2026-02-21 · 业绩复盘

博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。

涉及标的： $AEHR $AIRO $AVAV $AXTI $CIFR $CPSH $CRCL $CRDO $CVX $ETOR $EWY $FORM $GLXY $HOOD $INFQ $INTC $IREN $LPTH $META $MRVL $NBIS $ONDS $ORCL $OSS $PLTR $RDDT $RPI $SMCI $SOFI $SPY $VLN $XLU

中文翻译

年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易，我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)：例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。

英文原文

Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.

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