$KLA
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Auros是三星/SK海力士供应商，受益于HBM4混合键合计量和薄膜厚度测量两大产品线的量产增长。
所以我确实认为Auros (322310)在韩国是一家市值2.69亿美元、非常有趣的公司。 我从研究中发现，他们是一家相对不知名的三星/SK海力士供应商。 而且他们应该会从HBM4资本支出的混合键合计量(Hybrid Bonding Metrology)中获得高产量增长。 基本上是纯粹专注于两种产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，之前$KLA在红外(IR)计量领域拥有垄断地位。 ---> 现在可能在三星工厂获得资格，下半年产能增长预计。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时也可能获得资格。 关于SK海氨酸的注意事项：我以为会是HBM4e，但显然Trendforce今天报道SK海力士已完成12层混合键合HBM验证，并正在提高量产良率。所以除了三星之外，可能还有一个催化剂。 -> 薄膜厚度测量(Thin-film thickness measurement)。 ---> 现在正在获得资格，与"主要国内芯片制造商"(可能是三星/SK海力士)合作，目标是今年实现批量供应。 免责声明(我持有仓位，不构成投资建议，请自己做尽职调查，这只是我的思考过程) 无论如何，他们在过去十年一直在开发，终于要从多年资格认证中将两种核心产品投入量产，可能是今年下半年。存在风险，例如不进入大批量生产(HVM)，但我个人承担这个风险。 所以我发现这家公司非常有趣，只是想分享一些关于这家公司的想法。
英文原文
So I do think Auros (322310) is very interesting at $269M MC over in Korea. What I've found from research was that they're a relatively unknown Samsung / SK Hynix supplier. And they should high volume ramp from HBM4 capex for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. Note on SK Hynix: I thought it would be HBM4e but apparently Trendforce reported today SK Hynix has completed 12-high hybrid bonding HBM validation and is raising yields for mass production. So maybe there's a catalyst there too aside from Samsung. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (likely Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. Disclosure (I do have positions, NFA, please do your own DD, this is just my thought process) Regardless, they've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two core products from years of qualification likely H2 this year. There are risks involved, such as not proceeding to HVM, but I'm personally taking that risk. So I found this company very interesting, just wanted to publish some thoughts on this company.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.