1000% を超えていることを考えると、もう1件ハイパースケーラーとの契約を獲得すれば、時価総額は 1000 億ドルに達する可能性があると見ています。 一方で $IREN は、キャパシティへの投資という形になりますが、現時点では Poolhouse 以外に企業契約などの明確な見通しがありません。 その点、$NBIS はすでに Microsoft、Shopify、Accenture などの政府機関や企業と直接取引を行っています。
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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根据交易策略和标的波动性选择券商平台
我在盈透证券(IBKR)之外也使用Robinhood和Charles Schwab。使用多个平台没问题。 但如果你大量交易期权，建议转向$IBKR或Fidelity，因为两者的执行质量极佳。在波动性更高的情况下，$IBKR可能略胜Fidelity。 不过情况很微妙。如果买卖价差很低（如$MSFT或$SPY），$HOOD优于其他平台，你实际上能省钱。 如果你在$CIFR或高隐含波动率(IV)股票上卖出期权，价差通常大得多，仅因糟糕的成交执行（例如交易6万美元期权）就可能损失数千美元，此时你最好从$HOOD转移。 如果是长期投资且不加杠杆，平台选择其实无所谓。如果是长期投资且使用股票保证金，$IBKR或Robinhood很棒，因为保证金利率较低，而Schwab/Fidelity较高。 总之，这取决于你的具体目标和持仓股票，情况相当微妙。
英文原文
I use Robinhood and Charles Schwab too on top of IBKR. It's fine to use multiple. But if you're doing a ton of options it's worth going to $IBKR or Fidelity since both of them have great execution. IBKR probably tops out Fidelity when it comes to more volatility. It's nuanced though. $HOOD beats other platforms if the spread is low like $MSFT or $SPY and you'll actually save money. If you're selling options on $CIFR or higher IV stocks, the spread is likely to be much much higher and you can lose thousands of dollars (if you trade with $60k in options for example) just based on bad fills and completely you're better off moving from $HOOD. If you're long term investing, no margin, doesn't really matter what platform you go. If you're long term investing margin with shares, IBKR or Robinhood are great cause margin rates are low, while Schwab/Fidelity are higher. Again it's kinda nuanced depending on what exactly you're aiming to do, what stocks you have.
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建议忽略可疑交易，聚焦微软等大客户合同及NBIS等核心标的。
@adenois @RJCcapital 是的，我可能错了，股价可能会随机拉出一根100%的大阳线，但下次还是应该相信我对那笔与某家东南亚随机公司达成的14亿美元交易的直觉判断。 关注超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）如 $MSFT 类型的合同，并专注于 $NBIS 及其同行要安全得多。
英文原文
@adenois @RJCcapital Yeah I could be wrong and the stock pulls a random 100% green candle but should just trust my gut about the $1.4B deal with a random SEA company next time. Lot safer to look at hyperscaler $MSFT type contracts and just focus on $NBIS and co.
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对比IREN与NBIS模式，指出矿工自建HPC堆栈难敌全栈合作优势。
$IREN 在加密货币挖矿方面拥有良好的利润率和高吉瓦(GW)容量，但这并不能直接转化为高性能计算(HPC)优势。 与此同时，他们正采取 $CIFR 和 $WULF 的路径，通过中间件编排将业务导向超大规模云服务商，但这会在长期内大幅压缩利润率。 $NBIS 直接与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，实际上可以随着时间的推移提高其毛利率。 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为小型转型的案例，但最近我们学到的残酷现实是，如果许多矿工试图建立自己的编排和堆栈，他们很可能会失败。 $ORCL 是软件护城河的完美例子：如果一个市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商都感到困难，那么一个市值 40 亿美元的比特币矿工，或者像 $SLNH 这样市值 1 亿美元的微盘股，又该如何转型呢？ 如果他们选择直接转型，许多人在估算比特币矿工基本面时参考 $CRWV 将吉瓦(GW)转化为收入/利润的方式，但实际回报在执行过程中可能会令人失望。 Nebius 从一开始就是第一名，甚至在 GPU 利用率上超越了 $CRWV（根据其最新的白皮书），其全栈带来的长期盈利能力将在财报中胜过投机。
英文原文
$IREN has good margins for crypto mining and large GW capacity but that doesn’t translate directly into HPC. They’re going the $CIFR $WULF route in the meantime with middleware orchestration funneling to hyper scalers but that cuts into margins a lot in the long run. $NBIS is direct to $MSFT full stack and can actually increase their gross margins over time. Everyone points to $CRWV as the example to minor pivots but the harsh reality as we learned recently is that if many miners try building their own orchestration and stack, they will likely fail. $ORCL is the perfect example of the software moat where if a $800B hyperscaler has trouble how would a $4B bitcoin miner pivot, or a $100m microcap like $SLNH do it. If they go direct, a lot of people estimating bitcoin miner fundamentals use $CRWV in terms of translating GW to revenue/profit, but the actual returns will likely be underwhelming during the execution. Nebius is #1 from the very start, even beating out $CRWV (from their most recent whitepaper with gpu utilization) and long term profitability from full stack will shine when it comes to earnings vs speculation.
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作者认为NBIS全栈软件优势带来高毛利，优于IREN等矿企，故重仓NBIS。
为了解决关于新云（Neocloud）的争论： $NBIS > $IREN 及其他。 基于 $ORCL 的报告、NBIS 白皮书、$CRWV 的收购案以及其他因素， 我决定将数百万资金整合进 Nebius，并清仓像 $CIFR 这样的矿企。 📏 毛利率 > 吉瓦（GW）产能 以下是数学逻辑及原因： 此前，由远期收入支撑的新云板块（例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的 190 亿美元交易）经历了巨大的投机性上涨。 然而，由于原始 GW 产能（如 $IREN）和廉价能源，加密货币矿企近期上涨了 500%+。 然而，人们忽略的是，产能虽能带来更高的收入，但如果不可盈利（例如 $ORCL 14% 的毛利率），这些收入毫无意义。 随着更多关于 $ORCL 建设失败、$NBIS 白皮书等的信息公布，我们得知如果经济模型无法转化，电力和产能意义不大。 而 $NBIS 拥有一切优势。 1. 毛利率差距：全栈 vs 中间件 像 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这样的矿企必须依赖编排合作伙伴（Fluidstack、Poolside 等）来变现其 GPU。这意味着要放弃 20-30% 的收入（~来自深度研究的私人估算），并承担 GPU 折旧、电力和运维成本。结果是？ 在 $3-4/小时 的 GPU 定价和 ~80% 利用率下，IREN/CIFR 的毛利率 = ~44-52% 在 $5-6/小时 和 90% 利用率下，毛利率可能达到 ~55-60%，但这已是天花板。 与此同时，Nebius 通过拥有编排层并分摊 4 年成本，目前获得 70-75% 的毛利率（上一季度为 71.2%，可能为 60-70%，近期白皮书声称更高的 GPU 利用率可能使其更高）。 随着规模和利用率的提高，这一差距会复利扩大。 矿企每赚一美元都要分出一部分，而 Nebius 的毛利率随时间增加。 2. 软件是护城河，Oracle 证明了这一点 即使 $ORCL 这样市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商，也无法盈利地构建 GPU 编排，其 AI 租赁平台报告约 14% 的毛利率，并在此过程中亏损约 1 亿美元。 如果 Oracle 都无法执行，指望市值 1 亿美元的小型矿企如 $SLNH 从头构建超大规模云级别的编排系统只是痴人说梦。 像 Fluidstack 这样的平台是必要的桥梁，但代价高昂：毛利率压缩、收入流失和平台依赖。 Nebius？它已经完成了最难的部分。其内部编排软件、GPU 利用率，没有中间商赚差价。 3. 电力 vs 毛利率计算 单张 H100 功耗约 0.7-0.84 kW。即使在 $0.10/kWh 的电价下，每张 GPU 每小时的电费仅为 $0.07-0.08。当 GPU 以 $4-6/小时 出租时，这仅占收入的 1-2%。 真正影响大局的是什么？利用率： 50% -> 85% 的正常运行时间 = 每张 GPU 收入增加 70% 这是数百个基点的毛利率波动，远超与矿企相比的“廉价电力”优势。 软件利用率/编排是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高 30-70 倍。而且 $NBIS 也不缺廉价电力 lol。 4. 矿企中的 CRWV 例外 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为矿企转型的案例，但 Coreweave 实际上花了数年时间，并进行了数十亿美元的软件收购。 即使现在，报道显示其利用率仍落后于 Nebius。如果矿企认为他们能复制 CRWV，祝他们好运。 我预计 $NBIS 在明年的财报中，当执行与投机面临检验时，将大幅跑赢。 🧩 非对称性 Nebius 毛利率：70-75%（全栈，4 年折旧） IREN/CIFR 现实毛利率：40-60%（中间件，2-3 年折旧） 毛利率差额：15-30 个百分点 执行风险：Nebius = 0（已在执行）；IREN/CIFR = 高 Nebius 不是电力博弈。它是软件毛利率博弈，带有硬件上行空间。对于 $IREN 等，你是在猜测它能否像 $CRWV 那样成功。 人们不断说“软件不是护城河，看看 $CRWV 对 $IREN 未来 HPC 毛利率的影响”，但如果 $ORCL 这样最大的超大规模云服务商之一都卡在 14% 的毛利率。那么我们怎么指望这些小加密货币矿企能搞定 Coreweave。 就非对称性更新而言，$NBIS 是明确的赢家。就原始潜在上行空间而言，如果 $IREN 能像变魔术一样搞定 $CRWV 并在此方面击败 $ORCL，那我确实会认输。 软件全栈是一个巨大的护城河，人们严重低估了它。对于 $NBIS，他们可以只是即插即用，随着时间推移扩大规模，拥有行业内最高的毛利率。 $NBIS 就是真正的非对称回报的样子。
英文原文
To settle the Neocloud debate: $NBIS > $IREN + others. Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper, $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors, I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR. 📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity Here's the math + why: We've had a huge speculative run across the board on Neoclouds backed by forward revenue (eg. 19B $MSFT deal with $NBIS). However, crypto miners have recently gone up 500%+ due to raw GW capacity like $IREN and cheap energy. However, what people miss out on is capacity leads to much higher revenue but that revenue means nothing if it's not profitable (eg. $ORCL 14% gross margins). Now that more information has come out regarding $ORCL's buildout failure, $NBIS's whitepaper, and others, we know power and capacity mean little if the economics don’t translate. And $NBIS has everything. 1. The Margin Gap: Full Stack vs. Middleware Miners like $IREN and $CIFR must rely on orchestration partners (Fluidstack, Poolside, etc.) to monetize their GPUs. That means giving up 20–30% of revenue (~private estimates from deep research), plus absorbing GPU depreciation, power, and O&M. The result? At $3–4/hr GPU pricing and ~80% utilization, IREN/CIFR margin = ~44–52% At $5–6/hr and 90% utilization, margin could reach ~55–60%, but that’s the ceiling Meanwhile, Nebius earns 70–75% today by owning the orchestration layer and amortizing over 4 years (71.2% from previous Q, likely 60-70%, possibly higher from recent whitepaper claiming higher GPU utilizations). This gap compounds as scale and utilization rise. Miners give away a piece of every dollar they earn while Nebius INCREASES gross margins over time. 2. Software Is the Moat and Oracle Proved It Even $ORCL, an $800B hyperscaler, failed at building GPU orchestration profitably, reporting ~14% gross margins on their AI rental platform and losing ~$100M in the process. If Oracle can’t execute, expecting $100M marketcap small miners like $SLNH to build hyperscaler-grade orchestration from scratch is wishful thinking. Platforms like Fluidstack are essential bridges, but they come at a cost: margin compression, revenue leakage, and platform dependency. Nebius? It already did the hard part. Its in-house orchestration software, GPU utilization, with no middlemen taking a cut. 3. Power vs. Margin Calculations A single H100 uses ~0.7–0.84 kW. Even at $0.10/kWh, power is just $0.07–0.08 per GPU-hour. When GPUs rent at $4–6/hr, that’s 1–2% of revenue. What actually moves the needle? Utilization: 50% -> 85% uptime = +70% revenue per GPU That’s a multi-hundred bps margin swing, far outweighing any "cheap power" comparison with miners. Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. And it's not like $NBIS doesn't have cheap power either lol. 4. The CRWV Exception to Miners Everyone points to $CRWV as miners pivot but Coreweave literally spent YEARS to do this, along with billions in software acquisitions. And even now, reports suggest their utilization trails Nebius. If miners think they’ll replicate CRWV, good luck. I'd expect in NBIS to strong outperform in next year's earnings reports when it comes time for execution vs. speculation. 🧩 The Asymmetry Nebius GM: 70–75% (full-stack, 4yr depreciation) IREN/CIFR realistic GM: 40–60% (middleware, 2–3yr depreciation) Gross margin delta: 15–30 points Execution risk: Nebius = 0 (already doing it); IREN/CIFR = high Nebius isn’t a power play. It’s a software margins play, with hardware upside. With $IREN and others, you're guessing if it can pull off a $CRWV. People keep saying "software it not a moat, and look at $CRWV for $IREN future HPC margins", but if $ORCL one of the largest hyperscalers is stuck at 14% gross margins. Then how do we expect these small crypto miners to pull off a Coreweave. In terms of ASYMMETRICAL UPDATE, $NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. In terms of raw potential upside if $IREN manages to pull a $CRWV out a hat and beats out $ORCL in this, sure I'd concede. Software full stack is a HUGE moat that people vastly, vastly underestimate. With $NBIS, they can just let it plug and play scale up over time with the highest gross margins in industry. $NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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分析Nebius收入滞后及估值，预测1年内市值达1000亿美元。
是的，完全确认收入可能存在约12-16个月的滞后，但来自 $MSFT 交易的季度收入很可能在2026年Q4和2027年Q1实现。如果 Nebius 完全停止增长，该季度收入同比将增长1000%+至12.25亿美元/季度（约49亿美元 ARR）。当然，这是一家超大规模扩展公司，所以我预计另一个 Mag7 交易加上其他企业/SMB客户会推高这一数字（这就是我们如何在1年内达到1000亿美元市值的原因）。此外，我使用了6-8倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）和15-25倍的 EV/EBITDA（企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润），这是保守的，而非10-15倍的 P/S（市销率）。这是核心业务（例如，330亿美元核心业务中位数 + 从分部加总（现金、GPU、Clickhouse等资产）折价40%），如果没有任何数字增长，今天的中位数约为390亿美元。
英文原文
Yep, there's probably ~12-16 month-ish revenue lag for full recognition but quarterly revenue with $MSFT deal would likely be realized Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. With that Q revenue would increase over 1000%+ Y/Y to $1.225B/quarter (~$4.9B ARR) if Nebius stopped growing completely. But of course this is a hyper-scaling company, so I'd expect another Mag7 deal + other enterprise/SMB clients to bring that number up (which is how we get to $100B MC from here in 1 year time) Also, I used EV/Revenue of 6–8× and EV/EBITDA of 15–25, which is conservative not P/S multiple of 10-15. This was the core business (eg. $33B core business midpoint + 40% discounted from sum of parts (cash, GPUs, assets like clickhouse), which would put it to ~$39B today midpoint if there's zero growth in any number.
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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反驳AI算力溢出消失论，强调结构性增长及电网瓶颈。
既然有人@我，我不同意你作为TAM（总可寻址市场）基础的根本假设，但你的观点有合理之处。 AI算力增长实际上是一个结构性市场，目前正因前沿大语言模型(LLM)的使用而呈指数级增长，并将随着应用AI（机器人等）继续增长。暗示MSFT/Google的5-10年合同确认的使用量“溢出”（临时流动性）会消失是误导性的。 如果你想改述为Neoclouds目前捕获的溢出在超大规模云厂商完成建设后可能不存在，我同意。5-10年后我会更担心（在GCP 10年合同和Azure 5年合同结束后）。特别是当$AVGO与超大规模云厂商的定制ASIC、TPU/Tranium等+建设完成后。（作为交易者，我在2年周期内看涨，5年以上则不那么看多）。 第二点是试图对AI建设这样投机性的事物进行TAM的定量建模是错误的研究方法。 此外，10-15%的数据过于悲观，因为它忽略了如果AI算力是增长的结构性市场，超大规模云厂商的重复溢出。但你基于电网容量会跟上的假设，我不同意，这没问题。
英文原文
Since someone pinged me, I disagree on your fundamental assumption that you're basing TAM off of, but valid points. AI compute growth is actually a structural market that's growing exponentially right now fro new frontier model LLM usage, and will continue to grow from applied AI applications (robotics, etc). Implying MSFT/Google's 5-10 year contracts confirmed usage contracts "overflow" that will vanish (temporary liquidity) is misleading. If you wanted to reword it in saying the overflow that Neoclouds captured now might not exist after hyperscalers complete their buildout, sure. I'd agree with you, next 5Y-10Y out I'd be more worried (after GCP 10y contracts end of Azure 5Y contracts end). Especially when $AVGO x Hyperscaler custom asics, TPUs/Tranium, etc + buildout gets complete. (As a trader I'm bullish on a 2 year timeframe, not so much 5Y+ plus). Second thing is trying to quantitatively model TAM of something so speculative such as AI buildout is the wrong way to approach it. On top of that, the 10-15% figure is overly pessimistic because it ignores repeat-overflow from hyperscalers if AI compute is a growing structural market. But you're going off the assumption grid capacity will catch up, which I disagree, and that's fine.
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论证NBIS估值偏低，指出即使零增长其市值仍有大幅上涨空间。
1. 不，我说的是 $NBIS 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡可能存在一些收入滞后，但合同将在 2026 年底至 2027 年期间兑现，且其现有数据加上微软处于 $49 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入）的基准情形，我估计即使没有增长，其市值（MC）也比当前高出 62.5%。 我使用零增长作为例子，仅仅是为了展示该业务本身在结构上被低估的程度。 2. 这是一个关于如何达到 1000 亿市值的高层概述，而非全面分析。我在括号中提到未深入探讨 GPU 折旧和电力容量问题。但总体而言，即使是旧款 GPU 也能保持价值并继续提供收益。
英文原文
1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth. I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally undervalued the business is as is. 2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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NBIS估值极低且基本面强劲，下跌是机构吸筹良机。
我之前说过，$NBIS 240亿美元的市值简直荒谬可笑。它在为 $MSFT Azure 和其他超大规模云服务商提供支持的同时，季度营收增长超1000%，一年内 ARR（年度经常性收入）达到40-60亿美元以上。此外，它拥有70%以上的毛利率，50多亿美元现金，以及数十亿投资于 Anthropic、Meta 等超高速增长投资组合公司的资产。我们还有历史上最大规模的数据中心建设（出于国家安全原因）、11/12月的季节性因素，以及今年仅剩的两次降息作为顺风。但正是在这种散户被清洗或“纸手”只看价格不看基本面的时候，机构才会进行积累。这就是为什么在没有实质性利空的情况下下跌7%感觉像是一份礼物，尽管这对短期数据有打击。
英文原文
I said this earlier but 24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year by powering $MSFT azure and other hyperscalers. While doing 70%+ gross margins, having $5B+ in cash, and billions in assets that go up over time in hyper-growth portfolio companies that power Anthropic, Meta, and other is laughable. We also have the largest data center buildout in history for national security reasons, Nov/Dec seasonality, and 2 more rate cuts this year alone as tailwind. But it's times like these where retail gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how institutions accumulate. That's why the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift, even though it's a short term hit to the numbers.
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作者认为Nebius获超大规模云厂商注资后去风险，100美元仍被低估。
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 嗯，在 $MSFT 交易后建立投资信念(investing conviction)并没有错。 我在 $NBIS 低于 40 美元时就已持有，但直到一家超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)投入 170 多亿美元为公司去风险(de-risk)后，我才真正建立起信念。 话虽如此，每个人都有自己的观点，但我认为 Nebius 在 100 美元时仍被低估。
英文原文
@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 Hmm, nothing wrong with developing conviction after the $MSFT deal. I had $NBIS sub $40 but only developed conviction after 17B+ from a hyperscaler de-risked the company. That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I just think Nebius is undervalued at $100.
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认为NBIS核心业务被低估，机构持仓将大幅上升。
抛开子公司不谈，仅看核心业务，我认为 $NBIS 被低估了。Nebius 在短短1年内从1亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）增长到10亿-15亿美元 ARR，这种增长速度令人震惊。这是小公司赋能 $GOOGL Cloud、$MSFT Azure、$AMZN Web Services 等基础设施的世代性机遇，而这些是 Mag7（美股七巨头）中最盈利的板块。散户并未看到这一机会。机构肯定看到了，我不惊讶于 Nebius 的机构持股比例从38%在6个月内升至65%。
英文原文
Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued. It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y. And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7. Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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Neoclouds凭借软件编排优势解决GPU瓶颈，构建高毛利护城河。
好问题！超大规模云厂商已签署确切的利用率+支出协议，例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易，微软将在5年内支出170-200亿美元。这并非完全是在承担高资本支出(capex)的风险，因为他们是在为产能付费以解决瓶颈。他们仍在支出数百亿美元，部分原因是无法自建，部分原因是前期高资本支出存在更大风险。我在核心论点中写道，Neoclouds（新云）+ 有意将GPU分配给这些Neoclouds是 $NVDA 维持主导地位、实现多元化并避免未来利润率压缩的方式。我们也看到超大规模云厂商在自建方面遇到困难（如 $ORCL 亏损1亿美元），但这恰恰表明Neoclouds在软件编排处理GPU利用率以及通过其建设方式维持高毛利率方面拥有巨大护城河。$NBIS、$WLAC 等毛利率已达70%左右，现在只是执行问题。这不仅是芯片稀缺，这些小型公司+转型HPC的比特币矿工（如 $IREN）实际上拥有竞争优势，即护城河。
英文原文
Great question! Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years. It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road. We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout. $NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.
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NBIS 短期回调不改长期看好，机构持仓低且数据中心业务爆发。
$NBIS 在无重大消息情况下下跌 17% 并未改变我的信念。我的牛市目标价(PT) 仍为 $400。 我们以前见过这种走势： - $ASTS 每股收益(ER) 从 $58 跌至 $36，随后涨至 $83。 - $GOOGL 因 AI 搜索业务从 $170 跌至 $144，随后涨至 $257。 - $HOOD 因宏观因素从 $40 跌至 $28，随后涨至 $135。 当基本面和行业势头保持完好时，尽管短期下跌，坚定的信念终将获得回报。 来自 META、GOOGL、MSFT 的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 正向 AI 数据中心投入数十亿美元，而 Nebius 正在为 Mag7 的现金牛业务提供支持，预计还将有更多超大规模云服务商的交易。未来季度营收预计同比激增 1000%。这种增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。 机构持股比例较低（流通股的 38.3%），随着公司成长，各种手段将被用来从散户手中获取更多股份。 基本面和数据中心增长并未改变，反而呈指数级改善。（例如：今天宣布的新 Nebius 以色列数据中心，以及不断增长的年度经常性收入(ARR)）。 现在是做多(best times go long)的最佳时机，也是市场中赚取世代财富的地方。
英文原文
The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. We've seen this move before: - $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83. - $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257. - $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop. Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history. Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR). These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.
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超大规模云合同增加，META签约利好新兴云厂商，MSFT合同未定价。
更多超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同正在陆续到来。但你关于财报+降息（以及11/12月季节性因素）作为最大短期催化剂的观点完全正确。通常公司在财报后发布更多前瞻性指引时会获得估值重估(rerated)。当$META与$CRWV签约时，这对其他新兴云厂商(neoclouds)是极度看涨的信号。除此之外，我认为$MSFT的合同和其他降息预期尚未被市场定价。
英文原文
More hyperscaler contracts coming in. But you're spot on with earnings + rate cuts (+ Nov/Dec seasonality) as the biggest near-term catalysts. Usually companies get rerated after earnings when they release more insight into forward projections. When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds. Aside from that don't think $MSFT contract and other rate cuts are priced in yet.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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驳斥媒体抹黑，指出微软已签长期保底协议，服务器过剩论不成立。
这篇文章写得极差，且完全缺乏背景信息。上次他们发布针对 Oracle 的抹黑文章时，这种故意剥离背景的做法就引发了更广泛的抛售 @SEC @secpaulsatkins 文章的核心观点——“不断升级的计算需求可能导致服务器建设过剩，且无法获得足够的财务回报”——完全忽略了 $MSFT 已与多家新云厂商（例如与 Nebius 的 170-190 亿美元协议，或与 $CRWV 的协议）签署了多年期的合同预留，以确认其使用率。 这些都是微软为扩大产能而签署的数十亿美元最低使用量协议，且不含“随意终止”条款。 通过剥离这些背景，这篇文章就变成了空头抹黑帖加上“Sam Altman 是个坏人”的叙事，而非真正的新闻。
英文原文
Extremely poorly written and zero-contextualization article. Intentional no-contextualization led to broader selloffs last time they published an Oracle hit-piece @SEC @secpaulsatkins The core point - “Escalating compute demands could result in overbuilt servers without sufficient financial returns” - completely omits that $MSFT signed multi-year contractual reservations for confirmed utilization with many neoclouds (eg. $17-19B with Nebius or with $CRWV) These are tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization agreements Microsoft signed to scale capacity without “at-will” termination clauses. By stripping out that context, this becomes a short seller hit piece + Sam Altman terrible person narrative rather than actual news.
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建议无视噪音，关注基本面，利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢，只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力（数据中心、电力）的需求出现了绝对激增，而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低（例如 $NBIS 为 38%，而通常理想区间为 60-75%）。散户可能因错误原因（例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售，尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂，却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增）或受特定地区银行冲击影响，将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观，这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好（确实完好，且我们此前低估了需求），并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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区域银行恐慌是买入AI基建及新云厂商的良机，优选有真实营收支撑的标的。
宏观与回调思考 10月16日： 市场动态繁多，例如 $GLD 创历史新高，但这涉及美元的另一条复杂线索。今日股市主要下跌源于区域银行的冲击，因此我将聚焦于此。 以下是极佳的买入机会： 拥有确认的 Mag7 合同的新云厂商(Neoclouds) - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) 等。 AI 基础设施建设(AI Buildout) - 半导体如 $TSM（强烈买入，这类在爆发式财报后似乎总是回调以清洗看涨期权）。我们已有爆发式财报数据及增长的利润率+远期营收，$TSM 是我见过最简单的做多标的。TSM 的印钞能力也支持这一建设论点。 - 能源如 $FLNC 可能因数据中心建设+AI 使用带来的重估而继续上涨。 加密货币 - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 都是极好的买入点，但我对 $CRCL 等会稍加谨慎。人们可能对 2023 年 Silvergate 倒闭及 USDC 脱钩仍有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。 某些股票急需修正： - 量子计算 - 机器人/无人机 - 关键矿产（仅特定标的可能优质） 这些公司零营收却因炒作呈抛物线增长。 区别在于，新云厂商+AI 基础设施建设是基于执行确认的营收。它们虽都是国家安全风险，但 AI 建设有全球最富有的超大规模云厂商背书。 “$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL 等今年资本支出预计达 3200 亿。”- BI “$META, OpenAI 和 $ORCL 宣布未来几年将在数据中心投入超 1 万亿美元。”- BI 具体发生的情况： 市场今日因区域银行担忧下跌，但可能被夸大。最新恐慌源于 Zion/Western Alliance 的借款人欺诈。我猜测是个别银行问题，而非会导致信贷紧缩的系统性银行崩溃。 两周后降息概率接近 98%。这是全面必要的修正（以清除泡沫）+杠杆交易+期权流向。利用此次修正做多。 这仍是整个 AI 建设的最早期阶段，我预计 $NBIS 为例，1 年内 ARR 将增至 45 亿-70 亿+，市值从当前增至 600 亿+。 再次强调，新云厂商的炒作源于远期营收增长（基本面），而量子/部分无人机公司的炒作基于承诺。现在是扩大拥有疯狂远期营收增长（将导致市值大幅重估）公司多头的完美时机，而非仅如量子计算般的行业叙事/投机。
英文原文
Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th: There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD. Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that. It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc. AI Buildout - Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls). We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen. TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis. - Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use. Crypto - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though. People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging. It's a much needed correction for certain stocks: - Quantum - Robotics/Drones - Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good) That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype. _ The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution. They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it. " $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI " $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI _ In terms of what happened in specific: Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud. My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening. We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long. This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here. Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc. are based around promises. It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.
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机构低位增持 $NBIS，认为其将赋能 Azure，建议勿因噪音卖出。
机构在低位进行了一些有趣的操作，以积累 $NBIS 流通盘的另外 20%。 机构持股比例为 38%（极低）（优质公司通常在 60-80%），而对冲基金开始终于意识到 Nebius 未来将为 MSFT Azure 和许多其他前沿模型提供动力。 所以，在“大豆籽油”新闻上卖出并不是个好主意，但这可能像 Oracle 的抹黑文章一样甩掉了一些散户。
英文原文
Institutions do some fun stuff to accumulate another 20% of the float of $NBIS at lower levels. Institutional ownership is 38% (extremely low) (60-80% usually on great companies), and hedge funds are starting to finally realize Nebius will power MSFT Azure and many other frontier models in the future. So yeah, not a good idea to sell on the Soybean Seed Oil news, but probably shook off some retail like the Oracle hit piece.
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NBIS凭借全栈软件及多元客户，长期潜力优于IREN。
IREN 短期内可能因原始算力(GW)优势而表现优异，但 $NBIS 具备在市场修正/崩盘中存活并最终成为下一个市值超1000亿美元的 $MSFT 的潜力，其价值源于各部分投资之和。此外，他们拥有多元化的客户群（从 $ORCL 财报中我们已看到其重要性）。同时具备全栈+软件编排能力（从 $ORCL 财报及 $CRWV 收购软件公司中可见其重要性）。市场正在定价矿工转型的能力，但正如甲骨文案例所示，始终存在盈利风险，因此 NBIS 已具备这一优势。
英文原文
IREN might outperform near term just because of raw GW but $NBIS has the potential to outlast any market correction/crash and become the next $100B+ $MSFT with sum of parts investments. Also they have diversified client base (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report) Also full stack + software orchestration (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report and why $CRWV has been buying up software companies). People are pricing in miners being able to pivot but there's always profitability risk as seen with oracle, hence why NBIS already has that down.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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看好$NBIS营收增长及投资组合潜力，类比$HOOD与$MSFT。
$NBIS 是唯一一家在营收增长上做得完全正确的 Neocloud（新云厂商）。此外，其分部估值之和（Sum of Parts）未来可能高于核心业务，这将推动股价从当前水平上涨 1000% 以上。 像 FTX 那样在扩张过程中进行此类布局的企业，即便在低迷期也价值数千亿美元。（例如，FTX 曾持有 $HOOD、Anthropic、Dave、Solana 和比特币，这些资产均上涨了 1000% 以上）。 我常将其基本面营收与 $HOOD 做比较（$HOOD 季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增至 10 亿美元，估值达 1300 亿美元），因为 $NBIS 在一两年内就会超越这一水平，且起步市值相似。但像 $MSFT 一样，他们在维持核心业务的同时，也做出了 Clickhouse、Toloka、Avride 等优秀投资。
英文原文
$NBIS is the only Neocloud that’s doing everything right growing revenue and on top of that, their sum of parts might be worth more than the core business down the line, which would drive it to 1000%+ from here. Businesses that have done it while scaling like FTX before they went under would be worth hundreds of billions now even in a downturn. (Eg. ftx owned $HOOD, Anthropic, Dave, Solana, Bitcoin that all went up over 1000%+). I often compare the fundamentals revenue wise with HOOD though that went $150m quarterly to $1B quarterly with a $130B valuation) because $NBIS would surpass that in just a year or two and started at similar market caps. But like $MSFT they made some great investments like Clickhouse, Toloka, Avride while sustaining their core business.
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甲骨文GPU服务亏损凸显新型云在资本效率与利润率上的优势，利好NBIS等。
为什么$ORCL在GPU即服务（GPU-as-a-Service）方面面临的挑战（据泄露消息）实际上对Nebius等新型云（Neoclouds）是利好。 超大规模云服务商在GPU经济学上的挣扎，加强了专业化新型云的论点。 这对$NBIS、$WYFI、$IREN、$CIFR、$CRWV等股票来说是一个惊人的机会： 简而言之（据传闻）： 甲骨文面临亏损源于： - 客户增长前的低利用率（闲置产能） - 巨额前期资本支出（Blackwell GPU） - 沉重的 overhead（运营开销） - 折扣定价 结果：甲骨文的GPU计算业务出现负毛利率。 这对甲骨文是利空，对新型云是利好：这仅仅表明 1. 复杂性的证明 = 护城河的验证。 像$NBIS这样的新型云做得更好，这是一个真正的竞争优势和利润率机会（这就是为什么$MSFT选择与Nebius签约而不是自建）。 2. 资本效率优势。 新型云使用租赁/托管以获得灵活性（例如NBIS在Patmos和Verne），并通过工作负载分配保持高利用率（而甲骨文在利用率上挣扎）。 3. 外包需求增加 如果甲骨文和超大规模云服务商在建设上遇到困难，他们可能会将工作负载转移到新型云并签署更多合同（例如MSFT与CRWV）。 4. 甲骨文在此使用了折扣价格。新型云可以在优化利润率的基础上进行理性定价。 5. 定制基础设施提高利润率 像Nebius这样的新型云拥有用于GPU调度的定制编排堆栈，大量内部软件和自动化以最大化利用率和产出，从而维持50-70%的毛利率，相比之下ORCL则不然。 这对甲骨文和超大规模云服务商的建设是利空，但实际上对$CRWV、$NBIS等专业新型云提供商是利好。
英文原文
Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius. Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds. This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others: TLDR: (from rumors) Oracle faced a loss from: - Low utilization (idle capacity) before customer ramp - Massive upfront CapEx (Blackwell GPUs) - Heavy overhead - Discount pricing Result: Negative gross margins on GPU compute for Oracle. This is negative for Oracle, positive for Neoclouds: This is just goes to show 1. Proof of Complexity = Validation of Moat. Neoclouds like $NBIS do it better and this is an actual competitive moat and margin opportunity (This is why $MSFT went to Nebius to sign a deal instead of building it out themselves). 2. Capital Efficiency Advantage. Neoclouds use Leasing / colocation for flexibility (e.g. NBIS in Patmos & Verne), workload allocations to maintain high utilization (while Oracle struggled with utilization). 3. Outsourcing Demand Increases Oracle and Hyperscalers might shift workloads to Neoclouds and sign more contracts if they have trouble with buildout (eg. MSFT with CRWV) 4. Oracle used discount prices here. Neoclouds can just price rationally on top of optimizing their margins. 5. Custom Infra Increases Margins Neoclouds like Nebius have custom orchestration stacks for GPU scheduling, lot of internal software and automation to maximize utilization and yield to sustain 50-70% gross margins compared to ORCL. This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout but actually bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others.
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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指出微软远期估值数据有误，实际市盈率远低于表面水平。
@investnyourself 我相当确定在微软(MSFT)交易后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)数据有误。许多远期营收数字也不准确。我估计 $MSFT 及其他超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 2026年营收为40-60亿美元，2027年为70-90亿美元。毛利率约为70%左右。我不想做具体计算，但远期市盈率远低于表面看起来的水平。
英文原文
@investnyourself Pretty sure that forward p/e figure is off after the MSFT deal. A lot of forward rev # are off too. $MSFT + other hyperscalers est. 4-6B revenue 2026, 7-9B 2027 is my guess. 70%~ ish gross margins. I dont want to do the math but forward p/e is a lot lower than it looks.
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分享基于图表的波段交易策略，强调结合基本面与宏观分析的重要性。
我如何用图表进行波段交易，第二部分：短期（几周）+ 短中期（几个月）。 长期部分我会在另一篇帖子中讨论。 例1：$RKLB。仅凭直觉，在$40支撑位买入似乎是个好选择，$54卖出。通常下半部分（虚线）如$44也是不错的买入点，因为风险回报比良好，但你不会买到绝对底部。 你可以对像Rocketlab这样的股票这样做，因为长期来看，如果你持有足够久，即使它跌破$40，鉴于其基本面是强力买入（尽管目前略微高估），它很可能会恢复。 例2：$AMZN - 现在用正股买入是很好的选择。如果它跌破$210，你可以使用LEAPS（长期期权）。例如低于$200时，使用期限较短的看涨期权。 _ 了解基本面、宏观环境以及催化剂是否实质性影响也非常重要。如果未来收入大幅下降或行业利润率压缩，这些线条毫无意义。 很多时候它们因更非理性的因素下跌，例如GOOGL与苹果搜索之争，或者整体市场SPY下跌，但在这些情况下，如果没有实质性差异且公司持续增长，它们通常会再次上涨。再次强调，因人而异，在抄底时机上你需要分析图表以外的更多因素。这只是我所做工作的一部分。
英文原文
How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2: Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month). I'll do long term ones in another post. Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom. You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now. Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls. _ Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses. Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing. Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.
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通过对比NBIS与CIFR走势，论证基本面改变后图表模式对股价预测的有效性。
我常调侃图表分析，但有时它对基于模式的推理（非技术分析 TA）确实有帮助。 历史不会重演，但相似行业的公司往往押韵。 当基本面发生重大变化时： 例如 $NBIS（64->100->86）与 $CIFR（+32% -> -18% -> 上涨）在 $170亿 MSFT 交易和 GOOGL 30亿交易后的表现。 我们可能会看到 CIFR 在回调后像 NBIS 一样上涨。 它遵循了相同的模式：先上涨 32%，然后下跌 18%，现在它开始像 NBIS 一样攀升。 同样的逻辑也适用于财报后的 AVGO（先回调，然后大幅反弹）和现在的 ORCL（财报亮眼，回调，然后大幅反弹），因为基本面发生了改变。 我想把一些 Reddit 风格的图表分析带到 X 上，但在我看来，这是图表分析真正有用的一次。
英文原文
I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA). History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors. With things material to fundamentals: Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal. We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip. It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS. Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed. Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.
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建议对长期持仓进行正向定投，若估值未反映营收潜力则继续持有加仓。
@taleino93 补充一点，对于长期持有(long term holds)的标的，你应该进行正向定投(cost average up)。如果基本面利好显著，比如 $CRWV 之于 Meta 或 $NBIS 之于 MSFT，只要你认为上涨行情尚未完全反映未来的营收潜力，就继续持有并在回调时加仓。
英文原文
@taleino93 Adding on to this, for long term holds, you should cost average up. If it's materially positive like Meta for $CRWV or MSFT of $NBIS, just hold it and buy more if you think forward rev potential is not priced in from a rally.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
@regard_capital 我在这里写了一点关于 $ALAB 的内容 https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY $ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头(Mag7)中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率惊人，同比增长约 150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出(Capex)仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设继续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
@regard_capital I wrote a tiny bit about $ALAB here https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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看好为微软和谷歌提供AI算力的小市值公司，认为其估值错配带来巨大非对称回报。
未来8-12个月可能是自这些市值仅30-50亿美元的小型公司开始为Google Cloud或Microsoft Azure提供AI算力以来，市场尚未意识到这一机会（直到某份财报发布）以来的最快上涨期。 这些公司的合同已锁定，例如5年期170亿美元的大单。但市场总是前瞻性的，因此4年后如果看起来它们将开始像苹果与高通那样进行业务转型，我们将看到重新估值。 但与此同时，一家为$MSFT Azure提供动力的公司市值260亿美元，而一家为$GOOGL云提供动力的公司市值40亿美元，其未来的营收潜力和非对称回报在接下来两年里显得荒谬得可笑。
英文原文
Probably fastest runup in the next 8-12 months since most people and markets still don't see the opportunity with all these tiny 3-5B companies powering AI compute for Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure yet until one of their earning reports. These are contracts already locked in like 5Y for 17 Billion but markets are always forward looking so after 4 years if it looks like they'll start to pivot off like how apple did with Qualcomm, we'll see a revaluation. But in the meantime 26B mc for a company powering $MSFT azure and 4B MC for a company powering $GOOGL cloud is hilarious forward rev potential and asymmetrical return next 2 years.
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NBIS因微软大单、优质资产及强劲财务成为首选。
是的，$NBIS 是毫无悬念的首选。$170 亿的微软 (MSFT) 交易为期 5 年，因此收入爬坡最快，这还不包括更多交易。他们拥有大量优质公司，例如 30% 的 Clickhouse（Anthropic 使用）。资产负债表强劲（例如已筹集 $138 亿+，仅 $40 亿+），不像 $CRWV 那样有重大利息负担。NBIS 做全栈 (Full Stack)，业务更多元化，毛利率高。在 260 亿市值下，整体价值极其惊人。
英文原文
Yeah, $NBIS is #1 choice by a longshot. $17B MSFT deal was over 5 years so fastest revenue ramp, not including more deals. They own a ton of great companies like 30% Clickhouse, which Anthropic uses. Great balance sheet (eg. $4B+ raised $138+), no major interest like $CRWV. NBIS does full stack, more diversified businesses already, large gross margins. All-around such an incredible value at 26B.
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解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
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祝贺早期买入NBIS，本人微软合作后建仓，看好其千亿美元市值潜力。
@mvcinvesting 恭喜你在早期就买入了 $NBIS，发现正确的投机性标的从来都不容易。我介入得稍晚一些，在 $MSFT 的交易公布后建立了仓位。我认为该公司有潜力成为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@mvcinvesting Congrats on getting into $NBIS early, it’s never easy to spot the right speculative plays. I joined a bit later and built a position after the $MSFT deal. I see the potential for it to be a $100B company.
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质疑对方为何向随机用户咨询微软与英伟达的巨额合同事宜。
@IlanG05512373 你是在问一个随机的 X 用户关于 $MSFT 的事情吗？该用户做了尽职调查并给 $NBIS 签下了 170 亿美元的合同？
英文原文
@IlanG05512373 You're asking a random X user over $MSFT that did their due diligence and handed $NBIS a 17B contract?
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ALAB大涨验证逻辑，NBIS获巨头支持，作者建仓100万押注其市值翻倍。
$ALAB 从我两个月前推荐时的 $96 涨至 $244，涨幅 154%（尽管现在略显高估）。 $NBIS 正在重演类似的逻辑，且获得了 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 的支持。 $NBIS 从 $240 亿市值增长至 $600 亿+ 的路径清晰，这也是我建立 $100 万头寸的原因。
英文原文
$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now) Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA. NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.
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NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
英文原文
It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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揭露X博主用伪技术分析骗课，指出其忽略基本面与事后归谬。
X 上许多热门用户是试图出售订阅的骗子，其中就包括这位。 原因如下： 技术分析(TA) 对某些公司几乎毫无意义。$BMNR 是一家持有 $ETH 的公司。忽略 $ETH 而试图对 $BMNR 进行图表分析只会让人发笑。 从根本上说，$BMNR 追踪 $ETH，其价格约为净资产值(NAV) 的 1.3 倍。若 $BMNR 要上涨 100%，$ETH 需要上涨 82%。 Polymarket 预测 $ETH 在年底前（而非一个月内）达到 8000 美元的概率仅为 16%。 除非出现低浮盘盘前买入，或者在 $ETH 反弹后 NAV 脱钩，否则很难实现。 至于他们关于 $NBIS 的说法，其股价从 40 美元涨至 110 美元以上，是因为获得了 $MSFT 意外宣布的 170 亿美元合同，而不是因为有人在图表上画线声称技术分析(TA) 预测到了突破。 在分析突破时，这正是你不应该做的。 他们在每只股票上发布糟糕的预测，然后吹嘘事后诸葛亮说猜对了一两只，以此推销课程。
英文原文
Many popular users on X are scammers who try and sell subscriptions and this is one of them. Here’s why: TA barely means anything for some companies. $BMNR is an $ETH holding company. Ignoring $ETH and trying to chart $BMNR makes anyone laugh. Fundamentally $BMNR tracks $ETH and it’s roughly 1.3x NAV. For $BMNR to go up 100%, ETH would need to go up 82%. Polymarket predicts a 16% chance $ETH hits $8K by end of year, not 1 month. Either there would need to be a low float buy premarket or NAV depegging after an $ETH rally. As for their $NBIS claim, it went from $40 to $110+ from an unexpected 17 billion dollar $MSFT contract, not because anyone drew lines on a chart saying the TA predicted a breakout. When you analyze breakouts, this is exactly what NOT to do. They post crappy predictions on every stock then brag hindsight that they got one or two right to sell courses.
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对比 Oracle 与微软在 AI 领域的交易确定性，质疑 OpenAI 支付能力。
@taleino93 @unusual_whales 我真的不知道 $ORCL 该往哪个方向走。Oracle 的交易对象是 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 甚至没有 3000 亿（美元）的体量。$MSFT 与 $NBIS 的交易已确认金额为 170 亿美元，鉴于微软的背景，NBIS 被低估了。时间会证明 OpenAI 能否支付得起。
英文原文
@taleino93 @unusual_whales I genuinely don’t know which direction to go with $ORCL. Oracle’s deal was with OpenAi, which doesn’t even have 300B. $MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it’s Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued. Time will tell if OpenAI can pay up.
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博主列出下月基于潜力最看好的五只股票及买入逻辑。
如果我要根据潜力在下个月买入5样东西： 1. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例(SI)，新产品/降息催化剂+120万欧盟客户。逼空不可避免，只是时间问题。 2. $LTC - 抢在机构之前，为10月2日的ETF发行做准备。 3. $NBIS - 仅基于微软(MSFT)的交易，股价轻松达到100美元以上。抱歉了$IREN持有者。 4. $CRDO - 仅仅是为了追赶$ALAB的市值(MC)。 5. $HOOD - 鉴于标普(S&P)按市值加权且HOOD市值超1000亿美元，纳入标普的流入资金将大幅增加其市值。
英文原文
If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential: 1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time. 2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd. 3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders. 4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC. 5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.
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NBIS稀释利空已消化，股价获买盘支撑。
我说过，$NBIS 的稀释性回调已被完全买盘消化，因为市场早已将其定价。免费分享 6% 的回报 https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
英文原文
Told you, $NBIS dilution dip completely bought out since it was already priced in. Free 6% https://t.co/yo7W0HktdR
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NBIS稀释已定价，资金用于微软合同是利好，类比ASTS融资后股价大涨。
如果你担心 $NBIS，请记住**稀释效应已被市场定价**。$MSFT 的合同价值超过 170 亿美元，未来 7 年多将增加 300%+ 的营收。$NBIS 当天仅上涨 45%，而非 250%+。如果他们将资金用于 $MSFT 合同而非像 $GME 或 $AMC 那样持有，这是积极的。$ASTS 也启动了用于产品部署的融资，股价从 22 美元 -> 18 美元 -> 50 美元。
英文原文
If you're scared about $NBIS remember **DILUTION WAS ALREADY PRICED IN** The $MSFT contract was 17B+, increasing forward rev by 300%+ for over 7 years. $NBIS gained 45% on the day not 250%+. It's positive if they're using it for the MSFT contract instead of just holding it like $GME or $AMC. $ASTS also launched a capital raise for product deployment and their stock went from $22 -> $18 -> $50.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长高毛利，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
$ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头（Mag7）中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率令人惊叹，同比增长 ~150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设持续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7. 1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN. 2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market). 3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings. NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap. We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.
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分享GOOGL盈利及回购利好，看多科技股年底表现
关于我发布的WSB图表： 在$GOOGL上，已实现利润为101,428美元+，还有大量未实现利润，因为我预计如果科技股反弹持续，GOOGL年底将触及220美元+（$META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT）。 财报表现完全爆表，且他们仍有700多亿美元的股票回购计划 https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
英文原文
For WSB charts I posted: On $GOOGL, realized profit was $101,428+, and lots of unrealized profit since I expect GOOGL to hit $220+ EOY if tech rally continues ( $META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT) Earnings were a complete blowout and they still have 70B+ in buybacks https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
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看好$ALAB长期潜力，建议持有而非波段交易。
嗯，$ALAB 刚刚暴涨了 16%。 我实际上不会进行波段交易或在此时获利了结，因为我认为这是另一只像英伟达(NVIDIA)那样能涨 500%+ 的股票。 你并不经常看到市值仅 160 亿美元的小盘公司，在服务于七大科技巨头(Mag7)的同时，还能实现 150%+ 的同比增长和 76% 的利润率。
英文原文
Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%. I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock. You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.
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博主建仓 $ALAB 并计划加仓，看好其高利润、高增长及顶级客户群。
我刚刚在 $ALAB 上建立了约 17.5 万美元的长期头寸，并计划将其逐步加仓至约 50 万美元，将其视为一个潜在的市值超 500 亿美元的“登月”机会。 拥有类似英伟达 (NVDA) 的利润率（76%），同比增长超过 144%，客户包括英伟达 (NVDA)、亚马逊 (AWS)、微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL)、英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD，而市值仅为 160 亿美元。 不可思议的客户群 + 增长/利润率。 https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
英文原文
I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot. NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap. Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB