· 个股论点

解析Circle商业模式:类银行利差+无限扩展,支撑高估值。

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中文翻译

别担心!我乐于免费分享观点,主要是为了帮助他人获得满足感。 我通过市场交易获利,所以个人觉得没必要将粉丝变现。 关于那个问题: $CRCL 的商业模式本质上是金融界的“圣杯”:100% 毛利率,零资本成本,以及无限可扩展性。 它简直是一台不停歇的印钞机,这也是其估值/溢价高的原因。 银行:2-4% 利息的“储蓄账户”。他们以 6% 贷出。利差约 2-4%。 Circle:你持有 USDC 时支付 0% 利息。他们通过国债以约 5% 借给美国政府。他们的利差是完整的约 5%。 我故意简化以解释概念(未计入与 $COIN 的收入分成等细节): 如果 Circle 流通量(USDC)为 600 亿美元:600 亿 × 5% 收益率 = 每年 30 亿美元无风险收入。 看 Tether,2024 年报告利润约 130 亿美元。他们也仅用不到 100 名员工就实现了这一点。他们拿“免费资金”(用户存款),购买国债(安全 5%)+ BTC。 Circle + Tether 的商业模式可以说是世界上最好的: 从用户那里“印”免费钱,以 X% 借给政府,赚取利差。如果美联储降息至 0%,印钞机不会停,只是像银行一样切换到服务/交易相关收入(但显然会受一点影响)。 如果 USDC 扩展到 1 万亿+ 市值或作为数字化美元事实标准的 2 万亿+,若赚取 5%,利润将达(500-1000 亿美元/年)。 而目前 Circle 市值 180-200 亿美元,流通供应量 770 亿美元。 它也是纯软件,因此可以像 Tether 一样以极少员工扩张,不像银行有极高的 overhead(运营开销)。 所以基本上无限可扩展的商业模式(印钞机)结合极高利润率 = 高估值。

英文原文

No worries! I love sharing my thoughts for free mainly for fulfillment in helping others. I make money through markets so I personally don't see any reason why I would need to monetize followers. As for the question: $CRCL's business model is essentially the "Holy Grail" of finance: 100% gross margins, zero cost of capital, and infinite scalability It's literally a non-stop money printer, which is why it yields high valuation/premiums. Banks: 2-4% interest "savings account". They lend it out at 6%. Margin ~2-4%. Circle: Pays you 0%. (when you hold USDC). They lend it to the US Government (via Treasuries) at ~5%. Their margin is the full ~5%. I've dumbing it down on purpose to explain the concept (not factoring in stuff like revenue split with $COIN) but: If Circle has $60 Billion in circulation (USDC): $60B × 5% yield = $3 Billion/year risk-free revenue. If we look at Tether, in 2024, Tether reported ~$13 Billion in profit. They achieved this with fewer than 100 employees too. They took the "free money" (users' deposits), bought Treasuries (safe 5%) + BTC as well. Circle + Tether business models are arguably the best in the world: Print free money (from users), lend at X% to gov, pocket the spread. If Fed cuts to 0%, the money printer doesn't stop, it just shifts gears like banks to service/TX related revenues (but obviously hurts a bit) If USDC expands to $1T+ marketcap or $2T+ as the the de facto standard for a digitalized dollar, profits will be ($50-$100B /year) if they make 5% off that. And right now Circle is a $18-20B marketcap with $77B circulating supply. It's pure software too, so it can expand off low employee counts like Tether, unlike banks that have extremely high overhead. So basically infinitely scalable business model (money printer) combined with extremely high margins = high valuation.

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