· 个股论点

警告$IREN的60亿美元ATM大规模稀释将清算散户股权,历史先例已证明结局惨烈

涉及标的:

中文翻译

$IREN 提交了文件,计划以 117 亿美元市值稀释 60 亿美元。 这不是噪音。 这是 Iren 通过向公开市场发售所有新股来变现 4.5GW 容量的方式。 如果你想了解这类操作的历史结果: 看看 $BKKT 在 Mike 手下暴跌 99% 的先例,以及 $IREN 董事会过去大规模 ATM(按市价发行)的历史。或者他最近的公司 $ASST。 这对公司和高管是增值的:因为这清算了所有散户股东,而他们总可以发行 SBC(股权激励)。 所以他们实际上并不在乎股价需要达到什么水平才能发售。 完成之后,他们将拥有 60 亿美元新现金用于扩张,而无需支付利息。 但可转换票据附带利息、以及 $NVDA 资助资产负债表的模式对散户资金好得多的原因是: 因为它不需要清算散户股权就能实现这一点。因为目前看来 $IREN 像是数据中心版的 $AMC,拥有不断缩小的护城河,以及即将有 60 亿美元新股涌入公开市场。 我发帖讨论 $IREN 的原因是: - 人们将 60 亿美元 ATM 视为"噪音"而不予理会 - 它是最受散户欢迎的"抄底"标的之一,而这些散户正在买入一个 60 亿美元稀释机器 - 人们仍然完全不了解其中的风险 - 他们目前的资金量不足以支撑 GPU/GW 容量的货币化 - 他们很可能必须使用 ATM,这不是"选择性" 再次声明:我在这家公司零仓位。 我只是警告散户投资者,这个 ATM 的结构性机制如何通过 60 亿美元以上的 ATM 运作来从结构上抹杀你的股权增值。 因为 $IREN 可能需要在任何价格出售新股来变现他们的 GW,否则就没有必要提交这个文件。 高管们实际上不需要担心,因为他们可以通过发行 SBC 来弥补股价下跌,就像 $SNAP 一样。 如果你还在疑惑你的股权是否会被大规模 ATM 清算: 还有更好的做多选择,比 $IREN 更值得。

英文原文

$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC. That is not noise. This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market. If you want some history on how this turns out: Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST. It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC. So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell. After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest. But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital: Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market. Reason I post about $IREN is because - people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise” - it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine - people still don’t understand the risk at all. - the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization. - they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality” Again: I have zero positions in the company. I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work. Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it. Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP. If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM: There are better longs out there than $IREN.

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