$HOOD
观点汇总
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Sereny 视 HOOD 为高确信度的核心多头持仓，核心论点基于其庞大的散户基础、40%+的营收增长及银行业务等颠覆性催化剂。他看重其在加密经纪商板块的龙头地位，认为其被纳入标普500指数将引发被动资金大幅流入，并类比 PLTR 的爆发潜力。观点演变上，早期他将其作为高贝塔股在9月建议降低风险，随后因纳入指数及降息预期转为强烈看涨，甚至预测其市值可能飙升至4000亿美元。尽管他承认HOOD受金融科技领域限制难以在5年内达万亿市值，且批评其期权执行质量差，但他仍将其作为长期持有标的。操作层面，他在18美元时重仓，并在纳入指数当日加仓32.5万美元，近期虽因获利了结部分仓位，但仍将其列为“持有”并建议利用高隐含波动率进行期权卖方策略或波段交易。
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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称短线买入IBIT和ETHA，但加密下跌伤害HOOD/COIN等。
回复 @RockyKh49376975：我今天最后在 6.2万美元 / 1750美元价位买了 $IBIT 和 $ETHA。 只是做波段交易，不是长期持有。 但价格下跌会伤害 $HOOD / $COIN 和其他公司。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 I ended up buying $IBIT and $ETHA today at $62K / $1.75K. Just swing trading those, not long term holding. But prices dropping hurts $HOOD / $COIN and the others.
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批评银行游说的监管法案压制加密创新。
好吧，看起来 $COIN、$HOOD、$CRCL 等又到了一年里的那个时候。 如果他们试图强推银行游说的 Clarity Act 法案，禁止任何形式的创新或与银行竞争，那所谓“友好政府”和“战略储备”也就不过如此了……
英文原文
Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with https://t.co/zypbwwqt3x
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SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
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庆祝粉丝突破 30 万并预告新东西
我刚刚突破 30 万粉丝！ 这真是个里程碑！从一开始，我的目标就是从第一天起就帮助散户，而不是机构。 不过话说回来……我最近可能把 $IBKR 也帮得太多了，出现了成千上万新的“Serenity Accounts”。 $HOOD 的散户们……别担心。我在给你们准备点惊喜，先稳住。 也许 6 到 8 周？ 不管怎样，很高兴看到我的想法得到了这么多验证。 也希望我接下来做的事，能给 X 上“信息民主化”的正向总和，留下一个长久的例子。
英文原文
Wow I’ve hit 300k followers just now! What a milestone! My goal from the start was always to help retail from Day 0 instead of institutions. That being said… I’ve probably helped out $IBKR too much recently with thousands of new “Serenity Accounts? $HOOD retail DW… Working on something surprising for you all, just stay tight. Maybe 6-8 weeks? Regardless happy to see so much validation of my thoughts. And I hope whatever I do sets a lasting example for X about the positive sum nature of free information democratization.
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建议美国散户转去 IBKR 做国际股票
美国散户应该从 $HOOD 转到 $IBKR 去买国际股票。 我不明白为什么还有人会在投资时继续用 Robinhood。 除非你只有 50 美元，而且不在乎手续费。
英文原文
US retail investors should switch from $HOOD to $IBKR for international equities. I’m not sure why anyone still uses Robinhood for investing anymore. Unless you have $50 and no clue what you’re doing. They had their chance to innovate but focused on Melania Coin integrations
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IBKR UI 太烂但能忍
@labubu_trader 哈哈，我对 $IBKR 界面像垃圾这件事也有同感，但后来习惯了。 想象一下，他们只要拿出利润里的 15 万美元，就能请一个设计师重做 TWS、移动端和仪表盘。 希望 $HOOD 能往正确方向转向。
英文原文
@labubu_trader haha i felt the same with $IBKR UI being trash, but I got used to it. Imagine if they just spent like $150k on their billions of profit. for one designer to overhaul TWS, mobile and their dashboard Hope $HOOD pivots to the right direction.
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IBKR 目前强于 HOOD
现在确实是 $IBKR > $HOOD。 我也认为 Robinhood 有机会扭转局面……他们的界面更好，也更偏零售用户。 但就目前执行而言（取消期权的 payment for order flow）以及缺少国际业务，真的糟透了，所以目前显然还是 Interactive Brokers 更好。
英文原文
It’s true $IBKR > $HOOD currently. I do think Robinhood has the potential to turn that around though… they have a better UI and more retail-friendly platform. But just current execution (remove payment order flow for options) and lack of int. offerings is horrendous, so interactive brokers is clearly the better choice atm.
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HOOD 错过国际市场红利
是啊，国际市场本来就是 $HOOD 最明显的增长方向。 但他们错过了亚洲 / 欧盟股票当前这波巨大的上涨，因为他们太专注于预测市场和币上币。 现在还不算太晚，但他们现在的目标到底是什么，真的很奇怪。
英文原文
Yeah, international markets was the most obvious growth vector for $HOOD. Yet they missed out on the current massive run for Asian/EU equities because they focused too heavily on prediction markets and coin listings. Still not too late, but it’s very strange what their goals are now.
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HOOD 产品创新方向跑偏
$HOOD 真正该做的产品创新，本来应该是尽快支持国际股票交易。 结果他们反而加码“预测市场” + “抽奖” + 一堆新烂币上架，让散户乱七八糟地亏钱。 他们还把零售用户输给了 $IBKR，而后者现在已经支持韩国股票交易了。 尤其是受到台湾、韩国、欧洲、日本等国际股票增长的推动。 结果，这个季度 IBKR 新账户数量创了历史新高（这是基于我自己的定性体验）。 我认为 $HOOD 这次财报不及预期，是因为他们搞错了自己真正该帮助散户做什么。 如果他们能让散户大量交易国际股票，赚更多交易费、更多保证金使用、更多平台留存现金和财富增长等等，这才是这个平台的基础。 即便数字资产下行，事情也许本可以更好。
英文原文
Product innovation from $HOOD would have been enabling international stock trading ASAP. Instead they doubled down on "prediction markets" + "raffles" + new crapcoin listings where retail recklessly lose their money. They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading. Especially due to international stock growth from Taiwah, Korea, Europe, Japan. As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter (just from qualitative experiences). My opinion is $HOOD missed earnings since they lost track of what they should actually do to help out retail investors. If they had retail investors all spending tons of TX fees from int. Equities trading, likely more margin usage, fees, cash on platform, wealth appreciation, and so on, which is the basis of the platform. Maybe things would have gone better despite digital asset downturn.
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HOOD 产品建议
@platochi 我这是在直接给 $HOOD 提供产品创新思路。 给亚洲股票开 2 倍保证金。
英文原文
@platochi Literally giving $HOOD product innovation ideas. 2x margin enabled on Asian equities.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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IBKR 现在确实更好
不客气，$IBKR？ 但它现在确实是更好的券商，我倒是很惊讶 $HOOD 还没有国际股票。
英文原文
You’re welcome $IBKR? But it legitimately is the better brokerage right now, I’m surprised $HOOD doesn’t have international stocks. https://t.co/yMEZOXtI9w
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
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IBKR 业务也会有点帮助
@pennycheck 说实话，这对 $IBKR 来说也不算坏主意，我会去听他们的财报哈哈！ 但我确实认为，零售账户带来的增量相对机构成交量来说只是小幅提升……不过交易费 / 保证金使用这些长期可能会像 $HOOD 那样变得有意义。
英文原文
@pennycheck Honestly, not a bad idea for $IBKR, will tune into earnings lol! But I do think all the retail accounts only account for a slight boost relative to institutional volume... the trading fees / margin usage might be material like $HOOD over time.
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HOOD 金卡挺好看
哇，$HOOD 的金卡还挺好看。 做多 Robinhood？ https://t.co/Sth8jBHnG9
英文原文
Woah, the $HOOD gold card is sexy. Long Robinhood? https://t.co/Sth8jBHnG9
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Anthropic终于强制KYC验证，建议美国AI前沿实验室统一推行以阻止蒸馏泄露。
我去，终于Anthropic听进去了并强制推行KYC验证。早该如此了，别再让DeepSeek、月之暗面(Moonshot)和MiniMax免费蒸馏Opus和其他最新模型了。（引用推文内容：今天Anthropic点名了DeepSeek、Moonshot和Minimax的蒸馏行为。OpenAI也面临同样的问题，被中国实验室薅羊毛。最简单的解决方案没人做：KYC验证。每个金融机构从$HOOD到$IBKR都这样做，以追踪资金流向（如Persona自拍/身份证验证）。同样的方法应适用于token流向。美国前沿实验室应尽快对最新模型实施KYC。我确信他们关心无摩擦增长，但这关乎国家安全，个人和企业只需完成一次这个流程即可。这是目前为止最容易实现的方案，一天就能完成。如果不这样做，中国实验室将继续寻找绕过方法。）
英文原文
Holy **** finally Anthropic listened and forced KYC. About time, stop letting DeepSeek, Moonshoot, and MiniMax have a free pass to distill Opus and other latest models. https://t.co/Ba8XBTIsnb
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批评加密圈忘了区块链原本的用途。
这感觉就像……对冲基金 / VC 突然忘了区块链本来是干什么的？ 他们居然把数字资产变成了： 代币融资 -> 散户退出流动性，循环往复。 现在，没人再在乎“治理币”或 gas 代币了，因为那只是印钞后的更大傻瓜理论。 区块链最初的意义，是尽可能减少中间商，也顺带把费用降下来。 尽管如此： 1. 3 天 ACH 通道还在……虽然我们已经有 0 成本的支付通道。 2. 巨额 interchange 还在……虽然我们已经有 0 成本的支付通道。 3. 数字资产“信用卡”只是给 Visa/Mastercard 又包了一层更磨损的外壳。 4. 储蓄账户利率还是 0.3%，而现在法律还在试图堵住和稳定币相关的收益。 数字资产原本想做到的事，除了稳定币之外，几乎都没实现。 也许你们只是盲目追下一家 $HOOD / Hyperliquid（代币化、链上股票），或者盲目跟着 Ethereum，所以表现才会这么差。 重点不是靠代币价格上涨赚钱，再把 meme 币的癫狂变现。 而是要去资助真正有颠覆性的项目，比如 Bridge（稳定币出金/入金、interchange）之类。 这个圈子里绝大多数人毫无 alpha，因为他们都忘了它最初到底是为了什么。
英文原文
It's like... Hedge Funds/VCs suddenly forgot what blockchain was ever supposed to do? They somehow turned digital assets into: Token raise -> retail exit liquidity on repeat. Now, nobody cares anymore about "governance or gas" tokens since it's greater fools theory from printed money. The original point of blockchain is removing as many middlemen as possible, and as a byproduct, the fees. Despite all of this: 1. 3 Day ACH rails are still around... Even though we have payment rails for 0 cents. 2. Massive interchange is still around... despite having payment rails at 0 cents... 3. Digital Asset "Credit Cards" are just more friction-add wrappers around Visa/Mastercard. 4. Yields are still .3% in checking accounts and now laws are trying to bank stablecoin related yields. Very little that digital assets set out to do actually got accomplished, aside from Stablecoins? Maybe you all have bad performance by just blindly following the next L2 exchange token or blindly into Ethereum. It's not about making money from token prices going up + monetizing degeneracy from meme coins. It's to be funding any legitimate disruptors, like the next $HOOD/Hyperliquid (Tokenization, on-chain equities), Bridge (stablecoin off-ramps/intercharge), etc. 0 alpha from the vast majority of folks in that space, because everyone there lost vision on what it was originally supposed to do.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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认为韩国半导体回暖，且在降息预期升温下，跌深的资产可能值得回补。
三星和 SK 海力士都重新回到接近历史高点，$EWY 也跟着走强。 把一些因为宏观跌得很惨的名字买回来，比如 $MSFT（-21%）、$RDDT（-36%）或 $HOOD（-31%）…… 或者像这里的 $ETH 或 $IBIT 之类，也许都不算最糟糕的选择。 尤其是今天衍生品市场把 2-3 次降息的概率又推高了。 看起来市场和衍生品这次真的相信 TACO Tuesday 了。
英文原文
Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit. Buying back some names that crashed from macro like $MSFT (-21%), $RDDT(-36%), or $HOOD (-31%)… Or others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea. Especially as rate cut odds (2-3) spiked on derivative markets today. Looks like markets and derivatives really believe in TACO Tuesday this time.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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认为资源错配、伊朗局势和供应链混乱会让能源与军工受益。
结果发现……我们其实什么牌都没有。 -> $SPY 指数跌了 5% -> $HOOD 和 $RDDT 这些个股跌得更惨，超过 40% -> 机器人或 AI 所需的稀土供应链乱成一团 -> 我们正在和供应重要材料的盟友加拿大和欧洲闹别扭（提示：美国对很多这些材料根本没有国内精炼能力） -> 伊朗局势现在一团糟 -> 最大受益者是石油公司和战争承包商 -> 俄罗斯因为石油制裁被解除而高兴 -> 超大规模云厂商把全部储备都砸进 AI CapEx，而中国则从蒸馏技术里拿走了所有好处（没有 KYC 终端） -> 财富差距继续扩大，大家都在 paycheck to paycheck 地活着，而且随着 AI 冲击就业，大规模裁员很可能会发生 然后作为副线任务，家里的一些人靠 memecoin 发币赚钱，再把整个行业卖给大银行。 在我们可能开始对伊朗进行地面入侵之前，能不能先把供应链和前沿技术保住？ 我永远会看多美国，但这是我见过最蠢的一连串决策之一。 到底在发生什么？
英文原文
Turns out… we had no cards after all. -> Indexes from $SPY are down -5% -> Individual stocks from $HOOD and $RDDT are down worse 40%+ -> Rare earths supply chains needed for robotics or AI are a mess. -> We’re fighting with our allies from Canada and Europe that supply us with all the important materials for frontier supply chains (hint: America has no domestic refineries for many of these) -> Iran situation is now a mess -> Main beneficiaries are Oil companies and War contractors -> Russia is happy from Oil sanctions being lifted -> Hyperscalers are pouring all their reserves into AI capex, with China reaping all the benefits from distillation. (No KYC endpoints) -> Wealth gap keeps increasing, people living paycheck to paychecks, and mass layoffs are likely to happen as AI disrupts jobs. Then as a side quest, people in the family are enriching themselves through memecoin launches then selling the industry out to big banks. Can we at least secure our supply chains and frontier technologies first before we likely start a ground invasion of Iran? I’ll always be bullish on America but these are some of these dumbest series of decisions I’ve seen. WTF is even happening?
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希望有真正中立的人来负责，而不是继续打压 crypto。
@cryptoxmiko 也许该找个真正中立的人来做？ 不是 Gary Gensler / Warren 这种想起诉 $HOOD 和所有 crypto CEO 的人。 也不是 Sacks——他一边禁止收益率（这会和 0.3% 的银行活期账户竞争），一边又把 crypto 的每一个瓶颈都合法地交给银行。
英文原文
@cryptoxmiko Maybe someone genuinely in the center? Not Gary Gensler/Warrens trying to sue $HOOD and every crypto CEO. And not Sacks who banned yields which competes with .3% bank checking accounts then legally handing every chokepoint in crypto over to banks.
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对 crypto 政策和银行偏向感到困惑和失望。
我一开始是支持 David 的，但那到底算什么操作？ Crypto 公司到现在甚至都还很难接入银行系统。 然后还想推一些偏向银行的法律，把 crypto 公司去银行化？ 再把收益率这种创新直接禁止掉？我真的都不知道发生了什么。
英文原文
I was advocating for David from the start but WTF was that? Crypto companies still can’t even get banked. Then trying to push through laws in favor of the banks that de-bank crypto companies? Then banning innovation all together in the form of yields? I genuinely dont even know what happened.
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调侃大银行分析师得修正 IBKR/HOOD 业绩预期，因为有人在 X 上研究海外标的。
我们居然活在这样一个世界里， 大银行的股票分析师…… 可能得修正 $IBKR 或 $HOOD 的盈利预测。 因为 X 上一个普通人却在看像 $SIVE、$IQE、Macronix、海力士、Unimicron 这种 Robinhood 或美国券商根本买不到的国际股票。 真是个疯狂的时代。
英文原文
It’s hilarious we live in a world: Where equity analysts at major banks… Might need to adjust their estimates for $IBKR or $HOOD earnings. Because a random person on X liked international equities like $SIVE, $IQE, Macronix, SK Hynix, Unimicron, and others not available on Robinhood or US brokerages. What a wild timeline.
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拿 HOOD 的梗开玩笑。
@soulbiri1 这和 $HOOD 完全说得通。 但你有没有考虑过反面情景：Claire Kagenou 把他的 Hood 抢走，从而把他的力量移除了？
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Makes perfect sense with $HOOD. But did you consider the bear case of Claire Kagenou pulling off his Hood, thus removing his powers?