· 个股论点
涉及标的： $COST$EWY$GOOGL$LMT$NOC$TSM
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.