$VLN
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周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
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列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
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认为 VLN 低于账面价值，且市场对以色列相关股票偏冷，但估值仍显著低估。
关于 $VLN，我不觉得自己错了。但市场显然不同意我的看法。 我学到了两件事： - 一些股票，像日本股，确实会交易到远低于账面价值 - 市场不太喜欢以色列股票，比如 $ETOR，我在那上面也亏了不少。 我还是觉得它被低估了。净资产（2.926 亿美元纯现金）对比 1.32 亿美元市值。 净资产是 1.05 亿美元，而且零负债。 那企业价值不就大概 2700 万美元？对于一家 2025 财年营收 7060 万美元、GAAP 毛利率 60% 的成长公司来说。 所以估值看起来很离谱。但股票市场偏偏就是这么运作的。
英文原文
As for $VLN, I don't think I'm wrong. But markets clearly disagree with my opnion. I've learned two things: - Some stocks like Japanese ones can trade way under book value - Markets don't like stocks from Israel like $ETOR for some reason (lost a lot on that too). I still think it's undervalued. Net assets ($92.6M pure cash) vs. $132M MC. Net assets is $105M with zero debt. So EV is ~$27M? For a growing company with 60% GAAP gross margins on $70.6M FY 2025 revenue. So valuation looks stupid. But somehow stocks operate that way.
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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强调 thesis 会随催化剂变化而更新，近期对战争股、无人机和部分瓶颈股重新转多。
感谢你指出这一点。如果你有认真看过我的帖子，你就会发现我的 thesis 其实是会变的。 市场会随着每次财报和新的催化剂（比如宏观）不断更新。 像 $SNAP 这种，如果 SBC 没有明显下降，我就会转空并退出仓位。 但如果 gcloud opex + 变现能力真的能改变局面，Evan 又把 SBC 砍下来，那它也可能被重新定价。 $VPG 我之前发过关于 Optimus BOM 改用中国供应商做量产的新闻。 最近的冲突之后，我其实又重新看多战争股、无人机公司，以及 $LPTH。 $OSS 我们也看到它涨了差不多 80%？ $VLN 我仍然觉得它被低估，只是现在价格基本和我发帖时差不多。 大家老是截图我去年看多 $IREN 的帖子，可如果它们又开一个 60 亿美元 ATM，我也能立刻转空。 很多人误以为“我在某个时间点看多”，就等于我跟一只股票结婚了；但其实只要催化剂变了，我的看法就会变。 不过话说回来，我还是喜欢像 $LPTH 和 $OSS 这样的东西，德国锗瓶颈和边缘计算的逻辑并没有变。 和 $NBIS 一样，有些东西就是需要时间去兑现。
英文原文
Appreciate you calling me out on that. If you ever read my posts, my thesis can change. Markets are constantly updating every earnings with new catalysts such as macro. For things like $SNAP I flipped bearish when SBC didn’t go down materially and exited my positions. But gcloud opex + monetization can materially flip it if Evan cuts SBC. $VPG i published news on Optimus BOM switching to Chinese suppliers for production. I’m actually bullish on war stocks again, drone companies, and $LPTH again due to recent conflicts. That was following the Venezuela conflicts. $OSS is up like 80%? $VLN I still think it’s undervalued but it’s around the same price I posted. People are still screenshotting me saying I’m bullish on $IREN from last year but if they launch a $6 billion ATM, I can turn bearish. Think people mistake being bullish in one point in time to married to a stock, when things materially change based on catalysts. That being said I still like things like $LPTH and $OSS, nothings changed about germanium bottlenecks or edge computing. And like $NBIS sometimes they need time to play out.
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伊朗战争或消除以色列及关联股的生存折价，需进一步研究。
我也没料到这一点。也许伊朗战争的后果消除了相关股票如 $NBIS 以及以色列股票如 $ETOR 至 $VLN 的“生存折价因子”（existential discount factor）？ 或者情况是多方面的，因为国防在以色列股市中占很大权重。 鉴于这对我来说是新领域，仍在做更多研究。
英文原文
I was not expecting this as well. Maybe the implications of the Iran war removes Israel’s existential discount factor on correlated stocks like $NBIS and Israeli ones like $ETOR to $VLN? Or its multifaceted since defense makes up a large weighting of the Israel stock exchange. Still doing more research since this is new to me.
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分析某以色列公司财务数据，认为其被严重低估。
@JohnPenisini 是的，我仔细研究过了。看起来被严重低估。 总资产1.34亿美元，市值1.54亿美元，60%利润率下的指引为7600万美元，负债-2970万美元。 不知道为什么市场不喜欢像 $ETOR 或 $VLN 这样的以色列公司。
英文原文
@JohnPenisini Yep I went through it. Looks deeply discounted. Total assets $134m, MC is $154m, $76m guidance off 60% margins, -$29.7m liabilities. Idk why markets dislike Israeli companies like $ETOR or $VLN
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认为VLN因资产占比高被低估，指出市场折价以色列股，关注今日财报。
我仍然认为 $VLN 被低估，因为其资产占市值(Market Cap)的大部分。大约1.1亿美元对比1.58亿美元，你基本上是以4800万美元的价格买入了一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semi)公司？ 但出于某种原因，市场严重折价以色列公司，比如 $ETOR。即使在 Etoro 财报发布后，股价也 barely 恢复。 让我们看看今天即将发布的财报。
英文原文
I still feel like $VLN is undervalued just because assets make up majority of MC. It’s like ~$110M vs $158M and you’re basically buying a fabless semi for $48m? But markets heavily discount Israeli companies for some reason like $ETOR. Even after Etoro earnings it barely recovered. We’ll see in their upcoming earnings today.
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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感谢关注，$VLN表现不佳，$AXTI表现强劲。
@soulbiri1 @platochi 谢谢！我提到的其他一些股票如 $VLN 目前表现不如预期，但很高兴 $AXTI 能强力带动（行情）。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 @platochi Appreciate it! Some of my other mentions like $VLN are not working out as well so far, but glad $AXTI is hard carrying.
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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质疑以色列半导体公司估值脱节及持续下跌原因
是的，对于 $VLN，现金加库存占其市值的绝大部分（未包含IP等其他资产）。它是无晶圆厂半导体公司，营收8000万美元，机器人/工业垂直领域毛利率很高。因此当前估值存在极端脱节。 我最近发了一篇帖子，质疑市场为何像对待 $ETOR 那样，如果是以色列公司，即便现在大部分是现金，也基本不给核心业务估值。 所以简而言之：完全不知道发生了什么，以及为什么以色列公司一直在跌。
英文原文
Yes for $VLN, cash + inventory makes up majority of its MC not including other assets like IP. They’re fabless semi, $80m revenue, high gross margin for robotics/industrial vertical. So current valuation has an extreme disconnect. I put out another post recently questioning how markets basically assign no value to the core business like $ETOR if they’re Israeli when they’re majority cash now. So TLDR: no clue what’s going on and why companies from Israel keep dropping.
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博主坦言投资也有亏损，指出部分AI股估值与现金或基本面严重脱节。
我完全没头绪。很多人看到我发了大量像 $OSS 或 $AXTI 这样的高收益论点帖子，但当我判断错误时，我也确实会亏钱。 而且我确实是真金白银地践行我的观点（skin in the game）。 我曾与其他分析师讨论，他们都感到困惑。对于 $ETOR 和 $VLN，我发现它们与市场的明显脱节，两者交易价格接近其现金余额，但显然市场并不认同我的观点。 如果 $NBIS 正在通过自动取款机(ATM)增发，那稍微说得通一些，但其运营业务并未通过分部加总法(Sum of Parts)得到正确定价。 至于 Nebius，如果市值仍为 210 亿美元，而年底年化经常性收入(ARR)为 70 亿美元，那我就不知道了。
英文原文
I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong. And I do put my money where my mouth is. I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me. $NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly. With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.
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质疑以色列股票估值过低，认为存在分部加总套利机会。
市场对以色列股票有什么偏见吗？ 我在其中一些股票上损失惨重。 $ETOR 和 $VLN 的市值已接近其现金资产价值。 而对于 $NBIS，其投资组合公司 Clickhouse 的估值几乎已超过其主体公司。 尽管地缘政治风险已计入溢价，但这些估值仍显得不合逻辑。 市场几乎将其实际业务价值归零，尽管它们都在增长，特别是 $ETOR（资产管理规模增长 70%+）产生了可观的自由现金流(FCF)。 我 genuinely 感到惊讶，我在想这是否是一个利用资产负债表进行分部加总(SOTP)套利的潜在交易机会。 或者抛售会持续下去？ 这里存在巨大的认知偏差。
英文原文
What do markets have against stocks from Israel? I’ve lost an incredible amount on some of these. Both $ETOR and $VLN are close to cash-assets | marketcap. And with $NBIS their portfolio company Clickhouse is almost worth more than their main company at this point. Geopolitical risks factored into premiums, none of the valuations make sense. The market is assigning close to 0 value to their actual business even through they’re all growing with $ETOR in specific (70%+ AUM growth) producing considerable FCF. Im genuinely surprised, l wonder if it’s a potential trade arbitraging sum of parts to balance sheets. Or would the selloff continue? There’s a huge disconnect.
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质疑市场对以色列股票估值过低，分析ETOR和VLN的财务优势。
对我来说，答案是肯定的。我真的不明白市场为何对以色列股票如 $ETOR、$NBIS 和 $VLN 如此不友好，因为它们是我表现最差的持仓。 我在 Etoro 上亏损了不少，但其持有约一半现金，且企业价值(EV)与远期收益(Forward Earnings)之比约为4倍。资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长77%。 而 $VLN 基本上拥有约1.1亿美元现金/库存，市值为1.7亿美元。营收8000万美元且毛利率很高。 所以个人实在搞不清楚到底发生了什么。
英文原文
To me strong yes. I really don't understand what markets have against Israeli stocks like $ETOR, $NBIS, and $VLN because those are my worst performers. I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y. Then $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins. So personally not quite sure what's going on.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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推荐研究 $VLN，认为其因现金储备下行风险低且仍被低估。
关于 $VLN 的帖子很棒！我建议每个人都对这类公司进行独立研究。其资产与市值的比率已不再是接近 1:1，但我个人感觉它仍然被严重低估，且由于现金储备充足，下行风险较低。让我们看看下一次财报后市场如何对其定价。
英文原文
Great post on $VLN! I’d recommend everyone do their own research on companies like this. It’s no longer close to 1:1 on assets/MC but personal my feeling was that it’s still deeply misvalued, with low downside risk due to cash balance. We’ll see how things get priced in after their next earnings.
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博主坚持投资论点，对多只AI供应链股进行长期持有与加仓。
@truncateit 我确实相信我的投资论点，所以我会对像 $AIRO 和 $LPTH 这样的标的进行成本平均加仓。但如果你好奇的话，是的，我仍然持有 $OSS、$AIRO、$LPTH、$SSYS、$AXTI、$VLN 以及其他我做过尽职调查(DD)的股票，因为它们旨在作为1年期的持仓，而不是12小时的短线交易。https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
英文原文
@truncateit I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH. But if you're curious yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN, and others I do DD on since they're meant to be 1 year holds, not 12 hour ones. https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe
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列举近期持仓标的，表示将持有头寸一年以等待价值重估。
是的？最近发布的帖子包括：用于无人机的 $AIRO、用于边缘计算的 $OSS、用于机器人的 $SSYS、用于人工智能(AI)瓶颈的 $AXTI、用于国防瓶颈的 $LPTH 以及存在定价偏差的 $VLN。自重新评级(re-rating)不会在一两天或一两周内发生，可能需要数月才能显现，因此我将持有我的头寸一年。
英文原文
Yes? $AIRO for drones, $OSS for edge, $SSYS for robotics, $AXTI for AI bottlenecks, $LPTH for defense bottlenecks and $VLN for mispricing were the most recent posts. I’m holding my share positions for a year since re-rating doesn’t happen in a day or week. Might take months to play out.
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重申NBIS和VLN的投资逻辑，认为市值将回归基本面。
我的投资逻辑应该能自行验证，无需我发帖。我对 $NBIS 在 2026 年的观点与去年完全一致。 $VLN 也是如此，目前市值约 2 亿美元，对应 8000 万美元远期营收，毛利率 63%，基本处于 1.2 亿美元的估值水平。 一旦做市商停止因今日全市场期权大规模到期而进行的操纵小动作，市值应该会回归基本面。
英文原文
Thesis should play out by itself without me posting. My thesis with $NBIS for 2026 hasn't changed at all since last year. Same with $VLN, it's basically sitting on $120m off $200m MC right now doing $80m forward revenue, 63% gross margins. MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board.
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博主分享今日逢低买入LPTH、AIRO和VLN的操作。
@MRonvelwala 我个人在今天 $LPTH 和 $AIRO 下跌 4% 时买入，并在 $VLN 下跌 8% 时买入。 看起来 SPY 下跌了 0.8%，因此由恐惧带来的良好机会很多。
英文原文
@MRonvelwala I personally bought $LPTH and $AIRO on 4% drop today and $VLN on the -8% drop. Looks like SPY is down -.8% so lot of good opportunities out there from fear.
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认为$VLN受做市商算法操控，短期价格无关紧要，市场终将修正。
我对 $VLN 的看法是，这很可能是做市商(MM)算法在 $2.5 进行的打击防御(strike defense)，因为期权链上只有 $2.5 和 $5 的合约。（你可以看到上周五该价格被锁定数小时）。 短期价格并不重要，因为市场最终会自我修正，尤其是在做市商完成对冲、伽马(Gamma)解除或如果数据来源在下一次财报中修正从而停止做空之后。
英文原文
My thoughts on $VLN is that it’s probably MM algo strike defense at $2.5 since option chain is only $2.5 and $5. (You can see it pinned to that price last Friday for hours). Short term price doesn’t matter because markets correct itself over time, esp after MMs finish hedging, gamma unwinds, or we stop seeing shorting if data source corrects next earnings.
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博主分享近期选股大幅上涨，并征集5倍股研究标的。
一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张，我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的，如果你有想法或投资论点，请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
英文原文
January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87
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质疑对方对$VLN股票的分析视角是否一致。
@1000UMAX 我们看的是同一只 $VLN 股票吗？ https://t.co/ZTcFDOUQMP
英文原文
@1000UMAX Are we even looking at the same stock for $VLN? https://t.co/ZTcFDOUQMP
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Valuebase对$VLN建模准确，预期近期兑现。
@yianisz 关于 $VLN 的写得很好。大多数机构对此建模错误，但 Valuebase 做对了。我们很可能在接下来几周看到这一情况成为现实。
英文原文
@yianisz Great write up on $VLN. Most institutions modeled this wrong but valuebase got it right. We’ll likely see this come in fruition in the upcoming weeks
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作者认为应关注VLN基本面而非盘前价格，视其为买入机会。
@toninojiv @trodoszalay 我将其视为买入机会，因为我更关心 $VLN 的基本面，而非流动性不足盘前价格。
英文原文
@toninojiv @trodoszalay I see just that as a buying opportunity since I care more about $VLN fundamentals than illiquid premarket prices
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Alpha源于发现市场盲区，等待机构验证即已错过最佳时机。
没错，和 $VLN 一样。最大的利润来自于发现别人未发现的机会。 我觉得大家都在抱怨“为什么在它涨400%之前你不告诉我”，就像 $MU 那样在顶部蜂拥而入。 然后当我在早期发布像 $AIRO、$AXTI、$OSS 或 $VLN 这类内容，而它们下周就上涨50%+时，他们又抱怨。 散户认为 $AXTI 是某种随机的“拉高出货(pump and dump)”股票，但在其上涨100%+后，现在有了机构验证。 再说一次，超额收益(alpha)来自于发现大多数市场忽略的东西。等到机构告诉你买入时，你就已经错过了。
英文原文
Yep, same as $VLN. The most money to be made is when you discover things others don't. I feel like everyone complains about "Why didn't you tell me about this stock before it went up 400%" as people pile on at the top like $MU. Then complain when I post about stuff like $AIRO, $AXTI, $OSS, or $VLN at the start and they go up 50%+ the next week. Retail thinks $AXTI is some random pump and dump stock, but now you have institutional validation after a 100%+ move. Again, alpha is when you discover things majority of markets miss. You miss out by the time you wait for institutions to tell you to buy.
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说明自己买入 VLN 的估值逻辑
你们自己对 $VLN 下结论吧！ 我个人买入，是因为我觉得它不应该接近按资产/市值 1:1 的水平交易。 即使经历了周五之后，它的 EV/收入也接近 2 倍，而其他公司是 14-18 倍；考虑到它毛利率接近 70%（混合毛利率会干扰计算），这个估值仍然很低。 这只是我个人的 thesis，不适合所有人。
英文原文
Come to your own conclusion on $VLN! I personally bought because I thought it shouldn’t trade close to 1:1 with assets/MC. And even after Friday it’s close to 2 EV/revenue while others trade 14-18, given its gross margins are close to 70% (blended margins messes up calculations) So that’s just my own personal thesis, it’s not for everyone
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认为 VLN 是高毛利 fabless 半导体的疯狂低估值
这篇 $VLN thesis 很不错！我的想法类似：一家拥有一级客户、毛利率极高的 fabless 半导体公司，竟然只按荒谬的约 2 倍 EV/收入交易。 我觉得大家还没理解：一家没有债务、8000 万美元前瞻收入、63% 毛利率、机器人/工业垂直业务毛利率 69.1%（占收入 75%+，同比增长 40%）的公司，不应该接近市值、现金/资产 1:1 的水平交易。 人们只是拿“内幕卖出”或“以色列公司”当空头理由，却不看财务。 这个估值太疯狂了。
英文原文
Nice thesis on $VLN! Similar thoughts where you have an extremely high margin fabless semi trading (with t1 customers) trading close to a ridiculous 2 ev/revenue. Don’t think people quite understand that you don’t have companies trading close to 1:1 marketcap, cash/assets if they have no debt, $80m fwd revenue off 63% gross margins, 69.1% on their robotics/industrial vertical (75%+ of revenue growing 40% y/y). People are just citing “insider sales” or “Israeli company” as bear cases without looking at the financials. This is a crazy valuation
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反驳VLN拉高出货论，强调其基本面重定价及数据污染问题。
这是一次重定价事件，基于一家拥有三星、LG、奔驰等客户的正规半导体公司的资产负债表，模型显示其价值从-8200万美元开始调整。 如果你认为 $VLN 是“拉高出货(pump and dump)”，那你完全误解了，因为目前所有算法和大语言模型(LLM)仍在使用受污染的数据。 这纯粹是信息发现过程，市场正在对此进行定价。 如果你想了解财务状况而不仅仅是看市值，我建议你阅读我的置顶帖子。
英文原文
This is a repricing event from -$82 Million modeled off the balance sheet of a legitimate semiconductor that has Samsung, LG, Mercedes and others as customers. You’re completely misunderstanding if you think $VLN a pump and dump when every algorithm and LLM still use contaminated data. This is purely information discovery and markets pricing it in. I’d suggest you read my pinned post if you want to understand the financials rather than just looking at marketcap.
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AI模型数据污染需VLN人工审核
@ENTJ_46 例如，对于 Opus 模型，^ 它们都使用了受污染的数据，这需要借助 $VLN 进行人工审核 https://t.co/wTpg2BTVYn
英文原文
@ENTJ_46 Eg. With opus, ^ they all use contaminated data, and this requires manual review with $VLN https://t.co/wTpg2BTVYn
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指出算法误判$VLN财务数据导致做空，散户提前发现真相。
$VLN 零债务，持有 $9350 万现金和 $1100 万库存。几乎所有基于 $VLN 筛选器和数据网站污染数据建模的算法或大语言模型(LLM)都误以为其因 -$8200 万库存消耗导致的 $1 亿成本将在一年内破产。这一错误至今未纠正，因此周五出现了大量算法做空。只有 X 上的散户(Retail)早期发现了这一点。
英文原文
$VLN has 0 debt, $93.5M cash and $11M in inventory. Almost every algorithm or LLM modeled off of contaminated data from $VLN screeners and data sites thinking they will go under in 1 year from $100m in costs from -$82m inventory burn. This is still not corrected yet so we saw a ton of algorithmic shorts on Friday. Only retail on X found out about this early
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列举CRDO、VLN及AXTI因非基本面因素暴跌，指出市场虽蠢但终会修正。
市场有时极其愚蠢。$CRDO 因线缆颜色变化引发的波动就是完美例证。就在过去两周，$VLN 也因股票代码冲突（ticker collision）导致股价与现金/市值几乎 1:1 挂钩；而 $AXTI 则因 2026 年误报为 2024 年的合同收益延迟披露而暴跌 40%。市场最终会自我修正。
英文原文
Markets are extremely dumb sometimes. $CRDO cable color changes was the perfect example. Just this past two weeks there was also $VLN trading close to 1:1 with cash / MC because of ticker collision and $AXTI selling off 40% because of delayed 2024 contracted earnings when it's 2026. Markets correct themselves eventually.
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澄清 $VLN 基本面，反驳 Reddit 误解，指出其财务健康及机器人业务增长。
哈哈，Reddit 大概是我互动的最蠢的群体。如果你读过我在 Reddit 的帖子，我会故意关闭大脑去和社区互动。 不幸的是，你现在在 X 上。 你们唯一说对的就是他们是以色列公司。除此之外，他们确实制造芯片组。名字里就有“半导体”这个词。 他们的信息在公开文件中，因为这是纽约证券交易所监管的半导体公司，我不知道你们指的“缺失信息”是什么。这不是那种拉高出货的中国仙股，而是一家拥有从三星到梅赛德斯等一线客户的真正半导体公司。 公司现金为 9350 万美元，不是 3000 万。他们零债务。任何“投资”可能只是让人混淆的存入国债的现金。 你们看到的一些负债是行权价为 11.5 美元的认股权证、运营支出或以股票形式支付的股权激励。第三季度每股收益为 -0.04 美元，而在 2026 年底转为正数，如果他们刚刚为机器人领域推出新芯片并以 40% 的年增长率扩张，这是极好的事情。 直接去看他们的实际财报，而不是像 MarketWatch 这样的扫描器。帖子的部分重点就是他们混淆了纽约证券交易所的 $VLN 和多伦多的 $VLN。
英文原文
lol Reddit is perhaps the dumbest group i interact with. If you read my Reddit posts I turn off my brain on purpose to interact with the community. Unfortunately you’re on X now. The only thing you got right was that they’re from Israel. Aside from that they literally make chipsets. There’s the word Semiconductor in its name. Their information is in public filings since it’s a regulated semiconductor on NYSE, I don’t know what “missing information you’re referring to”. This is not a pump and dump Chinese penny, it’s an actual semiconductor firm with t1 customers from Samsung to Mercedes. The company has $93.5 million in cash not $30 million. They have 0 debt. Any “investments” might just be confusing cash deposited in treasuries. Some of liabilities you see are $11.5 strike warrants, opex, or equity bonuses paid out in shares. -.04 EPS q3 earnings while shifting to positive late 2026 is a extremely good thing if they just created a new chip for the robotics sector and are growing it 40% y/y Go directly to their actual earnings, not scanners like market watch which was paetly the point of the post was that they’re conflating $VLN NYSE with $VLN Toronto.
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看好$VLN长期持有，认为其估值仍有翻倍空间且机器人业务前景广阔。
是的，我研究得越深入就越喜欢它。我个人持有 $VLN 股票超过1年。其他人可以随意使用这些信息。我的思路是，市场可能需要一些时间才能将14-18倍市销率(EV/Revenue)这样的溢价计入股价。但即使短期来看，5-7倍市销率也更有可能，这仍然大约是当前股价的两倍。此外，其增长最快的业务板块利润率极高，我预计机器人(Robotics)将成为2026年及2027年的巨大主题。
英文原文
Yeah the more I look into it the more I like it. I’m holding personally holding my $VLN shares 1Y+. Others can do whatever they want with the information. My thought process is that it would likely take some time to price in premiums like 14-18 ev/revenue anyway. But even short term something like 5-7 is more likely, which is still around double current prices. Also it’s extremely high margin too for their fastest growing segments, and I expect robotics to be a huge theme in 2026 and into 2027.
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博主回应夸奖，表示乐于分享信息综合，由市场验证观点。
@Ren_aramb 你太抬举我了哈哈。 我确实喜欢发布关于 $VLN、$CRDO 或其他标的的信息综合(Information Synthesis)。有趣之处在于，市场最终会裁定这些观点是对是错。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb You flatter me too much lol. I do enjoy posting information synthesis on stuff like $VLN, $CRDO or others. The fun part about it is markets will ultimately decide if it’s right or wrong
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自建数据管道发现$VLN异常，强调人工复核优于算法。
谢谢，我自建了类似 Citadel 的数据管道，在研究机器人板块股票时发现了 $VLN。这可能是我迄今发现的最大异常，因此我不得不手动将财务报告与分析师/扫描器报告进行交叉核对，以验证其真实性。即使算法 + 大语言模型(LLM) 也搞错了这一分析，只有人工审查才能发现这种差异。
英文原文
Thanks, I built my own Citadel-like data pipeline and I was researching robotics sector stocks and came across $VLN. This was probably one of the biggest anomalies I've ever found so I had to manually cross-check financial reports with analyst/scanner reports to see if it were true. Even algorithms + LLMs got this analysis wrong, so only manual review could spot this discrepancy.
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VLN估值严重偏低，基本面显示其存在巨大重估空间。
你拥有一家拥有8000万美元远期营收、英伟达($NVDA)级别毛利率的无晶圆厂机器人半导体公司，其现金/库存与市值之比接近1:1。即便在上涨60%后，$VLN的市值/营收(EV/revenue)比率仅为2.4倍，而同类公司的交易区间在14-18倍之间。若重估至标准的10倍EV/revenue，其价格将是当前价格的3倍以上。这就是为什么自己进行基本面估值计算比看百分比变化要好，因为这看起来像是算法幻觉导致的极端错误定价。
英文原文
You had a $80m forward revenue, $NVDA-margin fabless robotics semi trading close to 1:1 cash/inventory to marketcap. Even after 60% run $VLN literally sits at 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade between 14-18. Re-rating to a standard 10 EV/revenue would be over 3 times+ current prices. This is why it's good to do the fundamental valuation math yourself rather than looking at percentage changes since this looks to be extreme mispricing from algorithm hallucination.
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发现机器人供应链标的$VLN估值极低，认为其严重被低估。
谢谢，$VLN 是我在研究机器人供应链时的一项惊人发现。我无法相信一家拥有 8000 万美元以上远期收入、且其增长的机器人业务毛利率高达 69% 的公司，其交易价格几乎与现金和库存余额 1:1 持平。即使在周五之后，$VLN 2.4 倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）倍数看起来也完全不合理，因为相关公司的交易倍数为 14-18 倍，若有溢价甚至超过 30 倍。
英文原文
Thanks, $VLN was just an incredible discovery when I was looking through robotics supply chains. I'm in disbelief that a company with $80M+ forward revenue with 69% gross margins from their growing robotics segments was trading almost 1:1 with their cash and inventory balance. Even after Friday, 2.4x EV/revenue on $VLN just looks completely off when related companies trade at 14-18 multiples, or even 30+ if there's premiums.
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VLN转型高毛利AI业务，巨额现金消耗压制当前估值。
-8200万美元的现金消耗产生了极其巨大的实质性影响。 我来回顾一下历史： 去年，$VLN 还是一家低毛利（毛利率仅40%出头）、单一客户依赖梅赛德斯-奔驰的汽车芯片制造商，且该业务板块下滑了37.9%。 自那以来发生了许多实质性变化，他们成功将核心知识产权转型为适用于机器视觉机器人到医疗垂直领域等广泛应用的新型芯片组，实现了类似 $NVDA 69-70%的高毛利率。 该新业务板块目前占其收入的75%以上（同比增长40%+），而其汽车板块则下降了37%+。 如果模型中没有计入这-8200万美元的现金消耗，鉴于机器人和AI领域的估值溢价，Valens 今天的股价可能已超过10美元以上，对应10-12倍的EV倍数（即便这仍偏低）。 但你可以基于上述财务数据自行得出估值结论。
英文原文
-$82M burn made a extremely, extremely big material difference. I'll give you some history: $VLN last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) and single supplier dependent on Mercedes, with this segment declining -37.9%. There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with $NVDA like 69-70% gross margins. That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+. If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments. But feel free to come up with your own valuation metric based on the financials above.
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指出$VLN因数据错误被算法低估，实为高毛利AI芯片股，建议手动建模验证。
Valens 在 $2.5 的价格看起来存在极端的错误定价。 所谓的 -8200 万美元库存消耗（Inventory Burn）是一个巨大的数据错误，很可能是由于 $VLN 和 $VLN 多伦多股票代码冲突（Ticker Collision）导致的。 散户投资者已经提前发现了这个 Alpha（超额收益机会）。 然而，算法尚未察觉，因为它们仍在基于 -8200 万美元的消耗建模负企业价值（Negative EV）（这需要人工修正）。 鼓励大家从 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器上发布的财务数据中，对以下所有信息进行事实核查，特别是关于 -8200 万美元的错误。 $VLN 因其 2.55 亿美元的市场规模而被严重误解。 这并非因为公司质量，也绝对不是某种“拉高出货”的中国仙股。而是由于算法定价在 -8200 万美元消耗导致的一年内跑道（Runway）不足而受到的人为压制。 这是一家被极度错误定价的 AI 和机器人无晶圆厂（Fabless）芯片制造商，拥有： - 梅赛德斯 - 三星 - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - 西门子 - Logitech 以及许多其他领先的 OEM 和机器人公司作为客户。 $VLN 拥有： - 零债务。 - 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 约 8000 万美元以上的预计远期收入。 - 其机器人/机器视觉/工业垂直领域的毛利率为 69.1%（同比增长 40%）。汽车板块的混合毛利率将其拉低至 63.0%。 如果你想比较类似的公司： - Lattice $LSCC 交易在约 19 倍和 23 倍 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入比）。 - Macom $MTSI，交易在约 13 倍和 16.5 倍 EV/Revenue。 Valens 的交易价格为： 2.4 倍。这看起来像是一个故障（Glitch）。 即使是非溢价、毛利率 20-30% 的公司，交易倍数也在 4-5 倍。 我们现在看到一家拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的无晶圆厂芯片制造商，在机器人机器视觉到 AI 汽车领域存在极端的错误定价。 最后一点： 我鼓励每个人根据财务数据自己做估值建模。 然后对 -8200 万美元的错误进行尽职调查。 也许你会得出与我相同的结论，即在 $2.5 时存在极端的错误定价。 你拥有一家无债务、拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的机器人/AI 领域无晶圆厂芯片制造商，拥有 Tier-1 客户，但由于技术报告错误而以困境倍数交易。 这可能是历史上散户发现的最罕见时刻之一。
英文原文
Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5. The -$82M inventory burn was a massive data error, likely from ticker collision between $VLN and $VLN Toronto. Retail has found out about the alpha early. Yet algorithms have not caught on yet, as they're still modeling negative EV from -$82M burn (this requires manual correction). Everyone is encouraged to fact check everything below from financials posted to -$82M error on Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners. $VLN is heavily misunderstood due to its $255M market cap size. This is not due to company quality and it's definitely not some pump and dump Chinese penny stock. But an artificial suppression from algorithmic pricing in <1Y runway from $82m burn. This is a extremely mispriced AI & Robotics fabless chipmaker with: - Mercedes - Samsung - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - Siemens - Logitch and many other leading OEMs and Robotics companies as customers. $VLN has - Zero Debt. - $93.5 Million Cash and $11M+ in Inventory - $11 Million + in inventory. - ~$80M+ est. forward revenue - 69.1% gross margins on their robotics/machine vision/industrial vertical (growing 40% Y/Y). Blended margins from their automotive segment brings it down to 63.0%. If you want to compare similar companies: - Lattice $LSCC trades around 19x and 23x EV/Revenue. - Macom $MTSI, trades around 13x and 16.5x. EV/Revenue. Valens trades at: 2.4x. Which looks like a glitch. Even non-premium, 20-30% gross margin, companies trade at 4-5x. We now see an extreme mispricing of a $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in verticals for machine vision in robotics to AI automotive sectors. Final Point: I encourage everyone to do valuation modeling themselves from the financial data. And then do due diligence on the -$82M error. Maybe you'll come to the same conclusion that I did regarding the extreme mispricing at $2.5. You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error. This might be one of the rarest moments in history retail has discovered.
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指出因代码冲突导致的数据错误，反映自动化时代的普遍现象。
@sachbarnes @illyquid 只是直到昨天，大家才意识到纽交所 $VLN 与多伦多证券交易所 $VLN 之间的股票代码冲突导致的“数据错误”。毕竟在这个时代，几乎一切都是自动化的，并非每个人都会手动核实分析师和扫描器发布的每一个数字。
英文原文
@sachbarnes @illyquid It's just that nobody realized data error from ticker collision between $VLN on NYSE and $VLN on TSX until yesterday. Not everyone fact manually checks every number posted by analysts and scanners. In this day in age anyway, almost everything is automated.
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作者驳斥对$VLN的误解，基于高毛利、大客户及低估值论证其做多逻辑。
我认为这很大程度上源于极度的认知缺失。欢迎人们核实所有信息，从财报数据到 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器发布的 -8200 万美元技术故障。$VLN 并非随机的中国仙股炒作，其机器人垂直领域（主要收入来源）拥有 8000 万美元以上的远期营收，且毛利率类似 $NVDA 达 69-70%，同时持有 9500 万美元现金和 1100 万美元库存。它也并非无名之辈，三星、Mobileye、梅赛德斯、罗技、西门子等众多 OEM 及机器人+AI 公司均为 $VLN 的客户。$VLN 在 2.5 美元时交易估值约为 2.5 倍 EV/Revenue，而 Lattice、Macom 等类似公司交易估值为 14-18 倍。我只是在发布关于真实定价错误的观点以及我做多（Long）的原因。市场可以随意定价，我强烈建议大家自行研究。此外，最重要的是，这种信息发现有助于这家被压制的芯片制造商的员工在市场开始纠正关于库存消耗的错误信息时重新成长。
英文原文
I think a lot of it comes from an extreme lack of understanding. People are welcome to fact check everything from financials posted to the -$82m technical glitch that Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners all posted. $VLN isn't some random pump and dump Chinese penny stock, they have $80m+ forward revenue off 69-70% $NVDA like margins for their robotics vertical (majority of revenue) and $95M cash + $11m Inventory. It's not unknown either, Samsung, Mobileye, Mercedes, Logitech, Siemens, and many other OEMs and robotics + AI companies are $VLN's customers. VLN trades at ~2.5 EV/revenue at $2.5 while Lattice, Macom, and similar companies they all trade at 14-18x. It's just me posting about the genuine mispricing and why I'm long. Markets can price it in however they want and I really encourage people to do the research themselves. Also most of all, this information discovery helps all the employees at this suppressed chipmaker start to grow again if markets start to make corrections based on misinformation about the inventory burn.
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指出Fintel数据延迟，建议用实时数据观察$VLN空头回补引发的波动。
为了帮大家理清，Fintel 等数据源存在延迟。如果你想查看实时资金流向，尤其是周五的情况，可以付费使用 Ortex 或查看实时经纪商数据，以了解 $VLN 的算法做空在周五出了什么问题。你可以看到 IBKR 的可用券源从 220 万股降至 19 万股（这仅是众多经纪商中的一家），即使股价从 $1.7 上涨，由于筛选器尚未修正 -8200 万美元的消耗，数据依然滞后。随着 $VLN 回升至公允价值，空头回补通常会导致更大的价格波动或上涨。
英文原文
So just to help you out, Fintel and others are delayed data. If you want to see live flows, especially on Friday, you can pay for Ortex or look at live brokerage data to see what went wrong with $VLN algorithmic shorts on Friday. You can see 2.2M availability in IBKR drop to 190k (this is just 1 brokerage of many) on the way up even from $1.7 because screeners didn’t correct the -$82m burn yet. As $VLN climbs back to fair value, covering all shares sold short usually leads to more price volatility or increases.
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研究有时很简单，如理清细节或发现财报差异。
@Lehi88 谢谢！有时候就像搞对 $CRDO 线缆颜色那么简单，或者像这次在 $VLN 上发现分析师报告与资产负债表之间的差异。
英文原文
@Lehi88 Thanks! Sometimes it’s as easy as getting the color of the cables right with $CRDO or in this case finding discrepancies between analyst reports and balance sheets with $VLN.
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澄清媒体误报 $VLN 涨幅，指出其实际涨幅与模型预测价不同。
@basedinwv 发现这对 $VLN 来说挺有趣的。不过新闻搞错了，因为它只涨了 58%，也许是将此与我建模预测 $7.00 的价格混淆了 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
英文原文
@basedinwv Found this amusing for $VLN. News got it wrong though since it’s only up 58%, maybe it conflates that with me modeling it for $7.00 https://t.co/FegV7lXxdi
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分享$VLN财务数据，指出其机器人业务高增长且高毛利，估值具吸引力。
你可以自行进行公允价值计算并做出自己的决定。 我在之前的帖子中提供了关于 $VLN 的指标，但我会在那里重新发布它们： 一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semiconductor)公司，市销率(Sales)为2.1倍，市值(MC)为2.53亿美元，拥有： 9355万美元现金，1097万美元库存，零债务 综合毛利率为63%（GAAP）/ 66.7%（Non-GAAP）。 - CIB（企业互联网业务）毛利率：69.1% - 汽车业务毛利率：43.2% 3. 远期营收约8000万美元（同比增长20%以上） 4. 76.3%的营收来自机器人业务板块，其毛利率像 $NVDA 一样达到69%-70% 5. 机器人业务板块营收增长40.4%，而汽车业务萎缩37.9%。增长中的业务（机器人）盈利能力几乎是萎缩业务（汽车）的两倍。
英文原文
You can do fair value calculations yourself and make your own decision. I provided metrics in the earlier post about $VLN but I’ll just repost them there fabless semiconductor at 2.1x Sales, $253m MC with: $93.55M Cash, $10.97M in Inventory, Zero Debt Blended Margins of 63% (GAAP) / 66.7% (Non-GAAP). - CIB Gross Margin: 69.1% - Automotive Gross Margin: 43.2% 3. Fwd revenue ~$80M (20%+Y/Y growth) 4. 76.3% of their revenue coming from Robotics segments with $NVDA like 69%-70% gross margins 5. Revenue segments from robotics growing +40.4% while automotive are shrinking 37.9%. The growing part of the business (robotics) is almost two times as profitable as the shrinking part (automotive).
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指出$VLN因数据错误被算法压价，建议自行建模评估其真实价值。
这是算法压价，源于吸收了那笔8200万美元的笔误数据。否则 $VLN 现在可能已经是7美元的股票了。我建议你们自己建模测算一下：一家AI无晶圆厂半导体公司，拥有9300万美元现金、1100万美元库存、7000-8000万美元的年营收、60%以上的综合毛利率，在自动驾驶和机器人计算机视觉领域实现20-30%的同比增长，其估值应该是多少。
英文原文
It’s algorithmic price suppression due to ingesting data from the $82m typo. Otherwise $VLN might be a $7 stock by now. I’d suggest you try modeling yourself what a AI fabless semi would be valued at with $93m cash, $11m in inventory, $70-80m yearly revenue with 60%+ blended gross margins, 20-30% y/y growth, in automotive and robotics computer vision segments.
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澄清$VLN无息债，区分负债与债务概念。
@Dexsa18929428 没有债务是正确的。你误解了负债(Liabilities)与债务(Debt)的区别。 $VLN 没有债务，拥有 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元库存。债务是指需支付利息的款项。而负债是指运营支出(Opex)成本，或像行权价为 11.5 美元的认股权证(Warrants)以及以股票结算的员工奖金等。
英文原文
@Dexsa18929428 No debt is correct. You’re misunderstanding liabilities vs. debt. $VLN has no debt, $93.5M in cash, and $11m in inventory.Debt is interest bearing. Liabilities are opex costs or stuff like $11.5 strike warrants or employee bonuses that are settled in shares.
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作者建模 $VLN 目标价 7.3 美元，认为算法误做空是额外利好。
我的意思是，我建模得出的股价约为 7.30 美元（当前为 2.5 美元）。基于 2027 年远期数据，1.3 亿美元营收乘以 5 倍市销率(EV/Sales)，加上 9350 万美元净现金。我认为算法因混淆股票代码而大量做空 $VLN 只是锦上添花。话虽如此，我只是在分享信息发现，市场将决定如何对此进行定价。
英文原文
I mean I modeled for ~$7.30 (from $2.5 currently) share price. From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash. I think algorithms piling in to short sell $VLN because they mixed up tickers is just a cherry on top. That being said I’m just posting info discovery, markets will decide how to price that in
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算法过度做空VLN致借券枯竭，建模失误。
@sslickith 我仍然无法相信算法在这些价位上做空了最大数量的股票，以至于它们即将面临 $VLN 的借券枯竭。他们在建模方面真的搞砸了 https://t.co/BUFviLSUX6
英文原文
@sslickith I still can’t believe algorithms are shorting the maximum amount of shares at these levels to the point they’re about to run out for $VLN They really messed up modeling https://t.co/BUFviLSUX6
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指出市场误用数据导致 $VLN 被低估，算法过早做空反而利好散户。
不，我只是说该公司理应获得重估，因为市场错误地使用了错误的股票代码作为数据。但巧合的是，算法也基于这些信息过早地进行了做空，这对于发现 $VLN 这一差异的散户来说更是锦上添花。
英文原文
No I’m just saying the company deserves to be re-rated because markets mistakenly used the wrong ticker for data. But it just so happens that algorithms are shorting off this information too extremely early on, which is a cherry on top for retail who discovered this discrepancy on $VLN
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VLN融券额度见顶，算法交易导致股价异常。
@Tradesofadegen 看起来融券可借股份(short share availability)几乎已触及上限。算法似乎真的把 $VLN 搞砸了 https://t.co/dOv14HSiux
英文原文
@Tradesofadegen Looks like short share availability is almost capped out. Algorithms seem to have really messed $VLN up https://t.co/dOv14HSiux
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算法因代号冲突出错，导致$VLN可做空股份持续下降。
@Tradesofadegen 看着这一切展开真是有趣，因为我从未见过算法（Algorithms）因与 $VLN 的代号冲突（Ticker Collision）而犯下如此严重的错误。看起来可做空股份（Shortable Shares）的数量每分钟都在持续下降。（这是实时数据，只是时区不同） https://t.co/ORWElItOFP
英文原文
@Tradesofadegen It’s just amusing to watch this unfold because I’ve never seen algorithms mess up this badly, especially because of ticker collision with $VLN. Looks like shortable shares just keeps going down every single minute. (This is live data just different timezone) https://t.co/ORWElItOFP
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指出$VLN代码混淆被算法误判做空，认为其公允价值超5美元。
@DivGuru 发现 $VLN 和 $VLN.TO 被混淆，这是十年来真正的阿尔法(Alpha)收益。目前算法正在做空，因为它们在模型中将其资产负债表减少了8200万美元，尽管该股票的公允价值应为5美元以上。
英文原文
@DivGuru This is genuine alpha of the decade finding out $VLN and $VLN.TO got mixed up. And algorithms are currently shorting because they’re modeling -$82M off the balance sheet even though fair value of this stock would be $5+.
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VLN因代码碰撞致算法误判库存，存在巨大估值修复机会。
$VLN 看起来像是一笔即将彻底失败的算法做空交易。 并非所有算法都会阅读 X 平台，它们仍基于代码碰撞（ticker collision）错误导致的资产负债表上-$8200万美元现金进行建模。 即使粗略估算，股价也应为~$7.30（当前为$2.28）。 从2027年远期来看，$1.3亿营收的5倍EV/Sales加上$9350万净现金。此外，VLN在其机器人和非汽车垂直领域拥有类似 $NVDA 的利润率。 这是一家在高端垂直领域拥有$9300万+现金和$1100万+库存的轻量级、高利润率无晶圆厂半导体公司。 然而，算法却将其定价为<1年的运营资金且伴随巨额现金消耗。 这开始看起来像是少数几个因代码碰撞导致算法彻底出错、而早期在 X 上发现此点的散户却大获全胜的案例。
英文原文
$VLN looks like an algorithmic short trade about to go terribly wrong. Not all algorithms read X, and are still modeling the company off -$82 million cash off the balance sheet from ticker collision typos. Even napkin math would be ~$7.30 (from $2.28 currently) share price. From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash. On top of that VLN has $NVDA like margins for their robotics and non-automotive vertical. This is a lightweight, high-margin fabless semi in premium verticles with a $93m+ cash pile and $11m+ in inventory. Yet algorithms are pricing in <1Y runway with massive cash burns. This is starting to look like one of the few instances where ticker collision goes terribly wrong for algorithms and amazingly right for retail who spotted this early on X.
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认为VLN存在估值脱节，目标价7美元。
@robswainept 这很有趣，尽管有超过160万股被做空。我认为一些做空者或某些算法尚未理解 $VLN 的估值脱节问题。个人观点是，它应该从2美元交易到7美元。
英文原文
@robswainept It’s funny, this is even through over 1.6M shares shorted. I don’t think some short sellers or some algorithms understood the valuation disconnect with $VLN yet. Personal opinion is that it should trade at $7 from $2. https://t.co/1bcz3Zl86j
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作者重估 $VLN 价值约 6.5 美元，计划长期持有以捕捉其机器人业务高增长红利。
我重新审视了 $VLN 并做了一些快速建模。我个人给出的估值约为 7 亿美元，约合每股 6.5 美元。 我实际上打算持有这些股票一年以获取长期资本利得，因为这是一家真正的无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semi)公司，处于机器人/自动驾驶 AI 领域，其机器人业务板块正以类似 $NVDA 或 $CRDO 的极高利润率实现 20-30% 的同比增长。 有趣的是，此前股价被严重压制，因为市场误以为他们现金为负 8200 万美元，且剩余运营资金(runway)不足一年。
英文原文
I revisited $VLN and did some quick modeling. I personally would assign a value of ~$700m which is around $6.5. I’m actually holding my shares for a year for long term capital gains since this is a legitimate fabless semi in the robotics/self driving AI space that’s growing 20-30% y/y off insanely high $NVDA or $CRDO like margins for their robotics segment. It’s just funny how suppressed this was because they thought they were -82m in cash lol and only had <1 year runway left.
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指出某机器人半导体公司市值严重高估，且代码与加股撞车。
@SingularityRes 是的，我当时正在研究机器人领域的半导体供应链，然后看到他们7000万美元的营收、9300万美元的现金储备，市值看起来极其、极其离谱。 今天股价很容易就能定在7-8美元，但股票代码与加拿大的$VLN撞车这件事简直让我笑出声。
英文原文
@SingularityRes Yeah I was looking at semi supply chains for robotics and then their $70m revenue, $93m cash pile and MC just looked extremely, extremely off. Could easily be priced at $7-$8 today but the ticker collision with the Canadian $VLN just made me laugh.
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澄清$VLN库存误解，看好其AI半导体业务及高毛利机器人前景。
好笑的是，$VLN 今天市值7亿美元（股价7-8美元）会被视为正常估值。但大家都以为他们把8200万美元资本支出(Capex)浪费在了库存上，结果这只是一次股票代码(Ticker)撞车事件。作为AI领域轻量级无晶圆厂半导体(Fabless Semi)公司，拥有巨额现金储备，机器人(Robotics)垂直领域毛利率达68-69%，且根据我对CES的预测，营收超8000万美元并实现20-30%增长，这是一个惊人的发现。
英文原文
It’s hilarious $VLN could be valued at $700m today $7-8, and that would be considered normal. But everyone thought they blew $82m capex on inventory, which turned out to be a ticker collision. Lightweight fabless semi in AI, huge cash pile, 68-69% margins for robotics vertical, and growing 20-30% with $80m+ revenue from my CES projections is an insane find
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指出$VLN数据错误，以此为例论证市场无效性。
@yianisz 是的，$VLN 是市场无效性的完美例证。我真不知道他们怎么会把加拿大 VLN 的数据搞得一团糟。
英文原文
@yianisz Yeah, $VLN was the perfect example of markets not being efficient. I don’t know how they can mess up so badly switching up numbers from the Canadian VLN.
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指出$VLN因虚假Capex数据被低估，认为其基本面强劲且存在巨大市场错误。
$VLN 本可以成为一家市值超 7 亿美元的成长型半导体股票，但却被一个虚假的 8200 万美元资本支出(Capex)数据人为压制。尽管其市值已回升至 2.22 亿美元，但这依然是一个彻头彻尾的笑话。这并非某只随机的微盘股，而是一家拥有 9300 万美元现金、7000 万美元营收且毛利率超 60% 的正规成长型半导体公司。我刚刚指出了一个巨大的市场错误，即市场正在对信息发现进行定价。
英文原文
$VLN could have been a $700m+ growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number. Even though it’s back to $222m that’s still a complete joke. This isn’t some random microcap, it’s a legitimate growing semi with $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins. I just pointed out a massive market error, and that’s markets pricing in information discovery
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VLN被虚假Capex数据压制，实为高毛利成长型半导体股。
@MitchMartan98 是的，$VLN 本可以成为一家市值 7 亿美元的成长型半导体股票，但却被一个虚假的 8200 万美元资本支出(Capex)数据人为压制。 这并非某种随机的微盘股，而是一家拥有 9300 万美元现金、7000 万美元营收且毛利率超过 60% 的正规成长型半导体公司。
英文原文
@MitchMartan98 Yeah $VLN could have been a $700m growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number. This isn’t some random microcap, it’s a legitimate growing semi with $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins.
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质疑$VLN被虚假Capex数据压制，指出其基本面强劲。
@FeroceResearch @zephyr_z9 或者，$VLN 本应是一只市值7亿美元的成长型半导体股票，但却被一个虚假的8200万美元资本支出(Capex)数据人为压制？ 这些并非随机的微盘股/仙股，它们拥有9300万美元现金，以及基于60%以上毛利率的7000万美元营收。
英文原文
@FeroceResearch @zephyr_z9 Or maybe $VLN should have been a $700m growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number? These aren’t random microcap penny stocks they have $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins.
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澄清$VLN供应链误解，指出其轻资产模式及强劲现金流。
@_gautam94 谢谢！这是一篇很好的后续解释帖。 https://t.co/FBiJAUgwl9 （该推文引用了 @yianisz 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： $VLN 的供应链被误解了。 Valens 是无晶圆厂(fabless)、轻资产，并运行准时制生产(just-in-time manufacturing)。 库存约为 1100 万美元，而非某些屏幕仍显示的 8200 万美元（感谢 @aleabitoreddit 指正）。 对于拥有多元化供应商且无工厂风险的芯片设计公司而言，这是正常的。 供应链地图的关键点： > 没有单一供应商瓶颈 > 广泛的 OEM 客户群（汽车、专业自动驾驶、工业、医疗） > 低资本支出，低营运资金需求 算法看到了高库存风险。 现实是：干净、灵活的供应链 + 强劲的现金头寸。 错误的数据 > 错误的结论 > 便宜的股票
英文原文
@_gautam94 Thanks! This is a great follow up explanation post https://t.co/FBiJAUgwl9
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指出分析师因错误现金消耗率导致对VLN库存及估值严重误判。
@yianisz 我起初阅读分析师报告时，以为 $VLN 的库存是 8200 万美元。随后我核查了差异，发现所有人都是基于错误的现金消耗率(现金消耗率)进行建模。这是一个基于多伦多 $VLN 支出而导致的、极其滑稽的意外定价错误。
英文原文
@yianisz I thought $VLN was $82m inventory initially after reading analyst reports. And then I checked the discrepancies and everyone was modeling off false cash burn. This one was a hilarious accidental mispricing based on the Toronto $VLN spend
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发布 $VLN 投资论点，预期其市值重估至 5 亿美元。
@Jetson_Dad 谢谢，我只是发布了我自己的投资论点(Thesis)，基于我通过新颖的信息综合发现的市场对 $VLN 的定价错误。撇开任何溢价不谈，我希望它能重新估值至 5 亿美元市值，这是我计划顺利执行时的基准案例预测。
英文原文
@Jetson_Dad Thanks, I’m just posting my own thesis on what I found with the markets mispricing from $VLN with novel information synthesis. Any premiums aside hope it rerates to $500m MC, which was my base case projection if things go as planned.
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指出分析师因混淆$VLN代码导致严重低估，作者认为其真实估值应更高。
分析师和算法在建模时混淆了多伦多交易所的 $VLN 和纽交所的 $VLN，这个股票代码碰撞错误简直令人捧腹。我简直不敢相信自己的眼睛，他们竟然拥有超过1亿美元资产、7000多万美元年营收以及60%以上的毛利率，而估值却仅为1.55亿美元。于是我深入挖掘。如果仅使用保守的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/营收）模型，我会将其估值约为4.935亿美元。
英文原文
It's a pretty hilarious ticker collision error with analysts and algorithms modelling off $VLN in Toronto, rather than $VLN NYSE. I couldn't believe my eyes that they had $100m+ in assets, $70m+ yearly revenue with 60%+ gross margins and was valued at $155m lol so dug deeper. I would value them around $493.5M if i just used conservative EV/revenue models.
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建仓$VLN，利用分析师笔误导致的市场错杀及CES新业务利好。
我建仓了$VLN（市值1.55亿美元）。 这个太疯狂了。 Valens是一家专注于自动驾驶汽车和机器人的AI半导体公司。 我发现市场因代码碰撞数据错误而误判了VLS，并且错过了本周CES 2026的新信息。 VLN拥有： 1. 9350万美元现金，0债务。 2. 约1100万美元库存。 3. 高毛利率~69.1%（CIB/ProAV业务），汽车业务43.2%。 预计营收超7000万美元，综合毛利率63-65%（从CES公布的汽车业务转型后由43%跃升）。 市值仅1.55亿美元？什么鬼？ 乍一看这数据完全不对劲，所以我做了更多研究，排查是否是营收崩溃、稀释、现金流问题或监管风险。 发生了什么？ 定价错误源于分析师/扫描器关于8200万美元“库存消耗”的笔误： VLN实际上是一家拥有9350万美元现金和零债务的公司，企业价值(EV)约6500万美元，而市场却因一个根本不存在的“库存危机”惩罚它。 Streetwise的分析+其他扫描器在2025年11月13日左右笔误报告，错误地称：“8200万美元的库存与第二季度末持平”。 市场和扫描报告的算法认为$VLN积压了超过1年的死库存（8200万美元），并烧光了9350万美元的现金储备用于未售出的芯片。 我们可以用公司官方2025年Q3资产负债表从数学上证明这是笔误： 总资产：1.367亿美元 现金：~9350万美元 剩余资产空间：1.367亿 - 9350万 = 4320万美元。 如果库存真的是8200万美元，总资产至少要是1.75亿美元（9300万现金+8200万库存）。这个库存数字在数学上是不可能的。 查看财务报告后，他们只有约2个月的库存（1100万美元），只卖生产的。 分析师+算法在传播报告时，将Valens Semiconductor (VLN) 与加拿大工业阀门制造商Velan Inc.（拥有该库存量）混淆了。 甚至阅读此报告的LLM也完全搞错了，需要人工审核。 $VLN作为一家无晶圆厂芯片公司，实际上只有~1100万美元库存，并没有烧掉8200万美元。 这看起来像是一个真正的市场低效，因为你看到的是一张干净的资产负债表（9300万现金，1100万库存，0债务），却因笔误导致的8200万美元现金消耗恐惧而被人为压低。 _ 现在，第二个方面是本周CES发布的新信息。 $VLN花费多年和数百万美元为奔驰研发DSP引擎，这曾带来汽车业务的单一客户集中风险。 但从本周CES发布的信息看，他们有效地将同一款引擎销售给了许多具有相同物理问题的热门垂直领域。他们还通过与新的T1汽车OEM合作扩大了之前的汽车业务规模。 但关于他们的(VS6320 vs. VA7000)芯片组，他们使用的是相同的Core IP (DSP)。 医疗芯片：他们从汽车芯片中提取引擎，去除汽车特定功能，为医疗领域创建扩展器。 我最喜欢的是机器视觉/机器人垂直领域： 新信息是，通过与RGo Robotics宣布的合作伙伴关系，RGo集成了Valens芯片，允许RGo设计摄像头远离大脑且无信号损失的机器人。在CES上，他们还宣布与CIS Corporation（一家日本相机制造商）合作，取得另一个特定的机器人胜利。 他们有效地将汽车业务多元化到多个其他高增长+高毛利的机器人计算机视觉等领域。 再次强调，Alpha在于他们CES宣布的新机器人业务，销售周期为6个月，而不是汽车行业的5年周期。所以营收今年就能体现。 此外，分析师使用混合汽车营收（奔驰等）计算较低的毛利率（~42-45%）。 现在增长的新业务（通过VS6320的机器人/医疗）具有显著更高的毛利率（VS6320毛利率：~69-70%），因此综合毛利率可能会显著高于市场共识。 _ 现在，下行风险？ 权证行权价11.5美元的极度稀释（是当前价格的10倍以上）。 如果股价从1.5美元上涨1000%到11.5美元，这将限制上行空间。 _ TLDR： 市场预计2026年因代码碰撞笔误导致的库存风险会有高现金消耗。相反，他们可能会得到： 营收和盈利超预期（由新垂直领域和新高芯片带来的~69%+综合毛利率驱动）。以及因笔误修正带来的7000万美元+现金流超预期。 我们可能看到8500-9200万美元营收，综合毛利率63-65%，以及8200万美元+现金被重新计入这家1.55亿美元市值的公司。 算法将$VLN定价为因虚假8200万美元库存堆积（源于毒丸数据点）而剩余跑道<1年。这是我基于公开信息合成进入此交易的个人论点，NFI（非财务建议）。 所以虽然我不指望它成为20亿美元+的公司，但当前市值对于一家 1.55亿美元市值的半导体公司来说是完全非理性的定价： - 9350万美元现金 - 1100万美元库存， - 预计8000万美元+营收（同比增长20%-30%+） - 60%+综合毛利率。 具有60%+毛利率的无晶圆厂半导体公司通常以4x–8x EV/Revenue交易，行业平均估值保守基准为4.935亿美元，相对于1.55亿美元。 加上轻微的“AI/机器人”溢价，可以估值6.535亿美元（7倍EV/Revenue，~320%+） TLDR：发现这家公司可能因笔误+代码碰撞导致的虚假8200万美元库存消耗而被人为压低，并即将进入新的高毛利+增长周期的新垂直领域。 我正在利用数据库碰撞错误。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC). This one is wild. Valens is a AI semi for self-driving cars and robotics. I've found that markets messed up on VLS from a ticker collision data error. And missed new CES 2026 info this week. VLN has: 1. $93.5M in Cash, 0 Debt. 2. ~$11M inventory 3. High gross margins ~69.1% (CIB/ProAV) margins, 43.2% automotive. and projected to do $70M+ revenue with blended 63-65% gross margins, jumping from 43% from their automotive pivot from CES. At $155M MC. What? This just looked way too off at first glance, so I had to do more research, whether it was revenue collapse, dilution, cashflow problems, or regulatory risk. What happened? The mispricing was from an analyst/scanner typo regarding a $82M "inventory burn": VLN is effectively a company with $93.5M Cash and Zero Debt for an EV of ~$65M, while the market has punished it for an "inventory crisis" that literally does not exist. Streetwise's analysis + other scanners around Nov 13, 2025 typo'ed their report when they erroneously stated: "Inventory of US$82 million remained in line with the end of the second quarter". The market and algorithms that scan for the reports thinks $VLN is sitting on >1 year of dead inventory ($82M) and burnt through their $93.5M cashpile on unsold chips. We can mathematically prove this is a typo using the company's official Q3 2025 balance sheet: Total Assets: $136.7M Cash: ~$93.5M Remaining Room for Assets: $136.7M - $93.5M = $43.2M. If inventory were actually $82M, Total Assets would have to be at least $175M ($93M cash + $82M inv). This inventory figure is mathematically impossible. After looking at their financial reports, they are sitting on just ~2 months of inventory ($11M), only selling what they make. The analyst + algorithms wrote spread the report confused Valens Semiconductor (VLN) with Velan Inc. (https://t.co/oJVlzuwtoL), a Canadian industrial valve manufacturer (with that inventory amount). Even LLMs that read this, completely messed up and required manual review. $VLN actually only has ~$11M in inventory as a fabless chip company and did not burn through $82M. This looks like a genuine market inefficiency because you are looking at a clean balance sheet ($93M cash, $11M inventory, $0 debt) that has been artificially suppressed because of $82M cash burn fears on dead inventory due to the type. _ Now, the secondary aspect is new CES information that came out. $VLN spent years and millions on R&D for DSP engines for Mercedes, which presented single customer concentration risk for the automotive segment. But from the CES release this week, they've effectively took the same that exact same engine, and managed to sell it to many hot verticals that have the exact same physics problem. They've also managed to scale their previous automotive segment with new T1 automotive OEMs. But regarding their (VS6320 vs. VA7000) chipset, they are using the same Core IP (DSP). Medical Chip: They took the same engine from the auto chip and stripped out the car-specific features to create a Extender for the medical segment . And my favorite is the Machine Vision/Robotics vertical: The new information is that with the RGo Robotics partnership they announced, RGo integrated Valens chips which allowed RGo to design robots where the cameras are far away from the brain without signal loss. And at CES they also announced one with CIS Corporation (a Japanese camera maker) for another specific robotics win. They've effectively diversified their automotive segment into multiple other high growing + higher margin verticals for robotics computer vision to others. Again, the alpha is that their new robotics segments announced at CES, operate on a 6-month sales cycle, not the 5-year automotive cycle. So revenue actually hits this year too. Also, analysts were using blended automotive revenue (Mercedes, etc.) has lower gross margins (~42-45%). The new growth coming in now (Robotics/Medical via VS6320) has significantly higher margins (VS6320 Gross Margin: ~69-70%), so the the blended gross margins will likely come in significantly higher than street consensus. _ Now the downside? Extremely heavy dilution at $11.5 Strike from warrants (which is 10X+ from here). This will cap upside if it ever increases 1000% from $1.5 to $11.5 _ TLDR: The market expected 2026 with high cash burn from inventory risk from a ticker collision typo. Instead, they are likely to get: Revenue and earnings beat (driven by new verticals and much higher blended margins ~69%+ from new chip). As well as an $70M+ cashflow beat from the typo. We could see $85-$92M revenue off 63-65% blended gross margins and that $82M+ in cash modeled back into this $155m company. The algorithms are pricing $VLN as if it has <1 year of runway due to a phantom $82M inventory pile (off of a poison pill data point). So this is my own personal thesis from public information synthesis on why I entered this trade, NFI. So while I don't expect this to be a $2B+ company, the current MC is just completely irrational pricing for a $155M MC semi: - with $93.5m in cash - $11m in inventory, - est. $80m+ revenue (growing 20%-30%+ Y/Y) - with 60%+ gross blended margins. Fabless semi companies with 60%+ gross margins typically trade at 4x–8x EV/Revenue and sector average valuations would be $493.5M, from $155m as a conservative base case. Just slight "AI/Robotics" Premium, could value it at $653.5M with 7 E/V (~320%+) TLDR: Found that this company likely got artificially suppressed because of a typo + ticker collision from false $82M inventory burn and is about to enter a newer higher margin + growth cycle from new verticals. I am taking advantage of a database collision error.