$UPWK

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1. 2026-03-20 方法论 $UPWK$SIVE$NBIS

   说自己的 UPWK 逻辑在 Reddit 上花了很久才兑现，并认为短期价格波动常被人拿来挑错。

   谢谢！是啊，我的 $UPWK 逻辑大概是在 Reddit 上花最久时间才兑现的，哈哈。不过我觉得这些帖子从方向上通常还是对的，只是时间上不一定精确（我记得我 Reddit 的 PT 帖大概 11 个里对了 8 个左右吧，不是每次都准）。 很多人喜欢抓短期价格来挑错（比如今天 $SIVE 的下跌，或者 $NBIS 在可转债消息后的下跌）。但我觉得，我大多数 thesis 帖从长期来看还是正向兑现的。

   英文原文

   Thanks! Yeah my $UPWK thesis probably took the longest time to play out on Reddit haha, but I think they're usually right directionally over time (I remember being ~8 for 11 or something from my Reddit PT posts, don't always get them right). People like to cherry pick short term prices (eg. $SIVE drop today or $NBIS drop post convertible note) to say I'm wrong. But, think most of my thesis posts play out positively over the long run.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
2. 2026-03-02 杂谈 $GOOGL$UPWK

   博主感谢粉丝关注，回顾从发梗图到粉丝量激增的经历。

   谢谢！我的帖子能引起大家的阅读兴趣，这对我意义重大。 几个月前我开始发帖时，主要是给 Reddit 上的朋友们发梗图和 $UPWK 及 $GOOGL 的技术分析(TA)草图。 但我想其他人也觉得我的其他深度拆解很有洞察力，所以开始关注？从 9K 粉丝增长到今年接近 90K，这真的让我感到谦卑！

   英文原文

   Thank you! It really means a lot that my posts are interesting enough to read. When I first started posting a few months ago, was mainly to my Reddit friends for memes TA drawings like $UPWK and $GOOGL. But I guess other people found my other breakdowns insightful enough to tune in? It’s pretty humbling to go from 9K followers to close to 90K this year!

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
3. 2025-12-02 个股论点 $MSTR$NBIS$PYPL$SMCI$UBER$UPWK

   对比NBIS的高增长潜力与SMCI的估值修复机会。

   所以是不同的股票组合。我会这样解读： - $NBIS：高贝塔值，超高速增长，未来走向难料。潜在上行空间最大（核心业务同比增长700%，Robotaxi FSD部门等4家子公司同比增长100%+）。 例如，如果$UBER本月在德克萨斯州与Avride合作的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）发布顺利并扩展至其他地区，我们可能会看到该子公司估值大幅上升。 - $SMCI：盈利，估值修复带来中等回报（仍有~30-60%的回报空间）。同比增长60%，但远期市盈率仅为11倍，像$PYPL这样的零增长股或像$MSTR这样的困境资产。 对于SMCI，更多是看数据和行业，发现错配（例如$UPWK的价值投资逻辑）。

   英文原文

   So different basket of stocks. How I'd frame it is: - $NBIS: high-beta, hyper growth, who knows where it goes. Highest possible upside (700% Y/Y core business, 100%+ Y/Y across 4 subsidiaries like Robotaxi FSD division). For example if $UBER Texas robotaxi launch goes well with Avride this month and they expand elsewhere, we could see the subsidiary valuation rise a lot. - $SMCI: profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock eg. $PYPL / distressed asset like $MSTR. For SMCI it's more about looking at the numbers/sector and seeing a misalignment (eg. $UPWK value investing)

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
4. 2025-11-05 业绩复盘 $CAVA$CMG$FLY$HOOD$KRUS$LTC$SG$SNAP$UPWK$VIRT$WLAC

   博主复盘近期看错方向的高确信度标的，分析原因并重申长期逻辑。

   通常我在短期时间框架上会出错，但在任何高确信度的方向上我始终是正确的。 最近主要犯错的三个案例是：$LTC ETF 催化剂判断失误，即使获批后也从 $113 跌至 $82.5。这可能是最奇怪的事情之一，尽管政府停摆期间获批概率高达 95% 却遭遇延迟，随后又在停摆期间随机获批（连我都不知道），然后随大盘高贝塔抛售而暴跌。 另一个是 $SG，我认为它会从 $7.5-$8.3 反弹，但现在是 $6.3，消费品领域存在巨大的熊市。因此它受到了 $CMG、$CAVA、$KRUS 等抛售的影响。 最后一个是 $VIRT，尤其是现在市盈率仅为 7 或类似的荒谬水平。他们发布了财报，每股收益 $1.05 对比预期 $0.97-$1.04（超预期），营收 $4.67 亿对比预期 $4.184 亿-$4.497 亿（超预期），但依然被抛售。（这更多是一种非对称对冲），但即使基本面如此，我也不明白为什么它的市盈率约为 7.5。人们总说 X 是一只伟大的价值投资股票，交易市盈率约为 15，而这是个位数市盈率（但更受零售交易活动的周期性影响，不过 $HOOD 正在报告创纪录数据，所以应该是一个很好的代理指标）。 对我来说这仍然是一个极端的谜团……我认为它被低估了，尤其是考虑到回购，可能会成为另一个 $UPWK。 其他像核能 SPAC 之类我为了好玩买的，属于半赌博的迷因股，所以下跌更容易理解。通常如果我背后有论点支撑，那么准确率会更高。 像 $SNAP、$FLY 和其他一些我坚持是 2026 年布局的股票，短期并不重要。像 $WLAC 这类是 IPO 催化剂交易，所以在其低流通盘 SPAC 阶段的高贝塔波动在事件发生前意义不大。

   英文原文

   Usually only on short term time-frames I'm wrong but I've always been directionally right for anything higher conviction. Recently main three were I got wrong were the $LTC ETF catalyst wrong, even after approval it dropped from $113 -> $82.5. Probably one of the weirdest things since it got delayed even despite 95% approval odds from gov shutdown then randomly approved during shutdown (and even I didn't know about it). Then just tanked on broader market high beta sell offs. The other was $SG, thought it would rebound from $7.5-$8.3 or so but it's $6.3, there's a huge bear market on anything consumer. So it got affected by $CMG, $CAVA, $KRUS, etc. selloffs. The last was $VIRT, especially now with a p/e of 7 or something ridiculous. They reported earnings and $1.05 vs. $0.97 - $1.04 (beat) and $467.0 million revenue vs. $418.4 million - $449.7 million (beat), but still sold off. (This was more of an asymmetrical hedge) but even with fundamentals, I have no clue why it's ~7.5 P/E. People always are like X is a great value investor stock trading at ~15 P/E, this is single digit P/E (but more cyclical on retail trading activity, but $HOOD is reporting record numbers so should be a good proxy). Still an extreme enigma to me... I think it's undervalued, especially with buybacks and might be another $UPWK. Other stuff like nuclear SPACs I bought for fun were half-gambling memes so more understandable if they went down. Usually if I put a thesis behind it then it's more accurate. Stuff like $SNAP, $FLY, and others I've maintained was a 2026 play, so short term doesn't really matter. Things like $WLAC were IPO catalyst plays so high-beta movement during its low float SPAC days doesn't really mean much until the event happens.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
5. 2025-11-02 方法论 $AMZN$CRWV$MSFT$NBIS$UPWK

   AI工具在分析Neoclouds时存在缺陷，作者更倾向手动整合信息并采用估值建模。

   我发现像 @AskPerplexity、Grok 等 AI 工具在研究 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）和每日新闻频发的板块时，结果往往极不准确。它们会遗漏大量细节，例如 $NBIS 的白皮书中有关于与 $CRWV 等对比的利用率信息，这些数据对 AI 不可见（暗示了 GPU 利用率带来的毛利率增长）。当 Meta 与 $CRWV 达成 140 亿美元交易，且上周 $AMZN、$MSFT 等发布财报显示 AI 资本支出增加时，AI 可能会忽略那些未直接提及 $NBIS 但暗示超大规模云厂商交易增加的顺风因素。或者几天前的额外降息提振了涉及债务的 Neoclouds 的前瞻性盈利。亦或是关于 Clickhouse 等子公司或投资组合公司的新信息，AI 可能无法将其串联起来。FinX 散户在将这些信息拼凑成前瞻性增长方面做得更好，鉴于 AI/Neocloud 的总可寻址市场(TAM)具有高度投机性和快速增长，很难建模。这也是我采用估值方法的原因（在我之前关于 $NBIS 如何达到 1000 亿美元市值的帖子中），但如果看 $UPWK 等更标准的业务，我的估值建模方式则不同。

   英文原文

   I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day. They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization). When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals. Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with. FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is. That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
6. 2025-10-24 方法论 $BULL$UPWK

   反驳“当前价格已充分反映”观点，强调市场低效带来的套利机会。

   他们什么都没搞对。“当前价格已充分反映。”这完全是错的。 他在寻找超额收益的方向上是对的，但想用一些Instagram风格的励志语录。 如果当前价格总是被正确定价，就没人能通过利用市场低效来赚钱了。 不久前，由于市场未能正确定价，套利 $BULL 股票与认股权证就是白捡的钱。或者像 $UPWK 这样大量被错估的股票，以低于6.5倍的市盈率交易，却拥有庞大的现金资产负债表和增长。

   英文原文

   They didn't nail anything. "The present is already priced." This is literally wrong. He's correct directionally finding alpha, but wanted to use some Instagram style inspirational quote. If the present were always correctly priced, nobody would make money exploiting market inefficiencies. It was free money arbitraging $BULL shares vs. warrants not too long ago due to markets not pricing things in correctly. Or tons of misvalued equities like $UPWK trading way trading under 6.5 P/E with large cash balance sheets and growth.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
7. 2025-10-13 个股论点 $ALAB$AMZN$BKSY$BMNR$BULL$CIFR$COIN$CRCL$CRDO$CRWD$DELL$DKNG$ELOSE$ETH$ETOR$FLNC$FLY$GLXY$GOOGL$GRAB$HOOD$IBIT$IONQ$IREN$LTC$MARA$META$MP$MRVL$MU$NBIS$NET$NVDA$NVO$OKLO$PL$PLTR$QBTS$QUBT$RBRK$RGTI$RIOT$RKLB$RR$SEI$SG$SMCI$SNAP$TGT$TSM$UNH$UPWK$WLAC$WULF

   分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。

   所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。

   英文原文

   So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
8. 2025-10-11 个股论点 $ALAB$AMZN$AWS$BITF$BKSY$BMNR$BULL$CIFR$CLSK$COIN$CRCL$CRDO$CRWV$DELL$DKNG$ELOSE$ETH$ETOR$FLNC$FLY$GLXY$GOOGL$GRAB$GRRR$HOOD$HUT$IBIT$IONQ$IREN$LTC$MARA$META$MP$MRVL$MSFT$MU$NBIS$NOSS$NVDA$NVO$OKLO$PAYPAL$PL$PLTR$QBTS$QUBT$RBRK$RGTI$RIOT$RKLB$RR$SEI$SG$SLNH$SMCI$SNAP$SPY$TEMU$TGT$TSLA$TSM$UNH$UPWK$WLAC$WULF$WYFI

   基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。

   基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。

   英文原文

   Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
9. 2025-10-08 业绩复盘 $AMD$AMZN$ASTS$BITF$BKKT$BTC$COIN$CRDO$CRWV$DAVE$DFLI$DLFI$DLO$ETOR$FLNC$FLY$FOUR$GRAB$GRRR$HIMS$HOOD$INTC$IREN$LTC$LULU$MELI$META$MP$MRVL$MU$NBIS$NFE$NVO$ONDS$ORCL$RKLB$SEI$SG$SMCI$SNAP$TGT$TSM$TSSI$UNH$UPWK$WLAC

   博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。

   哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。

   英文原文

   Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
10. 2025-10-07 方法论 $AMD$AMZN$ASTS$BITF$BKKT$BTC$COIN$CRDO$CRWV$DAVE$DLO$ETOR$FOUR$GRAB$GRRR$HIMS$HOOD$INTC$IREN$LTC$LULU$MELI$META$MP$MRVL$NBIS$NFE$NVO$ONDS$ORCL$RKLB$SG$SMCI$SNAP$TGT$TSM$TSSI$UNH$UPWK

    博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。

    @DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）

    英文原文

    @DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
11. 2025-09-30 方法论 $ALAB$AMZN$ASTS$BMNR$CIFR$CRCL$CRDO$CRED$CRM$CRWV$ETOR$GRAB$HIMS$HOOD$IBIT$IONQ$IREN$LTC$LULU$MARA$MRVL$MSTR$NBIS$NVDA$NVO$OKLO$ORCL$PLTR$PYPL$QBTS$RDDT$RIOT$RKLB$SG$SLNH$SMCI$SNAP$SOFI$TGT$TSLA$TSM$UPWK$VIRT

    博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。

    最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。

    英文原文

    Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
12. 2025-09-29 个股论点 $ALAB$AMZN$ASTS$AVGO$BMNR$BULL$CIFR$CRCL$CRDO$CRM$ETH$ETOR$GOOGL$GRAB$HIMS$HOOD$IBIT$IBKR$IONQ$IREN$LTC$LULU$MARA$MRVL$MSTR$NBIS$NVDA$NVO$OKLO$ORCL$PLTR$PYPL$QBTS$RDDT$RIOT$RKLB$SG$SLNH$SMCI$SOFI$TGT$TSLA$TSM$UPWK$VIRT

    博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。

    周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。

    英文原文

    Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
13. 2025-09-29 个股论点 $UPWK$VIRT

    UPWK估值极佳，VIRT潜力较小需看期权。

    @mattscottcap 是的，$UPWK 在 20 美元时依然具有极佳的估值，但 13 美元时感觉被极度低估。我现在对 $VIRT 也有类似的感觉，但除非你接触期权，否则其上涨潜力要小得多。

    英文原文

    @mattscottcap Yeah $UPWK is still great value at $20 but $13 just felt extremely undervalued. Feel something similar about $VIRT now, but upside potential is a lot less unless you touch options. https://t.co/ZzF4IlJXdf

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
14. 2025-09-27 个股论点 $LULU$NBIS$NVO$PYPL$RKLB$TGT$TSM$UNH$UPWK

    博主区分成长与价值投资，推荐不同周期的个股组合。

    @DeepIceValue 哈哈，我看到了 $NVO 和 $UNH，然后看了你的主页，意识到你更偏向价值投资(Value Investing)。如果让我选，1-2 年周期我会选 $NBIS 或 $TSM。3 年周期我会选 $RKLB。价值投资组合(Value Investing Basket)会是：$TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO。

    英文原文

    @DeepIceValue lol I saw NVO and UNH and then looked at your profile and realized it was more so value investing. If I had to choose, would be $NBIS or $TSM 1-2 years. Then $RKLB for a 3 year timeframe. Value investing basket would be: $TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
15. 2025-09-27 个股论点 $ALAB$BITF$CIFR$CLSK$CRDO$CRWV$GOOGL$GRRR$HOOD$HUT$IREN$MARA$MSFT$NBIS$NVDA$RIOT$SLNH$TSLA$TSM$UPWK$WULF$WYFI

    解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。

    NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。

    英文原文

    The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
16. 2025-09-25 业绩复盘 $AMD$AMZN$ASTS$BITF$BKKT$BTC$CIFR$COIN$CRDO$CRWV$DAVE$DLO$ETOR$FOUR$GOOGL$GRAB$GRRR$HIMS$HOOD$INTC$IREN$LTC$LULU$MELI$META$MP$MRVL$NBIS$NFE$NVO$ONDS$ORCL$RKLB$SG$SMCI$SNAP$TGT$TSM$TSSI$UNH$UPWK$Z

    分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。

    9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。

    英文原文

    So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
17. 2025-09-25 业绩复盘 $ETH$HIMS$UPWK

    博主回顾交易表现，强调基于独立研究无需依赖粉丝资金。

    @moonman6577 谢谢！是的，$UPWK 确实花了一个月，但最终涨幅超过 45%。 我通常方向判断正确，但有时时机会稍差一点。不过很多时候我也判断得很准，比如 $HIMS 或 $ETH。 我不需要粉丝带来的资金，因为我基于自己的独立研究(DD)进行交易，且行之有效。

    英文原文

    @moonman6577 Thanks! Yeah $UPWK did take a month, but ended up being 45%+. I'm usually directionally correct but sometimes get timing off a bit. A lot of other times I got it spot on lol like with $HIMS or $ETH tho I wouldn't need follower $ because I trade on my own DD and it works

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
18. 2025-09-24 个股论点 $AMD$AMZN$ASTS$BITF$BKKT$BTC$COIN$CRDO$CRWV$DAVE$DLO$ETOR$FOUR$GRAB$GRRR$HIMS$HOOD$INTC$IREN$LTC$LULU$MELI$META$MP$MRVL$NBIS$NFE$NVO$ONDS$ORCL$RKLB$SG$SMCI$SNAP$TGT$TSM$TSSI$UNH$UPWK

    博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。

    我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR

    英文原文

    I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
19. 2025-09-24 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK 17 美元减仓，看好 22-25 美元区间及长期持有价值。

    @h20kita 我最终在 $UPWK 约 17 美元时减仓，随后保留了少量头寸。考虑到 H1B 签证增加自由职业者招聘、超 1 亿美元回购，以及作为指数成分股受益于三次降息（可能明年还有五次），22-25 美元的价格是合理的。不过，持有 1 年以获取长期资本利得也是不错的选择。

    英文原文

    @h20kita I ended up trimming $UPWK around $17, then held a tiny bit. $22-25 is good given H1B increasing freelance hiring, $100m+ buyback and Russell going up from triple rate cuts (part of index) and possibly 5 going into next year. Good to hold 1y for long term capital gain though

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
20. 2025-09-24 业绩复盘 $HOOD$NBIS$UPWK

    博主展示630%年化收益，强调公开分享分析以助人。

    人们常问，当我全对时会发生什么： 1年回报率：630.44% 📈 我只是真心想要提供帮助！ 在任何上涨行情之前，我都会公开分享我对 $NBIS 到 $HOOD 再到 $UPWK 的分析与持仓。 欢迎查看我在 X 或 Reddit 上的历史记录。https://t.co/2JGib55O0r

    英文原文

    People often ask what happens when I get everything right: 1 Year Return: 630.44% 📈 Just genuinely want to help! I share my analysis and positions openly from $NBIS to $HOOD to $UPWK before any rally. Feel free to look through my history on X or Reddit. https://t.co/2JGib55O0r

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
21. 2025-09-23 个股论点 $IREN$NBIS$UPWK

    承认 $IREN 判断正确，但表示目前坚定看好 $NBIS。

    @SCurveCapital 是的，你对 $IREN 的判断是对的，恭喜。当我们在 $12 美元持有 $UPWK 时，我买入了 1 股 $IREN，它的涨幅非常巨大。 不过我现在是坚定的 $NBIS 列车乘客（看好 $NBIS）。

    英文原文

    @SCurveCapital Yeah you were right about $IREN, congrats. I bought 1 share when we were holding $UPWK back at $12 and it was up an enormous amount. I'm on the $NBIS train though.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
22. 2025-09-22 方法论 $UPWK

    投资核心在于发现市场错误定价，具体决策需自行研判。

    没问题！不过，最大的获利机会在于你认为市场错误定价了某样东西，而你对此持有坚定的相反信念。比如对我来说，当 $UPWK 的市盈率(P/E)仅为7或更低时，市场就低估了它。由于财务报表可能非常复杂，我了解得不够多，无法给你确切答案，这需要你自己决定。

    英文原文

    No problem! The most money to be made though is if you think the market prices something wrong and you have conviction otherwise. Like for me market was underpricing $UPWK when it was a p/e of 7 or something low. I don't know enough to give you an answer since financials are probably really complicated, that's for you to decide.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
23. 2025-09-22 个股论点 $GAP$LULU$TGT$UNH$UPWK

    看好GAP季节性机会，关注宏观关税对价值持仓的影响。

    @AndyA143597 对于 $GAP，我确实看好它，我个人也喜欢 Banana Republic。此时正值季节性利好期，该股也会从中受益。 $UPWK、$TGT、$UNH、$LULU 是我价值投资组合中的持仓，但我需要进一步观察，看看宏观环境或关税是否会产生实质性影响。

    英文原文

    @AndyA143597 For $GAP, I do like it and I like Banana Republic personally. It's a stock that benefits from seasonality around this time too. $UPWK, $TGT, $UNH, $LULU were value investing port holders but I'll need to look more to see if there's any material impact from macro/tarrifs.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
24. 2025-09-19 业绩复盘 $HIMS$OSCR$UPWK

    回顾UPWK、HIMS和OSCR的交易点位与表现

    @DanielTan64198 太棒了！如果你还在持有，$UPWK 可能已经上涨了 50%+。$HIMS 我在大约 $25 时推荐过，后来在 $48 时又推荐了一次。 $OSCR 是一笔我曾在 $14 左右发布的波段交易，在 $22 卖出会是个不错的选择，但很高兴听到你做得很好。

    英文原文

    @DanielTan64198 Nice! $UPWK was probably 50%+ if you're still holding. $HIMS I called out at like $25 and again at $48. $OSCR was a swing trade I think I posted at $14 and a good sell would have been $22 but glad to hear you're doing well

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
25. 2025-09-18 个股论点 $PLMR$UPWK

    PLMR虽稳健，但降息致利息收入受损，难享高负债小盘股红利。

    @MMerrino569447 我通常不投资小盘股，但我们得到了三次降息预期。所以这纯粹是一笔宏观交易.. $PLMR 看起来像 $UPWK 一样稳健。但三次降息会损害它们的利息收入，因此它无法像其他高负债小盘股那样受益。

    英文原文

    @MMerrino569447 I don't normally invest in small caps but we got the triple rate cut projection. So this is purely a macro trade.. $PLMR looks solid like $UPWK. But triple rate cut hurts them because of lower investment income, so it doesn't get the benefit like other heavy-debt small caps.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
26. 2025-09-17 个股论点 $HOOD$IREN$RKLB$UPWK

    调侃持仓数量，建议长期持有RKLB对标SpaceX。

    @vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN，要是算上这些，我就有16、17、18只持仓了，哈哈。至于 $RKLB，就拿着它5-8年吧，总有一天市值会像 SpaceX 一样达到3500亿美元。

    英文原文

    @vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol. For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
27. 2025-09-16 个股论点 $ETOR$GOOGL$IBKR$UPWK

    作者类比UPWK，认为ETOR低市值高增长被市场错杀。

    回顾我的历史，我通常在底部买入，比如 $GOOGL，或在短期底部买入，比如当所有人都认为公司会失败时的 $UPWK。 $ETOR 类似于 $UPWK，拥有大量现金头寸且盈利。但它正以 $IBKR 20%+ 的年增长率增长，而市值却极低。 有时很难逆着市场情绪交易，但我认为市场对此定价错误。

    英文原文

    If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap. Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
28. 2025-09-14 业绩复盘 $ETH$GOOGL$HIMS$OSCR$RDDT$RKLB$UPWK

    博主晒出多只股票交易成功案例，展示其交易记录以证明实力。

    喜欢看大家晒盈利截图。看看我的 $RDDT 发帖历史——到目前为止，我分享的每一次突破都成功了：$GOOGL、2倍杠杆的 $HIMS、$ETH、$UPWK、$RKLB、$OSCR 都中了。去 X/Reddit 上翻翻我的历史记录，亲自看看。我是 X 的新人，但暂时在这里帮助大家学习交易。

    英文原文

    Love seeing people post profits. Check my $RDDT post history—so far, every breakout I’ve shared from $GOOGL, 2x $HIMS, $ETH, $UPWK, $RKLB, $OSCR has hit Scroll through my history on X/Reddit and see for yourself. I’m new to X but here temporarily to help people learn to trade

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
29. 2025-09-12 个股论点 $HIMS$UPWK

    建议同时持有UPWK和HIMS，前者避税，后者博反弹。

    @mattia030339 我会说两个都做，除非你的仓位已满。$UPWK 自从我发帖以来涨了很多，所以可能最好持有它以获得长期资本利得税优惠。否则，$HIMS 由于42%的做空比例，如果在回调时能买入，可能在近中期有更大的潜力。

    英文原文

    @mattia030339 I’d say do both unless you’re full port. $UPWK went up a ton since i posted so might be a good idea to just get long term capital gains tax on it. Otherwise $HIMS probably has more potential near/mid term cause of 42% short interest, if you can catch it on a dip.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
30. 2025-09-10 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK 16美元仍低估，减仓留底仓，目标价20-25美元。

    我在 $UPWK 16.5-17 美元附近减仓，但保留部分仓位，以防回购+收购将其推升至 20-25 美元。 在 11-14 美元时它被完全低估。在 16 美元时它仍然被低估。 我会将合理价值目标价(PT)定为 20 美元，如果收购/现有产品增加远期营收，或者如果运营利润率提高，则定为 25 美元。无论如何，持有股票并在不确定时卖出看涨期权(CC)总是一个好主意。

    英文原文

    I trimmed $UPWK around $16.5-$17 and kept some in case buybacks + acquisitions take it to $20-25. At $11-14 it was completely undervalued. At $16 it's still undervalued. I'd put it $20 fair value PT and $25 if acquisitions/existing product increase forward rev. Or if operating margins increase. Either way, holding it and selling CC's if you're unsure is always a good idea.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
31. 2025-09-05 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK 估值极低，靠提利润率和回购可涨至 25 美元。

    @triforcerytp 人们转向自由职业(freelancing)，这很积极，除非发生严重衰退。即使营收下降，$UPWK 只需提高利润率即可。其股票被严重低估，管理层只需削减冗余(bloat)即可达到 25 美元。1 亿美元的回购也有帮助。

    英文原文

    @triforcerytp People turn to freelancing, so positive, unless it’s a major recession. Even if revenue drops, $UPWK just needs to increase profit margins. Their stock is incredibly undervalued and all management needs to do is cut out bloat to reach $25. $100m in buybacks helps too.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
32. 2025-09-03 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK低于20美元极具吸引力，建议等待或观察其收购进展。

    @DanielTan64198 $UPWK 低于 $20 时强烈暗示买入。$25 似乎估值合理，市盈率约 14 倍。 谁知道未来某天会不会涨到 $75 呢。Upwork 盈利能力极强，且坐拥大量现金储备，所以如果你是投资者，不妨静观其变，看看他们的收购进展如何。否则我会建议等到 $20 以上再考虑。

    英文原文

    @DanielTan64198 $UPWK under $20 is screaming buy. $25 seems fair valued ~14 p/e. Could end up at $75 one day who knows. Upwork is extremely profitable and is just sitting on a cash pile, so if you're an investor just wait and see how their acquisitions go. Otherwise I'd wait to $20+

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
33. 2025-09-03 个股论点 $CRWV$GOOGL$HIMS$IREN$NVO$RKLB$UNH$UPWK$WULF

    UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。

    $UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。

    英文原文

    $UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
34. 2025-08-31 个股论点 $BKKT$BMBL$CREDO$CRWV$DJT$HIMS$RKLB$TSSI$UPWK

    博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。

    基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？

    英文原文

    My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
35. 2025-08-25 方法论 $COIN$CRCL$DUOL$GOOGL$HOOD$KSPI$MRVL$MSTR$NVDA$NVO$PLTR$SG$SNAP$TSLA$UNH$UPWK

    建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。

    一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。

    英文原文

    Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
36. 2025-08-23 个股论点 $GOOGL$NVO$UNH$UPWK

    UPWK估值极低且期权信号积极，是极具吸引力的价值投资标的。

    $UPWK 是最安全的价值投资标的，甚至优于 $UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL 等。做市商清洗了 Upwork 8月15日到期的看涨期权未平仓合约，目前股价正在反弹，理应高于 $17.5+。一家年营收 7.7 亿美元、毛利率约 80% 的 18 亿美元软件公司，几乎是白送的钱。

    英文原文

    $UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others. Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+. A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
37. 2025-08-06 个股论点 $UPWK

    建议持有UPWK至17-23美元，认为当前卖出不明智。

    @Alan_24z 在股价交易于 $17-23 之前，这是一个容易且低风险的持有标的。由于有大量的未平仓合约将在8天后到期，预计会出现做空/伽马对冲行为。 $UPWK 利润率高、利润率在增长、现金状况强劲，且刚刚上调了指引，因此在 $13-$14 卖出是愚蠢的。

    英文原文

    @Alan_24z It's an easy low-risk hold until it trades $17-23. There's too much open interest expiring in 8 days so expect shorting/gamma hedging. $UPWK is high profitable, growing margins, strong cash position and just raised guidance so selling at $13-$14 is stupid.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
38. 2025-08-06 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK 财报后扩利成功，估值偏低有望重估。

    $UPWK 在今天财报发布后，加上空头头寸/分析师上调评级，将会进行一些重新定价。 他们所需要做的只是在其 78% 的毛利率基础上扩大营业利润率，而他们做到了。 一家市值 15 亿美元的公司，实现 7.7 亿美元财年营收，营业利润率增长，且拥有强劲的现金头寸。

    英文原文

    $UPWK is will do some repricing after earnings today + short interest/analyst upgrades. All they needed to do was expand operating margins on their 78% gross margins and they did. 1.5B company doing 770m FY revenue, growing operating margins, and a strong cash position.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
39. 2025-07-21 个股论点 $UPWK

    Upwork 若借 AI 提升利润率，估值有望从 17 亿升至 69 亿。

    如果 Upwork 能通过成本削减 + AI 自动化，将经常性收入的运营利润率从 20% 提升至 40–60%……那么运营利润为 7.7 亿美元 x 60% = 4.62 亿美元。按适度的 15 倍 EBIT 倍数计算，估值为 69 亿美元。对比今日 17 亿美元的市场规模，潜在上涨空间为 3–4 倍。

    英文原文

    If Upwork can scale operating margins from 20% → 40–60% on recurring revenue from cost-cutting + AI automations.. That’s $770M x 60% = $462M operating income. At a modest 15x EBIT multiple, that's a $6.9B valuation. VS today's $1.7B market cap, that’s a potential 3–4x upside.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
40. 2025-07-21 个股论点 $UPWK

    分析$UPWK低估值高现金流优势，强调利润率扩张逻辑。

    所以，关于 Upwork 的长期投资逻辑： $UPWK 目前市盈率(P/E)为 7.5 倍，年营收约 7.7 亿美元，毛利率 78%，现金储备 6.22 亿美元——然而其市值仅为 17.4 亿美元。 当可以通过扩大运营利润率来扩张时，谁还在乎营收增长？

    英文原文

    So for the long term play on Upwork: $UPWK is trading at a 7.5 P/E with ~$770M in annual revenue, 78% gross margins, and $622M in cash — yet its market cap is only $1.74B. Who cares about revenue growth when they can just scale operating margins?

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
41. 2025-07-02 个股论点 $UPWK

    博主基于技术分析看好Upwork突破17美元并建仓。

    因此，我认为 Upwork 将突破 $17+，并买入了一定数量。这对于任何像我这样拥有博士学位的人来说，图表的技术分析(TA)都完全展示了这一点。

    英文原文

    For that reason I believe Upwork will breakout $17+ and bought a decent amount. This is fully shown in the TA of the chart for anyone with a PHD such as myself.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
42. 2025-07-02 个股论点 $NARU$UPWK

    暗示$NARU/$UPWK即将迎来重大利好转折。

    这意味着，$NARU/$UPWK 在接下来的几周和几个月里即将拥有严重的“剧情护甲”(Plot Armor)。 你知道接下来会发生什么。鸣人遇见纲手。动画里没演，但有一个弹跳式的登场和查克拉按摩。鸣人的故事迎来了大团圆结局。

    英文原文

    Which means, Naruto/UPWK is about to have some serious plot armor in the upcoming weeks and months. You know what comes next. Naruto meets Tsunade. They didn't show this in the show but there's a bouncy entrance and the Chakara Massage. There's a happy ending to Naruto.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
43. 2025-07-02 个股论点 $UPWK

    UPWK暴跌后图表形态暗示反弹在即，类比火影忍者剧情。

    所以，就像往常一样，在‘木叶村’被毁后，$UPWK 需要进行重建。一根巨大的暴跌K线（dump candle）如同‘佩恩’本人般袭来。但他们没看到的是……图表正需要这一跌。‘鸣人’已登场。你可以看到他的发际线正在图表中形成。

    英文原文

    So as usual with the destruction of the hidden leaf village, UPWK had some rebuilding to do. A massive dump candle hits like Pain himself. But what they don’t see… is that the chart needed this. Naruto HAS ARRIVED. You can see his hairline being formed in the chart.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
44. 2025-07-02 个股论点 $UPWK

    博主基于九尾狐技术形态买入15万美元UPWK。

    为什么我购买了价值15万美元的$UPWK。 这是UPWORK（$UPWK）以及我购买15万美元以上股份的原因解释。 起初，你看到的看起来像一只猫(CAT)。它从两只耳朵开始。看起来像猫对吧？ 错了。这是九尾狐(NINE TAILED FOX)形态，不仅仅是任何一只猫。 https://t.co/BUYY3BncTs

    英文原文

    Why I bought $150k in $UPWK. Here is UPWORK, UPWK and my explanation on why I bought $150k+ in shares. At first, you see what looks like a CAT. It starts off with the two ears. Looks like a cat right? Wrong. This is the NINE TAILED FOX Pattern, not just any cat. https://t.co/BUYY3BncTs

    详情页 → 原推 ↗