$RTX
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美国CHIPS Act资金显示美国政府强力支持SIVE，涉及Golden Dome和RTX防务供应链。
市场有点意识到美国政府正在大力支持 $SIVE，正如直接美国 CHIPS Act 资金所显示。 因为你能在 $YSS Golden Dome 供应链（来自 allspace）和 $RTX 防务供应链（CHIPS Act）中看到 Sivers。 不过是的，Ericsson 和 Sivers 可能是从美瑞技术 MOU 中受益更明显的两个。
英文原文
Markets are kinda realizing US Gov is heavily backing $SIVE as you can see with direct US CHIPS Act funding. Since you see Sivers in $YSS Golden Dome supply chains (from allspace), and $RTX defense supply chains (chips act). But yeah Ericsson and SIvers are probably the two more noticable ones benefiting from US x Sweden tech MOU.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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SIVE 可能迎来 CHIPS Act 第二轮
提示一下……$SIVE 的 CHIPS Act 第二轮资金很快就要来了（这和 CHIPS Act 的续周期相一致） 美国政府不会随便把钱发给一家市值 10 亿美元的瑞典公司。 这非常不寻常。市场很可能漏掉了什么。 因为他们拿到了这些资金： -> $RTX 和 $ERIC 的波束成形器（空间/电信）。 -> BAE Systems 的 STAR 双工阵列（电子战中的雷达干扰）。 国防主承包商很可能正在用 Sivers 的微芯片 IP 来造最终产品。 至于最终产品……还有什么空间 + 军工承包商应用会涉及 LEO 卫星？我想你应该能猜到。 这些国防主承包商并不是要在太空里播放泰勒·斯威夫特的 YouTube 视频…… 但商业衍生品也可以用于 SpaceX / Amazon LEO Kuiper 这类应用。 不管怎样，你还拥有 AI 光子这条故事线，而这才是核心增长垂直领域。 我最兴奋的还是光子……但你也顺手得到了一家由美国 CHIPS Act 背书、嵌入 Raytheon 和 BAE Systems 的公司，去做那些他们在太空里想搞的黑科技。 只是没人知道精确时间线和应用，因为 CHIPS Act 国防合同就是这种性质。 但它也许会在未来的财报里突然出现。
英文原文
Hint... $SIVE CHIPS Act round 2 incoming soon (consistent with the CHIPS Act renewal cycle) The U.S. government doesn't just give out funding to random $1B Swedish companies. It's highly unusual. And there's probably something markets are missing. Since they got funding for: -> $RTX and $ERIC Beamformers (space/telecom). -> BAE Systems for STAR duplex arrays (radar jamming during electronic warfare) Defense Primes are likely using Sivers microchip IP to build the final products with this. As for the final products... What other space + military contractor applications are there involving LEO satellites? And I think you can guess. The defense primes aren't trying to play Taylor Swift Youtube videos in space... But the commercial spinoff can also be used for SpaceX/Amazon LEO Kuiper type applications. Regardless, you have the side of the AI photonics story, which is the core growth vertical. I'm most excited for photonics... but you also happen to get a company backed with U.S. CHIPS ACT embedded in Raytheon and BAE Systems for whatever black magic they want to do in Space. Just nobody knows exact timeline + applications because due to the nature of CHIPS ACT defense contracts. But it might appear randomly in financial statements down the road.
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主张与其烧昂贵导弹，不如更多投入定向能武器。
或者……与其把几十亿美元花在“更便宜的导弹”上。 毕竟现在用 300 到 400 万美元的爱国者导弹去打便宜无人机，根本不奏效。 我们是不是该更多研究并部署像 $LASR 和 HPM 这样的定向能武器？ 用 HEL（高能激光）的话： 它就是一束光……砰砰。每发 3.5 美元。 用 HPM（高功率微波）的话——它是一道能量锥，用来打无人机蜂群。 也许每次脉冲 0.05 美元左右？弹药基本等于无限。 虽然 $LMT 和 $RTX 也在做这些，但感觉我们只是一直在买昂贵导弹去给它们送钱。 如果把原本花在导弹上的数十亿美元，转去资助这类无限弹药的新技术…… 也许早就能把定向能武器做得更成熟了（比如解决驻留时间、天气变化、射程、功率这些问题）。 在伊朗这种延长冲突里，用几十亿美元的导弹去打便宜无人机，显然不可持续。
英文原文
Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles". Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working. We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM? With HEL (High Energy Lasers): It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot. With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms. Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite. Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point. More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles... Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power). Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.
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强调 SIVE 通过 CHIPS Act 和国安项目对美国很重要，并给出更高估值判断。
如果你到现在还不知道，$SIVE 通过 CHIPS 法案对美国国家安全很重要。 而且尤其是，它还是超大规模云 AI 供应链的光源。 到目前为止，他们已经拿了大约 1160 万美元的两笔 CHIPS 法案资助： 1. 和 $ERIC 以及 Raytheon $RTX 一起做 FR3 beamformer ICs 2. 和 $BA（LSE）BAE Systems 一起做 EW 技术 CEO 还暗示 2026 年会有更多来自 CHIPS 的资金。 小盘股几乎从来拿不到美国政府这种支持。 你手里有一家市值 3.3 亿美元的公司： 它对美国半导体业务的国家安全至关重要， 也对超大规模云供应链（$MSFT、$META、$AMZN、$ORCL 等）里的光子学至关重要， 通过 $MRVL Celestial、Ayar、Jabil、ONet 等链条。 关于扩产和 capex 的问题，现在已经由 Win Semi 合作基本回答了。 至于“等待 CPO”的机会成本，现在也被 OFC 上 Jabil 1.6T 可插拔模块放量这件事回答了。 $SIVE 是光子学里最被低估的宝石之一，我个人认为它今天就应该值 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act. But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains. They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far: 1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX. 2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems With more coming funding from CHIPS in 2026 hinted by the CEO. Small caps almost never get this sort of support from the US government. You have a company sitting at $330M: That's critical to US National Security for their Semi arm. and Critical to Hyperscaler supply chains ( $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL, etc) for Photonics through $MRVL Celestial, Ayar, Jabil, ONet, and others... The main question regarding scale vs. capex is now answered by Win Semi partnership. And the question regarding "CPO waiting" opportunity cost is now answered by the Jabil 1.6T pluggable ramp from OFC. $SIVE of the most unknown gems in the photonics space and I personally think this company should be $2B+ today.
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指出 CODA 的毛利率远高于传统防务承包商
@barbell_ideas 是的，我刚又核对了一遍，$CODA 的毛利率在 66.5% 到 67.6% 之间，这对这个行业和传感器业务来说高得离谱。 像 $GD 或 $RTX 这类防务承包商通常只有 10-20% 左右。
英文原文
@barbell_ideas Yeah just double checked $CODA gross margins are 66.5% to 67.6%, which is extremely high for the industry. Defense contractors like $GD or $RTX typically range around 10-20%.
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LASR作为铁束激光引擎供应商，因实战成功获看好，具纯正EDW概念。
$LASR 是唯一一家在美国公开交易的、纯正的能量定向武器（Energy Directed Weapons）概念股。 $LASR 是 Rafael 公司“铁束”（Iron Beam）系统的激光引擎供应商。 市场可能忽略了其与 NLight 之间的两层关联关系。 “铁束”系统今天首次实战部署，并取得了巨大成功。 今天还发布了一篇题为《美国持续探索如何停止用400万美元的导弹去打击3万美元的无人机》的文章： “多年来，激光武器一直是国防工业的新奇工具，总是‘还有五年才成熟’且‘超支十亿美元’。自2025年底以来，这个梦想正式投入运营，像烤面包卷一样在半空中烧毁威胁目标。 其吸引力纯粹是爱因斯坦式的艺术。无需发射需要博士维护的复杂拦截器，‘铁束’只需将100千瓦的高能激光聚焦于目标，直到其结构完整性不复存在。 没有爆炸，没有可追踪的尾气轨迹，神奇的是也没有重新装填时间。只要发电机有那甜美、甜美的柴油，你就拥有无限弹药。” $LASR 是以仅35亿美元市值提供的未来战争形态的纯正敞口。
英文原文
$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock. $LASR is the laser engine for Rafael's Iron Beam. And markets may have missed the the two-hop relation to NLight. The Iron Beam was live for the first time today and wildly successful. An article: "America’s ongoing quest to stop firing $4 million missiles at $30,000 drones" was also put out today: "For years, laser weapons were the novelty tool of the defense industry, always five years away and ten billion dollars over budget. Since late 2025, the dream is officially operational, baking threats in mid-air like dinner rolls. The appeal is pure, unadulterated Einsteinian art. Instead of launching a sophisticated interceptor that requires a PhD to maintain, the Iron Beam focuses a 100kW high-energy laser onto a target until its structural integrity ceases to exist. There is no explosion, no exhaust trail to track, and, magically, no reload time. As long as the generator has that sweet, sweet diesel, you have an infinite magazine." $LASR is the pure play exposure for the future of warfare at a tiny $3.5B MC.
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指出LASR是公开市场唯一的定向能武器纯概念股。
@geokoutalidis 是的，提醒得很及时！市场上还有其他大型参与者，比如 $DRS、$RTX 和 $ESLT。但据我所知，除了 $LASR 之外，公开市场上没有其他股票能纯粹地暴露于定向能武器（Directed Energy Weapons）领域。
英文原文
@geokoutalidis Yep great shout! There's other large players out there, like $DRS or $RTX and $ESLT. But nothing publicly traded really has pure play exposure to energy directed weapons aside from $LASR AFAIK.
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因铁束实战验证，作者在30亿市值时建仓纯定向能武器股LASR。
$LASR 来自“铁束”系统的定向能武器。这很可能是美以 vs 伊朗冲突中最大的受益者和验证者。真主党向以色列发射火箭弹。-> $LASR (Nlight) 的激光引擎在 Rafael 的“铁束”系统中将其击落。亲眼目睹其实战效果简直令人疯狂。鉴于刚刚得到的验证，预计大量国防基金近期将涌入定向能武器领域。特别是通过 HELSI 计划拦截高超音速导弹。虽然 $DRS 或 $RTX 等大型玩家也有相关敞口，但只有 $LASR 是市值 31 亿美元的纯定向能武器股。它恰好也是“铁束”系统的已知关键供应商。我最终在 $LASR 市值 30 亿美元时建立了头寸。
英文原文
$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam. Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict. Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel. -> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down. It's absolutely wild to see it in action. Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now. Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative. There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock. Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam. Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.
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以伊冲突引发市场恐慌，短期避险，若美介入则利好军工石油。
希望你们都用开心果(Pistachios)做了对冲。 以色列现在正在空袭伊朗。 直接受益者： 石油(能源) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, 国防 - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC 避险资产 - 黄金, 白银 航运 - $FRO, $STNG 开心果 这可能只是互相试探(trading blows)的情况： -> 以色列发射一些导弹 -> 伊朗回击一些 -> 被美国击落，以便他们声称进行了报复 然后一切恢复正常。 我的观点是，市场会在周末和隔夜交易时恐慌，但在意识到战争对美国股市有利(bullish)后很快恢复。 但如果美国随后跟进并入侵，那么军事/石油交易逻辑就会回归。
英文原文
Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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建仓$CPSH，看好其作为西方AlSiC龙头在AI散热瓶颈中的潜力及国防业务提供的安全垫。
我已建仓 $CPSH，将其作为美国铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)纯题材的瓶颈环节标的。 他们占据了近期半导体级 AlSiC 市场约 25% 的份额。 他们的客户包括： - 美国海军（战争） - 美国陆军（战争） - 美国能源部（能源/核能） - 美国太空军/ NASA（太空） - 洛克希德·马丁 ( $LMT ) - 雷神 ( $RTX ) - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼 - 通用动力 - 美国海军在最新航母（如杰拉尔德·R·福特号和亚伯拉罕·林肯号）的弹道防护系统中使用 $CPSH 的产品。此外，通过洛克希德·马丁，丹麦海军等舰队也在使用。 - 美国陆军在 40mm 钨弹头和 UH-60 黑鹰直升机中使用 $CPSH 的产品。 - 美国能源部在通过铁路运输核燃料 (SNF) 和高放射性废物时，使用 $CPSH 的产品作为冲击限制器。 - 美国太空军/ NASA 在 GPS 卫星中使用 $CPSH 的产品，且国际空间站的许多电子系统中也有应用。（这还不包括火星车任务） - 洛克希德、雷神、诺斯罗普和通用动力使用 $CPSH 的产品用于导弹热屏蔽组件、雷达系统的 AlSiC 外壳以及热管理材料。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种众所周知的材料复合材料，适用于从太空到国防等众多极端热条件应用。 但随着 $NVDA Rubin 架构在 2027-2028 年扩展至 2300-2500W，由于热翘曲问题，同样的材料可能会被 AI 领域采用。 我的观点是，这种原本用于高超音速导弹到火箭鼻锥等极端热变化处理的微小 TAM（总可服务市场）材料，很可能被用于 AI 部署。 这类似于磷化铟(InP)（电信领域的利基 TAM）随着光子学扩展成为瓶颈，或者东陶(Toto)的精细陶瓷对内存至关重要。 随着 AI 向 Rubin 世代芯片升级，AlSiC（尤其是后处理环节）可能成为一个潜在的瓶颈。 全球大部分 AlSiC 产能仍源自东亚（Denka, Sumitomo, BYD, JFC）。 但 CPS 目前主要的“美国/西方对冲”标的，且 CPSH 表示他们占据了近期可用 AlSiC 市场的大约 25%（CPS Technologies AGM 演示文稿）。 而供应链中这一部分的市值目前仅约 1 亿美元。 他们的资产负债表： 1270 万 -1380 万美元（调整后）现金。几乎零债务。库存约 540 万美元，负债：约 506 万美元（例如 353 万美元用于铝和碳化硅）。 同比营收 880 万美元，增长 +107.29%。 同比净利润增长 20.796 万美元 (+119.94%)。 健康的资产负债表加上美国政府战略利益 + 国防承包商，使得 $CPSH 作为领先的西方 AlSiC 供应链，在 1 亿美元甚至 2 亿美元市值时下行风险较低。 有新合同，例如去年 10 月从领先的半导体公司（可能是 ~Infineon）获得的 1550 万美元订单，增加了营收上行空间的可见性。他们正在扩大产能（由 10 月 25 日的融资支持），这暗示需求更高。 “我们相信我们是 AlSiC 设计和制造的全球领导者……我们的许多产品专为单一客户应用设计，使我们成为这些组件的唯一来源供应商。”（10-K 文件） TLDR：AI 的上行空间完全取决于科技巨头的材料转向。类似于东陶马桶制造商对内存的作用，但 AI 的契合度似乎很强。 但好处是，其现有的美国国防部承包商名单使公司下行风险较低。 这只是我想分享的个人论点。 但个人而言，我已建仓 $CPSH 作为 AlSiC 题材（以及做多美国供应链），因为它可能在 2027-2028 年 AI 扩展至 2000W+ 时，在解决热翘曲方面发挥重要作用。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint. They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market. Their customers: - U.S. Navy (War) - U.S. Army (War) - U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear) - U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space) - Lockheed Martin ( $LMT ) - Raytheon ( $RTX ) - Northrop Grumman - General Dynamics - The U.S. Navy uses $CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed. - US Army uses $CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters. - The US Dpt of Energy uses $CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail. - U.S. Space Force / NASA uses $CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions) - Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses $CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials. AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense. But as architectures from $NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage. My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments. This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory. AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips. Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC). But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation). And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now. Their balance sheet: $12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide) Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up +107.29%. Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K (+119.94%). Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest + Defense Contractors gives $CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain. There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand. "We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings) TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong. But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk. This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share. But personally I've taken positions in $CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W+.
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美政府警告撤离伊朗，推荐布局战争相关概念股。
紧急：美国政府：“立即离开伊朗”。 这暗示美国将直接干预。 上一次事件涉及GBU-57A/B钻地弹(MOPs)。 以下是如何从美国入侵伊朗中获利。 战争部门股票： $OSS - 边缘AI(Edge AI) $AVAV - 无人机打击 $BA, $NOC, $RTX - 钻地弹 $KTOS - 用于吸引敌方火力、干扰雷达并引导F-35和B-21的瓦尔基里无人机 这很简单。尤其是在美国入侵委内瑞拉之后。 市场可能会有很大波动，但最大的受益者是纯战争垂直领域的股票。
英文原文
Urgent: US Government: “Leave Iran Now”. This implies direct US intervention. The last event was with GBU-57A/B MOPs. Here’s how to profit off US invading Iran. Department of War stocks: $OSS - Edge AI $AVAV - Drone Strikes $BA, $NOC, $RTX - Bunker Bombs $KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s It’s pretty simple. Especially following US invasion of Venezuela. There’s likely a lot of market volatility but the largest beneficiaries are pure play War verticals.
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分析美侵委局势下，重油、氮肥及海军装备供应链的受益标的。
美国现已入侵委内瑞拉。 大家可能都在想同一个问题： 如何从这一局势中获利？ 1. 重质原油(Heavy Sour)、氨(Ammonia)和氮肥(Nitrogen Fertilizers)供应中断（$CF, $CVE）。 这些是委内瑞拉最大的出口产品。 大多数人会购买泛石油ETF或轻质甜原油(light sweet crude)生产商。这效率低下，因为轻质原油在复杂炼厂中并非重质原油的完美替代品。如果加勒比海的氨供应受阻，全球氮价将飙升。最大受益者将是使用廉价美国天然气且不依赖加勒比海运航线的美国本土生产商。 2. 劣质原油加工(Dirty Crude Processing)（$VLO）——如果竞争对手缺乏委内瑞拉原油，Valero从多元化来源获取重质原油的能力（及其对柴油利润率的杠杆作用）使其具备韧性。 3. 海军作战（$LDOS）——当散户投资者购买洛克希德·马丁(F-35)时，加勒比海地区的行动侧重于海上监视、作战和自主巡逻，以在不危及美国人员的情况下执行封锁。像Leidos这样的公司提供此类海军技术。 4. 从$AVAV到$HII和$LHX的国防和航空航天领域也受益。 - $AVAV最近推出了专为海上行动设计的Red Dragon和更新版Switchblade 600变体 - $LHX提供将无人机($AVAV)与舰船($HII)及喷气式飞机($BA)连接的传感器和通信设备。 - 封锁需要大量的海上监视和海军资产，这有利于造船商($HII) 5. 近期军事行动的直接供应商： - 来自$BA的F/A-18E/F超级大黄蜂（对加拉加斯进行精确打击） - 来自$BA的B-1B枪骑兵 - UAS（无人机），MQ-9收割者 - $RTX（MTS-B传感器），$HON霍尼韦尔提供发动机 - 战斧巡航导弹(TLAM)，$RTX 目前为止： $AVAV - 5.91%+ $BA - 4.91% $LHX - 3.72% $CF - 3.61%+ $CVE - 3.61%+ $HII - +2.85% $RTX - 2.1% $VLO - 1.55%+ $LDOS - 1.7%+ $HON - .4%+
英文原文
US has now invaded Venezuela. Everyone is probably wondering the same thing: How do you profit off the situation? 1. Heavy Sour, Ammonia, and Nitrogen Fertilizers disruption ( $CF , $CVE). These are Venezuela's biggest exports. Most people will buy generic oil ETFs or light sweet crude producers. This is inefficient because light oil is not a perfect substitute for heavy oil in complex refineries. If Caribbean ammonia is stranded, the global price of nitrogen spikes. The biggest beneficiary is a US-domestic producer that uses cheap US natural gas and doesn't rely on Caribbean shipping lanes 2. Dirty Crude Processing ( $VLO ) - If competitors are starved of Venezuelan oil, Valero’s ability to source heavy crude from diverse locations (and its leverage to diesel margins) makes it resilient. 3. Naval Warfare ( $LDOS) - While retail investors buy Lockheed Martin (F-35s), the operations in the Caribbean focuses on maritime surveillance, warfare, and autonomous patrolling to enforce blockades without risking US personnel. Companies like Leidos provide these tpyes of naval tech. 4. Defense and aerospace from $AVAV to $HII and $LHX also benefit. - $AVAV recently unveiled the Red Dragon and updated Switchblade 600 variants specifically for maritime operations - $LHX provides the sensors and communications gear that link the drones ($AVAV) to the ships ($HII) and the jets ($BA). - A blockade requires significant maritime surveillance and naval assets, which benefits shipbuilders ( $HII ) 5. Direct Suppliers of recent military operation: - F/A-18E/F Super Hornet from $BA (Precision strikes on Caracas) - B-1B Lancer from $BA - UAS (Drone), MQ-9 Reaper - $RTX (MTS-B Sensors), $HON Honeywell for the Engine - Tomahawk (TLAM), $RTX So far: $AVAV - 5.91%+ $BA - 4.91% $LHX - 3.72% $CF - 3.61%+ $CVE - 3.61%+ $HII - +2.85% $RTX - 2.1% $VLO - 1.55%+ $LDOS - 1.7%+ $HON - .4%+