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机构已提前交易地缘风险，高位追涨石油国防并卖出超跌资产可能是错误。
以下是我对市场的解读： 美国/以色列的政权更迭+对伊朗的打击已被机构提前交易（front-run）。 在历史高位买入国防/石油并卖出风险资产可能是一个错误，因为这本该在一个月前完成。 数据极其异常： 来自 $CVX、$XOM 和 $XLE 的石油/能源板块年初至今（YTD）上涨 22-26%。 大型国防承包商从 $NOC 到 $LMT 年初至今也增长了 27-36%。 大部分涨幅发生在1月下旬，当时情报报告称针对政权更迭的伊朗打击迫在眉睫。 作为参考： - $LMT 一年回报率为 46.12%。洛克希德仅在最近一到两个月内就获得了大部分收益（32.39%）。 这可能与1万亿美元的国防预算有关，但最大的信号是 $CVX、$XLE 和原油因预期中东局势中断而大幅上涨。 伊朗局势与委内瑞拉完全不同，当时所有人都措手不及。 在委内瑞拉事件中，交易者和机构处于同等地位，像 Gold Reserve 这样的公司当日跳空上涨 100%。 但在伊朗事件中，这可能是历史上最“预告”充分的攻击之一，大多数机构已经重新配置完毕（因此高贝塔资产大幅抛售，石油/国防在过去一个月上涨）。 因此，在现有“高风险”资产已经处于低位时卖出，转而配置到已被机构提前交易、经历异常一个月20%+涨幅后处于历史高位的石油和其他国防承包商，可能是一个错误。 预计大多数散户会这样做，并在流动性不足的时段引发波动（但在这种情况下，反向操作可能会带来更高回报） 我可能错了，但就我个人而言，我已在事件发生前用国防和石油进行了对冲。 我的许多对冲收益异常丰厚，我计划将这些资金轮动到高贝塔资产发生的任何主要抛售中。 我的思路是，机构很可能也会这样做。 TLDR：在高风险资产已经抛售之后，将其轮动到已被机构提前交易且处于历史高位的石油/国防，可能不是最好的主意。
英文原文
Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.
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机构已提前布局地缘风险，散户恐慌波动将被机构利用。
过去一个月的新闻：“与伊朗的战争迫在眉睫”。 X 上的散户：“没人预料到会发生这种事！现在是恐慌的时候！” 是的，很多因素已经被计入价格，例如能源 ETF $XLE（年初至今上涨 25%）或 $NOC（年初至今上涨 27%），这些表现异常。 预计散户会出现大量波动，但机构/交易员（大多已重新调整仓位）将利用这一点。
英文原文
News for the last month: "War with Iran is Imminent" Retail on X: "Nobody expected this to happen! Everyone time to panic!" So yes a lot of it has been priced in with Energy ETFs $XLE (up 25% YTD) or $NOC (up 27% YTD), which have been abnormal. Expect a lot of retail volatility, but institutions/traders (who have largely already re-positioned) will use this to their advantage.
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以伊冲突引发市场恐慌，短期避险，若美介入则利好军工石油。
希望你们都用开心果(Pistachios)做了对冲。 以色列现在正在空袭伊朗。 直接受益者： 石油(能源) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, 国防 - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC 避险资产 - 黄金, 白银 航运 - $FRO, $STNG 开心果 这可能只是互相试探(trading blows)的情况： -> 以色列发射一些导弹 -> 伊朗回击一些 -> 被美国击落，以便他们声称进行了报复 然后一切恢复正常。 我的观点是，市场会在周末和隔夜交易时恐慌，但在意识到战争对美国股市有利(bullish)后很快恢复。 但如果美国随后跟进并入侵，那么军事/石油交易逻辑就会回归。
英文原文
Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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作者分享基于宏观催化剂和供应链映射的主动行业轮动对冲策略。
我不会对少数个股采取死守策略并沿途进行对冲。我通过行业轮动来调整投资组合集中度，以此实现个人对冲。例如，伊朗/美国紧张局势升温时，$CVX / $XLE 及国防板块可能上涨，我会减仓其他权重。这些是天然对冲而非看跌期权，只要上涨多于下跌，这就很有效。例如，格陵兰和平协议达成后 -> 减仓 $OSS 及相关军事关联板块。谷歌资本开支指引发布后 -> 增加半导体贸易/光子学BOM（物料清单）的敞口。我认为你更关注像 $TE、$QS 这样的小盘股，而我的投资组合在半导体供应链瓶颈和能源之间分配。策略可能大不相同，我的策略是基于宏观催化剂、供应链映射和盈利预测的极度主动管理。
英文原文
I don't do your hold for dear life strategy with a few individual stocks and hedge along the way. I personally hedge by shifting portfolio concentration by doing sector rotation. For example Iran/US tensions $CVX / $XLE and likely defense goes up, trim other weightings. These are natural hedges rather than puts, and as long as more things go green then red, it's effective. Post-greenland peace deal for example -> trim $OSS and related sector correlation to military. Post Google capex -> up exposure to semi trade/photonics BOM. I think you focus more on small cap like $TE, $QS where my portfolio is split between semi supply chain bottlenecks + energy. Strategy would probably be a lot different, mine is extremely active management based on macro catalysts, supply chain mapping, and earning forecasts.
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作者回避原油现货，建议通过XLE做多板块，并持有CVX多头。
不幸的是，我没有深入研究 $WTI，因为石油并非我的专业领域。但如果我预期该板块上涨，像 $XLE 这样的指数方向性多头头寸要容易得多。 不过，自从我发布关于委内瑞拉入侵的帖子后，我一直持有 $CVX 的多头头寸。18-22% 的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)提供了相当不错的上行空间。
英文原文
Haven’t looked into $WTI, unfortunately oil is not my area of expertise. But if I do expect the sector to go up going index directional longs like $XLE are much easier. I have been chilling in $CVX longs though from my Venezuela invasion post. 18-22% IV presents pretty good upside.