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感叹价值股投资者都被这轮周期淘汰了
我感觉这轮周期里，所有做 $FISV、$PYPL、$NVO 这类价值 / 股息投资的人都“灭绝”了？ 去年还很流行…… 但如果你转去做 $INTC 或 $SNDK 这类半导体，年内其实已经能赚 200-400%+。 X 上现在全是 AI 瓶颈话题，感觉这波趋势还是我带起来的？ https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr
英文原文
I feel like all the $FISV, $PYPL, $NVO value/dividend investors went extinct this cycle? Was very popular, even last year… But if you pivoted to semis like $INTC or $SNDK, you would be up 200-400%+ YTD. X feed is just AI bottlenecks now, feel like I helped start a new trend? https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr
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HIMS 还是太低估
即便在以下情况之后，$HIMS 仍然下跌了 44%，这件事还是挺不可思议的： 1. $NVO 去风险化 + 合作 2. 多项全球收购扩大了 DTC 分销网络 3. 肽类叙事，Huberman 还说在这些条件下 HIMS 会起飞 4. 进入了更友好的宏观环境 5. 空头比例达到了不可持续的 36%+ 好消息是：空头比例不可能占流通盘太多……所以随着时间推移，回补本身就会形成买盘压力，只要基本面改善，向下空间也会被限制住。
英文原文
It’s still pretty incredible $HIMS is down 44% even after: 1. $NVO de-risking + partnership 2. Multiple global acquisitions expanding DTC distribution network 3. Peptide arc, with Huberman saying HIMS was set to soar under these conditions 4. Entering a friendlier macro climate. 5. Short interest reaching unsustainable 36%+ The good news is: short interest can only be so much of the float… So it’s inherent buying pressure to cover over time, which does limit downside if fundamentals improves.
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称该公告是 HIMS 收入再加速的最强催化。
这条公告是到目前为止最利好 $HIMS 收入再加速的催化剂。 而且背景还是： - 流通盘有 30%+ 被做空 - 新的 $NVO 合作 / 诉讼刚出 - 新的全球并购 - 宏观环境回暖。 股价现在仍只有 25 美元，低于去年 70 美元。 做空者很可能要麻烦了： $HIMS 可以以他们复合产品常见的 70%-80% 毛利率，去抢占 peptides 这个“灰色市场” TAM 的理想蛋糕。 - 例如：Healing：BPC-157 和 Thymosin beta-4 - 头发与皮肤：GHK-Cu - 减重与增肌：MOTS-c 和 Ibutamoren 而且借助新的并购，它们现在大概成了全球最大的独立 DTC 分销网络…… 所以只要跑一个 peptide 方案订阅，每位订户每月 150 到 300 美元，20 万订户就是 3.6 亿美元以上的高毛利 ARR。 这还只是一个例子，但现在它们已经有全球客户网络了。 去年他们还烧了 capex 去收购 peptide 生产设施……现在这已经变成一个巨大的现金奶牛业务。 我之前就说过，$HIMS 要让空头回补，需要基本面发生变化，而这条消息大概就是市场数据上看到的那个信号。 而 $HIMS 正在因为监管去风险而变成一家基本面更扎实的公司。
英文原文
This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date. This is amid: - 30%+ of the float sold short - new $NVO partnership/lawsuit dropped - new global acquisitions - recovering macro climate. The share price is still $25, down from $70 last year. Short sellers are likely in trouble: $HIMS can capture market share at the ~70%-80% gross margins typical of their compounded products for the holy grail of the "Grey Market" TAM for peptides. - EG. Healing: BPC-157 and Thymosin beta-4 - Hair & Skin: GHK-Cu - Weight Loss & Muscle: MOTS-c and Ibutamoren And now they're probably the world's largest independent DTC distribution network to date from their new acquisitions... So just running a peptide protocol subscription between $150 to $300, for 200k subscribers is $360M+ in high-margin ARR. As just one example, but now they have a worldwide net of customers. They burned through capex last year to acquire peptide manufacturing facilities too... so now that's turned into a massive cash-cow business. I said $HIMS would need fundamental changes in order to force shorts to cover, and this is probably that signal as seen with market data. And $HIMS is turning into a fundamentally sound company after regulatory de-risking.
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认为诺和诺德撤诉并合作 HIMS 让很多人措手不及
@alc2022 这事说得通，不过 $NVO 撤诉并转而和 $HIMS 合作，对大多数人来说确实是个意外。 这一下明显打了很多人一个措手不及，尤其是那些没回补、还以为 $HIMS 会完蛋的做空者。
英文原文
@alc2022 Makes sense though given $NVO dropping the lawsuit and partnering with $HIMS was a surprise to majority of people. Definitely caught a lot of people off guard, especially short sellers that didn’t cover and thought $HIMS was going under
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从基本面角度看 HIMS，但空头挤压风险很高
我一直想从基本面角度聊 $HIMS。 但有一点必须强调： $HIMS 的方向性空头现在像被困住了。 股价已经涨了 64.15%，到 26.5 美元了（虽然仍比 70 多美元的高点低）。 与此同时，空头持仓却增加到了创纪录的 41.6%。 这可能会形成剧烈的反馈回路，因为空头会越来越浮亏。 不过，这一切都取决于股价能否继续被买盘和基本面改善推高；只有这样，他们才会被迫平仓。 否则如果价格横盘，他们可以在很长时间里继续维持空头头寸（借券成本也低），然后慢慢回补。 话虽如此，我个人还是在场，挺期待看看 $HIMS 能交出什么： 一方面是最近类似 $META 的全球并购扩张； 另一方面是类似 $HOOD 的交叉销售潜在收入机会。 随着 $HIMS 在 $NVO 意外合作之后基本面快速改善，我个人真的觉得它有机会创造历史。
英文原文
I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint. But this cannot be understated: $HIMS directional shorts look trapped. The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s). While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%. There may be a violent feedback loop as short positions go more underwater. However; this is contingent on the underlying stock going up from buying pressure and increasing fundamentals. In order for their positions get liquidated. Otherwise, if prices stagnates, they can leave their short sales in for extended periods of time (low borrow rate) and slowly buy to cover. That being said, I'm personally along for the ride and looking forward to seeing what $HIMS can deliver: Both from their recent $META-like global acquisitions spree + $HOOD-like cross selling latent revenue opportunities. With $HIMS rapidly improving fundamentals, from the surprise $NVO partnership: I personally see a real opportunity for $HIMS to make history.
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继续看多 HIMS 的商业化潜力与空头挤压
$HIMS 现在又涨回了 14.22%。 他们全球 DTC 零售分发护城河中尚未释放的潜在收入极其惊人。 这也让人联想到 $META 早期的并购，以及 $HOOD 的交叉销售能力。 $HIMS 仍然比 70 多美元的高点低不少，但它已经通过收购三家全球主要竞争对手，而且几乎没有监管阻力。 更妙的是：那些把 40%+ 流通盘方向性做空的空头，已经被 $NVO 的意外合作和诉讼终止彻底困住了。 我个人会在这里继续持有并做多 HIMS。 如果管理层真能把这张全球零售分发网络有效变现，用在医疗上，这个风险回报是值得的。
英文原文
$HIMS is now back up 14.22%. The untapped latent revenue from their their global DTC retail distribution moat is extreme. And draws parallels to the early acquisitions from $META. As well as the cross-selling capabilities of $HOOD. $HIMS is still down from it's $70+ highs, after acquiring three major global competitors without regulatory friction. And best of yet: Shorts that sold 40%+ of the company short directionally, are completely trapped from the surprising $NVO partnership + lawsuit termination. I would personally hold and go long here on HIMS. The risk/reward on management effectively monetizing that massive, global retail distribution network for healthcare seems worth it.
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类比META和HOOD，看好HIMS全球DTC网络变现潜力。
难道没人看到 $HIMS、$META 和 $HOOD 之间的相似之处吗？ $HIMS 真的刚刚收购了全球最大的几家竞争对手： - Zava（欧洲/英国） - Livewell（加拿大） - Eucalyptus（澳大利亚/日本） 而且没有被反垄断阻止？ $META 十年前收购 WhatsApp 和 Instagram 这类公司时，也是几乎没有遇到阻力。 如今，由于 $META 最终成为万亿美元级垄断企业后留下的监管 PTSD，社交媒体公司已经不能再四处大举收购。 而 $HIMS 在这一轮并购之后，已经成为全球最大的独立零售 DTC（直接面向消费者）分销网络。 现在它只需要弄清楚，如何像 $HOOD 面向金融产品那样做交叉销售？ $HOOD 此前也遇到过 SEC 和 Gary 试图阻止其所有加密产品的情况。但自从监管麻烦清除后，他们通过向零售用户交叉销售金融科技产品，成功扩张成了一家700亿美元公司。 我看到了 $NVO / 监管机构试图阻止 $HIMS 产品供应之间的强烈相似之处。 不过，在 $NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作、FDA 也撤回威胁后，这种监管不确定性已经消除。潜力是存在的？ 我不可能是唯一一个看到 $HIMS 全球 DTC 零售分销网络及其潜在收入变现机会的人吧？
英文原文
Does nobody else see the parallels to $HIMS and $META and $HOOD? $HIMS literally just bought out the largest players around the world: - Zava (Europe/UK) - Livewell (Canada) - Eucalyptus (Australia/Japan) Without antitrust blocking it? $META did that a decade ago with companies like WhatsApp and Instagram with minimal friction. Now no social media company anymore can go on buying sprees due to regulator PTSD after $META ended up a trillion dollar monopoly. $HIMS now is the largest independent global retail DTC distribution network in the world, after their M&A spree. And just needs to figure out how to cross-sell products like what $HOOD did for financial products? $HOOD previously had the SEC + Gary trying to block all their crypto offerings. But ever since they got regulatory headaches cleared up, they managed to scale to become a $70B company off cross-selling fintech products to their retail audience. I'm seeing strong parallels to $NVO / Regulators trying to block $HIMS product offerings. However, that regulatory uncertainty is now cleared up after $NVO partnered with $HIMS and FDA dropped their threats. The potential is there? I can't be the only one who sees potential from $HIMS global DTC retail distribution network and latent revenue monetization?
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诺华合作撤诉消除$HIMS法律风险，基本面发生巨大转变。
是的，40%的SI（短期兴趣）此前是合理的。 在$NVO（诺华）达成合作并撤销诉讼之前，我对$HIMS也持看跌态度，这为$HIMS带来了收入流扩张和更明确的监管前景。 该诉讼曾威胁其整个资产负债表+收入增长+全球扩张，因此空头大量做空是合理的。 然而，上周五$HIMS的法律纠纷在一天内全部消失，这是十年来最大的惊喜。 这是一个巨大的基本面转变。
英文原文
Yes the 40% SI made sense earlier. I was bearish on $HIMS too until $NVO partnered up + dropped the lawsuit, giving $HIMS revenue stream expansion and more regulatory clarity. The lawsuit was threatening their entire balance sheet + revenue growth + global expansion, so it made sense why short sellers piled on. However, it was the biggest surprise of the decade last Friday when $HIMS's legal drama all vanished in a day. This is a massive fundamental shift.
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回顾HOOD监管解禁后解锁新收入流，类比HIMS前景。
事后诸葛亮。 当我在 $16 时做多 $HOOD 时，我意识到他们也可以通过加密货币(Crypto)和其他方式扩张。 然而，分析师们给出的 $HOOD 目标价仅为 $8-12，因为他们看不到其他收入流的变现能力。 这与 $HIMS 面临 GLP + $NVO 诉讼的情况类似，Gary Gensler 回归后，SEC 也试图阻止其新的加密货币产品，并最终起诉了 $HOOD。 然而，自从他们解决了这一监管问题后： 他们现在解锁了许多新的收入流，而加密货币是其中最大的一块。 我确实看到了 $NVO 和美国政府现在给 $HIMS 绿灯之间的相似之处。 金融科技/券商认为他们无法“轻松交叉销售”，但 $HOOD 成功打破了这一范式。 我不知道 $HIMS 是否也能做到，但我们会见分晓。
英文原文
Hindsight 20/20. When I was long $HOOD back at $16, I realized they could expand via Crypto and other methods too. However, analysts were all giving Robinhood $8-12 PTs because they didn't see capacity for monetization of other revenue streams. Similar to $HIMS with GLP + $NVO lawsuits, Gary Gensler back + SEC were also tried blocking their new crypto products and ended up suing $HOOD. However, ever since they cleared up that regulatory issue: They've now unlocked many new revenue streams and crypto is one of the biggest ones. I do see parallels with $NVO and US Gov now giving $HIMS the green light. Fintech/Brokerages thought they couldn't "cross-sell easily" but $HOOD managed to break that paradigm. IDK if $HIMS can do it too but we'll find out.
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分析$HIMS全球用户变现潜力，类比$HOOD/$META，建议做多。
感觉大家没有正确阐述 $HIMS 的多头逻辑： 这是我的观点。 $HIMS 的主要护城河是零售受众的网络捕获。 而多头逻辑在于潜在收入的货币化。 $HOOD 在 2025 年的金融科技领域实现了同样的效果。 $META（完全成熟后）在过去十年的社交媒体领域也实现了同样的效果。 $HIMS 现在正处于 2026 年的起点。 但鉴于 Zava + Eucalyptus 带来了全球（欧洲、澳大利亚、日本、加拿大）数百万新用户： $HIMS 现在在医疗领域拥有了独一无二的零售受众捕获能力。 然而，与市值约 700 亿美元的 Robinhood 和 1.6 万亿美元的 $META 巨头不同的是： 它们已经通过利润率优化和新收入流成功货币化了其零售受众。 而且非常激进。$HIMS 尚未做到。 Robinhood 通过推出银行/信用卡/预测市场等新产品做到了这一点。 现在这些新产品各自独立产生超过 1 亿美元的新收入流。 $META 通过收购 WhatsApp/Instagram 后最大化捕获每用户收入做到了这一点。 然而，$HIMS 尚未像在美国那样（例如睾酮疗法）获得同样的机会。部分原因是之前的诉讼。 现在这些障碍已清除，多头逻辑再次显现： 与其建模 Zava/Eucalyptus 传统带来的收入，重要的是关注通过人数实现的零售网络捕获。 因为这是最大的潜在收入来源 + 未被定价的收入预测超预期。 现在，十亿美元的问题是： $HIMS 最终会像 $HOOD 吗？ $HIMS 现在拥有医疗领域最大的零售网络 + 分销渠道之一。 然而，与金融科技或社交媒体渠道相比，医疗领域的交叉销售似乎更难。 它最终是成为 3000 亿美元公司还是 500 亿美元公司，取决于管理层能否解决这一问题。 因此，对于旁观者来说，如果 $HIMS 能够设法从新的全球用户群中实现潜在收入扩张，再次做多可能值得。~40%+ 的做空比例和新的 $NVO 合作也是巨大的加分项。
英文原文
Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly: Here's my view. The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences. And the bull case is latent revenue monetization. $HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025. $META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade. $HIMS is now at the starting point in 2026. But given millions of new users across the globe (Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada) from Zava + Eucalyptus: $HIMS now has that one-of-a-kind retail audience capture in the healthcare sector. However, the difference between ~$70B companies in Robinhood and $1.6T giants in $META is that: They've already successfully monetized their retail audiences both through margin optimization, and new revenue streams. And very aggressively. $HIMS has not yet. Robinhood did so by pushing new products from banking/credit cards/prediction markets/etc. And they are all now independently generating $100m+ each as new revenue streams. $META did so by capturing the maximum amount of revenue per user after acquiring WhatsApp/Instagram. However, $HIMS has not gotten the chance to yet in the same way they did with the US (eg. Testosterone). Especially partially due to former lawsuits. Now that's cleared up, the bull case can be seen again: Instead of modeling what revenue Zava/Eucalyptus traditionally brought, the important thing to look at is retail network capture through # of people. As this is biggest source of latent revenue + revenue projection beats not priced in. Now, the billion dollar question is: Will $HIMS end up like $HOOD? $HIMS now has the one of the largest retail networks + distribution for healthcare. However, cross-selling seems much harder in healthcare vs. fintech or social media channels. The answer whether it ends up a $30B company or a $5B one is up for management to figure out. So for people on the sideline, it might be worth flipping long again in the off-chance $HIMS manages to figure out latent revenue expansion from their new global userbase. The ~40%+ short interest and the new $NVO partnership serves as a huge bonus as well.
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HIMS宣布与NVO合作，高做空率或引发类似GME的空头挤压。
突发消息：$HIMS 首席执行官宣布与 $NVO 建立合作伙伴关系。 这证实了彭博社周五的报道。 鉴于超过40%的流通盘被做空，且与诺和诺德(Novo)的合作关系透明化： 下周该股将成为以下双方的战场： 散户 vs. 做空者。 如果散户获胜且不投降，可能会引发类似游戏驿站(GameStop)从3美元涨至150美元以上的最大规模空头挤压(short squeeze)之一。
英文原文
Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO. This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg. With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership: This next week will end up as a battleground stock for: Retail vs. Short Seller. And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.
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$HIMS因与$NVO合作及基本面反转，周一或现逼空行情。
$HIMS 隔夜交易即将开始，周五收盘价为 $22。 此前该股交易价为 $70，但鉴于： - $NVO / 美国政府诉讼威胁使公司破产 - $HIMS 来自 GLP-1 的收入减速。 空头做空了该公司 40% 以上的流通盘。 所有这一切在周五盘后发生了逆转，据彭博社报道，$NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作，这是一个极其令人惊讶的事件。 由于收入重新加速、为全球扩张进行的新收购、资产负债表无破产威胁，以及现在与 $NVO 的合作： 空头现在面临无限亏损，做空了接近一半的流通盘。 目前的格局看起来非常适合发生逼空(short squeeze)。 然而，结果主要取决于散户的反应，或者他们是否会向空头投降。 无论如何，每个人都会关注周一，看看 $HIMS 的仙人掌药丸(cactus pills)是否能作为对抗原油的宏观经济避险资产。
英文原文
$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22. Previously it traded at $70, but given: - $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company - $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1. Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float. All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO: Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short. And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers. Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.
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警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
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HIMS利空出尽基本面反转，周一或现历史性空头挤压，作者计划买入。
周一可能创造历史。 因为历史上最大规模的空头挤压之一可能正在上演。 > 机构做空了 $HIMS 40% 的流通股（规模极大） > 预期其营收增长为 0 > 押注 FDA 和 $NVO 会让该公司破产 然而，所有转折都在一天内发生： > $HIMS 与 Novo Nordisk 的诉讼被撤销。 > Hims 营收突然再次加速。 > 与此同时，$HIMS 通过 Eucalyptus 扩展至加拿大、澳大利亚和日本。 > $HIMS 通过 Zava 扩展至英国和欧洲。 > 现在突然拥有了合法的全球分销网络、健康的资产负债表、与 $NVO 的合作关系，以及 40% 的流通股被做空。 可能没人预料到这一点。 尤其是那些认为 HIMS 会破产、现在面临数十亿美元无限亏损的空头。 我也曾看空 $HIMS，但这确实是一个巨大的反转故事。 两种可能的场景： 1. 如果所有空头周一同时平仓，可能会发生类似大众汽车式的空头挤压。 很可能一些空头为了风险管理想在其他人之前以 $22 的价格退出，这将引发即时的买盘压力。 2. 另一种场景是随着 $NVO 合作关系的建立，$HIMS 的增长重新点燃，并随着公司基本面改善，出现类似 $TSLA 式的缓慢挤压。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 $70，现在回到 $22，且兼具法律清晰度和营收加速。 我个人会在周一跳上这艘船，添柴加火，看看事态如何发展。 这可能是历史的缔造时刻。
英文原文
Monday could make history. As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold. > Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large) > expecting 0 revenue growth > betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company All in one day: > $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped. > Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again. > All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime. > $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava > Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted. Likely 0 people expected this. Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted. I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story. The two likely scenarios: 1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure. 2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve. Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration. I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads. Could be history in the making.
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HIMS与NVO合作消息令市场及空头意外
@pepemoonboy 我相当确定 $HIMS 的消息让所有人都措手不及，尤其是所有的空头。完全没想到 $HIMS 会和 $NVO 达成合作，这真是出乎意料。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Pretty sure the $HIMS news caught everyone off guard, especially all the short sellers. Did not expect a $HIMS partnership with $NVO out of all things.
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$HIMS 与 $NVO 和解合作，盘后大涨 37% 或引发逼空。
恭喜 $HIMS 的持有者，盘后股价回升 37%。 看来 $NVO 撤回了诉讼，并与 $HIMS 合作销售 NOVO 品牌的 GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）药物。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 70 美元，且一度成为被做空最多的股票之一。 看到因利好消息引发的逼空行情（Short Squeeze）我并不感到惊讶。
英文原文
Congrats to the $HIMS holders, stock back up 37% after hours. It looks like $NVO dropped the lawsuit and partnered with $HIMS to sell NOVO branded GLP-1s. Given HIMS was once trading at $70 and became one of the most shorted stocks. Would not be surprised to see a short squeeze off the positive news.
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HIMS遭NVO及政府诉讼，减肥药业务受阻，图表分析无效。
$HIMS 遭到 $NVO 和美国政府的疯狂诉讼。减肥化合物药物是其收入增长的主要途径，潜在的诉讼意味着其资产负债表存在危险信号。如果诉讼失败，$HIMS 可能会恢复。该图表本身毫无意义。
英文原文
$HIMS got sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US GOV. Compound weight loss drugs was their primary avenue for revenue growth and potential lawsuit means red flags for their balance sheet. If the lawsuit fell through, $HIMS would likely recover. That chart means nothing by itself
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讽刺监管时机，认为HIMS案实为保护大药企股东。
两年前，Solana 和加密资产被定性为“非法”，许多创始人因涉及“证券”交易而面临执法威胁甚至入狱风险。 在 $NVO 股价下跌 8% 之后，这一时机的出现真是令人啼笑皆非。 $HIMS 的案例看起来更像是以“安全”为由，保护大型制药公司的股东利益。
英文原文
Solana and crypto assets were “illegal” 2 years ago and many founders were threatened with enforcement + jail for dealing with “securities”. The timing of this after $NVO’s share price went down 8% is hilarious to watch. The $HIMS case looks more like protecting big pharma shareholders over “safety” reasons.
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类比监管打压，批评药企与银行游说扼杀创新。
这看起来为何与2022年Gary Gensler试图将$HOOD和Coinbase创始人送进监狱的情景如此相似？ $HIMS在4年后正在做创新的事情，而大型制药公司（Big Pharma）正在游说禁止它。 稳定币（Stablecoins）和银行目前的情况也是如此，在“清晰法案（Clarity Act）”下，以保护消费者免受稳定币收益风险为幌子。 到了这一步，当$NVO和摩根大通（JP Morgan）可以以“安全原因”游说这些政客时，美国的创新也就到此为止了。
英文原文
Why does this looks eerily similar to Gary Gensler trying to jail $HOOD and Coinbase founders back in 2022? $HIMS is doing something innovative now 4 years later and big pharma is lobbying to ban it. Same with Stablecoins and Banks right now with the “Clarity Act” under the guise of protecting consumers from the safety with stablecoin yields. At this point, so much for innovation in America when $NVO and JP Morgan can lobby these politicians for “safety reasons”.
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看好格陵兰局势利好国防及稀土，认为对AI交易仅为噪音。
我是一个看好格陵兰贸易紧张局势的看多者。 美国国防股如 $UAVS 和 $DPRO 可能会受益。稀土/关键材料也是如此。 但无法对 $NVO 的制药看多者、欧洲奢侈品如 $LVMH，或者可能的大科技股说同样的话。 正如你提到的，我同意这对 AI 交易来说只是噪音。
英文原文
I'm a bull that's excited about Greenland trade tensions. US defense like $UAVS and $DPRO are likely to benefit. Same with rare earth/critical materials. Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO, European luxury like $LVMH, or possibly big tech. As you mentioned, I agree it's just noise to the AI trade.
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批评盲目跟风，强调投资需基于实质性估值分析。
谢谢，我快速浏览了一下（未做事实核查），这是一篇关于 $NVO 的很棒的文章。 我不指望原帖作者（OP）能达到你这样的尽职调查(DD)水平，但当 OP 不断发帖称其“便宜”时，至少应给出一些实质性的解释。 4%的股息率和双位数的销售额增长，对于任何进行估值的人来说都毫无意义。 但粉丝可能只是盲目跟随，而不是基于有信息量的信息做出自己的选择。
英文原文
Thanks did a quick skim (didn’t fact check tho), that’s a great write up for $NVO. I don’t expect your level of DD from OP but at least when OP keeps posting“cheap”, at least give some substance in an explanation. 4% dividend and double digit sales growth just means absolutely jack to anyone doing valuations. But followers might just blindly follow rather than making their own choices based on informative info.
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批评仅凭“便宜”而无实质分析的帖子误导粉丝。
@dividenddude 恕我直言，这类帖子基本上没有任何实质内容或分析。你昨天对 $FI 说“便宜”，现在又对 $NVO 这么说。用毫无用处的解释声称某物“便宜”，只会让粉丝盲目亏钱。
英文原文
@dividenddude With all due respect, there’s basically zero substance or analysis from these types of posts. You’ve done this with $FI yesterday saying “CHEAP” then this again with $NVO. Saying something is cheap with useless explanations is how followers end up blindly losing money.
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建议做多NBIS/WLAC及TSM/AMZN看涨期权，认为当前是最佳做多时机。
@capybara_830 说实话，$NBIS、$WLAC，然后将 $NVO 拆分并买入 6 个月后的 $TSM 和 $AMZN 看涨期权，听起来太完美了。目前已有两次降息预期，且市场刚经历回调，正进入季节性表现最佳的月份。如果现在有任何时机做多，那就是现在。
英文原文
@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful. There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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博主区分成长与价值投资，推荐不同周期的个股组合。
@DeepIceValue 哈哈，我看到了 $NVO 和 $UNH，然后看了你的主页，意识到你更偏向价值投资(Value Investing)。如果让我选，1-2 年周期我会选 $NBIS 或 $TSM。3 年周期我会选 $RKLB。价值投资组合(Value Investing Basket)会是：$TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO。
英文原文
@DeepIceValue lol I saw NVO and UNH and then looked at your profile and realized it was more so value investing. If I had to choose, would be $NBIS or $TSM 1-2 years. Then $RKLB for a 3 year timeframe. Value investing basket would be: $TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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50万美金组合应集中高确信度持仓，风险等级不同需审慎。
@TheLongAJ 同样的逻辑适用于50万美元的投资组合，只需按比例增加高确信度股票的权重，并剔除如 $NVO 或 $BITF 等持仓以集中加仓你偏好的标的，如果你愿意承担更多成长/风险的话。 我只是说风险等级不同，如果我的朋友亏钱我会感觉非常糟糕。
英文原文
@TheLongAJ Same thesis applies with a $500k portfolio, just scale up weightings for conviction, and remove some like $NVO or $BITF to scale up the ones you like if you want to take on more growth/risk. I'm just saying risk level is different, I'd feel really bad if my friend lost money.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
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建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。
一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。
英文原文
Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.
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推荐SG等7只股票的波段机会，警示避开CRCL等3只股票的下跌。
目前有一些不错的超跌反弹/波段交易机会： 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 远离这些下跌（不要抄底）： 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
英文原文
Some decent recovery/swing trades right now 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 Stay away from these dips 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
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UPWK估值极低且期权信号积极，是极具吸引力的价值投资标的。
$UPWK 是最安全的价值投资标的，甚至优于 $UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL 等。做市商清洗了 Upwork 8月15日到期的看涨期权未平仓合约，目前股价正在反弹，理应高于 $17.5+。一家年营收 7.7 亿美元、毛利率约 80% 的 18 亿美元软件公司，几乎是白送的钱。
英文原文
$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others. Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+. A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.