$XFAB
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博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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看好$XFAB作为早期$TSEM潜力股，CPO预期未计入模型。
@jim29223471 是的，我的想法是 $XFAB 可能成为早期的 $TSEM，作为一家实际的碳化硅(SiC)/微机电系统(MEMS)晶圆代工厂，在他们发展光子学部门的过程中起到桥梁作用。他们重申了对共封装光学(CPO)的敞口，且2028年的时间表尚未被计入任何营收模型中（这一点我很欣赏）。可能还稍微有点早，但我们正接近2026年下半年的节点，且管理层指引(ER)非常有帮助。
英文原文
@jim29223471 Yeah my thought was $XFAB could be an early $TSEM with actual SiC/MEMs foundry kinda bridging the gap while they develop their photonics arm. They did reiterate exposure to CPO and 2028 timeline isn't priced into any revenue models yet (which I liked about them). Might be a tad early, but we're getting closer in H2 2026 and the ER statements were very helpful.
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XFAB确认CPO与800V布局，验证投资逻辑，预期2027-2028年估值重估。
关于 $XFAB 投资者关系(ER)电话会议纪要： 简单回顾一下，我对 $XFAB 晶圆代工增长机会的观点源于碳化硅(SiC)在800V架构中的应用，以及光子工厂(MTP)在共封装光学(CPO)领域的适用性。 - $XFAB：“我们在共封装光学方面正在取得进展”。 - “向800V架构的过渡……预计将推动对碳化硅(SiC)和氮化镓(GaN)的需求……对 $XFAB 而言”。 所以，那些自信地唱空 $XFAB、声称其“在800V、光子学、CPO方面零敞口”的分析师/人士，结果被证明完全错了。 在我分享观点时，行业材料显示日月光(ASE)等公司将光子工厂+ $XFAB 列为欧洲即将崛起的CPO玩家。 filings显示他们普遍涉及如 $NVTS / $POWI 等名称。 很高兴 $XFAB 出面明确澄清，表示他们正在开发CPO/800V相关技术。 回到ER纪要： - “我们继续预计光子学量产将于2028年开始”。公司目前有三个硅光子项目正在与关键合作伙伴开发中。 我原本以为会在2027年下半年爬坡，但可能早估了几个月。 - 多个新的数据中心设计订单，例如3个新的碳化硅设计订单（与800V部署启动后2027年普遍爬坡一致）。 因此，一旦这些在2027-2028年爬坡（市场往往会提前定价），我预计 $XFAB 将基于增长机会获得估值重估。 总结： - 当前营收数据并不惊艳。 - $XFAB 确认直接涉足CPO和800V转型（这是投资逻辑的最大胜利） - 800V敞口带来的碳化硅机会（应在2027年） - 光子学量产时间表为2028年 很高兴CPO/800V敞口的投资逻辑在此次ER中得到确认。营收爬坡可能需要一点等待时间。
英文原文
For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.
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Kelper 因需求增强及AI结构性增长上调 $XFAB 至买入评级。
Kelper 将 $XFAB 评级上调至“买入”，理由如下： - 主要客户 Melexis 的需求“周复一周、日复一日”地增强。 - AI 通过碳化硅(SiC)、氮化镓(GaN) 和光子学技术，为 $XFAB 提供结构性增长动力，抵消汽车行业的周期性波动。 - 像 $SILEX 这样的西方特色晶圆厂稀缺。
英文原文
Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX https://t.co/9lhS4fjKXX
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$XFAB获1.27亿欧元芯片法案资助，2028年投产。
今天，$XFAB（市值12.3亿美元）因其微机电系统(MEMS)晶圆代工厂获得了1.274亿欧元的《芯片法案》(CHIPS Act)资助。 “图林根州州长解释说，埃尔福特(Erfurt)的‘Fab4Micro’项目对于德国和欧洲的技术主权至关重要。” 计划于2028年开始生产 https://t.co/SSSa0EERLD
英文原文
Today, $XFAB (1.23B MC) receives €127.4 million from CHIPS ACT for their MEMS Foundry. "The «Fab4Micro» in Erfurt is a key project for the technological sovereignty of Germany and Europe, explained Thuringia’s head of government." The production start is planned in 2028 https://t.co/SSSa0EERLD
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XFAB获上调评级，但博主认为目标价严重低估其潜力。
$XFAB 被伯恩斯坦 (Bernstein) 上调至“跑赢大盘”，目标价从 5 欧元升至 12.8 欧元。好吧，鉴于之前在铠侠 (Kioxia) 和英特尔 (Intel) 上的表现，我原谅你了伯恩斯坦。但我仍然认为这仅仅是针对汽车复苏、碳化硅 (SiC)/功率半导体 (power semi) 产能爬坡的反应性目标价。如果市场计入 https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ 的影响，该目标价严重低估了潜力……
英文原文
$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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XFAB 被低估为主权 AI 受益者，作者好奇市场反应
我觉得 $XFAB 没什么新消息。不过他们的公司确实该在营销材料上做得更好。毕竟没人认为他们算是光学 AI 数据中心或功率半导体相关的敞口。然而，我以为既然他们正通过 PhotonixFab 引领欧洲硅光子学（Silicon Photonics）价值链的努力，加上显然大家都在讨论 Fable 出口管制后的主权 AI 供应链，人们可能会认为他们是主权 AI 推动下的主要受益者之一，与 IMEC、Ligentec 等并列？总之，市场可以持不同意见，或者只是没把这些联系起来。不管怎样，我只是好奇这会如何演变。（披露：持有仓位）
英文原文
Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
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回顾核心欧洲多头持仓，重点解析Sivers在光子学领域的瓶颈地位。
简单回顾一下，以下是我所有的核心欧洲多头持仓： 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers：如你所知，它是下一代光子学的核心激光瓶颈环节，涵盖从1.6T可插拔光模块到共封装光学(CPO)。 嵌入在许多超大规模云计算服务商的供应商（如Jabil）中。
英文原文
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil
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汇总粉丝提出的800V直流供电相关标的清单。
好了，大家，这是你们最喜欢的 800V 直流供电(800V DC)相关想法汇总清单。 1. $IFNNY - 1158亿美元 2. $ON - 462亿美元 3. Lite-On(2301) - 160.3亿美元 4. 6504.T - 141亿美元 5. $VICR - 128亿美元 6. $LFUS - 115.7亿美元 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - 83.4亿美元 8. $VSH - 78.6亿美元 9. $ENPH - 73.6亿美元 10. $NVTS - 57.7亿美元 11. $POWI - 43.0亿美元 12. $BDC - 41.8亿美元 13. $EOSE - 38.6亿美元 14. $SEDG - 38.2亿美元 15. $AEHR - 31亿美元 16. 6890.T - 26.6亿美元 17. $WOLF - 21.6亿美元 18. $CWR.L - 17.5亿美元 19. $AMSC - 16.8亿美元 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - 16.8亿美元 21. $XFAB - 15.4亿美元 22. $AOSL - 12.5亿美元 23. $HYLN - 12.3亿美元 24. $FCEL - 8.35亿美元 25. $IQE.L - 7.80亿美元 26. $ASYS - 2.76亿美元 27. $RELL - 2.39亿美元 28. 6844.T - 2.22亿美元 29. 4973.T - 2.07亿美元 30. $PAY.BR - 1.89亿美元 31. 6616.T - 1.86亿美元 32. 6882.T - 1.24亿美元 33. $IPWR - 9600万美元 我也把你们提到的一些相邻标的放了进去，比如 $FCEL 或 $EOSE，虽然我不确定它们的敞口是否真的很好。像有人提到的 $POET 这种明显不太相关的，我就忽略了。 评论大概有500条，但我猜 X 限制了我能看到的内容。 我们拭目以待，看看你们最高信念的想法表现如何。
英文原文
Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
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认为XFAB是去风险的CPO晶圆代工机会。
呃，$XFAB 是一个已经去风险的晶圆代工标的。如果他们能在2027年下半年/2028年把事情做成，CPO 带来的上行空间会很有吸引力？ 我把这称为抢在机构前面……因为这本质上是在正常重估发生前几个月进行的大型猜测游戏。 原因是现在更多是客户/文件映射加时间线推测，还没有正式的大批量合同。 但我觉得我是对的？我们拭目以待。
英文原文
Uhh, $XFAB de-risked foundry. Compelling upside from CPO if they make things work in H2 2027/2028? I call this frontrunning institutions... since it's a massive guessing game few months ahead of normal repricing. Cause it's a lot of customer/document mapping + timeline guessing without formal volume contracts in place. But I think I'm right? We'll see.
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好吧……周末再随便想一些关于 $XFAB 的东西。 我仍然觉得它可能成为下一个 $TSEM，只是现在还处在早期阶段，市值约14亿美元？ 他们有点跳过了当前一代技术（$TSEM 正在从中获得出货量），转而竞争2027年下半年 CPO 放量拐点。$ASX 文件提到 Xfab（也就是 photonixFAB）专注于 CPO。 他们正在搭建某种像黑魔法一样的 MTP（转移印刷）激光架构，并结合 TFLN 等其他东西。 基本上这是下一代集成 IP。当然，他们的良率仍然落后。 但 $NVDA 正在评估它用于收发器/交换机，看它能否实现批量爬坡。而 $NOK 负责制定这些交换机/网络设备的规格和组装（顺便说一句，英伟达也投资了诺基亚，和这些交换机/网络有关）。 如果他们的 MTP 供应链跑通，比如 Smart Photonics 提供激光器、欧洲厂商负责组装，那么它基本上会随着 $NVDA 一起放量，就像 Nvidia 当初为什么和 $TSEM 签长期协议一样。 下行风险呢？ 它已经低于重置账面价值，当然还能更低，但通常会有一个限度。 未来几个月也许会有更多 CHIPS Act 2 补贴。如果 CPO 不顺利，还有 SiC（同比增长152%，SiC 晶圆出货同比增长195%）和 GaN 功率半导体的上行空间。 欧洲人或大模型会说：“哦，评估并不代表未来合同！” 但这次有点不同，因为欧盟站在这项努力背后，$XFAB 也涉及主权光子供应链。 这不是典型的公司与超大云厂商评估，因为 $NVDA 也想对欧洲监管者保持友好。如果英伟达只留在美国/台湾/中国，欧洲大概会很生气。 所以，如果他们能把这种 MTP 黑魔法做成并实现量产，几乎可以确定 Nvidia/Nokia 会让这家小小的14亿美元硅光子代工厂参与放量，至少也会给他们一些较小合同。 从时间线看，也许只是早了几个月，因为放量在2027年下半年/2028年上半年，这刚好和 CPO 扩产时间线一致。 也可能只是市场还没搞懂，因为他们把项目命名成 photonixfab 这种奇怪名字？ 如果叫 XFAB Photonics 可能会更好，让机构和筛选器在寻找 CPO 硅光子代工厂时更容易把点连起来。 汽车业务中期也应该走出低谷，并受自动驾驶加速。台积电董事长昨天评论称，AI 汽车和机器人一样是台积电的增长向量。所以它的核心业务中期也应该重新加速。 显然，市场和欧洲投资者想看到的是“英伟达签署20亿美元以上合同，XFab 2027年放量！” 但到那时，它就会是一家90亿美元以上的公司，你也就错过所有上行空间了。尤其是现在分析师和机构对这些放量预期几乎是盲的。 我通常不投资仍在评估阶段的公司，但这次看起来受到欧盟主权和政府支持显著去风险；如果 IP 做得出来，还有 Nvidia 和 Nokia 带来出货量。 我认为市场很可能漏掉了什么……它作为欧洲 CPO 敞口的长期上行价值，几乎还没有被定价。
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Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
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重申XFAB是去风险的2027/2028硅光子前商业化多头。
回复 @Jornka329996：你是嗨了吗？我这周刚写过 $XFAB。 它与 $NVDA 和 $NOK 相关的硅光子平台会在2027年下半年/2028年放量。 我认为它是一个已经大幅去风险、商业化前的多头机会，看起来像下一个 $TSEM，并且还有 SiC/GaN 上行空间。 只是需要时间。
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@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.
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台积电董事长称CoPoS未来2-3年放量，汽车和机器人也是增长方向。
$TSM 董事长：CoPoS 在未来2-3年的量会非常大，目前已经有试产线。 我原以为市场还会再等几个月，但 Visera（台积电子公司，相关敞口很大）已经有一点重估。 这可以作为明年的一个长线想法记在心里。大家一直说它严重延后，但未来2年放量意味着2028年。 自动机器人/自动驾驶汽车也被视为 $TSM 的增长领域。 汽车过去两年处于严重低迷，所以这个评论有些意外……虽然我现在到处都能看到 Waymo，这对 $XFAB 和其他当前低迷、但对该领域有很大敞口的公司是很好的验证。 所以这是触底信号，甚至进入高增长向量？我需要对这个想法和时间线再做一点研究。 这类小表述很容易吸引我的注意。
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$TSM chairman: CoPoS very large within 2-3 year volumes already pilot lines now. Thought markets would wait another few months but Visera (TSM subsidiary heavy exposure) already got re-rated a bit. Just something to keep in mind as a long idea next year, everyone kept saying it’s heavily delayed but next 2 years volume implies 2028. Automous robots / autonomous vehicles seen as growth areas for $TSM. Automotive was in a major slump last 2 years so this is a surprise comment… even tho I see Waymo’s everywhere now great validation for $XFAB and others in a slump now with large exposure to that segment. So signals of a bottom, into even a high growth vector? Will need to do a little more research into that thought/timeline. Just little statements like this catch my eye.
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指出CHIPS Act 2加入光子学，XFAB在部分报告中被提及。
回复 @laadred：不是，是因为 CHIPS Act 2 刚刚发布，而且加入了光子学。 “将光子学和光子集成电路纳入强化版欧洲芯片倡议2.0。” $XFAB 在一些报告中被提到。文件太长了，我现在还在逐步看完。
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@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
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注意到XFAB突然上涨并准备查会议记录。
回复 @KayEffGeee：$XFAB 突然涨了7%，我想知道那里是否有提到它。我现在去看会议记录。
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@KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.
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对比NASDAQ与欧股上市估值，认为XFAB被低估。
NASDAQ 和欧洲上市之间的差异： $POET：24亿美元市值 -> 封装 Sivers 激光器 -> 一个5000万美元预生产合同换认股权证 > $XFAB：17亿美元市值 -> SiC/GaN/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受到 EU CHIPS Act 和 US CHIPS Act PMT 支持 -> 低于重置市净率价值 -> ……
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The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value ->
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
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@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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欧洲技术主权包和CHIPS Act 2.0突出光子学，利好XFAB/SIVE。
欧洲将在今天6月3日发布技术主权一揽子计划。 其中包括 CHIPS Act 2.0，预计会优先考虑光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 都在指导欧盟立法的产业政策蓝图中被重点提及。 这提出了主权支持……
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Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing https://t.co/WWBlo5o1tL
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称SOI上涨约250%，并惊讶XFAB估值偏低。
回复 @StocksAREnuts：是的，我在 $SOI 上大概涨了250%，我很惊讶市场错过了那个机会。 考虑到 $XFAB 看起来正在引领欧洲光子学供应链发展，我也对它的估值相当惊讶。
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@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…
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认为XFAB像早期TSEM，具备Nvidia/Nokia验证和政府补贴。
说实话，$XFAB 有点让我想起早期的 $TSEM。 只是市值低于20亿美元。 你基本上很少能找到一家低于20亿美元的公司，拥有 $NVDA 和 $NOK 正在主动验证其商业化前硅光子代工平台（photonixFAB）。 同时还能获得 CHIPS Act / 政府补贴来补贴资本开支。 还在引领……
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Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the
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IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
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A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
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认为XFAB受2025周期低迷拖累，接近账面和重置价值；Melexis也可能接近汽车周期底部。
回复 @MatteoDeDycker：据我所见，2025年是周期性低迷。$XFAB 已经被拖累，因为它接近市净率价值，也低于我个人估算的实际资产重置成本。 对于 Melexis，也是在猜我们接近汽车周期底部，传统业务拖累有点像……
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@MatteoDeDycker From what I’ve seen, cyclical slump 2025. $XFAB was already dragged down, since it’s close to P/B value and lower than actual cost of asset replacement value from personal est. For Melexis, it’s also a guess we’re near the bottom of automotive cycle for legacy drag kinda like https://t.co/qDjspQB3yd
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围绕XFAB、800VDC、GaN/SiC和西方供应链做移动端思考。
一些手机上随手写的关于 $XFAB 的思路： 1. $NVDA 推动 800VDC，寻找 GaN/SiC 玩家和功率半导体。 2. $NVTS 和其他受益于 $NVDA 推动的 fabless/fab-lite 公司，可能使用代工模式。 3. 相比亚洲供应链，我更关心西方供应链……
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Just some mobile shower thoughts around $XFAB and train of thought: 1. 800vdc $NVDA push look for GaN/SiC players / power semis. 2. $NVTS and other fabless/fab-lite beneficiaries of $NVDA push probably use foundry models 3. care more about Western supply chains over Asia,
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感谢比利时报纸De Tijd客观报道其CPO/光子学供应链论点。
非常感谢 De Tijd 的客观报道！ 看到我的工作出现在比利时顶级报纸上很酷。 也很欣慰看到记者报道 $AAOI、$XFAB、$MRVL Celestial，以及我在 CPO + 光子学供应链论点背后的细微差别。 感谢 KLismont 提供照片。
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Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN
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认为XFAB在15亿美元市值很有吸引力，是美国唯一高量SiC代工厂。
我真心认为 $XFAB 在15亿美元市值非常有吸引力，尽管最近波动很大。 根据 NIST 文件，它们是美国唯一的高量 SiC 代工厂。 这让它们成为极其“关键的基础设施”……这是美国政府原话。 而且它们是第一个综合……
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I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility. Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America. Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov. And they’re the first comprehensive https://t.co/4OGXctOv5h
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感谢路透和彭博中性报道XFAB，但强调800VDC、NVDA/NOK评估和CHIPS催化。
感谢路透和彭博今天对 $XFAB 更中性的报道。 不过如果能更多聚焦我提出的结构性 thesis 会更好…… 围绕 800VDC 功率半导体的 $NVDA 敞口，以及正在进行的 $NVDA / $NOK 光子学评估。 以及 CHIPS Act 半导体主权作为近期催化。 而不是围绕新型信息综合带来的波动。 你知道的，我花很多时间看监管文件，寻找市场错过的有吸引力东西。
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Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
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Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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认为SIVE/SOI/XFAB可能获得EU Chips Act 2资金。
是的，如果看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金，我不会惊讶。 很高兴我在那里所有多头（除了 $IQE）都列在蓝图中，我之前研究时还没看到！ 不过正式公告看起来推迟到下周了。
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Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
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XFAB兼具光子学和功率半导体，EU CHIPS Act 2是催化。
$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）是一个有趣的多头想法，市值12.8亿美元，我已经建仓。 考虑到 EU CHIPS Act 2 今天是欧洲光子学玩家的催化。 > 通过 $NVTS + $POWI，拥有 $NVDA 推动下的 800VDC 功率半导体敞口。 > 硅光子 / CPO……
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$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O