$SMCI
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AI产业链各环节财报强劲，需求与订单爆发式增长。
今天AI主题的财报简直疯狂，涉及$CRWV、$SMCI和$LITE。 Coreweave：荒谬的~1040亿美元+积压订单，这还不包括Q3初新增的250亿美元+客户协议。 Neoclouds（如Nebius、Iren等）的计算需求传导效应巨大。 Supermicro：荒谬的650-720亿美元营收指引，新增600亿美元+订单... AI数据中心建设的传导效应极其巨大。 Lumentum：营收从8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿美元攀升，运营利润率逐季增长。 光子学玩家一直在疯狂印钞。 简而言之：AI建设的每一层都在疯狂爆发，且体现在财报中。
英文原文
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
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SMCI因合规历史被市场折价，不适合所有人
@throw_away_9264 是的，鉴于其过往的合规失败历史，我认为市场对 $SMCI 施加折价是正确的。这绝对不是适合所有人的投资。
英文原文
@throw_away_9264 Yep, I still think markets are correct to apply discounts to $SMCI given history with compliance failures. Definitely not for everyone
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基于2026年H1营收预测，SMCI远期市盈率约4.1倍。
@KHqmjz 如果套用他们2026年至今的净利率，$SMCI 约为 ~7.7%。 如果他们在2026年上半年实现700亿美元营收且保持相同净利率，远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 约为 ~4.1倍。
英文原文
@KHqmjz If you apply their net margin for 2026 so far, $SMCI is around ~7.7%. If they do $70B revenue for H1 2026 with the same net margins, would be round ~4.1x forward earnings.
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SMCI 2027 营收指引大幅超预期，博主看好其估值重估空间并持有短期多头。
$SMCI 2027 年的指引简直“邪门”：FY 2027 营收指引为 650-720 亿美元…… 相比之下，市场预期约为 524 亿美元，轻松超出共识 161 亿美元。 SMCI 在此次财报中录得了超过 600 亿美元的新增订单。 这个时间线也很有趣，因为他们在 6 月曾宣布计划与 $SPCX 和 xAI 在“一年内”联合建设数据中心(DC)。 但如果 SMCI 能在那约 700 亿美元的营收指引下维持 10-15% 的毛利率……我认为鉴于市值(MC)仅约 200 亿美元，估值重估的空间很大（非财务建议，NFA，我目前基于此次财报持有 SMCI 的短期头寸）。 最重要的是从今天的电话会议中了解 2027 年的毛利率情况。
英文原文
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
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调侃1300磅炉子不像SMCI把GPU藏吹风机盒那么容易。
回复 @OriginalTrades：我不太认为隐藏1300磅的炉子，会像 $SMCI 把 GPU 走私进吹风机盒子那么容易。
英文原文
@OriginalTrades I don't quite think hiding 1300 pound furnaces is as easy as smuggling GPUs like $SMCI into hairdryer boxes.
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批评伪专家只会堆术语不懂底层技术
我百分之百确定，如果现实里见到你们这些“photonic memory（光子内存）”专家，500 个里有 498 个都讲不清 CXL 内存池化、KV cache 基础设施，以及 $PENG 到底是怎么从中变现的。 这就是为什么我现在时间线上总能看到一堆和技术无关的 $RKLB、$HIMS，或者非技术型 AI 专家。 你们在我的帖子下面胡乱评论，把 M7U MOCVD capex 和 $TSEM 这些完全不相关的东西说错，或者把每个术语都混成像 $SMCI 集成商那样，还硬往 photonics IP 上套。 然后就在我每条帖子下面塞满 buzzword。
英文原文
I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.
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解释 photonic memory 其实是整机集成层逻辑
@vz921 他们 P/S 低，是因为本质上就是 $SMCI、$DELL、$FLNC 这一类集成商。 他们只是把 photonic memory 当作核心部件装进整机里，再拿它去和真正拥有核心半导体 IP 的公司对比。 X 上到处都是这种说法，真的很烦。 https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
英文原文
@vz921 They have low P/S ratios because it's an $SMCI $DELL $FLNC type integrator. Then they just throw in photonic memory when they build the appliance around it, then compare it to core semiconductor IP holders. It's annoying seeing stuff like this all over X. https://t.co/PyqMGpZZHX
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区分 PENG 的整机层与真正的光子内核 IP
说得很细。买 $PENG 去押 $MRVL 的“photonic memory”大概率会失望。 他们更像是 $SMCI 那一层的集成商，外加一些潜在的软件增值。 高毛利、真正的基础 IP 属于 Celestial 或 Lightmatter 这类公司。 他们做的是在机架里围绕 Celestial / Marvell 的 photonic memory IP 搭一个 2U 盒子。 这也还处在联合开发阶段。 散户只是把这些层级全搞混了，以为这家公司在做核心 photonic memory IP。 我不是在评论股价会不会涨，只是说它的基础业务确实有意义；如果能越过 sampling，向上的弹性会很大。 只是每次看到别人把“PHOTONIC MEMORY”挂在嘴边就很烦。 他们做的其实只是放核心 IP 的机箱，连 qualification 都还没到。
英文原文
Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.
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认为还有很多好机会，SMCI、AAOI、AEHR 等都不错。
@DegnFarmer 哦我在看。市场上现在还有很多不错的机会，比如 $SMCI 18.5 美元、$AAOI 86 美元、$AEHR 等等。
英文原文
@DegnFarmer Oh I am. There's a ton of good opportunities ON, $SMCI at $18.5, $AAOI at $86, $AEHR, etc.
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认为 SMCI 光学业务很差，但按约 120 亿美元市值看，业务本身仍可能被低估。
@afgmantu 听我说……$SMCI 的光学业务烂得不行。 但它本身的业务按大约 120 亿美元市值看，似乎又被低估了。所以这里也许值得冒点风险。
英文原文
@afgmantu Hear me out... $SMCI optics are trash. But business itself looks undervalued at ~$12B MC. So might be worth taking the risk here.
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认为 SMCI 约 130 亿美元估值具备买点，即使短期波动也不太可能跌破 100 亿美元。
@gofallingknife 同意，我也觉得 $SMCI 130 亿美元的估值看起来像个买点。 短期围绕这个价位可能还会有波动，但从基本面看，很难想象它会跌破 100 亿美元。
英文原文
@gofallingknife Agreed, $13B valuation for $SMCI looks like a buying opportunity to me as well. Could be near term fluctuations around the level but hard to see it going below $10B given fundamentals
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认为 Hindenburg 的报告被做空做坏了，也可能促成了今天对 SMCI 相关人士的指控。
@BreakoutPoint 对，那份报告就是被 Hindenburg 做坏了，而这很可能也导致了今天针对 $SMCI 相关个人的指控。
英文原文
@BreakoutPoint Yep Hidenburg cooked on that report and that likely led to the charges of individuals from $SMCI today.
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认为市场上围绕 SMCI 的噪音很多，但当前更重要的是估值和公司本身的美国属性。
@StrategicParry 同意，外面显然还有更好的机会。 我只是看到很多关于 $SMCI 的新闻，但没人把自己到底是什么立场说清楚。 不过话说回来，$SMCI 实际上是一家美国公司，只是和台湾有很深的渊源，并不是中国公司。
英文原文
@StrategicParry Agreed, there's clearly better opportunities out there. I'm just seeing a lot of news around $SMCI, but nobody stating any clear positions they have. That being said $SMCI is actual an American company with deep roots to Taiwan, not a Chinese one.
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认为若 SMCI 继续下跌，基本面可能会压过监管压力，且很多风险早已被市场消化。
我个人的看法是，如果 $SMCI 继续跌下去，基本面很可能会压过监管层面的压力。 很大一部分风险其实在 2024 年就已经差不多被知道了，并随着时间被逐步计价。今天只是对这些内容以及其规模的确认。 不过话说回来，显然还有更好的机会。
英文原文
This is just my personal view that if $SMCI drops further than here, fundamentals probably outweigh regulatory overhang. Large part of it was already kinda known from 2024, and priced in over time. Today was just confirmation of it, along with the scale. That being said, there's clearly better opportunities out there.
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$SMCI监管风险或致买入机会，剥离噪音后估值约10-11倍PE。
所有人都在关注$SMCI向中国走私价值数十亿美元AI芯片的事。 但没有人回答这个问题： 我如何从中赚钱，这是否是买入机会？ 我的答案是： 如果$SMCI跌破约$24很多，甚至更低。在约$140亿市值时就像是买入机会。 所有人看美国司法部(DOJ)的案子都觉得超微电脑完蛋了。 但有两点： 1. 到目前为止公司本身似乎被隔离了（未被列为被告） 2. $SMCI向中国国有机构销售芯片早已是公开的（只是程度没达到$25亿以上），通过2024年浑水做空报告(Hindenburg short seller reports)。 所以中国收入的这部分有相当一部分已经被定价了，这就是为什么$SMCI从$100以上暴跌到现在交易价$24。 现在如果我们剥离表象和一些实质收入： -> $SMCI GAAP净收入去年为$10.5亿，2026财年估计约为$12.5亿，部分估计高达$15亿。 然后我们剔除约$1.5亿走私利润从财务报表中：$10.5亿 -> ~$9亿？ 按市盈率(P/E)计算，作为成长型公司仍然相对便宜，大约10-11倍？ 现在看跌的风险： -> 舆论形象仍然很糟糕。你可以往垃圾堆里再加垃圾。 但反正还是垃圾，没什么大变化？ -> $NVDA疏远$SMCI？（他们2024年已经这么做了）。 -> $SMCI未被列为被告，但如果美国证券交易委员会(SEC)/美国司法部(DOJ)起诉他们，那么会有大量监管费用和可能的罚款。 -> 也许会有订单取消，但如果2024年面临问题时他们没有取消订单，现在应该也没问题？ 现在...有没有比承担这个监管风险更好的机会？ 100%有。 恐慌时会有更多下行空间吗？ 是的。 但如果剥离噪音，$SMCI作为一家公司在约$140亿市值、按10-11倍远期盈利计算看起来很便宜。
英文原文
Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头头寸。
@Cheva28789724 这是我之前关于 $VPG 的分析文章。 https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人 Humanoid 放量最不对称的单一敞口，特别是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司生产： 估计占每个人形机器人 BOM（物料清单）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆在 2027 年实现其德克萨斯州 Gigafactory 1000 万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种数学计算极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每个人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生的话）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化后的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55% 左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 85 亿美元收入以 55% 利润率计算： - 20 倍市盈率将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉涨前（3 美元 -> 113 美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30 美元 -> 453 美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领任何映射研究，它们由其他分析师完成）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年以来一直在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们自行研发专利技术/材料并放弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 放量挂钩，始终存在被放弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化的人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年将是机器人的拐点，而 $VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@Cheva28789724 This was my write up about $VPG earlier https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头仓位。
@StocksSoccer 我确实持有仓位，这是我之前对 $VPG 的看法： $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人（Humanoid）放量最不对称的单一敞口，涉及： - $TSLA Optimus - Figure AI 因为这家市值5.8亿美元的公司制造： 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单(BOM)成本的3-9%。 如果埃隆在2027年实现德州超级工厂1000万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到85亿美元（850美元中位数 * 1000万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获500-1200美元（850美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每机器人成本为2-3万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每个特斯拉机器人中估计获得~3%-9%+的BOM份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约80%的价值可能来自Optimus机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为50%至55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器+外壳+电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55%左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于2028年实现1000万台人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括Figure、OpenAI或其他潜在客户） 85亿美元收入的55%利润率： - 20倍市盈率(P/E)将是476亿美元 - 30倍市盈率 833亿美元 从5.8亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 服务器机架拉涨前（3美元->113美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30美元->453美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家5.8亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线匹配研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于Citron等第三方估计的假设建模，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能不会如期进行。 - $TSLA 可能自2022年以来就在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉Optimus放量挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像2025年一样停滞（尽管2025年仍有~85%的回报）。 但总之(TLDR)： 我的观点是，像Citron这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于OpenAI上周进军机器人领域： 我认为2026年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例BOM成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头仓位来看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究(DYOR)，我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@StocksSoccer I do own positions, this was my take on $VPG earlier https://t.co/OE9toKfSbh
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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作者看好$VPG为人形机器人拐点标的，类比$SNDK/$SMCI早期，已建仓。
看来市场开始关注 $VPG 了。 这是我机器人板块的首选股。 它让我想起当前内存行情启动前 $30 的 $SNDK，最终涨至 $470。 或者 AI 建设行情启动前 $1.3 的 $SMCI，最终涨至 $100。 这可能是人形机器人行业的拐点。 https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
英文原文
Looks like markets are starting to find out about $VPG. This is my top robotics sector stock. And reminds me of $SNDK at $30 before current memory rally to $470. Or $SMCI at $1.3 before the AI buildout rally to $100. This may be the inflection point for robotics humanoids. https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，具高BOM占比与非对称收益潜力。
$VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人量产（Humanoid ramp）最具非对称性敞口的标的，尤其是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司： - 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单（BOM）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆·马斯克在 2027 年实现德州超级工厂年产 1000 万台的目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的产量预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人量产的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人量产，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门利润率约为“55% 左右”。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 55% 利润率对应 85 亿美元收入： - 20 倍市盈率（P/E）将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很荒谬，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉升前（$3 -> $113）或 $SNDK 的拉升（$30 -> $453）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆（Operating Leverage）才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人量产条件成熟，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线映射研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入增长可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年起就在使用 $VPG 并开始扩大规模。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 量产挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个人形机器人规模化博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人量产的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司可能占据每个部署机器人高比例的 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立这个多头信念的。
英文原文
$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks. However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI as this $580m company makes: est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid. $8.5B revenue may come from $TSLA alone ($850 midpoint * 10M) every year if Elon hits his 10M Giga Texas production target in 2027. This is based on $VPG CEO's quote on value capture of $500–$1,200 per robot ($850 midpoint) and Elon's ambitious projections on production targets. Again this math is extremely speculative, but Elon quotes $20-30k/humanoid at scale and you can derive an est. ~3%-9%+ of BOM from each Tesla Robot produced (if this does ever happen) for $VPG. If you consider Elon Musk saying "About 80% of Tesla's Value Could Eventually Come From Optimus Robots": This looks like great exposure for robotics ramp for such a small company that's critical in the robotics supply chain. What I believe markets also missed is factoring in low end corporate margins to for blended margin estimates: ~40% However, the humanoid-specific gross margin at scale is projected to be 50% to 55% (and with current robotics ramp, blended margins would likely increase significantly). Their integrated actuator/sensor Modules (sensor + housing + electronics) is likely directly tethered to humanoid exposure, (measurement systems segment which houses these complex assemblies), which the CEO said on their earnings call achieves margins of "55% or so". In a bull case scenario where Elon hits his 10M humanoid projections in 2028 (single customer, not including Figure, OpenAI, or other potential customers) 55% margin off $8.5B revenue at : - 20x P/E would be $47.6 Billion -30x P/E $83.3 Billion from $580m MC. It sounds stupid, but when I look at $SMCI pre-server rack rally ($3 -> $113) or $SNDK's rally ($30 -> $453), it looks possible. Again this is speculative best case possible scenario, but the operating leverage is the real story here. So I think it's likely for this small $580m company to be strongly re-rated if the stars align for robotics ramp. Now downside risk: - The other humanoid provider is likely to be Figure due to timeline mapping. But this is not confirmed. (not taking credit for either mapping research, they were done by other analysts). These figures are hypothetical modeling based on third-party estimates like Citron, gross margins might be compressed if there's competitors or revenue ramp might not play out. - $TSLA has likely been using $VPG since 2022 and is starting to ramp up. There is always a risk they figure out the patented technology/materials in-house and drop a customer. This bull-case scenario is tethered to Tesla Optimus ramp and there's always a risk they get dropped that markets might price in. - Again this is a humanoid scale play. If Elon's projections are too ambitious and face delays, this might be stagnant like 2025 (which was still ~85% return). But TLDR: My opinion was that institutional analysts like Citron were way too early. However, given OpenAI's push into robotics last week: I believe 2026 to be the inflection point for robotics and $VPG likely captures the best exposure to Tesla and Humanoid robotics ramp. Especially when a small company likely has high % BOM cost of each robot deployed and high gross margins: I've taken long positions to see where this ends up. Of course DYOR on this, I just wanted to share how I came to develop my own conviction on this long.
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作者买入SMCI并看多，认为高盛报告低估了其利润率扩张潜力。
我也在$28.3美元买入了一些$SMCI。一直在做波段交易。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师报告充其量极其懒惰。SMCI将2026年的营收预期上调至360亿美元，同比增长超过50%+。这部分源于升级周期带来的硬件成本增加。但他们似乎不理解短期定价策略以锁定初始数字租赁承诺(DLC)周期，利润率会随时间扩张。他们认为预测的9.5%左右的毛利率是永久性的，但实际上它们应该会随时间增加。在我看来，这是一个很好的长线机会，我不同意其他分析师的观点。SMCI看起来定价错误。
英文原文
I bought $SMCI as well at $28.3 as well. Have been swing trading it. Goldman Sachs's analyst report extremely lazy at best. SMCI raised revenue growth over 50%+ to $36B revenue 2026. Part of that is increased hardware costs from upgrade cycle. But they don't seem to understand short term margin pricing to lock in initial DLC cycles, where margins expand over time. They think the forecasted gross margins like 9.5% is permanent, but they should increase over time. Great long here IMO, disagree with the other analysts. SMCI looks mispriced.
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博主建仓$OSS，认为其作为AI军事承包商被低估，毛利率高且获实战验证。
为什么我所有的选股本周都涨了约60%？$OSS https://t.co/VDO58928xd （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 我已在 $OSS 建立头寸。 我通常从不这么说，但这次令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这为 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的做多机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因高需求而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为证明其在美国军队中实际使用的证据： $OSS P-8 海神(Poseidon)在委内瑞拉： - 飞行跟踪数据证实，来自第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “捕获小组”： - 捕获领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团(直升机)。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境构建边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗跟踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇(无人机船)封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军“第59特遣队”（及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。针对一家市值1.55亿美元的小盘股。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 这样的商品股（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或商品销售商（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的防御AI纯标的，专注于无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，因此我建立了头寸。
英文原文
Why are all my picks up like 60% this week $OSS https://t.co/VDO58928xd
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建仓$VLN，利用分析师笔误导致的市场错杀及CES新业务利好。
我建仓了$VLN（市值1.55亿美元）。 这个太疯狂了。 Valens是一家专注于自动驾驶汽车和机器人的AI半导体公司。 我发现市场因代码碰撞数据错误而误判了VLS，并且错过了本周CES 2026的新信息。 VLN拥有： 1. 9350万美元现金，0债务。 2. 约1100万美元库存。 3. 高毛利率~69.1%（CIB/ProAV业务），汽车业务43.2%。 预计营收超7000万美元，综合毛利率63-65%（从CES公布的汽车业务转型后由43%跃升）。 市值仅1.55亿美元？什么鬼？ 乍一看这数据完全不对劲，所以我做了更多研究，排查是否是营收崩溃、稀释、现金流问题或监管风险。 发生了什么？ 定价错误源于分析师/扫描器关于8200万美元“库存消耗”的笔误： VLN实际上是一家拥有9350万美元现金和零债务的公司，企业价值(EV)约6500万美元，而市场却因一个根本不存在的“库存危机”惩罚它。 Streetwise的分析+其他扫描器在2025年11月13日左右笔误报告，错误地称：“8200万美元的库存与第二季度末持平”。 市场和扫描报告的算法认为$VLN积压了超过1年的死库存（8200万美元），并烧光了9350万美元的现金储备用于未售出的芯片。 我们可以用公司官方2025年Q3资产负债表从数学上证明这是笔误： 总资产：1.367亿美元 现金：~9350万美元 剩余资产空间：1.367亿 - 9350万 = 4320万美元。 如果库存真的是8200万美元，总资产至少要是1.75亿美元（9300万现金+8200万库存）。这个库存数字在数学上是不可能的。 查看财务报告后，他们只有约2个月的库存（1100万美元），只卖生产的。 分析师+算法在传播报告时，将Valens Semiconductor (VLN) 与加拿大工业阀门制造商Velan Inc.（拥有该库存量）混淆了。 甚至阅读此报告的LLM也完全搞错了，需要人工审核。 $VLN作为一家无晶圆厂芯片公司，实际上只有~1100万美元库存，并没有烧掉8200万美元。 这看起来像是一个真正的市场低效，因为你看到的是一张干净的资产负债表（9300万现金，1100万库存，0债务），却因笔误导致的8200万美元现金消耗恐惧而被人为压低。 _ 现在，第二个方面是本周CES发布的新信息。 $VLN花费多年和数百万美元为奔驰研发DSP引擎，这曾带来汽车业务的单一客户集中风险。 但从本周CES发布的信息看，他们有效地将同一款引擎销售给了许多具有相同物理问题的热门垂直领域。他们还通过与新的T1汽车OEM合作扩大了之前的汽车业务规模。 但关于他们的(VS6320 vs. VA7000)芯片组，他们使用的是相同的Core IP (DSP)。 医疗芯片：他们从汽车芯片中提取引擎，去除汽车特定功能，为医疗领域创建扩展器。 我最喜欢的是机器视觉/机器人垂直领域： 新信息是，通过与RGo Robotics宣布的合作伙伴关系，RGo集成了Valens芯片，允许RGo设计摄像头远离大脑且无信号损失的机器人。在CES上，他们还宣布与CIS Corporation（一家日本相机制造商）合作，取得另一个特定的机器人胜利。 他们有效地将汽车业务多元化到多个其他高增长+高毛利的机器人计算机视觉等领域。 再次强调，Alpha在于他们CES宣布的新机器人业务，销售周期为6个月，而不是汽车行业的5年周期。所以营收今年就能体现。 此外，分析师使用混合汽车营收（奔驰等）计算较低的毛利率（~42-45%）。 现在增长的新业务（通过VS6320的机器人/医疗）具有显著更高的毛利率（VS6320毛利率：~69-70%），因此综合毛利率可能会显著高于市场共识。 _ 现在，下行风险？ 权证行权价11.5美元的极度稀释（是当前价格的10倍以上）。 如果股价从1.5美元上涨1000%到11.5美元，这将限制上行空间。 _ TLDR： 市场预计2026年因代码碰撞笔误导致的库存风险会有高现金消耗。相反，他们可能会得到： 营收和盈利超预期（由新垂直领域和新高芯片带来的~69%+综合毛利率驱动）。以及因笔误修正带来的7000万美元+现金流超预期。 我们可能看到8500-9200万美元营收，综合毛利率63-65%，以及8200万美元+现金被重新计入这家1.55亿美元市值的公司。 算法将$VLN定价为因虚假8200万美元库存堆积（源于毒丸数据点）而剩余跑道<1年。这是我基于公开信息合成进入此交易的个人论点，NFI（非财务建议）。 所以虽然我不指望它成为20亿美元+的公司，但当前市值对于一家 1.55亿美元市值的半导体公司来说是完全非理性的定价： - 9350万美元现金 - 1100万美元库存， - 预计8000万美元+营收（同比增长20%-30%+） - 60%+综合毛利率。 具有60%+毛利率的无晶圆厂半导体公司通常以4x–8x EV/Revenue交易，行业平均估值保守基准为4.935亿美元，相对于1.55亿美元。 加上轻微的“AI/机器人”溢价，可以估值6.535亿美元（7倍EV/Revenue，~320%+） TLDR：发现这家公司可能因笔误+代码碰撞导致的虚假8200万美元库存消耗而被人为压低，并即将进入新的高毛利+增长周期的新垂直领域。 我正在利用数据库碰撞错误。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC). This one is wild. Valens is a AI semi for self-driving cars and robotics. I've found that markets messed up on VLS from a ticker collision data error. And missed new CES 2026 info this week. VLN has: 1. $93.5M in Cash, 0 Debt. 2. ~$11M inventory 3. High gross margins ~69.1% (CIB/ProAV) margins, 43.2% automotive. and projected to do $70M+ revenue with blended 63-65% gross margins, jumping from 43% from their automotive pivot from CES. At $155M MC. What? This just looked way too off at first glance, so I had to do more research, whether it was revenue collapse, dilution, cashflow problems, or regulatory risk. What happened? The mispricing was from an analyst/scanner typo regarding a $82M "inventory burn": VLN is effectively a company with $93.5M Cash and Zero Debt for an EV of ~$65M, while the market has punished it for an "inventory crisis" that literally does not exist. Streetwise's analysis + other scanners around Nov 13, 2025 typo'ed their report when they erroneously stated: "Inventory of US$82 million remained in line with the end of the second quarter". The market and algorithms that scan for the reports thinks $VLN is sitting on >1 year of dead inventory ($82M) and burnt through their $93.5M cashpile on unsold chips. We can mathematically prove this is a typo using the company's official Q3 2025 balance sheet: Total Assets: $136.7M Cash: ~$93.5M Remaining Room for Assets: $136.7M - $93.5M = $43.2M. If inventory were actually $82M, Total Assets would have to be at least $175M ($93M cash + $82M inv). This inventory figure is mathematically impossible. After looking at their financial reports, they are sitting on just ~2 months of inventory ($11M), only selling what they make. The analyst + algorithms wrote spread the report confused Valens Semiconductor (VLN) with Velan Inc. (https://t.co/oJVlzuwtoL), a Canadian industrial valve manufacturer (with that inventory amount). Even LLMs that read this, completely messed up and required manual review. $VLN actually only has ~$11M in inventory as a fabless chip company and did not burn through $82M. This looks like a genuine market inefficiency because you are looking at a clean balance sheet ($93M cash, $11M inventory, $0 debt) that has been artificially suppressed because of $82M cash burn fears on dead inventory due to the type. _ Now, the secondary aspect is new CES information that came out. $VLN spent years and millions on R&D for DSP engines for Mercedes, which presented single customer concentration risk for the automotive segment. But from the CES release this week, they've effectively took the same that exact same engine, and managed to sell it to many hot verticals that have the exact same physics problem. They've also managed to scale their previous automotive segment with new T1 automotive OEMs. But regarding their (VS6320 vs. VA7000) chipset, they are using the same Core IP (DSP). Medical Chip: They took the same engine from the auto chip and stripped out the car-specific features to create a Extender for the medical segment . And my favorite is the Machine Vision/Robotics vertical: The new information is that with the RGo Robotics partnership they announced, RGo integrated Valens chips which allowed RGo to design robots where the cameras are far away from the brain without signal loss. And at CES they also announced one with CIS Corporation (a Japanese camera maker) for another specific robotics win. They've effectively diversified their automotive segment into multiple other high growing + higher margin verticals for robotics computer vision to others. Again, the alpha is that their new robotics segments announced at CES, operate on a 6-month sales cycle, not the 5-year automotive cycle. So revenue actually hits this year too. Also, analysts were using blended automotive revenue (Mercedes, etc.) has lower gross margins (~42-45%). The new growth coming in now (Robotics/Medical via VS6320) has significantly higher margins (VS6320 Gross Margin: ~69-70%), so the the blended gross margins will likely come in significantly higher than street consensus. _ Now the downside? Extremely heavy dilution at $11.5 Strike from warrants (which is 10X+ from here). This will cap upside if it ever increases 1000% from $1.5 to $11.5 _ TLDR: The market expected 2026 with high cash burn from inventory risk from a ticker collision typo. Instead, they are likely to get: Revenue and earnings beat (driven by new verticals and much higher blended margins ~69%+ from new chip). As well as an $70M+ cashflow beat from the typo. We could see $85-$92M revenue off 63-65% blended gross margins and that $82M+ in cash modeled back into this $155m company. The algorithms are pricing $VLN as if it has <1 year of runway due to a phantom $82M inventory pile (off of a poison pill data point). So this is my own personal thesis from public information synthesis on why I entered this trade, NFI. So while I don't expect this to be a $2B+ company, the current MC is just completely irrational pricing for a $155M MC semi: - with $93.5m in cash - $11m in inventory, - est. $80m+ revenue (growing 20%-30%+ Y/Y) - with 60%+ gross blended margins. Fabless semi companies with 60%+ gross margins typically trade at 4x–8x EV/Revenue and sector average valuations would be $493.5M, from $155m as a conservative base case. Just slight "AI/Robotics" Premium, could value it at $653.5M with 7 E/V (~320%+) TLDR: Found that this company likely got artificially suppressed because of a typo + ticker collision from false $82M inventory burn and is about to enter a newer higher margin + growth cycle from new verticals. I am taking advantage of a database collision error.
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建仓$OSS，认为其作为边缘AI国防承包商获实战验证，高毛利且被低估。
我建仓了 $OSS。 我通常不说这种话，但这只股票令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这给 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的长线机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Pure play Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因需求旺盛而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为其在美国军队中实际使用的证明： $OSS P-8 海神在委内瑞拉： - 飞行追踪数据证实，第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “抓捕小组”： - 抓捕领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用了海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团（直升机）。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境制造边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗追踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇（无人机船）封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军的“第59特遣队”（以及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。对于一家市值1.55亿美元的小公司而言。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 那样的大宗商品（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，当时看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或大宗商品卖家（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的专用防御AI纯标的，用于无人机群、幽灵舰队、USV等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，所以我建仓了。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $OSS. I usually never say this but, this one is exciting. Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor. And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that gave premiums to $AVAV and others. This looks like an unholy long to me: 1. $41M cash (pro forma ets.) / $155M MC (low downside risk). 2. Pure play Kinetic Defense 3. 1 : 2.4x supply/demand. (backlogged from high demand) 4. 45% gross margins. The main interest was Venezuela as proof they're actively being used in the US military: $OSS P-8 Poseidon in Venezuela: - Flight tracking data confirmed that P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol Squadron 40 (VP-40) were off the coast of Venezuela during the raid to monitor Venezuelan naval movements. OSS Link: On July 1 2025, OSS announced a $5M urgent order specifically to deliver "61 Rugged Data Units" for the P-8A Poseidon. SOCOM "Capture Team": - The raid to capture leadership was executed by US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), specifically using maritime insertion teams (likely SEALs/SWCC) and the 160th SOAR (helicopters). OSS Link: On May 29, 2025, OSS signed a (CRADA) directly with USSOCOM to build edge computers for Maritime Environments. OSS built the battle-tracking servers for the stealth boats used to slip into the Venezuelan coast. "Ghost Fleet" Blockade: - "Operation Southern Spear" is currently using unmanned surface vessels (drone boats) to block oil tankers. OSS Link: The Navy's "Task Force 59" (and the newer 4th Fleet equivalent) uses the $OSS Rigel Edge Supercomputer for these drones because it is one of the few AI servers small enough to fit on a 40-foot robot boat. This is literally combat validation in Venezuela. Of a small $155M stock. Before everyone treated this company as a commodity like $SMCI (myself included), but I completely missed that their defense vertical (which is pure-play now after the Bressner sale) has 45.6% gross margins. Only after I looked into it again after did I realize their other division was completely messing up margin calculations because of blended margins (from just re-selling defense gear). So now we have a: ~45% margins, AI military contractor valued at $155M business with $41m cash, with demand outstripping supply 2.4 to 1. I did an analysis later last year, which looked like $OSS was a supplier for Andruil or $PLTR, and was beginning their ramp up. Looking at it again post-sale, the 45% margin puts them into extremely stellar territory (compared to eg. Lockheed Martin, 12-14%) or commodity sellers (eg. $SMCI, $DELL 8-14%) This is a specialized war-validated defense AI pure-play for drone swarms, ghost fleets, USVs, and others, with extremely high margins, at $155M MC. I've found this to be an exciting re-discovery, so I've taken a position.
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博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
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$AIRO 现金充裕且属热门赛道，因收入递延被错杀，具备上行潜力。
从基金/垂直领域而非高管团队的角度来看待 $AIRO。例如，@chamath 直到获得 Groq 200 亿美元退出才摆脱负面评价；Saylor 直到 $MSTR 完成“劫案”式操作前只是个梗。这确实有很大影响，但并非全部。 就 $AIRO / $ONDS 而言，鉴于俄乌冲突、北约及国防部向无人机领域注资，该垂直领域应享有溢价（但 Airo 却像困境股一样交易）。 RQ-35 Heidrun 知识产权在无 GPS 环境中极具吸引力。但他们有大量如培训等杂项业务，只是支线任务。 类似 $SMCI，$AIRO 的暴跌也是由积压订单延迟导致（630 万美元 vs 2370 万美元的不及预期）。但 2000 万美元的无人机发货只是推迟而非取消。 净现金 6880 万美元，考虑到其 2.5 亿美元的小市值，这非常稳健。其企业价值/收入倍率为 2.1 倍，而 $AVAV 为 9.4 倍。我印象中 $ONDS 约为 20-30 倍。 总之：现金状况稳健，垂直领域具吸引力，下跌源于收入递延而非取消，低市值带来良好上行空间。 鉴于现金状况及仅属收入递延，它不应像困境股那样交易。
英文原文
Looking @ $AIRO from the fund/vertical not the exec team. For example, @chamath was frowned upon until he got that 20B Groq exit. Or Saylor was a meme until $MSTR pulled off a heist. It does make a large difference, but it's not everything. In terms of $AIRO / $ONDS, especially with Russia/Ukraine conflicts + NATO + DoD funneling money into drone segments, the vertical should command a premium (but Airo, trades like it's distressed). The RQ-35 Heidrun IP, seemed extremely interesting for GPS-denied environments. But they have a ton of misc companies like training that are just side quests. So similar to $SMCI, there was also backlog delays with caused the crash in Airo (the $6.3M vs $23.7M miss). But the $20m drone shipments was just shifted not cancelled. Net cash is $68.8M which is extremely solid given its mini $250m MC, and it trades at 2.1x EV to revenue, compared to others like $AVAV at 9.4x. I think $ONDS was like 20-30 off the top of my head. So TLDR: solid cash position, attractive vertical, drop based on differed revenue not cancelled, low market cap presents good upside. It shouldn't trade like a distressed company because of cash position + just deferred rev.
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SMCI估值具吸引力，毛利将恢复，适合波段交易。
当然，$SMCI 的市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG) < 0.5，而 $DELL 约为 1.2，尽管 SMCI 的增长速度快 4 倍。 营收同比增长 50%，近期主要下滑是由于积压订单从 Q1 推迟到 Q2，而非流失。他们甚至将营收预测从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 主要问题是毛利率压缩，我认为这是暂时性的，鉴于新的直接租赁(DLC)业务板块和获取新客户（随着规模扩大将提升毛利）。 我认为市场忽视了主权 AI，即其他国家依赖 $SMCI 等原始设备制造商(OEM)进行数据中心部署。其他国家（如马来西亚）可能会带来更高的毛利。 无论如何，低于 0.5 倍市销率(P/S)的 170 亿美元估值看起来很有吸引力。但大部分营收增长来自更昂贵组件的转售，因此需关注毛利率。 简而言之：市场定价反映了悲观情绪 + 会计问题。我认为 $SMCI 已度过会计问题，1 个季度的延迟影响不大 + 毛利应会恢复。因此股价应是很好的波段交易标的，尤其是交易在 1 年低点附近时。
英文原文
Sure, $SMCI trades at PEG <.5, compared to $DELL ~1.2 PEG, despite growing 4x faster. Revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, and the main drop recently was due to backlog delays from Q1 to Q2, not loss. They even increased revenue projections from $33B -> $36B. The main issue was gross margin compression, which I believe is transitory, just given new DLC segments and acquiring new customers (where it will increase at scale). I think markets are missing sovereign AI, where other countries rely on OEMs like $SMCI for DC deployments. And other countries. eg. Malaysia, would likely command higher margins too. Regardless $17B valuation for less than .5 P/S, seems pretty attractive. But a lot of the revenue increase is pass through from more expensive components, so gross margins are the things to watch. TLDR: Markets are pricing in doom and gloom + accounting issues. I believe $SMCI is past that accounting issues, and 1 quarter delay is not too material + margins should recover. So stock price should be a good swing trade especially as it trades near 1Y low.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.