· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AVAV$AXTI$CVX$ITA$JBSS$XLS
如果美国入侵伊朗，最有趣的受益者将是：开心果。绝非玩笑。你知道美国（加州）和伊朗在开心果生产上形成了虚拟双头垄断吗？这类似于 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的情况，两者控制了全球约70-80%的供应。如果加州成为垄断者，$JBSS 等公司可能会因开心果价格上涨而受益。不幸的是，没有开心果期货，所以我没有建立任何头寸，但这有趣的事实让我觉得好笑，所以想分享出来。我稍后会写一篇关于更细微的二阶效应和潜在做多标的的文章。美国打击似乎很可能，因此标准的石油股如 $CVX 或 $XLS 以及国防股如 $AVAV 或 $ITA 可能是不错的做多/对冲选择。
The funniest beneficary if US invades Iran was: Pistachios. Not even joking. Did you know US (California) and Iran operate a virtual duopoly in pistachio production? This is the $AXTI InP situation as the two control ~70-80% of the world’s supply. Companies like $JBSS might benefit from Pistachio prices going up (if California becomes a monopoly) Unfortunately there’s no Pistachio Futures, so I’m not taking any positions but I just found this fun fact amusing, so wanted to share. I’ll do another writeup on more nuanced second order effects and potential longs soon. US strikes seem likely so standard oil like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here.