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主张与其烧昂贵导弹，不如更多投入定向能武器。
或者……与其把几十亿美元花在“更便宜的导弹”上。 毕竟现在用 300 到 400 万美元的爱国者导弹去打便宜无人机，根本不奏效。 我们是不是该更多研究并部署像 $LASR 和 HPM 这样的定向能武器？ 用 HEL（高能激光）的话： 它就是一束光……砰砰。每发 3.5 美元。 用 HPM（高功率微波）的话——它是一道能量锥，用来打无人机蜂群。 也许每次脉冲 0.05 美元左右？弹药基本等于无限。 虽然 $LMT 和 $RTX 也在做这些，但感觉我们只是一直在买昂贵导弹去给它们送钱。 如果把原本花在导弹上的数十亿美元，转去资助这类无限弹药的新技术…… 也许早就能把定向能武器做得更成熟了（比如解决驻留时间、天气变化、射程、功率这些问题）。 在伊朗这种延长冲突里，用几十亿美元的导弹去打便宜无人机，显然不可持续。
英文原文
Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles". Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working. We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM? With HEL (High Energy Lasers): It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot. With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms. Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite. Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point. More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles... Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power). Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.
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认为 NOC、LMT 已提前计入冲突，油价也早已先跑，后续仍可能继续上涨。
$NOC、$LMT 在冲突发生前就已经先跑了，因为市场大体上早就预期到伊朗这件事。Lockheed 年初至今涨了 23%，即使回落后也已经非常夸张。 油价也提前交易过了，但伊朗把一切都炸开的二阶、三阶影响远超预期。 所以这些标的还在继续走强，因为如果局势进一步升级，前面可能会有一场巨大的危机。
英文原文
$NOC, $LMT already frontran ahead of conflict since Iran was largely expected. Lockheed up 23% YTD is enormous already, even after the drop. Oil was frontran as well, but the third order effects of Iran blowing everything up was way beyond expectations. So those kept going up, since there's a possibility of a massive crisis ahead if things escalate even more.
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认为 SPY 跌了、军工和能源受益，自己会比 Ackman 表现更好。
天啊……$SPY 指数年初至今已经接近跌 5% 了。Pershing Square 的 NAV 也年初至今跌了将近 20%。 这对更广泛市场来说，绝对是开年以来最差的表现之一。 好消息呢？ $CVX 和 $LMT，石油和战争行业的高管和公司都很开心，因为他们给普通人带来了“正能量”和“快乐”。 而且…… 如果你的组合没有跌 20%，那你就是在跑赢 Bill Ackman。
英文原文
Holy sht… $SPY index down close to -5% YTD. Pershing Square NAV down almost -20% YTD. One of the worst starts to the year for the broader market. On the bright side? $CVX and $LMT, Oil and War executives and companies that bring positivity and joy to the common people are happy. And… If your portfolio is not down -20% you’re outperforming Bill Ackman.
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强调独立研究的重要性，指出恐惧驱动短期价格，但经营收入驱动长期价格。
提醒一下：当整个社区都在恐慌发帖讨论内存股名字的时候。从$EWY（SK Hynix、Samsung）、$MU和$SNDK。在伊朗冲突初期。说“Kospi和内存股会因氦气或LNG下跌30-40%”。我是全程保持看多的少数分析师之一。因为我实际上做了研究来支持我关于LNG、原油和氦气几乎没有实质性影响的观点。伊朗冲突仍在进行中，关于潜在油价飙升仍有很多未知因素：但恐惧和煽动性标题驱动短期价格。经营收入驱动长期价格。只要知道从方向上看，内存对AI建设至关重要。美国不会让他们的AI建设因中东冲突而停滞，并在AI——这个历史上最变革性的技术——上失去对中国的优势。
英文原文
Just a reminder: While the entire community was doomposting about memory names. From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK. during the initial Iran conflict. Sayin “Kospi and memory names would drop 30-40% because of Helium or LNG.” I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time. As I actually did the research to back up my claims about little material disruption of LNG, Crude, and Helium. The Iran conflict is still ongoing, and there’s a lot of unknowns still regarding potential oil spikes: But fear and sensational headlines drive short term prices. Operating income drives long term prices. Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout. United Stares wont let their buildout stall, and lose China, in AI - the most transformative technology in history. Over a Middle East conflict.
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。
关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。
英文原文
The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.
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机构已提前交易地缘风险，高位追涨石油国防并卖出超跌资产可能是错误。
以下是我对市场的解读： 美国/以色列的政权更迭+对伊朗的打击已被机构提前交易（front-run）。 在历史高位买入国防/石油并卖出风险资产可能是一个错误，因为这本该在一个月前完成。 数据极其异常： 来自 $CVX、$XOM 和 $XLE 的石油/能源板块年初至今（YTD）上涨 22-26%。 大型国防承包商从 $NOC 到 $LMT 年初至今也增长了 27-36%。 大部分涨幅发生在1月下旬，当时情报报告称针对政权更迭的伊朗打击迫在眉睫。 作为参考： - $LMT 一年回报率为 46.12%。洛克希德仅在最近一到两个月内就获得了大部分收益（32.39%）。 这可能与1万亿美元的国防预算有关，但最大的信号是 $CVX、$XLE 和原油因预期中东局势中断而大幅上涨。 伊朗局势与委内瑞拉完全不同，当时所有人都措手不及。 在委内瑞拉事件中，交易者和机构处于同等地位，像 Gold Reserve 这样的公司当日跳空上涨 100%。 但在伊朗事件中，这可能是历史上最“预告”充分的攻击之一，大多数机构已经重新配置完毕（因此高贝塔资产大幅抛售，石油/国防在过去一个月上涨）。 因此，在现有“高风险”资产已经处于低位时卖出，转而配置到已被机构提前交易、经历异常一个月20%+涨幅后处于历史高位的石油和其他国防承包商，可能是一个错误。 预计大多数散户会这样做，并在流动性不足的时段引发波动（但在这种情况下，反向操作可能会带来更高回报） 我可能错了，但就我个人而言，我已在事件发生前用国防和石油进行了对冲。 我的许多对冲收益异常丰厚，我计划将这些资金轮动到高贝塔资产发生的任何主要抛售中。 我的思路是，机构很可能也会这样做。 TLDR：在高风险资产已经抛售之后，将其轮动到已被机构提前交易且处于历史高位的石油/国防，可能不是最好的主意。
英文原文
Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.
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以伊冲突引发市场恐慌，短期避险，若美介入则利好军工石油。
希望你们都用开心果(Pistachios)做了对冲。 以色列现在正在空袭伊朗。 直接受益者： 石油(能源) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, 国防 - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC 避险资产 - 黄金, 白银 航运 - $FRO, $STNG 开心果 这可能只是互相试探(trading blows)的情况： -> 以色列发射一些导弹 -> 伊朗回击一些 -> 被美国击落，以便他们声称进行了报复 然后一切恢复正常。 我的观点是，市场会在周末和隔夜交易时恐慌，但在意识到战争对美国股市有利(bullish)后很快恢复。 但如果美国随后跟进并入侵，那么军事/石油交易逻辑就会回归。
英文原文
Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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建仓$CPSH，看好其作为西方AlSiC龙头在AI散热瓶颈中的潜力及国防业务提供的安全垫。
我已建仓 $CPSH，将其作为美国铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)纯题材的瓶颈环节标的。 他们占据了近期半导体级 AlSiC 市场约 25% 的份额。 他们的客户包括： - 美国海军（战争） - 美国陆军（战争） - 美国能源部（能源/核能） - 美国太空军/ NASA（太空） - 洛克希德·马丁 ( $LMT ) - 雷神 ( $RTX ) - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼 - 通用动力 - 美国海军在最新航母（如杰拉尔德·R·福特号和亚伯拉罕·林肯号）的弹道防护系统中使用 $CPSH 的产品。此外，通过洛克希德·马丁，丹麦海军等舰队也在使用。 - 美国陆军在 40mm 钨弹头和 UH-60 黑鹰直升机中使用 $CPSH 的产品。 - 美国能源部在通过铁路运输核燃料 (SNF) 和高放射性废物时，使用 $CPSH 的产品作为冲击限制器。 - 美国太空军/ NASA 在 GPS 卫星中使用 $CPSH 的产品，且国际空间站的许多电子系统中也有应用。（这还不包括火星车任务） - 洛克希德、雷神、诺斯罗普和通用动力使用 $CPSH 的产品用于导弹热屏蔽组件、雷达系统的 AlSiC 外壳以及热管理材料。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种众所周知的材料复合材料，适用于从太空到国防等众多极端热条件应用。 但随着 $NVDA Rubin 架构在 2027-2028 年扩展至 2300-2500W，由于热翘曲问题，同样的材料可能会被 AI 领域采用。 我的观点是，这种原本用于高超音速导弹到火箭鼻锥等极端热变化处理的微小 TAM（总可服务市场）材料，很可能被用于 AI 部署。 这类似于磷化铟(InP)（电信领域的利基 TAM）随着光子学扩展成为瓶颈，或者东陶(Toto)的精细陶瓷对内存至关重要。 随着 AI 向 Rubin 世代芯片升级，AlSiC（尤其是后处理环节）可能成为一个潜在的瓶颈。 全球大部分 AlSiC 产能仍源自东亚（Denka, Sumitomo, BYD, JFC）。 但 CPS 目前主要的“美国/西方对冲”标的，且 CPSH 表示他们占据了近期可用 AlSiC 市场的大约 25%（CPS Technologies AGM 演示文稿）。 而供应链中这一部分的市值目前仅约 1 亿美元。 他们的资产负债表： 1270 万 -1380 万美元（调整后）现金。几乎零债务。库存约 540 万美元，负债：约 506 万美元（例如 353 万美元用于铝和碳化硅）。 同比营收 880 万美元，增长 +107.29%。 同比净利润增长 20.796 万美元 (+119.94%)。 健康的资产负债表加上美国政府战略利益 + 国防承包商，使得 $CPSH 作为领先的西方 AlSiC 供应链，在 1 亿美元甚至 2 亿美元市值时下行风险较低。 有新合同，例如去年 10 月从领先的半导体公司（可能是 ~Infineon）获得的 1550 万美元订单，增加了营收上行空间的可见性。他们正在扩大产能（由 10 月 25 日的融资支持），这暗示需求更高。 “我们相信我们是 AlSiC 设计和制造的全球领导者……我们的许多产品专为单一客户应用设计，使我们成为这些组件的唯一来源供应商。”（10-K 文件） TLDR：AI 的上行空间完全取决于科技巨头的材料转向。类似于东陶马桶制造商对内存的作用，但 AI 的契合度似乎很强。 但好处是，其现有的美国国防部承包商名单使公司下行风险较低。 这只是我想分享的个人论点。 但个人而言，我已建仓 $CPSH 作为 AlSiC 题材（以及做多美国供应链），因为它可能在 2027-2028 年 AI 扩展至 2000W+ 时，在解决热翘曲方面发挥重要作用。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint. They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market. Their customers: - U.S. Navy (War) - U.S. Army (War) - U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear) - U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space) - Lockheed Martin ( $LMT ) - Raytheon ( $RTX ) - Northrop Grumman - General Dynamics - The U.S. Navy uses $CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed. - US Army uses $CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters. - The US Dpt of Energy uses $CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail. - U.S. Space Force / NASA uses $CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions) - Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses $CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials. AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense. But as architectures from $NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage. My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments. This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory. AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips. Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC). But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation). And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now. Their balance sheet: $12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide) Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up +107.29%. Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K (+119.94%). Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest + Defense Contractors gives $CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain. There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand. "We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings) TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong. But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk. This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share. But personally I've taken positions in $CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W+.
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分析$FEIM因太空业务瓶颈受益，虽涨幅巨大但属小众领域。
鉴于其太空业务敞口，我相信你会喜欢 $FEIM。 今年它已经上涨了 241%，所以我相信市场已经开始慢慢意识到瓶颈所在。 它们被 NASA 和 $LMT 大量使用。我猜测它们也被用于 SpaceX 的 Starshield，作为原子钟和时间源，以防 GPS 被干扰或摧毁。 但在我看来，这仍然是一个非常小众的领域。
英文原文
I'm sure you would like $FEIM given its space exposure. It's already up 241% this year so I'm sure markets have slowly started to realize the bottleneck They're heavily used for Nasa, $LMT. And my guess was SpaceX's Starshield for atomic clocks and time if GPS is jammed/destroyed. But again very niche imo.
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公布隐性受益股，避免散户在股价大涨后跟风买入。
@MYUNGJOONKIM2 没必要为了不让机构抢跑散户而保守秘密——-> 散户往往在一个月后才知道，此时股价已大幅上涨。我想趁那些信息较少的人还在买入 $LMT 或石油 ETF 时，直接公布主要的隐性受益者。
英文原文
@MYUNGJOONKIM2 No point of keeping it a secret just to let institutions front run retail investors -> retail finds out a month later after it's already up a lot. Thought I'd just publish main hidden beneficiaries while the less informed are probably buying $LMT or Oil ETFs