$ASST
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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SLNH 也是高稀释标的
$SLNH 跟 $BKKT、$ASST 和 $IREN 一样，都是垃圾股。 它正在通过 5 亿美元 ATM 积极稀释所有人。 真不明白为什么还有人听一个一再把散户组合搞崩的人说话。 我就看着他们从散户接盘侠手里融出 5 亿美元，最后把这些人稀释到 0。 然后再说“我们账上有 5 亿美元，所以市值应该更高”，再用这个 ATM 给自己发 SBC。 它们都绝对是很差的多头。
英文原文
$SLNH is a shtco like $BKKT, $ASST, and $IREN. That is actively diluting everyone with a $500M ATM. Not sure why anyone even listens to a guy who has consistently crashed retail portfolios over and over. I’m going to watch them raise $500M off retail bagholders that get diluted to $0. Then say “we have $500m on our balance sheets, MC should be higher” and award themselves SBC off the ATM. They’re all absolutely terrible longs.
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把 BKKT 和 ASST 的循环套路拿来举例。
@LIama002 是啊，听到这个很遗憾。像 $BKKT 和 $ASST 发生过的那样，他们只会继续让大家 HODL，然后往一个 60 亿美元的 ATM 里继续买。 同一个社区团体就是反复干这事，对散户来说极其有毒。
英文原文
@LIama002 Yeah sorry to hear that. Like what happened with $BKKT and $ASST they’ll just keep telling people to HODL and keep buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM. It’s the same thing on repeat with that community group, and it’s incredibly toxic to retail investors.
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批评投资群组过度稀释股票、骚扰批评者，强调保护散户和自己正确推荐$NBIS的记录。
就像……同样的事情在反复上演，他们每次都用过度的ATM（市场价发行）创造新账户和新股票。 你指出这个问题？无休止的骚扰、死亡威胁、以及新账户刷屏： “别说$IREN、$BKKT、$ASST的坏话，这种骚扰就会停止！” 不在乎？保护散户利益对我来说是第一位的。 我去年推荐$NBIS，到现在涨了60%以上。 去年高峰期跟随那个投资群组的人，因为过度稀释亏损了50%到90%。
英文原文
Like... It’s the same thing on repeat, they create new accounts and new stocks every time with excessive ATMs. You point that out? Endless harassment, death threats, and new account spam: Saying “don’t speak badly about $IREN $BKKT $ASST and this harassment will stop!” Don’t care? Protecting retail interest comes #1 to me. I was suggesting $NBIS last year which is up 60%+. Anyone who followed that investor group last year at the peak are down 50-90% from excessive dilution.
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说卖 IREN/BKKT/ASST 的团体最离谱也最有害。
那个推 $IREN、$BKKT、$ASST 的社区 / KOL 群体，是 X 上最离谱也最有害的一群人。 市场才是真理的终极裁判。 如果某样东西跌了 99%。 而他们接下来继续推的下一只股票，又有 60 亿美元的持续稀释。 而你指出它比同类低了 60%+： 他们只会说“长期投资”或者“你根本不懂！” 或者也许……如果你还有脑子，你就不会想给一个 60 亿美元 ATM 当退出流动性吧？ 我去年对 $BKKT 说过同样的话，也因为这件事被同样的人身攻击。 现在它已经从 40 美元跌到 8 美元，而当初推 $IREN 的还是同一批账号。
英文原文
The community / influencers shilling $IREN, $BKKT, and $ASST are the most delusional and harmful group on X. Markets are the greatest arbiter of truth. If something is down 99%. And the next stock they try pushing has a $6,000,000,000 active dilution. And you show that it’s down 60%+ compared to its peers: they’ll just say “long term investing” or “you don’t know what you’re talking about!” Or maybe… if you had a brain, you don’t want to be exit liquidity for a $6B ATM? I was saying the same thing about $BKKT and received the same personal attacks last year. It’s now down from $40 to $8 from the same group of profiles pushing $IREN today.
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指出 IREN 董事会里有同一个人，擅长向散户倾倒 ATM。
除了 Snapchat，也许…… $ASST、$IREN、$BKKT？ Iren 董事会里正好坐着一个共同的家伙。 他最出名的就是把过度 ATM 往散户头上倾倒。
英文原文
Aside from Snapchat, maybe… $ASST, $IREN, $BKKT? There happens to be a common denominator sitting on Iren’s Board of Directors. Famous for dumping excessive ATMs on retail investors. https://t.co/qGCWsGIGXD
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警告$IREN的60亿美元ATM大规模稀释将清算散户股权，历史先例已证明结局惨烈
$IREN 提交了文件，计划以 117 亿美元市值稀释 60 亿美元。 这不是噪音。 这是 Iren 通过向公开市场发售所有新股来变现 4.5GW 容量的方式。 如果你想了解这类操作的历史结果： 看看 $BKKT 在 Mike 手下暴跌 99% 的先例，以及 $IREN 董事会过去大规模 ATM（按市价发行）的历史。或者他最近的公司 $ASST。 这对公司和高管是增值的：因为这清算了所有散户股东，而他们总可以发行 SBC（股权激励）。 所以他们实际上并不在乎股价需要达到什么水平才能发售。 完成之后，他们将拥有 60 亿美元新现金用于扩张，而无需支付利息。 但可转换票据附带利息、以及 $NVDA 资助资产负债表的模式对散户资金好得多的原因是： 因为它不需要清算散户股权就能实现这一点。因为目前看来 $IREN 像是数据中心版的 $AMC，拥有不断缩小的护城河，以及即将有 60 亿美元新股涌入公开市场。 我发帖讨论 $IREN 的原因是： - 人们将 60 亿美元 ATM 视为"噪音"而不予理会 - 它是最受散户欢迎的"抄底"标的之一，而这些散户正在买入一个 60 亿美元稀释机器 - 人们仍然完全不了解其中的风险 - 他们目前的资金量不足以支撑 GPU/GW 容量的货币化 - 他们很可能必须使用 ATM，这不是"选择性" 再次声明：我在这家公司零仓位。 我只是警告散户投资者，这个 ATM 的结构性机制如何通过 60 亿美元以上的 ATM 运作来从结构上抹杀你的股权增值。 因为 $IREN 可能需要在任何价格出售新股来变现他们的 GW，否则就没有必要提交这个文件。 高管们实际上不需要担心，因为他们可以通过发行 SBC 来弥补股价下跌，就像 $SNAP 一样。 如果你还在疑惑你的股权是否会被大规模 ATM 清算： 还有更好的做多选择，比 $IREN 更值得。
英文原文
$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC. That is not noise. This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market. If you want some history on how this turns out: Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST. It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC. So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell. After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest. But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital: Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market. Reason I post about $IREN is because - people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise” - it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine - people still don’t understand the risk at all. - the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization. - they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality” Again: I have zero positions in the company. I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work. Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it. Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP. If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM: There are better longs out there than $IREN.
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概述自己的打法：先识别新兴赛道，再沿整条供应链做多，同时强调风控和透明。
如果你现在还不了解我的风格： 我会先识别即将起来的赛道（光子学、存储、无人机），然后沿着整条供应链去做多。 当然，我也不是每次都对。 $AVAV 和无人机板块是我今年除 $RDDT 外亏得最多的（不过 $OSS 最后涨了 60%+）。 我仍然从基本面上相信像 $AIRO、$LPTH 等公司长期都非常扎实。（$AIRO 现在仍然涨了大约 15%，但它曾经 70%+ 的涨幅大部分都没了，Draganfly 跌得更多。） 而且光看 $SNDK 这种超级周期，就会产生一种非常不现实的预期，觉得每个月都能涨 100%。 我在那个板块里识别的主要催化，是委内瑞拉入侵带来的隐蔽无人机 + 前沿防御合同 / 分包商需求。 我也预期后续会有资金继续流入这个板块。 不过，在格陵兰协议那一段，我提过自己已经开始降风险了（大多数防务承包商都跌了），但我还是保留了像 $AVAV 这种较小仓位。 SCAR 项目输给其他公司，比如 $AVAV，这也是个更大的意外，我亏得更多。 不幸的是，伊朗战争这次主要冲击的是像 L3 Harris、$NOC 这种更大的防务承包商，以及像 Anduril 这样的私营公司，还有一些定向能供应商，比如 $LASR。 所以无人机公司并没有多少顺风修复。 尽管如此，我确实知道怎么止损。 但我还是经常被人喷，说“看你今年早些时候喜欢过的 X 股票”。 在这件事上我很透明：$IREN 社区里某些高管，在他们的粉丝因为 $BKKT 或 $ASST 稀释后亏掉 90% 之后，会把所有帖子都删掉。 我挑的多数股票基本面都非常扎实，所以从最初 thesis 出来以后，它们要么守住了自己的价位。 而且我也会把风险等级 / 信念等级一起写出来（风险高的当然下行也更大）。 我比那些只会发热评的人更有 skin in the game。 所以如果我的 thesis 错了，我自己也会亏钱（这种例子还有很多，像 $AVAV 这种就是无穷无尽的亏损）。 但我会把所有东西都留着，让你们自己看事情最后怎么演变。
英文原文
If you don't know my style by now: I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain. I'm not always right, though. $AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ). I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more) And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month. The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors. And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector. However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV. SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more. Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR. So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies. That being said, I do know how to cut losses. But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year". I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution. Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis. And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside). I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes. So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills like this, just endless losses on $AVAV). But I leave everything up so you can see how things play out.
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BKKT等公司利用热点炒作后通过ATM减持，散户受损严重。
纵观 $BKKT、$ASST 以及可能的 $IREN，其策略如出一辙。围绕热门叙事（比特币库藏、AI 智能体、数据中心）制造巨大的散户炒作热度，等待股价飙升，随后立即通过定向增发(ATM)抛售股份以资助运营并支付高管基于股票的薪酬(SBC)。公司本身没问题，但个体散户股东受到的伤害最大。
英文原文
Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SBCs. The companies themselves are fine but the individual retail shareholder is left hurt the most.
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指出IREN管理层过往记录公开，质疑信任其处理稀释的论点。
尽管你可以随意发表看法，但这无法改变事实。关于 $IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的过往记录，所有信息都是公开的。如果某人的核心论点是“信任管理层能处理好稀释问题”，那么了解这一点确实至关重要。
英文原文
Feel free to say whatever you want, but it doesn’t change the reality of things. It’s all public information with $IREN management track record with $BKKT and $ASST. It’s definitely important to know if someone is making the primary argument of trusting in management to handle dilution
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警告 IREN 60 亿 ATM 稀释将重创散户，勿盲目信任管理层。
支持 Iren 进行 60 亿美元稀释的主要论点是： “信任 $IREN 管理层对稀释的管理能力。” 如果你查看 IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的实际历史： 这两家公司都通过自动做市商(ATM)发行彻底摧毁了股东价值。 导致所有原始散户股份价值下跌 98-99%。 像 Bakkt 这样的公司表现尚可。 但高管的股票薪酬 + 稀释抹去了散户的所有股权价值。 如果一家公司申请 60 亿美元的 ATM 稀释，你应该预期他们会使用它并据此调整仓位。 也许 $IREN 的结果会不同。 但一边说“信任管理层”，一边看这些炒作型散户股票的管理层记录 -> ATM 稀释抹去所有价值的情况已多次发生。 公司最终可能没事，别把这和你的股票表现混为一谈。 我最关心散户股东胜过公司高管，这就是我分享关于 $IREN 60 亿 ATM 的红旗信号的原因。
英文原文
The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was: “Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.” If you look at the actual history of IREN management with: $BKKT and $ASST. Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from ATM dilution. Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%. Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay. But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail. If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly. Maybe $IREN turns out differently. But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares. I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.
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批评某人在多只股票中稀释散户，认为其毫无信誉。
@Mr_Derivatives 鉴于他通过 $BKKT、$ASST 以及现在的 $IREN 将散户持仓稀释至零的过往记录，此人已毫无信誉可言。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives Given his track history of diluting retail to zero with $BKKT, $ASST, and now $IREN, the guy has zero credibility anymore.
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Robinhood用户Q4亏246亿，警示散户在熊市中难以获利。
这组数据令人震惊……Robinhood 用户在 2025 年第四季度集体亏损： - 246 亿美元。 而 X 上 Robinhood 投资组合主要由以下股票组成： $HIMS、$DUOL 和 $BMNR。 随着这些股票下跌 50-70%+，2026 年第一季度可能会更糟。 每个人都以为自己是沃伦·巴菲特，能在极端牛市中从 Duolingo、$CRWV 和 $ASST 获利。 但当市场转差时： 我们将开始看到真正的交易者和投资者，他们能够在任何市场条件下获利。
英文原文
This data is alarming... Robinhood users lost a collective: - $24.6 Billion USD in Q4 2025. With Robinhood portfolios on X consisting of : $HIMS, $DUOL, and $BMNR. Q1 2026 is likely to be even worse, as these names drop 50-70%+. Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market. But as markets turn sour: We'll start to see the real traders and investors, who are able to profit in any market condition.