2026-02-28 · 方法论

机构已提前交易地缘风险，高位追涨石油国防并卖出超跌资产可能是错误。

中文翻译

以下是我对市场的解读：美国/以色列的政权更迭+对伊朗的打击已被机构提前交易（front-run）。在历史高位买入国防/石油并卖出风险资产可能是一个错误，因为这本该在一个月前完成。数据极其异常：来自 $CVX、$XOM 和 $XLE 的石油/能源板块年初至今（YTD）上涨 22-26%。大型国防承包商从 $NOC 到 $LMT 年初至今也增长了 27-36%。大部分涨幅发生在1月下旬，当时情报报告称针对政权更迭的伊朗打击迫在眉睫。作为参考： - $LMT 一年回报率为 46.12%。洛克希德仅在最近一到两个月内就获得了大部分收益（32.39%）。这可能与1万亿美元的国防预算有关，但最大的信号是 $CVX、$XLE 和原油因预期中东局势中断而大幅上涨。伊朗局势与委内瑞拉完全不同，当时所有人都措手不及。在委内瑞拉事件中，交易者和机构处于同等地位，像 Gold Reserve 这样的公司当日跳空上涨 100%。但在伊朗事件中，这可能是历史上最“预告”充分的攻击之一，大多数机构已经重新配置完毕（因此高贝塔资产大幅抛售，石油/国防在过去一个月上涨）。因此，在现有“高风险”资产已经处于低位时卖出，转而配置到已被机构提前交易、经历异常一个月20%+涨幅后处于历史高位的石油和其他国防承包商，可能是一个错误。预计大多数散户会这样做，并在流动性不足的时段引发波动（但在这种情况下，反向操作可能会带来更高回报）我可能错了，但就我个人而言，我已在事件发生前用国防和石油进行了对冲。我的许多对冲收益异常丰厚，我计划将这些资金轮动到高贝塔资产发生的任何主要抛售中。我的思路是，机构很可能也会这样做。 TLDR：在高风险资产已经抛售之后，将其轮动到已被机构提前交易且处于历史高位的石油/国防，可能不是最好的主意。

英文原文

Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.

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