· 个股论点

建仓$DPRO,视其为无人机战争基础设施,类比早期$RKLB,具高增长潜力。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

我建仓了少量 $DPRO(市值2.4亿美元)。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商,Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB(Relativity Space)。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元(13倍),我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场(和我自己)之前忽略的点: Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商,而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》(NDAA)禁止大疆(DJI,曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额)后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河:嵌入式生产(embedded production)。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字,却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军(2025年9月)的合同不仅仅是交付无人机;而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂(Micro-Factories)。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部(Dept. of War)的体系中,创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是:他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系(作为分包商,Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同),以及 US-CAD 项目(双方均受益,如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金)。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长,$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面: -> 瑞典等欧洲国家(2026年)使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance(大型国防承包商) -> 美国战争部(美国陆军) 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金(健康的资产负债表),仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率(p/s)。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注,因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施(就像早期的 $RKLB),Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉,认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施(特别是 Replicator 项目,且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的)。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎(说服其他用户花了一些功夫),所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢,想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR:在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸,因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施(就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空),具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段,随着产能建设的收入确认,也存在大量风险。

英文原文

I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.

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