$AVAV
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概述自己的打法：先识别新兴赛道，再沿整条供应链做多，同时强调风控和透明。
如果你现在还不了解我的风格： 我会先识别即将起来的赛道（光子学、存储、无人机），然后沿着整条供应链去做多。 当然，我也不是每次都对。 $AVAV 和无人机板块是我今年除 $RDDT 外亏得最多的（不过 $OSS 最后涨了 60%+）。 我仍然从基本面上相信像 $AIRO、$LPTH 等公司长期都非常扎实。（$AIRO 现在仍然涨了大约 15%，但它曾经 70%+ 的涨幅大部分都没了，Draganfly 跌得更多。） 而且光看 $SNDK 这种超级周期，就会产生一种非常不现实的预期，觉得每个月都能涨 100%。 我在那个板块里识别的主要催化，是委内瑞拉入侵带来的隐蔽无人机 + 前沿防御合同 / 分包商需求。 我也预期后续会有资金继续流入这个板块。 不过，在格陵兰协议那一段，我提过自己已经开始降风险了（大多数防务承包商都跌了），但我还是保留了像 $AVAV 这种较小仓位。 SCAR 项目输给其他公司，比如 $AVAV，这也是个更大的意外，我亏得更多。 不幸的是，伊朗战争这次主要冲击的是像 L3 Harris、$NOC 这种更大的防务承包商，以及像 Anduril 这样的私营公司，还有一些定向能供应商，比如 $LASR。 所以无人机公司并没有多少顺风修复。 尽管如此，我确实知道怎么止损。 但我还是经常被人喷，说“看你今年早些时候喜欢过的 X 股票”。 在这件事上我很透明：$IREN 社区里某些高管，在他们的粉丝因为 $BKKT 或 $ASST 稀释后亏掉 90% 之后，会把所有帖子都删掉。 我挑的多数股票基本面都非常扎实，所以从最初 thesis 出来以后，它们要么守住了自己的价位。 而且我也会把风险等级 / 信念等级一起写出来（风险高的当然下行也更大）。 我比那些只会发热评的人更有 skin in the game。 所以如果我的 thesis 错了，我自己也会亏钱（这种例子还有很多，像 $AVAV 这种就是无穷无尽的亏损）。 但我会把所有东西都留着，让你们自己看事情最后怎么演变。
英文原文
If you don't know my style by now: I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain. I'm not always right, though. $AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ). I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more) And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month. The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors. And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector. However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV. SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more. Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR. So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies. That being said, I do know how to cut losses. But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year". I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution. Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis. And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside). I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes. So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills like this, just endless losses on $AVAV). But I leave everything up so you can see how things play out.
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说自己在无人机股上亏了六位数，已经减仓转向光子学。
抱歉听到这个，像 $AVAV 和 $DPRO 这种无人机股票是我亏得最惨的，我在这上面实打实亏了六位数。 我之前发过自己已经在格陵兰和平协议之后止损了这些票，$AVAV 最近又因为 SCAR 项目失利继续受挫。 然后我就把仓位转去光子学了。 这次伊朗战争更多打击的是更大的军工承包商，而不是像委内瑞拉那次那样主要打击无人机公司。 我在 X 上发得很多，但并不是每条都能显示给所有关注者。
英文原文
Sorry to hear, drone stocks like $AVAV and $DPRO were my biggest losers and I lost solid 6 fig on that. I posted earlier I cut my losses on them since Greenland peace deal, $AVAV recently on the Scar program loss. And rotated to photonics. The Iran war tended to be a lot of the larger military contractors this time around, compared to drone companies used in a Venezuela. I post a lot on X, and not everything shows up to followers unfortunately.
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说自己在 AVAV 上亏了六位数并转向光子学。
@bennybigbull 没有，已经卖掉了 $AVAV，还亏了六位数，然后转去光子学了。
英文原文
@bennybigbull Nope, sold for solid 6 figure loss on $AVAV and rotated to photonics.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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分析$CODA稳健基本面，伊朗布雷事件为声纳探测板块带来重大利好。
也不尽然，$CODA 看起来基本面非常稳健。现金储备充足，净收入为正，而且对于这个行业+传感器来说利润率极高。如果说有什么的话，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡(Strait)布雷刚刚给声纳/探测类股票（如$CODA和$KRKNF）带来了十年来最大的利好。委内瑞拉的战争更多聚焦于无人机，如$AVAV，而且从未真正涉及水下领域。所以这可能是第一次让所有人看到这些应用的机会+导致更多资金流入该板块，尽管整体市场规模(TAM)并没有真正扩大太多。
英文原文
Not exactly, $CODA looks very fundamentally sound. High cash balance, net income positive, and extremely high margins for the sector + sensors. If anything, Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade. Warfare in Venezulea focused more on drones like $AVAV and never really went underwater. So this is probably one of the first times everyone sees the applications now + leads to more sector inflows, even if TAM didn't exactly increase too much.
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以伊冲突引发市场恐慌，短期避险，若美介入则利好军工石油。
希望你们都用开心果(Pistachios)做了对冲。 以色列现在正在空袭伊朗。 直接受益者： 石油(能源) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, 国防 - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC 避险资产 - 黄金, 白银 航运 - $FRO, $STNG 开心果 这可能只是互相试探(trading blows)的情况： -> 以色列发射一些导弹 -> 伊朗回击一些 -> 被美国击落，以便他们声称进行了报复 然后一切恢复正常。 我的观点是，市场会在周末和隔夜交易时恐慌，但在意识到战争对美国股市有利(bullish)后很快恢复。 但如果美国随后跟进并入侵，那么军事/石油交易逻辑就会回归。
英文原文
Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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AVAV和CVX作为战争地缘政治对冲，战时看涨，和平时可能跑输。
$AVAV 和石油股如 $CVX 是战争的对冲工具。如果美国与伊朗最终开战（正如委内瑞拉突然入侵所示，可能随时发生），这两个板块可能会上涨。如果没打起来，那么其他板块可能会表现更好，而国防股可能会表现不佳。这是一种地缘政治对冲，所以我认为确实如此。
英文原文
$AVAV and Oil like $CVX are hedges for war. If US and Iran end up fighting (can be anytime as seen with the sudden invasion of Venezulea) those two sectors would likely go up. If they don’t, then other sectors would likely outperform and defense might underperform. This is a geopolitical hedge so yes IMO.
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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分析美伊冲突下开心果供应链垄断及石油国防股对冲机会
如果美国入侵伊朗，最有趣的受益者将是：开心果。绝非玩笑。你知道美国（加州）和伊朗在开心果生产上形成了虚拟双头垄断吗？这类似于 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的情况，两者控制了全球约70-80%的供应。如果加州成为垄断者，$JBSS 等公司可能会因开心果价格上涨而受益。不幸的是，没有开心果期货，所以我没有建立任何头寸，但这有趣的事实让我觉得好笑，所以想分享出来。我稍后会写一篇关于更细微的二阶效应和潜在做多标的的文章。美国打击似乎很可能，因此标准的石油股如 $CVX 或 $XLS 以及国防股如 $AVAV 或 $ITA 可能是不错的做多/对冲选择。
英文原文
The funniest beneficary if US invades Iran was: Pistachios. Not even joking. Did you know US (California) and Iran operate a virtual duopoly in pistachio production? This is the $AXTI InP situation as the two control ~70-80% of the world’s supply. Companies like $JBSS might benefit from Pistachio prices going up (if California becomes a monopoly) Unfortunately there’s no Pistachio Futures, so I’m not taking any positions but I just found this fun fact amusing, so wanted to share. I’ll do another writeup on more nuanced second order effects and potential longs soon. US strikes seem likely so standard oil like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here.
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虽对AVAV看跌且部分持仓亏损，但靠多样化实现年初至今正收益。
@burlingtononta 我对 $AVAV 持看跌观点。我有30多个持仓，遗憾的是并非所有都是盈利的。但我的年初至今(YTD)收益是正的，因为我正确的次数多于错误的，这正是投资组合多样化的意义所在。
英文原文
@burlingtononta I’m down on $AVAV. I have 30+ positions, not everything is green sadly. But I’m up YTD because I’m more right than wrong and that’s the point of portfolio diversification.
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LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
英文原文
$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
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披萨订单作为算法信号，反映委内瑞拉局势对AVAV和NOC的影响。
不过这是真实的流量，因为恶搞者确实会下大量披萨订单，并造成等待自取人群的积压。只是我觉得没人试过，毕竟浪费披萨。但对于 $AVAV 到 $NOC 而言，披萨订单是算法用于委内瑞拉的合法信号。
英文原文
It's live traffic though since a troll would be actually placing a lot of Pizza orders + creating backlog from people waiting for pickup. Just dont think people have tried since it's a waste of Pizza. But for $AVAV to $NOC, Pizza orders are a legitimate signal algos used for Venezuela.
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列举国防股标的，认为RKLB短期高估但长期首选。
$OSS、$AIRO、$DPRO、$LPTH（勉强算）是国防股。忘了在上面加上 $AVAV，但我会把它加在 $259 的位置。 由于与格陵兰达成和平协议，近期没有真正的军事催化剂。但随着新的伊朗紧张局势，它们可能会再次受到关注。 话虽如此，我觉得 $RKLB 目前有点被高估，但长期来看它是我首选的标的。
英文原文
$OSS, $AIRO, $DPRO, $LPTH (sorta) are defense stocks. Forgot to include $AVAV up there but I’d add that in at $259. There was peace with Greenland so no really military catalysts recently. But they might pick up again with new Iran tensions. That being said just feel like $RKLB is a tad overvalued right now but long term it’s my favorite pick
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复盘上月提及的AIRO、LPTH和AVAV表现，重申其投资逻辑。
大家都在走上路。所以 $VPG 是那个强力核心。说正经的，$AIRO、$LPTH 和 $AVAV 都是上个月提到的。$AIRO 自提及以来上涨了 24.9%。我进行了加仓摊平成本，所以在回调后略微盈利/持平。这是我对 $ONDS 的补涨操作，投资逻辑没有改变。$LPTH 下跌了几个百分点，作为锗(Germanium)瓶颈环节的修复方案。基本面没有发生严重的恶化。这是美国锗供应链从向中国转向黑钻(Black Diamond)的长期战略。短期2-3周的价格波动不重要。$AVAV 上涨了，但我是在320多美元时讨论的它。$RKLB 是一家市值450亿美元以上的发射公司，而 $AVAV 凭借数十亿美元的国防合同，年增长率达到三位数。所以在130-140亿美元市值时，我认为这是一个很好的长线标的。
英文原文
They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry. Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month. $AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed. $LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much. $AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long
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看好AVAV，但政府停摆在即，建议暂缓建仓。
@__visionxry__ 是的，我非常看好 $AVAV。话虽如此，明天就要发生政府停摆(government shutdown)了，所以对于政府承包商来说，今天可能不是最佳的建仓时机。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yeah I really like $AVAV. That being said there’s a government shutdown tomorrow so maybe not the best timing today for government contractors
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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作者认为$AVAV因误读合同变更而遭错杀，已逆势加仓。
我的意思是，这相当于国防领域的$CRDO亚马逊连线事件。看看$AVAV： -> 将合同从研发型重新谈判为长期批量合同。 -> 媒体：“噢，不，那个花哨的Scar项目被暂停了” -> 毫无理由地暴跌17%。 当然由你决定，我个人认为这次抛售很愚蠢，所以加仓了。
英文原文
I mean this is the $CRDO Amazon wire incident equivalent. But in the Defense sector. Be $AVAV: -> Renegotiates contract from R&D type to long term volume contract. -> Media: "Oh no the fancy Scar program got halted" -> Sells off 17% for no reason. up to you though, I personally added since I thought this selloff was stupid.
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$AVAV获14亿合同，转固定价格模式被市场误解
@victor_privin $AVAV 在过去4个月中获得了14亿美元以上的合同。这是一次合同重新谈判（可能长期更有利）。其他交易安排(OTA)协议很多时候是为了原型设计和研发。转向固定价格(FFP)合同 = 锁定批量价格。完全被误解了
英文原文
@victor_privin $AVAV secured $1.4B+ in contracts in the past 4 months. This is a contract renegotiation (possibly better long term). OTA agreements a lot of times is for prototyping and R&D. Moving to an FFP contract = locking in price for volume. Completely misunderstood
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澄清SCAR项目未取消，因误读导致股价大跌，博主趁机加仓$AVAV。
我在$AVAV下跌16%时加仓了。 市场对SCAR项目新闻做出了错误反应。 - 市场认为SCAR项目被取消，因此抛售超15%。 - 事实并非如此。在8-K监管文件中，他们表示将“继续为SCAR项目提供能力和产品”。 - 这是合同重新谈判，并非取消。 此外，这只是一份1.75亿美元的远期营收合同。$AVAV的皇冠明珠是通过Replicator计划部署的Switchblade无人机。 所以我个人今天抄底买入。
英文原文
I’ve added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip. Markets made a mistake with regarding the Scar program news. - Markets thought SCAR program was canceled hence 15%+ selloff. - It’s not. In the 8-K regulatory filings they said they would “continue providing capabilities and products for the SCAR program.” - This was contract re-negotiation. Not cancelled. Also this was a small $175m fw revenue contract. $AVAV crown jewel is Switchblade via Replicator So I personally ended up buying the dip today.
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建议逢低买入AVAV，认为市场对其合同重谈的恐慌被夸大。
@__visionxry__ 恕我直言，$AVAV 在下跌 15% 后是极佳的逢低买入机会。其主要收入来自价值超 10 亿美元的“弹簧刀”复制器（Switchblade Replicator）项目。如果市场因一份正在重新谈判的 1.75 亿美元合同而恐慌，那纯粹是在戏弄投资者。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ IMO $AVAV is a great dip buy on the 15% drop. Main revenue is $1B+ switchblade replicator. Markets are trolling if they’re panicking over a $175m contract that’s getting renegotiated.
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建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.
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建仓$DPRO，视其为无人机战争基础设施，类比早期$RKLB，具高增长潜力。
我建仓了少量 $DPRO（市值2.4亿美元）。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商，Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB（Relativity Space）。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元（13倍），我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场（和我自己）之前忽略的点： Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商，而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》（NDAA）禁止大疆（DJI，曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额）后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河：嵌入式生产（embedded production）。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字，却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军（2025年9月）的合同不仅仅是交付无人机；而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂（Micro-Factories）。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部（Dept. of War）的体系中，创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是：他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系（作为分包商，Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同），以及 US-CAD 项目（双方均受益，如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金）。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长，$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面： -> 瑞典等欧洲国家（2026年）使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance（大型国防承包商） -> 美国战争部（美国陆军） 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金（健康的资产负债表），仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率（p/s）。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注，因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施（就像早期的 $RKLB），Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉，认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施（特别是 Replicator 项目，且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的）。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎（说服其他用户花了一些功夫），所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢，想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR：在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸，因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施（就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空），具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段，随着产能建设的收入确认，也存在大量风险。
英文原文
I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.
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特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
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分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。
$AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准，并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。（因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功） $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator)，具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章，但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB，上行空间非常具有投机性。
英文原文
$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.
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作者认为$ONDS估值过高，建议关注其他估值更低的无人机股。
个人而言，我觉得与其他无人机公司相比，$ONDS 的定价偏高。 我持有 $AVAV、$DPRO、$KTOS 和 $AIRO 以获取无人机领域的敞口。 （这只是我凭记忆随口一说，别太当真）Ondas 目前的前瞻性企业价值/收入倍数（Forward EV/revenue multiples）约为 28 倍以上。即使是 AVAV，作为“复制者”（Replicator）项目的一部分，其倍数也仅为 8-9 倍。 Airo 则是针对“复制者 2.0”的反无人机（Counter UAV）系统。 当我买入 $AIRO 时，其前瞻性市销率（Forward P/S）约为 2.5 倍（现在可能更高，也许是 3-4 倍）。 甚至 $DPRO 根据一些收入计算，可能也只有 2.8 倍左右。 所以在我看来，其他无人机公司有更高的上行空间。
英文原文
Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program. Airo was for counter UAV for replicator 2. When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s (probably higher now, maybe 3-4's). Even $DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations. So IMO higher upside with other drone companies.
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格陵兰关税引发恐慌，建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。
美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌： $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法： 第一层：供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件（德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片）。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌，美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层：美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性，因为从根本上说，争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲（莱茵金属、萨博）国防股正在反弹，而美国（如 $ONDS）遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌，但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。（特朗普的事你无法预知）。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌，如果发生无差别抛售，这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层：美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲（特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司）的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中，垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌，像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙，因为市场认为它们仍然有风险，因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口（ASML 光刻、蔡司光学）来运营。 然而，这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全，这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败（例如英特尔的国家安全豁免）的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免： 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀，因为它们被视为“风险资产”，通常被抛售最多，除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低，欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而，如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开，这可能是极好的机会。 方向上，市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%，有些甚至翻正。
英文原文
US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.
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看好自杀式无人机板块，认为市值将追随技术演进。
@Nerd_0ne 从 $AVAV 到 $AIRO 的自杀式无人机真的酷毙了。我认为市值最终会跟随技术路线，就像 $RKLB 那样！
英文原文
@Nerd_0ne Kamikaze drones from $AVAV to $AIRO are really cool. I think the marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB!
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分析UMAC基本面优势，对比AIRO，认为两者均有上行空间。
很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO，但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大，我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO，但各有所好！
英文原文
Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!
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美政府警告撤离伊朗，推荐布局战争相关概念股。
紧急：美国政府：“立即离开伊朗”。 这暗示美国将直接干预。 上一次事件涉及GBU-57A/B钻地弹(MOPs)。 以下是如何从美国入侵伊朗中获利。 战争部门股票： $OSS - 边缘AI(Edge AI) $AVAV - 无人机打击 $BA, $NOC, $RTX - 钻地弹 $KTOS - 用于吸引敌方火力、干扰雷达并引导F-35和B-21的瓦尔基里无人机 这很简单。尤其是在美国入侵委内瑞拉之后。 市场可能会有很大波动，但最大的受益者是纯战争垂直领域的股票。
英文原文
Urgent: US Government: “Leave Iran Now”. This implies direct US intervention. The last event was with GBU-57A/B MOPs. Here’s how to profit off US invading Iran. Department of War stocks: $OSS - Edge AI $AVAV - Drone Strikes $BA, $NOC, $RTX - Bunker Bombs $KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s It’s pretty simple. Especially following US invasion of Venezuela. There’s likely a lot of market volatility but the largest beneficiaries are pure play War verticals.
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博主建仓$OSS，认为其作为AI军事承包商被低估，毛利率高且获实战验证。
为什么我所有的选股本周都涨了约60%？$OSS https://t.co/VDO58928xd （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 我已在 $OSS 建立头寸。 我通常从不这么说，但这次令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这为 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的做多机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因高需求而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为证明其在美国军队中实际使用的证据： $OSS P-8 海神(Poseidon)在委内瑞拉： - 飞行跟踪数据证实，来自第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “捕获小组”： - 捕获领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团(直升机)。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境构建边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗跟踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇(无人机船)封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军“第59特遣队”（及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。针对一家市值1.55亿美元的小盘股。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 这样的商品股（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或商品销售商（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的防御AI纯标的，专注于无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，因此我建立了头寸。
英文原文
Why are all my picks up like 60% this week $OSS https://t.co/VDO58928xd