· 业绩复盘

博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历,强调市场是最终裁判。

涉及标的:

相关概念: ASIC 专用集成电路InP 磷化铟衬底光子学 Photonics

中文翻译

我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对,尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂,甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司,但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对,现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”,我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节,莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知,这可能是我最成功的观点,已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在:$AAOI $30时,管理层被称“骗局”;$LITE $300时,光子学被称“泡沫”;$RKLB $20时,被视为低营收泡沫公司,我因发帖被WSB临时禁言;$HOOD $20时,人们想起其冻结GME交易;$IQE $12时,被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司;$SOI $44时,欧洲分析师称其“高估”;$NBIS $75时,$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河;$INTC $115时,人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争;$MRVL $85时,人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通;$AEHR $35时,人们误读财报认为其无营收;$EWY $115时,人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论,所以记得很多仇恨(我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度)。但现在,人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是,市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者,而非X上的愤怒评论。

英文原文

I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.

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