$COIN

提及 40 次首次 2025-07-02 最近 2026-06-04

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2026-06-04 个股论点 $IBIT $ETHA $HOOD $COIN

称短线买入IBIT和ETHA，但加密下跌伤害HOOD/COIN等。

回复 @RockyKh49376975：我今天最后在 6.2万美元 / 1750美元价位买了 $IBIT 和 $ETHA。只是做波段交易，不是长期持有。但价格下跌会伤害 $HOOD / $COIN 和其他公司。

英文原文

@RockyKh49376975 I ended up buying $IBIT and $ETHA today at $62K / $1.75K. Just swing trading those, not long term holding. But prices dropping hurts $HOOD / $COIN and the others.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-06-04 个股论点 $COIN $HOOD $CRCL

批评银行游说的监管法案压制加密创新。

好吧，看起来 $COIN、$HOOD、$CRCL 等又到了一年里的那个时候。如果他们试图强推银行游说的 Clarity Act 法案，禁止任何形式的创新或与银行竞争，那所谓“友好政府”和“战略储备”也就不过如此了……

英文原文

Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with https://t.co/zypbwwqt3x

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-05-02 个股论点 $COIN

批评Coinbase获批后表态虚伪，指行业被出卖散户遭殃。

$COIN只有在他们获得附带条件的银行宪章批准之后才会说这种废话。看到整个行业在本届政府手下被出卖，真的很可悲。你们就享受那0.05%的活期存款利率吧，而传统银行却能赚取4%的利差，狠狠地薅每个美国散户的羊毛。本来还以为我们终于能看到一些积极的改变。

英文原文

$COIN only says this crap after they got their conditional banking charter approved. Pretty sad to see the entire industry get sold out under this administration. Enjoy your .05% checking account interest while traditional banks profit a 4% spread shafting every day US retail. Had hopes we’d actually see some positive change.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-04-13 方法论 $CRCL $COIN

直接把 Clarity Act 说成银行游说法案。

把话说清楚：Clarity Act 是一部银行游说法案。 JPM 和其他机构游说双方，想控制数字资产 / $CRCL 稳定币。 $COIN 大概率会把整个行业卖掉，因为他们拿到了有条件的银行牌照批准。但实际上，这等于禁止收益竞争： -> 银行可以继续给 .3% 利率的活期账户。而不是把 4.3% 的国债收益发给用户，然后自己拿走那 4% 的差价。 -> 他们掌握了入金 / 出金通道和稳定币的卡点。 -> 禁止任何非银行机构提供类似服务，比如通过持有稳定币给出 4.3% 收益的新创公司。他们的理由？ 1. “安全”。这些机构本身就是部分准备金模式，真遇上银行挤兑，和 1:1 抵押代币比起来更扛不住。 2. “那你就去当银行吧”。但他们却在背后偷偷游说，阻止任何新的竞争性公司真正拿到银行牌照。如果你想看这个政府底下的事情到底是怎么运作的：就看看现在发生了什么。任何真正帮到散户的东西，最后大概率都会被禁。

英文原文

Let's get this straight: The Clarity Act is a bank lobbyist bill. Where JPM and others lobbied both sides to get control over digital assets / $CRCL stablecoins. $COIN is probably going to sell out the industry because they got their conditional banking charter approved. But effectively, this bans competition in yields: -> So banks can continue offering .3% interest checking accs. Instead of handing out 4.3% treasury yields and keep the 4% difference. -> Hands them chokepoints over on/off-ramps and stablecoins. -> Bans any non-banks from offerings, like startups giving out 4.3% yields by holding stablecoins. Their claim? 1. “Safety”. These are the same institutions that operate on fractional reserve models and would GG on a bank run vs. 1-1 collateralized tokens. 2. “Just become a bank”. While they secretly lobby behind the scenes to prevent any new competitive firm from becoming a bank. If you want to see how it's things are doing under this administration: Just look at how things are going. Any genuinely helpful to retail are just going to get banned.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-03-20 个股论点 $PL $RKLB $COIN $TSLA

回顾父亲最看好的 PL，以及自己后来转向 RKLB 的经历和遗憾。

我爸最看多的股票？ $PL，3 美元时买的，现在 18 个月涨了 996.5% 以上。我自己也为了好玩买过 1 股。因为我当时并不觉得 Planet Labs 的营收能真正增长。后来我转而重仓了 $RKLB。现在 Planet Labs 已经涨了 10 倍以上，而我只剩下一堆懊悔。顺带一提：他当年 35-40 美元时也很看好 $COIN，早期 $TSLA 他也看得很准，我一个都没听。教训是：有时候，你爸可能比你更会选股。尤其当你本来就跟他很像的时候。

英文原文

My dad’s most bullish stock? $PL at $3, which is up over 996.5% in 18 months. I bought 1 single share for fun. Because I didn’t think Planet Labs would grow revenue. I ended up long $RKLB instead. Planet Labs is now up over 10 times, and now I‘n left with a lot of regrets. FYI: They liked $COIN at $35-40 and early $TSLA as well, I didn’t listen to any of them. Lesson learned: Sometimes your parents are better investors than you are. Especially when you’re a mirror of them.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-03-19 供应链分析 $COIN $CRCL $MA $PYPL $V

AI代理支付以USDC为主且单笔金额极低，市场低估其对传统卡支付网络的冲击。

我对市场没有定价卡支付网络和交换费（如$V和$MA）的长期颠覆感到惊讶。由$CRCL和$COIN推动。来自Circle的全球市场负责人： "在过去九个月里，AI代理完成了1.4亿笔支付，总交易量达4300万美元。其中98.6%以USDC结算，平均交易金额仅为0.31美元。" 像$PYPL这样的卡网络和百分比收费的支付处理器可能要被"烤熟"了？

英文原文

I’m surprised markets aren’t pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA. By $CRCL and $COIN. From Global Markets Head at Circle: "Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments with a total transaction volume of 43 million US dollars. Among these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average transaction amount of only 0.31 US dollars." Card networks and % fee payment processors like $PYPL are likely going to be cooked?

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-03-07 供应链分析 $AAOI $COIN $HOOD $LITE

对比光通信私有公司高估值与上市公司基本面，指出私有公司若上市恐崩盘。

在光通信(CPO)领域，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的内幕人士抛售行为，与公司创纪录的收入/利润形成实质性差异。与此同时，私有公司估值翻倍（例如从 $910亿涨至 $1590亿面向散户），而 $HOOD 到 $COIN 等上市公司却在暴跌。如果这些私有公司上市，其虚高的估值很可能导致股价崩盘，而上市公司基本面依然稳健。

英文原文

Insider selling on photonic names from $LITE to $AAOI while companies generate record revenue/profit is materially different. Private companies hike valuations by 2x (eg. $91B -> $159B to retail) while public companies from $HOOD to $COIN are crashing. If these companies traded publicly, most would all likely tank from their inflated valuations, while public companies are fundamentally sound.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-27 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL

Circle 估值具吸引力，看好 USDC 印钞能力并长期持有。

$CRCL 不属于软件板块。由于监管严格，你无法通过“氛围编程”(vibe code) 来开发基于美国的稳定币。此次抛售主要源于更广泛的数字资产情绪、《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 对利率的影响（这类似于交易所如 $COIN 中人们存放 USDC 存款的情况），以及潜在的降息预期。我发现尽管股价下跌超过 50%，流通供应量仍保持在约 700 亿美元以上，因此认为 $54 的 $CRCL 极具吸引力。话虽如此，我长期持有 Circle，因为我确实认为 USDC 是一台印钞机。

英文原文

$CRCL is not put in the software bucket. You can't vibe code US based stablecoins because it's highly regulated. The selloff was mainly do to broader digital asset sentiment, clarity act interest rate (proxies to exchanges like $COIN where ppl keep USDC deposits), and potential rate cuts. I just found circulating supply was the same above ~$70B despite the stock selling off 50%+ and found $CRCL at $54 to be highly attractive. That being said I am long Circle for the long run because I do think USDC is a money printer.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-13 个股论点 $COIN

批评法案将基础设施让给银行，警告其将扼杀加密创新及COIN前景。

《Clarity Act》（清晰法案）简直是对整个加密货币行业的毒丸核弹，将所有基础设施拱手让给银行。禁止稳定币使用第三方收益，使得银行可以维持其0.01%的支票账户利率。要求接触资金流必须拥有银行牌照或IDI（存款机构）资格，这对你们风投组合中的大多数公司来说都是有效的核打击。继续坚持斗争，政府政策显然在确保美元作为所有加密货币的底层货币，这一点我们可以认同。但同时不要允许银行加入那些会摧毁加密货币和 $COIN 长期创新的条款。

英文原文

The Clarity Act is just a poison pill nuke on the entire crypto industry, giving all the rails over to banks. Banning 3rd party yields for stablecoins allows banks to just keep their .01% interest rate checking. Then having banking licenses or IDI requirements to even touch flow of funds is an effective nuke on majority of your venture portfolio companies. Keep up the good fight, Gov policy is obviously making sure Dollar is bottom line currency for all crypto that is fine to align on. But at the same time don’t let banks throw in provisions that nukes the long term innovation for crypto and $COIN.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-07 业绩复盘 $AEHR $AIRO $AXTI $COHR $COIN $CPSH $CRCL $CRDO $DPRO $ETOR $GLXY $HOOD $IBIT $INTC $LITE $LPTH $MU $NBIS $OSS $POET $QQQ $RDDT $SNDK $SOL $TSM $TTD $VIX $VLN $VPG

展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。

组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY）我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或欣兴电子，且权重不同。这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。

英文原文

Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-06 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL $ETOR $GLXY $MSTR $MU $SNDK

加密资产大幅回调后机构正在买入，建议等待波动结束并顺势反弹。

我一直参与内存/AI交易，比如 $MU、$SNDK。但像这样的机会并不常见。所有加密货币相关标的都已重置：比特币 - 从 $125k 跌至 $70K 以太坊 - 从 $4k 跌至 $2.05K Solana - 从 $233 跌至 $88 $COIN 从 $415 跌至 $162 $CRCL 从 $240 跌至 $56 $GLXY 从 $40 跌至 $19 $ETOR 从 $68 跌至 $26 $MSTR 从 $434 跌至 $132 如果人们认为比特币会回到 $30K，我不知道该说什么。我亲眼看到的每家机构在清算清洗后都在现在买入。等待波动性过去并顺势反弹很容易。

英文原文

I've been in the memory/AI trade like $MU, $SNDK. But opportunities like this don't come often. Every crypto name has been reset: Bitcoin - $70K from $125k Ethereum - $2.05K from $4k Solana - $88 from $233 $COIN $162 from $415 $CRCL $56 from $240 $GLXY $19 from $40 $ETOR $26 from $68 $MSTR $132 from $434 If people think Bitcoin is going back to $30K idk what to tell you, every institution I've seen personally is buying now after the liquidation wipeout. Easy to wait out volatility and ride the wave back up.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-03 个股论点 $COIN $MSTR $PYPL $SNDK

市场恐慌中 $SNDK 逆势上涨，建议利用恐惧寻找入场点。

$SNDK 简直不知道什么是“下跌日”。股市在 $PYPL 今日暴跌 20.7%+ 后已进入“恐惧”区域。加密市场在 $COIN 和 $MSTR 过去三个月分别暴跌 48% 和 51% 后，现已进入“极度恐惧”状态。散户看起来正在恐慌。现金是一种持仓策略，但本应在一周前就采取。现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当“恐惧”已经压倒了基本面时。

英文原文

$SNDK literally doesn’t know what a red day means. https://t.co/W1SCKBmQLE

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-03 方法论 $COIN $MSTR $PYPL

市场恐慌情绪蔓延，建议此时寻找被错杀的入场机会。

在$PYPL今日暴跌20.7%+后，股市已进入恐惧(Fear)区域。在$COIN暴跌48%且$MSTR在过去3个月暴跌51%后，加密市场(Crypto markets)现已处于极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)状态。散户似乎正在恐慌。现金(Cash)是一种仓位，但它本应在一周前就确立。现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当恐惧已经压倒基本面(Fundamentals)时。

英文原文

Stock markets have entered Fear territory after $PYPL dropped 20.7%+ today. Crypto markets are now in Extreme Fear after $COIN crashed 48% and $MSTR crashed 51% in the last 3 months. It looks like retail is panicking. Cash is a position, but it should have been one a week ago. Now might be a good time to look for entry points. Especially when Fear has overridden fundamentals.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-02-03 个股论点 $COIN

认为COIN接近4月关税底部$171，决定在此价位买入。

@dexapiko 我们正接近 $COIN 在 4 月关税(Tariff)底部的 $171 价位。此前唯一一次触及该水平是在 2024 年 9 月，当时价格为 $150。我在此价位买入。https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2

英文原文

@dexapiko We’re close to the April Tariff bottom at $171 now for $COIN. Only other time it hit that was September 2024 for $150. I’m a buyer here https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-01-30 业绩复盘 $COIN $IBIT $LTCC $SOL $SOLZ

博主今日大幅加仓加密货币相关ETF及个股，试图抄底。

我今天最终将大量仓位轮动到了正在下落的加密货币“飞刀”上。只是感觉从 $COIN 到 $SOL 的所有东西最近都跌得有点太多了。 - 比特币 $82.9k 通过 IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) 通过 $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) 通过 $LTCC - $COIN ($197) 希望我抄底抄对了时机。

英文原文

I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today. Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much - Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9) - Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ - Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC - $COIN ($197) Hope I timed the bottom correctly

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2026-01-24 个股论点 $AAOI $AEHR $AIRO $AMBA $AMKR $AMZN $AVAV $AVGO $AXTI $BKKT $BMNR $BULL $CIFR $COHR $COIN $COPX $CRCL $DPRO $ETOR $FIG $FORM $GLXY $GOOGL $HIMS $HOOD $HUT $IBIT $INTC $IONQ $IREN $LASR $LIT $LPTH $META $MRVL $MU $NBIS $ONDS $ORCL $OSS $PLTR $POET $QBTS $RDDT $RGTI $SKYT $SMCI $SNAP $SPY $TSM $TTD $UAVS $UMAC $VELO $VLN $VPG $WULF

发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。

1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法：我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链看多 - 国防板块并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。

英文原文

Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-12-21 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL $HOOD

质疑 $COIN 估值，认为其交易所业务面临竞争且 USDC 分成优势难保。

关于 $COIN，我略有异议。随着 2026 年与 $CRCL 的合同重新谈判临近，其灵活性远比你想象的低。目前 Coinbase 受益于 50% 的 USDC 收入分成及交易所业务，还有来自托管（如 Blackrock ETFs）的价值。但长期来看，其交易所板块可能会被 $HOOD 和 Bitfinex 等零费率交易所蚕食。至于那 50% 的“金蛋”收入分成：Circle 存在法律漏洞可脱离 Coinbase。我确信 Circle 长期会找到办法。例如，《天才法案》明确禁止稳定币发行方向持有者支付利息 -> 借此合法停止支付分成。或者 50/50 的分成在 2027 年合同谈判中降至 75/25。但你只需 180 亿美元就能获得直接发行商的纯粹非对称收益，而交易所附加部分却需 660 亿美元。

英文原文

For $COIN, slighty disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up. Right now Coinbase benefits from 50% USDC rev split + exchange business. Then there's value derived from Custody (eg. Blackrock ETFs). But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run. As for that 50% revenue split of the golden egg: there's legal loopholes for Circle to depeg from Coinbase. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run. Eg. Genius Act, explicitly bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders -> using that to legally stop paying them a split. Or the 50/50 split to drop to something like 75/25 from contract negotiation by 2027. But you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B or the exchange-add on for $66B.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-12-21 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL

解析Circle商业模式：类银行利差+无限扩展，支撑高估值。

别担心！我乐于免费分享观点，主要是为了帮助他人获得满足感。我通过市场交易获利，所以个人觉得没必要将粉丝变现。关于那个问题： $CRCL 的商业模式本质上是金融界的“圣杯”：100% 毛利率，零资本成本，以及无限可扩展性。它简直是一台不停歇的印钞机，这也是其估值/溢价高的原因。银行：2-4% 利息的“储蓄账户”。他们以 6% 贷出。利差约 2-4%。 Circle：你持有 USDC 时支付 0% 利息。他们通过国债以约 5% 借给美国政府。他们的利差是完整的约 5%。我故意简化以解释概念（未计入与 $COIN 的收入分成等细节）：如果 Circle 流通量（USDC）为 600 亿美元：600 亿 × 5% 收益率 = 每年 30 亿美元无风险收入。看 Tether，2024 年报告利润约 130 亿美元。他们也仅用不到 100 名员工就实现了这一点。他们拿“免费资金”（用户存款），购买国债（安全 5%）+ BTC。 Circle + Tether 的商业模式可以说是世界上最好的：从用户那里“印”免费钱，以 X% 借给政府，赚取利差。如果美联储降息至 0%，印钞机不会停，只是像银行一样切换到服务/交易相关收入（但显然会受一点影响）。如果 USDC 扩展到 1 万亿+ 市值或作为数字化美元事实标准的 2 万亿+，若赚取 5%，利润将达（500-1000 亿美元/年）。而目前 Circle 市值 180-200 亿美元，流通供应量 770 亿美元。它也是纯软件，因此可以像 Tether 一样以极少员工扩张，不像银行有极高的 overhead（运营开销）。所以基本上无限可扩展的商业模式（印钞机）结合极高利润率 = 高估值。

英文原文

No worries! I love sharing my thoughts for free mainly for fulfillment in helping others. I make money through markets so I personally don't see any reason why I would need to monetize followers. As for the question: $CRCL's business model is essentially the "Holy Grail" of finance: 100% gross margins, zero cost of capital, and infinite scalability It's literally a non-stop money printer, which is why it yields high valuation/premiums. Banks: 2-4% interest "savings account". They lend it out at 6%. Margin ~2-4%. Circle: Pays you 0%. (when you hold USDC). They lend it to the US Government (via Treasuries) at ~5%. Their margin is the full ~5%. I've dumbing it down on purpose to explain the concept (not factoring in stuff like revenue split with $COIN) but: If Circle has $60 Billion in circulation (USDC): $60B × 5% yield = $3 Billion/year risk-free revenue. If we look at Tether, in 2024, Tether reported ~$13 Billion in profit. They achieved this with fewer than 100 employees too. They took the "free money" (users' deposits), bought Treasuries (safe 5%) + BTC as well. Circle + Tether business models are arguably the best in the world: Print free money (from users), lend at X% to gov, pocket the spread. If Fed cuts to 0%, the money printer doesn't stop, it just shifts gears like banks to service/TX related revenues (but obviously hurts a bit) If USDC expands to $1T+ marketcap or $2T+ as the the de facto standard for a digitalized dollar, profits will be ($50-$100B /year) if they make 5% off that. And right now Circle is a $18-20B marketcap with $77B circulating supply. It's pure software too, so it can expand off low employee counts like Tether, unlike banks that have extremely high overhead. So basically infinitely scalable business model (money printer) combined with extremely high margins = high valuation.

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2025-12-21 个股论点 $CRCL $COIN $BULL

解释此前回避 Circle 是因为流通盘动态，现在重新看多

可以。所以我之前一直说，在 Circle 市值 600 亿美元时，要避开 Circle，或者做空 $CRCL、做多 $COIN。原因是大家没理解流通盘动态。大部分流通股被锁定，不能卖，类似于 BULL IPO。等流通股释放后，Circle 股价就崩了。降息也会伤害稳定币铸币利息带来的盈利能力，但流通盘动态才是压倒性的最大因素。我一直看好 USDC，但市值非常关键。现在它回到 180 亿美元，就变成了极强的买入机会。

英文原文

Sure, so I've been saying avoid Circle or short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap. This was because people didn't understand float dynamics. Majority of the float was locked up and couldn't be sold, similar to BULL IPO. When float was released, the price on Circle crashed. There's stuff like rate cuts too hurting profitability from interest on minted stablecoins, but float dynamics was the biggest factor by a longshot. I've always been bullish on USDC, but market cap plays a huge role. Now it's an extraordinarily strong buy back at $18B

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2025-12-21 供应链分析 $CRCL $COIN

说明 USDC 发行和公链网络价值捕获的关系

@dubiousnoob 所以 $CRCL 和 $COIN 是 USDC 的发行方，你说它是在 Ethereum 上发行是对的。但它也在 Solana、Base、Polygon 等网络上发行。具体网络没那么重要。 Ethereum 网络是基础设施，但 USDC 并不会给 Ethereum 代币带来太多价值捕获。

英文原文

@dubiousnoob So $CRCL and $COIN are the issuers of USDC, you’re correct in saying it’s issued on Ethereum. But it’s also done on Solana, Base, Polygon, and so on. Network doesn’t matter much. Ethereum’s network is the infrastructure but USDC doesnt accrue much value to Ethereum’s token.

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2025-12-10 个股论点 $ALAB $AMKR $AMZN $AVGO $BMNR $CIFR $CLS $COHR $COIN $CRCL $CRDO $CRWV $ETH $FLNC $FLY $GLXY $GOOGL $HIMS $IBIT $IONQ $IREN $KRKNF $KRUS $LITE $META $MPWR $MSTR $NBIS $NFLX $NVDA $OKLO $ORCL $OSS $PLTR $RDDT $RGTI $RKLB $SLNH $SMCI $SNAP $TE $TSLA $TSM $TSSI $TTD $WLAC $WMT $WULF

美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。

美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级：强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释：今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。买入评级：文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。

英文原文

Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.

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2025-11-26 个股论点 $AMZN $CIFR $COIN $FTX $GOOGL $HOOD $IREN $MSFT $NBIS $SOL $TSLA $UBER

Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。

Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。更疯狂的是这一点。其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争：那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报

英文原文

Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor

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2025-11-25 供应链分析 $ALAB $AMD $AVGO $CIFR $CLS $COIN $CRDO $EOS $FLNC $GOOGL $HOOD $IREN $META $MSFT $MU $NBIS $NET $NVDA $SNDK $SOL $STX $TE $TSLA $TSM $VST $WULF

列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇

对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。直接流向以下几个方面：新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN，连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS，能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS，半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM，存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。（该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单：它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事：当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。

英文原文

It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.

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2025-11-24 个股论点 $APLD $BITF $CIFR $CLSK $COIN $CORZ $CRWV $DGDX $FTX $GLXY $GOOGL $GRRR $HIVE $HOOD $IREN $MARA $META $MSFT $NBIS $NET $RIOT $SLNH $SOL $TSLA $UBER $WLAC $WYFI

Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。

Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。

英文原文

Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.

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2025-11-20 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL $USDT

质疑Circle $400估值过高，指出其利息收入需与Coinbase分成。

关于 $CRCL - 人们忽略了它与 $COIN 共享 50% 的利息收入，而 Coinbase 在其平台上独享这部分收入的 100%。如果 Circle 股价达到 $400，其市值将达到 920 亿美元，这超过了 Coinbase（690 亿美元）。而 Coinbase 还有交易所交易收入、ETF 托管收入等。我同意 $150 的估值，但 $400 太牵强了，除非 $USDT 突然消失。

英文原文

So for $CRCL - people are missing it's 50% interest revenue sharing with $COIN and Coinbase has 100% of that revenue split on its platform. Circle at $400 would be a $92B marketcap which is more than Coinbase ($69B). And Coinbase has exchange trading revenue, ETF custody revenue, etc. I'd agree with $150 but $400 is a stretch lol unless $USDT suddenly disappeared.

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2025-11-20 个股论点 $ALAB $AMD $AMZN $APLD $BMNR $BULL $CIFR $COIN $CORZ $CRCL $CRDO $CRWV $DELL $ETOR $FISV $FLNC $FLY $GLXY $GOOGL $HIMS $HOOD $IBIT $IONQ $IREN $KRKNF $KRUS $LTC $META $MRVL $MSFT $MU $NBIS $NVDA $OKLO $ORCL $OSS $PLTR $QBTS $RDDT $RGTI $RKLB $SBET $SG $SLNH $SMCI $SNAP $SOL $TE $TSLA $TSM $TSSI $WLAC $WMT $WULF $WYFI

深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。

基于权益排名表：以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿）个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。

英文原文

Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-25 个股论点 $COIN $CRCL

警告 $CRCL 12 月巨额解禁风险，建议做空并做多 $COIN 对冲。

对 $CRCL 发出重大警告，尤其是临近 12 月 2 日。你交易的是一个低流通盘(low float)股票。 Circle 在 IPO 中以 31 美元的价格售出了 3400 万股 A 类股。目前 A 类股总股本为 202,550,578 股。所有流通 A 类股中的 77.6%（1.57 亿/2.0255 亿）以及约 463% 的 IPO 流通盘将在 12 月解禁(unlocked)。如果非要操作，我建议在事件发生前做空 $CRCL 并做多 $COIN 作为对冲(hedge)。

英文原文

Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float. Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding. 77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO float will be unlocked in December. If anything I'd go short + long COIN as hedge during before the event.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-13 个股论点 $ALAB $AMZN $BKSY $BMNR $BULL $CIFR $COIN $CRCL $CRDO $CRWD $DELL $DKNG $ELOSE $ETH $ETOR $FLNC $FLY $GLXY $GOOGL $GRAB $HOOD $IBIT $IONQ $IREN $LTC $MARA $META $MP $MRVL $MU $NBIS $NET $NVDA $NVO $OKLO $PL $PLTR $QBTS $QUBT $RBRK $RGTI $RIOT $RKLB $RR $SEI $SG $SMCI $SNAP $TGT $TSM $UNH $UPWK $WLAC $WULF

分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。

所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒）（对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。

英文原文

So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-11 个股论点 $ALAB $AMZN $AWS $BITF $BKSY $BMNR $BULL $CIFR $CLSK $COIN $CRCL $CRDO $CRWV $DELL $DKNG $ELOSE $ETH $ETOR $FLNC $FLY $GLXY $GOOGL $GRAB $GRRR $HOOD $HUT $IBIT $IONQ $IREN $LTC $MARA $META $MP $MRVL $MSFT $MU $NBIS $NOSS $NVDA $NVO $OKLO $PAYPAL $PL $PLTR $QBTS $QUBT $RBRK $RGTI $RIOT $RKLB $RR $SEI $SG $SLNH $SMCI $SNAP $SPY $TEMU $TGT $TSLA $TSM $UNH $UPWK $WLAC $WULF $WYFI

基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。

基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池（可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税）我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。（该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行）人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。）这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。

英文原文

Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-08 业绩复盘 $AMD $AMZN $ASTS $BITF $BKKT $BTC $COIN $CRDO $CRWV $DAVE $DFLI $DLFI $DLO $ETOR $FLNC $FLY $FOUR $GRAB $GRRR $HIMS $HOOD $INTC $IREN $LTC $LULU $MELI $META $MP $MRVL $MU $NBIS $NFE $NVO $ONDS $ORCL $RKLB $SEI $SG $SMCI $SNAP $TGT $TSM $TSSI $UNH $UPWK $WLAC

博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。

哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报）减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。

英文原文

Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-07 方法论 $AMD $AMZN $ASTS $BITF $BKKT $BTC $COIN $CRDO $CRWV $DAVE $DLO $ETOR $FOUR $GRAB $GRRR $HIMS $HOOD $INTC $IREN $LTC $LULU $MELI $META $MP $MRVL $NBIS $NFE $NVO $ONDS $ORCL $RKLB $SG $SMCI $SNAP $TGT $TSM $TSSI $UNH $UPWK

博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。

@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）

英文原文

@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-10-03 方法论 $AMZN $CIFR $COIN $GOOGL $HIMS $HOOD $IBIT $META $MRVL $MSFT $NBIS $OKLO $OPEN $QBTS $RKLB $SPY $TGT $TTD

分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。

我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。（引用内容）：激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出，而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。

英文原文

I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-29 个股论点 $COIN $RDDT $SPY

建议像交易COIN那样波段操作RDDT，并关注其纳入标普500后的趋势变化。

@strandedpsgr 呃，我现在对待它更像对待 $COIN，认为在下次回调时可能再次在 $100 多美元买入 $RDDT。或者像 Coinbase 那样进行 $150 到 $350 的数月期波段交易，但这种趋势在纳入标普500指数(SPY)后可能会改变。

英文原文

@strandedpsgr Uh I treat it more like $COIN at this point where you can probably buy $RDDT in the $100's again next drawndown. Or with Coinbase $150 <-> $350 few month trade, but this trend might change after SPY inclusion.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-28 方法论 $AMZN $CIFR $COIN $GOOGL $HIMS $HOOD $IBIT $IIBIT $META $MRVL $MSFT $NBIS $OKLO $OPEN $QBTS $RKLB $SPY $TGT $TSM $TTD

分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。

激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例：以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。这也是为了激进复利期权卖出，而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。

英文原文

Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-25 业绩复盘 $AMD $AMZN $ASTS $BITF $BKKT $BTC $CIFR $COIN $CRDO $CRWV $DAVE $DLO $ETOR $FOUR $GOOGL $GRAB $GRRR $HIMS $HOOD $INTC $IREN $LTC $LULU $MELI $META $MP $MRVL $NBIS $NFE $NVO $ONDS $ORCL $RKLB $SG $SMCI $SNAP $TGT $TSM $TSSI $UNH $UPWK $Z

分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。

9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。

英文原文

So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-24 个股论点 $AMD $AMZN $ASTS $BITF $BKKT $BTC $COIN $CRDO $CRWV $DAVE $DLO $ETOR $FOUR $GRAB $GRRR $HIMS $HOOD $INTC $IREN $LTC $LULU $MELI $META $MP $MRVL $NBIS $NFE $NVO $ONDS $ORCL $RKLB $SG $SMCI $SNAP $TGT $TSM $TSSI $UNH $UPWK

博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。

我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR

英文原文

I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-23 个股论点 $COIN $CRWV $HOOD $IREN $NBIS

类比Coinbase与Robinhood，看好NBIS超越CRWV，IREN暂无巨头订单

@NeuralCadence $COIN 就像 $CRWV 的等价物，为该板块的公司设定了市值标杆。 $NBIS 就像 $HOOD，拥有更健康的资产负债表、更多元化的客户群等。我认为 $NBIS 将在一两年内超越 $CRWV，就像 $HOOD 超越 $COIN 那样。 $IREN 目前还没有与“七大科技巨头(Mag7)”的合作协议。

英文原文

@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector. $NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc. I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN. $IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-16 个股论点 $BULL $COIN $CRCL

批评忽视流通盘解锁的技术分析，指出CRCL估值过高适合做空。

我们同意市场是非理性的——但你的阅读理解能力跟你的技术分析(TA)一样糟糕。你漏掉的要点是：当技术分析(TA)忽略流通盘(float)和基本面时，它毫无用处。如果像 $BULL 那样，1%的流通盘驱动市值而99%后续解锁，图表分析就不重要了。我提到的唯一估值点是：如果 $CRCL 交易价格超过 $COIN 的一半，它就是一个很好的做空标的，因为利息收入是五五分成。我对 USDC 看涨，但 Circle 今天 $200 的估值应该高于 Coinbase 的一半。总之，在忽略100多亿美元解锁和收入分成的情况下画技术分析图表，并用“市场非理性”来辩解，正是亏掉粉丝金钱的方式。

英文原文

We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase. Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.

详情页 → 原推 ↗
2025-09-16 个股论点 $BULL $COIN $CRCL

CRCL受流通盘限制估值虚高，解禁后回归基本面，建议做空CRCL做多COIN。

吐槽：这张 $CRCL 图表很好地说明了为什么技术分析(TA)意义不大——基本面更重要。当人们在 IPO 时发布 $BULL 的技术分析时，我正在做权证套利并翻白眼。BULL 从 10 美元涨到 70 多美元，但人们只在 1% 的流通盘中交易。当股份解禁时，BULL 跌回了 10 美元的 IPO 价。对于 CRCL，我们看到从 31 美元 IPO 价涨到 200 多美元，因为人们在有限流通盘中交易，且市值几乎与 $COIN 相当（后者拥有加密货币交易所，并与 Circle 有 50% 的利息收入分成）。当 140 多万股 Circle 股份提前解禁时，价格暴跌回 130 美元。如果你看到 $CRCL 回到 200 美元，这是一个轻松的空 Circle 多 Coinbase 策略。完整的 180 天禁售期在 12 月 2 日结束，两个月后你还有超过 100 亿美元的潜在抛压。我对 USDC 和 Circle/Coin 持看涨态度，但鉴于现有的商业模式，考虑到像 Tether 这样的稳定币业务通过利息收入赚钱，$CRCL 在今天 200 美元时价值超过 $COIN 的一半是没有道理的。在即将到来的股份解禁面前，技术分析毫无意义。教训：流通盘和基本面 > 图表上的线条。

英文原文

Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more. When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes. BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price. For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange) When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130. If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play. The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months. I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income. TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups. Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.

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2025-08-25 方法论 $COIN $CRCL $DUOL $GOOGL $HOOD $KSPI $MRVL $MSTR $NVDA $NVO $PLTR $SG $SNAP $TSLA $UNH $UPWK

建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。

一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。

英文原文

Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.

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2025-07-02 个股论点 $COIN $ETORO $MARA $MSTR

$ETORO 利润三成来自加密，低位或有补涨潜力。

鉴于 $ETORO 是一只新上市股票，它可能尚未像（比特币 -> $MSTR -> $COIN -> $MARA 等）那样与加密货币紧密关联。然而，$ETORO 37% 的利润来自加密货币，且目前处于低位，因此可能像其股价从 $61 飙升至 $76 的那天一样，有补涨空间。

英文原文

Given how ETORO is a new stock, it's likely not associated with Crypto yet like how (Bitcoin -> $MSTR -> $COIN -> $MARA, etc). However, 37% of $ETORO's profits come from Crypto and it's at a low so might have some room to catch up like the day they spiked $61 -> $76

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