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认为 VLN 低于账面价值，且市场对以色列相关股票偏冷，但估值仍显著低估。
关于 $VLN，我不觉得自己错了。但市场显然不同意我的看法。 我学到了两件事： - 一些股票，像日本股，确实会交易到远低于账面价值 - 市场不太喜欢以色列股票，比如 $ETOR，我在那上面也亏了不少。 我还是觉得它被低估了。净资产（2.926 亿美元纯现金）对比 1.32 亿美元市值。 净资产是 1.05 亿美元，而且零负债。 那企业价值不就大概 2700 万美元？对于一家 2025 财年营收 7060 万美元、GAAP 毛利率 60% 的成长公司来说。 所以估值看起来很离谱。但股票市场偏偏就是这么运作的。
英文原文
As for $VLN, I don't think I'm wrong. But markets clearly disagree with my opnion. I've learned two things: - Some stocks like Japanese ones can trade way under book value - Markets don't like stocks from Israel like $ETOR for some reason (lost a lot on that too). I still think it's undervalued. Net assets ($92.6M pure cash) vs. $132M MC. Net assets is $105M with zero debt. So EV is ~$27M? For a growing company with 60% GAAP gross margins on $70.6M FY 2025 revenue. So valuation looks stupid. But somehow stocks operate that way.
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Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
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伊朗战争或消除以色列及关联股的生存折价，需进一步研究。
我也没料到这一点。也许伊朗战争的后果消除了相关股票如 $NBIS 以及以色列股票如 $ETOR 至 $VLN 的“生存折价因子”（existential discount factor）？ 或者情况是多方面的，因为国防在以色列股市中占很大权重。 鉴于这对我来说是新领域，仍在做更多研究。
英文原文
I was not expecting this as well. Maybe the implications of the Iran war removes Israel’s existential discount factor on correlated stocks like $NBIS and Israeli ones like $ETOR to $VLN? Or its multifaceted since defense makes up a large weighting of the Israel stock exchange. Still doing more research since this is new to me.
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分析某以色列公司财务数据，认为其被严重低估。
@JohnPenisini 是的，我仔细研究过了。看起来被严重低估。 总资产1.34亿美元，市值1.54亿美元，60%利润率下的指引为7600万美元，负债-2970万美元。 不知道为什么市场不喜欢像 $ETOR 或 $VLN 这样的以色列公司。
英文原文
@JohnPenisini Yep I went through it. Looks deeply discounted. Total assets $134m, MC is $154m, $76m guidance off 60% margins, -$29.7m liabilities. Idk why markets dislike Israeli companies like $ETOR or $VLN
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认为VLN因资产占比高被低估，指出市场折价以色列股，关注今日财报。
我仍然认为 $VLN 被低估，因为其资产占市值(Market Cap)的大部分。大约1.1亿美元对比1.58亿美元，你基本上是以4800万美元的价格买入了一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semi)公司？ 但出于某种原因，市场严重折价以色列公司，比如 $ETOR。即使在 Etoro 财报发布后，股价也 barely 恢复。 让我们看看今天即将发布的财报。
英文原文
I still feel like $VLN is undervalued just because assets make up majority of MC. It’s like ~$110M vs $158M and you’re basically buying a fabless semi for $48m? But markets heavily discount Israeli companies for some reason like $ETOR. Even after Etoro earnings it barely recovered. We’ll see in their upcoming earnings today.
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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认为比特币防御性最强，ETOR因高现金储备次之。
@spaghhettimon 是的，比特币(Bitcoin)在那里面可能是防御性最强的。也许是 $ETOR 排第二，因为他们拥有高得离谱的现金储备。
英文原文
@spaghhettimon Yeah Bitcoin is probably the safest up there defensibly. Maybe $ETOR second because of their stupidly high cash balance.
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加密资产大幅回调后机构正在买入，建议等待波动结束并顺势反弹。
我一直参与内存/AI交易，比如 $MU、$SNDK。但像这样的机会并不常见。 所有加密货币相关标的都已重置： 比特币 - 从 $125k 跌至 $70K 以太坊 - 从 $4k 跌至 $2.05K Solana - 从 $233 跌至 $88 $COIN 从 $415 跌至 $162 $CRCL 从 $240 跌至 $56 $GLXY 从 $40 跌至 $19 $ETOR 从 $68 跌至 $26 $MSTR 从 $434 跌至 $132 如果人们认为比特币会回到 $30K，我不知道该说什么。我亲眼看到的每家机构在清算清洗后都在现在买入。 等待波动性过去并顺势反弹很容易。
英文原文
I've been in the memory/AI trade like $MU, $SNDK. But opportunities like this don't come often. Every crypto name has been reset: Bitcoin - $70K from $125k Ethereum - $2.05K from $4k Solana - $88 from $233 $COIN $162 from $415 $CRCL $56 from $240 $GLXY $19 from $40 $ETOR $26 from $68 $MSTR $132 from $434 If people think Bitcoin is going back to $30K idk what to tell you, every institution I've seen personally is buying now after the liquidation wipeout. Easy to wait out volatility and ride the wave back up.
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eToro 估值极低且现金充裕，业务高速增长，严重被低估。
$ETOR 目前绝对是纳斯达克被低估的公司之一。感觉市场已经把它遗忘了。市值 21 亿美元，净现金 12 亿美元，无债务。这意味着经纪业务估值仅为 9 亿美元。远期企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA) 约为 2.6 倍……而大多数同行估值在 10-15 倍以上。凭借现有的 12 亿美元现金储备，几年内 eToro 的现金将超过其市值。第三季度 (Q3) 单季净收入为 5700 万美元。若以此增速推算……仅需 3.9 年。沃尔玛目前的市盈率 (P/E) 高达 45 倍。更不用说 $ETOR 还在增长（例如资产管理规模 (AUM) 同比增长 76%+）。
英文原文
$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ at this point. Feels like markets just forgot about it. $2.1B MC. Net cash $1.2B, no debt. So you're valuing the brokerage at $900m. Forward EV/EBITDA: ~2.6x... Most are valued at 10-15x+. In a couple years, Etoro will have more cash than their marketcap with their existing $1.2B cash pile. Net income per quarter (Q3) was $57 million. If you use that number growing forward... 3.9 years. Walmart is valued at 45 P/E now. Not to mention $ETOR is growing too. (eg. AUM 76%+ Y/Y).
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质疑以色列半导体公司估值脱节及持续下跌原因
是的，对于 $VLN，现金加库存占其市值的绝大部分（未包含IP等其他资产）。它是无晶圆厂半导体公司，营收8000万美元，机器人/工业垂直领域毛利率很高。因此当前估值存在极端脱节。 我最近发了一篇帖子，质疑市场为何像对待 $ETOR 那样，如果是以色列公司，即便现在大部分是现金，也基本不给核心业务估值。 所以简而言之：完全不知道发生了什么，以及为什么以色列公司一直在跌。
英文原文
Yes for $VLN, cash + inventory makes up majority of its MC not including other assets like IP. They’re fabless semi, $80m revenue, high gross margin for robotics/industrial vertical. So current valuation has an extreme disconnect. I put out another post recently questioning how markets basically assign no value to the core business like $ETOR if they’re Israeli when they’re majority cash now. So TLDR: no clue what’s going on and why companies from Israel keep dropping.
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博主坦言投资也有亏损，指出部分AI股估值与现金或基本面严重脱节。
我完全没头绪。很多人看到我发了大量像 $OSS 或 $AXTI 这样的高收益论点帖子，但当我判断错误时，我也确实会亏钱。 而且我确实是真金白银地践行我的观点（skin in the game）。 我曾与其他分析师讨论，他们都感到困惑。对于 $ETOR 和 $VLN，我发现它们与市场的明显脱节，两者交易价格接近其现金余额，但显然市场并不认同我的观点。 如果 $NBIS 正在通过自动取款机(ATM)增发，那稍微说得通一些，但其运营业务并未通过分部加总法(Sum of Parts)得到正确定价。 至于 Nebius，如果市值仍为 210 亿美元，而年底年化经常性收入(ARR)为 70 亿美元，那我就不知道了。
英文原文
I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong. And I do put my money where my mouth is. I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me. $NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly. With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.
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质疑以色列股票估值过低，认为存在分部加总套利机会。
市场对以色列股票有什么偏见吗？ 我在其中一些股票上损失惨重。 $ETOR 和 $VLN 的市值已接近其现金资产价值。 而对于 $NBIS，其投资组合公司 Clickhouse 的估值几乎已超过其主体公司。 尽管地缘政治风险已计入溢价，但这些估值仍显得不合逻辑。 市场几乎将其实际业务价值归零，尽管它们都在增长，特别是 $ETOR（资产管理规模增长 70%+）产生了可观的自由现金流(FCF)。 我 genuinely 感到惊讶，我在想这是否是一个利用资产负债表进行分部加总(SOTP)套利的潜在交易机会。 或者抛售会持续下去？ 这里存在巨大的认知偏差。
英文原文
What do markets have against stocks from Israel? I’ve lost an incredible amount on some of these. Both $ETOR and $VLN are close to cash-assets | marketcap. And with $NBIS their portfolio company Clickhouse is almost worth more than their main company at this point. Geopolitical risks factored into premiums, none of the valuations make sense. The market is assigning close to 0 value to their actual business even through they’re all growing with $ETOR in specific (70%+ AUM growth) producing considerable FCF. Im genuinely surprised, l wonder if it’s a potential trade arbitraging sum of parts to balance sheets. Or would the selloff continue? There’s a huge disconnect.
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质疑市场对以色列股票估值过低，分析ETOR和VLN的财务优势。
对我来说，答案是肯定的。我真的不明白市场为何对以色列股票如 $ETOR、$NBIS 和 $VLN 如此不友好，因为它们是我表现最差的持仓。 我在 Etoro 上亏损了不少，但其持有约一半现金，且企业价值(EV)与远期收益(Forward Earnings)之比约为4倍。资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长77%。 而 $VLN 基本上拥有约1.1亿美元现金/库存，市值为1.7亿美元。营收8000万美元且毛利率很高。 所以个人实在搞不清楚到底发生了什么。
英文原文
To me strong yes. I really don't understand what markets have against Israeli stocks like $ETOR, $NBIS, and $VLN because those are my worst performers. I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y. Then $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins. So personally not quite sure what's going on.
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澄清CPSH军工应用细节，指出海军项目商业化程度高于弹头研发。
这些是高频交易(HFT)算法对我帖子的反应，每当我提到 $ETOR、$VPG、$LEU 等股票代码时，你们都能看到这种现象。 你说得对，我本应该把细微差别表述得更清楚。 我的观点是：国防/太空/工业领域的应用可以延伸至 -> AI。目前的营收数字较低，因为许多仍是研究合同，但它们是许多项目的独家供应商(sole source)。 以下是更正说明： - 美国陆军作战能力发展司令部(DEVCOM)与 $CPSH 签订了一份为期两年的合同，以验证 CPSH 专有的钨注塑工艺能否制造“可控破片”弹头。 - 关于黑鹰直升机(Hawk Helicopters)的信息来自其官网：“维持像 UH-60 黑鹰这样的传统机队，为引入新型材料提供了独特机会。除了提高系统性能和减轻重量外，现代化工作还必须考虑配置灵活性和简洁性，以支持多样化场景下的作战。” - 这是关于设计“新型装甲地板”的小企业创新研究(SBIR)，该地板提供弹道防护，并可应用于传统(UH-60)和未来垂直起降(FVL)旋翼机。 - 关于美国海军，这是其新闻稿的原话：“这些面板是先进弹道屏蔽组件的一部分，旨在支持美国海军航空母舰和其他水面舰艇的弹道防护系统升级。” 上述所有应用场景均为事实。其中，如美国海军战舰的应用相比钨“可控破片”弹头而言，商业化程度更高。
英文原文
These are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts, you see this with every ticker mention I do from $ETOR, $VPG, $LEU, and others. You're correct I should have worded the nuance better. The point was the applicationsfor Defense/Space/Industrial could be used for -> AI. The revenue numbers are low as many are still research contracts but they are sole source for many programs. This is the correction: - U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) had two year contract with $CPSH to see if CPSH’s proprietary injection molding process for tungsten can create "controlled fragmentation" warheads”. - For Hawk Helicators it was from their website "Sustaining legacy fleets, like the UH-60 Black Hawk, provides a unique opportunity to incorporate novel materials. In addition to improving system performance and reducing weight, modernization efforts must consider configurational flexibility and simplicity to support operations across diverse scenarios." - This was SBIR research to design a "novel armored floor that provides ballistic protection and which can be implemented in both legacy (UH-60) and future vertical lift (FVL) rotorcraft" - For US Navy, this was the quote verbatim from their PR: "The panels are an integrated component of advanced ballistic shields developed in support of ballistic protection system upgrades on U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers and other surface ships" All the applications usage above are true. Some, like US Navy Warships, are more commercialized compared to tungsten that can "controlled fragmentation" warheads”.
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警告散户警惕HFT算法抢跑，强调投资需自行研究且无紧迫感。
@Craigstox 是的，这对散户来说是个很好的警告。高频交易(HFT)算法正在抢跑买单然后立即卖出。即使在我发布关于 $ETOR 的内容时，它也随机飙升了3%。 当我发布这类内容时并没有紧迫感（尤其是由于并非适合所有人，请务必自行研究(DYOR)）。
英文原文
@Craigstox Yep that’s a great warning for retail. HFT algorithms are frontrunning buy orders then just selling back. Even when I posted about $ETOR it randomly shot up 3%. There’s no rush when I post this type of stuff (and especially DYOR since it’s not for everyone).
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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指出$ETOR客户反馈不佳，但提供简化指标供参考。
@LongInnovation $ETOR 的客户反馈并不理想。话虽如此，我只是以易于理解的 TLDR（太长不看）格式发布一些信息指标。人们可以随意使用这些信息。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $ETOR customer feedback isn’t great. That being said I’m just posting info metrics in a TLDR format that makes things easy to understand. People can do whatever they want with the information
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反驳看空观点，指出ETOR回本快且SPY成分股业绩强劲。
@ShortsHoward 呃，$ETOR 基本上能在 3.9 年内收回其企业价值(EV)。大多数 $SPY 成分股公司的平均交易市盈率为 22 倍。鉴于其资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长了 76%，它们显然并未陷入困境。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Uh $ETOR basically makes their EV back in 3.9 years. Most $SPY companies are trading 22x avg. They’re not exactly dying given their AUM grew 76% y/y
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指出$ETOR估值极低且增长，对比沃尔玛高估值认为其被低估。
$ETOR 的估值约为 3.9 倍企业价值/自由现金流(EV/FCF)，特此指出。其市值为 26 亿美元，其中 12 亿美元为现金。此外，基于 1% 的利率下调模型，预计 2026 年自由现金流(FCF) 为 3.5-3.8 亿美元。而且公司还在增长。当沃尔玛(WMT) 的市盈率(P/E) 高达 42.2 倍时，这种估值显得有点荒谬。https://t.co/1k57wE5juP
英文原文
$ETOR is trading at ~3.9x EV/FCF just putting that out there. $2.6B MC, $1.2B of it is in cash. Then they’re doing est. $350-$380m FCF for 2026, modeling 1% interest rate cuts. And growing too. Valuation seems a bit absurd when you have Walmart out there at 42.2 p/e. https://t.co/1k57wE5juP
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作者买入$NODE并认为$ETOR估值极低，因高现金和强劲FCF使其极具吸引力。
完全同意该论点以及买入 $NODE 的决定。在这些价位上，$ETOR 的估值简直是个笑话。 在做了一些简单的粗略计算后，我自己也买了几十万美元的仓位。 当其中约 12 亿美元是现金时，26 亿美元的估值说不通。 此外，他们预计 2026 年将带来 3.5 亿至 3.7 亿美元的自由现金流（FCF）（假设利率下调 1%）。 因此，以 3.9 倍的企业价值/自由现金流（EV/FCF）买入这家公司，看起来就像白送房地产一样。
英文原文
Fully agree with the thesis and $NODE purchase. $ETOR valuation looks like a joke at these levels. I ended up buying few hundred thousand worth of myself after doing some slight napkin math calculations. $2.6B valuation doesn’t make sense when ~$1.2B of it is cash. Then they’re bringing in est. $350-$370m FCF in 2026, from some calc (fact 1% interest rate cut) So buying a company at EV/FCF is 3.9x which looks like free real estate.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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建议对$FLY进行税务亏损收割并一月后重买，以优化税务并降低杠杆风险。
所以 $FLY 在这里挺有意思，因为它处于税务亏损收割(tax harvesting)的范围内，毕竟年初至今(YTD)已下跌57%。 我喜欢它，因为它是针对2026年中型起降(medium-lift)市场的布局，并非短期持有标的。 但既然你使用了过多的杠杆(margin)，那么现在进行税务亏损收割，然后在一个月后重新买入(re-rebuy)可能是一个好主意，这样你可以在一个月后以可能相似的成本持有相同头寸，同时降低应税收益(taxable gains)。 是的，正如你所说，在更好的时机进行税务亏损收割比在下跌6.3%后立即操作更好，虽然感觉不太好，但年底(EOY)很难逆着税务亏损收割的潮流而行，我个人在交易像 $SNAP 或 $ETOR 这类股票时也总是低估这一点。
英文原文
So $FLY is a interesting one here because it's in the tax harvesting lot since it's down 57% YTD. I like it because it's a 2026 play for medium-lift, not exactly a short term hold. But since you're using too much margin, then it might be a good idea to tax harvest now then re-rebuy 1 month later, so you can lower any taxable gains while having the same position 1 month later at possibly similar costs. Yeah as you mentioned better to tax harvest on a better time rather than right after a 6.3% drop, feels bad but it's hard to go against the tax-harvesting flow EOY and I always underestimate it too personally when trading stuff like $SNAP or $ETOR.
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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反思机构年底税务收割效应及RDDT买入逻辑
是的，我总是低估对冲基金/机构（Institutions）的税务收割（Tax Harvesting）效应。每当像 $ETOR 这样的股票下跌 2% 时，我会想“不可能再低了”，结果它确实更低了。这仅适用于年底（10月/11月/12月初）年内下跌的股票。是的，我在周五 $190 时买入 $RDDT，随后它反弹至 $195，鉴于大家都用它，它肯定能站稳。
英文原文
Yeah I always underestimate tax harvesting effects from hedge funds/institutions. Whenever a stock like $ETOR goes 2% lower, I think "it can't get any lower than this" then it does. This only applies end of year for Oct/Nov/early December for stocks down on the year. Yeah I bought $RDDT at $190 on Friday before it recovered to $195, it's definitely here to stay since everyone uses it lol.
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解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
英文原文
That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
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博主复盘今年亏损持仓，总结税务收割、迷因股及期权交易教训。
周末反思 ☁️ 我想列出今年所有亏损的持仓+经验教训。 ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, 定投 $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (新) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (新) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (新) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (新) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (新) 我发了很多股票，很高兴只有约7只短期看错（抱歉如果漏了一两只），还有约5只没踩准绝对底部。 我仍然认为它们会在2026年大涨，输家不多！ 个人反思 1. $ETOR: 基本面很好的股票。即使下跌~20%，我相信它会在2026年恢复。1/3现金，以盈透证券(IBKR)的速度增长。它受税务收割(tax-harvesting)效应影响（10月/11月），因为对冲基金卖出并在12月回购。 经验教训：无，我会再做一次。持有至2026年。为税务收割小幅减仓。 2. $VIRT: 如果我买看涨期权，可能不应该公开发布，因为这会影响对冲资金流。临近两次降息（对股市利好）时减仓进行税务收割。对冲有效但损失不少。 经验教训：对冲操作保密。仍然认为方向正确，只是想税务收割。 3. $SNAP: 在$8.2左右发布，当时他们将记忆功能转化为收入。这是2026年的布局，不担心短期税务收割。 经验教训：无。持有至2026年。 4. $SG: 说实话，我只是喜欢沙拉🥗。今年早些时候是$35+。我认为它最终会恢复，只是等待游戏，因为现在约1倍市销率(p/s)？ 经验教训：无。中期持有。 5. $GRRR: 调查其$14亿合同后迁移至$WLAC，看起来可疑。被$3.8亿市值对比$14亿收入潜力所诱。 经验教训：相信对可疑公司的直觉。如果属实可能5倍，但我不信任。可能不该进入。（已减仓） 6. $FLY: 下跌~12%，仍然是2026年中期升力布局。最近发布，时机可能更好。 经验教训：无，也许税务收割时机更好。 7. $LTC: 下跌~20%。加密货币被清算+政府停摆延迟ETF批准所重创。 经验教训：不要杠杆炒币。政府停摆延迟ETF批准哈哈。 8. $OPAD: 之前卖出，但当前价格-36%。我冲进去的迷因股(meme stock)。 经验教训：不要碰迷因股。 9. $CRM: 因短期期权+错过财报日损失~30%。波段交易搞砸了。 经验教训：始终检查财报日，只是一次性错误，以前没犯过。 10. $AMZN: 它是亚马逊。有时下跌1%。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 11. $RDDT: 以为$200是底部，进一步下跌。平均成本降至$190。 经验教训：无。刚发布不久。 12. $WULF: 因为所有新云(neoclouds)都在涨而买入。$14.5买入，跌至$14。 经验教训：不要盲目追高(ape)。时机可能更好。 _ 税务收割总结 除了新持仓($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF)和提到的中期布局如$FLY（持有至2026年）外，大部分输家为年底税务收割而减仓。 TLDR: - 年底不要重仓税务收割股（如$LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP）。如果择时，等12月。 - 停止交易迷因股如$OPAD。 - 当SEA相关公司看起来可疑时相信直觉($GRRR)。 - 期权资金流影响流动性较差的股票（如$VIRT）。3月看涨期权可能仍会大涨，其他人买入可能影响行情，只是想税务收割。 其他交易如$AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF非常新，也许时机更好，但没踩准绝对底部。 _ 总体而言，目前还好！我数不清有多少100%+的收益...输家数量仍然很少，无论是数量还是仓位规模。
英文原文
Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.